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29 Jan 26. Niger: Likely militant attack on airport underscores increasing attack risks in capital. On 28 January, unknown gunmen, equipped with unidentified explosives, launched an attack in the vicinity of the capital Niamey’s Diori Hamani International Airport (NIM). The attack was repulsed but casualty figures have not yet been released. The airport serves as a base for the Niger Air Force and as the headquarters for the United Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (FU‑AES). Footage of the incident shows that the facility’s air defences were activated, indicating the possible use of drones. Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it was likely perpetrated by the al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Since 2023, JNIM has progressively expanded its area of operations in western Niger and has substantially developed its drone capabilities in Mali and Burkina Faso. In the coming weeks, JNIM will likely attempt to leverage these capabilities to conduct further attacks in and around Niamey, particularly during the Ramadan period (17 February – 18 March). Locally engaged staff will face increased risks of exposure to crossfire and explosions, while further drone incursions into Nigerien airspace will increase risks of periodic disruption to commercial aviation. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Jan 26. US: De-escalation of rhetoric surrounding Greenland will sustain elevated regional tensions. On 21 January, President Donald Trump announced he was suspending planned 10% tariffs on Denmark and seven other European allies, previously scheduled to go into effect on 1 February. The tariffs, originally announced on 17 January, were in response to these allies sending a military contingent to Greenland amid Trump’s threats to acquire the semiautonomous region of Denmark. Trump also ruled out the use of force to acquire Greenland and suggested that a framework for a future deal between the US and NATO was underway. At the time of writing, it is unclear what the framework for a future deal contains and whether Greenland has approved of it. We assess that the US will likely seek NATO agreements regarding critical mineral extraction and military matters (largely to mitigate Chinese and Russian influence in the western hemisphere); if agreements on these issues cannot be reached, talks will likely break down. In the near term, shifting discourse from the US around Greenland will sustain elevated regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Jan 26. Philippines: Armed encounter highlights continued latent militant threat in Mindanao. On 28 January, a spokesperson for the Philippine Army’s 90th Infantry Battalion announced that one soldier was killed and one was injured on 27 January in an armed encounter with the Dawlah Islamiyah (DI)-Hassan Group in Datu Hoffer (Maguindanao del Sur province, Bangsamoro region). The exchange of fire occurred in the mountainous areas of Datu Hoffer after villagers reported the militants’ presence, prompting the security forces to launch an operation. In all, four militants were reportedly injured, with the authorities stating that operations will continue against the faction. DI – which is aligned with the Islamic State (IS) – has had its capability significantly reduced in recent years due to persistent pressure from the security forces. The latest incident highlights that security risks stemming from militant groups will persist in the Bangsamoro region of Mindanao despite the overall improved security environment. We assess that the upcoming regional parliamentary elections (which were again postponed on 28 January) are a potential trigger for an increase in activity from militant groups. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Jan 26. Pakistan: Likely imminent counter-terrorism operation will increase displacement, humanitarian risks. On 28 January, around 70,000 of the total 150,000 residents of Tirah (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) had reportedly fled the region. This follows reports of an imminent counter-terrorism operation by the military against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) positions. The exodus began after mosque announcements in December 2025 urged residents to leave the town by 23 January to avoid a potential conflict. Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, has denied claims from the provincial authorities that there is no military operation planned in the province. However, military officials maintain that targeted counter-terrorism operations will continue in the province, alleging that the TTP takes refuge in Tirah and uses residents as human shields. We assess that residents will likely continue to vacate Tirah in the coming weeks due to a likely counter-terrorism operation, increasing internal displacement and humanitarian risks. Additionally, there is a realistic possibility of revenge attacks by the TTP, which will further elevate security risks. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jan 26. Denel ‘not fit to support the national defence force.’ “A company that cannot reliably pay staff cannot credibly support the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) nor can it claim to safeguard strategic defence capabilities” is a scathing summation of Denel nearly missing January salary payments for two of its divisions. Chris Hattingh, a Democratic Alliance (DA) representative on both the Joint Standing Committee on Defence (JSCD) and the Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV), has it the salary payment issue to staff at Denel Dynamics and ammunition manufacturer Pretoria Metal Pressings (PMP) was not surprising.
“This,” he said, “is the predictable outcome of years of failed governance, collapsed accountability and the unresolved legacy of state capture”.
“Denel was hollowed out during the state capture years: leadership was compromised, finances were abused, skills were lost and credibility with clients collapsed. That damage was severe.
“But what is now happening goes beyond history. Years later and after repeated bailout packages and turnaround promises, Denel still cannot meet its most basic obligation to its workers. Since 2019, Denel has received bns of rand in direct bailouts and guarantees. Much of this funding was meant to stabilise operations and enable recovery.
“Yet employees are again being told salaries may not be paid, raising serious questions about where the money went, whether turnaround plans were ever properly implemented and who is being held accountable for failure,” a statement has Hattingh saying.
Arguably Denel’s most visible failure is Project Hoefyster, a new infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) to replace the long-serving Ratel.
It’s now 19 years since a development contract was entered into with Denel, to be executed by Lyttelton, Centurion-based Denel Land Systems (DLS), for five engineering variant development models including logistics, ammunition and simulators of the new IFV, named “Badger”, the English translation of Ratel. Last November the PCDMV heard the first phase of the contract was set down for completion in May 2012 with Denel unable to meet the deadline. In turn this affected phase two of the project – industrialisation and production – with delivery scheduled for 2019 and then shifted to 2023. The deadlines, the PCDMV heard, “have slipped” with delays attributed to, among others, financial challenges experienced by Denel from 2016, technical complexities, under-estimation of the software qualification process/effort, extensive re-testing and development cycles, high staff turnover and cost escalation.
Denel’s “move” from the no longer existent Department of Public Enterprises (DPE) last April to Minister Angie Motshekga’s Ministry of Defence and Military Veterans changed nothing, Hattingh maintains.
“Denel has not been ‘incorporated into the SANDF’. Moving shareholder oversight does not magically fix weak financial controls, poor execution or the absence of consequence management,” Hattingh is on record saying.
He goes further stating non-implementation or “diverted funding” of apparently approved recovery plans and “so-called ring fenced interventions” mean nothing to workers left in limbo.
“Denel’s slow collapse is how strategic capability is lost, not with a bang, but through repeated crises, unpaid salaries, and the steady loss of skilled people. The DA will demand full transparency on the use of bailout funds, clear evidence of implementation, and accountability for those responsible. We will insist on full disclosure of where the money went, who failed to implement approved recovery plans, and why workers are again paying the price for executive and political failure,” Hattingh concluded.
The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) also weighed in on the near non-payment of Denel Dynamics and PMP salaries. On Sunday it said Denel managing to pay salaries provides welcome relief to employees and their families.
However, COSATU remains concerned about the state of these divisions and the broader Denel group. “Workers at these two divisions were informed earlier in the week that they may not be paid. Management needs to take workers into their confidence about the implementation of Denel’s turnaround plan, how the substantial financial support from government has been utilised, and what is being done to fulfil its backlog of orders to clients,” said Matthew Parks, COSATU Parliamentary Coordinator.
“Workers need assurance that this will not happen again next month and that management will ensure that Denel is truly on the path to recovery from the dark chapter of state capture and will return to its rightful place as the leading defence industry company in the continent and a global leader.
“It is critical that the Ministry and Department of Defence actively fulfil their oversight role for Denel and not simply rely upon good wishes and glossy presentations from management. This needs to include a close partnership with Armscor and the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, as well as major domestic customers such as the South African National Defence Force, Police Service, Correctional Services and other law enforcement arms of the state and the private security and arms industry. This partnership is critical to reviving the defence and aviation masterplan,” the trade union said.
COSATU pledged to continue to offer its support to workers at Denel and said the company can and must be turned around as the state capture chapter is dismantled. “Its turnaround will be an important catalyst to the revival of South Africa’s lucrative defence industry and the sustaining and creation of thousands of badly needed jobs.”
COSATU General Secretary Solly Phetoe said the days of bailouts are over, and Denel has to fix the hard and fundamental challenges facing it. “The key to Denel’s return to the path of sustainability and profitability has to include the appointment of competent management and leadership, the removal of corrupt elements, the plugging of financial leakages, the recruitment of skilled staff and the honouring of workers’ rights.”
“Equally important to providing Denel a sustainable path to recovery and growth is to revive and ramp up our local procurement campaigns. This must be anchored by the revival of the defence and aviation industrial masterplan,” Phetoe said.
State entities can procure arms, munitions; land, sea and air vehicles; clothing and protective gear, and other materials from Denel while the private security and defence sectors must be partners in this journey. Private security companies alone with more than 500 000 security guards must procure their arms, munitions, vehicles, communications and protective gear from Denel. Local procurement is the bedrock of any industry, Phetoe continued.
“Denel’s world quality products have helped it to secure an impressive order book from across the world. Management needs to ensure that it honours these often-lucrative contracts in full. Reports of Denel securing bids, receiving payments and then failing to deliver the products or having to be chased by clients and even dragged to court, must come to an end. Such antics cause severe reputational harm to Denel and will eventually catch up with it. Robbing Peter to pay Paul has never been a sound economic model.
“Denel over the years has been close to securing very lucrative orders across the world for Rooivalk, armoured personnel carriers or artillery systems; only to be pipped at the post by other suppliers after pressure was placed by the governments of far more powerful nations for contracts to be given to their companies.
“This is an unfortunate reality of real politic and the unequal geo-political balance of forces. It necessitates strategic partners between Denel and South Africa and complementary arms manufacturers in similar likeminded countries.
“Particular attention must be given to the African continent where Denel’s products are tried, tested and best suited, especially armoured personnel carriers providing optimal protection to soldiers from landmines.
“Green shoots reported by Denel in 2025 gave workers hope that it was back on track. We hope that the scare of this past week will not recur, but we must remain vigilant. Accountability is essential.
“South Africa has a wonderful state-owned enterprise in Denel. One that was built over decades with the blood and sweat of its workers. It represents the best of South African intellectual and technical ingenuity. Its products are highly sought across the world, from developed to developing countries.
“It needs dedicated focus and support, in particular to weed out corruption and mismanagement and through a ramped-up localisation plan from the sector.
“Denel’s management must appreciate that its turnaround can only be achieved with an honest relationship with its staff, by honouring its legal obligations to its employees, by investing in these workers and tapping into their experience and expertise.
“If these can be done, not only will be Denel be returned its glory days but it will once again play a leading role in unlocking South Africa’s industrial potential, economic growth and decent jobs,” Phetoe concluded.
(Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
27 Jan 26. South Sudan: Conflict escalation in Jonglei state will significantly increase threats to staff, civilians. On 25 January, the national military, the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF), issued evacuation orders for all civilians and NGO personnel in Akobo, Nyirol and Uror counties (all Jonglei state). The SSPDF issued the orders ahead of the planned launch of Operation Enduring Peace, which aims to retake territory within Jonglei currently controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO). In early January, the SPLA-IO launched a renewed offensive in Jonglei and has taken control of several key positions along the Pibor Highway, which connects to the state capital Bor. In the coming days, the SSPDF’s initiation of combat operations will almost certainly trigger high-intensity clashes with SPLA-IO units and aligned militias in eastern Jonglei. Civilians will face significantly elevated risks of exposure to crossfire, explosions and indiscriminate airstrikes. Deteriorating security conditions will almost certainly trigger further displacement within South Sudan, increasing pressure on already-strained NGO services and exacerbating food insecurity. Overcrowding at displacement camps and limited access to sanitation facilities will also increase risks of communicable disease outbreaks, compounding public health concerns. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jan 26. Kenya-Somalia: Cross-border attack highlights elevated security risks in border regions. On 26 January, al-Shabaab militants killed a local chief and a teacher in Hulugho (Garissa county, Kenya), approximately 10 miles (16km) from the Somali border. The incident follows an uptick in al-Shabaab activity along the Kenya-Somalia border in recent months, including an attack in November 2025 which killed two Kenyan border patrol officers. Despite intensified security deployments, the porous border facilitates the infiltration of al-Shabaab militants who frequently target local chiefs due to their communal influence and perceived co-operation with the security forces. In the coming days, the Kenyan security forces will likely escalate their security posture across Garissa. This will likely include the erection of security checkpoints on major highways, disrupting overland movement. Amid al-Shabaab’s escalating offensive in central and southern Somalia, we assess that further attacks in Garissa, Lamu, Mandera and Wajir counties are likely in the coming months. Attacks will likely consist of cross-border raids targeting Kenyan security force positions, driving risks of exposure to crossfire in proximity to police stations in towns and villages. This will also drive exposure to IEDs and kidnap risks during overland movement. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Jan 26. Bangladesh: Clashes between opposition parties underscore ongoing unrest risks. On 25 January, clashes between supporters of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) in Chuadanga (Khulna division) injured at least 14 people. The incident occurred after JI activists allegedly offered money in exchange for votes during door-to-door campaigning, triggering protests from BNP supporters. This follows previous incidents of clashes between JI and BNP supporters in the capital Dhaka in recent days. The unrest comes after campaigning began on 22 January for the upcoming general election on 12 February (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 23 January 2026). We assess that further violent clashes between supporters of rival political parties are highly likely in the coming days, particularly outside JI and BNP offices, driving proximate unrest and road closure risks. These risks will increase if incendiary statements by the JI and BNP leadership continue against each other. However, security measures will be heightened in the coming days, which will likely limit the scale of these incidents. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Jan 26. Myanmar: Completed general election unlikely to significantly decrease security, sanctions risks. On 25 January, Myanmar held the third and final round of its general election in 63 townships. In the first two phases, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured 193 of 209 seats in the lower house, and 52 of 78 seats in the upper house. As the military is also allocated a set quota of seats, it will certainly hold effective control over the legislature. The junta held the election, which was neither free nor fair, to legitimise its rule following the 2021 military coup (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 22 December 2025). The popular National League for Democracy (NLD) party was ineligible to run. Military government leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is highly likely to retain significant influence and will possibly become the president. We assess that the election will not decrease the risk of armed conflict, as the military has not reclaimed rebel-controlled territories. Western countries are broadly likely to retain sanctions against junta-affiliated personnel and firms. However, there is a realistic possibility that the US will avoid making overt criticism of the election results in an attempt to obtain access to local rare earth deposits. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Jan 26. UK Typhoons sent to protect Qatar amid fears of Iranian strike. Qatar’s chief diplomat cautioned against complacency in Davos, with fresh fears of another Iranian strike.
- The UK has responded to a call from Qatar to deploy Typhoons from the jointly operated 12 Squadron for “defensive purposes”
- Qatar’s top diplomat urged for a climbdown in regional tensions amid fears of a renewed military exchange between the US and Iran
- Iran has previously targeted Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts US and UK military personnel, amid fears the cornered regime could repeat their show of force
The UK Royal Air Force (RAF) deployed four FGR4 Typhoons to Qatar amid fears of a renewed missile exchange between the US and Iran. British jets were sent for “defensive purposes” noting regional tensions as part of the UK-Qatar Defence Assurance Agreement. Struggling to put down protests cropping up across Iran, a deadly government crackdown drew the ire of US President Donald Trump, emboldened by his raid into Venezuela, as he threatens to intervene. The fragile situation risks a repeat of another military exchange between the two countries, with fears that the Islamic Republic may once again target US bases in the region, such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Qatar’s chief diplomat Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani cautioned against complacency in the Middle East, warning that positive developments such as the de-escalation in Gaza do not, alone, indicate stability in the region. A climbdown in tensions, particularly concerning Iran, is the best course of action, Al Thani intimated in a subtle speech. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
26 Jan 26. China: High-profile military purges will undermine combat readiness, reduce short-term conflict risks. On 24 January, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that General Zhang Youxia, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and CMC Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli were under investigation for ‘serious disciplinary and legal offences’. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s official newspaper, the PLA Daily, claimed that the two individuals had ‘seriously abetted political and corruption problems’. They will almost certainly be dismissed. Since he came to power in 2012, President Xi Jinping has engaged in an anti-corruption campaign targeting the military, which has accelerated in recent years. This is arguably Xi’s most significant purge as Zhang is the highest-ranking general in the PLA. It represents a hollowing out of the PLA’s leadership, with only one member of the normally seven-person CMC (other than Xi) likely to remain in post. This raises significant questions about the PLA’s immediate combat readiness, given the level upheaval in a short period of time. We assess that these developments reduce the risk of a conflict in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait in the short-to-medium term. However, it also highlights Xi’s attempts to assert absolute control over military strategy and command. (Source: Sibylline)
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