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11 Jan 20. Iran – Iran admits its armed forces accidentally shot down Ukraine International Airlines aircraft on 8 January (UPDATE #4). On 11 January, Iran publicly admitted that its armed forces accidentally shot down a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737 civilian commercial passenger aircraft due to “human error” shortly after take-off from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (OIIE/IKA) on 8 January. International media outlet reporting indicates that the most probable surface-to air missile (SAM) system employed during the shoot-down was an Iranian military Russian-made 9K330 Tor (SA-15 GAUNTLET). The most capable variants of the SA-15 can engage aerial targets out to 20 miles (16km) and at altitudes up to FL330. The shoot-down occurred just hours after Iran had launched 16 short-range ballistic missiles targeting US military sites in Iraq. In the past 72 hours, EASA along with the US, UK, France, Germany and Ukraine have all issued new or updated guidance for their respective aviation operators for of the airspace of Iran (FIR Tehran (OIIX)) as well as Iraq (FIR Baghdad (ORBB)) (KICZ A0001/20, A0002/20 & A0008/20; EGTT V0002/20, V0003/20; LFFF F0027/20; EDGG B0007/20, B0023/20; UKBV A0033/20). In addition to those mentioned above, several other national aviation bodies have reportedly advised their carriers to avoid using the airspace over Iraq, Iran, the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman in the current security climate, including Russia and India. Numerous commercial airlines have suspended flights at various airports in both Iraq and Iran, as well as rerouting others using the airspace over the countries, due to the security situation.
Analysis
The confirmed Iranian military use of a conventional SAM system to mistakenly shoot down a civilian commercial passenger aircraft in-flight over Tehran is highly concerning as the airspace in the vicinity of this area includes a number of high-traffic ATS routes used by civil aviation operators. Iran has a documented history of poor coordination of civilian flights in its airspace with military air & air defence operations. In June 2007, an Iranian military air defense unit unsuccessfully engaged a civilian commercial passenger aircraft with a SA-15, in a similar case of mis-identification. In May 2008, Iranian military air defence units employed unspecified weapon systems to accidentally and unsuccessfully target civilian commercial passenger aircraft on two occasions. In recent months, Iran has demonstrated its conventional SAM capabilities to engage military-grade drones operating over the Persian Gulf area. On 8 November 2019, the Iranian military claimed that its air defences had shot down a drone of unspecified variant and operated by an unidentified entity over the port city of Mahshahr, located in the northwest Persian Gulf, via “Mersad” conventional SAM system engagement. The “Mersad” is capable of engaging aerial targets at altitudes up to FL650 and at ranges out to 30 miles (48 km). On 20 June 2019, a US military RQ-4A drone was shot down over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian military “Raad 3rd Khordad” conventional SAM system launched from a site in Iran’s Hormozgan Province located along the Persian Gulf coast. The “Raad 3rd Khordad” is capable of engaging aerial targets at altitudes up to FL660 and at ranges out to 50 miles (80 km). There is a significantly increased likelihood of additional short-notice near-term airspace restrictions being enacted for FIR Tehran (OIIX) and FIR Baghdad (ORBB) by further aviation authorities. Operators should remain prepared for at least a temporary loss of access to FIR Tehran (OIIX) and FIR Baghdad (ORBB) as a result of the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. We continue to assess the entirety of Iran and Iraq to be EXTREME risk airspace operating environments at all altitudes.
Risk area recommendation: Defer all flights subject to an operation specific risk assessment
Advice
Approvals: As a precaution, conduct operational risk-based identification of divert and alternate airports for flight schedules with planned stops at aerodromes in the country or with overflight of the airspace. Operators are advised to ensure flight plans are correctly filed, attain proper special approvals for flight operations to sensitive locations and obtain relevant overflight permits prior to departure. In addition, ensure crews scheduled to operate to or over the country in the near term are fully aware of the latest security situation.
Missile Launches: Unannounced rocket and missile launches that transit airspace used by civilian aircraft pose a latent threat to operations at all altitudes. The country has a history of not issuing adequate notice of activities in its airspace that could affect flight safety. Multiple safety of flight concerns emanate from a situation where a missile malfunctions during the boost, mid-course or terminal phases of flight. Such an event would cause the missile to fly an unplanned trajectory and altitude profile which could expose overflying aircraft to mid-air collision, route diversion and or debris splashdown issues. Leading civil aviation governing bodies have standing notices advising operators of the threat to civil aviation in the airspace due to unannounced military activity, rocket test firings and or missile launches.
Shoot-down Policy: The country has an aggressive air intercept and shoot-down policy which allows air and air defence forces to intercept and disable aerial targets violating airspace regulations. Military air and air defence assets may be employed to down aerial targets under the auspice of the policy. While legal civil aviation flights are unlikely to be directly targeted, there remains a latent but credible risk of misidentification and interception by military air and air defence assets. (Source: Osprey)
10 Jan 20. U.S. State Dept approves sale of 12 F-35 jets to Singapore. The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of up to 12 F-35 fighter jets and related equipment to Singapore at an estimated cost of $2.75bn, pending approval from Congress, Washington’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said on Friday.
