Ukraine Conflict Update

14 Mar 22. Latest Updates

Intense bombardments and fighting continue in multiple cities across the frontline, particularly in Mariupol where sustained Russian attacks and dwindling supplies undermine the defence. This morning, 14 March, an apartment block in the Obolon district of northern Kyiv was shelled, leaving at least two dead, while air strikes in Sumy, Chernihiv and Mykolaiv have left numerous further civilians dead. Notably, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today accused the US and EU of “provoking” Russia into storming Ukrainian cities. According to Peskov, President Vladimir Putin has given orders to hold back on an immediate assault on large cities “because the civilian losses would be large”, though he did state that the Kremlin hasn’t ruled out taking Ukrainian cities under its “full control”.
This comes as Russian forces continue to tighten their perimeter and concentrate a significant amount of combat power around Kyiv. While it remains to be seen whether a frontal assault on Kyiv will occur in the coming days, the Kremlin’s statements reinforce our assessment that Russian forces will want to avoid protracted urban fighting if possible. In a direct assault, the Russians would face extremely high casualties, particularly after the defenders have had almost three weeks to prepare the city’s defences. Instead, other reports continue to indicate that Russian forces are purposefully targeting critical food and water sources in key cities, with an air raid destroying a water pump at the Chernihivvodokanal pumping station, which provides water to the city of Chernihiv. As such, it remains highly likely that Russian forces will continue to cut off supplies to Kyiv and other cities to avoid unnecessary military casualties on their part, while tightening the perimeter to the north, west, east and increasingly south. The siege of Mariupol will likely prove the most important precedent in this respect, though Russian forces will likely be more reticent to bombard Kyiv to the same intensity given the city’s symbolic status and potential seat of a puppet pro-Russian regime.
Ukraine’s national energy company, Ukrenergo, stated on 14 March that the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant had once again lost power. Russian forces have reportedly damaged a high-voltage power line for the second time, coming only days after power was restored after the first incident. There is currently around 20 tons of nuclear waste which must be constantly cooled to prevent the release of radiation from the plant, which sustained disruptions to power supplies will put at risk. The plant is reportedly relying on back-up diesel generators. Ukrainian officials last week alleged that Russian forces could stage a false-flag incident at the Chernobyl nuclear plant.
According to sources cited in a Wall Street Journal article published on 13 March, Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to numerous prominent Western multinationals in Russia, threatening asset seizures and arrests of officials of firms looking to withdraw from the country. While the Russian Embassy in the US has denied these claims, Russian authorities have reportedly issued the warnings via letters, calls and in-person visits to companies including Coca-Cola Co., McDonald’s Corp., Procter & Gamble Co., International Business Machines Corp. and Yum Brands Inc. Specifically, they reportedly threatened to arrest officials who have criticised the government as well as threatened to seize company assets, including intellectual property. These reports reinforce earlier assessments that the business environment for Western firms will continue to deteriorate, with de facto nationalisations increasingly likely for firms that have taken a stand opposing the war in Ukraine and moved to cease their Russian operations. The warnings of arrest underline in particular the mounting threats of arbitrary detention and legal action against executives, with the FSB likely conducting investigations into these firms, with corresponding attempts to intercept corporate communications and those between staff members.
However, indirect pressure is also mounting on multinationals operating in Russia from the Ukrainian government. Today, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a global boycott of international companies that have kept their operations in Russia. This is the latest development in a materialising “name and shame” campaign we first identified as a key indicator last week (see our attached Tripwires and Triggers report), and while Kuleba has not yet named any specific company, it is likely Kyiv will do so in the coming days as it clearly intends to orchestrate a global boycott campaign. This underscores the mounting reputational risk for firms retaining operations inside Russia, with the Ukrainian government likely to utilise its considerable media and social media influence to encourage pro-Ukrainian activist groups to organise boycott campaigns in key international markets. Looking ahead, this will also increase the risk of physical activism targeting headquarters and sites of boycotted firms in Europe and North America in particular.
In line with Russia’s growing offensive against social media platforms and efforts to establish control over the information landscape, Instagram was blocked on 14 March. The move to restrict Instagram follows its parent company, Meta’s, decision last week to allow users to post messages calling for violence against Russians and the death of President Vladimir Putin. Instagram is one of the most popular platforms amongst young Russians and its designation as a “restricted” resource – along with the blocking of Facebook and Twitter – will further limit the available information regarding the war in Ukraine. More broadly, as Putin has failed to achieve a quick victory in Ukraine and the number of casualties continues to grow, the clampdown on social media will only intensify, with information sharing platforms in general having become somewhat of a battleground between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian accounts. The Kremlin will also continue deploying Russian speaking social media influencers to spread its narrative and justify the invasion. Additionally, as the war evolves, so will the Kremlin’s methods to spread false information and spin the narrative in its favour for the domestic audience.
On 14 March, Reuters cited numerous unnamed officials in the Indian government that New Delhi is considering taking up a Russian offer for discounted oil and other key export commodities. According to the officials, such an arrangement would be paid for through a proposed ruble-rupee trade mechanism. India currently imports over 80% of its oil and derived products, but only 2-3% is sourced from Russia. However, cheap Russian oil exports will likely prove an attractive alternative for New Delhi amid rising oil and related commodity prices and an inflation rate now over 13%. New Delhi was notably already considering increasing Russian oil imports prior to the invasion in order to diversify its supply and reduce dependency upon Middle Eastern exporters. Furthermore, Indian state-owned firms retain stakes in numerous Russian oilfields and joint ventures in the sector. As such, the signing of new import contracts may also serve to protect these joint ventures in the face of mounting international sanctions and reduce costs, as India faces an increase of USD 50 billion in its import bill for the 2022-23 financial year. Nevertheless, such contracts would take time to implement if New Delhi agrees, providing limited scope for the Indian market to make up significant shortfalls in Russian revenues in the short term, as Russia continues to struggle to find buyers for its commodities.
In related developments, US officials claimed on 13 March that Russia has asked China for weapons and financial aid. Both Chinese and Russian authorities have denied the claims, and while the US has provided no details as to the exact form of the request, it is likely aimed at mitigating shortages of key munitions, components and spare parts. The abrupt withdrawal of Western firms from Russia has severely disrupted Russian supply chains, including military ones, and as the war extends into its third week the Russian armed forces will likely be running low on some equipment and munitions. Washington has indicated its growing concern over China’s potential role in the current conflict, with financial or military aid likely to undermine Western sanction efforts. Nevertheless, overt financial or military assistance would risk international economic penalties on Chinese firms and significantly worsen Beijing’s already tense trading relations with the US. As such, it remains unclear whether Beijing will agree to Russia’s request considering it is unlikely to want to prolong a conflict which is having such a negative impact on international energy and commodity stability.
The Wagner Group is reported t be recruiting mercenaries in the Donbas region whilst Syria and other Middle East countries are supplying 16000 soldiers. Russia has already used 4000 conscripts although mass mobilisation is not expected.
Russia has stalled its advances whilst it reorganises its Command And Control systems to lessen losses. Vehicle losses have fallen with helicopters escorting convoys. No country has deployed 200,000 troops since 1945 so there are lessons being learnt as the Russians advance; 45,000 body bags were prepared prior to the invasion so heavy casualties were expected. Mobile crematoria have also been seen. Reports sugest that Russian troops in the Donbas region are using their cmmms systems according to tactics, thus they don’t need to keep the 4G airwaves open for open comms using mobile phones.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims to have destroyed a military airfield in Vasylkiv, southwest of Kyiv, using high-precision weapons on 12 March. The location is Ukraine’s main centre for signals intelligence in the city of Brovary, east of the capital. Claims have not yet been independently verified, though videos released on social media platforms purportedly show a plume of smoke over the military airfield. It must be noted that despite Russian sources reporting their use of precision weaponry, the British MoD reports that Russian tactical aircraft supporting the advance of ground troops are primarily relying on unguided “dumb” munitions. These weapons are relatively indiscriminate, thereby increasing the likelihood of civilian casualties, particularly in densely populated urban areas.
On 12 March, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Moscow has warned the US that it could target Western arms shipments to Ukraine. During the press conference, Ryabkov said “that pumping weapons from a number of countries it orchestrates isn’t just a dangerous move, it’s an action that makes those convoys legitimate targets”. This aligns with previous assessments that Russia is unlikely to continue tolerating the shipments of critical military equipment, including MANPADS and anti-tank weaponry, without some sort of response, particularly as Ukrainian resistance continues to stall Russia’s offensives. Preventing these shipments will be a key medium-term goal of the Kremlin in order to prevent, or mitigate the potential for, the current war descending into a protracted insurgency supported by Western arms supplies. Ryabkov did not clarify whether the “legitimate targets” would apply to convoys that had crossed the border into Ukraine or also those convoys that had yet to cross the border. At this stage it remains most likely that Russian forces would target known convoys only once they are inside Ukraine, given the escalatory nature of any attack in a NATO country, even if perceived as a legitimate military target. Nevertheless, that remains a potential point of escalation in the coming weeks and months if Western countries do not cease supplying arms to Ukraine, but further warnings would likely pre-empt such an attack given Russia’s desire to avoid an unnecessary escalation.
On 12 March the head of the Russian space agency Dmitry Rogozin warned that sanctions against Russia could lead to the International Space Station (ISS) to crash. He called for sanctions to be lifted because they could disrupt the operations of Russian spacecraft servicing the ISS. Given that the Russian section of the station helps correct its ISS’s orbit, Rogozin has warned that this could cause the structure to fall into the sea or land. NASA have previously stated that they are working on a solution to maintain the ISS’s orbit without Russian assistance, but Rogozin’s comments are likely designed to remind the international community of the further escalatory levers available to Moscow that could disrupt the space sector.
Following strikes on Belarusian villages across the border with Ukraine by Russian forces on 11 March, Ukrainian officials claim that an attack by Belarusian forces is imminent. On 12 March, the Belarusian government announced that it is sending five battalion tactical groups to replace the ones deployed at the Ukrainian borders. However, the Lukashenka government continues to state that it does not plan to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though Russian pressure is likely mounting on Minsk to more openly support offensive operations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian forces have kidnapped the mayor of the south-eastern city of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov. On 11 March, officials released video footage of what appears to be armed soldiers escorting Fedorov out of a building in the city centre, though the identity of the individual cannot be verified from the video. The alleged abduction comes days after Fedorov publicly refused to cooperate with occupying Russian forces, claiming they had ransacked government offices and exiled his team. In response, hundreds of residents have gathered outside district administrative buildings demanding that Russian forces release the mayor. The protests themselves do not represent a novel development, as Melitopol residents have conducted demonstrations every day since Russian forces captured the city on 26 February. However, Zelensky claims that the abduction marks a “new stage of terror” in the invasion, with Russian forces looking to “physically eliminate representatives of legitimate local Ukrainian authorities” in a bid to suppress organised resistance to occupation. However, strong opposition among residents will elevate the risk of violent clashes between Ukrainian civilians and Russian forces, who are likely to seek to quell dissent and crush popular opposition among residents.
Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, announced that regular humanitarian corridors will open today, 12 March, from 0900 (local time), 0700 GMT, to facilitate civilian evacuation and humanitarian aid shipments. In particular, an aid and bus convoy will depart from Zaporizhzhia to the city of Mariupol via Vasylivka, Melitopol, Berdyansk and Manhush. There is also a corridor between the town of Pology, Zaporizhzhia region, in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, passing Tokmak, Vasylivka and Kamianske. A number of routes will also be operating in the Kyiv and Sumy regions. However, Russian shelling and possible clashes with Ukrainian forces are likely to generate disruptions to routes throughout the day, delaying civilians evacuations and aid deliveries, as indicated by reports over the past week.
On 12 March the Deputy of Kherson Regional Council Serhiy Khlan alleged that Russian occupying forces are preparing to stage a referendum in Kherson oblast with the aim of proclaiming the region the KhNR. Russia has utilised similar referenda in the past, most notably in occupied-Crimea, but this latest development aligns with similar unconfirmed reports last week that pro-Russian citizens in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast had been planning to declare a separatist republic in Western Ukraine. This may indicate Russian plans to effectively dismember a unitary Ukraine into a federation made up of separate oblasts. InformNapalm yesterday, 11 March, published unverified reports allegedly outlining plans for how Russia intends to control Ukraine during and after the war that had allegedly been circulated among high-ranking officials and military personnel. The report included the option of holding referenda (organised by local self-government bodies) on the secession of respective regions from Ukraine as a means of controlling the country. It should be stated that this report remains unconfirmed, but the statement of the Kherson official today would align with this. If such a referendum is held, which remains very plausible given precedents in Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, this would strongly suggest this is what the Russians plan in other oblasts across the country, with the likely ultimate aim of disempowering the unitary government in Kyiv.

