09 Mar 22. Latest Updates.
Key Takeaways
- Following Warsaw’s announcement that it will hand over all of its MiG-29 fighter jets to a US airbase in Germany in order to bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia, Washington blocked the transfer of fighter jets from Poland to Ukraine, underlining concerns of coming into a direct conflict with Russia. Meanwhile, the UK announced that it intends to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles, also stating that it was not ruling out the supply of other weaponry, a move that, if implemented, would mark a notable step in London’s support for Ukraine and would very likely be perceived as escalatory by Moscow, given its warnings that those supplying weapons to Ukraine would be a direct party to the conflict. Underlining the reluctance to be brought into a closer conflict with Russia are also British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s comments that authorities will consider prosecuting serving military personnel who travel to Ukraine, on the grounds of absence without leave or desertion. Whilst the government is yet to clarify its position on former soldiers joining the conflict, amid reports of ex-soldiers travelling to the Polish border to join Ukrainian troops, the UK is likely to maintain its position in discouraging citizens from joining the war given that this would represent a flashpoint for further escalation with Moscow.
- Ukrainian interior ministry advisor Vadym Denysenko reported that Russia has once again largely failed to respect humanitarian corridor agreements aimed at facilitating civilian evacuations, in particular from Kharkiv and areas in Kyiv. Similarly, Kharkiv’s regional governor, Oleh Syniehubov, stated that persistent Russian shelling has postponed plans for civilian evacuations on 9 March, with the Red Cross undertaking negotiations with Moscow to expedite evacuation procedures. This comes despite Russia agreeing on 8 March to observe a temporary ceasefire in six regions, though evacuations have successfully taken place in the north-eastern city of Sumy and Enerhodar. Furthermore, the humanitarian crisis continues to mount in Mariupol, with media reports confirming that a maternity and children’s hospital was destroyed by a Russian air raid. The strikes reportedly took place during an agreed ceasefire with Russia, due to hold until 21:00 local time (19:00 GMT) on 9 March. At the time of writing, there is little detail to confirm the extent of casualties or possible fatalities, however, Mariupol City Council verified that the collateral damage and immediate impact on buildings and surrounding areas is “colossal”. The incident comes as the director general of the World Health Organisation, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus confirms the verification of 18 attacks against healthcare facilities, vehicles and workers in Ukraine. Further Russian strikes could represent a strategy aimed at limiting available medical treatment for Ukrainian forces and undermining the public morale and ability to resist, thus facilitating advances by Russian forces.
- Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s energy operator, said that power to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been entirely cut, and that the plant “was fully disconnected from the power grid [with] no possibility to restore the lines. The announcement follows warnings Ukraine’s warning that the risk of a radiation leak from the plant has increased, as a result of the electricity supply being cut off. However, the International atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a statement stating that the loss of power does not have critical impact on safety. Nevertheless, the incident, along with last week’s shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, which is also currently under Russian control, underlines the growing concerns over the wider nuclear security across the whole of Europe, particularly as the IAEA expressed concerns over the alleged violations of international safe protocols after the plant pant was seized.
- General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on their social media that the occupying Russian forces in Kherson have reportedly detained more than 400 Ukrainian protesters, who continue holding mass demonstrations against Russia’s occupation. The reports indicate that the Russian forces have introduced Russian Rosguard units into the region to establish an administrative-police regime. The announcement underlines our previous assessment that protest actions will likely be increasingly repressed in the occupied territories, with the Russian forces likely to increasingly resort to more brutal tactics to stem dissent. Meanwhile, repression of dissent continues in Russia, with the latest media reports highlighting that more and more university students protesting against Russian invasion of Ukraine will be expelled.
- Ahead of a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected a suggestion to create a new version of NextGenerationEU, a dedicated debt-financed recovery fund. Rutte noted that the creation of a new fund at this moment in time may result in disproportionate financial costs for certain states, such as the Netherlands, and suggested utilising existing mechanisms to address emerging financial consequences. Recent discussions underscore possible disagreements and sticking points amongst European leaders in terms of conflict-related fiscal policies, including the issuing of new common debt.
- Lastly, following concerns aired by continental banks, including the European Central Bank, the European Commission has confirmed the inclusion of crypto assets within their sanctions list. High-level officials further stated that they will investigate any outstanding concerns over legal ambiguities relating to the transferral of digital assets in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
FORECAST
An aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 9 March that Kyiv is open to discussing Russia’s demands of Ukraine’s neutrality, so long as Kyiv is given security guarantees. However, the statement reiterated that Kyiv will not surrender a “single inch” of territory, and that preconditions for such talks with President Vladimir Putin would require a cease-fire and withdrawal of Russian troops, both of which remain highly uncertain, with the latter particularly unlikely. The statements follow President Volodymyr Zelensky’s comments yesterday which signalled his willingness to reach a “compromise” with Russia on a number of its key demands, including recognising Crimea as Russian territory, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. However, our assessment at the time of writing remains that is unlikely that Zelensky will sign a peace agreement in the next week, with Russia expected to be unyielding in its demands and thus provide little to no room for “compromise”. As a result, it would likely still require an effective capitulation on Zelensky’s part to stop the fighting in the short term, which Kyiv is highly unlikely to be prepared to do at this stage. The situation on the Western borders and along western evacuation routes remains largely unchanged since yesterday. Russia is increasingly using long-range weapons as advances towards Kyiv remain stalled, and the increasing use of rockets and missiles will continue to threaten civilian areas in and around Kyiv, maintaining security risks along most evacuation routes out of Kyiv. Russian troops advanced along the E40 and the P04 today, and fighting is expected to continue around Buzova, Makariv and Zhytomyr, rendering that route unsafe. In comparative terms, the H01/P01 may represent the safest route out of the city, although any travel is undertaken at one’s own risk as all approaches to Kyiv are vulnerable to shelling or missile fire. This is further highlighted by the red alerts issued for potential aerial strikes in Vasylkiv, Vinnytsia and Bilka Tserkva today. Russian forces have already conducted aerial attacks against Bila Tserkva along the P32 west to H01 on Saturday (5 March). Social media accounts indicate several missiles may have hit the village of Vasylkiv on 7 March, further rendering the E95 an unsafe route.
