Ukraine Conflict Update

Ukraine Conflict Update – 12 April

Military and hard security developments

Over the last week Russian forces completed their withdrawal from northern Ukraine, with numerous Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) rapidly reconstituting and redeploying the eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have been massing north of Izyum, with indications of deployments of other units further south, ahead of an anticipated offensive in the Donbas, which could be launched this week. Long-range strikes remain an enduring threat to the entire country despite the focus on the Donbas, with critical supplies, especially fuel depots and railway infrastructure, key targets in the coming weeks. Peace talks have continued to stall as revelations of Russian war crimes make meaningful negotiations unlikely in the short term.

As has been the case over the last week, there has been limited movement of the frontline in the south and east of the country over the last 24 hours, as Russian forces continue to prepare for their coming offensive in the Donbas. Long-range strikes have nevertheless continued to hit locations across the country, with missiles hitting Khmelnytskyi and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts overnight, but the vast majority of artillery, air and missile strikes continued to remain focused in the south and east.
The most notable and concerning development has nevertheless been unconfirmed reports of possible chemical weapon use by Russian forces in the besieged city of Mariupol. Ukrainian forces of the Azov Battalion alleged that Russian forces had deployed some sort of chemical substance from a drone over the Azovstal works in the south of the city, with three people reportedly suffering symptoms of chemical poisoning, though they are understood not to be severe. The UK and US are working on verifying these claims as numerous Western states have already increased legal and clerical support to document Russian war crimes, with a French gendarme unit having deployed in Ukraine yesterday, 11 April, to assist evidence collection on the ground – though such Western experts will obviously be unable to independently confirm any weapons use in Mariupol or anywhere near the frontline.
The threat of CBRN use has remained a key trigger throughout the invasion, with US President Joe Biden stating use of chemical weapons would warrant a “response”, without specifying what that response would be. Russian operations have utilised chemical weapons in the past, including in Syria as well as off the battlefield in Salisbury, UK. As such, it remains a credible accusation, particularly as the separatist leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic Eduard Basurin called for Russian “chemical forces” to smoke out Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol earlier that day, 11 April, just hours before the alleged attack. However, confirmation of such a low-level and seemingly ineffective use will be extremely difficult, which may ultimately provide Russia with suitable deniability to prevent an escalation as NATO forces similarly wish to avoid direct confrontation with Moscow. Nevertheless, a single and low-level use of chemical weapons could be designed as a message to Ukrainian defenders in the city and elsewhere in a bid to encourage surrender, though further low-level cases remain likely as Moscow continues to test international red lines amid mounting pressure on Russian commanders to make progress in the Donbas.
In a wider development, six Russian oblasts neighbouring Ukraine have now raised their terrorist threat levels, amid numerous reports of explosions and other unspecified ‘incidents’ along the border. Kursk, Belgorod, Krasnador, Voronezh, Bryansk and occupied Crimea all rose the threat to “yellow”, the second highest in the three-tier level. The move reflects enduring Ukrainian capabilities to strike and disrupt Russian targets over the border. However, if such ‘incidents’ continue to escalate, further upticks in terrorist threat levels could be early indicators of a potential Russian state of emergency, which could be used by Moscow to justify further restrictions if the Donbas offensive does not go smoothly.
Ukrainian forces have succeed in sabotaging a railway line in the North West at Belgorod, 6 kms from the Russian Border slowing down trop deployments to the Donbas,

Diplomatic and strategic developments

On 12 April Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West that attempts to isolate Russia will fail, stating that the country will never again depend on the West. While Putin reiterated established propaganda that the war in Ukraine was “inevitable” in fighting neo-Nazism, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that the war in Ukraine is partly being fought be Russia to end the “total dominance” and “reckless expansion” of the US on the word stage. This is the latest in an already long list of justifications for why Moscow is fighting in Ukraine, and underlines the entrenched anti-Western sentiment promoted by the Kremlin in their messaging about the war.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s visited Moscow yesterday, 11 April, where he claimed to have had a “direct, open and tough” dialogue with Putin. The first European leader to meet with Putin in person since the beginning of the invasion, Nehammer’s visit remains controversial as numerous Western governments call for further sanctions on Moscow. Notably, Nehammer stated after the meeting that Putin had “massively entered into a logic of war” and that following the meeting “if you’re asking me whether I am optimistic or pessimistic, I’m rather pessimistic”. While maskirovka should be born in mind during an such diplomatic meeting, Nehammer’s pessimistic conclusion underlines the low likelihood of an end to the war in the short term, with Moscow and Ukraine now further apart in terms of willingness to negotiate than earlier in the war.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated on 11 April that current EU sanctions against Russia are too weak and have failed to stop Russia prosecuting its war in Ukraine. EU ministers are expected to debate potential restrictions on Russian oil imports this week, but significant disagreement within the bloc will likely preclude a consensus emerging. Nevertheless, if Russian chemical weapons use in Mariupol is confirmed, or a consensus emerges that such a weapon had been used, this could place further pressure on reluctant EU governments to accept a strengthening of sanctions against Russia, including against the energy sector.

