The Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which has recorded ongoing wars since 1945, has revealed that there was more annual conflict in 2022 and in 2023 than in any year since the end of the Cold War. The Peace Research Institute Oslo found there were more battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts in 2022 than in any year since 1984. The upswell in organised violence worldwide, however much regretful, casts light on the literally vital role of the defence sector and, by extension, the tools and technologies on which they rely.
More and more, these technologies begin their life in the space sector, which is fast becoming the spine of the global economy. In recent years, the sector has grown rapidly, increasing in market value from $280 billion in 2010 to $447 billion in 2020, according to Space Foundation. Another way to gauge the sector’s growth is to look at the bandwidth of usable data gathered by satellites, which increased by 1,677.78 percent between 2021 and 2023.
No wonder, then, that the U.S. Space Force, established in 2019, is prioritising an increase in both the number of spacecraft in orbit and companies providing launch services this year. In a vision document, Space Force said that the ‘rapid proliferation and tactical application of competitor space capabilities’ was key in 2024. And no wonder that China, which aims to rival the U.S. as the number-one space superpower, is investing so heavily in the sector. Other countries entering the new ‘space race’ include the United Arab Emirates, India and Japan. Europe, too, is jockeying for position in the market, with ESA chief Josef Aschbacher calling for deeper regional integration to counter the continent’s rivals.
2024 will be yet another big year for space technology with military applications. Space tech in general, and satellites in particular, already enable the interconnected, real-time data network that allows all the distinct elements involved in a modern military, from soldiers and sensors to vehicles and weapons, to operate together in a coherent and synchronised way, maximising effectiveness. Smaller companies with one foot in the commercial sector and one in defence have been driving advances in the development of many different technologies, competing for lucrative contracts put out to tender by the Department of Defense in the United States.
Earth observation
One of these is earth observation. We’ll see strides forward in this area, where space tech firms are providing satellite synthetic aperture radar data, near real-time situational awareness, and mapping. This kind of technology was developed chiefly for environment monitoring, but is now used by defence organisations to increase situational awareness in relation to national security, border control and maritime monitoring. Companies in this space will provide ever-more accurate analyses of natural catastrophes, such as flooding and wildfires, to government agencies and insurance businesses. This technology can be used for any location on Earth, day and night, and in any weather. The crossover points between earth observation and defence and use in the armed forces are plain to see, and that has a mutually beneficial effect on driving innovation. This is also a high-growth market, worth more than €4 billion.
Navigation
In navigation, space technology companies are going to make advances in providing target acquisition and tracking, so-called blue force tracking (BFT) – providing location information about friendly military forces – and logistical support. They will innovate further in the realm of precision-guided munition, which is many times more accurate than its unguided counterpart, and autonomous platforms, such as drones, which are now ubiquitous in modern conflict.
Communication
Advances in space technology have been to thank for advanced reconnaissance technology, and secure data exchange via laser communication, led by companies who have developed ‘light-shaping’ techniques to preserve the quality of earth-to-space laser links despite atmospheric turbulence. Laser will be a key area in 2024. Laser communication is almost undetectable, impossible to intercept and unjammable, allowing a vast quantity of data to be transferred securely. (Radio, by contrast, must sacrifice data quantity to enhance security.) Space-enabled communication is the most important factor in interoperability – the power of military forces to act together coherently – and the effective direction of military forces towards a certain goal, generally known as command and control. In the race to ‘own’ this area of space communications, we have seen the Chinese take big steps forward. The US continues to be the principal driver of innovation, however, thanks to its commercial partnerships. In 2024, in a climate of intensifying geopolitical volatility, we’ll see an acceleration in innovation.
In a similar way, space technology has been enabling connectivity between weapon stations, as well as the efficacy of sensor networks, including sensor-decider-effector networks and embedded systems, which greatly increase the speed and quality of decision-making on the battlefield. Digitalised battlefield platforms and platform-to-soldier system integrations have been made possible with technology developed or improved in the space sector.
Edge computing
Satellites equipped with high-resolution imaging and sensors can capture vast amounts of data over wide areas. Historically, this data would need to be sent back to Earth to be processed, which could take time. But with edge computing capabilities, satellites could process the data in orbit, quickly identifying potential threats from space. This would allow military forces on the ground or at sea to take action quickly, or otherwise dispatch autonomous systems to investigate.
Beyond defence
Developments in space technology and satellites will have an impact beyond defence. Competition in the sector is growing, with companies like ETL/OneWeb, SES, Telesat, Rivada and Mangata all showing potential. ETL/OneWeb, for instance, will dispatch more than 600 satellites into orbit, while Telesat’s Lightspeed constellation, made up of 298 satellites, aims to provide global internet coverage, especially to remote areas.
Much has been said about Starlink, the satellite internet constellation operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. It now has roughly 5,000 satellites in orbit and provides coverage to more than 70 countries. But there are some concerns around it – concerns not often covered in the mainstream conversation. One pertains to its long-term sustainability, given the number of large-scale launches required to get its satellites into space.
The need for investment
For the space sector to continue growing, and for satellites to reach their full potential as enablers of military prowess, climate intelligence, greater connectivity and more, investment in space tech is crucial. Those countries that have prioritised the space sector have made extraordinary strides forward. The UAE is a good example. A relative newcomer to space, the country has achieved incredible results so far, not just in Earth or lunar orbit, but further afield as well. In 2019, it put its first astronaut in space. In 2023, it launched its first scientific mission to the International Space Station (ISS). It has broadened both its space science programs and technological capabilities, and its Martian Hope orbiter sent back data and images from Mars. That is a small sign of how investment supercharges progress.
It is, in the end, investment that empowers the entrepreneurs directly and indirectly developing all space tech, and in particular military machinery, equipment and techniques, to innovate freely and scale their enterprises to meet market demands, improve efficiency, and increase their profit margins, which support their companies’ growth and further innovations. It’s no exaggeration to say that the differentiating factor between first-class armed forces and their second- and third-class counterparts today relates directly to the quality and sophistication of the space technology at their disposal. And that will come down to who gives those developing that tech the financial support they need.