NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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05 Mar 22. Ukraine Updates.

Speaking in a video message today, 6 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian forces were preparing to bombard the south-western port of Odesa in the coming hours. Zelensky’s claims follows intensifying Russian military activity around the port city, a key strategic point on the Black Sea coast. Russian warships have already effectively cut off Odesa from the sea, though bad weather out to sea indicates that a potential amphibious landing may now be delayed until sometime next week. A significant offensive by ground forces and the navy on Odesa, along with renewed attacks on Mariupol, would align with Moscow’s objective of gaining control of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, cutting the country off from access to the sea.
The Ukrainian General Staff issued an overview of the current situation on 6 March, stating that alongside heavy fighting in Donetsk, Mariupol and Chernihiv, Ukrainian forces are preparing “the entire defence zone” along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in Volyn oblast, in the extreme north-west of the country. While we have identified no indicators to suggest Russian and Belarusian forces stationed in the south-west of Belarus are moving south to attack Volyn or Lviv oblasts, the announcement nevertheless confirms Ukraine is preparing for the possibility. Following the accidental exposure of an operational map at the Belarusian Security Council earlier this week, it remains our assessment that these forces are most likely positioned defensively vis-à-vis NATO deployments in Poland. However, if the Russian advance against Kyiv continues to stall, Russia may seek to open up a new thrust further west, where these forces may be used offensively and thus threaten the regions adjacent to the Polish border.
The General Staff have also assessed that the Russians intend to capture Kaniv dam, to the south-east of Kyiv along the Dnieper. While it’s unclear at this stage whether Russian forces are in a position to seriously threaten the town and dam itself in the short term, it would be a highly strategic objective. It is the main river crossing south of Kyiv, and would thus consolidate the encirclement of Kyiv and potentially allow the link up of Russian forces operating on either banks of the Dnieper. Indications that Russian operations are expanding into Central Ukraine were also underlined by Zelensky today, when he confirmed that a Russian strike against Vinnytsia earlier today had “totally destroyed” the town’s airport. This reflects the enduring and growing dangers posed central Ukraine, including evacuation routes running through Vinnytsia oblast. Preliminary and unconfirmed reports suggest the missile may have been launched from the breakaway region of Transnistria, which if confirmed would align with our previous assessment that increased military activity from the region will accompany Russian pushes against Mykolaiv and Odesa further south.
The World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned today, 6 March, of “attacks on healthcare facilities and workers” in the intensifying conflict. Although with no direct reference to Russia, the WHO has confirmed six attacks on medical facilities, which would be in violations of international humanitarian law. According to the Ukrainian Health Centre, 16 hospitals have been damaged by Russian shelling to date, killing six doctors. The most intense attacks on medical facilities were in Kharkiv – No. 3 City Hospital, Regional Children’s Hospital, Blood Centre, six doctors were injured, with other bombardments hitting health institutions reported in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Kyiv oblast (Buzova village), Zaporizhzhia region (Melitopol, Vasylivka village), Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv. As Russian forces appear to have stepped up attacks against urban centres and populated areas, more casualties related to humanitarian efforts are expected.
The second attempt to evacuate besieged residents in the south-eastern port city of Mariupol began at 1200 local time (1000 GMT). However, this has already collapsed after a temporary ceasefire agreed for 1000 – 2100 local time (1200 – 2300 GMT) broke down. Ukrainian authorities said that a convoy of buses assembled in Zaporizhzhia was ready to depart for Mariupol to evacuate the residents through the agreed humanitarian corridor – Mariupol – Portivske – Manhush – Respulika – Rozivka, then along the T0803 route to Zaporizhzhia, via Blimak, Polony and Orikhiv. However, the International Red Cross reported that the evacuation mission was halted again for the second day due to continued shelling of Mariupol by Russian and pro-Russian forces. Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Region administration later confirmed that the evacuation mission was cancelled, though a convoy of humanitarian aid was on its way from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol. The Donetsk separatist administration accused Ukrainian forces of violating the limited ceasefire. The prospects of a successful evacuation mission from Mariupol in the near future remain slim, given the intensifying campaign against populated areas.
BBC World News announced that it had been taken off air in Russia, amid Russian authorities’ intensifying crackdown on independent and foreign media. With the Russian parliament adopting a new law threatening up to 15-year prison sentences for spreading “false information”, many international media outlets have been forced to close their bureaus and cease reporting in Russia. Such crackdown will make it more difficult for residents in the country (including foreign expatriates) to access independent reporting on the war. That said, the BBC has provided information on how to circumvent Russian censorship, and will continue broadcasting World Service English news for four hours a day to Ukraine and parts of Russia via two newly launched shortwave frequencies: 15735 kHz from 1400 GMT to 1600 GMT; 5875 kHz from 2000 GMT to 2200 GMT.
Unconfirmed reports emerging over the last 24 hours have indicated that Belarusian Chief of the General Staff Major General Viktor Gulevich has allegedly tendered his resignation to the country’s defence minister over his not supporting the invasion of Ukraine. Apparent scans of Gulevich’s resignation letter alleged widespread refusal among Belarusian officers and soldiers to undertake operations against Ukraine, even though President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has stated Belarusian forces will not support offensive operations inside Ukraine – a pledge that should be treated with scepticism given previous broken promises. The Belarusian Defence Ministry has reportedly denied claims that Gulevich has resigned, and at this stage cannot be independently verified. Nevertheless, if true it is the latest indicator that Belarusian morale within both the officer corps and the wider military is extremely low, with social media sources are reinforcing this assessment.
Related to this development, reports show that Russia is mobilising new units from the Eastern Military District and moving them westwards, which will take over a week to reach Ukraine. This indicates not only that Moscow understands the need to commit more combat power in Ukraine as their offensive continues to stall, but also that they have little intention of de-escalating at this point. While again unconfirmed, Gulevich’s potential resignation may be a response to increasing pressure from Moscow for Belarus to commit their own forces to support the Russian advance, amid this wider need for more troops. In the coming days and weeks, we may thus also see increased pressure exerted on Moscow’s other Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) allies to supply troops, or at least logistical support, to Russian operations. Kazakhstan had allegedly already denied such calls early during the first week of the invasion, but as the war continues this pressure is likely to build. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, two of the poorest and least military prepared states in Eurasia, have already confirmed that they stand ready to support Russian military operations, but Moscow may now also want more overt support from Kazakhstan and Armenia if the offensive continues to stall.
According to the police-monitoring website OVD-info, Russian authorities have arrested over 2,500 people in 49 cities during anti-war protests today alone, 6 March. As the day progresses these numbers are likely to increase, but appears to indicate that anti-war sentiment is once again materialising on the streets. This uptick in protest turnout comes despite the imposition this week of draconian censorship laws that threaten up to 15-year prison sentences for reporting “fake news” about the war and conducting actions deemed supportive of a hostile power, which could include anti-war demonstrations.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated today, 6 March, that the Foreign Ministry would publicly name countries and specific companies that are “violating sanctions against the Russian Federation”. The move will likely begin a “name and shame” policy that will increase reputational risks for any Western firms maintaining commercial ties to, or operations in, Russia. As more and more Western firms confirm total cessation of operations inside Russia, pressure will continue to mount on all other firms to do likewise, regardless of whether their operations remain unaffected by extant international sanctions. Considering Ukraine has so convincingly won the strategic communications war, such name and shame tactics are highly likely to resonate strongly amongst Western consumers, staff and shareholders.
Having already imposed export controls to Russia, South Korea has announced sanctions on Belarus over Minsk’s active support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. According to a South Korean Foreign Ministry statement on 6 March, restrictions on Belarus will be similar to those on Russia, banning the shipments of strategic items such as electronics, semiconductors, computers, information and communications, sensors and lasers, navigation and avionics, and marine and aerospace equipment. Seoul has also joined the move to block some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system. South Korea’s latest sanctions reflect the unprecedented response from the Asia-Pacific region to the escalating war, with countries are not known to use punitive economic policies, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, following the US and Europe in implementing economic and financial sanctions on Russia (and in some cases Belarus).
Meanwhile, international credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Russia’s rating to Ca on 6 March – the agency’s second-lowest rating. This represents a further demotion from the “junk” status denoted three days earlier, underlining the rising default risk for the Russian economy as a result of sweeping and severe international sanctions. Moody’s warned that foreign holders of Russian bonds would likely recoup only part (35-65%) of their investment. With Europe and the US preparing a fresh tranche of sanctions, coupled with many international firms suspending their Russian operations, Russia’s economy will likely take further hits from the fallout of the escalating war.

