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Military And Security Developments
Aug 04. Lebanon travel advice has been updated to reflect the fact that dependents of British Embassy Beirut staff have been temporarily withdrawn.From:. A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office spokesperson, said: We are deeply concerned with the highly volatile security situation in Lebanon. The safety of British nationals is our top priority, which is why we have deployed additional consular officials, Border Force and UK military personnel to the region. We have also temporarily withdrawn the families of officials working at the British Embassy Beirut. The embassy continues to provide support to British nationals. The situation will continue to be monitored closely. All British nationals should leave Lebanon now, while commercial routes are still available. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
Aug 02.
- Greece: Escalating tensions in Middle East will likely drive risks to Israeli-linked assets in Europe. On 2 August, reports emerged that the National Intelligence Service (EYP) and counter-terrorism authorities are on high alert after receiving a warning from foreign security services about a potential attack on an Israeli target in the capital Athens. This follows the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, raising concerns about retaliatory attacks in third countries. EYP is in active communication with foreign intelligence counterparts including Cyprus, where Iran attempted a terrorist attack in December 2023. The Israeli National Security Council recently warned that Israelis should reconsider all travel abroad due to heightened threats from Iran, Hamas and Lebanese Hizballah. In May and June, low-intensity arson attacks targeted an Israeli hotel and a synagogue in Monastiraki (Attica region). The relatively high frequency of Iranian dissident attacks across Europe underscores the country’s capability to conduct malign operations in the region. We assess the risks of sole-perpetrator and targeted attacks will remain elevated in the coming weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
- Israel: Further flight cancellations in coming days will likely elevate disruption, security risks. On 1 August, commercial airlines (including Delta Air Lines and Lufthansa) suspended flights to Israel through early August following similar announcements by other airlines on 31 July. Meanwhile, a Lufthansa flight from Munich Airport (MUC) to Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district) was rerouted to Larnaca (Larnaca district) in Cyprus following the crew’s refusal to continue flying to Israel. This comes as 70,000 passengers gathered at TLV on 1 August and attempted to board flights out of Israel, highlighting the elevated demand for commercial providers. It is highly likely more airlines will cancel or limit flights to and from TLV in the coming days amid increasing regional tensions. We assess that Iranian proxies will likely escalate attacks in the coming days, exacerbating this trend and likely driving congestion around other ports of exit, elevating safety risks to those attempting to leave the country.
Aug 01.
KEY POINTS
- Israeli airstrike in Lebanon’s capital Beirut killed Lebanese Hizballah’s senior-most military commander, considerably elevating risks of major escalation.
- Israeli alleged attack killed Hamas’ political leader in Iran’s capital Tehran, compounding risks of regional armed escalation.
- Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue its operations in Rafah, southern Gaza and the Netzarim Corridor, central Gaza. On 30 July, IDF Division 98 completed its re-clearing operations in eastern Khan Yunis. On 1 August, the IDF confirmed the death of Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing, who was killed in an airstrike in Khan Yunis (southern Gaza) on 13 July.
- West Bank: Palestinian militant attack in southern West Bank reflects elevated attack risks following militant calls for mobilisation. On 31 July, a Palestinian gunman opened fire from a vehicle, targeting an Israeli civilian at the Okfim Junction, near the Israeli settlement Kiryat Arba (Hebron governorate). The perpetrator then stepped out of his car and stabbed the victim. The IDF detained the perpetrator later that day following search operations in the Hebron area. Hamas took responsibility for the attack and claimed another small arms attack targeting IDF soldiers near the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron (Hebron governorate) also on 31 July. The attacks reflect elevated security and bystander risks across the West Bank following the killing of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh (see below).
- Israel-Lebanon: The IDF confirmed its targeted strike killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Lebanese Hizballah (LH) commander, significantly elevating risks of armed escalation. On 30 July, Israel conducted an air strike in the Haret Hreik area of the Lebanese capital Beirut, killing Fuad Shukr and at least three civilians (see Sibylline Alert – Israel-Lebanon – 30 July 2024). Fuad Shukr was a close military advisor to LH’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, the senior-most military commander of LH, the head of the organisation’s strategic array and a leading figure on LH’s precision-guided missile project. The airstrike crossed two red of LH’s red lines, by killing civilians and targeting Beirut. Together with its result, LH is certain to retaliate against Israel, significantly elevating the risks of unmanaged escalation and a major conflict (see further in the FORECAST).