The tiny Asian city-state said last year it planned to buy an initial four F-35s from Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N), with an option for eight more, as it looks to replace its ageing F-16 fleet.
“The State Department has made a determination approving a possible foreign military sale to Singapore of up to twelve F-35B…aircraft and related equipment for an estimated cost of $2.750bn,” the DSCA said in a statement, adding it had notified Congress of a possible sale.
DSCA said the sale involved equipment from Lockheed and engine maker Pratt and Whitney (UTX.N). The F-35B variant of the jet can handle short takeoffs and vertical landings, attributes seen as benefiting land-scarce Singapore.
The Pentagon in October announced F-35 jet prices for the next three years which lowered the cost of the jet by 13%, a move seen as encouraging other nations to buy the warplanes. The jet currently makes up about 25% of Lockheed’s annual revenue.
With Southeast Asia’s largest defence budget, wealthy Singapore is a key prize for global arms companies as it looks to invest in new technology and upgrade its equipment. Singapore, which is expected to hold an election within months, set aside about 30% of its total expenditure on defence, security and diplomacy efforts in its 2019 annual budget. (Source: Reuters)
09 Jan 20. U.S. believes Iran brought down Ukraine airliner with anti-aircraft missiles – officials. The U.S. government believes Iran accidentally shot down a Ukraine airliner that crashed in Iran, killing all 176 people aboard, three U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday.
Citing an extensive review of satellite data, one official said the U.S. government had concluded with a high degree of certainty that Iranian anti-aircraft missiles brought down the plane.
The officials said the plane had been tracked by Iranian radar before the missiles were fired.
The data showed the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 bound for Kiev was airborne for two minutes after departing Tehran when the heat signatures of two surface-to-air missiles were detected, one of the officials said.
That was quickly followed by an explosion in the vicinity of the plane, this official said. Heat signature data then showed the plane on fire as it went down.
Iran’s head of civil aviation was quoted by ISNA News Agency as saying that it was “impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane.”
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the deadly crash could have been a mistake and he did not believe it was a mechanical issue.
The three officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was an accident. It occurred shortly after Iran had fired missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq and Iranians were on high alert for a U.S. military response.
An Iranian report on Thursday cited witnesses on the ground and in a passing aircraft flying at a high altitude as saying the plane was on fire while in the air.
Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration declined to comment on Thursday, as did the Pentagon. Ukrainian officials had no immediate comment.
Boeing is still reeling from two deadly crashes of 737 MAX planes in five months that led to the plane’s grounding in March 2019. The 737-800 that crashed was built in 2016 and is the prior generation of the 737 before the MAX. Boeing has built about 5,000 of those planes, which has a good safety record. Boeing shares rose 1.7% on Thursday. (Source: Reuters)
08 Jan 20. Joint Chiefs Chairman: Defensive Measures Prevented Casualties in Iranian Attack. Although Iranian missiles damaged equipment and infrastructure at U.S. and ally-occupied military installations in Iraq yesterday, training and defensive readiness paid off in no lives being lost, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
“There’s sirens that go off on these bases. … There’s bunkers and jersey barriers, and there’s places to go hide and all that,” said Army Gen. Mark A. Milley told reporters at the Pentagon today. Milley and Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper briefed reporters after spending most of the day on Capitol Hill talking with lawmakers.
“We have various levels of protective gear, and we have various scatter plans that do certain things,” the chairman said. “They are all tactics, techniques and procedures — normal defensive procedures that any military unit would do that would come under rocket attack, indirect fire, mortars, large-scale missiles, etc. So in this particular case, Al Asad is a big base — they put 11 large rockets [with] 1,000-, 2,000-pound warheads in them — but we took sufficient defensive measures that there were no casualties to U.S. personnel, coalition personnel, contractors or Iraqis.”
Esper said good discussions took place on Capitol Hill. “We covered a number of issues in both the House and Senate, everything ranging from authorities and imminence, all the way though force posture, next steps, etc.,” he said. “So a very good discussion, a very robust discussion, and you know I thought it was a good chance for all of us to kind of share our views and to consult on next steps.”
The secretary said Iran launched 16 ballistic missiles into Iraq. He said he believes the missiles were short-range ballistic missiles and that the missiles landed in at least two spots. Both landing spots were Iraqi military bases that played host to American and coalition forces, including service members from the United Kingdom, Denmark and Canada.
At least 11 of the 16 missiles struck at Al Asad Air Base, about 175 miles from Iraq’s border with Iran, and about 115 miles from Baghdad. At least one missile also hit at a military installation near Irbil, Iraq, some 200 miles north of Baghdad and about 60 miles from the border with Iran.
