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Military And Security Developments
Aug. 12. Joint Statement from the Leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom on the Middle East. We, the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, welcome the tireless work of our partners in Qatar, Egypt and the United States towards an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of hostages. We endorse the joint statement of HH Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, President Sisi and President Biden calling for the immediate resumption of negotiations. We agree that there can be no further delay. We have been working with all parties to prevent escalation and will spare no effort to reduce tensions and find a path to stability. The fighting must end now, and all hostages still detained by Hamas must be released. The people of Gaza need urgent and unfettered delivery and distribution of aid. We are deeply concerned by the heightened tensions in the region, and united in our commitment to de-escalation and regional stability. In this context, and in particular, we call on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages. They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability. No country or nation stands to gain from a further escalation in the Middle East. President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
Aug 11.
11 Aug 24. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant today. Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions. Reinforcing this commitment, the Secretary Austin has ordered the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group, equipped with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area of responsibility, adding to the capabilities already provided by the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group. Additionally, the Secretary has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region. Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant also discussed Israel’s operations in Gaza and the importance of mitigating civilian harm, progress towards securing a ceasefire and the release of hostages held in Gaza, and our efforts to deter aggression by Iran, Lebanese Hizballah, and other Iran-aligned groups across the region. (Source: U.S. DoD)
Aug 10.
- Washington will provide Israel $3.5bn to spend on U.S. weapons and military equipment, the State Department said on Friday, with the release of the money coming months after the U.S. Congress appropriated it during Israel’s war in Gaza.A State Department spokesperson said on Friday that the department notified Congress on Thursday that the government intended to release the billions of dollars worth of foreign military financing to Israel. CNN reported earlier on the release of this amount which comes from a $14bn supplemental funding bill for Israel passed by the Congress in April. (Source: Reuters)
Aug 09.
- Israel-Syria: Security risks will be elevated near airports, border amid elevated regional tensions. On 8 August, an alleged Israeli airstrike hit a Lebanese Hizballah (LH) missile warehouse inside an unspecified military base located 3.1 miles (5km) from Shayrat Airbase in south-eastern Homs governorate (Syria). According to early reports, seven combatants were injured during the strike, including three Iranian-backed militants (one of whom is in a critical condition). The strike caused intense secondary explosions for about an hour afterwards; the site was destroyed in the resultant fires. While Israel did not claim responsibility for the strike, it comes against the backdrop of increasing tensions between Israel, LH and Iran following targeted killings in Beirut (Lebanon) and Tehran. Amid these growing tensions, Israel is likely to increase its efforts to prevent Iranian weapons transfers to LH. We assess that these will sustain elevated bystander risks in the coming week around weapons depots, military bases, airports, airbases and vehicles in Syria, particularly in border regions.
- Yemen: Close proximity attack on oil tanker underscores risk to commercial shipping. On 8 August, a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) and a missile exploded in close proximity to the Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker Delta Blue in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait in two separate attacks. While no group claimed the attacks, we assess that the Iran-backed Houthis are likely responsible. The attacks underscore the sustained elevated risks facing commercial shipping in the region. Other vessels are likely to experience similar attacks in the coming weeks, elevating the threat of surface-level and critical damage to ships and driving physical harm risks for crewmembers. Close proximity attacks reflect the elevated risks of commercial vessels being boarded, driving kidnap-for-ransom (KFR) and physical security risks for crewmembers, as well as broader operational and financial risks for businesses due to delays and possibly stolen or damaged cargo.
Aug 08.
KEY POINTS
- A Lebanese Hizballah (LH) drone attack in northern Israel and a failed Iron Dome interception attempt injured 19 individuals, prompting no significant escalation despite elevated tensions.
- Hamas selected Yahia Sinwar to replace Ismail Haniyeh as head of its political bureau, consolidating his leadership of Hamas within Gaza and beyond; this will likely challenge ceasefire negotiations and elevate risks of increased Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operations in Gaza.
- The IDF increased its forces in northern West Bank following a warning from the intelligence organisation Shin Bet detailing intentions from Palestinian militants to perform incursion attacks on Israeli population centres bordering the West Bank.
- Gaza Strip: IDF evacuation orders in northern Gaza following rocket launches targeting southern Israel highlight mounting efforts to counteract persistent militant presence. On 6 and 7 August, the IDF ordered the evacuation of parts of the north-eastern Gaza Strip, including Beit Hanoun (North Gaza governorate). The orders come against the backdrop of a slight uptick in cross-border rocket launches by Gaza-based militants in the past week, with rockets triggering sirens in Ashkelon and Sderot (both Southern district) on 6 August. Additionally, on 7 August, the IDF announced that it opened a safe passage on the Salah al-Din Road from Beit Hanoun to Deir al-Balah and Az-Zawayda areas in central Gaza. The orders and rocket launches from northern Gaza highlight mounting IDF efforts to respond to the enduring presence of militants in northern Gaza. This will elevate the likelihood of an IDF operation in the area in the coming days, sustaining elevated security and bystander risks.