FORECAST

A new round of talks between Ukraine and Russia commenced today, 14 March. Despite the Ukrainian side continuing to demand an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops, this latest round of discussions is taking place following a deadly air strike on a residential building in Kyiv and Russia’s allegations that a shot-down Ukrainian missile killed over a dozen civilians in Donetsk. As such, the prospects of today’s negotiations achieving a breakthrough are minimal. Nevertheless, the economic impact of the sanctions is already being felt across Russian society and Putin’s inability to secure a quick victory in Ukraine may be one of the reasons for Moscow’s reported appeal to China for military aid – though the Kremlin has denied this. Meanwhile, the investment climate in Russia will continue to deteriorate, with reports of Russian authorities threatening to arrest officials who have criticised the government and threatening to seize assets from companies that have taken an anti-Russia stance set to only increase in the weeks ahead.

Regarding evacuation and safe passage out of Kyiv and into western Ukraine, as of 14 March, the southbound H01 remains a comparatively safer route for access to/exit from Kyiv, then connecting with westbound roads such as the P32 through Bila Tserkva. Russian forces bombarded the Vasylkiv airport on 12 March, highlighting the elevated security risks posed by airstrikes on routes southwest and south of Kyiv as Russian ground troops continue to face challenges encircling the capital. For evacuation from Kyiv, therefore, the window for safe departure is increasingly limited. Russian armour and infantry units continue to be dispersed around the forests north and south of the E40, and as such, this route remains unsafe. It is likely that Russian mechanised forces will continue pushing south towards Fastiv to establish full control over the P04 route as well. As such, Byshev Airport on the westbound P04 remains a likely target for the Russian push to encircle Kyiv. No fighting in the airport’s premises has been observed as of this Alert’s publication, but we consider this to be a likely target for Russian forces. In comparative terms, therefore, the H01/P01 remains the safest route out of the city, although any travel is undertaken at one’s own risk as all approaches to Kyiv are vulnerable to shelling or missile strikes.

SOCMINT indicates ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian rear echelon units continue to take place on the P02, P69, M07 circular and H01/P01 in Kyiv. These are likely conducted in order to identify potential Russian fifth columnists/saboteurs, and Ukrainian units conducting these checks are believed to be operating on capture/kill orders. As such those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution.

Russia: Corporate flight likely to persist despite threats of arrests and seizures to foreign entities

On 13 March, local sources cited by international media claimed that Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to several foreign entities which have suspended in-country operations, such as Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Procter & Gamble. Allegedly Russian authorities have made threats to arrest officials who have criticised the government or to seize company assets, including intellectual property. The warnings have reportedly driven at least one of the targeted companies to limit communications between its Russian business and the rest of the firm, amid concerns that the Russian government could intercept colleagues’ text messages and emails. Such intimidation tactics and threats underscore the continuous decline of the country’s business environment, likely to persist in the coming weeks despite Moscow’s efforts to dissuade further corporate and capital flight to mitigate the economic impact of broad international sanctions. (Source: Sibylline)

President Biden Signs New Russia-Related Executive Order Prohibiting Certain Imports, Exports, and New Investment

In coordination with Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom as well as the European Union leaders, President Biden has signed a new Russia-related Executive Order Prohibiting Certain Imports, Exports, and New Investment with Respect to Continued Russian Federation Aggression. Specifically, this E.O. prohibits:

The importation into the United States of the following products of Russian Federation origin: fish, seafood, and preparations thereof; alcoholic beverages; non-industrial diamonds; and any other products of Russian Federation origin as may be determined by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Commerce;
The exportation, reexportation, sale, or supply, directly or indirectly, from the United States, or by a United States person, wherever located, of luxury goods, and any other items as may be determined by the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of the Treasury, to any person located in the Russian Federation;
New investment in any sector of the Russian Federation economy as may be determined by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, by a United States person, wherever located;
The exportation, reexportation, sale, or supply, directly or indirectly, from the United States, or by a United States person, wherever located, of U.S. dollar-denominated banknotes to the Government of the Russian Federation or any person located in the Russian Federation; and
Any approval, financing, facilitation, or guarantee by a United States person, wherever located, of a transaction by a foreign person where the transaction by that foreign person would be prohibited by this section if performed by a United States person or within the United States.

* BIS Restricts the Export of Luxury Goods to Russia and Belarus and to Russian and Belarusian Oligarchs and Malign Actors in Latest Response to Aggression Against Ukraine. In response to President Biden’s latest Russia-related Executive Order reported in Item 1 above, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has imposed restrictions on the export, reexport, and transfer (in country) of luxury goods to all end users in the Russian Federation (Russia) and Belarus and to certain Russian and Belarusian oligarchs and malign actors located worldwide. This rule significant restrictions on persons and organizations within Russia and Belarus that have the financial resources to purchase U.S.-origin luxury goods. Additionally, this rule imposes additional costs on certain Russian and Belarusian oligarchs and malign actors (regardless of their location) who have been designated by the U.S. Department of the Treasury as Specially Designated Nationals in connection with their support for the Russian government. It provides a list of U.S.-origin luxury goods that are impacted by today’s sanctions and includes certain spirits, tobacco products, clothing items, jewelry, vehicles, and antique goods. Click here for the Federal Register notice on this rule scheduled to be published on March 16. This rule is effective, however, as of March 11.

*OFAC Implements New Executive Order. To implement President Biden’s latest Russia-related Executive Order reported in Item 1 above, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued Russia-related General License 17, General License 18, and General License 19 and Ukraine-related General License 23. OFAC has also published new Frequently Asked Questions and amended one Frequently Asked Question. In addition, OFAC has issued a new round of sanctions targeting Russian and Kremlin elites, oligarchs, and Russia’s political and national security leaders who have supported Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. These actions include designating regime elites and business executives who are associates and facilitators of the Russian regime, including three immediate family members of President Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitriy Sergeevich Peskov; Russian tycoon and Kremlin insider Viktor Vekselberg; and the Management Board of the sanctioned VTB Bank. Additionally, OFAC designated 12 members of the Russian State Duma, including Vyacheslav Victorovich Volodin, who is also a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council. OFAC has also issued guidance, in line with a G7 leaders statement, to guard against potential attempts to use virtual currency to evade U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia. As a result of these actions, all property and interests in property of the individuals above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. All transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or blocked persons are prohibited unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC, or exempt. These prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person and the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person. Click here for further identifying information on the designated individuals. See also U.S. Customs’ CSMS #51289159 with respect to OFAC’s General License No. 17.

*OFAC Targets Russian Individuals and Entities Supporting DPRK Weapons of Mass Destruction and Ballistic Missile Programs. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned two individuals and three entities for supporting the DPRK’s ongoing development of its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile programs in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs). The DPRK has conducted 11 ballistic missile launches since the beginning of the year, most recently on March 4, 2022 (EST). This action targets a group of foreign individuals and companies that aid a DPRK defense industry-related procurement agent in Russia; much of this activity also violates UN prohibitions with respect to the DPRK. As a result of this action, all property and interests in property of the individuals and entities that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within the United States (including transactions transiting the United States) that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons. In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the designated individuals or entities designated may themselves be exposed to designation. Furthermore, any foreign financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant transaction or provides significant financial services for any of the designated individuals or entities designated could be subject to U.S. correspondent or payable-through account sanctions. Click here for further identifying information on the designated individuals and entities.

*UK OFSI Posts Blog on UK’s Russian Sanctions. The U.K. government’s Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) has posted a blog setting out some of the changes in U.K. sanctions against Russia and Belarus and where stakeholders can find more information. (Source: glstrade.com)

World News

Flares in regional tensions and Russian invasion of Ukraine threaten the revival of the nuclear deal

EU officials have confirmed the suspension of nuclear deal talks with Iran and the other signatories, citing unresolved “external factors”. Russian requests have certainly complicated the process, however, other key sticking points also remain unresolved including Iran’s demand for guarantees that no US president can leave a future deal and disagreements over access to undeclared sites for the International Atomic Energy Agency. Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US-Russian tensions are almost certainly at the forefront of Moscow and Washington’s foreign policy concerns, overtaking nuclear deal developments. As such, despite its commitment to preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state, Russia could increasingly exploit nuclear talks and warming relations with Iran as leverage against Western powers if military advances in Ukraine stall. As such, the Kremlin may be somewhat willing to overlook certain Iranian actions, bolstering hardline Iranian forces and their targeting of US-linked targets across the Middle East and Gulf. At the same time, Iranian frustration is growing as talks stall once again. Despite hardline rhetoric from Tehran, the government’s urgency for sanctions relief is deepening as domestic unrest grows following the winter period. Notably, protests in Iran are increasingly triggered by more diverse issues, though water insecurity and mismanagement are common drivers. As anti-government sentiment spreads, including in typically conservative strongholds, Iranian security forces including the IRGC are likely to engage in more hostile activities abroad.

Iran-Iraq: Missile strike elevates renewed Israel-Iran tit-for-tat hostilities; heightening threats to military targets and regional travel

On 13 March, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced they had carried out a missile attack overnight on Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, claiming responsibility for the targeting of Israeli “strategic centres”. While this is not the first incident of this kind, with Iran targeting the same location in April 2021, the attack comes amid deteriorating relations with Moscow and Washington on the Iranian nuclear talks in Vienna, with Russia’s latest demands stalling an agreement. With the attack likely conducted in response to Israeli strikes which killed Iranian military personnel in Syria last week, the incident may prompt a broader return to tit-for-tat hostilities with Israel at a critical time for nuclear negotiations. This may drive further Iran-linked strikes on targets in the Kurdistan region, though with less frequency than those in Iraq in the coming months, elevating threats to overland travel and the targeting of military bases in the near term.

On 13 March, Iran struck US-linked targets in Erbil in the northern Kurdistan region of Iraq with a dozen ballistic missiles. Iranian state news sources published reports claiming that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missiles had struck Israeli ‘strategic centres’, though local authorities report that the attacks landed near the US consulate but did not cause any casualties or severe structural damage. The timing, location and purported target of the strikes is slightly unusual, and could instead be linked to Iraqi government formation negotiations as Iran-backed Shia groups struggle to maintain political influence following losses in October 2021 elections. Notably, Kurdish parties can play an important role in forming a governing majority, and Iran seeks to maintain its political influence via its proxy networks. Regardless of motive, Iranian insecurities regarding Iraq and the nuclear deal, the attack on US-linked targets and the subsequent claim of responsibility all raise the risk of further regional hostilities. Missile strikes elevate the risk of a return to tit-for-tat hostilities between Israel and Iran. The targeting of US-linked forces in Iraqi Kurdistan, by either by Iranian forces or Iran-linked militia in Iraq, is not unprecedented, however, there had been no major strikes in recent months before the 13 March attack. Iranian state media released a statement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claiming responsibility for the attacks in retaliation to Israeli airstrikes in Syria which killed two IRGC members on 7 March. Such tit-for-tat hostilities have occurred sporadically in recent years during bouts of elevated tensions; for instance, Israeli forces launched airstrikes on Iran-linked targets in northeast Damascus in April 2021, after Iranian missiles exploded near Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. The latest strikes moderately elevate the risk of a return to tit-for-tat attacks, though Israel is unlikely to engage in overtly escalatory responses to an attack beyond its borders. That said, the strikes come at a pivotal time in negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Russian demands that its trade with Iran be shielded from Western sanctions following the invasion on Ukraine, and Washington’s rejection of such a request, will likely disrupt progress towards an agreement. This could prompt Iran to harden its stance in talks as it desperately seeks sanctions relief. Notably, if Iran undertakes further nuclear advancements to pressure the signatories of the deal to ease sanctions, Israel would be more inclined to act. Israel’s very public rejection of the nuclear agreement and concerns over Iranian nuclear developments has previously taken the form of attacks on Iran’s critical infrastructure, cyber warfare and attacks in the maritime sphere.

Forecast

The latest strikes on Erbil suggest that Iran will continue to target US-linked locations in Iraq in particular, especially if Iran fears a loss of influence in Iraq or in the event of further Israeli strikes in Syria, with the IRGC’s overt claim of responsibility a further indication of more brazen military action in countries such as Iraq and across the Gulf. Should this lead to a resurgence in tit-for-tat incidents, commercial shipping lanes in the region will remain vulnerable to low-level attacks and cyber attacks could target critical or government infrastructure. Any spill over of hostilities could also drive aerial threats to Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Iran-backed Houthi. Notably, negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have significantly deteriorated in recent days despite the two states being scheduled to meet for the fifth round of diplomatic talks this week. Moreover, Iran’s hardline government will likely consider the UAE an acceptable target due to its deepening economic ties with Israel.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mali: Wagner group presence threatens effectiveness of France’s aerial support

On 11 March, the commander of Operation Barkhane, General Laurent Michon, announced that France will provide aerial support to Malian troops following the withdrawal of its counter-insurgency mission. However, the country will only be offering support to areas where Russian fighters of the private military contract group Wagner are not operating. France announced its decision to withdraw from Mali last month, following elevated tensions after the junta postponed elections by five years and the Wagner group contactors arrived in the country. France’s refusal to operate in the areas where Wagner contractors are present, which is currently Timbuktu and areas in the Mopti region, will undermine the capacity of aerial support to maintain raid response capabilities. Furthermore, deteriorated relations between Malian and French forces will likely impede co-operation efforts, threatening the effectiveness of air strikes as France will rely on Malian forces to identify accurate targets and call in strikes.

