14 Apr 24. Sibylline reported that on 13 April, at approximately 2300hrs (Israel time), Iran began launching waves of drones and cruise missiles towards Israel estimated to total approximately 100 ordnance. Additionally, unconfirmed reports claim large forces of pro-Iran Iraqi militias gathering on the Iraq-Syria border. Israeli officials announced the closure of Israel’s air space between 0030hrs to 0730hrs, cancelling all domestic and international flights into and from Israel. Shortly after the Iranian launches, pro-Iranian militias in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq announced that they would also participate in the attack(s). However, at the time of writing, there is no indication of their direct involvement. Lastly, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a large attack in southern Lebanon, likely to reduce Lebanese Hizballah (LH) capabilities and ability to join the Iranian attack.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Severe security risks across Israel are likely to continue over the coming 24 hours, with security risks in regional countries likely to also remain elevated.
- The attack elevates risks of regional escalation and an armed conflict involving Israel, Hizballah in Lebanon, Iran and the US.
- Airspace closure in Israel and neighbouring countries will disrupt flights and travel across the region in the coming 24 hours.
FORECAST
Drones will likely reach Israel within six to nine hours, elevating security risks across the region. The IDF will likely begin intercepting drones in Jordanian, Lebanese and/or Syrian airspace. Nevertheless, there is a realistic possibility that numerous drones will enter Israeli airspace, elevating collateral risks associated with drone interception and shrapnel. There is also a realistic possibility that Iran has launched cruise missiles towards Israel, which would arrive within approximately two hours. The drones and/or missiles will likely primarily target IDF, substantially increasing physical security risks in locations in proximity to IDF bases and command centres. Interception of drones and missiles before reaching Israel will elevate security risks in regional countries due to shrapnel and debris, particularly in Jordan, Syria and Iraq.
Airspace closures will almost certainly remain in place over the coming hours, while GPS disruption will likely continue disrupting overland movement. As the drones approach Israel, the airspace over Israel and Jordan will almost certainly remain closed, significantly disrupting commercial flight activity. Airlines are also highly likely to temporarily suspend flight services to Iraq, Jordan and Syria. IDF efforts to intercept drones and missiles will almost certainly include further GPS disruption, also limiting overland navigation and further disrupting movement throughout the region.
The IDF will likely escalate strikes on locations associated with Hizballah and allied militants in Lebanon and Syria to prevent co-ordinated strikes designed to overwhelm Israeli air defences. These will elevate security and bystander risks in these areas, particularly in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, strikes are likely to result in retaliation, particularly from LH, further elevating security risks in northern Israel. LH retaliation will further elevate risks of major armed escalation with Israel, elevating further risks of rocket launches across Israel including towards central Israel. (Source: Sibylline)
US Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III
13 Apr 24. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Iran’s Strikes Against Israel. At the direction of President Biden, U.S. forces in the Middle East on April 13 intercepted dozens of missiles and UAVs en route to Israel, launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Our forces remain postured to protect U.S. troops and partners in the region, provide further support for Israel’s defense, and enhance regional stability.
We condemn these reckless and unprecedented attacks by Iran and its proxies, and we call on Iran to immediately halt any further attacks, including from its proxy forces, and to deescalate tensions. We do not seek conflict with Iran, but we will not hesitate to act to protect our forces and support the defense of Israel.
I am grateful for the professionalism and the skill of the brave U.S. troops who took part in today’s actions and who continue to stand guard to prevent further conflict or escalation. I will continue to monitor the situation closely and to consult with our allies and partners.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant for a second time today to reiterate ironclad U.S. support for Israel’s defense in light of Iran’s unprecedented attack from Iranian territory. Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant praised the extraordinary defensive measures and strong cooperation undertaken to defeat this Iranian attack against Israel. Secretary Austin again stated clearly that Israel could count on full U.S. support to defend Israel against any future attacks by Iran and its regional proxies.
(Source: U.S. DoD)
UK Military Activity in the Middle East
13 Apr 24. In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government has been working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks.
In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government has been working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks.
We have moved several additional Royal Air Force jets and air refuelling tankers to the region. These will bolster Operation Shader, which is the UK’s existing counter-Daesh operation in Iraq and Syria. In addition, these UK jets will intercept any airborne attacks within range of our existing missions, as required.
We will continue to cooperate closely with our regional partners in the interest of de-escalation. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)