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25 May 22. Hungary: State Of Emergency.
EVENT
On 24 May, Hungary’s new government under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party took office. On the same day, the Fidesz-controlled parliament issued an amendment to Article 53 of the Hungarian constitution – the 10th modification of the country’s constitution during Orban’s 12-year tenure –, enabling the government to declare a nationwide state of emergency in the case of ‘armed conflict, war, or humanitarian disaster in a neighbouring country’. Following the parliament’s amendment, Prime Minister Orbán declared a state of nationwide ‘wartime emergency’ in Hungary, citing the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Ukraine as imperilling Hungary’s ‘national, energy and financial security’.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The declaration of the state of emergency marks the second time in recent years that Orbán has adopted emergency powers, following a similar declaration during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, this declaration marks the first time that Budapest has cited a war in a neighbouring country as justifying such a decision.
- Orbán’s decision to announce a state of emergency does not reflect fears in the Fidesz government that the war in Ukraine will ‘spill over’ to EU member states. However, it does elevate the risk of the Fidesz government using the war to justify further consolidation of power domestically, limiting activities by foreign and domestic NGOs and restricting protest activities. Specifically, the emergency powers will give Orbán the ability to rule by decree and introduce sweeping legislation at short notice, further increasing regional tensions with the EU over historic allegations of abuse of power.
- In a letter to European Council President Charles Michel also on 24 May, Orbán stated that Hungary will maintain its opposition to the European Union’s sixth sanctions package on Russia, specifically on the prospect of a full EU-wide embargo on oil imports from Russia. Ahead of the European Council summit on 30-31 May, it remains highly unlikely that a solution will be found bringing Budapest in line with the European institutions. However, comments made by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó on 23 May suggest that Budapest may accept a financial incentive, with Szijjártó claiming it will take between 15 to 18 bn EUR of energy investment to reduce Hungary’s reliance on Russian imports. Nevertheless, the imposition of the state of emergency is unlikely to increase willingness in Brussels to commit to such an incentive and will instead further incite Orbán’s critics across the EU, further intensifying diplomatic tensions between Budapest and the wider bloc.
FORECAST
In the short term, it is unclear exactly how Orbán will utilise the powers granted under the state of emergency. However, the move will contribute to Budapest’s increasing diplomatic isolation, with Orbán’s pro-Kremlin stance and ongoing rule-of-law disagreements with the Commission exacerbating tensions within the bloc. With growing dissatisfaction of Hungary’s stance on the conflict in Ukraine – particularly in the Czech and Polish governments, who are increasingly frustrated with Budapest’s position on Russia – the option of EU states imposing sanctions bilaterally on Moscow in the absence of EU-wide consensus is increasingly likely. It is unclear what Budapest’s reaction would be in this eventuality, but it remains likely that the trend in divergence between Brussels and Budapest will persist in the short term.
(Source: Sibylline)
23 May 22. UK signs deal with Lithuania to bolster defence co-operation.
The governments of the UK and Lithuania have signed a Joint Declaration in London on 100 years of bilateral relations.
23rd May 2022 at 5:33pm
The UK and Lithuania will look to build on bilateral defence and trade ties after signing a joint deal, the Foreign Office has announced.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and her Lithuanian counterpart Gabrielius Landsbergis agreed to greater security and economic cooperation between their countries – in the face of growing aggression from “malign regimes”.
Their signing of a Joint Declaration marks 100 years of bilateral relations between the two nations and helps further the UK’s global network of liberty.
Lithuania shares a border with Belarus, a country whose president, Alexander Lukashenko, has forged a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The declaration will look to build on the current defence co-operation the countries share as NATO allies and will increase resistance to threats, including from Russia and China.
The UK’s Foreign Secretary highlighted Lithuania in a landmark speech at London’s Mansion House last month as a country that China had tried to bully economically.
Ms Truss, who has praised Lithuania for standing up to this coercion, said: “The UK and Lithuania are two countries which believe in freedom and sovereignty, and who stand up to authoritarian regimes in Europe and across the world.
“We stand together with Ukraine in the face of Russia’s illegal, barbaric war.
“I have immense admiration and respect for Lithuania and I am delighted that today we are deepening our defence and security relationship, and forging greater opportunities for trade and investment through this Joint Declaration”, she added. (Source: forces.net)
20 May 22. Joint Expeditionary Force deploys to the Baltics. A major UK military headquarters has deployed to the Baltic region in support of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). The Standing Joint Force Headquarters (SJFHQ) is usually based in Northwood, London and is now operating across a further two temporary locations in Lithuania and Latvia, with UK liaison officers in Denmark, Estonia, Finland and Sweden.
The deployment, which is at the invitation of the host nations, will see around 180 UK personnel working near Vilnius in Lithuania and in Riga, Latvia. It coordinates military activities from and between JEF nations in the Baltic Sea region at a time of heightened focus on regional security and cooperation. The deployment was agreed by all ten JEF nations at a meeting of JEF Defence Ministers at Belvoir Castle in Leicestershire in March.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This vital deployment demonstrates our defensive partnerships within the ten nation alliance of the Joint Expeditionary Force.”
The JEF represents a shared commitment with like-minded counties for the security and stability of Europe at this pivotal time.
JEF nations have a common commitment to democracy, security and stability, with a geographical focus on the Baltic Sea region, the High North and the North Atlantic. The UK is the framework nation for the JEF, working alongside partners Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
The partnership is designed to complement NATO, with the potential to deploy worldwide. The current deployment involves over 220 personnel, from the UK and other JEF nations, including specialists in cyber, space and information operations.
Commander of the Standing Joint Force Headquarters Major General Jim Morris said: “The men and women from across our UK Armed Forces and our JEF partners are supported by experts from across government and academia and are well prepared for this deployment which comes at a critical time for European stability.”
The security of the Baltic Sea region has never been more important and this deployment demonstrates our collective resolve to maintaining that security. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
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