Mozambique: Cyclone Gombe will prolong disruptions to business operations

On 11 March, Cyclone Gombe struck north-eastern Mozambique, killing at least 11 people and impacting an estimated 15,000 people in Nampula and Zambezia provinces. Strong winds of up to 200 kilometres per hour destroyed infrastructure and landfall blocked roads across both provinces. Although the winds have weakened, heavy rainfall is expected to last for several days, heightening threats of flooding in Mozambique’s low-lying areas. Flooding has already devastated crops across the provinces, with food insecurity and poverty elevating threats of domestic unrest. Furthermore, 37 energy stations have reportedly been impacted, elevating threats of further power outages hindering businesses operations and communications. Cyclone Gombe is likely to exacerbate damage and impede the repair of roads following Storm Ana in January, sustaining disruption to overland movement between both southern and northern Mozambique and Malawian supply chains reliant on the Quelimane port corridor.

Ethiopia: Summary execution underlines threats to ethnic Tigrayans and will undermine efforts to remove sanctions

On 13 March, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission confirmed that Ethiopian military forces summarily executed 11 people, including burning one alive, on 3 March. The incident followed an ambush, likely by the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement (BPLM) rebel group, on a convoy of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam workers in Metekel, Benishangul-Gumuz region in which 20 soldiers, three civilians and 30 rebels were killed. Despite the likely involvement of the BPLM, authorities often accuse the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of having coordinated rebel activity, sporadically elevating threats to ethnic Tigrayans following rebel activity across Ethiopia. As such, the following day soldiers targeted ethnic Tigrayans, eight of whom were pulled off a civilian bus to be executed. Despite government pledges to punish the perpetrators the incident is likely to undermine efforts to improve relations with western governments and remove sanctions, as rights abuses undermine government pledges to pursue peace.

(Source: Sibylline)

14 Mar 22. The US has told allies that China signalled its willingness to provide military assistance to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to officials familiar with American diplomatic cables on the exchange. The cables, which were sent by the US state department to allies in Europe and Asia, did not say whether China had signalled that it would help Russia in the future or if it had already started providing military support. Nor did they say at which point in the conflict Beijing appeared open to offering the help. The Financial Times reported on Sunday that Russia had made the request for assistance at some point after the start of the now three-week invasion. The Russian offer and Chinese response have sounded alarm bells in the White House. US officials believe China is trying to help Russia while its top officials publicly call for a diplomatic solution to the war. The Chinese embassy in the US on Sunday said it had no knowledge of any Russian request or positive Chinese response to Moscow. Russia on Monday also denied making any request to China. A senior US defence official declined to say if China had provided military support after the Russian request, but said the Pentagon was watching the situation “very, very closely”. “If China does choose to materially support Russia in this war, there will likely be consequences for China,” the defence official said. (Source: FT.com)

BATTLESPACE Comment: Sources suggest that Russia has asked for a variety of UAVs including sUAVs and the Chinese Phantom UAV, tactical radios and precision missiles. It is likely that China may baulk at supplying lethal weapons for fear of US reprisals.

14 Mar 22. The head of Russia’s National Guard has said that Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine is not going as quickly as the Kremlin had wanted, in the strongest public acknowledgement yet that the invasion is not going to plan. Viktor Zolotov blamed the slower-than-expected progress on what he said were far-right Ukrainian forces hiding behind civilians, an accusation repeatedly made by officials in Russia. If Vladimir Putin has the choice of a humiliating defeat, which could bring his regime’s survival into question, or further escalation he may well double down on his bloody war. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Mar 22. The US has told allies that China signalled its willingness to provide military assistance to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to officials familiar with American diplomatic cables on the exchange. The cables, which were sent by the US state department to allies in Europe and Asia, did not say whether China had signalled that it would help Russia in the future or if it had already started providing military support. Nor did they say at which point in the conflict Beijing appeared open to offering the help. The Financial Times reported on Sunday that Russia had made the request for assistance at some point after the start of the now three-week invasion. The Russian offer and Chinese response have sounded alarm bells in the White House. US officials believe China is trying to help Russia while its top officials publicly call for a diplomatic solution to the war. The Chinese embassy in the US on Sunday said it had no knowledge of any Russian request or positive Chinese response to Moscow. Russia on Monday also denied making any request to China. A senior US defence official declined to say if China had provided military support after the Russian request, but said the Pentagon was watching the situation “very, very closely”. “If China does choose to materially support Russia in this war, there will likely be consequences for China,” the defence official said. (Source: FT.com)

BATTLESPACE Comment: Sources suggest that Russia has asked for a variety of UAVs including sUAVs and the Chinese Phantom UAV, tactical radios and precision missiles. It is likely that China may baulk at supplying lethal weapons for fear of US reprisals.

14 Mar 22. U.S. Strategy and the Real Lessons of the War in Ukraine: From Cooperation with Russia and China to Lasting Confrontation.

By Anthony H. Cordesman

Read Online: cs.is/3tOouA4

No one can yet predict just how much of a human tragedy the Russian invasion of Ukraine will create. What the U.S. and its strategic partners can predict, however, is that Russia will be a lasting threat as long as Putin or anyone like him remains in power. What is also equally clear is that while China may be less openly provocative and threatening, its competition with the United States presents a steadily growing threat, and China is moving from cooperation and civil competition to the possibility of a major military confrontation as well. If anything, President Xi has already proved that China can create a far more effective threat than Russia over the coming decade, and President Xi already controls a far a larger economy than President Putin.

China already sharply outspends Russia in building up its military forces. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Russia officially spent only $62.2 bn in FY 2021, although this is a high estimate based on comparative purchasing power – and it could be as high as $178bn. Russia’s military spending is sharply limited by its weak economy, and it cannot credibly do anything in the face of continued sanctions that will allow it to compete with the IISS estimate of $754bn for the United States and over $300bn for NATO European countries.

The World Bank does estimate that Russia did partly recover from the breakup of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) from a gross national product (GNP) of only $667bn in 1998 to $1,416bn in 2020 (measured in constant 2015 dollars), but this compares to $19,435 bn for the U.S. in 2020 (14 times larger) and $13,886 for the European Union (9.8 times larger).

In contrast, the World Bank estimates that China has seen its GDP rise from $1,123bn in 1991 to $14,632bn in 2020 (measured in constant 2015 dollars) – a figure 13 times larger than in 1991. China has steadily increased its official figures for military spending for over two decades, alongside its expanding economy. It officially spent $207.3bn on its military in 2021 according to the IISS, and its purchasing power could already be as high as $332bn. Some estimates indicate that China could equal the U.S. by 2035-2040.

For all the talk of resuming the Cold War, the reality is radically different. The United States and its strategic partners now confront two superpowers – not just one – and powers that pose both a global as well as a regional challenge. A rising China is also becoming the most serious threat. It is becoming a serious nuclear power, it is modernizing its conventional forces far more quickly than Russia, and it is a growing technological rival to the U.S. and its partners. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as its global trade and investment efforts are also a far more effective method to use its civil-economic power to win strategic influence.

Accordingly, the U.S. needs to do far more than simply react to the war in Ukraine and help to rebuild NATO. The challenge is global, and it will increase every year. The real lesson of the war in Ukraine is that the U.S. must now plan to work with its strategic partners indefinitely into the future and in ways that meet both authoritarian threats.

This commentary entitled, U.S. Strategy and the Real Lessons of the War in Ukraine: From Cooperation with Russia and China to Lasting Confrontation, is available for download at https://pardot.csis.org/e/906722/580ia2NBrAlSYhkbCXoXQvQyZZNlGX/3dtw79/529679362?h=vWt9Pu6YeaqaN0fzQ-fmZYX2Ka-9RcWehgfk4QNwGVA (Source: CSIS)

14 Mar 22. Chinese diplomats and prominent state media have repeated Russian disinformation reports about US-run biological laboratories in Ukraine, deepening tensions between Washington and Beijing ahead of a critical security meeting in Europe. Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy official, and Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, will meet in Rome on Monday, the first face-to-face meeting between senior China and US officials since Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine. The talks come against a backdrop of rising frustration in the west over China’s relationship with Russia and Beijing’s refusal to condemn the invasion. The Financial Times reported on Monday that Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing could undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country. However, China’s official rhetoric on the Ukraine conflict over the weekend concentrated on allegations that the US was using Ukraine to research dangerous pathogens and biological weapons. (Source: FT.com)

11 Mar 22. Sensing a feeding frenzy, German arms makers jockey for position. German companies are jockeying for position as the government tees up massive investments meant to drastically improve the state of the armed forces. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Feb. 27 proposal to ramp up defense expenditures by tens of billions of euros, spurred by Russia’s war on Ukraine, has defense officials in Berlin scrambling to identify spending opportunities that promise fast results, according to several company officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. So hasty is the process that a key official in the Defence Ministry’s acquisition office, Vice Adm. Carsten Stawitzki, signaled to company executives that certain acquisition rules could be outright circumvented in service of quick deliveries. Companies also were put on notice that they should drop outstanding procurement disputes on the docket with the ministry in order to partake in upcoming work.

“It’s all completely ad hoc at the moment,” said an industry official.

The nascent spending strategy appears to coalesce around three objectives, according to industry sources:

Clearing the maintenance backlog across the services to get hardware back to the force, even if it means cutting corners.
Increasing by 50% the volume of main weapon systems, which could mean more Puma infantry fighting vehicles, more K-130 corvettes and more Pegasus spy planes.
Finalizing only longer-term investments for which plans are already on the books. This category includes the Future Combat Air System, a next-generation aerial weapon led by Germany, France and Spain; the Main Ground Combat System, a pan-European tank project; and the Tornado replacement program, which could bring the F-35 jet to Germany in a dual-capable role under NATO’s nuclear sharing doctrine.

A spokesperson for the Defence Ministry did not return a request for comment on acquisition guidelines accompanying the proposed spending uptick. The prospect of more defense funding also puts the spotlight on Germany’s air and missile defense capabilities, moving companies to position themselves in a market where defense officials have unsuccessfully tried to move past the venerable Patriot system. Rheinmetall and MBDA Italy signed a memorandum of understanding this week aimed at finding “disruptive technologies and in the national and European defence funds domain” in air defense, per a joint statement. In that partnership, Rheinmetall bills itself as the air-defense and radar specialist, while MBDA would provide future interceptors. In the lower-tier segment, German officials are expected to fall back on a setup featuring the IRIS-T interceptor, as proposed by manufacturer Diehl in conjunction with Hensoldt and Rheinmetall in March 2021. The companies’ package of missiles, radars and launch vehicles is meant to intercept aircraft, combat helicopters and cruise missiles, a weapon mix similar to the Russian arsenal used in the invasion of Ukraine. The former government of Chancellor Angela Merkel quietly approved the export of IRIS-T firing units to Egypt, a controversial deal that became public only after Scholz assumed office. Now, one consideration for a speedier acquisition of an air defense shield is to route some elements not yet delivered to Cairo into Berlin’s stocks instead. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

14 Mar 22. Russia Attacks Kiev with Kalashnikov Kamikaze Drones. Russian troops have used small kamikaze drones known as KUB in attacks on the Ukrainian capital this week. One of Russian drones was shot down in the Podil neighborhood in Kyiv on Saturday. The light Unmanned Aerial System shot down was a kind of kamikaze drone known as KUB. The small UAS is developed by Russia’s most famous gun manufacturer Kalashnikov subsidiary ZALA Aero. It is designed to have a maximum speed of about 80 miles per hour, an endurance of 30 minutes, and an explosive payload of 7 pounds against “remote ground targets.” Kalashnikov says the drone — which can have a dwell time up to six hours — is an extremely precise and very effective weapon, incredibly hard to fight by traditional air defense systems. After the launch, the drone can loiter in the air to detect a target and then attack it from the upper hemisphere, being able to perform a diving pass along the vertical trajectory. The drone, which was shot down over Kyiv, contained explosives (plastids) with metal balls to inflict maximum human damage. (Source: UAS VISION/Defence Blog)

14 Mar 22. Ukraine’s leader expressed tentative hope for ceasefire talks on Monday even as Russian forces continued to shell his country’s cities, leaving hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped in siege conditions. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said his representatives were discussing a possible meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, as negotiators noted some positive movement on issues of substance in recent days. A fourth round of talks began on Monday morning, covering “peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops [and] security guarantees”, according to Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky. “Hard discussion,” he added in a tweet before the meeting via video link, warning that Russia still appeared to be under the “delusion that 19 days of violence against peaceful cities is the right strategy”. (Source: FT.com)

14 Mar 22. Runaway Soviet-Era Drone Crashes in Croatia. A Soviet-era reconnaissance drone flying across Hungary from Ukraine has crashed near the Croatian capital of Zagreb, leaving a big hole in the ground, the Croatian government says. An explosion was heard near Lake Jarun in Zagreb at around 11pm on Thursday. Police said several vehicles had been damaged and two parachutes found.

