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15 Dec 23. Argentina’s new president seeks stronger military amid fiscal troubles. Argentina’s new president promised on the campaign trail to modernize the country’s defense force, but experts question whether this is possible given the fiscally harsh environment in which the government finds itself.
“It is very doubtful, actually unlikely, that the Ministry of Defense is going to receive the funding it needs to modernize and upgrade the capabilities of the military forces. The new government will soon come under the pressure and funding demands from other public sectors more important to voters, which will be impossible to ignore,” retired Argentine Army Col. Guillermo Lafferriere, an independent analyst based in Buenos Aires, told Defense News.
Indeed, during his Dec. 10 inauguration, President Javier Milei told the public to prepare for a painful shock adjustment with drastic public spending cuts. He has since appointed a new defense minister, Luis Petri, who worked as a lawyer and has security experience.
The president also brought on Patricia Bullrich, a longtime politician and first-round adversary from the coalition with the second most seats, as security minister. She held that same position during the administration of President Mauricio Macri, which lasted from 2015 to 2019, and is a staunch defender of military involvement in internal security.
During his campaign, Milei promised to modernize Argentina’s defense by improving military equipment and infrastructure, strengthening training, and adopting new technological and operational capabilities.
He also said his administration would review and update the country’s defense policy to better reflect the geopolitical environment. Milei has noted one focus of the new policy is to increase international collaboration to bolster Argentina’s relations with the United States and other Western nations.
And the new defense minister expressed an interest in sending Ukraine two Russian-made Mil Mi-17 helicopters currently in the Argentine Air Force’s inventory — another signal the nation is leaning Westward.
Lafferriere agreed the government should focus on improving the military, but warned a policy change will be a “tall challenge.”
“After several decades of being politically and financially neglected, the Argentine armed forces need not only to be reequipped but also to be reconverted. As they have fallen behind, their doctrine, organization and deployment are all today obsolete,” Lafferriere said. “The first step should be to make a deep review and update of the national defense policy. But I cannot see that the new government has the will to tackle such tall challenge, which has been avoided before by successive governments since the 1990s.”
But funding is also a problem, according to Sergio Eissa, the national training director at the Defense Ministry and a professor at the National Defense University in Buenos Aires. Eissa told Defense News that, after lawmakers rejected the previous government’s proposed budget for fiscal 2024, the new administration will likely have to use funding levels from fiscal 2023.
“The problem is that if the amount approved for 2023 is used, its real value will be a lot lower than it was in that year as a result of high inflation,” Eissa explained. “Before any modernization and development of military capabilities is undertaken, there is a need to revise the national policy of defense, to define the kind of armed forces and military capacities Argentina needs from now and toward the future. That must be the first step.” (Source: Defense News)
16 Dec 23. US, South Korea to draw up joint nuclear defence guideline against North Korean threat. The United States and South Korea plan to draw up joint guidelines on nuclear defence strategy by the middle of next year and establish an integrated system to deter North Korea’s nuclear weapons, Yonhap news agency said on Saturday.
Washington and Seoul have decided to complete a comprehensive guideline by next year on how to contain and respond to Pyongyang’s nuclear threat together, Yonhap reported, citing Kim Tae-hyo, South Korea’s deputy national security adviser speaking to reporters in the U.S.
The guideline is expected to include methods of sharing sensitive information related to North Korea’s nuclear weapons, the consultation process in the event of a nuclear crisis, and real-time communication channels between the two countries’ leaders, it said.
The U.S. and South Korea are also expected to include nuclear operation exercises in next year’s joint military drills, Yonhap said.
North Korea may test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) this month, which is a nuclear threat regardless of its range because it can carry a nuclear warhead, Kim had said on Friday.
North Korea has developed and tested a range of ballistic missiles that can reach targets in South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. mainland. (Source: Reuters)
15 Dec 23. Ukroboronprom Reported on the Construction of Anti-Corruption Infrastructure in 2023. As part of its well-publicized anti-corruption drive, Ukraine’s defense industry holding company, Ukroboronprom, on Thursday publicly reported on the measures it is taking to prevent corruption to allies, NATO and a number of NGOs. (UBP photo)
JSC “Ukrainian Defense Industry” has implemented or continues to implement 68% of the measures to implement the recommendations to eliminate corruption risks, which were provided by experts of the NAKC and non-governmental specialized institutions. This, as well as the results of the UOP’s work on preventing and combating corruption in the 3-4 quarters of the current year, were discussed during a public discussion held on December 13.
Representatives of the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, the NATO Liaison Office (NLO), NAKC, StateWatch, Supporting Adaptive Defense Reforms (SADR), heads of the UOP and its enterprises took part in the event dedicated to the International Anti-Corruption Day.
Director of the Department for Compliance and Risk Management of Ukroboronprom, Olena Kovalyova, spoke about the results achieved in the second half of the year. In particular, it was about the creation of a long-term anti-corruption policy, the development of the institution of commissioners for the prevention of corruption by ensuring their independence, the standardization of the profession and the definition of target performance indicators, as well as the formation of a culture of integrity based on the Tone at the top principle. Tone at the top is a common practice in leading global arms companies, when the leader sets the tone and demonstrates commitment to global standards of integrity.
Also at the event, the presentation and discussion of the Consolidated Report on the updated external assessment of corruption risks in the activities of the UOP and its enterprises by NAKC, StateWatch and NGO “Together against corruption” took place. In the future, the employees of Ukroboronprom and enterprises discussed the requirements and standards of the procurement processes of NATO countries with the special guest of the event – procurement specialist of the Ministry of Defense of Canada, Peter Mulroney.
“The joint-stock company “Ukrainian Defense Industry” supported the UN trend for the International Anti-Corruption Day and publicly reported on the state of implementation of plans to prevent and combat corruption, – Olena Kovalyova notes a>. – Only through cooperation and involvement of everyone can we overcome the negative impact of corruption and develop measures to prevent it. Governments, civil servants, law enforcement and media workers, the private sector, civil society, academia, the public and youth — all must work together to combat corruption in the defense-industrial complex.” (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/Ukroboronprom)
15 Dec 23. Korean peninsula: Warning of potential North Korean ICBM launch will raise regional tensions. On 14 December, Kim Tae-hyo, the principal deputy director of the presidential National Security Office in South Korea, stated that: ‘it is possible North Korea will launch an ICBM in December’. This comes ahead of Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) talks between South Korea and the US in Washington DC on 15 December. North Korea has reportedly conducted 12 ICBM tests since February 2022, though some were unsuccessful. The most recent launch was in July; on this occasion, the projectile landed in the waters to the east of the Korean peninsula. Kim did not disclose a reason for the warning, but recent rhetoric by senior officials in North Korea suggests that there is a realistic possibility of a full ICBM launch in the coming months. Such an event would raise regional tensions and likely precipitate retaliatory shows of strength by the US and South Korea, such as military drills. Security risks facing shipping and business assets in such a scenario would remain minimal. There would be a realistic possibility of temporary disruption, such as shelter alerts in northern Japan, if a missile were launched over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Dec 23. New Iranian sanction regime comes into force. The UK’s new Iran sanctions regime comes into force today, giving the UK extensive new powers to hold Iran and its decision makers to account.
- New sanctions regime gives UK extensive new powers to disrupt Iran’s hostile activities in the UK and around the world
- Sanctions will target Iran’s decision makers and those doing its bidding, with the regime also including new restrictions on Iran’s drone programme and shipping
- In coordination with the US, first sanctions package under new regime targets the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and individuals linked to Iran’s relationship with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad
The UK’s new Iran sanctions regime comes into force today, giving the UK extensive new powers to hold Iran and its decision makers to account.
Announced in July, the sanctions regime has been developed to respond to unprecedented threats from the Iranian regime, including efforts to undermine peace and security across the Middle East and plots to kill individuals on UK soil.
The new regime also includes new trade restrictions targeting Iran’s drone programme, including by strengthening our existing export restrictions on drone components, as well as new powers to impose transport sanctions on ships involved in contravening existing sanctions or owned or controlled by sanctioned individuals.
Foreign Secretary David Cameron said:
The behaviour of the Iranian regime poses an unacceptable threat to the UK and our partners.
It continues to threaten people on UK soil and uses its influence to destabilise the Middle East through its support to armed groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The UK’s new Iran sanctions regime gives us extensive new powers to tackle this appalling behaviour. Today’s designations send a clear message to the regime we will hold you to account for your actions.
In co-ordination with the United States, the UK has also announced the first set of designations under this new regime, targeting Iran’s support for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The first set of UK designations includes Esmail Qaani, who heads Iran’s notorious IRGC Quds Force, which leads Iran’s operations outside the country and provides support to regional partners and proxy groups.
A further seven individuals and one entity, all with links to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, are designated today.
Those being sanctioned by the UK today were targeted for their involvement in hostile activity by an armed group, backed by the Government of Iran, consisting of activity being threatening, planning or conducting intent to cause the destabilisation of Israel.
The individuals that are subject to UK travel bans and asset freezes include:
- Esmail Qaani: The Head of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF)
- Mohammed Saeed Izadi: The Head of IRGC-QF Palestine Branch; and Head, Abu Jihad Foreign Operations Unit
- Ali Marshad Shirazi: A member of IRGC-QF Palestine Branch
- Majid Zaree: A member of IRGC-QF Palestine Branch
- Mostafa Majid Khani: A member of IRGC-QF Palestine Branch
- Khaled Qaddoumi: A Hamas Representative to Iran
- Nasser Abu Sharif: A Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Representative to Iran
The following entity is also being sanctioned by the UK and is subject to asset freezes:
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) Palestine Branch
To date, the UK has more than 350 sanctions designations in place on Iranian individuals and entities in response to the regime’s human rights violations and malign influence internationally.
Since the start of 2022, the UK has responded more than 15 credible threats and plots to kill British or UK-based individuals by the Iranian regime. The regime has publicly called for the killing of these individuals and in some cases detained and harassed the individual’s families in Iran.
- The UK Government works with a range of partners and will continue to use all tools at our disposal to protect individuals in the UK against any threats from the Iranian state.
- The Government continually assesses potential threats in the UK, and takes the protection of individuals’ rights, freedoms, and safety very seriously – wherever those threats may originate.
- The regime contains measures designed to target individuals and organisations, including designation powers designed to deter the Government of Iran. or armed groups that they back, from conducting hostile activity against the United Kingdom or any other country.
- The new sanctions regime was initially announced in July 2023.
- Travel ban: A travel ban means that the designated person must be refused leave to enter or to remain in the United Kingdom, providing the individual is an excluded person under section 8B of the Immigration Act 1971.
- Asset freeze: An asset freeze prevents any UK citizen, or any business in the UK, from dealing with any funds or economic resources which are owned, held or controlled by the designated person. It also prevents funds or economic resources being provided to or for the benefit of the designated person. UK financial sanctions apply to all persons within the territory and territorial sea of the UK and to all UK persons, wherever they are in the world.
- By significantly expanding the UK’s sanctions powers, the UK’s has created a new criteria under which individuals and entities can be sanctioned, including:
- the Iranian regime’s activities undermining peace, stability and security in the Middle East and internationally;
- the use and spread of weapons or weapons technologies from Iran;
- the Iranian regime’s undermining of democracy, respect for the rule of law and good governance;
- other hostile activities towards the UK and our partners emanating from the Iranian regime, including threats to our people, property, or security. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
13 Dec 23. South Korea’s defence minister warns North Korea of ‘hell of destruction.’ South Korea’s defence minister threatened on Wednesday to unleash a “hell of destruction” on neighbouring North Korea in retaliation for any reckless actions.
The heightened rhetoric comes after North Korea said last month it would no longer abide by a military pact between the neighbours in 2018 that aimed to reduce tension.
Pyongyang’s step came after South Korea said it would partially suspend the deal, following the launch of a spy satellite by the North.
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“North Korea has only two choices – peace or destruction,” a South Korean defence ministry statement quoted the minister, Shin Won-sik, as saying.
“If North Korea makes reckless actions that harm peace, only a hell of destruction awaits them.”
The remarks, made during a meeting of top military commanders, come less than a week after Shin visited the South’s missile command, which he said would be tasked with “lethally striking the heart and head of the enemy” in the event of a war.
North Korea has defended its development of missiles and nuclear weapons as a sovereign right necessary to counter moves by the United States and its allies.
“The U.S. aggression and hegemonic moves for strengthened alliance are the root cause of aggravating the regional tension,” ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said on Tuesday in a commentary on U.S. drills with Australia and Japan.
In his meeting with the commanders, Shin outlined steps the military was taking to boost its capabilities.
These include launching its own satellites, improving soldiers’ welfare, and “dramatically” strengthening the South’s “three-axis” defence system designed to counter the North’s military threats, including war plans that call for pre-emptive strikes if necessary.
On Tuesday the ministry requested a hike of 4.5% in next year’s defence budget, aiming to boost the “three-axis” system with more submarines, U.S.-made F-35A stealth jets, and missile defence systems.
Last week, the national security advisers of the United States, South Korea and Japan, meeting in Seoul, agreed on new initiatives to respond to North Korea’s threats in cyberspace, from cryptocurrency abuses to space launches.
South Korea and the United States will hold talks on nuclear deterrence on Friday as part of Washington’s commitment to give Seoul more insight into its plans in the event of conflict with North Korea.
Since their 1950-53 war ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty, the neighbours remain technically in a state of war. (Source: Reuters)
11 Dec 23. India sets up non-lapsable fund for defence modernisation.
Despite India’s growing defence expenditure, the government has also allocated a non-lapsable fund for further military modernisation.
India has announced it will set up a non-lapsable fund to invest more in the country’s defence modernisation.
The fund comes just after the government allocated $19.4bn (Rs1.6trn) to the modernisation of the armed forces under its February 2023 Union Budget, which marked a 57% rise since 2019/20.
In accordance with the programmes, the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is expected to add main battle tanks, air defence gun systems, missiles, naval vessels, submarines, multi-role aircraft, transport helicopters, and attack helicopters to its existing fleet.
It also plans to upgrade its C4I2SR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, information, surveillance, and reconnaissance) systems, maritime surveillance, and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. While the Indian Army’s long delayed Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) programme is expected to be expedited, the MoD is also anticipated to speed up the Army’s Tactical Communication System programme.
Looking ahead, GlobalData intelligence anticipates Indian defence spending to increase from $80.5bn to $97.7bn between 2024 and 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%. This contrasts with the slow CAGR of 3.6% since 2019 largely due to economic constraints.
Modernisation ahead of renewed conflicts
The country’s decision to assign more funds to modernisation reflects the global trend of defence expansion as a means of security in an unstable geopolitical landscape.
British think tank, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, recently launched the 2023 publication of its annual Armed Conflict Survey, which tells us that India is focused on upgrading its border defences and surveillance.
This has led to a decline in border crossings and violence by militants along the Line of Control – a contentious region it shares with Pakistan.
The Survey also refers to India’s growing “hawkishness” toward China over a border dispute in the north-east of the subcontinent along the Line of Actual Control. This has led to a pragmatic foreign policy approach of “selectively aligning with the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China.”
In that spirit of realpolitik, the India-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (Indus-X) was launched in late June this year. The two tentative allies are forming an “innovation bridge” to connect US and Indian defence start-ups as dual-use technologies from commercial sectors are innovating military solutions. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
11 Dec 23. DOD Officials Underscore ‘Ironclad’ Commitment to Philippines After China’s Unsafe Maneuvers. Defense officials remain in close consultation with counterparts from the Philippines following the latest unsafe operational behavior by Chinese military vessels against Philippine vessels operating lawfully in the South China Sea over the weekend, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today. Ryder underscored the United States’ “ironclad” commitment to upholding its obligations under its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and urged “all nations to work together in the region to ensure that ships and aircraft can sail wherever international law allows.”
“We’re going to continue to consult very closely with our Philippine allies and our partners in the region,” he told reporters during a briefing at the Pentagon.
Chinese vessels carried out unsafe maneuvers against Philippine vessels operating outside the Scarborough Reef on Saturday and again near the Second Thomas Shoal on Sunday.
During the encounters, the Chinese vessels employed water cannons and forced a collision which caused damage to Philippine vessels undertaking official supply missions.
Chinese military ships operating near the Scarborough Reef also used acoustic devices to incapacitate Filipino crew members.
“By impeding the safe operations of Philippine vessels carrying provisions to Filipino service members stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, the PRC interfered in lawful Philippine maritime operations and in Philippine vessels’ exercise of high seas freedom of navigation,” State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement on Sunday. “Obstructing supply lines to this longstanding outpost and interfering with lawful Philippines maritime operations undermines regional stability.”
The latest maneuvers are a continuation of the Chinese military’s increasingly provocative and risky behavior in the region.
Defense officials have also noted a steep rise in risky and aggressive intercepts by China’s military of U.S. aircraft operating in international airspace in accordance with international law.
According to the most recent China Military Power Report, the U.S. has documented more than 180 coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region between 2021 and 2023.
That is more risky intercepts in the past two years than in the past decade, according to the report.
“It’s just hugely irresponsible and unsafe when you’re putting seamen at risk at sea, operating in international waters and completely within their rights,” Ryder said of China’s behavior over the weekend.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met last month with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. as part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Jakarta, Indonesia.
During their discussion, the secretaries applauded the “historic momentum” in the alliance, “which has upheld peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region for over seventy years,” according to a joint summary of the meeting.
The secretaries also discussed recent provocations by China during the meeting.
“Secretary Austin reiterated President Biden’s message that the U.S. defense commitment to the Philippines is ironclad and emphasized that the United States stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Philippines in defending its sovereign rights and jurisdiction in its exclusive economic zone,” according to the meeting summary.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., spoke with Philippines Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Gen. Romeo Brawner, Jr., by phone today following China’s latest provocations against the Philippine vessels.
During the discussion, the two leaders discussed the regional security environment as well as the two countries’ mutual strategic security interests and opportunities for increased military cooperation, according to a summary of the phone call.
The two leaders also agreed to remain in close consultation, according to the summary. (Source: U.S. DoD)
12 Dec 23. Nuclear warnings serve Putin’s purpose as he bids for new term.
- Summary
- Putin boasts of advances in Russia nuclear weapons
- Nuclear tensions serve Kremlin as deterrent to West in Ukraine
- Last arms control treaty with United States expires in 2026
The prospect of six more years in power for Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to mean no let-up in nuclear tensions with the United States, as time runs out on the last remaining treaty that limits the number of warheads each side can deploy.
