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28 Oct 22. Defense firms warn of labour and supply chain constraints through 2024. Four US defense contractors – Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrup Grumman and Raytheon – have recently warned of shortages in component parts and labour disruptions which may extend through 2024. Raytheon indicated that its components inventory was down in the third quarter to 55 percent from its usual 90 to 95 percent. Weapons and aerospace manufacturing has faced supply chain stress since the Covid-19 pandemic, placing downward pressure on production. While the war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions have driven up demand, companies continue to report issues such as chip shortages that have impacted several products, such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet. In the immediate term, supply chain constraints, high labour costs, and shortage of raw materials are likely to continue. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Oct 22. Biden seeks ‘right technology investment’ in National Defense Strategy. The Biden administration laid out a national defense strategy aimed at China, which it views as America’s most consequential strategic competitor, and Russia, which it sees as an “acute threat” capable of cyber and missile attacks on the U.S.
The administration’s first National Defense Strategy highlights Beijing’s growing military strength as well as its provocative rhetoric and coercive activity toward Taiwan as part of a broader pattern across the Asia-Pacific region. The 80-page unclassified version comes six months after it was sent to Capitol Hill and two weeks after the White House released its long overdue National Security Strategy.
“The NDS bluntly describes Russia as an acute threat, and we chose the word ‘acute’ carefully,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters. “Unlike China, Russia can’t systemically challenge the United States over the long term, but Russian aggression does pose an immediate and sharp threat to our interests and values. And [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s reckless war of choice against Ukraine, the worst threat to European security since the end of World War II, has made that very clear for the whole world.”
Pentagon officials said they did not substantively change the strategy, which was completed in March, in response to Russia’s 8-month-old invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. has sent more than $17bn in military aid to Ukraine, the fight has severely degraded Russian forces and Moscow is threatening to employ nuclear weapons.
A senior Pentagon official told reporters there was “overlap” between how the Pentagon is meeting challenges from both countries, particularly through investments in cyber, space and undersea capabilities, among others. “I like to think of it as the ‘two for one,’ if you will,” the official said.
The Pentagon is dealing with Russia’s threats to escalate the war in Ukraine, China’s reaffirmation of threats to annex Taiwan by force, an increasing alignment between the two, and mounting nuclear concerns from North Korea and Iran.
The Ukraine crisis delayed the rollout of the White House’s overarching National Security Strategy, which was released Oct. 12. The administration initially planned to release the strategy in February; that delay also encompassed the defense strategy.
The National Defense Strategy’s centerpiece is “integrated deterrence,” or coordinating military, diplomatic and economic levers from across the U.S. government to deter an adversary from taking an aggressive action. But it also stresses “campaigning” to build up the capability of international coalitions and complicate adversaries’ actions.
It also calls for making “the right technology investments” as it points to new threats from space weapons, tactical nuclear weapons, and new applications of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. Along with investments in directed-energy and hypersonic weapons, the strategy says it would be a “fast-follower” where market forces are driving commercialization of capabilities the military would use, like artificial intelligence, autonomy and renewable energy.
Nuclear competition
The Nuclear Posture Review, also released Thursday, emphasizes the need to modernize nuclear forces and highlights the dilemma of deterring two nuclear-armed competitors, Russia and China. It emphasizes the need to maintain robust nuclear command, control and communications through satellites and cyberspace.
Biden came to office championing nuclear weapons reduction, and the strategy stresses efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons. But administration officials acknowledged that arms control efforts have been stymied by China’s refusal to participate.
Though the document calls for the B83-1 nuclear gravity bomb to be retired and development of the sea-launched cruise missile to be halted, Congress appears poised to preserve the latter, amid support from top generals, through the 2023 defense policy bill. The administration is yet to decide on how it will approach its plan to retire the B83.
Administration officials previewing the strategy said the sea-launched cruise missile and gravity bomb had been deemed unnecessary after broad consultations in and outside the Defense Department.
When asked what message Putin would receive from any move to scuttle the nuclear-armed SLCM, Austin defended the U.S. nuclear arsenal’s ability to deter Russia.
“As you know, our inventory of nuclear weapons is significant. And so we determined, as we looked at our inventory, that that — you know, we did not need that capability,” Austin said of the SLCM-N. “We have a lot of capability in our nuclear inventory, and I don’t think that sends any message to Putin. He understands what our capability is.”
Global deployments
The strategy’s force-planning construct aims for the ability to respond to short, small-scale crises without substantially impairing its readiness for high-end conflicts with Russia and China.
“Our force posture will focus on the access and warfighting requirements that enable our efforts to deter potential PRC [People’s Republic of China] and Russian aggression against vital U.S. national interests, and to prevail in conflict if deterrence fails,” according to the document.
That will include investments in cyber, space and undersea capabilities in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, a senior defense official said, as well as exercises in those areas.
“And so as we understand our posture, how do we make sure that we don’t just think about sort of folks on the ground, which is just our more traditional view, but, for example, in our space capabilities?” the official said.
Though officials have been mum on any negotiations about changing the mix of forward-deployed and rotating troops abroad, defense officials in recent years have put both of those possibilities on the table.
“My advice would be to create permanent bases, but don’t permanently station,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee in April. “So you get the effect of permanence by rotational forces cycling through permanent bases.”
At the time, the U.S. had mobilized roughly 20,000 troops to Europe in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling into question whether a more robust presence in Europe would be necessary going forward.
In the preceding years, the Army had closed some of its permanent garrisons in Germany and replaced that posture with heel-to-toe rotational deployments.