National assessments of border delays are increasingly unreliable as some governments have ceased updating information pertaining to delays. We include below a map of border posts with our estimates for crossing times, as well as a database of all border crossings between Ukraine and the EU.
- The Ukraine conflict has already began to significantly impact the price of cereal grains, particularly wheat, threatening to elevate food security threats in the Horn of Africa region which both imports the majority of its wheat and is in the midst of a major drought.
- Rising prices will further complicate efforts to assist communities effected by drought driving socio-economic tensions which will elevate levels of intercommunal conflict. This will exacerbate domestic unrest amid ongoing political crises relating to the conflict with rebel groups in Ethiopia, driving violence in the Oromia region, threatening overland movement outside the capital Addis Ababa and disrupting supply chains between Addis Ababa and Kenya.
- In Somalia it will increase tensions around repeatedly delayed legislative and presidential elections threatening to drive clashes between clans in southern Somalia, particularly Jubbaland. This may be exploited by al-Shabaab, driving attacks in Mogadishu and into neighbouring Kenya.
- While in Kenya divides will play into the increasingly combative rhetoric between the nation’s ethnic groups in the approach to the August elections, with the increased threat of violence around polls elevating threats to local staff in the Rift Valley region and Nairobi and disrupting supply chains.
Key Takeaways
- The Ukraine conflict has already began to significantly impact the price of cereal grains, particularly wheat, threatening to elevate food security threats in the Horn of Africa region which both imports the majority of its wheat and is in the midst of a major drought.
- Rising prices will further complicate efforts to assist communities effected by drought driving socio-economic tensions which will elevate levels of intercommunal conflict. This will exacerbate domestic unrest amid ongoing political crises relating to the conflict with rebel groups in Ethiopia, driving violence in the Oromia region, threatening overland movement outside the capital Addis Ababa and disrupting supply chains between Addis Ababa and Kenya.
- In Somalia it will increase tensions around repeatedly delayed legislative and presidential elections threatening to drive clashes between clans in southern Somalia, particularly Jubbaland. This may be exploited by al-Shabaab, driving attacks in Mogadishu and into neighbouring Kenya.
- While in Kenya divides will play into the increasingly combative rhetoric between the nation’s ethnic groups in the approach to the August elections, with the increased threat of violence around polls elevating threats to local staff in the Rift Valley region and Nairobi and disrupting supply chains.
Impact of the Ukraine conflict on global food prices
The conflict in Ukraine has already begun to significantly impact the value of agricultural products, particularly grains such as wheat, as Ukraine and Russia account for nearly 30 percent of the world’s traded wheat. Sanctions against Russia and physical damage to civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, has significantly disrupted exports, with this trend likely to endure through 2022 as conflict impacts the planting of new crops in the spring period and summer harvesting of wheat planted in autumn. The spike in the value of wheat, rising over 50 percent in the Chicago market, is most threatening for countries highly reliant on food imports, particularly in the Horn of Africa where this trend will exacerbate a food security crisis caused by drought.
Drought in the Horn of Africa renders the region particularly vulnerable to rising food prices
The Horn of Africa – specifically southern and central areas of Somalia, southern and eastern areas of Ethiopia and northern and eastern areas of Kenya – is experiencing one of the most severe La Nina-induced droughts in recent history. The October-December 2020, March-May 2021 and the October-December 2021 rainy seasons all saw below average rainfall, significantly impacting harvests. Across affected parts of Somalia and Kenya, the January/February harvests are between 60-70 percent below-average while across all three countries, millions of livestock animals have died, at least 1.4 million in Kenya and 1.5 million cattle across all three countries.
The resilience of communities in these areas to this challenge has been significantly undermined over recent years by repeated food security challenges, reducing available reserves. This current drought marks the third severe drought (2010-2011, 2016-2017 and 2020-2021) the region has seen within 10 years but these events do not represent the full extent of recent challenges. In 2019, the same region underwent two consecutive below average rainy seasons, pushing around 12 million people into a position of severe food insecurity, and when high levels of rain did return by the end of the year, this prompted plagues of locusts which again decimated the region’s crop production. As such, with communities having been unable to fully recover from previous drought seasons and crop losses the UN now warns that 13-14 million people in the region face severe levels of hunger, while roughly 29.1 million people across the Horn of Africa are in need of humanitarian assistance.
A new rainy season is due to begin in March, continuing through until May. If rains are again below average, marking a fourth consecutive failed rainy season for the first time in roughly 40 years, the number of people facing severe levels of food insecurity will increase to around 20 million. However, while temperatures remain unusually high, the Horn’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD’s) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre estimates that heavy rains are likely in East Africa over this rainy season mitigating the threat of an imminent rise in the number of food insecure people.
Regardless, millions across the region will continue to face significant levels of food security, a trend which will likely be exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict. Across the region, wheat accounts for one third of average national cereal consumption, yet 84% of the wheat demand is secured through imports. Over reliance on imports from Russia and Ukraine particularly presents a threat to both Kenya and Ethiopia, but reduced supply of one cereal will likely only drive increased consumption of alternative cereals in turn prompting further shortages and price rises, impacting the wider region.
This trend will likely be further exacerbated by global spikes in the price of oil, connected to widespread uncertainty about the possible extent of international sanctions against Russia’s energy market. This will further increase logistics costs, which combined with the stretching of humanitarian spending globally will likely prevent humanitarian partners from securing the USD 4.4 billion they have requested to support affected communities. Without this support, heightened socio-economic tensions will likely translate into significant domestic unrest, exacerbating a number of ongoing political crises across the region.
Elevated levels of food insecurity will exacerbate domestic unrest amidst ongoing political crises
Ethiopia:
These conditions threaten to exacerbate violence around several ongoing political challenges facing the region. In Ethiopia, the government’s authority and available capital has been undermined by the ongoing conflict with the Tigray regional government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), with sanctions from Western governments and enhanced military spending reducing available financial support for drought relief. Additionally, the TPLF have in turn made an alliance with pro-federalist forces in the Oromia region, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Here drought conditions in southern Oromia may exacerbate rising levels of anti-government sentiment amongst the Oromo people, increasing support for the OLA.
