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28 Aug 23. FCAS Update. A landmark project involving the UK, Italy and Japan to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035 will stick to its current timetable despite Saudi Arabia’s request to join the initiative, according to one of the project’s industrial partners. Herman Claesen, managing director of Future Combat Air Systems at BAE Systems, the British industrial group, said 2035 was a “fundamental requirement” of the programme for all three nations. “They are absolutely committed to that requirement,” he told the Financial Times. Asked whether there was a risk that the 2035 date might slip given Saudi Arabia’s request, Claesen said “absolutely not”. The FT revealed earlier this month that the Gulf kingdom had pushed to become a full partner in the Global Combat Air Programme. Under the project, launched last December, the UK, Italy and Japan agreed jointly to build a next-generation fighter jet by 2035 to address increasing security threats from China and Russia. But Riyadh’s request has created tensions in the alliance, with Japan opposed to its membership while the UK and Italy are open to the idea. Tokyo is concerned that having a fourth member in the alliance could delay the already-tight deadline. The countries are aiming to develop the aircraft in roughly half the time it took to build the Eurofighter Typhoon, by using advanced manufacturing methods and digital tools. Herman Claesen, managing director of Future Combat Air Systems at BAE Systems, played down suggestions of either France or Germany joining, noting ‘there was no talk about that’ © BAE Systems Claesen said the talks on Riyadh’s bid were being held at government level and that BAE’s focus was on delivering the programme on time, although it was “supporting the UK government with their conversations”. Saudi Arabia has been a leading purchaser of combat aircraft from the UK since the mid-1980s, including the Eurofighter Typhoons built by a consortium including BAE Systems, and has been looking to build a domestic defence industry. UK defence officials have previously told the FT the kingdom is viewed as a “key partner” in GCAP. Saudi Arabia could also bring money and engineering expertise to the project. Japan’s defence ministry said in a statement to the FT that the door was open for the involvement of another country in GCAP, but on condition there would be no delay in the development schedule. It also said Japan would make efforts to strengthen defence ties with Saudi Arabia, which is the country’s biggest oil supplier. The ministry declined to comment on whether Tokyo would support or oppose Saudi involvement. The UK defence ministry said it was “committed to delivering this world-leading fighter jet alongside our partners by 2035”. The Saudi government did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Claesen said other nations were also interested in involvement in GCAP. While securing export orders was a key part of the programme, the question of how and whether other nations could join was getting more difficult given how much work had already been done, he added. “You start to look more at a tiering system or other mechanisms, where at the minimum people could have observer status, all the way to being a full-blown partner,” he said. Japan’s defence ministry said the UK and Italy had emphasised the export potential of GCAP and that it was discussing a review of the country’s policy on exporting arms. Sweden, which launched a joint study with the UK in 2019 to collaborate on a joint combat air development programme, is no longer involved, although Claesen said that did not mean the “door was firmly shut” to Saab, the country’s lead defence contractor. GCAP is being developed at the same time as a rival Franco-German programme that has been plagued by political and industrial tensions between the partners. Claesen played down suggestions of either France or Germany joining, noting that “there was no talk about that”. Berlin’s tough stance on military exports would also be a stumbling block, he added: “The position that the German government is currently taking [is] making it harder [for it] to be attractive to any partner.” (Source: FT.com)
25 Aug 23. Poland: Government will possibly rein in spending plans if it fails to gain majority in October vote. On 24 August, Premier Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed the government would increase spending on defence, healthcare and public sector pay following the 2024 budget approval. Ahead of the general election on 15 October, the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party has reaffirmed its commitment to generous populist spending measures and other benefits to bolster support. The PiS has also placed security at the core of its campaign, as highlighted by the pledge to spend over 4% of GDP on defence in 2024. However, concerns have been raised about their financial feasibility. Opposition parties will likely condemn further military spending and additional contracts over the lack of transparency of previous deals. It remains unclear whether generous social spending will prove politically beneficial for PiS amid persistent high inflation (10.3% in July). With PiS unlikely to achieve a majority and consequently need the support of the right-wing Confederation party, which favours small government, PiS will possibly need to backtrack on some of its spending pledges, slightly elevating policy uncertainty. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Aug 23. Polish defence announcements in August amount to 50% of planned 2023 spend.