- Israel-Iran: Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, elevating regional security risks. On 31 July, after midnight, an explosion in a facility in northern Tehran killed Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh who was visiting Tehran to attend the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian (see Sibylline Alert – Iran-Palestinian Territories – 31 July 2024). Israel did not take responsibility for the attack, although it is highly likely responsible. On the same day, following the attack, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) convened to discuss the attack together with Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The attack, within the Iranian capital, significantly increases risks of retaliation by Iran and its proxies against Israel, elevating regional stability risks (see further in the FORECAST).
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has significantly escalated tensions between Israel and Hamas, stalling ceasefire negotiations. Hamas has stated it believes that Israel conducted the strike, significantly undermining ceasefire negotiation efforts. Although Hamas has not formally withdrawn from ceasefire negotiations at the time of writing, their representatives are highly unlikely to productively engage in talks over the coming days. As such, a ceasefire and hostage release deal remains highly unlikely in the short term.
- The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh triggered demonstrations and strikes in the Palestinian Territories and throughout the region, highlighting increased unrest risks. On 31 July, thousands of protesters in the West Bank participated in marches to condemn Haniyeh’s assassination, primarily in the Nablus, Ramallah and al Bireh, Tubas and Tulkarm governorates. The President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmoud Abbas declared 31 July a national day of mourning. Concurrently a significant proportion of public and private sector employees participated in a general strike, highlighting elevated labour flexibility risks emanating from developments in the conflict. Also on 31 July, similar, medium to large-scale protests occurred in multiple cities in Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. While the majority of protests were peaceful, minor clashes emerged in Amman (Jordan), after protesters attempted to reach the Israeli embassy in the Al-Rabiah neighbourhood. Protest activity will almost certainly continue over the coming days, with larger-scale demonstrations likely after Friday prayers on 2 August. Clashes with the security forces will likely drive localised mobility disruption and elevate bystander risks, particularly in major mosques and public spaces (see FORECAST).
- Amid elevated regional tensions and concerns over potential conflict escalation, numerous flight operators have suspended services to Israel and Lebanon. On 31 July, Air France and Transavia France announced the suspension of flights to Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) until at least 4 August. Also on 31 July, United Airlines and Delta announced the cancellation of services to Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) until at least 2 August. Local media reports also indicate that at least 70,000 individuals have gathered at Ben Gurion International Airport in an attempt to catch flights out of Israel, highlighting increasing risks of travel delays amid increasing demand for commercial providers. As regional tensions remain high, further flight suspensions and delays from numerous airlines are highly likely, decreasing the availability of commercial routes servicing Israel and Lebanon. In the event of a significant escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border, reduced commercial airline availability will likely limit the feasibility of evacuation efforts from private providers, substantially increasing risks of travel delays.
- Anti-government protesters in Israel continued targeting key thoroughfares, sustaining travel and supply chain disruption risks, particularly in central Israel. On 1 August, dozens of protesters calling for the government to secure hostage releases temporarily blocked the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district). The demonstration also marked the 300th day of the Israel-Hamas war and highlights increasing concerns over hostage safety and the feasibility of securing their release, particularly following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran (Iran). Concerns linked to static ceasefire negotiations are highly likely to drive increased participation in protest activity in Israel on 3 August during weekly hostage release demonstrations, elevating risks of substantial travel and supply chain disruption in major urban centres.
- Anti-conscription protests continued to sporadically target IDF recruitment operations, driving localised threats to bystanders. On 30 July, police clashed with dozens of ultra-Orthodox protesters during an anti-conscription demonstration in northern Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv). The demonstration targeted an IDF recruitment drive at the Beit HaHayal cultural centre on Weizmenn Street, triggering low-intensity clashes with police and numerous arrests. As the IDF continues efforts to increase recruitment from the ultra-Orthodox community and enforce conscription notices, demonstrations will almost certainly continue, particularly targeting recruitment centres in Bnei Brak and Tel Aviv (both Tel Aviv), Beit Shemesh and Jerusalem (both Jerusalem district). Demonstrations will likely trigger clashes with police, elevating security and bystander risks, while efforts to block key thoroughfares are highly likely to disrupt overland movement and supply chain continuity through affected areas.
