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Military And Security Developments
14 Jun.
- Israel-Lebanon: LH will likely retaliate after IDF airstrike, elevating risks for civilians in northern Israel. Overnight on 13-14 June, an alleged Israeli airstrike targeted a residential building in the Lebanese village of Janta near Tyre (South governorate), killing at least two civilians and injuring at least 18 others. There is a realistic possibility that the strike was a failed attempt to assassinate a top Lebanese Hizballah (LH) commander, Hashim Safi al-Din. The strike comes amid a recent uptick in cross-border hostilities (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 13 June 2024). While LH mostly maintains a policy of targeting military positions, harm to Lebanese civilians will likely prompt retaliation against Israeli civilian areas. As such, we assess the latest strike will likely trigger further retaliatory LH strikes against Israel’s Northern district in the coming days, further elevating security and bystander risks, including in Israeli population centres that have not been evacuated. This would further elevate the likelihood of a snowballing escalation, compounding the risks stemming from Israeli offensives into southern Lebanon this summer.
- Yemen: Continued maritime attacks will sustain threats to commercial vessels, disrupt supply chains . On 13 June, Iranian-backed Houthi forces fired two anti-ship cruise missiles at a Ukrainian-owned merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden, injuring one crew member and damaging the ship. The United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) destroyed an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and an unmanned ariel vehicle (UAV) in response. The incident comes one day after a Greek-owned ship was targeted in the Red Sea, and also amid ongoing attacks against commercial shipping in the region. Despite repeated strikes conducted to reduce Houthi offensive capabilities, the Yemen-based group retains the capacity to carry out regular attacks on commercial vessels, which will likely continue throughout H2 2024. While the Houthis have previously stated they would target vessels engaging with Israel or states associated with the US-led maritime coalition, the risk of misidentification remains elevated, driving the likelihood of physical harm to crews and of spillages emanating from damaged vessels. We assess that such threats will continue to drive greater commercial use of maritime routes around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), elevating journey times and costs. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Jun 24. Netanyahu disbands war cabinet as pressure grows on Israel’s northern border.
- Summary
- Netanyahu dissolves six-member war cabinet
- Visiting U.S. envoy seeks calm on northern border
- Israeli forces in simmering conflict with Hezbollah
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dissolved the six-member war cabinet, an Israeli official said on Monday, in a widely expected move following the departure from government of centrist former general Benny Gantz.
Netanyahu is now expected to hold consultations about the Gaza war with a small group of ministers, including Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer who had been in the war cabinet.
The move was announced as U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Jerusalem, seeking to calm the situation on the disputed border with Lebanon, where Israel said tensions with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia were bringing the region close to a wider conflict.
The Israeli military said on Monday it had killed a senior operative in one of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile sections in the area of Selaa in southern Lebanon.
The military also said its operations were continuing in the southern parts of the Gaza Strip, where its forces have been battling Hamas fighters in the Tel Sultan area of western Rafah, as well as in central areas of the enclave.
Hochstein’s visit follows weeks of increasing exchanges of fire across the line between Israel and Lebanon, where Israeli forces have for months been engaged in a simmering conflict with Hezbollah that has continued alongside the war in Gaza. (Source: Reuters)
17 Jun 24. Reckless Behavior by Iran-Backed Houthis Threatens Regional Stability. The continued reckless behavior by Iran-backed Houthis threatens regional stability and endangers the lives of mariners across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, said Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, during a news conference today.
The Houthis claim to be acting on behalf of Palestinians in Gaza, and yet, they’re threatening the lives of those who have nothing to do with the conflict, she said.
Last week, the Yemen-based Houthis struck two cargo ships: the M/V Tutor, which is Liberian flagged and Greek owned, and the M/V Verbena, which is Palauan flagged, Ukrainian owned and Polish operated.
The June 12 attack on the Tutor resulted in severe flooding and damage to the engine room. One civilian mariner remains missing following the attack, Singh said.
On June 14, the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea responded to distress calls from the Tutor. Aircraft from the cruiser and partner forces helped evacuate all personnel from the vessel. This operation took place in the Red Sea and within range of Houthi weapons, making it a risky and complex operation, she said.
Iranian, Russian and Chinese naval vessels were among the ships within response distance that did nothing to assist the Tutor, Singh noted.
The Tutor remains in the Red Sea and is slowly taking on water while awaiting recovery by salvage vessels, she added.
The June 13 attack on the Verbena resulted in fires onboard. One civilian mariner was medically evacuated by aircraft from the Philippine Sea to a partner nation’s ship for medical treatment, she said.
On June 15, the crew of the Verbena issued a distress call, but was forced to abandon ship. They were then rescued by the M/V Anna Meta, which was in the vicinity. At the time, an Iranian frigate was 8 nautical miles away from the Verbena and did not respond to the distress call, Singh said.
The Verbena is no longer on fire and is being towed toward a nearby port, she added.
Since Nov. 19, the Houthis have launched about 190 attacks. Only a handful have been successful, which speaks to the effectiveness of coalition forces at stopping the attacks, she said.
Also on June 14, U.S. Central Command removed the temporary pier from the Gaza shoreline, due to heavy seas; it was towed back to Ashdod, Israel. The pier will most likely be re-anchored later this week in Gaza when the sea state subsides, Singh said.
Spotlight: Helping Hands
The U.S. is working with the international community to get aid into Gaza as quickly as possible. Since the pier was anchored on May 17, over 3,500 metric tons of aid have been delivered to Gaza by humanitarian organizations, she said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
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