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31 Aug 19. Typhoon Pulled from Canada Competition. And then there were three.in November 2018 Dassault withdrew the Rafale from Canada’s Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) to procure 88 new fighters for the Royal Canadian Air Force. On August 30, the Typhoon Canada team—comprising Airbus Defence and Space and the UK Ministry of Defence—also withdrew the Eurofighter Typhoon from the competition.
A statement from Airbus said that the team had reached its decision following a detailed review of the final Request for Proposal that was issued on July 23. The statement noted the team’s appreciation for Canada’s commitment to transparency and professional nature of the competition, and also reaffirmed its commitment to Canadian forces and aerospace industry.
Airbus cited two reasons for withdrawing from FFCP, the first of which concerns Norad security requirements, which the Typhoon team said places “too significant of a cost on platforms whose manufacture and repair chains sit outside the United States-Canada 2-EYES community.” Demonstrating how the Typhoon could be integrated into the 2-EYES network without knowing the full technical details would have also been a challenge.
This was believed to be one of the reasons that the Rafale was withdrawn earlier. In the case of the Typhoon, however, it was expected that Norad security requirements would be less of an issue given that, in RAF hands, the aircraft operates within the framework of the Five Eyes intelligence community that comprises Canada, the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand.
Second, the Typhoon team “concluded that the significant recent revision of industrial technological benefits (ITB) obligations does not sufficiently value the binding commitments the Typhoon Canada package was willing to make, and which were one of its major points of focus.”
This referred to the recent changes made to the ITB requirements that were introduced to allow the Lockheed Martin F-35 to compete for FFCP. Under the original terms, in which bidders would have to legally commit to investments in Canada, the F-35 would have been ruled out, as the program is based on companies competing for work. As one of the nine industrial partners in the F-35, Canada signed up to that agreement in 2006. The new ITB requirements permit non-binding industrial target plans, rather than firm commitments.
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The withdrawal of the Typhoon leaves three fighters in the running: the F-35, Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Saab Gripen. Both Boeing and Saab have also voiced their concerns about the changes to ITB requirements. (Source: Google/https://www.ainonline.com)
30 Aug 19. Japan’s military seek eighth straight annual hike in defence spending. Japan’s military has asked for an eighth straight annual increase in defence spending to help pay for U.S.-made interceptor missiles, stealth fighters, and other equipment it wants to counter threats from North Korea and China.
The Ministry of Defence budget proposal released Friday calls for spending to increase 1.2 percent to a record 5.32trn yen (£41.12bn or $50.48bn) in the year starting April 1. Finance ministry officials will scrutinise the request before it is approved by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet. Already one of the world’s biggest military spenders despite a constitution that forbids the possession of weapons to attack other countries, Japan has increased military outlays by a tenth over the past seven years. That growth is being driven by alarm over military build ups by its neighbours.
Japan’s spending, much of it on advanced weapons from the United States, has benefited the likes of Lockheed Martin Corp and Raytheon Co, and worried local contractors such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries who have seen their share of defence spending shrink.
U.S. President Donald Trump has thanked Japan for buying the expensive U.S. equipment, helping curtail criticism of Japan amid trade tensions between Tokyo and Washington.
For the next fiscal year, Japan’s defence officials have asked for 115.6bn yen to buy nine Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighters, including for the first time six short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) B variants that it wants to operate from aircraft carriers. That purchase will help Japan project military power by extending the range at which the country’s Self Defense Forces can operate.
The defence ministry also wants 116.3bn yen to bolster ballistic missile defences (BMD), including money for a new generation of interceptor missiles designed by Raytheon to shoot down incoming warheads in space. It also wants funds for vertical launch systems for ships and two planned ground-based Aegis Ashore radar missile tracking stations. (Source: Reuters)
29 Aug 19. B-2 lands in Iceland for first time. A US Air Force B-2 ‘hot-pit’ refuelling after landing in Iceland for the first time on 28 August. Source: US Air Force/Senior Airman Thomas Barley
A US Air Force B-2 stealth bomber landed in Iceland for the first time on 28 August, ‘hot-pit’ refuelling with its engines still running, US Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) announced in a press release the next day. The aircraft, from the 509th Bomb Wing based at Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, flew from Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford in the UK to Keflavik Air Base in Iceland.
The bomber arrived at RAF Fairford on 27 August, from where it and two other B-2s are temporarily operating as part of a bomber task force. USAFE would not specify how long the deployment would last.
USAFE said in a press release published on 27 August, “The deployment of strategic bombers to the UK helps exercise RAF Fairford as US Air Forces in Europe’s forward operating location for bombers. The deployment also includes joint and allied training in Europe to improve bomber interoperability. Training with partners, allied nations and other US Air Force units contributes to our readiness and enables us to build enduring and strategic relationships necessary to confront a broad range of global challenges.” (Source: IHS Jane’s)
29 Aug 19. Here are the advanced weapons we might see at China’s military parade. China will showcase some domestically produced, advanced military equipment at an upcoming parade, authorities announced Thursday. The parade, to be held Oct. 1 in the capital Beijing, will commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China following the communist victory of nationalist forces in 1949.
According to Chinese state news agency Xinhua, the parade will be bigger than those that commemorated the 50th and 60th founding anniversaries, as well as the military parade in 2015 that commemorated the Allied defeat of imperial Japan in 1945.
Gen. Cai Zhijun, a member of the Chinese Army General Staff, said at a news conference in Beijing on Thursday that China’s People’s Liberation Army “will show some advanced weapons for the first time.”
He did not go into specifics, but Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported that the weapon systems that will make their debut include the DF-41 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile and the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile.
Both missiles are typically fitted with nuclear warheads. The DF-41 is a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle. It’s able to carry 10-12 nuclear warheads, each of which can be directed to a different target.
Photographs of flypast rehearsals for the parade suggest a new version of the Xi’an H-6K bomber and cruise missile carrier will also make an appearance. This variant, reportedly designated the H-6N, is equipped with an in-flight refueling probe to extend its range. The Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet, which entered operational service with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force this year following operational test and evaluation, will also take part in the parade flypast, although this will not be its first appearance at such events.
Cai took pains to note that the size of the military parade was not a sign of aggression and that the People’s Liberation Army was “committed to safeguarding world peace and regional stability.”
“This military parade won’t be targeted at any countries or districts and any specific incidents,” he said. (Source: Defense News)
29 Aug 19. Trump says 8,600 US troops will stay after Afghanistan withdrawal. President Donald Trump said he plans to withdraw thousands of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, but will keep 8,600 there for the foreseeable future, pending the outcome of U.S. peace talks with the Taliban, which appear to be concluding.
“We’re going down to 8,600 and then we make a determination from there as to what happens,” Trump told Fox News Radio, repeating that the U.S. “could win that war so fast, if I wanted to kill 10 million people … which I don’t.”
The U.S. has about 14,000 troops in Afghanistan, alongside international troops, to advise and assist Afghan defense forces and to fight extremist groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaida.
Trump said the bulk of these could be withdrawn, but stressed that the U.S. will maintain some kind of troop presence in Afghanistan.
“You have to keep a presence,” he said, adding that the U.S. would be reducing troops “very substantially.”
U.S. Central Command on Thursday told Military Times that no troops have yet been ordered out of Afghanistan.
“The mission has not changed,” said Army Lt. Col. Earl Brown, a CENTCOM spokesman.
The president campaigned on getting the U.S. out of the war, but efforts to withdraw U.S. troops have been slowed because military leaders argue that there is still a need for American counterterrorism forces, as well as the ongoing campaign to train the Afghan troops.
Lawmakers, too, have pressured Trump on his withdrawal plans. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., was mulling legislation to backstop a withdrawal, and he published an opinion piece Thursday with retired Army Gen. Jack Keane to warn a complete withdrawal would risk turning Afghanistan into a launchpad for terrorist attacks against the U.S.
The U.S. has pressed for a cease-fire and a framework for inter-Afghan talks, but so far the Taliban have refused to recognize the Afghan government, dismissing it as a U.S. puppet and continuing to stage near-daily attacks across Afghanistan.
Trump’s comments came a day after Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters, “I’m not using the withdraw word right now.”
Dunford, who commanded international forces in Afghanistan in 2013 and 2014, struck a cautionary note, saying any deal with the Taliban would be based on security conditions on the ground and that Afghan forces aren’t yet able to secure the country without help from allied forces.
“It’s our judgment that the Afghans need support to deal with [Afghanistan’s current] level of violence,” he said.(Source: Defense News)
29 Aug 19. Iran – Semnan: Iran reportedly conducts third failed space launch rocket vehicle test of 2019. On 29 August, imagery released by international media outlets indicates that Iran recently conducted a third failed launch in 2019 of a satellite into space via a domestically produced rocket from the Imam Khomeini Space Centre in Semnan Province. However, the Iranian government has not officially acknowledged the failed test and there were no active NOTAMs in place covering space-launch activity from Semnan for FIR Tehran (OIIX) covering the test date/times, altitude restrictions and/or geographic area affected. Iran previously conducted failed tests of space launch rocket vehicles via domestically produced rockets from the Imam Khomeini Space Centre in 2019 on 6 February and 15 January as well as a successful launch on 27 July 2017, without issuing appropriate NOTAMs prior to the events. Open source commercial satellite imagery from 29 August indicates Iran may attempt an additional near-term follow-on space launch rocket vehicle test from the Imam Khomeini Space Centre, which could take place within the next month. The US FAA has a standing notice and background information advising operators to exercise caution when transiting Iranian airspace due to unannounced military activity and missile launches in FIR Tehran (OIIX) (NOTAM KICZ A0016/18). On 21 June, the US FAA issued an updated NOTAM for FIR Tehran (OIIX) covering the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman which prohibits US civil aviation operators from conducting flight operations over these areas at all altitudes until further notice (KICZ A0019/19).
Analysis
The US specifically stated that it views such launches as a violation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231, which requires Iran to refrain from “any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology”. Though Iran claims space launches incorporating long-range rocket technology are for peaceful purposes only and not a violation of UNSCR 2231, the US believes the activity is a cover for testing ballistic missile components. International media outlet reporting indicates Iran conducted a test launch of a Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in the overnight time-frame of 24-25 July. However, there were no appropriate NOTAMs in place covering ballistic missile launch activity for FIR Tehran (OIIX) covering the test date/times, altitude restrictions and/or geographic area affected. Iran previously conducted a Qaim-1 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) from an underground facility at an unspecified location, without issuing appropriate NOTAMs prior to the launch in early June. Additional multi-variant Iranian missile launches in the southern over-water areas of FIR Tehran (OIIX), SRBM/MRBM activity in Kermanshah/Fars/Semnan/Isfahan/Hamedan provinces, space launch rocket vehicle tests from the Imam Khomeini Space Centre and/or operational ballistic missile strikes into Iraq/Syria are likely during 2019, with a specific flash-point being the next 30-day time-frame. We continue to assess southern Iran, to include over-water areas of the Persian Gulf, Strait of Homuz and the Gulf of Oman, to be a HIGH risk airspace operating environment at all altitudes; this is being kept under constant review. We continue to assess the remainder of northern Iran to be a MODERATE risk airspace operating environment above FL260 and HIGH risk below FL260.
Risk area recommendation: Comprehensive risk mitigation measures
- Flights below FL260 not advised; essential flights over FL260 via measures below
- Defer diverting from flight plan with the exception of life threatening situations
- Security and operational risk-based identification of pre-planned divert airports
- Reliable and redundant communications with an established communications plan
- Fully-coordinated and robust emergency response plan supplemented by asset tracking
Advice
Approvals: As a precaution, conduct operational risk-based identification of divert and alternate airports for flight schedules with planned stops at aerodromes in the country or with overflight of the airspace. Operators are advised to ensure flight plans are correctly filed, attain proper special approvals for flight operations to sensitive locations and obtain relevant overflight permits prior to departure. In addition, ensure crews scheduled to operate to or over the country in the near term are fully aware of the latest security situation.
Missile Launches: Unannounced rocket and missile launches that transit airspace used by civilian aircraft pose a latent threat to operations at all altitudes. The country has a history of not issuing adequate notice of activities in its airspace that could affect flight safety. Multiple safety of flight concerns emanate from a situation where a missile malfunctions during the boost, mid-course or terminal phases of flight. Such an event would cause the missile to fly an unplanned trajectory and altitude profile which could expose overflying aircraft to mid-air collision, route diversion and or debris splashdown issues. Leading civil aviation governing bodies have standing notices advising operators of the threat to civil aviation in the airspace due to unannounced military activity, rocket test firings and or missile launches.
Aviation Safety: Do not act based on unverified information; however, operators should be flexible in their itineraries and prepared to adjust them due to an increased potential for heightened aviation safety and/or security measures for the airspace and/or airports in the near term resulting from the situation. Aviation safety incidents have the potential to cause follow-on disruption to airport security operations. Review internal and external mechanisms for aviation safety reporting. Any revisions to processes should account for air and ground safety occurrence provisions as part of a wider aviation risk management strategy to protect aircraft, passengers and crew. In addition, ensure emergency response and communications plans are up to date to enhance continuity during times of crisis. (Source: Osprey)
29 Aug 19. China Should Hasten Defense System Deployment in South China Sea: Analysts. A US Navy destroyer sailed near Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea under the pretense of “freedom of navigation” on Wednesday. Chinese analysts believe the US is once again trying to provoke China and are calling for the speeding up of defense system deployment. The US destroyer Wayne E. Meyer carried out the operation, traveling within 12 nautical miles of the Yongshu Reef and the Meiji Reef, according to Reann Mommsen, a spokesperson for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet.
Zhang Junshe, a senior research fellow at the PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute, told the Global Times on Wednesday that sending warships into waters adjacent to Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea under the guise of “freedom of navigation” has become a common means for the US to stir up tensions in the region.
The US’ move shows that it does not want to see stability in the South China Sea, Zhang noted, as they “fear that the easing of the situation in the region will make their reasons for strengthening their military presence invalid in the South China Sea.”
Countries including the Philippines and Malaysia have expressed their opposition to the US’ provocations because there is no problem in conducting freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, Zhang said.
“Neighboring countries do not want tensions in the region,” Zhang told the Global Times, saying the US navy ships are threatening Chinese sovereignty and security. “As the US continues to send warships into the South China Sea, Washington has become the main villain who undermines the peace and stability of the region.”
Retired navy captain Tian Shichen told the Global Times that the US’ move showed the US military’s “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea have become more normalized, while it is also adjusting its operational methods to bring more pressure to bear on China’s island and reef garrison.
Tian said the US might play other tricks in the future, such as organizing joint operations with other countries, sending two warships to enter the waters adjacent to the island, even sending warships and aircraft together to the waters and airspace near the island.
The actions actually violate United Nations conventions on the law of the sea and domestic laws of coastal countries, Tian noted.
The “excessive maritime claims” which the US raised to accuse other countries were based on its own standards rather than international standards to judge other coastal countries’ marine policies, Tian said, noting the US is adopting its own version of international laws to replace genuine ones, which is not acceptable to the international community.
Tian believes that by the US’ continuing such actions, it means there’s a higher chance of an encounter between Chinese and US forces both in the air and at sea, which further increases the likelihood of accidents.
“As such actions have become normal, China should respond with reason and law. But we also should speed up our defense system implementation on the islands and reefs in the region,” Tian said.
“The US navy sails thousands of miles, using US taxpayer’s money as a provocation on China’s doorstep, so we should take this opportunity for practical military training, to get used to this kind of ‘cat and mouse’ game.” (Source: defense-aerospace.com/Global Times)
29 Aug 19. Defiant China to conduct renewed war games in proximity to Taiwan. Amid mounting regional and global tensions, China has announced plans for a range of new war games near the disputed island of Taiwan, bringing together a range of capabilities from across the People’s Liberation Army – as the rising superpower continues to flex its muscles and challenge the regional ‘rules based order’.
Like every ascendant economic, political and strategic power, China has used its period of rapid industrialisation and economic expansion to begin establishing its position within the broader global context – fuelled by a long memory of a “century of humiliation” at the hands of Western imperialism, finally ending with the successful Communist Revolution in 1949, China and its political leaders have dedicated the nation to establishing a new era of Chinese global primacy.
As China’s position within the global order has evolved and its ambitions towards the Indo-Pacific, in particular, have become increasingly apparent, the Chinese government, driven by an extremely ambitious leader, President Xi Jinping, has identified a number of factors of both ‘internal’ and ‘external’ concern for the rising superpower’s status.
Central to these ‘internal’ focuses is the ‘rogue’ province of Taiwan – separated by the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s which has long served as a potential flash point between China and the US, particularly as China’s ambitions and willingness to use force to intimidate Indo-Pacific neighbours becomes the new status quo.
The US has moved in recent months to directly confront the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese regime, both in terms of the ongoing trade war between the two powerhouses, the renewed American presence in the Indo-Pacific, including freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, and the growing number of rearmament and capability modernisation deals struck between the US and Taiwan.
China’s recently released Defence White Paper, China’s National Defense in the New Era, recognises America’s resurgence and has moved swiftly to characterise it as a period of “intensified competition among major countries, significantly increased its defence expenditure, pushed for additional capacity in nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defence, and undermined global strategic stability”.
The Taiwan issue and American interference
In response to a number of recent arms deals approved by the White House, namely the approval of a US$8bn deal to supply Taiwan with up to 66 advanced Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets, a US$223.6m deal to provide Stinger surface-to-air missiles and a US$2bn deal to supply the Taiwanese Army with 102 M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks, China has issued strong rebuke’s to both Taipei and Washington.
With the new Defence White Paper clearly articulating the issue of Taiwan’s independence as a matter of internal security, part of a larger suite of ‘internal’ issues, the nation has committed to using force to resolve the issue, including against external influences, read the US and its regional partners, as a means of supporting China’s primary national defence aims.
China remains resolute regarding the issue of Taiwan, stating: “China has the firm resolve and the ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will never allow the secession of any part of its territory by anyone, any organisation or any political party by any means at any time. We make no promise to renounce the use of force, and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is by no means targeted at our compatriots in Taiwan, but at the interference of external forces and the very small number of ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and their activities. The PLA will resolutely defeat anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from China and safeguard national unity at all costs.” (Emphasis added).
In a sign of China’s growing concerns that Taiwan may move to formally declare independence should the situation in Hong Kong boil over, resulting in Chinese military units actively engaging pro-democracy protesters, the rising superpower has kicked-off an expansive war games, cordoning a 3,000 square kilometre zone in the East China Sea.
The Chinese defence ministry and maritime administration have issued warnings for all vessels not to enter the waters off the east coast of China’s Zhejiang province – the drills are expected to involve a range of units active with the East Sea Fleet, including Type 052D guided-missile destroyers, similar to the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke and Royal Australian Navy’s Hobart Class vessels.
The naval task group is also expected to include Type 056 corvettes and Type 054A guided missile frigates, and comes just months after a series of major exercises in the Taiwan Strait ahead of the island nation’s elections and recent revelations that China’s second aircraft carrier had recently returned from builders sea trials, including aircraft operations as the nation continues to ramp up its capacity to act as a great power.
Further compounding matters is the recent revelation that China had begun the early stages of carrier integration for its domestically designed and manufactured J-20 fifth-generation fighter aircraft, marking a major step in the superpower’s pursuit of a contemporary, highly capable fixed-wing naval aviation capability that could directly counter American and allied forces in the region.
Questions for Australia
Despite Australia’s enduring commitment to the Australia-US alliance, serious questions remain for Australia in the new world order of President Donald Trump’s America, as a number of allies have been targeted by the maverick President for relying on the US for their security against larger state-based actors, which has seen the President actively pressuring key allies, particularly NATO allies, to renegotiate the deals.
Enhancing Australia’s capacity to act as an independent power, incorporating great power-style strategic economic, diplomatic and military capability serves as a powerful symbol of Australia’s sovereignty and evolving responsibilities in supporting and enhancing the security and prosperity of Indo-Pacific Asia. Shifting the public discussion away from the default Australian position of “it is all a little too difficult, so let’s not bother” will provide unprecedented economic, diplomatic, political and strategic opportunities for the nation.
However, as events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition? (Source: Defence Connect)
28 Aug 19. Disputes Between U.S. Allies Hinder Indo-Pacific Security Cooperation. South Korea’s announcement that it will not renew an information-sharing agreement with Japan when it expires in November complicates the ability of the United States to continue its trilateral security cooperation with both countries, a senior Defense Department official said.
South Korea announced last week that it would not renew the General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, with Japan. The agreement expires Nov. 22, and both countries announced this week that they had removed each other from their trusted trade partner “white lists.”
“It is remarkable how quickly political disputes can push aside discussion of our cooperation and our future progress that our countries seek to accomplish,” said Randall Schriver, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, during a discussion today at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The GSOMIA was a point of discussion when he and Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper visited South Korea and Japan earlier this month, Schriver said. “But in terms of the actual decision to not renew,” he added, “we were not forewarned.”
The existing agreement spells out a more efficient way for Japan, South Korea and the United States to communicate critical security information to each other, Schriver said. One way it benefits the United States, he said, is that it allows Japan and South Korea to communicate directly with each other, ensuring the United States isn’t needed as a middleman to facilitate communications. The benefit to South Korea and Japan, he said, is the increased efficiency of communication between the neighboring countries.
“GSOMIA is an agreement through which they can share information directly — sensitive intelligence information — and do so in a timely way, as fast as technology can move information,” Schriver said. “In the complex security environment we are in, often times, time is of the essence. So when you are looking at potential missile launches, or you are looking at other activity, you don’t want a cumbersome, unwieldy process for information sharing, which is what we had before, with us in the middle, passing information back and forth between the two parties, but not between one another.”
Plenty of scenarios of interest to both Japanese and South Korean security don’t involve the United States, Schriver noted, making an agreement like GSOMIA useful.
In counterpiracy operations, for example, should South Korea get information about a threat to a Japanese aircraft, or vice versa, time is of the essence, he said, and having to relay the information from one to the other via the United States would take up valuable time.
South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon has said it’s possible for his nation to reenter the GSOMIA. Schriver said if that doesn’t happen, it will damage security cooperation among the United States, Japan and South Korea.
If the agreement is terminated, he said, “it means that the ability to share information and intelligence among the three parties becomes more cumbersome and unwieldy, and in the security environment we are operating in, that adds risk and is suboptimal.”
“When you are looking at challenges ranging from ballistic missiles to cyber and space, all these things, we are much better off when we are removing obstacles and facilitating the exchange of information, not making it more difficult,” he said.
Schriver said the only winners when Japan and South Korea don’t cooperate are their competitors.
Both nations, he said, share a variety of common security goals, including a commitment to a fully verified denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Both nations are also active participants and leaders in the Proliferation Security Initiative, an international effort to halt the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, missiles and other similar materials. Both continue to cooperate with the United States to support efforts to counter terrorism and violent extremism. Both are working to prevent piracy in the Indian Ocean, and both continue to participate in either joint or trilateral military exercises with the United States.
“In the immediate near term, we do call on the Republic of Korea to recommit to GSOMIA and to renew that agreement, and we also call on both sides to participate in meaningful dialogue to address their differences,” Schriver said. “Meaningful dialogue means coming to the table with a mindset of problem solving, not a mindset of airing grievances further.”
Northeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific region and the world will be safer only when the United States, Japan and South Korea work together in solidarity, Schriver said.
“Our three countries are resilient, and we share common security objectives. And our trilateral defense cooperation has withstood the test of time to meet our security challenges and will do so in the future, should all three countries commit to it,” he said. (Source: US DoD)
28 Aug 19. Trump adviser Bolton tells Ukraine: Beware Chinese influence. U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser told Ukraine on Wednesday to avoid being lured into China’s orbit by what he called Beijing’s “debt diplomacy” amid a Chinese move to buy a Ukrainian aerospace giant. The United States sees pro-Western Ukraine as an ally on the frontline of its geopolitical tussle with Russia, Kiev’s Soviet-era overlord, but Bolton used his two-day trip to warn of intellectual property theft by China and unfair trade practices.
John Bolton’s warning to Ukraine comes as Washington is locked in a trade war with Beijing and has sounded the alarm over China’s rapid technological advances and the global clout of its technology giant Huawei.
Asked about a pending deal for China to acquire Ukrainian aircraft engine maker Motor Sich, Bolton told reporters he did not want to discuss specific transactions and that such deals were a sovereign matter for Kiev.
But Bolton, who is the first senior U.S. official to visit Ukraine since President Volodymyr Zelenskiy swept to power in May, made clear that Washington disapproved of the deal.
“We laid out our concerns about … unfair Chinese trade practices, threats to national security we’ve seen in the United States…” he said at a news conference in Kiev.
The Chinese firm Beijing Skyrizon Aviation Industry Investment signed a deal in 2016 to acquire a stake in Motor Sich, although the deal was blocked by Ukrainian security services who opened an investigation into suspected sabotage.
A series of court hearings were held, but the court ruled that the shares could be sold and a deal is now pending approval by Ukraine’s national anti-monopoly committee.
Motor Sich was forced to sever ties with Russia, its biggest client, due to sanctions imposed by Kiev on Moscow to punish it for its 2014 annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The output of Motor Sich, which makes engines for both civil and defence planes and helicopters, fell 40 percent after it lost access to the Russian market.
Bolton said he had an “outstanding” meeting with Zelenskiy, writing on Twitter that he was “very impressed by his commitment to real reform to benefit the Ukrainian people”.
Zelenskiy, a former television comedy star, scored a landslide election victory in May and strengthened his power base in a parliamentary election last month.
Bolton said he had also discussed the possibility of a meeting between Zelenskiy and Trump in Poland soon. (Source: Reuters)
28 Aug 19. Lebanon – South Governorate: Lebanese Army reportedly engages two suspected IDF drones via surface-to-air fire. At approximately 1630Z on 28 August, the Lebanese Army reportedly engaged two suspected Israel Defence Forces (IDF) drones via surface-to-air fire over South Governorate along the Israeli border. It remains unclarified at this time at what altitude the incidents occurred or what type of weapon systems were employed during engagements and the IDF drones are not expected to have been damaged as a result. Lebanese government reporting indicates that IDF air assets have been heavily active over FIR Beirut (OLBB) throughout the past 72 hours. The IDF is suspected to have conducted a kamikaze drone strike on an Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement target related to the groups’ “precision guided missile program” in Lebanon’s capital of Beirut on 25 August. In addition, three suspected IDF airstrikes targeted a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command (PFLP-GC) site in the Bekka Valley of Lebanon along the Syrian border on 26 August. In response, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has threatened that the air defence units of the group would target Israeli drones over Lebanon going forward. In addition, the Ministry of Defence of Lebanon indicated on 27 August that it maintains the right to defend Lebanese territory and airspace by all means. Both the US and UK civil aviation authorities have issued notices for airspace areas neighbouring Syria, outlining the risk posed to civil aviation within 200 miles (322 km) of the country, which includes the entirety of FIR Beirut (OLBB), due to increased military activity, GPS disruption and errant missile launches (KICZ A0009/18, EGTT V0002/19).
Analysis
The Lebanese Army is assessed to be in possession of a limited quantity of Russian-made 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7 GRAIL) manportable air defence systems (MANPADS) and Zu-23-2 anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) pieces, capable below FL200. Hezbollah is assessed to be in possession of AAA and MANPADS capable of engaging aerial targets at altitudes up to FL260, to include Russian-made Igla-series weapons and Iranian-made Misagh-1/2 variants. Several credible reports since 2014 indicate that Syria and/or Iran have transferred limited numbers of Russian-made Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 GREYHOUND) and 9K317 Buk-M2E (SA-17 GRIZZLY) conventional surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems to Hezbollah. However, the operational status of Hezbollah procured conventional SAM systems in Lebanon and/or Syria remains unclarified at this time and we continue to monitor this topic closely. The SA-17 is effective up to FL820 and out to 32 miles (50 km) and the SA-22 is capable of engaging targets at altitudes up to FL490 and at ranges out to 12.4 miles (20 km). In addition, multiple suspected IDF airstrikes into Syria have reportedly targeted intended conventional SAM system weapons transfers to Hezbollah from Iranian and/or Syrian sources. Similar suspected IDF airstrikes into Syria have occurred on approximately 100 occasions since 2014 with at least 14 sets of strikes taking place during 2019 alone. Previously, the IDF conducted a series of airstrikes against an Assad-regime military site in the neighboring Syrian capital of Damascus on 24 August which reportedly thwarted an Iranian advanced attack plan to target sites in Israel via armed drones launched from Syria. During the majority of these events, Assad-regime air defence units have employed conventional SAM systems in response to the IDF airstrikes. A number of the suspected IDF airstrikes have taken place over FIR Beirut (OLBB) airspace and anti-aircraft missile debris emanating from Syria has been recovered in Lebanese territory on at least nine occasions since 2018. We continue to assess Lebanon to be a HIGH risk airspace environment at all altitudes, this is being kept under constant review.
Risk area recommendation: Comprehensive risk mitigation measures
- Flights below FL260 not advised; essential flights over FL260 via measures below
- Defer diverting from flight plan with the exception of life threatening situations
- Security and operational risk-based identification of pre-planned divert airports
- Reliable and redundant communications with an established communications plan
- Fully-coordinated and robust emergency response plan supplemented by asset tracking
Advice
Approvals: As a precaution, conduct operational risk-based identification of divert and alternate airports for flight schedules with planned stops at aerodromes in the country or with overflight of the airspace. Operators are advised to ensure flight plans are correctly filed, attain proper special approvals for flight operations to sensitive locations and obtain relevant overflight permits prior to departure. In addition, ensure crews scheduled to operate to or over the country in the near term are fully aware of the latest security situation.
Military Air Activity: Increased military air operations have the potential to cause airspace congestion and impact the safety of civil aviation flights. Any significant increase in the amount of air operations over the country may impact the availability of airports along with access to the airspace. Aviation operators should monitor airport/airspace-specific airspace-specific notices, bulletins, circulars, advisories, prohibitions and restrictions prior to departure to avoid flight schedule disruption.
Shoot-down Policy: The country has an aggressive air intercept and shoot-down policy which allows air and air defence forces to intercept and disable aerial targets violating airspace regulations. Military air and air defence assets may be employed to down aerial targets under the auspice of the policy. While legal civil aviation flights are unlikely to be directly targeted, there remains a latent but credible risk of misidentification and interception by military air and air defence assets. (Source: Osprey)
27 Aug 19. Iran Says Missile Program Non-Negotiable. Iran has rejected France’s proposal to include the missile program in a new round of negotiations, an informed source told Press TV on Monday. The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Iran has already responded to the French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal, stressing that the country’s missile program is not up for discussions. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said earlier on Monday that he is open to meet anybody if national interests is at stake, official IRNA news agency reported. Tehran has stressed that for any talks with the United States over the thorny issues, Washington should re-embrace the Iranian nuclear deal and its obligation under the accord.
U.S. President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the Iranian international 2015 nuclear deal last year, and urged Iran for renewed talks on its nuclear and missile programs and its regional role. According to the source, Iran has also rejected France’s proposals for talks on Iran’s regional influence. (Source: defense-aerospace.com/Xinhua)
27 Aug 19. Israeli drone crashes while another explodes in Beirut. Crash came shortly after Israel confirmed it bombed Iranian forces inside Syria. Two Israeli drones have crashed in Beirut with one exploding next to an office belonging to Hizbollah, according to the Iran-backed Shia paramilitary group as well as Lebanese officials. Israel has not commented on the drones, which fell in the Hizbollah-dominated district of the Lebanese capital early yesterday morning. But the crash came shortly after Israel confirmed it had bombed Iranian forces inside neighbouring Syria, foiling what Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, said would have been “an attack against Israel”. Israel’s military said on Saturday night that it had prevented “multiple killer drones” attacking Israel “by striking Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shia Militia targets in Syria”. Iran, which Israel and the US accuse of spreading its influence in the Middle East through armed proxy groups such as Hizbollah, has a military presence in Syria, where it supports the ruling Assad regime in Syria’s eight-year civil war. The air strikes and drone activity are the latest signs that the proxy war between Israel and Iran is heating up. Unconfirmed reports that Israel has also attacked Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq in recent weeks have stoked fears that Lebanon and Iraq could be drawn into the conflict. Saad Hariri, the Lebanese prime minister, said on Sunday that the Israeli aircraft had violated Lebanon’s sovereignty. Israel has frequently targeted Hizbollah inside Lebanon, which shares a border with Israel. The first Israeli drone fell in Beirut’s southern Dahiyeh suburb without causing damage, while the second exploded nearby in mid-air, according to a statement by the Lebanese army. The explosion damaged a building housing Hizbollah’s media operations. “Hizbollah did not bring down any aircraft,” said Mohammad Afif, Hizbollah’s spokesperson. Three people suffered minor injuries, the Lebanese National News Agency reported. The Israeli bombing in Syria on Saturday night south-east of Damascus came just days after unnamed US officials told the Associated Press that Israel was behind a series of strikes against Iranian proxy groups in Iraq. Syrian state media said air defences intercepted incoming missiles. There were no confirmed casualty reports. Mr Netanyahu said that “Iran has no immunity anywhere. Our forces operate in every sector against the Iranian aggression.” On Sunday, Yoav Galant, a former general and member of Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet, said Israel “will not allow” Iran to use Syria to “transfer balance-changing weapons to Lebanon”. (Source: FT.com)
27 Aug 19. Japan says North Korea developing warheads to penetrate missile defences. Pyongyang appears to be developing warheads to penetrate a ballistic missile shield defending Japan, the country’s defence chief said on Tuesday, pointing to the irregular trajectories of the latest missiles launched by North Korea.
Defence Minister Takeshi Iwaya told a news conference that Japan believes the rockets were a new short-range ballistic missile, according to a ministry spokesman who confirmed his comments carried by domestic media.
Recent short-range missile tests by Pyongyang have stoked alarm in neighbouring Japan even as U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the launches as unimportant. Saturday’s test firings came a day after Seoul said it was ending a military intelligence-sharing pact with Tokyo, amid a worsening spat over wartime forced labour. Iwaya and other Japanese officials called Seoul’s decision “irrational” as the threat posed by North Korea grows.
Japan and the United States have Aegis destroyers deployed in the Sea of Japan armed with interceptor missiles designed to destroy warheads in space. Japan also plans to build two land-based Aegis batteries to bolster its ballistic missile shield. Those defence systems, however, are designed to counter projectiles on regular and therefore, predictable, trajectories, and any variation in flight path would make interception trickier. Detailed analysis of the latest North Korean launches was underway with the United States, an official of South Korea’s defence ministry said on Tuesday. (Source: Reuters)
23 Aug 19. China Escalates Coercion Against Vietnam’s Longstanding Oil and Gas Activity in the South China Sea. The Department of Defense is greatly concerned by China’s continued efforts to violate the rules-based international order throughout the Indo-Pacific. Recently, China resumed its coercive interference in Vietnam’s longstanding oil and gas activities in the South China Sea (SCS), directly contradicting Chinese Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe’s pledge at the Shangri-La Dialogue that China would “stick to the path of peaceful development.” China’s actions stand in contrast to the United States’ vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, in which all nations, large and small, are secure in their sovereignty, free from coercion, and able to pursue economic growth consistent with accepted international rules and norms.
China will not win the trust of its neighbors nor the respect of the international community by maintaining its bullying tactics. Its actions to coerce ASEAN claimants, station offensive military systems, and enforce an unlawful maritime claim raise serious doubts over China’s credibility. The United States will continue to support efforts by our allies and partners to ensure freedom of navigation and economic opportunity throughout the entire Indo-Pacific. (Source: US DoD)
27 Aug 19. UK Armed Forces Minister visits Ghana to discuss regional security. The UK Armed Forces Minister Mark Lancaster has arrived in Ghana as part of a visit aimed at enhancing defence cooperation and reaffirming commitment to the African nation. During the visit, Lancaster will emphasise the UK Government’s continuing support to help Ghana address rising security tensions in the region. The meeting will help reiterate the partnership’s objective to work towards achieving a secure and prosperous Ghana and wider sub-region.
Discussions with Ghana Vice-President Alhaji Dr Mahamudu Bawumia will be centred on regional security threats posed by evolving dynamics to Ghana’s north. The country also faces threats from other factors such as piracy, smuggling and fishing in the Gulf of Guinea. Ghana intends to neutralise organised crime and illegal activities in its territorial waters as 90% of its trade is linked to the sea. The UK is offering its support to the ECOWAS Zone F Multinational Maritime Coordination Centre (MMCC), based in Accra.
The MMCC includes Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. It will work in coordination with two other centres for combined maritime security drills. Officials will also focus on responses to security challenges in the region. Lancaster is also scheduled to meet other Ghana officials, including National Security Minister Albert Kan Dapaah and Deputy Defence Minister Major Derrick Oduro.
British High Commissioner Iain Walker said: “The visit of the Rt Hon minister of armed forces deepens the strong security ties between Ghana and UK, demonstrating that collaboration is key. As Ghana and the UK change, it is clear through the partnership we continue to forge, we move towards a common secure and prosperous future.”
Lancaster will also visit other partner nations in West Africa during the official trip. In May, the UK entered a partnership agreement with Ghana to cooperate in areas such as economic development, regional security, health, education and inclusion. (Source: army-technology.com)
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