NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

12 Nov.

Over the past 24 hours, IDF troops engaged in fighting with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants in Al-Shati refugee camp while continuing to advance toward Al-Shifa Hospital. Israel announced another humanitarian corridor from 0900hrs (local time) to 1600hrs through Salah al-Din road, calling for Gazans in Al-Shifa Hospital to also evacuate via the corridor. Additionally, the IDF announced another ‘tactical cessation of military activities’ in Jabalia to allow supplies and evacuation to southern Gaza between 1000hrs and 1400hrs. However, while southern Gaza is relatively more secure, overnight reports claim the IDF used heavy artillery fire east of Rafah in southern Gaza, highlighting the sustained high risks in the area nonetheless.
The rate of rockets launched from Gaza towards Israel remained on trend, with a barrage towards Beersheba reported on 11 November. Additionally, two drones crossing from Gaza into Israel on 11 November were intercepted. The majority of rockets launched by Hamas and PIJ militants continue targeting IDF positions in northern Gaza and the Gaza envelope, resulting in a lower rate of launches towards Israeli population centres. However, security risks across Israel, including central Israel, remain high due to rocket launches.
Clashes between Palestinians and the IDF have continued in the West Bank at a lower rate than in the previous 24 hours, likely due to reduced IDF operations in the area. Overnight, the IDF arrested 15 wanted individuals, six of whom are alleged Hamas members in the West Bank. However, demonstrations, violent clashes and armed clashes between the IDF and Palestinian population and/or militants are likely to continue at their previously observed elevated intensity in the coming week. Armed clashes remain particularly likely in northern West Bank hotspots such as Tulkarm, Jenin, Nablus and Qalqilya.
On 12 November, Lebanese Hizballah (LH) launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM), hitting a civilian vehicle near Dovev in Upper Galilee, severely injuring six civilians and fatally wounding another. Six of the civilians are employees of the electricity company working in the area to repair power lines that were hit by previous launches. The IDF is likely to respond strongly, targeting several multiple LH positions and infrastructure. The launch reflects a continued gradual uptick in clashes and tit-for-tat hostilities between LH and/or LH-affiliated militants in the past 72 hours.
On 11 November, two rockets launched from Syria fell in open areas in the Golan Heights (Israel). The rockets triggered sirens in southern Golan Heights in Avnei Eitan, Nov and Eliad. In response, the IDF struck back at the sources of the launches. Later, on 12 November, in a further response, Israel Air Forces (IAF) performed airstrikes in Daraa governorate (south-west Syria). The IDF confirmed it struck ‘terror infrastructure’ in Syria but did not specify which group it belonged to; no casualties were reported. The rockets represent a gradual, limited escalation from Syria, slightly elevating rocket attack risks in Israel’s north-east areas. However, this development is currently unlikely to signal or lead to a major escalation, and stays within our previous assessment.

FORECAST

Militant fire on IDF securing unofficial evacuation road highlights sabotage risks for official corridors. As the IDF continue fighting and advancing into Gaza City and closer to Al-Shifa Hospital, the risks of Hamas or PIJ militants using civilians as shields or distractions against the IDF increases. Consequently, there will be elevated risks to bystanders around humanitarian corridors, and a heightened risk of premature closure or cancellation of future corridors. The IDF is likely preparing for battles in and around Al-Shifa Hospital and increasing its efforts to evacuate civilians from the area to reduce non-involved casualties. However, the IDF’s temporary tactical cessation of operations in fighting areas to allow civilian evacuations is unlikely to be sustainable over the long term and remains fragile.

Levels of domestic unrest in the West Bank are likely to gradually increase over the coming week, elevating risks of sole perpetrator attacks. LH leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 11 November will likely help sustain the mobilisation of the Palestinian population in the West Bank. Given likely continued IDF raids in the West Bank and Palestinian militants’ activities, growing tensions are likely to elevate attack risks in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Attacks are likely to target Israeli security forces, although risks of targeting Israeli settlers in the West Bank remain high as well. The risk of attacks (especially those carried out by sole perpetrators) and associated bystander risks in crowded areas, transport hubs and religious worship locations, particularly in Jerusalem, will remain elevated.

Clashes and tit-for-tat hostilities between the IDF and LH and/or LH-aligned militants are likely to continue gradually increasing, elevating bystander risks near the Israel-Lebanon border and southern Lebanon. These risks are emphasised by the ATGM attack on an Israeli civilian vehicle on 12 November and Nasrallah’s speech on 11 November. The speech by Nasrallah highlights the likelihood of increased rocket attacks over northern Israel towards locations further away from the Israel-Lebanon border. Security and bystander risks due to rocket launches will remain elevated across all of Israel in the coming days, including central and southern Israel. However, currently, a major escalation from LH remains unlikely.

11 Nov.

Over the past 24 hours, IDF troops continued to advance into Gaza City from the north and and south, engaging in heavy fighting close to Al-Shifa hospital. Israeli forces are said to be between 200 and 500 meters west of Al-shifa hospital, which they claim serves as a headquarter for Hamas. The IDF announced another humanitarian corridor for civilians to evacute to southern Gaza through the Salah al-Din road between 0900hrs and 1600hrs (local time), today, 11 November. Additionally, the IDF, for the first time, stopped offensive operations and strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp between 1000hrs and 1400hrs to allow civilians in the area to evacuate.
The rate of rockets launched from Gaza towards Israel remained on trend, with two barrages to central Israel. The majority of rockets launched by Hamas and PIJ militants have targeted IDF positions in northern Gaza and the Gaza envelope; there have been fewer rocket launches towards Israeli civilian targets as a result. However, the threat of rocket attacks remains elevated across Israel, highlighted by rocket shrapnel injuring two civilians in their car in Tel Aviv on 10 November.
Clashes between Palestinians and the IDF have continued in the West Bank, as heightened ethno-religious tensions and domestic unrest persists. Overnight, the IDF arrested 19 wanted individuals, nine of whom are alleged Hamas members in the West Bank. In Masafer Yatta and At-Tuwani (Hebron governorate), Israeli settlers reportedly caused damage to waterlines feeding Palestinian homes in the area. Repeated IDF arrests and settler violence in the West Bank will continue to drive tensions within the Palestinian population; it will also sustain the risk of attacks against Israeli targets in the area and Jerusalem.
Earlier on 11 November, the IDF struck a vehicle located 18 miles (30km) north of the Israel-Lebanon border – the deepest strike into Lebanese territory since the start of the conflict. The strike comes amid a moderate uptick in clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and/or pro-Palestinian militant groups. In the past 24 hours, the IDF has increased strikes in Southern Lebanon, using fighter jets, attack helicopters, UAVs and artillery to target Hizballah positions and infrastructure. These attacks were in retaliation to attempted UAV incursions from Lebanon into Israel, several instances of militants targeting IDF positions and rocket launches towards northern Israel.

24-HOUR FORECAST

Over the coming days, the IDF will likely continue to facilitate brief humanitarian corridors allowing citizens to evacuate to southern Gaza. This indicates that the IDF likely intends to operate with greater force in some of these locations in the coming week. Over the coming 24 hours, the IDF will likely advance closer towards Al-Shifa Hospital and other hospitals in Gaza City, which it claims host Hamas military infrastructure and command centres. This will increase security and bystander risks in these areas. Hamas militants will possibly attack IDF positions to sabotage the prospect of further corridors. They will also likely hide among civilians in order to complicate IDF operations. There is also a realistic possibility that Hamas militants will attack civilians and blame the IDF in the hope of triggering international condemnation.

Heightened levels of domestic unrest in the West Bank will almost certainly persist over the coming 24 hours. Further clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants are highly likely, particularly in Jenin, Nablus, Hebron and Tulkarem, as well as in the broader Jerusalem area. Violent clashes, as well as small arms and IED attacks, will sustain elevated bystander and collateral risks, particularly at checkpoints and border crossings. While IDF and/or Israeli police personnel will likely be the primary targets of violence, there is a realistic possibility of attacks targeting civilians, particularly in crowded public spaces, public transport hubs and religious sites, especially in Jerusalem.