FORECAST

The collapse of the ceasefire around Mariupol and the subsequent halting of evacuation plans for a second day running underlines the limited scope for any humanitarian missions in conflict zones at present. While further ceasefires and humanitarian corridors are likely to be agreed in Mariupol and other besieged regions, such as Kharkiv and potentially Kyiv, Russian and separatist forces have showed continued unwillingness to adhere to ceasefire agreements on the ground. As such, similar missions should not wholly be relied upon to provide safe extraction as there are no guarantees that humanitarian corridors will be respected.

Evacuation options from Kyiv remain limited and the security situation volatile. Heavy fighting continues in Irpin as Russian forces try to take strategically important towns northwest to Kyiv. Fighting continues along the E40, with Russian army tanks targeting Buzova, Makariv and Zhytomyr today, rendering that route unsafe. The P04 highway to Fastiv also remains unsafe as Russian advances were recorded at Byshiv. While H01 and E95 may remain the safest evacuation routes from Kyiv, both routes saw sporadic shelling in previous days. Of note, Russian forces conducted aerial attacks against Bila Tserkva along the P32 west to H01 on Saturday (5 March), highlighting increasing risks south to Kyiv as well.

On 5 March, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) shared a British intelligence update stating that the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol and Sumy are “highly likely” to be “encircled” by Russian forces, though still remain under Ukraine’s control. Additionally, following the capture of Kherson, some Russian forces have moved north-west, underlining that the pressure on the southern port city of Mykolaiv, continues to increase. As such, in the coming days, advances on Odesa are also likely to increase as a result, with the Russian forces potentially preparing to launch a ground and naval operation against the city. Notably, Russian troops also remain stationed in the breakaway region of Transnistria, and could be deployed to help secure Odesa.

