• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • COMTECH banner

BATTLESPACE Updates

   +44 (0)77689 54766
   

  • Home
  • Features
  • News Updates
  • Defence Engage
  • Company Directory
  • About
  • Subscribe
  • Contact
  • Media Pack 2023

The US, Europe and the Iran nuclear deal: is there a sweet spot? By Simon Gass |Former Political Director at the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Former Ambassador to Iran

March 19, 2018 by Julian Nettlefold

 

 

 

In his statement on 12 January, President Trump made clear that he will not renew sanctions waivers on Iran unless what he sees as key flaws in the 2015 nuclear deal are fixed. The US Administration is trying to persuade other parties to the agreement to help address US concerns. The focus is on the agreement’s European signatories, particularly France, Germany and the UK – the E3.

Yet the Europeans strongly support the agreement.  And Iran is complying with the agreement in every material respect. There is no chance that Iran would agree to renegotiate aspects of the deal and there is a risk that unilateral attempts to impose further burdens on Iran would lead to Iran walking away, blaming the US.

Can this impasse be resolved? If it is not, a reversion to dangerous confrontation between Iran and the US is easy to imagine.

This paper argues that, despite this unpromising background, there are ways for Europeans to address President Trump’s concerns in a manner that would not lose Iran – provided both sides want to find a solution.

The elements of a European approach might include:

  • Public European acknowledgement that if Iran were to return in future to an unlimited and practically inexplicable nuclear programme which revived fears of a covert military programme, then the collaborative approach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would be seriously, perhaps fatally, undermined.
  • E3/US agreement that there should be purposeful discussions with Iran about this before the agreement’s next key stage in 2023 (“Transition Day”), perhaps initiated by the EU High Representative, reporting to the ministers of parties to the agreement.
  • Agreement to commit resources to support monitoring of continuing Iranian compliance with the JCPOA and to be clearer about what would happen if Iran was believed to be in breach.
  • Joint warning of the consequences if Iran were to develop a genuine inter-continental ballistic missile.
  • In return, a positive US commitment to making the deal work and to fulfilling its JCPOA commitment not to stand in the way of Iran deriving economic benefits from the lifting of sanctions.

A solution on these lines might be less than the US would like and more than Iran thinks fair. But both sides will have to weigh their options if the JCPOA disintegrates. The US would not welcome another nuclear crisis; nor would resolution of issues like North Korea be eased if the US was seen to renege on an agreement which it entered voluntarily. If the US withdrew from the JCPOA, a deep wedge would be driven between the US and some of its closest partners. And, if Iran revived its enrichment programme, untrammelled by the JCPOA, the US would face troubling policy choices.

Iran for its part would have to consider the international, economic and domestic political implications of abandoning a deal that offers the best external hope of providing the economic boost which Iran needs, even if the benefits have been slower to materialise than they expected.

Whether political leaders in Washington and Tehran would accept a solution similar to that outlined here will depend on many factors. But in any case, they should be pressed to answer a simple question: if the JCPOA is lost, then what happens?

The opinions articulated above represent the views of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Leadership Network or any of its members. The ELN’s aim is to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address pressing foreign, defence, and security challenges.

Filed Under: News Update

Primary Sidebar

Advertisers

  • qioptiq.com
  • Exensor
  • TCI
  • Visit the Oxley website
  • Visit the Viasat website
  • Blighter
  • SPECTRA
  • Britbots logo
  • Faun Trackway
  • Systematic
  • CISION logo
  • ProTEK logo
  • businesswire logo
  • ProTEK logo
  • ssafa logo
  • AtkinsRealis logo
  • IEE
  • EXFOR logo
  • sibylline logo
  • Team Thunder logo
  • Commando Spirit - Blended Scoth Whisy
  • Comtech logo
  • GoExporting logo
  • ECHODYNE logo
  • Supercat logo
  • Galvion logo
  • Leonardo DRS logo
  • MTC logo
  • IDC logo
  • IDC logo
Hilux Military Raceday Novemeber 2023 Chepstow

Contact Us

BATTLESPACE Publications
Old Charlock
Abthorpe Road
Silverstone
Towcester NN12 8TW

+44 (0)77689 54766

BATTLESPACE Technologies

An international defence electronics news service providing our readers with up to date developments in the defence electronics industry.

Recent News

  • EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

    September 21, 2023
    Read more
  • MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE

    September 21, 2023
    Read more
  • CONTRACT NEWS IN BRIEF

    September 21, 2023
    Read more

Copyright BATTLESPACE Publications © 2002–2023.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. If you continue to use the website, we'll assume you're ok with this.   Read More  Accept
Privacy & Cookies Policy

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Non-necessary
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
SAVE & ACCEPT