Ukraine Conflict Update – 14 April

Ukraine Conflict Update – 14 April

Military and hard security developments

• The war in Ukraine has now entered its 50th day since the launch of the invasion, though there has been little in the way of major frontline movements over the past week. Nevertheless, Russian forces continue to concentrate across the east, with a slight uptick in fighting along key points west of Izyum and west of Donetsk city ahead of the anticipated Donbas offensive. The Russian Ministry of Defence have also claimed that a further 134 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered in Mariupol overnight, following the claims of over 1,000 marines surrendering the day before.  At the moment Russian troops are launching probing operations against certain strategic areas.  There is no indication as to when the assault will commence or whether it will be on a broad or narrow front.
• If Ukraine could hold on to Mykolaiv it is of huge strategic importance as it retains access to the sea and also would require Russia to deploy 4 -5 Battlegroups from the Donbas front.
• The most notable event over the last 24 hours was nevertheless the disablement of the Moskva in the northern Black Sea. Ukrainian forces claimed to have struck the Slava-class cruiser, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, with Neptun anti-ship cruise missiles, though Russia maintains that a fire caused a massive ammunition explosion. The ship’s crew were also reportedly evacuated safety and the vessel is being towed back to port, with the Russians maintaining that it remains afloat – a status confirmed by the Pentagon, though they cannot yet ascertain whether a missile had caused the damage. While the ship does not appear to have sunk, the fact that the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship sustained such heavy damage and is now effectively out of the war marks one of the most dramatic hits to Russian prestige since the invasion began. It will likely mean Russian surface warships will be forced to be more cautious when operating near the Ukrainian coast, but will do little to limit the launch of naval-launched cruise missiles against targets across Ukraine.

• Ukraine used the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile developed by Luch Design Bureau. Neptune’s design is based on the Soviet Kh-35 anti-ship missile, with substantially improved range and electronics. The system is designed to defeat surface warships and transport vessels with a displacement of up to 5,000 tons, either in convoys or moving individually. The system entered service with the Ukrainian Navy in March 2021. The missile was first revealed in the “Weapons and Security 2015” exhibition in Kyiv. According to information from open sources, the first flight samples of the cruise missile were manufactured in the spring of 2016. Production of advanced missile systems took place in cooperation with other Ukrainian enterprises, including Artem Luch GAhK, Kharkiv State Aviation Plant [uk], Motor Sich (MS-400 turbofan engine), Pivdenne YuMZ PivdenMash, Lviv LORTA and other radar electronics, Vyshneve ZhMZ Vizar Kiev, and others. The first tests of the system were conducted on March 22, 2016, attended by Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov. In mid-2017, Neptune missiles were tested concurrently with trials of the Vilkha missile complex. However, unlike the Vilkha, the test results and capabilities of the Neptune were not publicized. According to the press service of the NSDC, the first successful flight tests of the system took place on January 30, 2018. On August 17, 2018, the missile successfully hit a target at a range of 100 kilometres (62 mi) during test firings in southern Odesa Oblast.^[7] On April 6, 2019, the missile was again successfully tested, hitting targets during tests near Odesa. According to President Petro Poroshenko, Neptune system would be delivered to the Ukrainian military in December 2019. After the withdrawal of both the United States and the Russian Federation from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Ukraine announced that it was considering developing intermediate-range cruise missiles. Analysts considered an extended-range Neptune missile to be a candidate for such an effort. Ukraine signed a memorandum with Indonesia on concluding a contract for the supply of a number of Neptune missiles, first reported in December 2020. Thus, Indonesia may become the first foreign buyer of Neptune, according to Defense Express with reference to the Ukrainian special exporter State Enterprise (SE) “Progress”. In March 2021, the Ukrainian Navy obtained the first units of the RK-360MC Neptune. (Source: Wikipedia)

• The US confirmed yesterday, 13 April, its new USD 800 million military package to Ukraine will include notable stocks of heavier equipment. These will include: 300 switchblade UAVs, 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles, 200 M113 armoured personnel carriers (APCs), 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 18 115mm howitzers together with 40,000 rounds of ammunition, as well as CBRN protective equipment and various small arms. The list of equipment marks a notable step up in terms of the lethality of equipment so far provided to Ukraine, and follows the provision of T-72 tanks from the Czech Republic, S-300 air defence systems from Slovakia and armoured fighting vehicles from the UK and Australia.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

• Following announcements from both Sweden and Finland yesterday that indicated likely applications to join NATO this summer, the Kremlin has threated to deploy nuclear weapons to the Baltic in response. Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, stated on 13 April that in the event of Swedish and Finnish NATO membership there would be “no talk of non-nuclear status for the Baltic”, indicating that Iskander ballistic missile systems, hypersonic weapons and nuclear-capable naval vessels could be deployed in the region. Ultimately, however, Russia already retains significant nuclear capabilities in the region, particularly in Kaliningrad, and so the threat is likely primarily rhetorical at this stage.
• Membership of NATO would bring both Sweden and Finland under the alliance’s nuclear umbrella, though the stationing of NATO nuclear weapons in those countries would remain highly unlikely. Nevertheless, Medvedev’s statement and any potential NATO application by Helsinki and Stockholm mean the permanent stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is now even more likely going forward, with Moscow likely to use such deployments to illustrate a response to an expansion of NATO. In a related development, Russian state media reported today, 14 April, that the Pacific Fleet had conducted a successful launch of Kalibr cruise missiles from the Sea of Japan. With the AUKUS alliance announcing last week intentions to develop their own hypersonic missile systems, such developments underline increasing arms competition across the planet in response to the war in Ukraine.

Economic/business environment developments

• On 13 April President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is looking into alternative markets for its energy exports, as import bans and long-term divestment amongst European states jeopardises Russia’s revenue streams. Russia has already offered cheap oil exports to India, where Russia has a long history of cooperation in the civil nuclear industry. Other key markets will include China, with whom a large natural gas contract was signed just days before the invasion of Ukraine, as Russia looks to shore-up its long-term revenue even as numerous EU states remain resistant to sanctioning Russian oil and especially natural gas imports.
• Notably, the European Commission yesterday, 13 April, reportedly warned EU member states that Putin’s demand for “unfriendly nations” to pay for Russian gas in rubles would constitute a violation of sanctions. The warning is likely directed at Hungary, which has already indicated its willingness to switch to ruble payments, but is also likely directed at European firms more generally, given that it ultimately rests upon these companies to decide how they will continue purchasing Russian gas. The Dutch government have today, 14 April, reportedly instructed their firms not to pay in rubles, following the EU’s advice. Putin is scheduled to hold an energy meeting today, 14 April, where further clarification on his demands for payment in rubles may be offered, but it is clear that the EU is firmly opposed to any change in contractual payment procedures.
• It remains unclear whether the Gazprombank workaround, where an account is established to pay in euros or dollars and then converted into rubles, would be viewed as circumventing sanctions, and so the risk of Russia restricting gas supplies to those who do not pay in rubles remains an enduring threat. Economic institutes advising the German government warned on 13 April that in the event of an immediate interruption to Russian energy supplies, it could cost the German economy EUR 220 billion in lost output over two years. They furthermore stated that a full halt in Russian natural gas imports would result in a “sharp recession” for the country, underlining the deep cost of such a move for the industry-reliant German economy. Given this cost, it remains likely that Berlin will continue opposing oil and gas embargos, despite enduring pressure from Kyiv and the international community to do so.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

• Considering the withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kyiv, the security situation in and around the capital has moderately improved as of 14 April. The H01/P01 and the E95 are the most viable routes from Kyiv. The E40 highway was declared ‘open’ for Kyiv-Lviv traffic last week by Ukrainian authorities, however, the E40 and the E373 remain heavily congested by wreckage, with substantial damage to the highway itself including significant potholes from air/missile strikes and artillery shelling, particularly in the vicinity of Makariv, approx. 70km west of Kyiv and directly adjacent to the E40. Therefore, although travel on this route should be relatively safe, there may be delays as road-clearing continues. Air raid warnings across western Ukraine – notably in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv – highlight that the threat of air attacks remain high in western Ukraine, therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes.
• Ukraine’s State Emergency Service has stated that demining operations continue in Buchansky, Brovarsky and Boryspil, although the wider area around Kyiv to the north, north-west and north-east is at high risk for mines and unexploded ordnance. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that de-occupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
• It is highly likely that ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian units will continue to take place on routes around and in Kyiv in the coming days and weeks, and those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution. The curfew in Irpin currently in place will last until 0900 local time on 15 April.
• Between Dnipro and Kyiv, we recommend the westbound H08 along the river until Kremenchuk and then the E50 through Oleksandriya and Uman to the E95 and the H01 to Kyiv. This route is currently the safest to Dnipro but takes approximately 90 minutes longer than alternative routes. We would advise that due to missile strikes earlier today on a railway station at Piatykhatky in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, the H08 northbound to Kremenchuk should be chosen over the E50 between Dnipro and Oleksandriya.
• Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to RU military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is in close proximity to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. On 14 April, Russia has claimed that it struck Dnipro airfield in an air attack, in the vicinity of the H08 route, underlining extreme security risks in the region. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present. Due to ongoing civilian evacuations from Zaporizhzhia, we assess that there will be substantial delays on both routes.
• On 14 April, no evacuation trains are running from Slovyansk train station from the Donbas. Evacuation from Pokrovsk continues at the time of reporting.
• In Kharkiv, all exits face substantial risk of shelling and missile strikes, and the situation changes nearly hourly. Due to strikes on civilian residential areas near the M18 we are currently recommending the westbound M03 in the direction of Poltava.
• The risk of a Russian air strike, missile attack or bomb attack on the western Ukrainian city of Uzhorod increased on 8 April following the announcement by Slovakia that it is donating its S-300 air defence system to Ukraine. The Slovakian MOD has stated in March that it has actionable intelligence on the targeting of Uzhorod International Airport by Russian assets and advised extreme caution around the airport. The agreement by the Slovakian MOD to acquire the US PATRIOT missile system – thereby allowing it to transfer the S-300 missile defence system to Ukraine – will likely trigger a retaliatory move by Russia on Uzhorod.

FORECAST

Ahead of the anticipated offensive in the Donbas, the Russian Ministry of Defence today threatened to strike Ukrainian “command centres” in Kyiv in retaliation for a spate of attacks across the border in Russia. Defence spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov cited the uptick in Ukrainian sabotage operations in recent days, the first time the Russian military has acknowledged such attacks on Russian facilities. For example, earlier this week a railway was partly destroyed in Belgorod, an attack highly likely to undermine Russian efforts to reinforce the Izyum front ahead of the Donbas offensive.

Konashenkov stated that in response Russian forces will strike targets that it had previously refrained from targeting, including decision-making centres in Kyiv. As a result, further Ukrainian special operations inside Russia are likely to trigger reprisal attacks, most likely long-range strikes against government buildings and military command centres. This serves as a potent reminder that all areas of Ukraine remain vulnerable to the threat of long-range cruise and ballistic missile strikes, with government buildings and command centres joining other high-priority targets, including fuel depots, food and ammunition stores, airports and railway infrastructure. The offensive in the Donbas could be launched at any point, and given the embarrassing loss of the Moskva today, Russian commanders will be under increasing pressure to achieve clear and quick results during the offensive. As such, the threat of more brutal tactics being employed in the east in the coming month, including CBRN use following their possible low-level use in Mariupol, will remain heightened.

• Russian operations in the Donbas have picked up slightly in tempo, particularly near Severodonetsk and north-west of Donetsk city, towards Avdiivka. Forces south of Izyum also appear to have widened their bridgehead to the west, giving another potential line of attack on the railway station at Barvinkove, or an option to push back Ukrainian forces currently blocking any Russian advance from Balakliya. Otherwise, the majority of operations have continued to be in the form of air and artillery strikes across the region, including intense shelling of Kharkiv.
• The most significant event occurred at sea, where the Slava-class cruiser Moskva – flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and one of the largest Russian surface warships – has been lost due to a catastrophic fire, almost certainly following military action. While reportedly still afloat and being towed back to Crimea, the crew has fully evacuated and undoubtedly the ship will be effectively a write off, with Russian shipyards at present generally unable to operate due to sanctions.
• The Moskva is an elderly ex-Soviet design. Although the Slava-class are imposing, Russia’s more numerous modern frigates are in many ways more capable. They have also been largely responsible for the cruise missile attacks against strategic land targets which have reached into the centre and west of the country. By contrast, Moskva’s value was as a prestige item, with capable anti-ship and strategic anti-air defences. The cruiser therefore fulfilled a role in an anti-access/area-denial strategy for land and sea operations.
• The cruiser had been operating in predictable patterns for weeks in the north-west Black Sea, almost always without escorts. While there are other explanations (including striking a mine or an accident on board), Ukrainian forces claim that this was a successful attack, using a TB2 drone for targeting of two Neptun anti-ship cruise missiles. This appears reasonably credible, albeit there is little further information available. If a drone was indeed used, then footage may yet appear. The domestically designed Neptun system was due to enter service last month, but so far had not appeared in the conflict. They are based on the Soviet K-35, a proven design, but with improved range and electronic systems. These were reportedly fired from the coast between Odesa and Mykolaiv, which would match the range and operational area of the Moskva when hit.
• These missiles are analogous to the Falklands-era Exocet, and slightly smaller than the Harpoon system. Trials have previously suggested that 4-5 hits would have been required to destroy a cruiser of this size, so the incident points to poor damage control and possibly a catastrophic ammunition explosion. The incident therefore points to the further poor competence level of the Russian military, not least as the ship had the weapon systems to defend itself effectively.
• While not in fact a significant military setback, this will likely drive Russian warships to exercise more caution near the coast. This will stop amphibious posturing towards Odesa, but not the cruise missile attacks. It will almost certainly lead to suspicions that NATO intelligence drove this event (as it may well have), especially as the US formally acknowledged yesterday that it was providing direct intelligence support to enable precision targeting by Ukrainian forces. Given the blow to prestige, the potential loss of life not least while abandoning ship in a storm, and the humiliation of failing to protect the asset against Ukrainian attack, sentiments in Moscow will likely be running high.
• Rhetoric was already heightened in the last 24 hours, with Russia threatening to strike NATO assets if found in Ukraine – largely a meaningless threat, other than for French investigators in Bucha, and something that would already be expected. This was more specifically aimed at supplies being brought into the country, but the threat has not extended to NATO convoys for Ukraine wherever they may be – which would be a highly concerning escalation.
• The Kremlin also threatened to strike “senior decision-making facilities” in Ukraine, meaning at the leadership. Taken in conjunction with the other threat to NATO, this could also be a reflection of the visits of senior NATO leaders, with the Baltic States and Poland being the latest to visit President Zelensky in Kyiv. Again, this is not a new risk, but the continued rhetoric has meaning.
• Most potentially concerning is a risk that air operations will be significantly increased, including a move towards more strategic bombing. While this would pose significant risks to Russia’s most prestige assets, which have so far largely just launched stand-off strikes, an increase in electronic warfare deployment may mean larger raids are attempted on Ukrainian cities. Kharkiv will remain most vulnerable to this tactic, which is harder for Russians to accomplish in the west of Ukraine due to still functioning air defences.
• This also comes alongside an assessment from intercepted communications that Putin has ordered Russian forces to raze anything that cannot be captured by May 9 – the day of the victory parades. This reinforces the ticking clock behind current operations, with a requirement for Russia’s military to deliver at least acceptable success by this point.
• Overall, the last 24 hours has shown that Ukraine continues to use its military and intelligence support from NATO to great effect. Its continuing agility is shown by ongoing special forces operations around Izyum and even over the border into Russia itself, which are significantly hampering the Russian build-up around Donbas, and driving anxiety in border areas. Protracted defence of the Azovstal plant is also expected in Mariupol, although this factor and the context – especially with the loss of Moskva – makes escalation in tactics more likely, particularly towards CBRN use in selective areas.
• We therefore assess that Russia’s military leaders will now be under increasing pressure to get results, with results possibly including increased targeting of civilians and urban areas across Ukraine, as well as consideration of battlefield CBRN use. Increasing anger may also be focused at NATO, with a response sought for the loss of the Moskva and the increasingly direct and explicit military and intelligence support, and we will be looking for indications of this possibly emerging in statements today or tomorrow.

Armenia: Further progress in peace negotiations with Azerbaijan will risk triggering opposition-led unrest.

This week two opposition blocs in the Armenian parliament announced they would boycott the National Assembly in protest at the government’s handling of ongoing peace negotiations with Azerbaijan. Last week on 6 April, the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments made notable progress in talks, agreeing to cooperate on a future peace treaty aimed at resolving the decades-long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, opposition politicians in Armenia perceive that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is preparing “unacceptable” concessions to Azerbaijan, underlining that as further progress is made in peace talks, the more volatile the domestic situation inside Armenia is likely to become. While the boycott will have a limited impact given the ruling Civil Contract’s majority in parliament, the opposition could yet marshal protests and popular discontent in response to perceived concessions. As a result, further progress in talks in the coming months will remain key flashpoints for domestic tensions and unrest.

US: Critical infrastructure will face fresh threats targeting industrial control systems.

On 13 April, the US government released an advisory notice warning complex industrial control systems (ICS) of the capabilities of state-backed threat actors to hack multiple ICS’s using Pipedream, a new malware. The Department of Energy, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the National Security Agency, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued the joint Cybersecurity Advisory, highlighting the severity of the threat to US critical infrastructure. The Pipedream malware is understood to be able to infiltrate and manipulate many ICS devices, potentially allowing hackers to take control of compromised systems. Although the official notice did not link any specific country with Pipedream, cyber security experts attribute the malware to Russian advanced persistent threat groups (APT). The statement reaffirms the heightened threat that foreign —particularly Russian— state-linked hackers pose to US critical infrastructure, with ICS security specialists highlighting LNG plants as the most likely targets. The ongoing war in Ukraine fuels motives for Russian APTs to further disrupt energy supplies in the West. Strengthening monitoring programmes and installing multifactor authentication will help businesses to mitigate such threats.

Gulf-Iran: Energy deal will continue to foster regional instability, increasing the likelihood of Iran-backed proxy action.

On 13 April, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait invited Iran to hold negotiations to determine the eastern limit of a joint and energy-rich offshore area. Both Gulf monarchies seek to develop the Arash/Durra natural gas field, but Tehran claims the deal is illegal citing its own claim to the area. While the dispute remains a long-standing issue, the most recent development could lead to renewed tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. While the two oil-producing countries are increasingly seeking to diversify their economies, developments triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reinforced oil dependency, amid already volatile oil markets and protracted economic strains stemming from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Continued disagreement, and Tehran’s refusal to join negotiations, is likely to affect the initial thaw with Saudi Arabia, amid additional regional tensions stemming from ongoing nuclear talks. As such, a persistent threat of tit-for-tat hostilities and proxy action targeting critical infrastructure in the Kingdom remains, elevating business risks. (Source: Sibylline)

 

14 Apr 22. Viasat Partners with the Košice Region of Slovakia; Donates Satellite-Based High-Speed Internet to Ukrainian Refugees. Viasat Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT), a global communications company, and the Košice region, Slovakia, have partnered to provide free high-speed internet to Ukrainian refugees in Eastern Slovakia using Viasat’s proven satellite-enabled Community Internet system. Viasat Community Internet (VCI) sites are being installed across Eastern Slovakia in areas of greatest need for refugee connectivity.

Slovakia has embraced thousands of refugees daily since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. One of the major challenges refugees face when arriving in Slovakia is access to the internet for online news, digital tools and resources. Viasat’s high-speed Community Internet service provides an opportunity for refugees to communicate with loved ones and stay informed.  Additionally, the Company is working with local partners to ensure installations of its Community Internet service sites are meeting the refugees’ needs. This humanitarian effort is powered by the KA-SAT network which has provided satellite-based high-speed internet to thousands of Ukrainians for a decade.

The Viasat Community Internet service implements a public Wi-Fi hotspot connected and enabled by a Viasat satellite to deliver free high-speed internet service to these refugee communities that previously had little or no internet connectivity. The Viasat Community Internet service seeks to improve the quality of life of unserved and underserved individuals and families by giving them better access to online tools, resources and streaming video.

“Today we are demonstrating our mission to provide high-quality connectivity across the globe by helping Ukrainian refugees. By partnering with the Košice region, we can provide a much-needed resource to Ukrainians during this incredible time of need,” said Evan Dixon, president of global fixed broadband at Viasat. “Our satellite-based Community Internet service enables us to connect tens of thousands of refugees at no cost to them so they can access high-speed internet to remain connected to family and friends and follow current events.”

Rastislav Trnka, president of the Košice region, “The Košice region is at the front line of helping people of Ukraine, given that it is located in the immediate vicinity of the Ukraine-Slovakia border. Since the beginning of this conflict, we have been helping people driven from their homes by operating humanitarian warehouses, offering information points at borders and stations, providing free transport and accommodations in emergency facilities for war refugees and coordinating volunteers. So far, we have provided accommodations across emergency facilities to more than 5,500 residents of Ukraine. We welcome Viasat’s high-speed satellite internet which allows us provide an opportunity for refugees to immediately access critical information and communications.”

About Viasat

Viasat is a global communications company that believes everyone and everything in the world can be connected. For 35 years, Viasat has helped shape how consumers, businesses, governments and militaries around the world communicate. Today, the Company is developing the ultimate global communications network to power high-quality, secure, affordable, fast connections to impact people’s lives anywhere they are—on the ground, in the air or at sea. To learn more about Viasat, visit: www.viasat.com, go to Viasat’s Corporate Blog, or follow the Company on social media at: Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter or YouTube.

 

14 Apr 22. US says Ukrainian troops need training to use new military capabilities. The Ukrainian forces are expected to need training on the Howitzer system, radar systems, and Claymore mines, among others.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) has said that the Ukrainian forces may need some training to use the new military capabilities being sent as defensive aid to the embattled country.

This comes after the US administration announced an additional $800m in security assistance for Ukraine. The authorisation marked the seventh drawdown of equipment for Ukraine from DoD stocks since August last year.

The military package includes 18 155mm Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds, ten AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars, two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars, 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, and 11 Mi-17 helicopters, among others.

It also includes 300 Switchblade Tactical Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS), 500 Javelin missiles, other anti-armour systems, M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions, laser rangefinders, body armour, and helmets.

The DoD anticipates that the Ukrainian forces will need training on the Howitzer system, the two radar systems, and the Claymore mines, as well as the optics and laser rangefinders.

The training is expected to follow the ‘train-the-trainer’ approach to minimise the impact on the ongoing conflict. Under this approach, a small number of soldiers will be trained to use the systems and then they will be sent back to train others.

The DoD previously employed the same approach to training the Ukrainian troops in the US to use the Switchblade drone systems.

Pentagon press secretary John F Kirby said that the US has already started working to send the newly authorised military equipment to the Ukrainian military.

Kirby said: “As you’ve seen [it] go in the past, from the time the president authorises drawdown until the first shipments actually start landing in the region can be as little as four to five days, and then another couple of days once they’re there to get processed and actually in the hands of Ukrainian frontline forces.”

The US has committed $2.6bn in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched an invasion on the country. Last week, the US administration authorised the sending of additional Javelin missiles to the nation.

In a separate development, Russia said that its flagship vessel of its Black Sea fleet, the Moskva missile cruiser, was damaged following an explosion. A Ukrainian official later told Reuters that the ship was hit by two Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

13 Apr 22. Russia has yet to slow a Western arms express into Ukraine. Western weaponry pouring into Ukraine helped blunt Russia’s initial offensive and seems certain to play a central role in the approaching, potentially decisive, battle for Ukraine’s contested Donbas region. Yet the Russian military is making little headway halting what has become a historic arms express.

The U.S. numbers alone are mounting: more than 12,000 weapons designed to defeat armored vehicles, some 1,400 shoulder-fired Stinger missiles to shoot down aircraft and more than 50 million rounds of ammunition, among many other things. Dozens of other nations are adding to the totals.

The Biden administration is preparing yet another, more diverse, package of military support possibly totaling $750m to be announced in the coming days, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans not yet publicly announced. The additional aid is a sign that the administration intends to continue expanding its support for Ukraine’s war effort.

These armaments have helped an under-gunned Ukrainian military defy predictions that it would be quickly overrun by Russia. They explain in part why Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army gave up, at least for now, its attempt to capture Kyiv, the capital, and has narrowed its focus to battling for eastern and southern Ukraine.

Pallets of ammunition, weapons and other equipment bound for Ukraine are loaded on a plane by members from the 436th Aerial Port Squadron during a foreign military sales mission at Dover Air Force Base, Del., on Jan. 30, 2022. (Senior Airman Stephani Barge/U.S. Air Force via AP)

U.S. officials and analysts offer numerous explanations for why the Russians have had so little success interdicting Western arms moving overland from neighboring countries, including Poland. Among the likely reasons: Russia’s failure to win full control of Ukraine’s skies has limited its use of air power. Also, the Russians have struggled to deliver weapons and supplies to their own troops in Ukraine.

Some say Moscow’s problem begins at home.

“The short answer to the question is that they are an epically incompetent army badly led from the very top,” said James Stavridis, a retired U.S. Navy admiral who was the top NATO commander in Europe from 2009 to 2013.

The Russians also face practical obstacles. Robert G. Bell, a longtime NATO official and now a professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech University, said the shipments lend themselves to being hidden or disguised in ways that can make them elusive to the Russians — “short of having a network of espionage on the scene” to pinpoint the convoys’ movements.

“It’s not as easy to stop this assistance flow as it might seem,” said Stephen Biddle, a professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University. “Things like ammunition and shoulder-fired missiles can be transported in trucks that look just like any other commercial truck. And the trucks carrying the munitions the Russians want to interdict are just a small part of a much larger flow of goods and commerce moving around in Poland and Ukraine and across the border.

“So the Russians have to find the needle in this very big haystack to destroy the weapons and ammo they’re after and not waste scarce munitions on trucks full of printer paper or baby diapers or who knows what.”

Even with this Western assistance it’s uncertain whether Ukraine will ultimately prevail against a bigger Russian force. The Biden administration has drawn the line at committing U.S. troops to the fight. It has opted instead to orchestrate international condemnation and economic sanctions, provide intelligence information, bolster NATO’s eastern flank to deter a wider war with Russia and donate weapons.

In mid-March, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said arms shipments would be targeted.

“We warned the United States that pumping weapons into Ukraine from a number of countries as it has orchestrated isn’t just a dangerous move but an action that turns the respective convoys into legitimate targets,” he said in televised remarks.

But thus far the Russians appear not to have put a high priority on arms interdiction, perhaps because their air force is leery of flying into Ukraine’s air defenses to search out and attack supply convoys on the move. They have struck fixed sites like arms depots and fuel storage locations, but to limited effect.

On Monday, the Russians said they destroyed four S-300 surface-to-air missile launchers that had been given to Ukraine by an unspecified European country. Slovakia, a NATO member that shares a border with Ukraine, donated just such a system last week but denied it had been destroyed. On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said long-range missiles were used to hit two Ukrainian ammo depots.

As the fighting intensifies in the Donbas and perhaps along the coastal corridor to the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, Putin may feel compelled to strike harder at the arms pipeline, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called vital to his nation’s survival.

In the meantime, a staggering volume and range of war materiel is arriving almost daily.

“The scope and speed of our support to meeting Ukraine’s defense needs are unprecedented in modern times,” said John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary. He said the approximately $2.5bn in weapons and other material that has been offered to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration is equivalent to more than half of Ukraine’s normal defense budget.

One example: The Pentagon says it has provided more than 5,000 Javelin missiles, which are among the world’s most effective weapons against tanks and other armored vehicles — and can even take down a low-flying helicopter. The missile, shaped like a clunky dumb bell and weighing 50 pounds (23 kilograms), is fired by an individual soldier; from its launch tube it flies up at a steep angle and descends directly onto its target in what its known as a curveball shot — hitting the top of a tank where its armor is weakest.

The specific routes used to move the U.S. and other Western materials into Ukraine are secret for security reasons, but the basic process is not. Just this week, two U.S. military cargo planes arrived in Eastern Europe with items ranging from machine guns and small arms ammunition to body armor and grenades, the Pentagon said.

A similar load is due later this week to complete delivery of $800 million in assistance approved by President Joe Biden just one month ago. The weapons and equipment are offloaded, moved onto trucks and driven into Ukraine by Ukrainian soldiers for delivery. Kirby said the material sometimes reaches troops in the field within 48 hours of entering Ukraine. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/AP)

 

13 Apr 22. $800m in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby: This afternoon, April 13, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to an additional $800m tailored to meet urgent Ukrainian needs for today’s fight as Russian forces shift the focus of their ruthless aggression to eastern Ukraine. This authorization is the seventh drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Capabilities in this package include:

• 18 155mm Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds;
• Ten AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars;
• Two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars;
• 300 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• 500 Javelin missiles and thousands of other anti-armor systems;
• 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
• 100 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
• 11 Mi-17 helicopters;
• Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
• Medical equipment;
• 30,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
• Over 2,000 optics and laser rangefinders;
• C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing; and
• M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions configured to be consistent with the Ottawa Convention.

The United States has now committed more than $3.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $2.6 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked invasion on February 24.  The United States also continues to work with its Allies and partners to identify and provide Ukraine with additional capabilities.  The United States will continue to utilize all available tools to support Ukraine’s Armed Forces in the face of Russian aggression. (Source: US DoD)

 

13 Apr 22. Readout of Roundtable Meeting With Prime Contractor CEOs on Ukraine Security Assistance. Pentagon Spokesman Eric Pahon provided the following readout: Deputy Secretary of Defense Dr. Kathleen H. Hicks; Mr. Andrew Hunter, Performing the Duties of Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment; and other senior Department of Defense leaders held a classified meeting with the Chief Executive Officers of the department’s eight largest prime contractors today at the Pentagon to discuss ongoing security assistance to Ukraine and long-term readiness of U.S., Allied and partner forces.

They included: Boeing Defense, Space & Security; L3Harris Technologies; Raytheon Technologies; BAE Systems; Lockheed Martin Corporation; Huntington Ingalls Industries; General Dynamics; and Northrop Grumman.

Deputy Secretary Hicks delivered opening comments, highlighting that the Biden Administration is working around the clock to fulfill Ukraine’s priority security assistance requests, drawing down weapons from U.S. stocks when they are available, purchasing directly from industry for rapid delivery to Ukraine, and facilitating the transfer of weapons from Allies and partners when their systems better suit Ukraine’s needs.

The deputy secretary emphasized how Russia’s invasion has highlighted the importance of frequent, direct dialogue with industry to ensure we are prepared to support three strategic objectives:

• Delivering critical capabilities to Ukraine;
• Enhancing the preparedness of our own forces; and
• Supporting our Allies and partners in bolstering their defense capabilities.

The dialogue focused on accelerating the production and fielding of systems that are critical to the Department’s ongoing security assistance to Ukraine, as well as broader efforts to increase the readiness of U.S., Ally, and partner forces. Department leaders sought to understand what challenges large companies in the defense industrial base faced in accelerating fielding of critical capabilities, and how the Department might be able to alleviate these issues.

Following the deputy’s remarks, Mr. Hunter and other senior acquisition, sustainment and policy leaders moderated the roundtable portion, which focused primarily on accelerating production and building more capacity across the industrial base for weapons and equipment that can be exported rapidly, deployed with minimal training, and prove effective in the battlefield.

Further discussion covered capabilities within various portfolios, including: air defense, anti-armor, anti-personnel, coastal defense, counter-battery, and communications.

Since 2021, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III and Deputy Secretary of Defense Dr. Kathleen Hicks have engaged with more than 200 industry leaders as a part of a persistent, open communication strategy to advance the Department’s understanding of industry priorities and challenges. (Source: US DoD)

 

13 Apr 22. Howitzers, Helicopters, Humvees Headed to Ukraine. An additional $800 million drawdown package of security assistance is on its way to Ukraine. Efforts to get the newly authorized equipment and supplies to the Ukrainian military will begin immediately, said Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby.

“As you’ve seen go in the past, from the time the president authorizes drawdown until the first shipments actually start landing in the region can be as little as four to five days and then another couple of days once they’re there to get processed and actually in the hands of Ukrainian frontline forces,” Kirby said.

The Defense Department is still delivering equipment from the last $800 million package for Ukraine, and Kirby said that’ll likely be complete by the middle of this month. But the shipment of new equipment will begin immediately, he said.

“We’re not going to wait,” he said. “We’re going to start getting these articles on the way, as well. So, we will literally start right away.”

This most recent authorization is the seventh drawdown of equipment from DOD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021, Kirby said. About $2.6 billion in security assistance has been provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24.

According to Kirby, the array of equipment that will be sent to Ukraine as part of the new drawdown package is broad. It includes 18 155 mm Howitzers, along with 40,000 artillery rounds. Also included are the AN/TPQ-36 counterartillery and AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radar systems.

To move Ukrainian troops around the battlefield, the package includes 100 armored Humvee vehicles, 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, and 11 Mi-17 helicopters. The helicopters will augment the five Mi-17 helicopters sent to Ukraine earlier this year.

Additional Switchblade drones, Javelin missiles, medical equipment, body armor and helmets, optics and laser rangefinders, and M18A1 Claymore mines are also included in the package.

“Some of are reinforcing capabilities that we have already been providing Ukraine and some of them are new capabilities that we have not provided to Ukraine,” Kirby said. “All of them are designed to help Ukraine … in the fight that they are in right now.”

In addition to gear, the Department expects that there will need to be training provided as well. So far, much of what has been transferred to the Ukrainians have been systems they are already familiar with. An exception to that has been the Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial System. For those, the Department trained Ukrainian servicemembers who were already in the U.S. for other kinds of training, allowing them to train others upon their return home.

This latest round of security assistance includes new kinds of capabilities the Department believes the Ukrainians may need training on before putting it to use. That includes the Howitzer system, the two radar systems, and possible the optics and laser rangefinders as well as the Claymore mines. There may also be additional training for the Switchblade system.

Because the Ukrainians are in an ongoing fight, any training will likely follow a “train-the-trainer” approach, to ensure the least impact, Kirby said.

“We’re still working our way through what that’s going to look like, where, when, how many,” he said. “It’s more likely than not that what we would do, because they are in an active fight, is a ‘train-the-trainer’s’ program. So, pull a small number of Ukrainian forces out so that they can get trained on these systems and then send them back in.”

It’s also expected that specific types of troops will be trained on specific types of systems.

“It’ll likely be tailored,” he said. “We’ll pull troops out that, for instance, are artillerymen, to learn the Howitzer and then go back in and train their colleagues, rather than take an artilleryman and make them responsible for … training everybody on all these systems.”

Right now, it’s unclear where such training might occur, Kirby told reporters, though he said it might happen in “multiple locations.” Additionally, training on these systems by U.S. forces would likely happen with forces already in the region. (Source: US DoD)

 

14 Apr 22. Russia says blast cripples Black Sea flagship, Ukraine claims missile strike.

• Summary
• Moskva missile cruiser damaged after ammunition blew up
• Ukrainian official says vessel hit by missiles
• Zelenskiy warns of new Russian offensives to avenge defeats
• Fall of industrial area would give Russia control of port

Russia said on Thursday the flagship of its Black Sea fleet was seriously damaged and its crew evacuated following an explosion that a Ukrainian official said was the result of a missile strike.

Russia’s defence ministry said a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser caused ammunition to blow up, Interfax news agency reported.

It did not say what caused the fire but Maksym Marchenko, the Ukrainian governor of the region around the Black Sea port of Odesa, said the Moskva had been hit by two Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles.

“Neptune missiles guarding the Black Sea caused very serious damage,” he said in an online post.

Ukraine’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment and Reuters was unable to verify either side’s claims.

The Moskva is the second major ship known to have suffered serious damage since the start of the war. Last month Ukraine said it had destroyed a landing support ship, the Orsk, on the smaller Sea of Azov.

Russia’s navy has launched cruise missiles into Ukraine and its activities in the Black Sea are crucial to supporting land operations in the south of the country, where it is battling to seize full control of the port of Mariupol.

Russian news agencies said the Moskva, commissioned in 1983, was armed with 16 anti-ship Vulkan cruise missiles with a range of at least 700 km (440 miles).

Russia said 1,026 soldiers from Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade, including 162 officers, had surrendered in Mariupol and that the city was fully under its control. Ukraine’s defence ministry spokesman said he had no information about a surrender. read more

Capturing the Azovstal industrial district where the marines have been holed up would give Russia control of Ukraine’s main Sea of Azov port, reinforce a southern land corridor and expand its occupation of the country’s east.

“Russian forces are increasing their activities on the southern and eastern fronts, attempting to avenge their defeats,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Wednesday night video address.

Reuters journalists accompanying Russian-backed separatists saw flames billowing from the Azovstal area on Tuesday, a day after Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade said its troops had run out of ammunition.

The United States said on Wednesday it would send an extra $800 million worth of military hardware to Ukraine including artillery, armoured personnel carriers and helicopters. France and Germany also pledged more.

Senior U.S. officials are weighing whether to send a top cabinet member such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin Lloyd to Kyiv in a show of solidarity, a source familiar with the situation said.

Russia will view U.S. and NATO vehicles transporting weapons on Ukrainian territory as legitimate military targets, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the TASS news agency.

It will impose tit-for-tat sanctions on 398 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 87 Canadian senators, Interfax cited the foreign ministry as saying, after Washington targeted 328 members of Russia’s lower house of parliament.

Britain announced new financial measures on separatists, and Australia imposed targeted financial sanctions on 14 Russian state-owned enterprises on Thursday.

Fiji said it was investigating the arrival of the superyacht Amadea, owned by Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, who has been sanctioned by the United States, Britain and the European Union. r

‘LIBERATE US FROM WHAT?’

Ukraine says tens of thousands of people are believed to have been killed in Mariupol and accuses Russia of blocking aid convoys to civilians marooned there.

Its mayor, Vadym Boichenko, said Russia had brought in mobile crematoria “to get rid of evidence of war crimes” – a statement that was not possible to verify.

Moscow has blamed Ukraine for civilian deaths and accused Kyiv of denigrating Russian armed forces.

In the village of Lubianka northwest of Kyiv, from where Russian forces had tried and failed to subdue the capital before being driven away, a message to Ukrainians had been written on the wall of a house that had been occupied by Russian troops.

“We did not want this … forgive us,” it said.

The Kremlin says it launched a “special military operation” to demilitarise and “liberate” Ukraine from nationalist extremists, a message villagers said had been repeated to them by the Russian troops.

“To liberate us from what? We’re peaceful … We’re Ukrainians,” Lubianka resident Viktor Shaposhnikov said.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said on a visit to Kyiv with his Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian counterparts that those who had committed and ordered crimes must be brought to justice.

Germany’s president did not join them as he had planned. Zelenskiy denied a newspaper report he had rejected the visit due to Steinmeier’s recent good relations with Moscow.

BIDEN’S GENOCIDE COMMENTS

The Kremlin denounced President Joe Biden’s description of Moscow’s actions in Ukraine as amounting to genocide, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying this was unacceptable coming from the leader of a country he said had committed crimes of its own.

An initial report by a mission of experts set up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe documents a “catalogue of inhumanity” by Russian troops in Ukraine, according to the U.S. ambassador to the OSCE.

“This includes evidence of direct targeting of civilians, attacks on medical facilities, rape, executions, looting and forced deportation of civilians to Russia,” Michael Carpenter said.

Russia has denied targeting civilians.

The Kyiv district police chief said 720 bodies had been found in the region around the capital from where Russian forces had retreated, with more than 200 people missing. (Source: Reuters)

 

13 Apr 22. What armoured vehicles is the UK sending to Ukraine?

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey told Forces News “a few hundred” Ukrainian troops would come to the UK to train on the vehicles.

Earlier this week, the Armed Forces Minister confirmed to Forces News the UK would be sending a number of armoured vehicles to Ukraine.

James Heappey outlined a number of platforms, from personnel carriers to combat vehicles.

But which vehicles will Ukraine be receiving?

Combat Vehicle Reconnaissance (Tracked) – CVRT

Mr Heappey mentioned the UK would be sending 40 Combat Vehicle Reconnaissance (Tracked) vehicles to Ukraine.

The vehicles allow troops to travel around the battlefield, providing information 24 hours a day to commanders, according to the British Army’s website.

One example of a CVRT is the Scimitar armoured fighting vehicle and, with both low ground pressure and its small size, it is useful in hostile terrain.

It comes equipped with a 30mm Rarden cannon for self defence and is used by the Royal Armoured Corps.

Mr Heappey also said the UK would be sending 35 Spartan armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine.

The Spartan, a very small armoured personnel carrier, can transport four people, in addition to a crew of three, and is used to carry small specialised groups, such as reconnaissance teams.

Samaritan and Samson

The UK will also be sending Samaritan and Samson CVRT vehicles to Ukraine.

Both variants of CVRTs, the Samaritan is an armoured ambulance while the Samson is an armoured recovery vehicle.

Protected Patrol Vehicles

The Armed Forces Minister confirmed the UK would be sending “about 80 of the Afghanistan-era protected mobility vehicles” to Ukraine – including Mastiff, Wolfhound and Husky vehicles.

Mastiff

Mastiff, a heavily armoured 6×6 wheel-drive patrol vehicle, can carry eight troops as well as a two-person crew.

It has a maximum speed of 90 kmp/h and is armed with a 7.62mm machine-gun, 12.7mm heavy machine-gun or a 40mm automatic grenade launcher.

They are also equipped with Bowman radios and electronic countermeasures and are fitted with armour beyond the standard level, the British Army’s website says.

Wolfhound

A six-wheeled variant of the Mastiff, the Wolfhound is used to accompany frontline patrols and carry essential combat supplies like water and ammunition.It is armed with a 7.62 GPMG self defence weapon, can act as a gun tractor and gun limber for the British Army’s Royal Artillery’s 105 light gun and is equipped with the normal radio and electronic equipment.

Husky

A protected support vehicle, the Husky is described by the British Army as highly mobile and flexible. It is designed for a range of missions, including transporting food, water and ammunition but also as a command vehicle at headquarters. It is equipped with a machine-gun, but some vehicles can be fitted out as specialised recovery vehicles or with a heavy machine gun or grenade machine-gun. (Source: forces.net)

 

13 Apr 22. Multiple Factors Contribute to Ukraine’s Battlefield Successes. The United States is supplying an immense amount of materiel to Ukrainian forces, said a senior Defense Department official who briefed the media today.  Since the start President Joe Biden’s administration, roughly $2.5 billion worth of security assistance has been supplied. That equates to more than half of Ukraine’s defense budget for last year, which was about $4.2 billion, the official said.

“It’s an immense amount, and we’re committed to doing more; and I think you will see us do more very, very soon,” the official said, mentioning the most recent Javelin missiles and Switchblade unmanned aerial systems coming from the United States.

Some 30 other nations are also providing security assistance in various quantities, the official said.

Many nations have provided weapons and systems that the Ukrainians know how to use and are using effectively, the official said.

“I think there’s a lot of things that have gone into the Ukrainians’ ability thus far to fight so well and so skillfully and to really beat back the Russians on so many multiple lines of axes,” the official said.

Through their ability and will, Ukrainian fighters have adapted to Russian tactics in real time, the official said. “They are skilled and courageous fighters, and you just can’t take that away from them.”

Another factor for Ukraine’s successes is its command and control, the official said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his top leadership still have effective command and control over their forces. “They know where they are. They’re moving them around as needed. They’re being very nimble and have not had the challenges that the Russians have had with respect to command and control.”

An additional factor is that, over the last eight years, Ukraine has received excellent training from the United States and NATO allies like the United Kingdom and Canada, the official said.

That training has helped Ukraine become a more battlefield-effective force in terms of the development of their noncommissioned officer corps, operational maneuverability, logistics and sustainment, communications and long-range fires, the official said.

“United States security assistance has had a profound impact on their ability to continue to defend their country. We are the biggest donor, and we are providing the most material. We are not the only ones, though, and other countries are doing this as well. Some of them are being more open about what they’re providing. Some of them are providing terrific capabilities that they won’t talk about,” the official said.

These are countries that have systems, weapons and platforms that the Ukrainians are comfortable using and know how to use, the official added. “We wouldn’t have those in our stocks.”

Lastly, the United States is doing a lot of the coordination for the delivery of those materials and helping to get it into Ukrainian hands as quickly as possible, the official said. “It is a team effort.”

Situation on the Ground

The department continues to see movement and activity of Russian forces in Belarus and in Russia as they reassemble and stage their forces for what the DOD believes is going to be a renewed push into eastern Ukraine, the official said.

Besides troops, some of what is being staged includes helicopters and additional artillery, the official said.

The department believes that Valuyki, Belgorod and Rovenki — all in Russia just to the northeast of Ukraine — are staging and resupply areas, the official said.

Russian units are continuing to flow into Ukraine’s northern Luhansk Oblast, which is part of the Donbas Region, from areas around Valuyki and Rovenki, the official said.

Russian forces are also in Donetsk Oblast, further in the south of the Donbas Region, as well as further south in Ukraine near Mykolayiv and Mariupol, the official said.

A Russian convoy is still north of Izyum, Ukraine and there are also Russian forces to the south of that city, the official said.

There have been around 150 Russian-manned aircraft sorties flown over the last 24 hours, with airstrikes continuing to focus on Mariupol and the joint forces operations area of Ukraine, the official said.

“We still hold Mariupol as a contested city. We still hold that Ukrainian forces are in Mariupol and they’re defending it. … We still do not believe that the Russians have taken Mariupol, but clearly, they remain focused on that,” the official said.

At least 1,550 Russian missiles have been launched against Ukraine since the start of the invasion, the official mentioned. (Source: US DoD)

 

13 Apr 22. Are tanks to blame for Russian failures in Ukraine?

We examine why Russia has lost so many tanks and whether they are now obsolete in modern-day warfare.

Some of the most striking images of the Ukraine conflict have been the multiple Russian tanks that have been destroyed, abandoned or broken down.

The centrepiece of the Russian military for decades, their tanks were supposed to be imperious but it has been reported that hundreds of their tanks have now been destroyed.

But why and how have the Russians lost so many tanks and are they now obsolete in modern-day warfare?

• Chance for ‘Ukraine to smash Russian forces’, former US Army chief says
• How the UK might contribute lethal aid to Ukraine defence
• How Ukraine is outperforming Russia’s air force

It has been widely reported that a lot of these losses could be attributed to the success of the UK’s NLAW (next-generation light anti-armour weapon) and US-produced Javelin anti-tank weapons.

Last week, Ukraine’s armed forces reported that Russia had now lost more than 680 tanks.

However, the military and intelligence blog, Oryx, which created a detailed list of destroyed and captured vehicles – adding to their figures only when photographic or videographic evidence became available – credited Russia with losing more than 460 tanks.

Both sources conclude that hundreds have been lost, leading to further questioning on whether the weapons systems being sent by the UK and others are so good they render the Russian tanks useless.

Land warfare defence analyst Nicholas Drummond believes there are many factors to the failings and that, in fact, the tank is still crucial in warfare and can still be used successfully.

Play Video

Watch: UK to send more anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, PM says.

Russian tactical and logistical failings

The former British Army officer Mr Drummond highlights the tactical failings being attributed to the loss of Russian tanks.

“Part of the problem is that instead of attacking across a single line of advance, they use multiple axes,” he said.

“So, you know, 20 different lines of approach and that is impossible to support logistically. If you have one main thrust, à la Blitzkrieg, then, of course, that’s very easy to support.”

He went on: “The correct way to use a tank is to have focused line of march, a focused objective, one objective at a time, and to make sure that that’s fully resourced with the right number of troops, logistical back-up and so on, but also you have to use artillery and air support.”

Last week, according to a Western official, Russian forces abandoned “a lot” of tanks, vehicles, and artillery in a “hasty” withdrawal from northern Ukraine.

The official added that Vladimir Putin’s operations had been “disastrous” and the abandonment of vehicles may be a sign of a “collapse of the will to fight”.

More evidence of logistical failings came when images and videos reportedly showed Russian tanks running out of fuel on Ukrainian highways and even abandoned tanks being towed from the mud.

Tanks are still needed

Mr Drummond insists that tanks are still needed and not obsolete in conflict.

“You need to support infantry with indirect fire, artillery, but also the direct firepower that tanks offer,” he said.

“And that’s why they’re so important still. And that’s why infantry need them.

“And if you say tanks are obsolete, you are saying that all armoured vehicles are obsolete.”

He made reference to British soldiers killed in Iraq, who were not provided with enough protection by a Snatch Land Rover.

“If we are not going to use tanks, how are we going to protect our troops?” he asked. (Source: forces.net)