And in Asia, the discussion of whether tens of thousands of permanently based troops in Japan and South Korea is the best way to deter China and North Korea has continued.
In 2021, the Army announced it would move an artillery headquarters from Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state to South Korea, while a previously rotational attack helicopter presence would also be permanently based in South Korea.
“I don’t think we’re looking to have fixed bases in fixed places, right?” a U.S. Indo-Pacific Command official told reporters in 2020. “I think that’s, one, too expensive. Two, I think that you rely, then, on all of the agreements that you have to have to do that, and time.”
“The Department is establishing a new framework for strategic readiness, enabling a more comprehensive, data-driven assessment and reporting of readiness to ensure greater alignment with NDS priorities,” the new document reads, but the senior defense official didn’t offer any details on what that should look like.
The strategy itself describes an approach where ships, aircraft and other capabilities will be deployed, keeping in mind that they must be preserved long enough to have a clean handoff when new technology goes operational, with no gaps in availability. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
27 Oct 22. Biden National Defense Strategy tackles China, Russia, nuke deterrence. The Biden administration laid out a national defense strategy aimed at China, which it views as America’s most consequential strategic competitor, and Russia, which it sees as an “acute threat” capable of cyber and missile attacks on the U.S.
The administration’s first National Defense Strategy highlights Beijing’s growing military strength as well as its provocative rhetoric and coercive activity toward Taiwan as part of a broader pattern across the Asia-Pacific region. The 80-page unclassified version comes six months after it was sent to Capitol Hill and two weeks after the White House released its long overdue National Security Strategy.
“The NDS bluntly describes Russia as an acute threat, and we chose the word ‘acute’ carefully,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters. “Unlike China, Russia can’t systemically challenge the United States over the long term, but Russian aggression does pose an immediate and sharp threat to our interests and values. And [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s reckless war of choice against Ukraine, the worst threat to European security since the end of World War II, has made that very clear for the whole world.”
Pentagon officials said they did not substantively change the strategy, which was completed in March, in response to Russia’s 8-month-old invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. has sent more than $17 bn in military aid to Ukraine, the fight has severely degraded Russian forces and Moscow is threatening to employ nuclear weapons.
A senior Pentagon official told reporters there was “overlap” between how the Pentagon is meeting challenges from both countries, particularly through investments in cyber, space and undersea capabilities, among others. “I like to think of it as the ‘two for one,’ if you will,” the official said.
The Pentagon is dealing with Russia’s threats to escalate the war in Ukraine, China’s reaffirmation of threats to annex Taiwan by force, an increasing alignment between the two, and mounting nuclear concerns from North Korea and Iran.
The Ukraine crisis delayed the rollout of the White House’s overarching National Security Strategy, which was released Oct. 12. The administration initially planned to release the strategy in February; that delay also encompassed the defense strategy.
The National Defense Strategy’s centerpiece is “integrated deterrence,” or coordinating military, diplomatic and economic levers from across the U.S. government to deter an adversary from taking an aggressive action. But it also stresses “campaigning” to build up the capability of international coalitions and complicate adversaries’ actions.
It also calls for making “the right technology investments” as it points to new threats from space weapons, tactical nuclear weapons, and new applications of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. Along with investments in directed-energy and hypersonic weapons, the strategy says it would be a “fast-follower” where market forces are driving commercialization of capabilities the military would use, like artificial intelligence, autonomy and renewable energy.
Nuclear competition
The Nuclear Posture Review, also released Thursday, emphasizes the need to modernize nuclear forces and highlights the dilemma of deterring two nuclear-armed competitors, Russia and China. It emphasizes the need to maintain robust nuclear command, control and communications through satellites and cyberspace.
Biden came to office championing nuclear weapons reduction, and the strategy stresses efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons. But administration officials acknowledged that arms control efforts have been stymied by China’s refusal to participate.
Though the document calls for the B83-1 nuclear gravity bomb to be retired and development of the sea-launched cruise missile to be halted, Congress appears poised to preserve the latter, amid support from top generals, through the 2023 defense policy bill. The administration is yet to decide on how it will approach its plan to retire the B83.
Administration officials previewing the strategy said the sea-launched cruise missile and gravity bomb had been deemed unnecessary after broad consultations in and outside the Defense Department.
When asked what message Putin would receive from any move to scuttle the nuclear-armed SLCM, Austin defended the U.S. nuclear arsenal’s ability to deter Russia.
“As you know, our inventory of nuclear weapons is significant. And so we determined, as we looked at our inventory, that that — you know, we did not need that capability,” Austin said of the SLCM-N. “We have a lot of capability in our nuclear inventory, and I don’t think that sends any message to Putin. He understands what our capability is.”
Global deployments
The strategy’s force-planning construct aims for the ability to respond to short, small-scale crises without substantially impairing its readiness for high-end conflicts with Russia and China.
“Our force posture will focus on the access and warfighting requirements that enable our efforts to deter potential PRC [People’s Republic of China] and Russian aggression against vital U.S. national interests, and to prevail in conflict if deterrence fails,” according to the document.
That will include investments in cyber, space and undersea capabilities in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, a senior defense official said, as well as exercises in those areas.
“And so as we understand our posture, how do we make sure that we don’t just think about sort of folks on the ground, which is just our more traditional view, but, for example, in our space capabilities?” the official said.
Though officials have been mum on any negotiations about changing the mix of forward-deployed and rotating troops abroad, defense officials in recent years have put both of those possibilities on the table.
