All credit to Defence Procurement Minister Jeremy Quin for openness, honesty and integrity displayed within the Ministerial Statement to the House of Commons in respect of the botched Ajax Military Fighting Vehicle procurement. Rarely do we see such a display of openness and while it may be argued that we are little further forward in knowing the final outcome of this very trouble Army programme, the current situation appears to be that while it remains on life support a final decision on whether to continue or scrap it and go back to the drawing board will not be taken until next year.
What one can say for certain is that the cause and extent of the vibration and noise issues that have dogged the Ajax programme and caused potentially damaging impact on health of servicemen and women who have been engaged in the process of testing has not yet been fully identified. That does appear somewhat surprising.
The culture of failure referred to by MinDP appears to have been endemic and “lays bare a deep malaise which is cultural and results in systematic failure across our organisations”. Never before have I read such damning remarks made by a Minister of State in regard of his own department failings.
Neither are we any clearer in respect of who is to blame albeit that neither the Army, Ministry of Defence, DE&S Defence Digital or General Dynamics comes out of this well. One might even argue that General Dynamics comes out of this a little less battered than one might perhaps have expected and that one detects that despite all that has gone before, MOD is still attempting to keep General Dynamics on board.
Perhaps the most important element of the report to me was confirmation from MinDP that in order to take things forward the MOD is commissioning a senior legal figure to look more deeply at Ajax and not just health and safety but also to examine the cultural and process flaws that have been highlighted. MinDP said in the statement to the House that “We will leave no stone unturned to learn these lessons and if the review uncovers evidence of gross misconduct, those concerned will be held to account – but the primary purpose though is to ensure that we address significant cultural failings”.
The terms of reference of this separate inquiry will be agreed with the appointed legal reviewer and we may hope that this also includes all those who have been engaged in the programme in any way, particularly for example, former members of the military who may subsequently or through the Ajax procurement process have been employed by General Dynamics.
Unfortunately. we are no clearer following the statement in knowing who should carry blame but as long as Jeremy Quin remains Minister of State at the MOD and Defence Procurement Minister I have a feeling that we will. The points he made about the robustness of contract signed between the MOD and General Dynamics are noted but that is not confirmation that it will be General Dynamics that pays to put faults right. Nor was any mention made of other reported, although unconfirmed as far as I am aware, issues such as the ability to fire a second round whilst on the move.
For all that, it has to be said that there is an air of optimism and that inside the MOD there appears ample faith that the various issues that have impacted on the Ajax programme can be addressed.
Even so, with what has been clearly exposed in the MinDP statement today, the ongoing safety related inquiries that presumably will continue to be led by David King, who is MOD Director of HSEP, DSA (Health and Safety) together with the other separate and connected investigation in regard of headsets and which MinDP has asked MOD Permanent Secretary David Williams to put into effect together with the separate legal based inquiry means that a lot more water will need to pass under the bridge before we can know the final outcome, cost, blame, who pays and indeed, when and if Ajax will ever enter service with the Army. To suggest that a decision will occur early next year is in my view, fanciful to say the least.
One thing is certainly clear – while even if maybe only on the periphery, there are many that have been involved in this embarrassing and costly programme since it was first announced in SDSR 2010 and subsequently confirmed in respect of contractual arrangement with General Dynamics in 2014 that should hold their heads in shame.
As I have said, we are no clearer knowing when or even if a reconfigured Ajax capability might finally enter service with the Army and I tend to agree with those that suggest even if it does it may be as long as 2032 before the Army gets what it supposedly needs. If that is anywhere near right, it suggests to me that the MOD should immediately reverse the decision to scrap Warrior and move forward with the originally planned upgrade.
CHW (London 15th December 2021)