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12 Dec 24. NATO chief warns that Putin wants long-term confrontation with Europe. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to “wipe Ukraine off the map” and could come after other parts of Europe next, as he urged Europeans to press their governments to ramp up defense spending.
“It is time to shift to a wartime mindset,” Rutte told security experts and analysts at the Carnegie Europe think-tank in Brussels. He said people should gird themselves for the prospect that Russia might try to use “swarms of drones” in Europe as it has to deadly effect in Ukraine.
Putin “is trying to crush our freedom and way of life,” Rutte said. The former Dutch prime minister listed Russia’s attacks on Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and the all-out invasion launched almost three years ago.
“How many more wake-up calls do we need? We should be profoundly concerned. I know I am,” he said. “Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation. With Ukraine, and with us.”
Rutte’s inaugural speech came just over two months after he took office as NATO’s top civilian official. He has since toured the capitals of the 32 allies, including a visit with President-elect Donald Trump in the United States, NATO’s most powerful ally.
NATO has been a staunch backer of Ukraine and has helped most of its members funnel weapons, ammunition and other support into the country. But Trump’s return, and pledge to end the war quickly, has fueled concern that an unfavorable truce might be forced on Ukraine.
Trump routinely complains that U.S. allies in NATO are not spending enough on defense. Rutte said Russia’s military spending is likely to amount to 7 to 8% of its GDP next year -– far more than any NATO ally –- while its defense industry churns out tanks, armored vehicles and ammunition.
Putin also has the support of allies like China, Iran and North Korea.
Rutte noted that defense spending has risen sharply in Europe, with 23 allies expected to reach NATO’s target of putting 2% of GDP into their military budgets. But he added: “I can tell you, we are going to need a lot more than 2%.”
Rutte listed a series of recent “hostile actions” by Russia against NATO allies, including cyber-attacks, assassinations, an explosion at a Czech ammunition depot, the jamming of radars in the Baltic region to disrupt air traffic, and the “weaponization” of migrants to destabilize Europe.
“These attacks are not just isolated incidents. They are the result of a coordinated campaign to destabilize our societies and discourage us from supporting Ukraine,” he said. “They circumvent our deterrence and bring the front line to our front doors.”
Beyond increased defense spending in Europe, Rutte noted that NATO now has tens of thousands of troops on high readiness should they been needed to defend allied territory.
“With all this, our deterrence is good -– for now. But it’s tomorrow I’m worried about,” he said, and warned that “we are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. Danger is moving towards us at full speed.”
“What is happening in Ukraine could happen here too, and regardless of the outcome of this war, we will not be safe in the future unless we are prepared to deal with danger,” Rutte added.
Rutte appealed to governments provide the defense industry with “the big orders and long-term contracts they need to rapidly produce more and better capabilities.” He urged industry to boost production for defenses against drones and other new war tactics.
He added that “freedom does not come for free” to the estimated 1 bn people living in the Euro-Atlantic area.
“If we don’t spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much, much higher price later to fight it. Not billions, but trillions of euros. That’s if we come out on top, and that’s if we win,” he said. (Source: Defense News)
12 Dec 24. Defense firms follow Lithuania’s allure of making ammo sans red tape. Lithuania’s offer to lower administrative hurdles for foreign defense companies seeking to set up shop in the Baltic state has found several takers in major Western defense manufacturers.
The response comes after the Lithuanian government approved new legal amendments aimed at simplifying and shortening the procedures required for international companies to build local plants for cranking out ammunition.
Officials introduced a new category of investment projects, which grants large-scale production projects in the defense sector the status of “pressing national security needs,” and allows them to take advantage of regulatory exemptions.
The first company to have taken the bite is Germany’s Rheinmetall, which has already begun the construction of a production plant for 155mm artillery ammunition in Baisogala, Lithuania. The 340 hectares facility will include a shell manufacturing and load assembly pack, set to start operations in mid-2026.
It is expected to be able to supply an annual rate of “tens of thousands of 155mm calibre artillery,” a portion of which will be procured for the Lithuanian Armed Forces, states a Rheinmetall press release.