The secretary said the current battle damage assessment includes loss of such things as tents, taxiways, parking lots and damage to a helicopter, but “nothing I would describe as major, at least as I know it at this point in time.”
While no lives were lost, Milley said, he believes the Iranians intended to cause deaths.
“The points of impact were close enough to personnel and equipment … that I believe, based on what I saw and what I know, is that they were intended to cause structural damage, destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft, and to kill personnel,” Milley said. “That’s my own personal assessment.”
Esper and Milley both said professional intelligence analysts are working on a final assessment. The secretary said he remains cautious about drawing any conclusion that if the Iranians intended to kill Americans and did not accomplish that during the attack, they may consider the attempt a failure and try again.
“I think we have just got to assess the situation. Let’s see what they are saying publicly, see what they are saying privately, look at our intelligence, all those things,” he said. “We are not going to do anything imprudent. … These are serious times, and we take things one step at a time.” (Source: US DoD)
08 Jan 20. What missiles did Iran use to attack US bases? Iran overnight launched ballistic missiles at two US air bases in Iraq; Al Assad west of Baghdad and another in Irbil. Army Technology takes a look at the missiles used in the attack, and the circumstances surrounding it.
The attacks originated from Iran and were retaliation for the US Government’s drone strike, which killed the commander of Iran’s revolutionary guard Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani. They marked a diversion from the Iran’s usual retaliation through proxy forces across the region.
The bases, which host international personnel including those from the UK, came under fire. Army Technology understands that is still unclear whether any US personnel were killed in the attack, and the Department of Defense (DoD) said that an assessment of the damage was underway.
The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) confirmed on Twitter that no UK personnel had been killed in the attack; it had earlier moved non-essential personnel out of Baghdad and said it was “urgently working to establish all the facts on the ground”. The MOD earlier ordered the Royal Navy to resume escorts of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The UK has also put helicopters and ships in the region on standby, ready to respond to the ongoing crisis.
Iran has one of the largest and most diverse missile arsenals in the Middle East. According to a report from late last year from the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the country leveraged this in the attack, with reports from a range of sources including an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds force Telegram channel indicating that the country used Fateh-110, and Qiam-1 missiles in the attack.
Footage of the missile launches. Credits: Iranian Press TV.
Two missiles, two bases
“Iran has an extensive missile development programme, and the size and sophistication of its missile force continues to grow despite decades of counter-proliferation efforts aimed at curbing its advancement,” the report from the DIA reads.
This missile focus has allowed Iran to make up for its lack of an advanced air force with the country still operating ageing fighter jets.
In this instance the missiles used in the attack – dubbed “Martyr Soleimani” in reference to the late general – are believed to have a range of between 300km to 750km, allowing them to target the whole of Iraq, along with other neighbouring countries Syria, some of Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan to the east.
The Fateh-110 Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) has been described as one of the country’s more accurate missile systems, is a road-mobile solid propellant system that was previously used by the country in an attack on a ski resort in Israel, which was intercepted by the country’s Iron-Dome missile defence system.
The Fateh-110 missile is primarily operated by Iran by has also seen service in Syria and has reportedly been exported to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In 2014 Iran confirmed that it had supplied the organisation with the missiles, giving the group the ability to strike targets in Israel.
The second system that is reported to have been used in the attack is the longer-range Qiam-1 missile, with Iranian press reporting that the missile has a range of 800km – the US DIA estimates its range to be at least 750km.
Like the Fateh-110, the Qiam-1 is road-mobile, but can also be launched from a silo. In the past, Iran has supplied the weapon to Houthis in Yemen, according to the US DIA. The missile is based on the technology behind the Scud missile. According to Iranian media, it uses a fin-less design to reduce its radar cross-section and increase the number of potential launch systems for the missile.
A number of the missiles are understood to have missed their targets, and at least one was intercepted by air defence systems that cover the bases. In Irbil, fuel tank sections from the Qiam system were reportedly found in the area.
What happens now?
While damage assessments are ongoing, the question remains as to what will now happen in response to the missile attacks. Cranfield University Senior Lecturer in International Security Dr Anicée Van Engeland commented on the Iranian missile strikes saying: “The major question is not a legal one but a political one. Is Iran’s retaliation enough to satisfy an extremely angry population?
“Many Iranians find themselves in a dichotomy. They are furious at the US interference and its targeted killings, but at the same time, are deeply worried about the prospect of war.”
Van Engeland explained that the response treads a fine line between proportionality and escalation. It is still yet to become clear whether the US will respond, however US President Donald Trump is due to make a statement today.
Last night Trump said on Twitter: “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well-equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.”
