NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Jan 12.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The US-led airstrikes on Houthi assets in Yemen have increased the risk of Houthi retaliation; they are unlikely to have significantly degraded the Houthis’ capabilities, sustaining international trade disruption risks.
Hamas’ calls for demonstrations in the West Bank 100 days after the 7 October 2023 attacks will elevate the risk of domestic unrest, clashes and attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem areas.
Gaza: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) clearing operations in central and southern Gaza continue to limit militants’ capacity to fire rockets towards Israeli population centres significantly. Over the past 24 hours, the IDF has continued clearing operations in Maghazi and Dier al Balah (central Gaza), while operations in Khan Yunis (southern Gaza) continue to uncover extensive militant tunnel networks below the city. The rate of rocket fire from Gaza-based militants towards Israel has remained low, with rocket fire almost exclusively targeting locations in the Gaza envelope in recent days. This trend highlights the militants’ increasingly limited capacity to launch frequent rocket attacks towards Israeli population centres; IDF ground operations continue to degrade militant command and control structures within Gaza.

West Bank: The Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids in the West Bank on 11 January, while clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have continued. On 11 January, Israeli security personnel conducted raids in multiple locations throughout the West Bank, triggering clashes involving the use of small arms in Jaba, Jenin and Qalqilya. During the raid in Jaba (Jenin governorate), Israeli security personnel reportedly killed the commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) Jaba Battalion, increasing the likelihood of retaliatory clashes in the coming days. Also on 11 January, Palestinian militants targeted an Israeli settlement near Beit Ummar (Hebron governorate) with IEDs, highlighting the persistent elevated ethno-religious tensions and bystander risks in the vicinity of Israeli settlements.
Israel-Lebanon: Cross-border attacks from Lebanon into Israel have returned to previously observed levels in terms of their frequency and intensity. Over the past 24 hours, Lebanese Hizballah and allied militants fired multiple rockets towards IDF positions in northern Israel; these include a multi-rocket barrage targeting Kiryat Shmona (Northern district) on 11 January, which triggered a temporary power outage. The IDF has continued to conduct air and artillery strikes against southern Lebanon; an artillery strike against Kfarkila (Nabatieh governorate) reportedly killed one civilian.
Yemen: Airstrikes conducted by the UK and the US overnight on 12/13 January against locations in Yemen reportedly killed five Houthi militants. According to US military officials, the strikes hit 60 targets across 16 separate locations; targets included weapons silos, airports, ports and bases. The strikes were likely in retaliation for a large Houthi attack on 9 January, which reportedly targeted UK and US warships. However, the latest airstrikes are unlikely to reduce the elevated risks of Houthi retaliation against coalition naval vessels or the likelihood of continued attacks against commercial vessels.
Yemen: Coalition airstrikes will likely prompt retaliatory Houthi attacks in Red Sea area. Earlier on 12 January, the UK and the US conducted airstrikes against 60 Houthi targets in Yemen; they were supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. The strikes targeted command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching pads and air defence systems in Dhamar, Hajjah, Hodeida, Kahlan Camp, Sanaa and Taiz, as well as an air base at al-Dailami. However, it is unlikely that the strikes will have significantly reduced the militant group’s capabilities. Therefore, it is highly likely that the Houthis will retaliate with new attacks against collation navies and commercial ships in the waters surrounding Yemen; a resumption of rocket and drone strikes against southern Israel is also possible. This also increases the likelihood of retaliatory attacks by Iran-affiliated militias against US bases in Iraq and Syria. The risk of possible long-range missile attacks by the Houthis against Bahrain, the only regional member of the coalition, is also elevated.
UK: Airstrikes against Yemen will likely drive uptick in pro-Palestine, anti-defence sector protests. On 11 January, UK and US military forces launched air and sea strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi military targets in Yemen. US President Joe Biden stated the strikes were in response to ‘unprecedented’ attacks by Houthi militants on commercial ships in the Red Sea. While the attacks will drive concerns of a further escalation of the conflict across the Middle East, they will also likely drive pro-Palestine action in the UK. The involvement of Iran-linked groups during such protests will increase the likelihood of misinformation and disinformation campaigns, particularly on social media platforms. Iranian-sponsored groups will possibly seek to encourage radical elements on the fringes of pro-Palestine protests, sustaining the risk of violence (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 30 November 2023). Anti-war activist groups will highly likely increase protest activity against defence-related assets nationwide, driving the security risks facing these entities. The authorities will likely increase security precautions for the upcoming National March for Palestine in the capital London on 13 January, where tensions will remain elevated.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Ceasefire and hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas continue to progress. On 11 January, unidentified Qatari officials reported that an agreement to deliver medication to Israeli hostages will likely be reached in the coming days, marking a moderate improvement in negotiations. Although Hamas officials have repeatedly stated that hostages will not be released unless a ceasefire is implemented and the IDF withdraws from Gaza, even limited progress and concessions in talks point to improved prospects for a hostage release deal.
On 11 January, Hamas called for demonstrations in the West Bank and Jerusalem in the coming days, underscoring the increased risks of domestic unrest and localised clashes over the weekend. These calls included the announcement of a demonstration at the al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem on 12 January before Friday prayers, elevating the risks of unrest and disruption to movement through Jerusalem’s Old City in the coming hours. Hamas has also called for a series of demonstrations throughout the West Bank over the weekend to show solidarity with Gaza and to coincide with the 100-day anniversary of the 7 October attacks. This will increase the likelihood of domestic unrest and clashes with the security forces, particularly in hotspots such as Hebron, Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarm, and possibly with Israeli demonstrators in and around Jerusalem.

FORECAST

International shipping and global trade disruption is likely to continue in the coming weeks, sustaining supply chain and business operation risks. Despite the substantial US-led airstrikes against Houthi military assets, attacks in the Red Sea are unlikely to dissipate. Furthermore, there is a realistic possibility that the Houthis will intensify their attacks on military vessels in response, further elevating risks of escalation. This highly volatile environment will likely continue to deter commercial shipping companies from traversing the Red Sea, and will continue to push insurance costs upwards. Taking the route through the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) will expose vessels to further delays at overstretched African ports, while also resulting in higher shipping costs and longer delivery timelines, impacting commercial entities’ inventories.

Hamas’ calls for demonstrations in the West Bank will increase the likelihood of domestic unrest and clashes with the security forces, elevating physical security and bystander risks. Over the coming days, numerous demonstrations will likely take place in the West Bank to coincide with 14 January, which marks 100 days since the 7 October 2023 attacks. Given the increased likelihood of domestic unrest and demonstrations, there is a realistic possibility of the Israeli security forces adopting an elevated security posture in the West Bank and Jerusalem areas; this will possibly increase mobility restrictions. During any demonstrations, there is a realistic possibility of protesters clashing with security personnel, driving ethno-religious tensions and elevating physical security and bystander risks. This risk will be particularly acute in the Jerusalem area, where events such as mass prayers for the safety of hostages held in Gaza are also scheduled in the coming days. These events will also face elevated terror threats from both militants and sole perpetrators. Amid these heightened ethno-religious tensions, the risk of clashes between Palestinian communities and Israeli settlers will also remain elevated, increasing the likelihood of further retaliatory intercommunal violence in the coming days.

Triggers and indicators for escalation

A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
• The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

Jan 11.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Events commemorating 100 days since the 7 October attack are likely to elevate security, mobility and operational risks throughout Israel over the weekend.
An International Court of Justice (ICJ) case is likely to drive global protests and actions deemed pro-Palestine, elevating domestic unrest risks as well as security risks for Jewish/Israeli communities.
Gaza: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continues to operate throughout Gaza, though it is focusing on Khan Yunis. In northern Gaza, the IDF destroyed a long underground tunnel near the Erez crossing. In central Gaza, it is operating within Maghazi camp; it has also encircled Bureij camp and is in the process of gradually encircling al-Musaddar village. In southern Gaza the IDF has concentrated most of its resources on conducting clearing operations in Khan Yunis, where intense fighting is ongoing.
West Bank: Local media reported that two Palestinians from Jabel Mukaber (East Jerusalem) were arrested last month for planning terror attacks. The two individuals were reportedly radicalised by Islamic State (IS) media and planned to conduct IED attacks, including via drones, against the security forces in Jerusalem’s Old City. The arrests reflect the elevated risk of radicalisation amid the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the associated threat of attacks, particularly in Jerusalem’s Old City.
Israel-Lebanon: Cross-border attacks from Lebanon into Israel have significantly reduced over the past 24 hours, while IDF attacks in southern Lebanon continued on-trend. The reduction of attacks against Israel is likely to be temporary; it is likely driven by an effort to demonstrate goodwill during visits by international officials to both Israel and Lebanon seeking to secure a deal to reduce tensions. Hostilities are likely to resume at previously established levels in the coming days.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Large-scale gatherings in Jerusalem underscore the elevated likelihood of demonstrations and protests ahead of the 100-day anniversary of the 7 October attacks. On 10 January, thousands of individuals gathered at the Western Wall for a mass prayer to commemorate the hostages and IDF personnel in Gaza. Ahead of the 100-day anniversary on 14 January, numerous demonstrations and commemorative events have been planned throughout Israel, including a 24-hour rally in Tel Aviv beginning at 2000hrs (local time) on 13 January. Furthermore, numerous businesses, labour unions and schools have announced a planned 100-minute pause in operations at midday on 14 January to commemorate the attack and the hostages. These will elevate mobility and operational disruption risks over the weekend.
During the first week of January 2024, 35% less cargo was transported through the Suez Canal compared to the same period in 2023, highlighting the significant socio-economic health risks facing Egypt. On 10 January, the IMF released figures highlighting the significant decrease in the canal’s use since the Houthis began escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea in November 2023 (see Sibylline Special Report – Red Sea Supply Chains Update – 8 January 2024). In the 2022/23 fiscal year, the state-owned Suez Canal Authority collected around USD 9.4 bn in canal transit fees (which constitute a significant source of government revenue). As Houthi attacks on commercial vessels persist, so will the reduction in canal usage. This will impact Egypt’s foreign currency reserves and exacerbate broader economic instability and associated unrest risks.
An ICJ case brought against Israel by South Africa began on 11 January, triggering demonstrations in The Hague (Netherlands). South Africa argues that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. Before the hearing commenced, hundreds of pro-Palestine and pro-Israel protesters peacefully demonstrated outside The Hague’s Peace Palace. Demonstrations will almost certainly continue as the case progresses, particularly on 12 January when Israel’s representatives will respond to South Africa’s primary arguments.

FORECAST

Events to commemorate 100 days since the 7 October attack will elevate mobility and security risks throughout Israel during the weekend. Large crowds are likely to gather in Tel Aviv at Hostages Square and in Jerusalem at the Western Wall (near the Old City). There is a realistic possibility that crowds will be targeted by militants and sole perpetrators looking to conduct stabbing, car-ramming, shooting and IED attacks. Hamas operatives’ intent to conduct retaliatory attacks following the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri (Hamas’ former deputy leader) on 2 January remains high, while heightened tensions in the West Bank have also elevated the risk of radicalisation. There is also a realistic possibility of a large rocket barrage being launched from Gaza into Israel, targeting central Israel (particularly Tel Aviv). There is a realistic possibility that a siren triggered in Tel Aviv during a high-attendance open-air event will prompt a stampede, while some individuals will likely not be able to reach a shelter in time. While Israel’s Iron Dome system is likely to mitigate the risk of a successful rocket strike, debris will still present a threat to the health and safety of staff.

The main events in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are likely to present localised mobility and operational disruption risks for businesses. There is a low-level risk of sporadic confrontations between protesters, the police and counter-protesters near events organised in support of the hostages. Any such clashes will likely focus on pressuring the government to take greater action and will possibly act focal points for expressions of anti-government sentiment. Any such events will possibly be targeted by Israelis who view any possible concessions to Hamas as a threat to Israel’s security. Plans by retailers and companies to hold a 100-minute strike on 14 January will also temporarily disrupt operations and supply chains dependent on participating third parties, suppliers and contractors.

South Africa’s ICJ case will likely drive ethno-religious tensions and increased protest activity worldwide, while elevated risks of sole-perpetrator attacks will likely persist in the coming weeks. As the case develops and continues to receive significant media coverage, this will drive sporadic flashpoints for outbreaks of protest activity, particularly in Western Europe, including Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK, as well as in South Africa and the US. Protests in key urban centres, such as Berlin, London, New York and Paris, will sustain risks of movement disruption; there is a realistic possibility of low-level clashes with the security forces and/or counter-demonstrators, elevating bystander risks. However, given that the case will likely last for several months, engagement with demonstrations will likely decrease in the coming weeks due to protester fatigue.

Developments in the case, particularly the release of emotionally-triggering evidence by South Africa’s representatives, will likely prompt sporadic upticks in protest participation. Similarly, there is a realistic possibility that the case’s coverage will drive attempted sole-perpetrator attacks against Israeli and/or Jewish individuals and assets. Additionally, militant groups are highly likely to use South Africa’s claims and evidence as part of their radicalisation efforts, particularly via online forums, moderately elevating risks of international terrorism and militant attacks in the coming months

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

*US-Middle East: Increased Houthi attacks in Red Sea risk prompting long-term US military response. On 10 January, officials stated that the US and its allies are assessing how to prevent Houthi attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea. This follows the interception of the largest barrage of drones and missiles fired from a Houthi-controlled area to date. The US is particularly concerned that continued Houthi-sponsored attacks will prompt violence to expand beyond the Israel-Hamas war. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken explicitly stated ‘there will be consequences for the Houthis’ actions’. The US Joint Chiefs of Staff are liaising with their UK counterparts to work on a military response. In the short term, maritime traffic will face a sustained threat of attack in the Red Sea. In the short-to-medium term, the US and its allies will likely continue with their multinational task force operations to protect commercial vessels. We assess that sustained attacks carried out by the Houthis will possibly provoke a larger military response in the medium-to-long term, but only after diplomatic channels have been exhausted.

Jan 10.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK’s and the US’ navies intercepted the largest Houthi attack to date, reflecting the persistent threat present in the Red Sea area and the readiness of the Houthis to escalate despite international pressure.
Protests in Ramallah (West Bank) during the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reflect growing anti-US sentiment; this is likely to raise tensions between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the US administration, impacting peace initiatives.
Gaza: Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant indicated that operations in Khan Yunis will intensify. According to local media reports, Gallant told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 9 January that the intensification will continue until all Hamas leaders and Israeli hostages are found. This is consistent with the raids regularly conducted by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commando units into underground military infrastructure in central Khan Yunis and the expansion of IDF clearing operations taking place mostly in southern Khan Yunis.
West Bank: Blinken’s visit to Ramallah triggered peaceful anti-US protests in the city. These protests were dispersed by the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces. Anti-US sentiment in the West Bank is likely to continue growing as the war progresses; it is likely to challenge peace initiatives and resolutions involving the PA and the US.
Israel-Lebanon: IDF strikes in southern Lebanon and Lebanese Hizballah drone incursions and cross-border fire into northern Israel continue to increase in line with recent trends. The risk of further escalation is likely to persist in the coming days, though a major escalation involving ground forces remains unlikely.
Red Sea: On 9 January, UK and US naval forces repelled a large Houthi attack against Red Sea international shipping lanes. The navies downed 18 drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles and one anti-ship ballistic missile. No damage or injuries were reported. The incident marks one of the largest Houthi attacks to date and reflects the group’s efforts to demonstrate its determination to continue conducting attacks despite mounting international pressure.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Several airlines have resumed services to Tel Aviv (Israel), underscoring an improving travel risk environment in central Israel. Earlier on 10 January, Air France announced that it would resume flights servicing Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) from 24 January. The announcement follows the resumption of flights to Israel operated by Austrian Airlines, Lufthansa and Swiss Air on 8 January. As the availability of commercial flights to Israel returns to pre-conflict levels, travel disruption risks will continue to decrease. However, airline operations will remain highly sensitive to developments in hostilities and cross-border clashes, sustaining risks of periodic delays and cancellations.
On 10 January, the UN Security Council (UNSC) will vote on a resolution condemning Houthi attacks against commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea. The resolution will likely pass, though there is a realistic possibility that China and/or Russia will abstain due to the explicit references to the Houthis within the resolution’s wording. Although the UNSC resolution is highly unlikely to influence activity in the Red Sea, it reflects the US’ and its allies’ efforts to establish a precedent within international law to adopt a more assertive security posture in the Red Sea, increasing the escalation risks in the coming days.
On 9 January, Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati stated that Lebanon is ready to enter negotiations with Israel on improving border stability. The statement reflects efforts to temper increasing instability along the Israel-Lebanon border amid sustained international pressure to prevent significant armed escalation. Negotiations are highly unlikely to begin in the short term; there is also a realistic possibility that any such talks will fail due to long-standing territory and border disputes. However, combined with international pressure, such efforts to keep channels open for dialogue are likely to decrease the risk of uncontrolled armed escalation.
Despite elevated regional tensions, normalised relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia remain possible in the long term. On 9 January, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman announced that Saudi Arabia intends to re-engage in efforts to normalise relations with Israel as and when the IDF ceases its operations in Gaza. While potential negotiations will remain highly sensitive to developments in the Israel-Hamas war, there is a realistic possibility that future diplomatic engagement between Saudi Arabia and Israel will temper elevated regional tensions, given Saudi Arabia’s regional economic and political clout. However, continued efforts to pursue normalisation will sustain threats to the Iran-Saudi détente; they will also drive tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Yemen-based Houthis.

FORECAST

Member states of the International Maritime Task Force are unlikely to view the continued interception of Houthi attacks as a viable long-term solution; an exploration of a possible alternative response that reduces costs is likely. During the 9 January Houthi attack, the UK’s HMS Diamond used Sea Viper missiles to intercept incoming Houthi fire; each munition costs over GBP1m (USD1.3m). The price disparity with Iranian-designed drones, which cost around USD 20,000, is likely to push governments to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of varying protection methods against the value of lost trade; this includes the cost of an intensified armed response. These calculations will likely impact members’ willingness to engage with the task force; there is a realistic possibility that some states will seek to reduce their contributions. There is also a realistic possibility that this will prolong the task force’s transition into taking a more proactive and direct approach to Houthi attacks. As such, instability and increased security risks in the Red Sea area will likely continue to affect international shipping in the coming month.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

Jan 09.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Lebanese Hizballah has continued to escalate drone incursions into northern Israel, striking the IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed with an explosive drone in retaliation for recent assassinations, prompting further Israeli response, threatening to drive escalation.
An Israeli delegation has reportedly arrived in Cairo for potential ceasefire talks, though formal negotiations are unlikely to resume over the coming week, despite rising pressure on the Israeli government to moderate hostilities in Gaza and secure hostage releases.
Gaza: The IDF captured a factory in Bureij (central Gaze) manufacturing rockets with a sufficient range to hit targets in Haifa in northern Israel. This is the largest rocket factory found so far and is connected by underground tunnels to locations throughout the Gaza Strip. On 8 January, a barrage of cross-border rockets from Gaza into Israel triggered sirens in the Gush Dan area, central Israel, including in the cities of Holon, Rehovot and Rishon LeZion. While cross-border launches from Gaza are much less frequent, both the 8 January barrage and the identification of the Bureij factory underline the persistent security and bystander threats emanating from sporadic rocket barrages across Israel.
West Bank: IDF operation continues on trend, with a large overnight operation on 8-9 January in Tulkarm, Nur Shams (Tulkarm governorate) and Nablus. During the operation, an IDF drone repulsed a small-arms attack by Palestinian militants. Usage of attack drones in the West Bank is becoming increasingly common, reflecting concerns about an increasing risk environment for IDF troops therein. However, we continue to assess that a major escalation involving mass mobilisation of the Palestinian community in the West Bank currently remains unlikely. On 9 January, IDF troops thwarted a sole perpetrator stabbing attack on road 465 at a checkpoint in a junction near Umm Safa (Ramallah and al-Bireh governorate), marking the second attack in this area in recent days.
Israel-Lebanon: An uptick in aerial incursions into northern Israel and cross-border strikes was recorded over the past 24 hours. On 9 January, Hizballah targeted the IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed with an explosive drone; the IDF confirmed light damage to the base. Hizballah claimed the attack was retaliation for the assassinations of both Hamas deputy Saleh al-Arouri and Hizballah commander Wissam al-Tawil. Later on 9 January, the commander of the southern Lebanon region of Hizballah’s air unit (responsible for the attack on the IDF northern command) was killed by an alleged IDF drone strike. Reports and corroborating footage indicate his car was targeted near al-Tawil’s home, moments before al-Tawil’s funeral. Hizballah officials continue to claim they are not interested in expanding the hostilities into a war. This claim and the uptick in the targeting of Israeli military positions (including the Northern Command in Safed) are consistent with our previous assessment and forecast (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 8 January 2024).
Syria: On 8 January, the IDF killed a Hamas operative in Syria responsible for facilitating and launching cross-border rockets into Israel. While Israel has increased its operations in Syria since the start of the war, it remains relatively uncommon for Israel to claim responsibility for strikes in Syria. As such, the claim is likely designed to signal that Israel will target the organisers of such attacks to discourage cross-border rocket fire from Syria. Such warnings are unlikely to be effective, with sporadic launches likely to continue over the coming months. However, the frequency of such strikes is unlikely to reach levels which would reflect a major or organised escalation from militants in Syria.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

On 8 January, a senior Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo for informal mediated ceasefire talks with Hamas following significant international and domestic pressure to re-engage in negotiations, reduce hostilities in Gaza and secure hostage releases. The talks come amid US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s tour of the Middle East, in which he has repeatedly called for hostage releases and increased humanitarian access to Gaza, underscoring elevated pressure on Israel from key allies to re-engage in negotiations. Also on 8 January, Palestinian Islamic Jihad released a video of an Israeli hostage calling for further hostage release negotiations, likely driving domestic pressure on the Israeli government to secure hostage releases. However, formal negotiations are unlikely to resume over the coming week, particularly given enduring elevated tensions over the assassination of Hamas’ deputy.
COSCO’s alleged decision to suspend shipments to Israel highlights rising diplomatic tensions between Israel and China. On 7 January, the Israeli news outlet Globes reported that the state-owned Chinese international shipping firm COSCO has halted shipments to Israel. This reported decision comes after the Houthi leader Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi announced on 8 January that vessels in the Red Sea that announce they have no ‘relationship with Israel’ will not be targeted by Houthi attacks. COSCO has declined to comment on the alleged decision which reports indicate the Israeli Foreign Ministry will soon discuss with the Chinese ambassador. While China has maintained a neutral position on the Israel-Hamas war to date, continued harassment of commercial vessels and threats to China’s economic interests will likely drive moderately elevated diplomatic tensions.

FORECAST

Current escalation dynamics along the Israel-Lebanon border are highly self-fulfilling, elevating risks of uncontrolled escalation. Israel’s rapid retaliation to Hizballah’s claimed attempt to avenge al-Arouri will likely pressure Hizballah to engage in further retaliation for the sake of its own members and commanders. This dynamic is likely to continue escalating in the coming weeks. Although Hizballah continuously emphasises it does not want to expand the hostilities into war, this circular escalation loop will elevate such risks in the medium to long term.

There is a realistic possibility that this environment will result in a high-profile attack by Hizballah, possibly targeting critical infrastructure, symbolic places and high population density areas. There is a realistic possibility that such an incident would be either escalatory or de-escalatory, either prompting a substantial IDF retaliation or a re-evaluation of the current state of the conflict with Hizballah, leading to a more measured response. Regardless, security and bystander risks in northern Israel, particularly around IDF positions and bases will likely remain elevated in the coming two weeks. Risks will also remain elevated for Israeli critical infrastructure such as electricity power plants and off-shore gas rigs, specifically those operating at the Karish gas field.

Triggers and indicators for escalation

A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

Jan 08.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hizballah struck a critical Air Traffic Control base near Mount Meron, highlighting elevated security risks following al-Arouri’s assassination and efforts to disrupt Israel’s air defences; further escalation is likely though not the mobilisation of ground forces.
Upticks in attacks against Israeli security personnel and citizens in the West Bank are likely to increase IDF operations in the West Bank, particularly in Jenin and near Hebron; such escalation broadly follows a gradual trend and currently does not signal a major escalation or mobilisation in the area.
Gaza: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to expand operations and strikes in southern Gaza, focusing on Khan Yunis. Cross-border rocket fire from Gaza into Israel continued on its low trend throughout the weekend. On 8 January, the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed that Hamas is using North Korean weapons and published a photo of a North Korean-made F-7 RPG suspected to be used by Hamas militants. The confirmation also comes after the IDF claimed on 30 December 2023 that it had found large quantities of Chinese-made weapons used by Hamas, indicating an organised supply chain rather than ad-hoc smuggling.
West Bank: An uptick in attacks against Israeli security forces and civilians in the West Bank throughout the weekend and Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians reflects elevated tensions.
In an overnight raid on Jenin, between 6-7 January, an IDF vehicle ran over a buried IED on a route not previously associated with militant activity. The explosion was sufficient to overturn the armoured vehicle, killing one Israeli border guard and injuring three more and was followed by a small arms attack by Palestinian militants. The IDF deployed two Apache fighter helicopters, two support helicopters and one attack drone to the scene and later conducted a drone strike on militant positions, killing six.
On 7 January, a sole perpetrator car-ramming attack against Israeli border guards at the Ras Biddu crossing near Givat Zeev injured one border guard. During the incident, a four-year-old Palestinian child travelling in a vehicle ahead of the striking vehicle was shot and killed by police. The Department for Police Investigations in the Israeli police subsequently opened an investigation into the incident.
Also on 7 January, a shooting attack from a passing car on route 465 near Ateret in the West Bank killed one Arab Israeli civilian and severely injured another. Three suspected perpetrators were subsequently arrested. The attack which likely targeted Israeli-licensed vehicles, reflects elevated security risks on West Bank routes.
On 5 January, Palestinian sources reported that Israeli settlers shot and injured a Palestinian civilian during an attack near Surif (Hebron governorate). Violent clashes between Israeli settlers and the Palestinian population are common in the Surif area, with persistently elevated ethno-religious tensions driving risks of further attacks over the coming days, escalating physical security and bystander risks therein.
Israel-Lebanon: Lebanese Hizballah substantially increased the frequency and intensity of cross-border attacks over the past 72 hours, elevating physical security risks throughout northern Israel. Amid multiple hostile aircraft incursions on 6 January, Hizballah launched a barrage of over 40 missiles towards the Mount Meron Air Traffic Control Base in the Upper Galilee area. Also on 6 January, an aircraft intrusion triggered an alert in Hamat Gader in southern Golan Heights, highlighting the increasing range of drone incursions into Israeli-controlled airspace. Over the past 72 hours, the IDF has continued to conduct air and artillery strikes in southern Lebanon, and on 8 January an IDF killed Wissam al-Tawil, a deputy unit leader in Hizballah’s elite Radwan force, in an airstrike in Majdal Selm (Nabatieh governorate). Risks of retaliatory attacks and further, moderate, escalation will remain elevated over the coming days, driving physical security and bystander risks in proximity to the Israel-Lebanon border.
Amid elevated regional tensions, numerous Hizballah-aligned militant groups claim to have fired rockets towards northern Israel, underscoring threats of conflict spillover. On 6 January, the Jamaa al Islamiya, a Sunni political and militant organisation based in Lebanon that is partially aligned with Hizballah, claimed to have fired rockets towards Kiryat Shmona (Northern district). Similarly, on 7 January, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, claimed to have targeted Haifa (Haifa district) with a long-range cruise missile, which allegedly landed in Haifa Bay, though no report or confirmation was made by Israel. Although neither incident resulted in material damage or reported injuries, increasing militant activity in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria will sustain elevated risks to civilian population centres, particularly in the Golan Heights, Haifa and Northern districts.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

On 8 January, the World Health Organisation announced the temporary suspension of aid deliveries to northern Gaza, underscoring significantly restricted access to medical services. The announcement comes as the WHO has been unable to deliver supplies to health centres in northern Gaza since 26 December, given significant operational risks. Similarly, on 7 January, Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) and the International Rescue Committee (IRC) withdrew staff from the Al Aqsa Hospital in Deir al Balah following IDF warnings to evacuate the area. Critical physical security risks to NGO staff and operations are highly likely to continue restricting service provision in northern and central Gaza, increasing pressure on services in southern Gaza and sustaining threats to public health throughout.
On 8 January, police dispersed approximately 40 protesters blocking the entrance to the Knesset in Jerusalem during a protest calling for a general election. The protest was organised by the families of victims of Hamas’ 7 October attack and reflects the continued domestic unrest and criticism towards the current government. However, current government stability and policy risks remain relatively low due to the ongoing war.
A cyber attack on Beirut-Rafic Al Hariri International Airport (BEY) underscores elevated conflict-related cyber security threats for businesses operating throughout Lebanon. On 7 January, the airport’s information display screens were hacked to display anti-Hizballah messages; although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it was likely perpetrated by the Soldiers of God, a domestically active extremist Christian group. Airport operations were not significantly disrupted. The attack underscores elevated risks of cyber-attacks targeting Lebanese entities amid rising domestic and cross-border tensions over elevated Hizballah activity. Businesses operating in Lebanon, particularly those linked to the Lebanese government and/or Hizballah, will face elevated cyber risks over the coming week, although the likelihood of a high-capacity attack significantly impacting operations and/or travel into and out of Lebanon remains low. (Source: Sibylline)

12 Jan 24. Israel Defense Forces Target Hamas’s Nukhba forces In Recent Operation. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) executed a precise operation against the elite Nukhba forces of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This operation, which took place within 24 hours prior to the announcement on January 12th, led to the elimination of a Nukhba commander during an IDF airstrike. This commander was involved in the October 7 incident and was targeted at a Hamas military compound in Khan Yunis.

In parallel, IDF ground forces engaged and neutralized three armed individuals as they exited a Hamas compound in Khan Yunis. Nearby, a weapons storage facility containing AK-47 rifles and RPG launchers was located and destroyed.

A significant discovery during the operation was an extensive underground tunnel network beneath Khan Yunis. Unearthed by the IDF’s Commando Unit and Yahalom Combat Engineering Unit, the tunnel featured advanced infrastructure such as ventilation, electrical systems, and plumbing. It was confirmed that Israeli hostages were held in this complex.

The IDF’s 98th Division is actively involved in both urban and subterranean warfare tactics as part of this campaign. The division’s focus is on identifying and dismantling Hamas’s underground tunnel networks, employing advanced technologies and coordinated efforts of engineering units, the Yahalom Unit, and special forces. m(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

12 Jan 24. India Enhances Maritime Force in Arabian Sea Amid Regional Tensions. India’s recent deployment of an expanded maritime force in the Arabian Sea marks a strategic enhancement of its naval capabilities, reflecting its global aspirations and geopolitical positioning. Drone footage showcasing Indian commandos responding to a pirate attack underscores India’s active participation in the Red Sea. These commandos, dispatched from an Indian-built warship, were mobilized following an attempted hijacking of a merchant vessel.

This expansion is viewed as a direct response to China’s growing influence in the region, especially through its Belt and Road Initiative and the establishment of its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, is seeking to bolster its global standing, particularly as it surpassed China as the most populous country and maintains its position as the world’s fifth-largest economy.

The Indian Navy’s increased presence in the Arabian Sea includes three guided-missile destroyers and P-8I reconnaissance aircraft, demonstrating a substantial augmentation of naval forces. This deployment is not just a reactionary measure to piracy but is indicative of India’s desire to assert itself as a key player in regional security and development. The navy has been actively engaging in anti-piracy operations since 2008, showcasing its capability to protect vital shipping lanes.

(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

12 Jan 24. Strikes Against Houthis Likely Effective in Degrading Rebel Group’s Capabilities. The Defense Department is highly confident that yesterday’s strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen were effective in degrading the rebel group’s ability to carry out further attacks against commercial ships operating in the Red Sea, a senior Pentagon official said today.

Army Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Sims II, director of operations for the Joint Staff, said joint forces from the U.S. and United Kingdom launched more than 150 munitions from both maritime and air platforms against more than 16 locations controlled by the Iranian-backed militants.

“At this point, we continue to conduct battle damage assessment of the various targets,” Sims said. “We feel very confident about where our munitions struck.”

The deliberate strikes, which were carried out with nonoperational support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, were assessed to have hit multiple targets across each location.

Those targets included command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities and air defense radar systems used by the Houthi’s to carry out attacks against vessels operating in international waters.

“We know precisely the capability that the Houthis have been employing against the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandab,” Sims said. “This was solely designed to get after the capability that is impeding international freedom of navigation in international waters. We feel pretty confident we did good work on that.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III issued the order for U.S. Central Command Commander General Michael E. Kurilla to carry our the strikes yesterday following a series of attacks launched by Houthis against commercial ships operating in the region.

“This action is intended to disrupt and degrade the Houthis’ capabilities to endanger mariners and threaten global trade in one of the world’s most critical waterways,” Austin said in a statement following the strikes. “Today’s coalition action sends a clear message to the Houthis that they will bear further costs if they do not end their illegal attacks.”

Austin added that the U.S. “maintains its right to self-defense and, if necessary, will take follow-on actions to protect U.S. forces.”

Defense officials said today that Austin monitored the strikes in real time and conducted a call with the National Security Council and U.S. Central command for initial post strike assessment following the operation.

Austin is continuing to monitor the situation today, officials said.

Since mid-November, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have launched more than two dozen attacks against merchant vessels operating in the Red Sea. Such attacks against the vital international shipping lane posed a vital concern and impacted international commerce across the globe.

In response, Austin announced the Dec. 18 launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international maritime task force designed to defend against the attacks.

The operation brought together forces from 22 nations to address the challenges in the region and ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The forces operate under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of Task Force 153, a U.S. Navy-led initiative focused on maritime security in the Red Sea. Earlier this week, the rebel group launched nearly 20 drones and several missiles targeting U.S. ships underway in the region. That attack was defeated by U.S. and U.K. forces operating in the region as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian.

Yesterday’s strikes launched against the rebel stronghold in Yemen were not associated with, and are separate from, Operation Prosperity Guardian, the Pentagon official said.

The defensive strikes followed sustained diplomatic efforts and broad international condemnation of the Houthi attacks that have threatened global commerce.

Last week, the governments of the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement condemning the attacks and warning the rebel group against further escalation.

In the statement, the nations warned that the Houthis “will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.”

Earlier this week, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution demanding that the rebel group cease all attacks against ships in the Red Sea.

In a statement following yesterday’s strike, the governments of the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement further condemning the Houthis’ actions and warning against further escalation.

The nations’ statement read that the strikes “demonstrated a shared commitment to freedom of navigation, international commerce and defending the lives of mariners from illegal and unjustifiable attacks. Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea, but let our message be clear: We will not hesitate to defend lives and protect the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

12 Jan 24. U.S., Partners’ Forces Strike Houthi Military Targets in Yemen.

U.S. and partners’ forces conducted defensive strikes against military targets in Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen yesterday following a series of attacks launched by the armed rebel group against commercial ships operating in the Red Sea.

The joint strikes were carried out by the U.S. and United Kingdom with nonoperational support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. They targeted Houthi missile, radar and unmanned areal vehicle capabilities used to carry out attacks against vessels operating in international waters.

President Joe Biden said the strikes serve as a “a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes.”

“I will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce, as necessary,” he said in a statement following the strikes.

The U.S. and U.K. forces launched the strikes from air, surface and subsurface platforms and used precision-guided munitions to minimize collateral damage, a Pentagon official said during a press briefing following the strikes.

The strike package included a variety of aircraft flown by U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force and U.K. pilots.

“This action is intended to disrupt and degrade the Houthis’ capabilities to endanger mariners and threaten global trade in one of world’s most critical waterways,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement following the strikes. “Today’s coalition action sends a clear message to the Houthis that they will bear further costs if they do not end their illegal attacks.”

Austin added that the U.S. “maintains its right to self-defense and, if necessary, will take follow-on actions to protect U.S. forces.”

In response, Austin announced the Dec. 18 launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international maritime task force designed to defend against the attacks.

The operation brought together forces from 22 nations to address the challenges in the region and ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Yesterday’s strikes launched against the rebel stronghold in Yemen were not associated with, and are separate from, Operation Prosperity Guardian, the Pentagon official said.

The defensive strikes followed sustained diplomatic efforts and broad international condemnation of the Houthi attacks that have threatened global commerce.

Earlier this week, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution demanding that the rebel group cease all attacks against ships in the Red Sea.

In a statement following yesterday’s strike, the goverments of the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement further condemning the Houthis’ actions and warning against further escalation.

11 Jan 24. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Coalition Strikes in Houthi-Controlled Areas of Yemen. In light of the illegal, dangerous, and destabilizing Iranian-backed Houthi attacks against U.S. and international vessels and commercial vessels from many countries lawfully transiting the Red Sea, today the militaries of the United States and the United Kingdom, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, conducted strikes against military targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. This action is intended to disrupt and degrade the Houthis’ capabilities to endanger mariners and threaten global trade in one of the world’s most critical waterways. Today’s coalition action sends a clear message to the Houthis that they will bear further costs if they do not end their illegal attacks.

Tod y’s strikes targeted sites associated with the Houthis’ unmanned aerial vehicle, ballistic and cruise missile, and coastal radar and air surveillance capabilities. The United States maintains its right to self-defense and, if necessary, we will take follow-on actions to protect U.S. forces.

Since November 19, the Houthis have launched more than two dozen attacks on vessels, including commercial vessels, creating an international challenge that demands collective action. Today, a coalition of countries committed to upholding the rules-based international order demonstrated our shared commitment to defending U.S. and international vessels and commercial vessels exercising navigational rights and freedoms from illegal and unjustifiable attacks.

We will not hesitate to defend our forces, the global economy, and the free flow of legitimate commerce in one of the world’s vital waterways. (Source: U.S. DoD)

11 Jan 24. RAF strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen. On 11 January, Royal Air Force aircraft joined coalition forces in striking a number of facilities used by the Houthi rebel faction in Yemen to attack shipping in the southern Red Sea.

The Royal Navy destroyer HMS Diamond has already been active alongside US and French warships in defending vital international shipping lanes against Houthi drones and missiles. Given the persistence of the Houthis in threatening merchant ships, several of which have already suffered damage, and the deliberate targeting of HMS Diamond and US Navy vessels on 9 January, coalition forces identified key facilities involved in these attacks, and agreed to conduct a carefully coordinated strike to reduce the Houthis’ capability to violate international law in this manner.

Four RAF Typhoon FGR4s, supported by a Voyager air refuelling tanker therefore used Paveway IV guided bombs to conduct precision strikes on two of these Houthi facilities. One was a site at Bani in north-western Yemen used to launch reconnaissance and attack drones. A number of buildings involved in drone operations were targeted by our aircraft.

The other location struck by our aircraft was the airfield at Abbs. Intelligence has shown that it has been used to launch both cruise missiles and drones over the Red Sea. Several key targets at the airfield were identified and prosecuted by our aircraft.

In planning the strikes, particular care was taken to minimise any risks to civilians, and any such risks were mitigated further by the decision to conduct the strikes during the night. The detailed results of the strikes are being assessed, but early indications are that the Houthis’ ability to threaten merchant shipping has taken a blow, and our commitment to protecting the sea-lanes, through which some 15% of the world’s shipping passes and which is vital to the global economy, has been amply demonstrated. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

11 Jan 24. Rishi Sunak statement on strikes against Houthi military targets. The Royal Air Force has carried out targeted strikes against military facilities used by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The Royal Air Force has carried out targeted strikes against military facilities used by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

In recent months, the Houthi militia have carried out a series of dangerous and destabilising attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, threatening UK and other international ships, causing major disruption to a vital trade route and driving up commodity prices. Their reckless actions are risking lives at sea and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.

Despite the repeated warnings from the international community, the Houthis have continued to carry out attacks in the Red Sea, including against UK and US warships just this week.

This cannot stand. The United Kingdom will always stand up for freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade. We have therefore taken limited, necessary and proportionate action in self-defence, alongside the United States with non-operational support from the Netherlands, Canada and Bahrain against targets tied to these attacks, to degrade Houthi military capabilities and protect global shipping.

The Royal Navy continues to patrol the Red Sea as part of the multinational Operation Prosperity Guardian to deter further Houthi aggression, and we urge them to cease their attacks and take steps to de-escalate. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

10 Jan 24. HMS Diamond and US warships repel largest Houthi attack to date in Red Sea. HMS Diamond, along with US warships, has repelled the largest attack by the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea to date, the Defence Secretary has announced.

Grant Shapps said the Type 45 destroyer shot down seven attack drones using her Sea Viper missiles and guns.

No injuries or damage was sustained to Diamond or her crew – the ship is in the region as part of an international coalition to protect shipping.

In a statement shared on X, Mr Shapps said: “Overnight, HMS Diamond, along with US warships, successfully repelled the largest attack from the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea to date.

“Deploying Sea Viper missiles and guns, Diamond destroyed multiple attack drones heading for her and commercial shipping in the area, with no injuries or damage sustained to Diamond or her crew.

“The UK alongside allies have previously made clear that these illegal attacks are completely unacceptable and if continued the Houthis will bear the consequences.

“We will take the action needed to protect innocent lives and the global economy.”

HMS DIAMOND, along with US warships, has repelled the largest attack by the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea to date.

Destroying multiple attack drones with her guns and sea viper missiles. pic.twitter.com/kFjFKj6TM6

— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) January 10, 2024

The US Central Command said 18 one-way attack drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by F/A-18 fighter jets from aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower, destroyers USS Gravely, USS Laboon and USS Mason, plus HMS Diamond.

Central Command said it was a “complex attack” launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the southern Red Sea, towards international shipping lanes where dozens of merchant vessels were transiting.

The command reported no injuries or damage and said this is the 26th Houthi attack on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea since 19 November.

The incident is the second time HMS Diamond has repelled attacks since being deployed to the Red Sea.

In December, Diamond used her Sea Viper missile system to shoot down a suspected attack drone believed to be targeting merchant shipping.

It was the first time since the Gulf War in 1991 that the Royal Navy had engaged and destroyed a hostile aerial target. (Source: forces.net)

11 Jan 24. French navy defends use of million-euro missiles to down Houthi drones. France’s maritime commander for the Indian Ocean defended the use of million-euro missiles to down drones used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack shipping in the Red Sea, citing the value of the lives and assets protected, and the sophistication of the threat.

The Languedoc frigate patrolling in the southern Red Sea in December shot down multiple drones using Aster 15 missiles, at a cost that defense analysts estimate at around €1m ($1.1m) per missile. The British Royal Navy’s HMS Diamond has also used the missiles to fend of drone attacks in the area.

The proliferation of cheap drones on the battlefield poses a challenge to Western navies, whose missile-based air defense tends to be effective but pricey. The economic calculus of ultra-capable interceptors, designed to counter expensive expensive anti-ship missiles or manned aircraft, quickly loses its appeal against drones costing thousands of dollars, analysts have warned.

“The cost is not that of the missile we use, but the cost of what we protect,” Vice Adm. Emmanuel Slaars said in response to questions by Defense News at Jan. 11 press briefing here. Slaars said there was “no doubt” the Languedoc was targeted in an incident early December when the warship used MBDA’s Aster 15 missiles to shoot down two drones coming from the direction of Yemen.

The commander said not all drones used by the Houthi’s are cheap loitering munitions, and some variants used for target observation are “quite sophisticated.” Downing reconnaissance drones can head off a more lethal attack, Slaars said.

The Houthi rebels are using shipping-tracking data to identify potential targets, then fly observation drones to scout vessels before attacking them with drones and anti-ship missiles, according to Slaars. The drone and missile technology being used by the Houthis is from Iran, “there’s no secret there,” the vice admiral said.

The Languedoc has been escorting French-flagged vessels or ships with “French interests” through the Red Sea independent of Operation Prosperity Guardian, Slaars said. When not on escort duty, the frigate is available to patrol zones assigned as part of the U.S.-led operation, though the Languedoc remains under French command at any time.

Italy is also operating a vessel in the Red Sea, while a Greek ship hasn’t arrived yet, according to Slaars, who is the commander of the French forces stationed in the United Arab Emirates as well as of the European-led maritime awareness mission in the Strait of Hormuz.

(Source: Defense News)

11 Jan 24. Israeli Special Forces Engage in Intelligence Activities in Sinai, Libya, and Sudan Amid Gaza Hostage Crisis. Israeli special forces are reportedly engaged in extensive intelligence activities across the Middle East, particularly in the Sinai Desert, Sudan, and Libya. These operations, as reported by various sources including Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese and pro-Hezbollah newspaper, are focused on thwarting potential smuggling attempts by Hamas from the Gaza Strip.

The intensification of these operations comes in the wake of ongoing Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) activities in Gaza. Israeli officials express concerns that Hamas might utilize their extensive tunnel networks to transport top leaders or hostages, potentially routing them to countries like Iran or Lebanon. Such a move would significantly complicate any rescue efforts and further escalate the regional conflict.

These fears are not unfounded. Reports suggest that there is a possibility of the hostages being transferred via these networks to other places in the region, eventually reaching countries hostile to Israel. The complexity of this situation is further heightened by the reported refusal of Cairo to allow IDF operations on Egyptian soil or in a buffer zone along the border, despite Israel communicating its suspicions of arms smuggling from Egypt to Gaza to both Egypt and the United States.

(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

09 Jan 24. Israel assassinates Hezbollah drone chief in air strike on Lebanon. Commander’s car targeted as he travelled to funeral of another senior military leader. The death of Ali Hussein Barji has been confirmed by Hezbollah CREDIT: Twitter/x

The head of Hezbollah’s combat drone operations has been killed by Israeli forces in a second high-profile assassination within 24 hours.

Ali Hussein Barji, who commanded the unit in southern Lebanon, was killed on Tuesday, Hezbollah said.

It came as Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, visited Israel to discuss plans for the future of Gaza once the war ends.

Barji’s car was targeted in an air strike on the town of Khirbet Selm where he had arrived for the funeral of Wissam al-Tawil, another senior Hezbollah commander, who was killed by a suspected Israeli strike on Monday.

The apparent assassination came hours before Hezbollah drones, believed to be under the command of Barji, hit an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) base in Safed, eight miles from the Lebanese border.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the US-based Middle East Institute, said his reported assassination was “another notch up the escalation ladder”.

The IDF has not commented on the strike. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

09 Jan 24. Hezbollah launches ‘revenge’ attack on Israeli base. The group said its drones had hit the military headquarters in Safed, northern Israel, as it moved to avenge the recent killings of deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut and senior Hezbollah commander Wissam Hassan Tawil in southern Lebanon.

Tawil, of the Iran-backed group’s elite Radwan Forces, was Hezbollah’s first senior military leader to be eliminated in three months of cross-border clashes with Israeli forces.

A source familiar with Hezbollah operations said it marked the first time the group had attacked Safed, some 8 miles from the border, since the hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border began in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 attack.

An Israeli army spokesperson said a northern base was hit in an aerial attack but there had been no damage or casualties. The spokesperson did not say precisely where the incident occurred. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

09 Jan 24. U.S. air strike foils rocket attack on Iraqi air base – sources. A U.S. air strike on a rocket launcher late on Monday foiled an attack on Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts U.S. and other international forces in western Iraq, two Iraqi army sources said.

Iraqi military sources said a rocket launcher fixed on the back of a small truck had been parked in a rural area about 7 km (4 miles) to the east of the base, with at least two rockets ready to be fired towards Ain al-Asad.

The U.S. air strike destroyed the launcher, an army official said.

U.S.-led coalition officials were not immediately available to comment on the strike.

The United States has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 more in neighbouring Iraq and says their mission is to advise and assist local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, which in 2014 seized large swathes of both countries but was later pushed back.

Since the Israel-Hamas war began last October, the U.S. military has come under attack at least 100 times in Iraq and Syria, usually with a mix of rockets and attack drones.

Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq and Syria oppose Israel’s campaign in Gaza and hold the U.S. partly responsible. (Source: Reuters)

07 Jan 24. Confidential US report finds Israel unlikely to win against Hezbollah on second front. The Defense Intelligence Agency found the IDF was overworked by constant raids on Gaza.

Israel is unlikely to win a war against the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah if it decides to open a new front on its northern border, according to a confidential report by US intelligence.

The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would be too stretched by fighting on two fronts, with the air force already overworked by constant raids on Gaza.

IDF pilots would face far more dangerous missions going up against Hezbollah’s powerful air defences, the DIA warned, according to a report in the Washington Post.

Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging cross-border fire on a daily basis since Oct 8, when the Lebanese group started operations in solidarity with Hamas.

On Sunday, the IDF said it had wrapped up combat operations in northern Gaza and completed the “dismantling” of Hamas’s command structure there.

Tens of thousands of troops have already been withdrawn from Gaza, with some already being redeployed to the northern front in the event war breaks out there.

Last week, Israel assassinated a senior Hamas official in a drone strike in Beirut, raising fears of a regional escalation. Hezbollah has since retaliated by launching at least 40 rockets into northern Israel.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, on Sunday met with the leaders of Jordan and Qatar on Sunday as he attempted to prevent a spill-over in the conflict.

He told reporters in Doha: “This is a moment of profound tension for the region. This is a conflict that could easily metastasise, causing even more insecurity and suffering.”

Mr Blinken was also tasked with reassuring the Arab state leaders that the US opposes the forcible displacement of civilians from Gaza.

Amos Yadlin, a former IDF military intelligence chief said on Sunday that Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, does not want another war given Lebanon’s fragility but the IDF was preparing for a wider conflict with the Iran-backed group.

“Hezbollah cares about Lebanon – they don’t want to see what is happening in Gaza to happen in Beirut, they don’t want to be seen as the ones who destroyed Lebanon,” Mr Yadlin said

“That said, we have to be careful – we don’t have the intelligence to read Nasrallah’s thoughts. The [IDF] northern command is not basing its activities and deployment on the assumption that Nasrallah doesn’t want a war.”

Fearing an attack from the north, Israel wants Hezbollah to comply with a long-standing UN resolution that requires its fighters to withdraw some 18 miles from the border.

Israel also violates the resolution by flying warplanes over Lebanon.

Israeli officials have said that a military escalation against Hezbollah is on the cards if negotiations over governance and security in southern Lebanon do not reach an acceptable agreement.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a IDF spokesman said late on Saturday: “We have a duty to defend our people, if not through diplomatic means, then through the force of arms.

“The diplomatic window may be short, but it’s still open.”

Amos Hochstein, a White House advisor who successfully brokered a maritime border agreement between Lebanon and Israel, was in the region last week seeking ways to avoid another Israel-Hezbollah war. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

08 Jan 24. Houthi rebels deploy UUV in Red Sea. Yemeni-based Houthi rebels have deployed and then blown up an explosives-packed Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) in the Red Sea’s international shipping lanes. The USV was believed to be targeting either merchant shipping using the Straits of Bab el Mandeb, or naval vessels trying to protect them.

While no ships were hit in this attack, the commander of US Naval Forces, Central Command, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper said that the persistent threat from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in an international shipping lane is a vital concern.

“Our assessment is that 55 nations have direct connections to the ships who’ve been attacked, whether through the flagging state, where the goods were produced or destined, or the nationalities of the innocent mariners aboard each vessel,” Cooper said.

“The impacts of these attacks stretch across the globe,” he said. “This is an international problem that requires an international solution.”

Since mid-November, Houthi rebels have launched 25 attacks against merchant vessels operating in the Red Sea. Those include the detonation of an unmanned surface vessel in international shipping lanes just a few days ago.

Cooper said that since the start of the Operation Prosperity Guardian, the US-led coalition has shot down 19 drones and missiles and sunk three small boats launched by the Houthis against vessels operating in the Red Sea.

Of the drones and missiles shot down, 11 were uncrewed, aerial vehicles; two were cruise missiles; and six were antiship cruise missiles.

About 1,500 merchant ships have safely transited the Red Sea since mid-December when the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, according to the US Navy. The operation is a multinational, maritime security initiative responding to the recent escalation in Houthi attacks originating from Yemen.

“We are certainly mindful of the continued threat and expect the Houthi attacks may continue,” he said.

The governments of the US, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand and the United Kingdom have issued a joint statement condemning the attacks and warned the rebel group against further escalation.

“Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing,” the statement read in part. “There is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels.”

The group of nations warned that the Houthis “will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and [the] free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.”

“We remain committed to the international rules-based order and are determined to hold malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks,” the statement concluded.

The multinational force in OP Prosperity Guardian will operate under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of Task Force 153, a US Navy-led initiative focused on maritime security in the Red Sea. (Source: https://www.ex2.com.au/news/)

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