Ukraine Conflict Update

Ukraine Conflict Update – April 7

Military and hard security developments

There have been limited military developments over the last 24 hours, as Russian forces continue to reconstitute, redeploy to the east and make slow progress in the Donbas. Russian efforts in the east continue to be focused to the southwest of Izyum and along the Severodonetsk salient in Luhansk oblast. However, unconfirmed Ukrainian reports this afternoon indicate Ukrainian forces have managed to push Russian forces back some 6-10km along the contact line northeast of the village of Kreminna (northwest of Severodonetsk), indicating the area remains heavily contested, though this remains unconfirmed.
During a meeting of the Belarusian Security Council today, 7 April, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed that Belarusian special forces had conducted an operation inside Ukraine to “free” a number of its citizens who had been driving trucks and were allegedly trapped. Lukashenka provided no evidence of the operation, but alleged that it was so successful nobody noticed it. Up until now there has been limited evidence for the deployment of Belarusian forces inside Ukraine, despite significant pressure for Minsk to have done so earlier in the invasion to support operations north of Kyiv. While there have been movements of Belarusian forces alongside Russian forces reconstituting inside the country in recent days, Belarusian forces are unlikely to be deployed inside Ukraine at this stage now that Russian forces have withdrawn from Kyiv oblast. However, their presence near the border, both around Gomel and Brest in the southwest, will likely serve to compel Ukrainian forces to screen the border in case of a renewed offensive, and thus limit the number of Ukrainian troops available for reinforcement of the Donbas.
As expected, there have continued to be relatively few battlefield developments in the last 24 hours. Russia has continued to focus on shifting forces to Donbas, with reconnaissance actions continuing on the axes south of Izyum. The area has continued to see extensive fixed-wing and helicopter operations at low level, with Russian and Separatist forces making small but significant gains near Popasna and Rubizhne in Luhansk oblast.
Kyiv continues to urge the departure of civilians from the salient in northern Donetsk ahead of a major offensive anticipated to start fully within the next five days. This move also reflects increasing artillery and air bombardments. However, there are indications that some civilians in the area continue to be prepared to work with Russia, with recent Ukrainian setbacks continuing to be blamed on “traitors”, particularly in local leadership. While this sentiment is not widespread, it remains notably different to the situation encountered by Russia elsewhere.
The three Russian armies from the Eastern Military District withdrawn from the north are regrouping in Belarus. New equipment is being rotated for these formations, although some key assets such as the large 2S7M artillery pieces appear to have been transported away rapidly by air. These will likely be used in the south. The remainder of the force may remain in place to continue to pin Ukrainian troops around Kyiv, in the same way as forces near the Polish border have done so; this is a cheap way for them to influence the battle, while preparing for further operations.
Given extensive reporting on Russian movements in Belarus by the political opposition, it is unlikely that these forces can be involved in deception (maskirovka) while in the country. However, the final destination of any forces moving from Belarus will remain difficult to assess in the short term given a lack of reporting from inside Russia compared to earlier in the operation.
The big question at present is where these elements – and more particularly the substantial Central Military District forces that have withdrawn towards Kursk – could be redeployed. The options are: the axis through Izyum, which is already congested, but these forces could be used as a second echelon; a more direct attack on Severodonetsk, once Ukrainian forces have potentially been encircled, to add momentum there; around Donetsk, to form a northern thrust; or elsewhere in the south, potentially to help shore up Russian power in Kherson and south of Zaporizhzhia.
In the diplomatic arena, the supply of heavier war-fighting equipment to Ukraine remains a key topic. Kyiv’s foreign minister stated this morning that he had three priorities during his current visit to the EU and NATO; “weapons, weapons, and weapons”. This statement comes ahead of the NATO meeting today and the expected passage of a renewal of the WW2 era Lend-Lease military supply bill in the US. This passed the Senate last night (Bill S.3522) and will go to the House later today.
Opinion also continues to build around the human rights abuses uncovered following the Russian occupation in the north and northeast. The presumption remains that similar actions are happening in other occupied areas, but these are not coming to light due to information controls. Some reports indicate that Russia is now ensuring that evidence of further abuses is being hidden, including in Mariupol.
In the meantime, Moscow continues to issue counter-narratives, with varying degrees of success. Notably India has condemned the abuses, while remaining neutral diplomatically. Western nations meanwhile are increasingly describing the incidents as genocide, led by Poland, with this narrative likely to accelerate as more and more details emerge. This will drive further sanctions and willingness to take more risks in dealing with Russia, which may eventually lead to a more confrontational scenario emerging. At present though we assess that Moscow remains more focused on achieving its immediate victory objectives, calculating that aid will not come fast enough to influence the battlefield significantly, and attacks on infrastructure will limit Ukrainian capability in the meantime.
Should this campaign become bogged down – as it literally might once again, given the weather – then this calculus from Moscow will change. Regardless, peace talks will certainly remain stalled given Ukrainian anger over the incidents around Kyiv and Russia’s assessment that a reasonable victory is possible, allowing Moscow to negotiate from a position of greater strength. At this point, Putin will almost certainly seek relief from sanctions, but this will be difficult for increasingly entrenched Western nations to accept.
In the next 24 hours and over the weekend we expect further probing attacks behind extensive air and artillery use in Donbas. A major offensive could be launched in the next 2-5 days most likely south of Izyum, although supporting attacks will occur on other axes (particularly by Separatist forces), and pressure will be maintained across the salient. The reduction of Mariupol will continue while Russia will slowly reinforce across the south and east. Skirmishing will continue between Kherson and Mykolaiv, with Ukrainian forces having the upper hand. This is an area that may see early reinforcement and deployment of military aid from Kyiv, although this will serve as a further distraction from the decisive action in the Donbas.
Meanwhile, strategic strikes will continue nightly, posing the greatest threat to businesses and NGOs continuing to operate in the country. The priority order of targets for Russia remains fuel, weapons supplies or storage, military concentrations, and government infrastructure.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