In the midst of the fallout, Iraqi Prime MinisterAdil Abdul-Mahdi al-Muntafiki confirmed that the country had received notice of the missile attack, while officials from Iraq called for restraint. In a statement, the official spokesperson of the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said: “We have called, and we call on all, to exercise restraint, prevail over the language of reason, adhere to international covenants, respect the Iraqi state, and the decisions of its government, and help it to contain and overcome this serious crisis threatening it, the region, and the world with a devastating, comprehensive war.”
Van Engeland added: “The question still remains as to whether there will be a response from Iran’s paramilitary groups that the State has less control over? This still must be considered a real possibility.
“The missile strikes cannot be considered the end of the matter. Iran has publicly stated it wants US troops out of the region and the achievement of that goal will dominate its regional agenda for the many months and years ahead.” (Source: army-technology.com)
07 Jan 20. Iraq – Iran conducts ballistic missile strikes against US military targets, defer all flight over Iraq & Iran. The US Department of Defense has confirmed that at approximately 2230Z on 7 January, Iran launched more than 12 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) targeting Ain Al Asad Air Base (ORAA/IQA) in Iraq’s Anbar Province and Erbil International Airport (ORER/EBL) in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. No information has been verified regarding casualties and/or material damage; however, details are still emerging as the situation remains fluid and subject to change. Additional SRBM launches from Iran into Iraq targeting locations where US military advisers are present could occur within the next 12-24 hours with no notice. On 2 January, the US conducted airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets at Baghdad International Airport (ORBI/BGW). Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU) Kataib Hezbollah (KH) militia, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander, Qasem Soleimani, were killed in the strikes. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has vowed to seek revenge for the killing of Soleimani, and Iraqi PMU militias have also called for retaliation to the strikes. Of note, KH has warned Iraqi security forces to stay at least 1000m away from bases where US military advisers are present in Iraq, starting on 5 January. EASA as well as the US, UK, German and French civil aviation authorities have each issued similar stringent guidance to operators in the past year regarding the enduring hazardous security situation over Iraq, predominately at altitudes below FL260.
Analysis
The US is likely to respond to the reported SRBM attacks into Iraq with strikes against military-centric targets in Iran within the next 72-96 hours. Follow-on Iranian ballistic and/or cruise missile as well as drone strikes against US interests in the Middle East region would become a credible scenario depending on the scale and severity of any US strikes. Further short-notice airspace restrictions in the Middle East region may be enacted should open armed conflict between the US and Iran escalate further. Operators should remain prepared for at least a temporary loss of access to FIR Tehran (OIIX) and FIR Baghdad (ORBB) as a result of the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Based on a typical flight profile, the reported SRBMs would have transited western Iranian airspace (FIR Tehran (OIIX)) and flown across Iraqi airspace (FIR Baghdad (ORBB)) prior to impacting the sites noted above. As such the SRBMs transited through, over or near multiple ATS routes in western Iran in FIR Tehran (OIIX) utilised by civil aviation flights. In addition, SRBMs transited Iraqi airspace in close proximity to ATS routes UM688 and UM860, which are the primary airways used by civil aviation flights transiting FIR Baghdad (ORBB). Egyptian flag carrier EgyptAir and Bahrain’s Gulf Air have suspended flights at Baghdad, and Gulf Air has also suspended flights at Najaf (ORNI/NJF) due to the security situation. Royal Jordanian Airlines had resumed its operations at Baghdad after a multi-day suspension of flights. As a result of the current situation we now assess the entirety of Iraq and Iran to be EXTREME risk airspace operating environments at all altitudes; this is being kept under constant review. (Source: Osprey)
07 Jan 20. NATO Temporarily Suspends Training Mission in Iraq. Although NATO is committed to the training mission in Iraq, the alliance has suspended training operations in the country, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels today.
“In everything that we do, the safety of our personnel is paramount,” Stoltenberg told the media after a meeting of the North Atlantic Council. “As such, we have for the time being suspended our training on the ground, and we are taking all precautions necessary to protect our people. We are keeping the situation under close review.”
NATO and all NATO allies take part in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and NATO’s mission in Iraq is an important contribution to the coalition’s effort. The mission is a noncombat role for NATO personnel.
The alliance is in the country at the invitation of the Iraqi government to train Iraqi forces to prevent the return of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Stoltenberg said. That mission did not end with the killing in Iraq of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force – part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is designated by the United States as a terrorist organization.
A U.S. airstrike killed Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport Jan. 2.
“NATO is prepared to continue our training and capacity building when the situation permits,” the secretary general said. ”We remain strongly committed to the fight against international terrorism.”
Stoltenberg said U.S. officials briefed the allies on the regional situation following the killing of Soleimani. ”For years, all allies have expressed concern about Iran’s destabilizing activities in the wider Middle East region,” he said. “We agree Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon; we share concern about Iran’s missile tests, and we are united in condemning Iran’s support for a variety of different terrorist groups.”
Stoltenberg said the allies called for restraint and de-escalation. “A new conflict would be in no one’s interest,” he said. “So, Iran must refrain from further violence and provocations.” (Source: US DoD)
08 Jan 20. South China Sea contest heats up as Indonesia joins growing anti-Beijing coalition. The 2020s have gotten off to a rough start as China’s increasingly assertive position and ambitions in the South China Sea have drawn attention from yet another regional power: Indonesia, which is joining with neighbours to push back against China’s encroachment and disregard for international law and sovereignty.
China’s pursuit of regional primacy has prompted the nation to pursue the development of an integrated system of natural and man-made island fortresses.
Dominating and controlling foreign access to the South China Sea through which approximately US$5trn worth of maritime trade passes annually serves as a potent anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system as a buffer for expanding China’s designs for south-east Asia.
The growing deployment and respective capabilities of China’s armed forces, particularly the force projection capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), have prompted increased concern from established regional powers, including Japan, Korea and Australia.
Additionally, smaller regional nations with competing territorial claims and ancient fears of Chinese expansion, namely Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia, have all raised growing concerns about China’s militarisation and reclamation programs in the South China Sea.
In response, the US announced its ‘pivot’ towards the Indo-Pacific under the former Obama administration in 2013 moving to reassure regional US allies like Australia, Japan and emerging allies like Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam that the pre-eminent global power was committed to the enduring freedom and stability of the region.
Despite these early reassurances and renewed investment in the strategic capabilities of the US military under the Trump administration – the global responsibilities of the US, particularly in the Middle East, and the potential for conflict with Iran has once again drawn the attention of the US, providing an opportunity for China to enhance its military presence in the South China Sea.
Recently, Indonesia has joined a growing coalition of regional nations, each with their own interests in the South China Sea to push back against an increasingly assertive China and its designs for regional dominance.
This move by Australia’s neighbour comes following a year of mounting tensions between Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines as they seek to consolidate their own territorial holdings and the sovereignty of their own economic exclusion zones (EEZs) and national sovereignty.
Maximising a distracted, overstretched US
China has actively sought to counter traditional American and allied capabilities in both the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific.
This has included developing traditional power projection capabilities like aircraft carrier strike groups, increasingly capable fleets of nuclear and conventional powered attack and ballistic missile submarines, upgraded strategic bomber forces, highly capable fighter aircraft, and advanced ballistic and cruise missile systems.
Each of these platforms serves as an integral component within China’s rapidly developing ‘system of systems’ and broader joint power projection and A2/AD networks – this balance of traditional force structures, supported by asymmetric platforms, has served as a potent deterrent in the region.
As the US and other major allies continue to face domestic and other global challenges, the rising nations of the Indo-Pacific have begun pushing back against China’s mounting militarisation of the South China Sea – standing resolute despite a distracted US.
Indonesia deploys warships, echoing the actions of SE Asian neighbours
Recognising this, Indonesia has joined its regional partners to deploy a fleet of eight naval assets to the Natuna Islands following the presence of China’s ‘civilian’ fishing fleets, violating Indonesia’s EEZ and the national sovereignty of Indonesia.
Indonesia’s response to the presence of China and its growing antagonism towards the South China Sea adjacent nations echoes similar deployments made by the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines, both of which have had a series of confrontations with China in the region.
Throughout the later half of the 2010s, Vietnam’s coast guard stood nose-to-nose against much larger Chinese vessels over the disputed Vanguard Bank oil and gas fields.
The Philippines, while often mercurial in its nature concerning international relationships under President Rodrigo Duterte, has frequently sought to chart a middle path between China and the US, which has often led to Filipino naval and coast guard vessels patrolling and confronting Chinese vessels within their own EEZ.
Linchpin of the Indo-Pacific: The South China Sea
Former head of the Defence and Foreign Affairs and Trade departments, Dennis Richardson, called for Australia to conduct an increasing number of ‘freedom-of-navigation’ operations in the region, including directly confronting Beijing’s island fortresses within the 12-nautical-mile boundary of the disputed islands.
Mr Richardson reportedly explained to Paul Malley of The Australian that the nation and Navy should “not be afraid to sail within 12 nautical miles of the man-made atolls that China has constructed in the South China Sea and which Beijing claims as territorial islands — a claim not recognised under international law”.
“These so-called freedom-of-navigation exercises could be conducted discretely and with little or no fanfare so as not to gratuitously antagonise China, an outcome Australian policy-makers have been eager to avoid, Mr Richardson says,” Malley expanded.
Nevertheless, Australia has moved to support enduring US-led freedom of navigation patrols throughout the region as part of Operation GATEWAY, which is Australia’s commitment to preserving regional security and stability in south-east Asia – with a specific focus on both the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea.