Clashes between the IDF and LH and/or LH-aligned militants based in Lebanon will likely continue at an elevated rate over the coming 24 hours. Following LH leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 11 November, rocket launches, shelling and drone attacks targeting IDF locations on the Israel-Lebanon border will likely moderately increase, elevating physical security risks to proximate civilian population centres. In turn, the IDF will intensify its own operations and an uptick in clashes in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, fuelling the risk of a gradual escalation of the conflict. However, we continue to assess that a major escalation remains unlikely.

10 Nov.

Over the past 24 hours, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has progressed to the ‘security quarter’ in central Gaza City; it is also reportedly encircling hospitals. The IDF has maintained a humanitarian corridor for civilians to evacuate to southern Gaza, though US claims about daily four-hour-long ceasefires are yet to be confirmed.
Cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah and/or other pro-Palestine militants have continued at previously observed levels, with militants launching anti-tank missiles at IDF positions, and the IDF responding with targeted artillery and airstrikes.
A drone launched from Syria successfully hit Eilat (Israel); no casualties were reported. The launch was likely in response to an IDF strike against Syria the previous day and signals elevated risks of gradual escalation vis-à-vis Syria. However, major escalation remains unlikely.
Over the past 24 hours, IDF ground troops raided the ‘security quarter’ of Hamas in central Gaza City, close to the al-Shifa Hospital. The security quarter is considered the core of Hamas’ intelligence and operational activity. IDF troops also began surrounding various hospitals in the city. Video footage appears to show a group of civilians waving white flags in an attempt to evacuate from the al-Rantisi hospital; they stop as soon as shots are heard. It is unclear whether the shooting was carried out by Hamas or the IDF. The IDF has continued to facilitate a humanitarian corridor along Salah al-Din road into southern Gaza; however, we cannot confirm claims by the US regarding a daily four-hour pause in the fighting to facilitate humanitarian corridors.
In the last 24 hours, rocket fire from Gaza into central and southern Israel has taken place at a comparatively lower rate; a single barrage prompted sirens in Tel Aviv earlier on 10 November. Hamas and PIJ have largely focused on targets within Gaza City and the Gaza envelope in an attempt to counter Israel’s ground offensive. On 10 November, multiple sirens were heard at 1130hrs (local time) across Tel Aviv and Ashdod; two civilians were reportedly injured by rocket shrapnel in Tel Aviv.
Over the past 24 hours, cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah and/or affiliated militants have continued at previously observed levels. On 9 November, militants launched anti-tank missiles towards IDF positions in Mitzpe Adi near Margaliot (Northern district), as well as at an IDF tank operating in Metula (Northern) and an IDF mechanised infantry unit stationed near Shomera (Northern). Also on 9 November, rockets were launched towards locations close to the Israel-Lebanon border, including Kibbutz Adamit and Shtula (both Northern); no injuries or casualties have been reported. These attacks were almost certainly carried out in response to ongoing IDF airstrikes and artillery shelling in southern Lebanon. Over the past 24 hours, the IDF has shelled locations associated with Hizballah in southern Lebanon; airstrikes also targeted Hizballah infrastructure in the same region. In addition, artillery fire was reported in Ayta ash Shab, Beit Lif, Ramyeh and Rmaich (all Nabatieh governorate).
In the West Bank, the frequency of clashes between the IDF and Palestinians has remained on-trend over the past 24 hours; the IDF arrested 41 wanted individuals, 14 of whom are allegedly Hamas members. Intense armed clashes between IDF and Palestinian militants continued on trend in Jenin. They involved IEDs being used against IDF personnel, as well as IDF drone strikes. During the clashes, the Lion’s Den (a Palestinian militant group), announced that it had engaged in clashes with IDF troops. Clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants in the West Bank are likely to gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.
On 9 November, a drone launched from Syria successfully struck the southern city of Eilat (Israel). The drone reportedly hit an empty school yard; no casualties were reported. It is unknown which group launched the drone. However, the IDF reportedly responded by striking the responsible group in Syria. The IDF deems the Syrian government to be responsible for every and any attack launched from its territory. On 9 November, the IDF intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Eilat using the Arrow air defence system before the projectile entered Israeli airspace. The attack mirrors the trend of sporadic Houthi missile launches targeting Israel in recent weeks; it is unlikely to reflect an escalation. We assess that the drone strike from Syria is an outlier event; it is likely a response to an IDF strike against Syria earlier this week. It underscores the gradually increasing risk of tit-for-tat strikes between militants in Syria and the IDF.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

On 9 November, the Rafah border crossing reopened to foreign nationals and a limited number of critically injured Palestinians, following a one-day closure. Approximately 700 foreign nationals have reportedly crossed into Egypt over the past 24 hours. The temporary suspension was almost certainly triggered by disagreements between the Israeli and Egyptian authorities regarding the passage of injured Palestinians into Egypt. There is a realistic possibility that similar disputes will arise over the coming days, resulting in temporary border crossing closures. Such closures will likely be announced with little (or no) notice, elevating the likelihood of disruption to evacuation measures. Also, approximately 100 trucks carrying humanitarian aid have crossed through the Rafah border crossing over the past 24 hours; further deliveries are likely in the coming 24 hours.
On 9 November, at least six individuals were detained in Nazareth (Northern) by the Israeli authorities ahead of a demonstration in al-Ain opposing the IDF’s operations in Gaza. Sami Abu Shehadeh (the leader of the National Democratic Assembly) and Muhammad Baraka (of the Higher Follow-up Committee) were among those detained, interrogated and later released. The al-Ain area was sealed off to prevent the demonstration from going ahead. The arrests will likely increase ethno-religious tensions in Israel, particularly in cities with large Arab populations, moderately elevating the likelihood of further protests and demonstrations.
Earlier on 10 November, the head of the Israeli security services (Mossad) and the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) met with Qatari mediators in Doha (Qatar) for negotiations on releasing hostages from Gaza. In light of the US’ announcement about possible four-hour-long humanitarian pauses to facilitate the release of hostages, there is a realistic possibility that a limited number of hostages will be released in the coming days. Nevertheless, the release of all 239 hostages held in Gaza remains highly unlikely in this timeframe. The negotiations also reportedly touched on authorising limited fuel deliveries into Gaza. While the Israeli authorities are unlikely to authorise the full resumption of fuel deliveries into Gaza, there is a realistic possibility that ongoing negotiations will allow humanitarian organisations to deliver limited quantities of fuel, moderately improving energy security for hospitals and medical centres, primarily in southern Gaza

09 Nov. 23

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued its ground operation in Gaza; it aims to encircle Gaza City completely. Intense fighting has taken place in Western Jabalia in the past 24 hours. The rate of rocket launches from Gaza towards Israel continues to be lower than that observed in previous weeks, likely due to the IDF ground operation.
Cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued at a similar rate compared to the previous five days. On 8 November, the IDF shelled several villages in Lebanon’s South and Nabatieh governorates; it also carried out airstrikes against Lebanese Hizballah infrastructure in response to cross-border incursions and strikes against IDF locations and equipment.
On 9 November, the IDF announced that the Salah al-Din evacuation corridor connecting Gaza City to southern Gaza will be open from 1000hrs to 1600hrs (local time). This is the fifth consecutive day that the route has been open. However, the Rafah border crossing remains closed at the time of writing. Negotiations are ongoing amid reports that Hamas is refusing to allow foreign citizens passage without guarantees of care for injured Palestinians.
Over the past 24 hours, Israeli troops have continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Gaza as they further encircle Gaza City. On 9 November, the IDF announced that its Nahal division took over a Hamas stronghold in western Jabalia after ten hours of intense fighting. In Gaza City, Hamas and PIJ militants have conducted numerous hit-and-run attacks in Atara, using mortars and anti-tank missiles; Hamas militants also targeted IDF armoured units in Sheikh Radwan. Clearing operations continue in Beit Hanoun; the IDF released footage of infantry units destroying tunnels used by Hamas militants in this area. The rate of rocket launches from Gaza targeting Israeli population centres has continued to decrease. This is likely due to Hamas and PIJ militants prioritising IDF positions and personnel within Gaza in an attempt to slow the ground offensive’s advance. However, the risk of rocket attacks targeting areas across Israel, including Central district, remain elevated.
Cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued at a similar rate compared to the previous five days. On 8 November, Lebanese Hizballah fired an anti-tank missile at IDF positions in Dovev (Northern district), injuring two soldiers. The IDF maintains an elevated security posture along the Israel-Lebanon border and to strike Lebanese Hizballah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. On 8 November, the IDF shelled several villages in Lebanon’s South and Nabatieh governorates; it also carried out a combination of airstrikes against Lebanese Hizballah infrastructure in Yater (Nabatieh). These strikes were carried out in response to cross-border incursions and attacks against IDF artillery sites and sensory equipment on 7 November.
In the West Bank, the frequency of clashes between the IDF and Palestinians remained on-trend over the past 24 hours; fighting gradually intensified in Bethlehem, Jenin and Qalqilya. On 8 November, an IDF raid at a building on al-Saf street in Bethlehem (Bethlehem governorate) escalated into violent clashes in which numerous Palestinians were injured. At the time of writing, the exact number of injuries cannot be confirmed. Unverified news reports from sources affiliated with Iranian media outlets indicate that over 60 individuals were injured (and that some were wounded by live ammunition). However, there is a realistic possibility that these reports have inflated the number of injuries in an attempt to foster broader mobilisation in Bethlehem and the wider West Bank. Overnight, armed clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants in the Jenin refugee camp (Jenin governorate) continued on-trend; IEDs were used against IDF personnel, while an IDF drone strike killed at least five militants. Clashes involving the use of small arms have also been reported in Bethlehem, Hebron, Nablus, Ramallah and Tubas, while militants from the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade claimed to have used IEDs against IDF soldiers in Qalqilya. Over the past 24 hours, the IDF detained at least 27 wanted individuals in the West Bank, ten of whom are reportedly affiliated with Hamas.
In the northern West Bank, unidentified gunmen shot and moderately injured two Israelis travelling in their vehicle near Itamar settlement. Elevated ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank, driven by continued arrest campaigns and clashes with the IDF, will sustain the likelihood of attacks targeting Israeli nationals and the Israeli security forces. Further such shootings are likely to elevate ethno-religious tensions, particularly between Israeli settlers and Palestinian communities in the West Bank. These will exacerbate security and bystander risks and raise the likelihood of further escalation and violent unrest in the West Bank.
On 9 November, US Secretary of Defense Llyod Martin announced that the US had conducted airstrikes against an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) facility in Deir ez-Zur governorate (Syria). The strikes hit a weapons silo used by the IRGC and other Iranian-affiliated militants; they killed at least nine individuals linked to the IRGC. According to US officials, the strikes were carried out in response to the recent uptick in attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria; there have been at least 40 such attacks since the start of October.
Alleged Israeli airstrikes against military infrastructure in southern Syria killed three pro-Iranian militants. The strikes reportedly targeted a radar station and a Syrian army air defence base in as-Suwayda governorate. While the strikes are likely to elevate tensions between Israel and Syria, they are unlikely to result in a major escalation.
On 8 November, an MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone operated by the US was shot down by Iran-backed Houthi rebels off the coast of Yemen. While the incident is unlikely to trigger a significant escalation, it reflects elevated regional tensions due to conflict spillover risks.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

At the time of writing, the Rafah border crossing is closed, reportedly due to unspecified security circumstances. Unverified reports indicate that Hamas has refused to authorise the egress of foreign citizens without further guarantees of injured Palestinians being allowed through the crossing to receive medical care in Egypt. Negotiations between representatives from Egypt, Israel and the US to re-open the border are ongoing.
On 9 November, the IDF announced that the Salah al-Din evacuation corridor connecting Gaza City to southern Gaza will be open from 1000hrs to 1600hrs (local time). This is the fifth consecutive day that the route has been open. Over the past 24 hours, an estimated 50,000 people have evacuated northern Gaza via this route. Further evacuations will likely take place in the coming days, increasing demand for humanitarian aid in southern Gaza.
Negotiations for hostage releases continue; there is growing international pressure on Israel to accept a humanitarian pause to facilitate the release of hostages and the delivery of humanitarian aid. Qatar continues to mediate in negotiations. There are reports that Hamas is seeking a 72-hour ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of up to 20 hostages. Israeli officials continue to state that no ceasefire or humanitarian pause will be adopted until all hostages held by militant groups in Gaza are released. As international pressure to adopt humanitarian pauses in the ground offensive continues to grow, there is a realistic possibility that the IDF will adopt limited pauses. Nevertheless, such pauses will likely be extremely short and highly localised to mitigate concerns that Hamas and PIJ militants will exploit operational delays to re-group and launch attacks against IDF positions and personnel.
On 8 November, the police in São Paulo (Brazil) arrested two Hizballah members who reportedly planned to attack Jewish and Israeli targets in the country. In co-ordination with the Israeli security services, the police also carried out raids in the capital Brasília and Minas Gerais state. These arrests highlight elevated threats to Jewish and Israeli individuals worldwide, particularly from militant groups with international recruitment networks, such as Hizballah. Sites associated with Israel will continue to face elevated risks of targeted violence, as well as defacement, arson and vandalism, particularly areas with higher-density Jewish populations. As the Israel-Hamas war continues, inflammatory rhetoric and calls for mobilisation will also increase the likelihood of sole-perpetrator attacks targeting similar locations.

