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Military And Security Developments
Sep 01.
01 Sept 24. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant today.
Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant discussed Israel’s recovery of the remains of six hostages in Gaza murdered by Hamas, including the 23-year-old American citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin. The Secretary passed along his deepest condolences to the families of all of the slain hostages, and he expressed outrage at their vicious, illegal, and immoral execution at the hands of Hamas. The Secretary affirmed that Hamas leaders must be held accountable for their crimes. And Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant reaffirmed their mutual commitment to swiftly reaching a ceasefire deal to secure the release of all of the hostages.
Secretary Austin also conveyed his condolences for three Israeli police officers killed in an apparent terrorist attack in the West Bank this morning and expressed his concern over rising tensions and increased terrorist activity there this week. (Source: U.S. DoD)
01 Sept 24. Call For Strikes in Israel. On 1 September, the Histadrut labour federation, Israel’s largest union, called for a one-day general strike due to the government’s failure to secure hostage releases from Gaza. Numerous other unions, including the Teacher’s Union, the Israeli Business Forum and several city municipalities have also announced their participation. The strike will last for one day on 2 September.
SIGNIFICANCE
* Calls for a strike intensified after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the deaths of six Israeli hostages in Gaza on 1 September. Reports indicate that Hamas militants killed the hostages shortly before or during an IDF operation to secure their release.
* Histadrut last called a general strike on 27 March 2023 after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over his criticism of the government’s efforts to reform the judiciary. The strike triggered significant disruption in the public and private sectors, leading to Gallant’s reinstatement.
FORECAST
The strike will significantly elevate risks of travel and supply chain disruption from 2 September, increasing operational risks nationwide. The strike is highly likely to increase labour flexibility concerns for firms with operations in Israel, particularly in highly unionised sectors. Strike action will likely significantly disrupt operations in the aviation, shipping and transportation industries. The strike is highly likely to disrupt movement through Ben Gurion International Airport (TVL) over the coming days; airport authorities have announced that the airport will close from 0800hrs (local time) on 2 September, without a definite timeline for resuming operations. Travel and freight delays are highly likely to persist over the coming days, elevating risks of supply chain disruption. Numerous other unions are highly likely to participate in strike action, including teaching and healthcare labour federations. As such, risks of disruption to private and public sector services, including schools, non-emergency medical facilities and public transport networks, will remain substantially elevated over the coming days. Protests supporting strike action and calling for the government to secure hostage releases through a ceasefire agreement are highly likely throughout the coming week, elevating major travel disruption risks. Over the coming hours, sporadic anti-government protests are highly likely to emerge in major urban centres including Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), increasing risks of localised travel disruption. Large-scale and co-ordinated protests are highly likely on 2 September in population centres throughout Israel, significantly disrupting overland movement and business operations. Demonstrations are highly likely to be well attended, with tens of thousands of protestors likely gathering in Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district). Large-scale demonstrations are also highly likely in Caesarea and Haifa (both Haifa district), with smaller-scale demonstrations likely in Rehovot and Rishon LeZion (both Central district), Karmiel (Northern district), Ashdod, Beersheva, Mitzpe Ramon and Sderot (all Southern district), Herzliya and Kfar Saba (Tel Aviv). Though demonstrations will likely remain broadly peaceful, isolated clashes with police personnel are likely, elevating localised bystander a risks. Demonstrators are highly likely to block key thoroughfares and significantly disrupt movement along national highways, particularly Highways 1, 4 and 20.
Although the strike substantially increases pressure on the Israeli government to secure hostage releases, an agreement remains unlikely in the coming days, sustaining risks of further strike action. Hamas is highly likely to leverage the increasing pressure on the Israeli government to gain further concessions from Israel, which hardline coalition government members including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezel Smotrich will almost certainly oppose. Due to increasing tension between public demands for an agreement and Netanyahu’s efforts to moderate government instability risks, an agreement remains unlikely in the coming days. Even if Israel and Hamas’ delegations make significant progress in negotiations, widespread disruption to telecommunication networks in Gaza and concerns over Hamas’ ability to credibly commit to release hostages will likely delay efforts to swiftly reach an agreement over the coming days (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 29 August 2024). Consequently, risks of further strike action will remain elevated in the short term, exacerbating operational disruption and labour flexibility concerns.
Aug 29.
KEY POINTS
- Lebanese Hizballah (LH) launched a significant attack on Israel, however, prospects of significant Israel-LH military escalation in the immediate term remain low.
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) opened a wide military operation in the northern West Bank following the past week’s increase in militant attacks, elevating risks of armed conflict and attacks in the West Bank.