Jul 30.
- Gaza Strip: Clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinian militants in Khan Yunis, Rafah (both southern Gaza) and central Gaza have increased in the past days, sustaining significant physical security and bystander risks. In addition, on 27 July, the IDF Air Force struck a school in Deir al-Balah (central Gaza), claiming it was a Hamas command centre that was also used to store and develop weapons. According to Hamas-affiliated government sources, the strike killed 30 individuals and injured one hundred others. The strike reflects the persistently elevated security threats in Gaza as hostilities continue, including around humanitarian and public infrastructure due to their repeated use by militants.
- West Bank: Palestinian militant activity and IDF operations remain elevated, particularly in the northern West Bank. On 27 July, al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants conducted a joint attack targeting IDF personnel at the Beit Furik military checkpoint between Nablus and Beit Furik (both Nablus governorate) with small arms fire (SAF). The IDF subsequently conducted operations in Balata (Nablus governorate), including a drone strike, and clashed with militants employing IEDs and SAF. After the IDF raid, the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade called for mobilisation against Israeli security personnel in the West Bank on 28 July. Since this call, the frequency of SAF and IED attacks targeting IDF personnel has increased in the northern West Bank, particularly in the Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarm governorates. The joint attack by Palestinian militants, as well as increasing militant activity, reflects elevated co-operation between militant organisations in the West Bank, driving risks of further attacks in the coming days. These risks will remain especially elevated in the northern West Bank, particularly targeting IDF positions, although risks of attacks in the proximity of Israeli settlements will also remain moderately elevated.
- Israel-Lebanon: A rocket strike on a majority-Druze town in northern Israel caused a mass casualty incident, increasing armed conflict escalation risks. On 27 July, a rocket, likely launched by Lebanese Hizballah (LH), hit a football pitch in Majdal Shams (Northern district), killing 12 minors and injuring at least 29 others. According to local news, rocket sirens malfunctioned, activating late and shortly before the rocket hit the town. While LH denied responsibility for the strike, the attack came amid a larger rocket barrage targeting northern Israel, for which the organisation claimed responsibility. This barrage was launched as retaliation for the killing of four operatives in southern Lebanon in IDF strikes earlier that day. Furthermore, the IDF’s initial investigation concluded that the rocket employed was a Falaq-1 rocket fired from Lebanese territory. Despite the numerous militant organisations operating in Lebanon, LH is the only group known to hold such a weapon system. The mass casualty event significantly elevates the risks of major armed escalation, with Israel almost certain to conduct an intense attack in retaliation in the coming days.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas continue, but will likely continue stalling due to sticking points on the IDF’s presence in southern and central Gaza. On 28 July, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announced that ceasefire talks will continue over the coming days following a negotiation summit in Rome (Italy). Despite continued diplomatic engagement, prospects for a ceasefire remain low. Reports indicate that Hamas continues to reject Israeli proposals that would allow the IDF to retain a presence on the Netzarim Corridor (central Gaza), and remain in control of the Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border, during any potential ceasefire period. Over the coming days, negotiations will likely continue to stall, moderating prospects of progress towards an agreement in the short term.
- The IDF began investigations into prisoner abuse at the Sde Teiman detention facility (Southern district), triggering protests and increasing tensions within the coalition government. On 29 July, IDF police arrested nine personnel accused of having abused a Palestinian prisoner who was held at the facility on terror charges. The alleged abuse reportedly paralysed the prisoner, highlighting persistent human rights concerns linked to detention conditions for Palestinians in Israeli custody. Also on 29 July, protesters opposed to the military police investigation, including at least one Member of the Knesset (MK), gathered at the facility. During the protest, demonstrators breached the compound, highlighting moderate concerns linked to the security forces’ capacity to deter unrest targeting military facilities. Numerous MKs, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, called to terminate the investigation, likely driving tensions within the coalition government, though threats to government stability remain low. Over the coming days, continued efforts to investigate and prosecute allegations of prisoner abuse are likely to drive further protest activity, particularly in the Beersheba (Southern) and Kfar Yona (Central district) areas. The allegations of prisoner abuse (alongside Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh’s calls on 28 July for a series of protest campaigns to denounce detention conditions in Israeli prisons), will sustain elevated ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank. While a moderate increase in demonstrations across the West Bank remains a realistic possibility, widespread unrest remains unlikely.
- Elevated concerns over Israel’s response to the strike in Majdal Shams (Northern) continue to drive risks of operational and travel disruption in Lebanon. Since 27 July, Germany, Italy and Norway issued travel advice recommending their respective nationals to leave Lebanon. Additionally, several airlines (including Lufthansa and Middle East Airways) temporarily suspended flights servicing Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY). Flight delays are highly likely to continue over the coming days, elevating risks of travel disruption and reducing the availability of commercially available routes servicing Lebanon (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 29 July 2024). In Israel, concerns over LH’s response to Israel’s retaliatory strikes in Lebanon have also driven several civil authorities to issue several warnings regarding the security environment. In Haifa (Haifa district), the University of Haifa suspended classes taking place in facilities above the fifth floor, due to concerns of LH targeting the city in the event of an escalation.
- Anti-government protests In Israel continued on trend, sustaining risks of operational and supply chain disruption. On 29 July, tens of thousands of protesters calling on the government to secure hostage releases attended demonstrations in numerous urban centres nationwide. In Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), thousands of protesters attended demonstrations, temporarily restricting movement along the Ayalon Highway, Begin Street and King George Street. Smaller-scale protests also took place in Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Rehovot (Central), moderately disrupting movement through both cities. In northern Israel, anti-government protestors also gathered in Haifa (Haifa) and Karmiel (Northern) and temporarily blocked the Amiad junction on Highway 90 (Northern district) and the Karkur junction on Highway 65 (Haifa district). As hostage release negotiations continue to stall, demonstrations will almost certainly continue, driving risks of operational and supply chain disruption in key urban centres, particularly Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
*Israel: Military base breaches underscore policing weaknesses; drive tensions within coalition government. On 29 July, right-wing Israeli protestors forced entry into a military compound near Kfar Yona (Central district) and Sde Teiman detention facility (Southern district) after the IDF opened an investigation into prisoner abuse at Sde Teiman, arresting nine personnel accused of abusing a Palestinian prisoner. The ability of protestors to breach both compounds highlights weaknesses in the security forces’ capacity to deter unrest targeting military facilities, elevating the risk of similar attempts in the future and driving safety threats to bystanders. Efforts to investigate and prosecute allegations of prisoner abuse are likely to drive further protest activity, particularly in Beersheba (Southern) and Kfar Yona (Central), elevating physical security risks to bystanders. Allegations by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant earlier on 30 July that Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir undercut police capacity to stop protestors from entering the bases will likely drive tensions within the coalition government but is unlikely to significantly elevate policy and governance risks.
Jul 29.
*Lebanon: Flight cancellations underscore operational risks to businesses amid risks of Israeli reprisal. On 29 July, several airlines announced the suspension of flights to and from Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) up to and including 30 July. The announcements come amid elevated risks of a strong Israeli retaliation in Lebanon following a strike in Majdal Shams (Northern district, Israel) on 27 July, which killed 12 minors and was likely conducted by Lebanese Hizballah. Airline delays and flight cancellations will likely continue in the coming days, particularly if an Israeli retaliation does not occur by 30 July. The elevated risks of an armed escalation between Israel and LH will likely continue increasing insurance costs and risks of operational disruption, particularly for airlines operating flights out of BEY. These will further elevate travel disruption risks, particularly for foreign nationals and companies looking to exit Lebanon due to the elevated security threats.
Jul 26.
*Israel: Cyber-attack highlights elevated cybersecurity, business operations risks during the Olympics. On 25 July, a cyber threat actor group, named ‘Zeus’, published the personal information of Israeli athletes attending the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. The information included military ID numbers, photo IDs, addresses, and usernames and passwords for online services, with Israeli authorities investigating possible connection of the group to Iran. The attack underscores the elevated risks of cyber-attacks on Israeli (as well as Israeli-affiliated) businesses and entities during the Olympics, in the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war. Furthermore, there is an elevated risk of cyber hacktivism by non-state actors, with attacks likely to include distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks and website defacement. Phishing attacks remain a realistic possibility, particularly against companies in the defence industry, elevating risks of threat actors accessing sensitive files, including customer databases. These will elevate operational risks for companies in the coming days, and further crime risks such as financial crime and identity theft in the longer term. In addition, the incident underscores heightened physical security and targeting risks for Israeli and Jewish athletes and attendees during the Games in Paris. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Aug 24. Iran vows retaliation for assassination of Hamas political leader.
What we’re covering.
- Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed Wednesday by an explosive device planted in a guest house in Tehran months before the explosion, a source tells CNN. Haniyeh was one of three high-profile figures in Iran-backed militant groups to be killed in recent weeks.
- A strike last month in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ military wing and an architect of the October 7 attacks, Israel said Thursday. And a strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday killed a senior Hezbollah commander.
- In Iran’s capital, thousands gathered to mourn Haniyeh today. Iran and Hamas have blamed the assassination on Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in Haniyeh’s killing.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led prayers at the service, has vowed to avenge Haniyeh. And in Beirut, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said Israel has crossed “red lines” and that regional conflicts are entering a “new phase.”
Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital of Tehran on Wednesday using an explosive device that had been covertly hidden in the guest house where he was staying, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.
The bomb was concealed about two months ago and detonated remotely once he was inside his room at the guest house, according to the source, who was briefed on the operation.
The New York Times was first to report the details of Haniyeh’s assassination.
The Iranian government and Hamas say Israel carried out the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.
US officials were briefed on the operation by Israeli officials only after the assassination, the source said.
Iranian state media and Hamas previously indicated Haniyeh was killed via a rocket fired from outside the building.
But the fact that the bomb was smuggled inside the guest house, which was under the protection of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicates a startling breach of security for the IRGC.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday: “You killed our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment.”
CNN is asking the Iranian government for reaction to this new reporting.
Blow to Hamas: Haniyeh’s death is, both strategically and symbolically, a dramatic blow to Hamas, eliminating its most public figure who headed up the group’s political operations while living overseas.
His killing also sparked concerns over stalled negotiations to reach a deal for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israeli attacks have killed 39,840 Palestinians and razed patches of land into rubble-filled wasteland. Haniyeh played a leading role representing Hamas in months-long truce talks. (Source: CNN)
31 Jul 24. Hamas political leader Haniyeh’s assassination deepens fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in the Iranian capital Tehran, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas on Wednesday, a major escalation that deepens fears of an all-out war in the Middle East.
Haniyeh is the second leader of an Iran-backed militant group reported to have been assassinated in recent days. His death represents a significant blow to Hamas, eliminating its most public figure who headed up the group’s political operations while living overseas.
In a statement, Hamas accused Israel of targeting Haniyeh and his bodyguard in a “strike” on his residence in Tehran, following his participation in Tuesday’s inauguration of the new Iranian president.
Israel’s military said it does not respond to reports in foreign media, though senior officials have previously vowed to eliminate Hamas and its leadership in response to the group’s October 7 attack on Israel. It later said it was “conducting a situational assessment.”
In contrast, Israel did confirm it carried out a strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday that killed Hezbollah’s most senior military commander, who it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The assassination of Fu’ad Shukr was the most serious Israeli escalation since confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8.
It is not clear precisely when Haniyeh, a key interlocutor with Egyptian and Qatari mediators on the ongoing hostage and ceasefire talks in Gaza, was killed. The new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in on Tuesday and Hamas released pictures the same day of Haniyeh meeting Iranian officials in Tehran.
The killing comes at an especially fraught time for the Middle East, with escalating confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah threatening to expand into a wider regional war and as Hamas continues to battle Israel’s military in Gaza amid an unfolding and catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
Musa Abu Marzouk, a member of Hamas’ Political Bureau, said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” while senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri called it a “grave escalation.”
Impact on hostage talks?
The White House said it has seen the reports of Haniyeh’s death but declined to immediately comment further, according to a spokesperson. While traveling in the Philippines, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he does not think war in the Middle East is inevitable, but if Israel were to be attacked the US would help defend it.
Haniyeh would be the second Hamas senior leader to be killed since the beginning of Israel’s war in Gaza. In January, the group said its deputy head of the political bureau Saleh Al Arouri was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Arouri was considered one of the founding members of the Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
However, the group has been able to weather the death of other key leaders before, including slaying of its co-founders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi who were killed weeks apart in 2004.
CNN Political and Foreign Policy Analyst Barak Ravid said the Israeli government sees Haniyeh as one of those responsible for Hamas’ October 7 attacks and while he is not militarily significant, his death “will have significant influence” on the ongoing hostage and ceasefire negotiations.
“This assassination is, in a way, just a matter of when, not a matter of if,” Ravid said. (Source: CNN)
31 Jul 24. Israel said on Tuesday it had killed a senior Hizbollah commander in an air strike on Beirut, stating the operation was retaliation against the individual responsible for a deadly rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli military said Fuad Shukr died in the attack on an area of southern Beirut that is a Hizbollah stronghold. The Israel Defense Forces described Shukr as Hizbollah’s most senior military commander and right-hand man to Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group. Hizbollah has yet to make an official comment about the Israeli strike. The Israeli attack will stoke fears that intensifying clashes between Israel and Hizbollah could trigger a full-blown war despite a flurry of US-led diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. Tuesday’s strike marks the first time Israel has targeted a Hizbollah figure in Beirut since hostilities erupted between the two sides after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its attack on the Jewish state on October 7. The IDF said Shukr had helped plan and direct wartime operations by Hizbollah on Israel since October. “Hizbollah’s ongoing aggression and brutal attacks are dragging the people of Lebanon and the entire Middle East into a wider escalation. While we prefer to resolve hostilities without a wider war the IDF is fully prepared for any scenario,” said Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari. (Source: FT.com)
28 Jul 24. Israel cabinet authorizes government to respond to Hezbollah rocket.
Israel pledges to hit Hezbollah hard after rocket kills 12
- Hezbollah on ‘high alert’ in case of Israeli retaliation
- Lebanon in contact with U.S., other countries to de-escalate
- White House also blames Hezbollah
- National airline delays flights landing in Beirut
Israel’s security cabinet on Sunday authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on the “manner and timing” of a response to a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 teenagers and children, and which Israel and the United States blamed on Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack on Majdal Shams on Saturday, the deadliest in Israel or Israeli-annexed territory since Palestinian militant group Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault sparked the war in Gaza. That conflict has spread to several fronts and risks spilling into a wider regional conflict.
Israel has vowed retaliation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Israeli jets hit targets in southern Lebanon during the day on Sunday.
But there were expectations a stronger response could follow the security cabinet meeting convened by Netanyahu in Tel Aviv.
After the meeting ended, Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet “authorized the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister to decide on the manner and timing of the response.”
The White House on Sunday also blamed Hezbollah for the Majdal Shams strike. “This attack was conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah. It was their rocket, and launched from an area they control,” it said in a statement.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, said through her national security adviser that her “support for Israel’s security is ironclad,”
The U.S. said Washington has been in discussions with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts since Saturday’s “horrific” attack and that it was working on a diplomatic solution.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington did not want further escalation of the conflict, which has seen daily exchanges of fire between the Israeli military and Hezbollah along the border.
Britain expressed concern at further escalation while Egypt said the attack could spill “into a comprehensive regional war.”
On the ground, thousands of people gathered for funerals in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, territory captured from Syria by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war and annexed in a move not recognised by most countries.
Members of the Druze faith, which is related to Islam, Christianity and Judaism, make up more than half the 40,000-strong population of the Golan Heights. Large crowds of mourners, many in traditional high white and red Druze headwear, surrounded the caskets as they were carried through the village.
“A heavy tragedy, a dark day has come to Majdal Shams,” said Dolan Abu Saleh, head of the Majdal Shams local council, in comments broadcast on Israeli television.
Hezbollah initially announced it fired rockets at Israeli military sites in the Golan Heights, but said it had “absolutely nothing” to do with the attack on Majdal Shams.
ISRAEL SAYS ROCKET IRANIAN-MADE
However, Israel said the rocket was an Iranian-made missile fired from an area north of the village of Chebaa in southern Lebanon, placing the blame squarely on Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
It was not immediately clear if the children and teenagers killed were Israeli citizens.
“The rocket that murdered our boys and girls was an Iranian rocket and Hezbollah is the only terror organization which has those in its arsenal,” Israel’s foreign ministry said.
Two security sources told Reuters that Hezbollah was on high alert and had cleared some key sites in both Lebanon’s south and the eastern Bekaa Valley in case of an Israeli attack.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines said it was delaying the arrival of some flights from Sunday night to Monday morning, without stating why.
Israeli forces have been exchanging fire for months with Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, but both sides have appeared to be avoiding an escalation that could lead to all-out war, potentially dragging in other powers including the United States and Iran.
However, Saturday’s strike threatened to tip the standoff into a more dangerous phase. United Nations officials urged maximum restraint from both sides, warning that escalation could “engulf the entire region in a catastrophe beyond belief.”
Lebanon has asked the U.S to urge restraint by Israel, Lebanon’s foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, told Reuters. Bou Habib said the U.S. had asked Lebanon’s government to pass on a message to Hezbollah to show restraint as well.
ALL-OUT WAR FEARED
Iran’s foreign ministry warned Israel on Sunday against what it called any new adventure in Lebanon.
Syria’s foreign ministry said it held Israel “fully responsible for this dangerous escalation in the region” and said its accusations against Hezbollah were false.
The conflict has forced tens of thousands of people in both Lebanon and Israel to leave their homes. Israeli strikes have killed some 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including medics, children and journalists.
Hezbollah is the most powerful of a network of Iran-backed groups across the Middle East and opened a second front against Israel shortly after Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault on Israel.
Druze communities live on both sides of the line between southern Lebanon and northern Israel as well as in the Golan Heights and Syria. While some serve in the Israeli military and identify with Israel, many feel marginalized in Israel and some also reject Israeli citizenship.
(Source: Reuters)
30 Jul 24. Israel restocks $190m mortar munitions amidst continuing conflict. As Elbit Systems secures a contract to provide precision-guided mortar munitions to the Israeli Ministry of Defense, fears mount that these weapons might be used in densely populated areas of Gaza, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
In a recent development, Elbit Systems Ltd. has been awarded a $190m (NIS710.6m) contract to supply Iron Sting guided mortar munitions to the Israeli Ministry of Defense. The agreement, which spans two years, will see the delivery of 120mm mortars designed for precision targeting and minimal collateral damage.
The Iron Sting munition has laser and GPS guidance capabilities and is engineered to hit targets with a range of up to 10km. This weapon features operational modes, including Point Detonation and Proximity Sensor.
However, the timing of this contract and the capabilities of these munitions have sparked renewed scrutiny over their potential impact on civilians in Gaza.
With a market share of 19%, Israel will be the second-leading country in the Middle Eastern region. Israel faces significant security challenges in the area, including missile threats from the state, non-state actors, and neighbouring countries, which drives the need for investments in missile defence systems to protect itself from potential missile attacks, according to GlobalData’s “The Global Missiles & Missile Defense Systems Market 2023-2033” report.
Yehuda (Udi) Vered, General Manager of Elbit Systems Land, defended the contract, emphasising the importance of precision-guided technology in modern warfare. “Following the combat experience our cutting-edge guided mortar munition has accumulated, this contract further cements our position as a market leader in precision-guided solutions.
With the rise of military conflicts in urban environments, armed forces worldwide demand accurate technologies that minimize collateral damage. Elbit Systems’ Iron Sting meets this critical need.”
In May 2023, Elbit Systems secured a €20m (NIS80m) contract with Montenegro to supply 120mm mortar munitions and train its military personnel. (Source: army-technology.com)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Home land Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
A CNIM Group Company
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