NEWS IN BRIEF – UNITED KINGDOM AND EUROPE

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13 Jul 24.  German army wants to order 100 Boxer vehicles from KNDS, Spiegel says. Germany’s armed forces are in talks to order about 100 Boxer armoured vehicles from German-French defence contractor KNDS for use by Ukraine, news magazine Spiegel reported on Friday without specifying its sources.

A first tranche of 80 vehicles will likely cost more than 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion), to be financed from the defence military’s 100-billion-euro special fund created after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Spiegel added.

A KNDS spokesperson said there was no contract at this time and declined to comment further.

The possible order for 100 Boxers will probably include 80 wheeled self-propelled RCH155 howitzers, the report said, adding that the German parliament would likely vote on the deal during the fourth quarter of this year.

Asked for comment, the German defence ministry said it had submitted an invitation to tender with KNDS for the Boxer and RCH155 models, but declined to elaborate on a possible deal.

The eight-wheel Boxer vehicles are more nimble than tracked tanks.

The talks come after a recent order by Germany for 105 KNDS-manufactured Leopard 2 A8 tanks for 2.9 billion euros, which was reported by Reuters last month and confirmed, opens new tab by the defence ministry on Thursday.

The defence ministry’s transaction with KNDS has wider implications because it is part of a possible framework order for over 300 Boxers that Britain and other NATO member states could draw on at a later stage, Spiegel added. (Source: Reuters)

 

13 Jul 24.  Russia can counter US missile deployments in Europe, Kremlin says. European countries would be putting themselves at risk if they accept deployments of long-range U.S. missiles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a video published on Saturday.

Asked by Russian state TV reporter Pavel Zarubin about the possibility of the United States deploying hypersonic missiles to Europe, Peskov said: “We have enough potential to deter these missiles. But the capitals of these (European) states are potential victims.”

Peskov noted that throughout the Cold War, American missiles based in Europe were aimed at Russia, with Russian missiles aimed at Europe in return, making the continent’s countries the chief victim of any potential conflict.

He said: “Europe is now coming apart at the seams. This is not the best time for Europe. Therefore, in one way or another, history will repeat itself” (Source: Reuters)

 

13 Jul 24. Poland to spend 5% of GDP on defence in 2025, says foreign minister. Poland will spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence in 2025, the foreign minister told Bloomberg Television in an interview broadcast on Friday evening.

Warsaw has already ramped up defence spending to more than 4% of its economic output this year in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Poland spends 4 (percent of GDP on defence) and we are going to spend 5 next year,” Radoslaw Sikorski said. “We are number one in NATO including the United States, in proportion obviously, because we are no longer in eternal post-Cold War peace.”

Deputy defence minister Cezary Tomczyk told private broadcaster TVN24 on Thursday that Poland would increase its defence budget by about 10% in 2025 to a record high.

Army chief of staff General Wieslaw Kukula told a press conference on Wednesday that Poland needed to prepare its soldiers for all-out conflict. (Source: Google/Reuters)

 

12 Jul 24. U.S. Announces Latest Security Package for Ukraine. As the NATO summit in Washington concluded yesterday, the U.S. announced its latest security package for Ukraine.

“The announced yesterday the 61st presidential drawdown authority package, which has an estimated value of $225m,” said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh during a briefing today. “This package will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs and includes one Patriot battery, munitions for rocket systems, and artillery and antitank weapons.”

Also among the materials in the latest security assistance package are 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds; Javelin and AT-4 antiarmor systems; and small-arms ammunition.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, the United States has committed more than $53.7bn in security assistance through both presidential drawdown authority and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

Today, Singh said, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with his counterpart, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov.

“During the call, the secretary emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine,” Singh said, adding that the last time the two spoke was in late June.

During this week’s summit celebrating NATO’s 75th anniversary, member states committed to continued support for Ukraine. Included in that support is an agreement to launch NATO’s security assistance and training for Ukraine out of a command based in Germany and a commitment to a minimum baseline funding of 40 billion euros, or just over $43 billion, within the next year.

NATO nations have also announced their own independent efforts to assist Ukraine, including pledges of air defense systems.

Humanitarian Aid to Gaza

In May, the department attached a floating, mobile pier — part of its Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore, or JLOTS, capability — to the shore of Gaza to facilitate the transfer of humanitarian aid.

“To date, more than 8,000 metric tons or nearly 20 million pounds of humanitarian aid have been delivered from the pier to the marshaling area where it can be collected by humanitarian organizations for onward delivery and distribution,” Singh said.

Due to conditions in the Mediterranean Sea, the floating pier has been taken offline several times since it was first put in place. Currently, it is at the Port of Ashdod, Israel, about 20 miles to the north of Gaza. Singh said a “re-anchoring date” for the pier has not yet been set.

Department officials have said the pier is not a permanent solution for getting humanitarian aid into Gaza. Singh said it’s expected that the pier will soon cease operations, and more details regarding that will be announced soon.

“We’re very proud of our service members and all those supporting this effort … who have enabled vital humanitarian assistance to get into … those in Gaza who need it most,” she said. “As hundreds of thousands of people continue to face emergency levels of food insecurity across Gaza, the United States will continue to take all possible action to ensure increased aid flows are sustained at the scale needed to meet the needs on the ground.”

The humanitarian aid delivered into Gaza over the JLOTS pier began its journey in nearby Cyprus. While neither the U.S. nor the department is directly involved in operations there, Singh did say that the flow of aid spurred by the humanitarian mission in Gaza has resulted in enhanced capabilities at port facilities in Cyprus.

“In addition to enabling the delivery of lifesaving aid, implementation of JLOTS has … enabled the development of Cyprus as a port for inspections and deliveries directly into Gaza,” she said. “Aid can now be inspected in Cyprus and delivered directly into Gaza through Israel’s Ashdod Port and crossings in the north.”

Singh said deployment of the pier has also helped secure Israeli commitment to opening additional crossings into northern Gaza.

“Since the opening of these crossings, we’ve seen more trucks moving from Jordan directly into northern Gaza to help alleviate the dire humanitarian conditions,” she said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

11 Jul 24. Statement of the NATO-Ukraine Council issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in Washington, D.C. 11th July 2024.

1. We, the Heads of State and Government of the NATO-Ukraine Council, met today during this historic NATO Summit. For more than two years of Russia’s brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and ten years since Russia’s illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea and initial military intervention in the Donbas, the people of Ukraine have been heroically defending their nation, their land, and our shared values. We solemnly pay tribute to the lives lost, and we deplore the human suffering and destruction caused by Russia’s illegal, unjustifiable, and unprovoked war of aggression. Russia has failed in its efforts to undermine Ukraine’s statehood and break the resolve of the Ukrainian people. The men and women of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the people of Ukraine continue to inspire the world with their bravery and determination. Ukraine stands strong as a sovereign, independent, and democratic nation.
2. Russia bears full responsibility for this war, a blatant violation of international law including the UN Charter, for which it must be held fully accountable. We condemn all those who are facilitating Russia’s war and amplifying Russia’s disinformation campaigns. Russia’s war against Ukraine has shattered peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area and has had a profound impact on the safety, security, and welfare of bns of people around the world. Russia has not shown any genuine openness to a just and lasting peace. Allies welcome and support President Zelenskyy’s continuous commitment to advance a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace through his Peace Formula and the Peace Summit process, including the important first Summit in Switzerland.
3. Russia is responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians and has caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.  We condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s horrific attacks on the Ukrainian people, including on hospitals, on 8 July.  We welcome the announced commitments to provide Ukraine with additional air defence systems and other military capabilities, as Allies increase their support to meet Ukraine’s needs and help protect its people, cities, and infrastructure from Russia’s appalling attacks. NATO will support and advise on the design and implementation of an integrated air and missile defence architecture for Ukraine, to enable the most efficient use of Ukraine’s air and missile defence capabilities and support its transition to full interoperability with NATO.
4. A strong, independent, and democratic Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders is vital for the stability and security of the Euro-Atlantic area. Ukraine’s fight for its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity directly contributes to Euro-Atlantic security. Allies and partners continue to step up vital political, military, financial, economic, and humanitarian assistance as Ukraine exercises its inherent right to self-defence as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter. Allies also continue to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience by helping sustain its energy infrastructure, providing critical energy supplies, and enabling the transit of goods and grain. Allies remain as resolute as ever in supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes for Ukraine to prevail.
5. We welcome the launch of the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), which will coordinate the provision of military training and equipment for Ukraine by Allies and partners and will provide logistical support. It will ensure enhanced, predictable, and coherent security assistance to Ukraine for the long term, bolstering the support Allies and partners provide to Ukraine. NSATU, which will operate in Allied states, will strengthen our ongoing cooperation to transform Ukraine’s defence and security forces, so that Ukraine is more capable of defending itself now and deterring any further Russian aggression in the future.
6. Ukraine requires long-term support. Allies are determined to support Ukraine in building a force capable of defeating Russian aggression. We welcome Allies’ pledge of long-term security assistance for the provision of military equipment, assistance, and training for Ukraine. We also welcome that, to that end, Allies intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 bn within the next year, and to provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail.
7. As we continue to intensify our cooperation and strengthen Ukraine’s political integration with NATO, the Alliance is reinforcing the NATO Representation to Ukraine (NRU), and the Secretary General has decided to appoint a NATO Senior Representative to head the NRU and to act as a focal point for NATO’s engagement with Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv.
8. We have made significant progress in our ongoing cooperation, including through the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine, to strengthen and rebuild the Ukrainian security and defence sector, support Ukraine’s deterrence and defence in the long term, and transition Ukraine to full interoperability with NATO. To that end:

