Ukraine Conflict Update

Ukraine Conflict Update – March 31

Amongst the most notable military developments in the last 24 hours are reports of Ukrainian forces successfully retaking various towns, including Malaya Rohan on the south-eastern outskirts of Khakrkiv, as well as five towns in Zaporizhzhia oblast in the south and in the Sumy oblasts. Nevertheless, Russia continues to concentrate effort and units in the Donbas further south, with Russian forces taking the village of Terny, northwest of Severodonetsk. President Volodymyr Zelensky has underlined expectations of an intensification of attacks in that region as Russian forces north of Kyiv are expected to redeploy to support operations in the east, even as Ukrainian forces make limited gains around Kharkiv and Sumy where elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have pulled back.
Long-range strikes have also continued far from the frontline, with Russian missiles striking fuel depots in Dnipro and Fastiv overnight, as well as an industrial plant in the nearby town of Novomoskovsk and food storage warehouse in Kyiv.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has announced a localised ceasefire today in Mariupol to allow civilians to evacuate from the city. According to the Russians, a humanitarian corridor between Mariupol and Zaporizhzhia via Russian-controlled Berdyansk opened from 1000 (local time; 0800 BST), with buses planning to evacuate civilians from the besieged city. Previous attempts to organise humanitarian corridors in and out of the besieged city have failed, and so it remains to be seen whether this one will be successful.
On 31 March President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the annual spring conscription, indicating that the new year’s intake of some 134,500 conscripts will began assignment to their bases from May. However, the decree stated that conscripts whose term of military service has expired will be dismissed, indicating that Moscow does not intend to extend their contracts to mitigate manpower pressures. If this does indeed prove to be the case, it will be a key indicator that Moscow is not intending to significantly expand the military campaign in Ukraine beyond current operations and would reduce the likelihood that a state of emergency, martial law or general mobilisation will be issued in response to the stalling invasion. Nevertheless, official statements can easily be reversed as changing circumstances dictate, and so it cannot be ruled out. There may also be 100,000 reservists called up with some 40,000 reservists in Ukraine remaining. Mercenary’s families in Syria have been offered a $7000 bonus if they are killed.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

On 30 March, Press Secretary of Georgia’s separatist region of South Ossetia, Dina Gassieva, reported that the de facto authorities will complete legal procedures to join Russia after the presidential elections on 10 April. The announcement follows comments by the region’s leader, Anatoly Bibilov, that the republic will host public consultations on joining Russia. These developments come days after South Ossetia sent troops to support Moscow’s military offensive, fuelling calls from some voices within Georgia’s opposition that the government should use the opportunity to reclaim the territories. This remains highly unlikely given the ruling Georgian Dream’s cautious line with Russia since the invasion and the likelihood that such an operation would result in Russian retaliation, including long-range strikes against urban centres. The fact that President Zelensky yesterday, 30 March, recalled the Ukrainian ambassador from Tbilisi over the government’s “failure to defend the state’s interests” illustrates the extent to which Georgian Dream’s line on the invasion has been far from pro-Ukrainian. Nevertheless, the issue threatens to ignite a new constitutional crisis in Georgia after the government earlier this month took the country’s president to court over her pro-Ukrainian stance, with Tbilisi’s response to any potential referendum threatening to destabilise Georgian politics still further.
Bibilov’s intentions to hold a referendum are just the latest example of a growing trend in other pro-Russian separatist regions that make formal Russian annexation of various statelets more likely following the invasion of Ukraine. The government of the People’s Republic of Luhansk in the Donbas has already indicated it may hold a referendum on joining Russia as well. Donetsk is likely to do likewise if and when Russian forces take further territory in that oblast, which the recent shift in strategy to focus on the east is clearly intended to accomplish. While the Donbas republics and South Ossetia are most likely to be formally annexed, other regions are potentially in play. Indications earlier during the invasion of plans to proclaim a People’s Republic of Kherson in southern Ukraine underline the possibility that other occupied regions could also be absorbed. For further analysis and scenarios around what Russian occupation of Ukraine could look like, including the People’s Republic model, see our Situation Update Brief. The Georgian President has been taken to court for being too pro-Ukraine. It is unclear whether these regions will be annexed.
Outside of Ukraine, however, political realities and geography make annexation of the other key breakaway republics, namely Abkhazia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova less likely. While geographically continuous with Russia, Abkhazia has guarded its independence arguably most strongly of all the pro-Russian breakaway regions. Authorities in Sukhumi undoubtedly consider Moscow their primary guarantor, but not necessarily as the mother country, with the local populations identifying more as Abkhaz rather than Georgian or Russian. By contrast, much of the South Ossetian population consider themselves ethnically Russian, with the authorities more closely connected to Russia and desirous of true political union. As such, Abkhazia is less likely to follow suit with a referendum due to the political realities in that region. Similar dynamics are at play in Transnistria at this stage, though an expansion of Russian military operations in Western Ukraine to join up with region would make annexation possible, though still much less likely than in South Ossetia, Donetsk and Luhansk. The oil terminal at Khmelnytski has been closed due to ‘storm damage,’ which has affected Kazaks tan oil exports.
Meanwhile, a poll published by the Levada Centre today revealed that Putin’s approval ratings increased by more than 10% in March, with 83% of the population reportedly supportive of Putin’s actions in March, compared to 71% in February and 69% in January. However, as with most polling data in Russia, these figures may not be an accurate representation of the current public mood, particularly as the economic impact of sanctions is being felt more than ever by the population. Nevertheless, given the lack of appetite for protests and harsh crackdown on anti-war content, the Kremlin has successfully silenced the few critics that had been calling on Russia to stop the war.
Russia’s aim is to take the whole of the Southern region of Ukraine to Transnistria, but it is likely that they may settle for the South east of the country. Their forces in Kharkiv and Suny have taken a punishing with the 1st Guards Tank Army suffering losses with the loss of two Brigades overall. One military commander committed suicide. There is only the Northern road open to allow supplies to the troops round Kyiv. Artlllery is being moved South from Kyiv to the Donbas area.
The Naval Surface Action Group has been in action in the Black Sea and has taken control of 90 vessels entering the area and preventing access to Ukraine’s ports.

Economic/business environment developments

On 30 March President Putin held a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, where Putin reportedly confirmed that European buyers would be able to continue paying for gas imports in euros. However, just prior to publication on 31 March, the Kremlin confirmed that Putin had signed a decree that will uphold requirements that “unfriendly nations” pay for gas imports in rubles, which will apply from 1 April. This appears to be in direct contradiction to the claims of both Scholz and the Italians, who claimed they had been promised the ability to pay in euros. According to them, Moscow had stated that they would allow customers to continue paying in euros, but via Gazprombank, which has avoided the vast majority of international sanctions and will thus allow payments in euros.
Putin had previously set today, 31 March, as a deadline for the government and Central Bank to create a mechanism to allow payment in rubles, and it now appears that such a mechanism will be in place regardless of what was promised during the 30 March call. The G7 had previously unanimously refused calls to pay for imports in rubles, with Germany activating the first phase of an emergency energy plan yesterday amid concerns that Russia could cut off supplies of natural gas. Given the Kremlin’s most recent statement, it appears that an energy standoff is imminent, with the Kremlin confirming that if payment is rubles is not made, contracts would be halted. This raises the prospect of substantial disruptions to gas flows in Europe, which will likely have a precipitous impact on already high gas and energy prices.
India is likely to retain its neutral stance due to key strategic market for Russia supplies of defence equipment and sub-assemblies for such projects as the Brahmos Cruise Missile recently supplied to the Philippines

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

The safest route for departure from Kyiv as of 31 March remains the H01/P01. For routes to western Ukraine, we recommend following the H01/P01 southbound until connecting with the westbound P32. Fighting around the north-west and west of Kyiv remains intense, with missile strikes in Zhytomyr Oblast near the E40, and thus we reiterate past advisories that the westbound E373 and E40 are highly unsafe. While Russian ground troops have been pushed back, the south-west E95 and the P04 remain unsafe as well following missile strikes in the vicinity of Fastiv and air raid warnings in Vinnytsia.
SOCMINT indicates ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian rear echelon units continue to take place on the P02, P69, M07 circular and H01/P01 in Kyiv. These are likely conducted in order to identify potential Russian fifth columnists/saboteurs, and Ukrainian units conducting these checks are believed to be operating on capture/kill orders. As such, those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution. Finally, Russian forces will likely continue their indiscriminate attacks on private vehicles on westbound routes into Kyiv, highlighting the severe risk to life posed by travelling on westbound routes to and from Kyiv at present.
For routes toward western Ukraine, the P32 westbound from Bila Tserkva currently remains the safest major westbound road out of Kyiv. However, shelling in Vinnytsia, Vasylkiv and Fastiv remains an ongoing threat, and air raid warnings across the length of the P32 – notably in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv – highlights the increasing spread of the conflict into western Ukraine, particularly following the strike against a fuel depot in Lviv on 27 March. Therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes at present.

FORECAST

Talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegation are due to resume in Turkey from tomorrow, 1 April. The talks will notably take place against the backdrop of western intelligence reports that doubt Russia’s announcement that it will scale down its military operations around Kyiv. NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg also said that the alliance is not convinced that Moscow was negotiating in good faith at the last round of talks, underling the high likelihood that this is merely an opportunity for Russian forces to regroup ahead of a new offensive. Meanwhile, the UK’s ministry of defence also released intelligence today stating that it anticipated heavy fighting to take place in the outskirts of Kyiv in the coming days.

