26 Oct 24. Sibylline reported that at approximately 0230hrs (local time) on 26 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began conducting a series of strikes inside Iran. Footage circulating on social media indicates that several explosions occurred near the capital Tehran, including in the vicinity of Imam Khomeini International Airport (TEH). At the time of writing, the Iranian authorities have not commented on the strikes; they have not mentioned the possible material damage to targeted locations or any resultant casualties. Local media sources in Syria also reported on strikes targeting Damascus and Homs governorates (both Syria); IDF aircraft also reportedly flew at low altitudes over Iraq.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The strikes come amid significantly elevated regional tensions due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. On 1 October, Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel, causing minor damage to three air bases (see Sibylline Middle East Crisis Update – 3 October 2024).
- Following a period of elevated tensions, Iran fired over 300 missiles and drones towards Israel on 13-14 April. In response, Israel allegedly conducted airstrikes against Isfahan (Isfahan province, Iran) and Tabriz (East Azerbaijan province, Iran) on 19 April. Iran did not ascribe blame for these strikes, moderately reducing regional tensions (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 22 April 2024).
- At the time of writing, the target(s) of the latest airstrikes remain unclear. However, the IDF claims that its attacks primarily targeted military infrastructure.
FORECAST
There is a realistic possibility that Israel will launch additional strikes on Iranian targets in the coming hours, sustaining security and bystander risks nationwide. In the coming hours, there is a realistic possibility that further airstrikes will target Iranian military infrastructure, particularly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assets. Nearby civilian population centres will face substantially elevated security and collateral risks due to strike debris and possible secondary explosions. While unlikely overall, it is possible that the IDF will also target communications and data centres associated with the IRGC and Iranian security forces, many of which are located in residential areas. Any such strike would significantly elevate the threat to nearby assets and civilians, particularly in densely populated areas. To limit any media coverage of potential strike-related damage to IRGC locations, the authorities will likely restrict movement to and from targeted locations in the coming days, disrupting travel and supply chain continuity, particularly in Tehran.
Iran is unlikely to retaliate with direct strikes against Israel in the coming days, though regional tensions will remain substantially elevated. An immediate Iranian strike against Israel remains highly unlikely at the time of writing. In the coming hours, the Iranian authorities will begin to assess possible damage to targeted locations, particularly military positions. In the event of critical damage to military or IRGC infrastructure, personnel casualties, damage to dual-use infrastructure and/or civilian casualties, a direct Iranian response will become more likely in the coming weeks. The risk of further clashes between Israel and Iran will almost certainly further exacerbate regional tensions and increase the risk of armed conflict, undermining regional stability.
Iran’s numerous regional proxies will likely escalate their attacks against Israel in the coming days, increasing pressure on Israeli air defence systems and elevating security and bystander risks. Iran-backed groups such as Lebanese Hizballah (LH), the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) and the Yemen-based Houthis will likely launch missile and drone attacks against Israel in the coming days. Although rocket and drone attacks will likely continue primarily targeting locations in northern Israel, particularly Haifa (Haifa district), sporadic attacks targeting cities in central Israel, particularly Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), will remain highly likely. Intensified rocket attacks and drone incursions will increase pressure on air defence systems, increasing the likelihood of successful strikes and driving elevated security and bystander risks throughout Israel. Even in the event of successful interceptions, shrapnel from munitions and interceptors will also elevate the collateral risks facing staff and assets. (Source: Sibylline)
The Daily Telegraph reported that Israel’s attack on Iran is ‘an escalation’, warns Hamas.
Hamas has condemned Israel’s attack on Iran as an “escalation”, calling it a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and a threat to regional security.
“We strongly condemn the Zionist regime’s aggression against Iran which targeted military sites in several provinces,” Hamas said on Saturday.
“This is a clear violation of Iran’s sovereignty and an escalation aimed at undermining regional security and the security of its people,” the terrorist organisation added.
Israel hit multiple military targets across Iran in the early hours of Saturday in a long-awaited retaliation for missile barrage from Iran at the start of the month. The terror group blamed Israel and the US for any fallout of the strikes, which targeted at least three Iranian provinces.
“We hold the occupying regime, backed by the US, fully responsible for the consequences of this aggression,” Hamas said.
26 October 2024 9:28am
9:28AM
Israel’s worked in ‘close coordination’ with US, according to source
Israel conducted a “calculated” attack on Iran’s military sites in “close coordination” with the United States, a source familiar with the issue told The Telegraph.
“The attack was extensive but designed in such a way that it showed the Israeli public that Iran was hit hard, but at the same time giving Iran a chance to chose not to respond,” said the source, reported by Jotam Confino in Tel-Aviv.
“Israel was encouraged about the UK’s reaction, which reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself.,” the source added. “Israel is looking to wrap up the war in Gaza and bring the hostages home”
9:14AM
Russia gave Iran heads up hours before Israeli strikes began
Sky News Arabia, quoting an unnamed source, said that Russia warned Iran ahead of the impending Israeli airstrikes this morning.
The report said that the intelligence was provided hours before Israel announced the waves of strikes on Iranian military targets.
9:13AM
US vows to defend Israel after largest ever direct attack on Iran
The US has vowed to defend Israel after it launched a direct attack on Iran in a double wave of airstrikes across the country.
Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, told his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant that the US would defend Israel from “threats from Iran and Iran-based terrorist organisations” and that it was determined to prevent escalation in the Middle East.
Mr Austin “reaffirmed” the US’ “ironclad commitment… to Israel’s security and self-defence”.
Israel hit multiple military targets across Iran in the early hours of Saturday in a long-awaited retaliation for missile barrage from Iran at the start of the month.
A senior official in US President Joe Biden’s administration said that Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran was “targeted and proportional with a low risk of civilian harm”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)