Economic/business environment developments

On 11 April the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) ruled state-owned Russian Railways as in default after it missed a number of bond payments. The decision marks the first time a Russian company has been ruled as in default since the beginning of the invasion, though Russian Railways have since claimed that it is not in default as it paid on time, blaming financial intermediaries for delays in payments. The development is the latest indicator that Russia is operating ever closer to technical default as Western sanctions severely undermine Moscow’s ability to access funds and pay bondholders in certain foreign currencies.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on 11 April that Moscow would begin legal proceedings if it is declared in default by the West, with ratings agent S&P already stating Russia has entered “selective default” after bond-denominated bond repayments were made in rubles. The situation underlines Russia’s precarious financial position, with a technical default increasingly likely in the coming months, as Chairman of the Russian Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin warned on 12 April that Russia is on track for its deepest recession since 1994.
For further analysis and an economic forecast for the Russian economy in the wake of the invasion, see our Situation Update Brief.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Considering the withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kyiv, the security situation in and around the capital has moderately improved as of 11 April. The H01/P01 and the P32 remain the safest routes out of Kyiv. The E40 highway was declared ‘open’ for Kyiv-Lviv traffic last week by Ukrainian authorities. However, we continue to see video evidence (dated to within 48hrs of this email) suggesting that large swathes of the E40 are heavily congested by civilian and military vehicle wreckage, with substantial damage to the highway itself including significant potholes from air/missile strikes and artillery shelling, particularly in the vicinity of Makariv, approx. 70km west of Kyiv and directly adjacent to the E40. Therefore, although travel on this route should be relatively safe there may be delays as road-clearing continues.
It is highly likely that ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian units continue to take place on routes around and in Kyiv, and those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution. Air raid warnings across western Ukraine – notably in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv – highlight that the threat of air attacks remain high in western Ukraine, therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes.
Between Kyiv and Dnipro, we recommend the southbound H01 from Kyiv to Znamyanka, continuing westbound on the E50 through Oleksandriya to Dnipro proper. The eastbound route from Kyiv, taking the E40/M03, is likely to face road closures due to debris and damage to road surfaces. The south-westerly route, taking the E95 to Uman and then the E50 eastbound to Dnipro, is currently safe but takes approximately 90 minutes longer than the H01 route. We would advise that due to ongoing strikes on Dnipro and the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region over the last 48hrs, the H01 southbound and E95 south-west routes should be chosen over the E50 eastbound.
Between Dnipro and Zhaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. At the time of writing both routes appear open, although with ongoing civilian evacuations from Zaporizhia we assess that there will be substantial delays on both routes. There may be waterbound transport options on the Dnipro River although we have no actionable intel on this at present. Due to RU military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is in close proximity to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. The H08 route may be marginally less dangerous due to its relative greater distance from the front line in south-eastern Ukraine, but we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.
The risk of a Russian air strike, missile attack or bomb attack on the western Ukrainian city of Uzhorod increased on 8 April following the announcement by Slovakia that it is donating its S-300 air defence system to Ukraine. The Slovakian MOD has stated in March that it has actionable intelligence on the targeting of Uzhorod International Airport by Russian assets and advised extreme caution around the airport. The agreement by the Slovakian MOD to acquire the US PATRIOT missile system – thereby allowing it to transfer the S-300 missile defence system to Ukraine – will likely trigger a retaliatory move by Russia on Uzhorod.
Preparations have continued for the planned Russian offensive in Donbas, with forces continuing to gather north of Izyum. There is also now further evidence of Russian troops massing in the southern part of Donbas, with a BTG of Naval Infantry from the Pacific Fleet pictured yesterday moving up through Rostov region.
Our assessment remains that Russia will push from the north towards Barvinkove, and the south towards Pokrovsk, as initial objectives. These are key towns on the railways into the Donbas salient, and have already been struck by missiles. The southern push is likely to come around Donetsk but the jumping-off point for this offensive is currently much harder to assess than in the north of the salient. This may in part reflect deception being used by Russian forces – focusing social media coverage on the northern axis, while in fact more (and fresher) formations are gathering in the south relatively quietly. This is also supported by the fact that the forces around Izyum are also quite worn out by recent combat, whereas others moving up appear less damaged.
Regardless, heavy pressure will be maintained throughout the Donbas to keep all Ukrainian forces pinned in place and suffering attrition of personnel and supplies. This is why probing attacks are being used to tease out defence positions, with Russian commanders still considering that moving troops forward to draw fire is the only sure way to find the enemy and mark them for suppression by artillery in due course. This is a wasteful approach but suits the comparatively low tactical competence of Russian and separatist forces.
In the south, Russia is increasingly focused on ending the battle in Mariupol, which we assess will free up five BTGs for redeployment elsewhere – likely near Donetsk, but possibly closer to Kherson. While fighting for the port city has been intense, the Russian approach of using firepower to clear ground and forcing the surrender of Ukrainian forces due to ammunition and food exhaustion has limited the rate of casualties. Ukrainian sources are indicating that 10,000 civilians and soldiers have died in the city, and 120,000 civilians remain in dire humanitarian conditions. Reports that Ukrainian marines are surrendering due to exhaustion of ammunition and food appear credible, although we believe Azov fighters will likely hold out for as long as possible due to the high likelihood that they will be executed or held for a show trial/propaganda purposes.
Fears of chemical weapons use remain heightened, following calls from the Donetsk People’s Republic military leader yesterday that these were the best weapon to use against the fighters in the Avozstal works in Mariupol. President Zelensky has explicitly raised usage as a serious threat. We have so far seen three significant battlefield chemical incidents; two in Rubizhne, Donbas, and one in Sumy. These did not give any advantage to Russian troops and could have been genuine accidents during fighting.
However, reports emerged overnight of a drone CBRN attack using what appears to have been a nerve agent against Azov fighters overnight. This incident remains unsubstantiated, and caused only minor casualties (three people with breathing and balance difficulties). It is being investigated by the US and UK, who have made statements, but it will be impossible to verify given the circumstances.
This is in line with Russian operations utilising CBRN in Syria, which were carried out by the same commander as the current operation in Ukraine. Low level incidents which are deniable, and countered with information operations to confuse the situation by proposing numerous alternative hypotheses, allow Russia to make use of the fear caused by these weapons without visibly crossing any (unstated) red line. Larger scale use, often justified by an information narrative blaming the adversary, then follows – but as it is not the first use, it is harder for countries to respond.
This is similar to the pattern undertaken by Russia regarding mistreatment of civilians. The misinformation and disinformation narrative is explicitly designed to hamper a clear response, and we will see the same regarding this incident in Mariupol. NATO and the US have previously stated that CBRN use would prompt a reaction, albeit the nature of any response has never been specified. The key element will likely remain “is it proven”, especially given the likely lack of desire to escalate sanctions still further from e.g. Germany and other nations highly reliant on Russian energy supplies. Moreover, we continue to assess that there is highly limited desire to engage Russian forces more directly from any NATO member.
The most likely response is therefore further increased military aid, evidently including CBRN protective equipment and test kits. These are already flowing, although not in sufficient numbers for the scale of the task, and of course are not available to those Ukrainian soldiers holding out in Mariupol. Supplies of more lethal aid though will also possibly increase as a direct result of this, even if the incident is not confirmed, in order to try to send a message back to Russia.
This could remain an isolated incident, but we assess that more low-level cases are likely as Russian military and political leadership continue to test the boundaries of international resolve. This will also allow different substances and tactics to be trialled, with the attempt in this case seemingly being quite low in terms of effectiveness. Chemicals remain comparatively difficult to deploy in deniable ways, which will remain the most likely limiting factor against widespread use. The most likely area of deployment will remain Azovstal in Mariupol, although any contested urban or defensive area may see more of these tactics. This is partly because Russia is aware that Azov personnel will likely fight more tenaciously, so this will require prioritisation of more aggressive measures.
We continue to assess that Russia will seek to launch an offensive this week, potentially over the Easter weekend given a level of distraction in the West. This will allow further redeployment of forces over the coming days, and gives a few days for weather to improve. Off road movement will however remain difficult and this remains a significant obstacle for Russian forces. Breaking through many layers of well-prepared defences will also be highly challenging, particularly in the south, so it is likely that preparatory attacks will continue in order to gain the best possible position for success.