In a further notable development, the Kremlin today, 31 March, denied US and UK intelligence reports that advisers to President Putin are afraid to provide a realistic assessment of the military situation on the ground, and that Putin as a consequence has been misled as to the scale of issues facing Russian forces. While this is of course impossible to independently verify, President Putin’s potential isolation and the quality of intelligence being provided to him remains a key factor in how the war is likely to progress. Nevertheless, the shift in war aims to focus on the Donbas this week does indicate acceptance of Russian military losses up until this point and points to a reduction of Moscow’s operational objectives as a result.

Finally, President Putin signed a decree today stating that payments for Russian gas must be made in rubles, after both Italy and Germany said that they had received assurances that purchases can still be made in euros. The development will compound the European energy crisis and lead to a spike in prices, with supply cuts from Russia for those who do not comply now almost certain.

The most significant development in the last 24 hours has been the Ukrainian recapture of the town(s) of Malaya Rohan, sitting across the M03 running south-east from Kharkiv to Chuhuiv. This advance south of Kharkiv adds to the earlier capture of Trostyanets, north of the city and south of Sumy, consolidating supply lines for Ukraine in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.
These advances have been enabled in part by the withdrawal of significant Russian forces from the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. As we have previously reported, large elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have been pulled back and are being redeployed further south, mostly around Izyum at this time.
Steady Russian pressure in this area continues to yield slow results, with further reported advances outside of Horlivka (north of Donetsk). To the north and west of Severeodonetsk, where Russia is trying to encircle Ukrainian regular forces, the village of Terny was captured as part of a 6km move forward. Shelling continued to intensify along most of the front lines in Donetsk and Luhansk, and the village of Popasnaya has continued to be a focus for air activity.
Russian forces also reportedly crossed the Shaitanka River on the front line between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, assaulting Velika Novosilka. This forms an important road junction. With continued difficulty with extensive off-road movement, such towns will continue to be significant objectives. A sustained advance here will potentially dislocate Ukrainian defences further east. It is possible that this is an area where additional Russian reserves are being concentrated. The army in the south has moved its command area from Kherson to nearer Melitopol, showing the shift in focus away from Mykolaiv and potentially emphasising the danger of a sustained northern thrust in this area.
Around two brigades of Russian forces nonetheless remain west of the Dnieper, although they continue to lose some ground in skirmishing with Ukrainian forces about 140km north of Kherson and just south of Kryvyi Rih.
Artillery fire continued around Kyiv and Chernihiv, with signs that Russia is continuing to shorten its lines. Ukrainian attacks are now largely being repulsed by artillery, with increasing use of mines. A very large question is whether the 2nd Combined Arms Army tank and mechanised forces east of Kyiv will continue to be supplied with lines running back to the Russian border near Kursk, which are now very vulnerable given Ukrainian offensive action to the south and the loss of pressure on Sumy. Instead, the isolation and gradual reduction of Chernihiv may see these forces stay in place, but shift supply to the Belarusian border to the north. If this is not achieved then it is possible these forces will be withdrawn, but this will free up significant Ukrainian formations for deployment to Donbas, including an armoured brigade – unlikely to be something Moscow would want.
Also in the vicinity of Kyiv, significant numbers of troops from Chernobyl are reportedly receiving treatment for radiation poisoning after digging trenches in contaminated areas of the Red Forest, emphasising the incidental threats of operating in this area. This remains the main supply line for Russian forces west of Kyiv, however, as well as a focus for discussion of radiological threats in Ukraine; it is therefore unlikely to be abandoned.
Overnight targeting of fuel depots has continued, with a significant fire in Kharkiv when a pipeline was fractured. Dnipro was also targeted. New Ukrainian legislation preventing pictures of post-strike damage is being taken very seriously, meaning that it is impossible fully to calculate the effects of these operations, but it remains clear that Moscow has identified fuel supply as a major challenge for Ukraine.
At sea, Russia continues to blockade the Black Sea coast, with reports that 90 vessels have been denied access to Ukrainian ports to load goods – mainly food for export. This is alleged to be artificially increasing world food prices beyond the immediate effects of the crisis. A small amphibious group is now at sea again off Odesa, escorted by the Moskva, Russia’s largest ship in the Black Sea. Further feints and attacks on the city remain possible as Russia attempts to keep reserves bottled up in this area.
More widely, reports have emerged alleging tensions between Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defence. This adds to existing indications of issues with the intelligence services (SVR, FSB, and the military’s Main Directorate – GU, formerly known as GRU). The pattern, which is being revealed and exploited by Western agencies, suggests that Putin was told what advisors believed he wanted to hear, including minimising of losses and setbacks. Given the sourcing, this may not be entirely correct, and could be an attempt to give Putin an exit or minor off-ramp; he can blame his advisors for the failures, under this scenario.
However, we are aware of meetings with Putin pushing his leaders to get results, and also where for example use of Reserves was talked down by senior military figures – due in part to them having to admit that these were not fit for purpose. We therefore consider it unlikely he is not generally aware of the situation, although it is possible that the chances of success in the Donbas are being overstated in Russian reporting and decision-making.
Reports that Finland and to a lesser extent Sweden are now ready to join NATO will be causing further discomfort in Moscow. Reports are now alleging that two Russian SU-24s from Kaliningrad which previously flew into Swedish airspace during joint exercises were in fact carrying nuclear weapons. This is not clear in footage of the incident, and the escorting fighters were not armed, which would be odd in such a situation. However, the incident is reportedly confirmed by the Swedish Armed Forces and this is adding to sentiment in the country around membership. This may provoke more rhetoric from Moscow, although at present this remains more muted than earlier in the conflict. We assess Russia is looking to achieve more battlefield success before again toning up rhetoric and offensive actions.
Similarly, the Russian demand that gas supplies to Europe be paid for in rubles, against the terms of the contracts in place, has been defused due to Gazprom Bank not being sanctioned; it can therefore handle Euro payments. This shows how Russia will continue to pull on levers, but a show of resolve from Germany – including putting crisis contingency plans into operation – appears to have helped stand down the crisis, for now.
United States: Washington’s extension of cyber-related state of emergency suggests threat toward critical sectors will endure. On 30 March, US President Joe Biden extended the US’ state of national emergency due to the increased threat posed by malicious cyber activity to its national security and economy. President Barack Obama first declared the national emergency on 1 April 2015 on the basis of foreign efforts to undermine US democracy and financial stability. The decision follows Washington’s 21 March warning of “evolving intelligence” that Moscow-linked hackers may be planning to launch retaliatory cyber-attacks for Ukraine-related sanctions imposed on Russia (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 22 March 2022). This extension is the latest policy action taken by the US government to mitigate the growing cyber threat since the US Senate approved the “Strengthening American Cybersecurity Act” on 2 March. However, as the Russian conflict with Ukraine persists, the cyber threat posed to US critical infrastructure, particularly towards the energy and financial sectors, is highly likely to remain elevated over the coming months.
NATO: Russian phishing attacks against European governments unlikely to abate while western military support for Ukraine is ongoing. On 30 March, Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) claimed that alleged Moscow-linked hackers launched a credential phishing campaign against NATO and some Eastern European militaries. While Google refrained from disclosing further details about this campaign, including which specific militaries were targeted and its success rate, they did attribute this activity to the cyber threat actor known as Coldriver or Callisto. While little is known about Coldriver, cyber security firm F-Secure Labs claims that they are “interested in intelligence gathering related to foreign and security policy in Europe”. As such, this hacking group is likely seeking to exfiltrate classified information about its targets’ security and foreign policy plans regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite Moscow’s pledge to reduce military operations around Kyiv, further such phishing campaigns are highly likely to be launched to help Moscow plan future attacks and understand the extent of NATO military and logistical support to Ukraine. NATO and Eastern European government agencies and the private sector organisations supporting their operations will constitute the most likely targets for future Russian phishing activity.
.United States: Washington’s extension of cyber-related state of emergency suggests threat toward critical sectors will endure. On 30 March, US President Joe Biden extended the US’ state of national emergency due to the increased threat posed by malicious cyber activity to its national security and economy. President Barack Obama first declared the national emergency on 1 April 2015 on the basis of foreign efforts to undermine US democracy and financial stability. The decision follows Washington’s 21 March warning of “evolving intelligence” that Moscow-linked hackers may be planning to launch retaliatory cyber-attacks for Ukraine-related sanctions imposed on Russia (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 22 March 2022). This extension is the latest policy action taken by the US government to mitigate the growing cyber threat since the US Senate approved the “Strengthening American Cybersecurity Act” on 2 March. However, as the Russian conflict with Ukraine persists, the cyber threat posed to US critical infrastructure, particularly towards the energy and financial sectors, is highly likely to remain elevated over the coming months.
NATO: Russian phishing attacks against European governments unlikely to abate while western military support for Ukraine is ongoing. On 30 March, Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) claimed that alleged Moscow-linked hackers launched a credential phishing campaign against NATO and some Eastern European militaries. While Google refrained from disclosing further details about this campaign, including which specific militaries were targeted and its success rate, they did attribute this activity to the cyber threat actor known as Coldriver or Callisto. While little is known about Coldriver, cyber security firm F-Secure Labs claims that they are “interested in intelligence gathering related to foreign and security policy in Europe”. As such, this hacking group is likely seeking to exfiltrate classified information about its targets’ security and foreign policy plans regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite Moscow’s pledge to reduce military operations around Kyiv, further such phishing campaigns are highly likely to be launched to help Moscow plan future attacks and understand the extent of NATO military and logistical support to Ukraine. NATO and Eastern European government agencies and the private sector organisations supporting their operations will constitute the most likely targets for future Russian phishing activity.
.Georgia-Russia: South Ossetian bid to join Russia elevates tensions and risk of further annexations. On 30 March, the Press Secretary of Georgia’s separatist region of South Ossetia, Dina Gassieva, reported that the separatist authorities would complete legal procedures to join Russia after the presidential elections on 10 April. The announcement follows comments by leader, Anatoly Bibilov, that the republic would hold public consultations on joining Russia. These developments come days after South Ossetia sent troops to Ukraine to support Moscow’s military offensive, possibly fuelling further calls from some of Georgia’s political factions that the government should use the opportunity to reclaim the territories. Nevertheless, this remains highly unlikely to occur. Results from a referendum in the coming weeks are unlikely to receive international recognition amid high levels of contestation. Meanwhile, Abkhazia, another breakaway region of Georgia, is not expected to follow suit at this stage due to political differences and constitutional barriers, though South Ossetia’s move underlines the mounting likelihood of formal annexations of other territories, including in Ukraine.
US: Administration discussing record draw down of federal oil reserves to offset energy insecurity. White House sources have confirmed plans to release up to 180 million barrels of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during Q2 2022, the largest draw down on record from the 660-million-barrel stockpile. It comes ahead of a 1 April meeting of International Energy Agency (IEA) member states to discuss an international response plan to reign in oil prices that surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the domestic front, the move offers President Biden some political cover from worries over rising petrol prices, a liability for the White House ahead of the November midterms that has polled as the most influential metric for undecided voters. The SPR release will calm short-term international market volatility, with the announcement alone prompting a USD 5 drop in global oil prices. But medium-term volatility driven by Russian military action is unlikely to abate, maintaining heightened energy security concerns through mid-2022.
.US-Taiwan-China: Group study to provide Ukraine war lessons as risk of invasion lowers. Taiwan’s Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng stated on 31 March that the Ministry had set up a working group to study the Russia-Ukraine war with the US and other nations. The announcement followed comments by Taiwanese authorities arguing that a Chinese invasion was unlikely in the short-term, as events in Ukraine had made China more cautious, while US officials stated that Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan was “a threat to all democracies”. Lessons learnt will advise Taiwanese policymakers and strategists, for example, about armaments procurement, deterrence, and strategic preparations. Moreover, it will provide opportunities to strengthen diplomatic relations and strategic coordination with the US and possibly with other countries. While diplomatic and military provocations by Beijing are expected, regional tensions are unlikely to deteriorate substantially, with the risk of invasion remaining low in the short-term.
.European Union: Commission officials investigate Gazprom offices as energy insecurity remains high. On 30 March, antitrust officials of the European Commission raided the offices of Gazprom’s German subsidiaries including Gazprom Germania GmbH and Wingas GmbH. The Commission is continuing its investigation into Gazprom and its subsidiaries’ role in pushing up energy prices across the bloc since last year. The raid likely indicates that an official investigation could be launched by EU competition authorities. Also on 30 March, German Chancellor Scholz had a phone call with Russian President Putin during which he refused to comply with the Kremlin’s demands that Germany pays for Russian gas deliveries in roubles. According to reports, President Putin agreed not to alter the conditions of payment for European companies, however, energy insecurity remains very high across the EU that will continue to drive risks to socio-economic health.
European Union: Inflation soars due to economic pressures caused by the Ukraine war. On 31 March, Bloomberg reported that French year-on-year inflation reached 5.1 percent in March, far higher than predicted. Yet, French inflation is still lower than in other parts of Europe: German and Spanish inflation are soaring due to the economic fallout caused by the war in Ukraine. Earlier this week, Spain reported that its inflation had increased from 7.6 percent to 9.8 percent since February, reaching the highest rate since 1985. As inflation is increasing across the bloc, it is likely that the European Central Bank will look to increase interest rates in the coming weeks or months. As energy security risks remain extremely high, it is likely that risks to socio-economic health will continue to increase considerably in the coming months across the European Union.
Georgia-Russia: South Ossetian bid to join Russia elevates tensions and risk of further annexations. On 30 March, the Press Secretary of Georgia’s separatist region of South Ossetia, Dina Gassieva, reported that the separatist authorities would complete legal procedures to join Russia after the presidential elections on 10 April. The announcement follows comments by leader, Anatoly Bibilov, that the republic would hold public consultations on joining Russia. These developments come days after South Ossetia sent troops to Ukraine to support Moscow’s military offensive, possibly fuelling further calls from some of Georgia’s political factions that the government should use the opportunity to reclaim the territories. Nevertheless, this remains highly unlikely to occur. Results from a referendum in the coming weeks are unlikely to receive international recognition amid high levels of contestation. Meanwhile, Abkhazia, another breakaway region of Georgia, is not expected to follow suit at this stage due to political differences and constitutional barriers, though South Ossetia’s move underlines the mounting likelihood of formal annexations of other territories, including in Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)

