The first Commentary, in this revived series, was a memo to the Prime Minister stressing the centrality of Defence to the well-being of the UK. This Commentary is addressed to the members of the House of Commons Select Committee for Defence (HCDC). The duty of Select Committees is to scrutinise the Department they are examining. This is a vital component of our parliamentary democracy. However, given that the international situation is no longer as benign as it was until February 2022, the role of the HCDC has assumed a much more important status.
The new HCDC that has been constituted following the result of last year’s General Election has begun to undertake its studies of the work of the MOD, just as it should do. However, it risks getting lost in the weeds of scrutinising the minutiae of the MOD’s work, and seems to be continuing to work at the languid pace of its predecessor. Scrutiny of the Department’s work is essential, but given the state of the world, the HCDC must address the readiness of the Armed Forces to fight a war; what the US Armed Forces refer to as ‘fight tonight’. Are we ready? Is industry ready? Are the Reserves ready?
In this new era the first priority of the MOD is to ensure that the UK is a credible and reliable ally. The outbreak of war in Europe shows that deterrence must be credible. The increased costs of improving the UK’s readiness and resilience will be cheaper than the cost of reconstruction should this country be subject to attack by ballistic missiles, of having our undersea energy supplies and communications cut, or our sea lanes disrupted.
Difficult choices
At the Berlin Security Conference in November 2024, no less than seven NATO chiefs of Defence Staffs, including the CDS from the UK agreed that the Alliance needed to increase its level of defence expenditure. Most of our NATO Allies are having the same conversations as is happening in the UK; pressure on public finances combined with an expectation from the public that Government will deliver the level of public services that befits first world economies. The chiefs all stated that now is the time for governments to have a proper conversation with their publics and explain why defence expenditure must increase. Not because Donald Trump says so, but because of the threat we face in Europe and around the world.
In the UK our democracy is based around the Houses of Parliament and in particular the directly elected House of Commons. This is the place where the conversation must be held. As well as their duties on the HCDC, MPs have the opportunity to question both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Simply increasing the level of defence expenditure is not sufficient. There must be scrutiny on how tax payers’ money is spent. This work can be combined with the work of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) and the National Audit Office (NAO). Too often calls from the HCDC for increased resources are answered by MOD ministers who say that they will have a conversation with their Treasury counterparts.
Inter-departmental pass the parcel, regarding resources for Defence, is no longer realistic in the current international environment. The HCDC must look to arrange a method of joint working with both the PAC and the NAO to ensure that pledges made by ministers are followed through. If this requires an amendment to its powers under Standing Order 152 of the House of Commons, the chairman should arrange for this to happen.
Moreover, the HCDC should increase the pace of its work. The current threat environment plus the rapid changes in technology mean that inquiries should be undertaken and evidence called for concurrently so that reports can be produced more speedily. Similarly the MOD must respond more swiftly, the security of the nation and of our Allies is at stake. By doing this, the HCDC would demonstrate that it takes its responsibilities seriously. Membership of this committee is not a sinecure, it is a means by which a crucial element of our national security is held to account.
In addition to which, the HCDC must challenge the service chiefs on their stewardship in office. It seems that increased defence expenditure does not result in additional resources for the front line. However it may choose to characterise itself, the previous government left the armed forces in a reduced state. This must change, and service chiefs should demand the resources they need to achieve the levels of readiness and capability that the international situation requires.
Action this day!
There is no doubt that the men and women of our armed forces stand ready to do their utmost to keep us and our Allies safe and free. To do this they need the best equipment, training and housing; the Reserves need to feel that they are included in this picture. Backing this up, Industry needs to be involved in the decision making about current and future capability alongside the research and development community in our great universities.
The advent of Hybrid, or grey zone warfare has served to complicate the national security picture, as has the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The HCDC is examining the implications of grey zone warfare, but this only serves to reinforce the point that both the international and technological world are now changing more swiftly than has been the case hitherto.
The current economic situation is due, at least in part, to the activities of Vladimir Putin. He does not care about the condition of his own country. Wishful thinking that he may depart the scene is just that. He has increased the level of his defence expenditure to the point that Russia is a war time economy. He continues to look for weakness in the west, whether this is cutting undersea cables or disrupting the internal political processes in neighbouring countries.
Countering this requires leadership, and that includes making difficult decisions. This can be achieved if the public supports the government. The HCDC is in a position to give the government its support, but it also needs to ensure that the UK is a credible ally. In the previous parliament, the HCDC produced a report in February 2024 “Ready for war?” Ready for War? – Defence Committee to which the MOD responded on 8th April 2024 Ready for War?: Government Response to the Committee’s First Report this was a useful exercise and it might be worth the current HCDC revisiting, to ensure that the MOD’s undertakings have been followed through.
In the current situation, the HCDC should arrange for an annual report card / audit of the UK’s readiness for war. It would make interesting reading among the various stakeholders in the defence and security world, as well as our Allies. Not to mention Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
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