Australia’s renewed and expanded role in the Indo-Pacific and the South China Sea in particular and Richardson’s calls for greater Australian boldness was recently reinforced by the University of Sydney-based US Strategic Studies Centre (USSC) in a paper titled Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific, which makes a series of powerful recommendations for Australia furthering the level of interoperability between Australian and allied militaries. (Source: Defence Connect)
07 Jan 20. Saudi Arabia – US Department of State issues ‘Security Alert’ on heightened risk of missile and drone attacks. On 2 January, the US conducted airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets in Iraq at Baghdad International Airport (ORBI/BGW) in the Iraqi capital, killing the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander, Qasem Soleimani. In the wake of the US strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has vowed to seek revenge for the death of Soleimani, and Yemeni Houthi rebels have called for “quick and decisive” retaliation. On 5 January, the US Department of State issued a Security Alert for Saudi Arabia stating there was a heightened risk of missile and drone attacks in the Kingdom. Previously, large-scale attacks targeted two major oil facilities in Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia on 14 September 2019, involving 18 military-grade weaponised drones and seven cruise missiles. Despite the Houthi claim of responsibility for these strikes, they did not emanate from Yemen, and the US claims the missiles and drones were launched by Iranian military forces from southwest Iran. In the wake of the attacks, the US military deployed additional air assets and conventional surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems to locations in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Gulf Region in order to deter and/or respond to future attacks of this nature. The locations of the attacks in Eastern Province lie outside the southwest provinces of Asir, Jizan and Najran, which are located within the Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids (SCATANA) area of Saudi Arabia, which is covered by a notice and a publication issued by the civil aviation authority of the country (NOTAM OEJD W0438/18; AIP SUP AIRAC 05/18 and 07/18). EASA and France have issued advisories to operators cautioning against conducting civil aviation flight activity within the southwest provinces of Saudi Arabia (EASA CZIB 2018-01-R3, France – AIC A 03/19).
Analysis
Our analysis indicates Saudi Arabia has shot down over 145 Houthi-launched surface-to-surface missiles (SSM) and drones over its territory since the start of 2018, including seven over Riyadh as well as two over Mecca Province and one over Yanbu, located deep within the interior of the country. However, Houthi rebel and military-grade weaponised drone launches into Saudi Arabia have dropped significantly since the September 2019 assessed Iranian attacks in Eastern Province. While we assess Iran is most likely to respond to the killing of the IRGC-QF Commander via strikes on US interests in Iraq, Syria and/or the Persian Gulf waters/airspace, it remains a credible but less likely scenario that Houthi rebels could launch ballistic and/or cruise missiles as well as drones against US interests in Saudi Arabia. The highest impact target relating to the US military in such a scenario would be Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base (OEPS/AKH), where the US has deployed MIM-104 Patriot conventional SAM systems and combat aircraft. The Patriot has the capability to engage air targets at altitudes up to FL800 and at ranges out to 100 miles (160km). In addition, Saudi military facilities in Asir, Jizan and Najran where US military advisers are present are assessed to be additional targets of significance under this scenario. In a separate credible but unlikely scenario, Iran could directly target Prince Sultan Air Base, military facilities in Saudi Arabia where US military advisers are present and/or US interests in the Kingdom via ballistic and/or cruise missiles as well as drones in strikes similar to the September 2019 attacks. Under this scenario Iran could claim responsibility directly for the attacks or, more likely, allow Yemeni Houthi rebels to claim responsibly, in order for the Iranian regime to maintain a modicum of plausible deniability. We continue to assess the airspace in the territory of Saudi Arabia outside the SCATANA zone to be a HIGH risk area at all altitudes and the SCATANA zone of the Kingdom to be an EXTREME risk area at all altitudes.
Advice
Approvals: As a precaution, conduct operational risk-based identification of divert and alternate airports for flight schedules with planned stops at aerodromes in the country or with overflight of the airspace. Operators are advised to ensure flight plans are correctly filed, attain proper special approvals for flight operations to sensitive locations and obtain relevant overflight permits prior to departure. In addition, ensure crews scheduled to operate to or over the country in the near term are fully aware of the latest security situation.
Missile Launches: Unannounced rocket and missile launches that transit airspace used by civilian aircraft pose a latent threat to operations at all altitudes. The country has a history of not issuing adequate notice of activities in its airspace that could affect flight safety. Multiple safety of flight concerns emanate from a situation where a missile malfunctions during the boost, mid-course or terminal phases of flight. Such an event would cause the missile to fly an unplanned trajectory and altitude profile which could expose overflying aircraft to mid-air collision, route diversion and or debris splashdown issues. Leading civil aviation governing bodies have standing notices advising operators of the threat to civil aviation in the airspace due to unannounced military activity, rocket test firings and or missile launches.