The foreign ministers of NATO are due to meet today, 7 April, in Brussels to discuss the Ukraine crisis, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirming that the members will consider supplying heavy weapons and air defence systems to Ukraine. Despite earlier reticence to supply heavier weapons systems to Ukraine, numerous NATO member states are showing increased willingness to do so as Russian forces have so far not targeted Western weapons convoys entering Ukraine – with the exception of the strike of Yaroviv last month. The supplying of Soviet-era T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles by the Czech Republic seems to have proven a turning point this week, with British government sources also indicating intentions to supply UK armoured vehicles to Ukraine. While a decision hasn’t yet been made, British protected patrol vehicles including the Mastiff or Jackal vehicles remain options, which would augment Ukrainian reconnaissance and long-range patrol capabilities.
Furthermore, last night, 6 April, the US Senate unanimously approved a bill to revive the Lend-Lease programme last used during the Second World War. The legislation will go before the House of Representatives today, and would significantly hasten the transfer of military equipment and supplies to Ukraine by cutting bureaucratic red tape. It is clear that Western leaders consider the next few weeks to be a critical juncture in the war in Ukraine, with efforts to support Ukraine appearing to shift towards augmenting conventional forces – rather than earlier supplies of weapons which have in essence been designed to support low-intensity insurgency operations. However, at this stage it remains unclear how fast such transfer of heavier weapons, including air defences, will be and whether they will be brought online in time to influence the battlefield as Russian forces reconstitute and prepare to launch new offensives in the Donbas.

Economic/business environment developments

On 6 April the US announced a new package of sanctions, including a full block on Sberbank and Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest financial institution and largest private bank respectively. The sanctions will also prohibit any US person or entity from making new investments in Russia, with the Treasury outlining further sanctions on Russian state-owned enterprises today, 7 April. The UK has now announced similar sanctions, banning all outward investment and freezing the assets of numerous banks, including Sberbank and the Credit Bank of Moscow. The moves reinforce the isolation of Russian financial institutions and will further undermine Moscow’s access to large portions of its currency reserves. This has already brought Russia closer to a technical sovereign default after the Finance Ministry paid bondholders in rubles rather than dollars this week, threatening to deepen the financial crisis as Western institutions undergo a long-term divorce from the Russian market.
Despite this, the ruble has surged back to its pre-invasion value, trading as strong as 74.26 to the dollar in early Moscow trading this morning, 7 April. This arguably reflects the enduring dominance of energy exports on the Russian economy, which will continue to provide the Russian treasury with substantial revenues and a buffer to currency depreciation as long as European markets continue buying oil and gas in vast quantities. The recovery of the ruble is thus an easy metric for the Kremlin to support their assertions that Western sanctions are not working. However, numerous capital controls are likely supporting the ruble at present, including freezing assets held by non-resident investors and forcing domestic companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency holdings into rubles. This means that the current ruble recovery is unlikely to reflect the whole story.
Nevertheless, according to Bloomberg, Russia is expected to earn almost USD 321 billion from energy exports this year despite international sanctions, up more than a third on the previous year. While EU capitals will debate restrictions on oil imports this week, and have already reportedly agreed to ban Russian coal imports by August 2022, there remains no wider EU consensus on energy export bans – something which will likely ensure a steady stream of revenue for the Kremlin over the next six to 12 months unless a major policy shift occurs. However, such a shift at an EU level remains unlikely at present as Hungary’s government yesterday, 6 April, indicated their willingness to pay for Russian gas imports in rubles – something the wider EU and G7 had rejected. While a number of EU member states will likely take unilateral action, Hungary’s moves underline widening policy differences on energy within the bloc, with Germany also resisting moves to restrict oil and natural gas imports at an EU level.
Targeting of the media landscape continues to remain on trend, with Russian lawmakers proposing new legislation that would allow them to close media outlets that “disrespect” the Russian government. Once passed, the legislation would mark an escalation from previous legislation, given that under the new law media outlets could be shut and have their licenses revoked without a court order. Additionally, the bill would prohibit Russian journalists from citing foreign publications that refer to Russia’s actions in Ukraine as a “war” or an “invasion”, further underlining the ever-tightening control over the information landscape and the ongoing information war. The development comes as Russia’s communications watchdog Roskomnadzor accused YouTube of being “one of the key platforms spreading fakes” regarding the war in Ukraine and said that it will ban US tech giant Google from advertising in Russia, driving the risk of Google being the next non-state platform in line for a ban.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Considering the withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kyiv, the security situation in and around the city is likely to see a moderate improvement as of 7 April. The H01/P01 and the P32 remain the safest routes out of Kyiv. Emergency services announced on 7 April that they have cleared the westbound E40 of explosives and reopened it to traffic between Kyiv and Zhytomyr, although some social media reports indicate that the highway is not entirely cleared yet. Demining operations are taking place along the E373 by Ukrainian forces, therefore, security threats along this route remain higher than along southbound routes. The south-west E95 and the P04 remain unsafe as well following missile strikes in the vicinity of Fastiv and air raid warnings in Vinnytsia over the past week.
It is highly likely that ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian units continue to take place routes northwest and east of Kyiv. These are likely conducted in order to identify potential Russian fifth columnists/saboteurs and remaining Russian units. Ukrainian units conducting these checks are believed to be operating on capture/kill orders. As such, those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution.
Air raid warnings across western Ukraine – notably in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv – highlights the spread of the conflict into western Ukraine as Russian ground forces withdraw from around Kyiv, therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes at present.
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk announced that Ukraine is planning to open 10 humanitarian corridors today, 7 April, as Kyiv is expecting a new assault on the country’s southeast, with President Zelensky maintaining that Moscow remains undeterred. Local officials in the Donbas in particular called on the local civilians to leave, but as in previous attempts to evacuate the local populations, the risk of the ceasefire failing is very high. Indeed, yesterday’s attempts to move people out of Donetsk and Luhansk were undermined by artillery fire, underlining the high risk of evacuation attempts today also facing the same challenges.