- Gaza Strip: Cross-border rocket launch targeting central Israel reflects sustained security risks in Israel amid IDF operations in Gaza. On 25 August, Hamas launched a rocket into central Israel, hitting an open area in Rishon LeZion (Central district) causing no casualties. The launch highlights sustained security risks associated with persistent but low-level capacity to target central Israel. The launch was likely prompted by Hamas efforts to utilise stockpiles in Khan Yunis’ Al-Qarara area before local IDF operations resulted in their capture, underlining the possibility for a spike in such strikes during IDF actions in Gaza. On 27 August, the IDF rescued a live hostage from an underground tunnel in southern Gaza. According to the hostage, his guards fled two weeks prior, after hearing IDF drilling. This highlights likely challenges by Hamas to aggregate specific hostages that might be named in any potential ceasefire deal, further undermining negotiations.
- West Bank: IED detonation reflects intensifying militant activity and risk of expansion to southern West Bank. On 25 August, an improvised explosive device (IED) buried under a road near Marah Rabah (Bethlehem governorate) detonated on a civilian Israeli bus causing light material damage but no injuries. On the same day, militants performed a car-ramming attack, targeting Israeli-plated vehicles and IDF positions in Ariel Junction near the Israeli population centre Ariel (Salfit governorate), lightly injuring one civilian. The attacks reflect the growing intensity and frequency of Palestinian militant operations, as well as the increasing targeting of civilian vehicles in the West Bank. The IED attack also reflects a slow expansion of militant activities from traditional hot spots in the northern West Bank to southern areas, underlining growing security and attack risks in the West Bank and Jerusalem area.
- West Bank: Increasing Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian populations elevate ethno-religious tensions, radicalisation risks. On 24 August, dozens of Israeli settlers from Itamar (Nablus governorate) attacked Palestinians in Rujeib (Nablus governorate) with stones, resulting in material damage to several Palestinian vehicles. On the same day, eight baton-armed Israeli settlers injured two Palestinians in Khirbet Susya (Hebron governorate). In a notable incident on 25 August, Israeli settlers lethally shot one Israeli-Arab and injured four Palestinians in an attack in Wadi Rahhal (Bethlehem governorate). The IDF opened an investigation into the incident amid reports of the alleged involvement of IDF territorial defence members. Following the incident Hamas called for demonstrations and attacks against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians in the West Bank. Rising ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank will continue to elevate security and bystander risks, including to NGO staff in the vicinity of clashes/attacks. Furthermore, these are likely to further increase radicalisation among the Palestinian population, including in the southern West Bank where militant groups have a lower presence, elevating attack risks in the area.
- West Bank: On 27 August, the IDF launched a major military operation against militants in the northern West Bank, elevating local security and bystander risks. The operation is likely to continue over the coming days, with operations focusing primarily on Far’a (Tubas governorate), Jenin (Jenin governorate) and Tulkarm (Tulkarm governorate) and their environs. However, the IDF also operate in Nablus (Nablus governorate), Nur Shams (Tulkarm), Qalqilya (Qalqilya governorate) and Tubas (Tubas). The IDF has killed at least 17 individuals suspected of terrorism and arrested 30 more since the start of the operation. Additionally, since the operations launch the IDF has increased the frequency and intensity of its use of drone strikes and air support. The IDF is also surrounding hospitals and filtering those who enter them. The IDF claim the operation is in response to the attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv on 18 August . The operations will elevate risks of armed clashes, bystander security risks and travel disruption throughout the West Bank in the coming days.
- Israel-Lebanon: On 25 August Lebanese Hizballah (LH) launched its promised response to the killing of Fuad Shukr, firing over 320 rockets and 20 drones targeting IDF bases in northern and central Israel. The IDF launched pre-emptive strikes across southern Lebanon, targeting LH rocket launchers approximately an hour before the attack (see Sibylline Alert – 25 August 2024). The IDF has denied LH claims the attack successfully struck 11 IDF bases, and local media have not identified any significant damage, though shrapnel from an IDF interceptor did kill one IDL naval serviceperson, while another interception injured a civilian in Acre (Northern district). Acre also marked the furthest confirmed range of the LH attack, with shrapnel from interceptions causing limited material damage to civilian buildings. LH also targeted the IDF Glilot-base compound, near Herzliya (Tel Aviv district) which includes the headquarters of IDF’s 8,200 intelligence unit and Mossad. Following the attack, both Israel and LH indicated they do not imminently intend to further intensify hostilities, reducing risks of significant escalation and unmanaged armed conflict. In the days following the attack, cross-border hostilities between Israel-LH reduced in intensity below the levels observed since 19 August. However, tensions remain high and hostilities are likely to gradually grow in intensity in the coming days, though likely to remain below levels of major escalation.
- Israel-Syria: On 29 August, the IDF intercepted an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) en route from Syria to Israel, reflecting elevated security risks in north-west Israel and Syria. According to the IDF, the UAV was intercepted before crossing into Israeli territory. On 28 August, the IDF conducted an airstrike targeting a vehicle on the Damascus-Beirut Highway near Al-Zabadani Junction (Rif Dimashq governorate), killing four Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) operatives and one LH member. The incidents highlight the growing mobilisation of militants in Syria and co-operation with LH. As such, the IDF will likely further increase the frequency of its strikes in Syria, particularly in border areas with Lebanon and Iraq.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- A confirmed case of polio in Gaza highlights significantly elevated risks of disease transmission, as humanitarian conditions remain critical. On 23 August, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that an infant contracted polio, marking the first case in Gaza in 25 years. The WHO previously announced on 19 July that it had detected poliovirus in Gazan water samples, almost certainly resulting from conflict-related damage to sanitation facilities and water infrastructure. Since the IDF launched ground operations in October, civilian access to health facilities has been substantially restricted, particularly impacting vaccination programmes for infants and children. Although numerous NGOs have announced plans to increase vaccination availability in Gaza over the coming weeks, continued clashes between the IDF and Gazan militants will sustain significant disruption to delivery and distribution efforts. More broadly, NGOs continue to face critical security conditions within Gaza, significantly disrupting operations and supply chains. Following IDF evacuation orders in central Gaza, the United Nations announced the temporary suspension of operations in Gaza on 26 August, while on 28 August the World Food Programme (WFP) halted staff movement within the enclave due to a shooting incident targeting a convoy in the Kerem Shalom area (southern Gaza). Consequently, humanitarian conditions within Gaza are unlikely to improve in the short term, with food security risks and public health concerns remaining elevated.
- Additional US sanctions targeting Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank highlight sustained bilateral tensions and compliance concerns for firms with operations in Israel. On 28 August, the US announced a sixth round of sanctions on settlers in the West Bank, this one targeting Hashomer Yosh, a non-profit organisation providing security services for settlements, outposts and agricultural holdings, and its security director. Hashomer Yosh has previously received funding from Israel’s Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of the Environment; as such, the sanctions highlight moderately increased bilateral tensions with the US, amid increasing settler violence in the West Bank (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 19 August 2024). Although the US will likely continue increasing sanctions on individuals and entities associated with settlement expansion and attacks on Palestinian civilians, broader changes to the Israel-US relationship remain unlikely. Even so, as Hashomer Yosh collects funds through numerous international fundraising networks (including JGive) entities processing donations to charities and non-profits with operations in the West Bank will face elevated sanction exposure risks. Similarly, financial institutions and entities operating in Israel will face increasing compliance concerns, particularly those servicing settlements and outposts.
- Anti-government protest activity continues at pace throughout Israel, with elevated participation in the coming days sustaining travel disruption risks. On 24 August, tens of thousands of protesters attended weekly demonstrations throughout Israel calling for the government to secure hostage releases through ceasefire negotiations. The largest demonstrations occurred in Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), temporarily restricting movement through both city centres. Smaller-scale demonstrations also took place in Ness Ziona and Taiba (both Central district), Caesarea and Haifa (both Haifa district), with protests remaining largely peaceful. Subsequently, protesters continued sporadic demonstrations along Highways 1 and 20, though did not significantly restrict movement along targeted routes. On 28 and 29 August, dozens of hostages’ family members travelled from Tel Aviv to Kibbutz Nirim (Southern district) and called for the government to secure hostage releases as soon as possible in a high-profile demonstration which will likely increase participation at anti-government rallies on 31 August. The rescue of Israeli hostage Kaid Farhan Elkadi during an IDF operation on 27 August and the retrieval of the remains of a soldier killed on 7 October from southern Gaza on 28 August, will also likely increase protest participation, increasing operational and travel disruption in major urban centres on 31 August.
- Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir continues to exacerbate ethno-religious tensions in Jerusalem, increasing risks of attacks and sustaining regional tensions. On 26 August, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir made several inflammatory statements in an interview relating to the al Aqsa mosque compound, including the establishment of a Jewish temple within the compound. The statements come after Ben Gvir called for changes to ordinances prohibiting Jewish prayers within the compound on 13 August (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 15 August 2024). Ben Gvir’s increasingly provocative statements regarding the management of the compound are highly likely to sustain elevated ethno-religious tensions in the Jerusalem area. Sustained tensions drive risks of localised clashes and attacks within the city, particularly in the Old City, though high-capacity militant attacks remain unlikely. Furthermore, numerous regional parties, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have condemned the statements, while members of Israel’s opposition and government coalition have similarly rejected Ben Gvir’s statements. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is highly unlikely to dismiss Ben Gvir in the short term due to a lack of alternative coalition partners. As such, we continue to assess that threats to government stability remain low, though regional tensions linked to the management of the al Aqsa mosque compound will remain elevated.
- Clashes during anti-conscription protests in Jerusalem highlight elevated bystander risks as the IDF continues efforts to conscript ultra-Orthodox men. On 21 August, dozens of anti-conscription demonstrators clashed with police during a protest outside an IDF recruitment office in western Jerusalem. Police conducted approximately five arrests after protestors threw items at security force personnel, engaged in altercations with motorists and attempted to block the Jerusalem Light Rail public transport system. As less than 10% of ultra-Orthodox men have responded to draft notices issued over the past several weeks, the IDF will almost certainly continue efforts to bolster recruitment, sustaining risks of further protests in the coming weeks. There is also a realistic possibility that the IDF will enforce conscription notices through criminal or civil means over the coming weeks, likely driving an uptick in the frequency and scale of demonstrations. Increasing protest activity will sustain physical security and bystander risks in protest hotspots, such as Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv) and Jerusalem, while protests targeting major thoroughfares and public transport systems will increase risks of temporary operational and supply chain disruption in central Israel.
- Namibian authorities prevented the docking of an Israeli-linked vessel, highlighting elevated risks of supply chain disruption tied to regional tensions. On 27 August, Namibia’s Justice Minister Yvonne Dausab confirmed that port authorities had rejected the MV Kathrin’s request to dock at the Port of Walvis Bay (Erongo province) due to concerns the vessel was carrying explosive materials and military cargo destined for Israel. Dausab stated the decision reflected Namibia’s opposition to IDF ground operations in Gaza and concerns that allowing the vessel to dock would violate Namibia’s commitments to international humanitarian law, highlighting sustained regional tensions linked to the Israel-Hamas war. Over the coming months, vessels carrying cargo associated with IDF operations in Gaza will face elevated risks of docking request refusals, increasing risks of delays and supply chain disruption. Shipping companies handling Israeli military cargo are also highly likely to continue facing elevated reputational concerns, sustaining risks of operational disruption.
- Israel: Anti-immigrant protest underscores growing ethno-religious tensions, risk of domestic unrest. On 28 August, dozens of people protested against the presence of African migrants in the Shapira neighbourhood in south Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district). The gatherings resulted in attacks against migrants at a local sports facility, whom the police subsequently evacuated from the site. Concerns about deteriorating public safety tied to outbreaks of violence between pro- and anti-Eritrean government groups in recent months have exacerbated anti-immigrant hostility, particularly towards Eritrean migrants. Street brawls in Tel Aviv on 24 August resulted in two deaths and eight injuries. We assess there is a realistic possibility of further clashes, both within migrant communities and with anti-migrant protesters in the coming days, underscoring growing ethno-religious tensions and the elevated risk of further unrest. There is a realistic possibility that the authorities will attempt to ameliorate anti-migrant sentiment by cracking down on the employment of illegal migrants, elevating operational and compliance risks facing businesses utilising third parties that possibly employ sanctioned migrants.
Aug 27.
- Israel-Palestinian Territories: IED detonation highlights attack, radicalisation risks. On 25 August, an improvised explosive device (IED) hit an Israeli bus on the road near Marah Rabah (Bethlehem governate) in southern West Bank, causing light material damage and no injuries. The IED was buried under the road, reflecting an increase in the intensity of Palestinian militant attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the growing expansion of their activity from the northern West Bank to the south. Overall, there was a marked increase in militant attacks throughout the weekend. There is a realistic possibility that the Lebanese Hizballah’s (LH) attack on 25 August acted as a flashpoint for this incident, reflecting likely future upticks in West Bank attacks following armed escalation on other fronts. This trend will likely be further exacerbated by rising rates of Israeli settler violence, with at least one death recorded over the weekend. We assess that this will likely compound risks of radicalisation and the likelihood of attacks in the West Bank in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Aug 24. At least nine Palestinians killed as Israel mounts major West Bank operation
Summary
- Palestinian health ministry says at least nine killed
- Israeli military says raids thwarted “immediate threat” to civilians
- Palestinian militant groups say fighters battling Israeli troops
JENIN, West Bank, Aug 28 (Reuters) – At least nine Palestinians were killed on Wednesday, Palestinian authorities said, as Israeli forces raided the flashpoint cities of Jenin and Tulkarm as well as other areas in the occupied West Bank in a major operation involving helicopters and drones.
The assault, one of the largest seen in the West Bank for months, followed a series of smaller raids in the area over recent weeks as Israeli forces sought to crush groups of fighters from Palestinian militant groups.
With Israeli forces battling Hamas fighters in Gaza and facing a major escalation of tensions with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in southern Lebanon, Wednesday’s operation underscored the multiple security threats Israel has been battling since the start of the Gaza war last year.
The armed wings of the Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah factions said in separate statements their gunmen were detonating bombs against Israeli military vehicles in the three West Bank areas.
By midday, the city of Jenin was relatively quiet but in the crowded refugee camp, a heavily built up township adjacent to the main urban area, occasional explosions could be heard.
A short distance outside the city, blood soaked the ground next to a damaged car and an impact crater from a drone strike the Israeli military said had killed three militant fighters.
The Palestinian health ministry said troops had surrounded Jenin’s main hospital, blocking off access with earth mounds – a measure the military said was intended to stop fighters seeking refuge.
A military spokesperson said Wednesday’s operation followed a sharp rise in militant activity in recent months, with more than 150 attacks involving shooting or explosives from Tulkarm and Jenin in the past year.
He said the military assessed there was an “immediate threat” to civilians but he said the operation was part of a broad strategy aimed at thwarting attacks.
“This terror threat in this area is not new, it hasn’t started yesterday and it’s not going to end tomorrow,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters in a briefing. (Source: Reuters)
27 Aug 24. Brown Visits Israel Despite Increased Hostilities in Region.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., on Sunday, followed through with plans to travel to Israel despite an exchange of live fire in the north earlier in the day between the Israeli Defense Forces and Lebanese Hezbollah.
Brown, who had been planning to go to Israel as part of a three-country visit throughout the Middle East, said that he still wanted to make sure he could travel to Tel Aviv, regardless of the day’s earlier combative activity in the region.
“I wanted to make sure we had options to still go to Israel. The exchange occurred pretty early in the morning, so we monitored the situation throughout the day, and I talked to my Israeli counterpart,” Brown told reporters on Monday.
“I factored everything that was going on in real time. It’s no different than what I do in my day-to-day schedule in the Pentagon,” he added.
Having already traveled between Jordan and Egypt during the weekend to meet with his counterparts and other high-level officials, Brown then proceeded to Tel Aviv that evening, where he met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, according to a statement from the chairman’s office.
“The leaders reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-Israeli strategic partnership while also discussing the most recent engagement across and the need to de-escalate tensions to avoid a broader conflict,” the statement reads.
“They also discussed the chairman’s recent engagements with regional partners; Israel having the means to defend itself; the vital need for humanitarian assistance to reach Gaza residents and to minimize civilian casualties; and the importance of preventing the conflict from broadening,” the statement continues.
This was Brown’s second trip to Israel since he became chairman of the Joint Staff in October of 2023. His first visit was with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in December that year.
Brown said that his decision to go to Israel in spite of the day’s earlier exchange of fire demonstrated the United States’ commitment to the region.
“The fact that I still went — I think from a timing perspective — I thought was important,” Brown said.
“The message I carried coming into the region was to deter a broader conflict,” he continued, “and I think by going to all three countries — particularly by going to Israel after the day’s events — it sends a pretty strong message.”
Along the lines of messaging, Brown was asked how the value of trust — what Brown views as the foundation of the United States’ military profession — ties into his work with regional counterparts to achieve strategic goals.
” is as much a priority for me,” he replied.
“I really believe that I learn more by listening; by going in, listening to what our partners have to say and trying to understand their perspective,” Brown said. “And, also, by sharing my perspective — that’s what helps to build that trust.”
After having completed his three-country visit to the Middle East — where the chairman experienced everything from celebrating 75 years of successful diplomatic relations with Jordan, to being the first chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to visit Egypt since 2016, to having to make a crucial, real-time decision as to whether to visit Israel on a day of armed escalation — Brown was asked about the importance of showing up in the region, in-person, rather than conducting foreign relations from the comfort and safety of Washington.
“Anytime I can get out and engage with our partners … and engage with other members of their staff … I think there’s great value in that,” Brown replied.
“That’s how you build trust: by being present.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
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