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Military And Security Developments
Feb 15.
KEY POINTS
• A spike in cross-border attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border, including heavy Israeli airstrikes into southern Lebanon, has increased the risk of rocket barrages targeting population centres across northern Israel in the coming days.
• There is a realistic possibility that Israel will expedite the deployment of its forces into Rafah ahead of an International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on South Africa’s petition for provisional measures to halt the expansion of ground operations, substantially elevating physical security risks and disrupting aid disruption.
• Gaza: On 15 February, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began raiding the Nasser hospital in Khan Yunis, underscoring the elevated risks facing civilians and medical staff in southern Gaza. The IDF has stated that Hamas militants are hiding in the hospital, and that bodies of Israeli hostages are also potentially located in hospital facilities. Beyond elevating bystander risks to civilians and medical staff within the hospital, the raid is highly likely to further escalate international criticism. Additionally, there is an elevated risk of domestic unrest and an uptick in pro-Palestine protests in countries across the region in the coming days, particularly during Friday prayers on 16 February.
• West Bank: Elevated ethno-religious tensions continue to drive clashes and sole-perpetrator attacks, increasing security risks throughout the West Bank. On 13 February, Israeli security personnel shot and detained a Palestinian sole perpetrator who attempted to run over civilians in a car-ramming attack near the Israeli settlement Gush Etzion (Bethlehem governorate). The police later found a knife in the car, indicating that the perpetrator also likely aimed to carry out a stabbing attack; this underscores the elevated risks facing civilians in the West Bank, particularly in proximity to Israeli settlements. On 14 February, unidentified militants fired small arms at Meirav, a kibbutz located in Israel’s Northern district which borders the West Bank. Both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have claimed responsibility for the attack, which did not result in any injuries or casualties. Similarly, incidents of violence by Israeli settlers are also increasing. They threaten to exacerbate the risk of retaliatory attacks. On 12 February, Israeli settlers attacked and destroyed Palestinian vehicles in several incidents across Nablus governorate; they also attempted to carry out an arson attack on a building in Asira al-Qibliya (Nablus).
• Israel-Lebanon: Cross-border clashes have substantially escalated over the past 24 hours, with an uptick in rocket fire and airstrikes exacerbating already-heightened physical security and bystander risks. On 14 February, Lebanese Hizballah fired multiple rocket salvos into northern Israel, targeting the Northern Command headquarters in Safed and the Meron airbase (both Northern district). Rocket fire killed an IDF soldier in Safed and injured at least eight civilians. The attack came shortly after a previous rocket salvo targeted Kiryat Shmona (Northern district) on 13 February, injuring two civilians. In response, the IDF conducted intense airstrikes against southern Lebanon, hitting locations deep into Nabatieh and South governorates on 14 February. Lebanese media reports indicated that the IDF’s airstrikes killed at least three Lebanese Hizballah militants (including a senior commander) and ten civilians (including two minors). The escalation of clashes over the past 24 hours underscores the significant physical security and bystander risks in locations close to the Israel-Lebanon border; the emergence of more civilian casualty figures will drive the risk of further escalation.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Lebanese Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah continues to reject calls to withdraw forces from the Israel-Lebanon border, sustaining elevated cross-border tensions. In a televised speech on 13 February, Nasrallah repeatedly stated that Lebanese Hizballah would not withdraw from its positions. The speech was effectively a rejection of the 12 February French ceasefire proposal, which called for Lebanese Hizballah to withdraw its forces at least six miles (10km) from the Israel-Lebanon border. Lebanese Hizballah’s continued presence on the Israel-Lebanon border, which defies UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (which ended the 2006 Israel-Hizballah War in Lebanon), will sustain the risk of cross-border clashes with the IDF.
• On 12 February, South Africa asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to issue provisional measures to halt the IDF’s planned advance into Rafah. The request forms part of South Africa’s case against Israel under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. South Africa has called for the ICJ to issue immediate provisional measures to halt the expansion of ground operations into Gaza without oral proceedings. Such a measure would be legally binding and would significantly increase pressure on Israel to moderate its operations in southern Gaza. Similarly, on 14 February, the prime ministers of Ireland and Spain requested that the European Commission review whether Israel is in breach of human rights obligations included in its association agreement with the EU, which facilitates trade relations. As the ICJ case progresses, we assess that Israel will likely face increasing international legal pressure to limit its operations throughout Gaza amid elevated risks to international trade agreements.
• Hamas shell company operations in Belgium underscore the elevated compliance risks facing the NGO sector amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza. On 14 February, Belgian Justice Minister Paul Van Tigchelt confirmed that Hamas is actively operating a network of shell companies in Belgium to fund its operations in the Palestinian Territories and to facilitate financial transfers. Tigchelt noted that Hamas raises funds through numerous fronts, including networks of fraudulent humanitarian organisations supposedly soliciting donations for Gaza. This announcement underscores significant compliance concerns for charitable organisations operating in Belgium and likely predicates increasing scrutiny of NGOs that solicit donations for charitable causes in Gaza.
Feb 12.
KEY POINTS
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rescued two hostages from Rafah (southern Gaza) ahead of the threatened expansion of IDF ground operations in the area, elevating the likelihood of barriers to a ceasefire agreement in the coming week.
• A spike in IDF drone strikes against Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas senior personnel in Lebanon is likely to drive an escalation in missile barrages targeting northern Israel in the coming week.
• Israel’s credit rating downgrade by Moody’s ratings agency over the impact of the Israel-Hamas war and the government’s fiscal decisions will elevate the risk of similar downgrades by other agencies.
• Gaza: Overnight on 11-12 February, the IDF, supported by the Shin Bet security agency and counter-terrorism police units, successfully rescued two Israeli-Argentinian hostages from Hamas in Rafah (southern Gaza). The operation was co-ordinated with heavy airstrikes to prevent the movement of Hamas forces in the area. These tactics are designed to minimise IDF casualties; they highlight the elevated security and bystander risks in Rafah during future IDF raids.
• On 11 February, an IDF spokesperson for the Arab media, Avichay Adraee, claimed that the Al Jazeera journalist Muhammad Washah also serves as a senior Hamas military operative. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Adraee provided photographic evidence allegedly found on Washah’s laptop, which was reportedly recovered in northern Gaza. According to Adraee, Washah serves as a senior military operative in Hamas’ anti-tank missile array and moved in 2022 to work in the research and development (R and D) of aerial weapons for the organisation. The allegations highlight the likely elevated security risks for press staff within Gaza.
• West Bank: Palestinian sole-perpetrator attacks and instances of Israeli settler violence are increasing ahead of Ramadan amid elevated tensions around persistent IDF operations. On 11 February, a sole perpetrator attempted to stab Israeli security force members in Jerusalem’s Old City near the Lions Gate. In their attempts to neutralise the attacker, IDF troops’ ricochet fire injured a bystander. The incident underscores the elevated collateral risks near Israeli security force positions in the West Bank and Jerusalem area. Additionally, on 11 February, a group of approximately 15 Israeli settlers threw stones at Palestinian vehicles near the Bizzariya Palestinian village in the West Bank. According to Israeli news, the settlers smashed the windshield of a car and sprayed the Palestinian driver with a tear gas. Increasing Israeli settler violence will likely raise security risks in the West Bank and drive further violence, particularly during Ramadan (10 March-9 April).
• Israel-Lebanon: Hostilities between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah have increased notably in recent days following a series of IDF assassinations in Lebanon. The IDF conducted drone strikes in Lebanon on 8, 10 and 12 February. Of the three, only the 10 February strike targeted a Hamas member; the rest targeted Lebanese Hizballah commanders. Additionally, the strike on 10 February was one of Israel’s deepest strikes into Lebanon since the start of the war; it targeted an area in Jadra (Mount Lebanon governorate), approximately 37 miles (60km) north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Following the IDF drone strike on 8 February, Lebanese Hizballah retaliated, firing a barrage of 30 rockets towards northern Israel; most fell in open areas and the rest were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome. Following the 12 February strike, retaliation by Lebanese Hizballah is likely, elevating security and bystander risks in northern Israel in the coming days, particularly near IDF bases and positions.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• On 8 February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire proposal from Hamas, though negotiations continue. The US has reportedly sent CIA director William Burns to Cairo (Egypt) to assist with negotiations, while Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has travelled to Doha (Qatar) to participate in concurrent Qatari-mediated negotiations. As the IDF prepares to expand its operations into Rafah, negotiators continue to face elevated pressure to reach an agreement, particularly before Ramadan begins on 10 March.