• We have jointly developed initial NATO Interoperability Requirements, making full use of NATO-related defence planning processes and tools, to inform and support Ukraine’s security and defence sector reforms and enable the long-term interoperability of our forces.
• We are working together to bring Ukraine’s defence procurement in line with Euro-Atlantic best practices through the Strategic Defence Procurement Review.
• We will work together to identify and apply lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine, including on resilience, in the newly established Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Centre (JATEC) in Poland. As a joint NATO-Ukraine structure, JATEC will serve as an important pillar of practical cooperation and increase Ukraine’s interoperability with NATO.
• We are launching new joint activities to support Ukraine’s self-defence through the first NATO-Ukraine Innovation Cooperation Roadmap.
• NATO will continue to support Ukraine’s self-defence with urgently needed non-lethal equipment and supplies through the CAP, and we welcome partner contributions.

9. With these long-term commitments, we are building on the work we have done together in the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) to advance Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, including Ukraine’s strategic goal of NATO membership. Since establishing the NUC at the Vilnius Summit, we have been working and taking decisions together, as equals, on a broad range of issues, including interoperability, energy security and infrastructure, innovation, cyber defence, defence industry, countering disinformation, and resilience. The NUC has also proven to be an effective crisis consultation mechanism.
10. Allies fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements and decide its own future, free from outside interference.  Ukraine’s future is in NATO.  Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance.  Allies welcome the concrete progress Ukraine has made since the Vilnius Summit on its required democratic, economic, and security reforms.  As Ukraine continues this vital work, Allies will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.  Allies reaffirm that they will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.  The Summit decisions by NATO and the NATO-Ukraine Council, combined with Allies’ ongoing work, constitute a bridge to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.  Allies will continue to support Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms, which NATO Foreign Ministers will continue to assess through the adapted Annual National Programme.
11. We welcome the bilateral long-term security commitments Allies and partners have agreed with Ukraine based on the G7 Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine launched in Vilnius. They are mutually reinforcing and are a testament to the shared and unwavering commitment to a free, independent, democratic, and sovereign Ukraine, within its internationally recognised borders, capable of defending itself and deterring future aggression. These commitments, together with the decisions taken at this Summit, provide for sustained, enduring support to Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and support Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. (Source: NATO)

 

11 Jul 24. Stoltenberg: Ukraine Can Count on NATO For Long Haul.

Military and political leaders from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization today capped off a three-day summit in Washington with a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. During the council meeting, participants renewed the alliance’s commitment to Ukraine’s self-defense and discussed in greater detail what that commitment would look like going forward.

“At this summit, we are turning a corner and putting in place the foundations for Ukraine to prevail,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said following the conclusion of the council meeting.

Part of that effort, Stoltenberg said, involves an agreement to launch NATO security assistance and training for Ukraine out of a command based in Germany, with logistic hubs located in the eastern part of the alliance. It’s expected around 700 personnel will be involved in that effort.

NATO allies also agreed to coordinate the training of Ukrainian forces at facilities in allied countries, Stoltenberg said, and will also manage the transfer and repair of equipment. Also agreed to by NATO allies is a minimum baseline funding of 40bn Euro within the next year — just over $43bn.

“We will review this level at forthcoming summits to ensure that our support continues to meet Ukraine’s needs,” Stoltenberg said.

Also this week at the NATO summit, Stoltenberg said, NATO allies have announced their own independent efforts to assist Ukraine, including pledges of air defense systems.

“More allies have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine, bringing the total to more than 20,” he said.

As part of the Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine, NATO has advanced efforts to help Ukraine become more interoperable with NATO, and also help build Ukraine’s defense industry, Stoltenberg said.

The NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Centre in Poland, agreed to by allies, will benefit Ukraine by identifying and applying lessons learned from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“All of this support will make Ukraine stronger and more capable,” Stoltenberg said. “This serves as a bridge to NATO. Allies have agreed that as Ukraine continues necessary reforms, we will support them on their irreversible path to membership. Today, we send a strong message of unity and resolve to Moscow that violence and intimidation do not pay, and that Ukraine can count on NATO now and for the long haul.”

In advance of the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the support provided by NATO would go a long way toward helping Ukraine defend itself.

“All this will help curb Putin’s appetite for aggression,” he said.

Regarding NATO membership, Zelenskyy pledged to do what was necessary to become a partner.

“We are doing, and will continue to do, everything to ensure that the day comes when Ukraine is invited and becomes a NATO member,” he said. “I am confident we will achieve this.”  (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

11 Jul 24. Biden: U.S. Continues to Lead Global Partnership, Stands Firm With NATO Allies. A strong NATO is crucial to U.S. and global security, President Joe Biden said today as he concluded the three-day summit marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance in Washington.

The 32-member bloc stands as the “most important military defense alliance” in the history of the world, the president said as he emphasized the United States’ commitment to its global partners amid renewed challenges in Europe and beyond.

“For those who thought NATO’s time had passed, they got a rude awakening when Putin invaded Ukraine,” Biden said in a news conference capping the summit. “Some of the oldest, deepest fears in Europe roared backed to life because once again a murderous madman was on the march.

“But this time, no one cowered in appeasement, especially the United States,” he said.

Global partners have rallied in opposition to Russia’s war and continue to serve as a testament to the power of alliances, Biden said as he underscored the imperative for the United States’ continued leadership.

“We’re the United States of America,” he said. “We are the indispensable nation. Our leadership matters. Our partnerships matter. This moment matters. We must rise to meet it.”

The president’s remarks echo the resolve among NATO leaders at this week’s summit where member states advanced a range of initiatives to further strengthen the alliance and take steps to advance the support of Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.

Outcomes from this year’s summit include a pledge from all 32 allies to increase defense industrial production and to coordinate with fellow NATO countries on national plans to strengthen industrial capacity.

The allies also agreed to advance NATO’s modernized command structure and put a new generation of defense plans into practice.

The plans, which were agreed to at last year’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, are the first comprehensive defense blueprint developed by the alliance since the end of the Cold War.

They include an updated force structure to strengthen NATO’s ability to respond to any scenario and across all domains.

The leaders also announced significant steps to further support Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, as well as Ukraine’s long-term bridge to membership in the alliance.

On Tuesday, Biden announced that the U.S., Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Romania will provide Ukraine with five additional strategic air defense systems to help protect Ukrainian civilians, cities and soldiers.

Today, Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the summit.

The two leaders discussed the situation on Ukraine’s front lines and the ongoing efforts of the United States to support Ukraine’s defenders, according to a White House summary of the meeting.

Following their meeting, Biden announced additional security assistance valued at up to $225m to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs.

Biden also announced on Thursday the endorsement of the Ukraine Compact by more than 20 countries, together with the European Council and European Union, by which signatories affirm their commitment to Ukraine’s long-term defense and security.

“What happens to Ukraine matters,” Biden said in announcing the compact on Thursday. “It matters to all of Europe. It matters to NATO. Quite frankly, matters to the whole world.

“We’re united against Putin’s senseless brutal war,” he said. “We are united behind Ukraine as it fights to defend its freedom and its future.”

Earlier during the summit, NATO leaders also announced the standup of the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, or NSATU, initiative which will coordinate equipment, training and force development for Ukraine as it advances on its path to full interoperability with NATO.

The effort will be based in Germany and carried out in countries throughout the alliance.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the steps further pave Ukraine’s path to joining to the alliance.

“The work we are doing together now will ensure that when the time is right, Ukraine can join without delay,” Stoltenberg said in a news conference on Wednesday. “It is not a question of if, but when.”

The allies have also pledged to expand partnerships with key allies in the Indo-Pacific. This year’s summit includes high-level meetings with key partners in the region, including Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

On Thursday, Biden met with his regional counterparts on the margins of the summit where he welcomed the contribution of NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners to global security including their support for Ukraine.

The leaders also discussed their shared concern over China’s support of Russia’s defense industrial base, according to a White House summary of the meetings.

During Biden’s meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, the two leaders also discussed advancements on U.S.-South Korean security cooperation and extended deterrence outlined under the April 2023 Washington Declaration to mark the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-ROK alliance and recommit to develop an ever-stronger mutual defense relationship.