Increased recruitment among the OLA would enhance their capacity to conduct attacks both on military positions and against non-Oromo communities in the Oromia region, with rising intercommunal conflict elevating threats to overland transport between Addis Ababa and Kenya. Boosted OLA recruitment would also increase threats to staff moving in and out of Addis Ababa more broadly, although it remains unlikely that the OLA would gather sufficient support to attack Addis Ababa. Additionally, with government forces distracted with efforts to contain OLA and TPLF forces, the drought has also begun to exacerbate political tensions in Ethiopia’s Somali region. This has prompted the local government to crackdown on critics, elevating threats to NGOs and driving the threat of protests in the regional capital Jijiga.
Somalia:
In Somalia, the drought will likely play into local grievances with the government, amidst rising tensions between critics and supporters of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed. Somalia was meant to hold legislative elections, which would have then facilitate a presidential election, in December 2020. As Somalia’s election system is conducted through selected clan elites and other notables, the elections are highly vulnerable to manipulation and intimidation of voters. Concerns of electoral fraud and attempts by both sides to secure the election of their candidates have repeatedly delayed polls which are now scheduled to be concluded by 15 March, extending the mandate of the presidency far beyond his constitutional term.
If elections are again delayed, it may impede the governments capacity to endorse reforms which are required under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility in time for its mid-May review, resulting in the automatic termination of the programme which is aimed at reducing Somalia debt from USD 5.2bn to USD 557 million. This will limit Somalia’s financial capacity to respond to drought challenges. It would also risk prompting another constitutional crisis over President Mohamed’s mandate, with militias loyal to and opposed the president potentially clashing in Mogadishu and governments in regions such as Jubbaland refusing to recognise President Mohamed’s authority. Unrest over drought conditions will exacerbate these inter-clan disputes elevating levels of violence which may be exploited by al-Shabaab to bolster recruitment and influence in southern rural areas, driving the threat of attacks in Mogadishu and into Kenya’s border counties.
Kenya:
Kenya is not currently in the midst of a political crisis but continued deterioration of drought conditions, driving intercommunal conflict and instances of cattle raiding, which has already resulted at least eight deaths since December in the northern Turkana country, may elevate tensions around the August general election. There are growing concerns of violence around the August polls as President Uhuru Kenyatta has reneged on his informal agreement with Deputy President William Ruto and is instead backing opposition leader Raila Odinga for the presidency. This has driven allegations among Ruto’s Kalenjin community that Kenyatta has acted to specifically deny them the presidency, leading to mounting instances of hate speech and aggressive rhetoric on social media and among local radio stations.
This has driven concerns that polls may see outbreaks of violence, similar to the 2007 election in which around 1,300 people were killed in clashes between supporters of Odinga and former president Mwai Kibaki. In this context, high rates of food insecurity will contribute to rising levels of intercommunal conflict, playing into the combative ethnic divides around polls. The exploitation of these divides by local politicians in northern and eastern communities will drive clashes around campaign events and polling stations and elevate the likelihood of protests in the immediate aftermath of the election, increasing threats to local staff and disrupting supply chains through major cities.
Russia: Counter sanctions following US energy embargo to disrupt commodity supply chains
On 8 March, President Joe Biden announced that the US will ban all Russian energy imports, including oil and gas, representing a notable escalation of Western sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has already indicated that sanctions on the energy industry will limit the country’s ability and willingness to meet its international financing obligations, despite efforts to mitigate the financial impact of Western sanctions. In response to escalating sanctions, President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Moscow would ban the export of commodities and raw materials to countries that have imposed “hostile actions”, namely sanctions, on Russia. Targeted governments could be among the 43 designated by Moscow as “unfriendly countries”, such as the US and EU member states. The measure is likely to severely disrupt key raw resource supply chains in the coming weeks, with the threat of such disruption prolonged for countries and firms unable to rapidly diversify their supply chains, driving shortages of key components for manufacturers.
European Union: New sanctions package underscores sticking point on a Russian energy ban; uncertainty to sustain market instability
EU ambassadors have approved in principle a new sanctions package proposed by the EU Commission, removing three Belorussian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, targeting more Russian oligarchs and the Russian maritime industry sector. The sanctions are expected to be finalised today, 9 March, triggering a formal procedure for them to take effect. The new set of measures comes amid commitments by both the US and UK to ban the import of Russian oil, but is unlikely that the EU will reach an agreement on the matter. While the EU Commission is planning to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds in a year and wean off Russian gas before 2030, direct energy sanctions with immediate effect would considerably undermine the bloc’s energy security. While EU leaders are likely to announce plans to phase out Russian oil, gas and coal following the 10-11 March summit in Versailles, market concerns will continue to sustain oil and gas price volatility in the coming weeks.
- A humanitarian evacuation corridor around Sumy to Poltava is to be extended for a second day, after local Ukrainian officials confirmed over 5,000 people were successfully evacuated on 8 March. In other developments, a temporary ceasefire has been agreed in other key cities, including the southern town of Enerhodar, the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, to allow for the evacuation of civilians to Zaporizhzhia further north. In Kyiv oblast, various humanitarian corridors have also been agreed for today, 9 March, including from the north-west towns of Bucha, Vorzel, Irpin, Borodyanka and Gostomel to Kyiv via Stoyankts and Belgorodka.
- The latest US intelligence assessments of the ongoing war estimate that Russia has lost between 2,000-4,000 soldiers and around 5% of its combat equipment since the beginning of the invasion two weeks ago today. While the Ukrainians put the figure much higher to over 12,000 Russian dead, the US assessment places the Russian to Ukrainian losses at around the 3:1 ratio that is expected between attacker and defender. As such, this has likely already been factored into Russian planning of acceptable and anticipated losses. Earlier this week, a US Defense Department official stated that Russia has now committed “almost 100 per cent” of the combat forces that were previously amassed at the border to Ukraine. They also said that they do not believe Russia is moving up additional battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from elsewhere in the country to support the Ukrainian operation, though unconfirmed open-source footage does indicate continuous movements of Russian units across the country nevertheless. In addition, during a US House Intelligence Committee yesterday, 8 March, CIA Director Bill Burns stated that Russian forces had planned to take Kyiv within two days of the invasion, with Russian “military planning and assumptions […] based on a quick, decisive victory”. However, while Russian forces have made little progress north of Kyiv over the last week, logistical problems are likely being resolved, which means an assault on Kyiv or a concerted effort to cut the city off is increasingly likely in the coming week.
- In a surprise announcement on 8 March, Poland said that it intends to send all of its MiG-29 jets to a US airbase in Germany, following a plea from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky for more fighter aircraft to be transferred to Ukraine. The US reportedly did not know about this offer in advance, with reticence in Washington and NATO to openly supply such aircraft to Ukraine due to Russian threats that such supplies would be seen as a direct act of aggression. Warsaw has now handed over the decision on what should be done with the aircraft to NATO itself, which has in recent days reiterated that it will not impose a no-fly zone. Additional fighter jets would bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, but even if supplies are agreed, it is unlikely to significantly alter the dynamics given that the numbers involved are relatively small, and the aircraft themselves remain technologically inferior to many types of aircraft utilised by the Russian Air Force. Additionally, it is presently unclear whether NATO will decide to deploy them to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Warsaw’s decision could prompt other owners of MiG-29 jets, namely Slovakia and Bulgaria, to do likewise, a move which would inevitably escalate tensions with Russia given Moscow’s warnings against sending fighter jets to Ukraine.
- Following the announcement yesterday, 8 March, that the US and UK would ban Russian oil, gas and coal imports, the economic situation inside Russia continues to deteriorate. On 9 March the Fitch ratings agency downgraded Russia’s credit rating once again to “imminent default”, and follows a warning by Morgan Stanley & Co on 7 March that Russia is facing a Venezuela-style default. Russia has already indicated that sanctions on the energy industry will limit the country’s ability and willingness to meet its international financing obligations. Russian authorities are increasing efforts to mitigate the financial impact of Western sanctions, but such measures will only go so far in the short term. On 8 March the Russian Central Bank suspended cash currency exchanges and limited the issuance of foreign currency from Russian bank accounts. From 9 March, Russian account holders will be able to withdraw up to USD 10,000, but all other withdrawals will be made in rubles. The value of the ruble has plummeted since last week, and now stands at 134 rubles to the dollar.
- With Western sanctions still escalating, the Russian government warned on 9 March that its counter sanctions will hurt the West. President Vladimir Putin confirmed on 8 March that Russia would ban the export of key products and raw materials to countries that have imposed “hostile actions” (sanctions) on Russia. This would mark the most serious Russian counter sanction to date and could seriously disrupt supply chains for various key resources, with Putin ordering the government to draw up a list of targeted countries within two days. Russia remains a dominant exporter of various raw materials, and as such targeted countries will need to rapidly diversify their supply chains of key resources if targeted. The prices of key commodities including wheat, aluminium, nickel and palladium all rose on the back of the announcement.
- In the last 24 hours, Starbucks, PepsiCo, Rolex, Netflix, Ferrari, Universal Music, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s have all announced the suspension of their business in Russia, with the Yale School of Management stating that 290 companies with a significant presence in Russia have withdrawn from the country since the beginning of the invasion.
- On 8 March, industry reports claimed that the websites of several Russian ministries, including the Ministry of Energy, were compromised by a cyber attack. These incidents reportedly defaced the sites’ homepages with two images displaying the words “Why?”. While it remains unclear who is responsible, this incident follows the 7 March Anonymous-led hack against Russian television channels that replaced their programming with coverage of the Ukraine conflict by independent broadcasters Current Times and Dozhd TV, which have been blocked by the Russian government. If officially confirmed to be an Anonymous attack, this latest operation would be consistent with the group’s 3 March claim that they compromised more than 2,500 websites linked to the Russian and Belarusian governments (see Sibylline Biweekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 8 March 2022). Despite these hacktivists’ growing utilisation of cyber space to support Ukraine during this conflict, their rudimentary attacks have largely been symbolic in nature and had a limited impact on the Russian military’s capabilities. Nevertheless, with Russia’s military offensive unlikely to abate, there is a high likelihood of further hackers adopting the group’s moniker to launch further low-level attacks against Russian businesses and government agencies in support of Ukraine.
FORECAST
Yesterday’s announcement of new American and British economic sanctions targeting the Russian energy sector prompted Russia to reiterate its threats of counter sanctions, with Putin stating that Russia intends to ban certain exports to nations it perceives to be “hostile” to Russia. In the immediate term, the US and UK are likely to be most at risk of such potential counter measures, though a full list of targeted countries is expected to be published within 48 hours. As a consequence, and looking to the week ahead, we are likely to see the strength of Russian counter sanctions against the West, which will underscore not only the risk of export bans, but also potentially nationalisation of assets. The military situation on the ground in Ukraine will furthermore compound these economic tensions, with Poland’s willingness to hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets to bolster Kyiv’s capabilities set to drive tensions with Russia. Warsaw appears to have laid the decision on what to do with these aircraft at NATO’s door, which given previous Russian warnings against the alliance arming Ukraine underlines the escalatory potential of this issue. Individual NATO states supplying weapons and aircraft to Ukraine may be deniable and limit the scope for Russian retaliation. However, a potential alliance decision to supply such aircraft to Ukraine, endorsed by the North Atlantic Council, will be by contrast much more escalatory which the Kremlin will likely see as a more clear-cut NATO intervention in Ukraine. It remains unclear whether NATO will endorse such a decision, or whether more clandestine aircraft and wider military deliveries will continue, but the development of this issue will be a key trigger and tripwire in the days ahead. For further insights into our scenarios and how these and other developments could impact the outlook of the war, see our ongoing Scenarios and End States planning. The situation on the Western borders and along western evacuation routes remains largely unchanged since yesterday. According to a statement by Pentagon on 7 March, Russia has now deployed most of its 127 battalions, and is increasingly using long-range weapons as advances towards Kyiv remain stalled. The increasing use of rockets and missiles will continue to threaten civilian areas in and around Kyiv, maintaining security risks along most evacuation routes out of Kyiv. Heavy fighting continues in Irpin as Russian forces try to take strategically important positions northwest to Kyiv. Russian troops also advanced along the E40, and fighting is expected to continue around Buzova, Makariv and Zhytomyr, rendering that route unsafe. The P04 highway to Fastiv also remains unsafe as Russian advances were recorded at Byshiv. In comparative terms, the H01/P01 may represent the safest route out of the city, although any travel is undertaken at one’s own risk as all approaches to Kyiv are vulnerable to shelling or missile fire. Of note, Russian forces conducted aerial attacks against Bila Tserkva along the P32 west to H01 on Saturday (5 March), highlighting increasing risks south to Kyiv as well. Social media accounts indicate several missiles may have hit the village of Vasylkiv on 7 March, further rendering the E95 an unsafe route. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Mar 22. Russian invasion plans ‘profoundly flawed,’ but ‘ugly next few weeks’ for Ukraine coming: US intel.
“If they pursue the maximalist plan, we judge it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kiev in the face of what we assess is likely to be persistent and significant insurgency,” said Avril Haines, director of national intelligence.
Top US intelligence officials warned today that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be deterred from continuing his invasion of Ukraine, but predicted that should Russia successfully overthrow the Ukrainian government, it will likely face an intense insurgency effort for years to come.
“If they pursue the maximalist plan, we judge it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv in the face of what we assess is likely to be persistent and significant insurgency,” said Avril Haines, director of national intelligence.
Haines’ comments came as top intelligence officials appeared before lawmakers today to discuss the intelligence community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment, which provides an unclassified overview of national security threats ranging from nation-states to terrorism to global health risks. Despite the breadth of the annual assessment, the hearing was dominated by questions about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
CIA director William Burns said that Putin’s assumptions for going to war were “profoundly flawed” and that analysts within the CIA struggle to see how Putin’s endgame — installing a pro-Russia government and sustaining it — will be workable for Moscow.
“Where that leads I think is for an ugly next few weeks in which he doubles down with scant regard for civilian casualties — in which urban fighting can get even uglier,” Burns said. “One thing I’m absolutely convinced of, and I think our analysts across the intelligence community are absolutely convinced of, is the Ukrainians are going to continue to resist fiercely and effectively.”
Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said with “low confidence” that Russian military had suffered between 2,000 to 4,000 killed in the first 11 days of the invasion. According to Burns, those numbers are far higher than the military anticipated because they expected a “quick, decisive victory.” (In comparison, almost 20 years of war in Afghanistan led to just under 2,500 American KIA.)
“We assess Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues,” Haines said.
The annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, completed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is being released as the United States and several European allies send shipments containing thousands of different types of military equipment to the Ukrainian military, which has put up fierce resistance in the early days of Russia’s campaign.
“We assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with U.S. forces,” the report states. “Russia seeks an accommodation with the United States on mutual noninterference in both countries’ domestic affairs and U.S. recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence over much of the former Soviet Union.”
But while the intelligence report released Monday afternoon warned of Moscow’s modernization efforts, especially geared toward long-range strike and nuclear weapons, it also highlighted the limitations of the Russian military on full-display in recent logistical problems seen inside Ukraine.
“Moscow has the wherewithal to deploy forces in strategically important regions, but the farther it deploys from Russia, the less able it probably will be to sustain intensive combat operations,” the report states.
The report also notes that the Russia will remain the most prominent nuclear threat to the United States “for the foreseeable future” as it expands and modernizes its nuclear arsenal. Moscow views its nuclear capabilities as a crucial deterrent against the West.
That point was underscored recently by Putin’s veiled nuclear threat against Western nations ahead of his military’s invasion in Ukraine, warning that interference in the conflict would lead to “consequences they have never seen,” in addition to his recent decision to increase the nation’s nuclear force readiness level.
“Moscow views its nuclear capabilities as necessary for maintaining deterrence and achieving its goals in a potential conflict against the United States and NATO, and it sees a credible nuclear weapons deterrent as the ultimate guarantor of the Russian Federation,” the report states.
China and Russia
Officials also warned lawmakers that China and Russia are increasingly working together, with Haines stating that the relationship is “across a range of sectors and security.” However, Haines stated that Russia’s actions toward Ukraine could affect their relationship.
“It’s not yet clear to me exactly how it will affect the trajectory of their relationship,” Haines said.
Burns told lawmakers, concerned about Chinese aggression toward Taiwan, that China had taken notice of the sweeping international sanctions placed on Russia and has likely influenced their calculus on action against Taiwan.
“They’re a little bit unsettled by the way in which Vladimir Putin has driven Europeans and Americans much closer together,” Burns said. “I think they’ve valued their relationship with Europe and valued what they believe to be their capacity to try to drive wedges between us and the Europeans.”
Outside of collaboration, the report shows China and Russia are both investing in similar military capabilities to keep pace with the United States. In space, both China and Russia are developing satellite reconnaissance; position, navigation and timing; and satellite communications into weapons and command and control systems. China, the report states, is “working to match or exceed U.S. capabilities in space,” while Russia will focus on integration of its space capabilities that would allow Moscow to “more quickly identify, track, and target U.S. satellites during a conflict.”
Both nations are developing counterspace capabilities designed to knock out US and allied satellites. That assessment comes on the heels of Russia’s anti-satellite weapons test that sent roughly 1,500 pieces of space debris flying and led to safety concerns for the International Space Station.
According to the report, the Chinese military is fielding both destructive and nondestructive ground- and space-based antisatellite weapons. Counterspace operations will be “integral” to any military campaigns by China, it stated.
The report also confirms that China’s Hypersonic Glide Vehicle flight test last year flew around the world and impacted inside China. (Source: Breaking Defense.com)
09 Mar 22. Russia announced a new ceasefire in Ukraine to let civilians flee besieged cities, but there were only limited signs of progress providing escape routes for hundreds of thousands of people trapped without medicine or fresh water. The governor of Sumy, an eastern city, said civilian cars were leaving for a second day through a safe corridor set up to Poltava further west.
Radioactive substances could be released from Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear power plant because it cannot cool spent nuclear fuel after its power connection was severed, Ukraine’s state-run nuclear company Energoatom said.
Any supply of fighter jets to Ukraine must be done through NATO, top Polish officials said, after Washington rejected Poland’s offer to fly all its MIG-29 jets to a U.S. airbase with a view to them being supplied to Kyiv.
Russia warned the West that it was working on a broad response to sanctions that would be swift and felt in the West’s most sensitive areas.
Britain said it had impounded a plane connected to a Russian billionaire under new aviation sanctions which give authorities the power to detain any Russian aircraft and to ban exports of aviation or space-related goods to Russia. (Source: Reuters)
08 Mar 22. Pentagon Estimates Thousands of Russian Troops Have Been Killed in Ukraine. U.S. analysts believe as many as 4,000 Russian troops may have been killed in the 13 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency said Tuesday.
While noting analysts have “low confidence” in the assessment, DIA Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier told the House Intelligence Committee that, based on a mix of intelligence sources and open source information, his agency believes anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 Russian troops have been killed so far.
By contrast, 2,461 U.S. troops died during the entire 20-year war in Afghanistan.
The high Russian casualty count underscores the setbacks Moscow has faced since Russian forces launched a massive invasion of Ukraine, reversals that U.S. intelligence officials testified Tuesday would lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin escalating the violence.
“I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He’s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties,” CIA Director William Burns said.
“He has no sustainable political endgame in the face of what is going to continue to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians,” Burns added. “Where that leads, I think, is for an ugly next few weeks in which he doubles down, as I said before, with scant regard for civilian casualties.”
The House Intelligence Committee hearing was scheduled as its annual “Worldwide Threats” panel, which typically covers a wide range of global hot spots, but questions Tuesday largely focused on the war in Ukraine that Russia launched late last month.
Russia, which has outlawed reporting that calls the war a war, has been hesitant to acknowledge deaths in the conflict, which it describes as a “special military operation.” But its defense ministry said last week that 498 Russian soldiers had died and 1,597 had been injured.
Ukraine puts Russian casualties even higher than the U.S. estimate, with the Ukrainian Defence Ministry saying Tuesday morning that 12,000 Russian troops have been killed since the start of the war.
Despite initial U.S. assessments that Ukraine’s capital could fall to Russia in a matter of days, Ukrainian forces have held onto Kyiv, and a Russian military convoy said to be 40 miles long remains stalled about 15 miles outside the city due to a mix of what American officials describe as Russian logistics failures and Ukrainian attacks.
If Russia were to successfully cut off food and other supplies to Kyiv, Berrier estimated the situation inside the city would “become somewhat desperate … in 10 days to two weeks.”
Russia’s strategy for the invasion has so far mirrored what the U.S. intelligence community anticipated, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the committee Tuesday. But Putin underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and Russia’s own “serious military shortcomings,” she continued.
Haines added that it’s unclear whether Russia will continue to pursue a “maximalist” plan to capture all or most of Ukraine, but she echoed Burns’ assessment that Putin is likely to escalate the violence.
Russia amassed nearly 200,000 troops along Ukraine’s border ahead of the invasion, and a senior defense official told reporters Tuesday that 100% of those forces are now inside Ukraine. If Russia decides to pursue the maximalist approach, it would need to devote more forces to the war, Haines said at the hearing.
“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose,” Haines said. “But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time, given the significant costs he is incurring.” (Source: Military.com)
09 Mar 22. The Netherlands and Germany to deploy Patriot system in Slovakia. Patriot (MIM-104) can intercept tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. The Netherlands and Germany have reportedly started preparations to deploy Patriot surface-to-air missiles in Nato member Slovakia.
According to Associated Press, the Dutch defence ministry is currently working with Germany to send the air-defence system to Slovakia.
The move comes after Nato requested placing Patriot missiles in Slovakia as a defensive measure amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The Netherlands Minister of Defence Kajsa Ollongren told the publication that the Dutch ruling coalition has already reached an ‘in principle’ agreement to station the system.
After the Netherlands cabinet approves the plan, the Patriot system along with around 150-200 Dutch troops will be moved to Slovakia.
Previously, the Netherlands deployed its Patriot systems in southern Turkey between 2013 and 2015 to thwart missile attacks from Syria.
It was also stationed during the two Gulf Wars.
The Patriot (MIM-104) is a long-range air defence system that can intercept tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. The PAC-1 version has a range of around 70km.
The current operators of the missile defence system include the US, Germany, Greece, Israel, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Kuwait and Taiwan among others. It is produced by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control.
Last year, Swedish Armed Forces received Patriot air defence missile systems.
Recently, the US State Department approved a possible foreign military sale (FMS) worth $100m to help Taiwan to maintain and improve its Patriot System.
The purchase will help Taiwan to maintain its missile density and readiness, as well as deter regional threats. (Source: army-technology.com)
09 Mar 22. Ukraine conflict: Canada to renew Nato mission in Europe. Canada also committed 460 additional troops to reinforce Operation Reassurance. Canada is set to extend its commitment to a Nato military mission, in response to the changing security situation in Europe after Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine. The North American country will renew the multi-year Operation Reassurance, which offers Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) support to Nato deterrence activities in Central and Eastern Europe. The move was announced by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a bilateral visit to Latvia. Under Operation Reassurance, CAF conducts training, exercises and some Nato-specific tasks as part of collective defence. The operation was scheduled to expire next year. Besides extending the mission, Prime Minister Trudeau recently committed up to 460 additional troops to reinforce Operation Reassurance. This will include sending more military personnel to Latvia.
He has also placed approximately 3,400 CAF personnel at a higher state of readiness to deploy to the Nato Response Force if required.
Trudeau said: “Canada continues to work in close collaboration with Nato allies to support Ukraine as it defends its people, its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence.”
The US also recently announced that it will send 500 additional personnel to Europe. The troops will join existing deployments to further strengthen the US’ presence in the region.
Canadian satellite builder and operator MDA CEO Mike Greenley told Reuters, in an interview, that the company is supporting Ukraine by providing it with near real-time satellite images of Russian troop movement.
Ukraine previously requested synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data from the international community to strengthen its defences amid ongoing hostility. (Source: army-technology.com)
09 Mar 22. Cyber warfare: how the digital world became a battlefield.
Cybersecurity expert explains how virtual wars are fought.
With the Russia-Ukraine war in full swing, cybersecurity experts point to a cyber front that had been forming online long before Russian troops crossed the border. Even in the months leading up to the outbreak of war, Ukrainian websites were attacked and altered to display threatening messages about the coming invasion.
“In response to Russian warfare actions, the hacking collective Anonymous launched a series of attacks against Russia, with the country’s state media being the main target. So we can see cyber warfare in action with new types of malware flooding both countries, thousands of sites crashing under DDoS (distributed denial-of-service) attacks, and hacktivism thriving on both sides of barricades,” Daniel Markuson, a cybersecurity expert at NordVPN, says.
The methods of cyberwarfare
In the past decade, the amount of time people spend online has risen drastically. Research by NordVPN has shown that Americans spend around 21 years of their lives online. With our life so dependent on the internet, cyber wars can cause very real damage. Some of the goals online “soldiers” are trying to pursue include:
- Sabotage and terrorism
The intent of many cyber warfare actions is to sabotage and cause indiscriminate damage. From taking a site offline with a DDoS attack to defacing webpages with political messages, cyber terrorists launch multiple operations every year. One event that had the most impact happened in Turkey when Iranian hackers managed to knock out the power grid for around twelve hours, affecting more than 40 million people.
- Espionage
While cyber espionage also occurs between corporations, with competitors vying for patents and sensitive information, it’s an essential strategy for governments engaging in covert warfare. Chinese intelligence services are regularly named as the culprits in such operations, although they consistently deny the accusations.
- Civilian activism (hacktivism)
The growing trend of hacktivism has seen civilian cyber activists take on governments and authorities around the world. One example of hacktivism is Anonymous, a group that has claimed responsibility for assaults on government agencies in the US. In 2022, Anonymous began a targeted cyber campaign against Russia after it invaded Ukraine in an attempt to disrupt government systems and combat Russian propaganda.
- Propaganda and disinformation
In 2020, 81 countries were found to have used some form of social media manipulation. This type of manipulation was usually ordered by government agencies, political parties, or politicians. Such campaigns, which largely involve the spread of fake news, tended to focus on three key goals – distract or divert conversations away from important issues, increase polarization between religious, political, or social groups, and suppress fundamental human rights, such as the right to freedom of expression or freedom of information.
The future of cyber warfare
“Governments, corporations, and the public need to understand this emerging landscape and protect themselves by taking care of their physical security as well as cybersecurity. From the mass cyberattacks of 2008’s Russo-Georgian War to the cyber onslaught faced by Ukraine today, this is the new battleground for both civil and international conflicts,” Daniel Markuson says.
Markuson predicts that in the future, cyber war will become the primary theater of war for global superpowers. He also thinks that terrorist cells may focus their efforts on targeting civilian infrastructure and other high-risk networks: terrorists would be even harder to detect and could launch attacks anywhere in the world. Lastly, Markuson thinks that activism will become more virtual and allow citizens to hold large governmental authorities to account.
A regular person can’t do much to fight in a cyber war or to protect themselves from the consequences. However, educating yourself, paying attention to the reliability of sources of information, and maintaining a critical attitude to everything you read online could help increase your awareness and feel less affected by propaganda.
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NordVPN is the world’s most advanced VPN service provider, used by millions of internet users worldwide. NordVPN provides double VPN encryption and Onion Over VPN and guarantees privacy with zero tracking. One of the key features of the product is Threat Protection, which blocks malicious websites, malware, trackers, and ads. NordVPN is very user friendly, offers one of the best prices on the market, and has over 5,000 servers in 60 countries worldwide. For more information: nordvpn.com
09 Mar 22. Four serving British soldiers may have gone to fight for Ukraine. MoD says service personnel are banned from travelling to fight Russia after reports of missing soldiers. The Ministry of Defence has said that service personnel are banned from travelling to Ukraine amid reports that British soldiers have gone absent without leave to fight against Russia.
The statement followed reports that a 19-year-old Coldstream Guardsman is among as many as four missing British soldiers feared to have travelled to Ukraine following the Russian invasion.
A Ministry of Defence spokesman added: “All service personnel are prohibited from travelling to Ukraine until further notice.
“This applies whether the service person is on leave or not. Personnel travelling to Ukraine will face disciplinary and administrative consequences.”
The MoD added it would not comment on specific cases.
According to The Sun, a teenage Coldstream Guardsman, who was based in Windsor barracks, wrote a goodbye letter to his parents and bought a ticket to Poland over the weekend with the aim of crossing into Ukraine.
All travel to Ukraine is banned under official UK military advice.
It states that going to Ukraine to fight, or to assist others engaged in the conflict, may be against the law and could lead to prosecution.
Another issue is that the UK has limited consular support in Ukraine, and is unlikely to be able to offer assistance to anyone in the country.
It is understood that UK defence chiefs are keenly aware of the desire among people back home who want to help the Ukrainians after the Russian invasion, but the only support they can provide is defensive in nature.
The UK is working with its allies to provide a range of support to Ukraine, including to enhance that nation’s defence capability.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who served in the Scots Guards, has previously urged Britons not to travel to Ukraine to join the fighting as he said the “very dangerous” situation could lead to them being killed.
Mr Wallace has said he does not “want to see British people killed any more than I want to see Ukrainians” dying after Foreign Secretary Liz Truss earlier said she would “absolutely” support British nationals who chose to go to help fight against the Russian invasion.
Downing Street later effectively contradicted Ms Truss, as Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said: “We think the best way we can help Ukraine right now is by ensuring Putin fails.
“There are a number of ways Brits can show their support for that, and the Ukrainian embassy in London is putting out information about how British people can support.
“We fully recognise the strength of feeling about British people wanting to support the Ukrainians following the Russian invasion. There’s advice up on travelling to Ukraine, we currently advise against travel to Ukraine.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)
08 Mar 22. Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby on Security Assistance to Ukraine. We are now in contact with the Polish government following the statement issued today. As we have said, the decision about whether to transfer Polish-owned planes to Ukraine is ultimately one for the Polish government. We will continue consulting with our Allies and partners about our ongoing security assistance to Ukraine, because, in fact, Poland’s proposal shows just some of the complexities this issue presents. The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America” departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance. It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it. We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one. (Source: US DoD)
09 Mar 22. Ukraine conflict: Impact on military aircraft programmes managed by Ukraine in Asia. Ukrainian Antonov legacy transport aircraft are widely in use with military operators around the world, while Motor Sich engines power a few legacy Russian military helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, such as the old Aero Vodochody L-39 trainer/light attack aircraft and more modern Hongdu Aviation Industry Group Corporation (HAIC) L‐15 jet trainers.
State-owned defence conglomerate UkrOboronProm (UOP), of which Antonov is part, is also involved in a series of maintenance and upgrade programmes of Russian-made platforms operated by South Asian armed forces.
The conflict in Ukraine will likely affect the supply of parts and kits to sustain ageing Antonov aircraft, as well as of engines and upgrades to different aircraft types managed by UOP and its export entities, especially in Asia. (Source: Janes)
08 Mar 22. U.S. Intel Officials Detail Threats From China, Russia. Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, discussed the intelligence community’s assessment of China and Russia — America’s strategic competitors — during testimony before Congress this morning. Haines told the House Intelligence Committee that China “remains an unparalleled priority for the intelligence community.”
She said China is coming ever closer to being a peer competitor to the United States economically, militarily and technologically.
“China is especially effective at bringing together a coordinated whole of government approach to demonstrate its strength, and to compel neighbors to acquiesce to its preferences, including its territorial and maritime claims and assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan,” she told the House panel. “President Xi Jinping and China’s other leaders are determined to force unification with Taiwan on Beijing’s turns.”
While China would prefer to avoid an armed conflict, Chinese leaders have stepped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on the island. “At the same time, Beijing is preparing to use military force if it decides this is necessary,” she said.
She noted that China is also engaged in its largest ever nuclear force expansion and arsenal diversification effort in its history. The Chinese want to match or exceed U.S. capabilities in space. The nation also presents “the broadest, most active and persistent cyber espionage threat to U.S. government and private sector networks,” she said.
Russia also remains a focus of the intelligence community, deservedly so in light of Vladimir Putin’s “recent and tragic invasion of Ukraine, which has produced a shock to the geopolitical order with implications for the future that we are only beginning to understand, but are sure to be consequential,” she said.
The intelligence community provided ample warning of Putin’s plans, and U.S. officials shared this intelligence with the world. “This is a case where I think all of us wish we had been wrong,” Haines said. “The invasion has in fact proceeded consistent with the plan we assessed the Russian military would follow.”
Haines said Putin did not expect the ferocious defense by Ukraine, nor did he expect the unified and fast response by the world.
“Russia’s failure to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces has deprived Moscow of the quick military victory probably had originally expected would prevent the United States and NATO from being able to provide meaningful military aid to Ukraine,” she said. “Moreover, we assess Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues.”
Even if Putin ignores the condemnation of the world and the increasingly effective sanctions directed against Russia “it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv in the face of what we assess is likely to be a persistent and significant insurgency,” she said.
Haines said the Russian and Ukrainian militaries have probably suffered thousands of casualties, along with numerous civilian deaths. “Moreover, Russian forces are at the very least operating with reckless disregard for the safety of non-combatants,” Haines said.
She criticized Russia for shelling civilian sites and launching missiles into the hearts of Ukrainian cities. She also specifically pointed out the Russian attack on a nuclear power plant as the height of disdain for civilian safety.
The West’s unified response to Russian aggression almost certainly surprised Moscow. “In particular, while Putin probably anticipated many of the current sanctions to be imposed when he weighed the cost of the invasion, we judge that he did not anticipate either the degree to which the United States and its allies and partners would take steps to undermine his capacity to mitigate Western actions,” she said. Putin also did not anticipate the pullback from Russia by private sector actors.
Still, the intelligence community assesses that Putin will escalate — “essentially doubling down” — to achieve Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO if it doesn’t reach some diplomatic negotiation, the director said.
“We assess Putin feels aggrieved, the West does not give him proper deference and perceive this as a war he cannot afford to lose,” she said. “But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time, given the significant costs he is incurring.” (Source: US DoD)
08 Mar 22. Russian Invaders Crash Into Ukrainian Resistance. With almost all the Russian forces that amassed on Ukraine’s borders now within the country, the wave of Russian invaders continues to crash on the rocks of Ukrainian resistance, said a senior defense official speaking on background.
Overall, Russian progress in the north to take Kyiv is stalled, while President Vladimir Putin’s forces in the south are making some progress, the official said.
“Near Kyiv, we still observe that Russian forces have not moved closer to the city center,” the official said. “The closest they’ve been able to get is the airport.”
Russian forces are trying to attack Kyiv from the east. “We estimate that they’re about 60 kilometers or so from the city,” the official said. “So they’re still further away than the main advance coming down on the north.”
In the south, Mariupol is “isolated” but still fighting, and the official said it appears the Russians are looking to attack the port city of Odesa from the landward side. This could be joined by an amphibious attack as the Russians have 11 amphibious ships in the region.
The official said it does not appear that Putin is ordering in troops or capabilities from other parts of Russia for the invasion. He noted that the Russians have a lot of combat power in Ukraine. The Russian troops invading Ukraine are afflicted by poor morale, and logistics and sustainment problems. He said the Russians did not expect the ferocious defense by the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian civilians. Ten days into the invasion, the Russian forces appear to be behind their timetable for conquest.
Russian long-range artillery and missiles (they have now fired nearly 670 missiles into Ukraine) are regularly hitting civilian areas, the official said. The United Nations now estimates 1.4 million Ukrainians have fled the country with many thousands more internally displaced.
There is no estimate on military casualties or civilian deaths.
The official said the skies over Ukraine are still contested.
U.S. military aid is reaching the Ukrainian military. “We have in just the last year provided a billion dollars worth of security assistance to the Ukrainians of a both lethal and non-lethal variety,” the official said.
He also noted that the $350m in lethal aid approved just over a week ago, “is nearly completely delivered, which is an unbelievable level of speed to get that into their hands.” (Source: US DoD)