A crash in GDP growth and high inflation appears not to have dampened Warsaw’s desire to spend big in defence to recapitalise its military.
Aspree of contract announcements, in what is usually a quiet month for defence developments, has seen Poland propelled front and centre for military observers, with contracts totalling approximately $12.5bn (51.75bn zlotys) confirmed.
Headlining this was the announcement by the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency detailing the US State Department’s approval of a $12bn deal for 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, to fulfill Poland’s Kruk rotary programme.
Other deals across defence domains signed, including a $292.9m contract with PGZ for 400 Light Reconnaissance Vehicles and other platforms, a $100m agreement with Rafael for Spike LR anti-tank munitions, and the announcement of a framework agreement between UK defence prime Babcock and PGZ on the Miecznik frigate programme, which will deliver three new frigates from 2026 in a deal thought to be worth around $2bn.
The spending equates to approximately half of the planned annual defence expenditure announced by Poland in early 2023, where it stated an intention to spend around 4% of its GDP on defence through the year, amounted to around $27.5bn.
The multi-year nature of defence spending will see contracts fulfilled over the course of the lifetime of the programme and is unlikely to always require an upfront single payment. Nevertheless, the deals point to a significant defence spending commitment at a time when the country’s economy is moving in the wrong direction.
Other big-ticket items so far this year include a £1.9bn ($2.4bn) deal with the UK to deliver a new air defence system, which will see London provide 22 Polish air defence batteries with the UK Common Anti-Air Modular Missile (CAMMs) and launchers, under a programme called PILICA+.
Poland has also moved to acquire more than 1,000 K2 MBTs from South Korea, with an initial 180 being off-the-shelf purchase and the remainder 920 made domestically from 2026, as well as acquiring the K-9 Thunder self-propelled artillery system from the same source.
Defence spending big, but at the wrong time?
According to the European Commission’s May country report, Poland’s GDP was expected to grow at an anemic 0.7% in 2023, down from 5.1% in 2022, with inflation at around 11%. GDP growth was forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2024. Inflation was projected to remain “well above” the central bank target, remaining high at 6% in 2024.
GDP in 2022 was around $688bn according to figures from the World Bank. Given the expected growth, similar figures can be anticipated through 2023, although purchasing power will necessarily reduce due to inflationary pressures.
In early 2023, Poland announced its intention to spend 4% of its GDP on defence through the year, amounted to around $27.5bn.
According to GlobalData’s Poland Defense Market 2023-2028 report, the country’s defence posture has taken a “historic turn” since Russia’s invasion of its neighbour Ukraine. As part of a wide-ranging move to replace Soviet-era equipment, main battle tanks (MBTs), tube and rocket artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, new rotary and fixed-wing aircraft, and next-generation submarines and frigates are all major acquisitions for the forecast period – where spending from 2024–28 is predicted to total $135.8bn, or a compound annual growth rate of 10.8%.
The biggest single year-on-year increase came from 2022-2023, where spending increased by $7.2bn, or 55.7%.
(Source: army-technology.com)
23 Aug 23. Spain: King’s nomination to form new government highly unlikely to break political deadlock. On 22 August, the centre-right People’s Party’s (PP) leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo was given the first chance by King Felipe VI to form a new government. The PP secured the highest number of votes in the July election. However, the party’s political alliance with the hard-right Vox party, which performed poorly in the poll, has negatively impacted its chances of forming a viable government. The King’s nomination follows lawmakers’ decision to elect the Socialist Workers’ Party’s (PSOE) candidate as Speaker of Congress, bolstering caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s prospects for establishing a new government. Nevertheless, the King indicated that Sánchez had not yet secured enough support from smaller parties for another term in office. As a result, given the challenges that the two mainstream rival parties (the PP and the PSOE) face in forming a coalition, another snap election towards the end of 2023 or early 2024 remains a realistic possibility. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Aug 23. RAF Practices Rapidly Relocating Fighter Jets for Defence of UK Airspace. Royal Air Force Typhoons have been honing the resilience of UK air defence by relocating across the country without notice. Four Typhoons from XI(F) Squadron, RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire were instructed without prior notice to transfer to MOD Boscombe Down, Wiltshire as part of Exercise Agile Pirate. They were tasked to be ready to operate Quick Reaction Alert – to respond to potential aerial threats in or near UK airspace – without delay, testing the RAF’s ability to rapidly disperse and operate assets vital to UK defence. Later in the exercise they were joined by two F-35B Lightning aircraft, with the fifth-generation fighter jets also taking the opportunity to test their operability at an unfamiliar airbase. The exercise is part of the RAF’s aim to conduct Agile Combat Employment or ACE. It is an approach to operations that requires RAF personnel and assets to be flexible and agile; operating in austere locations with minimal support, constantly moving and changing location to maintain the initiative, and outpace any action from an adversary whether in the UK or overseas alongside our NATO and Joint Expeditionary Force partners.
“The whole series of Agile Pirate exercises are steppingstones to the RAF getting better and better at executing Agile Combat Employment. This exercise has shown we can move our Quick Reaction Alert around the UK, and future exercises will test other vital capabilities focussed on defence of the UK,” said Air Marshal Harvey Smyth, Air and Space Commander.
Support teams from multiple bases provided operations, engineering, logistics, communications, security, and catering to the Typhoon deployment. They too had no prior notice but were able to depart their home bases 3 hours after activation. An Atlas A400M transport aircraft delivered a bulk of essential equipment to Boscombe Down just hours after activation and a day later the deployment was operational.
“Moving at pace presents its own challenges and we have pushed some assumptions to move even faster.
“Agile Combat Employment will change our current mindset and way of operating, and I think in many ways it will bring the very best out in our people; ready to deploy at shorter notice, taking part in more novel activity, and operating without the usual support structures of a main operating base. My experience on Exercise Agile Pirate 10 is that people are thriving on this level of responsibility,” said Wing Commander Paul Hanson, Detachment Commander.
The Typhoons were on standby in hardened aircraft shelters and were airborne within minutes following a scramble call from Tactical Air Command and Control, referred to as Tac Air C2. Specialists from 19 Squadron at RAF Boulmer dispersed to radar sites across the UK to give a full visual of the situation, called the Recognised Air Picture, and control the scrambled aircraft to intercept simulated threats. They achieved multiple successful intercepts of target aircraft, and with this their largest dispersal of Tac Air C2 assets in decades, demonstrated the RAF’s ability to rapidly deploy and operate in austere conditions.
MOD Boscombe Down is the home of military aircraft testing and evaluation. It is a former RAF site which has been operated by QinetiQ since 2001. QinetiQ were extremely positive in supporting the exercise – providing airfield and air traffic services, refuelling, and powered working areas. RAF Typhoons previously conducted Quick Reaction Alert from Boscombe Down in 2012 for the Olympics
The RAF deployment otherwise strived to have a minimal footprint and impact to the site. This meant catering provided by the RAF’s Mobile Catering Squadron – 3MCS, communication links from 90 Signals Unit, airfield security provided by RAF Police, and tented accommodation.
(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/RAF)
17 Aug 23. Sweden: Raised national terror threat underscores deterioration of security environment. On 17 August, security services (SÄPO) raised the national terrorist alert from three (elevated) to four (high), the second highest level. The increase follows a series of Quran-burning protests across the country, which have also taken place in Denmark and the Netherlands, triggering condemnation from several Middle Eastern countries. The SÄPO acknowledged that Sweden has become a higher-priority target for Islamist extremists and that the change was not due to the intelligence of a specific plan, but rather the longer-term threat. Although the government has explored options to make Quran burnings illegal, citing the damaging ramifications on the security environment, concerns regarding freedom of expression and principles of free speech have hindered the process. Despite robust security measures, the threat of an Islamist terrorist attack will remain elevated over the medium term. Major cities, particularly the capital Stockholm, will be at greater risk of an attack. Heightened security measures are unlikely to notably increase business and/or transport disruption. (Source: Sibylline)
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