As part of the Washington Declaration, the two countries established a Nuclear Consultative Group, or NCG, to strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning and manage the threats posed by North Korea.

The two countries’ NCG co-chairs — U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Vipin Narang and South Korean Deputy Minister of National Defense Policy Dr. Cho Chang Lae — met at the Pentagon on Thursday to sign joint guidelines outlining principles and procedures for maintaining an effective nuclear deterrence policy and posture.

Biden and Yoon praised the NCG’s accomplishments during their meeting, according to a White House summary The two leaders also reiterated the need to continue making progress together on nuclear consultation and strategic planning. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

11 Jul 24. Today, the NATO summit in Washington, DC, will conclude. Defense Priorities Policy Director Benjamin H. Friedman issued the following statement in response:

“NATO’s summit continued several bad habits. The first is to increasingly lose focus on NATO’s core task, which is to balance against Russian power, in favor of vague talk about global missions. The summit communique goes on about various problems in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, as if the alliance doesn’t have its hands full with Russia and can repair internal trouble in distant places. It complains that China ‘continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security,’ a cloudy assertion that falsely implies China is a military threat to Europe that NATO should contain.

“Second, the summit, while celebrating the arrival of new members, ignores the need to defend them. In particular, this summit marks another missed opportunity to determine how to defend Finland, which has an 800-plus mile border with Russia and fewer than 25,000 active troops in its military. That is a serious defense liability and a massive bill that could come due, especially once the war in Ukraine ends.

“Third, the summit offers Ukraine false hope of membership that is worse than useless. The communique bills the summit as a ‘bridge’ to Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership, and also declares that Ukraine is on an ‘irreversible path’ to entry. But these metaphors have no substance. They do not change the fact that NATO states, especially the United States, which undergirds the alliance with nuclear weapons, have shown they will not fight for Ukraine and risk destruction. That refusal to fight reflects an immutable lack of interests worthy of such risks. Formal security guarantees, whether through NATO or not, can’t change that and thus may never be credible.

“NATO is in fact providing Ukraine a bridge to nowhere, or worse. False promises of eventual membership and statements of unyielding commitment to its cause actually imperil Ukraine. Promising future NATO membership preserves a cause of the war and incentivizes Russia to continue fighting to prevent that point from arriving. Further, pretending NATO will defend Ukraine at some point in the future or that Kyiv can win back all its territory encourages Ukraine to continue a war strategy that is not working, one that seeks to regain all lost territory rather than going on defense and accommodating the inevitably unjust peace where Russia withdraws from little of Ukraine’s land, or less.” (Source: )

 

10 Jul 24. Nato Summit airs Italian proposal to save defence spending from EU limits. The Nato Summit Defence Industry Forum heard an Italian proposal to exclude defence spending from the EU Growth and Stability Pact. At the Nato Summit Defence Industry Forum on 9 July, Major General Enrico Credendino of the Italian Navy was questioned about a proposal from the Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto to exclude defence expenditure from the constraint of the Growth and Stability Pact within the EU.

Allowing defence expenditures outside the SGP constraints would enable countries to invest more robustly in their military capabilities, ensuring better preparedness against modern threats. Countries like Italy, which face significant fiscal pressures, would benefit from this flexibility, allowing them to meet defence needs without compromising on economic stability.

The war in Ukraine has forced a revision of Italy’s defence posture in the face of a likely long-term confrontation with Russia. GlobalData’s ‘Italy Defense Market 2023-2028’ report states that Italy is continuing to invest in new platforms across all domains and to support modification of its older system, including acquiring augmented systems for its mechanised brigades, constructing several new naval vessels, inducting the F-35 fighter jet, and partaking in the next-generation Tempest programme.

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), established in 1997, is a set of fiscal rules designed to ensure that EU countries maintain sound public finances by keeping budget deficits below 3% of GDP and public debt below 60% of GDP. These rules are enforced by the European Commission and the Council of the EU, which monitor member states’ compliance and can implement measures to tackle persistent breaches.

As Credendino points out, the COVID-19 pandemic led to the activation of a general escape clause in March 2020, suspending these rules to allow member states to address the economic fallout without the constraints of the SGP. He argued that excluding defence spending from the SGP would give EU countries the financial flexibility needed to enhance their defence capabilities without breaching fiscal limits.

Critics may argue that excluding defence spending could lead to fiscal indiscipline, risking higher debt levels and economic instability in the long term, and that adjusting the SGP rules would require extensive negotiations among EU member states, many of whom have differing views on fiscal policy and defence priorities. Loosening fiscal constraints could reduce the EU’s ability to enforce sound financial practices among member states, potentially leading to misuse of funds.

The German Finance Minister Christian Linger told the German Press Agency in June 2023 that he had yet to give support for making exemptions for defence spending. “Capital markets do not distinguish between the motives for making debt,” said Lindner. “For capital markets, debt is debt, and too high debt leads to instability. It is potentially fuelling inflation and reduces the sustainability of our public finances.” (Source: army-technology.com)

 

10 Jul 24. NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge. Transatlantic defence industrial cooperation is a critical part of NATO’s deterrence and defence. Our defence industry provides us with the equipment we need to fight, strengthens our technological edge, and plays an important role in increasing the readiness and interoperability of our forces.

We will leverage the Alliance’s role as convenor, standard setter, requirements setter and aggregator, and delivery enabler to expand defence industrial capacity.

The security of over one bn citizens depends on our investments in deterrence and defence. Sustained, increased defence spending and firm orders, combined with long-term capacity investment, will enable industry to support the Alliance’s response to the challenges of an increasingly unpredictable and hostile security environment. Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and Russia’s transition to a war economy demonstrate the strategic importance of our defence industry.

We will accelerate the growth of defence industrial capacity and production across the Alliance, in line with Articles 2 and 3 of the Washington Treaty, building on the ambitions of the Defence Production Action Plan agreed at the Vilnius Summit in 2023. Strengthening our defence industry makes us more capable, better able to deliver against the requirements of NATO’s defence plans in a timely manner, and underpins our immediate and enduring support to Ukraine.

Leveraging the Alliance as a key platform, we commit to doing more together as Allies to invest in a strong and capable defence industry. We pledge to:

• Strengthen defence industry across the Alliance: Foster an innovative, competitive, and sustainable defence industry, where reciprocal cooperation and openness are the norm. Strengthened defence industry across Europe and North America and enhanced defence industrial cooperation among Allies, remains essential for delivering the required capabilities. Continue to reduce and eliminate, as appropriate, obstacles to defence trade and investment among Allies. Provide a clear demand signal to industry through firm orders and contracts, increasing multiyear buys and sharing appropriate information on our key requirements. The well-established NATO defence planning process is the sole vehicle for agreeing, defining and apportioning NATO’s capability needs. We will seek to address restrictions to financing of defence industrial investments and promote the ethical nature of their contribution to peace and security.
• Take a more systemic approach to defence industrial development: Develop and share individual national plans and strategies among Allies. Each Ally will draft its own national plan, decide how to enhance industrial capability, capacity and responsiveness, revise the plans regularly, and report annually based on measurable outcomes. Sharing our plans will improve our coordination and coherence of effort, enabling Allies to discuss collective progress and challenges. Allies can choose to incorporate lessons learned and best practices in developing and implementing plans nationally, across the Alliance, or in other settings.
• Deliver critical capabilities urgently: Reaffirm our strong commitment and take action to deliver the most critical capabilities required in the short term, consistent with the defence planning process, to execute NATO’s defence plans. In doing so, Allies will also remain fully committed to supporting Ukraine with a renewed sense of urgency. Our initial focus will include battle decisive munitions and air and missile defence. Allies will report on progress through established processes.
• Increase large scale, multinational procurement: Drive more joint procurement including through multinational programmes, in accordance with national plans. Joint procurement is at the heart of bolstering interoperability and interchangeability and delivers better value for money. Seek to make greater use of existing, tried and tested frameworks, including those offered by the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA), and open national framework contracts for participation by other Allies, where feasible.
• Accelerate adoption of new technologies: Harness the considerable potential of our small- and medium-sized enterprises, and speed up our development and adoption of new technologies, in partnership with the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), Allied Command Transformation’s Innovation Hub, and the NATO Innovation Fund.
• Enhance cooperation with Ukraine: Support Ukraine and its defence industrial base by fostering and expanding defence cooperation between Allies and the Ukrainian defence industry to the fullest extent.
• Enhance cooperation with NATO partners: To bolster defence industry, continue to take mutual steps with the European Union to strengthen coherence and complementarity of respective efforts and relevant work. Seek to enhance our defence industrial cooperation through focused dialogue with engaged partners including, among others, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea.
• Reinforce our commitment to NATO standards and enhance interoperability and interchangeability: Accelerate the updating and development of standards within NATO, and implementation within nations, including through more systematic engagement with industry and a focus on new areas such as digital standards. Implementation of NATO standards is the prerequisite for interoperability, and for interchangeability of munitions. NATO Defence Ministers will review progress regularly, starting at their next meeting and  agree necessary measures to increase and strengthen the implementation of standards.
• Protect our defence-critical supply chains: Take action to foster the responsiveness, strength, resilience and security of supply chains to protect our industries and ensure that the Alliance develops military capabilities free from the hostile influence of potential adversaries. We will ensure the protection of our strategic supply chains from disruption. (Source: NATO)

 

11 Jul 24. At NATO summit, allies move to counter Russia, bolster Ukraine.

• Summary
• US to deploy long-range missiles in Germany
• Communique cites at least 40bn euros in aid for Ukraine
• Communique strengthens past language on China
• Trump says NATO allies must pay more

The United States will start deploying longer range missiles in Germany in 2026, the two countries announced at a meeting of the NATO alliance on Tuesday, a major step aimed at countering what the allies say is a growing threat Russia poses to Europe.

