NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Oct 22.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued launching multiple strikes on targets in Gaza, with renewed rocket barrages targeting southern and central Israel in return. The frequency of cross-border attacks from Gaza has remained consistent with the tempo observed between 20-21 October. Meanwhile, a member of Hamas’ Nukhba commando forces was captured by the IDF in an attempt to return to Gaza. Further clashes between Palestinians and the IDF or Israeli settlers have taken place in the West Bank, including Jenin, Nablus, Huwara and the al-Arruob refugee camp.
There was a further intensification of rocket/missile attacks between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and/or LH-affiliated forces over the past 24 hours. Since 21 October, LH and LH-affiliated forces have conducted over 11 attacks, including the use of ATGMs and guided missiles targetting IDF assets and positions (comprising electronic sensor positions), such as near Baram. IDF forces have also struck multiple LH positions along the border with Lebanon, including near Hula. Plans have been put in place to evacuate another 14 communities in northern Israel.

24-HOUR FORECAST

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) will almost certainly sustain rocket fire targeting southern and central Israel, with Israeli air strikes on Gaza unlikely to reduce in the next 24 hours. Fuel was reportedly delivered on 22 October, with 17 trucks of humanitarian aid in total passing through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Israel denies the claims, having repeatedly stated that fuel would not be allowed until the release of all hostages in Gaza, sustaining concerns over the stability of the agreement to keep the crossing open. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) stated on 22 October that it would run out of fuel supplies in three days.

The IDF has maintained the readiness of its assets and personnel along Gaza’s northern border ahead of a ground offensive that is now operationally prepared. Once operations are authorised, we continue to assess that the IDF is most likely to launch the offensive during the night, taking advantage of superior night-fighting capabilities and maintaining an element of surprise (for additional details, see Sibylline Israel Conflict Update – 21 October 2023). The recent regional US force posture change, including the deployment of a THAAD battery and additional Patriot battalions, is unlikely to impact current considerations by Israeli leadership to proceed with the operation. Developments also highlight the spillover effects amid an increase in drone attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria and an uptick in Iranian proxy activity.

An uptick in hostilities between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces across the West Bank is highly likely in the coming 24 hours, given Hamas’ mobilisation calls today (22 October). There is an elevated risk of clashes, particularly in Jenin, Nablus, Hebron and Tulkarem, as well as in the broader Jerusalem area, including the Shuafat refugee camp. There is a persistent risk of confrontations resulting in substantial casualties, further exacerbating ethno-religious tensions and elevating the risk of attacks in the near term.

We continue to assess that while clashes between the IDF and Hizballah will almost certainly continue over the coming 24 hours, an attempt by Hizballah to launch a full-scale invasion of northern Israel remains unlikely at present. Instead, Hizballah’s elevated activity on the Israel-Lebanon border likely aims to divert IDF resources away from a highly likely eventual ground offensive in Gaza. Hizballah militants will likely continue primarily targeting military installations. However, there is a realistic possibility that missile/rocket launches will increasingly target civilian sites, with an uptick in rocket/missile launches from Lebanon almost certain in the event of an IDF ground operation in Gaza.

Oct 21.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck at multiple targets in northern Gaza overnight on 20-21 October, with renewed rocket barrages targeting southern and central Israel. Israeli officials have stated that several hospitals in northern Gaza have yet to be evacuated despite repeated calls to vacate the premises, stating that Hamas is using the buildings for cover. In the West Bank, the IDF has arrested 68 Hamas members while also reportedly raiding the home of senior Hamas leader Saleh el-Aruri, with continued violent confrontations recorded between Palestinians and Israeli forces, including near Abu Dis in close proximity to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, trucks carrying humanitarian aid have passed through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and entered the southern portion of the enclave.
There was a further intensification of airstrikes and rocket/missile attacks between the IDF and Hizballah and/or Hizballah-affiliated forces based in Lebanon over the past 24 hours. Hizballah has conducted at least 18 attacks in this period, the most intense frequency observed since the start of the conflict. The Margaliot area in northern Israel has continued to represent a recurring target for Hizballah rocket fire, with two Thai workers reportedly injured in a recent missile attack. Hizballah also targeted IDF positions with anti-tank guided missiles near Natua and Barnit in response to IDF shelling into southern Lebanon.

24-HOUR FORECAST

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) will almost certainly sustain rocket fire targeting southern and central Israel. The re-opening of the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza for the passage of humanitarian aid earlier today, 21 October, is unlikely to substantially mitigate the likely unrest/protest mobilisation after the earlier Hamas calls or reduce the rate of cross-border rocket fire from Gaza. The Egyptian authorities have confirmed that the border is open on a restricted basis, with at least 20 trucks passing through, allowing only for the supply of food, water and medical supplies. Reportedly, aid officials do not expect further convoys until Monday (23 October).

The IDF continues to train personnel along Gaza’s northern border ahead of a ground offensive that is now operationally ready and highly likely to move at any point in the next 24 hours. There is likely high pressure on the Israeli war cabinet to proceed with the operation, especially given that international leaders visiting over the past few days are no longer in the country. However, the Qatar-mediated Hamas release of two American hostages has a realistic possibility of further delaying an ‘imminent’ ground operation vis-à-vis the continued US diplomatic pressure by officials to prevent a further escalation and secure the additional release of hostages.

Once operations are authorised, we continue to assess that the IDF is most likely to launch a night-time attack, timed in order to maximise cover of darkness when closing rapidly on initial objectives. This will allow the IDF to take advantage of their superior night-fighting capabilities to create shock and surprise, especially during the initial break-in to Gaza. This also minimises the ability of adversaries to use commercial drones to gain information or target attacking forces. The break-in is likely to be accompanied by heavy supporting strikes on any and all potential firing positions that would threaten IDF advances, including potentially the extensive use of deception to keep Hamas off-balance. Targeted raids against any locations identified by intelligence, particularly sites where hostages are considered likely to be present, are also likely to represent a substantial facet of the initial operations. The IDF’s overall initial objective is likely to ensure that by daybreak, forces are in an advantageous position to continue operations against increasing resistance, having caused maximum disruption to their adversaries’ cohesion and capabilities. However, this is a complex operation, likely to take weeks or months in a very challenging environment, and tactics and operational objectives will likely constantly change as the offensive develops.

Clashes will likely intensify between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces across the West Bank in light of Hamas’ recent mobilisation calls. There is an elevated risk of clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians, particularly in Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarem, as well as in the broader Jerusalem area. There is a persistent risk of confrontations resulting in casualties, further exacerbating currently heightened ethno-religious tensions in the near term.

Oct 20.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 19 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck Lebanese Hizballah positions in response to 30 rocket launches by Hamas operatives in Lebanon targeting Israel. However, major escalation between the IDF and Hizballah remains unlikely.
• Houthi missiles (likely targeting Israel) were intercepted by US naval assets; this signals preparedness for regional escalation, as well as US resolution to deter any such uptick.
• Hamas’ call for ‘days of rage’ during the weekend will elevate unrest in the West Bank, as well as global security risks; this includes an increased risk of attacks against Western targets.
• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued to carry out airstrikes across the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, reportedly hitting at least three towers in the al-Zahra area. The IAF will almost certainly continue to strike the Gaza Strip in the coming 24 hours.
• Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) continued to fire rockets towards Israel, though they are reportedly rationing rockets and increasingly prioritising the targeting of Israeli military positions. Hamas and PIJ are likely to continue saving rockets in order to prolong their rocket campaign and retain their capacity to launch larger barrages to coincide with moments of escalation such as the launch of an IDF ground operation into Gaza.
• IDF drones struck armed militants in Nur Shams in the West Bank during overnight operations. Armed clashes between the IDF and armed militants in this vicinity lasted for around 12 hours; in all, 13 Palestinians and one IDF soldier were killed in the clashes.
• Violent unrest across the West Bank and in border areas was recorded overnight, prompting Israeli troops to employ force on a frequent basis. In the West Bank, flashpoints for unrest included Nur Shams and Ramallah (an armoured vehicle was reportedly deployed to the latter). In Umm al-Fahm, outside the West Bank, hundreds of people participated in protests in support of Gaza before being dispersed by the police; five people were arrested. Despite Hamas’ calls for action, Arab communities in Israel remain relatively quiet, though various reports suggest that some are experiencing increasing discrimination at their workplaces in Israel due to the conflict.
• In the past 24 hours, al-Qassem Brigades (the military wing of Hamas) in Lebanon launched 30 rockets towards northern Israel. The IDF responded by striking the launch sites, as well as Hizballah infrastructure near the Israel-Lebanon border. Hizballah likely granted Hamas permission to conduct the launches; it currently likely regards the use of so many rockets in a single attack as too significant an escalation with regard to its current operations. This remains in line with our assessment that Hizballah is currently not interested in major escalation. However, an IDF ground entry into Gaza will elevate the likelihood of such escalation.
• Amid continued tit-for-tat clashes between the IDF and Hizballah, the former announced the evacuation of Kiryat Shmona city. The evacuation will begin later on 20 October. This suggests that preparations are being made for further escalation in northern Israel in response to a ground operation into Gaza. Additionally, since earlier on 20 October, three incidents have been recorded along the border with Lebanon: sniper fire in Zarit, an infiltration attempt in Shtula and a small arms exchange at a guard position in Margaliot (all Northern district). Israeli helicopters and ground forces are consequently conducting sweeps of the border area to identify the perpetrators.
• On 19 October, the US announced that its navy intercepted cruise missiles and drones launched by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, likely towards Israel. According to reports, three cruise missiles and 18 drones were launched from an area near Mokha Port (Taiz governorate, Yemen). The launches likely represent an effort by the Houthi rebels and their patron, Iran, to deter continued Israeli operations in Gaza, as well as US involvement. The interception likely illustrates US tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) in the region, namely the employment of air support in case Israel is targeted by rockets and missiles from multiple fronts in order to deter the entry of new parties and to counteract escalation.
• Iranian-backed Iraqi militants in Syria conducted attacks against local US positions. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq targeted the Conoco Mission Support Site in eastern Syria and the al-Tanf Garrison in southern Syria; the group used a total of six drones. Additionally, the militants also launched rockets towards Ain al-Asad Airbase (Anbar governorate); the base was also targeted earlier this week (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 18 October 2023).
• US intelligence reports claim that between 100 and 300 people died in the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital incident. While this number is lower than the initial estimate, it remains significant and is unlikely to change public opinion across the region, where the risk of unrest is sustained.
• The Home Front Command has ordered underground rail stations in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area to stay open during the weekend. The stations will be open on Friday until 0000hrs (local time) and on Saturday between 0700hrs and 0000hrs. The orders likely intend to enhance the availability of shelters for residents and travellers in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area.

*US: President calls for military aid bill for Israel, Ukraine; political instability may undermine efforts. On 19 October, President Joe Biden made an Oval Office address advocating using US military aid to support Israel and Ukraine’s respective war efforts. The address, seeking to cultivate support from the US public, comes ahead of a USD 100 billion spending request in military aid for Israel and Ukraine that Biden will introduce to Congress on 20 October. During the address, Biden suggested that US involvement aligned with the US’ broader commitment to defending democracy. Despite seeking to bolster public support, whether Biden can successfully gain enough support in Congress is unclear. Support for Israel is widespread, although a small group of Republicans oppose sending Ukraine additional aid. The House also remains without a Speaker, making it impossible to propose and pass legislation. Government stability risks remain elevated in the short term, with policy and legislative stagnation likely. The spending request could invoke further political tensions in Congress, and associated moderate domestic unrest is also possible.

*Syria: IS attack underscores heightened stability risks compounded by infighting in centre, east. On 18 October, the Islamic State (IS) launched a major attack on eight Syrian government military checkpoints in the south and the east al-Sukhna (Homs governorate), reportedly seizing control of several. The simultaneous offensive took place along the strategic M20 highway, which IS operatives have been attempting to take control of over recent months. It also follows a successful advance from IS last week in taking over portions of the M20 highway after an attack on the Afghan Shia militia Liwa Fatemiyoun. The attacks on 18 October took place in close proximity to areas under IS control and where the group has hideouts in south-west Deir ez-Zor and east of the city of Tadmur. Developments sustain heightened concerns that increasing stability risks due to an uptick in infighting and tensions among elements fighting IS, will represent an opportunity for the extremist group to expand. Risks will be further compounded by the effects of the Israel-Hamas war on Syria, sustaining security risks for in-country staff and assets.
• Emergency numbers for additional information:
o To report information about kidnapped IDF soldiers and civilians: 1229
o To receive information about missing civilians: 105
o To receive information about missing IDF soldiers: 1111 (press 5 and then 4)
o Home Front Command telephone service centre: 104 (this service provides information about civil defence guidelines, as well as information about traffic and roadblocks along various routes and instructions from government ministries, among other entities)

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Social media feeds have shared pictures of the Egyptian authorities repairing and removing reinforced concrete walls at the Rafah border crossing in preparation for the passage of humanitarian aid. While US President Joe Biden announced on 19 October that an agreement had been reached for the delivery of humanitarian aid, conflicting reports continue to emerge. However, it remains likely that the crossing will be open in the coming 24-48 hours to allow the passage of aid trucks. Moreover, the Egyptian military has reportedly deployed soldiers and assets at the crossing, likely reflecting efforts by the authorities to control (strictly) the passage of dual-Palestinian and foreign nationals amid concerns of substantial numbers of Palestinians trying to exit.
• On 19 October, Hamas called for a global day of mobilisation on 20 October dubbed ‘Days of Overwhelming Anger’. A mourning day for the children of Gaza will also be observed on 22 October. These calls will likely be followed by increased domestic unrest across the region, particularly in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and the West Bank. While protests are likely to remain largely peaceful in urban centres, confrontations with the security forces are likely, particularly in or near regions bordering Israel due to the security forces’ efforts to prevent possible infiltration attempts. Similarly, physical attacks against Israeli and US diplomatic missions are possible; this follows previously observed trends and will sustain security and bystander risks in proximity to these sites.
• Following the announcement about the ‘Days of Overwhelming Anger’, the US State Department issued a worldwide travel alert on 19 October to all its citizens, advising them to exercise increased caution and to avoid crowded areas. The advisory was released due to the possibility of ‘terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent incidents’. It is in line with our previous assessments highlighting the possibility of increased targeting of (and exposure risks for) Israeli and US nationals, as well as individuals displaying identifiable Israeli/Jewish or US symbols.
• Israel recalled its diplomats from Turkey on 19 October after advising its nationals to leave the country, further compounding the risk of deteriorating diplomatic relations with Ankara in the near term. The move underscores further strained relations between the two countries, and comes after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced three days of national mourning following the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital Blast in Gaza City (Gaza) late on 18 October. The decision to recall Israeli diplomats and nationals was possibly also driven by concerns about Iranian intelligence operations in Turkey and the possibility that Iran will utilise these assets to target Israelis. In June 2022, the Turkish authorities disrupted an Iranian assassination plot in Istanbul which allegedly targeted Israelis.
• According to unverified social media posts on 19 October, prominent Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has called for protests and strikes along Israel’s borders. Iraqis are reportedly arriving at the Iraq-Jordan border at the time of writing. Protest calls by Sadr will likely attract large-scale gatherings, particularly in cities like Baghdad and Basra (both Iraq). This will sustain stability and security risks in Iraq in the coming 24 hours, particularly in light of a marked uptick in the targeting of US military assets in Iraq and Syria this week. However, Sadr’s capacity to organise protests along the Israeli border is limited, as crowds at the Iraq-Jordan border are unlikely to be permitted to pass.
• The Israeli government has approved regulations that will allow it to temporarily restrict in-country operations of foreign news channels, sustaining concerns over media and information access as the fighting continues. Emergency regulations will be in place for three months or until the state of emergency is ended by the government. Local reporting at the time of writing highlights that the measures are likely aimed at the Al Jazeera news channel over claims that it has jeopardised national security. Restrictions of the Qatari news outlet will highly likely strain relations with Doha and heighten domestic pro-Palestine sentiment. The measures will also substantially heighten access and operational risks for all foreign news outlets and journalists linked to such outlets, as the new regulations will allow for the seizure of equipment, the blocking or restricting of websites and the closure of offices. Decisions, approved by the security cabinet, will be valid for 30 days and can be extended for another 30-day period.
• On 19 October, Brent crude oil exceeded USD 93 per barrel (pb) after Iranian calls for an oil embargo of Israel, marking a sharp uptick. The increase underscores heightened energy market volatility stemming from the Israel-Hamas war; instability will likely persist in the near term amid threats of greater involvement of Lebanese Hizballah and/or other Iranian proxies. Heightened prices will be further sustained by reduced business operations in the region, with Chevron shutting down the Tamar field (a key Israeli gas field) last week due to the fighting. However, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is not currently planning any immediate actions, with embargo risks further mitigated by Saudia Arabia’s role as the largest producer in the cartel.
• Saudi Arabia’s Saudia airline reportedly cancelled flights to Lebanon earlier on 20 October until further notice. This follows cancellations by aviation war insurers regarding the coverage of some airlines domiciled in Israel and Lebanon due to the fighting. While Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY, Lebanon) is currently operational, the continued volatile security situation will sustain elevated disruption risks to evacuation plans via commercial routes; the German carrier Lufthansa already suspended flights to/from BEY last week. These concerns have been further heightened by continued government advisories urging foreign nationals to leave while commercial options remain; Oman and the Netherlands are the latest countries to advise their citizens to leave.
• The Metzudat Zeev office building, which serves as the headquarters of the ruling Likud party in central Tel Aviv, was defaced with fake blood overnight on 19 October. Photo collages of hostages being held in Gaza and fake bloody handprints covering photos of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were also displayed. The protest act highlights significant public criticism of Netanyahu’s government over the high number of casualties sustained during the Hamas attack on 7 October. According to an opinion poll by the Maariv newspaper, 80% of Israelis agree that Netanyahu must take public responsibility for the perceived failures highlighted by the 7 October attack.

*Middle East: Government entities face increased cyber espionage risks from Iranian actors. An Iranian state-sponsored threat group, ‘OilRig’ (also known as ‘APT34’ and ‘MuddyWater’), targeted an unspecified Middle Eastern government in an eight-month-long cyber espionage operation between February and September 2023. The campaign infected dozens of machines, utilising various new custom malware tools to steal passwords and files. The attack involved the deployment of four new custom malware tools, indicating OilRig’s continuous development of their toolset, despite a leak in 2019 that temporarily disrupted their operations. OilRig is linked to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and has previously conducted disruptive and espionage-focused attacks against Albania, the Middle East and the US. Given the current turbulent geopolitical climate in the region, especially in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, it is likely that Iranian-aligned threat actors will continue to target strategic political targets in the Middle East in the long term.
Oct 19.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 18 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that it killed the head of the military wing of Gaza’s Popular Resistance Committees in Rafah during continued airstrikes across the Gaza Strip.
• Retaliatory clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued; the Israeli authorities are expanding the evacuation zone for civilian population centres to 3.1 miles (5km) from the Israel-Lebanon border.
• US President Joe Biden announced that Egypt has agreed to open the Rafah border for humanitarian aid, warning that it will be closed if Hamas disrupts or confiscates deliveries.
• The IDF has continued to carry out airstrikes across the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, killing the head of the military wing of Gaza’s Popular Resistance Committees, Rafat Harev Hossein Abu Halal in Rafah. Overnight on 18-19 October, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck hundreds of targets in Gaza, including dozens in the Shujaiyya neighbourhood (northern Gaza), one of the most densely populated areas in the enclave. The IAF also conducted drone strikes against rocket and mortar sites immediately after militants fired projectiles into Israel.
• Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants have continued to fire short-range rockets and missiles into central and southern Israel. Although Israel’s Iron Dome system continues to intercept most rockets, high-frequency rocket fire will sustain elevated bystander and collateral risks for staff and assets, particularly in areas close to Gaza. Ongoing rocket fire from Gaza highlights militants’ continued intent and capability to target civilian and military installations, sustaining broader threats to individuals in population centres, including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
• Since 18 October, domestic unrest in response to the blast at the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City (Gaza) has broadly subsided in Jerusalem. Nevertheless, in the West Bank, continued clashes between Palestinians and IDF patrols/Israeli settlers will sustain the risk of escalating domestic unrest and clashes in Jerusalem and its environs.
• During overnight operations in the West Bank, the IDF arrested 80 terrorist suspects, 63 of whom are suspected Hamas members. IDF forces encountered armed resistance during operations in Nur Shams refugee camp near Tulkarm. This resistance included the use of IEDs. Local media reported that the security forces shot dead a Palestinian individual during clashes at Jammain village south of Nablus city. Continued arrest operations will sustain bystander risks in the West Bank. There remains a latent risk of miscalculation during future such operations, which will possibly elevate ethno-religious tensions and violent domestic unrest, as well as the likelihood of a high-casualty incident.
• Between 18 and 19 October, Hizballah used anti-tank missiles and rockets to target IDF positions in Kibbutz Manara, Rosh Hanikra and Ruwaisat Al-Alam, as well as civilian installations in Al Malikiyah, Al-Manara and Zarit (all Northern district). On 18 October, nine rockets were also launched at Kiryat Shmona (Northern). While four rockets were intercepted, at least two landed in the city (though no casualties or injuries have since been reported). In response, the IDF returned tank and artillery fire; the IAF also struck numerous Hizballah sites located in Lebanon.
• On 18 October, the Israeli authorities expanded the zone from which population centres will be evacuated from those within 1.24 miles (2km) of the Lebanese border to those within a range of 3.1 miles (5km). Ongoing strikes will sustain significant collateral and bystander security risks for staff and assets in close proximity to the Israel-Lebanon border.
• Social media platforms reported explosions in Quneitra governorate (Syria). While the explosions were not verified at the time of writing, they were possibly the result of Israeli air strikes against Iran- and/or Hizballah-linked assets in the area. While these strikes will likely sustain elevated tensions across Israeli’s northern border areas, they are unlikely to result in major escalation that leads to the opening of a second front in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
• The US confirmed the deployment of the USS Mount Whitney amphibious command ship to the Eastern Mediterranean, where it will join several other US naval assets. According to US defence officials, the deployment’s objectives are to support Israel ‘through security assistance’, and also to send a ‘clear message of deterrence’ and vigilance ‘against any threats to US forces’. The developments come after US forces shot down drones targeting Ain al-Asad Air Base in Anbar governorate (Iraq) on 18 October; reports have since emerged that US service personnel were injured during the strike. In addition, the Iran-backed Tashkeel al-Warithin claimed a drone strike on 18 October against Harir Airfield (Erbil governorate, Iraq), though the origin of the strike has yet to be verified. The uptick of such attacks is consistent with heightened tensions fuelled by the Israel-Hamas war; Iran-affiliated groups will continue to threaten US assets in Iraq as Washington DC ramps up its military engagement in the region.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Late on 18 October, US President Joe Biden announced that Egypt agreed to open the Rafah crossing and allow the entry of around 20 trucks of humanitarian aid into Gaza by 20 October. The aid will represent the first such delivery since the start of the conflict, slightly mitigating the current socio-economic health outlook in the enclave. President Biden further added that if Hamas ‘confiscates’ the aid, or does not allow its transit, the arrangement will be terminated. These conditions and concerns over the operational capacity of the crossing itself will sustain risks to humanitarian access in the near term.
• The Egyptian government has scheduled nationwide protests for 20 October, dubbed ‘Friday of Rage’. Demonstrations will support the Palestinian cause and the opening of the Rafah crossing for aid transfers. Events are likely to be well-attended; large-scale gatherings are likely in major urban centres such as the capital Cairo, as well as Alexandria, Aswan and Giza. The government’s central role in disseminating schedules for gatherings will likely limit the potential for clashes and/or sporadic violent incidents. However, limited mobility disruption is still likely.
• Pro-Palestine protesters reportedly targeted synagogues in two separate incidents in the past 24 hours in Melilla (Spain) and el-Hamma (Tunisia). In Melilla, an autonomous Spanish enclave which borders Morocco, individuals waving Palestinian flags reportedly shouted ‘murderous Israel’ outside the Or Zaruah Synagogue. No-one was injured during the incident. In Tunisia, unverified social media reports showed hundreds of individuals burning and vandalising the el-Hamma Synagogue. Similarly, no one was injured during the incident.
• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 19 October after President Biden’s visit. Sunak’s visit is consistent with the UK’s ongoing support for Israel. However, as Western governments continue to push for de-escalation, discussions are likely to focus on the creation of a humanitarian route to Gaza and on British hostages held in the strip. Sunak’s trip will take place at the same time as a visit by UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly to Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. Additional visits by heads of state/government and high-level officials to Israel are likely in the coming days, particularly as Western countries continue to pursue the de-escalation of current tensions and fighting.
• The UK’s foreign ministry has updated its travel advisory for Lebanon; it now advises against all travel to the country. The alert follows similar guidance issued by the US on 18 October in light of the heightened volatility in areas near the Israel-Lebanon border. British nationals are advised to leave Lebanon ‘while commercial options remain available’. The US embassy also issued a statement urging citizens to ‘make plans to depart as soon as possible’. As previously assessed, additional warnings will likely prompt other countries to raise their alert levels and/or issue similar advisories in the near term. Due to the current operational environment in Lebanon and surrounding states, there is a realistic possibility that the accessibility of air, land and sea evacuation routes will be more complex than in Israel, particularly in light of the substantial deterioration in the security environment.
• On 20 October, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will host Jordan’s King Abdullah II for a summit in Cairo (Egypt). Both President Sisi and King Abdullah were scheduled to hold talks with US President Joe Biden and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas this week, though they were cancelled after the blast at the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City. The meeting underscores continued mediatory efforts by Amman and Cairo, despite existing diplomatic challenges.
Oct 18.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 17 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike targets in the Gaza Strip; it has also arrested terror suspects in the West Bank and reacted to anti-tank missile attacks and armed clashes along the border with Lebanon.
• An explosion at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City (Gaza) resulted in hundreds of casualties, elevating regional tensions and domestic unrest across the region; the blast will likely complicate IDF plans for a ground operation in Gaza.
• US President Joe Biden will visit Israel amid continued demonstrations against US support for Israel; the visit comes as US forces in the region are exposed to elevated security threats due to conflict spillover risks.
• The IDF continues to conduct airstrikes against Gaza; it is also continuing to ask residents in the north of the Gaza Strip to evacuate towards the southern town of Al-Mawasi. The IDF indicated that humanitarian aid would be directed towards Al-Mawasi. Open spaces to the west of the city of Khan Yunis were also identified as areas where Gazans are allegedly able to evacuate.
• Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants have continued to launch rockets and missiles against civilian and military infrastructure in Israel. Although most rockets have been intercepted or have fallen on empty land, a confirmed strike against a civilian house in Sderot (Southern district) highlights the persistent and significant bystander and collateral risks facing staff and assets, particularly those close to Gaza. Hamas also claimed to have shelled the northern Israeli city of Haifa (Haifa district) using an R-160 rocket, though no damage or casualties have been reported by the Israeli authorities.
• On the night of 17 October, the IDF arrested 83 terrorist suspects in the West Bank, 51 of whom are allegedly members of Hamas. While the IDF is likely to continue such operations in the West Bank, the blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital is likely to elevate tensions and the risk of violent clashes during future IDF operations in the West Bank, increasing miscalculation risks.
• On 17 October, an explosion at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City killed at least 500 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. There are multiple conflicting accounts regarding what caused the explosion; the IDF claims that the blast was a result of a failed rocket launch by PIJ, while Palestinian sources claim it was the result of an IDF airstrike. Regardless of the accuracy of these claims, the explosion has significantly escalated tensions between Israeli and Palestinian communities. In Jerusalem, protesters violently clashed with Israeli security personnel in Abu Dis and Wadi al-Joz, while armed clashes were also reported in the Shuafat refugee camp and at the Qalandiya border checkpoint. Protests also occurred in several cities in the West Bank, including Jenin, Nablus and Ramallah.
• The sustained uptick in clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah and Hizballah-linked militants based in Lebanon has continued over the past 24 hours; the group also announced a ‘day of rage’ on 18 October. Numerous incidents of tit-for-tat mortar and artillery fire have been recorded, including the use of anti-tank missiles by Hizballah. Additionally, at approximately 1800hrs (local time) on 17 October, the IDF reported the interception of an unidentified aerial target entering Israeli airspace from Lebanon. Ongoing clashes with Hizballah highlight significant collateral security risks for staff and assets in proximity to the Israel-Lebanon border. Hizballah rockets have targeted numerous communities in northern Israel, particularly Metulah, Yiftah and Zar’it (all Northern district).
• On 17 October, the Pentagon (US) announced that it has placed around 2,000 troops on high alert; they are reportedly ready to be deployed to the Middle East. This comes amid fears of escalation in Israel as well as in other Middle Eastern countries. Early on 18 October, US troops intercepted two drones targeting al-Asad air base in Iraq. This points to the likely spillover of the latest conflict. In the coming weeks (at least), Iranian-affiliated militants will pose an increased threat to US interests and assets in the Middle East, particularly those in Iraq and Syria, due to US support for Israel.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• According to the Egyptian authorities at the time of writing on 18 October, the Rafah border crossing will remain closed for an indefinite period due to damage from airstrikes. The closure of the crossing will sustain the near-total restriction of humanitarian access for the delivery of aid. This will continue to worsen Gaza’s deteriorating socio-economic health outlook and further strain limited healthcare capabilities. This will, in turn, almost certainly lead to an increased civilian death toll in the enclave. The Shifa Hospital, where the victims of the al-Ahli Arab Hospital blast have been taken, will run out of fuel by the end of 18 October, according to the hospital’s general director.
• Widespread protests took place overnight across the region, including in Iraq, Jordan and Turkey, after the deadly explosion at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital. Among other locations, protests took place outside the Israeli embassy in Amman (Jordan), the US embassy and Tahrir Square in Baghdad (Iraq), the US embassy in Beirut (Lebanon) and the Israeli and US consulates in Adana and Istanbul (both Turkey). Further protests also took place across the West Bank, including in Jenin, Nablus and Ramallah. A general strike was announced on 18 October throughout the West Bank to protest against Israel’s offensive against Hamas. Further protests are scheduled to take place on 18-19 October, including in Algeria (Martyrs’ Square, Algiers, on 19 October), Bahrain (the Israeli embassy, Manama, on 18 October), Iraq, Lebanon (the Ministry of Labour and the US embassy, Beirut, on 18 October), Morocco (the US consulate, Casablanca, and the UN office, Rabat, on 19 October) and Tunisia (Municipal Theatre, Tunis, on 18 October).
• Protests and violent confrontations with the security forces have resulted in the US State Department raising its travel advisory for Lebanon to ‘Level 4 – Do Not Travel’. The alert underscores concerns over the knock-on effects of the al-Ahli Arab Hospital blast, as well as Hizballah’s calls for a ‘day of rage’ amid continued rocket/missile and artillery exchanges along the Isarel-Lebanon border. The US advisory and the authorised departure of non-emergency personnel will increase the likelihood of other diplomatic missions raising their alert levels and/or issuing similar advisories in the near term.
• Similarly Israel’s National Security Council has raised its travel warning to Turkey to ‘Level 4’, the highest level, and to ‘Level 2’ in Morocco. It has also called on all Israelis staying in Turkey to leave as soon as possible and to exercise vigilance by not wearing any signs indicating that they are Jewish or Israeli. The authorities also advised Israeli nationals in Morocco to take extra precautions. These measures underscore Jewish and/or Israeli individuals’ increased exposure to verbal and/or physical targeting across the region. Similar travel warnings in Western countries, including European states, are unlikely at the time of writing.
• Two unidentified hooded men threw Molotov cocktails at a synagogue in central Berlin (Germany) overnight on 17 October, according to the German police. The incident caused no material damage. The security services are investigating the incident. The incident comes amid rising antisemitic incidents in the German capital following the start of the latest Israel-Hamas war on 7 October.
• On 18 October, US President Joe Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior military officials during a visit to Israel. Prior to Biden’s arrival, White House spokesperson John Kirby stated that the president would pose ‘tough questions’ to Israel’s leadership following a blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City. Yet during the leaders’ bilateral meeting, Biden suggested the strike was carried out by ‘the other team’. Biden was supposed to meet with Jordanian King Abdullah Al-Hussein, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman (Jordan). However, the White House stated the summit was ‘postponed’ following the strike against the hospital. Tensions between the US and countries opposed to Israeli military operations will likely increase in the near term, raising the possibility of broader regional tensions and opposition to continued US support for Israel in the medium term.
• The strike at al-Ahli Arab Hospital has resulted in widespread regional condemnation of Israel, including from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the attribution of the incident remains uncertain, countries are unlikely to retract such statements in the near term should Israel’s culpability be disproven by independent verification. This diplomatic trend will be reinforced by the substantial unrest caused by the hospital blast in several regional countries; this trend will also heighten anti-Israel and anti-US sentiment.
*US-Israel: Near-term tensions between US, anti-IDF nations will likely rise following presidential visit. On 18 October, US President Joe Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior military officials during a visit to Israel. Prior to Biden’s arrival, White House spokesperson John Kirby stated that the president would pose ‘tough questions’ to Israel’s leadership following a blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City (Gaza). Yet during the leaders’ bilateral meeting, Biden suggested the strike was carried out by ‘the other team’. Biden was supposed to meet with Jordanian King Abdullah Al-Hussein, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman (Jordan). However, the White House stated the summit was ‘postponed’ following the strike against the hospital. Tensions between the US and countries opposed to Israeli military operations will likely increase in the near term, raising the possibility of broader regional tensions and opposition to continued US support for Israel in the medium term.
*Region: Strike on Gazan hospital will sustain elevated domestic unrest, security risks in near term. Widespread protests have taken place in Iraq, Jordan and Turkey following a deadly explosion late on 17 October at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City (Gaza). The blast killed at least 500 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Protesters gathered outside the Israeli embassy in Amman (Jordan), outside the US embassy and in Tahrir Square in Baghdad (Iraq), outside the US embassy in Beirut (Lebanon) and outside the Israeli and US consulates in Adana and Istanbul (both Turkey). Further protests took place across the West Bank (Palestinian Territories), including in Ramallah. Demonstrations and violence are likely to continue in the coming 24 hours, sustaining mobility disruption, material damage and security risks for staff and assets, particularly those located in close proximity to Israeli and US diplomatic missions. The direct targeting of Western businesses remains unlikely at present, though companies with visible links to the US and Israel will be increasingly exposed to physical targeting risks.
Oct 17.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Since our last update at 1300hrs (BST) on 16 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to strike targets in Gaza amid ongoing preparations for a ground operation.
• Hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border have persisted; there has been a marginal uptick in incidents and tit-for-tat activity, including Hizballah cross-border incursions, anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) launches and small-arms fire on IDF positions and civilian population centres.
• While a scheduled visit by US President Joe Biden to Israel on 18 October is unlikely to affect ceasefire prospects, it will likely delay an IDF ground operation prior to and during the visit.
• The IDF struck over 200 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targets in Gaza overnight on 16-17 October. Joint strikes, including by Israel’s navy, targeted underground tunnels, banks allegedly used to finance terror activities, military command centres, weapons silos and individuals. Since earlier on 17 October, Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets have targeted areas in Jabaliya, Khan Yunis, North Rafah and Zeytun neighbourhoods (all Gaza).
• Hostilities between Israel and Hizballah-affiliated groups continue to intensify near the border with Lebanon, along with tit-for-tat strikes and attacks against Israeli population centres. On the morning of 17 October, the IDF reported that it intercepted four individuals attempting to plant an IED in Hanita village (located close to the border). ATGMs were fired from Lebanon against Metula town, injuring three individuals. The IDF responded by using tanks to fire on Hizballah positions in Lebanon.
• Unverified reports of a strike targeting the Rafah border crossing area on 16 October underline the elevated threats facing the potential humanitarian corridor. The reports come amid negotiations to secure the delivery of humanitarian aid through the crossing; they also come despite reports of a nearby humanitarian convoy waiting for approval to enter Gaza.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• US President Joe Biden is scheduled to visit Israel on 18 October and to learn about the country’s plans regarding Gaza. The visit is likely to include discussions on how to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza amid the uncertain status of the Rafah border crossing between the enclave and Egypt. President Biden’s visit is likely to exert moderate diplomatic pressure, though agreements on humanitarian corridors and a temporary ceasefire are unlikely during the visit itself. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken returned to Israel on 16 October after a series of meetings in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian threatened ‘pre-emptive action’ by Iranian forces and proxy groups to prevent an Israeli assault on Gaza. Such statements continue to underscore the latent risks of regional spillover as IDF mobilisation efforts for a ground operation into Gaza steadily progress. Such belligerent rhetoric will likely embolden Iranian proxies in the region, sustaining security and stability risks, particularly in Iraq and Syria; this includes the risk of attacks against US (and associated) assets.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nayan spoke on the phone on 15 October; this marks the first call between Netanyahu and an Arab head of state since 7 October. The call remained consistent with the stance of the UAE (which is also an Abraham Accords signatory) on the Hamas attack and underlined that the Emiratis are ‘appalled’ by reports that Israeli civilians were abducted. Also on 15 October, the UAE revealed that it will support the Gaza-based UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) with a new USD 20 m contribution.
• The EU and various other European countries have stepped up aid donations amid concerns that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is highly unlikely to improve as the fighting continues. The European Commission (EC) announced on 16 October that it will set up a humanitarian air bridge via Egypt, providing shelter equipment, medicine and hygiene kits. However, humanitarian access will be significantly constrained without a ‘green light’ on the opening the Rafah crossing and persistent Egypt-Israel disagreements. Relief convoys are currently waiting near El Arish (Egypt). France and the UK announced a further USD 10 m and USD 12.2 m, respectively, in aid for Palestinian civilians.
• After meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin (Germany), Jordanian King Abdullah II stated that the passage of Palestinian refugees into Jordan or Egypt represents a ‘red line’. The statement refers to Israeli calls for Palestinians in Gaza to evacuate towards the south of the enclave near the Rafah border crossing. The remarks also follow reports of preparations in Egypt to host a limited number of civilians in the Sinai Peninsula near the crossing. Nevertheless, a mass influx of refugees into both Jordan and Egypt remains unlikely at present, even if the Rafah border crossing opens in the coming days. Only dual-national Palestinians and foreign nationals will likely be allowed to cross at first.
• Hamas published a video of Mia Shem, a French-Israeli hostage. The video prompted calls for her release among the Israeli public and by French President Emmanual Macron. Hamas’ spokesperson has confirmed that the organisation is holding between 200-250 hostages in Gaza; it claims that foreign nationals are treated as ‘guests’.
• On 16 October, UNRWA claimed on X (formerly Twitter) that individuals affiliated with Gaza’s health ministry had seized fuel and medical equipment intended for humanitarian purposes from its compound in Gaza City. The social media post was subsequently deleted; UNRWA also clarified in a statement that no looting had taken place. However, these developments highlight the latent risk of humanitarian aid being diverted from its primary objective to support the civilian population, as well as compliance and relief-effort risks. These risks will be exacerbated in Gaza, as government and ministerial institutions are run by Hamas.
• Gaza’s Hamas-run interior ministry refutes claims that Israel resumed water supplies into Gaza on 16 October (see Sibylline Israel Conflict Update – 1300 BST 16 October 2023). The spokesperson for the ministry, Eyad al-Bozom, stated that governorates in Gaza have not received drinking water for the tenth day in a row. According to unverified social media chatter, approximately 150,000 litres of fuel for powering sewage and water pumping stations passed through the Rafah border crossing on 16 October.
• On 16 October, a Tunisian national illegally residing in Belgium killed two Swedish citizens in the capital Brussels; Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility. The threat level has been raised to the highest level (Level 4) for Brussels and to the second-highest level (Level 3) for the rest of Belgium. While the perpetrator had reportedly expressed sympathy for Palestinians via social media, Belgian prosecutors currently assess that a direct link between the killings and the Israel-Hamas conflict is unlikely. There is a realistic possibility that the perpetrator directly targeted Swedish nationals to coincide with a Sweden-Belgium football match being played in Brussels or in response to recent Quran burnings in Sweden.
Oct 16.
• Israel: Gaza war increases delays at seaports, sustaining supply chain disruption risks. On 15 October, the Haifa port authorities announced that they are increasing activity at the port to accommodate diverted cargo from Ashdod port, which has experienced operational difficulties due to the ongoing conflict. Since the start of the war, Ashkelon port was closed and ships have been diverted to Ashdod; this has resulted in increased security checks and a larger flow of hazardous materials. Together with a shortage of manpower due to reserve duty recruitment and rocket sirens affecting work continuity, this has caused operational disruption and increased waiting times for ships at all seaports. Operational backlogs and supply chain disruption are unlikely to improve as the war continues. Furthermore, Haifa and Ashdod are among Israel’s biggest seaports; they are therefore prime targets for Hamas in Gaza and/or Hizballah in southern Lebanon. Security risks facing the ports will increase as the war continues, further disrupting their activities and sustaining supply chain disruption in Israel in the long term.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Since our last update at 1700hrs (BST) on 15 October, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations in Gaza and across the West Bank have remained on trend. Israeli airstrikes continued to target Gaza, particularly northern areas; they remain highly likely in the next 24 hours.
• Continued uncertainty over the operational status of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in relation to civilian evacuation efforts and humanitarian aid underscores the persistent diplomatic obstacles facing the establishment of a ceasefire in the near term and Gazans’ capacity to escape the conflict.
• Evacuation orders for communities in northern Israel highlight the Israeli government’s persistent concerns over the volatility of the border with Lebanon; they come amid an uptick in cross-border attacks by Lebanese Hizballah and IDF retaliation over the weekend.
• Israel has updated the number of hostages being held by Hamas to 199. This increase does not reflect the seizure of further persons since Hamas’ incursion into Israel, but instead the gradual understanding of the true hostage count following a meticulous process to locate missing people and confirm who has been abducted. As such, the number of confirmed hostages will possibly increase in the coming days, though this is ultimately unlikely to prevent Israel from launching a ground offensive; it is also unlikely to deter airstrikes.
• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) intensified strikes against northern Gaza overnight. The number of people killed in Gaza has risen to at least 2,750 since the start of the war; over 9,700 have been wounded according to the Palestinian health ministry. Around one m Palestinians in Gaza have also been displaced.
• IDF operations in the West Bank continued overnight on 15-16 October. The security forces reportedly arrested 40 individuals suspected of being involved in terrorism, 20 of whom are allegedly part of Hamas. The IDF seized weapons and ammunition across the West Bank, where there were reports of sporadic armed clashes. Since the start of the war, nearly 360 people have been arrested in the West Bank; 210 are allegedly affiliated with Hamas.
• The US has deployed a second aircraft carrier, the USS Eisenhower, ‘to deter hostile actions against Israel’. The announcement comes amid increased threats by Lebanese Hizballah and Iranian officials about regional escalation in response to Israeli operations in Gaza. This underscores US efforts to contain the conflict by increasing the threat of retaliation against any other party that involves itself in the fighting.
• Lebanese Hizballah has expanded its campaign against Israeli forces along Israel’s northern border, while still stopping short of opening a second front. Over the weekend, Hizballah clashed with the IDF in five border towns; it reportedly used anti-tank missiles in the fighting. Following the uptick in clashes, the IDF announced on 16 October the evacuation of 28 Israeli population centres within 1.24 miles (2km) of the Lebanese border. This follows the IDF’s announcement on 15 October of a closed military zone 2.48 miles (4km) from the border, as well as revelations that GPS disruption systems are operating in the area.
• There are increasing reports of the alleged use of white phosphorous by Israeli forces. While there is a realistic possibility this munition was used as part of IDF efforts to destroy Hamas tunnels, such reports are unlikely to prompt a shift in key allies’ support for Israel.
• The IDF airstrike against Syria’s Aleppo International Airport (ALP) on 15 October marks the second such incident since 7 October. Earlier strikes against ALP and Damascus International Airport (DAM) took place on 12 October (see Sibylline Israel Conflict Update – 1400 BST 12 October 2023). These strikes likely reflect targeted Israeli efforts to prevent weapon transfers from Iran via Syria.
• Israel’s top military spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, reported that Hamas is continuing to prevent Palestinians from evacuating southwards from northern parts of Gaza after the IDF warned it would soon heavily bomb the area. The IDF continues to establish safe roads for northern Gaza citizens, though these are susceptible to change. Since the first evacuation order was issued, the IDF estimates that over 600,000 Palestinians have left areas north of the Gaza River.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• At the time of writing, the Rafah border crossing from Gaza into Egypt is closed, despite initial reporting that it opened at 0900hrs (local time) on 16 October to allow the exit of foreign nationals and the entry of humanitarian aid. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier stated that ‘there is no ceasefire or entering of humanitarian aid’ into Gaza as part of an exchange agreement allowing foreign nationals to exit. The announcement contradicted previous reports that a temporary ceasefire had been agreed between Israel, the US and Hamas to open the crossing.
• On 15 October, the Haifa port authorities announced that they are increasing activity at the port to accommodate diverted cargo from Ashdod port, which is experiencing operational difficulties due to the closure of Ashkelon port. This has resulted in increased security checks and a larger flow of hazardous materials. Together with a shortage of manpower due to reserve duty recruitment and rocket sirens affecting work continuity, this has caused operational disruption and increased waiting times for ships at all Israeli seaports. Operational backlogs and supply chain disruption are unlikely to improve as the war continues. Furthermore, Haifa and Ashdod are among Israel’s biggest seaports; they are therefore prime targets for Hamas in Gaza and/or Hizballah in southern Lebanon. Ports are likely to face heightened security risks as the war continues, with knock-on effects sustaining supply chain disruption in the longer term.
• US President Joe Biden has warned Israel against occupying the Gaza Strip, describing such a move as a ‘big mistake’. While the statement does not underscore a change in US support for Israel, the remarks highlight efforts by the Biden administration to minimise regional spillover risks. The US State Department also announced the appointment of diplomat David Satterfield as the US special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues.
• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken over the weekend. The meeting reinforces our previous assessment that regional states will continue to pursue mediation while supporting relief for Palestinians in Gaza in light of heightened concerns about the conflict’s spillover risks.
• During a meeting in Beirut (Lebanon) on 15 October, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian relayed to the UN Middle East peace envoy, Tor Wennesland, that Tehran does not want the war to escalate. However, Amir-Abdollahian also underscored that the risk of escalatory action is increasing, and that it will continue to do so if Israel launches a ground operation into Gaza. Amir-Abdollahian also met with Hamas and Qatari officials in Doha (Qatar) on 14 October, reflecting the existence of active diplomatic channels between regional US allies and Iran and Hamas.
• Israel has halted security exports to Colombia over remarks made by Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Gaza being ‘converted into a concentration camp’. The comments also prompted the Israeli foreign ministry to summon Colombia’s ambassador to Israel, Margarita Manjarez. The developments highlight the Israeli government’s heightened sensitivity to international perceptions of the conflict. However, additional export halts are only likely to target countries with which Israel has limited diplomatic and business relations.
• Israeli officials have confirmed the restoration of water supplies to Gaza, though improvements to the current socio-economic and humanitarian outlook will likely be marginal. While Israel only provides 20% of Gaza’s total water needs, the lack of fuel and electricity to pump and transport available water supplies will sustain currently severe health and safety risks. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has also confirmed that all hospitals in Gaza have a maximum of 24 hours’ worth of fuel to run external generators. Developments will likely sustain the recent influx of aid for UNRWA, including from China; the European Commission (EC) also announced on 14 October that it will triple its humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
• EU leaders will hold an emergency summit on 17 October to discuss the risk of the conflict fuelling ethno-religious tensions. Heightened security risks have been highlighted by the recent stabbing attack in France (see Sibylline Alert – 13 October 2023). The threat of sole-perpetrator attacks will remain elevated in countries which have been the most exposed to Islamist terrorism in recent years, including Belgium, France and the UK.
• On 14 and 15 October, pro-Palestine demonstrations continued to take place in multiple cities worldwide. In the UK, demonstrations in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Liverpool, the capital London and Manchester attracted thousands of participants, while similar protests were recorded in the US, particularly in Los Angeles, New York and the capital Washington DC. Demonstrations also took place in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney (Australia), Brussels (Belgium), Toulouse (France), Frankfurt (Germany), Dublin (Ireland), Amsterdam (the Netherlands) and Madrid (Spain), moderately disrupting movement through various city centres; few instances of violence were reported. In the Middle East, mass demonstrations in Amman (Jordan) and Rabat (Morocco) were also recorded, particularly in areas close to the cities’ Palestinian missions.
FORECAST
Despite mounting international pressure, Israel will continue its preparation for a ground operation into northern Gaza (see Figure 2). The IDF remains committed to its objective to destroy Hamas assets across the strip, sustaining severe risks for civilians in the near term. Airstrikes across the Gaza Strip and particularly in northern Gaza are likely to intensify ahead of a ground operation; such an operation is likely to be supported by naval assets and the IAF.
The operational and security situation at the Rafah border crossing will continue to remain highly volatile, sustaining risks for individuals attempting to leave Gaza. Despite continued reports about negotiations, Israel and/or Hamas are unlikely to agree to a ceasefire in the short term. The release of civilian hostages held by Hamas is likely to represent a key and unilateral demand by Israel’s government. The Israeli public’s and leadership’s acceptance of Hamas as a negotiating partner is at the lowest it has ever been and is a major obstacle to securing an agreement. Similarly, Egyptian officials have continued to reject the relocation of Palestinians to Egypt. This will continue to drive uncertainty over the use of the Rafah crossing without guarantees by Israel (or the US) to prevent a permanent influx of Palestinian civilians. As previously assessed, the Egyptian authorities will likely continue to block foreign nationals (and Palestinians) from entering until humanitarian aid is allowed through the crossing. Should the crossing be opened, large numbers of people will likely seek to cross, increasing the risk of bottlenecks and tensions with the Egyptian security forces.
The IDF’s announcement of the evacuation of 28 Israeli communities living close to the Lebanese border reflects its preparedness for unwanted escalation. While most communities have already been evacuated, the order highlights the increased risk of major escalation with Hizballah in the context of an uptick in clashes between its operatives and IDF soldiers during the weekend. While we continue to assess that neither side is likely to seek major escalation, continued clashes and tit-for-tat attacks will elevate the risks of miscalculation. Together with a likely large IDF operation into Gaza, these will increase risks of escalation in Israel’s northern border areas. There is a realistic possibility of increased rocket launches targeting civilian populations and critical infrastructure. However, major escalation remains unlikely.
Conflict developments and IDF military operations targeting Gaza will continue to drive an uptick in antisemitic and Islamophobic sentiment globally, increasing the likelihood of sole-perpetrator incidents such as verbal and physical crimes and attacks. Incidents have already been observed in France, as well as the US. The cities most likely to experience violence and/or Islamist attacks are Vienna (Austria), Brussels (Belgium), Lyon, Paris and Marseille (France), Berlin, Cologne and Hamburg (Germany), Amsterdam, the Hague and Rotterdam (Netherlands), Stockholm (Sweden) and London and Manchester (UK). Large-scale pro-Palestine protests will continue to take place. Events on 16 October are scheduled to take place in Canada, Ireland, Spain and the US. They are likely to remain largely peaceful, though physical security risks to bystanders and mobility disruption in the immediate vicinity of the protests remain likely. Regionally, protests are also highly likely in major urban centres in countries such as Iraq, Jordan and Qatar.
Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):
• High-casualty incidents in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
• Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support by Palestinian communities
• Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
• An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
• US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
• Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
• The IDF launches a ground operation into Gaza (Source: Sibylline)

22 Oct 23. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps visits US for urgent talks in support of global stability amid Gaza-Israel crisis

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps visited Washington D.C. to hold urgent talks with his counterpart and members of Congress in support of global stability.

UK has sent military assets to the eastern Mediterranean to prevent escalation and provide humanitarian support
Visit comes less than a week after UK and US defence secretaries met at NATO HQ in Brussels
As the Prime Minister visits Israel, UK is clear that the situation in the Middle East will not distract the world from Ukraine

Following Hamas’ barbaric attack on Israel and Ukraine’s continued defence against Putin’s illegal invasion, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps visited Washington D.C. for the first time in his role to hold urgent talks with his counterpart and members of Congress, in support of global stability.

The UK and US stand firm in our shared commitment to uphold international law and protect civilian lives wherever freedom is challenged. That commitment has been clear in the last week as our two countries have led the response to prevent escalation in the Middle East, and support Israel’s right to defend itself – taking all steps possible to minimise civilian casualties.

Prior to the trip, Grant Shapps held calls with his Israeli counterpart, Minister Gallant, to set out the UK’s support to Israel and to urge the importance of a proportional response to the situation.

The Secretary of State has also been speaking with his opposite numbers in Qatar, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Egypt to coordinate the response and prevent escalations.

The Defence Secretary’s visit came as the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary travelled across the Middle East to discuss the importance of avoiding escalation and a growing humanitarian crisis.

The Prime Minister ordered the deployment of surveillance aircraft and RFA ships to the Eastern Mediterranean to support regional stability and announced the UK will provide a further £10 million in humanitarian aid funding for civilians in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPTs).

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “The UK and US are determinedly standing up to aggressors and terrorists and supporting our friends and partners in the fight for freedom and security. Our nations were the first to provide Ukraine with the sustained support they need to beat Russia, and now we’re working alongside regional partners to prevent escalation and protect civilians in the Middle East. At such a crucial time for global stability, the urgent talks I have held with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, US Members of Congress and my counterparts in the Middle East underline the UK’s enduring commitment to peace and prosperity.”

On Wednesday, Defence Secretary Shapps met US Secretary for Defense Lloyd Austin to discuss the UK and US’s continued support for global security and prosperity, including the Middle East, Ukraine and AUKUS. These topics were also discussed with Congress representatives Adam Smith and Mike Rogers, as well as senators Roger Wicker and Jack Reed, during Shapps’ meetings on Capitol Hill which sought to strengthen the deep defence political and political ties with Congress.

The Defence Secretary also visited the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) headquarters in Virginia. The NGA delivers geospatial intelligence for the military service and intelligence professionals, as well as emergency services and has cooperated closely and provided support to the UK for more than half a decade.

Speaking during engagements in the US, the Defence Secretary made clear the crisis in the Middle East will not distract the UK or our allies and partners from our unwavering resolve to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to repel Russia’s barbaric invasion. The joint efforts of the international community, led by the UK and US, have ensured Putin continues to fail in his goal of conquering Ukraine.

The Defence Secretary also paid his respects to all those sacrificing their lives for Ukraine’s freedom at Holodomor memorial where he laid a wreath in their honour, and the memory of the millions killed by the famine 90 years ago. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

23 Oct 23. Israel bombards Gaza, Lebanon as Netanyahu convenes war cabinet.

Summary
Israeli forces raid Jalazone refugee camp in West Bank, two dead, says Palestinian health ministry
Biden, European leaders issue joint statement supporting Israel, calling to protect civilians
Second aid convoy reaches Gaza
Fears grow that Israel-Hamas conflict could expand as ground offensive looms

Israel bombarded Gaza with air strikes early on Monday and its aircraft struck southern Lebanon overnight, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting of his top generals and his war cabinet to assess the escalating conflict.

Israel’s attacks concentrated on the Gaza Strip’s centre and north, Palestinian media reported. A strike on a house near the Jabalia refugee camp, in northern Gaza, killed several Palestinians and wounded others, according to media reports.

In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, two Palestinians were killed at the Jalazone refugee camp near Ramallah, the Palestinian health ministry said on Monday.

Residents told Reuters that Israeli forces raided the camp and carried out widespread arrests, as they clashed with gunmen and some youths who threw stones. The Israeli army has not issued a statement about the incident.

Health authorities in Gaza said at least 4,600 people were killed in Israel’s two-week bombardment that began after a Hamas Oct. 7 rampage on southern Israeli communities in which 1,400 people were killed and 212 were taken into Gaza as hostages.

Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian discussed in a call late on Sunday the means of stopping Israel’s “brutal crimes” in Gaza, Hamas said in a statement.

Israel has amassed tanks and troops near the fenced border around Gaza for a planned ground invasion aiming to annihilate Hamas.

Fears that the Israel-Hamas war could mushroom into a wider Middle East conflict rose over the weekend with Washington warning of a significant risk to U.S. interests in the region and announcing a new deployment of advanced air defenses.

The Pentagon has already dispatched a significant amount of naval power to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, support ships and about 2,000 Marines, to help deter attacks by Iran-affiliated forces.

“What we’re seeing … is the prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told ABC’s “This Week” program on Sunday.

China’s Middle East special envoy Zhai Jun, who is visiting the region, warned that the risk of a large-scale ground conflict was rising and that spillover conflicts in the region were “worrisome”, Chinese state media said on Monday.

Iranian security officials told Reuters Iran’s strategy was for Middle East proxies like Hezbollah to pursue limited strikes on Israeli and U.S. targets but to avoid a major escalation that would draw in Tehran, a high-wire act for the Islamic Republic.

In neighbouring Syria, where Hamas’ main regional backer Iran has a military presence, Israeli missiles hit Damascus and Aleppo international airports early on Sunday, putting both out of service and killing two workers, Syrian state media said.

Along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group has clashed with Israeli forces in support of Hamas in the deadliest escalation of frontier violence since an Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

Early on Monday, Israeli aircraft struck two Hezbollah cells in Lebanon that were planning to launch anti-tank missiles and rockets toward Israel, its military said. Israel’s military also said it struck other Hezbollah targets, including a compound and an observation post.

Hezbollah said on Monday that one of its fighters was killed, without providing details. Israel’s military said 7 troops have been killed on the Lebanese border since the latest conflict began.

With violence around its heavily guarded borders increasing, Israel on Sunday added 14 communities close to Lebanon and Syria to its evacuation contingency plan in the north of the country.

MORE AID ARRIVES IN GAZA

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh called on the international community to create “a united front” to stop Israel’s attacks in Gaza and allow desperately needed aid which has only begun to trickle in.

A second convoy of 14 aid trucks entered the Rafah crossing to the besieged Gaza Strip on Sunday night, and U.S. President Joe Biden and Netanyahu affirmed in a call “there will now be continued flow of this critical assistance into Gaza”, the White House said.

The U.N. humanitarian office said the volume of aid entering so far was just 4% of the daily average before the hostilities and a fraction of what was needed with food, water, medicines and fuel stocks running out.

Biden also ramped up his diplomacy, convening calls on Sunday with Netanyahu and Pope Francis and speaking with the leaders of Canada, France, Britain, Germany, Italy and Britain about getting aid into Gaza and preventing the conflict from spreading.

In a joint statement, the leaders voiced support for Israel’s right to defend itself. They also called for adherence to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians.

Netanyahu also held a phone call with the leaders of France, Spain and the Netherlands late on Sunday, the Israeli leader’s office said.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will visit Israel on Monday and French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Tuesday. (Source: Reuters)

21 Oct 23. Statement From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Steps to Increase Force Posture.

Following detailed discussions with President Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region, today I directed a series of additional steps to further strengthen the Department of Defense posture in the region. These steps will bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for U.S. forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.

First, I redirected the movement of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the Central Command area of responsibility. This carrier strike group is in addition to the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, which is currently operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. It will further increase our force posture and strengthen our capabilities and ability to respond to a range of contingencies.

I have also activated the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery as well as additional Patriot battalions to locations throughout the region to increase force protection for U.S. forces.

Finally, I have placed an additional number of forces on prepare to deploy orders as part of prudent contingency planning, to increase their readiness and ability to quickly respond as required.

I will continue to assess our force posture requirements in the region and consider deploying additional capabilities as necessary.

(Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Oct 23. Biden Says U.S. Leadership Vital, Pledges Support for Israel and Ukraine. President Joe Biden underscored the importance of the United States’ continued leadership amid what he said is a critical time for democracies around the globe.

In an address from the Oval Office on Thursday amid Russia’s ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine and following the deadly attack against Israel by Hamas terrorists, Biden pledged that the U.S. will not waiver support of its allies.

“American leadership is what holds the world together,” Biden said. “American alliances are what keep us, America, safe. American values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with.”

“To put all that at risk if we walk away from Ukraine if we turn our backs on Israel, it’s just not worth it,” he said.

He said the actions of the Hamas terrorists and Russian President Vladimir Putin represent a common threat in seeking to “completely annihilate a neighboring democracy.”

“History has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction,” he said. “They keep going, and the cost and the threats to America and to the world keep rising.”

The U.S. has met this challenge with overwhelming support for both Israel and Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has rallied a global coalition in support of Ukraine and committed more than $43.9 billion in assistance to help the country defend itself.

The U.S. has also responded swiftly to the Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel that killed more than 1,300 people, including 32 U.S. citizens earlier this month.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored the United States’ unwavering commitment to Israel after meeting with key leaders in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv just days after the attacks.

“The world has just witnessed a great evil: the deadliest attack on civilians in the history of the state of Israel and the bloodiest day in Jewish history since the end of the Holocaust,” he said after meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last week.

“So, make no mistake: The United States will make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself,” he said.

Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said on Tuesday that the Defense Department had completed five, separate C-17 Globemaster III missions to deliver assistance, including munitions, to meet Israel’s needs.

Singh added that subsequent deliveries will continue.

The U.S. has also bolstered its deterrence posture in the Middle East in response to the attacks.

Earlier this week Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III directed the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to move into the region adding to the DOD’s broader efforts to signal U.S. commitment to ensuring Israel’s security and deter any state or nonstate actor from seeking to escalate the war.

The 26th MEU’s movement in the region comes after Austin’s directive over the weekend ordering the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to join the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, which arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean last week.

Those units complement the deployment of Air Force F-15 and F-16 fighter squadrons and A-10 attack squadrons to the region announced last week.

Separately, Austin has placed about 2,000 personnel across a variety of units on a heightened state of readiness to increase the department’s ability to respond in the Middle East.

The secretary has underscored the United States’ commitment to support Israel while continuing to support Ukraine.

“Make no mistake, the United States will remain able to project power and to direct resources to tackle crises in multiple theaters,” Austin said last week. “So, we will stand firmly with Israel as we continue to support Ukraine.”

During his Thursday address, Biden previewed a budget request to Congress for continued assistance.

The request includes funds to strengthen Israel’s air defense and replenish DOD stocks drawn down in the aftermath of the attacks.

It also includes a request for funds for additional weapons and equipment to help Ukraine succeed on the battlefield and shore up its economy and critical infrastructure as it defends against Russian aggression.

Additionally, the president is requesting funds to provide humanitarian assistance for those impacted by both wars.

The request also includes funds to strengthen U.S. security in the Indo-Pacific and along the U.S. southern border.

“It’s a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren,” Biden said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Oct 23. Biden Asks Congress to Approve Fiscal ’24 Supplemental Request.

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to approve a supplemental budget request for fiscal 2024 that will allow Ukraine to continue its fight against Russian invaders and deliver military capabilities to Israel as they confront Hamas terrorists.

If Congress passes the supplemental request, it will also provide money for crucial needs in the Indo-Pacific, including strengthening the U.S. submarine industrial base — a key component to the Australia-United Kingdom-United States military agreement.

The money is crucial to U.S. national security, President Joe Biden said during a prime time broadcast from the White House last night. Countering the brutal Hamas terrorists in the Middle East and helping Ukraine defeat President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of their country will enhance security worldwide, the president said. Failure to do this would reward terrorists and dictators and embolden them to continue their assaults on democracy, the president said.

This supplementary request would enable Israel and Ukraine to continue their fights.

“This supplemental request invests over $50 billion in the American defense industrial base, ensuring our military continues to be the most ready, capable and best-equipped fighting force the world has ever seen,” said Salanda D. Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, in a letter to the House of Representatives. “The funding will expand production lines, strengthen the American economy, keep us safe and create new American jobs.”

The supplemental request also contains humanitarian aid to those impacted by the Hamas attacks in Gaza and suffering from the brutal Russian invasion. There is also money for border security.

The request also “provides resources to ensure we can compete with China by offering developing countries a better value proposition, and it supports U.S. capabilities and initiatives that bolster security and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” Young wrote.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the budget request comes amid a global inflection point, and it needs to be approved soon. Following the attacks on Israel, the U.S. delivered military aid to protect the people of the country from Hamas. These included interceptor rockets for the Iron Dome missile defense system. “The administration is now requesting funding to invest in Israel’s defense against terrorists, including by strengthening its air and missile defense systems,” Sullivan said. “We are requesting an increase in security assistance for Israel to help it protect its people as well as the many Americans who live in Israel and travel to Israel.”

Sullivan said the United States must continue to stand up to tyranny and aggression and defend Ukraine against the Russian invasion. “We know from history that if we walk away and let someone like Vladimir Putin erase Ukraine’s independence, he will not stop there and would-be aggressors around the world would be emboldened. We have to send the unmistakable message that, in the 21st century, a dictator cannot be allowed to conquer or carve up his neighbor.”

Not funding Ukraine would send the message that dictators could outwait the United States because the country would walk away from allies, Sullivan said.

The weapons and military aid the United States and members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group provided have helped Ukraine. The country uses the aid in its efforts to win the battles for Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv.

“However, the funding and authorities the Congress previously approved overwhelmingly has nearly run out, and we need congressional action to ensure that we can continue to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs and protect its people while they’re under attack,” Sullivan said.

The supplemental budget request will also strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and support key allies and partners as part of U.S. efforts to maintain peace and stability, the national security advisor said. “Our allies and partners in the region need our support more than ever, and this request provides significant new resources to help them build the capabilities necessary to meet emerging challenges,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

21 Oct 23. Israeli air strikes hammer Gaza anew after Hamas releases two US hostages.

Summary
Heavy overnight Israeli bombardment of Gaza
19 people killed when aircraft bomb homes -Palestinians
Hamas released two U.S. hostages on Friday
Netanyahu: Not giving up on getting all the missing back

Israel kept up heavy bombardment of targets throughout Gaza overnight on Saturday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “fight until victory” following the release of the first two hostages by the enclave’s ruling Hamas group.

After Netanyahu signalled no pause in Israel’s aerial onslaught and expected ground invasion, its military said fighter jets had struck a “large number of Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip” including command centres and combat positions inside multi-story buildings.

Palestinian media said Israeli aircraft had struck six homes in the north of Gaza, a coastal enclave that is one of the world’s most densely populated places, killing at least 19 people and injuring dozens.

The Israeli military reported a fresh salvo of rockets from Gaza against southern Israeli border communities before dawn, then a lull until sirens sounded in the port city of Ashdod some 40 km (25 miles) north of the Palestinian enclave. There was no immediate word of casualties in either incident.

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Hamas on Friday freed Americans Judith Tai Raanan, 59, and her daughter Natalie, 17, who were among around 200 kidnapped in its Oct. 7 cross-border attack on southern Israel by militants of the Islamist movement.

An image obtained by Reuters after their release showed the two women flanked by three Israeli soldiers and holding hands with Gal Hirsch, Israel’s coordinator for the captives and missing.

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Reached by phone in Bannockburn, Illinois, outside Chicago, Uri Raanan, the teenager’s father, said he spoke with his daughter by phone. “She sounds very, very good, very happy – and she looks good.”

They were the first hostages confirmed by both sides in the conflict to be freed since Hamas gunmen burst into Israel and killed 1,400 people, mainly civilians, in the deadliest single attack on Israelis since the country’s founding 75 years ago.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israel’s retaliatory air and missile strikes have killed at least 4,137 Palestinians, including hundreds of children, while over a million of the besieged territory’s 2.3 million people have been displaced.

Israel has amassed tanks and troops near the fenced border around the small coastal enclave for a planned ground invasion with the objective of annihilating Hamas, after several inconclusive wars dating to its 2007 seizure of power in Gaza.

“Two of our abductees are at home. We are not giving up on the effort to return all abducted and missing people,” Netanyahu said in a statement released late Friday night.

“At the same time, we’ll continue to fight until victory.”

Abu Ubaida, a spokesperson for Hamas’ armed wing, said the hostages were released in part “for humanitarian reasons” in response to Qatari mediation efforts.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said achieving Israel’s objectives would not be quick or easy.

“We will topple the Hamas organisation. We will destroy its military and governing infrastructure. It’s a phase that will not be easy. It will have a price,” Gallant told a parliamentary committee.

He added that the subsequent phase would be more drawn out, but was aimed at achieving “a completely different security situation” with no threat to Israel from Gaza. “It’s not a day, it’s not a week, and unfortunately it’s not a month,” he said.

HEAVY BOMBARDMENT

The Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem, the main Palestinian Christian denomination, said that Israeli forces had struck the Church of Saint Porphyrius in Gaza City, where hundreds of Christians and Muslims had sought refuge.

The Israeli military said part of the church was damaged in a strike on a nearby militant command centre.

Israel has already told all civilians to evacuate the northern half of the Gaza Strip, which includes Gaza City. Many people have yet to leave saying they fear losing everything and have nowhere safe to go with southern areas also under attack.

Asked if Israel had so far followed the laws of war in its response, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated on Friday that Israel had the right to defend itself and make sure Iran-backed Hamas was not able to launch attacks again.

“It’s important that operations be conducted in accordance with international law, humanitarian law, the law of war,” he said.

The United Nations humanitarian affairs office said more than 140,000 homes – nearly a third of all homes in Gaza – had been damaged, with nearly 13,000 completely destroyed.

International attention has focused on getting aid to Gaza through the one access point not controlled by Israel, the Rafah crossing to Egypt.

Biden, who visited Israel on Wednesday, said he believed trucks carrying aid would get through in the next 24-48 hours.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres toured the checkpoint on Egypt’s side on Friday and called for a meaningful number of trucks to enter Gaza daily, and checks – which Israel insists on to stop aid reaching Hamas – to be quick and pragmatic.

Western leaders have so far mostly offered support to Israel’s campaign against Hamas, although there is mounting unease about the plight of civilians in Gaza.

Many Muslim states, however, have called for an immediate ceasefire, and protests demanding an end to the bombardment were held in cities across the Islamic world on Friday.

In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where violence has escalated since Israel began bombarding Gaza, Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian teenager during clashes near the city of Jericho.

Since the Israel-Hamas war erupted, the borderlands between south Lebanon and northern Israel have also seen constant but so far limited clashes between the Israeli military and fighters from the Lebanese Shi’ite Islamist group Hezbollah.

The Israeli military said on Saturday a soldier had been killed by a missile attack on the Lebanese border, in a statement that did not elaborate on the exact time or location.

(Source: Reuters)

19 Oct 23. DOD Responds to Attacks, Continues Efforts to Deter Spread of Israel-Hamas War. DOD assets in the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria responded to missile and drone attacks over the past two days, as U.S. service members look to deter groups from using the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to launch conflict that could engulf the region, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
Ryder also spelled out the steps Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has taken to strengthen DOD posture in the region to bolster regional deterrence efforts.
Ryder said the crew of the guided missile destroyer USS Carney operating in the northern Red Sea earlier today shot down three land attack cruise missiles and several drones launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. “This action was a demonstration of the integrated air and missile defense architecture that we built in the Middle East and that we are prepared to utilize whenever necessary to protect our partners and our interests,” he said.
There were no casualties.
“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched heading north along the Red Sea potentially towards targets in Israel,” the general said.
Ryder also detailed drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Syria and Iraq. The al-Tanf garrison in Syria was targeted by two drones on Oct. 18. “U.S. and coalition forces engaged one drone destroying it while the other drone impacted the base resulting in minor injuries to coalition forces,” Ryder said. All of the injured returned to duty.
At the same time, early warning systems indicated a possible threat approaching the airbase at al-Assad. Base personnel sheltered in place as a protective measure. “Though no attack occurred, sadly, a U.S. civilian contractor suffered a cardiac episode while sheltering and passed away shortly thereafter,” Ryder said.
Separately in northern Iraq, U.S. forces engaged and destroyed a drone resulting in no injuries or damage.
Ryder said he will not detail what the American response to these provocations will be. “I will say that we will take all necessary actions to defend U.S. and coalition forces against any threat,” he said. “Any response, should one occur, will come at a time in a manner of our choosing.”
Ryder said U.S. forces deployed to the region are meant to deter any government or group from launching attacks under cover of the Israeli-Hamas war. The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is crossing the Atlantic to join the Ford. The Air Force has also bumped up fighter presence to the region.
“By posturing these U.S. naval assets and advanced fighter aircraft in the region, we aim to send a strong message intended to deter a wider conflict, to bolster regional stability, and, of course, to make it clear that we will protect and defend our national security interests,” Ryder said.
Secretary Austin is continuing engagements with counterparts in the region and beyond. Just today, the secretary spoke with officials in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Israel. “During these calls, he reiterated U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself from terrorist attacks, and also underscored the importance of safeguarding innocent civilians — both Palestinian and Israeli,” Ryder said.
Finally, Ryder said that systems the Israelis requested continue to flow into the country. These include precision-guided munitions, such as joint direct attack munitions, small-diameter bombs, 155-millimeter artillery ammunition and other categories of critical equipment. In addition, the United States is providing Iron Dome interceptors from stocks the United States has in Israel. In the days ahead, “we’ll be flying additional Iron Dome interceptors so that Israel has the capabilities they need to sustain their defense systems and protect their citizens and from rocket attacks,” Ryder said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

19 Oct 23. USN warship near Yemen intercepted projectiles, Pentagon says. A U.S. Navy warship on Thursday intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones launched by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement from Yemen potentially toward Israel, the Pentagon said.
Washington is on heightened alert for activity by Iran-backed groups as regional tensions soar during the Israel-Hamas war.
The Pentagon said the destroyer USS Carney was operating in the northern Red Sea on Thursday when it brought down the projectiles and there were no injuries.
“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea, potentially towards targets in Israel,” Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters.
A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said it did not appear that the warship was the target.
The U.S. has sent a significant amount of naval power to the Middle East in the past week, including two aircraft carriers, their support ships and about 2,000 Marines.
While the White House says there are “no plans or intentions” for their use, it means U.S. military assets would be in place to protect U.S. national security interests if needed. The U.S. also has an array of bases in the Middle East with troops, fighter aircraft and warships.
(Source: Reuters)

19 Oct 23. US to send two Iron Dome systems back to Israel – sources. The Pentagon plans to send the two Iron Dome missile defense systems it had previously purchased from Israel back to that country to defend itself against inbound missiles, a U.S. official and a congressional aide said.
The Department of Defense told members of Congress at a briefing on Wednesday it planned to lease the Iron Dome systems back to Israel, the U.S. official and the congressional aide told Reuters. In this type of a financial arrangement, the ownership remains with the buyer.
The transfer back to Israel could come within days, the congressional aide said.
The Pentagon had been considering and testing the systems as a way to defend the territory of Guam from Chinese missiles.
The White House on Monday said it expected to fulfill additional security requests from Israel as quickly as possible. Biden promised replenishment of interceptors used by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system as well as ammunition in addition to redoubling the U.S. military presence in the region.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
Iron Dome was developed by state-owned Rafael Advanced Defence Systems with U.S. backing to counter rocket fire from Lebanon that hit Israeli towns during the 2006 war with Hezbollah, and from Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas Islamists took control in 2007. It became operational in 2011.
In August 2022, Israel said Iron Dome interceptor had shot down 97% of Palestinian rockets it had engaged during a weekend surge of Gaza fighting. (Source: Google/Reuters)

18 Oct 23. Hamas drones helped catch Israel off guard, experts say. The use of commercial drones in the Hamas terror group’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel is the latest example of how relatively low-tech warfare can catch sophisticated armies flat-footed, according to analysts.
Footage published by Al Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military wing, showed that during the initial attacks that killed hundreds of Israeli civilians and prompted aerial bombardments of Gaza in return, fighters used armed drones to attack different Israeli military targets.
One video shows a quadcopter hovering above a communications tower near the Gaza border fence before releasing an explosive device on generators seconds later. Another one appears to show the same type of munition blowing up a machine gun turret on an Israeli Defense Forces’ observation post.
While drone tactics have become a staple of modern warfare, commercially available models have leveled the playing field for groups like Hamas, Raphael Cohen, director of the strategy and doctrine program at Rand, told Defense News.
“We’ve seen other terrorist groups use different sorts,” he said. Lebanese militant group “Hezbollah notably infiltrated Israeli territory a few years back and ISIS used a primitive drone to attack U.S. troops and so on,” he added, using the acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria group. “Given the plethora of hobby and commercial drones out there, you have to expect Hamas has and will use this capability going forward.”
While experts say it’s too early to talk about a large increase in the number of drones Hamas uses, they noted the initial attacks may have been their most advanced operation to date in disrupting infrastructure.
“I don’t know if Hamas is using drones more but they used them in a very sophisticated way in this case that has probably not been seen before,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.” It used drones as part of a combined arms attack, where the platforms struck watchtowers and video cameras to allow ground forces to move ahead.”
That kind of synchronization requires a lot of planning and training, he added.
Yaakov Lapin, research associate at the U.S.-based Israeli think tank MirYam Institute, added that some of the available footage of the attacks suggests the drones deployed by Hamas could have been used as part of a swarming strategy.
“Hamas used drones effectively to target sensors and armored vehicles, as part of a ‘swarming’ approach that also involved heavy rocket fire and a ground assault,” Lapin told Defense News. “It was one component, but an important one for this attack.”
All three experts warn that Hamas has likely observed battlefield drone usage in recent conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war, where commercial drones have played a large role.
“Hamas pays special attention to the way other non-state terror armies [or organizations] have used them, particularly ISIS, which has used them extensively,” Lapin said.
A central question in the opening hours of the Oct. 7 massacre remains how Israel, one of the pioneers of drone technology with a large arsenal of effective countermeasures, failed to detect the Hamas drones.
Part of the answer lies in the fact that small unmanned aircraft can be difficult to spot for even advanced sensors. And Israel is not alone in having witnessed this kind of breach.
“It is notable that the Russians and Ukrainians — who are also focused on this same problem — have struggled in this area and the same is true for other militaries,” Cohen said.
According to Cohen, two other factors are likely to have played a role: resources spread thin and a lack of prior intelligence about the strikes launched by Hamas.
“All air defenses are finite commodities and Hamas sent a lot at Israel all at once — not just UAS, but rockets as well,” Cohen said. “It is also clear that Israel was caught flat-footed by the attack. All the best technology in the world will not help if the soldiers operating it are not alert.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/C4ISR & Networks)

19 Oct 23. Sunak follows Biden to Israel to show support as more bombs hit Gaza. Israel pounded Gaza with more air strikes on Thursday, as British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak followed U.S. President Joe Biden on visits to demonstrate support for war against Hamas while urging Israel to ease the plight of besieged Gazans.
Biden, who spent less than eight hours in Israel, flew home on Wednesday night having pledged support, and hugged and consoled survivors of the Oct. 7 raid by Hamas gunmen who rampaged through southern Israel, killing 1,400 people.
But he appeared to have only limited success in his other mission, to persuade Israel to ease the plight of 2.3m Gazans under a total siege.
Biden said he had secured an offer from Egypt to allow 20 aid trucks to reach Gaza at some point in coming days, a fraction of the 100 per day that U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths told the Security Council were needed.
During a speech, Biden told Israelis: “While you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it. After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. And while we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.”
Later he told reporters aboard Air Force One: “Israel has been badly victimized but the truth is they have an opportunity to relieve suffering of people who have nowhere to go… it’s what they should do.”
Israel said it would allow limited aid to reach Gaza from Egypt provided none of it benefited Hamas. But it repeated its position that it will open its own checkpoints to let in aid only when all of the more than 200 hostages captured by the gunmen were set free.
Sunak landed in Tel Aviv hours after Biden left, carrying similar messages of support and condolence for Israelis.
“Above all, I’m here to express my solidarity with the Israeli people. You have suffered an unspeakable, horrific act of terrorism and I want you to know that the United Kingdom and I stand with you,” Sunak told Israeli reporters after landing.
Inside Gaza there was no let-up of the punishing Israeli bombardment that health officials say has so far killed nearly 3,500 people and wounded more than 12,000.
In Khan Younis, in the south of the Gaza Strip, an area of shops was reduced to rubble as far as the eye could see, with a toddler’s pink cot overturned on the ground, windows blown off a clothing store and damaged vehicles.
Rafat Al-Nakhala, who had sought shelter in there after obeying Israel’s order for civilians to flee Gaza City in the north, said nowhere was safe.
“I’m over 70 years old, I’ve lived through several wars, it’s never been like this, it has never been this brutal, no religion and no conscience. Thank God. We only have hope in God, not in any Arab or Muslim country or anyone in the world, except for God.”
Footage obtained by Reuters from the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north showed residents digging with their bare hands inside a damaged building to free a small boy and girl trapped under masonry. The body of a man was hauled out of the ruins on a stretcher as residents tried to light up the site with torches on their mobile phones.
The United Nations says around half of Gazans have been made homeless, still trapped inside the enclave, one of the most densely populated places on earth.
RAGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The plight of Gaza civilians has enraged the Middle East, making it more difficult for Biden and other Western leaders to rally Arab allies to prevent the war from spreading.
An explosion at a hospital in Gaza on the eve of Biden’s visit scuppered his plans to meet Arab leaders, who called off a summit with him. Palestinians blamed the explosion on an Israeli air strike and said it killed nearly 500 people. Israel said it was caused by a failed rocket launch by Palestinian fighters.
Angry demonstrations erupted in cities throughout the region. Biden said U.S. evidence supported the Israeli account of the hospital explosion.
Instead of meeting in person, Biden spoke to Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi by phone from Air Force One on his flight back to Washington.
Egypt has long said its crossing to Gaza is open on its side but aid cannot get through due to Israeli bombardment of the Gaza side. Cairo has also firmly rejected any suggestion that it open the border to allow a mass exodus of Gazans to flee to safety.
Mark Regev, an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said on CNN that Israel had agreed to allow aid to Gaza via Egypt “in principle” but “we don’t want to see Hamas stealing aid that’s directed towards the civilian population. It’s a real problem”.
Washington has pushed, so far with no luck, to open the crossing to let the small number of Gazans with foreign passports leave, including a few hundred Palestinian Americans. (Source: Reuters)

17 Oct 23. DOD Increases Deterrence Posture in Middle East, Continues Aid to Israel. Security assistance continues to flow into Israel as Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III takes further steps to bolster deterrence in the region, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said today.
The Defense Department has completed five separate C-17 Globemaster III missions to deliver assistance, including munitions, to meet Israel’s needs in the wake of the deadly attacks by Hamas terrorists, Singh said, adding that she expected subsequent deliveries to continue.
Going forward, Austin has directed the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to move into the region adding to the DOD’s broader efforts to signal the U.S.’s commitment to ensuring Israel’s security and deter any state or non-state actor from seeking to escalate the war.
“The department remains focused on three objectives: supporting Israel’s defense through security assistance, sending a strong signal of deterrence to any actors who might be thinking of entering the conflict and staying vigilant to any threats to U.S. forces,” Singh said.
The 26th MEU’s movement in the region comes after Austin’s directive over the weekend ordering the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to join the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group which arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean last week.
“The 26th MEU is an adaptable military force composed of infantry, aviation and logistics components, all operating under one command,” Singh said. “Positioned at sea, the 26th MEU is equipped to execute amphibious missions, respond to crises and engage in limited contingency operations across a spectrum of military scenarios.”
Those units complement the deployment of Air Force F-15 and F-16 fighter squadrons and A-10 attack squadrons to the region announced last week.
Separately, Austin has placed approximately 2,000 personnel across a variety of units on a heightened state of readiness to increase the department’s ability to respond in the Middle East.
Those forces would add key capabilities ranging from transportation to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
Singh emphasized, however, that no decisions have been reached to deploy any of those forces at this time.
“This order only puts these units on higher alert,” she said. “The Secretary will continue to assess our force posture and remain in close contact with allies and partners.”
Since meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and members of the Israeli War Cabinet in Tel Aviv on Friday, Austin has remained fully engaged with the country’s leaders as the U.S. works to ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself from further attacks.
Singh said on Monday that Austin has held calls with his Israeli counterpart on a near daily basis since the attacks by Hamas.
During his visit to Tel Aviv last week, Austin condemned the “bloodthirsty, fanatical and hateful” attacks by Hamas terrorists.
“The world has just witnessed a great evil: the deadliest attack on civilians in the history of the state of Israel and the bloodiest day in Jewish history since the end of the Holocaust,” Austin said after meeting with Israeli officials.
“So, make no mistake: The United States will make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself,” he said.
Austin said U.S. support to Israel remains “non-negotiable” and that additional security assistance would continue to “flow at the speed of war.”
“For any country, for any group or anyone thinking about trying to take advantage of this atrocity to try to widen the conflict or to spill more blood, we have just one word: Don’t,” Austin said.
“The world is watching,” he said. “So are we. And we aren’t going anywhere.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

17 Oct 23. Israel to delay Gaza invasion ‘until after Biden visit.’ Israel’s invasion of Gaza has been delayed until after the visit of US President Joe Biden, according to an Israeli media report.
The expected ground assault has been postponed to an “unknown date” but is expected to take place once the US president has left the country, news site Walla reported.
The report claimed the delay had caused frustration among some military commanders, who believe it will give Hamas more time to prepare.
Israel’s military says it is still developing plans for its ground operation in the Gaza strip, which will be presented to the country’s political leadership, the IDF said in a briefing with reporters today.
Lt Col Richard Hecht, a spokesman for the IDF, said: “It’s something different. We have to break off from the old Gaza tit-for-tat. Its going to look different, it is going to take longer, and it’s going to look totally different.
“These plans are being developed, they’ll be decided by and presented to our political leadership.“ (Source: Daily Telegraph)

17 Oct 23. Former Israel security chief: list of targets in Lebanon is “ten times more” than in Gaza. As Israel evacuates settlements close to the Lebanon border, a former head of the National Security Council discusses how the new front opens. Following the 16 October announcement from the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) of the evacuation of Israeli residents within 2km of Israel’s border with Lebanon, the former head of Israel’s National Security Council, Maj. Gen. (Ret) Yaakov Amidror, said that a cycle of escalation may lead to Hezbollah opening up a second front in the war but that the airforce has a considerably larger list of prepared targets.
Israel called up a reserve force of 300,000 personnel and deployed a substantial reservist force to the northern border, deploying more units to the north than at any time since the 1982 Lebanon war. While the spearhead of the regular army is deployed in Gaza, to the south, any delay reallocating this force to the north should have a negligible effect on the outcome, according to Amidror, as the initial stages of a war with Lebanon would be conducted through air strikes.
“The war in Lebanon would begin with a few long days where the air force, as in Gaza, will have to bomb all the targets that are on the prepared list,” he said. “So we have time, during which the air force continue to work in Lebanon, and then the ground forces can come in, and we will have to make a decision with the gap between the two sides.”
Amidror acknowledged that the threat from Hezbollah is much greater than Hamas, but stated that the the IDF are prepared, and that the change in magnitude of adversaries provided Israel with deeper strategic options than in the conflict with Hamas. “The targets in the list are also much more than in Gaza… If here we are in the tenth day [of air strikes in Gaza] and we didn’t finish the list, I can tell you without going into numbers that the number [of listed targets] is ten times more.”
Yesterday, 16 October, marked the first casualty among Israeli civilians killed on the northern border with Lebanon since the recent conflict with Gaza began, a 40-year-old man killed from anti-tank fire directed at the residential neighbourhood in Shulta, according to the British Israel Communications and Research Centre. An IDF soldier was also killed on the northern border yesterday, bringing the total number of IDF personnel killed on that border this week to six.
Amidror believes that while both Lebanon and Israel are unlikely to seek a war, a cycle of escalation driven by casualties may still bring on the beginnings of open conflict. “It is a situation in which both sides do not want the war, but the war comes because of escalation, which is a result of ‘I don’t want him to be the last one,” he said. “If he killed two of my people than I have to kill at least four of his,’ and so on and so forth.
“I think that it is not in the interest of [Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah], and when he sees what is gong on in Gaza, my experience with this cautious guy is telling me that the last thing that he wants is to the Gaza conditions into Beirut and other centres of the Shiites in Lebanon, but as in many cases, you don’t control the level of the fire, and when you open it, you know where you begin but you don’t know where you end.
“It might happen, but it is not in the interests of Hezbollah and it is probably not our interest, because no one likes to fight on two fronts, but it might come, and the IDF is preparing itself for this situation.”
Amidror recalls the second Lebanon war of 2006, referencing Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s statement in August, one month after Lebanon’s defeat. Nasrallah said that he would not have ordered the capture of two Israeli soldiers if he had known it would trigger such a war. “I think that he still remembers it, and in a way he understand that this time it will be even worse because of the determination, and because the massacre is such that if he begins something hell will open for him.”
(Source: army-technology.com)

17 Oct 23. Gaza families ordered south return home, say nowhere is safe from Israeli bombs.
Summary
• Israel ordered people to quit northern Gaza last week
• Strikes have pounded all parts of the enclave
• Some families return home, say no difference between areas
• ‘Better die as martyrs in our houses’ says returnee
The Abu Marasa family are returning to Gaza City, having fled on Friday after Israel ordered all civilians to go south or face bombardment, saying they would rather die at home after an air strike hit the house next to where they were sheltering.
Bombing in the south of the tiny, crowded Gaza Strip killed scores of people overnight, local authorities said, and the Abu Marasa family is one of several Reuters spoke to that have concluded they may as well go back to their homes in the north.
More than a dozen members of the family were crowded into a car on the edge of Khan Younis, the main city of southern Gaza, their belongings strapped to the roof for the perilous journey back north through the bombardment.
“Why should we be martyrs in Khan Younis? We would better die as martyrs in our houses. Let the whole building fall on our heads,” said Saleem Abu Marasa, preparing to drive back.
Israel began its most intensive ever bombardment of the Gaza Strip, a 45km-long (25 mile) enclave home to 2.3m people, after the militant Palestinian group Hamas rampaged through Israeli towns killing 1,300 people on Oct. 7.
The Israeli military said last week all civilians should leave the northern half of the enclave, including the main Gaza City, as it prepares a ground assault to wipe out Hamas. Israeli bombing has killed 2,800 Palestinians in 11 days.
Even without the bombardment, a humanitarian disaster is unfolding across the enclave as Israel blocks off all power, water, medicine, food and fuel.
The evacuation order has stirred fears in Gaza, where many inhabitants are refugees, that they will never be able to return home. The United Nations human rights office warned on Tuesday that the demand could breach international law.
The United Nations said heavy bombardment was taking place across the enclave, with strikes hitting Khan Younis and other parts of the south where Israel had told people to go.
“Those who managed to comply with the Israeli authorities’ order to evacuate are now trapped in the south of the Gaza Strip, with scant shelter, fast-depleting food supplies, little or no access to clean water, sanitation, medicine and other basic needs,” said U.N. rights office spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani.
A crowd on Tuesday was working through the rubble of a building destroyed by an air strike, looking for survivors and bodies of those killed.
Rescue workers carried an injured man, smeared with dust and blood, past a bomb crater and fallen debris, before a paramedic ran from the ruins holding a baby wrapped in a blanket, feeling in vain for a pulse.
‘DEATH IS EVERYWHERE’
Hattab Wahdan had fled Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza and travelled to Khan Younis with his family. An overnight Israeli air strike hit a house near the one where he is staying, killing several people who had, like him, fled from the north.
“They told us the south was safe. They forced us, displaced us from our homes and we came to Khan Younis because we have children,” said Wahdan, who said Israeli strikes had destroyed his home during conflicts in 2006 and 2014.
“We found things are the same. Death is everywhere. So going back is better for us,” he said, describing the situation in Khan Younis as “hell”.
Israeli strikes are still pounding northern Gaza. As the sun rose on Tuesday, blasts struck behind a row of housing blocks in Gaza City, sending up balls of flame followed by massive pillars of smoke, a Reuters video link showed.
Residents there spoke of unprecedented devastation, with whole districts smashed. But many residents had decided to stay put, some of them afraid they would be forced all the way to Egypt and made refugees twice over.
“It is true that we have no electricity, no water, and no internet, but we have what’s more important, our determination to resist until death,” said Shadi, a father of six who works as a civil servant in Gaza’s Hamas-controlled administration.
“We are not going to give them what they want, they want another displacement and they will fail. We may die but we will be buried here, not in Sinai,” he told Reuters by phone from Jabalia refugee camp.
Reuters reporters by the road out of Khan Younis said they saw several dozen vehicles packed with people and belongings heading north.
In the family car, Raghda Abu Marasa was sitting in the back, jammed in with other adults, two tiny children on her lap.
“Now we are returning home even though our life will be in danger and it will be difficult for us and our children,” she said. But that was better than death away from home, she said. (Source: Reuters)

16 Oct 23. DOD Remains Resolute in Support of Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is continuing to coordinate closely with his Israeli counterpart in response to last week’s deadly attacks by Hamas terrorists, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said today.
Since meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and members of the Israeli War Cabinet in Tel Aviv on Friday, Austin has remained fully engaged with the country’s leaders as the U.S. works ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself from further attacks.
“Since leaving Israel, he has held calls with MOD Gallant … on a near daily basis and will likely have another call today,” Singh said. “We are working to meet Israel’s needs, which include air defense, precision guided munitions, artillery and medical supplies.”
In addition to quickly fielding U.S. aid to Israel, the U.S. has bolstered its presence in the region to deter further aggression.
The increases to U.S. force posture signal the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war.”
Over the weekend, Austin directed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to join the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group which arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean last week.
The Navy units are part of a broader bolstering of U.S. forces in the region. Last week, the Air Force announced the deployment of F-15 and F-16 fighter squadrons and A-10 attack squadrons to the region.
“The increases to U.S. force posture signal the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war,” Austin said in a statement over the weekend.
Singh noted that the U.S. is also providing planning and intelligence support to the Israeli-led hostage recovery efforts following last week’s attack.
That support includes a “small number of personnel in support of this effort as augmentation to the embassy staff,” Singh said.
“As the president stated, any presence of military personnel will be to advise and consult on hostage recovery efforts,” she said.
Singh said DOD remains focused on supporting Israel’s defenses, containing the conflict in Gaza, deterring other state or non-state actors from entering the battle space and protecting U.S. forces.
During his visit to Tel Aviv last week, Austin condemned the “bloodthirsty, fanatical and hateful” attacks by Hamas terrorists.
“The world has just witnessed a great evil: the deadliest attack on civilians in the history of the state of Israel and the bloodiest day in Jewish history since the end of the Holocaust,” Austin said after meeting with Israeli officials.
“So, make no mistake: The United States will make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself,” he said.
Austin said U.S. support to Israel remains “non-negotiable” and that additional security assistance would continue to “flow at the speed of war.”
“For any country, for any group or anyone thinking about trying to take advantage of this atrocity to try to widen the conflict or to spill more blood, we have just one word: Don’t,” Austin said.
“The world is watching,” he said. “So are we. And we aren’t going anywhere.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

17 Oct 23. Iran warns Israel to stop bombing Gaza as Biden to arrive.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that the bombing of Gaza must stop “immediately” as US President Joe Biden was set to arrive in Israel as a show of solidarity.
“No one can confront Muslims and the resistance forces if the Zionist regime’s crimes against Palestinians continue … the bombardment of Gaza must stop immediately,” Khamenei told a group of students in Tehran.
“The world is witnessing the Zionist regime’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza,” he said to chants of “Death to Israel”.
Mr Biden’s visit comes as the US has reiterated its “ironclad” commitment to Israeli security. However, behind the scenes diplomats have been working to avoid a regional conflagration that could draw in Hamas’s backer Iran.
Khamenei’s comments came after the Iranian foreign minister on Monday night said that “preemptive measures” could be taken against Israel within a matter of hours by the “resistance” forces.
Israeli bombing in Gaza has killed more than 2,800 people, the Gaza health ministry said, and injured more than 12,000. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

16 Oct 23. Israeli strikes on Gaza intensify as humanitarian crisis deepens.
• Summary
• U.S. officials hope the Rafah crossing can be opened later on Monday to allow some people to leave Gaza before an expected Israeli ground offensive, the White House spokesman said.
• U.S. President Joe Biden to stay at the White House for national security meetings, the White House said.
• ‘We are continuing our fight against Hamas’ -Israeli military
Israeli forces kept up their bombardment of Gaza on Monday after diplomatic efforts to arrange a ceasefire to allow foreign citizens to leave and aid to be brought into the besieged Palestinian enclave failed.
Residents of Hamas-ruled Gaza said overnight air strikes were the heaviest yet as the conflict entered its 10th day with an Israeli ground offensive of the densely populated coastal strip believed to be imminent.
Bombing carried on through the day, they said, and many buildings were flattened, trapping yet more people under the rubble. Israeli officials issued multiple warnings of Hamas rocket fire into Israel.
Diplomatic efforts have been underway to get aid into the enclave, which has endured unrelenting Israeli bombing since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants that killed 1,300 people – the bloodiest single day in the state’s 75-year history.
But Israel’s chief military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said there was no Gaza ceasefire plan.
“We are continuing our fight against Hamas, this murderous organisation that carried this (the assaults) out.”
Israel has imposed a full blockade and is preparing a ground invasion to enter Gaza and destroy Hamas, which has continued to fire rockets at Israel since its cross-border assault. On Monday, warning sirens sounded in several towns in southern Israel, the Israeli military said.
Israeli troops and tanks are already massed on the border.
Authorities in Gaza said at least 2,750 people had so far been killed by the Israeli strikes, a quarter of them children, and nearly 10,000 wounded. A further 1,000 people were missing and believed to be under rubble.
With food, fuel and water running short, hundreds of tons of aid from several countries have been held up in Egypt pending a deal for its safe delivery to Gaza and the evacuation of some foreign passport holders through the Rafah border crossing.
Earlier on Monday, Egyptian security sources had said an agreement had been reached to open the crossing to allow aid into the enclave.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said: “There is currently no truce and humanitarian aid in Gaza in exchange for getting foreigners out.”
Hamas official Izzat El Reshiq told Reuters there was “no truth” to the reports about the crossing opening or a temporary ceasefire.
Egypt has said the crossing was rendered inoperable due to Israeli bombardments on the Palestinian side.
U.S. officials were hoping the Rafah crossing could be opened for a few hours later on Monday to allow some people to leave Gaza before the expected Israeli ground offensive, White House spokesman John Kirby told CNN. The United States had told its citizens in Gaza to go to the crossing. It estimates the number of dual-citizen Palestinian-Americans in Gaza at 500 to 600.
Many Palestinians and foreign citizens flocked towards the crossing on Monday with suitcases and belongings hoping to make it across the Egyptian border.
“There is no safety, even when you’re at the crossing you’re afraid,” Hadeel Abu Dahoud told Reuters. “Nowhere is safe in Gaza. Wherever we go there’s shelling, shelling, crying, screaming, blood.”
Washington is also seeking to secure the release of 199 hostages that Israel says were taken by Hamas back into Gaza. Among them are elderly people, women and children and foreigners, including Americans.
U.S. President Joe Biden postponed a trip to Colorado on Monday to stay at the White House for national security meetings as Washington works to contain the conflict, the White House said.
Biden has sent military aid to Israel but also stressed the need to get humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians and urged Israel to follow the rules of war in its response to the Hamas attacks.
HEAVY BOMBING
In Gaza’s north, where Israel says Hamas militants are hiding in a tunnel network, people said Israeli aircraft bombed areas around the Al-Quds hospital early on Monday. Houses were damaged, forcing hundreds of people to take shelter in the Red Crescent-run hospital.
Israeli planes also bombed three offices of the Civil Emergency and Ambulance Service in Gaza City, killing five people and paralyzing the rescue services, health officials said.
Israel has told Gazans to evacuate south, which hundreds of thousands have already done in the enclave, home to about 2.3 m people. Hamas has told people to ignore Israel’s message.
In southern Gaza, five members a family were killed in Khan Younis refugee camp.
With hundreds of people trapped in collapsed buildings, rescuers and residents were frantically tearing away rubble, sometimes pulling out barely-breathing children.
“We were inside the house when we found bodies scattering, flying in the air – bodies of children who have nothing to do with the war,” said resident Abed Rabayaa, whose neighbour’s house in Khanis Younis was hit overnight.
Reserves of fuel to power generators at all hospitals across the Gaza Strip are expected to last only around 24 more hours, putting thousands of patients at risk, the United Nations humanitarian office (OCHA) said early on Monday.
More than one m people – almost half the population of Gaza – have been displaced within the enclave, the United Nations said, and it is struggling to cope with their needs.
For the fifth consecutive day, Gaza has had no electricity, pushing vital services, including health, water and sanitation to the brink of collapse. People are consuming brackish water from agricultural wells, raising concerns over the spread of disease.
U.S. officials have warned that the war between Israel and Hamas could escalate after cross-border clashes between Israel and militants from Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel for talks on Monday, Iran said the United States should be held to account for its role in the conflict. (Source: Reuters)

16 Oct 23. Israeli Navy’s Sa’ar 6 corvettes used to strike Gaza ground targets. Although Israel’s ongoing retaliation for Hamas’ incursion has predominantly been through the air and ground, naval assets have also been utilised.
As Israeli airstrikes on Gaza continue and ground troops assemble for an expected push into the Gaza Strip to counter Hamas militants operating in the enclave, the Israeli Navy has also been active, utilising its Sa’ar 6 corvettes for the first time in combat.
According to a 14 October statement from the Israeli Defense Forces, the Israeli Navy’s Sa’ar 6 corvettes struck a Hamas weapons manufacturing facility. In a short video released to the media, an unidentified Sa’ar 6 corvette, travelling at slow speeds, is seen firing its main gun system.
Multiple rounds are seen being fired in the short clip, purportedly at Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, with a cut showing the impact of the rounds on ground targets.
The Sa’ar 6 corvettes include a series of four warships built by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) for the Israeli Navy. Based on the German MEKO 100 patrol corvette, the Saar 6 class is designed to offer enhanced attack capabilities compared with its predecessor Sa’ar 5-class corvettes
The first-in-class INS Magen was commissioned into service in 2020, followed by INS Oz (2021), and INS Atzmaut (2021). The final vessel, INS Nitzachon, is due to be commissioned at some point in 2023.
Due to the poor quality of the imagery, it is not clear which vessel is pictured firing its main gun weapon system. All four vessels have been fitted with an OTO 76/62 Super Rapid (SR) 76mm main gun, produced by Leonardo.
The firing rate of the OTO 76/62 SR can be up to 120 rounds per minute; however, in operational conditions rounds will be fired in salvos and not sustained beyond a small handful. In the released video, the unnamed Sa’ar 6 corvette is seen firing two salvos of two and six rounds, although it cannot be determined whether this represented a portion, or the sum total, of rounds fired.
(Source: naval-technology.com)
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NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

AUKUS Defense Ministers Meeting Joint Statement

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE