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Military And Security Developments
Dec 18.
- Egypt-Israel: Major gas deal will likely ease diplomatic tensions, improve security co-ordination. On 17 December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his government had approved a USD 35bn gas deal with Egypt. Under the agreement, the operating partners of the Leviathan offshore gas field will sell approximately 9.91 square miles (around 25.66 sq km) of gas to Egypt until 2040, or until the contract is fulfilled. Notably, Israel’s Ministry of Energy and Leviathan’s operating companies signed the deal in August, though the Israeli government delayed the final approval amid escalating political tensions with Egypt regarding the war in Gaza. This indicates a likely US-backed détente between the two countries, increasing their political co-ordination on border security in 2026 and regarding the ceasefire and peace plan in Gaza. Furthermore, the deal will almost certainly strengthen Egypt’s energy security throughout 2026, mitigating operational disruption risks to its electricity grid and easing risks for energy-intensive industries, particularly cement, fertilisers and steel manufacturing.
- Syria: Counter-terrorism operations underscore persistent IS attack threat in run-up to Christmas. On 17 December, Syria’s interior ministry announced that the security forces arrested a suspected Islamic State (IS) member and seized drones and explosives during a raid on an IS cell in the Dummar district of the capital Damascus. On 16 December, the security forces also announced the arrest of eight IS members in Idlib (Idlib governorate) and Aleppo (Aleppo governorate). The operations came days after an IS-affiliated gunman killed two US military personnel and one civilian interpreter in Palmyra (Homs governorate). We assess that US pressure on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to intensify counter-terrorism operations across Syria will increase markedly. Further security operations are likely in al-Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, Homs and Raqqa governorates in the coming days, increasing the risk of sporadic clashes and staff exposure to crossfire. Additionally, heightened ethno-religious tensions in the run-up to Christmas Day (25 December) will create a security environment wherein the likelihood of IS-linked attacks is elevated. This will especially affect areas near churches and within concentrated Christian population centres across Aleppo and Damascus, as well as along the Lebanon-Syria border.
Dec 17.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
IRAN
- Iran has likely prioritised re-developing its missile production capabilities in recent months, increasing risks of Israel engaging in airstrikes on military facilities in the medium term.
- Amid mounting fiscal pressure, Iran increased fuel prices for purchases over 160 litres per month, increasing the risk of anti-government protests in the coming month.
ISRAEL
- Israeli civilians attacked an ethnic-Arab Israeli woman in Jaffa (Tel Aviv district), increasing ethno-religious tensions and the risk of radicalisation among Israel’s Arab population.
PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES
- GAZA STRIP: Israel’s strike targeting a top Hamas commander in Gaza is likely to be a ceasefire breach, highlighting sustained security risks across the strip and elevated tensions with the US.
- WEST BANK: Two shooting incidents in Bethlehem governorate underscore risks of crossfire exposure during the Christmas holiday season, amid escalating settler violence and unrest risks.
- WEST BANK: The Israeli government continues to approve the expansion of settlements throughout the West Bank, compounding ethno-religious and regional tensions.
- Iraq: Operation targeting IS underscores group’s persistent threat in Iraq, resurgence concerns. Earlier on 17 December, the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (ICTS) announced the arrest of six Islamic State (IS) members in a series of operations conducted in co-ordination with the security forces in Kurdistan region. Four IS couriers and logistical suppliers were apprehended in Kirkuk governorate, while two additional suspects were detained in Mosul (Nineveh governorate) and the capital Baghdad. Separately, on 16 December, the authorities arrested a senior IS member specialising in bomb-making. These arrests underscore the persistent threat IS poses in Iraq, despite the group’s territorial defeat in 2017. The incidents also highlight security risks to personnel from attacks, assassinations and kidnappings, especially in Diyala, Kirkuk and Saladin governorates. The operations underscore heightened concerns over a potential IS resurgence, particularly following two high-level attacks in Syria over the past week. While IS activity in Iraq remains stable, we assess that the rising regional instability linked to the group will possibly deter foreign direct investment into Iraq in the coming months. This will increase financial risks for locally engaged businesses due to higher security costs and insurance premiums.
Dec 16.
- Turkey-Eurasia region: Drone interception points to conflict spillover risks, operational disruption. On 15 December, Turkish F-16 fighter jets shot down a drone approaching Turkish airspace from the Black Sea over a ‘secure area outside residential zones’. While it remains unclear whether the interception occurred inside Turkish airspace, the defence ministry stated that the drone had lost control and posed a safety risk. Although ownership has not been confirmed, the drone was likely connected to Russian or Ukrainian military activity (though its operational purpose remains unknown). Regardless, the incident highlights increasing spillover risks facing Turkey from conflict in the Black Sea, with Ukraine also having targeted a tanker near Turkey’s northern coast on 2 December. These dynamics will likely continue to drive maritime and airspace disruption in northern Turkey, increasing risks for ships, port operations and regional logistics (while also exacerbating supply chain and operational risks for locally engaged businesses). We assess that heightened security concerns will possibly moderate footfall in some Turkish Black Sea destinations, including Samsun (Samsun province) and Trabzon (Trabzon province), marginally increasing financial risks therein. We do not assess that this risk extends to Istanbul (Istanbul province), at present.
- Iran: Militant attacks will trigger further waves of security crackdown, arbitrary arrests. On 15 December, unidentified assailants killed three police officers and one civilian in an attack on a checkpoint at the entrance to the city of Fahraj (Kerman province). Notably, the attack comes a week after a similar gun attack in Zahedan (Sistan and Baluchestan province), which killed three Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members. While no group has claimed responsibility for the incidents, we assess that both attacks are likely connected and were carried out by one of the local jihadist Sunni groups active in these provinces, including Ansar al-Fuqan and Jaysh al-Adl. There is also a possibility that the Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) carried out the attack. As such, the authorities will highly likely maintain an augmented security presence in both provinces throughout the next four weeks at least. This will include checkpoints on provincial highways, particularly along the Fahraj-Zahedan road, triggering travel delays and increasing staff exposure to petty corruption. In the coming days, the attacks are also likely to drive a heavy security crackdown in Sistan and Baluchestan province, increasing the risks of arbitrary arrests and reactionary local protests, fuelling existing ethno-religious tensions.
Dec 15.
- Morocco: Heavy rain will continue in coming days, sustaining transport disruption, health risks. On 14 November, heavy rain-induced flash flooding killed at least 37 people in the coastal city of Safi (Marrakesh-Safi region). The floods submerged around 70 homes and businesses; debris also blocked many roads. While water levels in Safi decreased by the evening of 14 November, moderate-to-heavy rain is expected to cover large parts of western Morocco – including Tangier (Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceima region) and the capital Rabat – in the early hours of 16 November. This will drive the risk of further flash flooding and associated threats to the wellbeing of staff, including due to potential injuries or deaths caused by debris from damaged infrastructure, as well as road traffic collisions and drowning. Flooding will also increase the risk of water contamination and spread of infectious disease, which localised instances of dehydration will almost certainly exacerbate. In Safi, we assess that damage to infrastructure and assets will likely drive supply chain, communication and operational disruption vis-à-vis the tourism sector – especially for hotels, restaurants and the local ceramics industry.
- Syria-US: Deadly attack on US forces will elevate conflict risks in central and north-eastern Syria. On 13 December, a suspected gunman affiliated with Islamic State (IS) killed two US Army soldiers and one civilian interpreter near Palmyra (Homs governorate), while also injuring three other soldiers. The US has attributed the attack to IS, a claim consistent with the Syrian authorities’ statements that the individual had been reassigned from his role as a base security guard with the Internal Security Forces, due to suspected affiliations with IS. However, the group has not claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing. US officials have stated that they intend to retaliate, while the Syrian Interior Ministry confirmed the arrest of five people suspected of having links to the attack on 14 December. We assess that the attack will likely increase pressure on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to intensify counter-terrorism operations in Al-Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, Homs and Raqqa governorates in the coming days, likely with US military support, which will drive exposure to armed conflict. Furthermore, the incident will likely drive internal scrutiny of Syria’s security forces, possibly compounding radicalisation among jihadist-aligned personnel at a risk of dismissal, driving long-term terrorism risks. (Source: Sibylline)
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