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Military And Security Developments
Jun 27.
KEY POINTS
- Numerous states have issued travel warnings advising against travel to Lebanon, highlighting increasing international concerns over a significant escalation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Hizballah (LH).
- Israel’s High Court of Justice ruled that ultra-Orthodox men must be conscripted into the IDF, increasing risks of protests and domestic unrest in the Jerusalem and Tel Aviv districts.
- Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for the Shujaiyya area in northern Gaza, indicating a likely uptick in clearing operations over the coming week. On 27 June, the IDF issued evacuation orders for residents of Shujaiyya and its environs, instructing civilians to evacuate south via the Salah al-Din road to the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone (Rafah governorate, Gaza). The orders signal heightened risks of airstrikes and intense operations in the area over the coming weeks, sustaining critical threats to life.
- West Bank: An explosion incident during IDF raid in the northern West Bank highlights militants’ growing capabilities. Overnight between 26 and 27 June, a bomb hidden below the road hit an armoured personnel carrier (APC) belonging to an IDF medical force during an operation in Jenin (Jenin governate), causing light injuries. Following the explosion, a second bomb, remotely detonated, hit the IDF personnel who rushed by foot to the scene, killing one soldier and injuring 16 more. The road was cleared earlier by an IDF D9 bulldozer, meaning the two bombs were likely buried at least 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) deep (an unusual depth), preventing their discovery. The complex attack highlights the growing expertise and capabilities of militants in the West Bank, reflecting a continued (albeit slow) shift in the operational environment. This shift is likely to continue and slowly increase security risks from militant activity in the area over the coming months.
- Israel-Lebanon: Despite a moderate decrease in Lebanese Hizballah (LH) activity, the group continues to increase the frequency of its drone incursions into Israeli airspace. Despite a relative decrease in the frequency and intensity of LH attacks on northern Israel, tensions remain elevated in the Israel-Lebanon border. In the past week, the IDF has increased the frequency of cross-border strikes in southern Lebanon, including targeted strikes on LH militants. Consequently, security risks in northern Israel and southern Lebanon continue to be high. Additionally, hospitals in northern Israel have begun preparations for extreme scenarios in the past week. These include providing services during extended power cuts without backup generators or usual levels of access to medical and food supplies. Hospitals also increased their blood reserves in line with efforts to build up a six-day reserve of blood supplies (instead of the usual four). We continue to assess that major escalation in southern Lebanon is likely in July, particularly mid-late July, elevating energy security and security risks in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
- Israel-Syria: The increase in IDF strikes in Syria reflects growing efforts to prevent weapon transfers to LH and the West Bank. Overnight on 26 and 27 June, an alleged Israeli strike in Rif Dimashq governate killed two people while targeting infrastructure used by LH-affiliated militants. The strike triggered Syrian air defences and several civilians were injured by shrapnel from air defences interceptions. The incident highlights elevated security risks in Syria due to increasing Israeli strikes. The incident also highlights the elevated bystander security risks due to shrapnel from air defence interception. Security risks are further exacerbated by the backdrop of increased tensions between Israel and LH.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- On 25 June, Israel’s High Court of Justice ruled that the state must conscript ultra-Orthodox men into the IDF, driving domestic ethno-religious tensions and risk of unrest. Numerous ultra-Orthodox religious figures rejected the ruling, underscoring elevated ethno-religious tensions within Israel. Leaders in Shas and United Torah Judaism (ultra-Orthodox parties within the government coalition) have also criticised the ruling, highlighting increasing inter-party tensions and moderate threats to government stability. The ruling also prevents the state from issuing bursaries to yeshivas (seminaries) where individuals without valid draft exemptions study, as well as stipends to full-time students. This will moderately increase socio-economic health concerns within the ultra-Orthodox community. In line with the ruling, the Attorney General’s Office has instructed the IDF to draft 3000 ultra-Orthodox yeshiva (seminary) students by 1 July, increasing risks of unrest in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv districts (see FORECAST).
- Numerous governments have issued travel warnings for Lebanon, highlighting an increasingly fraught travel risk environment linked to elevated tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. Since 25 June, states including Australia, Canada, Germany, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland have advised against travel to Lebanon due to increasing concerns over an uncontrolled escalation in clashes between the IDF and LH. Australia, Canada, Germany and Sweden also advised citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible given their embassies’ limited capacity to provide emergency evacuation in the event of a significant escalation. The travel warnings highlight the increasingly unstable travel risk environment in Lebanon, particularly in southern Lebanon. An escalation in cross-border clashes will likely further reduce the availability of commercial routes, increasing risks of travel disruption, particularly at Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY).
- Despite reported progress towards developing post-war administrative plans, elevated insecurity continues to undermine long-term governance conditions within Gaza. On 25 June, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly indicated to regional security partners that Egypt and the UAE had agreed to participate in a multi-national security force operating in post-war Gaza. Similarly, at the Reichman University Herzliya Conference on 25 June, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi indicated that Israel will seek to establish a governance structure within Gaza formed of local, non-Hamas administrative units in collaboration with ‘moderate Arab states’. Despite these plans, long-term rivalries between Hamas and non-aligned ethno-religious groups (known as clans) continue to undermine long-term prospects for developing alternative administrative structures within Gaza. On 27 June, local media outlets released unconfirmed reports that separate clashes between Hamas and the Abu Amra and Hiles clans killed at least two militants in central Gaza. Long-standing tensions between Hamas and non-aligned groups will likely escalate as Israel and international allies attempt to co-opt clans into civil administrative structures, undermining government stability prospects.
- New data indicates that the Palestinian Territories’ economy shrank by over 35% in Q1 2024, highlighting significant socio-economic health concerns. On 27 June, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) released data indicating that the West Bank’s GDP shrank by 25% from January to March while Gaza’s GDP shrank by 81%. While an economic decline in Gaza is almost certainly linked to the Israel-Hamas war, economic contraction in the West Bank is likely linked to continued restrictions on Palestinian labourers entering Israel on work permits as well as the Israeli government’s continued delays on fiscal transfers to the Palestinian Authority (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 13 June 2024). Over the coming months, continued economic contraction in the West Bank will increase the risk of unrest, particularly in Ramallah (Ramallah and al Bireh governorate); significant food, water and energy insecurity will almost continue undermining socio-economic health in Gaza.
FORECAST
Following the High Court of Justice’s ruling, activists are highly likely to hold anti-conscription protests over the coming days, elevating risks of travel and supply chain disruption, particularly in central Israel. Protest activity will likely be concentrated in urban centres with significant ultra-Orthodox populations, including Beit Shemesh (Jerusalem district), Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv district) and Jerusalem’s Geula, Kikar HaShabbat and Mea Shearim areas (all Jerusalem district). Protesters will highly likely block nearby thoroughfares, including Highway 4 near Bnei Brak and the entrance to Jerusalem on Highway 1, elevating risks of travel and supply chain disruption. There is also a realistic possibility of violent clashes between protesters, counter-protesters and security forces, as well as sporadic acts of vandalism and stone-throwing, increasing bystander and collateral risks. Even so, widespread rioting remains unlikely and demonstrations are unlikely to result in critical operational disruption or labour shortages.
Long-term efforts to reform conscription legislation are highly likely to sustain tensions within the governing coalition, increasing risks of policy stasis. In response to the High Court of Justice’s ruling, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely attempt to re-draft legislation providing broad exemptions to ultra-Orthodox men from military service. Legislation providing broad or long-term exemptions will likely face significant opposition in the Knesset, elevating risks of policy stasis. Conversely, legislation with narrow exemption criteria will almost certainly face opposition from Netanyahu’s key coalition partners, namely Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ). While ultra-Orthodox parties are unlikely to withdraw from the Likud-led government due to a lack of suitable alternative coalition partners, there is a realistic possibility of these parties’ members withholding votes from government policy initiatives, increasing policy stasis risks. To break through legislative deadlock, Netanyahu will likely offer concessions to coalition partners in other policy areas, such as funding for religious schools and settlement expansion in the West Bank. These initiatives will likely exacerbate domestic ethno-religious tensions and sustain risks of anti-government protests.
While major escalation in southern Lebanon is increasingly likely, Israel is likely to continue its civil and military preparations in the coming two weeks, likely delaying major escalation in the short term. Israel is likely to seek further control in Gaza, consolidating IDF positions and enhancing proximate security so they can withstand a shift in military focus towards the north. The new refocus of operations in northern Gaza is likely an indicator of such efforts. Furthermore, apart from other military preparation requirements in the north, Israel will also need to further advance civilian preparations for intensified conflict in the north. This is highlighted by the growing preparation of Israeli hospitals. However, other aspects of civilian preparedness are not fully addressed yet, such as potential plans for wider civilian evacuation. These factors, as well as other subjects like questions on hostage release and diplomatic visits of key government officials abroad, will likely delay a major escalation in the coming two weeks, though an intensification of Lebanon-Israel tensions remains a likely scenario.
Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):
- A successful terror attack by LH and/or Hamas targets Israeli/Jewish entities outside Israel
- High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
- Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
- Israeli airstrikes against Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting LH and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
- An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation by Lebanon-based militants
- US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
- Israel conducts further strikes against Hamas’ leadership in Lebanon
- Operations in Rafah escalate significantly in their intensity and breadth
- An IDF targeted strike kills a senior LH commander(s)
Jun 26.
*Canada-Lebanon: Order for Canadians to leave Lebanon underlines conflict risks, regional tensions. On 25 June, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly called for all Canadian citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, while commercial flights remain available. Joly stated that the security situation in Lebanon has become increasingly volatile and unpredictable due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. Around 15,000 Canadians are registered with the embassy in Lebanon, though the actual number is likely much larger. On 19 June, Joly also warned that Canadians will face a heightened risk of arbitrary detention in Iran and cautioned all citizens not to travel there, underscoring rising regional tensions. Should conflict escalate in Lebanon in the near term, citizens will likely face increased bystander risks and difficulty in receiving consular services from Canada. In the long term, it remains possible that the Canadian government will launch a large-scale evacuation effort as it did during the Israel-Lebanon conflict in 2006. However, limited naval resources in the region will likely curtail such an effort.
Jun 25.
*Israel: Supreme Court decision on ultra-Orthodox conscription increases political and business risks. Earlier on 25 June, Israel’s Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the government would have to conscript ultra-Orthodox yeshiva (seminary) students to the military, given the expiry of the law exempting them from military service. The ruling comes as members of the Knesset debate controversial legislation to lower the age of exemption for yeshiva students from 26 to 21 and increase the rate of ultra-Orthodox conscription. The ruling will likely elevate tensions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its ultra-Orthodox coalition government partners, increasing the likelihood of political fallout and calls for a new legislative election. The ruling will also likely trigger further protests by ultra-Orthodox groups opposing conscription, particularly in Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv district) and Jerusalem (Jerusalem district). Traffic disruption is likely in and around protest locations, particularly on Highway 4, elevating operational and supply chain disruption risks over the coming days.
Jun 24.
KEY POINTS
- Cross-border hostilities between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) remain elevated and a major escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border is increasingly likely, particularly in mid-late July.
- In Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to slowly advance towards al-Mawasi humanitarian area through Rafah, although the main operations remain concentrated in the Tel al-Sultan area (southern Gaza) and on the Netzarim Corridor.
- Gaza Strip: The IDF began advancing towards northwest Rafah, though operational focus remains centred on the Tel al-Sultan area in Rafah and the Netzarim Corridor. In the past days, forces of Brigade 401, raided and destroyed the Abu Said training camp associated Hamas’s Tel al-Sultan battalion in Rafah. Additionally, displaced Gazans reported sightings of IDF tanks near the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone area on 23 June. A recent uptick in attacks on IDF units within Rafah involving planted improvised explosive devices beneath armoured vehicles reflects the continued operationality of Hamas militants in the area, increasing the likelihood of expanding ground operations over the coming days.
- West Bank: The detonation of an explosive device in the northern West Bank reflects the growing sophistication of attacks and increased security risks. On 23 June, unidentified militants detonated an explosive device a few hundred feet from the West Bank border fence in proximity to Bat Hefer (Tulkarm governorate). The IDF reported that the explosion was an attempt to draw forces to the area, likely to study their response time and patterns. This attack therefore underscores ongoing militant efforts to gather information, increase ambush attack capabilities and facilitate cross-border attacks. Given elevated security risks in the area, the IDF will likely sustain an elevated posture in the northern West Bank in the coming weeks, elevating travel disruption and bystander security risks.
- Israel-Lebanon: Cross-border hostilities gradually intensified over the past few days, although remain less intense than hostilities recorded before Eid al-Adha (15-19 June). Lebanese Hizballah (LH) continues to deploy a variety of drones, primarily targeting IDF positions and factories associated with the defence industry. On 23 June, IDF air defences intercepted a drone target targeting a factory associated with Rafael, an Israeli defence company, in the Misgav area (Northern district). Tensions are likely to remain elevated, while cross-border hostilities are likely to continue gradually escalating in the coming weeks, sustaining elevated security and bystander risks (see FORECAST).
- Israel-Lebanon: On 22 June, the IDF killed a top Hamas operative in Lebanon, reflecting continued, non-LH militant activity in the country. The IDF confirmed it conducted a drone strike on a vehicle carrying Ayman Ghatma near Khiara (Beqaa governorate), approximately 25 miles (40km) from the Israel-Lebanon border. Ghatma was responsible for supplying weapons to Hamas in Lebanon as well as to the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya terror group. The assassination highlights diverse militant activity within southern Lebanon and continued risks of inter-group co-operation, particularly weapons transfers.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- On 20 June, aid deliveries via the US-constructed port in Gaza resumed, though critical security conditions continue to undermine distribution operations. The port facility remains highly susceptible to damage from weather conditions, sustaining risks of disruption to aid delivery operations therein. Furthermore, on 21 June, the Associated Press released statements from an unnamed United Nations official claiming that armed groups routinely loot aid trucks and hold drivers at gunpoint, partially facilitated by a lack of IDF protections for aid convoys. Deteriorating governance standards throughout Gaza will sustain substantial threats to NGO staff, particularly truck drivers and distribution staff.
- Police violently cracked down on anti-government protests in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district) on 22 June, highlighting increasing bystander and operational disruption risks. On 22 June, approximately tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Tel Aviv to participate in anti-government protests calling for hostage releases and early elections. Police deployed mounted units and were filmed violently dispersing protesters, triggering a formal investigation from the Public Defender’s Office. Police also arrested three demonstrators for attempting to erect a roadblock on King George Street near the Likud party headquarters, highlighting risks of movement disruption beyond protest hotspots, such as the Ayalon Highway and Kaplan Street. Thousands of demonstrators also gathered in Jerusalem (Jerusalem district), specifically calling for the government to secure the Israel-Lebanon border and facilitate the return of displaced civilians from the Northern district. Throughout the ‘Week of Disruption’ (17-24 June) protest campaign, numerous demonstrations occurred nationwide, with daily protests in Caesarea (Haifa district) and Jerusalem. Amidst increasing protest frequency and scale, businesses with operations in protest hotspots, namely Caesarea, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, are highly likely to continue facing sporadic travel delays and supply chain disruption. Heavy-handed police dispersal tactics also highlight increasing incidental and collateral risks, particularly in Tel Aviv.
- Anti-government protesters continue to call for industrial action in response to stalling hostage release efforts, highlighting increasing labour flexibility concerns. On 24 June, demonstrators blockaded the entrance to the headquarters of Histadrut, Israel’s largest labour union, in Tel Aviv. The demonstrators called for the union to declare a general strike until the government secures hostage releases. While immediate and wide-scale industrial action remains unlikely, proliferating anti-government demonstrations underscore increasing labour flexibility concerns, particularly for highly unionised sectors, such as transport and port operations.
- Elevated tensions between the US and Israel highlight elevated risks of supply chain delays for defence and security firms, though are unlikely to undermine Israel’s security force capacity. In the past week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly claimed that the US is delaying weapons shipments to Israel. US officials have refuted these claims, stating that the US has only delayed deliveries of high payload munitions due to concerns that the IDF would employ them during operations in Rafah. These claims come amidst increasing tensions between the US and Israeli governments over stalling ceasefire negotiations and increasing civilian casualties resulting from IDF operations in Gaza. However, it is highly unlikely that the US has unilaterally delayed arms shipments to Israel over the past week. Rather, US authorities have likely rolled back emergency protocols implemented following the 7 October attacks that allowed the Department of Defense to fast-track weapons shipments to Israel to meet significant, short-term equipment needs. On 24 June, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant began an official visit to the US, likely moderating tensions between the administrations vis-à-vis IDF operations in Gaza. Continued dialogue between US and Israeli officials will likely moderate tensions over the coming days, however, sporadic disputes will moderately elevate risks of supply chain delays for defence and security firms exporting weapons to Israel.
