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22 Jan 23. Turkish embassy Sweden was working frantically on Sunday to keep its Nato bid on track after a furious reaction in Turkey to a provocateur being allowed to burn a copy of the Koran outside its embassy in Stockholm. The prime minister and foreign minister sought to defuse a wave of anger in Turkey, not just from the government but also opposition figures and the public. Sweden, which has some of the strongest protections of free speech in Europe, granted permission for the Koran-burning protest, as it has done several times previously — even after it sparked riots in April. “Freedom of expression is a fundamental part of democracy. But what is legal is not necessarily appropriate. Burning books that are holy to many is a deeply disrespectful act. I want to express my sympathy for all Muslims who are offended by what has happened in Stockholm,” Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, wrote on Twitter. Tobias Billström, Sweden’s foreign minister, added: “Islamophobic provocations are appalling. Sweden has a far-reaching freedom of expression, but it does not imply that the Swedish government, or myself, support the opinions expressed.” The latest setback in Sweden’s attempts to convince Turkey to back its application for Nato membership came on Saturday afternoon when Rasmus Paludan, a notorious Danish rightwing provocateur, set fire to the Koran outside Turkey’s embassy in Stockholm. Turkey had already cancelled a planned visit by Sweden’s defence minister Pål Jonson ahead of the burning, which itself was meant to be the first bilateral meeting since a Swedish group opposed to Nato membership hung an effigy of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan outside Stockholm’s city hall. Hulusi Akar, Turkey’s defence minister, told Jonson the “vile and heinous” protests in Stockholm had rendered their planned January 27 meeting to discuss Nato membership “meaningless”, according to a statement from the Turkish defence ministry. Turkey’s foreign ministry summoned the Swedish ambassador ahead of the Koran burning, the state Anadolu news agency said. “Permitting this anti-Islam act, which targets Muslims and insults our sacred values, under the guise of ‘freedom of expression’ is completely unacceptable. T
his is an outright hate crime,” the ministry said in a statement. It added that the events showed the “alarming level” of Islamophobia and racism in Europe. In Istanbul, nationalist groups protested outside the Swedish consulate on Saturday to read the Koran and demand that Sweden be prevented from ever joining Nato. Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies, said the Nato negotiations had “been thrown into a deep crisis”. “If Erdoğan stays in power, we may be looking at years, not months, before ratification, at least unless other Nato allies step in with any available carrots and sticks to convince Ankara,” he said. The dispute with Sweden and Finland has given Erdoğan unusual leverage over western partners, and public anger over their candidacy could help galvanise his conservative base ahead of general elections expected in May, when he faces a tough campaign to retain power. But outrage over the events in Stockholm provided rare consensus with the opposition. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chair of the biggest opposition party, said on Twitter he condemned the attack on the Koran, calling it “fascism that is the pinnacle of a hate crime”. Hungary has said it will ratify Sweden’s and Finland’s Nato applications next month, leaving Turkey the sole holdout among the alliance’s 30 members. The US recently told Turkey it was “time” to welcome the two Nordic countries into the alliance, echoing comments from Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, while Lithuania has told Ankara the delay was hurting the Baltic states’ regional security. Erdoğan has expressed dismay at Sweden’s previously close ties to Kurdish groups he regards as terrorists. He wants Sweden and Finland to extradite dozens of political asylum seekers he accuses of Kurdish separatism or involvement in an abortive 2016 coup. (Source: FT.com)
22 Jan 23. France and Germany have pledged to strengthen the EU and reinvigorate a bilateral relationship that has been strained by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ensuing energy crisis. French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz made the promise at a ceremony at the Sorbonne university in Paris on Sunday to open a summit attended by their cabinets, the heads of both countries’ parliaments, and about 300 lawmakers. “The war in Ukraine reminds us that it is up to our generation to prevent the dreams of the founders of the European Union from falling apart,” the two leaders wrote in a joint op-ed published in Journal du Dimanche and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “It is now our task once again to ensure that the coming generations of Europeans can live on a continent of peace, prosperity and freedom.” The meeting on Sunday was to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty, which was signed between Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer and was credited with ushering in a new era of friendship between the erstwhile foes. It helped seal the Franco-German tandem that has since underpinned the EU’s development. French and German officials said the conference showed the two countries had succeeded in resolving months of tensions that saw them clash over everything from joint defence projects to how to respond to Russia cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe. The disagreements also played out in Brussels, and hampered decision-making at a key time for the EU as it tried to maintain unity during the war in Ukraine.
The frictions came to a head late last year when Paris delayed an earlier plan to host the summit in October, a move officially made for scheduling reasons, but privately French officials admitted was intended as a warning to Germany. On Sunday morning, pageantry replaced the earlier rancour. In the afternoon, French and German ministers will meet to discuss defence, energy, and security projects. Also on the agenda will be how Europe should respond to the US Inflation Reduction Act, a green energy law that includes subsidies for electric-car makers and other companies. France has been particularly vocal in criticising the IRA as protectionist and called for the EU to help its own green energy sector by adopting a “buy European” act in response. Germany has been cool on the idea, preferring measures to ease EU state-aid rules, as well as market-based reforms to make the European economy more attractive to investors. France and Germany will also discuss defence spending and how to assist Ukraine, officials said. Although Scholz and Macron vowed in their op-ed to be steadfast in supporting Ukraine and said their positions were “perfectly co-ordinated” with partners, fissures have emerged among Ukraine’s European and American backers over whether to send Kyiv modern main battle tanks. Advocates for the move say such weapons would help Ukraine push back Russia forces and retake territory, but Germany is said to be concerned that giving tanks would be a risky escalation that could drag European countries directly into the conflict. Scholz has come under heavy pressure in recent days to authorise the exports of Germany’s Leopard 2 tank, hundreds of which are held in the arsenals of countries such as Poland that want to send them to Ukraine. France has said it is weighing whether to send its main battle tank, the Leclerc made by Nexter Systems, but no decision has yet been made. Military analysts think such a move would not be game-changing given the limited stocks of the Leclerc and the complexity of maintaining them on the battlefield, whereas sending Leopards would have more impact given that more of them are available. “We will continue to support Ukraine — for as long and as comprehensively as necessary,” said Scholz during his speech at the Sorbonne. (Source: FT.com)
21 Jan 23. Turkey cancels Swedish defence minister visit after protest permit. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said on Saturday that a planned visit by his Swedish counterpart to Ankara has been cancelled after Swedish authorities granted permission for protests in Stockholm.
“At this point, the visit of Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson to Turkey on January 27 has become meaningless. So we cancelled the visit,” Akar said.
Swedish Defence Minister Jonson had planned to travel next week to Ankara at the invitation of his Turkish counterpart as the Nordic country hopes to nudge Turkey to ratify its bid to join NATO.
Akar said he discussed the lack of measures for protests in Sweden against Turkey with President Tayyip Erdogan and conveyed his reaction to his Swedish counterpart on the sidelines of a meeting of Ukraine Defence Contact Group.
“It is unacceptable not to make a move or react to these (protests). The necessary things needed to be done, measures should have been taken,” Akar said according to a statement by Turkish defence ministry.
On Friday, Turkey summoned the Swedish ambassador over authorities’ permission for a protest, in which Muslim holy book the Koran will be burned, near the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm scheduled to be held on Saturday. (Source: Reuters)
20 Jan 23. Macron wants €400bn to ‘transform’ France’s forces through 2030. Seven months after declaring the launch of a new “war economy” in France, President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled plans to spend hundreds of bns of euros on defense investments that will “transform” the military over the next decade.
The nation’s next six-year military programming law – known in French as the “loi de programmation militaire,” or LPM – will shape the nation’s defense spending between 2024-2030. Drawing on current geopolitical circumstances and technological developments, Macron will request a €400bn ($433.4bn) investment for the 2024-2030 LPM, he announced in a Friday speech at the nation’s Mont-de-Marsan Air Base in southwestern France.
If enacted, that sum would reflect a 35% increase over the current 2019-2025 LPM of €295bn, and could cover a total of €413bn military needs, he claimed.
The current 2019-2025 LPM’s directive was simple: to “repair our armies,” Macron said. While that effort has progressed and is ongoing, the next LPM will empower France to “transform” its services to more quickly respond to global threats to its territories, he added.
With the proposed funds, France will strengthen and modernize its deterrence, and “massively” boost its intelligence capabilities by at least 60%, including doubling the budgets of the nation’s two main intel and security organizations, Macron asserted. Increased surveillance, particularly via unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is also a priority, along with doubling the capacity to counter cyber attacks.
Macron also spoke of “hardening” the military’s current capabilities under the proposed plan, including transitioning France’s Air Force to a 100% Rafale fighter fleet, away from the current mix of Rafales and Mirage 2000s, both built by Dassault Aviation. He did not elaborate on how that transition might occur.
Other priorities include reinforcing the prowess and protection of France’s frigates, the ongoing modernization of its terrestrial systems, and buttressing its air defense and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. He confirmed that France’s next aircraft carrier – known as PANG for porte-avion nouvelle generation – will be built under this budget, and called for the development of new long-range guided munitions, with a twofold funding increase to do so.
Macron also cited the need for France to invest in quantum technologies, and to more seamlessly integrate drone and artificial intelligence capabilities into its services. He reinforced the need for France to invest in undersea technologies that can reach depths of 6,000 meters, and announced plans to soon unveil a new “overseas strategy” that would support the nation’s overseas territories, calling the Indo-Pacific region the primary potential theater for future conflict.
In his Friday speech, the president also issued a call to France’s defense industry to increase their efficiency and availability in producing new capabilities. Production cycles need to be shortened, and costs must be better controlled, he noted.
Despite the considerable increase in funding over the previous law, the 2024-2030 LPM contains “no luxuries, no pleasures, no comforts,” Macron claimed. “There is only what is necessary.”
The proposal will be sent in the near future to France’s parliament, he said, ahead of congressional debates expected in March, and a vote by summer 2023. (Source: Defense News)
19 Jan 23. RAF and RNoAF agree for close cooperation on F-35 capabilities. RNoAF is currently working on developing its operational capabilities to fly F-35 aircraft. The UK Royal Air Force (Raf) and the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF) have agreed to establish closer cooperation on F-35B Lightning II aircraft capabilities.
The cooperation follows RNoAF chief major general Rolf Folland’s recent visit to RAF Marham in Norfolk, East Anglia, UK, to learn and discover in detail about the RAF’s F-35B Lightning II capabilities, maintenance and training.
RAF Marham is also the home base for the RAF’s fifth generation, multi-role, stealth fighter F-35 aircraft.
During this visit, the RNoAF chief was also accompanied by RAF’s chief of air staff, air chief marshal Sir Michael Wigston.
The two officials discussed various joint opportunities to enhance and strengthen the capabilities of the two nations’ forces. This also includes furthering Lightning II collaboration, as RNoAF also operates an F-35A variant, as part of the global Lightning II community.
The Norwegian forces are also working to develop a wide range of operational capabilities to fly its F-35 fleet of 52 aircraft.
The RNoAF F-35A Lightning II fleet has already started its new role as a ‘Quick Reaction Alert’ force in Norway.
Wigston said: “The RAF and RNoAF share a rich history and it was a pleasure to welcome my counterpart back to the UK this week.
“We explored what more we could do in NATO and as Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) partners ready to defend our collective security, working ever closer together across the North Atlantic, Northern Europe and the Arctic Region.”
Furthermore, the latest meeting provided an opportunity for both the nations’ officials to exchange ideas regarding various future maritime capabilities such as the P8 Poseidon aircraft, operated by both RAF and RNoAF to perform search and rescue duties. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
20 Jan 23. Emmanuel Macron to boost French defence spending in response to Ukraine war. Military budget increase aims to bring France in line with Nato spending commitment. President Emmanuel Macron promised to boost French defence spending to the end of 2030 to reinforce the country’s capabilities in response to new global threats after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The new conflicts of our century will not be of our choosing,” Macron said in a new year speech on Friday at the Mont-de-Marsan air force base in south-west France. “There is no more peace dividend because of the aggression of Russia against Ukraine.” He said the military budget for 2024 to 2030 would be €400bn, if parliament approved, with an additional €13bn in revenue coming from asset sales. That represents a 40 per cent increase in defence spending from €295bn in the last budget cycle from 2019 to 2025. The French defence ministry said the government aimed to bring its spending to above 2 per cent of gross domestic product in line with Nato commitments, but declined to provide specific forecasts. France has regularly fallen short of that target. According to Nato figures, France spent about 1.8 per cent of GDP on defence from 2014 to 2019, and 2 per cent in 2020, the last year data were available.
Germany last year vowed to hit the 2 per cent target and pledged a €100bn fund to modernise its army. Britain already spends 2.2 per cent of GDP on defence and has not yet committed to a big increase in its military budget. Nuclear-armed France began to increase its defence budget in 2017 under the leadership of then newly elected Macron. Those funds aimed to “reinvest and repair our armies”, he said on Friday, but more remained to be done. Under the new budget, defence spending would go up to €59bn annually to the end of 2030. “Nuclear deterrence is what makes France different from other countries in Europe. We see anew, in analysing the war in Ukraine, its vital importance,” Macron said, adding that some of the extra military budget would be used to improve his country’s nuclear arsenal. France will also use the beefed-up budget to purchase new tanks, fighter jets and drones and refurbish existing equipment. Military intelligence spending would also be increased by 60 per cent. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year raised questions among French officials over whether the military could face the challenge of such a high-intensity conflict given its limited stocks of equipment and munitions. France has also had to parcel out donations to Ukraine, such as its Caesar howitzers, because of short supplies. In June, Macron called on French defence contractors including Dassault Aviation and Nexter Systems to go on a “war economy” footing so as to boost French capabilities. But analysts have said little measurable progress has been made since then, citing long delays before the government puts in orders and time it takes to manufacture such weapons. (Source: FT.com)
19 Jan 23. Serbia: President Vucic’s criticism of Wagner Group will help mitigate tensions with EU. On 17 January, President Aleksandar Vucic called on Russian private military contractor Wagner Group to halt its recruitment efforts in Serbia. The group reportedly set up a ‘cultural centre’ in the country in late 2022 and has sought to recruit Serbian volunteers to fight alongside its ranks in Ukraine. There have also been unconfirmed allegations that Wagner personnel were present during the latest erection of border barricades by ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo. Serbian NGO Forum for Security and Democracy has called on Belgrade to sanction Wagner, though this remains highly unlikely as Belgrade has refused to impose sanctions on Russia. Nevertheless, Vucic’s comments signal that Belgrade is unwilling to allow Wagner to establish a notable presence in Serbia, which would be a positive outcome for the Western Balkan security environment and reduce tensions with the EU. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Jan 23. Kosovo: Border tensions increase again as Serbia allegedly violates November agreement. On 18 January, Kosovo’s interior minister Xhelal Svecla claimed that Serbia is in violation of the November agreement on licence plates, with border officers in Kosovo now denying entry for cars with Serbian licence plates issued since December. According to the November agreement brokered by the EU, Serbia was supposed to stop issuing licence plates for Kosovo cities in exchange for Pristina halting the mandatory re-registration of licence plates issued by Serbia. It is almost certain that the renewed dispute about licence plate registration will hinder further talks between the two countries as the EU is pushing Kosovo to facilitate the establishment of an association of ethnic Serb municipalities in Kosovo. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Jan 23. Russia-EU: Brussels’ possible seizure of Russian central bank assets elevates socio-economic risks. On 19 January, the Deputy Head of the European Commission, Vera Yurova, posited the possibility of confiscating the frozen reserves of Russia’s central bank. The bank’s foreign reserves have been frozen since late February 2022 and calls to confiscate these reserves are not new. However, Vera Yurova’s words signal that the European Commission is actively looking for a legal way to seize these frozen reserves, which amount to more than USD 300 bn. Such a move will have an adverse effect on the Russian Federation’s economy by depriving Moscow of capital it could use to stabilise the economy and support its war effort in Ukraine, further elevating Russia’s socio-economic risks. However, the move would also set a major precedent moving forward, and would likely encourage the widespread seizure of Russian oligarch assets across Europe for the same purpose of undermining Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Jan 23. Slovakia: Government instability increases as PM fails to forge a new coalition government. On 17 January, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Heger, stated that he had given up on building a new coalition government after his conservative administration lost a confidence vote in December. President Caputova called on PM Heger to form a new coalition government after the confidence vote, however, PM Heger said talks failed with former coalition partner Freedom and Solidarity party (SaS). As such, it is highly likely that Slovakia will hold snap elections in the coming months which could lead to increased political instability in the country, especially if former PM Fico’s Slovak Social Democracy party (Smer) wins the majority of the votes as several high-profile members of the party are being investigated for corruption during their time in office. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Jan 23. EU-UK-Iran: IRGC terror designation may trigger counter-sanctions; increase in-country security threats to foreign nationals. On 17 January, members of the European Parliament urged the EU to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. This comes amid reports that EU officials have been coordinating with the UK to designate the IRGC as a terrorist group. The move follows the execution of dual British-Iranian national, Alireza Akbari, on 14 January. Amid growing activist pressure, there is a possibility that the EU will list the IRGC as a terrorist group following a non-binding vote on Iran on 19 January. This move would heighten political pressure on EU governments to approve coordinated EU-UK sanctions on the IRGC in the coming weeks. This will likely prompt retaliatory sanctions by Iran and undermine the medium-term prospects of a nuclear deal. The designation and possible fallout would also elevate physical security threats, including that of arbitrary detention, to British and European nationals in Iran over the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Jan 23. British Chinooks land in Estonia to bolster Baltic defence.
Watch: The Chinook deployment is part of a wider allied effort to shore up the Estonian Defence Plan, says UK ambassador to Estonia Ross Allen.
Three British Chinook helicopters have landed in Estonia to bolster Baltic defence capabilities as part of Nato’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP). The eFP is a multinational Nato force deployed to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, on a persistent, rotational basis.
Watching the arrival of the Chinooks was the British Ambassador to Estonia and the Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur, who said the helicopters will help strengthen Nato’s eastern flank.
“As we know, the only threat to Nato as an alliance in this region can come from Russia,” Mr Pevkur said.
“This is why we have to be prepared. This is why Estonia is putting 2.8% from GDP this year, next year 3.2% to our defence.
“And we are putting a lot of efforts to build up our own army. But, as I said, some of the gaps we have to fill with our good allies.”
UK Ambassador to Estonia Ross Allen says the Chinook deployment is part of a wider allied effort to shore up the Estonian Defence Plan.
He said: “The UK is doing more here in Estonia. We’re increasing the size of our headquarters and there will be a brigadier arriving soon to be in charge of all our troops.”
Mr Allen added: “We also had increased contributions from the Danes and the French, the Americans brought a Himars platoon and an infantry company, which is a really positive development, I think.
“So overall, combine that with what Estonia’s doing and the amount Estonia is investing in its own defence, it means Nato has a really, really strong forward defence which is what’s needed at this time.”
The helicopters will be integrated into the exercises led by the Nato Enhanced Forward Presence multinational battle group, based in Tapa. About 900 British soldiers are currently rotating in the Baltic Region.
(Source: forces.net)
18 Jan 23. German Defence minister faces ‘Herculean task’ of making Germany combat-ready. Germany’s new defence minister Boris Pistorius faces a daunting in-tray — and limited international goodwill — as he takes charge of overhauling security policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The former interior minister of Lower Saxony, and a close ally of the chancellor Olaf Scholz, will be immediately confronted by calls from domestic critics and western allies to approve sending battle tanks to Kyiv. He will face resistance over military budgets and pressure to speed up reforms to the Bundeswehr, the federal army, which has suffered from defective tanks — and a shortage of bandages after years of poor procurement and under-investment. He must also repair his country’s image among its allies. “What partners have been missing in recent months is a sense that Germany understands and shares the sense of urgency of the current security situation,” said Sophia Besch, a fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank. “He will be crucial in showing that Germany understands the demands of the current moment — and is willing to step up.” Pistorius — whose predecessor, Christine Lambrecht, resigned on Monday after a series of gaffes — will be flung headfirst into an international clamour to approve the supply of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Kyiv. Germany’s stance will dominate the agenda when he joins a meeting of international weapons donors to Ukraine at Ramstein US air base, in western Germany, on Friday. Berlin’s position is critical because it can not only supply its own Leopard 2s — but can also approve or veto the dispatch of the German-made kit by the 12 other European armies that use them. Ministers from the UK, Finland, Lithuania and Poland have all publicly urged Berlin to approve the tanks for re-export. While the Leopard 2 debate has generated the most noise internationally, analysts say Pistorius’s hardest task will be transforming the Bundeswehr in the way Scholz promised soon after Vladimir Putin’s invasion. In a landmark speech, the chancellor announced a “sea change” in Germany’s approach to defence and security, and unveiled a €100bn fund to make the army fit for purpose. Progress has been slow — only about €10bn worth of contracts have been signed — and the scale of the challenge has been underlined by embarrassing revelations. (Source: FT.com)
17 Jan 23. Bulgaria: Snap election highly likely as long-term political instability persists. On 16 January, President Rumen Radev handed a mandate to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) to form a government. It came after the two largest parties following early parliamentary elections in October 2022, GERB and We Continue the Change, both failed to form their own governments after being handed mandates. However, the pro-Russian BSP lacks potential coalition partners in parliament and will be unable to form a coalition government. Since no party can form a working government, a snap election is now highly likely. It would be the fifth election in just two years, highlighting a pattern of political instability that hindered the country’s recovery from Covid-19 and fuelled policy uncertainty. A snap election is likely to produce another fragmented parliament and political instability will persist. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Jan 23. The Netherlands: Suspected IS leader arrested, highlighting enduring threat of terrorism. On 17 January, the Dutch Police Prosecution Office announced that they have arrested a 37-year-old male in Arkel, Zuid-Holland, suspected of having held senior security services roles with both the Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria between 2013-2018. The suspect arrived in the Netherlands afterwards and applied for asylum in 2019. His hearing will start on 20 January in the Hague, and he will be tried for committing war crimes in Syria. The revelations highlight the enduring threat of violent extremism in the Netherlands, where the counterterrorism threat level is at ‘significant’, the third level of a five-tier system. However, robust law enforcement capabilities are able to largely mitigate terrorism threats. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jan 23. UK Government’s ECJU Posts Guidance UK Sanctions Relating to Armenia and Azerbaijan. The U.K. government’s Export Control Joint Unit (ECJU) has posted on its website guidance on U.K. Sanctions relating to Armenia and Azerbaijan. In February 1992, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) requested that all participating states should introduce an embargo on ‘all deliveries of weapons and munitions to forces engaged in combat in the Nagorno-Karabakh area’. This embargo is still in effect. On 2 July 2014, the UK refined its interpretation of the arms embargo as covering the export, supply, or delivery of all goods and items on the UK military list (which forms a part of the UK strategic export control lists) where this equipment could be used:
- in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, or
- on the land border between Azerbaijan and Armenia Supplies of military list equipment to other end-users; such as, humanitarian, peacekeeping, research or media organisations, will not be considered subject to the embargo, unless there is a clear risk of diversion to the armed forces, police or security forces of either state. This embargo is implemented through the Export Control Order 2008. All export and trade licence applications for Armenia and Azerbaijan as elsewhere will be assessed on a case-by-case basis against the UK Strategic Export Licensing Criteria and we will not issue a licence where to do so would be inconsistent with the Criteria. Additionally, some goods which are not on the UK military list might also need an export licence. These are covered by the military end-use control. Military items transiting the UK are still regarded as being exported when they leave the country and are therefore subject to control. Article 17 of the Export Control Order 2008 includes a transit and transhipment exception meaning that in many situations a licence is not required. This exception does not apply to goods destined for Armenia or Azerbaijan, meaning that a licence is required to transit goods through the UK or to tranship them in the UK with a view to re-exportation to Armenia or Azerbaijan. (Source: glstrade.com)
16 Jan 23. Germany: Defence minister’s resignation provides opportunity to stress commitment to defence policy, Ukraine. On 16 January, Germany’s Defence Minister, Christine Lambrecht, formally announced her resignation. The move was widely expected after she posted a New Year’s Eve message on social media that triggered criticism across the political spectrum. However, there were more serious questions about Lambrecht’s suitability for the position. Above all, she failed to set out a convincing plan for the EUR 100bn overhaul of the country’s Armed Forces which was announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Amid growing pressure on the government to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Lambrecht’s resignation provides Scholz with an opportunity to signal a strong commitment to defence policy and support for Ukraine. However, since her successor will almost certainly be another SPD politician, there is a moderate risk that party politics will hinder the implementation of a clear defence policy. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jan 23. Czech Republic: Pro-Western candidate leads presidential race, potentially reducing EU tensions. On 13 and 14 January, the first round of the presidential election was held in the Czech Republic. None of the candidates won the majority of the votes, therefore, a second round will be held between the two candidates who won the most votes; retired army general Petr Pavel and businessman and former PM Andrej Babis. The next round will be held on 28 and 29 January. During the first round, pro-Western Petr Pavel won with a slight majority over the populist Babis who has been subject to several investigations over alleged corruption. According to polls, it is likely that Pavel will receive around 59% of the votes which will almost certainly mitigate regional tensions with the European Union (EU), considering Pavel’s more pro-Western stance compared to Babis. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jan 23. Turkey F-16 sale likely to face challenges in Congress; rising disputes among NATO members. The Biden administration notified Congress on 12 January of its intention to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. The planned sale would include 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets and 79 modernisation kits. The notification was met with resistance by Senator Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who signalled his strong opposition to the sale until Turkey approves the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. The administration must seek formal approval from Congress on significant arms sales. Turkey has repeatedly held up the prospective approval of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Congressional resistance will likely strain relations with Turkey, as the country leverages parallel NATO accession negotiations in exchange for approval of the F-16 sale. Consequently, there is a rising risk for NATO and regional security. (Source: Sibylline)
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