31 Mar 22. Ukraine to hold ‘military-technical’ talks with Turkey. The US intends to provide the Ukrainian government with $500m in direct budgetary aid. Ukraine is set to hold ‘military-technical’ co-operation talks with Turkey, Reuters reported, quoting Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia. The move comes a day after the Ukrainian delegation held peace talks with Russian officials in the Turkish city of Istanbul. The Ukrainian delegation stayed back in Istanbul to discuss military-technical co-operation with the Turkish Government, the report added. At the meeting with Russia, Ukraine offered that it would declare neutrality in exchange for security guarantees. On the other hand, Russia said that it will scale back military operations near Kyiv and Chernihiv to build mutual trust between the two sides. US President Biden Joe Biden spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia. A White House statement said: “The leaders discussed how the US is working around the clock to fulfil the main security assistance requests by Ukraine, the critical effects those weapons have had on the conflict, and continued efforts by the US with allies and partners to identify additional capabilities to help the Ukrainian military defend its country.” During the call, President Biden also told President Zelenskyy that the US intends to provide the Ukrainian government with $500m in direct budgetary aid. Earlier this month, Biden signed an order to enable the transfer of an additional $800m worth of military equipment to Ukraine. The package included tactical uncrewed aerial systems, grenade launchers, rifles, machine guns, small arms, and ammunition. (Source: army-technology.com)

30 Mar 22. The future of armoured vehicles: Requirements and capabilities. The effectiveness of anti-tank weapons used by Ukraine against Russian tanks raises questions about the future of armoured vehicles. The effectiveness of anti-tank weapons used by Ukraine against Russian tanks revives old questions as well as generates new ones about armoured fighting vehicles and their future. Norbert Neumann explores whether tanks still have a place on the modern battlefield.

Judging the military situation in Ukraine and forming an accurate picture of the characteristics of the war is quite difficult due to the information operations carried out by both sides of the conflict. However, the next-generation light-anti tank weapon (NLAW), the FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles system and the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone using anti-tank missiles, appear to be quite effective against heavily armoured Russian vehicles.

Contributing factors include bad Russian tactics, the failure to establish air superiority and successful and determined Ukrainian ambushes and guerrilla tactics. Notwithstanding these aspects, images and footage – sometimes unverified – showing burning and shattered tanks have reinvigorated the longstanding debate as to whether tanks and heavily armoured vehicles still have a role on the battlefield.

Go modular

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the struggling Turkish Leopard 2A5s in Syria and American M1A1s against ISIS in Iraq showed that heavily armoured vehicles lack mobility and adaptability and thus struggle in urban settings.

A vehicle with a common chassis with several interchangeable units not only makes it deployable in various combat scenarios, but often also reduces manufacturing costs and the logistical tail on the battlefield. Although the Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL) Boxer is not the first modular unit, it is one of the most famous ones. The 8×8 wheeled armoured vehicle can support 16 different configurations with a payload of up to 15 tonnes.

International Institute of Strategic Studies senior fellow for land warfare Ben Barry says: “Taking off a physical module and putting on a new one is very easy in a garage or in an engineering shed during peacetime, but it’s much more difficult in field operations in war.”

Though the Boxer’s configurations can be changed in about an hour with adequate equipment, logistics can still prove difficult. “What do you do with the modules you are not using? How do you carry them around the battlefield, where do you store them? What if the situation changes?” Barry questions.

Rheinmetall seems to have the solution. The Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicle unveiled in the summer of 2016 can support five mission modules. However, instead of storing them in containers waiting for deployment, the Lynx modules can be directly deployed in standard ISO containers as standalone solutions and can play an active role in combat operations.

“There are other ways of looking at modularity,” Barry says. “What we’ve seen over the last 20 years is a lot of modules of armour being added to vehicles. And we’ve also seen modules of electronic equipment, such as air conditioners or jammers for roadside bombs.

“Armoured vehicles to have a modular approach to armour, electronic architecture, electronic equipment, they need an open system architecture so it’s easy to add new equipment.”