The incident raises two questions:

Where did it come from ?

It seems that this was actually a Tupolev Tu-141 “Strizh” reconnaissance drone that must have severely malfunctioned and crossed over the entirety of Hungary or parts of neighboring countries and into Croatia from Ukraine. Flying direct from Ukraine’s border to Zagreb is nearly a 350-mile journey. It has been reported that Ukraine has been putting the high-speed, Soviet-era drones to work in recent days following Russia’s invasion of the country. Ukraine is the only known current operator of the Tu-141.

The Tu-141 is a fascinating piece of Soviet-era hardware that Ukraine has upgraded and made useful following the invasion of Crimea in 2014. More of a cruise missile than a traditional drone, the aircraft is rocket-launched from its trailer and flies a predetermined course at transonic speed, collecting various forms of intelligence, before recovering via parachute. It can then be reset and used again.

It’s also possible that Russia has pulled some of these out of storage to act as crude decoys in a ploy to stimulate Ukraine’s air defenses, but we have no proof of this at this time. This crashed example would have been beyond its stated range from the Russian border, although it could have reached Zagreb if it was launched from Belarus.

Markiyan Lubkivsky, the chief adviser to the Ukrainian defense minister, told Croatian newspaper Jutarnji List that the crashed device did not belong to Ukraine and that the Ukrainian foreign ministry would later issue a statement on the incident.

“This drone did not have Ukrainian markings,” he was quoted as saying. “There were red stars on it” — a symbol of the Russian military.

Why was it not intercepted by NATO ?

“NATO’s integrated air and missile defence tracked the flight path of an object which subsequently crashed in Zagreb,” a NATO official confirmed in a statement. Hungarian authorities are also investigating the incident as “the airspace of several NATO member states, including Hungary, was involved in the drone flight,” foreign minister Péter Szijjártó said on Facebook.

Zagreb mayor Tomislav Tomašević said it was crucial

“to determine who piloted the aircraft and where it came from and to ensure that it never happens again”.

He said parts of the flying object are scattered in several locations and that it is incredible that no one was hurt.

A statement issued by Croatia’s government said the “pilotless military aircraft” crashed seven minutes after entering Croatia’s airspace from neighbouring Hungary at a speed of 700 kilometres per hour and an altitude of 1,300 metres.

According to a Press Release by the Romanian Ministry of National Defence Information and Public Relations Directorate

The Romanian air surveillance system picked up the signal of a low surface aircraft, Thursday March 10, most probably an UAV, that crossed the national air space for a very short time, under three minutes.

The aircraft entered the Romanian air space at approximately 2323 HRS, coming from Ukraine, and left the national air space at approximately 2326 HRS, heading towards Hungary.

The very short time for which this aircraft had flown through national air space, the high speed and low altitude, as well as the terrain and weather conditions at the time, did not allow engaging of other procedural means in order to further identity the aircraft.

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said that they were investigating how it was possible for an aircraft to spend more than an hour in the airspace of NATO member countries without being noticed.

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has reportedly already spoken to Viktor Orbán and NATO Ambassador Mario Nobilo. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said on Facebook that he had talked with his Croatian counterpart, Gordan Grlic Radman, about the case by phone. According to data currently available, the airspace of several NATO member states, including Hungary’s, have been affected in the flight path of the drone, he said. “During the assessment, we will closely cooperate with the Croatian authorities and other NATO allies,” Szijjártó noted. (Source: UAS VISION/Various)

11 Mar 22. Why has Russia’s emerging tech had so little impact on its invasion of Ukraine? What role is Russia’s emerging technology playing in their invasion of Ukraine?

The short answer: Not much right now, and that could be a problem as the conflict advances.

So far, the ongoing conflict has been a conventional war of iron and money. At least from public sources, Russia has not displayed the type of technologies that its military has been speculated to be developing or seen to be fielding in Syria and Crimea – advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, unmanned aerial vehicle swarms, and sensor fusion, to name a few.

What we have seen out of Russia is the type of cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns that have come to be expected from the Kremlin in times of crisis – none of these have proven to be game changers or displays of new capabilities thus far. It is not a stretch to say Putin may have lost the information war both abroad and domestically, ultimately failing to keep abreast of technological advancements.

Indeed, some of the most impressive displays of advanced tech seem to be coming from U.S. companies aiding Ukrainian efforts.

From Microsoft warning the Ukrainian government when it detected Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine’s digital infrastructure hours before any missile was fired to Elon Musk’s lightning response to a tweet from Ukraine’s Vice President asking for Starlink satellite internet (not to mention Spacex’s ability to rapidly update Starlink software to bypass Russian short lived attempts to jam them), U.S. companies are easily thwarting Russian efforts to leverage technology for their offense.

It begs the question – what should the world make of this absence of more advanced military technology from Russia’s armed forces?

The tempting interpretation is simply that Russia’s military is not as capable as the West previously thought. It’s also feasible that Ukrainian forces were better prepared to resist than expected, not only on the physical battlefield but in the digital space as well. Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, for example, reorganized and stood up an “IT Army” comprised of hundreds of thousands of IT professionals all aimed at countering Russian cyber maneuvers within days of fighting.

Whatever the reasons, Russia’s political and military leaders made a strategic choice, or error, thinking they could accomplish their near-term goals with limited conventional forces. Now, we see the effects of their recalibration as they turn to increasingly destructive strategies.

While this renewed offense has yet to incorporate more innovative technologies, there is still a possibility that the Kremlin will begin to leverage more advanced technologies in the future. Russia’s military already possess these capabilities, ranging from unmanned ground vehicles previously used in Syria to tactical and loitering UAVs which will arm Russian commanders with clearer battlefield situational awareness and hypersonic missiles. Of course, President Putin may also decide to launch more sophisticated cyberattacks with far-reaching implications.

With recent developments and these possibilities, the U.S. and its allies should prepare by expanding the kind of aid provided to Ukrainian defense forces.

In addition to counter UAV weapons, efforts should be made to help harden Ukraine’s command and control capabilities as well as civilian support infrastructure to ensure military and political leaders can continue to effectively coordinate defenses against Russian advances, even in the most austere environments.

The U.S. has an incredible defense innovation base of small tech companies able to provide dual-use commercial off-the shelf products quickly to those who need them. These non-traditional defense vendors possess market-proven, cutting edge technologies in everything from advanced cyber defenses and advanced materials manufacturing, to supportive supply-chain analysis, predictive maintenance and geospatial tech which could prove critical for food and ammunition distribution, aircraft and vehicle readiness, and battlefield intelligence and operations – all of which would be a force multiplier in backing the Ukraine’s forces.

While we haven’t seen Russia demonstrate particularly advanced technological capability in this conflict yet, it would be prudent for Ukraine, the U.S. and our allies to prepare as though more sophisticated attacks were possible and imminent. Innovation thrives in our defense industrial base and the U.S. private sector has been quick to respond to Ukraine’s call for assistance so far – the scale and sophistication of our own response could (and arguably should) increase as well to counter and get ahead of the effects of the increasingly brutal Russian aggression. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

14 Mar 22. Ukrainians hold advantage in defending Kyiv, but they remain vulnerable to Russian air strikes. Urban fighting will put the Russians on the back foot, prompting fears Vladimir Putin will pulverise Ukraine’s capital. Ukraine’s tactical nous has so far seen its forces, by and large, refuse to engage the sharpest of the Russian bear’s claws. Instead, they have bypassed the strongest elements, targeting logistic units towards the rear; the oil that keeps the whole machine working. We’ve seen it in the 40-mile convoy that sat for a week north of Kyiv, unable to advance for want of resupplies. That situation seems to have changed and the Russian assault on the capital looks set to begin. Park for one moment the idea that Russian troops advancing on the city will probably have to do so along obvious routes (as the logistics vehicles have proved useless off road) – a boon to Ukrainian artillery and drone units. Russia’s tactics historically – in Syria and Chechnya, and witnessed to a degree in Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol – are to pulverise urban areas with artillery and missiles before any ground assault moves in. Most of the world hopes that is not going to happen in Kyiv. And so does Russia, assuming they want to capture the symbolic city largely intact. But a concentrated ground attack could put Putin’s army at a significant disadvantage. This type of battle, with radio communications severely limited, routes channelled by streets and the Ukrainian defenders knowing the terrain much better that the attackers, would require much higher standards of training and leadership, especially among junior Russian soldiers. In urban combat it is imperative to halt armoured vehicles moving at will. Street blockades built of metal and concrete must be erected. Tank traps – ditches too deep and wide for tracked vehicles to negotiate – must be dug. If the defences are too flimsy or shallow, tanks and other armoured vehicles will just climb over them or shove them aside. Knowing the exact size and capabilities of the approaching enemy vehicles is therefore critical information for any defenders. Any defences must be covered by firing points, to destroy tanks snarled up by lengths of barbed wire around the tracks, or the engineering vehicles brought forward to clear obstacles. In this, Ukraine will have an advantage both in the numbers of troops defending every street and the sheer quantity of anti-tank weapons that have flowed into the country over the past weeks.

Some anti-tank weapons, such as the Anglo-Swedish NLAW – 3,615 of which Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last week had been sent to Ukraine – have minimal back-blasts on launch, to protect the soldier firing the weapon. It means every room in every building on every street could potentially harbour a defender. That will fix Russian minds, but may also mean they rely even more on destroying as much infrastructure as possible. Anti-tank weapons without “soft-launch” mechanisms are still extremely valuable in urban areas. Big open spaces in cities – perfect for “shoot-and-scoot” anti-tank missions – can still be found across parks and rivers or down long, wide streets. NLAW has a minimum range of 20 meters, making it very employable in built-up areas. A mix of ground troops hunting Russians with anti-tank weapons and Ukrainian tanks and other armoured vehicles will be required.

“The best anti-tank weapon in the world is another tank,” Ben Barry, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says.

Ukrainian defenders will seek to hide their own tanks up side streets, firing into the flanks of passing Russian columns whilst being protected by soldiers swarming over nearby buildings. Urban fighting is gritty, exhausting and confusing, but historically has favoured the defender.

Mr Barry reckons the required ratio of attackers to defenders in urban terrain could be as high as 9:1. Many observers have questioned if Russia has enough soldiers.

In a social media post on Telegram, Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin, 51, also known by the alias Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, a Russian army veteran and former FSB officer, said “the ratio of manpower has already become in favor [sic] of Kyiv [and] this advantage will only increase”.

Mr Girkin played a key role in the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and later the war in the Donbas region of Ukraine. He was appointed Defence Minister to the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.

In his Telegram post he said Russia’s early plans now seem “overly optimistic” and that without “partial mobilizations…the war cannot be won even in a few years”.

A Russian strategy of encirclement and bombardment means ground troops won’t need to be particularly competent, Mr Barry says. “They just have to be sufficiently competent to protect the artillery and rocket launchers.” Reports overnight of heavy fire on the outskirts of Kyiv could indicate Ukrainian efforts to repel Russian forces pushing west and south, to encircle the city. If Russia decides to stay outside the built-up areas and blast Kyiv with artillery, “the excellence of the Ukrainian army’s defence of urban areas would be a touch irrelevant,” Mr Barry says. Not being able to engage directly but having to suffer siege and aerial bombardment would be the “worst-case scenario” for Ukraine, he suggests. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Mar 22. Russia-Ukraine latest news: Moscow asked China for drones, say US officials.

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Russia has asked China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine, including the provision of drones, according to US officials.

Despite Beijing seeking to portray itself as an honest broker, Washington has been alarmed by the reports of Russia’s plea to China.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN that Washington was watching closely to see to what extent Beijing provided economic or material support to Russia, and would impose consequences if that occurred.

“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to back fill them,” he said.

CNN reported that US officials believed Russia had sought drones as well as economic assistance.

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said “I’ve never heard of that” when asked about the alleged requests. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Mar 22. Ukraine’s leader expressed tentative hope on Monday about a diplomatic push for a ceasefire even as Russian forces continued to shell his country’s cities overnight, leaving hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped in siege conditions. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said his representatives were discussing a possible meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in online talks with Moscow, as negotiators noted some positive movement in recent days. Diplomats remain sceptical about a breakthrough to end a war that has laid waste to Ukrainian cities, brought down devastating sanctions on Russia, and shaken world markets. But officials close to the talks reported tentative progress over the weekend, including on limited political issues relating to a potential settlement. (Source: FT.com)

12 Mar 22. Ukraine says Russian forces kill seven civilians in evacuation convoy.

Summary
Bulk of Russian ground forces outside Kyiv, says UK
Ukraine says humanitarian corridors threatened
EU to impose new sanctions on Russia

Ukraine accused Russian forces on Saturday of killing seven civilians in an attack on women and children trying to flee fighting near Kyiv, and France said Russian President Vladimir Putin had shown he was not ready to make peace.

The Ukrainian intelligence service said the seven, including one child, were killed as they fled the village of Peremoha and that “the occupiers forced the remnants of the column to turn back.”

Reuters was unable immediately to verify the report and Russia offered no immediate comment. Moscow denies targeting civilians since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 and blames Ukraine for failed attempts to evacuate civilians from encircled cities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier that Moscow was sending in new troops after Ukrainian forces put 31 of Russia’s battalion tactical groups out of action in what he called Russia’s largest army losses in decades. It was not possible to verify his statements.

He also said about 1,300 Ukrainian troops had been killed so far and urged the West to get more involved in peace negotiations. The president suggested Russian forces would face a fight to the death if they sought to enter the capital.

“If they decide to carpet bomb (Kyiv), and simply erase the history of this region … and destroy all of us, then they will enter Kyiv. If that’s their goal, let them come in, but they will have to live on this land by themselves,” he said.

Zelenskiy discussed the war with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron, and the German and French leaders then spoke to Putin by phone and urged the Russian leader to order an immediate ceasefire.

A Kremlin statement on the 75-minute call made no mention of a ceasefire and a French presidency official said: “We did not detect a willingness on Putin’s part to end the war”.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the United States of escalating tensions and said the situation had been complicated by convoys of Western arms shipments to Ukraine that Russian forces considered “legitimate targets”.

In comments reported by the Tass news agency, Ryabkov made no specific threat, but any attack on such convoys before they reached Ukraine would risk widening the war.

Responding to Zelenskiy’s call for the West to be more involved in peace negotiations, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said: “If there are diplomatic steps that we can take that the Ukrainian government believes would be helpful, we’re prepared to take them.”

Crisis talks between Moscow and Kyiv have been continuing via a video link, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by Russia’s RIA news agency. He gave no details but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv would not surrender or accept any ultimatums. read more

HUMANITARIAN CORRIDORS

Air raid sirens blared across most Ukrainian cities on Saturday morning, local media reported.

Russian rocket attacks destroyed a Ukrainian airbase and hit an ammunition depot near the town of Vasylkiv in the Kyiv region, Interfax Ukraine quoted its mayor as saying.

The exhausted-looking governor of Chernihiv, around 150 km (100 miles) northeast of Kyiv, gave a video update in front of the ruins of the city’s Ukraine Hotel, which he said had been hit.

“There is no such hotel any more,” Viacheslav Chaus said, wiping tears from his eyes. “But Ukraine itself still exists, and it will prevail.”

Britain’s defence ministry said fighting northwest of the capital continued, with the bulk of Russian ground forces 25 km (16 miles) from the centre of Kyiv, which it has said Russia could attack within days.

Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remained encircled under heavy Russian shelling, it said.

Russia’s invasion has been almost universally condemned around the world and that has drawn tough Western sanctions on Russia.

The Russian bombardment has trapped thousands of people in besieged cities and sent 2.5 million Ukrainians fleeing to neighbouring countries. Zelenskiy said the conflict meant some small Ukrainian towns no longer existed.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its neighbour’s military capabilities and “de-Nazify” the country.

Ukrainian officials had planned to use humanitarian corridors from Mariupol as well as towns and villages in the regions of Kyiv, Sumy and some other areas on Saturday.

The governor of the Kyiv region, Oleksiy Kuleba, said fighting and threats of Russian air attacks were continuing on Saturday morning though some evacuations were proceeding.

The Donetsk region’s governor said constant shelling was complicating bringing aid into the southern city of Mariupol.

“There are reports of looting and violent confrontations among civilians over what little basic supplies remain in the city,” the U.N.’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said.

“Medicines for life-threatening illnesses are quickly running out, hospitals are only partially functioning, and the food and water are in short supply.”

MAKESHIFT BURIALS

People were boiling ground water for drinking, using wood to cook food and burying dead bodies near where they lay, a staff member for Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) in Mariupol said.

“We saw people who died because of lack of medication,” he said, adding that many people had also been wounded or killed. “Neighbours just dig a hole in the ground and put the dead bodies inside.”

At least 1,582 civilians in Mariupol have been killed as a result of Russian shelling and a 12-day blockade, the city council said on Friday. It was not possible to verify casualty figures. Efforts to isolate Russia economically have stepped up, with the United States imposing new sanctions on senior Kremlin officials and Russian oligarchs on Friday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would on Saturday suspend Moscow’s privileged trade and economic treatment, crack down on its use of crypto-assets, and ban the import of iron and steel goods from Russia, as well as the export of luxury goods in the other direction. (Source: Reuters)

12 Mar 22. Russia has warned that it will fire on western armaments shipments to Kyiv, raising the risk of a direct military confrontation between Moscow and Nato during the war in Ukraine. Deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Saturday that “pumping up [Ukraine] with weapons from a whole range of countries” was “not just a dangerous move — it’s something that turns these convoys into legitimate military targets”, according to the Interfax news agency. US president Joe Biden has rejected calls from Kyiv to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine and said Nato will not be drawn into an all-out conflict with Russia or send troops to defend the country. However, Ukraine’s western backers have pledged significant military aid to the country. The US has promised $6.5bn in defence spending, the UK has sent 3,615 NLAW anti-tank missiles and Javelin anti-tank weapons while Nordic states have sent more than 10,000 anti-tank weapons. (Source: FT.com)

11 Mar 22. Pentagon revives team to speed arms to Ukraine and allies, sources say. The Pentagon is turning to a special team to respond to increased demand for new weapons sales and requests to transfer existing weapons among U.S. allies as countries including Ukraine scramble to obtain arms following Russia’s invasion, three people familiar with the effort said.

The Pentagon’s office of Acquisition and Sustainment, the weapons buyer for the U.S. Department of Defense, has been fielding increased demand from European allies hoping to ship weapons to Ukraine through third party transfers or to buy arms to bolster their own defenses, the sources said.

The rapid response team was revived in recent days to coordinate and cut through the bureaucracy around sales and transfers while prioritizing requests from allies, the sources said.

The previously unreported effort comes as the Pentagon works to respond to a rapidly changing landscape for arms deals and transfers. The Pentagon made use of the rapid response team during the Trump administration.

“As part of Department of Defense’s ongoing supply chain resilience efforts, the Department is evaluating industrial base capacity to produce items critical to our national security and that of our allies and partners. This effort is focused on identifying key supply chain constraints and mitigation actions to improve capacity,” a defense official said.

The operation is being run in cooperation with the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees weapons sales and transfers to other countries for the Department of Defense.

According to an email seen by Reuters, DSCA recently asked the defense industry for devices that can be used to disable or shoot down drones that were either in stock or could be ready for delivery in 120 days.

“In light of the ongoing crisis in Europe, the USG (U.S. government) continues its efforts to identify effective solutions which would assist Ukraine in the ongoing situation. One of our focus areas is C-sUAS,” the message said. Counter small unmanned aerial systems (C-sUAS) technology is used to defeat drones.

Counter-drone devices come in a variety of sizes, prices and formats including the portable radar gun-like Dronekiller made by IXI Electronic Warfare and the Dronebuster from Radio Hill Technologies that can cost in the tens of thousands of dollars each. There are also larger versions of the technology including one that could shield an area the size of a stadium made by SRC Inc. The larger systems can cost in the $3 million to $6 million range, industry executives have said.

The Pentagon has stressed that smaller systems such as Javelin anti-tank systems and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which allies are shipping to Ukraine via truck near-daily, are most useful.

“We believe the best way to support Ukrainian defense is by providing them the weapons and the systems they need most to defeat Russian aggression, in particular anti-armor and air defense,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has said.

In some cases allies are trying to leverage the Ukraine situation to “press for things they wanted even before the conflict,” one U.S. official said on condition of anonymity, adding that supply chains are still stressed from the pandemic so there was uncertainty about how this demand could be immediately met. Countries in Europe – and across the globe – are looking at expanding defense budgets to meet an increasingly uncertain security outlook, with Germany among those promising a sharp increase in spending. (Source: Reuters)

12 Mar 22. Ukraine at ‘turning point’, Zelenskiy says as Russians regroup near Kyiv.

Summary
U.S. sanctions hit top Kremlin staff, oligarchs
EU imposes new sanctions on Russia
Satellite images show Russians redeploying north of Kyiv
Civilians huddle underground as Russia bombards cities

Ukraine was at a turning point in the war with Russian forces appearing to be regroup for a possible assault on Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, as the United States imposed new sanctions on senior Kremlin officials and Russian oligarchs.

With the Russian assault in its third week, Zelenskiy, who has rallied his people with a series of addresses from the capital Kyiv, said Ukraine had “already reached a strategic turning point”.

“It is impossible to say how many days we still have (ahead of us) to free Ukrainian land. But we can say we will do it,” he said. “We are already moving towards our goal, our victory.”

The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg, three family members of President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson and lawmakers in the latest punishment for Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. read more

“Treasury continues to hold Russian officials to account for enabling Putin’s unjustified and unprovoked war,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.

Russian forces kept up their bombardment of cities across the country on Friday in the biggest assault on a European country since World War Two. Satellite images showed them firing artillery as they advanced on Kyiv.

The fighting has created more than 2 million refugees, and thousands of Ukrainians are trapped in besieged cities.

As hundreds sheltered in Kharkiv metro stations, Nastya, a young girl lying on a makeshift bed on the floor of a train carriage, said she had been there for over a week, unable to move around much and ill with a virus.

“I’m scared for my home, for the homes of my friends, very scared for the whole country, and scared for myself of course,” she said. read more

Putin calls the invasion a “special operation” to disarm Ukraine and unseat leaders it calls neo-Nazis. Ukraine and Western allies call this a baseless pretext for a war of choice that has raised fears of wider conflict in Europe.

PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL

The governor of the Kharkiv region on the Russian border, said a psychiatric hospital had been hit, and the mayor of the city of Kharkiv said about 50 schools there had been destroyed.

In the besieged southern city of Mariupol, the city council said at least 1,582 civilians had been killed by Russian shelling and a 12-day blockade that has left hundreds of thousands trapped with no food, water, heat or power.

Moscow denies targeting civilians.

Russia’s defence ministry said the Black Sea port was surrounded, while Ukrainian officials accused Russia of deliberately preventing civilians getting out and humanitarian convoys getting in.

A new effort to evacuate civilians along a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol appeared to have failed, as Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Russian shelling prevented them from leaving.

“The situation is critical,” Ukrainian interior ministry adviser Vadym Denysenko said.

Western countries meanwhile took more economic steps to try to force Putin to end his assault.

President Joe Biden, who this week banned U.S. imports of Russian oil, said the G7 industrial powers would revoke Russia’s “most favoured nation” trade status.

Biden banned U.S. imports of Russian seafood, alcohol and diamonds. Washington sanctioned more oligarchs and elites, including board members of Russian banks, and a dozen lawmakers.

European Union leaders said they were ready to impose harsher sanctions on Russia and might give Ukraine more funds for arms. But they rejected Ukraine’s request to join the bloc.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU would on Saturday suspend Moscow’s privileged trade and economic treatment, crack down on its use of crypto-assets, and ban the import of iron and steel goods from Russia, as well as the export of luxury goods in the other direction. read more

GEARING UP

Russia’s main force has been stalled north of Kyiv, having failed in what Western analysts say was an initial plan for a lightning assault.

But Britain’s defence ministry said Russia appeared to be gearing up for a new offensive in coming days that would probably include Kyiv.

Images taken on Friday and released by private U.S. satellite firm Maxar showed Russian forces were continuing to deploy closer to Kyiv and firing artillery toward residential areas, according to the company’s analysis.

Multiple homes and buildings were on fire and widespread damage was seen throughout the town of Moschun, northwest of Kyiv, Maxar said. Reuters could not independently verify the images.

But Britain’s intelligence update said Russian ground forces were still making only limited progress, hampered by logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance.

The Ukrainian general staff said Russian forces were regrouping after taking heavy losses. Ukrainian troops had pushed some back to “unfavourable positions” near the Belarus border, it said.

Kyiv’s mayor, former heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, said the capital had enough essential supplies to last a couple of weeks. Supply lines remained open.

BELARUS

At a meeting with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin said there were “certain positive shifts” in talks with Kyiv, but did not elaborate.

Ukraine has raised the prospect of Moscow’s ally Belarus entering the war, accusing Russia of staging “false flag” air attacks on Belarus from Ukraine to provide an excuse.

Belarus has served as a staging post for Russian forces before and after the invasion. The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.

Putin and Lukashenko agreed Moscow would supply its smaller neighbour with up-to-date military equipment, the official Belarus Belta news agency said.

Moscow might not have sufficient troops to achieve its goals, said Mathieu Boulegue, an expert at London’s Chatham House think tank.

“You can’t invade a country on a one-on-one ratio” of troops, Boulegue told Reuters. “Nobody has done it, which means that either something was wrong or they had very wrong assumptions.” (Source: Reuters)

11 Mar 22. ‘Risk worth taking’: U.S. rushes MANPADS to Ukraine despite proliferation concerns. The United States and NATO are shipping weapons into Ukraine at break-neck speed, including highly sensitive items such as shoulder-fired missiles called Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS) that can take down aircraft.

The Western arms deliveries, another one of which is expected to arrive in the coming hours, have been vital to enabling Ukrainians to fight the invading Russians forces far more effectively and fiercely than U.S. intelligence expected.

But moving those amounts of weaponry into the largest conflict in Europe since World War Two carries with it risks that some could fall into the wrong hands — a possibility the West has considered.

“Frankly, we believe that risk is worth taking right now because the Ukrainians are fighting so skillfully with the tools at their disposal and they’re using them so creatively,” a senior U.S. defense official said on Friday when asked about that danger.

Highly portable missiles such as Stinger surface-to-air missiles — which are a type of MANPAD — can help win wars, but in the past they have also been lost, sold, or wound up in the arsenals of extremist groups.

For example, hundreds of Stingers supplied by the United States were seen as key to helping mujahideen rebels drive Soviet forces out of Afghanistan in a conflict that spanned the 1980s and 1990s.

But the United States subsequently spent years trying to recover unused MANPADS from that country and from other conflict zones around the world.

In a Pentagon-financed study in 2019, the RAND Corp. think-tank estimated that upwards of 60 civilian aircraft have been hit by MANPADS since the 1970s, killing more than 1,000 civilians. As of 2019, 57 non-state armed groups were confirmed to possess or suspected to possess MANPADS.

Russia was “far and away the single largest exporter of MANPADS”, RAND Corp. said, with more than 10,000 systems sold between 2010 and 2018 to countries including Iraq, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Qatar, and Libya.

The United States and NATO have not disclosed how many MANPADS have been transferred to Ukraine since the start of the invasion, which is now in its third week.

So far, Russia has not targeted Western weapons convoys headed into Ukraine and the senior U.S. defense official said the United States had not seen any Western-supplied inventory falling into Russian hands.

But that could change.

At a Friday meeting of Russia’s Security Council, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu talked about potential future seizures of Western-made Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stingers. They should be handed to Russian-backed forces in the breakaway Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly backed the idea.

“As to the delivery of arms, especially Western-made ones which have fallen into the hands of the Russian army – of course I support the possibility of giving these to the military units of the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics,” Putin said.

“Please do this,” Putin told Shoigu. (Source: NewsnNow/Reuters)

11 Mar 22. Ukrainians United in Resisting Russian Invasion. The Ukrainian fight against Russia’s invasion of their country is truly a national effort, Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby said today. The free world has been amazed at Ukrainian resistance to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “war of choice.” Ukrainian armed forces have demonstrated great tactical proficiency in confronting the much larger foe.

“They’re fighting skillfully, bravely, quite creatively,” Kirby said. “And the fighting isn’t just by the armed forces.”

He said that average citizens — outraged by the Russian attack — received weapons from the government and learned to use them.

It’s unclear if areas of Ukraine now occupied by the Russian military are seeing some guerilla warfare emerge, but there are videos of Ukrainians confronting Russian tanks.

“Some of the resistance has been non-violent — with crowds of Ukrainians blocking city streets and actually stopping in their tracks some Russian units,” Kirby said. “So, the resistance resides on many levels, and it’s quite inspiring. … They are resisting; they are defending, and we are going to continue to look for ways to help them do that better going forward.”

Responding to a question about whether the Russians are treating captured Ukrainian service members as prisoners of war, Kirby said he didn’t have information on how captured Ukrainians or captured Russians are being treated. “But our expectation would be that that both parties would abide by Geneva Convention requirements and treat any soldiers that are captured humanely and in accordance with the rule of ,” he said. “That would be, that would be the United States’ expectation, as well as so many other nations.” (Source: US DoD)

11 Mar 22. Jeremy Hunt calls for massive boost in UK defence spending. Writing for The Telegraph, former foreign secretary says peace comes from strength, not luck, as Russian invaders close in on Kyiv. Britain should increase defence spending to the same level as the US, Jeremy Hunt has proposed, as he declared: “Peace comes from strength, not luck.”

Writing for The Telegraph, the former foreign secretary called the invasion of Ukraine “the biggest failure of Western foreign and security policy in our lifetimes”.

“It happened because we forgot the most fundamental lesson of the Cold War: the power of deterrence,” he said.

By “announcing they would not intervene” if Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK and US undercut their attempted deterrence, he argued.

“Instead of peace through strength we caused war through weakness,” he wrote.

Mr Hunt called for a step-change in UK defence spending and referenced Donald Trump’s past criticism of Nato spending – saying the former US president “was very vocal on that point when I was foreign secretary”.

The Conservative MP added: “He was only saying more robustly what numerous presidents had said before. If we want America to remain the leader of the free world, other democratic powers, especially in Europe, must commit to matching US defence spending as a proportion of GDP.”

For Britain to hit that target would mean a huge defence spending increase.

The UK spent 2.3 per cent of GDP on defence in 2021, according to Nato figures, compared to the 3.5 per cent by the US.

Given that the UK currently spends more than £40 billion a year on defence, achieving that goal would mean spending tens of billions pounds more on the military over the coming years.

The call will pile pressure on Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, to approve an increase in the defence budget when he delivers his Spring Statement later this month.

The Telegraph understands that Mr Sunak is holding firm against calls for a rise – arguing that just two years ago, the UK announced the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War.

But the Ministry of Defence continues to push behind the scenes for more money, with the row expected to intensify next week before a final decision is made.

One senior Whitehall source rejected Treasury arguments, saying that “Putin had not invaded a European country” at that point.

Yet there were questions on Friday about whether it was realistic for the UK to reach the US defence spending target in the coming years.

Prof Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, said: “An increase in taxes beyond what the Chancellor has already promised would be needed for a substantial rise in defence spending.”

A source close to Mr Hunt, traditionally seen as a Tory on the moderate wing of the party and not as a hawk, said he accepted it would take time to make the change.

Mr Hunt also called for Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister – who beat him in the 2019 Conservative leadership contest – to abandon planned military cuts.

He asked: “Can it be right to reduce our troop levels by 10,000 from the numbers planned in 2015? Or cut our Challenger tanks by a third?”

Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, is also pressing the Government to go further, calling for the cut of 10,000 soldiers to be halted.

Sir Keir told The Telegraph: “With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats of further aggression to Nato members, we need to reassess our military capabilities.”

There are also calls from within the Cabinet. Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, has repeatedly said this week that the West did not spend enough on defence in recent decades. She indicated that she backed more money going to the military.

Mr Hunt also called for a new target of four per cent of GDP for defence spending combined with foreign aid spending and “soft power” over the next decade. Currently, aid spending is 0.5 per cent of GDP. A definition of “soft power” spending is not given, but appears to refer to Foreign Office work.

The Westminster tussle comes as Russian troops close in on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital city, amid fears of renewed siege tactics in the war’s third week.

Explosions in the western cities of Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk suggested the Russians could be expanding the area of battle. Most of the fighting has been in the centre and east of the country to date.

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has also warned there could be famines in Africa as the conflict drags on.

Ukraine’s biggest food producers have said that wheat production could grind to a complete halt because of the war, with planting due to happen in three weeks. That would deprive the world of a fifth of its total supply.

In response, British farmers have pleaded for an overhaul of red tape to increase productivity.

G7 agriculture ministers also held a meeting to discuss the crisis. A statement released by the G7 made clear that the West intends to cut off luxury product exports to Russia, further tightening the financial clamp on the country. Details are yet to be announced.

Mr Sunak is also facing pressure over taxes on another front – his determination to go ahead with the National Insurance rise, which kicks in next month.

In an interview on BBC Radio Four’s The Week in Westminster, Lord Frost – the former Brexit minister – made a renewed call for tax rises to be abandoned.

Lord Frost said he would like to see Mr Sunak “deferring and maybe even cancelling the tax rises, deferring the corporation tax rises that are going to come in and doing everything we can to free up the economy from the burden of regulation and concentrating on growth”.

But Treasury and Number 10 sources ruled out any change on National Insurance, saying the increase would go ahead as planned. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Mar 22.How Putin could be removed from power – and who would replace him. It’s hard to envisage the Russian president stepping down, but a coup from within the corridors of the Kremlin may force the issue.

ByMark Galeotti11 March 2022 • 2:40pm

Sergei Shoigu, Mikhail Mishustin and Dmitry Medvedev are among those with the potential to succeed Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin is in for the fight of his life. His brutal and ill-conceived war in Ukraine, a personal crusade he has foisted on his country, has left his army mired abroad and an economy reeling under unprecedented Western sanctions at home. For 22 years he was the one constant of Russian politics, but no wonder people are thinking much more sharply not only about a Russia after Putin, but how that may be brought about.

After all, who would have thought that a country so deeply embedded in the global economic system could so quickly be disconnected from so much of it? That a country with notionally more than half a trillion pounds in its foreign reserves would be debating emergency price regulation for medicines, basic foods and baby products. That a military machine in which Putin has invested so much for so long could stumble and fall as soon as it steps into neighbouring Ukraine.

Indeed, on Monday, Putin, the man who four days before had vowed to destroy “this ‘Anti-Russia’ created by the West”, signalled that he was willing to cut his losses. The terms he offered Kyiv were still unrealistic and unacceptable, but having previously indicated that he wanted to take the whole country – to, as he put it, “denazify” it – now he is only seeking Crimea and the south-eastern Donbas region. Of course, at the same time he is escalating the brutality of the onslaught, hoping to negotiate from a position of strength, having taken more cities. However, it reflects the way that even this most out-of-touch of leaders is aware that this debacle threatens him and his regime.

In a system which has become so personalised and authoritarian, though, the usual mechanisms for the transfer of power do not apply. It may therefore be more out of hope than anything else that there are those in Russia and beyond wondering if mortality will do the job.

Rumours are multiplying. Might his strange terror of infection – never mind those comically long tables, Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro apparently had to take five Covid tests to be able to shake his hand – be a sign he is suffering from a disease weakening his immune system? Footage of a trembling hand might indicate Parkinson’s. The puffiness of his face could be a sign of steroid treatment. Illness or a sense of impending mortality might help explain his splenetic new moods, and why a leader who in the past was much more cautious than his macho persona would suggest, now seems to be an angry old man in a hurry.

The changes in Vladimir Putin’s face have prompted speculation that he might have a serious illness

Barring any such deus ex machina, it is hard to see him standing down voluntarily. He periodically toyed with handing the presidency to a successor, perhaps retaining some “father of the nation” role. However, in a system where politics trumps law, that means putting yourself at another’s mercy, and Putin is not a man who trusts easily at the best of times. Besides, he is clearly obsessed with his place in history – he could only step down on a high, and it is hard to see any triumphs in his future.

In theory, Putin could be removed through the constitution. Article 93 allows for impeachment on the basis of serious crimes. Yet that requires not only a two-thirds vote in both chambers of parliament, but also the consent of the Constitutional and Supreme Courts. All have been packed with loyalists, and even if these opportunists thought that they were being led to destruction, it is almost impossible to see any kind of conspiracy being organised without it coming to the Kremlin’s attention.

After all, not only is the much-feared Federal Security Service (FSB) tasked with watching the elite, but so too is the more secretive Federal Protection Service (FSO). Better known for the colourfully-uniformed Kremlin guards and Putin’s black-suited and earpiece-wearing personal security detail, every morning the FSO submits to the president a dossier on what is going on within the elite, based on agents, informants and phone taps. It must make for interesting reading, these days.

The most extreme option some in the West are openly discussing is the prospect of outright assassination. This is highly unlikely, not least because the security precautions around “the Body”, as Putin is known by his security detail, are massive, complex and comprehensive to the point of paranoia. He rarely travels much these days anyway, except between his palaces and the Kremlin, and then in the presidential aircraft or an armoured Aurus Kortezh limo escorted by a huge motorcade with motorcycle outriders, vans full of heavily-armed FSO officers, an ambulance and an electronic warfare vehicle to jam any bomb detonators along the route and divert drones. Like a medieval monarch, he retains a food taster, and even the air in his palaces is constantly monitored for pathogens and poisons.

Tsar Nicholas II was infamously murdered by the Bolsheviks, but only after they had seized him and his family. The last Russian ruler who fell to an assassin was Tsar Alexander II, over 140 years ago and the FSO has no intention of letting any re-runs happen on their watch.

Where precision is impossible, what about brute force? It is a mark of the times that rumours – seemingly wholly fanciful – have been circulating that defence minister Sergei Shoigu is under suspicion of planning a coup. Certainly the only institutions which would seem able to oust Putin in a coup would be either the security agencies or, more plausibly, the army.

The military have two elite divisions outside Moscow, the 4th Guards “Kantemirovskaya” Tank Division and the 2nd Guards “Tamanskaya” Mechanised Division, as well as two Spetsnaz special forces units close by. However, not only are they carefully watched by the FSB’s military counter-intelligence department, one of whose primary roles is to sniff out potential disloyalty, but they also face a series of other units in Moscow. The National Guard, a parallel internal security army under former Putin bodyguard and arch-loyalist Viktor Zolotov has the oversized 1st Independent Special Designation Division based in the east of the city. They have their own tanks, artillery and anti-tank missiles, making it pretty clear that their role is, if necessary, to take on the military.

Meanwhile, if that were not enough, the FSO’s Kremlin Regiment may be better known for the ramrod-stiff soldiers standing watch over the Eternal Flame just outside the fortress’s walls, but in crisis would exchange their pretty red-and-blue uniforms and ceremonial bolt-action rifles for camouflage and AK-74 assault rifles. There are 5,500 of them, hand-picked for their loyalty as much as their martial skills. In short, any attempt by the military alone to seize power and topple Putin could be a dangerous and messy venture, potentially leading to open warfare in Moscow’s streets.

If mortality, muscle or machination do see Putin leave power, though, who might succeed him? It would probably be a technocrat, a strongman or a proxy.

The constitution says that the prime minister steps in first as interim president before elections are held. Current incumbent Mikhail Mishustin is a former head of the Federal Tax Service. He has been in office since January 2020, and so his tenure has been under the shadow of Covid. Nonetheless, unlike his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, he has already managed to create the image of the no-nonsense and hard-headed manager. He also has just enough of a personal life to give the spin doctors something to craft a narrative around him. He plays ice hockey and the piano and has even written songs for Grigory Leps, a gravelly-voiced pop star sanctioned by the US government for alleged mafia connections.

The 56-year-old Mishustin could be the obvious choice for a technocratic successor, but he has not yet been at the centre of power long enough to build himself a network of clients and allies. Other figures such as Moscow’s well-regarded mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, might also be in with a chance. More to the point, it would be hard to see a managerial candidate actually being able to bring down Putin. Their chance would only come if someone or something else opened the door for them.

Someone like defence minister Shoigu might actually be able to kick that door open for himself. He is not by background a military man. He was a civil engineer who then became the emergencies minister in the 1990s, a job which for many would have been the kiss of death, making him responsible for every natural or man-made disaster in that unruly decade. Yet he made a virtue of necessity and his willingness to roll up his sleeves and get involved in anything, from comforting relatives to digging through rubble, actually made him a national figure.

Shoigu also made the emergencies ministry, originally a dysfunctional a collection of agencies, one of the most efficient, trusted and even honest government departments in Russia. Appointed to head a divided and disgruntled defence ministry in 2012, Shoigu again was able to push forward reform and win the loyalty of soldiers and generals alike. This is, after all, a man with a unique political touch. Not only is he the only figure to make his way into Putin’s inner circle without having been a long-term friend from the KGB or Putin’s time in St Petersburg, he has also managed to rise within the carnivorous world of Russian politics without apparently making blood enemies on the way.

Shoigu might be the kind of savvy strongman at once able to wield the muscle to topple Putin and also the political skills to reassure the rest of the elite. Other key figures within the security apparatus, such as FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov or National Guard commander Zolotov, are too closely linked to Putin and too mistrusted to be credible candidates.

For all his current role in the Ukraine war, Shoigu appears to be a pragmatic kind of nationalist. Pervasive rumours suggest he was the only member of Putin’s inner circle not to support the annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, if experience of other coups is anything to go by, it is often the case that the initiator does not get to enjoy power long term. It may be that the 66-year-old Shoigu would simply be a transitional figure, who sweeps away the worst of Putinism, and sets the scene for the next generation of leaders.

In theory, that could include the 56-year-old Medvedev, the only modern Russian politician to have been both prime minister and president. He was only president as Putin’s front man and chair-warmer, though, for the period 2008-12, while his boss governed from the prime minister’s office as a way to get round term limits.

He does not strike an impressive figure, though. Of late, Medvedev, who holds an honorific but essentially meaningless position as deputy chairman of the Security Council, has been trying to reinvent himself as a hawk, taking extreme positions on everything from the death penalty to seizing the assets of companies leaving Russia. Nonetheless, he is now something of a laughing stock. In 2016, opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s followers starting using yellow rubber ducks as a light-hearted symbol of protest after he revealed that Medvedev’s “summer house” was actually a sumptuously-renovated 18th-century palace with an extravagant duck house on a lake.

Medvedev could conceivably be president again, but only as a proxy, if a collection of powerful figures – none powerful enough to seize the presidency for themselves – want a front man they do not have to fear.

In any case, whoever succeeds Putin is likely to have to be a different and even transitional figure, shaped not just by the hard times facing Russia but also the rising political generation. Putin is 69, and most of his close allies are the same age or older. They are in many ways the last of the true Soviet elite.

Beneath them, increasingly impatient at an older generation that still seems intent on replaying the Cold War, and squandering their future in the process, is a rather different cohort of officials and businesspeople in their 50s and early 60s. They are by no means democrats, and can be every bit as hard-nosed as their seniors. However, in my experience at least, they lack the venomous and vindictive passion for Russia’s struggle with the West evident in Putin and people like his Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the FSB’s Bortnikov, both 70 years old.

This younger generation is made up of, to be blunt, pragmatic kleptocrats. They hanker after the good old days of the 2000s, when they were free to embezzle at home on an industrial scale, yet spend and bank that money in the West without fear of sanctions, asset freezes and Swift bans. They may not dare to turn against Putin now, as their fortunes and freedom are in his hands, but they are unlikely to want to continue his crusade against the West if they can possibly avoid it.

All of which is why the West must be careful and clever. With our screens darkened with terrible images of a maternity hospital shelled and Mariupol being starved into submission, it is only human that people have begun suggesting that something ought to be done to try to topple Putin’s regime or even remove him. This is understandable – but inadvisable.

Directly targeting Putin and failing would set a dangerous precedent and trigger retaliation. How would our MPs and senior civil servants enjoy having to check their door handles for Novichok every time they got home? Even a successful assassination would likely anger Russians from across the political spectrum and make it harder for a successor to roll back his aggressive policies and improve relations with the West.

For moment, then, it looks as if both we and the Russians are stuck with Putin. But in war, things can change quickly.

The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5 was meant to be a “nice, victorious little war” in the words of interior minister Vyacheslav von Plehve, to demonstrate Russia’s strength to the world and restore public morale. As it was, a dismal and embarrassing defeat sparked the unsuccessful 1905 revolution. Likewise, the economic crisis and horrifying losses Russia endured in the First World War led to growing unrest that drove the elite to force the tsar to abdicate. The Soviet war in Afghanistan of 1979-89, a war the Kremlin at first tried to pretend wasn’t even happening, didn’t bring down the regime but did become a metaphor for all the other things wrong with an economically-stagnant, mismanaged and corrupt regime.

Already, critical voices are even being heard on TV programmes that usually deliver nothing less than undiluted state propaganda. Guests on the primetime show hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, sanctioned for his role as a Kremlin mouthpiece, drew direct comparisons with Afghanistan and warned that public opinion could quickly change. Meanwhile, on the army’s own TV channel, Zvezda, a serving officer, pushed home the scale of casualties. In both cases, the naysayers were shouted down – the Zvezda presenter insisted that “our guys are smashing the fascist snakes” – but it is unprecedented for such views to be aired on state television, and a sign of the growing mood of dissatisfaction.

History is no map of the future, but it does remind us of how war can change everything. It may seem almost inconceivable that Putin’s reign could end any day soon, but now he has made an all-out gamble on war in Ukraine, all bets are off. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

12 Mar 22. Ukraine army hails Turkish drones but Ankara plays down weapons sales. Turkey is trying to carve out role as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 costs about $5mn and has been battle-tested around the world. Turkish-made armed Bayraktar drones with the Ukrainian army that the weapons are celebrated in a song. “We took offence at these orcs. Russian bandits are made into ghosts by Bayraktar,” go the words to the tune posted on the land forces’ Facebook page. The Ukrainian foreign ministry posted on Twitter an image of a police dog named Bayraktar, and a lemur born in the Kyiv zoo has also been named after the drones that have taken out Russian tanks and missile systems in recent days. The glowing Ukrainian tributes contrast with Turkey’s efforts to play down the sale of the weapons to Kyiv, fearful of stirring Russian ire as it tries to carve out a role as a mediator in the conflict. It hosted the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers on March 10 for the highest-level diplomatic meeting between the two nations since the war began on February 24. While other Nato members are supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and missiles to help it withstand Russia’s attack, Turkey has depicted the sale of the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from a company co-founded by the son-in-law of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as just another commercial transaction. “This is not aid from Turkey. It is a product purchased by Ukraine from a company in Turkey,” Yavuz Selim Kiran, the deputy foreign minister, told the Daily Sabah newspaper this month, even as he praised the “game-changing” drones. “The fact that it has become one of the Ukrainian military’s main deterrent elements actually shows the success and quality of the products produced by our company,” he said. “Everyone is waiting in line to buy the UAVs.” Turkey’s caution reflects the complex alliance that Erdogan has crafted with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Ankara has bought advanced Russian missiles, outraging Turkey’s Nato allies, but it has backed opposite sides in Libya and Syria. Erdogan has condemned the invasion of Ukraine but opposes sanctions against Russia, upon which Turkey relies for tourism, wheat and most of its energy imports. He has also deepened defence co-operation with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. The leaders agreed last month to jointly produce a new generation of the drones, expanding on a 2019 deal for at least 20 UAVs from Istanbul-based defence company Baykar. (Source: FT.com)

12 Mar 22. Joe Biden warns of ‘World War III’ if Nato pitched into conflict with Russia. US president personally vetoes plan to send fighter jets from Poland, reportedly fearing it could escalate tensions with Vladimir Putin. Joe Biden has issued a stark warning that direct conflict between Russia and Nato would be “World War Three”, as it emerged he personally vetoed a plan to send fighter jets from Poland to the Ukrainian air force. Earlier this week, Poland publicly announced it was offering its 28 MiG-29s to the US. It would send them to the US air base at Ramstein, Germany, so they could then be transferred to Ukraine. But the US president dismissed the possibility, fearing it could lead to a direct conflict.

He said: “We will defend every single inch of Nato territory with the full might of a united and galvanised Nato.”

But he added: “We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Direct confrontation between Nato and Russia is World War Three, something we must strive to prevent.”

He said Nato was “one movement”, which is why he had moved thousands of US troops along the borders with Russia.

“Because they move once, granted, if we respond, it is World War Three,” Mr Biden said.

“But we have a sacred obligation on Nato territory, a sacred obligation, Article Five … although we will not fight the Third World War in Ukraine.

“The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment, and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews – just understand. Don’t kid yourself. No matter what you all say, that’s called World War III. Okay? Let’s get it straight here guys.”

It emerged that Mr Biden took the decision after advice from officials at the Pentagon and US intelligence chiefs, who believed Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, would view it as “escalatory”.

Mr Biden was also advised by senior military officials that the planes would not significantly increase the effectiveness of the Ukrainian air force.

While the debate over the proposal was under way in Washington, Russia’s 40-mile convoy north of Kyiv was beginning to disperse around the city ahead of what is expected to be a fierce siege. Any opportunity to seriously strike the Russian sitting target has now been missed.

A senior US defence official said Ukraine had about 56 planes remaining, more than 80 per cent of its starting capability – but was only flying five to 10 sorties a day.

The official said: “The Ukrainians have been very creative in how they’re using the air power available to them. They have made effective use of drones, which are cheap, and they’re trained on them.

“They can fly below radar coverage and they’re using them with terrific effect, particularly against Russian ground movements.”

Claiming the Ukrainians “haven’t proven they need to do more than they’re doing”, the official said: “They’ve been very effective with the tools they have.”

However, Tom Cotton, a Republican who sits on the Senate intelligence committee, accused Mr Biden of “timid, hesitating half-measures”.

Sending planes had widespread support among Republicans and Democrats, after Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, pleaded for them to boost his air force.

Some 40 of the 50 Republicans in the US Senate signed a letter calling on Mr Biden to reverse his decision on the Polish so-called “rent-a-MiG” scheme, accusing him of backing down “every time Vladimir Putin says ‘boo'”.

Mr Cotton said: “There is no intelligence that these aircraft, somehow uniquely, are going to be escalatory in Vladimir Putin’s eyes.

“This is only the policy decision of the president and it is a ridiculous decision, and it makes the United States look ridiculous.

“It is yet another instance in which Joe Biden has allowed Vladimir Putin to back him down by saying ‘boo’.

“If we continue to blink every time Vladimir Putin says ‘boo’ it’s not going to stop in Ukraine, it’s not going to stop in Europe.”

Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was on Friday making phone calls to Republican senators to explain the military advice given to the president, and his subsequent decision.

But Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, said: “This administration has been a step behind every step of the way. The Ukrainians need airplanes, they need equipment to fight with. They need this assistance and they need it right now.”

‘World is united’ against Vladimir Putin

Mr Biden added: “We will make sure Ukraine has weapons to defend against an invading Russian force. We will send money and food and aid to save the Ukrainian people.

“I will welcome Ukrainian refugees. We should welcome them here with open arms.

“We already know Putin’s war in Ukraine will never be a victory. He hoped to dominate Ukraine without a fight, he failed. He hoped to fracture European resolve, he failed. He hoped to weaken the transatlantic alliance, he failed. He hoped to split apart American democracy, he failed.

“The American people are united, the world is united. We will not let autocrats and would-be emperors dictate the direction of the world.

“We’re going to hit Putin harder. The totality of our sanctions and export controls is crushing the Russian economy.”

John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said the Russians were beginning to gain some momentum in Ukraine.

He said: “There’s Russian bombardment and shelling going on quite violently as we speak.

“And we do assess that the Russians are beginning to make more momentum on the ground towards Kyiv, particularly from the east. Not quite so much from the north.”

On Friday night, the US put sanctions on two Russian individuals and three institutions over their support for North Korea’s weapons programme.

The sanctions target “a network of Russia-based individuals and entities complicit in helping [North Korea] procure components for its unlawful ballistic missile systems,” Brian Nelson, the Treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

11 Mar 22. Congress passes budget with defense boost, $13.6bn in Ukraine aid. Senate lawmakers finalized a $1.5trn spending bill late Thursday that provides $13.6bn in new aid for Ukraine and funding stability for the Defense Department for the rest of the fiscal year. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the measure into law Friday. Without the budget deal, government agencies would have faced partial shutdowns starting Saturday morning because of a lapse in available funding. In a statement Thursday night, White House press secretary Jen Psaki praised the bipartisan deal as allowing federal officials to “advance American leadership abroad” and “deliver historic support for the Ukrainian people as they defend their country and democracy.” She also noted the full-year budget agreement “ends a damaging series of short-term continuing resolutions that have undermined the government’s ability to meet pressing challenges.” The budget deal includes $728.5 bn in discretionary funding for the Department of Defense for fiscal 2022 (which began in October). That’s an increase of nearly 5% over fiscal 2021 defense spending levels.

Rep. Betty McCollum, chairwoman of the House Appropriations Committee’s defense panel, in a statement praised the final spending deal as “absolutely necessary to meet the needs of the American people and confront unprecedented global challenges.”

The package passed both the House and Senate this week with significant bipartisan backing.

Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., said the military funding level — well above what the White House requested in its budget — will help maintain military investments and “keep us from falling even further behind China” and other adversaries. Since the new fiscal year began Oct. 1, defense planners have been operating on a series of budget measures that kept spending at fiscal 2021 levels. That meant new equipment purchases, program starts and other new priorities have been sidelined for months awaiting the full-year agreement. That has been particularly problematic in the area of military personnel. A 2.7% pay raise went into effect for service members Jan. 1, but Pentagon leaders were not given extra money to implement that change. As a result, officials have had to move money from other accounts to cover those costs, totaling more than $200m. Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces members train to use an NLAW anti-tank weapon on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, March 9, 2022. Authorities announced a new ceasefire on Wednesday to allow civilians to escape from towns around the capital, Kyiv, as well as the southern cities of Mariupol, Enerhodar and Volnovakha, Izyum in the east and Sumy in the northeast. Previous attempts to establish safe evacuation corridors have largely failed due to attacks by Russian forces. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

The new compromise budget solves that problem, and also provides a large aid package for Ukrainian officials fighting back against Russian forces that invaded their country last month.

About half of the $13.6bn will go to the Department of Defense, in large part to restore military stocks of equipment already transferred to Ukrainian military units through the president’s drawdown authority. Though on the second day of the war the White House proposed spending $6.4bn, the special fund grew steadily over the last two weeks amid Ukraine’s battlefield gains against Russia and pressure from lawmakers.

Pentagon Comptroller Mike McCord told a defense industry audience this week Ukraine will force increases to future defense budgets. The added funding in this budget, he said, dovetails with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s pressure on his staff to do as much as possible for Ukraine.

“He has been admonishing us that at every daily meeting, and we do have daily meetings on this, to focus on helping Ukrainians with our drawdown authorities as fast as we can, as long as we’re able to safely,” McCord said. “That has been a big priority and Congress has been very supportive of that.”

Another $3.1bn will cover “deployment, operational, and intelligence costs” for U.S. forces deployed to Europe in response to the Russian actions. Nearly 15,000 American service members have been deployed to the region in support of NATO allies in recent weeks, but none have been sent into Ukraine itself.

The bill also funds the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative — a new account to help train and equip the Ukrainian military — at $300m.

The State Department will receive about $4bn for “the rapidly expanding humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.” Officials say more than 12m people in the region are in need of food, shelter and other basic necessities because of shortages caused by the fighting.

The bill provides $650 m for military support and “an expansion of existing authorities to bolster the defense capabilities of the Ukrainian military and regional allies.” The increased defense top line is a boon to Pentagon’s weapons programs and the defense industry. The budget’s defense procurement allotment exceeds the budget request by about $12bn, with lawmakers adding $7bn more for research and development. Among notable moves for the Air Force, it would buy 20 more C-130J Super Hercules aircraft, made by Lockheed Martin, primarily for the Air National Guard to modernize two operational wings at an additional cost of $1.8bn. Amid testing failures, the Air Force’s planned hypersonic missile, the the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon, is facing a $161m cut. Lawmakers added 12 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to the Navy’s budget, keeping the Boeing’s production line going, and they added five ships ― including one more Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer than the administration requested. The Army won about $300m more than requested for Stryker and Abrams upgrades and $500m more for aircraft, chiefly to add more UH-60 Blackhawks, CH-47 Chinooks and Gray Eagle drones. (Source: Defense News)

11 Mar 22. Russian Military Efforts Stymied by Blunders, Stiff Ukrainian Resistance, Defense Official Says. Ukrainian resistance continues to be “stiff and determined,” a senior defense official said today at a Pentagon press briefing.

“Frankly, being very strategic about how they’re defending and where they are putting their resources where they’re most needed. They are doing it quickly. They are being adaptive and nimble,” the official said, noting they are using hit-and-run tactics to great advantage.

The Defense Department has surmised that the Russian intelligence apparatus didn’t fully factor in the degree to which Russian troops were going to be resisted, the official said.

Also, the DOD believes that the Russians haven’t properly planned and executed their logistics and sustainment efforts, the official noted.

Not since World War II have Russian forces executed such a large-scale ground operation using combined arms of air, land and sea, so it’s understandable, in a way, that their planning and execution has faltered. Combined arms integration is difficult to execute in any scenario by any country, the official said.

Having said that, the official believed that the Russians are “going to work through those challenges, and we’re beginning to see them do that.”

Situational Report Update

Advanced elements of Russian forces are about 15 kilometers from the center of Kyiv, which would put them near the suburbs of Ukraine’s capital, the official said.

Russian forces are also on the outskirts of Kharkiv, but there’s still a lot of fighting there and it’s being well defended. The city of Mariupol is under increasing pressure, but is also being well defended, the official said.

Also, the city of Mykolayiv is being effectively defended despite heavy fighting there, the official added.

Since the start of the war, the Russians have launched more than 800 missiles of all varieties and sizes into Ukraine, the official said.

Regarding the Russian convoy in the north of Ukraine, it has not made any significant progress. Some of their vehicles have moved off the road and into the tree line, presumably for force protection against Ukrainian attacks.

The Russians are flying on average 200 sorties per day — not all into Ukrainian airspace since cruise missiles can be launched from those aircraft to hit targets in Ukraine from a great distance. “There’s a general cautiousness on their part,” the official said.

The Ukrainians have about 56 fighter jets available and are flying about five-to-10 sorties per day. The official noted that they don’t really need to do more than that since the Russians have surface-to-air missiles that could knock those planes out of the sky. In addition, the Ukrainians have made great use of their drones, which can deliver munitions as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, the official said.

Spotlight: NATO

The United States and 14 allies continue to send defensive weapons systems into Ukraine, including small arms, anti-armor and air defense, the official said.

The official cautioned against U.S. veterans traveling to Ukraine to assist in the fighting. The best way Americans can help would be to contribute to organizations like the Red Cross, which is doing humanitarian work there, the official said. (Source: US DoD)

11 Mar 22. Defence firms ramp up pitch to exit sustainability wilderness.

Summary
Companies
SEB fund unit among first to loosen investment rules
Other large asset managers may follow – Jefferies
Sector on a role as governments ramp up spend

Largely ignored by the growing ranks of Europe’s socially minded investors, defence firms see a fresh chance to argue for a place in portfolios after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

One asset manager announced last week that it would re-allow investment in defence, a sign that cracks are emerging in widespread opposition to owning defence firms from sustainable investors in Europe.

Analysts expect more to follow. But for many with a sustainable tilt – defined by some as investing in companies that aim to have a positive impact on the world – it will prove a tough ask.

Rolls Royce (RR.L), Thales and Airbus (AIR.PA) have joined a chorus of companies over the last two weeks calling for investors to treat the sector more favourably, arguing security and stability are key to sustainability.

That comes after a year of the industry lobbying European authorities not to exclude defence from an upcoming framework or “taxonomy” on socially good investments.

It also follows years in which investors across Europe have avoided the sector in favour of firms with stronger environmental, social and governance (ESG) profiles, hurting defence shares and raising financing costs.

Most of the funds focused on sustainability that Reuters has spoken to remain cold on defence. But some are eyeing the returns on offer from the region’s push to raise security spending.

Sweden’s SEB Investment Management announced last week it had overturned a blanket ban on any company deriving more than 5% of its revenue from defence for six of its funds, although the majority of its product range is unchanged, including sustainable funds.

SEB attributed the change to pressure from customers for exposure to defence as Russian troops amassed on the Ukraine border, underlining that fund houses must answer to clients as well as their own sustainability promises.

“We are seeing evidence that a number of large European asset managers are re-evaluating the sector,” said Luke Sussams, head of ESG in Europe, the Middle East and Africa for investment bank Jefferies. “The Ukraine-Russia conflict has been a real wake-up call for ESG investors in general.”

Yet others say the sudden redrawing of Europe’s security architecture does not mean makers of fighters, missiles and tanks are suddenly sustainable.

“Sustainable investments must fulfil the criterion “Do no significant harm” – this is not the case with armaments,” said Henrik Pontzen, head of ESG at Union Investment. It is sticking to excluding from its sustainable funds any company that earns more than 5% of revenue from arms.

Sasja Beslik, head of sustainability at Danish pension fund PFA, said investors were wrong if they believed they could ensure that any investment in defence went solely towards defending borders.

“What are we going to include tomorrow? Let’s include chemical companies that are polluting certain parts of the world, but not the rest. Come on, it’s ridiculous,” he told Reuters.

While funds with a specific sustainable or ethical mandate may find it hard to change tack, others with a looser requirement to “integrate ESG risks” have more flexibility.

Sustainable managers typically avoid businesses that earn 5%-plus of revenue from defence, while the vast majority of risk-focused funds just ban those involved with unconventional weapons such as cluster munitions.

UBS analysts noted that rather than outright exclusions some ESG managers prefer engagement.

According to Morningstar, sustainable funds have a 0.2% weighting to aerospace and defence against the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF’s 1.1%. In Europe the underweighting is starker — 0.2% against 1.6%.

SOCIALLY GOOD OR BAD?

Still, defence lobbyists believe they are now winning the argument, especially after a strong indication that Europe’s drive to help funnel investment to socially and environmentally friendly activities would not exclude their industry.

A report prepared for the European Commission on its ‘Social Taxonomy’ last month omitted an earlier reference of defence as socially harmful. Lobbyists had feared it would lead to widespread fund exclusions.

With Germany, Sweden and others announcing bigger defence spending since the war in Ukraine, analysts have rushed to upgrade forecasts and share prices have soared.

Calling ESG concerns “spurious and morally weak”, Agency Partners said in a note that the EU taxonomy debate had clouded the investability and valuations of defence stocks.

And French warplane manufacturer Dassault Aviation (AM.PA) hit out at a “schizophrenic” situation that saw European defence spending rising only for U.S. rivals to benefit, because European suppliers were being harmed by the EU taxonomy drive.

“Taxonomy is not an effective weapon against current threats,” CEO Eric Trappier, who also represents the French defence industry, told reporters. “It is a weapon used against us, the defence industry, and the proof is that… its small suppliers are starting to have problems with their banks.”

FIGHTBACK

The defence industry’s fight is far from over, however.

Including defence in the EU social’s taxonomy would “fly in the face of the ‘Do No Significant Harm principle'”, said Hortense Bioy, sustainable research director at Morningstar.

European technical advisers are also backing a 5% revenue threshold to exclude defence companies from the bloc’s planned ‘EU Ecolabel’, which is designed to help consumers identify more environmentally friendly and socially good products.

A spokesperson said the Commission would “carefully reflect on all the implications of those exclusions for defence-related activities”, but stressed no final decision had been made.

For a fragmented industry that can struggle to compete against rivals in the United States where ESG concerns are less commonplace, winning hearts and minds of investors is crucial.

“Even if some banks and investors are coming back to defence, it doesn’t mean they all are,” said Jan Pie, secretary general of European defence industry lobby ASD, arguing that longer term, defence needed more reliable financial backers.

“It shouldn’t be public opinion that decides whether to finance the defence industry.” (Source: Reuters)

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Ukraine Conflict Update – March 14th

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

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