The decision will send Germany the most potent U.S. weapons to be based on the European continent since the Cold War, in a clear warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A U.S.-German statement said the “episodic deployments” were in preparation for longer-term stationing in Europe of capabilities that would include SM-6, Tomahawk and developmental hypersonic weapons with greater range.

The move would have been banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by the U.S. and the Soviet Union in 1987 but that collapsed in 2019.

“We cannot discount the possibility of an attack against Allies’ sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the allies said in a communique released on Wednesday.

More aid was headed to Ukraine as the allies bolster Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

A communique said the allies intend to provide Ukraine with at least 40bn euros ($43.28bn) in military aid within the next year, but stopped short of the multi-year commitment NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had sought.

The document also strengthened past NATO language on China, calling it a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and saying Beijing continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security.

Stoltenberg told reporters it was the first time the 32 allies had jointly labeled China a decisive enabler of Russia’s war and called it an important message.

He said NATO was not an organization that imposes sanctions, but added: “At the end of the day, this will be for individual allies to make decisions, but I think the message we send from NATO from this summit is very clear.”

The communique called on China to cease material and political support for Russia’s war effort and expressed concern about China’s space capabilities, referenced rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, and urged Beijing to engage in strategic risk reduction talks.

NATO, ‘THE GREATEST ALLIANCE”

Biden hosted NATO partners and allies at a dinner at the White House on Wednesday to celebrate what he called “the greatest alliance the world has ever known.”

Biden said in a speech on Tuesday that NATO was “stronger than it’s ever been” and that Ukraine can and will stop Russian leader Putin “with our full, collective support.”

“We cannot allow the alliance to fall behind,” Biden said. “We can and will defend every inch of NATO territory and we’ll do it together.”

At the White House, Biden and new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had a back-and-forth exchange and shared laughs and congratulations over England’s 2-1 win over the Netherlands in the Euro 2024 soccer tournament.

Biden described the United Kingdom as the “knot” tying together the trans-Atlantic NATO alliance and said that the two countries must continue to cooperate.

He also met at the summit venue with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb of Finland to discuss strengthening their trilateral cooperation on economic issues and on defense industrial production.

Biden, 81, has faced questions about his fitness for office after fumbling a June 27 debate and hopes the NATO spotlight will help him stage a comeback of sorts, surrounded by allied leaders he has spent his three years in office cultivating.

However, November’s U.S. presidential election could presage a sharp change in Washington’s support for Ukraine and NATO. Republican candidate Donald Trump, 78, has questioned the amount of aid given to Ukraine to fight Russia’s invasion and U.S. support for allies generally.

TRUMP WEIGHS IN

On Wednesday, Trump told Fox News Radio he would not pull the U.S. out of NATO but reiterated that he wanted members to pay more. “I just want them to pay their bills. We’re protecting Europe. They take advantage of us very badly,” he said.

Trump had pressed congressional Republicans to stall military aid for Ukraine before later reversing course.

Uncertainty about U.S. leadership has unsettled NATO allies.

“If there’s one thing that I’m concerned about with the United States, it’s the polarization of the political climate – it is, I have to admit, very toxic,” Finland’s Stubb told reporters.

While Biden has been seeking to rally allies and domestic support, several high-ranking European officials met a top foreign policy adviser to Trump during the summit.

The communique says the alliance will continue to support Ukraine “on its irreversible path to full Euro-atlantic integration, including NATO membership”. That language had been a major point of contention among the allies. ($1 = 0.9243 euros) (Source: Reuters)

 

10 Jul 24. From Military Side, NATO Ready to Defend Every Inch of Alliance. While the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s main mission is to deter any adversary from attacking, if called on, the 32 nations are ready to defend every inch of alliance territory, said Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander, Europe, and commander of U.S. European Command.

Speaking at the NATO summit’s public forum at the Washington Convention Center this morning, the general highlighted how the alliance’s military side has put in place the strategic concept for deterrence and defense of the Euro-Atlantic area. These plans grew out of NATO’s summit last year, he said.

“In the last couple of years, what we’ve done is turn those into concrete plans — traditional, classical, operational plans — that describe how we’re going to defend specific areas of the alliance and what we’re going to use to do it and what the sequence of events is,” the general said. “This is a big, big shift.”

The alliance didn’t need these types of plans following the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991. “After the end of the Cold War, the alliance refocused on out-of-area operations and crisis management,” he said. “These tended to be smaller scale operations, done on a predictable basis that allowed for a cyclical, force-generation model.”

But Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in 2022 changed this calculus, and alliance leaders saw the need for a new NATO defense plan. The new plans guide leaders in resourcing defense capabilities, Cavoli said.

This has meant a sea change for the alliance. Cavoli said instead of resourcing a brigade or two on a cyclical basis, the alliance now has 300,000 service members at higher levels of readiness. “That’s because we’ve been able to amalgamate and incorporate national defense plans into the NATO defense plans, so they complement each other,” he said. “It has produced an ability to be forward postured.”

Spotlight: Support for Ukraine

Cavoli said when Russia stormed into Ukraine there were four NATO battle groups in Eastern Europe. There are now eight, and they’re just the leading edge of NATO’s defense. If needed, more troops, more air, and many other military capabilities would fall in on those forces.

“It’s a very effective method, we have the right number of troops for right now.”

Cavoli said the alliance has been exercising the reinforcing scenarios, and NATO has also done extensive readiness checks. “As we go forward, we’ve continued to do these large-scale exercises where we practice the subsequent reinforcement of specific areas.”

Earlier this year, NATO’s Exercise Steadfast Defender encompassed more than 90,000 service members, and the alliance’s military officials are working to shore up some weaknesses highlighted by the exercise.

“For the most part, in capital platforms, in large ground units, we’re pretty much where we need to be,” Cavoli said. “We have some gaps in specific places, especially in enablement and logistics, and those we’re working on through the NATO defense planning process right now.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

10 Jul 24. NATO declares US ballistic missile defense base in Poland mission ready. A new U.S. air defense base in northern Poland, designed to detect and intercept ballistic missile attacks as part of a broader NATO missile shield, is mission ready, the western military alliance announced on Wednesday.

Speaking on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington, the alliance’s chief Jens Stoltenberg said the readiness of the base was an important step for transatlantic security in the face of a growing threat posed by ballistic missiles.

“As a defensive alliance we cannot ignore that threat. Missile defense is an essential element for NATO’s core task of collective defense,” he added, noting ballistic missiles had been widely used in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The system, dubbed Aegis Ashore, is based at the northern Polish town of Redzikowo and capable of intercepting short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles, according to NATO.

The allied missile defense shield is meant to protect European citizens, territory and forces against ballistic missile attacks.

Other key elements of the shield include a second Aegis Ashore site in Romania, along with U.S. navy destroyers based in the Spanish port of Rota and an early-warning radar situated in the Turkish town of Kurecik.

NATO says Aegis Ashore is purely defensive. About 200 military personnel are stationed at the two interceptor sites in Poland and Romania, with the base in the Romanian town of Deveselu operational since 2016. (Source: Reuters)

 

10 Jul 24. NATO statement to include intent to bolster allies’ air defences, says Romanian president. The pending NATO summit statement in Washington will include an intention to bolster air defences along the eastern flank of the alliance, Romania’s president said on Wednesday.

Romania, a NATO member since 2004, shares a 650-km (400-mile) border with Ukraine and has had Russian drone fragments stray into its territory repeatedly as Moscow attacks Ukrainian ports just across the Danube River border.

“You will see in tomorrow’s statement … planned measures to bolster air defenses on the eastern flank,” President Klaus Iohannis told reporters. “This concerns us, there have been … situations in which drones fell on our national territory.”

Romania said in June it would donate a Patriot system to Ukraine, part of a delivery of five such systems and other strategic air defence units pledged by NATO states to Ukraine as it battles Russia’s 28-month-old invasion.

“Our condition is that when we donate large scale systems such as Patriot that we be adequately compensated,” he said.

“This is being negotiated these days with the American partner, with NATO. Our wish is to receive another Patriot system in exchange, not right away but at a future date. But I believe we will also manage to obtain systems which will be delivered faster connected to air defence.”

Romania signed its $4bn deal to get Patriots in 2017, the NATO and European Union state’s biggest procurement contract to date. The first shipment was delivered in 2020. Romania has received four systems so far, with only two operational. (Source: Reuters)

 

10 Jul 24. US to start deploying long-range weapons in Germany in 2026. The United States will start deploying long-range fire capabilities in Germany in 2026 in an effort to demonstrate its commitment to NATO and European defense, the United States and Germany said in a joint statement on Wednesday.

The United States’ “episodic deployments” are in preparation for longer-term stationing of such capabilities that will include SM-6, Tomahawk cruise missiles and developmental hypersonic weapons that have a longer range than current capabilities in Europe, the two countries said.

Both the Tomahawk and the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) are made by RTX’s (RTX.N) Raytheon division.

Ground-based missiles with a range exceeding 500 kilometres were banned until 2019 under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev and former U.S. President Ronald Reagan in 1987.

It marked the first time the two superpowers had agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals and eliminated a whole category of weapons.

Falling in line with the signatories, Germany, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic destroyed their missiles in the 1990s, to be followed later by Slovakia and Bulgaria.

The United States withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019 saying that Moscow was violating the accord, citing Russia’s development of the 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile, known in NATO as the SSC-8.

The Kremlin repeatedly denied the accusation and then imposed a moratorium on its own development of missiles previously banned by the INF treaty – ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 km to 5,500km. At the end of June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow should resume production of intermediate and shorter range nuclear-capable missiles after the United States brought similar missiles to Europe and Asia.

Putin said Russia had pledged not to deploy such missiles but that the United States had resumed their production, brought them to Denmark for exercises and also taken them to the Philippines. (Source: Reuters)

 

09 Jul 24. PM says step up in defence spending can safeguard the future of NATO. PM Keir Starmer has underlined the UK’s cast iron commitment to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence to respond to growing threats, ahead of a NATO summit.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has underlined the UK’s cast iron commitment to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence to respond to growing threats, ahead of a NATO summit where he will say a step up in defence spending can safeguard the future of the Alliance.

At the summit in Washington D.C., the PM will emphasise his determination to face down global threats to Britain and its western allies. He will praise NATO members’ efforts to increase defence spending and say that further increases in spending will help the alliance tackle the nature of today’s threats.

The Prime Minister has also confirmed today that he will launch the Government’s Strategic Defence Review next week, with detailed preparatory work already undertaken by Defence Secretary John Healey – who will oversee the review.

The review will determine the future defence posture of the UK, the capabilities needed and will set out a roadmap to achieving 2.5% of GDP on defence. He will confirm that the review will put a ‘NATO-first’ policy at the heart of Britain’s defence plans.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said:

“There is no more important duty for me as Prime Minister than keeping the people of our country safe.

“At a time when we face multiple threats at home and abroad, we must make sure we are ready to defend ourselves. That’s why I have immediately ordered a root-and-branch review that will secure Britain’s defences for the future.

“Working with our most important partners around the world, our Strategic Defence Review will make sure the UK is sending a clear message to those who seek to undermine peace and democracy – you will not succeed.”

Defence Secretary John Healey said:   ,“Britain’s commitment to NATO is unshakeable. We cannot have prosperity without security and we must never take our ability to live freely for granted.  The world is increasingly volatile with rapidly changing global threats. In the footsteps of Bevin, our government will help ensure we have a strong NATO in this increasingly insecure world.  Our government’s first duty is to keep the country safe. That’s why we will increase defence spending and launch a Strategic Defence Review to ensure we have the capabilities needed to protect the UK now and in the future. The Review will also set out defence reforms to secure faster procurement and better value for money.”

Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, said:   “NATO is part of Britain’s DNA. 75 years ago, Ernest Bevin helped to establish NATO. Today, as then, our commitment to NATO is completely unshakeable. We cannot have stability and prosperity without national security. That’s why NATO is the ultimate guarantor of our ability to live freely and build a more prosperous future, for the people of this country and our Allies. Ukraine’s security is our security, so our priority for Washington must be to show that NATO support for Ukraine remains iron-clad, and our support will be sustained. Putin thinks he can outwait the West, but he is mistaken.”

Building on our existing global defence partnerships such as AUKUS and GCAP, the Prime Minister is determined to make sure the UK is one of the leading defence players on the world stage, and alongside our like-minded partners prove that progressive, peaceful democracies will ultimately triumph over tyranny.

The Strategic Defence Review will consider the nature of the threats we face – including Putin’s ongoing brutal invasion of Ukraine, continued instability in the Middle East and the rise of authoritarian countries – and the capabilities we need to tackle them.

That includes the shape of our Armed Forces and their readiness to fight, enhancing our defence partnerships, developing a new defence industrial strategy, ensuring our defence staff have the capabilities and skills needed, and delivering procurement reform.

The Review will be conducted in consultation with allies, industry and external experts and its recommendations will be reported to the Prime Minister and Defence Secretary, as well as being laid before parliament.

A major element of the Strategic Defence Review will be an emphasis on deepening our defence ties with NATO countries and other international partners.

Over the next two days, the Prime Minister will meet our most important allies for the first time on the international stage, to drive forward progress on defence and other priorities – including supporting Ukraine against Russia’s ongoing illegal war, which has now entered its third year. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

08 Jul 24. How will John Healey lead defence in the new Labour government? The hard work has only just begun for the fledgling government as the MoD looks to deliver equipment and project a credible force posture.

“The country has new leadership. This Ministry has new leadership,” declared the newly appointed UK Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey, in his first address to staff at the Ministry of Defence (MoD) when he arrived on 5 July 2024.

An optimism bias has pervaded British public opinion following an historic denouncement of the former Conservative government, which has lost 251 seats in Parliament. However, it is dificult to feel such a sentiment when it comes to defence, a topic brushed aside by concerns over the health service or the climate (albeit meaningful concerns).

With tension fomenting around the world, the hard work has only just begun for the fledgling government. They will need to deliver from the get-go at the Nato summit which begins 9 July in Washington, marked by the 75th anniversary of the military alliance.

So who will be holding the reins in defence? What issues can we expect the MoD to tackle in the near-term?

Having served as Shadow Defence Minister since 2020, John Healey has dropped the oppositional prefix as he steps up to steer the helm at the MoD.

It is clear that Healey’s parliamentary career path, spanning more than 25 years, has determined his priorities in defence. Serving in positions in housing, health, adult skills and flood recovery among others, during the New Labour administration and the subsequent wilderness years, has cultivated a deep concern for personnel and their families.

While 14 years of Conservative government “hollowed out” the armed forces only to obtain complex weapon systems that pushed programmes into lengthy delays, Healey suggested that due concern for troop living standards became an afterthought, if thought about at all.

As part of what he has called his new “moral contract with the military,” the new Labour Defence Minister has vowed to support them, and to establish a new position entitled Armed Forces Commissioner tasked with improving service life. A policy conceived in June 2023, the role will be set up by a Bill in Labour’s first King’s speech.

Assessing the state of the British Army, GlobalData Defence Analyst Tristan Sauer has suggested that this is a sensible priority. Although “Britain has always been very good at focusing on innovation,” there is also a political argument that this has been “undermined” by the minimal investment in soldiers, leading to inadequate barracks and little medical coverage to name a few problems. Sauer noted that this has negatively impacted retention, which has led to a feeling that “the government has lost sight of them.”

Nato and Ukraine ahead of the summit

Of course, Healey also faces a contested world order and a need to project a credible posture. This side of things will be guided by the new principles of a ‘changed’ Labour Party. Healey listed them in an article in March 2024, for a local newspaper in his Yorkshire constituency:

“I set out our core principles – with unshakable Labour commitments to Nato, our nuclear deterrent, international law, and to building more in Britain.”

Appealing to the country with a more centrist mould has left little difference in policy compared with the previous government. Although, there is space for Healey to put some ‘change’ in motion when they hit the ground running at the Nato summit.

It may be high time that Healey and Starmer lay down a roadmap to fulfil their pledge to spend 2.5% of the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, or maybe go a little further.

One research fellow at the Council on Geostrategy, William Freer, suggests the UK should encourage allies to commit to spend not 2% but 2.5% of GDP on defence, and should move its own defence spending to 3% to convey its own commitment. “This would ease tensions between Washington and many of Europe’s free riders,” he stated.

When it comes to Ukraine, Healey has already begun work two days into the job. During a visit to Odesa on 7 July, he declared the Labour government’s first military support package to Ukraine after meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his counterpart, Rustem Umerov.

The package comprised ammunition, missiles, artillery guns and boats among other things.

However, this commitment represents a sense of continuity with the previous Conservative government as the aid builds directly off of the Conservative’s largest package of support in April 2024. If Healey and his department are going to make any meaningful change, it will be in evaluating what their support to Ukraine might look like going forward.

Principal and founder of UK-Ukraine Tech Exchange – a non-profit organisation dedicated to supporting startups in the two countries while contributing to Ukraine’s war effort – Andriy Dovbenko offered his thoughts:

“The unspeakable atrocities in Ukraine have demonstrated that more than just increases to public defence budgets will be required to combat any threats. We also need to stay on the cutting edge of defence innovation and invest in emerging technologies that will help to achieve and maintain security,” he asserted.

MoD procurement process

Although the new government has expressed its commitment toward Nato, Ukraine and the defence industry, how they will go about implementing meaningful change remains to be seen, although given the Nato summit this will quickly unravel later this week.

“Are we going to move to something that forces decisions earlier on? Is there a drive to build a coherent force and enablers for it to operate?”

Matthew Savill, RUSI.

Nevertheless, there is a need for some serious soul-searching on the MoD’s part; especially in defence procurement, when it comes to delivering the resources the armed forces need.

“What will change?” asked Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in a briefing on 8 July. “Are we going to move to something that forces decisions earlier on? Is there a drive to build a coherent force and enablers for it to operate?”

In May 2024, Defence Equipment & Support – the MoD’s procurement branch – announced that a new Integrated Procurement Model would be in “full flow” by the beginning of 2025. This Model is designed to ensure “a clear focus on pace and consistent, timely delivery” is achieved in programmes from the very start, contended James Cartlidge, the former Defence Procurement Minister.

Savill considered the MoD’s procurement process and found that “the majority of programmes are on time and in cost,” he affirmed. “The problem is that the big [programmes] go off course so much it throws out the whole porgramme. You got to estimate it bang on over the year and for the programme to expect delays.”

He continued: “I expect the new [IPM] to be used, but what they need to think about is what kind of central control and finance discipline do they think is necessary? They’ve got to stop having these spending increases predicated on the idea it’s efficient, in truth they never make these full efficiency savings.” (Source: army-technology.com)

 

08 Jul 24. US giving Poland another $2bn loan to buy American-made weapons. Warsaw “has a list of things they want to achieve” with the cash infusion, a State Department official told Breaking Defense ahead of a forthcoming formal announcement. The US is supplying Poland with a new $2 bn loan for Poland to help them buy American-made weapons, Breaking Defense has learned.

The loan is the second such loan made to the NATO ally in the last calendar year — a sign, a State Department official said, of how dedicated Poland is to strengthening its defense.

“It’s impressive that it hasn’t even been a year and they [Poland] are moving out pretty quickly,” the official told Breaking Defense on background.

“We’re happy with the process. We see it as a success. We’re happy that they’ve been able to move out quickly — not only does it help NATO, it helps the US defense industry as well, the US economy. So, we’re definitely happy with the process.”

The money is allocated through the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, which stipulates the dollars have to be spent on US-made weapons. But unlike traditional FMF dollars, which work as grants handed to nations to fund the purchases, this loan comes with interest that will have to be paid back to the US government. Washington put up $60 m to cover fees and guarantee the loan.

While declining to share exactly how the first loan has been allocated, the official said the money has either been spent or is earmarked for purchases. However, they said roughly half of that total is funding the purchase, announced in late May, of four aerostat-based early warning radar systems.

The official added not to expect major details of how Poland will spend the new loan during this week’s NATO summit, but said Warsaw “has a list of things they want to achieve” with it and that announcements should be forthcoming.

In a statement, the State Department emphasized Warsaw’s contributions to American security interests, noting “Poland is a leader in NATO, currently spending four percent of GDP on defense, the highest in the Alliance. Poland hosts thousands of U.S. and Allied forces, including U.S. V Corps Headquarters (Forward) in Poznan.”

A loan-based FMF structure is new, at least in recent decades, and gives flexibility for the interagency to get FMF funding to foreign allies without needing to wait on the appropriations process. Congress recently extended the authority to do this kind of loan through the end of fiscal 2025, which raises the obvious question: Are other countries going to get similar loans going forward?

“We are looking at it, and there are other countries that remain competitive,” the official said. “The reason you’re seeing Poland is, of course, the situation with the ongoing war in Ukraine. They’re ready to move out, and their government is set up in a way [where] they’re prioritizing defense spending.

“So we are in conversations with multiple countries, but there are of course bureaucratic process of moving things out. Poland is sort of the tip of the spear on this for us right now.”

Asked about a third such loan, the official ruled nothing out, saying that there is constant communication with Warsaw and that Poland “remains competitive” for future loans.

Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Poland has been spending heavily on defense investments. From the US, Warsaw has announced plans to buy Abrams tanks, Apache and Black Hawk helicopters, and HIMARS rocket launchers, and has sought further Patriot batteries. It had already agreed to purchase the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter before the conflict began.

Outside the US, Poland has invested heavily in South Korean-made K2 tanks, Chunmoo rocket launchers, K9 self-propelled howitzers and FA-50 combat aircraft, and at least two Swedish early warning aircraft.

(Source: Breaking Defense.com)

 

08 Jul 24. France: Hung parliament will drive policy stagnation, polarisation risks. On 7 July, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) became the largest alliance in the French National Assembly after the second round of voting in the snap parliamentary election. However, it failed to secure a governing majority. Despite Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s resignation offer, President Macron has requested him to remain in position in the short term. The NFP won 188 seats, ahead of Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally (RN), which won 142 seats, and Macron’s ‘Together’ coalition, which secured 161 seats. As such, the election has resulted in an unprecedented hung parliament with no political bloc winning an absolute majority (289 seats). Given that the constitution prohibits the dissolution of the government within a year of the snap election, Macron will likely need to form a technocratic government to maintain stability during upcoming events like the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. However, we assess that such a government would almost certainly be unable to pass key legislation, leading to severe policy stagnation and confidence risks for businesses. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Jul 24. Germany: Budget agreement will improve government stability risks, investment stability outlook. On 5 July, the German government confirmed that it had reached an agreement on the 2025 budget and a stimulus package. The development comes after months of political deadlock and protracted talks between the coalition members over a wide range of budgetary issues. The coalition, which includes the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens, has now agreed to increase defence spending while also focusing on property development. The previous budget was overturned by the Federal Constitutional Court in November 2023, which claimed that efforts to circumvent limits on public borrowing to access EUR 60bn (USD 65bn) in unspent emergency credit were unconstitutional. This led to months of political uncertainty and threatened the stability of the coalition. With a new budget now agreed, we assess that government stability risks will likely reduce in the short-to-medium term. Meanwhile, new rules that allow companies to write down the value of their assets more quickly in tandem with reduced bureaucracy will likely improve the investment outlook after months of sluggish growth. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Jul 24. Biden to host NATO summit geared at ‘managing expectations.’ The most memorable part of last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania happened before it even began.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, upset that his country wouldn’t get a timeline for membership, scolded the alliance online.

“Ukraine also deserves respect,” he wrote.

In order to avoid a repeat of last year, the 2024 summit in Washington has been much more closely coordinated. Multiple European officials told Defense News that planning began months earlier than usual. And many delegations are using the same slogan: “Managing expectations.”

Now that the summit has arrived, the events around it are proving difficult to manage.

French President Emmanuel Macron, a persnickety but dogged NATO advocate in Europe, is facing political gridlock after parliamentary elections left the National Assembly, the lower house, fractured from the extreme left to the extreme right.

And while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv last week, he went on to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow shortly thereafter. Orban, who has previously slow-walked European aid to Ukraine, framed his visits as a peace mission but his suggestion that Ukraine order a truce before peace negotiations drew a frosty response from Kyiv.

Even more concerning for NATO is the state of its main backer. U.S. President Joe Biden is trying to contain a crisis at home after a catastrophic debate two weeks ago. Supporting the alliance has been one of Biden’s signature issues. Now, many in his own party say he shouldn’t even be the nominee — making the return of a NATO-skeptic Donald Trump to the presidency more likely.

The upshot is a split 75th birthday for NATO. By some measures, like membership and spending, the alliance is stronger than ever. And yet, many members are searching for ways to “Trump proof” its support for Kyiv while trying to protect their own security. Despite a more unified message this year, and a large package for Ukraine, European officials acknowledge the political situation is a major distraction.

“Right now the policy is support Ukraine,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official focusing on European security. “Could it change? Sure. But right now, the big affirmation is going to be NATO at 75 years and look what we’re doing to help Ukraine.”

A senior U.S. administration official told reporters on Friday that allies “will reaffirm that Ukraine’s future is in NATO, will make significant new announcements about how we’re increasing NATO’s military, political and financial support for Ukraine.”

“The Washington summit will send a strong signal to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that if he thinks he can outlast the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine, he’s dead wrong.”

Three-part package

As has been the case since Russia’s full-scale invasion over two years ago, the biggest part of this NATO summit will be backing Ukraine.

Heading into the meetings, officials and analysts outlined a three-part package.

The first piece will be equipment, likely including urgently needed air defense batteries and interceptors for Kyiv.

NATO will also take a larger role in the process. To this point in the war, the U.S. has led the effort, with a monthly meeting convened by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. This Ukraine Defense Contact Group has helped raise and direct around $100bn in aid.

The alliance is now taking on some of those tasks. In June, NATO announced a command of 700 personnel in Germany that would also help steer aid to Ukraine moving forward. Speaking with reporters on the condition of anonymity before the summit, a European official predicted this group would take on more authority over time.

“We are crossing that line,” the official said. “We are giving NATO greater role in terms of assistance to Ukraine.”

Biden will host an event at the summit with Zelenskyy and nearly two dozen allies and partners who have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine.

A final part of the package is what the final communique will say about membership for Ukraine. The delegations are still haggling over how to word it — a “bridge,” an “irreversible” path or some combination of the two. Whatever the language, the same European official said it needs to be firmer than the conditional phrasing of the Vilnius communique.

To many in Ukraine, though, this back and forth misses the point.

“We know we will probably not get an invitation to joint NATO,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Committee on Foreign Policy Committee in Ukraine’s parliament. “The question is what we will get instead.”

Parsing the words in the communique when Ukraine has known membership isn’t on the table ignores more important questions: like the alliance’s readiness and Russia’s threat beyond Ukraine, argued Maksym Skrypchenko, who leads the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a think tank in Kyiv.

“People [in Ukraine] are very frustrated with NATO,” he said. “They feel like NATO isn’t working and Russia can invade the Baltic states and nothing will happen.”

‘Done this before’

Despite that mood, there are signs that the Washington summit is more unified than last year’s.

In a post last week, Zelenskyy predicted “there are good things to come” on air defense, membership and security agreements.

NATO will also have a clutch of good news to celebrate. It’s hit a record number of members spending at least 2% of GDP on defense — expected to hit 23 this year compared to only three a decade ago. It has a new member, with Sweden ending a long accession process in March. And there’s a new secretary general coming, now that former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte earned enough support in June.

That said, the political malaise surrounding the summit will make the work harder, multiple analysts and officials said. Asked whether the optics of a weakened American and French president would distract from the real policy discussions, another European official was terse.

“Yes,” the official said.

Hence, despite the carefully coordinated messaging, many members of the alliance will arrive in Washington looking for reassurance, or even trying to hedge against the whiplash of a second Trump term by meeting with his campaign or conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation.

Others are skeptical such an approach could work.

“I find this notion of future-proofing or even Trump-proofing the alliance, to be frank, a little bit laughable,” John Deni, a former adviser to American military leaders in Europe, said on a press call hosted by the Atlantic Council.

Deni’s argument was two-fold.

One, there is no country in NATO with the ability to replace a more distant United States, economically or militarily.

And two, NATO has been through these political transitions in the past, including with American leaders thought to be insufficiently committed to Europe.

Every expert on the call with Deni argued that second point: An alliance doesn’t last 75 years without learning how to survive.

“What I say to Europeans all the time is stop freaking out about Trump,” said Rachel Rizzo, an expert at the Atlantic Council. “You’ve done this before.” (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

 

08 Jul 24. NATO will need 35-50 extra brigades under new defence plans, source says. NATO will need between 35 and 50 extra brigades to fully realise its new plans to defend against an attack from Russia, a military source told Reuters.

The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to provide any more detail about the plans, which are secret. A brigade consists of between 3,000 and 7,000 troops, so generating 35 to 50 more such units would present a significant challenge.

In another sign of the scale of NATO’s challenge as it revamps its posture to take the threat of a Russian attack more seriously following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a security source said Germany alone would have to quadruple its air defence capacities.

At a summit in Vilnius last year, NATO leaders agreed on the alliance’s first major defence plans in more than three decades, and officials have been working on translating the documents into concrete military demands since then.

NATO leaders are expected to get an update on the plans in Washington this week, at a summit to mark the 75th anniversary of the transatlantic security alliance.

Asked for comment, a NATO official said the alliance’s military planners had identified “detailed requirements for troops and weapons needed to defend the alliance”.

“Air and missile defences, long-range weapons, logistics as well as large land manoeuvre formations are among our top priorities,” the official added.

This year could be world’s hottest as June breaks records

“NATO will likely set more demanding capability targets for allies, as we develop forces that can implement our plans and meet the threats we face. We are confident that our deterrence is and will remain strong.”

The defence ministry in Berlin declined to comment on NATO’s future plans as they are classified. It said all allies were called upon to coordinate with NATO on capability requirements, and that these efforts would stretch into the next year.

ADDITIONAL PERSONNEL

It is unclear from where NATO allies might draw the additional personnel for 35 to 50 brigades. Troops could be shifted from other parts of the armed forces, additional soldiers could be recruited, or NATO members could opt for a mix of both approaches.

Air defence is another major shortfall that NATO military planners have identified, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of these systems to protect critical military and civilian infrastructure.

Such systems would be particularly important for Germany as a major logistics hub and staging area in any potential conflict with Russia.

Germany had 36 Patriot air defence units when it was NATO’s frontline state during the Cold War and even then it relied on additional support from NATO allies.

Today, German forces are down to nine Patriot units, after donating three to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022, and the government has started placing orders for Patriot and other air defence systems to boost inventories.

Ground-based air defence systems such as Raytheon’s Patriot are built to intercept incoming missiles.

After the Cold War, many NATO allies scaled down the number of air defence units to reflect the assessment that they would in future only have to deal with a limited missile threat, coming from countries such as Iran.

This perception changed drastically with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent NATO allies scrambling to increase stocks of ammunition and tackle air defence system shortfalls.

The agreement on the first major defence plans since the Cold War, dubbed “regional plans” by NATO, signified a fundamental shift for the Western military alliance, which had seen no need to draw up new large-scale defence plans for decades as it believed post-Soviet Russia no longer posed an existential threat. (Source: Reuters)

 

05 Jul 24. Can Labour fix the UK’s broken defence budget? Following its UK election win, Labour has promised to conduct a root-to-branch review of UK defence programmes and restructure, with an MoD fiscal black hole looming.

Having spent years in opposition, the newly installed Labour Government now has to turn its attention to the affairs of state, among them securing the country’s military capabilities ahead of a seismic end to 2024 and righting the listing defence budget ship.

Speaking in April 2024, then Labour leader and now new Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said that his government intended to raise UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as resources allow”, in a visit to the BAE Systems submarine manufacturing facilities in Barrow-in-Furness.

This did not go quite as far as the Conservative Party, whose 14-year rule has come to an end, which during the election campaign pledged to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade.

Official UK Government figures show that in the 2023/24 financial year, the UK spent £54.2bn ($69.1bn) on defence, or around 2.3% of GDP.

Year 1: a new Strategic Defence Review

Outlining its stance on security, Labour has pledged to conduct a 100-day review to determine the main threats faced by the UK, in what could be a reset or general continuation of foreign policy and defence positioning.

In addition, the new Labour Government will conduct a Strategic Defence Review in its first year in power in order to “fully understand the state of our Armed Forces, the nature of threats we face and the capabilities needed”.

Launching its UK election manifesto in June, Labour noted that the “British Army has been cut to its smallest size since it fought Napoleon and one in five of the Royal Navy’s ships have been removed from service. Over 200 aircraft have been taken out of service in the last five years alone.”

Two key commitments were made, in ensuring the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent – served through the four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and the Dreadnought class replacements, and the nuclear-armed Trident II D5 ballistic missile – and continuing commitment to Ukraine.

UK MoD: dealing with the fiscal black hole

However, in the UK National Audit Office’s (NAO) December 2023 report into the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) 2023-2033 Equipment Plan, it was stated that there was a significant gap between spending and available funding. In simple terms, unless more money is found, or things get cheaper, programmes will have to be cut.

According to the NAO, the MoD’s Equipment Plan 2023-2033 exceeded the then budget by £16.9bn, with costs estimated at the end of March 2023 of £305.5bn compared to a budget of £288.6bn. This figure represented a deterioration compared with the previous year’s Plan, for 2022 to 2032, in which the forecast costs were just £2.6bn less than the available budget.

in UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, more than 22% of UK’s defence spending hike through the rest of the decade will go in covering funding shortfalls in existing programmes, Army Technology determined in April.

Of note, a May Ipsos poll found that, of a survey of 1,090 UK adults conducted between 3 and 5 May 2024, a plurality of 2019 Labour voters oppose an increase in defence spending, while a clear majority of 2019 Conservatives showed support. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

05 Jul 24. Lithuania prepares to withdraw from cluster munition pact.

If the draft resolution is ratified by the President and Parliament, Lithuania will withdraw from the Convention and the country will no longer be prohibited to procure, stockpile and use cluster munitions.

Lithuania will begin efforts to withdraw from the international Convention on Cluster Muntions, a treaty organisation established in 2008, which the Baltic State joined as a ‘State Party’ in 2010.

Also referred to as the Oslo Process, after the Norwegian capital where the treaty was formalised, the treaty is bolstered by 112 ‘state parties’ and 12 ‘signatories’. The difference is that the former status is based on the requirements being approved by a government body, while signatory governments keep good faith with the treaty’s principles.

The Convention agree to end the use of cluster munitions; no longer develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain them or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly; and never to assist, encourage or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party.

In a press release on 3 July 2024, the Lithuanian government explained that it reversed its decision to use the contentious projectile – an explosive weapon system that scatters sub-muntions indiscriminately – as “the assessment of feasible threats has changed radically since then.”

Cluster munitions are highly effective in large territory defence and an efficiency multiplier against large spectrum targets. Replacing standard ammunition with cluster ammunition reduces the logistical burden and costs around half of what it takes for a significantly smaller amount of ammunition to achieve the same impact.

Withdrawal process

A resolution will be drafted and presented to the national parliament and the president, Gitanas Nausėda, that will denounce the Convention. If the resolution passes, Lithuania will withdraw and the nation will no longer be prohibited to procure, stockpile and use cluster munitions.

“The security environment has deteriorated, military risks to Lithuania [have] grown,” added the Ministry of National Defence in their release. “The Russian Federation has become a direct threat to the Republic of Lithuania, all of which requires to revisit provisions of the Convention from the perspective of national security.”

Despite their prospective withdrawal, the government also stipulated that Lithuania will still be bound the UN Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols thus ensuring protection of civilians according to the norms of international humanitarian law.

Controversy and use in Ukraine

In June 2023, US President Joe Biden pledged to send an $800m package to Ukraine, including controversial cluster munitions. The US alongside China, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and numerous others do not subscribe to the Convention.

With both sides in the Eastern European war unable to claim much success, US politicians and military leaders pushed for the vast stocks of cluster munitions held by the US government to be used in Ukraine.

The deployment of cluster munitions by the US is latest use of the US stockpile since Iraq in 2003, later being banned from use or movement if the failure rate of the munition exceeds 1%.

Although, the Human Rights Watch reported that Russia had already been using such weapons since the beginning of the war, and these have had “predictable and lasting harm to hundreds of Ukrainian civilians.”

(Source: army-technology.com)

 

13 Jun 24. Rare Earth Discovery Could Topple China’s Dominance.

Amining company’s discovery of continental Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth elements (REEs) could chip away at China’s global dominance over the materials, which are used to make a range of critical technological and military components.

Rare Earths Norway said last week it had found “a truly transformative asset that can underpin a secure rare earths value chain for Europe.”

“Our ambition is to deliver 10 percent of the European demand for magnet-related REEs (NdPr) in the first phase of our operation,” CEO Alf Reistad told Newsweek. Such REEs have many high-tech applications, including for electric vehicle motors, wind turbines and precision-guided missile systems. The company

Yttrium, neodymium and the 15 other types of rare earths aren’t truly rare, but they are difficult to extract and purify. China produces about 60 percent of REEs and processes 90 percent, accounting for 98 percent of the European Union’s imports and 80 percent of the U.S.’s. This is a national security concern for Washington and Brussels.

The Fen Carbonatite Complex, about 70 miles southwest of Oslo, is believed to contain around 8.8 megatons of rare earth oxides. About 1.5 megatons are believed to be magnet-related rare earths, crucial for wind turbine and electric vehicle production.

NEWSLETTER

“Exploration, development of new technologies, and test mining should lead to an investment decision of NOK10 bn ($943 m) to develop the first stage of mining within 2030,” Rare Earths Norway said.

According to a timeline shared with Newsweek, the company forecasts a production volume of 2,000 metric tons of NdPr rare earths, or about 10 percent of Europe’s estimated demand for 2030, “dependent on financial risk mitigation for the 2024-2026 period and fast-track permitting process.”

The production target rises to 10,000 metric tons, equivalent to around 30 percent of European demand, by 2045.

The Critical Raw Materials Act, which came into force on May 23, stipulates the EU must source 10 percent of its annual consumption of critical raw materials domestically, as well as carry out 40 percent of its processing. Norway is not an EU member, but takes part in its single market.

The act also mandates that no more than 65 percent of a strategic raw material can come from a single third country, to curb the EU’s dependency on external suppliers and lower supply chain risks.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the importance of rare earths in her 2022 State of the Union address, predicting that “Lithium and rare earths will soon be more important than oil and gas.” She noted that the demand for these metals would “increase fivefold” by the next decade.

China has recently demonstrated its willingness to leverage its hold over the strategic metals.

Last year, Beijing tightened reporting controls on exports of strategic rare earth elements. This was seen as a response to U.S. restrictions on semiconductors and chip-making equipment, which the Biden administration says is intended to limit Chinese advancements in military technology.

China’s Ministry of Commerce also announced restrictions on equipment used to process rare earth elements and magnets.

Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry via email for comment. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/Newsweek)

 

03 Jul 24. German arms exports on track to hit record high again. Germany authorized the export of more than €7.5bn (U.S. $8bn) in military goods during the first half of the year, nearing the total amount in 2023, according to recently released government data.

Last year, Germany exported a total of €12.2bn, setting an all-time record for the country that has historically presented itself as extra cautious when it comes to delivering weapons and flexing its defense industry.

But this year, up until June 18, the government had already exported 61% of the value of military items in the first half of 2024 compared to the entirety of the year prior. The majority of the exports this year were classified as “weapons of war.”

The data was released after a parliamentary inquiry by a member of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht political party.

Ukraine remained the No. 1 destination, receiving almost €4.88bn worth of materiel in the first half of 2024. This is more than twice as much as Germany provided to the embattled nation during the entire first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Germany has become a key supplier of arms for Ukraine, second only to the United States. About 65% of German weapons exports so far this year have gone to Ukraine.

Germany has resumed significant arms exports to Saudi Arabia, despite allegations of human rights abuses. The kingdom was fourth on the government’s list of countries receiving the largest totals of German military exports, at almost €132.5m.

Germany effectively froze military sales to the kingdom in 2018 following the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the country’s consulate in Turkey, and amid its military campaign in Yemen.

Notably, the German government provided a note along with its data, saying Saudi weapons sales were related to joint projects with other European Union and NATO partners.

The other three countries in the top five were Singapore at €1.209 bn; India at €153.7m; and the U.S. at €110.6m. Rounding out the top 10 were Qatar, Greece, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil and the United Kingdom.

The government said 91% of German arms exports thus far this year went to close allies — a list of countries primarily in the EU and NATO but also including Ukraine, South Korea, Singapore and several other Western-aligned states in the Indo-Pacific region.

When German voters elected into office the left-of-center government around Olaf Scholz in 2021, one of its campaign promises was to further restrict German arms exports. The country already had strict rules on the books regarding the sale of weapons to countries with poor human rights records, unreliable governments or ongoing wars.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a few months into Scholz’s tenure as chancellor, the governing coalition in Berlin — composed of the Social Democratic, the Greens and economic liberal parties — has reversed course.

Following what Scholz famously called a “Zeitenwende” — a historic turning point — it has presided over the loosening of rules for the sale of German arms, skyrocketing military exports and a significant expansion of domestic military procurement. (Source: Defense News)

 

05 Jul 24. Commenting on the issues facing the new Defence Secretary, Dr David Blagden, from the University of Exeter, said: “The new Defence Secretary will have a full plate during his first 100 days. Immediate priorities will include: an audit of military readiness (e.g. munitions, fuel, stores, material state, and personnel availability); an assessment of operational pressures within – and resources necessary to sustain – the nuclear deterrent; a tour of the Defence Estate to fully appreciate its condition, focused particularly on accommodation and messing; getting a handle on the Armed Forces’ stretched personnel situation (particularly recruitment/retention, ‘gapping’, and overall morale); taking stock of progress and pressures in the the equipment programme (including troubled programmes like the AJAX armoured vehicle and especially needed programmes like the Navy’s replacement frigates); deciding on the scale and objectives of the planned 2025 Carrier Strike Group deployment; assessing the adequacy and availability of further UK support to Ukraine; defining the parameters for a 2024-5 strategic defence review.

“He will also need to quickly get up to speed on the state of – and impose the new government’s preferred strategic direction on – the UK’s contingency plans for an array of undesirable scenarios that London may need to react to: anything from Russia achieving a breakthrough in Ukraine to a resurgence of Islamist terrorism within the UK. Looking further into the future, meanwhile, major questions over the UK’s strategic orientation will need to be answered, including how far the US can still be relied upon to shoulder the lion’s share of European defence, whether and how far to get involved with containing China in the Indo-Pacific, whether to double-down on or retrench from UK entanglements in the Middle East, whether to try to contribute a major land force element to NATO’s defence or instead focus mostly on maritime/air power, and just how large a share of government revenue to commit to defence and security instead of other domestic policy priorities.”

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