FORECAST

As anticipated, peace talks continue to stall following the revelation of atrocities in Bucha. Growing discussions amongst Western capitals to supply Ukraine with more heavier weapons systems have already prompted warnings from Russia, with the Kremlin stating that “pumping weapons into Ukraine will not contribute to the success of Russia-Ukraine talks”. It remains our assessment that the taking of the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely remain the minimum objective for Moscow to be able to claim some sort of victory, especially given the emphasis that Russia placed on these territories prior to the invasion.

Moreover, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today alleged that Ukraine “withdrew from the proposals” discussed in Istanbul on 29 March, adding further pressure to the ailing talks. The Ukrainian side responded to this by accusing Lavrov of provocation, indicating that the prospect for meaningful peace negotiations has deteriorated over the last week compared to the previously cautiously pragmatic approach both sides have taken in previous weeks. Further revelations of atrocities and war crimes in Kyiv oblast will only further undermine talks in the weeks ahead, with German sources reporting today on intercepted Russian military communications allegedly ordering their forces to fire upon civilians. Such revelations will further reduce the likelihood of a settlement in the next month, with both sides likely remain focused on the battlefield rather than obtaining a diplomatic breakthrough.

Russia-US: Sanctions on banks and bans on investment will exacerbate financial crisis amid threat of sovereign default. On 6 April, the US announced a new package of sanctions, including a full block on Sberbank and Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest financial institution and largest private bank respectively. The sanctions will also prohibit any US person or entity from making new investments in Russia, with the Treasury outlining further sanctions on Russian state-owned enterprises today, 7 April. The UK has announced similar sanctions, banning all outward investment and freezing the assets of numerous banks. The moves reinforce the isolation of Russian financial institutions and will further undermine Moscow’s access to large portions of its currency reserves. This has already brought Russia closer to a technical sovereign default after the Finance Ministry paid bondholders in rubles rather than dollars this week, threatening to deepen the financial crisis as Western institutions undergo a long-term divorce from the Russian market.

US: Targeting of GRU-linked group likely to prompt escalation in tit-for-tat cyber conflict with Russia. On 6 April, officials from the Federal Bureau Investigation (FBI) revealed that the US government had interdicted a Russian military hacking operation in a pre-emptive strike. After securing legal authorisation, the FBI’s Cyber Division and the Justice Department targeted a large botnet comprising thousands of infected devices allegedly controlled by operatives linked to the Russian military intelligence (GRU) run group Sandworm. Through this operation, the US government was able to hijack the botnet and regain control of affected systems from Russian hackers. Sandworm is a sophisticated hacking group and is routinely deployed by the GRU. Washington’s revelation comes as Russia and the West are engaging in an intensifying information war over competing narratives around the Ukraine conflict. Russian state threat actors, including Sandworm, have been active in complimenting Moscow’s military operations by targeting Ukrainian entities, especially critical services such as water and energy infrastructure. The FBI’s decision to launch an offensive cyber campaign reflects a shift towards a proactive confrontation of Russian groups by the US government. Further pre-emptive strikes are possible in the coming weeks as the West ramps up pressure on Moscow following revelations of apparent war crimes committed by Russian troops. The strike will perpetuate the tit-for-tat cyber conflict between the two countries, with Russian threat actors now increasingly likely to target US entities, such as government departments, energy infrastructure, tech and defence. (Source: Sibylline)

07 Apr 22. Nato states agree to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine. Kyiv ‘cautiously optimistic’ after pleading for help to fend off expected Russian offensive in Donbas. Nato member states have agreed to supply new types of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, alliance representatives have said, as Kyiv prepares for a fresh offensive by Russia in the country’s east. The pledge came after a plea from Ukraine’s foreign minister for western countries to move faster with fresh supplies or instead see “many people die . . . because this help came too late”. Six weeks since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine Russian troops have largely withdrawn from territory north of Kyiv after failing to seize the capital but are regrouping and rearming ahead of an attempt to advance in the eastern Donbas region, Ukrainian and western officials say. That has sparked demands from Kyiv for western countries to supply more heavy weapons, armour and more advanced systems. Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said he would use a Nato meeting in Brussels to ask for aircraft, missiles, armoured vehicles and heavy air defence systems, among others. UK foreign secretary Liz Truss told reporters after the meeting that member states had backed giving more weapons. We are not going to let anything stand in the way of getting Ukrainians what they need Antony Blinken “There was support for countries to supply new and heavier equipment to Ukraine, so that they can respond to these new threats from Russia,” she said. “And we agreed to help Ukrainian forces move from their Soviet-era equipment to Nato standard equipment, on a bilateral basis.” Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said Washington was looking at sending “new systems” to Ukraine. “We are not going to let anything stand in the way of getting Ukrainians what they need,” he said. “We are looking across the board right now, not only at what we have provided . . . and whether there are additional systems that would make a difference.” (Source: FT.com)

07 Apr 22. UK Defence Ministers host Ukrainian government to plan future military aid. The demonstrations of UK equipment were held on Salisbury Plain and were followed by planning for future equipment requirements. UK Defence Ministers hosted a Ukrainian government delegation to Salisbury Plain Training Area this week to consider their equipment requirements and options for further military support, as they continue their defence against Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion.