Agnė Raščiūtė, head of communications at Invest Lithuania, an organization of the country’s Ministry of Economy, told Defense News that at least five other companies have expressed interest to use the same legislative path.
Among them is the American multinational aerospace and defense firm Northrop Grumman, which signed a cooperation agreement with the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense in September to produce 30mm medium-caliber ammunition for infantry fighting vehicles in Vilnius.
“We hope that the cooperation with our American allies will strengthen the country’s security and preparedness, while also benefiting the wider region, including Ukraine,” Gintarė Skaistė, Lithuania’s minister of finance, said at the signing of the agreement.
The partnership was announced only a few weeks before Lithuania purchased an additional 27 Boxer-Vilkas combat vehicles via the Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation, or OCCAR.
As per the requirements outlined by the Lithuanian military, the vehicles are to be equipped with U.S.-made 30mm MK-44S cannons as well as long-range, anti-tank missiles produced by Israel.
Given the significant demand for weapons and ammunition, other parties interested in Lithuania include an unspecified Ukrainian company looking to build an advanced explosives production plant in the Baltic state, Raščiūtė said.
Last month, Ukrainian and Lithuanian authorities signed several agreements for the countries’ defense companies to cooperate on weapons and ammunition production.
The envisioned areas of cooperation include the manufacture of drones, naval systems, electronic-warfare systems and the production of shells and explosives.
“If the allies are still questioning the rights and limits of the use of the weapons they supply, we need to think creatively and help Ukraine to make its own weapons – this is one of the areas of cooperation we are developing,” Laurynas Kasčiūnas, the Lithuanian Minister of National Defense, said. (Source: glstrade.com/Defense News)
12 Dec 24. British troops thanked for defending Polish airspace as successful air defence deployment concludes. The operation has concluded after more than two years of successfully protecting Polish airspace.
British personnel have been thanked for their work in supporting the defence of Poland’s airspace, as the UK’s Sky Sabre air defence deployment comes to an end. Initially planned as a six-month deployment in 2022, the operation has been extended four times, playing an important role in boosting NATO’s eastern flank and strengthening the alliance’s security in light of Russian aggression in the region, and in close co-ordination with Polish and other allied forces.
Sky Sabre will be reconstituted in the UK, ensuring that the UK Armed Forces has flexibility on operational requirements in future, including training more personnel on the system.
UK and Polish troops marked the end of the two-year deployment of the Sky Sabre system at a ceremony in Rzeszów, Poland, last week.
The conclusion of the deployment was marked by a joint visit from Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard MP and Polish Secretary of State Paweł Zalewski. The Minister for the Armed Forces thanked British service personnel who have been deployed alongside Sky Sabre over the previous 2 years.
Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard MP said: “This operation has been a huge success. The Sky Sabre system played an important role in defending Poland’s airspace. Our outstanding Armed Forces personnel keep us secure at home and strong abroad and I’d like to thank them for their professionalism and hard work during this extended deployment, I’d also like to welcome them home for some well-deserved rest with their loved ones over the Christmas period. The UK remains unshakeable in its commitment to defending our NATO allies, and we will continue to work closely with our Polish Allies, including through a deployment of RAF Typhoons next year. We continue to work with our Polish friends to deliver the NAREW programme.”
The NAREW programme is a collaboration between UK firm MBDA and Polish defence company PGZ, which will see Poland receive more than 1,000 Common Anti-Air Modular Missiles – Extended Range (CAMM-ER) and over 100 iLaunchers.
These will boost Poland’s ability to defend itself against modern threats, including cruise missiles and fighter jets, at ranges of more than 40 kilometres.
The programme is also a boost to the UK’s defence industry, creating growth and opportunities back home and reaffirming our commitment to defending Poland and NATO’s eastern flank.
Since Sky Sabre’s initial deployment in 2022, Poland have continued to develop their long-term defence projects alongside the UK and our allies, which includes a new £4bn defence agreement with the UK defence industry, that will protect their airspace and NATO’s eastern flank for years to come.
The UK will continue to play an active role in defending Poland’s air space. Next year, the Royal Air Force will take part in a NATO Air Policing mission in Poland, deterring our adversaries above NATO’s eastern flank.
The UK-led DIAMOND initiative, which Poland is part of, will improve NATO’s integrated air and missile defence by ensuring that the different air defence systems across the Alliance operate better and more jointly across Europe. The UK launched this initiative at the October meeting of NATO Defence Ministers this year.
In October, the Army deployed specialist engineers to support the Polish authorities deal with devastating floods that hit the country. The British Army also has more than 100 permanently deployed troops in country, as part of the UK’s enhance forward presence. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
11 Dec 24. EIB approves €15.6bn of financing including new credit lines and guarantees for security and defence.
EIB approves €15.6bn of financing including new credit lines and guarantees for security and defence
- EIB to deploy €1bn in credit lines and guarantees for small and medium-sized firms in security and defence supply chains
- Operational Plan agreed to increase investment up to €95 bn in 2025
- EIB Board of Directors backs emergency energy investment in Ukraine and financing for flood recovery across Europe
The European Investment Bank (EIB) approved €15.6bn of new financing in areas ranging from security and defence to energy supply and flood protection.
The EIB Board of Directors agreed a €1bn dedicated programme to provide credit and guarantees to finance investments and working capital of SMEs businesses active in the supply chains of Europe’s security and defence industry.
“We are stepping up support to Europe’s security and defence industry. During 2024 we have already enlarged the scope of dual-use projects eligible for financing and today we are launching a dedicated programme to support SMEs in the supply chain of large European contractors, ” said EIB Group President Nadia Calviño. “Activity is picking up and we are confident that investment will accelerate during 2025 with a solid pipeline of European projects contributing to peace, security and strategic autonomy.”
The Board of Directors also approved the EIB Group “Operational Plan” 2025-2027. This anticipates a maximum signature volume of up to €95 bn in 2025, a significant increase over previous years.
This ambitious and flexible plan, designed to be adapted to reflect changing priorities and needs. It includes record financing for higher risk activities and foresees the development of a Tech-EU programme to scale up venture debt capital investment and other instruments to support innovative companies and start-ups involved in clean technologies, artificial intelligence, chips, high-performance and quantum computing, health sciences and neurotechnology.
The Operational Plan outlines ways to strengthen Europe’s competitiveness and better protect Europe from global economic and security threats. It focuses on delivery and impact along the eight core investment priorities laid out in the EIB Group’s Strategic Roadmap endorsed by EU finance ministers.
Energy, water and anti-flood support
The Board also approved new financing to support energy, water, flood- protection and climate projects totalling €8.9bn.
This includes €6.8bn for energy investment, including district heating and private-sector renewable projects in France, urgent energy infrastructure reinforcement and repair in Ukraine, storage of renewable and battery energy in Greece, solar power in Italy, wind power in Cabo Verde and renewable energy in Latin America. It also covers electricity transmission and distribution in Spain, France, Portugal and the Netherlands as well as hydropower in Spain, Ghana and Burundi.
This part of the package includes a €1bn initiative to accelerate flood recovery and strengthen resilience across Europe as well as to support small-scale sustainable development projects in northern France.
The Board also approved €1.2bn of financing for water investment to increase treatment capacity in France, Hungary and Spain, reduce ocean pollution in Angola and Benin and increase water supply in Bangladesh and India.
Corporate innovation and business investment
New financing of €2.9bn is earmarked for business innovation, business and agricultural investment. This includes research and development in the steel industry, lithium production for batteries using renewable energy and business investment in France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland and Cote d’Ivoire and agriculture in Spain and Cambodia.
Railways and roads
The Board approved €1.5bn in financing for railway and road investment. This covers projects to acquire electric trains, upgrade coaches and replace outdated rolling stock on intercity routes in Poland.
The Board also backed funding for upgrading ports in Spain as well as airports in Germany and the Netherlands and for improving roads in Cyprus and Laos.
Background information
The European Investment Bank (ElB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. It finances investments that contribute to EU policy objectives. EIB projects bolster competitiveness, drive innovation, promote sustainable development, enhance social and territorial cohesion, and support a just and swift transition to climate neutrality.
The EIB Group, which also includes the European Investment Fund (EIF), signed a total of €88 bn in new financing for over 900 projects in 2023. These commitments are expected to mobilise around €320bn in investment, supporting 400,000 companies and 5.4m jobs.
12 Dec 24. European Nato members are holding talks about increasing the alliance’s target for defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP. (Source: FT.com)
10 Dec 24. Former human rights lawyer Phil Shiner spared jail over Iraq War fraud charges. A former human rights lawyer has been spared jail over fraud charges linked to false abuse claims made against British troops in Iraq.
Phil Shiner was struck off as a solicitor in 2017 at a tribunal after being found guilty of misconduct and dishonesty relating to false claims against veterans of the Iraq War.
At Southwark Crown Court, the 67-year-old was handed a two-year jail sentence suspended for two years for three counts of fraud, after previously admitting that an agent acting on his behalf had been cold-calling potential clients in Iraq.
Judge Christopher Hehir said “although there was obvious dishonesty”, he did not think the former lawyer was “motivated by personal greed”.
Sentencing Shiner, who was the principal solicitor of the law firm Public Interest Lawyers, Judge Hehir said: “He got carried away with enthusiasm by his client’s cause and his judgement suffered as a result.”
Addressing Shiner, who had been made bankrupt, the judge said: “You have already suffered professional and personal ruin and I do not consider it necessary to add to that by sending you straight to prison.”
He added: “You, better than most, will understand what a suspended sentence order means.”
The judge said the offending had taken place “a very long time ago” and Shiner had “not reoffended since”, adding that he had character references from “people of considerable distinction”.
Richard Thomas KC, mitigating, said Shiner had “suffered professional ruin”.
Shiner had made an application to the Legal Services Commission in 2007 in which he sought up to £200,000 of legal aid funding for his firm to represent clients including Khuder Al-Sweady, in an application for judicial review.
According to the National Crime Agency (NCA), he received around £3m in the value of the contract, and the ensuing Al-Sweady inquiry into allegations of mistreatment and unlawful killing of Iraqi nationals by British troops cost the taxpayer £24m.
The inquiry found that Mr Al-Sweady’s nephew, Hamid Al-Sweady, had been killed “outright” while fighting, and had been a “willing and active” participant in an attack on British forces.
It concluded that the most serious claims of murder and torture were “entirely false” and the product of “deliberate lies”.
During sentencing, the judge told the court: “The defendant isn’t being sentenced for anything that happened at the Al-Sweady inquiry, nor can it be said the judicial proceedings of the Al-Sweady inquiry in any sense represent harm.
“They were part of a judicial process that in the end led to some very firm conclusions.”
In making his application to the Legal Services Commission, Shiner failed to disclose that an agent acting on his behalf and with his knowledge had been cold-calling and making unsolicited approaches to potential clients in Iraq.
He also failed to disclose that he was paying referral fees, which is not permitted as part of gaining a legal aid contract.
Financial redress scheme
Armed forces solicitor Hilary Meredith-Beckham is calling for a financial redress scheme for Armed Forces veterans falsely accused of hideous war crimes in Iraq.
Hilary Meredith-Beckham, founder and chair of Hilary Meredith Solicitors, provided evidence to the Defence Select Committee on the Iraq historic abuse cases, which ultimately contributed to the closure of the Iraq Historic Allegations Team (IHAT), and is representing veterans falsely accessed of brutality and abuses against Iraqi civilians.
In light of Shiner’s conviction, Mrs Meredith-Beckham is calling on the government to apologise to those falsely accused and put in place a financial redress scheme.
“As a result of Shiner’s criminal conduct, thousands of British soldiers were falsely and maliciously accused of war crimes. He instigated a witch hunt based on deceit.
“The accusations against British troops were totally false, and Shiner illegally pocketed millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money pursuing them.”
She added: “The falsely accused have paid a huge price – shattered lives, broken marriages, ruined finances, stalled careers, poor mental and physical health.
“It is abundantly clear that the MOD breached the duty of care it owes to our service personnel and veterans.
“They owe a duty of care in law, under the military covenant, morally and ethically to stand by those who serve. Instead, they allowed IHAT to pursue innocent troops with false evidence of vile war crimes.
“It is now time for the current government to draw a line under this shameful episode, apologise and introduce a financial redress scheme.
“There is absolutely no need for this process to become mired in litigation with lawyers talking to lawyers and our brave servicemen and women forced to relive their worst nightmares in court. It is time for the government to do the right thing.”
Brian Wood, the Military Cross-winning former soldier, is backing Hilary Meredith-Beckham’s call for a financial redress scheme.
He said: “The allegations were absolutely horrific – unlawful killing, mutilation and mistreatment of prisoners of war. That just did not happen.
“Phil Shiner’s criminal conduct has left a trail of devastation. Lives have been ruined. Innocent men and women have been driven to the brink of suicide.
“I fully support Hilary Meredith-Beckham’s call for a financial redress scheme. Today, the legal system dealt with Phil Shiner. Now it needs to stand up for the men and woman whose lives he destroyed.”
‘Disgusted’
A former soldier said he was “pretty disgusted” by the decision to give Shiner a suspended sentence.
Robert Campbell, who was a major in the Royal Engineers, was accused of drowning Iraqi teenager Saeed Shabram in a river in Basra in May 2003 and was scrutinised in eight investigations, including one for possible manslaughter, before he was ultimately cleared.
Speaking outside court, Mr Campbell said: “The listing in court was a very benign documents case that didn’t reflect the human element of what he has done in the slightest.
“Of course, he should have gone to jail. His poison has spread far beyond the Iraq War.”
Sian Mitchell, a CPS specialist prosecutor, said Shiner “defrauded a statutory legal body for his own selfish motives”.
Ms Mitchell added: “As a result of the deliberate failure to disclose his serious breaches of the rules governing legal aid and his professional code of conduct, Shiner was able to retain his highly lucrative legal aid contract and obtain taxpayer-funded legal aid payments.”
The CPS has commenced confiscation proceedings to reclaim the proceeds of the fraud. (Source: forces.net)
BATTLESPACE Comment: This decision not to imprison Shiner is a disgrace and shows how the legal profession looks after their own! This man ruined the lives of numerous military families for his own good and greed, he should go away for ever! We hope this is appealed.
09 Dec 24. Readout of Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks’ Meeting With UK Permanent Under Secretary for the Ministry of Defence David Williams at the U.S.-UK Defense Dialogue.
Pentagon Spokesman Eric Pahon provided the following readout:
Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Christopher Grady attended the U.S.-UK Defense Dialogue in London, United Kingdom, today with Permanent Under Secretary for Defence David Williams and Vice Chief of the Defence Staff General Dame Sharon Nesmith to discuss advancement in key areas of partnership across strategy, industrial base resilience, capabilities development, and current events, to include Syria.
The strategy-focused portion of the dialogue included a discussion of the recently-announced UK Strategic Defense Review, cooperation on strategic readiness, and Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine.
Discussions on U.S. and UK industrial base resilience included a review of the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) Implementation Plan, the EU-led European Defense Industrial Program, and defense innovation and rapid acquisition programs- to include Replicator.
Deputy Secretary Hicks emphasized that collective security is made stronger when we promote the free flow of ideas, materiel, and systems across the Atlantic. She also noted that engaging international partners and Allies is critical to enabling interoperability and promoting international and government-to-government industrial cooperation.
The Deputy Secretary and Permanent Secretary also discussed the Global Combat Air Programme and reducing barriers to collaboration- to include reducing barriers to information sharing necessary to the success of the AUKUS trilateral partnership.
Deputy Secretary Hicks noted that initiatives like AUKUS demonstrate an ability to effectively collaborate, address shared objectives, and preserve rules-based international norms.
She also highlighted that combined efforts toward reducing barriers to information sharing will ultimately drive increased interoperability and help to operationalize integrated deterrence.
Deputy Secretary Hicks thanked Permanent Secretary Williams for his cooperation and effort over the last four years, which has helped to deepen the enduring special defense relationship between the U.S. and the UK.
The twice-yearly U.S.-UK Defense Dialogue was established to focus high-level attention on strategic and acquisition issues, as well as technical innovation. The last U.S.-UK defense dialogue was held at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., on June 5, 2024. (Source: U.S. DoD)
05 Dec 24. German arms industry plan seeks fresh boost for a sector once shunned. The German government has vowed to boost vital sectors of the country’s defense industry while deepening cooperation with European allies, officials announced on Wednesday.
In a new policy document, the outgoing administration of Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that the Russian attack of Ukraine had necessitated an update to Germany’s defense-related industrial policy. The most recent version was from 2020, two years before Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of its western neighbor.
“It is crucial for Germany’s defense capability that we have innovative and efficient defense companies in our country,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. “This is the only way we can develop state-of-the-art weapons systems — also together with our allies — and, above all, produce them in sufficient quantities,” he added.
The paper with the catchy title of “Nationale Sicherheits- und Verteidigungsindustriestrategie”— national security- and defense industry strategy – outlines key capabilities that Germany seeks to maintain within its national borders, like shipbuilding and artificial intelligence, while delegating others, including aviation and small arms, to the European or international levels.
It also proposes a stronger role for multinational procurement efforts and the joint development of advanced weapon systems.
While German government ministries have singled out key industries in the past, the new paper names specific areas considered key national competencies that must be maintained domestically. Aside from shipbuilding, they include armored vehicles, artificial intelligence, communications, sensors, crucial IT services, and electronic warfare. Maintaining these is essential for the “maintenance and strengthening of the strategic sovereignty and capacity to act of the Federal Republic,” the report states.
The German economy has been struggling through a prolonged period of stagnation, resulting in fears over whether Germany will be able to maintain its status as an industrial powerhouse. The strategy paper seeks to “open a new chapter in the relations between the state and industry, in the spirit of the Zeitenwende,” said the defense minister, referencing Scholz’s speech shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in which he called the event a “turning point” in German and European history.
One of the objectives of the new strategy, which comes with a wish list of policy proposals, is to give arms companies more peace of mind when it comes to long-term contracts and opportunities for investment by government funds. It further identifies what the defense and economic ministries see as burdensome red tape that should be cut, and promises efforts to create more robust supply chains.
Specifically, the government calls for more funding for research and development, quicker budgetary processes, and purpose-fit funding and support for defense startups. Officials are also evaluating whether the military and other security services should be allowed to place longer-term, advance orders up to ten years to make industry planning more predictable. The paper further said the government was investigating the possibility of “capacity retention premiums” to allow for the quick upscaling of production in times of crisis.
The defense industry paper was presented by the ministers for defense and for the economy of the Scholz government. After the governing coalition broke apart last month, early elections were announced for February. Scholz’s left-of-center administration, which has been in charge since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, presided over a 180-degree turn in German defense policy, significantly increasing defense spending and becoming more assertive on the international stage. (Source: glstrade.com/Defense News)
09 Dec 24. Portugal calls for joint EU funding for defence spending. The European Union needs common instruments to fund defence spending amid a protracted war in Ukraine and calls from Washington for NATO members to increase such expenditure, Portugal’s finance minister said on Monday.
“All together we must find solutions, just as we did in the financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis, during the pandemic, with inflation”, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento told reporters. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has challenged NATO members to boost defence spending to 3% of economic output compared to their present target of 2% of GDP, which is yet to be met by some alliance members, including Portugal. The alliance estimates only 23 of its 32 members will meet the 2% target this year.
Portugal, which spent 1.5% on defence last year, expects to reach that threshold only by 2029. (Source: Reuters)
09 Dec 24. EU must find billions for arms within a year, defence chief says.
- Summary
- Andrius Kubilius calls for European ‘big bang’ in arms-buying
- He says EU must prepare for possible Russian attack
- Kubilius urges ‘front-loading’ of defence spending
- Lithuanian ex-PM is EU’s first defence commissioner
Europe needs to find ways within the next year to fund hundreds of billions of euros in extra military spending to defend against any attack from Russia by the end of the decade, the European Union’s new defence commissioner has said.
Andrius Kubilius, a former prime minister of Lithuania who has just become the European Commission’s first defence chief, told Reuters in an interview that Europe needed a “big bang” of extra funding and weapons buying.
“We need to go big with our procurement,” Kubilius said. “On the other side, we need to have big-bang finances.”
Kubilius’s comments reflect a view among many European leaders that the continent urgently needs to bolster its defences, driven by fears that an EU country could be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s next target after Ukraine.
The imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House and the United States’ increasing focus on China have also raised concerns in Europe that Washington will be less willing or able to help protect it in years to come.
There is broad agreement that Europe should spend more on defence, but EU countries have yet to agree on where to find the money.
Kubilius said a solution needed to be found in the next year, citing intelligence estimates – such as one by Germany’s spy chief – that Russia could be ready to attack a NATO country by the end of the decade at the latest.
“Everything needs to be done before or around 2030,” he said. “We cannot … imagine that we can ask President Putin to delay his plans until we shall be ready.”
Putin has said he has no intention of attacking other European countries. But such declarations do not convince European leaders, especially as Moscow gave similar assurances about Ukraine before invading in 2022.
Kubilius said Europe needs more of everything from tanks and artillery to airlift and refuelling capabilities.
FRONT-LOADING AMONG EU DEFENCE FINANCING IDEAS
The European Commission estimates additional defence investments of around 500bn euros ($530bn) are needed over the next decade.
Some leaders have suggested issuing EU defence bonds, which could be repaid from the EU budget. But fiscally frugal countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are opposed.
Kubilius floated the idea of borrowing against future national defence expenditure. “We need to have some kind of front-loading facility, which will be repaid then from national defence spending,” he said.
He said options such as using the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – the euro zone’s bailout fund – or repurposing money from the bloc’s coronavirus recovery fund and regional development pot could also be on the table.
Another idea under early discussion is to create a fund that a group of willing EU countries along with Norway and Britain would set up with paid-in as well as callable capital, according to officials and diplomats.
It would be modelled on the ESM and borrow money for joint defence projects on the market against its capital.
Such a Special Purpose Vehicle would allow governments to finance costly defence projects without increasing their public debt.
Kubilius noted that the EU had managed to borrow hundreds of bns of euros fast in the COVID-19 crisis and said it should show the same urgency now that it faced a “security pandemic”.
Kubilius is tasked with reducing fragmentation in the European defence market, where national governments often procure their own bespoke systems from national suppliers.
He said he would prioritise helping EU countries meet NATO capability targets as quickly as possible, aggregating demand with major joint contracts and pursuing big collaborative projects such as a European air defence shield.
“The biggest challenge will be to convince member states to take an approach to defence in a different way,” he said. ($1 = 0.9463 euros) (Source: Reuters)
09 Dec 24. Romania: Domestic unrest risks will remain low-to-moderate despite annulled presidential election. On 7 December, the authorities raided three houses in Brașov (Brașov county) as part of an investigation into alleged illegal financing of the presidential campaign, money laundering and fraud. Among those being investigated is Bogdan Peșchir, a businessman who donated approximately EUR 1 m (USD 1.2 bn) to promote the nationalist pro-Russia presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, who unexpectedly won the first round of the election on 24 November. On 6 December, the Constitutional Court cancelled the second round of the election due to take place on 8 December, after declassified intelligence documents indicated that a state-sponsored actor (likely Russia) co-ordinated an influence operation in favour of Georgescu (see Sibylline Alert – 6 December 2024). On 7 December, the police also arrested several armed individuals in Ilfov county who were allegedly traveling to the capital Bucharest to disrupt public order. We assess that domestic unrest risks will remain low-to-moderate in the coming days. Government stability will likely remain broadly unaffected in the immediate term, while a pro-EU coalition will likely form in the coming weeks; it will likely schedule a new presidential election for Q1 2025. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Dec 24. Romania: Spike in cyber attacks elevates security, disinformation risks to election entities. On 7 December, international news outlets reported that Romania’s election systems suffered around 85,000 cyber attack attempts before and after the first round of its presidential election on 24 November. Unnamed threat actors leaked credentials for election-related websites on Russian cyber criminal forums, facilitating a spike in cyber attacks against Romanian election infrastructure; this lasted until 25 November. Some of the attacks reportedly altered and/or blocked access to election information in an attempt to manipulate the outcome. Influencers on the social media platform TikTok were also hired to distribute content promoting the pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu. We assess that the majority of the attacks were likely carried out by Russian state-sponsored groups given past attack patterns and the scale and resources of this campaign. Interference efforts contributed to the annulment of the results of the first round of the election and preparations for another round of voting are ongoing; this underscores elevated security, mis- and disinformation risks to election entities. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Dec 24. Hicks Discusses Future Character of Warfare in London Keynote Address. The United States’ capacity for innovation and its strong ties with like-minded partners will continue to serve as key advantages as warfare evolves, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said yesterday.
In her keynote address on the “Future Character of War” at the Royal United Services Institute in London, Hicks discussed key insights from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine which she said offers “a window into how future wars will be waged.”
The picture that has emerged is a future of warfare defined by the new capabilities and concepts enabled by commercial technology from satellites to drones.
“Decades after talk of ‘network-centric warfare’ first appeared, we’re watching what happens when it’s applied at scale,” Hicks said. “And we’re seeing how dual-use technologies and talent can help deliver it.”
The widespread connectivity and use of electronic warfare enabled by increasingly ubiquitous technology have created new opportunities and challenges impacting warfighters’ ability to maneuver, disperse, sense and conceal on the battlefield, she stated.
“That’s driving innovation in operational concepts, capabilities and even force design,” Hicks said. “It’s also a key factor in our iterative development, deployment and use of Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control, or CJADC2, which draws upon America’s current global lead in software and responsible AI to give us and our allies and partners a clear decision advantage.”
The war in Ukraine has also accelerated the use of low-cost autonomous capabilities alongside traditional forces to increase the scale and accuracy of surveillance and attacks, Hicks said, adding that the Defense Department embraced this trend through its Replicator initiative.
The initiative, which Hicks announced last year, is focused on fielding thousands of “attritable,” capabilities — platforms that are unmanned and built affordably, allowing commanders to tolerate a higher degree of risk in employing them — across multiple domains by August 2025.
Hicks said today that Replicator is “a pathfinder” that will “speed the scaling of responsible autonomy more broadly” while meeting operational goals.
“And we’ll continue to adapt as our competitors and adversaries do the same,” she added. “That’s partly why Replicator’s second iteration will scale systems to counter the threat of small airborne drones, in line with our recently released Strategy for Countering Unmanned Systems.”
Hicks said future wars will require militaries to combine legacy systems with these “attritable” capabilities deployed at large scale.
But as the war in Ukraine has shown, success in future wars will not be determined by technology alone.
Hicks noted the “asymmetric advantage” alliances and partnerships will continue to play going forward.
“We share values. We train together deeply. We provide each other access, bases and overflight,” she said. “Our capabilities are seamlessly interoperable and increasingly interchangeable. Our supply chains strengthen one another.”
She contrasted the United States’ longstanding alliances with like-minded nations to Russia’s “bedfellows of last resort” it has pieced together throughout its war in Ukraine.
“As individual democracies and as democratic allies, we have what it takes to outlast and prevail over any who would see our democracies die,” Hicks said, adding that the U.S. and its allies’ ties span far beyond their militaries.
“Instead, our most enduring advantages come from fundamentals that no military in a democracy can shape or own alone, because they are the lifeblood of open societies that we defend: Our economies, our cultures, our ideas borne of free minds, free markets and free people,” she said. “Those are our greatest advantages, and a source of tremendous comparative advantage. As long as they last, so shall we.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
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