Whether and how the war in Ukraine will influence military procurement and doctrines in other countries is difficult to tell, but seeing dozens of $10m tanks destroyed by $150,000 anti-tank weapons will certainly evoke questions about economic sustainability.

However, while mechanised infantry vehicles form an essential part of any military, medium and lightly armoured, wheeled vehicles like the Boxer are even more vulnerable to a wide range of anti-tank weapons, even rudimentary ones like rocket-propelled grenades (RPG). They are also highly susceptible to the cannons with which heavy armoured vehicles are equipped.

There are, however, active protective systems that can increase vehicle survivability immensely. The Rafael-made Trophy, for instance, protects the vehicle by creating a neutralisation bubble around it. The company claims the system rapidly detects, classifies and engages all known chemical energy threats, including recoilless rifles, anti-tank guided missiles, anti-tank rockets, high-explosive anti-tank rounds and RPGs. The German Army selected Trophy for the Leopard 2 main battle tank and the British Army for the new Challenger 3.

The Russian military has been designing active protective systems for tanks, like the Arena-M for its -72 tanks, since the end of 90s. But active protective systems have weak points too. “They can be counted for and jammed,” Barry says. “By virtue, having to have a radar and other components in the system on the outside of a tank, they can be attacked by machine guns, cannon and artillery fire too.”

While the tank is not the answer for everything on its own, particularly in a terrain found in Eastern Ukraine, they are the best suited for destroying other tanks and play an essential role in operations. “The silver bullet is combined arms which is tanks, infantry, including infantry travelling in armoured vehicles, engineers, including armoured engineers, artillery and mortars,” Barry explains.

Another reason why Ukrainians managed to ostensibly destroy so many Russian armoured vehicles is the very poor standards of combined armed forces. Footages of successful Russian tank ambushes like the one at the outskirts of Kyiv, near Brovary, suggest this too.

Barry says: “A US or a British tank battalion would be driving on the roads to Brovary, but when they arrive at the town, they might slow down to walking pace and then deploy their infantry to protect their armour from close attacks. When the column is attacked, they would deploy artillery.”

The Russians, on the other hand, appear to drive all the way and when attacked they do not seem to withdraw under cover of smoke or use any artillery to cover their withdrawal.

But while people debate whether or not tanks are obsolete, “the sheer scale of devastation wreaked upon Mariupol reminds us that indirect fire is still king of the battlefield and why Russian military places such an emphasis on tube, rocket, and missile artillery,” said land warfare specialist defence consultant Nicholas Drummond for the British Times newspaper. (Source: army-technology.com)

30 Mar 22. Russian efforts in Ukraine have not yet spilled over into cyberattacks on US, says lawmaker. Russia’s continued belligerence in Eastern Europe has so far not translated into cyberattacks that damage U.S. public and private sectors, a leading lawmaker said March 29, amid heightened worries of a wartime domino effect in the cyber domain.

“While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not yet spilled over into cyberattacks that affect governments and businesses in the United States, President Biden has warned all Americans of evolving intelligence that Russia may soon launch cyberattacks against the United States,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-NY, said during an oversight hearing.

Members of Congress and experts voiced concerns about Moscow’s cyber reach and long-term intent as its attack on Ukraine was staged and then unfolded.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff in late February told reporters “one pressing concern” was Russian cyber tools bleeding beyond the bounds of Ukraine. “The other possibility,” the California Democrat added, “is that Putin lashes out at the United States and NATO, and in this kind of hybrid warfare, it deploys cyber tools to attack American companies or American infrastructure.”

Schiff had not seen evidence of such Russian efforts at the time. Fresher information, however, suggests “the magnitude of Russia’s cyber capacity is fairly consequential, and it’s coming,” President Joe Biden said March 21. The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has echoed the message.

Biden had previously said the U.S. would respond to Russian aggression in cyberspace. Exactly what that would entail was not clear.

Bryan Vorndran, the assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division, on March 29 told Congress Russia was a “formidable foe.” He also confirmed reports that Russia was increasingly scanning U.S. critical infrastructure, moves that could precede a hack.

“Russia is one of the two most capable cyber adversaries we face globally,” Vorndran said, answering a question from Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, a Texas Democrat. “Whether they have the ability to completely destabilize our country and win a war is a whole different conversation.”

The Russian foreign ministry on Tuesday accused the U.S. of “waging a large-scale cyberattack” against the country, specifically targeting “government agencies, media outlets, critical infrastructure and vital facilities.” The ministry said those responsible — inspirers, operators and culprits — would be held to account.

Vorndran in written testimony described cybersecurity as a national security imperative, a matter he further said is underlined by ongoing international tumult.

The Department of Defense’s fiscal year 2023 budget request, revealed March 28, included $11.2bn for cyber — some $800 million, or nearly 8%, more than the Biden administration’s previous ask.

Pentagon officials emphasized the continued spending in the domain and on related capabilities, like U.S. Cyber Command’s Cyber Mission Force teams.

“The administration’s defense topline includes $276 billion for investment,” Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said. “That includes procurement and research, development, test, and evaluation. Those resources deliver the combat credibility today and into the future that we need across air, sea, land, cyber and space.” (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

31 Mar 22. March was a month dominated by the war in Ukraine, as market participants got to grips with the global macro-economic consequences of Russia’s invasion. Commodity prices were extremely volatile, with oil futures jumping to their highest in 14 years as the West began to announce sanctions on Russia, before tumbling 13 per cent in the following session. Oil trading was marked by thin liquidity as open interest in WTI fell to its lowest in seven years, adding to the volatility. There were also sharp spikes for grains and other soft commodities and metals, though again these have pared a lot of their war premium later in the month. Cotton continues to ride high. Dislocation and lack of liquidity was a definite theme of the month, with nickel trading halted on various occasions and trades even cancelled, controversially, by the LME. The European Federation of Energy Traders called on central banks and governments to provide “emergency liquidity support”. The body warned that many were in a “position where their ability to source additional liquidity is severely reduced or, in some cases, exhausted”, and it stressed that “generally sound and healthy energy companies” might be “unable to access cash”. Equity markets plunged in the wake of the invasion at the end of February but after bottoming around March 7th/8th, there has been a strong rally for stocks, albeit an unpopular one. The sense is that buybacks are the main driver along with retail investors tempted to buy the dip, whilst institutions remain more hesitant against a very challenging macro outlook. Another factor for equities was the rally in the second half of the month in Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks after Beijing announced measures to maintain calm in the markets following a period of steep selling. This came after the Hang Seng fell 6 per cent, its worst day since 2015, after analysts at JPMorgan described it “uninvestable” amid a regulatory crackdown. The following day it rallied 9 per cent, and 7 per cent the day after that. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 as it seeks to combat spiralling inflation that saw US CPI hit 7.9 per cent. The Fed’s new median dot plot calls for 7 hikes this year to 1.9 per cent, with members pencilling in 2.8 per cent further out, which would take the fed funds rate above neutral. The Bank of England also raised rates for a third straight meeting. With the Fed tightening monetary policy, bonds have moved sharply to the downside. The yield on the 10yr Treasury topped 2.5 per cent, whilst the 2yr yield rose to fresh 3-year highs above 2.43 per cent. Yield curves flattened through the month as investors priced in more rate hikes but questioned whether the Fed might start to ease in a year or two. The US 5-year yield briefly rose above that of the 30-year bond for the first time since 2006, a move that many believe could signal a recession, whilst the 2s10s curve also very briefly inverted. In FX, USDJPY bounced a 1.2130 and then retested this area again this morning, where it coincides with the 200-hour SMA. (Source: Investors Chronicle)

30 Mar 22. Russian hackers targeted NATO, eastern European militaries – Google. Russian hackers have recently attempted to penetrate the networks of NATO and the militaries of some eastern European countries, Google’s Threat Analysis Group said in a report published on Wednesday.

The report did not say which militaries had been targeted in what Google described as “credential phishing campaigns” launched by a Russian-based group called Coldriver, or Callisto.

“These campaigns were sent using newly created Gmail accounts to non-Google accounts, so the success rate of these campaigns is unknown,” the report said.

Russia, which is now under heavy Western economic sanctions following its decision to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24, regularly denies accusations of mounting cyber attacks on Western targets.

In 2019, Finnish cybersecurity firm F-Secure Labs described Callisto as an unidentified and advanced threat actor “interested in intelligence gathering related to foreign and security policy” in Europe.

The group also targeted a NATO Centre of Excellence, Wednesday’s Google report said, without elaborating.

In a statement, NATO did not directly address Google’s report but said: “We see malicious cyber activity on a daily basis.”

“NATO Centres of Excellence work alongside the Alliance but they are not part of NATO as such. We are in touch with them on this issue,” the statement said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

31 Mar 22. Russian soldiers in Ukraine sabotaged own equipment, U.K. spy chief says. Russian soldiers short on morale and weapons have refused orders, sabotaged their own equipment and shot down one of their own aircraft, Britain’s spy chief said Thursday, painting a picture of chaos on Russia’s front lines as the war in Ukraine drags into its second month. The efforts are evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s miscalculation when he decided to invade Ukraine, Jeremy Fleming, head of Britain’s signals intelligence agency, said in a speech Thursday at Australian National University. U.S. and British officials have said Putin, more isolated than ever, was misinformed by his aides, further stoking tensions.