• The UK’s sanctioning of several Israeli West Bank settlers underscores the moderately elevated compliance risks facing financial institutions with operations in Israel. On 12 February, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced that it would sanction four Israeli settlers associated with human rights abuses in the West Bank. In a similar move to the US, which imposed sanctions on four settlers on 1 February (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 2 February 2024), the sanctions include travel and financial restrictions against affected individuals. Continued efforts to sanction West Bank settlers will elevate compliance concerns for financial firms with operations in Israel, driving legal and reputational risks stemming from anti-money laundering and terrorism financing regulations.
• Moody’s downgrading of Israel’s credit rating underscores decreasing investor confidence and broader economic concerns. On 9 February, the credit rating agency Moody’s lowered Israel’s rating from A1 to A2 and changed its economic outlook to ‘negative’. Moody’s attributed the rating change to the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Israel’s fiscal strength and its increasing public debt ratio, as well as broader concerns over elevated political and security risks. The rating change subsequently triggered a moderate dip in stocks on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange when trading began on 11 February. While the rating change does not indicate significantly elevated risks of economic instability, persistent concerns over the durability of ceasefire negotiations and/or their implementation, as well as ongoing clashes along the Israel-Lebanon border, will likely continue to undermine investor confidence in the coming weeks.
• Protests in Morocco underscore elevated diplomatic tensions with Israel, though a suspension of the Abraham Accords remains unlikely. On 11 February, approximately 10,000 protesters gathered in the capital Rabat, calling for the government to withdraw from the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalised diplomatic relations with Israel. While the protests highlight increasing domestic pressure on the government to break off relations with Israel, an immediate withdrawal from the agreement remains unlikely, moderating risks to bilateral trade and investment. Even so, as IDF ground operations continue, further protests are highly likely, particularly in Casablanca (Casablanca-Settat region), Fez (Fes-Meknes region), Marrakesh (Marrakesh-Safi region) and Rabat, driving elevated bilateral tensions in the coming weeks.
• A court in the Netherlands has halted the export of aircraft parts to Israel, citing concerns over the violation of international humanitarian law by the IDF. On 12 February, an appeals court ruled that the Dutch government cannot authorise the export of US-made F-35 fighter jet parts from warehouses in the Netherlands to Israel, citing concerns over the significant civilian casualties associated with Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. The case underscores elevated risks of supply chain disruption for firms involved in exporting military hardware to Israel, and also increasing compliance risks for defence and technology firms associated with Israel, particularly as the IDF prepares to expand its ground operations into Rafah. The Dutch government has announced that it will appeal the decision. Developments in the case will likely act as flashpoints for increased protest activity in major population centres, including the capital Amsterdam and the Hague (South Holland province), though demonstrations will likely remain broadly peaceful.
*Yemen-US: Designation of Houthis as terror group is unlikely to stop Red Sea attacks. The US designation of the Iran-backed and Yemen-based Houthis as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT) will enter into force on 16 February. The SDGT designation will make it illegal for US citizens to provide financial or material support to the group; it will also freeze Houthi assets in the US. This is likely to complicate the work of NGOs providing humanitarian support in Yemen, elevating compliance risks for organisations and individuals. As such, we assess that there is a realistic possibility that the enforcement of the designation will further increase food insecurity in Yemen in the coming months. The Houthis are unlikely to reduce their attacks in the Red Sea as a result of the designation, as their exposure to international markets is already low. However, there is a realistic possibility that the designation will allow the US to increase sanctions on Iranian-affiliated companies that support the Houthis, elevating compliance risks for financial institutions that facilitate transfers for or which are otherwise involved with such companies, possibly through third parties. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Feb 24. IRGC launches ballistic missiles from ship. Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched ballistic missiles from a ship for the first time, the force announced on 13 February.
Iranian news agencies reported that the launch was a collaboration between the IRGC’s naval and aerospace forces and involved missiles from the Fateh family. A video released by the IRGC shows two missiles elevated on launchers in containers on the deck of Shahid Mahdavi, a commercial container ship that the IRGC Navy (IRGCN) commissioned into service as a multi-purpose support vessel in March 2023. Both missiles were then seen being launched, followed by footage showing at least one target on land being hit. (Source: Google/Janes)
13 Feb 24. USMC Pilots Intercepts 7 Houthi Drones In The Red Sea, Sparking Ace Status Debate. In a report by the BBC, Captain Earl Ehrhart, a US Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II pilot, has claimed the downing of seven Houthi explosive drones during operations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, conducted from the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan. If these claims are verified, Ehrhart would be recognized as the first American “ace” since the Vietnam War, a title prestigiously reserved for pilots who achieve five or more aerial combat victories.