Putin has boasted since launching his 2022 invasion of Ukraine that Russia has the world’s most advanced nuclear arms and said it could wipe out any aggressor.
On Monday, three days after announcing he would stand for re-election in March, he presided at a flag-raising ceremony for two new submarines including the Emperor Alexander III, which last month tested a nuclear-capable Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile.
While denying that Moscow is “brandishing” nuclear weapons and resisting calls to adopt a more aggressive doctrine on their possible use, he has placed his nuclear forces on raised alert and announced the deployment of tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus, his neighbour and ally.
Last month he signed a law revoking Russia’s ratification of the global treaty that bans nuclear testing, although Moscow says it will not carry out a test – which would be its first since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union – unless the United States does so.
Some security analysts say nuclear weapons have assumed greater importance in Putin’s thinking and rhetoric as his conventional forces have struggled in Ukraine and as Western countries have weaned themselves off Russian energy, weakening his ability to exert pressure by cutting off oil and gas.
The Kremlin leader has no interest in talking to Washington about reducing nuclear risk, analysts say, because Moscow believes it is precisely the fear that it may resort to nuclear weapons that has deterred the United States and its allies from directly joining the war on Ukraine’s side.
“How can you reduce the risk if you continue to play the nuclear card vis-a-vis the United States and NATO?” said former Soviet and Russian diplomat Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.
“How can you discuss something to make sure that nuclear weapons are never, ever actually used if you want to keep the threat – maybe not really high but at least at some kind of visible and credible level?”
TICKING CLOCK
By the time Putin’s expected new term gets under way next May, there will be less than two years remaining until the New START treaty, which limits Russia and the United States to 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and bombs on each side, expires on Feb. 4, 2026.
The agreement, originally due to run out in 2021, was hurriedly extended for five years after U.S. President Joe Biden was inaugurated at the start of that year.
But the prospects for a further extension, let alone a more ambitious successor pact, look doubtful for many reasons. China’s nuclear build-up is a complicating factor, and it’s not clear who will be in charge in the White House by 2026.
Putin this year suspended Russia’s participation in New START, and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said last month that Moscow would not resume dialogue unless the United States dropped what he called its “fundamentally hostile course” towards Russia – a reference to U.S. backing for Ukraine which Biden has said is unshakeable.
Putin has frequently talked up the potential of Russia’s new weapons systems such as the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and Burevestnik cruise missile, and Ryabkov said Washington was wrong if it thought it could win a news arms race against Russia of the kind that U.S. President Ronald Reagan conducted in the 1980s.
But such a contest would impose strains on Russia too.
“Russia knows that an uncontrolled new nuclear arms race is something they would not be able to afford and do not really have the capacity to sustain. Even more so now that in most respects Russia is much weaker as a consequence of its war against Ukraine,” said Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
He said sanctions, while they had not crippled Russia’s economy, were restricting its access to technology, citing the crash of its moon-landing mission in August as an example of a spectacular high-tech failure.
Sokov, the former Russian diplomat, expressed a different view, saying Russia’s research and development programmes were far cheaper to run than those of the United States, and that Russia’s economy was in better shape than the Soviet Union’s in the 1980s.
“We are heading into a new arms race anyway, actually. It will not be a quantitative arms race in terms of changing numbers, it will be an arms race about the quality of weapons and new types and new capabilities,” he said.
“We will be living in a situation that is less stable and the prospects of arms control are quite bleak.” (Source: Reuters)
12 Dec 23. South Africa hosts China-South Africa Defence Committee. South Africa has hosted the ninth meeting of the China-South Africa Defence Committee, which marks a continuation of the close defence ties between the two BRICS nations.
China’s defence ministry said the meeting was held from 29 November to 3 December and the two sides exchanged in-depth views on issues of common concern including the international and regional security situation, national defence and military development in each country, and bilateral military exchanges and cooperation between China and South Africa. The two sides also signed cooperation documents.
“Both sides spoke highly of the relations between the two countries and two militaries, and pledged to fully exploit the guiding and coordinating role of the China-South Africa Defence Committee mechanism under the strategic guidance of the heads of state, further tap the potential of cooperation, expand the cooperation fields, and add new connotations to the China-South Africa comprehensive strategic partnership, so as to make positive contributions to the international and regional security and stability,” the Chinese defence ministry stated.
The eighth China-South Africa Defence Committee meeting took place in Beijing from 21 to 23 August 2018 when General Li Zuocheng, member of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and chief of the Joint Staff Department under the CMC, met with General Solly Shoke, chief of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).
The first meeting of the China–South Africa defence committee, a forum created in 2000 with the Pretoria Declaration, was held in April 2003. Only a year later a formal agreement was signed allowing for the training of South African soldiers and a donation of electronic equipment to the South African National Defence Force, the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) reported.
“By 2010, the fourth China–South Africa defence committee meeting in November expanded security co-operation on the continent. Under President Jacob Zuma, acknowledgement of China’s expanded role in peacekeeping and its supportive position on the UN Security Council and at the African Union (AU) has resulted in greater enthusiasm in military circles for co-operation,” the SAIIA added.
Defence ties between South Africa and China have been cosy for some time, with another indication of the strengthening military relationship evidenced by a high-level visit to SA Air Force (SAAF) headquarters in September this year by General Chang Dingqiu, Commander of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLA Air Force).
The engagement came after the 20-24 August BRICS Summit in Johannesburg during which President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in a celebration of 25 years of diplomatic relations between the People’s Republic of China and South Africa. Jinping and Ramaphosa also co-chaired the China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue in Johannesburg.
Dingqiu’s visit came just weeks after the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Chief of Staff, Vice Admiral Hu Zhongming, paid a courtesy call to SA Navy (SAN) Chief Vice Admiral Monde Lobese at Naval Headquarters in Pretoria.
The visit was part of an official PLAN visit South Africa from 29 August to 1 September. The courtesy call strengthened relations between the navies, the SAN said. The SAN and the PLAN previously engaged in joint naval exercises including Exercise Mosi with Russia.
The PLA Vice Admiral’s visit was preceded by that of PLAN frigate CNS Sanya (a Type 054A warship). She was alongside at Cape Town’s V&A Waterfront on 24 July for three days as part of the Chinese PLAN 43rd Escort Task Force along with guided-missile destroyer Nanning and the supply ship Weishanhu.
In June, Chief of the SANDF, General Rudzani Maphwanya, was in Beijing where he met with China’s defence minister General Li Shangfu to discuss strengthening military-to-military relations.
China’s military ties with South Africa go back decades, as China supported the African National Congress (ANC) in its fight against apartheid, with the first batch of six uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) fighters going to China for military training in November 1961. As a consequence of this support during the liberation era, South Africa recognised the People’s Republic of China in January 1998, ending formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
In recent years South African-China defence co-operation increased notably. In June 2014, for example, three vessels comprising the 16th Escort Task Group of the Chinese PLA Navy visited Cape Town and subsequently numerous naval task groups stopped in the Cape. This culminated in the first multinational maritime exercise (Exercise Mosi) between China, Russia and South Africa in November 2019.
Also in recent years, high-level PLA delegations visited South Africa, with reciprocal visits by SANDF personnel to China, in line with China-South Africa Defence Committee meeting outcomes.
As noted by SAIIA, since the signing of the Beijing Declaration in 2000, commercial transactions between South Africa’s armaments manufacturer Denel and the Chinese military increased. The PLA has taken delivery of South African technologies related to anti-aircraft gun ammunition, anti-tank guided missiles and air-to-air missiles. South Africa’s aerospace industry has also established strong links in China, such as in developing unmanned aerial vehicle programmes. Chinese pilots also received flight training from ex-South African air force and navy personnel in Mafikeng, starting in 2010.
“Nevertheless, research has shown that while there has been an increased exchange of military personnel there is little trade in military goods between the countries, as South Africa manufactures much of its own military equipment while sourcing the remainder from the European Union (EU). Despite its opening an office in Cape Town, the Chinese industrial equivalent to Denel has been notably unsuccessful in penetrating this market in South Africa,” SAIIA reported. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
12 Dec 23. RoK Seeks to Spend Nearly 350trn Won in Defense Over Next 5 Years. The defense ministry said Tuesday it seeks to spend nearly 350trn won (US$266bn) over the next five years to maintain and strengthen defense capabilities, including the military’s “three-axis” deterrence system against North Korea’s military threats.
The ministry announced the mid-term defense blueprint for 2024-2028 as Seoul seeks to bolster its defense capabilities against North Korea’s evolving military threats, recently highlighted by the launch of its first military spy satellite last month.
The blueprint features various defense reinforcement schemes, such as acquiring military reconnaissance satellites, deploying more submarines, advanced missile interceptor systems, and developing electromagnetic pulse (EMP) shells.
During the five-year period, the ministry seeks to spend a total of 348.7trn won — 113.9trn won for improving defense capabilities and 234.8trn won for maintaining troops, equipment and facilities.
It aims to increase the country’s annual defense budget, which stood at 57trn won this year, to 59.6trn won for next year, 64.3trn won for 2025, 70trn won for 2026, 74.8trn won for 2027 and 80trn won for 2028.
Over the period, the average annual increase rate of defense spending amounts to 7 percent. A defense spending plan is subject to parliamentary approval.
The blueprint contains various schemes focusing on securing deterrence capabilities under the military’s three-pronged system, which consists of the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation, an operational plan to incapacitate the North Korean leadership in a major conflict; the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike platform; and the Korea Air and Missile Defense system.
The projects include acquiring five military spy satellites by 2025 and launching dozens of small-sized satellites by 2030 that will enable the military to monitor North Korea every 30 minutes, according to a defense official.
South Korea’s first homegrown spy satellite entered orbit earlier this month after being launched from the U.S. Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
In addition, the ministry seeks to complete the deployment of tactical surface-to-surface missiles designed to destroy hostile tunnel targets and begin deploying the KSS-III Batch-II submarines, which will be able to carry more submarine-launched ballistic missiles than Batch-I units.
It also plans to acquire more advanced stealth fighters and develop new advanced weapons systems, such as suicide drones and EMP shells designed to neutralize the enemy’s electronic equipment.
As part of efforts to establish a multilayered missile defense system, the ministry seeks to complete the deployment of the Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile (M-SAM) system and the long-range surface-to-air missile (L-SAM) system by 2028.
It also seeks to begin development of the improved M-SAM-III and the L-SAM-II systems in the next five years.
On the force structure, the ministry plans to keep the number of active-duty military personnel at the current level of 500,000 amid concerns over a decline in personnel resources due to the country’s low birthrate.
(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Yonhap News Agency)
11 Dec 23. Putin views new nuclear submarines, says more are being rolled out. President Vladimir Putin attended a televised flag-raising ceremony on Monday for two nuclear submarines that he said were part of a strategic drive to project Russian naval power.
Putin travelled to the northern city of Severodvinsk to view the vessels, the Krasnoyarsk and Emperor Alexander the Third, at the Sevmash shipbuilding yard.
Putin said both nuclear-powered vessels would soon take up duty in the Pacific, emphasising that they were part of two separate series of submarines that Russia is rolling out.
“We will quantitatively strengthen the combat readiness of the Russian Navy, our naval power in the Arctic, the Far East, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Caspian Sea – the most important strategic areas of the world’s oceans,” he said, flanked by officials and naval officers on an outdoor stage with snowflakes fluttering in the air.
The Emperor Alexander III is part of Russia’s new Borei (Arctic Wind) class of nuclear submarines, the first new generation it has launched since the Cold War.
Last month the defence ministry said the vessel had successfully tested a nuclear-capable Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile.
The Krasnoyarsk belongs to the Yasen (Ash Tree) class of multi-purpose submarines equipped with long-range, high-precision missiles that Putin said could strike both sea and land targets.
Putin, who last Friday announced he would seek another presidential term in an election due in March, has repeatedly talked up the potential of Russia’s new generation of weapons, particularly its nuclear systems, and their value as a deterrent to the West.
Security analysts say nuclear arms have assumed a greater importance in his thinking and rhetoric since the start of the Ukraine conflict, where his conventional forces are locked in a grinding war of attrition with no end in sight. (Source: Reuters)
11 Dec 23. FCDO spokesperson statement on incidents in the South China Sea. UK statement in response to Chinese escalation against the Philippines in the South China Sea. A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development spokesperson said: “The UK condemns the unsafe and escalatory tactics deployed by Chinese vessels against the Philippines on 9 and 10 December in the South China Sea. The UK opposes any action which raises tensions, including harassment, unsafe conduct and intimidation tactics which increase the risk of miscalculation and threaten regional peace and stability. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea sets out the legal framework that governs all activities in the oceans and seas. We oppose any claims that are not founded in UNCLOS. Both China and the Philippines must adhere to the findings of the 2016 Arbitral Award proceedings, which are legally binding on both parties.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
11 Dec 23. China-Philippines: Recent South China Sea clashes will sustain regional tensions, drive security risks for fishing and hydrocarbon ventures. On 9 and 10 December, Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels clashed with Philippines-flagged boats in the South China Sea. Tensions escalated as the Philippines conducted resupply missions to soldiers on the Sierra Madre, a warship grounded in 1999 to assert its maritime claims on Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippine coast guard has alleged that China’s coast guard fired water cannons and rammed their vessels. Meanwhile, China has accused the Philippine vessel Unaizah Mae 1 of intentionally ramming into a Chinese coast guard vessel. Additionally, Manila claims that the Chinese Coast Guard used water cannons and sound blasts against supply boats near Scarborough Shoal. The latest events indicate an escalation of regional tensions. In the coming weeks, this trend is expected to persist, raising operational and security risks for fishing and hydrocarbon activities in and around contested waters. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Dec 23. Russia: Incumbent president will almost certainly be re-elected in 2024 amid widespread repression. On 8 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he will run for a fifth term in the March 2024 presidential election. Putin disclosed his candidacy at an awards ceremony for Russian military personnel who had fought in Ukraine. The Kremlin has highly likely sought to portray the announcement as spontaneous and at the behest of Russian military personnel, who reportedly asked Putin to stand for another term. Jailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny has urged Russians to vote for any candidate other than Putin on during the election on 17 March 2024. Navalny also called for each of his supporters to convince at least ten other voters to cast ballots for an alternate candidate. However, such tactics are highly unlikely to prevent Putin from securing another term. Putin will almost certainly be re-elected given the crackdown against authentic domestic opposition and the Kremlin’s desire to maximise government stability amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Dec 23. Congo (DRC): Possible violation of ceasefire would increase risk of escalation in regional tensions. At around 1200hrs (local time) on 11 December, the armed forces and non-state militia groups active in the Congo (DRC)’s north-east commenced a 72-hour ceasefire to allow for the withdrawal of forces occupying Mushaki in Masisi territory (North Kivu province). On 7 December, the M23 armed rebel group, which the DRC accuses Rwanda of backing, seized the town of Mushaki after violent clashes with the DRC’s armed forces. The governments of Rwanda and the DRC have both backed the ceasefire, which comes after the UN mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) warned of a direct military confrontation between the DRC and Rwanda that would possibly also risk drawing in Burundi. The M23 group has breached previous ceasefire agreements, including in November 2022. There is a realistic possibility that either side will violate the ceasefire, which would greatly increase the risk of an escalation in regional tensions; this would also significantly undermine the prospects for peace negotiations. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Dec 23. Myanmar: Short-term risk of armed conflict remains high despite mediation attempts by Beijing. On 11 December, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry claimed that ‘positive results’ were gained from Chinese-facilitated peace talks held with parties involved in the ongoing conflict in northern Myanmar. Myanmar’s junta also claimed that the talks went ahead and that they included representatives of the three ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) most heavily involved in fighting in Myanmar’s Shan state (which borders China). The junta also claimed that further talks would occur at the end of December. However, subsequent local reports quoting sources close to the EAOs dispute the significance of the talks. China has a vested interest in easing instability along its border, in order to reduce the number of displaced people fleeing to China and address disruption to cross-border trade. It also wields some influence over various EAOs operating near the border, as well as over the junta. However, fighting is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term as EAOs attempt to take control of more towns. Consequently, the security environment in northern Myanmar will remain extremely volatile. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Dec 23. Pakistan: Militant attack against police station highlights growing threats facing security forces. Earlier on 12 December, militants rammed an explosive-laden truck into a police station in the district of Dera Ismail Khan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province), killing at least 24 people and injuring 34 others; casualty numbers are likely to rise in the coming hours. Gunmen then attacked the police station, which was being used as a base camp by the Pakistani military. Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), which claims to be linked to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has taken responsibility for the attack. While this is the first attack claimed by TJP in recent months, it comes amid a sharp uptick in militant activity by TTP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa against the security forces. Although the military is likely to intensify counter-terrorism operations in the province in the coming weeks, heightened security risks will likely persist for bystanders located near military and security facilities. The threat of attacks will remain elevated in the run-up to the election in February 2024. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Dec 23. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr.. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout:
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr. spoke by phone today. The Secretaries discussed coercive and unlawful actions by the People’s Republic of China in the South China Sea over the weekend, including the unprovoked use of acoustic devices, water cannons, and reckless maneuvers at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, which caused a collision and damage to lawfully operating Philippine vessels in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone.
Secretary Austin expressed U.S. support for the Philippines in defending its sovereign rights in accordance with international law, emphasizing that the United States’ commitment to the Philippines remains ironclad. Secretary Austin reiterated that the Mutual Defense Treaty extends to both countries’ armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft—including those of their respective Coast Guards—anywhere in the Pacific, to include the South China Sea. He commended the professionalism of the Armed Forces of the Philippines in the face of unlawful behavior.
The Secretaries highlighted the Philippines’ recent bilateral maritime activities in the South China Sea with the United States and Australia. They agreed to bolster bilateral and multilateral coordination with other likeminded partners to enhance interoperability and accelerate the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. They also reaffirmed their countries’ shared vision of a free and open region grounded in transparency, the rule of law, respect for sovereignty, and the peaceful resolution of disputes.
Secretary Austin also expressed condolences for the horrific terrorist attack that occurred at Mindanao State University on December 3, killing at least four people and injuring more than 50 others. Secretary Austin also offered his sympathy for the December 2 earthquake in Mindanao that killed three people and damaged local homes and infrastructure. (Source: U.S. DoD)
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