“It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people,” Fleming said. “He underestimated the strength of the coalition his actions would galvanize. He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He overestimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory.”

Putin’s “strategic miscalculation” has cost innocent Ukrainian lives — and now is being felt by “ordinary Russians, too,” Fleming said.

Putin has attempted to stop news of the setbacks from reaching Russians, but Fleming said his efforts have failed to quell the growing global support for Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has operated an “extremely effective” information campaign.

In the months leading up to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, U.S. and European officials repeatedly cited intelligence reports to warn of Putin’s plans to launch an assault against Kyiv.

The West’s success in anticipating Russia’s strategy so far has buoyed the credibility of its intelligence, said Australian National University’s John Blaxland, who specializes in international security and intelligence. He added that he finds the “startling” details in Fleming’s speech “reliable.”

“I am actually reasonably confident that we can place trust in what he said, because in due course, we will be able to corroborate it,” Blaxland said.

But other observers have cautioned against dismissing the strength of the Russian military, warning that the Kremlin has shown little sign of backing down from its war efforts. “We are now running into the risky business of simply underestimating the quality and capacity of the Russian force,” said Alexey Muraviev, a national security expert at Australia’s Curtin University.

Although Muraviev said he does not question the veracity of the British spy chief’s claims, he argued that it is critical to distinguish between Russia’s own service members and the Russian-backed separatist troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. The latter, who are Ukrainians recruited to fight on Russia’s side, are more likely to suffer from the kind of breakdown outlined in Fleming’s speech, Muraviev added.

Russia could have lost as many as 15,000 troops in Ukraine war, NATO official estimates

Despite the heavy losses Russia has incurred in the past five weeks, Western officials and observers say Putin shows little sign of abandoning his war efforts, possibly influenced by advisers misleading him about how badly the Russian military is performing and how his country’s economy is being crippled by sanctions, according to the White House. For instance, Russian soldiers have surprisingly relied on unsecured communication devices on the battlefield, which has proved to be a costly mistake.

But chief among Putin’s miscalculations, Muraviev said, was his failure to gather accurate intelligence that portrays the “psychology” of the Ukrainian public, which has greatly turned against Moscow since the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

“It almost seems like Putin indoctrinated himself … and his inner circle,” Muraviev added. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Washington Post)

31 Mar 22. Ukraine expects Russian assault in east after invaders pushed back near Kyiv.

Summary

Ukraine prepares for fresh Russian attacks
Russian troops pull back from capital Kyiv
Economic impact of war felt, gas supplies in focus

Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the southeast region where Moscow’s guns are now trained after its assault on the capital Kyiv was repelled, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.

Five weeks into an invasion that has blasted cities into wastelands and created more than 4 million refugees, U.S. and European officials said Russian president Vladimir Putin was misled by his generals about the dire performance of Russia’s military. read more

Tough resistance by Ukrainian forces has prevented Russia from capturing any major city, including the capital Kyiv, which it assaulted with armoured columns from the northwest and east.

Moscow says it is now focusing on “liberating” the Donbas region – two southeastern provinces partly controlled by separatists Russia has backed since 2014.

In an early morning video address, Zelenskiy said Russian troop movements away from Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv were not a withdrawal but rather “the consequence of our defenders’ work”.

Ukraine was seeing “a build-up of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas and we are preparing for that,” he said.

That includes Mariupol, once a city of 400,000 people, where most buildings have been damaged or destroyed in four weeks of constant Russian bombardment and siege. A convoy of Ukrainian buses set out for the port city on Thursday to try to reach trapped civilians, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.

The United Nations believes thousands of people have died there, many buried in unmarked graves.

The past week has seen a Ukrainian counter-offensive, recapturing destroyed suburbs of Kyiv and strategic towns and villages in the northeast and southwest. Russia declared on Monday that it was scaling back its offensive near the capital and the city of Chernihiv in the north, in what it called a trust-building gesture for peace talks.

PUTIN MISLED, U.S. SAYS

Russia says it launched a “special military operation” to disarm and “denazify” its neighbour, and that the mission is going to plan.

Western countries say the invasion was an unprovoked war of aggression, that Russia’s true aim was to swiftly topple the government in Kyiv, and that its failure has been a strategic catastrophe, bringing economic ruin and diplomatic isolation.

U.S. officials have declassified intelligence which they said showed a rift between Putin and his advisors, who failed to warn him of the poor performance of his military or the economic impact of Western sanctions.

“We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military, which has resulted in persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership,” Kate Bedingfield, White House communications director, told reporters during a press briefing on Wednesday.

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth.”

A senior European diplomat said the U.S. assessment was in line with European thinking. “Putin thought things were going better than they were. That’s the problem with surrounding yourself with ‘yes men.'” the diplomat said.

Military analysts have described Russia’s announcement of a focus on the Donbas as an attempt to reframe its war goals to make it easier for Putin to claim a face-saving victory. Denis Pushilin, the Russian-backed separatist leader in the Donbas province that includes Mariupol, said on Wednesday offensive operations were intensifying.

All previous efforts to reach Ukrainian-held parts of Mariupol with aid or buses to evacuate civilians have failed. On Thursday, however, Ukraine said it was now sending a relief convoy through a humanitarian corridor with the backing of the Red Cross, which had secured agreement with the Russians.

In Russian-held parts of Mariupol people occasionally climb out of cellars to appear, ghostlike, among the ruins.

Pavel was placing a bowl and spoon as a tribute on a makeshift grave, in a patch of grass outside a wrecked apartment block, marked with a plain wooden cross.

“Our friend. March 16. Driving in a car. A bullet hit him in the throat. He was dead in five minutes,” he said. “I was in the car. I brought him home.”

Three older women sat bundled in coats at a picnic table outside the basement where they shelter. One was slicing a cabbage on some old newspaper.

“There’s no food, no water, no gas,” said Viktor, hovering over a makeshift wood stove on the basement steps nearby. “We cook what we find among neighbours. A bit of cabbage, a bit more of potatoes, we’ve found tomato paste, some beetroot.”

Western sanctions imposed on Russia as punishment for its invasion have largely isolated its economy from world trade, but Moscow is still the biggest supplier of oil and gas to Europe.

The United States is considering releasing up to 180 million barrels of oil over several months from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease upward pressure on prices, two U.S. sources said. Oil prices fell more than $5 a barrel on Thursday on the news.

International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries were set to hold an emergency meeting on Friday at 1200 GMT to decide on a collective oil release, a spokesperson for New Zealand’s energy minister said on Thursday.

Russia has demanded European payments for its gas be made in roubles by Friday, raising fears of energy shortages. Germany has warned of a possible emergency if Russia cuts supplies. read more

A German government spokesperson said Putin had told Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday that payments could still be made in euros to Gazprombank, a bank affiliated with the Russian gas export monopoly, which would convert the money to roubles.

However, the Russian business newspaper Kommersant said Gazprom was looking into shutting off supplies: “Gazprom … is indeed working on an option of a complete stoppage of gas supplies to ‘unfriendly countries’ and is evaluating the consequences of such measures,” it wrote.

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

30 Mar 22. Vladimir Putin turns on his military advisers as Ukraine invasion falters. Russian president feels ‘misled’ by spy chiefs and generals over failings of the war, with several reportedly sacked or arrested. Vladimir Putin set out to capture Kyiv and topple its government at lightning speed when he launched his invasion of Ukraine under the guise of a “special operation”.

But five weeks into the war, there is mounting evidence that the Russian president is turning on his own spy chiefs and military advisers as his invasion falters.

According to declassified US intelligence reports, Putin feels he has been “misled” by military leaders who have failed to inform him how poorly his campaign in Ukraine is going.

A US official said on Wednesday that Putin “didn’t even know his military was using and losing conscripts”, which was “showing a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information”.

In a move that underlined the Kremlin’s deep disappointment in its intelligence agencies, Col Gen Sergei Beseda, head of the foreign intelligence branch of the FSB, was reportedly sacked and arrested during the second week of the war.

Col Gen Sergei Beseda has reportedly been placed under house arrest

He and his deputy were detained in early March and placed under house arrest on suspicion of corruption and providing false information about Ukraine, according to reports. The FSB has not confirmed the arrests.

Mr Beseda was reportedly in charge of intelligence operations in Ukraine. Reports of his dismissal match a widely held assessment that the intelligence agencies have been feeding the Russian leader information that overestimated Moscow’s clout in Ukraine.

A few days later, Russian media reported the dismissal of Gen Roman Gavrilov, deputy head of the National Guard, who used to serve in Putin’s security detail.

Guard, has reportedly been dismissed by Vladimir Putin

Russian officials never confirmed the reports. However, Christo Grozev, of the Bellingcat open-source intelligence team, quoted sources saying that Gen Gavrilov was arrested either for the “wasteful squandering of fuel” or for leaking military intelligence that “led to loss of life”.

The National Guard, which typically deals with opposition rallies at home, has been fighting in Ukraine and has also reportedly sustained serious losses.

Mr Gavrilov’s boss, Viktor Zolotov, has kept a low profile after he became the first senior official to admit in the second week of the war that the invasion was taking longer than expected.

Oleksiy Danilov, chairman of Russia’s National Security Council, earlier this month quoted intelligence sources saying that Putin had sacked at least eight generals over losses in the invasion. However, those reports cannot be verified.

Cracks between Putin – a career intelligence agent – and his spy chiefs were laid bare two days before the start of the war, when he publicly dressed down Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR foreign intelligence agency, in a televised discussion about recognising the independence of two separatists statelets in eastern Ukraine.

The chief of the much-feared intelligence agency stuttered and stumbled as Putin repeatedly interrupted him, grilling him about his stance on the separatists’ independence.

Putin’s own remarks in the first week of the war suggested that he expected Ukrainians to surrender within days, while the Russian army would rout Ukrainian forces and reach Kyiv by the end of the week.

Cracks in the façade of the Russian military started to appear shortly after the invasion, with photographs and videos of Russian conscripts captured by the Ukrainian army flooding social media.

Many of them openly questioned the rationale of the war and said they had not been told where they were going when they crossed the border into Ukraine.

Ukraine even opened a hotline for the families of the captured Russians to bring them back home, as Russia would not acknowledge their existence.

Yet in Putin’s Women’s Day address earlier this month, he insisted that Russian mothers could be sure that conscripts would not be involved in the military operation in Ukraine.

A day later, a Russian defence ministry spokesman went on television to say that it had “uncovered several instances” of conscripts ending up in Ukraine.

More evidence emerged this week showing that Russia’s military might be running out of resources and apparently resorting to poorly trained conscripts from separatist stalets in eastern Ukraine.

A group of young men who were forcibly mobilised by pro-Kremlin, self-proclaimed authorities in the Donbas posted a video on social media on Monday, complaining that they were being sent to fight in Ukraine as cannon fodder.

The men, sitting in the back of a truck, showed their oversized helmets and automatic rifles dating back to the 1940s.

“What are we doing here?” a man in the video said. “So many of us have died. The Russian defence ministry has no idea about us or what we’re doing here.”

CNN last week quoted several unnamed defence officials who said the United States could not determine if Russia has designated a military commander to oversee the invasion of Ukraine. The defence officials also backed previous reports that units from different military districts appeared to be competing for resources, rather than fighting as a joint force and coordinating their efforts. Russia has sustained heavy casualties in Ukraine. The Russian defence ministry confirmed about 1,500 deaths, but Ukraine claims Russian losses are at least 10 times as high. While the extent of Russia’s mounting casualties is still hard to assess, local media in Russia have already confirmed the death of seven Russian generals in Ukraine – a staggering figure for one month of hostilities. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

30 Mar 22. Will Slovakia send Ukraine S-300 air defenses? The Pentagon is working on it. A top Pentagon official told lawmakers Wednesday the Biden administration is working to accommodate NATO ally Slovakia’s offer to send more S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine, following Russia’s invasion. Slovakia has agreed to provide Ukraine with the Soviet-era system to help defend against Russian airstrikes, and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander said at a House Armed Services Committee hearing the U.S. is working out Slovakia’s request for some kind of backfill. But two weeks after Slovakia’s defense minister, Jaroslav Nad, made an impromptu offer to send the S-300 if Western allies provide a “proper replacement,” Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., asked why the deal is not done. Wallander said the effort’s “ongoing,” with coordination afoot with a range of countries, and she asked to provide a fuller answer in the classified session to follow.

“We are working with Slovakia to identify the requirements for meeting their needs,” she said. “We are working on this, and meanwhile we have focused on getting countries that hold Soviet legacy systems, including S-300 systems ― that have spare parts, missiles, different parts of that S-300 ― who are willing to send that to Ukraine.”

The comments came weeks after Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy, with his nation under attack by Russian aircraft and missiles, asked the U.S. Congress to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine or alternatively to supply S-300 and other air defense systems and warplanes.

Germany, whose defense minister visited U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon Wednesday, has committed to sending Patriot air-defense capabilities to Slovakia, which borders Ukraine in the east. Nad has said the Patriot, part of a new NATO battlegroup, would complement the S-300 and not replace it.

In a separate exchange, Wallander affirmed 100 Switchblade drones are part of a U.S. package being delivered to Ukraine. It’s been previously reported the drones, made by AeroVironment, are part of a $800 million aid tranche in the process of being sent this month, with a range of anti-armor weapons, firearms, body armor and ammunition. (Ukrainian forces already use Turkish Bayraktar TB2 armed drones.)

Asked if 100 of the Switchblades would be enough to destroy the Russian invading force’s logistics convoys, or if more would be needed, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe, Gen. Tod Wolters, said, “‘I’m convinced that when we get them first set of Switchblades, there’ll be an immediate request from the Ukrainians for more.”

At a separate event on Wednesday, HASC’s chairman, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., said he favors arming Ukraine with more drones as quickly as possible in order to take out the Russian artillery raining destruction on Ukrainian cities. He credited Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply convoys for thwarting Russia’s efforts to take Kyiv.

“Drones have the ability to get out there and not be seen. They’re survivable, they won’t get shot down and they can deliver a punch. So those are the systems that we have to get to them,” Smith said.

At the hearing, lawmakers asked about sending coastal defense cruise missiles to Ukraine or executing Poland’s offer to send its Soviet-era MiG-29s, as well as the U.S. defense industrial base boosting production of the Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-tank missiles the U.S. and allies are sending to Ukraine from their own stocks.

Wallander said the Pentagon’s acquisition and sustainment office is studying industrial capacity as well as what new authorities and funding the Pentagon might need. Separately, she said her office leads the response to Ukraine’s requests for military aid, in cooperation with the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Joint Staff and diplomatic community.

Washington recently approved a $13.6 billion package to address the Russia-Ukraine crisis, much of it to cover the costs of sending troops and weapons to Eastern Europe. The Biden administration has sent Ukraine a total of $2 billion in security assistance, including direct transfers of U.S. equipment.

A bipartisan group of senators on Tuesday requested specifics from the Biden administration on the defense aid the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. The letter, led by Sens. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., asked White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan for a list of lethal and nonlethal aid provided to date and the status of deliveries.

Russia has warned against any shipments of advanced air defenses to Ukraine and threatened it may target Western arms supplies.

Smith asked Wolters if the U.S. needs to balance the risk of Russia spreading the war outside of Ukraine in response to stepped up aid from the U.S. and its western allies. “My first answer is: constantly,” Wolters said. “The conditions change second by second, day by day, week by week.” (Source: Defense News)

30 Mar 22. The Two Sides of Deterrence in Ukraine.

By Benjamin Jensen.

This quick take is part of our Crisis Crossroads series, which highlights timely analysis by CSIS scholars on the evolving situation in Ukraine and its security, economic, energy, and humanitarian effects.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been hailed as both a triumph and failure for deterrence. Can both be true? Strangely, yes. This fact necessitates a need to revisit the foundational strategic concept in the drafting of the new National Defense Strategy, which is said to include nested revisions of both the Missile Defense Review and Nuclear Posture Review. Integrated deterrence will need to mean more than technological change and partners to provide a framework for competitive strategy in the twenty-first century.

Deterrence traditionally involves two dimensions based on threat proximity (direct vs. extended) and the temporal characteristics (immediate crisis response vs. general, long-term competition). At one level, Ukraine is a direct, immediate deterrence failure. Kyiv didn’t sufficiently deny benefits, impose costs, and/or encourage adversary restraint sufficient to stop Russia from invading. At the same time, the invasion was an extended, general deterrent failure for NATO and EU states who sought ways and means to dissuade Russia from using force to settle territorial disputes.

Yet, Ukraine is a deterrent success in terms of thresholds and confining the war to Ukraine as well as limiting the use of weapons of mass destruction. When great powers compete, to include fighting tragic proxy wars through states ranging from the ancient Greek city-state of Corcyra and the start of the Peloponnesian War to modern Ukraine, they must manage escalation risks. Wars can always assume a more destructive, absolute form. As awful as scenes from Mariupol are, the tragedy would compound—along with refugees flows and risks of a world war—if there were a mushroom cloud. When nuclear states compete, the rungs of the escalation ladder quickly bring states to a point of no return beyond which nuclear weapons lose their deterrent value and become a means of inflicting pain to force capitulation.

The war in Ukraine demonstrates the need for the concept of integrated deterrence to move beyond platitudes about technology and partners. The Biden administration will need to articulate how the concept works to manage escalation thresholds as well as how it provides options that counter the Russian approach to coercion and emerging Chinese concept of war control. Ukraine is the beginning, not the end of a new era of competition. Reframing deterrence and competition to guide competitive strategy is thus the central task for the new National Defense Strategy. (Source: CSIS)

31 Mar 22. Eastern Ukraine braces for fresh Russian offensive.

Summary
Ukraine prepares for fresh Russian attacks
Russian troops pull back from capital Kyiv
Russia offers ceasefire in battered port city Mariupol
U.S. considers massive oil release to counter prices
IEA to hold emergency meeting over rising oil prices

LVIV, March 31 (Reuters) – Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the east of the country as Moscow deploys more troops there after suffering setbacks near the capital Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.

Russia’s invasion of its neighbour, now in its fifth week, has driven more than 3.5 million people from their homes, killed thousands, sent global oil prices soaring and brought Russian-Western tensions to their worst point since the Cold War.

The United States is considering a massive release of oil reserves to counter rising oil prices which are fuelling inflationary fears around the world. The International Energy Agency (IAE) will hold an emergency meeting on Friday.

Tough resistance by Ukrainian forces has prevented Russia from capturing any major city, including Kyiv, where a Russian armed column was held back for weeks.

The head of Britain’s GCHQ spy service said new intelligence showed some Russian soldiers had refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft. read more

In an early morning video address, Zelenskiy referred to Russian troop movements away from Kyiv and Chernihiv and said that was not a withdrawal but rather “the consequence of our defenders’ work.”

Zelenskiy added that Ukraine is seeing “a build-up of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas and we are preparing for that.”

Russia says its forces are regrouping to focus on “liberating” the breakaway eastern Donbas region,

The Donbas region encompasses two self-proclaimed “people’s republics” that Russia says it is helping to free from Ukrainian control.

The leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said on Wednesday that offensive operations were intensifying.

Donetsk includes the besieged port city of Mariupol, which has seen some of the war’s heaviest fighting and bombardment and where about 170,000 people are trapped with scarce food and water. read more

“We cook what we find among neighbours. A bit of cabbage, a bit more of potatoes, we’ve found tomato paste, some beetroot,” said former steel worker Viktor from Mariupol. They cook using a rudimentary barbecue and sleep in a basement, which he termed their “peaceful oasis.”

Russian forces have taken half of the strategic port city, an adviser to Zelenskiy said on Wednesday. Russia’s defence ministry said it was prepared to observe a ceasefire in Mariupol on Thursday, Russian news agencies reported.

Kyiv has accused Russia of not fully respecting earlier such commitments. Moscow denies targeting civilians.

PEACE TALKS, GAS PRICES

Russia says it is carrying out a “special operation” to disarm and “denazify” its neighbour. Western countries say Moscow’s invasion, the biggest assault on a European country since World War Two, was entirely unprovoked.

Peace talks will resume online on Friday but neither Ukraine nor Russia expect a quick resolution.

Ukraine has sought a ceasefire without compromising on territory or sovereignty, though it has proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees. Russia opposes Ukraine joining the U.S.-led NATO military alliance, and has cited its potential membership as a reason for the invasion.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia as punishment for its invasion have largely isolated its economy from world trade but Moscow is still the biggest supplier of oil and gas to Europe and the war has seen global oil prices spike.

The United States, the world’s largest crude producer, is considering releasing up to 180 million barrels of oil over several months from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease upward pressure on prices, two U.S. sources said.

Oil prices dived more than $5 a barrel on Thursday on the news.

The move would mark the third time the United States has tapped its strategic reserves in the past six months, and would be the largest release in the near 50-year history of the SPR.

U.S. President Joe Biden will give remarks later on Thursday on efforts to lower gas prices, the White House said.

International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries are set to hold an emergency meeting on Friday at 1200 GMT to decide on a collective oil release, a spokesperson for New Zealand’s energy minister said on Thursday.

“The amount of the potential collective release has not been decided. That meeting will set a total volume, and per country allocations will follow,” the spokesperson for energy minister Megan Woods said.

Seeking to exert its leverage, Russia demanded oil and gas payments be made in roubles by Friday, raising fears of energy shortages and boosting recessionary risks in Europe. Germany has warned of a possible emergency if Russia cuts supplies. read more

Floating a potential compromise, Russian President Vladimir Putin told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that payments could be made in euros and sent to Gazprombank, which would convert the money to roubles, a German government spokesperson said.

Scholz asked for written information to “better understand the procedure,” the spokesperson said.

Gazprombank, one of the main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas, is not subject to EU sanctions. (Source: Reuters)

30 Mar 22. Putin misled by ‘yes men’ in military afraid to tell him the truth, White House and EU officials say. Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by advisers who were too scared to tell him how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Western sanctions have been, White House and European officials said on Wednesday. Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of its southern neighbor has been halted on many fronts by stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces who have recaptured territory even as civilians are trapped in besieged cities.

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth,” she said.

The U.S. was putting forward this information now to show “this has been a strategic error for Russia,” she said.

The Kremlin made no immediate comment about the assertions after the end of the working day in Moscow, and the Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Washington’s decision to share its intelligence more publicly reflects a strategy it has pursued since before the war began. In this case, it could also complicate Putin’s calculations, a second U.S. official said, adding, “It’s potentially useful. Does it sow dissension in the ranks? It could make Putin reconsider whom he can trust.”

One senior European diplomat said the U.S. assessment was in line with European thinking. “Putin thought things were going better than they were. That’s the problem with surrounding yourself with ‘yes men’ or only sitting with them at the end of a very long table,” the diplomat said.

Russian conscripts were told they were taking part in military exercises, but had to sign a document before the invasion that extended their duties, two European diplomats said.

“They were misled, badly trained and then arrived to find old Ukrainian women who looked like their grandmothers yelling at them to go home,” one of the diplomats added.

There were no indications at the moment that the situation could foster a revolt among the Russian military, but the situation was “unpredictable” and Western powers “would hope that unhappy people would speak up,” the senior European diplomat said.

Military analysts say Russia has reframed its war goals in Ukraine in a way that may make it easier for Putin to claim a face-saving victory despite a woeful campaign in which his army has suffered humiliating setbacks. read more

Russian forces bombarded the outskirts of the capital Kyiv and the besieged city of Chernihiv in northern Ukraine on Wednesday, a day after Russia promised to scale down military operations in both cities in what the West dismissed as a ploy to regroup by invaders suffering heavy losses. read more

Russia says it is carrying out a “special operation” to disarm and “denazify” its neighbor. Western countries say Moscow launched an unprovoked invasion. (Source: Reuters)

30 Mar 22. GCHQ spy chief says Russian soldiers refused to carry out orders in Ukraine. The head of Britain’s GCHQ spy service said on Wednesday that new intelligence showed some Russian soldiers in Ukraine had refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft. Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands of people, displaced millions and raised fears of a wider confrontation between Russia and the United States. read more Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) chief Jeremy Fleming said President Vladimir Putin had “massively misjudged” the capabilities of Russia’s once mighty armed forces while underestimating both the resistance of the Ukrainian people and the resolve of the West, which has punished Moscow with largely coordinated sanctions.

“Putin has massively misjudged the situation,” Fleming said in a speech in Canberra at the Australian National University, according to a transcript of his remarks. “We believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth.”

Citing new intelligence, Fleming said there was evidence that Russian soldiers had low morale and were poorly equipped.

“We’ve seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale – refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft,” Fleming said.

Reuters was unable to independently confirm GCHQ’s analysis.

GCHQ, which gathers communications from around the world to identify and disrupt threats to Britain, has a close relationship with the U.S. National Security Agency and with the eavesdropping agencies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand in a consortium called “Five Eyes”.

Russia’s defence ministry says its armed forces are professional and carrying out their duty in Ukraine with considerable success. It says the West has spread lies about the operation in an attempt to bring down Russia.

The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of its precision-guided missiles, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters. read more

Putin was misled by advisers who were too scared to tell him how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Western sanctions have been, U.S. and European officials said on Wednesday. read more The Kremlin made no immediate comment.

Putin says the “special military operation” in Ukraine is necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia and Moscow had to defend against the persecution of Russian-speaking people by Ukraine.

Ukraine says it is fighting against an imperial-style land grab and that Putin’s claims of genocide are nonsense.

Russia says that the West has effectively declared economic war on Russia and so it will now turn eastwards, away from Europe and build a partnership with China.

“But there are risks to them both (and more for China) in being too closely aligned,” Fleming said.

“Russia understands that long term, China will become increasingly strong militarily and economically. Some of their interests conflict; Russia could be squeezed out of the equation.” (Source: Reuters)

30 Mar 22. How Ukraine is outperforming Russia’s air force. The Ukrainian fighter aces have thrown out their flying rule book – while also knowing the Russian one inside out. Ukraine’s air force is a relic of the Soviet era, with Russia equipped with far more modern and advanced aircraft.

Colonel Yuri Ignat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, told Forces News Ukraine is “fighting with the equipment of the 70s and 80s”. Yet, Ukraine is exceeding expectations against the Russian air force, with Russia struggling tactically to quell those from Ukraine. One reason could be the training help received by Ukraine after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

‘Juice’, a Ukrainian fighter pilot known by his callsign, told Forces News that Ukrainian pilots were not just taught the basics.

“From 2014, we are taught that we need to be very creative, we need to be tactically flexible,” he said.

And it is that tactical flexibility – flying low, doing the unexpected – that’s causing the Russians headaches.

The Ukrainian fighter aces have thrown out their flying rule book, while also knowing the Russian one inside out.

Paul Beaver, an air power historian, told Forces News there is no doubt Ukraine’s air force is “on top of their game at the moment”.

Watch: Ukraine – could Russia be tempted to launch an amphibious assault?

“A lot of the senior people would’ve been trained in the Russian air force, they understand the tactics, the techniques and procedures that are used by the Russians,” he said.

“My understanding of Russian tactics is it’s very much by wrote, [the] way they fly is exactly as the manual says, they are not allowed to deviate.

“Ukrainians, on the other hand, are totally able to exploit every situation.”

Ukraine hasn’t been able to upgrade much of its air power, but it has been making the best of what it’s got in terms of tactical usability.

Colonel Ignat said Ukraine “did not sit by idly” since the annexation of Crimea.

Watch: Is Ukraine showing early signs of winning war against Russia?

“We understood that there could be such a scenario of events that happened, especially in the last two years. We have conducted many exercises with aviation, with anti-aircraft forces,” he said.