- Fatah and Hamas have indefinitely suspended reconciliation talks, underscoring long-term governance concerns in Gaza. On 24 June, Hamas officials announced the indefinite postponement of reconciliation talks set to take place in China Fatah reportedly requested a delayed start to the negotiations due to developments in Gaza, which Hamas subsequently rejected. Over the coming months, reconciliation talks are unlikely to result in a rapprochement between the parties, sustaining long-term governance concerns stemming from the Palestinian Territories’ split administrations. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jun 24. Islamic Resistance in Iraq Claims Drone Strike on Israeli Target in Eilat. On Wednesday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced that it had conducted a drone strike targeting a critical Israeli military site in the city of Umm al-Rashrash, also known as Eilat. The group, an Iranian-backed umbrella organization, claimed responsibility for the attack, stating it was in solidarity with Gaza amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
The alarm for hostile aircraft intrusion sounded in Eilat late Tuesday night, and reports from Israeli media confirmed that a drone reached its target, evading interception. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that the UAV fell in the maritime area near Eilat, with an interceptor launched during the event.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, aligned with Yemen’s Houthi rebels who allegedly attacked a ship in the Gulf of Aden the same day, declared the operation as a response to what they described as massacres committed by Israel against Palestinians in Gaza.
The strike in Eilat follows a similar attack by the Islamic Resistance on Sunday, also claimed to be in support of Gaza. The Iraqi support front indicated their solidarity with Gaza and Lebanon, threatening further actions should Israel expand the conflict to Lebanon.
Sheikh Qais Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq party, warned the United States against supporting Israel, indicating that such actions would jeopardize American interests in Iraq and the region. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has previously targeted American sites in retaliation for the Israeli offensive in Gaza. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
25 Jun 24. Austin: Diplomacy Is Needed to Restore Calm on Israel-Lebanon Border. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said today he is concerned about the rise in rocket attacks in Israel’s north by Lebanese Hezbollah.
“We’re urgently seeking a diplomatic agreement that restores lasting calm to Israel’s northern border and enables civilians to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border,” Austin said, as he hosted an enhanced honor cordon and meeting at the Pentagon for Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Hezbollah’s rocket attacks mean more suffering for the more than 60,000 Israelis now displaced from their homes and for tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese, Austin said.
“Lebanese Hezbollah’s provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that they do not want, and such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon, and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians,” the secretary said.
Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war with terrible consequences for the Middle East, and diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation, he said.
Israel’s citizens still face a very real and very dangerous threat from Iran proxies and terrorist partners — not just Hezbollah, but also Hamas and the Houthis, he said.
The United States stands together with Israel to ensure that Iran, which is the source of so much of the region’s violence and instability, can never develop a nuclear weapon, Austin said.
The secretary also said he commends Israel for the comprehensive cease-fire and hostage proposal that it offered, as outlined by President Joe Biden and endorsed by the U.N. Security Council.
“The onus is on Hamas to accept this road map to a durable end to this war, and the failure of Hamas to accept this important proposal is prolonging the agony of Palestinian civilians and Israeli civilians alike,” he said.
Israel must continue to do more to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza, which is both a moral necessity and a strategic imperative. Israel must also continue to increase the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, Austin said.
The secretary said he’s also extremely concerned about the attacks by violent Israeli extremists against innocent Palestinians in the West Bank.
Austin said he looks forward to discussing how the U.S. and Israel can work with the Palestinian Authority and regional partners to increase security in the West Bank and bring stability to Gaza by credible planning for a postwar period and by moving on a path toward a two-state solution.
“Israelis and Palestinians both have the right to live in dignity and security, and as we move forward, our security bond with Israel will remain rock-solid,” he said.
Gallant thanked the United States for defending Israel against the massive April 13 drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies.
Talks today, he said, should focus on assuring the security of Israel, the return of the 120 hostages in Gaza, and the end of Hamas.
The greatest threat that the region and the world faces, Gallant said, is a nuclear-armed Iran.
Yesterday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Gallant. They discussed ongoing efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that secures the release of all hostages and alleviates the suffering of the Palestinian people, according to a State Department statement.
The secretary emphasized the need to take additional steps to protect humanitarian workers in Gaza and deliver assistance throughout Gaza in full coordination with the United Nations, the statement said.
Blinken updated Gallant on continuing diplomatic efforts to advance security, governance and reconstruction in Gaza during a post-conflict period and emphasized the importance of that work to Israel’s security.
Blinken also underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation of the conflict and reaching a diplomatic resolution that allows both Israeli and Lebanese families to return to their homes, the statement said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
25 Jun 24. Austin Urges Israel to De-Escalate Tensions on Border With Lebanon. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III urged Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to work to de-escalate tensions with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon during a meeting at the Pentagon this morning, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
The men discussed efforts to “de-escalate tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, to surge more humanitarian aid into Gaza, and to stand together against Iranian and Iranian-supported attacks against Israel and destabilizing activities throughout the Middle East,” Ryder said.
During the meeting, Ryder said, Austin reaffirmed the United States’ “ironclad” commitment to Israel and noted the U.S. has pledged more than $14 bn in assistance as part of the national security supplemental appropriation Congress passed in February. He also noted U.S. assistance in April when American assets helped defend Israel from drone and missile attacks from Iran and Iranian-backed groups.
Hezbollah has ratcheted up provocations on Northern Israel since the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, and those provocations have been increasing. Austin stressed that these provocations “threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that neither of them wants, and that such a war would be catastrophic for Lebanon and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians,” Ryder said.
Austin stressed to Gallant that diplomacy is the only way to prevent further escalation of tensions in the region, Ryder said. The secretary also urged Gallant to “double down on efforts to protect Palestinian civilians and humanitarian aid workers in Gaza,” he said. Austin and Gallant also discussed ways to improve the distribution of humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in dire need, Ryder said.
While the U.S. and Israeli officials looked at mechanisms for ensuring aid could get to the Palestinians who need it, they agreed “the most important aspect, though, would be … a cease-fire, and the onus is on Hamas,” Ryder said. “If a cease-fire could be put into place right now, that would greatly facilitate security and safety considerations on the ground, which would further facilitate the flow of aid.”
Ryder also said Austin spoke by phone today with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, noting the call is part of the secretary’s belief in the importance of maintaining lines of communication. The last time Austin spoke to a Russian counterpart was a call to then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on March 15, 2023. (Source: U.S. DoD)
25 Jun 24. Houthi Rebels Extend Missile Attack Range in Gulf of Aden. On Monday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a missile attack targeting a merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden, marking a significant escalation in their ongoing campaign. The attack occurred approximately 450 kilometers southeast of Nishtun, near the Yemeni-Omani border, an area typically controlled by forces loyal to Yemen’s exiled government. This incident represents one of the furthest attacks from their usual operational range, potentially signaling a broader escalation by the Iran-aligned group.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reported that a merchant vessel experienced an explosion nearby. The crew was reported safe, and the vessel, identified as the Liberian-flagged MSC SARAH V, continued to its next destination. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) later confirmed that the vessel was attacked by a missile but was not struck.
Since November, the Houthis have been intensifying drone and missile attacks in critical shipping lanes, citing solidarity with Palestinians in the Israel-Gaza conflict. These attacks have significantly disrupted shipping routes vital to Asian, Middle Eastern, and European markets. The Houthi campaign has resulted in the sinking of two vessels, the seizure of another, and the deaths of at least three sailors.
The recent attack comes amidst the U.S. Navy’s strategic movements in the region. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower recently concluded an eight-month deployment in response to previous Houthi assaults.
Suspicion immediately fell on the Houthis for this latest incident, although they have not yet claimed responsibility. The rebels often take hours or days to acknowledge their operations. The attack’s location, near the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, is unusual for the Houthis, raising concerns about their growing reach. Previous incidents have led to speculation about direct Iranian involvement, given the distance and complexity of the operations. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
21 Jun 24. France would support Lebanese Armed Forces in southern border security mission: Official.
A French official told Breaking Defense that Paris “must be ready” to aid Beirut should it attempt a historic deployment to secure Lebanon’s southern border, where Hezbollah could play spoiler.
France would support the Lebanese Armed Forces should Beirut decide to deploy them on a security mission to the southern border with Israel, a move that could prompt Paris to renew a push for international aid to the government forces, according to a French official.
France, like the rest of the world, has been watching warily the deterioration of the security situation along the border as Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah trade fire, prompting growing concerns of a wider war there.
The French official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested there were discussions centered around the Lebanese Armed Forces going to the border to quell the violence.
“Nothing will happen without a political green light,” the official said, “[but] we need to be prepared to facilitate an increased presence of the LAF in South Lebanon to contribute to the security of [the] Lebanese people and to the sovereignty of the Lebanese state and territory.”
The official talked with Breaking Defense late last month, before tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, which effectively has free reign in southern Lebanon, ratcheted up. In recent days, Israel has approved war plans for a broader conflict in Lebanon, while Hezbollah leadership has responded with threats to widen the conflict.
But the official’s broader point still stands: France believes a deployment of Lebanese government forces to the southern border could serve to calm the situation, as neither Israel nor Hezbollah would want to trigger a wider conflict by killing government forces.
France is “standing by the LAF, and we have been thinking of preparing different initiatives, always to support the political decision,” the official said.
Among those initiatives, the official said, could be the rescheduling of an international conference in Paris that would push friendly nations to offer security contributions to the Lebanese military specifically to support southern operations. A conference to support the LAF more broadly was supposed to take place in February, but was canceled.
The official emphasized that there are “a lot of discussions between us in Beirut or the countries and other capitals” about how to secure the southern portion of the country “and our narrative is all the same.”
“I think [and] that’s my personal opinion, we wish the Lebanese state could be able to enforce its sovereignty on its territory. But of course, there are many challenges. So we need to be prepared,” the official said. “I mean, we are fully aware we cannot be too naive or too optimistic. But history is full of surprises. And if something happens, and there is a window of opportunity, we cannot miss it.”
Those Many Challenges
There are already some LAF forces in the border region, but the discussions the French official said Paris is looking for would amount to a historic deployment not seen in decades — and one that former senior Lebanese military officers said could run up against several practical obstacles.
While some of the former officials expressed confidence that the LAF could successfully prosecute a border security mission, the biggest wildcard for such an operation would remain Hezbollah. The armed group is a formidable fighting force, and it’s unclear how it would react to the introduction of military troops into areas it controls.
(Source: Breaking Defense.com)
24 Jun 24. Netanyahu receives warning from panel probing submarine purchase. An Israeli commission investigating suspected wrongdoing in government purchases of submarines and missile boats from Germany issued a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.
The panel notified Netanyahu that based on evidence gathered thus far, it could ultimately determine that he had used his position as prime minister between 2009 and 2016 to greenlight the purchases without due process.
“By doing so, he (Netanyahu) endangered the security of the state and harmed the state of Israel’s foreign relations and economic interests,” said the panel in its written decision, made public on Monday.
Netanyahu in response said that the submarines were central to Israel’s security “in ensuring its existence against Iran, which is trying to destroy us”.
“History will prove that Prime Minister Netanyahu was right on this issue as well and made the right decisions for the security of Israel,” the statement from his office said.
The commission, established under the previous government in 2022, said that it will soon publish unclassified parts of the evidence collected during the probe into the deal, worth hundreds of ms of dollars.
Netanyahu has struggled to salvage his security credentials since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas-led fighters, who killed 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages to Gaza according to Israeli tallies, the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust. In the Israeli assault on Gaza that followed, more than 37,000 people have been killed according to Gaza health authorities.
(Source: Reuters)
22 Jun 24. Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the end of the “intense phase” of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza was “very close”, and that Israel would soon redeploy forces to its northern border where it has been trading near-daily fire with the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. In an interview with Israel’s Channel 14, the Israeli prime minister said the end of this phase of fighting in the enclave would not spell the end of the war. He insisted that Israel would continue until it had destroyed Hamas and freed the roughly 120 hostages the militant group still holds. But he said the switch to lower-intensity conflict there would give Israel “the possibility to shift some of our capabilities” to the north, where cross-border fire between Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hizbollah has escalated sharply in recent weeks. “We will do this, first and foremost for defensive purposes. And secondly, to allow our residents to return home,” Netanyahu said, referring to the roughly 60,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from northern Israel since the start of the war. “If we can do this diplomatically, great. If not, we will do it another way. But we will bring everyone back home.” Netanyahu said he hoped a full-blown war with Hizbollah, one of the world’s most heavily armed non-state actors, could be averted. But he said Israel would “meet this challenge” of fighting on multiple fronts if needed. “We can fight on several fronts. We are prepared for this,” he said. In a wide-ranging interview — his first with Hebrew media for 14 months — Netanyahu also ruled out the prospect of Israel re-establishing settlements in Gaza once the war with Hamas was over, and said that while he was prepared to countenance a brief truce to free hostages, Israel would resume fighting afterwards. “I’m willing to do a partial deal that will return to us a portion of the [hostages], but we are committed to continuing the war after a pause in order to fulfil the war’s objectives,” he said. Despite the intensifying exchanges between Israeli forces and Hizbollah, which have displaced tens of thousands of people and caused casualties in Lebanon and Israel, the two sides have not been drawn into all-out war, with the US leading a diplomatic push to de-escalate the situation. (Source: FT.com)
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