BATTLESPACE Updates

   +44 (0)77689 54766
   

NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

by

Sponsored by Exensor

 

www.exensor.com

 

————————————————————————-

Military And Security Developments

Oct 29.

  • The ongoing Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in northern Gaza has been accompanied by heavy artillery fire and intense airstrikes. Overnight, the IDF reinforced its positions in the Gaza Strip; it is gradually expanding its ground activity in the enclave, adapting to emerging developments and stated war aims. In the past 24 hours, Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets struck over 450 military targets in northern and southern Gaza. There is a reduced likelihood that the IDF will call back its forces in the next 24 hours.
  • Over the past 24 hours, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) continued to launch rockets against Israel. A rocket hit an apartment building in Or Yehuda, a town near Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV); it did not explode.
  • Over the past 24 hours, limited clashes continued between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah; there has been a slight increase in the intensity of this fighting. Several sirens were activated overnight throughout Israel’s northern border areas due to limited incursion attempts and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) fired towards Israel. In response, the IDF bombed several locations along the Israel-Lebanon border, from Rosh HaNikra to Mount Dov.
  • The IAF conducted airstrikes against positions in Quneitra governorate (Syria) manned by the Syrian army and Iranian proxies. The airstrikes were in response to a mortar launched from Syria towards the Golan Heights. Despite the mortar launch, the likelihood of major escalation by forces aligned with Iran, Hizballah and/or Syrian government forces is low.
  • Over the past 24 hours, low-intensity armed clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants in the West Bank continued at a previously observed intensity. The IDF also arrested 23 wanted individuals in the West Bank.

24-HOUR FORECAST

The IDF is likely to continue its ground operation in Gaza in the coming 24 hours. However, amid the gradual return of internet and mobile services in the enclave, as well as the operation’s continued expansion, international calls for a ceasefire are likely to grow. As the operation continues, the threat of further cross-border rocket launches targeting Israel is likely to increase, particularly from Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. While we continue to assess that a major escalation is unlikely in the coming 24 hours, an uptick in rocket launches and clashes along Israel’s northern borders remain possible. Such clashes will elevate the risk of miscalculation from both sides, and thus the likelihood of escalation.

Elevated ethno-religious tensions and Palestinian militants’ calls to mobilise against Israel will elevate bystander and security risks in the West Bank in the coming 24 hours. Notably, the Palestinian Authority (PA) managed to prevent Palestinians from vandalising Joseph’s Tomb near Nablus. Any deliberate damage to the tomb would increase the likelihood of clashes between Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank; these would in turn exacerbate escalation risks. Furthermore, in the past 24 hours, Iranian and Palestinian sources increased their mobilisation efforts across the West Bank, framing Israelis therein as valid targets. This will likely further elevate security risks in the West Bank, particularly for Israeli population centres. The threat posed by Palestinian militants and sole perpetrators will remain heightened in the coming 24 hours, particularly across the West Bank. However, there is also a realistic possibility that such threats will diffuse to other Israeli cities outside the West Bank, particularly Jerusalem.

 Oct 28.

  • The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground operation into northern Gaza; the manoeuvre was accompanied by heavy artillery fire and intense airstrikes. Armoured vehicles, tanks and infantry units remain in Gaza as part of an ongoing extended ground offensive. Additionally, over 100 Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets conducted airstrikes against the Gaza Strip, hitting at least 150 underground tunnels and bunkers. Since the start of the ground manoeuvre, internet and communication services in Gaza have been cut. The IDF is refraining from categorising the manoeuvre as its official ground operation; this approach will allow Israel’s leadership to be adaptable in the event of developments related to the military and political/diplomatic spheres. There is a realistic possibility that the IDF will call back its forces in 48-72 hours.
  • Over the past 24 hours, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) continued to launch rockets against Israel. A rocket hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv, injuring four people; it severely damaged the top floor and caused a fire which impacted several lower floors.
  • Over the past 24 hours, limited clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah continued at the same intensity as previous days. A surface-to-air missile (SAM) launched from Lebanon against an IDF drone was intercepted; this marks the third such incident since 7 October.
  • Over the past 24 hours, there was a small uptick in low-intensity armed clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants in the West Bank; however, the situation remains broadly stable. Overnight, the IDF arrested 11 alleged terrorists, two of whom are suspected Hamas members.

24-HOUR FORECAST

There is a realistic possibility that the IDF will continue its ground manoeuvre in the next 24 hours in order to maximise its operational and strategic gains. One of the likely aims of the operation is to retrieve hostages kidnapped by Hamas, either through force or by applying military pressure to expediate negotiations. However, Israel’s military and political leadership are likely to face increasing domestic pressure from the public if the offensive continues without tangible results related to the hostage situation. Similarly, pressure from the international community to cease the offensive will increase in the event of further reports of civilian fatalities and destruction in Gaza.

The ground manoeuvre will elevate risks of an uptick in domestic unrest and militant activity in the West Bank, which will in turn increase security and miscalculation risks. Elevated ethno-religious tensions will also exacerbate the risk of Israeli settlers clashing with Palestinian communities in the West Bank. Tensions will likely increase further if Palestinians vandalise places of worship in the West Bank, which will also raise the likelihood of retaliation by Israeli settlers. The threat posed by militant squads to Israeli assets in the West Bank and Jerusalem area, including military posts and Israeli population centres, will consequently also increase. Attempted attacks by said squads or sole perpetrators are likely to increase in the coming 24 hours, elevating security and bystander risks in Israeli cities, particularly Jerusalem. Such attacks are likely to include shootings, stabbings and car-rammings; Jewish places of worship such as synagogues will also face heightened risks.

Further rocket launches from Lebanon and/or Syria will increase the likelihood of miscalculation, and therefore escalation. There is a realistic possibility of an uptick in rocket launches from Lebanon and/or Syria targeting IDF positions and Israeli cities. An uptick in clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border is also likely. While we continue to assess that Hizballah is not interested in a major escalation, there is a realistic possibility that it is preparing for this scenario. A major uptick in clashes would elevate miscalculation risks across Israel; this would, in turn, raise the likelihood of further escalation.

Oct 27.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 26 October, the tempo and nature of Israeli Air Force (IAF) and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations in Gaza remained on trend, though there has been a reduced frequency of Lebanese Hizballah cross-border attacks into northern Israel.
  • Another overnight raid into Gaza underscores the IDF’s intent to prepare its operational environment ahead of a delayed ground operation.
  • US air strikes targeting Iranian-linked weapons facilities in Syria will sustain regional spillover risks as the fighting continues; US assets will remain exposed to missile/drone attacks in the near term.
  • In the past 24 hours, the IDF has struck over 250 targets across the Gaza Strip, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) infrastructure and positions. Furthermore, the IDF and Israel’s security service, the Shin Bet, killed Midhat Mubasher (the Hamas commander of the West Khan Yunis Battalion) in an overnight operation.
  • Also overnight, the IDF carried out a second limited ground operation into Gaza. The raid into central Gaza was accompanied by armoured units, tanks, UAVs, fighter helicopters and IDF engineering forces. In conjunction, IDF artillery fire and IAF fighter jets struck Shujaiyya neighbourhood (Gaza City).
  • On 27 October, a downed drone hit an ambulance facility and a building at Taba hospital in Egypt’s South Sinai governorate; the ensuing explosions injured six people. A projectile also reportedly fell near an electricity plant close to the Red Sea resort town of Nuweiba (South Sinai). With regard to the incident, an IDF spokesperson stated that the IAF had detected and intercepted an aerial threat in Red Sea airspace. Investigations are ongoing. Initial reports suggest the launch was possibly conducted by the Yemen-based Houthis.
  • Rocket launches from Gaza continued to target cities in central Israel over the past 24 hours. However, their frequency remains lower than in the first week of the war, with the tempo reduced to sporadic intense barrages. Israel’s Iron Dome continues to intercept the vast majority of rockets over Israeli cities. However, a rocket which struck an open area in Rehovot damaged electricity cables and caused short-term power cuts in the area. On 27 October, three individuals were injured in a rocket strike in Tel Aviv.
  • Over the past 24 hours, cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued, though at a lower rate than during the previous day. The IDF has continued to strike militants who are attempting to launch rockets and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) at IDF military posts on the border with Lebanon. We continue to assess that Hizballah does not intend to trigger a major escalation that would result in the creation of a second front. However, the change in the pace of clashes possibly means that Hizballah is preparing to increase its strike rate in the event of an IDF ground operation over the weekend.
  • Over the past 24 hours, the IDF arrested 36 people on terrorism charges across the West Bank, including 17 alleged Hamas operatives. Security operations have resulted in several instances of armed clashes and violent confrontations. For instance, in Jenin, PIJ militants used small arms and IEDs against IDF personnel. Three PIJ members were killed in the clashes, including a senior member of the Jenin Brigade.
  • Over the past 24 hours, eight protests took place in the West Bank, including a gathering on 26 October in the Shuafat refugee camp near Jerusalem. During the protest in Shuafat, Palestinian protesters burnt tyres in the vicinity of Moshe Shamir Street in the Pisgat Zeev neighbourhood. Earlier on 27 October, the IDF raided the refugee camp in response. No injuries or casualties were reported at the time of writing. Protests are likely to intensify throughout 27 October and over the weekend due to Friday prayers and continued mobilisation calls for unrest and armed confrontations by the Lions’ Den (a Nablus-based West Bank militant group).
  • On 27 October, the US conducted two airstrikes against facilities near Abu Kamal in eastern Syria. The two facilities were reportedly weapons silos linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian-backed militias. The strikes mark the first pro-active engagement by the Biden administration since the start of the Hamas-Israel war; they come after repeated drone and rocket attacks against US military positions across Iraq and Syria since 18 October. The most recent of these attacks targeted a US airbase in Erbil (Iraq) on 26 October. While US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated that US strikes are not related to the Hamas-Israel war, the uptick in the targeting of US forces points to the spillover risks stemming from the conflict. Security and bystander risks in the vicinity of US forces in Iraq and Syria will remain heightened in the near term.

 

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • On 27 October, a humanitarian aid convoy of ten trucks entered Gaza via the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Since the crossing opened to humanitarian aid on 21 October, 84 trucks have passed through. Even so, the chief of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has warned that food supplies in Gaza are running critically low and that the UNRWA will soon be unable to operate in the enclave. No fuel has been allowed to enter since the IDF imposed a blockade on Gaza on 9 October, significantly undermining energy security. Fuel is key to NGO operations, including water filtration, food production and providing medical care.
  • On 27 October, the Egyptian authorities reportedly began constructing a field hospital near the Rafah border crossing. While the Egyptian foreign ministry has repeatedly stated that Cario will not facilitate an evacuation of the Gaza Strip by accepting large numbers of Palestinian refugees, the construction of this facility indicates that there is a realistic possibility that a limited number of individuals will be allowed to enter Egypt in the coming days. However, cross-border movement will likely be restricted to foreign and dual nationals, sustaining concerns over deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
  • On 26 October, a Hamas delegation met with Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, in Moscow (Russia). The delegation reportedly included a senior Hamas member (Abu Marzouk). Discussions centred on the release of foreign hostages in Gaza and the evacuation of Russian citizens. Moscow has repeatedly cited the conflict as a failure of Washington DC’s diplomacy and claims to want to balance relations with both sides. During the discussions, Marzouk announced that no additional hostages will be released from Gaza until Israel has agreed to implement a ceasefire. It is highly unlikely that Israel will agree to a ceasefire with Hamas, given its concerns that the group will not abide by the terms and use the cessation to regroup and consolidate fighters and resources ahead of the imminent IDF ground offensive. Marzouk also claimed that many hostages are held by non-Hamas militants; this will complicate efforts to negotiate their release.
  • On 27 October, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) will vote on a resolution proposing a ceasefire in Gaza.  While the resolution will likely be adopted, UNGA resolutions are non-binding; it is therefore highly unlikely that a resolution will result in a ceasefire agreement. The vote will likely exacerbate polarisation within the UNGA; it is also likely to strain Israel’s relations with neighbouring countries and international partners. Earlier on 27 October, the UN Human Rights Office (UNHRO) announced that it is ‘concerned’ that the IDF is committing ‘war crimes’ in Gaza; this points to increasing tensions between Israel and the UN. These tensions will likely undermine mediation efforts by UN institutions and personnel, further decreasing the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in the coming days.
  • On 26 October, the foreign ministers of Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE issued a statement condemning the IDF’s actions in Gaza. The statement claims that the IDF is acting beyond the remit of self-defence and neglecting the ‘rights of the Palestinian people’. The statement underscores how elevated regional tensions will likely limit mediatory efforts; this will possibly undermine negotiations to release additional hostages held by Hamas.
  • On 27 October, Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara reportedly agreed to fast-track legislation allowing the police to use live fire against protesters blocking roads during demonstrations. The legislation, which has been proposed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, would apply to protests in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Consequently, there is a realistic possibility that demonstrations in the coming weeks will quickly escalate into violent confrontations with the security forces; participants and/or bystanders face elevated safety risks at all such gatherings.
  • On 26 October, French President Emmanuel Macron met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and re-iterated his support for the creation of an international military coalition to fight Hamas. This proposal has not received support from any regional leaders; the formation of an international coalition remains highly unlikely.

Oct 26.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 25 October, the tempo and nature of Israeli Air Force (IAF) strikes and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations both in Gaza and along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon remained consistent with the previous 24 hours.
  • However, an overnight IDF raid in Gaza points to the realistic possibility of a delayed ground operation as the IDF continues to prepare its operational environment.
  • The public response to calls by the Nablus-based Lions’ Den militant group to protest will sustain the risk of unrest and clashes in the near term in the West Bank and broader Jerusalem area.
  • Overnight on 25-26 October, the IDF continued to strike Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) infrastructure and positions in Gaza, hitting over 250 targets. Naval forces also struck a Hamas-operated surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch pad in the Khan Yunis area.
  • Also overnight, IDF personnel under the command of the Givati Brigade carried out a targeted raid into northern Gaza. They used tanks to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure, including anti-tank missile launch positions. They have since prepared the area for the next stage of fighting (a likely ground operation). The forces encountered and engaged with Hamas militants.
  • Rockets launched from Gaza towards cities in central Israel have persisted over the past 24 hours; the frequency of launches is on trend with that observed in recent days. While some rockets were intercepted over Tel Aviv, others reportedly hit apartment buildings in Petah Tikva and Rishon LeZion, injuring three civilians.
  • On 25 October, Hamas fired a long-range rocket at Haifa in northern Israel. This is the third time Hamas has fired a long-range rocket at Haifa since 11 October. The R160 rocket exploded in mid-air to the south of the city. There have been no reports of damage or casualties related to any of the launches.
  • On 25 October, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted a strike against the runway at Aleppo International Airport (ALP, Syria) for the fourth time since 7 October. Iranian-backed militants have been moving into areas in Syria bordering the Golan Heights since 24 October; the IDF continues to target infrastructure that enables the transfer of Iranian military equipment and personnel to Syria.
  • Cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued, sustaining concerns of a moderate escalation. Overnight, Hizballah launched a SAM at an IDF drone. This is the second recorded SAM launch by Hizballah since the start of the conflict; the IDF returned fire, targeting the source of the launch. These developments are in line with our assessment that Hizballah is slowly increasing its testing of IDF red lines. We assess that a successful SAM launch against a manned IAF aircraft will result in a forceful IDF response. In such an event, there is a realistic possibility of a major escalation, though current signalling indicates that Hizballah is still reluctant to create a flare-up leading to this scenario.
  • Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank slightly intensified in the past 24 hours. They mainly took place in northern West Bank areas, including in Jenin and the Jalazon refugee camp (to the north-east of Ramallah). In addition, IED attacks continued to target Israeli forces. Overnight, IDF operations across the West Bank resulted in 60 arrests, including 46 suspected Hamas members.
  • There has also been a moderate uptick in domestic unrest across the West Bank, with several demonstrations taking place in Hebron, Nablus and Ramallah. These are likely in response to increasing calls to protest by the Lions’ Den, an Iran-backed West Bank militia based in Nablus. The IDF has responded by deploying additional assets and resources to the West Bank.
  • The Iran-baked Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed two attacks targeting US forces based at Abu Hajar Airport (al-Hasakah governorate, Syria) on 24 and 25 October. Also on 25 October, five missiles were fired at a US base near Rmelan (al-Hasakah). The uptick in attacks is consistent with previous incidents targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria over the past week. We continue to assess that an uptick in attacks in Iraq and Syria is likely in the event of an IDF ground operation into Gaza.
  • Emergency numbers for additional information:

o To report information about kidnapped IDF soldiers and civilians: 1229

o To receive information about missing civilians: 105

o To receive information about missing IDF soldiers: 1111 (press 5 and then 4)

o Home Front Command telephone service centre: 104 (this service provides information about civil defence guidelines, as well as information about traffic and roadblocks along various routes and instructions from government ministries, among other entities)

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • On 26 October, a fifth humanitarian aid convoy entered Gaza through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.  The twelve-truck convoy will moderately relieve food insecurity in southern Gaza but is unlikely to significantly mitigate elevated humanitarian concerns amid widespread fuel shortages. The UN has announced that due to a lack of fuel, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) will suspend food production in Gaza, prioritising water filtration. The IDF continues to block access to fuel imports in Gaza and has repeatedly claimed that Hamas militants are driving fuel shortages by hoarding supplies. Consequently, while the Israeli authorities will likely continue allowing limited humanitarian aid to pass into Gaza in the coming days, it is highly unlikely that this will include fuel supplies.
  • Small-scale protests calling for the release of hostages held by Hamas have continued over the past 24 hours in Tel Aviv. The protests are highly unlikely to influence the release of additional hostages, though there is a realistic possibility that ongoing demonstrations will moderately disrupt transport and mobility through affected areas in the city. Instances of violence and/or counter-protests are highly unlikely.
  • On 25 October, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Israel’s outlook from stable to negative, citing risks linked to the Israel-Hamas war and the potential for regional conflict spillover. While S&P has not altered Israel’s credit rating, this revision follows similar changes to Israel’s economic outlook by Moody’s and Fitch Ratings in the past week. Although Israel’s credit rating is unlikely to change in the coming days, these re-evaluations underscore rising investor concerns regarding the stability of the Israeli economy ahead of an imminent ground offensive in Gaza and elevated regional tensions.
  • On 25 October, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced that the 2023/24 national budget would be amended in the coming days to account for the cost of the Israel-Hamas war. Smotrich stated that the government will spend at least ILS 1 bn (USD 246 m) per day to fund IDF operations in the coming weeks; it will reportedly cut spending in other government departments to avoid developing a large budget deficit. In conjunction with S&P’s revision of Israel’s economic outlook, increased government spending and reduced labour flexibility due to the mobilisation of over 300,000 IDF reservists will likely sustain investor concerns and operational challenges for firms with business in Israel.
  • On 26 October, hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters in Iraq began blocking oil tanker trucks from entering Jordan via the Karameh/Turaibil border crossing in Anbar governorate (Iraq). The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella Shia militia network backed by Iran, has conducted a sit-in at the border crossing since 20 October. However, as of earlier on 26 October, it is calling for protesters to block Iraqi oil exports to countries with peace agreements with Israel, including Jordan. Iraq currently exports approximately 15,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Jordan, highlighting the potential for increasing regional tensions. There is a realistic possibility that the PMF will escalate sit-in activity to further disrupt the movement of goods through the border crossing; violence is therefore possible.
  • On 25 October, Libya’s eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) called for the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) to expel diplomats from states supporting Israel. The HoR specifically called for the departure of diplomats representing France, Italy, the UK and the US. While this statement highlights rising regional tensions as Israel continues to conduct airstrikes against Gaza, it is unlikely to impact diplomatic staff based in Tripoli substantially or to exacerbate the latent tensions between Libya’s parallel eastern and western administrations.

Oct 25.

Executive summary

  • As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues, the primary concerns regarding an escalation of the current fighting will entail a greater involvement by Lebanese Hizballah and/or the US, likely resulting in substantial knock-on effects for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
  • Regional countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are more likely to escalate via diplomatic means rather than through military action, though a heightened deterrence posture vis-à-vis heightened stability risks cannot be ruled out.
  • Direct Iranian forces involvement remains an unlikely scenario at present, though Iranian-affiliated assets, including in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, are likely to increase rhetoric and actions against US and Israeli targets as the Israeli operations against Hamas develop.

Context

On 7 October, the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an air, sea and ground operation into Israeli territory. In response, Israel’s leadership declared war on Hamas, responding with daily airstrikes on Gaza, and mobilising 340,000 reservists in preparation for an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) ground operation into Gaza. This has prompted other actors, including Iran-backed Lebanese Hizballah and Iran, to threaten action against Israel and broaden the fronts of the current fighting. US President Joe Biden’s warning of potential US intervention vis-à-vis support for Israel further signals latent concerns of regional escalation. The conflict remains dynamic and dependent on the involvement/participation of actors, further affecting triggers/indicators and scenarios.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 24 October, the tempo and nature of Israeli Air Force (IAF) strikes and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon remained consistent with the previous 24 hours. Tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Syria are unlikely to represent a trigger for escalation in the near term.
  • Visits by international leaders to Israel are likely to sustain pressure on the government to delay an IDF ground offensive into Gaza in favour of hostage negotiations/releases; Isarel will continue to restrict fuel access to Gaza in order to decrease Hamas’ use of tunnels across the enclave.
  • A ceasefire remains unlikely; this will sustain severe security risks for individuals in Gaza, especially as limited humanitarian aid is passing through the Rafah border crossing.

MILITARY AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Overnight, the IDF continued to target Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) infrastructure and positions in Gaza, including the locations of senior Hamas military commanders. The IDF stated that it killed Taysir Mubasher (the commander of Hamas’ North Khan Younis Battalion) in an overnight airstrike. Mubasher was also the former head of Hamas’ naval forces.
  • On 24 October, the IDF intercepted a Hamas-led infiltration attempt into Israel by sea. A unit of fifteen Hamas divers attempted to infiltrate Israeli naval bases in Zikim and Karmia (Southern district). Israel’s navy repelled the infiltration, killing six Hamas militants; the IDF also struck the facility used by the Hamas squad, as well as a weapons silo.
  • Earlier on 25 October, Hamas launched a long-range rocket towards the southern Israeli city of Eilat. Although there were reportedly no sirens, an explosion was heard in the city. The IDF since confirmed that the rocket landed in an open area. Eilat is the southernmost city in Israel. Many Israeli civilians from the Gaza envelope were evacuated to the city (which borders Egypt) following the 7 October attack.
  • Cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued, sustaining concerns of a moderate escalation. According to reports, Hizballah has increased its targeting of IDF intelligence and communication sites close to the border. Infiltration attempts by small Hizballah squads, as well as rocket and anti-tank guided missile (ATGMs) launches, have continued over the past 24 hours.
  • On 24 October, two rockets were launched towards Israel from Syria; they landed in open areas and caused no damage. The IDF returned artillery fire towards the source of the launches. On 25 October at around 0224 hrs (local time), Israeli fighter jets struck Syrian military infrastructure and mortar positions near Daraa (Daraa governorate). The Syrian state news agency reported that eight Syrian soldiers were killed and seven others were wounded as a result of the strike. The incident is unlikely to reflect a major escalation at present, though it will likely elevate miscalculation and escalation risks.
  • On 24 October, Alwiya al-Waad al-Haq (an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia) announced that it considers US bases in Kuwait and the UAE as legitimate targets. The militia has previously claimed attacks against Gulf states, including an intercepted drone strike against the UAE in February 2022. The announcement points to the spillover risks of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the increasingly serious security implications for US personnel in the region.
  • On the evening of 24 October, two Grad rockets hit Ain al-Assad Airbase (al-Anbar governorate, Iraq); no casualties or damages were reported. The attack was claimed by the Iranian-backed Iraqi Islamic Resistance, which has claimed 15 drone and rocket attacks against US bases in Iraq and Syria since 18 October. The attack reflects a continued uptick in the targeting of US forces in the region by Iranian proxies, elevating security and escalation risks facing related assets.
  • Overnight IDF operations across the West Bank resulted in the arrest of 68 individuals suspected of terrorism, including 58 alleged Hamas members. Operations in the Qalandia refugee camp, near Jerusalem, resulted in violent confrontations with the IDF, including shoot-outs and the use of IEDs. In Jenin, armed militants opened fired against (and threw IEDs at) the IDF, which responded with a drone strike.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • On 24 October, a fourth humanitarian aid convoy entered Gaza via the Rafah border crossing. Nevertheless, access to food, water and medicine remains extremely limited in Gaza, highlighting the seriously precarious humanitarian conditions. The UN has warned that it will be unable to continue its humanitarian operations in Gaza beyond 25 October given the lack of fuel. The Hamas-controlled health ministry also claimed that 12 of Gaza’s 32 clinics and hospitals are no longer operational due to a lack of fuel and damage from airstrikes. The IDF’s continued blockade of Gaza and ongoing restrictions on the movement of humanitarian aid through the Rafah border crossing will almost certainly sustain severe socio-economic health concerns and additional loss of life in the coming days.
  • On 25 October, Czech Prime Minister Peter Fiala and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer will visit Israel. Similar visits from the leaders of France, the UK and the US have reportedly delayed the IDF’s initial mobilisation of its ground offensive into Gaza by increasing international pressure on Israel to continue engaging in hostage negotiations. After two hostages were released on 23 October, negotiations for the release of 50 additional hostages reportedly broke down. However, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed al-Thani stated that negotiations with Hamas are ongoing. While Hamas’ senior leadership announced that the remaining hostages would be released in the event of a unilateral ceasefire, it is highly unlikely that Israel will concede to these demands. Even so, there is a realistic possibility that a limited number of hostages will be released in the coming days, further delaying the ground offensive. Hamas’ senior leadership will also likely attempt to leverage hostage releases to gain concessions from the IDF, such as access to fuel and humanitarian aid in Gaza.
  • On 25 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cancelled a prospective trip to Israel, accusing Israel of crimes against humanity in Gaza. Erdoğan also stated that he does not consider Hamas to be a terrorist organisation; this contradicts many of Turkey’s NATO allies, which have designated Hamas and its military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, as terrorist groups. The announcement comes after Erdoğan’s communications directorate denied reports that the leader of Hamas’ political bureau was ordered to leave Istanbul (Turkey). Rather, it claims that several members of the political bureau were simply asked to leave following Hamas’ attacks on 7 October. The statement underscores deteriorating relations between Turkey and Israel and will likely significantly reduce Turkish efforts to act as a mediator in the ongoing conflict. Heightened tensions between Turkey and its NATO allies will also likely persist in the coming days.
  • On 25 October, the Hizballah-controlled Al-Manar news channel reported that Hizballah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, met with Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut. The meeting reportedly focused on developments in Gaza and Hizballah’s clashes with the IDF on the Israel-Lebanon border. The meeting highlights the high degree of tactical and strategic co-ordination between the three organisations as part of the Iranian-backed ‘axis of resistance’. Co-ordination between the three groups will almost certainly continue in the coming weeks, with Hamas and PIJ organising rocket strikes from Gaza to maximise damage to nearby IDF locations. Hizballah militants will likely continue engaging the IDF in northern Israel to draw personnel and resources away from the imminent ground offensive into Gaza.
  • On 24 October, Saudi Arabia evacuated all its embassy staff and their families from Beirut (Lebanon).  The US embassy in Beirut took similar steps last week amid an uptick in clashes between the IDF and Hizballah militants in southern Lebanon. These evacuations highlight heightened concerns over security threats in Lebanon as clashes in the vicinity of its southern border continue.
  • On 25 October, Israel’s ambassador to the UN announced that Israel would refuse visas to UN officials following Secretary-General António Guterres’ speech in the Security Council. In the speech, Guterres stated that Hamas’ attacks on 7 October did not occur ‘in a vacuum’ and indirectly criticised Israel’s evacuation order for residents of northern Gaza. This underscores heightened tensions between Israel and the UN, and will likely undermine mediation efforts by UN officials as the conflict continues.
  • On 26 October, EU leaders will meet in Brussels (Belgium) to co-ordinate the bloc’s policy on the Israel-Hamas war. The meeting will likely result in the EU calling for a ‘humanitarian pause’ to allow for aid deliveries and to facilitate the release of additional hostages. Conversely, officials from Canada and the US have warned against calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, claiming that this will enable Hamas to further entrench its positions, particularly in northern Gaza. Consequently, Israel is highly unlikely to heed calls for a humanitarian pause and/or a ceasefire, sustaining significant security and safety risks for individuals in Gaza.

*Israel-Syria: Major escalation is unlikely following IAF airstrike on Syrian targets. On 24 October, two rockets launched from Syria landed in open areas in Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) returned artillery fire towards the source of the launches. Later, Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets struck Syrian military infrastructure and mortar positions at 0224hrs (local time) near Daraa (Daraa governorate). According to Syrian news, eight Syrian soldiers were killed and seven others were injured as a result of the strike. The rockets fired towards Israel were likely launched by Iranian-affiliated militias, which have increased their activity in Syria since 7 October; they are targeting US forces more frequently and reportedly moving towards the border with Israel. The IAF strike will likely serve as a warning to the Syrian government, signalling that Israel will hold the regime in Damascus responsible for any launch from its territory. While the low number of rockets launched from Syria is unlikely to prompt a major escalation immediately, Israel’s response will possibly result in increased Syrian surface-to-air missile (SAM) activity, elevating miscalculation and escalation risks.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 23 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to carry out joint strikes against multiple targets in Gaza; arrests were also made in the West Bank.
  • The release of two additional hostages by Hamas and the ongoing visit to Israel and the West Bank by French President Emmanuel Macron are likely to delay an IDF ground operation in the coming 24-48 hours.
  • The IDF intercepted two drones flying from Lebanon towards an area north of Haifa (Israel); the incident is unlikely to represent an escalation in the ongoing clashes along the Israel-Lebanon border, which have remained consistent with trends observed in recent days.
  • The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) continued to conduct joint strikes against Hamas positions and infrastructure across Gaza over the past 24 hours, hitting over 400 targets. Overnight, IDF tanks, artillery units and helicopters jointly struck Hamas anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) launching positions and military infrastructure. In addition, Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets continued to strike targets in the al-Shati, Daraj Tuffah, Jabalia, Shujaiyya and Zeitoun neighbourhoods, among others.
  • Overnight, IAF aircraft scattered leaflets across Gaza. The flyers state that Israel promises to try to maintain the security and safety of Gazan citizens; they also offer financial rewards in return for information on hostages. The leaflets, which were also published on the official Twitter channels of IDF spokespersons, include details for secure communication via WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal and by phone. This is a regular tactic employed by the IDF to acquire further information concerning Gaza. However, Gazan citizens who are perceived to be co-operating with Israel risk being exposed to retaliation by Hamas.
  • Since our last update, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have continued to fire rockets towards Israel, though with longer intervals between launches. This reduced frequency is in line with our previous assessment that Gaza-based groups will likely ration supplies in preparation for armed confrontations in the longer term, as well as the impending IDF ground operation.
  • The IDF and Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, arrested 32 people (including 18 suspected Hamas members) during overnight operations in the West Bank. The arrests reportedly included a senior Hamas figure. During one of the operations in Burqa village in the northern West Bank, an IED was thrown at IDF forces, moderately injuring a reservist. Hamas’ efforts to ignite mass mobilisation across the West Bank have been largely unsuccessful; one protest was recorded on 23 October, while 11 were registered on 20 October.
  • Low-intensity clashes between Lebanese Hizballah and IDF forces along the Israel-Lebanon border have continued over the past 24 hours. The IDF struck Hizballah infrastructure, including an observation post, in response to rockets launched from Lebanon, as well as a drone incursion. Additionally, an IDF drone struck a militant cell in the Har Dov area (Lebanon) that was attempting to launch rockets into Israel. Drone incursions into Israeli airspace are becoming more frequent; they are likely aimed at gathering intelligence on Israeli forces and testing IDF air defence systems and response timings.
  • On 23 October, the Iran-affiliated Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that they targeted US bases in Syria with drones. The bases are located in the al-Omar oil field (Deir ez-Zor governorate) and near al-Shaddadah (al-Hasakah governorate). The group is responsible for the continued uptick of attacks against US bases in the last seven days, underscoring the knock-on effects of the Israel-Hamas war.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • Throughout 23 October, 20 aid trucks entered Gaza through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Nevertheless, food, water and fuel supplies remain critically low in Gaza, driving elevated humanitarian concerns. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) announced that its shelters in southern Gaza are reportedly operating at 2.5 times their regular capacity, while eight of Gaza’s 23 hospitals have shut due to a lack of supplies. Additional humanitarian aid convoys will likely pass through the Rafah border crossing in the coming 24 hours. However, the crossing remains closed for civilians, preventing individuals (including dual nationals) from leaving Gaza.
  • On 23 October, Hamas released two hostages following mediation efforts led by Egypt and Qatar. This follows the release of two Israeli-US hostages late on 20 October. Hamas continues to hold more than 200 hostages in Gaza, including British, French and US nationals. Negotiations for the release of 50 additional hostages reportedly broke down in the past 24 hours. Although Hamas’ senior leadership stated that the remaining hostages would be released in the event of a unilateral ceasefire, it is highly unlikely that Israel will concede to these demands. The US authorities continue to call for a delay to the beginning of the IDF ground offensive to facilitate further negotiations on the release of hostages.
  • On 23 October, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Israel for an official visit. Macron will meet later on 24 October with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog, before travelling to Ramallah (the West Bank) to meet with Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. These meetings will likely further delay an IDF ground operation. There is also a realistic possibility of elevated domestic unrest during Macron’s visit, particularly in Jerusalem and Ramallah.
  • The Central Bank of Israel announced that it will keep interest rates at 4.75% in an effort to stabilise markets and reduce uncertainty over monetary policy. The bank also revised its economic forecast of 3% economic growth in 2023/24 to 2.3% and 2.8% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. Following Hamas’ attack on 7 October, the Israeli shekel (ILS) has depreciated by 5% against the US dollar (USD), highlighting increasing economic uncertainty driven by the ongoing hostilities. While borrowing costs will likely remain steady in the coming months, further currency fluctuations are likely, elevating financial risks for firms with operations in Israel.
  • On 26 October, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Washington DC (US), where he will meet with his US counterpart Anthony Blinken to discuss the Israel-Hamas war. The visit comes after China announced the deployment of six warships to the Eastern Mediterranean region. These Chinese naval assets, which departed Muscat (Oman) on 14 October, have likely been deployed to assist with the potential evacuation of Chinese nationals from Israel and the Palestinian Territories in the event of further conflict escalation. It is highly unlikely that China will directly intervene in the ongoing conflict; it will likely pursue a diplomatic approach to position itself as a mediator between the affected parties.

Oct 23.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Since our last update at 1700hrs (BST) on 22 October, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to conduct air strikes against the Gaza Strip, as well limited ground raids; the main IDF ground operation remains imminent, despite disagreements among the Israeli political and military leadership.
  • Low-intensity confrontations between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have persisted along the Israel-Lebanon border. While a major escalation remains unlikely, unconfirmed reports of Iran-linked assets in Syria mobilising in the vicinity of the border with Israel will sustain heightened stability risks and result in additional air strikes against Syria.
  • Although humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza through the Rafah border crossing have continued for a third day, the socio-economic and health situation in the enclave remains severe.
  • The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued to carry out airstrikes across the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, striking over 320 targets. Over the weekend, the IDF continued to urge residents in northern Gaza, particularly those in al-Daraj, al-Zaytoun, Nasser, the Old City and Sheikh Radwan, to evacuate to southern Gaza and the humanitarian area in al-Mawasi.
  • Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) are continuing to fire rockets towards Israel, though with longer intervals between launches. This reduced frequency is in line with our previous assessment that Gaza-based groups will likely ration supplies in preparation for armed confrontations in the long term and uncertainty regarding the impending IDF ground operation.
  • IDF operations overnight in the West Bank included an airstrike against an underground tunnel in Jenin. The strike is unlikely to signal a major escalation. Furthermore, a total of 64 individuals, 34 of whom are suspected Hamas members, were arrested overnight. Clashes between the IDF and Palestinian militants continued across the West Bank, notably in Qabatiya, near Jenin, where incidents involved IEDs and small arms fire against IDF forces. Additional clashes were reported in Jenin and Nablus. A small skirmish involved stones being thrown at IDF forces in Bethlehem earlier on 23 October.
  • On 22 October, the IAF reportedly struck Aleppo (ALP) and Damascus (DAM) international airports. Together, these strikes constitute the third such incident since 7 October (attacks previously took place on 12 and 14 October). As a result, flights were reportedly diverted to Bassel Al-Assad International Airport (LTK) near Latakia (Latakia governorate), elevating the likelihood of an IAF strike targeting this facility as well.
  • Over the weekend there was a continued uptick in the targeting of US forces in Syria by Iran-affiliated militias. On 23 October, US forces reportedly shot down drones targeting al-Tanf base (Homs governorate). This is the second time the base has been targeted in the last five days; al-Asad airbase (al-Anbar governorate) was targeted on 19 and 22 October. The drone attacks reflect the elevated security risks for US forces and military assets in the region due to the Israel-Hams war.
  • Unconfirmed reports via regional resources underscore a mobilisation uptick by Iranian-affiliated forces in the vicinity of Syria’s border with Israel over the past 48 hours. The forces have reportedly not co-ordinated with the Syrian government and are being supervised by Lebanese Hizballah. If this mobilisation is verified, it would point to the realistic possibility of a major escalation along Israel’s northern borders.
  • On 22 October, an IDF tank accidentally struck an Egyptian military post in the vicinity of Kerem Shalom near the Israel-Egypt border; several Egyptian border guards were reportedly injured. At the time of writing, the IDF is investigating the incident; it has released an official apology to Egypt. The incident is unlikely to result in diplomatic tensions and/or any bilateral fallout.
  • Low-intensity clashes between Lebanese Hizballah and IDF forces along the Israel-Lebanon border have continued over the past 72 hours. In a first, Hizballah used a surface-to-air missile (SAM) to target an IDF drone on 22 October. Both the IDF and IAF have continued to strike Hizballah positions and infrastructure in response to this launch, as well as in retaliation for other rocket launches towards Israel.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • The Egyptian Red Crescent stated that it is delivering its third round of aid into Gaza via the Rafah border crossing, which remains operational at the time of writing. However, it remains unclear how much humanitarian aid will enter the enclave today. A total of 34 trucks entering the Gaza Strip over the weekend. The EU High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has called for expedited aid deliveries indicating that the EU bloc is in discussions regarding a ‘humanitarian pause’. However, the likelihood of a ceasefire remains limited at present, sustaining concerns over the continued deterioration of the socio-economic and health outlook in Gaza.
  • The US government reportedly urged Israel to delay its ground operation in Gaza on 22 October, so as to allow time for negotiations to ensure the release of hostages held by Hamas. As previously assessed , the release of two US hostages by Hamas late on 20 October has likely added increased diplomatic pressure on the Israeli leadership, despite the IDF ground operation being operationally ready to start.
  • Late on 21 October, the US stated that it will deploy a battery of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) and Patriot battalions to defend US forces across the Middle East. The shift aims to deter Iranian ballistic missile activity amid an increase in Iranian proxy attacks in Iraq and Syria. In the short term, further proxy attacks against US military personnel and assets remain likely. Similarly, demonstrations are likely to persist outside US embassies throughout the region, sustaining security and bystander risks. The decision moderately increases the likelihood that US forces will engage in ballistic missile defence operations. There is a realistic possibility that the US will carry out strikes against Hizballah’s positions in Lebanon should the group engage in the Israel-Hamas war. However, an intervention by US troops on the ground is highly unlikely in the near term.
  • On 22 October, the US State Department issued a directive for the departure of family members of US diplomats and non-essential personnel from Iraq due to heightened security risks. This comes in response to a series of targeted drone attacks against US forces based in Iraq by Iranian-aligned Iraqi factions. Furthermore, US government employees in Baghdad are strongly advised against using Baghdad International Airport (BGW). No additional strikes against US bases across Iraq were recorded overnight following the announcement.
  • Earlier on 23 October, a Knesset bill postponing municipal elections from 31 October to 30 January 2024 was approved for a second and third reading. The bill will almost certainly pass its second and third readings, delaying elections amid heightened domestic displacement and security volatility in Israel. Several tent cities have been constructed over the past few days, including the Kfar Maccabiah complex in Ramat Gan (which can host around 1,000 people). According to a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, over 200,000 people have been internally displaced by the conflict. Additional temporary housing facilities are likely to be built, particularly due to the expansion of evacuation orders for Israeli population centres in northern areas.
  • On 22 October, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian reportedly spoke with the leaders of Hamas and PIJ, underscoring the likelihood of continued co-ordination. Over the past 24 hours, Amir-Abdollahian continued to emphasise that if Israel continues to conduct airstrikes against Gaza or to proceed with the planned ground offensive, there will be significant regional implications, including the potential for conflict spillover. Nevertheless, we continue to assess it is highly unlikely that Iranian forces will directly intervene in the Israel-Hamas war. Rather, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will continue supporting its large network of proxy militias, including Hamas, PIJ and Lebanese Hizballah, while co-ordinating a managed escalation of clashes along the Israel-Lebanon border in an attempt to divert IDF resources from Gaza.
  • On 23 October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Tehran (Iran) for talks with regional counterparts focusing on elevated tensions in the Middle East and the Caucuses. While the meeting will likely focus on facilitating discussions between Armenian and Azeri representatives regarding disputes over Nagorno-Karabakh (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 6 October 2023), it is highly likely that discussions regarding the Israel-Hamas war will also take place. The talks highlight increasingly close relations between Iran and Russia; there is a realistic possibility that further engagements will facilitate enhanced co-operation on diplomatic and military matters over the coming weeks.

*US: Increased force posture in Middle East underscores risk to US personnel, assets. I90On 21 October, the Department of Defense announced that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group to the CENTCOM area of responsibility in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. This follows the decision to position the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group in the Eastern Mediterranean. Austin has also deployed a battery of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system and Patriot battalions to defend US forces across the Middle East. Additional troops have been ordered to prepare to deploy as a contingency. The shift aims to deter Iranian ballistic missile activity amid an increase in Iranian proxy attacks in Iraq and Syria. Notably, a drone and rocket attack targeted Ain al-Asad airbase in al-Anbar Governorate (Iraq) on 19 October. In the short term, further proxy attacks against US military personnel and assets are likely. Demonstrations are likely to persist outside US embassies throughout the region. The development moderately increases the likelihood that US forces will engage in ballistic missile defence operations. There is a realistic possibility that the US will carry out strikes against Hizbollah positions in Lebanon should the group engage in the Israel-Hamas war. However, an intervention by US troops on the ground is highly unlikely in the near term. (Source: Sibylline)

 

30 Oct 23. Fierce clashes in Gaza as Israeli forces expand ground offensive.

  • Summary
  • Companies
  • 20 Palestinians killed in overnight clashes in Gaza with Israeli forces – Palestinian medical officials
  • Over 600 targets hit in Gaza – Israeli military
  • Four Palestinians killed in Israeli raid on West Bank – Palestinian health ministry
  • Israel hits northern Gaza with fierce air, artillery strikes

GAZA, Oct 30 (Reuters) – Palestinians in Gaza reported fierce air and artillery strikes early on Monday as Israeli troops backed by tanks pressed into the enclave with a ground assault that prompted more international calls for civilians to be protected.

Israel’s military said it had struck over 600 militant targets over the past few days as it continued to expand ground operations in the Gaza Strip, where Palestinian civilians are in dire need of fuel, food and clean water as the conflict enters its fourth week.

“IDF troops killed dozens of terrorists who barricaded themselves in buildings and tunnels, and attempted to attack the troops,” the military said in a statement.

Israeli air strikes hit areas near Gaza’s Al-Shifa and Al-Quds hospitals, and Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces in a border area east of the city of Khan Younis in the south, Palestinian media said.

Medical officials in Gaza said at least 20 Palestinians had been killed and dozens wounded overnight as Israeli ground forces pushed into the coastal enclave from multiple directions.

Residents said they could hear shooting and explosions all night. Islamist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad said their members were engaged in fighting with Israeli forces in Gaza as well as the West Bank city of Jenin.

Reuters was not able to independently confirm the reports.

Israel released images of battle tanks on the west coast of the enclave, signalling a potential effort to surround Gaza’s main city two days after the Israeli government ordered expanded ground incursions. Some pictures posted online also appeared to show Israeli soldiers waving an Israeli flag deep inside Gaza. Reuters could not verify the images.

Israel’s self-declared “second phase” of a three-week war against Iranian-backed Hamas militants has been largely kept from public view, with forces moving under darkness and a telecommunications blackout cutting off Palestinians.

The phone and internet cuts appeared to ease on Sunday, but telecoms provider Paltel said Israeli air strikes had again knocked out internet and phone service in parts of Gaza’s northern sections, where Hamas has command centres.

The outages have severely hampered rescue operations for casualties of the Israeli barrages.

The reported strikes near hospitals came after the Palestinian Red Crescent said on Sunday it had received warnings from Israeli authorities to immediately evacuate Al-Quds hospital, where some 14,000 people have sought shelter.

Israel has accused Hamas of locating command centres and other military infrastructure in Gaza hospitals, which the group denies.

Palestinian officials said about 50,000 people had also taken shelter in Al-Shifa Hospital, adding that they were concerned about Israeli threats to the facility.

Israel has tightened its blockade and bombardment of Gaza since Hamas gunmen stormed into Israel on Oct. 7. Israeli authorities say the militants killed some 1,400 people and took at least 239 hostages.

The military has also stepped up operations against Islamist groups in the West Bank, killing scores of Palestinians and arresting hundreds.

Israeli security forces killed four people during a raid in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin early on Monday, the Palestinian health ministry said.

CALLS FOR A PAUSE

The stepped-up attacks coincided with a mounting international outcry for a “humanitarian pause” to allow aid in.

Qatar-mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas continued on Sunday, a source briefed on the talks told Reuters, and included discussions about the possible release of hostages.

Hamas wants a five-day humanitarian pause in Israel’s operations to allow aid and fuel into the besieged Gaza Strip in return for the release of all civilian hostages held by the militants, said the source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

More than half the hostages held by Hamas have foreign passports from 25 countries, including 54 Thai nationals, according to the Israeli government.

On Monday, the United Nations Security Council is due to be briefed on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The 15-member body has unsuccessfully voted four times in the past two weeks on draft resolutions that aimed to take action on the war, but the 193-member U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly on Friday to call for an immediate humanitarian truce.

U.S. President Joe Biden pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a call on Sunday to protect civilians in Gaza and “immediately and significantly increase the flow of humanitarian aid”, the White House said.

Colonel Elad Goren of COGAT, the Israeli defence ministry agency that co-ordinates with the Palestinians, said Israel will allow a dramatic increase in aid to Gaza in the next few days and Palestinian civilians should head to a “humanitarian zone” in the south of the tiny territory.

Medical authorities in Gaza, which has a population of 2.3 million people, said on Sunday 8,005 people – including 3,324 minors – had been killed.

The Hamas-run Gaza government’s media office said 116 medics and 35 journalists have been killed since the conflict erupted.

Reuters was unable to independently verify these figures.

Israel has vowed to annihilate Hamas, a task it described as necessitating protracted ground assaults in, around and under Gaza City, where the militants have an extensive subterranean bunker network.

There are fears too that the war will spill over into the region, including in Lebanon, where the Israeli army and Iranian-backed Hezbollah group have been exchanging fire.

On Monday, Syrian state TV said Israeli air strikes targeted two army posts in Daraa, leading to “some material losses”.

The conflict has spurred large demonstrations worldwide in support of the Palestinians. On Sunday several thousand people rallied in Beirut to show solidarity with Gaza.

Russian authorities said police had taken over an airport in the predominantly Muslim Dagestan region and arrested 60 people after hundreds of anti-Israel protesters stormed the facility on Sunday when a plane from Israel arrived.

(Source: Reuters)

 

26 Oct 23. Israel bombards Gaza as Putin warns conflict could spread beyond Middle East.

  • Summary
  • Israel ground forces make big incursion into Gaza, withdraw
  • Russia’s Putin warns conflict could spread beyond Middle East
  • Palestinians bury unidentified dead in mass graves

Israel bombarded the Gaza Strip as it prepared for a ground invasion it says is aimed at annihilating the Palestinian militant group Hamas as Russia warned the conflict could spread beyond the Middle East.

In besieged Gaza humanitarian supplies were critically low, as world powers failed to agree on a lull to the fighting to deliver aid, and residents buried the dead in mass graves as the civilian toll mounted.

In an indication Israel was widening assaults into Gaza that began at the weekend, the military said ground forces attacked multiple targets in the Hamas-ruled enclave on Thursday before withdrawing, in what Army Radio described as the biggest incursion of the current war.

U.S. President Joe Biden, in remarks looking beyond the war, said on Wednesday that the future should include Israeli and Palestinian states side by side.

“Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity and in peace,” Biden said at a joint press conference in Washington with visiting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Biden said he believed one reason Iranian-backed Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing at least 1,400 people and taking scores of hostages, was to prevent normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the conflict could spread beyond the Middle East and said it was wrong that innocent women, children and old people in Gaza were being punished for other people’s crimes.

“Our task today, our main task, is to stop the bloodshed and violence,” said Putin in a meeting with Russian religious leaders of different faiths, according to a Kremlin transcript.

“Otherwise, further escalation of the crisis is fraught with grave and extremely dangerous and destructive consequences. And not only for the Middle East region. It could spill over far beyond the borders of the Middle East.”

Reflecting concerns the Gaza war may spread, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had agreed to delay invading Gaza until U.S. air defence systems can be placed in the region, as early as this week, to protect American forces.

Asked about the report, U.S. officials told Reuters that Washington has raised its concerns with Israel that Iran and Iranian-backed Islamist groups could escalate the conflict by attacking U.S. troops in the Middle East. An Israeli incursion into Gaza could be a trigger for Iranian proxies, they said.

Gaza’s war has already sparked conflict beyond the Palestinian territories. Israeli warplanes struck Syrian army infrastructure on Wednesday in response to rockets fired from Syria, an ally of Iran. Israel has also targeted Syria’s Aleppo airport and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran, Israel’s arch-enemy, has sought regional ascendancy for decades and backs armed groups in Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere as well as Hamas. It has warned Israel to stop its onslaught on Gaza.

AID PROPOSALS FAIL IN UN SECURITY COUNCIL VOTES

At the United Nations, Russia and China vetoed a U.S.-drafted Security Council resolution calling for pauses in hostilities to allow food, water and medicine to be delivered to Palestinian civilians. The United Arab Emirates also voted no, while 10 members voted in favour and two abstained.

Russia made a rival proposal that advocated a wider ceasefire, but failed to win the minimum number of votes. Israel has resisted both, arguing that Hamas would only take advantage and create new threats to Gaza civilians.

As the death toll mounts in Gaza, Palestinians are burying the unidentified dead in mass graves, with a number instead of a name, residents say. Some families are using bracelets in the hope of finding their loved ones should they be killed.

Israeli retaliatory strikes have killed over 6,500 people, the health ministry in the Hamas-run strip said on Wednesday. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the casualty figures of either side.

Biden said on Wednesday he had “no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using” for the death toll, but he did not say why he was skeptical.

In the U.S., the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) said it was “deeply disturbed” by Biden’s comments on the Gaza figures, and called on the president to apologise.

INVASION PREPARATIONS

Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas, which rules Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement that Israel was “preparing for a ground invasion. I will not elaborate on when, how or how many.”

Israeli tanks and troops are massed on the border with Gaza awaiting orders. Israel has called up 360,000 reservists.

International pressure is growing to delay any invasion of Gaza, not least because of hostages. More than half the estimated 220 hostages held by Hamas have foreign passports from 25 different countries, the Israeli government said. Many were believed to have had dual Israeli nationality. (Source: Reuters)

 

20 Oct 23. Israeli Merkava 4 tanks get additional ‘protective canopy’ protection against drones and loitering munitions. Photos released on social media reveal that the Israeli Defence Force is proactively equipping its Merkava 4 tanks with so-called ‘Cope Cage’ protective canopies mounted on the turret, aimed at defeating ‘top attack’ profile drones and loitering munitions.

Apparently taking at least partial inspiration from analysing current operations in Ukraine, the IDF solution offsets at least some of the vulnerability large armoured vehicles have to such attacks. The thinner armour on the top surface of tanks makes the ‘top attack’ profile particularly attractive to adversaries, and this type of partial fix has become almost de rigueur among forces engaging in active conflict, in both conventional and asymmetric warfare scenarios. Even unarmed ISR drones pose a threat with their ability to detect, identify and locate high value targets and cue artillery or LM attacks to them.

Counter-UAS strategies and tactics do not depend solely on active measures such as drone interception and neutralisation – passive measures that interfere with potential attacks and mitigate their effects are also legitimate considerations for the counter-UAS community.

For more information: Israeli Merkava 4 Tanks Get Anti-Drone Cages After Russian-Ukrainian Lessons | weapons defence industry military technology UK | analysis focus army defence military industry army (armyrecognition.com) (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

 

25 Oct 23. F-16s Head to Middle East to Help Protect U.S. Troops. The Pentagon announced that a squadron of F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft has arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility today. The aircraft will work alongside an array of capabilities the Defense Department has sent to the region in recent days to further enhance the ability of U.S. forces to defend themselves.

Since Hamas attacked Israel Oct. 7, militia groups backed by Iran have, on more than a dozen occasions, attacked U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism missions in both Iraq and Syria.

“We know that the groups conducting these attacks are supported by the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the Iranian regime,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a briefing today. “What we are seeing is the prospect for more significant escalation against U.S. forces and personnel across the region, in the very near term, coming from Iranian proxy forces and ultimately from Iran.”

In response, this past weekend, the department deployed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group to Centcom, and directed to the region a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery from Fort Bliss, Texas, and additional Patriot missile battalions from both Fort Liberty, North Carolina, and Fort Sill, Oklahoma.

The aircraft movement announced today involves F-16s from the New Jersey Air National Guard’s 119th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron.

A variety of military units have been put on prepare-to-deploy orders, though none of those have yet been activated, he said.

The effort to protect U.S. forces in the region is one of three primary objectives the department has focused on since the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. Ryder said the department is also focused on supporting Israel’s right to defend itself from terrorist attacks and deterring a broader conflict in the region.

To assist Israel in its defense he said the U.S. has rushed in security assistance to enable Israel Defense Forces to restore security and protect the Israeli people.

“As we’ve highlighted, this includes capabilities requested by Israel, to include precision guided munitions, small diameter bombs, artillery, ammunition, Iron Dome interceptors and other critical equipment. We continue to stay in close contact with our Israeli partners on their defense needs and remain committed to the security of Israel,” Ryder said.

The department has also provided advisors to Israel to help officials there mitigate civilian casualties as they conduct their military planning. Those advisors, Ryder noted, have deep experience in urban combat.

“Since [the] Hamas terrorist attack, we’ve also been crystal clear that we do not want to see the situation in Israel [widen] into a broader regional conflict,” he said. ” … Our message to any country or group thinking about trying to take advantage of this situation to widen the conflict is: Don’t.” (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/US DoD)

————————————————————————-

Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Home land Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

————————————————————————-