08 Nov.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground offensive in Gaza has continued over the past 24 hours; ground units are further encircling Gaza City. IDF troops are also expanding their clearing operations south of central Gaza City.
Cross-border hostilities between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued on-trend, mirroring the moderate uptick we have observed in the past week; this uptick is due to the additional involvement of Palestinian militants. However, we continue to assess that a major escalation remains unlikely.
Clashes in the West Bank between the IDF and Palestinian militants have continued on-trend. However, there was an uptick in the intensity of clashes in Tulkarm; this underscores the risk of clashes intensifying in other West Bank hotspots such as Bethlehem, Hebron, Nablus and Ramallah.
Over the past 24 hours, Israeli troops have been conducting clearing operations in northern Gaza; they have also further encircled Gaza City. On 7 October, the IDF released footage of Israeli armoured vehicles operating along the coastal road south of Gaza City’s centre, indicating ongoing measures to encircle the city further. IDF ground units continue to conduct clearing operations in Beit Hanoun and have reportedly entered the northern outskirts of the al-Shati Camp in western Jabalia. On 8 November, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced that since 7 October, the IDF has destroyed approximately 14,000 targets associated with Hamas and/or PIJ militants; it has also reportedly destroyed at least 100 tunnel shafts. Rocket launches by Gaza-based militants have primarily targeted IDF personnel and locations in northern Gaza and the wider Gaza envelope behind the line of advance. Two multi-rocket barrages were fired at Tel Aviv on 7 November, triggering alerts in Herzliya, Petah Tikva, Rishon LeZion and Tel Aviv, though no casualties were reported.
Cross-border hostilities between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued at a similar rate compared to the previous five days. Rocket launches from Lebanon have primarily targeted IDF locations and assets in northern Israel; a missile struck an IDF artillery site in Majdal Shams (Northern district) on 7 November. Also on 7 November, the IDF intercepted a suspicious aerial target attempting to enter Israeli airspace from Ayta Ash Shab (Nabatiyeh governorate, Lebanon). The IDF also exchanged fire with unidentified militants attempting to launch an anti-tank missile from Lebanon against the vicinity of Shtula (Northern).
In the West Bank, the frequency of clashes between the IDF and Palestinians has remained on-trend over the past 24 hours, though fewer clashes were reported in and around the Jerusalem area. The IDF has engaged in numerous clashes with militants from the al-Qassem Brigades, al-Quds Brigades and al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade in and around Tulkarm and Jenin. On 7 November, fighters from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and al-Quds Brigade engaged IDF personnel in an hours-long standoff at the Tulkarm camp in what was likely a co-ordinated attack. Militants also detonated an IED during an attack against IDF personnel in Jenin, though no casualties were reported. At least nine small arms clashes have been recorded in the West Bank over the past 24 hours. The Israeli security forces have also arrested 37 individuals, ten of whom are allegedly linked to Hamas.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Over the past 24 hours, over 650 foreign nationals have passed through the Rafah border crossing, which remains partially open for humanitarian aid deliveries. Earlier on 8 November, approximately 600 foreign nationals are likely to leave Gaza, including nationals from Canada, the Philippines and Ukraine. Since the border crossing opened to foreign passport holders and critically ill Palestinians on 1 November, approximately 1,900 individuals have crossed into Egypt. However, there is a realistic possibility that the crossing will shut in the coming days with very little notice, sustaining risks of disruption to evacuation measures for foreign nationals and their dependents.
In northern Gaza, ongoing clashes between the IDF and Hamas and/or PIJ militants continue to exacerbate the deterioration of humanitarian conditions. Restricted access to humanitarian aid has significantly increased food and water insecurity for civilians in Gaza City and Jabalia. Over the past 24 hours, approximately 15,000 civilians are estimated to have been evacuated from northern Gaza via the Salah al-Din road. Further evacuations will likely increase pressure on humanitarian supplies in southern Gaza, moderately increasing risks of domestic unrest surrounding food and aid distribution sites.
On 7 November, the foreign ministers of countries comprising the G7 issued a joint statement calling for ‘humanitarian pauses’ in the IDF’s ground offensive following meetings in Tokyo (Japan). Despite increasing international pressure on Israel to pause operations in Gaza temporarily, Israeli government officials have repeatedly stated that IDF operations will continue uninterrupted until all hostages held by militant groups in Gaza are released. Nevertheless, there is a realistic possibility that the IDF will concede to so-called ‘tactical pauses’ to facilitate hostage releases and the delivery of medical aid to approved institutions in northern Gaza. It is likely that these pauses will be extremely short (an hour or two); they will almost certainly only apply to specific localities.
On 10-11 November, Saudi Arabia will host emergency meetings of the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Co-operation to discuss the Israel-Hamas war. The meetings are highly likely to result in a joint condemnation of the IDF’s actions in Gaza and calls for a unilateral ceasefire, elevating diplomatic tensions. These tensions will increase the likelihood of economic measures being imposed by regional countries against Israel. However, broad and co-ordinated measures that isolate Israel extensively remain unlikely. Rather, measures are likely to include a reduction in trade relations with Israel; this would likely impact agriculture and food products. There is a realistic possibility that the Abraham Accords will be discussed in the meetings due to the elevated tensions. However, their complete revocation is unlikely.

07 Nov.

Ground units of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are continuing to encircle Gaza City; they are also advancing in north-western coastal areas. Intense clashes will almost certainly continue in the coming 24 hours, sustaining extreme physical security and bystander risks, particularly in northern Gaza as civilian evacuations continue towards southern Gaza.
The rate of clashes between the IDF and militant groups based in Lebanon has moderately increased; this trend will likely continue as various militant groups, including Hamas and Lebanese Hizballah, increase their targeting of population centres in northern Israel.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced that there has been an uptick in drone and rocket attacks targeting US bases and assets in Iraq and Syria, underscoring the elevated risks near US military assets; the US will likely continue to bolster its military presence in the region to deter further attacks in the coming days.
The IDF’s ground operation in Gaza continues. Ground units are continuing to progress along the coast; they aim to complete the encirclement of northern Gaza. Additionally, IDF units have gradually advanced from the coast towards Gaza City. Over the past 24 hours, IDF forces have continued to advance towards the Tal al Hawa neighbourhood in southern Gaza City. They have also advanced towards the Sheik Hamand Hospital on Gaza’s north-western coast. In addition, clashes have been reported in Beit Hanoun. On 6 November, the IDF claimed to have struck approximately 450 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targets in Gaza over the preceding 24 hours; they also reportedly took control of several Hamas military outposts and seized numerous weapons caches. Due to intense clashes, as well as ongoing airstrikes and the widespread use of IEDs to booby-trap civilian buildings, people in northern Gaza will continue to face extreme physical security risks in the coming days.
Over the past 24 hours, rocket fire from militants based in Gaza has continued to trigger alerts in the Gaza envelope; however, no rockets were fired at civilian population centres in central and southern Israel. This is likely due to IDF advances in northern Gaza, where Hamas and PIJ have been forced to divert resources to support their efforts to repel the ground offensive. As such, rocket attacks have primarily targeted IDF positions in Gaza and locations in the Gaza envelope, including southern Ashkelon, Sderot and Reim. Previous territorial gains by the IDF have resulted in short-term reductions in the rate of rocket fire targeting cities in central and southern Israel; however, the elevated risks facing population centres across Israel will persist in the coming days, including in Beersheba, Rishon LeZion and Tel Aviv.
IDF operations in the West Bank have continued largely on-trend with a slight uptick compared to previous days. Since our last report, the Israeli security forces have conducted at least 20 arrests in the West Bank, largely on terrorism charges. Clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants across the West Bank remained consistent with trends observed in the past week; armed clashes in Hebron, Jenin, Jerusalem, Ramallah and Tulkarm resulted in numerous injuries and several deaths. Earlier on 7 November, an IDF drone injured two Palestinian militants in Tulkarm, signalling an uptick in armed clashes in this area. On 6 November, clashes between the IDF and Palestinians in Jenin also involved the use of IEDs (which have become a regular feature of fighting in the West Bank). Also on 6 November, the Fatah-aligned al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade’s Tulkarm Battalion threatened to attack IDF personnel in response to clashes on 5 November in which three militants were killed. These events underscore the persistent risks facing Israeli security personnel in the West Bank.
Over the past 24 hours, the rate of clashes between the IDF and militant groups based in Lebanon has moderately increased, elevating physical security risks along the Israel-Lebanon border. This moderate uptick has been driven by an increase in the targeting of population centres in northern Israel (rocket sirens sounded in Acre and Kiryat Bialik on 6 November). This trend will likely continue as other non-Hizballah militant groups increase their activity. This was highlighted on 6 November, when Hamas’ al-Qassem Brigades fired a barrage of 16 rockets towards Haifa and Nahariya. This increased activity is likely to sustain the moderate uptick in rocket launches observed in the past 72 hours, elevating safety risks (particularly for population centres in northern Israel).
On 7 November, the IDF closed numerous roads in the Galilee area (Northern district) due to an unspecified security incident; we assess that this incident is likely to have been an incursion attempt by militants based in Lebanon. At the time of writing, residents in Kfar Giladi, Kfar Yuval, Malkia, Manara, Margaliot, Metula, Misgav Am, Ramot Naftali and Yiftah have been ordered to stay close to shelters. Nearby roads also remain closed. Risks related to further border incursion attempts will sustain elevated security threats to individuals close to the Israel-Lebanon border (though such efforts will likely remain small in scale). Further, temporary movement disruption in northern Israel is also likely.
On 6 November, a spokesperson for the US defense department announced that US bases and assets in Syria and Iraq have been targeted by rocket and drone attacks on six occasions in the past two days. Since the Israel-Hamas war began, a total of 38 strikes have been conducted against US bases and assets in the region, resulting in 46 minor injuries to US military personnel. Most incidents involved drone and rocket strikes, and have been attributed to Iranian-affiliated proxies active in the region. They underscore the persistent physical security and bystander risks facing individuals close to US installations in the region. In the coming days, the US will likely continue to bolster its military presence in the region to deter further attacks against US forces and regional allies.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

