0900 hrs (GMT), 28 February 2026 EVENT. Sibylline reported to day that at approximately 0800hrs (local time) on 28 February, Israel and the US launched a joint airstrike campaign targeting Iran. Strikes are ongoing at the time of writing, with explosions reported in major cities, including the capital Tehran. Airstrikes have primarily targeted locations associated with Iran’s government, intelligence services and security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US President Donald Trump subsequently announced that the US has begun ‘major combat operations in Iran’ and called for the Iranian people to ‘take over’ the government once strikes have concluded.
SIGNIFICANCE • The strikes come after weeks of rising tensions between the US and Iran, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatening to engage in military action in response to stalled progress in nuclear negotiations. The US has also surged military assets to the region, including two naval carrier strike groups (see Sibylline Middle East Crisis Update – 18 February 2026).
• The US previously engaged in airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities during the Israel-Iran war in June. Iran retaliated to these strikes with a limited missile attack targeting the US’s Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) on 23 June (see Sibylline Middle East Crisis Update – 23 June 2025).
• As part of preparations for Iran’s response, Israel has closed its airspace, and the Home Front Command (HCF) increased the national readiness level from Full Activity to Necessary Activity. Iraq and Iran have also closed their respective airspaces. FORECAST Iran will almost certainly retaliate to Israeli airstrikes with repeated missile and drone attacks targeting Israel in the coming days, disrupting operational continuity for locally engaged entities. Although strikes will likely nominally target Israeli military facilities, as many key military facilities are located within major cities such as Beersheba (Southern district), Haifa (Haifa district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), missile and drone attacks are likely to directly impact civilian installations and infrastructure.
Although Israeli and US air defences are almost certainly capable of intercepting the majority of Iranian munitions, successful penetration and shrapnel from interception will drive security and collateral risks for locally engaged assets and personnel. Iranian hostilities targeting Israel will also significantly increase the risks of further Israeli operations targeting security force facilities within Iran, increasing risks of conflict extension and associated regional fallout in the coming weeks. In the coming days, Iran is also highly likely to respond to US strikes by targeting US military installations in the region, increasing regional tensions and escalation risks. In the coming hours, Iranian authorities will likely continue working to determine the impact of US strike action on targeted locations. The intensity of Iran’s response to strike action will likely depend on the extent of damage to targeted facilities and potential casualties among senior military or regime leadership. Given initial reports indicating that the airstrike campaign has been extensive, Iran is highly likely to mobilise efforts to conduct a missile and drone attack targeting US military installations in the region in the coming days (see Sibylline Sibylline Ltd 2026 In Confidence
Situation Update Brief – 26 February 2026). Strike action will possibly target installations such as the Al Udeid Air Base (XJD, Al Rayyan municipality, Qatar), Harir Air Base (Erbil governorate, Iraq) and Naval Support Activity Bahrain (Capital governorate, Bahrain). Iran will also possibly engage in broader retaliation targeting US naval assets in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman and the Mediterranean Sea, as well as the targeting of assets in Jordan, Kuwait and the UAE. Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US military installations will increase risks of exposure to blasts and shrapnel for assets and personnel in close proximity to targeted locations. Initial reports indicate that Iran has fired at least one missile at Bahrain’s capital Manama (likely targeting Naval Support Activity Bahrain), while local media reports indicate that an explosion has occurred in the UAE’s capital Abu Dhabi. Further attacks remain possible in the coming hours, though broader airstrikes targeting civilian and government facilities in Gulf countries hosting US forces are currently unlikely. Regardless, the interception of Iranian munitions at high altitudes will also increase risks of shrapnel-related collateral damage across the region, including rural areas in Jordan, Iraq, Israel, Syria and Saudi Arabia. US and Iranian hostilities will almost certainly trigger further airspace closures in the coming hours, significantly disrupting regional travel continuity. At the time of writing, Iraq, Iran and Israel have shut their respective airspace.
Further temporary closures are highly likely across the broader region in the coming hours, significantly disrupting commercial flight activity. This will likely impede air travel from the region at this time, increasing competition for limited flights and resulting in substantial overcrowding at airports. Regional flights will likely face substantial delays and broad cancellations, with knock-on effects for intercontinental travel via Dubai International Airport (DXB, UAE) and Hamad International Airport (DOH, Qatar). The rerouting of flight paths will also increase journey times and increase risks of supply chain disruption for entities reliant on air freight. The strikes are highly likely to increase pressure on regime stability in Iran, increasing prospects for asymmetric Iranian hostiles and efforts to restrict the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump’s explicit call for a popular uprising in Iran is highly likely to compound the Iranian government’s concerns regarding government stability and threats to regime survival (see Sibylline Special Report – 19 January 2026). This will likely result in Iran pursuing a variety of asymmetric attacks targeting US and Israeli assets and interests in the region to deter sustained military action. This campaign will possibly include cyberattacks, information campaigns and attempts to disrupt navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran is unlikely to unilaterally close the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, Iranian parliamentarians will possibly threaten to restrict the navigability of the waterway, compounding market concerns over supply chain continuity. As the Strait of Hormuz is critical for the export of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, threats to restrict the waterway’s navigability will likely trigger price shocks across international energy markets, temporarily increasing operational costs worldwide. Amid increasing concerns that Iran will restrict passage through the Strait, oil exporters will likely attempt to expedite shipments from the Gulf to receiving markets, increasing risks of bottlenecks and vessel collisions in the coming days.
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