“My advice would be to create permanent bases, but don’t permanently station,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee in April. “So you get the effect of permanence by rotational forces cycling through permanent bases.”
At the time, the U.S. had mobilized roughly 20,000 troops to Europe in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling into question whether a more robust presence in Europe would be necessary going forward.
In the preceding years, the Army had closed some of its permanent garrisons in Germany and replaced that posture with heel-to-toe rotational deployments.
And in Asia, the discussion of whether tens of thousands of permanently based troops in Japan and South Korea is the best way to deter China and North Korea has continued.
In 2021, the Army announced it would move an artillery headquarters from Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state to South Korea, while a previously rotational attack helicopter presence would also be permanently based in South Korea.
“I don’t think we’re looking to have fixed bases in fixed places, right?” a U.S. Indo-Pacific Command official told reporters in 2020. “I think that’s, one, too expensive. Two, I think that you rely, then, on all of the agreements that you have to have to do that, and time.”
“The Department is establishing a new framework for strategic readiness, enabling a more comprehensive, data-driven assessment and reporting of readiness to ensure greater alignment with NDS priorities,” the new document reads, but the senior defense official didn’t offer any details on what that should look like.
The strategy itself describes an approach where ships, aircraft and other capabilities will be deployed, keeping in mind that they must be preserved long enough to have a clean handoff when new technology goes operational, with no gaps in availability. (Source: Defense News)
27 Oct 22. DOD Releases National Defense Strategy, Missile Defense, Nuclear Posture Reviews. The Defense Department today for the first time released the public versions of three strategic documents — the National Defense Strategy, the Nuclear Posture Review and the Missile Defense Review — together after having developed both the classified and unclassified versions of all three in conjunction with one another.
Producing the documents together, said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, ensured tight linkages between DOD strategy and resources.
“By weaving these documents together, we help ensure that the entire department is moving forward together, matching our resources to our goals,” Austin said. “The strength and combat credibility of the joint force remains central to integrated deterrence.”
The 2022 National Defense Strategy, or NDS, places a primary focus on the need to sustain and strengthen U.S. deterrence against China. It also advances a focus on collaboration with a growing network of U.S. allies and partners on shared objectives.
In addition to addressing both China and an increase in the importance of partnerships, the NDS also takes into account the challenges posed by Russian — especially considering its invasion of Ukraine — along with threats posed by North Korea, Iran and violent extremist organizations. The NDS also includes a focus on challenges to security, such as pandemics and climate change.
The NDS lays out four top-level defense priorities the department must pursue. They include:
Defending the homeland, paced to the growing multi-domain threat posed by China
Deterring strategic attacks against the United States, allies, and partners
Deterring aggression while being prepared to prevail in conflict, when necessary; prioritizing the challenge posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region the Russia challenge in Europe
Building a resilient joint force and defense ecosystem
The NDS provides three ways to advance those priorities, Austin said. These include integrated deterrence, campaigning, and the building of an enduring advantage.
“We’re seamlessly integrating our deterrence efforts to make a basic truth crystal clear to any potential foe,” Austin said. “That truth is that the cost of aggression against the United States or our allies and partners far outweigh any conceivable games.”
To do that, the secretary said, the department is aligning its activities and investments across all theaters, across the full spectrum of conflict, and across all domains. This includes also space and cyberspace, he said.
With the U.S. nuclear capability remaining the “ultimate backstop” for strategic deterrence, the secretary said the department plans to continue modernization efforts on the nuclear triad. The fiscal 2023 budget request, for instance, includes some $34 bn to sustain and modernize nuclear forces, he said.
The budget request also includes more than $56 bn for air- power platforms and systems, more than $40 bn to maintain U.S. dominance at sea, and nearly $13 bn to support and modernize land forces.
“Integrated deterrence isn’t just about steps that we take on our own,” he said. “It also means working even more closely with our unparalleled network of allies and partners to deter aggression in region after region,” he said.
In the Indo-Pacific region, he said, that’s evident with the Australia, U.K., U.S., or AUKUS agreement, and in the trilateral cooperation agreement with Japan and Korea. Across the Atlantic, he said, partnerships that support integrated deterrence efforts include NATO and the recently created Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which helps support Ukraine’s self-defense goals.
Campaigning, Austin said, means conducting and sequencing the military activities which over time shift the security environment in favor of the United States.
“It means working to limit and disrupt malign activities by our competitors,” he said. “We’re building and exercising the forces that we’ll need in a crisis or a conflict, including requesting $135 bn dollars in last year’s budget to further invest in our readiness.”
To build an enduring advantage for the United States, Austin said, the department is working to further strengthen the foundations of the defense enterprise.
“Innovation is central here,” he said. “Last year, for instance, we established the Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve, which funds different parts of the department to work together to fill critical joint warfighting gaps. And our fiscal year 2023 budget request included more than $130 bn for research, development, testing and evaluation — that’s the largest R&D budget number in DOD history.”
The department is also working with industry partners to strengthen supply chains within the defense industrial base, and tackling the dangers of climate change, including ensuring that the military can continue to operate in both hotter and harsher environments.
“Above all, the NDS demands even deeper investments in our people,” Austin said. “They will always be this department’s most valuable resource and the bedrock of American security. And that’s why the president’s budget includes a 4.6% pay raise for service members starting January 1, 2023.”
The secretary announced in the Sept. 22 memorandum “Taking Care of Our Service Members and Families”, departmental efforts to better take care of both service members and their families, including efforts to make it easier to secure housing, to move to new duty stations, to find childcare, and help military spouses find work.
“Our outstanding service members and their families do everything that we ask of them and more,” Austin said. “Doing right by them is a national security imperative, and it’s a sacred trust. So, we’re looking forward to working with Congress to secure on-time appropriations to finalize this year’s National Defense Authorization Act, and to continue to implement this strategy.”
The classified versions of the NDS, NPR, and MDR were transmitted alongside the FY 2023 budget submission to Congress. The unclassified versions of the three documents are also available on DOD’s website. (Source: US DoD)
27 Oct 22. U.S. to scrap sea-launched nuclear missile despite military backing. The United States will stop developing nuclear-armed sea launched cruise missiles, Pentagon documents released on Thursday said, despite senior military officials publicly recommending keeping it.
The decision to cancel the submarine-launched cruise missile could help President Joe Biden address calls from fellow Democrats to scale back America’s nuclear arsenal without sacrificing major components of its nuclear “triad” of nuclear-tipped ground-based inter-continental ballistic missiles, nuclear-capable bomber aircraft and submarine-launched nuclear arms.
However, it is unclear if Congress, which could come under Republican control after next month’s elections, will resist the efforts to scrap it.
The Biden administration released three documents on Thursday: the National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review. Together, they laid out the military’s priorities for the coming years and underscored that Washington would maintain “a very high bar for nuclear employment.”
Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the military made a decision in 2018 to develop a new nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, with a focus on the threat from Russia.
But the Biden administration said in its review the sea-launched cruise missile program (SLCM-N) was unnecessary and would be cancelled because the United States already had the “means to deter limited nuclear use.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters the military did not need the SLCM-N because there was enough capability in the nuclear inventory already.
“I don’t think this sends any message to Putin. He understands what our capability is,” Austin said when asked if the scrapping would send a dangerous message to Russia and China.
In April, top U.S. general Mark Milley told lawmakers that his position on the SLCM-N had not changed and he believed multiple options were needed.
Asked whether any military officials had recommended canceling the SLCM-N, a senior U.S. defense official told a briefing that “everyone’s voices have been heard.” The official added the program was scrapped because even if it had been fully funded, the missiles would not be ready until 2035.
“As it stands right now, there is no need to develop SLCM-N,” the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said.
One program from the Trump administration that Biden is keeping is the W76-2 low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile, which the Pentagon fielded in 2020 to address Russia’s potential employment of similar-scale tactical nuclear weapons, the kind that Moscow has threatened to use in Ukraine to salvage its war there.
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments about using nuclear weapons to defend Russia, U.S. officials say they have not seen indications that Moscow is preparing to use them.
Putin on Wednesday observed exercises by Russia’s strategic nuclear forces, the Kremlin said. (Source: Reuters)
26 Oct 22. Space Force expects budget growth into 2024 amid ‘tremendous need.’ Following a 38% increase in its fiscal 2023 budget request, the U.S. Space Force expects the upward funding trajectory to continue next year, according to a senior official.
Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David Thompson said during an Oct. 25 Mitchell Institute event in Arlington, Va., that the service will require more resources as it looks to make its spacecraft and other systems more resilient and takes on tasks including space domain awareness and data exploitation.
“I can’t talk about the current budget process that we’re in, but you should not expect that emphasis and that understanding to change as we move into the future,” he said. “There’s tremendous need and tremendous opportunity for growth.”
Thompson said there has been strong support for the service from Congress and a recognition from the Biden administration.
“They’re providing the resources that we need to get after all of the missions — missions that we have to continue to do today, the pivot that we have to do to those more resilient architectures . . . missions that we didn’t do a decade ago that we now need to do to defend and protect our interests and capabilities,” he said.
In March, the Space Force requested $24.5bn in fiscal 2023, up from $17.4bn last year. Nearly half of that growth includes existing Department of Defense budget lines that transferred from elsewhere in the Pentagon. The proposal includes $15.8bn for research and development and $3.6bn to procure new capabilities.
Congress has yet to approve a defense spending package for the government fiscal year that started Oct. 1. The department is operating under a continuing resolution, which freezes funding at fiscal 2022 levels.
Thompson declined to discuss the details of the service’s fiscal 2024 budget request, which hasn’t been finalized by Pentagon leadership. An analysis of the Space Force’s future funding projections conducted by research firm Metrea Strategic Insights using publicly available data from the service’s budget justification documents shows that its topline request for next year could reach $27bn.
‘Exploit, buy and build’
As Thompson described, near-term budgets will largely be driven by the service’s need to maintain its current capabilities while transitioning to satellites and ground systems that are protected against threats from adversaries including China. While it will take time to develop and field the architecture the Space Force ultimately wants, the service is pushing to deliver some upgrades by 2026.
To achieve greater resiliency, leaders at Space Systems Command, the service’s acquisition arm, developed an “exploit, buy and build” mantra, emphasizing that before building something new, the service should consider how it can better use its current systems and what commercial industry may already be developing.
Brig. Gen. Timothy Sejba, program executive officer for space domain awareness and combat power and battle management, command and control, said during an Oct. 19 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association conference that this approach doesn’t mean the service won’t build new systems.
The demand for resiliency will likely lead to near-term budget and program decisions that prioritize leveraging existing capabilities, he said.
“We may have to make some tough choices as we look at what is required over the next three to four years to ensure our architecture is much more resilient going forward,” Sebja said. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
26 Oct 22. Pentagon setting up office to speed JADC2 integration across military. The Pentagon is establishing an office tasked with aligning and accelerating joint all-domain command and control, a multibillion-dollar effort meant to tie together all components of the U.S. military, from sensor to shooter.
The acquisition, integration and interoperability office will first look “at how we’re going to integrate, truly get JADC2 talking across the department,” according to Chris O’Donnell, deputy assistant secretary of defense for platform and weapon portfolio management.
The Army, Navy and Air Force each have their own approaches to the realization of JADC2. The Army has Project Convergence, the Navy has Project Overmatch and the Air Force has the Advanced Battle Management System. Uniting these efforts across land, air, sea, space and cyberspace is an office priority.
While there is already “great work going on,” there “needs to be more jointness, and we’re working toward that,” O’Donnell said Oct. 26 at a symposium hosted by the Association of Old Crows, a nonprofit specializing in electronic warfare and information operations.
O’Donnell’s comments come amid concerns expressed by defense officials, lawmakers and analysts that the military services are not on the same page, or are not sufficiently collaborating. A version of the annual defense bill included an audit of JADC2 progress and prices. Staffers described the measure as informative, not punitive.
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown in June met with fellow leaders from the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Space Force to assess JADC2 common ground and discuss advancements. The Air Force at the time said the summit underlined how seriously the Defense Department is taking cooperation.
The new office will be housed under the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
The Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office, which reached full operations in June, is also working on JADC2 data integration. It reports directly to the deputy secretary of defense, Kathleen Hicks.
O’Donnell on Wednesday said the military has “done an amazing job” addressing how critical information will be shuttled back-and-forth to all corners of the military, and how that information, once received, will be used to fight more effectively.
“I would never say the services are too siloed in their approach. The services are doing exactly what they need to support service needs,” he said. “They’re all talking to each other.” (Source: glstrade.com/Defense News)
25 Oct 22. Pelosi vows more Ukraine aid amid brewing congressional fight.
US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Speaker of the Croatian Parliament, Gordan Jandrokovic attend the International Crimea Platform summit, organised by Ukraine and Croatia, in Zagreb, on October 25, 2022.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., on Tuesday vowed that Congress would include more assistance for Ukraine as part of the annual government funding bill.
But it’s unclear whether she can actually make that happen amid growing opposition to additional Ukraine aid from House Republicans and a recent push from within her own caucus to jumpstart diplomatic engagement with Russia.
“Congress has secured over $60bn in security, economic, humanitarian and budget assistance for Ukraine,” Pelosi said in Croatia at the first parliamentary summit for Ukraine’s Crimea platform. “And more will be on the way when we pass our omnibus funding bill this fall.”
Her pledge came after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., indicated in an interview last week that the House would be less likely to pass generous Ukraine aid packages should his party win the November midterm elections.
“People are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy told Punchbowl News. “Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do, and it can’t be a blank check.”
His comments come amid a growing chorus of Republican voices aligned with former president Donald Trump who are increasingly skeptical of doling out such large amounts of cash for Ukraine.
Congress in March approved its first $13.6bn Ukraine supplemental aid package. Lawmakers tripled that funding in May through a $40bn package of military, economic and food aid for Ukraine and U.S. allies, with 57 House Republicans and 11 GOP senators voting against it. The third $12.35bn Ukraine aid package was passed last month as part of the continuing resolution to fund the government through December 16.
While McCarthy also told Punchbowl News that he hopes to avoid a government funding battle if Republicans take the House, he and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., are already coming under pressure from the conservative House Freedom Caucus to block Democrats from passing any omnibus spending bill – which would include Pelosi’s proposed Ukraine funding – in the lame duck period before January.
Whether or not Pelosi can pass a government funding bill and accompanying Ukraine aid package depends largely on McConnell because Senate Democrats will need 10 Republican votes to overcome the filibuster and pass any legislation. And McConnell has not weighed in on the Freedom Caucus’ demands.
However, McConnell put out a statement on Friday doubling down on his support for Ukraine aid and vowing that a Republican Senate would provide more aggressive packages than what President Joe Biden has asked for – potentially putting him at direct odds with a Republican House under McCarthy.
“A Republican majority in the Senate will focus its oversight on ensuring timely delivery of needed weapons and greater allied assistance to Ukraine,” McConnell wrote.
He argued that the Biden administration and NATO “need to do more to supply the tools Ukraine needs to thwart Russian aggression.”
“It is obvious this must include additional air defenses, long-range fires and humanitarian and economic support to help this war-torn country endure the coming winter,” he wrote in the statement.
Russia Diplomacy Push
Biden told reporters last week that he is “worried” about McCarthy’s comments and proceeded to blast the Republican leader at a political fundraiser in Philadelphia.
“It’s a lot bigger than Ukraine,” Biden told Democratic donors. “It’s Eastern Europe. It’s NATO. It’s really serious, serious consequential outcomes.”
The president has also come under pressure from the left flank of his party to jumpstart diplomatic negotiations with Russia, with 29 Democrats signing onto a letter to Biden spearheaded by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., on Monday.
“We urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire,” the 30 Democrats – all of whom have voted in favor of Ukraine aid – wrote in the letter, first obtained by the Washington Post.
But on Tuesday Jayapal issued a statement retracting the letter, claiming that it was first drafted over the summer before staffers sent it to the White House this week without vetting.
“Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by [McCarthy] threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over,” Jayapal said in the retraction statement.
National Security Council strategic communications adviser John Kirby on Monday blamed Putin for the lack of diplomacy and said the U.S. would not engage Russia without Ukraine.
“It’s clear Mr. Putin is in no mood to negotiate,” Kirby told reporters on a press call. “We understand that. We have said from the very beginning of this that nothing about Ukraine will happen without Ukraine. In other words, we’re not going to have conversations with Russian leadership without the Ukrainian speakers, and that remains the policy and the approach.
A Pentagon report submitted to Congress in May, as required under the $40bn Ukraine supplemental, downplayed the need for a diplomatic strategy and instead outlined the Biden administration’s focus on Russia sanctions, arming Kyiv and bolstering NATO’s eastern flank.
The report stressed that the Biden administration would defer to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on diplomatic matters but noted that “diplomacy requires both sides engaging in good faith to deescalate, and we have seen no signs Vladimir Putin is prepared to stop the onslaught of atrocities.”
The progressive Democrats who signed the now-retracted letter acknowledged “the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine” but called for pursuing “every diplomatic avenue” to end the war.
“Such a framework would presumably include incentives to end hostilities, including some form of sanctions relief, and bring together the international community to establish security guarantees for a free and independent Ukraine that are acceptable for all parties, particularly Ukrainians,” they wrote. (Source: Defense News)
23 Oct 22. Allies, Modernization at Heart of U.S.-Japan Efforts in Indo-Pacific. The international rules-based order that served the world well, is under attack and the United States and Japan need to work even closer together to defend, maintain and strengthen the order, Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs said.
Ratner spoke remotely to the Mount Fuji Dialogue — an annual meeting of experts on the U.S.-Japan Alliance in Tokyo.
The most egregious attack on the rules-based international order emanates from the other side of the world from Japan with Russia’s unprovoked and evil attack on Ukraine. He said the attack has had “far-reaching geopolitical, economic and humanitarian implications. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an affront to free people everywhere, and its impact has been felt far beyond Europe by constituting a challenge to the order that we’ve all worked so hard to build and defend.”
He commended Japan for seeing the attack for what is: A challenge to the international community. “The United States and Japan, along with the international community, have condemned Russia’s invasion, imposed sanctions on Russian entities, and sent necessary aid to Ukraine,” he said. “Japan’s quick and strong actions helped transform the international response from regional to global. Through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the United States and our allies and partners are exploring innovative ways to sustain our long-term support for the brave men and women of the Ukrainian armed forces, and to ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to defend itself.”
The unity against Russia is a model for challenges everywhere. “In the Indo-Pacific, a key takeaway from this conflict is that aggression of any kind will be met with unity of action, as we have seen more than 30 of our allies and partners, including from the Indo-Pacific, join us in rushing security assistance to Ukraine,” he said.
Ratner turned to China’s continuing challenges to the order in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
China’s overreaction to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August is a concern throughout the region. “Following Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in early August, China launched an intensified and premeditated pressure campaign against Taiwan to try to change the status quo, jeopardizing peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said.
China’s aggressive and coercive military activities in the Taiwan Strait and in waters surrounding Japan … are provocative and destabilizing, he said. China is seeking to establish a “new normal” concerning Taiwan, and this threatens regional peace and security.
“Meanwhile, over the last year, we have seen a dramatic increase in People’s Liberation Army non-standard and unsafe air intercepts in the region, designed to coerce and intimidate U.S. and allied forces operating lawfully in international airspace,” he said.
Japan and the United States, and partners have been absolutely clear that China’s attempts at coercion of Taiwan and throughout the broader region are dangerous and destabilizing, the assistant secretary said. “We are equally clear about our commitment to maintaining a rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific, as well as working together with our like-minded allies and partners to preserve cross-Strait peace and stability,” Ratner said. “We will not be deterred by the PRC’s brazen attempts at coercion, and we will continue to fly, sail and operate — including with our allies and partners — wherever international law allows.”
North Korea is a third threat with its continuing development of nuclear weapons and its missile program in violation of international law, he said. “These hostile activities are dangerous, reckless and damaging to regional and international security,” Ratner said. “Moreover, we share serious concerns over the DPRK’s escalatory and destabilizing messaging related to nuclear weapons use.”
These threats call for responses and the United States and Japan are working together to strengthen the treaty alliance between the two nations and modernize deterrence capabilities. “We are fundamentally enhancing the alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities to ensure that we maintain a competitive edge,” Ratner said. “This includes reinforcing extended and integrated deterrence, improving information and cyber security, deepening cooperation in space, cyber and emerging technologies, and coordinating on bilateral planning for contingencies.”
Spotlight: Engineering in the DODThe two allies are working to increase military interoperability. They are working to develop new capabilities and improve more established ones.
“We are working with the Government of Japan to enhance alliance capabilities to keep pace with the growing regional security challenges,” he said. “As the PLA is rapidly improving many of its capabilities, including strike, air, missile-defense, anti-submarine warfare and space and cyber, the United States and Japan are stepping up efforts to cooperate on advanced and emerging technologies, such as unmanned systems and counter-hypersonic technologies.”
Spotlight: Science & TechRatner said the United States welcomes Japan’s commitment to resourcing these strategies and programs. “As the government of Japan is preparing to release an update to its strategic guidance documents, including the National Security Strategy, National Defense Program Guidelines and Medium-Term Defense Program, we welcome Japan’s commitment to increase defense spending to bolster its military capabilities,” he said. “We also support Japan’s resolve to examine all options necessary for national defense, including capabilities to counter missile threats. Throughout this process, we are committed to aligning both of our countries’ strategies and policies in the year ahead.”
But even economic powers like the United States and Japan cannot do everything and the nations are committed to working with like-minded partners in the region and beyond, Ratner said. These allies and partners realize the stakes in challenges to the rules-based order and are responding.
Promoting peace and stability in a region that encompasses more than 50 percent of the globe requires cooperation.
Australia is a key part of this, and both the United States and Japan are deepening these ties. “Earlier this year, Japan and Australia signed a reciprocal access agreement, establishing procedures for cooperative activities that will promote increased defense cooperation between the two countries’ defense forces,” he said. “Looking ahead, we have agreed to enhance training opportunities the three countries, promote coordinated responses to regional disasters and crises, and deepen cooperation on maritime capacity building and intelligence sharing.”
The United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea have also been strengthening the trilateral relationship in the face of North Korean provocations.
Ratner noted that President Joe Biden, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony Blinken specifically underscored the importance of working together to address North Korea’s destabilizing behavior and advance the goal of achieving the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Exercises are an important part in the cooperation among the nations of the region. The United States, Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and many other nations have exercised together on land, sea and air. The nations are working on ways to better communicate, share information, supply each other and more.
The United States and Japan are also committed to working with the Quad — India, Australia, Japan and the United States. “At the most recent Quad Leaders’ Summit in Tokyo in May, we welcomed a major maritime initiative called the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness,” Ratner said. “In close consultations with regional partners, will offer a near-real-time, integrated and cost-effective maritime domain awareness picture to countries throughout the region.”
This network of allies and partners can be effective defending the rules-based order. “This burgeoning set of activities demonstrates a shared desire among like-minded countries to increase multilateral engagements as the security environment surrounding Japan and its neighbors becomes more turbulent,” Ratner said. “Our trilateral relationships, with Australia and with the ROK, in addition to our efforts to work with the Quad, Southeast Asian, and Pacific Island countries, are vital to promoting regional stability, advancing the free and open Indo-Pacific vision and upholding the rules-based international order in the face of coercive attempts to change the status quo.” (Source: US DoD)
20 Oct 22. DOJ makes arrests in plot to send US military tech to Putin regime. Nearly a dozen people, including five Russian nationals and two oil brokers from Venezuela, were arrested and charged in a scheme to send American military technology to Russia, some of which has been allegedly found on battlefields in Ukraine, according to the Justice Department.
Federal prosecutors, with help from the department’s Task Force KleptoCapture, revealed two separate indictments yesterday. The task force was stood up earlier this year to enforce sanctions against the Russian elite.
“As I have said, our investigators and prosecutors will be relentless in their efforts to identify, locate, and bring to justice those whose illegal acts undermine the rule of law and enable the Russian regime to continue its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in the release.
The charges come as the U.S. looks to crack down on Russia and its allies as the war in Ukraine continues into its eighth month.
In the first case, filed in the Eastern District of New York, Russian nationals Yury Orekhov and Svetlana Kuzurgasheva are charged with creating shell companies to illegally send military tech and oil to U.S.-sanctioned Russian buyers.
Orekhov and Kuzurgasheva used their fake German business to purchase a wide range of sensitive American military tech, including advanced semiconductors and microprocessors used in fighter aircraft, missile systems, smart munitions, radar, satellites and other space-based military applications, according to the release.
The defendants allegedly caused U.S. banks to illegally process tens of ms of dollars to facilitate the transactions and sent the tech to Russians Timofey Telegin and Sergey Tulyakov, who are also being indicted.
Some of the electronic components obtained in the scheme were found in Russian weapons platforms seized in Ukraine, the release said.
In 2019, Orekhov also allegedly traveled to the U.S. to source parts used in a Russian-made fighter aircraft and the American F-22 Raptor.
Additionally, Orekhov and Artem Uss, who is the son of a Russian governor, used the fake business — with help from oil brokers Juan Fernando Serrano Ponce and Juan Carlos Soto — to smuggle hundreds of ms of barrels of oil to Russia and China from Venezuela.
Orekhov and Uss were arrested Monday in Germany and Italy, respectively, and are in the process of being extradited to the U.S., the release said. The U.S. Treasury Department also sanctioned Orekhov and two of his companies yesterday.
The defendants are charged with an array of counts, including conspiracy to defraud the U.S. If convicted, they could face more than 30 years in prison.
In a related case, filed in the District of Connecticut, a group of Latvians and other foreign individuals are charged with conspiring to violate U.S. export laws and smuggle a machine called a jig grinder — which can be used in nuclear proliferation and defense programs — into Russia.
The Latvians and others were arrested in Riga, Latvia, on Tuesday and are in the process of being extradited to the U.S., the release said.
“The FBI, along with our U.S. and international partners, will continue to aggressively disrupt the procurement of oil, laundered money, and unlawfully obtained military technology from U.S. companies to support Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in the release. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
20 Oct 22. US Seventh Fleet continues “experimentation” with assault carriers. The US Navy is looking at different combinations of embarked air wing to enable its LHA vessels to operate as aircraft carriers. The US Navy’s trials in operating its landing helicopter assault (LHA) flattops as mini aircraft carriers, as seen with the America-class USS Tripoli earlier this year, could provide a “neat capability”, according to the commander of the US Seventh Fleet.
During trials with the USS Tripoli some 14 F-35B fifth generation stealth fighters were embarked onto the vessel, along with multiple rotary assets, to flesh out operational concepts in integrating such “assault carriers” into the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, which is based in the western Pacific. The vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) nature of the F-35Bs enable the aircraft to operate from a variety of warships as they do not require the traditional catapult and wire recovery system.
Presenting during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event on 14 October, Vice Admiral Karl Thomas described the LHAs as a “versatile instrument” that could be re-roled depending on the makeup of the embarked air wing.
Thomas added that the service was “still in the experimentation phase” in determining how to integrate an assault carrier-configured LHA with the US Navy’s more conventional nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarriers deployed in the region.
Japan, a key regional ally for the US, is also exploring ways in which to integrate the F-35B fighter onto its Izumo-class helicopter destroyers, effectively helicopter carriers, which will see the vessels modified to enable the operation of the VTOL aircraft. The capability is expected to come online in the 2024 timeframe, returning Japan to the fixed-wing carrier aviation business.
The UK is also an operator of the F-35B from its Queen Elizabeth-class carriers, although displacing some 72,000 tons (full load) the type is far larger than either the Izumo class (27,000 tons full load) or the America-class LHA ships (45,000 tons full load).
Lessons from the Fitzgerald and John McCain
Vice Admiral Thomas said the US Seventh Fleet was looking to crew its vessels to 100% of requirement, although the service was running around “93-95% fit and full” at present.
Meanwhile, lessons learned from the accidents of the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS John McCain and USS Fitzgerald in August 2017 and June 2017 respectively, which resulted in a combined 17 fatalities in collisions with civilian vessels, meant that thorough crew certification was now required before deployment.
Thomas said crews would not be allowed “inside the first island chain” without having cleared the required ship operating certifications, due in part to the contested nature of the region as China seeks push its dominance ever further afield.
“We run our forces hard, no doubt about that,” said Thomas, adding that the South and East China Sea were “very challenging theatres”. (Source: naval-technology.com)
27 Oct 22. Two Arrested and 13 Charged in Three Separate Cases for Alleged Participation in Malign Schemes in the United States on Behalf of the Government of the People’s Republic of China. In three separate cases in the U.S. Attorneys’ Offices for the Eastern District of New York and the District of New Jersey, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has charged 13 individuals, including members of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) security and intelligence apparatus and their agents, for alleged efforts to unlawfully exert influence in the United States for the benefit of the government of the PRC.
- United States v. Dong He, et al., Eastern District of New York: A criminal complaint has been unsealed in federal court in Brooklyn charging two People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence officers with attempting to obstruct a criminal prosecution in the Eastern District of New York. The defendants remain at large. According to court documents, Dong He, aka Guochun He and aka Jacky He, and Zheng Wang, aka Zen Wang, allegedly orchestrated a scheme to steal files and other information from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York related to the ongoing federal criminal investigation and prosecution of a global telecommunications company (Company-1) based in the PRC, including by paying a $41,000 Bitcoin bribe to a U.S. government employee who the defendants believed had been recruited to work for the PRC, but who in fact was a double agent working on behalf of the FBI.
- United States v. Wang Lin et al., District of New Jersey: A federal indictment has been unsealed charging four Chinese nationals, including three Ministry of State Security (MSS) intelligence officers, in connection with a long-running intelligence campaign targeting individuals in the United States to act as agents of the PRC. As alleged in the indictment, from at least 2008 to 2018, Wang Lin, 59; Bi Hongwei, age unknown; Dong Ting, aka Chelsea Dong, 40; Wang Qiang, 55, and others engaged in a wide-ranging and systematic effort to target and recruit individuals to act on behalf of the PRC in the United States with requests to provide information, materials, equipment, and assistance to the Chinese government in ways that would further China’s intelligence objectives. These recruitment efforts included targeting professors at universities, a former federal law enforcement and state homeland security official, and others to act on behalf of, and as agents of, the Chinese government. As part of the conspiracy, MSS intelligence officers Wang Lin, Dong Ting, and others used a purported academic institute at Ocean University of China – referred to as the Institute for International Studies (IIS) – as cover for their clandestine intelligence activities. Acting under cover as the purported director of the IIS, Wang Lin, in coordination with other MSS operatives operating under the guise of academics at the IIS, targeted professors at American universities and others in the United States with access to sensitive information and equipment. According to the indictment unsealed today, MSS intelligence officers Wang Lin, Bi, Dong, and others, acting for and on behalf of the MSS and the Chinese government, systematically targeted United States persons, including but not limited to a coconspirator who was a resident of the state of New Jersey and a second individual who was a former federal law enforcement officer and state homeland security official and a professor at an American university. See also this separate DOJ press release.
- United States v. Quanzhong An, et al., Eastern District of New York: An eight-count indictment has been unsealed in Brooklyn charging a total of seven nationals of the PRC – Quanzhong An, 55, of Roslyn, New York; Guangyang An, 34, of Roslyn, New York; Tian Peng, 38, of the PRC; Chenghua Chen of the PRC; Chunde Ming of the PRC; Xuexin Hou, 52, of the PRC; and Weidong Yuan, 55, of the PRC – with participating in a scheme to cause the forced repatriation of a PRC national residing in the United States. The lead defendant, Quanzhong An, allegedly acted at the direction and under the control of various officials with the PRC’s government’s Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection (Provincial Commission) – including Peng, Chen, Ming, and Hou – to conduct surveillance of and engage in a campaign to harass and coerce a U.S. resident to return to the PRC as part of an international extralegal repatriation effort known as “Operation Fox Hunt.” (Source: glstrade.com)
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