Overall, we consider the result of the Donbas campaign remains much in the balance. Ukrainian forces have had a long time to plan and have effective systems for defensive operations, assuming that they can retain mobility and trade space for time. However, they are weakened by weeks of fighting and constrained supplies, plus territorial units around Kyiv have largely not been deployed southwards. Raids and ambushes near Kharkiv continue to harass Russian movements, but the majority of Russian supply lines are now much better established and protected than was the case in the north. While the destruction of an ammunition site near Donetsk shows that Ukraine can still strike effectively in depth, Russian forces in Donbas ultimately have greater advantages than seen previously. Against this, they are tired, thrown together as groups, and still tactically naïve – meaning they will remain highly reliant on firepower and brutality to grind forwards.

US: Aggressive defensive measures over WatchGuard bug and Russian threats will continue to impact corporate networks. On 11 April, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) ordered all Federal Civilian Executive Branch Agencies (FCEB) to patch an actively exploited bug affecting the WatchGuard Firebox and XTM firewall appliances. CISA linked the vulnerability to the Russian state-sponsored hacking group Sandstorm, which has exploited the bug since June 2019. The group uses Cyclops Blink malware to build a botnet and target WatchGuard firewall services. The warning comes less than a week after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced a pre-emptive disruption of the Cyclops Blink botnet, before hackers leveraged the system for offensive cyber operations. Notably, the FBI’s aggressive defensive measures, including entering corporate networks without alerting operators, marks a shift in federal cyber threat response strategies. While pre-emptive disruptions will strengthen deterrence capabilities and threat response windows, the breach of private network space will slightly strain public-private partnerships, though this is unlikely to significantly undermine a cohesive defensive framework against state-sponsored cyber-attacks.

Europe: Oil industry organisation issues dire warning to EU over Russian oil ban, highlighting threat of further energy disruption. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a warning to the European Union yesterday (11 April) that further sanctions on Russian oil imports would inflict an ‘unprecedented, irreplaceable’ loss in energy flow to the EU. The warning follows the EU’s move to sanction Russian coal last week, which senior EU officials have indicated is likely to prefigure targeted sanctions on Russian oil. Whilst OPEC is not an unbiased commentator – representing the Russian oil sector amongst others – it is correct in that targeted EU sanctions on Russian oil will have a destabilising impact on the EU’s energy sector, particularly on countries more heavily dependent on Russia for their oil supply. Although the bloc intends to decrease its oil usage by 30 percent by 2030, substantial threats to the EU-wide energy sector remain in the short-term, particularly as Europe already faces an energy price crisis. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to intensify in the coming weeks, the likelihood of an embargo on Russian oil will grow, increasing the overall threat of greater energy disruptions in Europe.

Italy: Government signs gas supply deal with Algeria, reducing threat to energy security. Following a meeting between Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Algerian President Abdelamadjid Tebboune on 11 April, the two parties have signed a declaration of intent to boost energy cooperation. While an agreement on additional gas supplies was penned between Italy’s ENI and Algeria’s Sonatrach, as Italy seeks to secure additional natural gas supplies in a pivot away from Russian imports. Currently, Russia supplies around 40 percent of Italy’s gas while 28 percent is sourced from Algeria. According to the new agreement, Algeria will supply an additional 9 million cubic meters by next year and in 2024, potentially overtaking Russia as the main natural gas supplier to Italy, therefore partly stabilising energy security in the country in the near to long-term.

Preparations have continued for the planned Russian offensive in Donbas, with forces continuing to gather north of Izyum. There is also now further evidence of Russian troops massing in the southern part of Donbas, with a BTG of Naval Infantry from the Pacific Fleet pictured yesterday moving up through Rostov region.
Our assessment remains that Russia will push from the north towards Barvinkove, and the south towards Pokrovsk, as initial objectives. These are key towns on the railways into the Donbas salient, and have already been struck by missiles. The southern push is likely to come around Donetsk but the jumping-off point for this offensive is currently much harder to assess than in the north of the salient. This may in part reflect deception being used by Russian forces – focusing social media coverage on the northern axis, while in fact more (and fresher) formations are gathering in the south relatively quietly. This is also supported by the fact that the forces around Izyum are also quite worn out by recent combat, whereas others moving up appear less damaged.
Regardless, heavy pressure will be maintained throughout the Donbas to keep all Ukrainian forces pinned in place and suffering attrition of personnel and supplies. This is why probing attacks are being used to tease out defence positions, with Russian commanders still considering that moving troops forward to draw fire is the only sure way to find the enemy and mark them for suppression by artillery in due course. This is a wasteful approach but suits the comparatively low tactical competence of Russian and separatist forces.
In the south, Russia is increasingly focused on ending the battle in Mariupol, which we assess will free up five BTGs for redeployment elsewhere – likely near Donetsk, but possibly closer to Kherson. While fighting for the port city has been intense, the Russian approach of using firepower to clear ground and forcing the surrender of Ukrainian forces due to ammunition and food exhaustion has limited the rate of casualties. Ukrainian sources are indicating that 10,000 civilians and soldiers have died in the city, and 120,000 civilians remain in dire humanitarian conditions. Reports that Ukrainian marines are surrendering due to exhaustion of ammunition and food appear credible, although we believe Azov fighters will likely hold out for as long as possible due to the high likelihood that they will be executed or held for a show trial/propaganda purposes.
Fears of chemical weapons use remain heightened, following calls from the Donetsk People’s Republic military leader yesterday that these were the best weapon to use against the fighters in the Avozstal works in Mariupol. President Zelensky has explicitly raised usage as a serious threat. We have so far seen three significant battlefield chemical incidents; two in Rubizhne, Donbas, and one in Sumy. These did not give any advantage to Russian troops and could have been genuine accidents during fighting.
However, reports emerged overnight of a drone CBRN attack using what appears to have been a nerve agent against Azov fighters overnight. This incident remains unsubstantiated, and caused only minor casualties (three people with breathing and balance difficulties). It is being investigated by the US and UK, who have made statements, but it will be impossible to verify given the circumstances.
This is in line with Russian operations utilising CBRN in Syria, which were carried out by the same commander as the current operation in Ukraine. Low level incidents which are deniable, and countered with information operations to confuse the situation by proposing numerous alternative hypotheses, allow Russia to make use of the fear caused by these weapons without visibly crossing any (unstated) red line. Larger scale use, often justified by an information narrative blaming the adversary, then follows – but as it is not the first use, it is harder for countries to respond.
This is similar to the pattern undertaken by Russia regarding mistreatment of civilians. The misinformation and disinformation narrative is explicitly designed to hamper a clear response, and we will see the same regarding this incident in Mariupol. NATO and the US have previously stated that CBRN use would prompt a reaction, albeit the nature of any response has never been specified. The key element will likely remain “is it proven”, especially given the likely lack of desire to escalate sanctions still further from e.g. Germany and other nations highly reliant on Russian energy supplies. Moreover, we continue to assess that there is highly limited desire to engage Russian forces more directly from any NATO member.
The most likely response is therefore further increased military aid, evidently including CBRN protective equipment and test kits. These are already flowing, although not in sufficient numbers for the scale of the task, and of course are not available to those Ukrainian soldiers holding out in Mariupol. Supplies of more lethal aid though will also possibly increase as a direct result of this, even if the incident is not confirmed, in order to try to send a message back to Russia.
This could remain an isolated incident, but we assess that more low-level cases are likely as Russian military and political leadership continue to test the boundaries of international resolve. This will also allow different substances and tactics to be trialled, with the attempt in this case seemingly being quite low in terms of effectiveness. Chemicals remain comparatively difficult to deploy in deniable ways, which will remain the most likely limiting factor against widespread use. The most likely area of deployment will remain Azovstal in Mariupol, although any contested urban or defensive area may see more of these tactics. This is partly because Russia is aware that Azov personnel will likely fight more tenaciously, so this will require prioritisation of more aggressive measures.
We continue to assess that Russia will seek to launch an offensive this week, potentially over the Easter weekend given a level of distraction in the West. This will allow further redeployment of forces over the coming days, and gives a few days for weather to improve. Off road movement will however remain difficult and this remains a significant obstacle for Russian forces. Breaking through many layers of well-prepared defences will also be highly challenging, particularly in the south, so it is likely that preparatory attacks will continue in order to gain the best possible position for success.

Pro-Russian operations target Western government agencies and military forces

On 8 April, Denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks struck Finland’s ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs’ websites at approximately 12:00 local time. One hour later, government agencies reported via Twitter that their websites had resumed normal functions. The cyber attacks took place as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed Finland’s parliament, with the Finnish government having expressed strong support for Ukraine following the address. Though unconfirmed, the cyber attacks are likely to have Russian origins or connections.

Pro-Ukraine hackers remain highly active, expanding Russian-linked targets

On 11 April, a Twitter account allegedly linked to the Anonymous network claimed that the group had hacked the Russian website of MyAirlines, a reservation and purchase system for airline tickets, as well as a provider of flight information. The account alleged that the group had permanently redirected the MyAirlines.ru URL to the Google search engine, with the action tagged as being part of Anonymous’ wider targeting of Russia.
On 11 April, the Twitter account of Emma Best, the reported co-founder of Distributed Denial of Secrets (DDoSecrets), whistleblowing media collective, claimed that the group had “published over 700 GB of Russian government data, including over 500,000 emails”, with the largest dataset being from the “Ministry of Culture at 446 GB”. This reported release brings the total number of DDoSecrets publications since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to over 2.9 million.
On 10 April, a Twitter account allegedly linked to the hacktivist group known as v0g3lSec reported that the group had breached the website of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, targeting data from the Luna-Glob Mission. The Mission is an exploration programme “aimed at developing a fully robotic lunar base”. Twitter accounts purportedly linked to the Anonymous network also publicised the alleged 108 Mib data leak.
According to cyber security industry reports on 9 April, the hacking group Network Battalion 65 (NB65) has targeted Russian state and private entities through ransomware attacks over recent weeks. NB65 reportedly modified the leaked ransomware source codes from the cyber threat actor Conti to create its own ransomware which it claims existing decryptors would not work on. Ukrainian cyber security researchers exposed the Conti group’s links to Moscow and its operations in a mass leak of internal communication earlier in the Ukraine conflict (see Biweekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 22 March 2022). Allied with the hacker collective Anonymous, NB65 undertakes attacks against Russian organisations in support of Ukraine. In particular, the group has targeted entities linked to the ongoing war, such as Russian state television and radio network VGTRK, and Russian space agency Roscosmos.
On 9 April, a Twitter account allegedly linked to the Anonymous collective claimed that the group has established an “online archive to document Russia’s war crimes”. In this archive, the group aims to gather evidence of “atrocities committed by the Russian army in Ukraine” to “ensure that these war criminals cannot escape justice”. The website claims to report accurate statistics on the numbers of war crimes registered, total civilian buildings destroyed, as well as civilian injuries and deaths. In addition, the website includes Ukrainian eyewitness testimonies, as well as information allegedly obtained via intercepted communications between Russian soldiers.

Forecast

The recent DDoS attacks on Finnish government websites have not been formally attributed to Russian sources. Nevertheless, the cyber attacks closely followed an announcement by Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin on 8 April that the country will vote ahead of the summer period on the issue of formally applying for NATO membership. As such, the cyber action is likely related to elevated regional tensions with Russia, with Moscow representing the prime culprit, though the Kremlin is likely to maintain a degree of plausible deniability. If conducted by Russian or pro-Russian sources, the attack would represent an expansion in cyber threats to countries not directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine. The development will therefore add greater urgency to warnings by US federal agencies to Western organisations to strengthen their cyber resilience. Similar DDoS attacks against Western governments are likely in the coming weeks, while organisations in critical industries working closely with governments, particularly Ukrainian authorities, are likely to be most affected by malicious Russian cyber campaigns. Pro-Ukraine hacking groups continue to escalate their cyber targeting tactics. Hackers such as the Network Battalion 65′ and Anonymous launched cyber operations targeting Russian government agencies, website domains and critical sectors. Anonymous remains an active and effective pro-Ukraine hacking group, collaborating closely with whistleblowing media outlet DDoSecrets, reportedly targeting Russia’s Ministry of Culture. The data leak could provide groups with insight into Russian government censorship procedures since the invasion of Ukraine and, consequently, with information to support broader efforts to oppose and disrupt Moscow’s growing disinformation/misinformation warfare, as well as domestic propaganda campaigns. However, the Conti leaks incident indicates that NB65 has shifted its tactics from data theft to ransomware attacks, with the ransom demand notice blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine as the reason for the attack. The revelation of apparent war crimes committed by Russian troops will likely galvanise pro-Kyiv cyber threat actors retaliating against Russian entities. This will deepen the tit-for-tat cyber conflict, with Moscow-linked hackers likely to gradually expand their target list to other countries not directly involved in the conflict. The development will therefore add greater urgency to warnings by US federal agencies to Western organisations to strengthen their cyber resilience. Similar DDoS attacks against Western governments are likely in the coming weeks, while organisations in critical industries working closely with governments, particularly Ukrainian authorities, are likely to be most affected by malicious Russian cyber campaigns.

Pro-Ukraine hacking groups continue to escalate their cyber targeting tactics. Hackers such as the Network Battalion 65′ and Anonymous launched cyber operations targeting Russian government agencies, website domains and critical sectors. Anonymous remains an active and effective pro-Ukraine hacking group, collaborating closely with whistleblowing media outlet DDoSecrets, reportedly targeting Russia’s Ministry of Culture. The data leak could provide groups with insight into Russian government censorship procedures since the invasion of Ukraine and, consequently, with information to support broader efforts to oppose and disrupt Moscow’s growing disinformation/misinformation warfare, as well as domestic propaganda campaigns. However, the Conti leaks incident indicates that NB65 has shifted its tactics from data theft to ransomware attacks, with the ransom demand notice blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine as the reason for the attack. The revelation of apparent war crimes committed by Russian troops will likely galvanise pro-Kyiv cyber threat actors retaliating against Russian entities. This will deepen the tit-for-tat cyber conflict, with Moscow-linked hackers likely to gradually expand their target list to other countries not directly involved in the conflict. (Source: Sibylline)

12 Apr 22. Putin says peace talks with Ukraine at ‘dead end’ Russian president claims. Kyiv has deviated from agreements reached in Turkey. Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that his military operation in Ukraine was going according to plan. President Vladimir Putin has said that peace talks with Ukraine are at a “dead end” as the Russian leader claims that Kyiv has deviated from agreements struck in Istanbul. “We reached a certain level of agreements in Istanbul, which stated that security guarantees for Ukraine . . . would not spread to Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas,” Putin said on Tuesday as he spoke publicly about Russia’s military activity after a prolonged silence on the issue. “We acted to create conditions to continue talks,” he added. “Instead, we faced the provocation in Bucha and, what’s most important, the Ukrainian side deviated from the Istanbul agreements,” Putin said. Now, “the security demands are one thing, and issues of regulating relations on Crimea, Sevastopol and Donbas are taken outside of those agreements”, he said. “So we are back to the dead-end situation.” Ukraine’s “inconsistency” on key issues made it difficult to achieve a final agreement, he said. “And until we see that, the operation will continue to its complete end.” Putin called a civilian massacre in Bucha, a town near Kyiv, a “provocation” against Moscow. He said that claims people died at the hands of Russian soldiers were “fake news” from the US. Ukraine meanwhile has said Russia was responsible. The Russian president added that his military operation in Ukraine was going according to plan. “I often hear questions whether it is possible to move any faster. It is possible. It depends on the intensity of military action, and the intensity of military action is unfortunately one way or another linked with losses,” Putin said at a media conference with his Belarus’ counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, according to Interfax. “Our task is to achieve the set goals while minimising losses. And we will move rhythmically, calmly, according to plan, which was initially proposed by the general staff,” the Russian president said. The activity in Ukraine “was only aimed at immobilising forces, attacking and destroying military infrastructure”, he added. The latest figures from the UN Human Rights office show more than 1,800 civilians have been killed and almost 2,500 injured since the conflict began in February. (Source: FT.com)

BATTLESPACE Comment: Sources suggest that Putin will require more than Donbas plus to achieve a May Day Victory parade. At which time he will pause, regroup and plan the Third stage of the war which has bene brwing for 20 years. The same sources suggest that even if Putin is deposed or dies, there are enough like minded Russian high-ranking officials to carry on where he left off. If Sanctions continue to bite, he will require them off the table before agreeing anything. If all else fails ‘attack or fail,’ will be the doctrine and the war will escalate well into the winter. The US is quietly building up a greater presence with the Exercise Cold Response troops staying in theatre, bombers based in the UK, and other equipment such as F-18A/F Growlers and other ISTAR assets being used extensively to support the Ukrainians as well as patrolling close to the Murmansk border.

12 Apr 22. U.S., Germany in Stronger Position Than Russia Before Ukraine Crisis. U.S. leadership ratings rebounded in 2021 in the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency.

A new Gallup report reveals that before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended the geopolitical order, the U.S. and Germany held more “soft power” around the world than they had in years. In that regard, both countries were in much stronger positions heading into the conflict than either Russia or China.

Here are some of the key findings from Gallup’s Rating World Leaders 2022 report:

U.S. leadership ratings around the world rebounded in 2021 in the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency.
There were double-digit increases in U.S. leadership approval in 59 countries and territories between 2020 and 2021.
Ratings for the U.S. slipped after withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.
The U.S. and Germany were well-positioned to rally NATO and the rest of the world ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Implications Beyond 2022: In the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, one of the big questions was how much damage the quick pullout might have done to Biden’s credibility on the world stage and whether it might hamper his future ability to work with U.S. allies.

Few outside Moscow likely could have foreseen how quickly this would be tested with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And even fewer likely anticipated the entire geopolitical order would essentially be upended as Biden started his second year in office. The only certainty about what happens next is that it will shape the next world order — but who will be in the lead?

12 Apr 22. British missile takes down Russian drone. A state-of-the-art British missile has blown a Russian drone out of the sky in its first recorded use in Ukraine. The Martlet, a laser-guided lightweight multirole missile (LMM), is understood to have been sent in secret to Ukraine by Britain but was filmed being launched by a soldier of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade on Sunday. Footage of the attack shows the soldier aiming a shoulder launcher at an Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone in the Kharkiv region before firing the 1,100mph missile. Cheers are heard moments later after the warhead hit the aircraft with a concentrated explosive charge and fragmentation blast. Images of the crashed drone, which costs £92,000 to build, show that it lost both wings after being hit.

A Ukrainian soldier wrote on Twitter: “This is a greeting from Ukrainian paratroopers to Boris Johnson. Thank you, Britain. The support of our allies is being used effectively, send more of it. For our freedom and yours!”

Initial reports suggested that the Ukrainian brigade had used a high-velocity British Starstreak missile to shoot the drone, but The Times understands it was its sister missile, the Martlet. The weapon is in the same family as Starstreak, but is slower and uses explosives to destroy targets rather than three kinetic darts. It is guided to aircraft in the same way, with a ground operator using a laser to direct the arrow-like missile as it travels through the air.

Western sources warned that Russia was trying to double or triple its force in the Donbas region and that dozens of units were already moving in or were waiting for the order to move. The West must act now to give Ukraine more lethal weapons while the Russians re-equipped and refurbished their units, a second source said.

An eight-mile convoy of military Continued on page 2, col 3 continued from page 1 British missile takes down drone vehicles north of the eastern city of Izyum was “clear evidence” that Russia was following through with its goal of focusing on the east of Ukraine, according to the US military.

Until yesterday it was not known that Martlet missiles had been sent to Ukraine to help to secure the country’s airspace against Russian jets, helicopters and surveillance drones. The weapon has not been named by officials who announced support shipments to the country. A senior defence source said LMMs had been delivered as part of Britain’s “air defence package”, adding: “The missiles are interchangeable with the launcher and the LMM is best for UAVs.”

It is understood that Martlets were deployed to Ukraine at the same time as Starstreak and have been in use since late March. The missiles have similar ranges and can be fired using the same launcher after minor adjustments. They are made in Belfast by Thales, an aerospace and defence company, which declined to comment.

Examining the footage, a defence industry source said: “We are certain it’s an LMM, not Starstreak. It’s a much smaller, more compact, high-precision weapon designed to take out fast-moving targets. Starstreak is best against jets and helicopters, but LMMs can also be fired against boats and drones.”

The attack was the second of three successful strikes against high-altitude Russian Orlan drones in the past three days, according to the Ukrainian air assault forces. A the unit praised the “British-made” weapon used in the second attack and suggested Starstreak had been used in the first strike on Saturday. Yesterday the forces confirmed that a third Orlan had been taken out of the sky by paratroopers in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine.

Footage of a Russian helicopter chopped in half by a Starstreak missile emerged this month. Other countries are understood to have supplies of LMMs and may have given some to Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers released a video of a captured Orlan drone being dissected by a technician at the weekend. He discovered that it had been using a cheap digital camera to spy on Ukrainian troops and that a plastic water bottle had been used as a fuel tank.

The battle for airspace is considered the most important front in the war by the Ukrainian air force. Slovakia is considering providing Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine if alternative protection of its own airspace can be arranged, the country’s prime minister, Eduard Heger, said yesterday.

Western nations have supplied a variety of weapons, but earlier discussions on providing MiG-29s, which are also used by Poland and Bulgaria, were halted because the plans were perceived as too risky in increasing tensions between Russia and Nato. (Source: The Times)

12 Apr 22. Ukraine requests military assistance from South Korea. Ukraine has sought military aid from South Korea as its ongoing hostilities with Russia show no sign of stopping, Reuters reported. In a video address to South Korean legislators, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that the country needs more assistance to survive the conflict.

“You have something that can be indispensable for us […] armoured vehicles, anti-aircraft, anti-tank, anti-ship weapons,” he was quoted by the news agency as saying in the address.

This comes after the South Korean defence ministry rejected a Ukrainian request for anti-aircraft weapons to limit the impact on Seoul’s military readiness.

President Zelenskiy did not mention the rejection in his speech, but said that the rules related to weapon supplies must be reassessed.

Last week, South Korea committed to sending $30m worth of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It will also send non-lethal support, such as bulletproof helmets and medical kits, to the war-affected nation.

Rheinmetall is working to ship up to 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine.

In an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said that the first tanks will be delivered in six weeks.

The deliveries, set to be made through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia, are subject to German Government approval.

Papperger added that the Ukrainian skilled personnel can be trained to operate the Leopard 1 battle tanks in a few days.

Slovakia recently sent its S-300 air defence system to Ukraine, as Western countries continue to send military aid to the embattled country.

Russia claimed to have destroyed similar S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems deployed near the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

Slovakia said that its air-defence system was not hit in the attack. (Source: army-technology.com)

11 Apr 22. Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive as Moscow dismisses rape allegations.

Summary
Zelenskiy says Russia could use chemical weapons
Austrian leader meets Putin, warns of ‘massive’ offensive
U.N. official cites growing reports of rape
U.S. urges India to cut Russian oil and gas

LVIV, Ukraine, April 12 (Reuters) – Ukraine pleaded for more weapons from the West to help it end the siege of Mariupol and fend off an expected Russian offensive in the east, as more reports emerged of rape and brutality against Ukrainian civilians by Russian forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a televised address late on Monday that Russia could resort to chemical weapons as it amassed troops in the eastern Donbas region for a new assault on the port of Mariupol, where thousands are believed to have died under a near-seven week siege. r

“When it comes on the necessary weapons, we still depend on supplies, on our partners. Unfortunately we are not getting as much as we need to end this war faster … In particular, to lift the blockade of Mariupol,” he said.

The first European Union leader to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in person since he launched what he called a “special operation”, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, said following talks in Moscow on Monday that an offensive in the east was “being prepared on a massive scale”. read more

After suffering heavy losses and withdrawing forces from the suburbs of Kyiv, Russia has turned its sights toward Donbas, where it demands Ukraine cede control to separatist fighters. Capturing Mariupol would allow Moscow to attempt to encircle the main Ukrainian force in the east.

Delivering a regular early morning roundup from the conflict zone, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said that aside from trying to take control of Mariupol, Russian forces were also intent on capturing Popasna, a town more than two hours drive west of Luhansk, and were set to launch an offensive in the direction of Kurakhove, in the Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian military said its troops had repulsed attacks in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, destroying four tanks, five armoured vehicles, 26 vehicles and eight enemy artillery systems. It also said its forces had downed a Russian plane, two helicopters and four drones. Reuters could not independently verify those figures.

The departure of Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv has brought to light harrowing allegations of war crimes including executions and rape of civilians. Moscow dismisses the allegations as Ukrainian and Western provocations and has also accused Ukrainian forces of sexual violence.

Senior U.N. official Sima Bahous told the Security Council on Monday that while all allegations must by independently investigated, “the brutality displayed against Ukrainian civilians has raised all red flags”.

“We are increasingly hearing of rape and sexual violence,” she said.

Kateryna Cherepakha, president of rights group La Strada-Ukraine, told the Council via video: “We know and see – and we want you to hear our voices – that violence and rape is used now as a weapon of war by Russian invaders in Ukraine.”

Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador denied the allegations and accused Ukraine and allies of “a clear intention to present Russian soldiers as sadists and rapists.”

Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine’s government was being directed by the United States to sow false evidence of Russian violence against civilians despite what it cast as Moscow’s “unprecedented measures to save civilians.”

“The United States, which has many years of experience in organising provocations with human victims, continues its campaign to create and promote false ‘evidence’,” the ministry said.

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister accused Russia of holding civilians including journalists, activists and elected officials in prisons on Russian territory. Reuters could not verify the allegation. (Source: Reuters)

11 Apr 22. Slovakia could sell howitzers to Ukraine and repair its tanks, vehicles. Shortly after Slovakia supplied an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia’s invasion, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Naď has announced his country is in talks with the Ukrainian government over a potential sale of Zuzana 155 mm self-propelled howitzers.

“We are also discussing the possibility of having damaged Ukrainian combat vehicles and T-72 or T-55 tanks come to our territory, and our military repair plants would repair them and send them back to Ukraine,” Naď said, as reported by local news agency SITA.

Mounted on an eight-wheel drive chassis, Zuzana is an upgraded variant of the Dana self-propelled howitzer developed in the former Czechoslovakia. Zuzana is currently operated by the armed forces of Slovakia and Cyprus.

Naď said Bratislava and Kyiv were discussing whether the sale would involve the older Zuzana 2000 variant or the newer Zuzana 2 version. He did not disclose how many howitzers are on the table.

Slovakia’s armed forces acquired 16 Zuzana 2000 howitzers between 1998 and 2000, and in 2018, the country’s Ministry of Defence ordered 25 units of Zuzana 2 from Slovak state-run defense company KONŠTRUKTA-Defence.

The potential sale marks another example of the intensifying military cooperation between the two neighbors. Slovakia recently transferred its Soviet-era S-300 system to Ukraine after the United States agreed to deploy an additional battery of the Patriot air defense system to protect the Slovak skies.

“One battery of the Patriot system is better than one battery of the S-300 system, which we donated to Ukraine to protect innocent people from Putin’s aggression,” Naď said in an April 10 Facebook post. “We will have four such batteries.”

The fourth battery is to compliment the three batteries of the air defense system that were brought to Slovakia by its allies Germany and The Netherlands last month. (Source: Defense News)

11 Apr 22. Russians Shifting Their Fighting Focus to Eastern Ukraine, Says DOD Official. The Russians are now concentrating their combat activity, resupply and reinforcement mostly in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine, a senior Defense Department official said at a press briefing today.

That’s a change from the first part of their invasion, when Russian forces were trying to advance on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Lines of Russian vehicles are now headed toward Izyum, but they’re still north of that city. This convoy is believed to include command and control elements, a support battalion, perhaps rotary wing aviation support, and other infantry support, the official said.

“It’s clear evidence of what we’ve been saying for a while now that the Russians are going to want to pour more of their assets into the Donbas,” the official said.

There’s some evidence that the Russians are beginning to reinforce some of their positions southwest of Donetsk. They’re doing that largely with artillery units, the official said.

The DOD does not yet assess this as the beginning of a new offensive, as fighting in the Donbas region has been going on now for eight years, the official said.

In Kharkiv, the DOD assesses that Russian forces remain north of the city but they have not totally left the area as of yet, the official said.

There are indications that Russian forces that were in northern Ukraine and then moved into Belarus, are starting to move to the east, the official said.

Russian movements in southern Ukraine are static now, the official said. Mariupol and Mykolaiv are still in Ukrainian control.

The Russians still have almost a couple dozen ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The DOD believes that they are largely focused on resupply efforts, although there has been some limited activity in terms of strikes from the sea into the Donbas region.

“The Ukrainians have been very nimble and very agile in how and where and when they’re placing their air defense systems and we would expect that they would continue to do what they need to do to protect those systems,” the official said.

The U.S. continues to supply Ukraine with weapons systems and enablers, the official said. Enablers include such things a night-vision devices, thermal imagery systems and radio communications gear.

“Ukrainians still have very good command and control over their forces,” the official said. (Source: US DoD)

11 Apr 22. Security Assistance to Ukraine Continues Unabated. While Russia targets Ukraine’s Donbas region for continued aggression and Ukrainians shift their efforts to confront that aggression, the U.S., allies and partners continue their efforts to get security assistance to the Ukrainian military.

“Regardless of the Russian refocus on the Donbas, we’re not slowing down,” Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby said during a briefing today at the Pentagon. That stuff continues to move, it’s going to continue to move. We said as much as we can, as fast as we can — and we mean it.”

Just last Wednesday, President Joe Biden authorized an additional $100 million in security assistance to support Ukraine. Included in that were additional Javelin anti-armor systems for Ukrainian forces. This most recent package was the sixth drawdown of equipment from DOD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Along with the $300 million in military assistance announced in April, the total U.S. security assistance commitment to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion has been more than $1.7 billion.

Kirby said equipment still flows to Ukraine to help that nation defend its sovereignty against an unprovoked Russian invasion that began Feb. 24.

“We are working very, very hard every single day to continue to get security assistance to the Ukrainians,” Kirby told reporters, adding that anywhere from eight to 10 flights full of ammunition, hardware and other equipment are headed to Ukraine every day.

” not just from the United States, but from other nations, as well,” Kirby said. “And that stuff isn’t sitting around … it gets to these transshipment sites. They’re put onto trucks, and they’re moved into Ukraine very, very quickly. In some cases, stuff coming from the United States takes no more than four to six days from the time the president authorizes drawdown authority it gets into the hands of the Ukrainians. That’s an incredible rate of speed, and we aren’t slowing down.”

Kirby told reporters that despite Russia’s efforts to refocus their fight on the eastern part of Ukraine, in the area called the Donbas, nothing has changed about how the U.S. is getting much-needed supplies to the Ukrainians.

“The reprioritization of the Russians on the east hasn’t had an effect on our ability to help coordinate the delivery of massive amounts of security assistance from the United States and other nations,” he said. “That flow still continues.” (Source: US DoD)

12 Apr 22. Vladimir Putin ‘uses chemical weapons.’ After soldiers were left dizzy and unable to breathe, the Foreign Office is trying to verify reports that Russia has used chemical weapons in an attack on the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss vowed to hold Vladimir Putin “and his regime to account” if it is proven that the Kremlin’s forces used chemical agents.

The city’s Azov regiment is said to have fallen ill after a “poisonous substance of unknown origin” was reportedly dropped on them from a Russian drone.

It came hours after Mariupol’s mayor said more than 10,000 civilians have died in the Russian siege of his city and the death toll could surpass 20,000. Britain is increasingly worried that Russia could use white phosphorus munitions, which cause horrific burns.

Western officials think Russia wants to bring about the fall of Mariupol, pictured below, to free up troops for the fight in the Donbas.

Our senior foreign correspondent Roland Oliphant covers how the defenders are battling on street by street weeks after experts said the city would fall. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

11 Apr 22. Ukraine says tens of thousands killed in Mariupol, accuses Russia of abuses. Ukraine on Monday said tens of thousands of people have likely been killed in Russia’s assault on the southeastern city of Mariupol while the country’s rights ombudswoman accused Russian forces in the region of torture and executions. Reuters has confirmed widespread destruction in Mariupol but could not verify the alleged crimes or the estimate of those killed in the strategic city, which lies between Russian-annexed Crimea and eastern areas of Ukraine held by Russian-backed separatists.

“Mariupol has been destroyed, there are tens of thousands of dead, but even despite this, the Russians are not stopping their offensive,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address to South Korean lawmakers without providing more details.

If confirmed, it would be by far the largest number of dead so far reported in one place in Ukraine, where cities, towns and villages have come under relentless bombardment and bodies, including civilians, have been seen in the streets.

The head of the Russia-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, told Russia’s RIA news agency on Monday that more than 5,000 people may have been killed in Mariupol. He said Ukrainian forces were responsible.

The numbers of people leaving the city had fallen because Russian forces had slowed pre-departure checks, Petro Andryushchenko, an aide to the mayor of Mariupol, said on Monday on the Telegram messaging service.

Around 10,000 people were awaiting screening by Russian forces, he said. Russia does not allow military personnel to leave with civilian evacuees. There was no immediate comment from Moscow, which has previously blamed Ukraine for blocking evacuations.

Citing figures from Mariupol’s city administration, Ukraine’s human rights ombudswoman Lyudmyla Denisova said 33,000 residents of Mariupol had been deported to Russia or territories held by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russia said on Sunday it had “evacuated” 723,000 people from Ukraine since the start of what it called its “special operation.” Moscow denies attacking civilians.

“Witnesses report that Russian national guard troops and ‘Kadyrovite’ (Chechen) units are making illegal arrests, torturing detainees and executing them for any pro-Ukrainian stance,” in Mariupol, Denisova said in a post on Telegram.

The Russian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the torture allegations.

Ukrainian Interior Ministry Adviser Anton Geraschenko said in a televised interview on Monday that Ukrainian “deportees” were kept in guarded sanatoria and holiday camps.

“These people are not allowed to move around freely, or to have free access to communication platforms in order to contact their relatives in Ukraine,” he said, without citing direct evidence.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk told Reuters that the number of checkpoints along the Russian-controlled corridor between Mariupol to the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia had grown from three to 15.

Mariupol was among nine humanitarian corridors agreed with Russia on Monday to evacuate people from besieged eastern regions, but its corridor was for private cars only, Vereshchuk said on Telegram.

It was not possible to agree the provision of buses, she said.

Ukraine says Russian forces are massing for a new offensive on eastern areas, including Mariupol, where people have been without water, food and energy supplies for weeks.

Oleksander Pavlyuk, governor of the Kyiv region, said it would take about a year to clear the area of mines planted by the Russians before they withdrew.

U.S. PRESSURE

Putin is scheduled to meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Tuesday to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Western sanctions, news agencies in Russia and Belarus reported. Belarus is a key staging area for Russian forces.

The United States has sought to pressure Putin to withdraw his forces by banning Russian oil and gas and encouraging allies to follow suit.

But world powers including China and India have refrained from sanctioning Russia. Lured by steep oil discounts, India has purchased more Russian crude since the start of the Feb. 24 invasion than it did for the whole of last year, data compiled by Reuters shows.

In a video call, U.S. President Joe Biden told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “very clearly that it is not in their interest” to increase reliance on Russian energy, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said.

During a brief portion of the call open to reporters, Modi said he had suggested in recent talks with Russia that Putin and Zelenskiy hold direct negotiations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would not pause the fighting for any new round of peace talks, which last convened on April 1.

Britain’s defence ministry said Russian shelling continued in Donbas but Ukrainian forces had beaten back several assaults and destroyed Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery equipment.

The governor of another eastern region, Luhansk, told Ukrainian television that shelling was increasing day by day and urged all civilians to evacuate.

France declared six Russian agents posing as diplomats as persona non grata after an investigation by the domestic intelligence services concluded they were working against French national interests. (Source: Reuters)

11 Apr 22. Russia starting to reinforce positions in eastern Ukraine -U.S. official. The United States believes that Russia has started reinforcing and resupplying its troops in Donbas in eastern Ukraine, a senior U.S. defense official said on Monday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday thousands of Russian troops were massing for a new offensive in the east, and Russia said it would not halt its military operation in Ukraine for any further peace talks.

Despite the resupply efforts in Donbas, the United States did not believe this was the start of a new offensive in the region, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“We believe that this is an effort to reinforce and resupply their forces in the Donbas, they’re still north of Izyum,” the official told reporters, referring to a town about 180 km (112 miles) north of the city of Donetsk.

Russian vehicles being sent to the region included command and control elements and support personnel for aircraft and infantry units, the official said.

Last week, Russia completed its withdrawal from around Kyiv and had sent some troops to Belarus to be refit and resupplied.

The official said there was evidence that some of those troops in Belarus were moving east.

Russia still had the vast majority of its battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, including more than 55 groups in the south.

Russia’s defense ministry said Russian sea-launched missiles had on Sunday destroyed S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems which had been supplied to Ukraine by a European country.

The official said the United States had seen an airstrike at the Dnipro airfield that destroyed some infrastructure but did not have evidence that any S-300 missile defense system had been destroyed by Russia.

At the weekend, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with a small number of Ukrainian troops who had been in the United States for military education when Russia’s invasion started.

The troops were trained on Switchblade drones while they were in the United States and were scheduled to go back to Ukraine on Sunday.

The official was not aware of any current plans to bring Ukrainian forces into the United States for training, but Washington was looking at different options on how Ukrainians could be trained to use those type of drones. (Source: Reuters)

11 Apr 22. Ukraine calls for financial support to ensure country’s ‘survival.’ Finance minister seeks immediate aid from allies to plug deficit amounting to several billion dollars a month. Ukraine’s finance minister has appealed for immediate financial support of tens of billions of dollars to plug a gaping fiscal deficit caused by the Russian invasion. Government spending exceeded revenues by about $2.7bn in March and Ukraine expects the gap to expand to $5bn-$7bn a month in April and May because of the war. Ukraine’s gross domestic product was worth $164bn in 2021. “We are under great stress, in the very worst [financial] condition,” Sergii Marchenko said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Now it is a question of the survival of our country.” “If you want us to continue fighting this war, to win this war . . . then help us.” Marchenko painted a grim picture of the damage to Ukraine’s economy inflicted by Russia’s full-scale invasion in late February. Damage to civilian and military infrastructure was estimated at $270bn so far, he said, with nearly 7,000 residential buildings damaged or destroyed. If you want us to continue fighting this war, to win this war . . . then help us Sergii Marchenko, finance minister of Ukraine Though Ukraine has received significant military aid to help defend itself against Russia, the government wants its western partners to grant financial aid and to approve emergency lending from the IMF and World Bank. About 30 per cent of Ukrainian businesses had ceased all activities and 45 per cent were working at reduced capacity, he said. Electricity consumption was down 35 per cent. Trade had collapsed, with exports halving between February and March and imports falling by more than two-thirds. The Kyiv School of Economics on Monday estimated total economic losses from the war at up to $600bn. (Source: FT.com)

Ukraine Conflict Update – 12 April

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE