20 Apr 15. Iran: Next Battleground for Arms Deals? Arabian Gulf countries are closely watching Iran’s anticipated re-integration into the international community as it may develop into a Russian-Chinese-Western battleground for arms sales, regional experts said. Since the announcement of the Lausanne agreement, Russia has lifted its weapons exports ban to Iran and announced it will supply the S-300 missile system purchased in 2010. And on April 5, the head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, Asadollah Asgaroladi, announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Iran in the “near future,” according to the Fars press agency. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries disapprove of this Russian arms sale,
“I believe the view in gulf capitals [is] that the S-300 agreement has been made too soon and it may be, for a number of reasons, like Russia trying to strengthen its relations with Iran, Russia trying to show its independence of the American political influence in the region, or even the Russians trying to pave [the] way for deals with Iran ahead of the nuclear agreement signing,” he said.
Despite Russia and the GCC tendering a strong relationship since 2009, where the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have struck a number of arms deals with their Russian counterparts, Iran remains Russia’s largest customer in the region. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the recent Russian-Iranian reversal of the S-300 export ban has been due to the nuclear agreement, signaling Russia’s intent to intensify arms sales to Iran ahead of competition.
“Initially, the decision to suspend the implementation of the contract, which was already signed and came into force, was made in September 2010,” he told Russian news agency TASS. “It was done in the interests of support for consolidated efforts of the six international negotiators to stimulate a maximally constructive process of talks on settlement of the situation around Iran’s nuclear program.”
Asgaroladi stated in the announcement of the Chinese president’s visit that China is looking to increase its annual trade with Iran from $52bn to $60bn.
“Asia is a hot market more for Russia than China with sales to countries such as Malaysia and India, but the competition is also showing a mixed sales picture of various types of systems that are, at the end of the day, interoperable,” said Theodore Karasik, a gulf-based geopolitical affairs consultant.
“The Chinese-Russian competition in Asia, when it comes to arms, is not in sales,” he said. “It’s in technology and politics. Over the past decades, both Moscow and Beijing have engaged in a race, if you will, for sales of equipment versus modified technology.”
Karasik said Iran is actually a nexus of Chinese-Russian cooperation.
“The Chinese-Russian calculus regarding Iran is all about integration because of ongoing shifts in the geostrategic environment, the Chinese-designed ballistic and cruise missiles complement other inventory of Russian-designed small arms, and now anti-aircraft systems are the norm,” he said.
“The Chinese approach is unique to Beijing where Norinco, Aviation Industry Corp. of China, Poly Technologies and China South Industries Group outsmart the competition by selling package deals that fit the requirements of the current tactical environment where Chinese political and economic interests are most intense,” Karasik added.
Sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry believe Iran is unlikely to start buying Western and US weapons once the sanctions get lifted, said Yuri Barmin, a Russian political and military analyst.
“Tehran would be better off purchasing Russian arms and there are in fact existing contracts that need to be implemented first,” Barmin said.
Igor Korotchenko, the head of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade, assessed that Iran needs $11bn to $13bn in Russian arms, Barmin said.
“Iran has an ambitious program to rearm its Army, and Russia could become Tehran’s main arms su