On the evening of 6 November, the Rafah border crossing re-opened to foreign nationals exiting Gaza following a temporary closure. For approximately 48 hours, the border crossing was closed due to a dispute between Hamas and the IDF over the evacuation of critically ill Palestinians. Approximately 600 foreign passport holders are likely to leave Gaza in the coming 24 hours, including nationals from Canada, France, Germany, Moldova, the Philippines, Romania and Ukraine. Limited humanitarian aid deliveries have entered Gaza over the past 24 hours; approximately 70 trucks carrying drinking water and 48 trucks carrying aid entered the enclave in this period. Although the crossing is currently open, further disruption to cross-border movement impacting both foreign nationals and aid convoys is highly likely to occur with little (or no) notice.
On 7 November, the UAE announced plans to establish a 150-bed field hospital in Gaza. Equipment for the hospital has reportedly reached Egypt and will shortly be transported into Gaza via the Rafah border crossing in co-ordination with the IDF. While the location of the hospital has not yet been specified, increased access to medical aid will likely moderately help to address the significant health insecurity throughout Gaza. In light of accusations that militants are using hospitals in Gaza as military outposts, the Israeli authorities will likely continue to support the delivery of medical aid and the establishment of field hospitals in Gaza. However, there is a realistic possibility that concerns over militants using medical facilities and/or appropriating medical aid will trigger temporary restrictions on aid deliveries. Additionally, the IDF’s ongoing blockade of fuel supplies entering Gaza will continue to limit the availability of medical services throughout the enclave by restricting the use of generators and exacerbating energy insecurity.
On 6 November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that Israel will almost certainly assume responsibility for security in Gaza for an indefinite period following the ground offensive. While the Israeli government is likely to delegate local and municipal responsibilities to Palestinian officials in Gaza, the IDF will likely conduct security and policing operations throughout the enclave. This would likely mirror the governance and security situation in Gaza before 2005; it would also likely elevate ethno-religious tensions and increase the likelihood of attacks targeting Israeli security personnel in Gaza. Additionally, concerns over the cost of maintaining an elevated security posture in Gaza to facilitate its administration will sustain investor concerns related to the stability of Israel’s economy in the coming weeks.
On 6 November, US President Joe Biden reiterated his support for humanitarian pauses in the IDF ground offensive during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamon Netanyahu. Although Netanyahu has previously stated that IDF operations will continue uninterrupted until all hostages held by militant groups in Gaza are released, he has also expressed moderate support for ‘tactical pauses’. It is likely that these pauses would be extremely short, and that they would only apply to specific localities to facilitate hostage releases and the delivery of aid to approved locations. Longer pauses are unlikely in the coming days, and a ceasefire is highly unlikely.
On 6 November, South Africa recalled its ambassador to Israel after referring to the IDF’s operation in Gaza as a ‘genocide’. In the coming days, rising diplomatic tensions will likely result in additional ambassador recalls from Israel, primarily from countries with a history of supporting Palestine or which face significant domestic pressure to oppose the IDF’s operations in Gaza.
On 6 November, Egyptian officials reiterated their view that the removal of Hamas from power in the Gaza strip is an unrealistic aim. This underscores Egypt’s desire for a swift end to the conflict; this is driven by concerns that the IDF’s efforts to remove Hamas from Gaza will trigger the mass-displacement of Palestinians into Egypt, which would possibly destabilise the Sinai region.
On 6 November, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi announced in a parliamentary session that any attempt by Israel to displace Palestinians from the West Bank would constitute a ‘declaration of war’. While Israel is currently unlikely to attempt to remove Palestinians from the West Bank, rising ethno-religious tensions will continue to sustain elevated levels of domestic unrest and the risk of clashes between Palestinians and the Israeli security forces and/or Israeli civilians in the West Bank. Nevertheless, al-Safadi’s statement underscores the significantly elevated regional tensions between Israel and Jordan; both countries previously maintained relatively close diplomatic and economic ties.

*Israel: Destructive Iranian threat actor campaigns pose elevated, sustained operational risks to firms. On 6 November, security firm Palo Alto Unit 42 reported that an Iranian state-sponsored threat actor (‘Agonizing Serpens’) targeted Israeli organisations in a destructive cyber campaign between January and October 2023. The campaign focused on entities within the higher education and technology sectors; it aimed to steal Personally Identifiable Information (PII) and intellectual property. The group exploited vulnerable public-facing web servers to obtain access to targeted networks, conducted reconnaissance to map the networks and obtain administrative credentials. Agonizing Serpens then deployed various wiper malware on the devices to obfuscate their activity and render them unusable, resulting in significant operational downtime for organisations. The threat actor is known for its use of destructive wiper malware and fake ransomware attacks against Israeli targets, underscoring the prolonged disruption and espionage risks posed to firms in the region.

06 Nov.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground units have continued to consolidate gains along the coast south of Gaza City, advancing to encircle northern Gaza; intense clashes between the IDF and Hamas and/or Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants continue in Jabalia and Gaza City.
Tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border sustained a small uptick following Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 3 November; clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and/or allied groups based in Lebanon have increased in frequency. The IDF continues to conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
The IDF’s ground operation is ongoing; ground units have started progressing from northern Gaza along the coast towards the south. This is part of IDF efforts to completely encircle northern Gaza. The IDF claims to have opened the Salah a-Din road as a humanitarian route to southern Gaza for civilian evacuations from 1000 hrs to 14000 hrs (local time) on 6 November. This follows a similar temporary opening on 5 November. However, there is a realistic possibility that Hamas militants hiding among civilians will use this route to launch attacks on IDF positions, or will attempt to prevent civilians from leaving northern Gaza. As such, individuals in northern Gaza and on the Salah a-Din road will continue to face extreme physical security risks due to realistic possibility of an IDF/Hamas attack.
IDF operations in the West Bank have continued largely on-trend with a slight uptick compared to previous days. Since our last report, 38 individuals have been arrested on terrorism charges, five of whom are suspected Hamas members. Clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants across the West Bank remained consistent with trends observed in the past week, with armed clashes in Jenin involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs) becoming a regular occurrence. Additionally, overnight, the IDF closed down three printing houses in Hebron and Qalqas (Hebron Governorate), for allegedly printing inflammatory materials for Hamas. Also on 6 November, two Israeli police officers were stabbed by a sole perpetrator in Bab al-Sahira (Jerusalem), underscoring persistent risks of low-capacity attacks targeting Israeli security personnel in the West Bank.
Confrontations between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and/or Lebanon-based Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants along the Israel-Lebanon border have increased. Tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border continued to rise following Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 3 November. Lebanese civilian casualties and injuries were reported in two separate incidents along the Lebanon border, one on the outskirts of Tayr Harfa (South governorate) and the other on the road between Ainata and Aitaroun (both Nabathieh Governorate). These developments increase the likelihood of retaliatory attacks by LH, with an increased risk of rocket launches and clashes in the coming 24 hours; civilian locations in northern Israel will likely be targeted, elevating bystander risks.
On 5 November, the Islamic Group in Lebanon announced that its military wing, the Fajr Forces, would join hostilities on the Israel-Lebanon border in support of Gaza. The group claimed responsibility for a rocket launched towards Israel on 18 October. This announcement announcement is in line with Sibylline’s previous assessment of gradual, minor escalations in clashes and attacks on northern Israel following Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 3 November. It is unlikely to reflect a major escalation, which would run counter to Hizballah’s current objectives. However, it will increase the overall risk of miscalculation that could lead to further escalation and security risks.
On 5 November, the US Department of Defense (DoD) announced that a nuclear-powered Ohio-class submarine has arrived in the Mediterranean. The announcement follows the arrival of the Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group to the Mediterranean also on 5 November. These vessels join the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group, highlighting the US’s increased naval security posture in the region. The bolstering of US forces in the region is likely a response to increasing Iranian-affiliated proxies targeting US forces, particularly in Iraq and Syria, bolstering defences for US forces and regional allies.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Over the past 24 hours, the Rafah border crossing has remained partially open to foreign nationals while humanitarian aid continues to enter Gaza at a reduced rate. At present, approximately 100 humanitarian aid trucks are reportedly entering Gaza via the crossing per day. On 5 November, the Royal Jordanian Air Force also airdropped medical aid into Gaza for use in the Jordanian field hospital in Gaza City, in a co-ordinated mission with the IDF. Although partially-resumed deliveries of humanitarian aid into Gaza have moderately alleviated widespread food and water insecurity, the ongoing fuel blockade continues to limit access to medical facilities and care sustaining elevated humanitarian concerns.
On 5 November, Gaza’s largest telecommunications firm, Paltel, announced that phone and internet services had been cut for the third time since the IDF ground offensive began on 29 October. The communications blackout lasted for approximately fifteen hours from 5-6 November and coincided with the IDF advancing its position on the Mediterranean coast in Gaza. Further telecommunications blackouts are highly likely as the ground offensive continues, sustaining risks of disruption to communications with on-the-ground staff in Gaza and complicating evacuation efforts.
On 6 November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the suspension of Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu from cabinet meetings. This comes after Eliyahu commented that using nuclear weapons in Gaza was ‘one way’ of defeating Hamas during a radio interview on 5 November. This statement has been widely condemned by other members of Israel’s cabinet, and by numerous neighbouring states including Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Eliyahu is a junior minister and is not a member of the war cabinet, meaning he does not have a role in decision-making relating to the Israel-Hamas war. Even so, this statement has further exacerbated diplomatic tensions in the region, potentially undermining ongoing hostage negotiations.
On 5 November, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah (West Bank). During this meeting, Blinken expressed support for humanitarian pauses in the IDF’s ground offensive in Gaza to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and the release of hostages. Despite increasing international pressure to adopt a temporary ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that there will be no pauses in the IDF ground operation until all hostages held by militant groups in Gaza are released. However, a short humanitarian pause of several hours remains a realistic possibility due to mounting US and international pressure.
On 5 November, hundreds of protesters stormed Incirlik Air Base (Turkey), which hosts US forces, during a pro-Palestinian rally. The rally preceded US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to Turkey, also on 5 November. Turkish police subsequently dispersed protesters using water cannons and tear gas. The incident reflects rising anti-US sentiment in Turkey, given the Biden administration’s continued support for Israel during the Israel-Hamas war. As the conflict continues, pro-Palestinian rallies in Turkey will almost certainly continue, particularly in Ankara and Istanbul. Localised clashes and heavy-handed police dispersal tactics will increase bystander risks in affected areas. There is also a realistic possibility of violence targeting locations associated with the Israeli and/or US governments, elevating physical security risks to staff and assets, including consuls and embassies. Risks for personnel and business will also be sustained, particularly for Israeli nationals, in Turkey and throughout the wider region.
On 6 November, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office announced the temporary recall of some non-essential embassy staff from Lebanon. This announcement reflects increasing concerns over continued hostilities between the IDF and LH and/or allied militants in locations along the Israel-Lebanon border. While there is a realistic possibility of further conflict escalation, a full-scale mobilisation of LH fighters is unlikely. Even so, further small-scale escalations in missile fire, drone strikes and reciprocal artillery fire will sustain elevated physical security and bystander risks in areas close to the Israel-Lebanon border.

FORECAST

Continued IDF operations in the West Bank and calls by Palestinian militants for mass mobilisation will sustain risks of attacks in the coming days. While mass mobilisation remains unlikely, continued and increasing inflammatory rhetoric by Palestinian and pro-Palestinian militant groups will sustain the risk of major unrest in the West Bank. Furthermore, continued calls of mobilisation will increase the likelihood of sole perpetrator attacks in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. These are likely to be low capabilities attacks, including stabbings, shootings and car ramming attacks, mainly targeting the security forces in the area. However, bystander risks will remain elevated across Israel, particularly around Jerusalem and in locations that attract large gatherings and at religious worship sites.

Bolstering of US forces in the region will likely deter Iranian proxies from launching large-scale attacks on Israel, although targeting of US forces in Iraq and Syria will likely continue. Continued targeting and threats against US forces in the region will increase the likelihood of further US military retaliations against locations and assets associated with the Iranian-backed, Islamic Revolutionary Corps Guard (IRGC) locations, particularly in Iraq and Syria. These will further elevate bystander and security risks in the region; however, current hostilities are unlikely to trigger a major regional escalation.

Attacks on the on Israel-Lebanon border resulting in civilian casualties will likely trigger additional retaliatory attacks on northern Israel, increase physical security risks. Continued clashes and elevated tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border will increase the likelihood of miscalculation, and over the coming days, high casualty strikes involving civilians cannot be ruled out. LH, particularly after Nasrallah’s speech on 3 November, is showing greater intent to retaliate for incidents, likely in an effort to bolster its image as a protector of Lebanese civilians. Consequently, tit-for-tat clashes and strikes between the IDF and LH will likely increase in frequency following IDF attacks resulting in Lebanese civilian casualties. Elevated risks of rockets launched towards Israeli population centres in northern Israel, including Safed and Karmiel, will sustain physical security and bystander risks to civilians, particularly in proximity to the Israel-Lebanon border. At present however, LH and allied militants in southern Lebanon continue to focus the majority of strikes on IDF positions to disrupt operations and draw IDF resources away from the ground offensive in l. We continue to assess that a major escalation involving mass mobilisation of LH ground forces into Israel remains unlikely.

A prolonged war will elevate food security and supply chain risks across Israel. The Gaza envelope area, as well as those areas in northern Israel currently at increased exposure to rocket strikes from Lebanon, are both primarily agricultural zones. Limited agricultural activity, particularly in the Gaza envelope following the 7 October attack and the continued war, is likely to negatively impact fresh agricultural produce over the long term. Furthermore, the diversion of ships from Ashkelon seaport to Ashdod and Haifa seaports, together with rocket sirens and low workforce presence, are likely to sustain current supply chain disruption of commodities arriving by sea. While the current level of disruption is unlikely to present a major challenge, continued disruption over the long term is likely to accumulate delays and further disruption.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
The ongoing IDF ground operation into Gaza expands beyond the northern area of the enclave

Turkey: Storming of base housing US forces reflects elevated anti-western sentiment, security risks. On 5 November, hundreds of protesters stormed Incirlik Air Base (Adana province), which hosts US forces, during a pro-Palestinian rally. Turkish police subsequently dispersed protestors using water cannons and tear gas. The rally preceded US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to Turkey, also on 5 November. The incident reflects rising anti-US sentiment, given the Biden administration’s support for Israel during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. As the war continues, pro-Palestinian rallies will almost certainly continue, particularly in Ankara and Istanbul, with the likelihood of localised clashes and heavy-handed police dispersal tactics increasing bystander risks. Rising anti-Israel and anti-Western sentiment, particularly anti-US sentiment, will also elevate risks of targeted violence against assets and locations associated with Israel and the US. There is a realistic possibility of further perimeter incursions, vandalism and looting, elevating security risks to assets of governments aligned with Israel, including consuls and embassies. Risks for personnel and business will also be sustained, particularly for Israeli nationals.

US-Middle East: Secretary of State visit underscores concern over regional destabilisation, tensions. On 5 November, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the West Bank city of Ramallah (Palestinian Territories) before visiting Iraq’s capital Baghdad. Notably, Blinken met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Blinken has also sought to assure Middle East allies that the US is working to prevent broader regional destabilisation and conflict spillover from the Israel-Hamas war. This follows the increased targeting of US military personnel and assets in Iraq and Syria by Hizballah-aligned militia and other Iranian proxies. The increased US force posture in the region is unlikely to reduce the targeting of US military positions in the region, however, it is likely to improve air defence capabilities for regional allies. The US is likely to continue to counter with air strikes against Iranian-aligned militia positions, including munitions depots, in Iraq and Syria. (Source: Sibylline)

10 Nov 23. Gaza officials say hospitals come under new Israeli attacks.

Summary
Indonesian Hospital in Gaza damaged in overnight explosion, Indonesian foreign ministry
Indonesia “condemns the savage attacks on civilians and civilian objects, especially humanitarian facilities in Gaza”

Gaza officials said Israel launched air strikes on or near at least three hospitals on Friday, further endangering a health system swamped with thousands of casualties and people displaced by Israel’s war against Hamas in the Palestinian enclave.

“The Israeli occupation launched simultaneous strikes on a number of hospitals during the past hours,” Gaza Ministry of Health spokesman Ashraf Al-Qidra told Al Jazeera television.

Qidra said Israel targeted the courtyard of Al Shifa, the biggest hospital in Gaza City, and there were casualties, but he did not provide details. Israel said Hamas has hidden command centres and tunnels beneath Al Shifa, allegations Hamas denies.

Israel’s military did not immediately comment on Qidra’s statement, which Reuters could not independently verify.

The month-old Israeli military campaign to wipe out Hamas, following the militants’ Oct. 7 raid on southern Israel, has left Gaza’s hospitals struggling to cope, as medical supplies, clean water and fuel to power generators have been running out.

Gaza’s health ministry has said 18 of Gaza’s 35 hospitals and 40 other health centres were out of service either due to damage from bombardment or lack of fuel.

Palestinian media published video footage on Friday of Al Shifa, which Reuters was unable to authenticate immediately, that it said showed the aftermath of an Israeli attack on a parking lot where displaced Palestinians were sheltered and journalists were observing.

A pool of blood could be seen next to the body of a man being placed on a stretcher.

“With ongoing strikes and fighting nearby (Al Shifa), we are gravely concerned about the well-being of thousands of civilians there, many children among them, seeking medical care and shelter,” Human Rights Watch said on social media site X.

Qidra said Al-Rantisi Pediatric Hospital and Al-Nasr Children’s Hospital “have been witnessing a series of direct attacks and bombardments” on Friday. He said strikes on the hospital grounds at Al-Rantisi set vehicles on fire but they had been partly extinguished.

Indonesia’s foreign ministry said on Friday there were explosions near the Indonesian Hospital overnight, which damaged parts of the hospital, located at the northern end of the narrow coastal enclave. It did not say who was responsible for the explosion and it did not report any deaths or injuries.

“Indonesia once again condemns the savage attacks on civilians and civilian objects, especially humanitarian facilities in Gaza,” the ministry said in a statement.

U.S. SAYS ISRAEL AGREES TO PAUSES

Israel says 1,400 people, mostly civilians, were killed and about 240 taken hostage by Hamas in the Oct.7 raid that triggered the Israeli assault. Israel says it has lost 35 soldiers in Gaza.

Palestinian officials said 10,812 Gaza residents had been killed as of Thursday, about 40% of them children, in air and artillery strikes. A humanitarian catastrophe has unfolded as basic supplies like food and water run out and shelling displaces civilians from their homes.

Israel’s military has said it has evidence that Hamas uses Al Shifa and other hospitals such as the Indonesian Hospital to hide command posts and entry points to an extensive tunnel network under Gaza. It says it does not target civilians, and it has allowed some wounded Palestinian civilians to cross into Egypt for treatment.

But Israel’s military advance on central Gaza City, which brought tanks within about 1.2 kilometre (3/4 mile) of Al Shifa, according to residents, has raised questions about how Israel will interpret international laws on protecting medical centres and displaced people sheltering there.

Deadly air strikes on refugee camps, a medical convoy and near hospitals have already prompted fierce arguments among some of Israel’s Western allies over its military’s adherence to international law.

U.S. President Joe Biden said in a post on X on Thursday that Israel has “an obligation to distinguish between terrorists and civilians and fully comply with international law.”

The White House said on Thursday that Israel agreed to pause military operations in parts of north Gaza for four hours a day, but there was no sign of a let-up in the fighting.

The pauses, which would allow people to flee along two humanitarian corridors and could be used for the release of hostages, were significant first steps, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested any pauses would be scattered, and there was no official confirmation of a plan for recurring breaks.

Asked if there would be a “stoppage” in fighting, Netanyahu said on the Fox News Channel: “No. The fighting continues against the Hamas enemy, the Hamas terrorists, but in specific locations for a given period of a few hours here or a few hours there, we want to facilitate the safe passage of civilians away from the zone of fight and we’re doing that.”

On the ground in northern Gaza, there were no reports of a lull in fighting. Each side reported inflicting heavy casualties on the other in intense street battles. (Source: Reuters)

09 Nov 23. Fierce fighting in Gaza City; US says Palestinians must govern Gaza post-war.

Israeli tanks meet fierce resistance from Hamas fighters
Hamas uses tunnels to ambush Israeli forces in Gaza City
US calls for Gaza, West Bank to be united under Palestinian Authority governance after war
US wants limits on Israeli control of post-war Gaza

Street battles raged in Gaza City with Hamas fighters using tunnels to ambush Israeli forces, as the United States said Palestinians must govern Gaza post-war, countering Israeli comments that it would control security indefinitely.

The Israeli military said its troops had advanced into the heart of Gaza City, Hamas’ main bastion and the biggest city in the seaside enclave, while the Islamist group said its fighters had inflicted heavy losses.

Hamas’ armed wing on Wednesday released a video that appeared to show intense street battles alongside bombed out buildings in Gaza City.

Israeli tanks have met heavy resistance from Hamas fighters using underground tunnels to stage ambushes, according to sources with Iran-backed Hamas and the separate Islamic Jihad militant group.

Israel struck Gaza in response to a cross-border Hamas raid on southern Israel on Oct. 7 in which gunmen killed 1,400 people, mostly civilians, and took about 240 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Palestinian officials said 10,569 people had been killed as of Wednesday, 40% of them children. Israel says 33 of its soldiers have been killed.

PALESTINIAN-LED GOVERNANCE

As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, Washington has begun discussing with Israeli and Arab leaders a future for the Gaza Strip without Hamas rule.

While a plan has yet to emerge, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined Washington’s expectations for the besieged coastal territory.

(Source: Reuters)

06 Nov 23. U.S. Has 4 Objectives in Middle East. The Defense Department currently has four lines of effort in the Middle East, said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, who briefed the media today. Protection of U.S. forces and citizens in the region. Flow of critical security assistance to Israel as it defends against further Hamas terrorist attacks.

Coordination with the Israelis to help secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, to include American citizens.

Strengthening of force posture across the region to deter any state or nonstate actors from escalating the crisis beyond Gaza.

Strengthened force posture includes the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Groups, which are currently in the U.S. Central Command area, along with an Ohio-class submarine.

Over the past few weeks there have been attacks by Iranian proxy groups at al-Asad air base, Iraq, and al-Tanf, Syria, on U.S. forces there, Ryder said.

The attacks, by drones and missiles, resulted in several dozen injuries, including a mix of minor injuries and traumatic brain injuries, he said.

Some of those injured didn’t immediately report their condition, he said.

“The reporting data is highly dependent on self-reporting when individual injuries are not visually evident to medical personnel providing care directly following an incident,” he said. (Source: US Navy)

07 Nov 23. US Ohio-class submarine sent as a new form of Middle East deterrence. US Central Command (CENTCOM) diversifies its support for Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean with the presence of an Ohio-class submarine. Late on 5 November, US CENTCOM posted an update on the social media platform X stating that the form of ‘deterrence’ it is taking against militant groups, such as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group, in the Levant region has broadened in support of Israel.

Currently, Israel is engaged in a war against Hamas after the organisation’s surprise attack against the country on 7 October. Recent reports tell us that it has taken little over a week for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to establish a perimeter around Gaza city.

The X post displays an image of what the US Department of Defense (DoD) Press Secretary, Brigadier General Pat Ryder, confirmed a day later to be an Ohio-class submarine.

Accompanying the image, CENTCOM provided an update, stating “an Ohio-class submarine [has] arrived in the US Central Command area of responsibility.”

This comes after the DoD recently streamlined its chain of command, bringing the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group under the direction of CENTCOM for a faster response time to ongoing developments in the Middle Eastern conflict.

Diversifying US deterrence in the region

The decision to deploy an Ohio-class submarine comes as the latest form of US deterrence in a domain that Israel’s ally has not taken until now.

So far, the DoD has sent two Carrier Strike Groups to the Eastern Mediterranean, led by Ford and Eisenhower, and prepared US Air Force squadrons across the Middle East region.

A subsurface presence now serves to indicate the increased concern that the Israel-Hamas war may spill over into other areas of the region. Their object is to deter other militant groups that are eager to participate and broaden the conflict even further.

This decision follows the IDF intercepting “surface-to-surface cruise missiles” launched toward Israeli airspace from the “south-east” on 2 November. The implication is that the missiles were fired by Iranian-backed Houthis based in Yemen.

What is significant about the decision to send an Ohio-class submarine?

Another critical issue worth noting is the type of Ohio-class submarine that has been deployed. There are two types: the nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and the conventional guided missile submarine (SSGN).

In September 2002, the original equipment manufacturer, General Dynamics Electric Boat, received a contract to convert USS Ohio (SSBN 726), Michigan (727), Florida (728) and Georgia (729) from SSBNs to SSGNs.

The boats were refitted with up to 154 Tomahawk land attack or Tactical Tomahawk (block IV) missiles and are also capable of conducting special operations missions with accommodation for Northrop Grumman advanced SEAL delivery systems, mission control centre and 102 special operation troops.

Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems is adapting the missile launch tubes, developing a multiple all-up round canister (MAC), which provides storage and launch of up to seven Tomahawk missiles from each of the submarine’s 22 missile tubes. The SSGN submarines are also fitted with the Raytheon AN/BYG-1 combat data system.

On the other hand, SSBNs are equipped with Trident nuclear ballistic missiles from Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space. The submarines received the new D5LE missiles in 2013 under the D5 life extension programme. The new missiles are expected to remain in service till the 2040s.

In a 6 November DoD press briefing, Ryder did not reveal whether the Ohio-class submarine deployed to CENTCOM area of responsibility was an SSGN or SSBN – this dispels recent reports speculating the deployment of the latter. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

07 Nov 23. Israel says it is open to Gaza fighting pauses for aid, hostages.

Summary
Jewish peace group leads protests at NY’s Statue of Liberty
A Jewish man injured during dueling pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests in California died on Monday
G7 foreign ministers meeting in Tokyo plan to urge for pause in fighting, humanitarian aid to Gaza – Japan’s Kamikawa
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would consider “tactical little pauses” in fighting to facilitate the entry of aid or the exit of hostages from the Gaza Strip, but again rejected calls for a ceasefire despite international pressure.

Having encircled the densely populated Gaza City in the north of the enclave, where the Hamas Islamist group is based, Israel’s military said it had taken a militant compound and was set to attack fighters hiding in a warren of underground tunnels.

Israel has bombarded the enclave since the Hamas raid on southern Israel one month ago, when its fighters killed 1,400 people and seized 240 hostages.

Gaza health officials say the Israeli assault has killed more than 10,000 Palestinians, including some 4,100 children.

Both Israel and Hamas have rebuffed mounting calls for a halt in fighting. Israel says hostages should be released first. Hamas says it will not free them nor stop fighting while Gaza is under attack.Netanyahu said a general ceasefire would hamper his country’s war effort, but pausing fighting for humanitarian reasons, an idea supported by Israel’s top ally the United States, would continue to be considered based on circumstances.

“As far as tactical little pauses – an hour here, an hour there – we’ve had them before. I suppose we’ll check the circumstances in order to enable goods, humanitarian goods to come in, or our hostages, individual hostages, to leave,” Netanyahu told ABC News on Monday.

“But I don’t think there’s going to be a general ceasefire.”

U.S. President Joe Biden discussed such pauses and possible hostage releases in a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, reiterating his support for Israel while emphasising that it must protect civilians, the White House said.

Like Israel, the U.S. fears Hamas would take advantage of a full ceasefire to regroup.

Netanyahu said when the conflict is over he thinks “Israel will for an indefinite period … have the overall security responsibility (in Gaza) because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have that security responsibility.”

Calling for an urgent ceasefire, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned on Monday that Gaza is becoming a “graveyard for children”.

“Ground operations by the Israel Defense Forces and continued bombardment are hitting civilians, hospitals, refugee camps, mosques, churches and U.N. facilities – including shelters. No one is safe,” Guterres told reporters.

“At the same time, Hamas and other militants use civilians as human shields and continue to launch rockets indiscriminately towards Israel,” he said.

International organizations have said hospitals cannot cope with the wounded and food and clean water are running out with aid deliveries nowhere near enough.

“We need an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. It’s been 30 days. Enough is enough. This must stop now,” said a statement from the heads of several United Nations’ bodies on Monday.

Hundreds of protesters, many from the group Jewish Voice for Peace, staged a sit-in on Monday outside New York’s Statue of Liberty, calling for a cease-fire and a free Palestine.

Video on social media showed throngs of activists sitting at the base of the statue chanting “Never again for anyone, never again is now,” echoing a Jewish rallying cry in the aftermath of the Holocaust.

A Jewish man who fell to the ground in an altercation during dueling pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian street protests in California died on Monday, and his death was determined to be a homicide, law enforcement and a Jewish organization said.

GAZA CITY CUT OFF

The Israeli military on Monday released video of tanks moving through bombed-out streets and groups of troops moving on foot. It says it has surrounded Gaza City, cutting off northern parts of the narrow coastal strip from the south.

In a press briefing, chief military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said troops were hunting Hamas field level commanders to weaken the militants’ ability “to carry out counter attacks.”

The U.N. Security Council met behind closed doors on Monday. The 15-member body is still trying to agree a resolution after failing four times in two weeks to take action. Diplomats said a key obstacle is whether to call for a ceasefire, cessation of hostilities or humanitarian pauses to allow aid access in Gaza.

At a meeting of foreign ministers from the G7 leading democracies in Tokyo, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa said the group plans to call for a pause in fighting and allowing humanitarian access to Gaza.

Biden’s administration has informed the U.S. Congress that it is planning a $320 m transfer of precision bombs for Israel, a source familiar with the plan said on Monday.

Israel said on Monday it was striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in response to a barrage of rockets fired at northern Israeli cities. The Israeli military said it detected around 30 launches from Lebanon in an hour.

The Iran-backed Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces across the Lebanese-Israeli frontier since Oct. 7, in the worst fighting there since Hezbollah and Israel fought a war in 2006.

Hamas said it had launched 16 missiles towards Nahariyya and southern Haifa in Israel. (Source: Reuters)

06 Nov 23. IKE Carrier Strike Group Arrives in Middle East Region. The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (IKECSG) arrived in the Middle East as part of the increase in regional posture, Nov. 4.

The strike group is commanded by Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 2 and comprised of flagship aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), guided-missile destroyers USS Mason (DDG 87) and USS Gravely (DDG 107) of Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 22, Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 3 with its nine squadrons, and the Information Warfare Commander.

Dwight D. Eisenhower, Philippine Sea, and Mason entered the Red Sea after transiting from the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal, Nov. 4. CSGs bring to the region additional aviation and naval assets, providing greater flexibility and maritime capability to U.S. 5th Fleet.

“The arrival of IKECSG to Middle East region displays our speed and agility to flex as our nation’s leaders determined a balance of maritime capability in support of national security priorities,” said Rear Adm. Marc Miguez, commander, CSG-2, IKECSG. “The strike group brings an unparalleled combat superiority to CENTCOM and we will be leveraging our presence in the theater to enhance regional security and operate alongside our allies and partners.”

Squadrons of CVW-3 include the “Gunslingers” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 105, the “Fighting Swordsmen” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 32, the “Rampagers” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 83, the “Wildcats” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 131, the “Screwtops” of Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron (VAW) 123, the “Zappers” of Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 130, the “Dusty Dogs” of Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 7, the “Swamp Foxes” of Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 74 and the “Rawhides” of Fleet Logistics Support Squadron (VRC) 40.

IKECSG units departed their homeports of Norfolk, Virginia, and Mayport, Florida, on Oct. 13 & 14 for a scheduled deployment.

The U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations encompasses approximately 2.5 m square miles of water space and includes the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, parts of the Indian Ocean and three critical choke points at the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal and Strait of Bab al-Mandeb.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/USN)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Home land Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

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