01 Oct 24. Sibylline reported tonight that at 1930hrs (local time) on 1 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that Iran had launched missiles towards Israel. The launch has triggered sirens across Israel, while flights to and from Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV, Israel) have been grounded. Local media reports indicate that Iran has fired over 140 ballistic missiles towards Israel. However, there is a realistic possibility that Iran has also launched hyper-sonic missiles. Video footage indicates that the IDF intercepted a significant number of missiles, including in the airspace above Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district). However, the missiles’ targets remain unclear at the time of writing.
SIGNIFICANCE
* At approximately 1655hrs, the IDF announced that the US had warned that Iran was preparing cruise and ballistic missiles for an ‘imminent’ and direct attack.
* The strike comes hours after the IDF launched a ground operation into southern Lebanon against Lebanese Hizballah (LH, see Sibylline Alert – 1 October 2024); it also follows previous threats made by Iran that it would retaliate for the assassination of Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (Iran) in July (see Sibylline Alert – 31 July 2024).
* After the IDF struck a building at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus (Syria) in April, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel. However, the IDF and its allies intercepted the majority of munitions before they entered Israeli airspace (see Sibylline Alert – 14 April 2024). While the current strike appears similar in scale, it is likely to be viewed as a more significant move than the April strike given the current tensions and the ordnance involved.
FORECAST
There is a realistic possibility of further strikes in the coming hours, either by Iran or its numerous regional proxies, including the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), the Yemen-based Houthis and LH. Further direct or co-ordinated strikes will likely target locations near major population centres, such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district). While adherence to Home Front Command guidelines will mitigate against critical threats to life, target misidentification, interceptor shrapnel and the possible use of unguided munitions will sustain substantial security risks in civilian population centres, particularly near military bases.
In the coming hours, regional flight operations will likely remain significantly disrupted; access to commercially available evacuation routes will be restricted. Flights to and from Ben Gurion International Airport will likely remain suspended in the coming hours, while regional airspace closures and flight diversions are also possible. These measures will almost certainly increase travel delays and restrict access to commercially available evacuation routes. Disruption to GPS services is also likely to impact overland movement and short-term supply chain continuity.
In the coming days, Israel will almost certainly respond to the attack. The nature and scale of Israel’s retaliation will likely depend on the extent of the damage to infrastructure, as well as the casualty count and whether the IDF determines that Iran targeted civilian population centres. The US is also highly likely to maintain an elevated posture in the region. It will possibly help to facilitate increased strikes on Iranian proxies. However, we assess that the US’ participation in a direct strike on Iran remains unlikely at present.
(Source: Sibylline)