- West Bank: The IDF increased its military presence and operations in the northern West Bank following an uptick in militant activity and warnings from Shin Bet that militants intend to infiltrate Israel. In the past week, the IDF has bolstered its forces in the northern West Bank following Shin Bet warnings about the intentions of Palestinian militants to infiltrate Israeli population centres bordering the West Bank. On 5-6 August, the IDF conducted operations in the northern West Bank, including Jenin city (Jenin governorate) and Tubas governorate, clashing with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas militants. On 6 August, a Palestinian resident of the Bethlehem area stabbed a border police officer in the Tunnel Checkpoint on Highway 60, south of Jerusalem, lightly injuring her. On 7 August, the IDF foiled an attempted small arms attack on the Bekaot Israeli settlement (Tubas governorate), engaging with PIJ militants in the area. The incidents highlight heightened ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank, increasing risks of radicalisation among the local population. Furthermore, the increased activity of West Bank militants following Israel’s alleged attack in Iran, in the capital Tehran, and the strike in Beirut, reflects elevated attack risks in the West Bank and Israel, particularly the Jerusalem area and population centres bordering the West Bank.
- Israel-Lebanon: A Lebanese Hizballah (LH) drone strike and failed interception in northern Israel injured 19 Israelis, sustaining elevated tensions ahead of almost certain LH retaliation. Cross-border hostilities between Israel and LH continue in line with previously established levels of engagement, with LH moderately intensifying strikes in response to targeted IDF strikes on LH commanders in southern Lebanon. On 6 August, an LH drone struck the IDF Shraga Camp, south of Nahariya (Northern district), lightly injuring six IDF personnel. The strike came amid a swarm of drones targeting the base and falling in the Nahariya area. In a rare incident, an Iron Dome interceptor failed to intercept one of the drones, instead hitting Highway 4 south of Nahariya and injuring several civilians. The drone swarm attack and interceptor injured a total of 19 individuals. LH claimed the swarm attack was a response to the killing of a commander of LH’s elite Radwan Force in southern Lebanon on 5 August. The Iron Dome interception success rate is between 85-95%. However, in recent months, LH drones have proven to be a greater challenge for both the Iron Dome and broader Israeli air defences to identify and interdict. These challenges will elevate security risks in northern Israel, particularly ahead of an almost certain LH retaliation on the Israeli strike in the capital Beirut last week.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Hamas selected Yahia Sinwar to head its political bureau following the assassination of former political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh, further undermining prospects for a ceasefire agreement with Israel. On 6 August, Hamas named Yahia Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in Gaza, as the new head of its political bureau. The move will likely consolidate Sinwar’s influence over Hamas’ military and political operations both within and beyond Gaza. Sinwar’s selection highlights a relative hardening of Hamas’ position vis-à-vis ceasefire negotiations, significantly undermining prospects for an agreement in the short term (see Sibylline Alert – 31 July 2024). Although Hamas confirmed that Khalil al-Hayya will continue to lead negotiations with Israel, Sinwar’s elevated role in Hamas’ political wing will likely undermine productive engagement in ceasefire negotiations. As such, IDF operations in Gaza are highly likely to continue in the short term, sustaining significant security risks in the enclave and driving protest activity within Israel.
- On 8 August, World Central Kitchen announced the death of a staff member in Gaza, highlighting significant threats to personnel. The food aid NGO announced the staff member had been killed while off duty in the Deir al Balah area; World Central Kitchen has not revealed the cause of death. The IDF has stated that it was not responsible for the staffer’s death; at the time of reporting, Hamas officials have not commented on the claim. Regardless of whether the Israeli security forces, Palestinian militants or organised criminal elements killed the staff member, their death highlights critical threats to life for civilians and NGO employees in the Gaza Strip.
- Elevated tensions between Israel and Norway will increase the risk of delays and changes to financial transfers made to the Palestinian Authority, increasing risks of unrest in the West Bank. On 7 August, Israeli media reported that Israel is engaging in negotiations with Switzerland to replace Norway as the intermediary for funds transferred to the Palestinian Authority (PA) earmarked to pay the salaries of civil servants in Gaza. While neither the Israeli nor Norwegian governments have commented on the matter, earlier on 8 August, Israel announced it would revoke the diplomatic accreditation and visas of eight Norwegian diplomats based in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district) who deal directly with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Israeli Foreign Ministry cited Norway’s ‘anti-Israel conduct’ as justification. The revocation likely precipitates further delays or changes to the structure of Israel’s financial transfers to the PA in the coming weeks. Such changes will elevate the risks of financial insolvency for the PA, increasing risks of protests, strikes and domestic unrest in the West Bank.
- Airspace restrictions and flight suspensions linked to elevated regional tensions continue to undermine operational and supply chain continuity. On 7 August, states including Egypt and the UK issued an advisory to airlines asking them to temporarily avoid Lebanese airspace. The advisory comes as numerous carriers revised flight schedules to avoid journeys via airspace most exposed to potential regional escalation. Earlier on 8 August, Australia’s Qantas Airways suspended its flights over Iranian and Iraqi airspace following a similar decision by Germany’s Lufthansa AG on 5 August. Over the coming days, states will highly likely continue issuing similar advisories, with numerous airlines likely rerouting flights and extending suspensions of flights to Israel and Lebanon (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 5 August 2024). Increased fuel consumption and stop-over costs at intermediary airports will likely increase operational costs for airlines, which will likely be passed on to passengers and cargo. Delays and further flight suspensions are also highly likely as regional tensions remain elevated, decreasing the availability of commercial routes. Restrictions to airline freight services will also increase threats to regional supply chain continuity in the short term.
- Following two consecutive days of anti-conscription protests, dozens of ultra-Orthodox demonstrators broke into a recruitment centre in Tel Aviv, highlighting elevated collateral risks. On 6 August, dozens of protesters broke into the Tel Hashomer army base (Tel Aviv district), entering an auxiliary building within the compound. The break-in highlights elevated risks of targeted protests and unrest as the IDF continues efforts to broaden recruitment within the ultra-Orthodox community. Continued conscription efforts will almost certainly trigger additional protests, particularly targeting recruitment centres in the Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district) areas. Also on 7 August, IDF officials announced that approximately 5% of ultra-Orthodox men issued with conscription notices had complied with orders to present themselves for preliminary processing. Continued non-compliance with conscription notices will increase the likelihood of IDF personnel attempting to enforce draft notices and detain individuals violating them. Such efforts will significantly elevate risks of protests and unrest targeting IDF recruitment centres, with protesters likely engaging in altercations with security forces and acts of vandalism in proximity to protest targets. Localised travel disruption and collateral risks will remain elevated over the coming weeks, particularly in ultra-Orthodox population centres such as Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv district), Beit Shemesh and Jerusalem (both Jerusalem district). Broader anti-conscription protests will also likely continue, with demonstrators likely targeting key intersections on Highways 1 and 4, elevating risks of supply chain disruption.
- Region: Flight diversions will elevate operational risks, drive travel disruption in Middle East. On 7 August, the UK issued an advisory to its airlines asking them to avoid Lebanese airspace after Egypt issued a similar warning to avoid Iranian airspace between 0430hrs and 0730hrs local time earlier on 8 August. This comes as many carriers revise their flight schedules to avoid journeys over countries most exposed to regional escalation. Australia’s Qantas Airways suspended its flights over Iranian and Iraqi airspace earlier on 8 August following a similar decision by Germany’s Lufthansa AG on 5 August. It is highly likely that other countries will issue similar advisories and more airlines will reroute flights around regional airspace in the coming days, elevating operational costs for businesses resulting from increased fuel consumption and stop-over costs at intermediary airports. Delays are likely for both passenger and cargo flights over the region, driving supply chain and travel disruption. We assess that further airspace restrictions will likely reduce the viability of evacuation from conflict zones via commercial airliners, elevating safety risks to those attempting to leave the region.
Aug 07.
- Israel-Palestinian Territories: Naming of new Hamas leader will likely impede ceasefire talks. On 6 August, Hamas named Yahia Sinwar, the leader of the organisation in Gaza, as the new head of its political bureau, replacing Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated on 31 July. The move will consolidate the group’s military and political wing in and outside of Gaza under Sinwar’s control. Furthermore, choosing Sinwar signals a hardline response from Hamas to Haniyeh’s assassination, likely triggering significant challenges to any ceasefire talks in the coming weeks. Choosing Sinwar is unlikely to prompt a major change in the intensity or strategy of the group’s operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza, as Hamas’ military capacities in the enclave are now significantly depleted. However, there is a realistic possibility Hamas will seek to further boost its military presence in the West Bank and sponsor more attacks against the IDF and settlers. We assess that there is a realistic possibility the group will attempt to increase operations inside Israel, augmenting attack risks.
- Israel-Turkey: Intervention in genocide case will elevate diplomatic tensions, sustain economic risks. On 5 August, Foreign Minister Hakan announced that Turkey will join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) with Turkey due to formally submit its declaration of intervention on 7 August. The relationship between Israel and Turkey has significantly deteriorated since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, with Turkey suspending trade between the countries in May. Turkey’s involvement in the ICJ case will likely lead to further diplomatic deterioration, elevating the risk of embassy activities being curtailed in both countries and reducing expatriate access to consular support in emergency cases. With trade already suspended, this intervention will likely sustain economic risks to a wide range of industries including automotive production and polymer manufacturing. We assess that the authorities will likely crack down on businesses which use intermediary ports to transfer goods, elevating operational hazards and driving compliance and regulatory risks.
Aug 05.
KEY POINTS
- Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations in the northern West Bank and the stabbing of Israeli civilians in central Israel highlight increasing radicalisation in the area and mounting spillover into Israel.
- An uptick in rocket launches by Gaza-based militants into southern and central Israel reflects persistent security risks across Israel and will likely drive further IDF operations in Khan Yunis.
- Israel-Iran-Lebanese Hizballah (LH) tensions elevate risks of IDF strikes in Syria, particularly in border areas and around airports.
- Gaza Strip: Slight uptick in rocket launches by Gaza militants targeting the Gaza Envelope (Southern district) and central Israel, highlighting sustained security risks across Israel. On 5 August, Gazan militants launched 15 rockets from the Khan Yunis area, towards Eshkol Regional Council, including Reim (Southern district). Additionally, on 4 August, rockets launched from Gaza, including from the Khan Yunis area, triggered sirens at Gan Yavne (Central district). The rocket launches reflect a slight increase since the alleged Israeli assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital Tehran last week (see Sibylline Alert – Iran-Palestinian Territories – 31 August 2024). Throughout the week, Gaza militants will likely sustain sporadic rocket launches against the Gaza Envelope and the wider Southern district, as well as possibly targeting areas in the south of the Central district. These will elevate security and bystander risks in these areas. Additionally, a continued uptick of rocket fire will increase the likelihood of the IDF initiating new operations against launch sites, including airstrikes, particularly in Khan Yunis, elevating security risks in the area in the coming days.
- West Bank: Two IDF drone strikes in the northern West Bank reflect increased operational tempo in response to mounting militant threat, likely to continue throughout the week. On 3 August, the IDF conducted two separate drone strikes in Tulkarm governorate. In the first strike, the IDF claimed to have killed five gunmen attempting to launch a terror attack, including a commander of Hamas’ local wing in Tulkarm. Subsequently, a second drone strike was launched against four gunmen who opened fire on IDF troops during a raid on Tulkarm (Tulkarm governorate). The operations reflect elevated militant activity in the northern West Bank and rising attack risks in the area. The uptick in clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants is likely to continue in the coming week, driving security and bystander risks in the West Bank, as well as attack risks in the area and East Jerusalem.
- Israel: A lone perpetrator stabbing attack killed two Israeli civilians and injured two others in central Israel, highlighting elevated attack risks across Israel emanating from radicalisation. On 4 August, a Palestinian resident of Salfit (Salfit governorate, West Bank) stabbed four Israeli civilians in the city of Holon (Tel Aviv district). The assailant did not belong to any terrorist organisation and was shot and killed by a police officer in the area. The attack reflects increased risks against civilians in Israel emanating from rising rates of radicalisation, which will likely persist over the coming weeks.
- Israel-Lebanon: The resumption of Lebanese Hizballah (LH) cross-border fire and IDF-targeted strikes does not indicate a return to the status quo amid elevated tensions over the assassination. On 2 August, tit-for-tat hostilities resumed in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, in line with previously observed levels. LH continue to slightly intensify its cross-border rocket barrages in response to targeted Israeli strikes against LH operatives, but these upticks are short-term and strikes remain close to the Israel-Lebanon border. The current resumption of hostilities likely does not reflect the full extent of LH’s response to the killing of Fuad Shukr in Beirut on 30 July. LH is almost certainly planning retaliatory action to this killing, sustaining significantly elevated security and bystander risks in northern Israel amid heightened tensions.
- Syria: Israeli strikes on airports and roads connecting to Lebanon highlight elevated security risks. On 2 August, Israel allegedly conducted airstrikes targeting Dabaa Military Airport in Syria’s Homs governorate. Additionally, on 3 August, the IDF allegedly struck a truck west of Al-Qusayr (Homs), likely carrying a weapon shipment to Lebanon. The rate of IDF strikes likely reflects a response to elevated Iranian efforts to smuggle weapons from Syria into Lebanon. These will sustain elevated security and bystander risks in Lebanon-Syria border areas as well as around airports and seaports in Syria in the coming week.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- On 3 August, Hamas announced it had begun the selection process to replace political chief Ismail Haniyeh, highlighting likely delays to ceasefire negotiations. Hamas’ Shura Council subsequently began high-level meetings on 4 August. Haniyeh’s most likely successors are either Khaled Mashaal, who founded and led the group’s political wing from 1996 to 2017, or Khalil al-Hayya, a deputy within Hamas’ regional political wing with strong links to Iran. Reports indicate that Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, favours al-Hayya, while other key Shura Council members prefer Mashaal, increasing risks of factional splits. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on 2 August that Israel would send a delegation to renewed ceasefire and hostage release negotiations, talks are highly unlikely to proceed before the Shura Council appoints Haniyeh’s successor. Factionalism within the council will likely prolong the selection process, delaying engagement in ceasefire negotiations and further decreasing the likelihood of an agreement being reached in the coming weeks.
- Anti-government protests in Israel continue at pace, though a moderate uptick in clashes with police highlights moderately heightened unrest risks amid elevated anti-government sentiment. On 1 August, protests marking 300 days since the 7 October attacks took place in numerous urban centres throughout Israel. Thousands of demonstrators calling for the government to secure hostage releases gathered in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district) on 1 August, primarily in the Hostages Square area. Hundreds also gathered in Jerusalem (Jerusalem district), marching from The First Station complex to the Great Synagogue. Small-scale demonstrations also occurred in Beersheba (Southern district) and Herzliya (Tel Aviv district), highlighting persistent risks of travel disruption during elevated protest activity. On 3 August, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv to participate in the weekly hostage release protests, primarily gathering in the Begin Street and Kaplan Street areas. Demonstrators engaged in low-intensity clashes with mounted police units, highlighting increasing risks of violence as the ceasefire and hostage release negotiations continue to stall. Demonstrators also targeted the official and private residences of several government figures, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Shas party leader Aryeh Deri (both in Jerusalem), as well as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s residence in Amikam (Haifa district), underscoring a moderate proliferation of protest activity. Demonstrations also temporarily restricted movement through the Amiad junction on Highway 90 (Northern district), however, concerns linked to a potential escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border broadly decreased protest activity in northern Israel.
- In Israel, the frequency of anti-conscription protests moderately increased, elevating risks of localised travel disruption and broader threats to supply chain continuity. On 1 August, dozens of ultra-Orthodox protesters blocked the Aluf Sadeh intersection on Highway 4 during an anti-conscription protest near Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv district). Subsequently, on 5 August, hundreds of anti-conscription protesters gathered outside a military recruitment office in Tel Hashomer (Tel Aviv district). Several protestors clashed with police, resulting in at least three arrests. The demonstration highlights the elevated risks of protests targeting recruitment offices as the IDF continues issuing conscription notices, increasing risks of localised travel disruption. Broader anti-conscription protests are also highly likely to continue, primarily in ultra-Orthodox population centres such as Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv), Beit Shemesh and Jerusalem (both Jerusalem). Demonstrators are also highly likely to engage in low-intensity clashes with police, moderately elevating security and bystander risks in affected areas. Additionally, protesters are highly likely to target key intersections on Highways 1 and 4, elevating the risk of disruption to overland movement and supply chain continuity in central Israel.
- Elevated regional tensions continue to impact investor confidence, particularly in Israel, sustaining broader economic concerns. On 4 August, shares on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange fell substantially, with the market’s benchmark TA-125 falling by 2.3%. Also on 4 August, the value of the Shekel (NIS) against the dollar (USD) fell for a sixth consecutive day, trading at its weakest value since November. In the coming days, concerns over risks of an armed escalation between Israel, Iran and Lebanese Hizballah, are highly likely to continue undermining investor confidence in the Israeli market, depressing stock prices. Furthermore, a weakening NIS will also drive operational costs for firms with operations in Israel, particularly those relying on imported goods.
- Amid elevated regional tensions and concerns over potential conflict escalation, numerous flight operators have suspended services to Israel and Lebanon, increasing risks of travel disruption. Since 1 August, states including Australia, France, Japan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UK and the US have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible. On 3 August, Sweden announced the temporary closure of its embassy in the capital Beirut. On 4 August, the UK withdrew the family members of all embassy staff due to concerns about an escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border. Similarly, Canada and Ireland have advised against all travel to Israel, while numerous airlines have temporarily suspended services to Israel and Lebanon. Most significantly, on 2 August, KLM announced the cancellation of all flights to and from Israel until at least 26 October. Over the coming days, adherence to travel advice will likely increase pressure on reduced airline services, elevating risks of travel delays, particularly from Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY). Although embassies in Lebanon will likely continue operating core functions over the coming days, there is a realistic possibility of further closures temporarily restricting access to embassy services, particularly in the event of an escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border.
- A review of the Ministry of Defense spending will likely elevate tensions within Israel’s coalition government. On 5 August, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the formation of a committee to review the Ministry of Defense’s spending. While significant cuts to military spending remain highly unlikely as the IDF remains engaged in Gaza and on the Israel-Lebanon border, Smotrich will likely leverage his position in the Finance Ministry to gain broader concessions in the government’s settlement policies in the West Bank. Smotrich will likely lobby for increased settlement funding and expansion, exacerbating ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank and increasing risks of violence between Israeli settlers and Palestinians. Efforts to expand settlements and legalise outposts are also highly likely to increase reputational risks for firms with operations in Israel, while sustaining risks of further sanctions targeting settlers and settlements in the long term, particularly from the EU, UK and US. Elevated intra-coalition tensions will also increase risks of policy stasis in the short term, particularly during the Knesset’s summer recess (28 July to 27 October). (Source: Sibylline)
07 Aug 24. More than 1,000 UK troops on standby to evacuate Britons from Lebanon. More than 1,000 British military personnel have been put on standby to assist with an evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon.
It comes as fears continue to grow that the Israel-Gaza war could escalate into a wider regional conflict.
Hundreds of troops have already been sent to Cyprus, where the UK has military bases, with hundreds more on notice in the UK.
RAF helicopters are already on standby in the region, while Type 45 destroyer HMS Duncan and amphibious ship RFA Cardigan Bay are in the eastern Mediterranean to support allies with humanitarian requirements.
The Foreign Office has been renewing calls for British citizens to leave Lebanon.
The department confirmed on Saturday that military personnel had begun deploying to the region to provide embassies with operational support to help British nationals – however, the number of troops was not mentioned.
Consular officials and Border Force personnel have also been deployed.
An estimated 16,000 British people live in Lebanon.
Evacuating UK nationals to Cyprus via a seabridge in an Operation Highbrow-style mission is thought to be among the solutions, if war begins, the PA news agency reports. Operation Highbrow saw 4,500 British nationals evacuated from Lebanon using warships during the 2006 Lebanon War. (Source: forces.net)
07 Aug 24. US deploys Raptors to deter Iranian strike on Israel. The US Air Force (USAF) has deployed 12 Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft as part of a wider build up of forces geared at deterring and/or countering an anticipated Iranian strike against Israel.
The ‘fifth-generation’ low observable (LO) jets were recorded arriving from their home station of Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska into the US base of Royal Air Force (RAF) Lakenheath in England on 6 August, before being forward deployed to an undisclosed location in the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.
The deployment of the USAF’s premier air-to-air fighter came days after the US Department of Defense (DoD) said on 2 August that it would send an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East as the Biden administration beefs up its military presence in the region. This followed the Islamic Republic of Iran threatening retaliatory action against Israel after the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran.
The F-22 is an air-dominance platform that is arguably without equal in terms of its LO and air-combat capabilities. For the air-to-air role, the aircraft’s internal weapons bays can carry six RTX Raytheon AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) and two RTX Raytheon AIM-9 Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missiles, plus it is equipped with an M61A2 20mm internal Gatling gun with 480 rounds. (Source: Janes)
05 Aug 24. Iran to conduct ‘quadrilateral operation’ on Israel.
Blinken told the G7 that Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel, expected across four fronts, could come in the next 24 hours.
Iran is likely to launch a large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel across four fronts in response to Israel killing Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, according to conflict analysts and Iranian state media.
Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance’ could strike as soon as today (5 August), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reportedly told G7 members.
Tehran will coordinate Lebanese political militia Hezbollah, the armed Yemeni Houthi group, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and Iranian forces conducting simultaneous strikes in a ‘quadrilateral operation’ on Israel, Iran’s state media reported yesterday (4 August).
Hezbollah wants revenge for Israel killing top military commander Fuad Shukur in an airstrike in southern Beirut last week, while the Houthis seek to retaliate for an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike which killed Houthi military personnel in al Hudaydah, Yemen, on 20 July.
On the fourth front, leader of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Akram al Kaabi, published an image yesterday (4 August) on Telegram indicating his intent to attack Israel.
Nasser Kanaani, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said today (5 August) that Tehran was not seeking a wider conflict in the region, but that “punishing Israel is necessary”.
How will this Iranian attack differ from the last?
Overarchingly, this attack will involve a larger number of launch and target locations, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
When Iran attacked Israel for the first time on 13 April, the 170 one-way attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles Tehran launched came from within Iranian territory, giving the US and Israeli forces significantly more time to intercept them.
Projectiles fired from Lebanon, Yemen or Iraq would be far trickier for even Israel’s renowned ‘Iron Dome’ defence system to intercept. This would also allow Iran to hit a greater number of targets across Israel.
The ISW also said Iran “could order simultaneous attacks on US forces, especially in eastern Syria”.
Likely to come from Iranian-backed militia, attacks on strategic US positions in Syria could divert the US’ attention and resources away from intercepting Israel-bound missiles.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant yesterday (4 August) to discuss Israel’s defensive preparation, but Blinken has admitted the US is unclear what form Iran’s retaliation will take.
Iran’s window to attack Israel without serious US involvement shrinks as Washington moves military assets to the Middle East. The US has deployed naval cruisers and destroyers, a carrier strike group and a squadron of fighter jets to the region amid escalating tensions.
Criticism over US support for Israel grows stronger as Gallant, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet continue their offensive in Gaza, where more than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed.
Yesterday (4 August), an IDF airstrike hit two schools and a hospital complex in Gaza on Sunday, killing at least 30 people.
War with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas has become a political lifeline for Netanyahu, whose popularity is at an all-time low. The end of the multifront Middle East conflict would likely collapse his far-right coalition government and trigger early elections in Israel, currently set for 2026. A tragic, drawn-out conflict looks poised to spill across borders. (Source: army-technology.com)
05 Aug 24. UK and US military capability close to Lebanon – what we know about it so far. The UK Government has called for all British nationals to leave Lebanon as tensions in the Middle East grow.
As a result, the UK is in the process of deploying military personnel to the region and the US has equally bolstered its armed forces capabilities in the area.
But what do we know about the situation right now?
We know that the UK will send military personnel to the region in order to help the embassies support British nationals.
The UK already has RFA Cardigan Bay in the Eastern Mediterranean, supporting allies’ humanitarian needs.
The RFA ship was being used as accommodation for US troops operating from the Gaza aid pier, which has now been closed.
Cardigan Bay can accommodate 350 troops but can be overloaded to 700 for brief periods, and carries a large landing craft.
HMS Duncan is also in the Eastern Mediterranean region.
HMS Duncan has worked alongside America’s USS Eisenhower and the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group (ARG).
Despite USS Eisenhower’s return to the US, HMS Duncan’s presence can provide additional air defence back-up to the Wasp ARG.
The USS Wasp ARG includes the USS New York and USS Oak Hill which, between them, has more than 2,000 Marines from the US Marine Corps 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU).
In total, sailors and marines in the ARG stand at 4,200.
This is not all the support the US is offering in the region, with Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin ordering the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group.
However, on 4 August, USS Abraham Lincoln tweeted to say she was in Guam, so realistically still roughly 10-14 days from the Arabian Sea region.
Mr Austin also ordered more vessels capable of defending against ballistic missile attacks to both the US European Command and US Central Command regions.
Finally, the Pentagon said it was taking extra steps to increase the US’ readiness in deploying additional land-based ballistic missile defence and Mr Austin had ordered an additional fighter Squadron to head to the Middle East.
It is not the first time the UK has evacuated nationals from Lebanon.
In 2006, a number of British nationals were evacuated from the main port area in the capital of Beirut by UK amphibious warships and destroyers.
The mission, called Operation Highbrow, saw some people evacuated to Cyprus in Chinook helicopters, with warships effectively providing a shuttle service between Beirut and Cyprus.
An aircraft carrier was also used as a forward operating base for the Chinooks. (Source: forces.net)
05 Aug 24. U.S. Posturing Assets to Defend Israel, U.S. Forces in Middle East. The Defense Department continues to move vessels and aircraft across the Middle East to improve U.S. force protection, increase the defense of Israel and ensure the United States can respond to a range of contingencies, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh at a press briefing today.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group will replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which is in the U.S. Central Command region, said a DOD press release on Aug. 2.
According to the statement, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and Centcom regions. He also ordered deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East to bolster defensive air support capability.
“These posture adjustments add to the broad range of capabilities the U.S. military maintains in the region, including the USS Wasp amphibious ready group/Marine expeditionary unit operating in the eastern Mediterranean,” the statement said.
Austin spoke yesterday with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to reiterate that the U.S. has ironclad support for Israel’s security and right to self-defense against threats from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, Houthis and other Iranian-backed terrorist groups, Singh said.
“They discussed U.S. force posture moves that the department is taking for defense and deterrence and reinforced the need to de-escalate broader tensions in the region, to include strong support for a Gaza cease-fire and hostage-release deal,” Singh said.
Elsewhere, DOD and the Ministry of National Defense of Niger announced earlier today that the withdrawal of U.S. forces and assets from Air Base 201 in Agadez is complete, she said.
This effort began on May 19 following the mutual establishment of withdrawal conditions. Coordination will continue between U.S. and Nigerien armed forces over the coming weeks to ensure the full withdrawal is complete as planned, she said.
“U.S. forces are still on track to meet the Sept. 15 deadline of a full withdrawal from Niger,” she said, noting that there are less than 24 U.S. military personnel still in the country.
Separately, Singh noted that on Aug. 2, Austin signed a memo reserving for himself the authority to enter into pretrial agreements with those accused in the 9/11 military commission cases.
As the superior convening authority, the secretary last week withdrew from the pretrial agreements that were signed in those cases, she noted. (Source: U.S. DoD)
05 Aug 24. US steps up ballistic missile defence and fighter support in Middle East. Escalating tensions in the Middle East prompt US posture to expand ballistic missile defence and another fighter squadron. Simultaneously, the Department of Defense reiterated its commitment to “de-escalating tensions in the region and pushing for a ceasefire as part of a hostage deal to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza” that has spiralled since the Palestinian and Iranian-backed militant group, Hamas, attacked Israel on 7 October 2023.
Another level of ballistic missile defence (BMD) at sea and land will bolster existing US capabilities deployed to protect Israel in its ongoing tit-for-tat missile exchange with Iran and its proxies. In addition, the US will also mobilise another fighter squadron – reinforcing their defensive air support capability.
No specific details have been released in relation to these latest deployments.
This new level of support was first devised in a call between the US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 1 August.
Tit-for-tat
These air defence measures have been deployed in the event of another potential missile exchange, much like the Iranian standoff attack against Israel in April – made up of a salvo of missiles and one-way-attack uncrewed aerial systems – which Israeli interception largely prevented.
The vast missile and projectile stocks of the Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah, which is in close proximity to the north of Israel, presents a greater combined challenge alongside Iranian salvos to the US and Israeli interception rate.
Prior to these recent defensive measures, the Israeli government had sanctioned the assassination of a leading figure of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow in Middle East security at the British think tank, the Royal United Services Institute, commented on the likely consequences of the attack.
“While it is not the first targeted assassination against a high-level figure within the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance,’ at this juncture of intense tit-for-tat and a high stakes geopolitical conflict, it will have ripple effects across the region.
“This calls into question what a coordinated response to Iranian retaliation—as seen in April to support Israel—may look like among regional states.”
Scope of US posture in the Middle East
The exact number of additional BMD-capable destroyers, cruisers and land systems to be deployed remains undisclosed.
However, the US Navy’s USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group (CSG) is set to replace the USS Theodore Roosvelt CSG, which has been operating in US Central Command since 12 July.
Also known as ‘CSG 3’, the group comprises the flagship USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), Carrier Air Wing 9, guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay (CG 53) and more guided-missile destroyers within the Destroyer Squadron 21 – which includes six warships.
Notably, there are several more warships in CSG 3 than in the Theodore Roosevelt CSG, which consists only of three vessels: the Nimitz-class carrier flagship, Carrier Air Wing 11 and an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, USS Daniel Inouye (DDG 118).
These posture adjustments add to the broad range of capabilities the US military maintains in the region, including the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The group first entered the Mediterranean Sea, passing throught the Strait of Gibralter, on 26 June.
It consists of the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp (LHD 1), San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS New York (LPD 21), Harpers Ferry class dock landing ship USS Oak Hill (LSD 51), and embarked 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit. (Source: army-technology.com)
02 Aug 24. Mossad Covertly Planted Bomb in IRGC Guesthouse Months in Advance to Kill Hamas Leader. Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent political leader of Hamas, was assassinated on Wednesday in Tehran by an explosive device covertly planted in the guesthouse where he was staying. The operation has been attributed to the Israeli Mossad. Seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and one American official have confirmed the details of the assassination.
The explosive device was hidden approximately two months ago in the high-security guesthouse run by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the upscale Neshat compound. Haniyeh was in Tehran for the presidential inauguration and had used this guesthouse multiple times during his visits. The bomb was remotely detonated once Haniyeh was confirmed to be inside his room, killing him and a bodyguard, causing substantial damage to the building.
The successful placement and detonation of the bomb highlight a deep penetration of Israeli intelligence within Iran and underscore vulnerabilities in the Iranian security apparatus. Israeli officials have briefed the United States and other Western governments on the details, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement publicly. Iranian and Hamas officials have blamed Israel for the assassination, a view supported by several U.S. officials. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
02 Aug 24. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh provided the following readout: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant this morning about the destabilizing threats posed by Iran, its partners, and proxies. The Secretary reiterated ironclad U.S. support for Israel’s security and informed the Minister of additional measures, to include ongoing and future defensive force posture changes, that the Department will take to support the defense of Israel. Secretary Austin highlighted that further escalation is not inevitable and that all countries in the region would benefit from a de-escalation in tensions, including through completing a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. However, he also stressed that the unprecedented scale of U.S. support for Israel since October 7 should leave Iran, Lebanese Hizballah, and other Iranian-backed terrorist groups with no doubt about U.S. resolve. (Source: U.S. DoD)
02 Aug 24. U.S. Will Send More Defensive Military Capabilities to Middle East. More defensive military capabilities will deploy to the Middle East to bolster force protection for U.S. troops in the region and to defend Israel, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh today.
The deployment will be in response to threats from Iran and Iranian-backed militias, Singh said.
Following the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023, the United States pledged to help defend the nation. In April, when Iran and Iranian-backed groups launched strikes at Israel, the United States led a coalition that helped defend the country from armed drones and missiles.
Singh said the commitment for more defense capabilities in the region comes from conversations last night between President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This morning, Secretary of the Defense Lloyd J. Austin III followed up on those conversations with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, she said.
“We’ve demonstrated since October and again in April the United States’s global defense is dynamic, and the department retains the capability to deploy on short notice to meet evolving national security threats,” she said. “As a result, the secretary will be directing multiple, forthcoming force-posture moves to bolster force protection for U.S. forces regionwide, to provide elevated support to the defense of Israel and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to this evolving crisis.”
What forces and/or units will deploy remains to be determined. Singh said the United States already has robust defensive capabilities in the region, and those forces may be redeployed within theater. White House officials said, however, that there will be “new” capabilities for the region.
Biden and Austin have been in close coordination on this effort, Singh said. “The secretary will be directing forthcoming force-posture moves to bolster our force protection,” she said.
Singh stressed any capabilities will be purely defensive and will “send a message of deterrence.”
The United States will continue to work with allies and partners to de-escalate the situation in the region. Allies and partners helped defeat the attacks in April, and a number of countries participate in Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea to keep that vital sea line of communication open, she said.
The defensive capabilities are all in support of deterrence and de-escalation, Singh said. “We’re going to continue to urge for de-escalation, and the best way for that to happen is for this ceasefire deal to come through, so we can get American hostages out, as well,” she said. “We believe that that would be the best way to de-escalate and further lower tensions in the region.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
02 Aug 24. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh Statement on Force Posture in the Middle East. The Department of Defense continues to take steps to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies. Since the horrific Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, the Secretary of Defense has reiterated that the United States will protect our personnel and interests in the region, including our ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel.
To that end, Secretary Austin has ordered adjustments to U.S. military posture designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies.
To maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, the Secretary has ordered the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group to replace the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group, currently on deployment in the Central Command area of responsibility.
Additionally, Secretary Austin has ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and U.S. Central Command regions. The Department is also taking steps to increase our readiness to deploy additional land-based ballistic missile defense.
The Secretary has also ordered the deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, reinforcing our defensive air support capability.
These posture adjustments add to the broad range of capabilities the U.S. military maintains in the region, including the USS WASP Amphibious Ready Group / Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG/MEU) operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.
As we have demonstrated since October and again in April, the United States’ global defense is dynamic and the Department of Defense retains the capability to deploy on short notice to meet evolving national security threats. The United States also remains intently focused on de-escalating tensions in the region and pushing for a ceasefire as part of a hostage deal to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza. (Source: U.S. DoD)
02 Aug 24. U.S. to send more warships, fighter jets to Middle East to bolster defenses. The U.S. military will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Friday, as Washington seeks to bolster defenses following threats from Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah.
The U.S. is bracing for Iran to make good on its vow to respond to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh two days ago in Tehran – one in a series of killings of senior figures in the Palestinian militant group as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza rages.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had approved sending additional Navy cruisers and destroyers– which can shoot down ballistic missiles– to the Middle East and Europe.
It is also sending an additional squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East.
“Austin has ordered adjustments to U.S. military posture designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
There had been speculation that the Pentagon might not replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group in the Middle East once it completed its ongoing deployment. But Austin decided to rotate in the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier strike group to replace it.
The Pentagon statement added it would increase readiness to deploy more land-based ballistic missile defenses.
The U.S. military also intensified deployments prior to April 13, when Iran launched an attack on Israeli territory with drones and missiles. Still, the threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon could present unique challenges to any efforts by the United States to intercept drones and missiles given the group’s vast arsenal and immediate proximity to Israel.
At the time, Israel successfully knocked down almost all of the roughly 300 drones and missiles with the help of the United States and other allies.
Biden, in a phone call on Thursday with Netanyahu, discussed new U.S. defensive military deployments to support Israel against threats such as missiles and drones, the White House said.
Iran and Hamas have both accused Israel of carrying out the killing and have pledged to retaliate against their foe. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the death nor denied it.
Haniyeh’s death was one in a series of killings of senior Hamas figures as the war in Gaza between Hamas and Israel nears its 11th month and concern grows that the conflict is spreading across the Middle East.
Earlier, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said the U.S. did not believe escalation was inevitable.
“I think we are being very direct in our messaging that certainly we don’t want to see heightened tensions and we do believe there is an off ramp here and that is that ceasefire deal,” Singh said.
An Israeli delegation will travel to Cairo in coming days for negotiations to reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Friday. (Source: Reuters)
07 Aug 24. Israel-Palestinian Territories: Naming of new Hamas leader will likely impede ceasefire talks. On 6 August, Hamas named Yahia Sinwar, the leader of the organisation in Gaza, as the new head of its political bureau, replacing Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated on 31 July. The move will consolidate the group’s military and political wing in and outside of Gaza under Sinwar’s control. Furthermore, choosing Sinwar signals a hardline response from Hamas to Haniyeh’s assassination, likely triggering significant challenges to any ceasefire talks in the coming weeks. Choosing Sinwar is unlikely to prompt a major change in the intensity or strategy of the group’s operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza, as Hamas’ military capacities in the enclave are now significantly depleted. However, there is a realistic possibility Hamas will seek to further boost its military presence in the West Bank and sponsor more attacks against the IDF and settlers. We assess that there is a realistic possibility the group will attempt to increase operations inside Israel, augmenting attack risks. (Source: Sibylline)
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