Shoot-down Policy: The country has an aggressive air intercept and shoot-down policy which allows air and air defence forces to intercept and disable aerial targets violating airspace regulations. Military air and air defence assets may be employed to down aerial targets under the auspice of the policy. While legal civil aviation flights are unlikely to be directly targeted, there remains a latent but credible risk of misidentification and interception by military air and air defence assets. (Source: Osprey)
06 Jan 20. Nato warns on Iran crisis as EU powers scramble to cool tensions. Jens Stoltenberg says conflict in ‘no one’s interests’ as European leaders urge de-escalation. The head of Nato has warned a new Middle East conflict would be in “no one’s interests” as leading European powers urged de-escalation in the Iran crisis but stopped short of criticising the US assassination of one of the Islamic republic’s top military commanders. The 29-member western military alliance held emergency talks on the crisis in Brussels on Monday as Germany and the UK sought to keep going the fight against the Isis militant group in the face of security threats after the killing of Qassem Soleimani last week. European diplomats are desperate to ease tensions and save a near-dead international nuclear deal with Iran, but many analysts say EU countries are short of leverage and increasingly marginalised because they are unhappy about the actions of both Washington and Tehran. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary-general, said the organisation’s members had been briefed by US officials on the situation in the Middle East and had called for “restraint and de-escalation”, citing concerns about Iran’s destabilising activities in the region. “A new conflict would be in no one’s interests,” Mr Stoltenberg said. “So Iran must refrain from further violence and provocations”. Mr Stoltenberg declined to say whether fellow Nato allies had criticised Washington over Soleimani’s assassination, which he said was a “US decision”. Nato had called for the Iran discussions after it suspended its training mission in Iraq over security concerns sparked by the US air strike in Baghdad last week that killed Soleimani, who oversaw Tehran’s foreign military strategy. We call on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and responsibility EU leaders Angela Merkel, German chancellor, France’s president Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, said earlier in a statement that they were “gravely concerned” about Iran’s activities in the region, including through the Quds force commanded by Soleimani.
They also criticised Tehran’s decision, announced late on Sunday, to ditch core curbs on its atomic energy programme agreed under the landmark 2015 nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), including on uranium enrichment. “We call on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and responsibility,” the EU leaders said. “We specifically call on Iran to refrain from further violent action or proliferation, and urge Iran to reverse all measures inconsistent with the JCPOA.” The statement struck a more emollient tone towards Washington after Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state, had criticised European powers as “not helpful” enough in the immediate aftermath of the Soleimani assassination. Ellie Geranmayeh, a Middle East specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank, called the “E3” declaration “one-sided” and said it might do “more harm than good”. “E3 making itself increasingly irrelevant to calculations in both Tehran & DC, and may end up provoking an already cornered Tehran,” she tweeted. Recommended Gideon Rachman America should drop the ‘Dr Evil fallacy’ on assassination The leaders’ statement was part of a broader effort by EU officials and national diplomats to appeal for de-escalation and rescue the nuclear agreement, which has been under intense pressure since President Donald Trump’s administration pulled out in May 2018 and reimposed tough sanctions on Iran. EU foreign ministers are expected to hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Friday. Ms Merkel will travel to Moscow on Saturday to meet President Vladimir Putin, in a hastily arranged trip that reflects deepening concern in both Germany and Russia, a fellow nuclear agreement signatory, about rising Middle East tensions.
The German leader also phoned Mr Johnson and Mr Macron on Sunday and spoke to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday. Steffen Seibert, Ms Merkel’s spokesman, said it was important “not to give up what we’ve achieved too quickly, under the influence of the latest developments”. “That could endanger the progress we’ve made in the fight against [Isis], and we don’t want that,” he said. It was a key priority of Germany to keep the anti-Isis coalition together, he added. Rainer Breul, German foreign ministry spokesman, said the government was also seeking talks with the Iraqis on “how they want to shape the future relationship”, in view of the parliamentary resolution over the weekend demanding the withdrawal of US troops. Germany has suspended its mission for training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, and has confined all its servicemen and women to base. Britain urged the government in Baghdad not to expel foreign troops from the country in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani and an Iraqi militia leader. “The coalition is in Iraq to protect Iraqis and others from the threat from Daesh [Isis] at the request of the Iraqi government,” a spokesman for Mr Johnson said, adding that Dominic Raab, foreign secretary, had spoken to the Iraqi president and prime minister at the weekend. “We urge the Iraqi government to ensure the coalition is able to continue our vital work countering this shared threat.” EU officials were focused on efforts to save the nuclear deal after Iran announced the latest of its escalating breaches of the agreement. Some diplomats and analysts argue that Iran offered some space for diplomacy because it did not say it would ramp up uranium enrichment or end UN monitoring visits. Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, expressed “deep regret” on Monday about Iran’s announcement on breaches of the nuclear deal but made clear the bloc still hoped to preserve it. “Full implementation of #NuclearDeal by all is now more important than ever, for regional stability & global security,” Mr Borrell tweeted. “I will continue working with all participants on way forward.” Mr Borrell has invited Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, for talks in Brussels. Tehran has not yet responded to the move. (Source: FT.com)
06 Jan 20. Esper: U.S. Continues to Deploy, Reposition Troops in Middle East. The United States continues to deploy and reposition troops throughout the region of Iraq and Iran to bolster U.S. security and force protection and to be prepared for any contingency, Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper said.
“Over the last several days, I’ve had many conversations with our partners and allies about the situation in Iraq and the region,” the secretary told reporters at an impromptu Pentagon news conference today.
“It’s been uniform support for our position and our actions, and I continue to convey to them the importance we continue to place on the defeat-ISIS position,” Esper said of the U.S. drone attack that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, one of the most powerful figures in the region.
Deterring Iran from its bad behavior and standing up to that behavior has been going on for 40-plus years, the secretary added. “And … we remain prepared for any contingency with regard to Iran,” he said.
The U.S. message is that the ball is in Iran’s court, and the United States encourages Iran to de-escalate the situation, Esper said, adding that the United States is open to discussing issues and having a more normal relationship with Iran. “But if Iran chooses to go the other path, we are prepared to deal with that and will respond forcefully,” he said.
No decision whatsoever has been made for the United States to leave Iraq, the secretary said, reemphasizing the U.S. commitment to Iraq to defeat ISIS and noting the escalation of attacks by Iranian and proxy groups attacking U.S. forces. In recent months, the secretary said, nearly a dozen such attacks took place, escalating in size, scale and types of weapons, including one attack that killed an American.
Esper said the Iranians fired 31 rockets that weren’t meant to harass, but were designed to kill people and destroy things. “Then we had the siege of the embassy,” he added.
He called the strike that killed the Quds Force leader a matter of self-defense carried out to protect Americans.
“When we looked at this operation, we knew there would be consequences; we knew there’d be risks,” said Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who joined Esper in briefing reporters. “We didn’t take any of it lightly. We knew we’d have to address [the posture of U.S. Central Command troops] for force protection in the immediate aftermath of this particular strike operation.”
“How do you expect us not to respond when they’ve been killing our people for 20 years?” Esper asked. “Soleimani alone has the blood of hundreds of Americans; he’s wounded thousands of American coalition partners. He is a terrorist, a leader of a terrorist organization who’s been killing and attacking Americans for 20-some years, and the blood is on his hands.”
Soleimani was planning attacks on American forces, Esper said. “This whole narrative that’s being turned around is silly,” he added.
“We knew his history, and importantly, we knew his future,” Milley said, noting that while the evidence cannot be discussed, the evidence was compelling that Soleimani was planning, organizing and synchronizing significant combat operations against U.S. military forces in the region and it was an imminent decision-making event.
“We would have been culpably negligent to the American people had we not made the decision we made,” the general said. But even with Soleimani dead, he said, it doesn’t mean the strike eliminated all threats.
“There’s still significant risk operating throughout the Middle East, and specifically in Iraq,” Milley said.
As to the United States attacking Iran’s cultural sites, U.S. forces will follow the laws of armed conflict, Esper said.
Milley also addressed an unsigned letter from Marine Corps Brig. Gen. William H. Seely, the commanding general of Task Force, Iraq, that was addressed to Iraq’s Defense Ministry. The letter was a draft that was sent out unintentionally, the chairman said.
It addressed plans to withdraw American troops from the region, per the Iraqi parliament vote over the weekend to send U.S. troops home, and it was composed because the U.S. military is moving forces around, Milley said.
“We have increased helicopter movement in Iraq between Baghdad and Taji and other camps and stations, and we are bringing in forces from Kuwait,” he explained. “So there are increased levels of U.S. troops movements in rotary-wing helicopters.”
The draft was sent to the Iraqis to get their feedback, Milley said. “The long and the short of it is [that] it was an honest mistake by people trying to do the right things in highly dynamic situations. It should not have been sent.” (Source: US DoD)
06 Jan 20. Indonesia makes largest-ever deployment of troops, equipment to South China Sea island. Key Points:
- Indonesia has deployed two more anti-submarine corvettes and hundreds of troops to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea
- The vessels join other surface combatants, and at least one submarine, which have already been deployed intermittently to Great Natuna Island since 2018
Vice-Admiral Yudo Margono, commander of the Indonesian Armed Forces Joint Regional Command I, inspecting the military line up at Great Natuna Island on 5 January. (Indonesian Armed Forces)
The Indonesian Armed Forces (Tentara Nasional Indonesia: TNI) has stood up at least 600 troops, and two more anti-submarine warfare (ASW) corvettes at Great Natuna Island, the largest of the Natuna Islands cluster in the South China Sea. The additional warships are namely the Kapitan Pattimura (Parchim I) corvettes, KRI Teuku Umar (385) and KRI Tjiptadi (381), while the troops include personnel from the marine corps, air-defence formations, and soldiers from the Indonesian Army’s 1st Composite Battalion. (Source: Jane’s)
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