Ukraine has been learning from the West with NATO countries, especially the UK and US, helping them better manage the aircraft they have. But despite a great start, everyone knows daring flying, working miracles with servicing, grit and determination can only take you so far. Ukraine has renewed its plea for either more Soviet-era jets or even F-16s to be made available to them to even up the fight. (Source: forces.net)

30 Mar 22. Beijing moves to strengthen Moscow ties in wake of Ukraine invasion. Russian and Chinese foreign ministers meet for first time since the conflict began. China has reaffirmed its partnership with Russia and said it wanted to push bilateral relations “to a higher level”, as Moscow faced international sanctions and widespread criticism over its invasion of Ukraine. In the first meeting between the countries since Russia started the war a month ago, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, that “the two sides’ will to develop bilateral ties is even firmer, our confidence in advancing co-operation in various areas even stronger”, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement. Lavrov, who is visiting Beijing for multilateral talks on Afghanistan, is due to travel on Thursday to India, another key partner of Russia that has refused to criticise the attack on Ukraine. India has abstained in UN votes condemning the invasion. The Chinese readout of the Lavrov-Wang meeting also repeated support for the Russian security concerns which Moscow claims drove it to attack Ukraine. “The Ukrainian issue . . . is not only the outbreak of the long-term accumulation of security conflicts in Europe, but also the result of the cold war mentality and group confrontation,” Wang said. “In the long run, we should learn the lessons of the Ukraine crisis, respond to the legitimate security concerns of all parties based on the principles of mutual respect and indivisibility of security.” It follows the agreement reached last month between China president Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to deepen co-operation across a range of security, political and economic areas. (Source: FT.com)

29 Mar 22. In villages near Kyiv, how Ukraine has kept Russia’s army at bay.

Summary
Towns and villages around Kyiv bear brunt of fighting
Ukrainian forces have largely held Russians at bay
Many residents have stayed on despite fierce clashes
Material damage extensive, but Ukrainians voice defiance
Russian setbacks around capital thwart wider objectives

The burnt wreckage of two Russian tanks with blown off turrets and several armoured personnel carriers attest the ferocity of last week’s clashes in Lukyanivka village just outside Kyiv. The charred corpse of a Russian soldier lies in a field nearby.

“There were mortars so strong that it was scary even in the cellar,” local resident Valeriy Hudym told Reuters on Sunday, two days after Ukrainian soldiers seized back control of Lukyanivka in a five-hour battle with the Russians.

“Tanks were firing, artillery, and machine guns. Everything possible was there,” Hudym said. Two Ukrainian soldiers, involved in the battle to retake the village, said the fighting was intense.

More than a month since Russia’s invasion, the defence of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv has played out in heavy clashes in places like Lukyanivka and the nearby town of Brovary to the east, Irpin and Bucha to the northwest and Makariv to the west.

When the histories are written such towns and villages may be minor details, but they are where the Russian advance has been halted, sometimes by small, mobile Ukrainian units wielding anti-tank weapons shipped in from abroad.

Moscow promised at peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday that it would drastically scale back operations around Kyiv to help the dialogue.

In Lukyanivka, two hours’ drive from the centre of Kyiv, residents recall warning Russian troops who had occupied their settlement to leave while they could.

“I have a neighbour called Svitlana. She told them openly to their face: ‘Guys, go home. You will be killed here’,” Hudym said. Reuters was unable to independently confirm this.

The reversal in Lukyanivka has been repeated in areas around the northern half of the capital, as Ukrainian troops claw back territory lost in the first month of fighting in small battles, without scoring a decisive victory.

The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the military situation around Kyiv.

But the small victories have dealt a psychological blow to a more powerful enemy and shown how nimble units with knowledge of the area can defend lines and even push them back, according to military experts.

They also serve strategic goals – to keep Russian artillery further from the city centre and prevent the invading army from fully encircling Kyiv, the experts said.

Cities including Kharkiv and Mariupol have suffered heavy bombardment as Russian ground advances stalled – part of what the Pentagon and other Western military officials describe as a sign of Russian frustration at the lack of progress.

Kyiv has also been struck by shells and missiles, and at least 264 civilians have been killed according to city authorities. But the scale of devastation, particularly to the city centre, is far smaller, according to witnesses.

Russia describes its actions in Ukraine as a “special operation” with the aim of demilitarising its neighbour. It has denied targeting civilians.

In Lukyanivka, Reuters saw Ukrainian soldiers driving away two apparently serviceable Russian heavy tanks captured during the fighting.

“We knocked out the Russians. The Russians are now being moved a few kilometres away,” said Marat Saifulin, from the Ukrainian “Brotherhood battalion” that took part in recapturing the village in an attack that lasted from noon until dusk.

SETBACKS AND RESISTANCE

CIA Director William Burns said in early March that the intention of Russian President Vladimir Putin was to seize Kyiv within two days of the start of the invasion on Feb. 24.

Putin and Russian officials have consistently said that Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has gone according to plan.

However, two early setbacks suggested it would not be plain sailing for an available Russian force estimated by some diplomats before the war at around 190,000 troops. Russia has not given a figure for its deployment in Ukraine.

Russian paratroopers attacked Hostomel airport, a potential bridgehead northwest of Kyiv, on the first day of the invasion. But heavy fighting there slowed the Russian advance toward the capital, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Satellite imagery also captured a huge column of military hardware stretching 40 miles (64 km) and coming from a similar direction.

Seen by some Western defence officials as a major threat to Kyiv in the first days of the war, by March 10 it had largely dispersed, with some vehicles spreading into surrounding towns.

A senior U.S. defence official said in early March that Russia’s advance on Kyiv, including the convoy, appeared to be stalling because of logistical problems including shortage of food and fuel, as well as low morale among some units.

Attacks by small units of Ukrainian troops on advancing tank columns, in some cases using shoulder-held anti-tank weapons such as the U.S.-made Javelin system, were also a factor in bogging down Russia’s military machine.

To the east, in Brovary, a convoy of Russian tanks was repelled after several were destroyed in an ambush captured in dramatic drone footage released by pro-Ukrainian forces.

To the north in Bucha, near Irpin, the town’s mayor filmed scenes of burnt out tanks and armoured vehicles still smouldering after coming under fierce attack.

In Irpin, Ukrainian forces destroyed a large bridge linking northwestern towns to Kyiv as a way of stalling the enemy’s progress. On Monday, Irpin’s mayor said Ukraine was back in full control. Reuters could not immediately verify his claim.

The result of the flexible defensive strategy and Russian shortcomings has been no major advances on Kyiv for several days.

In the city, where only half the peacetime population of 3.4 million remains, there have been signs of normal life returning to the streets, with some shops, restaurants and cinemas opening and people enjoying the spring sunshine in parks.

Hopes that the immediate threat to the capital may be receding were fuelled last week by the head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate.

He said that the first phase of the operation in Ukraine had largely been completed and that Russian forces would henceforth concentrate on the Donbass region in the east.

That appeared to chime with Western intelligence assessments that Russian forces had abandoned, at least for the moment, their active attempt to take Kyiv following heavy losses and unexpectedly stubborn Ukrainian defences.

PAYING PENSIONS, POOR MORALE

On many roads leading out of Kyiv, wrecked houses and debris show the price paid by those who decided to stay. Gas and electricity is often cut and there is no certainty about when and where the next missile might fall.

In Krasylivka village, 92-year-old Hanna Yevdokimova said the invasion was her third conflict after the Soviet-Finnish Winter War of 1939-1940 and World War Two, when she saw German troops march through the village.

Last week, her home was hit by missile wreckage. A twisted fragment of a Russian Kalibr missile lay 100 metres (328 ft) away in a neighbour’s garden.

“What can I do? All I want is to rebuild so that I can die in my own home,” she said.

Some residents of Lukyanivka said they spent nearly a month under Russian occupation as virtual prisoners in their own homes, their mobile phones confiscated and movement only permitted under armed escort.

Now they can come and go as they please amid badly damaged houses.

Near Makariv west of Kyiv, which is still contested, heavy shelling could be heard last week. Even so, the town’s mayor Vadym Tokar travelled through surrounding villages wearing military fatigues and handing out pensions to the elderly.

Farmer Vasyl Chaylo, from Peremoha, described what he said were fearful Russian conscripts, short on rations and disciplined by tougher professional fighters.

“They are afraid. According to my observation, some of them perhaps do not want to fight and want to surrender, but they are kept in line by special forces,” he said.

Chaylo added that he had asked tank crews who set up outside his house how long their dry rations would last and been told a week. “They came to us on the eighth day and said that they had nothing to eat.”

Russia’s defence ministry has acknowledged some conscripts have taken part in the conflict, after earlier denials by the Kremlin and military authorities. The ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment about rations.

Halyna Shybka, a former nurse in a military hospital in Kyiv for 25 years, ignored the entreaties of her grandchildren and remains with her husband Mykola in the house in Kalynivka, near the frontlines of Brovary, where they have lived in since 1974.

“They tried to persuade us in every way they could to leave with them, but I wanted to stay,” she said, pouring cups of tea in her small kitchen, the sound of outgoing Ukrainian artillery fire rumbling in the background.

“This is our land, we’re not going to leave.” (Source: Reuters)

Ukraine Conflict Update – March 31

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE