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Military And Security Developments
Dec 05.
- Libya: Clashes in western region underscore security instability throughout first half of 2026. On 4 December, armed clashes in Zawiya (Zawiya district) between the 103rd Infantry Battalion and the city’s ‘counter-security threat force’ temporarily shut down the critical coastal highway near Zawiya’s Al-Harsha area, killing at least four fighters from both sides. Notably, both parties are de facto law enforcement forces, nominally operating under the Government of National Unity (GNU), which is based in the capital Tripoli. The clashes underscore the persistent security instability in western Libya, as the GNU lacks full control over local militias, which often have conflicting agendas. This will sustain the risks of armed clashes in western Libya throughout the first half of 2026, including in Tripoli. In Zawiya district in particular, the risk of renewed clashes will remain elevated in the coming days; any wider clashes will disrupt businesses across the city, possibly including the operations at the Zawiya oil refinery.
- Yemen: Attacks on vessel underscore elevated piracy risk, threats to on-board crew members. Earlier on 5 December, a bulk carrier was attacked twice by suspected pirates in the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb; the ship was followed by several smaller vessels that opened fire, prompting a kinetic response from the armed guards on board. We assess that other vessels will possibly experience similar attacks in the coming weeks, as regional piracy rates have risen in 2025. This will increase the threat of surface-level and critical damage to ships and heighten the risk of physical harm to crew members. The successful boarding of vessels by pirates will possibly lead to asset seizures and kidnapping incidents, raising economic threats and endangering the physical and psychological wellbeing of onboard personnel. Furthermore, a rise in such incidents will possibly perpetuate rerouting away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, sustaining heightened operational disruption and supply chain costs for affected businesses.
Dec 04.
- Yemen: STC operation underscores persistent security risks for personnel, threat of conflict renewal. On 3 December, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC; a faction within Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council) announced that it had launched an operation in Hadhramaut governorate. The move comes in response to a rebellion by the Saudi Arabia-backed Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance (led by Deputy Governor Amr bin Habrish). During the operation, STC-aligned forces took control of Seiyun (Hadhramaut governorate), with fighting reported at the city’s Seiyun Airport (GXF) and the presidential palace. This underscores the persistent security risks from crossfire and misidentification to nearby NGO personnel. The actions come after Habrish-aligned tribal fighters entered the government-owned PetroMasila oil company’s oilfield (Hadhramaut governorate) last week, demanding a greater share of revenue and forcing the firm to halt operations. The confrontation highlights a significant escalation between Saudi Arabia and UAE-backed forces in Yemen, raising the prospect of a resumption in conflict in the country’s civil war. The operation is likely to continue over the coming days and weeks, increasing operational risks to hydrocarbon businesses operating in Yemen, while posing knock-on supply chain and energy security risks to dependent parties.
- Iraq: Efforts to mitigate US sanctions are unlikely to succeed given entrenched Iranian influence. Earlier on 4 December, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani confirmed that a statement in Iraq’s official gazette on 3 December, designating Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis as terrorist organisations, was issued by mistake. If Baghdad had designated LH and Houthis as terror organisations, this would likely have increased the risk of domestic unrest and armed clashes nationwide. The reason for the erroneous statement is unclear, but such an error is essentially unprecedented. It possibly reflects a disagreement or misunderstanding within government amid discussions on how to avoid US sanctions against key Iraqi institutions linked to Iranian proxies, including the Central Bank and the state’s oil marketing company, in 2026. As such, policy moves to distance the state from such Iran-backed groups are possible in the coming weeks, raising unrest risks. Such moves are unlikely to fully mitigate risks of US sanctions in 2026 due to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), which yield significant influence in Iraq’s security apparatus and public institutions. Additionally, a government led by the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework (CF) coalition, which won the largest number of seats in the recent parliamentary elections, will sustain these risks.
Dec 03.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
IRAN
- Iran is hosting a five-day joint counter-terrorism exercise with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), though the pressure facing the capacity of its security forces will almost certainly remain acute.
- Iran has increased the rate of its vessel seizures in the Strait of Hormuz amid a broader crackdown on fuel smuggling, increasing exposure risks for regionally engaged energy and shipping firms.
- The Iranian authorities will likely intensify their enforcement of the Hijab and Chastity Law in the coming weeks, increasing the risk of anti-government protests and security force crack downs.
ISRAEL
- An amendment to the weekly protest schedule is likely to reduce attendance levels, though travel disruption in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area will likely continue.
- A new draft ultra-Orthodox military conscription law will reduce the risk of legislative stasis in the short term; however, it will drive domestic unrest and policy risks over the long term.
- A proposal to adopt US President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan passed in the Knesset, though without the participation of the ruling coalition; Israel’s full adoption of the plan remains unlikely.
PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES
- GAZA STRIP: The opening of the Rafah border crossing is unlikely to alleviate humanitarian conditions significantly; it is also likely to face delays.
- WEST BANK: A shooting incident in Jenin (Jenin governorate) has increased the risk of unrest in Israel, as well as broader scrutiny of Israeli activities in the West Bank.
- WEST BANK: Israeli settlers continue to attack Palestinian communities and pro-Palestine activists, underscoring the significant risks of violence and targeted harassment.
Dec 02.
- Israel-Palestinian Territories: Increasing attacks will elevate travel disruption, military operations. Earlier on 2 December, a Palestinian lightly injured two Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel in a stabbing attack during a security check near the Israeli settlement Ateret (Ramallah and al-Bireh governorate). The incident comes following a car ramming attack against soldiers at the Beit Einun Junction (Hebron governorate) on Road 60 on 1 December, lightly injuring one service person. The incidents highlight an increase in attacks on Israeli security forces and civilians across the West Bank. This uptick follows a large IDF operation in the northern West Bank beginning on 25 November and ahead of the Hanukkah holiday period (from 14 to 22 December). We assess that attacks are likely to increase in frequency in the coming weeks ahead of Hanukkah, elevating security risks near Israeli settlements, the security forces’ positions and key roads (particularly against vehicles with Israeli license plates). The IDF is highly likely to impose temporary road closures near attack locations, including military cordons and search operations at nearby Palestinian population centres following attacks. This will elevate travel disruption and the risk of localised low-intensity armed clashes.
- Yemen: Arrest of alleged spy network will increase physical security risks to NGO staff. On 1 December, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen referred 12 people to court on charges of spying for the US and Israel. The Houthis claimed that the alleged spy network has carried out espionage and sabotage activities for decades. This comes nearly a month after a Houthi court sentenced 17 people to death on the same charge. It also comes two weeks following a Houthi raid on the International Committee of the Red Cross’ office in the capital Sanaa, temporarily arresting its staff. These recent developments indicate an increasing rate of crackdowns and security campaigns by the Houthis amid a pause in hostilities with Israel. These campaigns are likely to continue for the next two months and to include further raids on NGO offices and international humanitarian organisations in Sanaa and other Houthi-controlled territories. Physical security threats to expats, NGO staff and Yemeni staff holding European passports will increase during this period, possibly driving a partial scale-down of humanitarian operations and increasing pressure on aid providers.
Dec 01.
- Iraq: Clashes in Kurdistan region will increase domestic unrest risks. On 29 November, the Kurdish security forces killed at least two protesters and injured several others while using live ammunition to disperse demonstrators outside the Lanaz refinery (Erbil governorate). Security forces intervened after protesters (largely residents of the nearby Lajan village) demanding employment in the refinery, attempted to cut off the Erbil-Gwer road. Protests outside the refinery have subsided; however, we assess that Lajan residents and other members of the Harki tribe in Erbil governorate are likely to organise further protests outside the refinery this week, particularly after Friday prayers. This will drive risks of renewed armed clashes with the security forces outside the facility and elevate the risk of site invasions and attacks targeting the energy facility. Further attempts to disrupt the Erbil-Gwer road are also likely, triggering travel delays along the highway.
- Turkey-Iraq: PKK commander’s statement presents peace talk impasse, possible conflict escalation. On 29 November, a senior Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) commander stated that the group will not proceed further with the peace process unless the Turkish government ‘constitutionally recognises Kurds’ and releases its founder Abdullah Öcalan. The PKK formally dissolved in May and began disarming in July. While it remains possible that the authorities will release Öcalan within the next 12 months, domestic political dynamics make this unlikely. Such a move would almost certainly require additional concessions from the PKK, including comprehensive disarmament. As such, the commander’s statement elevates the likelihood of a breakdown in negotiations with at least some PKK factions, increasing the risk of splinter groups emerging in the coming months. This will raise the risk of conflict resumption, Turkish military operations along the Iraq-Turkey border and in the Qandil Mountains (Iraq), outbreaks of intercommunal violence and attack risks in south-eastern Turkey, elevating security risks for personnel in these areas. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Home land Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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