The operations highlighted the adaptability and innovation involved with responding to the Houthi threats. “We took a Harrier jet and modified it for air defense. We loaded it up with missiles and that way were able to respond to their drone attacks,” Ehrhart explained to BBC. This tactical adjustment was crucial in effectively countering the drone assaults by the Houthi rebels, whom Ehrhart described as “a robust and capable force.” The success of these missions underscores the technological and strategic advancements made by US military forces to maintain superiority in increasingly complex combat environments.
The United States Air Force has criteria for awarding aerial victory credits that encompass the destruction of enemy aerial vehicles, whether manned or unmanned, armed or not. This policy indicates a recognition of the evolving nature of aerial threats and combat, extending the possibility of achieving “ace” status to engagements with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Historically, there is precedent for awarding ace status in unconventional contexts. During World War II, Lt. Frank Luke, known as the “Arizona Balloon Buster,” was credited with destroying 14 German observation balloons before his death in combat. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
12 Feb 24. Dutch court orders halt to export of F-35 jet parts to Israel. A Dutch appeals court on Monday ordered the government to block all exports of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel over concerns they were being used in violations of international law during Israel’s Gaza offensive.
It said the state had to comply with the order within seven days and dismissed a request by government lawyers to suspend the order pending an appeal to the Supreme Court.
“It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law,” the court said.
The government said it would file an appeal at the Supreme Court, as it said the order had crossed the state’s responsibility to formulate its own foreign policy.
“The delivery of U.S. F-35 parts to Israel in our view is not unjustified,” Trade Minister Geoffrey van Leeuwen said.
He said the F-35s were crucial for Israel’s security and its ability to protect itself from threats in the region, “for example from Iran, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon”.
Van Leeuwen said it was too early to say what effect the verdict would have on Israel.
“We are part of a big consortium of countries that are also working together with Israel, we will talk to partners how to deal with this.”
The decision to appeal was unrelated to the “very concerning” situation in Gaza, he added.
Israel’s massive aerial and ground offensive in the densely populated Gaza Strip has killed more than 28,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run enclave’s health authorities, and displaced most of its 2.3 m people from their homes.
Israel denies committing war crimes in its attacks on Gaza, which followed the Hamas cross-border raid on southern Israel on Oct. 7 in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and around 240 were taken hostage.
Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy could not comment on the case specifically, but said Israel expects allies “to stand firmly by our side as we fight to bring Hamas to justice in the wake of the October 7 massacre”.
In a separate legal case in January, the U.N.’s top court, the International Court of Justice, ordered Israel to take action to prevent acts of genocide in its war against Hamas. The ruling prompted renewed calls by human rights groups to ban weapons’ exports to Israel.
The case against the Dutch government was brought by several human rights groups, including the Dutch affiliate of Oxfam, last December.
“We hope this ruling will strengthen international law in other countries so that the citizens of Gaza are also protected by international law,” Oxfam Novib director Michiel Servaes said in a statement.
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
In a first ruling in December, a Dutch lower court had stopped short of ordering the Dutch government to halt the exports, even though it said it was likely that F-35s contributed to violations of the laws of war.
But where the lower court ruled the state had a large degree of freedom in weighing political and policy issues to decide on arms exports, the appeals court said such concerns did not trump the clear risk of breaches of international law.
The appeals court also said it was likely the F-35s were being used in attacks on Gaza, leading to unacceptable civilian casualties. It dismissed the Dutch state’s argument that it did not have to do a new check on the permit for the exports.
The Netherlands houses one of several regional warehouses of U.S.-owned F-35 parts, from which the parts are distributed to countries that request them, including Israel in at least one shipment since Oct. 7.
The government said it would try to convince partners it would remain a reliable member of the F-35 program and other forms of international and European defence cooperation.
Presiding Judge Bas Boele said there was a possibility the Dutch government could allow the export of F-35 parts to Israel in future, but only on the strict condition they would not be used in military operations in Gaza. (Source: Google/Reuters)
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