Minister for Defence Procurement Jeremy Quin MP and Armed Forces Minister James Heappey MP were joined by Deputy Defence Minister Volodymyr Havrylov and senior Ukrainian military officers, who visited the UK on behalf of President Zelenskyy.

The UK Ministers held talks with their Ukrainian counterparts to understand the challenges they are facing on the ground to ensure military aid is targeted to their requirements and is able to integrate into existing systems.

During the visit the British Army’s 3rd Division and Royal Marines demonstrated a range of equipment and options for further military support, including defensive missile systems and protected mobility vehicles.

The Ukrainian delegation observed the Starstreak air defence system, which the UK has already provided and trained Ukrainian Armed Forces to use, so they can better defend their airspace from Russian aggression.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said: “Ukraine’s Armed Forces continue to put up a tenacious fight against the illegal and unprovoked invasion by Putin’s forces. We’re proud that they’re doing so with weapons provided by and through the United Kingdom.”

But the Ukrainian job is far from done and the Prime Minister has directed that the UK provides even more in support of this next phase of the conflict. It was an honour to show Minister Havrylov and his generals the kit the UK hopes to provide next and to discuss some new weapons that have been trialled recently with UK forces.

Defence Procurement Minister Jeremy Quin said: “The UK has been clear of our support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion. We are exploring options for future military support, including working with the UK Defence industry and our Ukrainian counterparts into the longer term to ensure the equipment supplied continues to be both effective and sustainable for their heroic armed forces.”

The UK has a deep and longstanding bilateral defence relationship with Ukraine and since 2015 has trained over 22,000 personnel as part of Operation Orbital and the UK-led Maritime Training Initiative. This training has included medical skills, logistics, countering improvised explosive devices (C-IED), leadership, planning, and infantry tactics.

The support was stepped-up in 2021 with the UK and Ukraine signing a bilateral treaty, which released £1.7bn of financing in support of the Ukrainian Naval Capabilities Enhancement Programme.

Since the Russian invasion the UK has been leading efforts to coordinate international donations, hosting two donor conferences to encourage further donations and support their delivery, as well as running the International Donor Coordination Centre in Stuttgart to ensure the international community’s military aid to Ukraine is as coordinated and effective as possible. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

07 Apr 22. Poland considering Italian, Korean alternatives to backfill MiG-29s. When the saga of Ukraine and the MiG-29 played out last month, the plan seemed fairly simple: Poland would ship its Russian made jets to Ukraine and the US would provide older-configuration Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters to Poland as a replacement. But while politics and loose lips appear to have sunk that deal, Poland has not given up on finding backfill options if it decides to transfer its MiGs in the future — and neither have defense aviation firms from around the world, who smell an opportunity to break into the Polish market. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to sound the alarm that new planes are needed not just to continue the air defense against Russia, but because its own fleet of MiG-29s will soon need parts and ammunition following the loss of domestic manufacturing capability. Wear and tear on the MiG-29s caused by a grueling op-tempo of daily sorties by the Ukrainian Air Force (PSU) cannot be addressed, as the repair and maintenance facilities in Ukraine that normally support the continued operation of the MiGs have been destroyed by Russian cruise missile strikes. Polish officials have been clear that they will not be giving away the MiGs without backfill from somewhere. While the F-16 was the primary option being sought, Poland is now considering a trio of other options in case it wants to move forward with shipping the MiGs across the border. The immediate aftereffect has been the Polish Ministry of National Defence quietly entertaining presentations by different combat aircraft suppliers — but without any official announcement or issuance of a real Request for Information.

The first option is an Italian offering of an armed, combat-capable version of the Leonardo/Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master. The Italians have been attempting to sell a combat-capable version of this trainer into an attack platform for some time. In Poland, the M-346FA, as it is designated in this configuration, would be proposed not only as a MiG-29 replacement but also a substitute for the Sukhoi Su-22s in Polish service.

Leonardo’s proposal is that the aircraft is a lower cost, dual-role platform that could supplement the initial trainer versions already operated by the Poles. The company’s pitch to Warsaw, according to a formal presentation viewed by Breaking Defense, is that “the use of an extended, combat version of this proven aircraft, the M-346FA, can also be beneficial. It is a lightweight multi-role aircraft equipped with a radar, which is a very profitable, tactical solution for the modern battlefield.

“The machine is equally well suited for air-to-surface tasks, air-to-air missions and tactical reconnaissance missions,” the pitch continues. “It can perfectly replace the 20-30 tonne fighter-bomber aeroplanes that are expensive to purchase and operate in less demanding direct air support tasks or anti-insurgency operations.”

Meanwhile, a senior delegation from the Republic of South Korea (ROK) is travelling to Poland to propose the Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50 light attack aircraft. As an indicator of how badly KAI would like to seal the deal, included in the delegation, expected this week, is the South Korean Deputy Defense Minister. (Source: glstrade.com/Breaking Defense.com)

06 Apr 22. Intelligence agencies accelerate use of commercial space imagery to support Ukraine. Since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, space imagery, remote sensing and communications satellites have been informing the public and helping keep Ukrainian forces and civilians connected. Because of its partnerships with commercial industry, the U.S intelligence community was positioned to quickly leverage those capabilities to increase its own support in the region, accelerating several in-the-works acquisition efforts and increasing the capacity of planned procurements.

David Gauthier, director of commercial and business operations at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, said Wednesday at the Space Symposium that as it became apparent Russia was preparing to invade, the agency worked to more than double its purchases of commercial electro-optical imagery over the region from companies like Maxar, Planet and BlackSky.

NGA also tapped its testing pipeline for commercial synthetic aperture radar and pushed it directly into operations months earlier and at five times the rate it had planned, Gauthier said. SAR satellites, unlike electro-optical sensors that can struggle to see in the dark or in harsh conditions, can provide imagery at nighttime and through adverse weather conditions.

“But really, that wasn’t good enough,” Gauthier said. “We were patting ourselves on the back a little bit, but we still had this feeling in our minds that we needed to get more [geospatial intelligence] directly into the hands of Ukrainians to really impact what is happening on the ground.”

So, Gauthier and his team began coordinating private efforts to directly connect analysts in Ukraine with companies — facilitating a much faster link for providing services. He noted that the agency is now also speeding up its acquisition of some “new and untested commercial services” that could support humanitarian aid efforts.

Gauthier said this practice of pushing “good enough solutions into operations immediately” needs to become a more regular way of doing business for the government.

“We’ve had the luxury for several decades of being able to choose perfection when we integrate new capabilities into our IT architectures,” he said.

One approach NGA has taken is to tailor its testing, evaluation and authority to operate processes for different systems, depending on the complexity and security requirements of their mission. With that approach, he said, a situational awareness capability may be able to field more quickly than it would in the more traditional acquisition system.

“We really do need a spectrum across the board that lets us bring new commercial solutions to the fight almost instantly,” Gauthier said.

The U.S. Space Force is also looking at ways to better leverage commercial capabilities. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told reporters this week the display of commercial capability during the conflict is already driving the Department of Defense to consider how to better integrate commercial systems.

“You’re seeing through the Ukrainian experience the value of space capabilities,” Kendall said Tuesday. “Commercial space is very much a part of that equation. So, there are going to be a lot of lessons learned as we go through this by a lot of different parties, and we’re going to sort out what it implies for our future investments and how we work with commercial space.”

Along those lines, U.S. Space Command this week released a new commercial integration strategy, a segment of which is focused on speeding up the time it takes to field capabilities.

SPACECOM Commander Gen. James Dickinson told reporters Tuesday he wants to make it easier for companies to enter into agreements to provide capabilities like space domain awareness and imagery. The command has seen during the Ukraine invasion the benefits of augmenting its systems with commercial capability and wants to do more of that, he said. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

07 Apr 22. White House Issues Fact Sheet on Latest U.S. and EU Sanctions Against Russia.

The White House has issued a Fact Sheet on the latest United States, G7, and you sanctions against Russia. The United States’ actions include the following:

Full blocking sanctions on Russia’s largest financial institution, Sberbank, and Russia’s largest private bank, Alfa Bank. This action will freeze any of Sberbank’s and Alfa Bank’s assets touching the U.S financial system and prohibit U.S. persons from doing business with them. Sberbank holds nearly one-third of the overall Russian banking sector’s assets and is systemically critical to the Russian economy. Alfa Bank is Russia’s largest privately-owned financial institution and Russia’s fourth-largest financial institution overall.
Prohibiting new investment in the Russian Federation. President Biden has signed a new Executive Order (E.O.) that includes a prohibition on new investment in Russia by U.S. persons wherever located. This action builds on the decision made by more than 600 multinational businesses to exit from Russia. The exodus of the private sector includes manufacturers, energy companies, large retailers, financial institutions, as well as other service providers such as law and consulting firms. See also President Biden’s Message to Congress on this new E.O.
Full blocking sanctions on critical major Russian state-owned enterprises. This will prohibit any U.S. person from transacting with these entities and freeze any of their assets subject to U.S. jurisdiction, thereby damaging the Kremlin’s ability to use these entities it depends on to enable and fund its war in Ukraine.
Full blocking sanctions on Russian elites and their family members, including sanctions on President Putin’s adult children, Foreign Minister Lavrov’s wife and daughter, and members of Russia’s Security Council, including former President and Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. This action cuts them off from the U.S. financial system and freezes any assets they hold in the United States.
Prohibiting Russia from making debt payments with funds subject to U.S. jurisdiction. Sanctions do not preclude payments on Russian sovereign debt at this time, provided Russia uses funds outside of U.S. jurisdiction. However, Russia is a global financial pariah — and it will now need to choose between draining its available funds to make debt payments or default. (Source: glstrade.com)

07 Apr 22. A girl arrives at a centre for internally displaced people in south-eastern Ukraine after residents were urged to flee the Donbas region. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded with the international community to provide more military supplies and to impose tighter sanctions on Russia as his foreign minister said he had one demand of Nato: “Weapons, weapons and weapons.” The pleas from Kyiv come as Ukraine’s military warned that invading Russian troops were regrouping and preparing an offensive in the eastern Donbas region, aimed at seizing territory in the two administrative regions that separatists have partially occupied since a Moscow-backed uprising in 2014. “The main efforts of the occupiers are focused on preparing for an aggressive operation in eastern Ukraine, which aims to establish complete control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” the general staff of the armed forces said on Thursday after Russian troops retreated from the suburbs of Kyiv and the north of the country in recent days. Ukrainian military authorities on Wednesday called on residents living in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as parts of the north-eastern Kharkiv region, to leave “while they still had the chance”. (Source: FT.com)

07 Apr 22. Ukraine calls on Nato for ‘weapons, weapons, weapons’ in bid to win war. Ukraine has said it knows “how to win” the war against Russia, but called on Nato nations to provide it with “weapons, weapons, weapons” in order to minimise fatalities and suffering.

Speaking at the Nato headquarters in Brussels on Thursday, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said: “My agenda is very simple. It’s weapons, weapons and weapons.

“We know how to fight. We know how to win. But without sustainable and sufficient supplies requested by Ukraine, these wins will be accompanied by enormous sacrifices.

“The more weapons we get and the sooner they arrive in Ukraine, the more human lives will be saved.”

Pleading with Germany in particular to offer more assistance, he said: “While Berlin has time, Kyiv doesn’t.”

It came as the US on Wednesday said that Ukraine can “absolutely” win the war. “The proof is literally in the outcomes that you’re seeing everyday… absolutely they can win,” John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

06 Apr 22. More Javelins for Ukraine amid questions about US supplies. The U.S. has approved another $100m in Javelin anti-tank weapons and training for Ukraine from U.S. military stocks, for a total of $1.7bn in U.S. aid committed since Russia’s invasion.

“I have authorized, pursuant to a delegation from the President earlier today, the immediate drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $100 million to meet Ukraine’s urgent need for additional anti-armor systems,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Tuesday.

Ukraine’s use of Javelins and anti-aircraft Stinger missiles supplied by the U.S. and its allies has taken center stage in Ukraine’s fight to repel Russia. U.S. defense officials credit Javelins with blunting Russia’s armored forces and Stingers with denying Russia air superiority ― all while Russia’s forces are stumbling logistically and cannot link their air and ground power.

“The Javelin, the Stingers have proven to be very, very effective in this fight. We’ve also learned that just because you have the capability, it doesn’t mean that you’re going to overwhelm another force easily,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said of Russia during a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday.

“The Russians … have significant mechanized capability, but as you look at the techniques and tactics, procedures that they used, they were not very effective,” Austin said. (Source: Defense News)

07 Apr 22. Elite Ukrainian Drone Unit on Quad Bikes Ambushed Russian Forces. One week into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia massed a 40-mile mechanised column in order to mount an overwhelming attack on Kyiv from the north. But the convoy of armoured vehicles and supply trucks ground to a halt within days, and the offensive failed, in significant part because of a series of night ambushes carried out by a team of 30 Ukrainian special forces and drone operators on quad bikes, according to a Ukrainian commander.

The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists designing their own machines and has evolved into an essential element in Ukraine’s successful David-and-Goliath resistance.

However, while Ukraine’s western backers have supplied thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and other military equipment, Aerorozvidka has been forced to resort to crowdfunding and a network of personal contacts in order to keep going, by getting hold of components such as advanced modems and thermal imaging cameras, in the face of export controls that prohibit them being sent to Ukraine.

The unit’s commander, Lt Col Yaroslav Honchar, gave an account of the ambush near the town of Ivankiv that helped stop the vast, lumbering Russian offensive in its tracks. He said the Ukrainian fighters on quad bikes were able to approach the advancing Russian column at night by riding through the forest on either side of the road leading south towards Kyiv from the direction of Chernobyl.

The Ukrainian soldiers were equipped with night vision goggles, sniper rifles, remotely detonated mines, drones equipped with thermal imaging cameras and others capable of dropping small 1.5kg bombs.

“This one little unit in the night destroyed two or three vehicles at the head of this convoy, and after that it was stuck. They stayed there two more nights, and [destroyed] many vehicles,” Honchar said.

The Russians broke the column into smaller units to try to make headway towards the Ukrainian capital, but the same assault team was able to mount an attack on its supply depot, he claimed, crippling the Russians’ capacity to advance.

“The first echelon of the Russian force was stuck without heat, without oil, without bombs and without gas. And it all happened because of the work of 30 people,” Honchar said.

The Aerorozvidka unit also claims to have helped defeat a Russian airborne attack on Hostomel airport, just north-west of Kyiv, in the first day of the war, using drones to locate, target and shell about 200 Russian paratroopers concealed at one end of the airfield.

“That contributed largely to the fact that they could not use this airfield for further development of their attack,” saaid Lt Taras, one of Honchar’s aides.

Not all the details of these claims could be independently verified, but US defence officials have said that Ukrainian attacks contributed to the halting of the armoured column around Ivankiv. The huge amount of aerial combat footage published by the Ukrainians underlines the importance of drones to their resistance.

The unit was started by young university-educated Ukrainians who had been part of the 2014 Maidan uprising and volunteered to use their technical skills in the resistance against the first Russian invasion in Crimea and the Donbas region. Its founder, Volodymyr Kochetkov-Sukach, was an investment banker who was killed in action in 2015 in Donbas – a reminder of the high risks involved. The Russians can latch on to the drone’s electronic signature and quickly strike with mortars, so the Aerorozvidka teams have to launch and run.

Honchar is an ex-soldier turned IT marketing consultant, who returned to the army after the first Russian invasion. Taras, who asked not to use his surname, was a management consultant, who specialised in fundraising for the unit and only joined full-time as a combatant in February.

In its early days, the unit used commercial surveillance drones, but its team of engineers, software designers and drone enthusiasts later developed their own designs.

They built a range of surveillance drones, as well as large 1.5-metre eight-rotor machines capable of dropping bombs and rocket-propelled anti-tank grenades, and created a system called Delta, a network of sensors along the frontlines that fed into a digital map so commanders could see enemy movements as they happened. It now uses the Starlink satellite system, supplied by Elon Musk, to feed live data to Ukrainian artillery units, allowing them to zero in on Russian targets.

The unit was disbanded in 2019 by the then defence minister, but it was hastily revived in October last year as the Russian invasion threat loomed.

The ability to maintain an aerial view of Russian movements has been critical to the success of Ukraine’s guerrilla-style tactics. But Aerorozvidka’s efforts to expand, and to replace lost equipment, have been hindered by a limited supply of drones and components, and efforts to secure them through defence ministry procurement have produced little, partly because they are a recent addition to the armed forces and still considered outsiders.

Furthermore, some of the advanced modems and thermal-imaging cameras made in the US and Canada are subject to export controls, so they have resorted to crowdfunding and asking a global network of friends and supporters to find them on eBay or other websites.

Marina Borozna, who was an economics student at university with Taras, is exploring ways of buying what the unit needs and finding routes to get the supplies across the border.

“I know there are people who want to help them fight, people who want to do a bit more than the humanitarian aid,” Borozna said. “If you want to address the root cause of this human suffering, you’ve got to defeat the Russian invasion. Aerorozvidka makes a huge difference and they need our support.”

Her partner, Klaus Hentrich, a molecular biologist in Cambridge, is also helping the effort, drawing on his experience as a conscript in the German army.

“I was in an artillery reconnaissance unit myself, so I immediately realised the outsized impact that Aerorozvidka has. They effectively give eyes to their artillery,” Hentrich said. “Where we can make a difference is to rally international support, be it financial contributions, help to get harder-to-find technical components or donations of common civilian drones.”

The unit is also looking at ways to overcome Russian jamming, part of the electronic warfare being waged in Ukraine in parallel to the bombs, shells and missiles. At present, Aerorozvidka typically waits for the Russians turn off their jamming equipment to launch their own drones, and then it sends up its machines at the same time. The unit then concentrates its firepower on the electronic warfare vehicles.

Honchar describes these technological battles, and Aerorozvidka’s way of fighting, as the future of warfare, in which swarms of small teams networked together by mutual trust and advanced communications can overwhelm a bigger and more heavily armed adversary.

“We are like a hive of bees,” he said. “One bee is nothing, but if you are faced with a thousand, it can defeat a big force. We are like bees, but we work at night.”

Top Photo: satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the northern end of a convoy south-east of Ivankiv, north-west of Kyiv (Image: Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies) (Source: UAS VISION/The Guardian)

06 Apr 22. DOD: More Javelins Approved for Ukraine; Switchblades On their Way.  An additional $100m in presidential drawdown to support Ukraine was approved yesterday. Part of that will be used to provide additional Javelin anti-armor systems to Ukrainian forces, said Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby.

“This $100 million is designed to help us meet an urgent Ukrainian need for additional Javelin anti-armor systems, which the United States has been providing to Ukraine,” Kirby said during a press briefing at the Pentagon today. “They’ve been used very effectively to combat the Russian attack on the Ukrainian homeland.”

Kirby said that the total number of Javelin systems being sent to Ukraine doesn’t necessarily match a specific type of target, such as Russian tanks, for instance. Instead, he said, the Javelin, while designed for anti-armor use, is fairly versatile.

” can be used on other vehicles as well and even fixed targets if need be,” Kirby said. “And there have been thousands of Javelins that we have provided to Ukraine and we know they’re using them. You can see the evidence for yourself when you look at the videos and the images on TV of these burnt-out tanks and burnt-out trucks and armored personnel carriers.”

Kirby told reporters this is the sixth drawdown of equipment from DOD inventories for Ukraine since August of 2021.

A “drawdown,” according to documentation available from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, allows the president in certain circumstances — including for such things as peacekeeping operations, narcotics control, international disaster assistance, antiterrorism assistance, nonproliferation assistance, migration and refugee assistance — to withdraw weapons, ammunitions and material from existing U.S. military stocks and provide that to other nations.

Along with the $300 million in military assistance announced last month, Kirby said, the total U.S. security assistance commitment to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion has been more than $1.7 billion.

“The United States, along with our allies and partners, will continue to work closely with our Ukrainian partners to evaluate their specific requirements, to ensure that our assistance meets their highest priority needs, as again they continue to courageously defend their country,” Kirby said.

The U.S. has also agreed to send 100 Switchblade unmanned systems, or drones, to the Ukrainians, Kirby said, adding that those drones are already in Ukraine or will be arriving there shortly.

“We’re in discussions with Ukrainians about future … usages of Switchblade drones, and of course we’ll keep that option open going forward,” he said.

Ukrainian soldiers do not typically use the Switchblade, Kirby said, and because of this, some amount of training will be needed to familiarize them system, as was mentioned during testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley.

“It is not a very complex system,” Kirby said. “It doesn’t require a lot of training. An individual could be suitably trained on how to use a Switchblade drone in about two days or so.”

Kirby told reporters the training mentioned by Austin and Milley involved a small number of Ukrainian soldiers who are already in the U.S. and have been in the U.S. since the fall for professional military education.

“We took the opportunity to … give them a couple of days’ worth of training on the Switchblade so that they can go back, and they will be going back soon, back home, to train others in the Ukrainian military,” Kirby said. “We’ll look at other suitable opportunities if needed to provide more training on the Switchblades if it’s necessary.”  (Source: US DoD)

07 Apr 22. UK to send armoured vehicles to aid Ukraine. British military chiefs are drawing up plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, The Times has learnt. The UK is adding to its offer of lethal weapons in the belief that the next three weeks will be critical in determining the outcome of the war. Options under consideration in the Ministry of Defence include sending a protected patrol vehicle, such as the Mastiff, or a vehicle like the Jackal, which can be used as a reconnaissance or long-range patrol vehicle. These could enable Ukrainian forces to push further forward towards Russian lines. (Source: The Times)

07 Apr 22. Russia targets eastern Ukraine as the West imposes further sanctions. Russian forces have withdrawn from the two key areas in the north of Ukraine they pledged to “drastically reduce combat operations” in during peace talks. The Pentagon says they no longer have a presence in the capital, Kyiv, and the northern city of Chernihiv. Russia has shifted its focus to target the east of the country in an area known as Donbas – parts of which are already controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Russia is launching attacks, they’re intensifying, and Ukraine is urging people in towns and cities such as Luhansk and Donetsk to evacuate. Thousands are trying to leave as Russian troops move to surround Ukrainian forces to take control. Ukraine has been fighting a war there for the past eight years, and troops are preparing for the latest battle. While Russia continues put pressure on Ukraine with its military onslaught, the West has added further economic strain on Moscow. The daughters of Russian President Vladimir Putin have been made subject of sanctions by the US. The family of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and major banks have also been targeted. The UK also announced measures against banks and eight oligarchs – including a major financial donor to a private hospital used by the Queen. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says these latest sanctions look “spectacular” but are not enough. They’re in response to accusations of atrocities carried out by Russian forces during the invasion. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the attacks on people in the town of Bucha do not “look far short of genocide”, and Ukraine fears there may be worse atrocities in Borodyanka. Russia continues to deny it all, with state TV reflecting this narrative. Since accusations of Russian atrocities emerged they have presented these reports as lies. And as Russia steps up its campaign in the east, Nato foreign ministers will be meeting later to look at ways to support Ukraine as the war continues. (Source: BBC)

06 Apr 22. How the UK might contribute lethal aid to Ukraine defence. The UK has sent Ukraine large consignments of weapons in its defence against Russian invasion. The UK has already sent Ukraine large consignments of weapons, including more than 10,000 anti-tank missiles which have proven effective against Russian armour. Ukrainian forces have also used US Stinger missiles to take down enemy aircraft. But how does Ukraine defend against the Russian artillery threat? Cities such as Mariupol and Kharkiv have come under relentless fire from shells. What can the UK contribute to Ukrainian defence? Britain has the AS-90 but it is complex and nearing the end of its life.

Justin Crump, a former British Army Tank Commander, told Forces News: “We thought that by now, Ukraine would be fighting an insurgency and actually they’re still fighting a conventional conflict but with equipment for an insurgency.

“We haven’t sent them enough of the right equipment. We’re now moving towards equipping them for warfighting, probably at just the time they’re not going to have any fuel to be able to actually operate anything we send anyway.”

“We’ve got a real bind as to what we actually send,” he added.

Ukraine’s air force flies the Russian-made SU-27, which is fast but lacks modern countermeasures.

Against it, Russia has the formidable S-400 air defence system, with the capability of hitting aircraft 150km away.

To try to level things up, the UK has sent STARStreak to Ukraine – a short-range missile that is used against low-flying aircraft and helicopters.

Footage has emerged reportedly showing it being used to down a Russian helicopter.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says the UK will help to protect the Ukrainian coastline from Russian warships and amphibious assault craft.

Last year, Britain signed a £1.7bn deal to supply Ukraine with minehunters and naval weaponry, but getting it to the country is difficult.

The Ukrainians could take a leaf out of the Iranian playbook and use small gunboats to harass the Russians at sea.

Dr Alessio Patalano, a senior lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London, said: “The logic here if you could turn any single fast boat that you can find around the port into the maritime version of your Toyota pick-up for any insurgent fighting a war, that’s already a very important consideration to make.

“Being able to deploy on a fast little, tiny craft, a bit of an RPG () or anything that would make it a lot harder for the Russians, to target these assets as well as to have the serenity, if you want, to plan an amphibious operation, that is already a win.”

What else might Britain send?

Protected vehicles such as the Foxhound could go, or some other Afghan-era troop carriers, but spares and servicing are complicating factors.

There is an argument it would be more efficient to source ex-Soviet or Russian-made weaponry from around the world, like T-72 tanks – systems the Ukrainians have experience of.

The MOD remains tight-lipped about what it is sending, but in this age of social media, the first time UK contributions will be known will be when they are seen on the frontline. (Source: forces.net)

06 Apr 22. Ukraine offers financial rewards to Russian troops who surrender and hand over kit. The incentives go up to around US$1m for the transfer of a combat aircraft or 1st rank ship. A Russian Su-25 jet involved in the Ukraine conflict (Picture: Russian MOD). Ukraine is offering financial rewards to Russian personnel who surrender and hand over military equipment. The incentives range from about US$25,000 (around £19,100) for reactive volley fire systems to US$1m (around £764,000) for combat aircraft and 1st or 2nd rank ships. It follows comments from the First Deputy Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, on its official website, about the law passed on 1 April concerning “the establishment of remuneration for voluntarily transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine”.

Oleksandr Kornienko said: “We understand that, on the one hand, we have many willing soldiers of the aggressor country’s army to replenish their financial status, and we do not see anything wrong here – if they surrender not just individually, but also with their equipment.”

He believes that due to the demoralisation of the “occupying Army” and confusion among soldiers over their motivation and purpose in the conflict, the reward tool will work.

Mr Kornienko added that this measure had first been announced at the start of the conflict, by his colleague David Arahamiya.

The Deputy Speaker hopes that the rewards will not only encourage Russians to lay down their arms but also replenish stocks of weaponry in the Ukrainian ranks.

The new law sets out that the following financial rewards be offered for military equipment (amounts in US dollars):

– Combat aircraft (fighter and assault aircraft) – 1,000,000;

– Combat helicopter – 500,000;

– Reactive volley fire system – 25,000-35,000;

– Tank, ground artillery (self-propelled) – 100,000;

– Infantry fighting vehicle (landing), armoured personnel carrier, armoured reconnaissance patrol vehicle – 50,000;

– Military vehicle (truck, specialised), military tractor, military engineering vehicles: reconnaissance, demining, mine barriers, bridges, fencing, for paving roads, for earthworks, to overcome water obstacles – 10,000;

– Ships of 1st or 2nd rank – 1,000,000;

– Ships of 3rd or 4th rank – 500,000;

– Ships of military (auxiliary) support – 200,000;

– Ships of small combat (reconnaissance) purpose – 50,000.

(Source: forces.net)

Ukraine Conflict Update – April 7

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE