20 Feb 24. Defence Connect today reports that Australia has announced a major Fleet Review. Under the plan, the Australian Defence Force’s 26 major surface combatants will consist of three Hobart Class air warfare destroyers with upgraded air defence and strike capabilities, six Hunter Class frigates, the 11 new general purpose frigates, six new large optionally crewed surface vessels, six remaining Anzac Class frigates with the two oldest ships to be decommissioned as per their planned service life, and 25 minor war vessels to contribute to civil maritime security operations, including six offshore patrol vessels.
“This significant advancement in Navy capability that will be delivered under this plan requires a strong, sovereign defence industry,” said Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy. “This plan ensures Navy’s future fleet can meet our strategic circumstances by delivering a larger and more lethal fleet sooner and secures the future of naval shipbuilding in Australia, supporting 3,700 direct jobs over the next decade and thousands of indirect jobs for decades to come.”
Surface fleet review: Urgency, distributed firepower and numbers key to delivering Aussie naval power
Naval power is now front and centre for the Albanese government, with an emphasis on urgency, distributed firepower, and numbers set to transform the Royal Australian Navy. But has the surface fleet review truly delivered this and what are we now getting?
Providing bountiful avenues for trade, a source of food, and ancient foundation myths – from the earliest days of human settlement in Australia – the ocean has played an ever-increasing role in the fabric of every day Australian life.
In contemporary life, this has only become more important, as the largest island continent on the planet with a maritime jurisdiction in excess of eight million square kilometres, Australia, as a nation and a people, is defined by its relationship with the ocean.
The importance of this link to the regional and global maritime commons has only become more important over the last half-decade, as COVID and mounting global tensions off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas have now spread to engulf the Middle East.
Further compounding this is Australia’s uneasy relationship with the historic concept known as the “tyranny of distance” which is now rapidly being replaced by a “predicament of proximity”.
The rise of this “predicament of proximity” has only been accelerated by the rapid and unprecedented expansion of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy under Xi Jinping’s ambitious and aggressive new reimagining of Communist China.
Recognising this fundamental strategic and tactical reality, the Albanese government’s Defence Strategic Review has moved to reshape the Royal Australian Navy into a flexible, future-proofed force capable of meeting the tactical and strategic operational requirements placed upon the service by the nation’s policymakers.
At the core of this renewed emphasis, the review stated, “Australia’s Navy must be optimised for operating Australia’s immediate region and for the security of our sea lines of communication and maritime trade.”
In doing so, it gave birth to the Independent Analysis into Navy’s Surface Combatant Fleet, colloquially known as the surface fleet review, spearheaded by US Vice Admiral (Ret’d) William Hilarides to determine the makeup of the Navy surface fleet to complement the arrival of Australia’s future nuclear-powered submarine fleet.
The Defence Strategic Review summarises this, stating the need for “an enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet, that complements a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine fleet, is now essential given our changed strategic circumstances”.
Following nearly a year of speculation, which reached fever pitch in recent months, the surface fleet review is finally here. There are some winners, some losers, and some long-held beliefs left in tatters as the government seeks to transform Australia’s naval capability.
Devil is in the details
As with all things, the devil is in the details, with the independent review identifying “that we need a surface fleet of warships with greater capability in integrated air and missile defence, multi-domain strike and undersea warfare. These are the capabilities needed to support critical activities, including patrolling our northern approaches, close escort and theatre sea lift missions”.
Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles stressed that the plan outlined in the independent review would mark a major “acceleration” of the Navy’s shipbuilding pipeline and plan with an expanded surface combatant fleet to better position the nation’s response and resilience in the face of mounting regional threats.
As part of this, Australia will acquire a fleet of nine “Tier 1” ships, made up of the existing Hobart Class destroyers and a scaled back six Hunter Class frigates “of the current design”, providing a complementary and interlocking strike, air and missile defence and anti-submarine warfare capability.
Australia’s fleet of Hobart Class destroyers will undergo their planned combat system upgrades, which will see their Aegis combat system from Baseline 8 to the Baseline 9 standards.
This isn’t without its trade offs however, with the review identifying that the reduction of “Tier 1” vessels from 12 to nine will require an acceleration of the replacement for the Hobart Class destroyers, with “initial requirements setting and design work will need to commence by mid-2027”.
Finally, the “Tier 1” ships will be rounded out by the acquisition and local construction of six large optionally crewed surface vessels (LOSVs) with 32 vertical launch cells and will rely on a minimum of Aegis Baseline 9 or later to ensure these vessels are interoperable with the Hobart Class, post-modernisation, and the Hunter Class from the beginning of service.
While these “Tier 1” ships will serve as the “frontline” or “real pointy end” of the Navy’s surface fleet capability, their limited number will see a fleet of “at least seven, and optimally 11” “Tier 2” ships as a Transition Capability Assurance (TransCAP) with the vessels “optimised for undersea warfare, to operate both independently and in conjunction with the Tier 1 ships to secure maritime trade routes, northern approaches and escort military assets”.
Four potential designs have been identified by the review as suitable for filling the “Tier 2” role, with Germany’s Meko A-200, Japan’s Mogami 30FFM, South Korea’s Daegu FFX Batch II and III, and Spain’s Navantia ALFA 3000 all in the running to fill this role, with the first three of the successful design to be built abroad to accelerate entry into service by the end of the decade.
As part of this TransCAP, Australia will steadily scale back the existing fleet of ageing Anzac Class frigates, with the oldest two vessels to be decommissioned as per their original planned life.
The review stated that the phased approach to the decommissioning of the Anzac Class, “will ensure that retained Anzac Class frigates will maintain the minimum viable capability for the Tier 2 mission until replaced by the new Tier 2 surface combatants. The number of Anzac Class frigates to undertake TransCAP is to be determined by the date the Tier 2 acquisition program is commenced”.
This approach will also see the formalisation (at least in part) to a more permanent and “militarised” fleet responsible for the maritime border patrol and civil maritime security operations, culminating in a fleet of “25 minor war vessels” that will include “Navy’s requirement for six Arafura Class offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) and eight Evolved Cape Class patrol boats (ECCPBs), and 11 ECCPBs for Australian Border Force (ABF)”.
Additionally, the review articulates that the Evolved Cape Class patrol boats “best meets the operational need of the constabulary force in the conduct of civil maritime security operations”, while the Arafura Class OPVs are designated as an “inefficient use of resources for civil maritime security operations and does not possess the survivability and self-defence systems to contribute to a surface combatant mission”.
This shift will see the OPVs reduced from the planned 12 to six and transitioned from their initial planned role to focus on “civil maritime security operations and enhanced regional engagement in the Southwest Pacific and maritime Southeast Asia” while also providing a “surge capacity” to support “civil maritime security operations surge requirements in lieu of Tier 1 and Tier 2 surface combatants”.
However, the question, as with all Defence announcements of recent years, is the funding question, particularly in light of revelations that the government had “discovered” “in excess of $25 billion in unfunded cost pressures in the surface fleet acquisition and sustainment program” as planned.
Any plan is only as good as its funding
Given the proposed growth of the Australian Navy’s surface combatant fleet, we can expect that the corresponding funding would necessitate an expansion in the spending for the Navy.
As part of this, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy confirmed that the “the Albanese government has committed to increase Defence’s funding in the 2024–25 federal budget over the next decade to ensure the enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet is fully funded”.
This will see the government “’inject” an additional $11.1bn of additional funding over the next decade to “support the realisation of the enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet” and will be additionally supported by an “updated” Naval shipbuilding and sustainment plan to be released later in 2024.
This will also see the government invest an additional $1.7bn over the forward estimates, apparently generated by the early retirement of the two oldest Anzac Class frigates and cuts to the Arafura Class program, with a total figure of $38bn expected to be invested in the Navy’s “enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet” over the next decade.
Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy reinforced the importance of this spending program, stating, “This additional investment of $11.1bn over the next decade will provide confidence to industry and financial security for thousands of hardworking Australians.”
However, I am a little confused, as in this media release stated, “This additional $11.1bn of funding for the future surface fleet alone brings both acquisition and sustainment investment in the fleet to $54.2bn in total over the next decade.”
Meanwhile, the department’s own fact sheet, titled, “A larger & more lethal Australian Navy” stated the conflicting, “The Australian government will invest an additional $1.7bn over the forward estimates and $11.1bn over the next decade in Navy’s surface combatant fleet and Australia’s shipbuilding industry. This brings the overall investment in acquisition of Navy’s enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet to $38bn over the next decade.”
So which is it?
Final thoughts
It goes without saying that we will be interrogating the minutiae of the surface fleet review over the coming months; however, it is important to recognise that the real work begins now.
Additionally, as part of this interrogation, we have to ask, have we got the balance right? Have we got the fleet disposition right? Or are there better alternatives for us to consider to maximise the efficacy and lethality of the Navy and broader Australian Defence Force as part of delivering “Impactful Projection” as articulated by the Deputy Prime Minister?
Ultimately, this comes back to the government’s shift away from a “Balanced Force” towards a “Focused Force” as championed in the Defence Strategic Review and the foundational problem that is our lack of clearly defined role and objectives for our own Defence capabilities.
This reality equally fails to account for the planned increase in ADF personnel by 2040 and places ultimate hope in a series of as yet to be developed autonomous systems, cyber or tactical weapons like HIMARs and others that are being shoehorned into fulfilling “strategic” roles to provide both “impactful projection” and deterrence against “any potential adversary”.
Importantly, no one has said that defending the nation in this era of renewed and increasingly capable great power competition will be cheap or easy and we have to accept that uncomfortable reality, because the alternative outcome is infinitely worse.
Australia commits to modern and lethal general purpose frigates
The Australian federal government has announced the intended acquisition of 11 new general purpose frigates to complement the country’s combat-ready fleet of warships.
The 11 new general purpose frigates will provide maritime and land strike, air defence and escort capabilities, according to information released by the government in a statement on 20 February.
The new general purpose frigates will be accelerated to replace the Anzac Class frigates commissioned in the 1990s and early 2000s, with planned transition capability assurance upgrades no longer required.
The new general purpose frigates will be modern, capable and more lethal, requiring smaller crews than the Anzac Class (177 crew members). Eight new general purpose frigates are planned to be built at the Henderson precinct in Western Australia.
Current Anzac Class vessels include HMAS Anzac and sister frigates HMAS Arunta, Ballarat, Parramatta, Perth, Stuart, Toowoomba, and Warramunga.
“The enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet will ensure the Navy is optimised for operations in our current and future environment, underpinned by the meticulous assessment conducted by the Independent analysis team,” according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles. “Australia’s modern society and economy rely on access to the high seas: trade routes for our imports and exports, and the submarine cables for the data which enables our connection to the international economy.
“The Royal Australian Navy must be able to ensure the safety and security of our sea lines of communication and trade routes as they are fundamental to our way of life and our prosperity.”
The first general purpose frigates are expected to enter service with the Royal Australian Navy by the end of the decade, Minister Marles said.
Minister Marles said the first three vessels will be built offshore in the interest of speedy acquisition. Four potential designs are up for evaluation from Spain, Germany, South Korea, and Japan; the design decision will be made next year, he said.
The new general purpose frigates will be approximately the same size to 50 per cent bigger than the Anzac Class, with twice as many missiles, Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said.
The four platforms identified by the independent analysis as exemplars to form the basis of a selection process for this new general purpose frigate include Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems’ Meko A-200 frigate, the Mogami 30FFM Japanese multi-mission stealth frigate, the South Korean Daegu class FFX Batch II and III, or Navantia’s ALFA3000 (Tasman Class Corvette, announced at IndoPac 2023).
Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Mark Hammond said the size, lethality and capabilities of the future surface combatant fleet ensure that the Royal Australian Navy is equipped to meet the evolving strategic challenges of the region.
“A strong Australia relies on a strong navy, one that is equipped to conduct diplomacy in our region, deter potential adversaries, and defend our national interests when called,” he said. (Source: Defence Connect)
Australia’s defence industrial base to grow
Ex2 reported that Australia’s defence industrial base to grow with surface fleet announcement. The Australian Government’s blueprint for the RAN’s expanded, more lethal surface combatant fleet is intended to support a sovereign continuous naval shipbuilding program and deliver direct investment in a capable, resilient and competitive defence industrial base, Defence says.
An updated Naval Shipbuilding and Sustainment Plan will be released this year. Meanwhile, the Government will increase Defence funding by $11.1bn over the next decade from the 2024-25 Federal Budget, in May this year, to ensure the enhanced lethality surface combatant fleet is funded.
Australian shipbuilders and industry will be at the centre of delivering this future fleet, says Defence: the investment is designed to provide a clear pipeline of work and set the conditions for job creation, technology investment, export opportunities, supply chain resilience, infrastructure enhancement and economic prosperity.
Over the next ten years, this investment will support more than 3,700 direct jobs and deliver the critical infrastructure required at the Osborne shipyard in South Australia and Henderson shipbuilding complex in Western Australia, delivering on the Government’s commitment to continuous naval shipbuilding.
“The innovation and ingenuity of our dynamic defence industry is critical to the Albanese Government’s plan to deliver four times as many warships in the next 10 years compared to what had been planned by the previous government,” said Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy. “This additional investment of $11.1 billion over the next decade, will provide confidence to industry and financial security for thousands of hard-working Australians.”
Under this plan, the Albanese Government will enter into a build contract for the Hunter-class frigates that sees construction at the Osborne shipyard start this year, with the final Hunter frigate to be delivered by 2043. The Hunter-class will be immediately followed by construction of the replacement for Navy’s Hobart-class destroyers.
In South Australia, the construction of the Hunter-class frigates will sustain at least 2,000 jobs and create at least 500 new jobs over the next decade. Combined with more than 4,000 estimated jobs created to build the new Submarine Construction Yard in South Australia and the more than 4,000 direct jobs to build conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines in Australia, Osborne will be at the epicentre of a naval shipbuilding jobs revolution in this country, Defence says.
In Western Australia, consolidation of the Henderson precinct is currently underway, as recommended by the Defence Strategic Review (DSR). Successful and timely consolidation will enable eight of the new general-purpose frigates to be built there and will also enable a pathway to build six new Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels (LOSVs) in Western Australia.
This is in addition to the strategic shipbuilder pilot which will see Army’s Landing Craft Medium and Heavy (Littoral Manoeuvre Vessels) as well as two new Evolved Cape-Class Patrol Boats built at Henderson by Austal Ships. These projects will create at least 1,200 new local jobs over the next decade.
The planned Transition Capability Assurance (TransCAP) upgrades to the eight ANZAC-class frigates will not proceed: the accelerated acquisition of a new general purpose frigate allows for a more cost effective and lethal capability outcome, Defence says.
Two ANZAC-class vessels will be decommissioned and the remainder will be upgraded with enhanced maritime strike capabilities. Defence says it will work with industry partners to redeploy the Anzac class sustainment workforce across the Henderson precinct. (Source: https://www.ex2.com.au/news/)