25 May 16. The NATO Summit in Warsaw has to chart NATO’s future course in the face of significant instability. The Alliance faces simultaneous dangers from its east, south and south-east. It is also confronted with several broader security challenges, most of them global in scope and unbound by geography.
- NATO should renew its commitment to a successful strategy of deterrence (through credible defence) and détente (through dialogue). For Putin’s Russia, it is not NATO strength and cohesion that is provocative, but rather the Alliance’s weakness and lack of determination. NATO should therefore exploit the flexibility offered by the NATO-Russia Founding Act to the fullest extent possible and strengthen its capabilities to defend the NTA collectively. It should also repeat its commitment to nuclear deterrence aiming at the prevention of any use of nuclear weapons. NATO should consider establishing additional NATO-owned and operated multinational component forces such as the Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) programme, whilst further improving the deployability of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) throughout the NTA and in its periphery. Simultaneously NATO should offer Russia a renewed dialogue on mutual stability aiming at the restoration of the 1990 Charter of Paris principles.
- NATO should develop a comprehensive strategy for the security and defence of its southern and south-eastern regions and their peripheries. Such a strategy has to enhance existing Article 4 provisions, and include swift and well-tailored responses (also in the form of military deployments) to military and non-military threats before they reach the level of Article 5. The instruments of choice would be multinational NATO forces capable of cooperating with regional partners from the south and southeast through enhanced partnership arrangements. There is also a need for improved NATO-EU cooperation and enhanced partnerships with the African Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
- NATO should signal its commitment to contributing to the management of crises beyond the NTA under the provisions of Article 4. Crises outside the Treaty area will in today’s interconnected world impact on the security and stability of all NATO nations, including the two North American allies. Therefore NATO has to state with utmost clarity that the security of all its members is indivisible and that this commitment requires resolute answers and full solidarity by all members if and wherever necessary.