On 5 March, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) shared a British intelligence update stating that the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol and Sumy are “highly likely” to be “encircled” by Russian forces, though still remain under Ukraine’s control. Additionally, following the capture of Kherson, some Russian forces have moved north-west, underlining that the pressure on the southern port city of Mykolaiv, continues to increase. As such, in the coming days, advances on Odesa are also likely to increase as a result, with the Russian forces potentially preparing to launch a ground and naval operation against the city. Notably, Russian troops also remain stationed in the breakaway region of Transnistria, and could be deployed to help secure Odesa.
Humanitarian corridors from Mariupol and Volnovakha have reportedly been agreed, commencing at 0900 until 1600 (local time) on 5 March, with a multi-stage evacuation of civilians scheduled to begin at 1100 (local time). The announcement follows an agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian parties on 3 March on the provision of a humanitarian corridor. However, it is unlikely that the ceasefire will be observed, with reports of violations noted at the time of writing. Pressure on Mariupol, an important port city, has been growing considerably over the last few days, with the city currently surrounded by Russian troops and lacking food, water, gas, and electricity as a result of heavy shelling.
In light of the deteriorating humanitarian situation, the US and Albania have requested an emergency UNSC meeting, set to take place on 7 March. Closed consultations on a possible draft resolution on the ongoing situation in Ukraine will follow, as reports indicate that more than 12 million people living in Ukraine and four million refugees to neighbouring countries will require humanitarian assistance in the coming months. However, Washington cautions that it will not support a draft resolution unless explicitly attributing the cause of the humanitarian crisis to Moscow. In turn, Russian UNSC veto power is highly likely to prevent any such resolution from passing.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corp, CNN and BBC News are among the international media outlets that have suspended reporting from Russia as a result of a new government legislation aimed at restricting independent coverage on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In effect from 5 March, the legislation stipulates a prison sentence of up to 15 years for journalists who propagate “fake news” and contradict official government statements about the Ukraine invasion. Further news outlets are likely to follow suit in halting reporting from Russia, amid concerns over the safety and security of their employees.
Additionally, Russia’s telecoms regulator Roskomnadzor has restricted access to Twitter, following an announcement that it is blocking Facebook in Russia. According to Russian media, the request to restrict Twitter came from the Prosecutor General on 24 February, the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine. The developments are on trend and follow the government’s new rules that ban media outlets from referring to the crisis in Ukraine as a “war” or an “invasion.” As such, it is highly likely that other social media and communication platforms will be placed under greater pressure and restrictions as the authorities move to clamp down on the spread of information and assume control over the information landscape.
Mass protests in solidarity with Ukraine took place in Georgia, with thousands demonstrating against the war. The events follow the Georgian government’s announcement this week that it intends to apply for EU membership. Since the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, Tbilisi has worked towards NATO and EU membership, though in recent years under the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party these efforts have slowed, with GD often avoiding publicly condemning Moscow. Nevertheless, the expected application represents another key escalation flashpoint given that the same security concerns that justified the invasion of Ukraine, namely post-Soviet states’ integration into Western alliances and blocs, applies to Georgia, though arguably to a much lesser extent.
The press office of the President of Ukraine announced on 5 March that a designated website will soon be available to assist individuals who are arriving to join the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine. The website will be named “fightforua.org” and supplements President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent changes to migration laws, namely the issuing of a decree on 1 March to waive any visa requirements for foreigners seeking to join Ukrainian forces, with an estimate of approximately 16,000 foreign fighters reportedly having formally signed into the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.
US-based payment company PayPal has reportedly suspended services in Russia, with the company’s CEO Dan Schulman noting that the organisation “stands [with] the international community in condemning Russia’s violent military aggression in Ukraine”. The development underlines the growing number of companies engaging in “self-sanctioning”, which is becoming an increasingly widespread concept among Western firms that threatens to notably hit the Russian economy beyond what sanctions on paper could achieve. An increasing number of Western firms are going beyond the sanctions dictated by national governments and breaking ties with Russia in numerous sectors, including in the crucial energy sector, in light of uncertainty about what sanctions are in place and reputational risks and moral objections to Russia’s actions. However, these increased efforts to isolate Moscow financially will also subsequently drive the risk of reprisals and cyber-attacks by Russia, likely adding additional pressure on Western businesses operating in Russia.

FORECAST

A temporary ceasefire has reportedly been announced in two south-eastern cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha, to allow civilians to evacuate via humanitarian corridors. However, the likelihood of the ceasefire being observed is slim, with media reports noting that Mariupol officials are already accusing the Russian forces of violations and failure to observe the ceasefire along the entire evacuation route. Pressure on Mariupol is highly likely to intensify over the next 24-48 hours, with the city essentially surrounded by the Russian forces and without access to water and electricity. In line with our previous assessment, further ceasefire violations remain highly likely, as Russian forces resort to more violent tactics targeting civilians.

Restrictions on social media and messaging platforms in Russia remain on trend, with Russian media regulator Roskomnadzor’s decision to block Facebook in Russia, the latest indication that Russia is stepping up its efforts to control the narrative about the war in Ukraine. As such, further penalties and an even stricter regulation of the information space are highly likely in the days ahead, particularly as more businesses move to break ties with Russia, and the longer the aggression against Ukraine continues.

Evacuation routes from Kyiv continue to narrow as the Russian armed forces now control the E40 highway’s approach to Kyiv. Whilst Russian control is only seen up to Makhariv, this area is likely to see a sustained push from the Ukrainian armed forces to recapture the vital highway and as such is no longer advisable for evacuation. The southbound H01/P01 and E95 are presently safer, although the E95 continues to see sporadic shelling in its vicinity near Vasylkiv, meaning the H01 may currently be the safest road route out of the city.

The planned evacuation from Mariupol was postponed after a Telegram post from Mariupol City Council announced at 12:42 (local time) that the ceasefire agreed earlier to facilitate the establishment of humanitarian corridors has not been observed. Shelling of the city continued, including along the identified humanitarian corridor, preventing civilians from fleeing. Both sides continue to trade accusations over the breakdown of the ceasefire, with the Russian side pinning the blame on the “Ukrainian nationalists”. Ceasefire was also breached in Volnovakha, underlining the extremely high degree of volatility of these agreements and the high likelihood of them being violated. The Mariupol city council also announced that they would continue negotiations with Russia in relation to establishing a ceasefire for citizens to be safely evacuated to either Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, or a separate safe destination. However, it remains our assessment that any future ceasefire agreements cannot be relied on and must be treated with caution.
On 5 March, the UK has urged its citizens to consider leaving Russia “by remaining commercial routes.” The announcement follows the government’s advice earlier this week urging citizens against travelling to Russia in light of a growing number of flight restrictions and geopolitical volatility. Additionally, Aeroflot, the flag carrier and largest airline of Russia, announced that it is suspending all international flights, except for to Belarus, on 8 March. Additionally, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has recommended that airlines operating aircrafts leased from foreign airlines that are not registered in Russia to suspend such flights to overseas from 6 March, and from overseas from 8 March. Additionally, unconfirmed reports also suggest that train tickets for the next two weeks have been sold out in Russia, indicating that a growing number of people are attempting to leave Russia amid rising concerns about a possible introduction of a martial law or similar anti-crisis measures. The government will continue to increasingly move to establish control the narrative regarding the war in Ukraine and prevent potential grassroots mobilisation and unrest.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the Russian government was drawing up plans to support the Russian economy as pressure from the various international sanctions continues to grow. Peskov described international sanctions as “economic banditry”. The economic fallout of the war continues to deteriorate in Russia as more and more international companies look to break connections to the Russian market. In the latest attempts to inflict economic penalties on Russia, Singapore announced that it is preventing all local financial institutions from conducting transactions, including through cryptocurrency, with five major Russian banks, joining other Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan who have also taken strict economic measures against Moscow. With Putin set to continue on the current course against Ukraine, it is increasingly likely that even more Russian banks will be targeted by the West with sanctions in the coming days and weeks, with basic living standards in Russia likely to begin to be seriously impacted. Russia has so far borne the majority of the costs of an invasion, but has of yet secured very few political goals or strategic wins in Ukraine. As such, Moscow will continue prosecuting the war, and escalating if necessary, since the economic costs of sanctions have already been factored in to the continuation of the conflict – though their extent was likely not anticipated by the Kremlin.
On 5 March, British workers refused to unload Russian oil from a German-flagged ship moored at the Stanlow Oil Refinery in Cheshire that supplies 16% of road transport fuels in the UK. Earlier this week, dockers at Kent also refused to unload Russian gas while Dutch dockers have promised future boycotts, even declaring that they were prepared for legal battles with oil and shipping companies. These actions will add to the volatility of the global oil market, with reduced supply affecting industrial activity and gas prices across Europe. The events are also the latest examples of growing attempts to put pressure on the Russian oil sector, a major source of revenue for the Kremlin which has nevertheless been largely excluded from Western sanctions package.
Demonstrations against Russia’s occupation of Kherson, the only major city that the Russian troops have so managed to capture, are continuing today, with social media footage showing a mass turn out. The events and strong levels of resistance by the local population were likely unexpected by the Kremlin at the onset of the invasion. However, given that Putin cannot lose this war, it remains our assessment that the Russian forces will likely increase their offensive against, including against civilians and civilian infrastructure. Additionally, the willingness and ability to protest may also diminish once should the Russian forces establish control over the local and regional communication channels. In this respect, with regards to Kherson, the Ukrainian parliament warned on 3 March that Russian forces occupying the Public Broadcaster News in Kherson were utilising the facilities to spread disinformation about Ukraine’s alleged “surrender”. Additionally, the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has reportedly stated that the Russian forces began broadcasting Russian TV channels in Melitopol, another captured city where anti-Russian protests are ongoing. These incidents are indicative of the SBU’s late February advisory that Ukraine is being targeted by a Moscow-directed “wave of hybrid warfare”, including misinformation, to stir unrest and advance Russia’s military operations in the country.

FORECAST

As anticipated, the agreed temporary ceasefire to allow for humanitarian corridors has not been observed, resulting in the postponement of evacuations from Mariupol, the potential future capture of which would mark a big gain for the Russian forces as it would cripple Ukraine’s maritime access. Although negotiations are ongoing regarding reestablishment of the ceasefire and safe passage for the civilians via the humanitarian corridors, the likelihood of adherence to any potential agreements is very low.

Additionally, although the third round of talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations might reportedly take place over the weekend, the likelihood of any meaningful outcomes is still assessed to be minimal. Indicative of this is President Vladimir Putin’s reiteration on 5 March that a complete neutrality of Ukraine is needed so that it may never join NATO, a condition that Kyiv will almost certainly not agree to. At the same time, Putin also said that western sanctions on Russia were “akin to a declaration of war”, but denied that a martial law may be introduced in Russia, stating that such speculations are made “to rock Russian society” as more and more people are seeking to leave the country. However, given that the Kremlin would not admit to such intentions anyway, the possibility of such a measure being introduced in the coming days nevertheless remains likely.

Evacuation routes from Kyiv remain limited as the Russian armed forces now control the E40 highway’s approach to Kyiv. Reports that Russian forces intentionally targeted empty trains intended for civilian evacuation in Irpin remain uncorroborated, but likely based in reality following the treatment of the humanitarian corridor out of Mariupol. Further fighting around Makhariv and the E40 is very likely as the Ukrainian armed forces attempt to retake the highway, meaning that this route remains unsafe for evacuation. The southbound H01/P01 and E95 are presently safer, although the E95 continues to see sporadic shelling in its vicinity near Vasylkiv, meaning the H01 may currently be the safest road route out of the city.

Reports over the last 24 hours are clearly indicating that Russia is deploying ever more aircraft over major urban centres across Ukraine, with increased sortie rates and bombing runs with unguided munitions threatening to significantly increase the civilian casualty rates. Today, 3 March, regional authorities in Chernihiv, the site of heavy fighting north-east of Kyiv, stated that 47 people were killed during a Russian air strike on a residential area of the city. As the number of precision munitions available to Russia diminishes following sustained Kalibr cruise missile strikes etc. over the past week, Russian forces will likely rely more heavily on unguided munitions and air strikes as the war continues. In addition, Ukrainian authorities have alleged today that humanitarian aid, including supplies of medicine, food and drinking water, are being deliberately by Russian forces in contested or occupied cities.
On 3 March senior US defence officials confirmed that a ‘deconfliction’ hotline has been established between Russian and US armed forces in Europe on 1 March. The hotline is designed to mitigate and reduce the threat of a military accident or miscalculation triggering an escalation, which remains an increasing concern as the war in Ukraine intensifies and Russian operations move closer and closer to NATO borders in Romania and Poland. While the deconfliction line will not eliminate the threat of military accidents, particularly in the air, it will reduce the risk and provide a line of communication that could prevent an escalation – which Sibylline maintains remains in the interests of both parties at this stage.
Following the attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Kyiv intensified its calls for a no-fly zone to be introduced over Ukraine. Although the subject was discussed by NATO foreign ministers today, Washington has nevertheless reiterated that it is not prepared to support the measure, stating that this would escalate the situation Russia “to a whole new level”. Although Washington pledged to further increase sanctions against Moscow, it is becoming increasingly clearer that despite the likely unanticipated western response by the Kremlin, sanctions are highly unlikely to avert the hostilities. To that end, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reportedly said that the situation in Ukraine is “likely to be worse” in the coming days, indicating that Russian forces are likely to utilise heavier weapons to continue launching attacks across the country, likely resulting in high civilian casualties.
In Russia, a rally against the war in Ukraine was reportedly called for by the jailed opposition critic Alexei Navalny to take place on 6 March at 1400 in the central squares of all cities in Russia, and the world. Additionally, Navalny called for protests to take place every weekday at 1900. In line with previous trends, if the events are able to go ahead, they will almost certainly result in widespread arrests and detentions, with the largely anticipated heavy-handed tactics by the security services likely to also deter a number of protesters from attending in the first place.
Following Moldova’s official application to join the European Union yesterday, the breakaway region of Transnistria, which hosts a battalion tactical group (BTG) of Russian forces, has reportedly today stated that it opposes the decision to apply for EU candidate status. The separatist government has stated that joining the EU would mean the ceding of sovereignty to a supernational authority. The issue is set to further exacerbate an enduring constitutional crisis in Moldova, with the separatist authorities also reportedly using the opportunity to re-table their demands for recognition as an independent state. The timing of this is especially notable as Russian forces move ever further westwards in Ukraine, with a significant amphibious force massing off the coast, which could target Odesa or Mykolaiv. As such, this is a concerning development given that separatist demands for recognition could provide Moscow with a ready-made excuse to intervene in Moldova should it wish, using the same playbook that triggered the current invasion of Ukraine. It does however remain the case that Russia retains other non-military options to influence the domestic situation in Moldova. However, if the operation in Ukraine results in the successful installation of a pro-Russian puppet regime, Chisinau’s application for EU membership (however unlikely in the short-to-medium term) could trigger a similar Russian operation designed to install the pro-Russian Socialist Party in government and stop any their EU aspirations for good.
In line with this growing threat to Moldova, Georgia, another EU aspirant, remains equally vulnerable to an escalation of the current conflict. Reports emerging today indicate that the Bank of Georgia is now requiring Russian citizens who wish to open an account to sign an agreement stating that Russia has been waging wars against Georgia and Ukraine, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and that future depositors are ready to fight against Russian propaganda.
The European Union is reportedly considering efforts to curb Russia’s influence over and access to finance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As the world’s lender of last resort, such a move would mark yet another escalation in financial sanctions against an already internationally isolated Russia. The US is also reportedly moving to limit Russian access to over USD 17 billion in IMF reserves that were dispersed to Moscow last year to help deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. However, while these discussions illustrate Western resolve to continue escalating financial sanctions, it remains unlikely that Russia would be successfully kicked out of the IMF given the need for worldwide support such a measure would require. Nevertheless, it illustrates that Brussels and Washington are still actively pursuing further sanctions against Russia, which is already experiencing severe economic shock as international firms sever their dealings with the country. In the latest example, Microsoft today, 4 March, confirmed that it would suspend new sales of its products and services in Russia.
The latest media reports from Lviv indicate that there has been a malfunctioning of landlines and mobile operators in the city today. The disruption to the region’s telecommunication network followed reports that Russian forces disconnected Vodafone and Kyivstar mobile networks throughout the Kherson region, though it appears that Vodafone at least has successfully stored their service as of around 1600 GMT.

FORECAST

The Kremlin today confirmed that it had refused an offer for direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov nevertheless confirmed that Moscow seeks to continue to engage with the Ukrainian delegation following two meetings this week and the agreement to establish humanitarian corridors. Nevertheless, negotiations are highly unlikely to result in any significant easing in the intensity of conflict in the short term, particularly as Russian forces continue to steadily encircle Kyiv. Considering Russian forces increasingly contest regions to the west of the city and threaten routes out of the city, evacuation routes southwest and south of Kyiv can no longer be considered safe. Fighting was recorded on 4 March in Fastiv, Obukhiv and Vyshneve west of Kyiv, rendering evacuation routes P04 and E95 unsafe.

Reports in the last 24 hours have indicated that an Estonian-owned, Panamanian-flagged cargo vessel sunk off the coast of Odesa, with conflicting reports suggesting it hit a naval mine or was struck by a missile. This latest maritime incident comes after a Russian missile also reportedly struck a Bangladeshi-flagged vessel off the coast of Mykolaiv, killing an engineer onboard. Both these reports and numerous others like them over the last week underline the acute risk to all maritime vessels in the north-west Black Sea. With reports of a sizeable Russian naval group steaming west towards Odesa, the intensity of fighting in south-western Ukraine and the north-west Black Sea is likely to intensify in the coming days, with an amphibious landing potentially occurring today. As such, Russian warships are likely to step up attacks to deter commercial vessels from supplying Ukrainian ports and ensure a clear area of operations for a potential amphibious landing near Odesa or Mykolaiv. In a separate development, the Ukrainian Navy has scuttled its flagship, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, in order to prevent Russian forces seizing it. Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine lost the majority of its surface fleet to Russia.
Last night, Russian forces attacked and took control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, the largest such plant in Europe. As a result of the attack, a training facility within the compound was set ablaze, though local authorities have now reportedly extinguished the fire and confirmed that it had not affected the reactor buildings. No radiation rise has reportedly been detected, according to Ukraine’s State Nuclear Inspectorate on 4 March. Following the incident the UK called for an emergency UK Security Council meeting, underlining the rising threat that the fighting poses to the nuclear safety not only in Ukraine, but in the whole of Europe. The developments follow the Russian forces’ seizure of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on the first day of the invasion, during which heavy fighting reportedly led to an increased levels of radiation, threatening dissemination of radioactive dust. Additionally, the threat to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant renewed calls from Kyiv for a no-fly zone to be imposed. The topic will be discussed during today’s meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Whilst last night’s incident is likely to put further pressure on NATO members to impose a no-fly zone, the measure is still unlikely to be implemented as it would lead to a significant escalation, with the West subsequently more likely to continue providing Ukraine with military aid such as anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons.
On 3 March, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warned via Twitter that alleged Moscow-linked hackers compromised Ukrainian local government and regional authorities’ websites to propagate disinformation and misinformation. These hackers reportedly published a message on the compromised websites about the alleged “capitulation [of Ukrainian forces] and the signing of a peace treaty with Russia”. This alert was soon followed by a tweet published by the Ukrainian parliament warning that Russian forces occupying the Public Broadcaster News in Kherson were utilising the facilities to spread disinformation about Ukraine’s alleged “surrender”. Additionally, the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has reportedly stated that the Russian forces began broadcasting Russian TV channels in Melitopol. These incidents are indicative of the SBU’s late February advisory that Ukraine is being targeted by a Moscow-directed “wave of hybrid warfare”, including cyber attacks and misinformation, disinformation, and malformation (MDM) tactics”, to sow unrest and further Russia’s military operations in the country. Further hybrid MDM and cyber campaigns are highly likely to emerge in the coming day, with Ukrainian government websites and communication-sector firms remaining the primary targets.
The provision of humanitarian corridors was agreed during yesterday’s meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian parties, although it is highly unlikely that it will be observed. Of note, fighting around Kyiv has intensified considerably on the morning on 4 March, effectively disrupting most evacuation routes out of the city. Heavy fighting is not taking place in Fastiv, Obukhiv and Vyshneve west of Kyiv, rendering evacuation routes P04 and E95 unsafe.
On 3 March US Senator Lindsey Graham openly called for the assassination of President Vladimir Putin, asking “is there a Brutus in Russia?”. While Graham is seemingly the first prominent Western politician to openly call for Putin’s assassination, if more do so this would only reinforce the likelihood of further escalation in Ukraine. Moscow has so far achieved none of its political goals in Ukraine, and has effectively become an international pariah that has already accepted the majority of Western sanctions. As such, there are very few incentives at this stage for Putin to deescalate the situation, but increasing numbers of incentives for him to escalate the conflict further: mounting casualty rates, stalling offensives in the north and east of Ukraine, and growing disquiet towards the war inside Russia. The latter issue in particular may lead to the imposition of martial law as early as today, 4 March, during a meeting of the Federation Council. However, open calls from the West for Putin’s assassination will underline in the clearest terms that this war is increasingly existential for Putin, which would only reinforce existing Kremlin paranoia as a significant factor in decision-making in the weeks ahead.
The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) announced that it will halt business connected to Russia and Belarus, in what constitutes yet another sign of China’s growing concerns about the international fallout of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Ties between Russia and China have strengthened in recent years, with Beijing having refrained from criticising Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine. However, with the unprecedented – and likely unexpected by both Beijing and Moscow – level of international support for Ukraine, AIIB’s decision very likely reflects rising concerns about being impacted by the sweeping international sanctions, especially in finance. As such, the longer the war goes on and international support for Kyiv increases, the more Beijing is likely to seek to mitigate the impact on itself, which could in turn expose the underlying fractures in Sino-Russian relations. Subsequently, other Chinese institutions, especially those with significant stakes in Western markets, may be forced to draw down their Russian-linked businesses.
On 3 March, Moldova’s pro-Western government officially applied for European Union membership. The move came days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky applied on behalf of Ukraine and Georgia indicated its intention to also apply for EU membership, though it has reportedly not officially done so yet. In a similar vein to Ukraine and Georgia, Moldova has in recent years taken steps towards Western integration under President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, which won the 2021 election. However, unlike in Ukraine and Georgia, this trend is much more recent, as pro-Russian political forces, namely the Socialist Party under ex-President Igor Dodon, retain significant political influence and until 2021 controlled parliament. A poll conducted by IMAS just prior to the invasion indicated that 52% of Moldovans supported EU membership, but 48% also supported membership of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, indicating a clear pro-West, pro-Russia split. While the invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to have increased support for EU membership within Moldova, EU membership, and even candidate status, remains a distant prospect for the country, something Sandu acknowledged during the application ceremony.

FORECAST

As analysed in previous reports, the EU’s willingness to supply weapons to Kyiv means that EU membership and Russian security are now unavoidably and inherently linked. As such, moves by other post-Soviet states to apply for membership are likely to require a response from Moscow to compel or deter against further integration. The Russian presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria, similar to Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, provides Moscow with coercive leverage against Moldova should it need it, particularly if operations against Odesa succeed in taking south-western Ukraine in the coming days. However, the Kremlin retains much more soft power influence over Moldova in comparison to both Georgia and Ukraine, indicating that there are various options to deter Chisinau short of military action. While the prospect of Moldovan EU membership remains remote, an unexpected policy shift from the EU, such as granting Moldova and/or Georgia candidate status, could nevertheless trigger an escalation that necessitates a response from the Kremlin’s perspective. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is ultimately designed to stop Ukraine’s Western integration, and so it remains feasible that should EU policy towards expansion change, Russian military compellence may be utilised in the wider region to prevent more post-Soviet states drifting further Westwards.

In this context, there are at least three tiers for potential spill over from the war in Ukraine that will likely determine the shape of any further escalation in the region. The first tier, and most likely arenas for Russian escalation and military coercion, comprises of non-EU and non-NATO post-Soviet states – namely Georgia and Moldova. As above, these states share the most similarities to the ongoing situation in Ukraine, namely post-Soviet states that aspire to EU and NATO membership. These states will remain the most vulnerable to a potential escalation given that Moscow retains a military presence inside their borders via the breakaway republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. As such, the Kremlin retains various options for justifying military intervention in a similar vein to how the Ukrainian separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk were utilised in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, EU membership remains unlikely for these states, but their applications retain escalatory potential and as such Moldova and Georgia will remain the most at risk of a broadening of the war beyond Ukraine.

The second tier comprises of non-NATO EU states – namely Finland and Sweden. These states will remain the second-most at risk category given they are not covered by NATO Article 5 security guarantees, and despite their EU membership, it remains highly uncertain which countries, if any, would openly commit to defending them. Moscow has already issued thinly veiled threats to deter Helsinki and Stockholm’s potential NATO applications, threatening “military-technical” measures in response. This will likely continue taking the form of naval and aerial incursions in the Baltic rather than an overt military escalation, but if both Helsinki and Stockholm take clear steps towards NATO membership, this may trigger a Russian response.

The third tier comprises of ex-Communist NATO states bordering Russia and the conflict zone – namely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and to a lesser extent Romania and Poland. NATO Article 5 guarantees make this the least likely category to see major spill over from Ukraine, but would represent the most serious escalation scenario. The sizeable Russian minorities in Latvia and the proximity of both Poland and especially Romania to the fighting in Ukraine present flashpoints for potential spill over which could trigger an escalation. However, it remains our assessment that it is currently not in the Kremlin’s nor NATO’s interests to escalate the situation further. Nevertheless, the invasion of Ukraine is clearly designed to prevent NATO and EU expansion in Russia’s “near abroad”, and as such the first two tiers will remain more vulnerable to overt Russian military compellence or “military-technical” measures as the war in Ukraine continues.

National assessments of border delays are increasingly hard to rely upon as some national governments have ceased updating border post information pertaining to delays, or are severely at odds with eyewitness accounts and UNHCR reportage. Nevertheless, we include government-assessed waiting times on a country-by-country basis below for advisory purposes. A map of border posts with our estimates for crossing times also follows below. (Source: Sibylline)

04 Mar 22. Defence Secretary discusses shared security response in face of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ben Wallace visited Estonia and Denmark this week, meeting counterparts from Joint Expeditionary Force partner nations to provide plans for ongoing support for Ukraine. Ben Wallace with his counterparts on board the Danish frigate Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has met with Defence Ministers from the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) nations to provide plans for ongoing support for Ukraine against the invasion from President Putin’s forces.

The ministers discussed what increased measures can be brought forward to support Ukraine against Russia’s brutal assault and how the group will work together to promote European security, complementing NATO activity.

The Defence Secretary met with his counterpart Kalle Laanet in Tallinn, Estonia to discuss the crisis and the impact on wider security across Europe. Like the UK, Estonia has also sent a range of defensive and non-lethal aid to Ukraine to help the country defend itself, providing javelin anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft ammunition as well as food and medical equipment.

Minister Laanet awarded Ben Wallace with the Ministry of Defence Cross of Merit, First Class – the highest decoration conferred by the Ministry – for his commitment to European defence and security.

In Copenhagen, Denmark, the Defence Secretary met with a number of his counterparts from the JEF nations to see off Danish Frigate HDMS Niels Juhl. The vessel is providing a naval escort to support the deployment of Danish land forces in Estonia, where they serve alongside UK troops as part of the recently strengthened NATO enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) battlegroup. The Danish ship will be joined by Royal Navy frigate HMS Northumberland and Swedish corvette HSwMS Karlstad before accompanying a supply ship delivering specialist vehicles and equipment.

Ben Wallace also held a bilateral meeting with the Danish Defence Minister, Morten Bødskov and laid a wreath at the Danish National Memorial in Kastellet, central Copenhagen.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is an attack on our freedoms, our values and the security of Europe. He has sought to break our defensive alliances, which is why now, more than at any point in the history of the JEF, our partnership is so vital. We are united in our resolve across the JEF nations to support Ukraine. Our values are Ukraine’s values and we will continue to provide lethal and non-lethal aid, alongside sending additional forces to Estonia serving with our Danish allies.”

The UK is playing a leading role in supporting Ukraine, including providing defensive anti-tank weapons and non-lethal aid including helmets and medical supplies. Britain has also imposed comprehensive sanctions covering Russian elites, companies and financial institutions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In response to the crisis, the UK has also bolstered its contribution to NATO’s eFP in Estonia, where British and Danish troops have been deployed together alongside other NATO nations since 2018. The JEF supply mission will support this long-standing UK contribution.

The JEF is a coalition comprising of 10 nations working together to deliver forces at high readiness across a range of roles, complementing NATO and European security. Its members are Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK.

Defence Ministers from all ten countries met less than two weeks ago in Belvoir Castle, issuing a joint statement condemning Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine.

The JEF has carried out successful exercises in recent months, including Exercise Joint Protector 2021. In the coming months, militaries will be working together across its core areas of the North Atlantic, High North and Baltic Sea Region, with a particular focus on the upcoming command and control Exercise Joint Protector later in 2022, followed by the Live Exercise JEF Warrior in 2023. JEF will also conduct an exercise demonstrating freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea in a show of the group’s solidarity. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

04 Mar 22. Ukraine: Moscow will increase use of “hybrid warfare” tactics to undermine resistance during its ongoing encirclement of Kyiv. On 3 March, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warned via Twitter that alleged Moscow-linked hackers compromised local government and regional authorities’ websites to propagate disinformation and misinformation. These hackers reportedly published a message about the alleged “capitulation [of Ukrainian forces] and the signing of a peace treaty with Russia”. This alert was soon followed by a tweet published by the Ukrainian parliament warning that Russian forces occupying the Public Broadcaster News in Kherson were also utilising the facilities to spread disinformation about this topic. These incidents are consistent with the wave of hybrid warfare, including cyber attacks and misinformation, disinformation and malformation (MDM) tactics which the SBU’s late February advisory claimed Moscow was launching to weaken Ukrainian national unity and resistance to Russia’s invasion. Further such hybrid MDM and cyber campaigns are highly likely to emerge in the coming day, especially as the ongoing encirclement of Kyiv and Moscow’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant elevate public anxieties. Ukrainian government websites and communication-sector firms will remain the primary targets for such activity. (Source: Sibylline)

04 Mar 22. Netherlands: “Spillover” incidents to remain a notable concern amid Russia’s continued military operations in Ukraine. On 3 March, The Netherlands’ Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) disclosed that Dutch routers from individuals and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were hacked by Moscow-backed hacking group Sandworm earlier this year. While MIVD Director Jan Swillens claimed that it is unclear how many routers were affected, a preliminary analysis indicates it was likely “dozens”. This discovery is indicative of the US and UK cyber security agencies’ 23 February alert that Sandworm’s new malware strain, Cyclops Blink, is being used to compromised machines and launch malicious cyber attacks (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 24 February 2022). While the MIVD could not confirm whether these hacks were linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the timing of this incident indicates that these Dutch routers were likely used in the February distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks that preluded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 1400hrs GMT 24-02-2022). With Russia likely to launch additional cyber attacks in the coming days in support of its military operations in Ukraine, there will remain an elevated risk of Western businesses across all sectors being impacted by similar “spillover” incidents. (Source: Sibylline)

03 Mar 22. White House seeks new $10bn Ukraine fund with half for Pentagon. The White House has formally asked Congress for $32.5bn in pandemic relief and “critical assistance” to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, with $4.8bn for the Pentagon, as part of an updated supplemental spending request. Ukraine spending makes up $10bn, split between the Pentagon ― for troop deployments in Eastern Europe, covert support and to replace U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine ― and the State Department, for humanitarian, economic and military aid. The request unveiled Thursday marks a big jump from the Biden administration’s stated need of $6.4bn for Ukraine aid days ago.

Acting White House budget director Shalanda Young outlined the new request in a March 2 letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

“This request identifies an immediate need for $10.0bn in additional humanitarian, security, and economic assistance for Ukraine and Central European partners due to Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked invasion,” Young said in the letter, adding that she foresees additional needs over time.

Young also urged Congress to pass full-year appropriations bills for fiscal 2022, already five months overdue and needed to prevent a federal government shutdown by March 11. She echoed Pentagon leaders who have said the chaos of multiple stopgap spending bills hurts their planning and budgeting.

“The absence of full-year appropriations would continue to constrain Department of Defense (DOD) resources, readiness, and operations around the globe,” she said. “The impact on readiness and operations would constrain priority efforts in Europe and also leave the U.S. more vulnerable to other potential adversaries exploiting the global situation.”

The Ukraine part of the request breaks down as follows:

$1.8bn to cover troop deployments in support of U.S. European Command and NATO Response Forces, including funding transportation of personnel and equipment, temporary duty, special pay, flying hours, airlift, weapons system sustainment, medical support and other unit support costs.
$1.25bn for cybersecurity, intelligence and classified programs. “This funding supports operational surges across multiple national defense components” and includes “weapons system upgrades.”
$1.35bn to replenish stocks of U.S. military weapons for Ukraine, military education and training, and “immediate military assistance to Ukraine.”
$5bn for State Department humanitarian and economic aid efforts, with $500m in foreign military financing to support Ukraine and “top security requirements” of Eastern European NATO allies.
$1.2bn in presidential authority to draw further from U.S. military stocks with some broader authorities. To provide excess defense equipment, the White House wants a waiver of the requirement it notify Congress within 30-days and monetary limits as well as the authority to reprogram funds from fiscal 2022 and prior years for Ukraine.
$200m across the Commerce, Energy, Justice and Treasury departments for other efforts to target Russia and support Ukraine, including sanctions enforcement, Russia and U.S. supply chain analysis.

Some lawmakers have urged the Biden administration, which has already committed $1bn in security assistance to Ukraine, to move swiftly and with more resources to keep Ukrainian forces supplied. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is taking a darker turn, marked by fresh assaults on residential areas and and a refugee exodus that just hit 1 million people.

“Just briefed that 100% of the Defense Dept portion of the $6.4B aid package the Biden admin is requesting from Congress is to pay for the U.S. troops deploying to Europe and to replenish U.S. war stocks NOT new lethal aide for Ukraine,” Florida Rep. Michael Waltz, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee’s readiness subpanel, tweeted Wednesday. “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky needs more ammo NOW!”

The U.S. has delivered hundreds of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine for the first time over the last few days, including over 200 on Monday, NBC News was first to report.

The $22.5bn in COVID relief funding is a partisan sticking point. U.S. President Joe Biden said it’s needed to prepare for future variants, while three dozen Republican senators sent a letter to the White House questioning it.

Another dispute is that some Republicans have called for Ukraine aid to be considered separately from an annual appropriations package. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has said the FY22 spending package is the “quickest and most efficient way to” approve the aid.

“Nothing would make Putin happier than having Democrats and Republicans divided,” Schumer said Tuesday.

Whether Congress can move quickly will be a test of its resolve to address the Ukraine crisis, said the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Bradley Bowman, a former advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees.

“For members of Congress who’ve been critical of Biden’s slow response on Ukraine, now is an opportunity to walk the talk,” Bowman said in a tweet Thursday. “Let’s see how fast Congress can move.” (Source: Defense News)

03 Mar 22. Russian Invasion Stalled in Ukraine’s North, Progress in South. The Russian invasion prong aimed at the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv appears to be stalled, while fighting rages in Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city, a senior defense official said today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed more than 150,000 troops in 120 battalion tactical groups on the border of Ukraine since last fall, and about 90 percent of the forces have invaded, the official said.

In the southern part of the besieged country, news reports indicate the Russians have taken the city of Kherson, but U.S. officials cannot independently confirm this development. Russian forces did get closer to Mariupol, another city in Ukraine’s south, and are shelling the city.

The Russians are also shelling Kyiv and Kharkiv, with more rounds hitting civilian targets. ” have shown a willingness to hit civilian infrastructure on purpose,” the official said, citing the TV tower near Kyiv’s Babi Yar Memorial as an example.

“Obviously, are hitting residential areas. There’s no doubt about that,” he said. “The degree to which that is intentional — and intentionally precise, in that regard — is difficult for us to assess. But clearly it’s happening.”

United Nations officials said at least 227 civilians have been killed in the fighting, but they added that could be a massive undercount.

Across northern Ukraine, Russian forces appear to be largely stalled, the official said. “In Kyiv, the Russian forces remain north and northwest of the city,” he said. The capital city is under increasing bombardment.

In Kharkiv, officials assess that the Russian forces now appear to be just outside the city, very near the ring road, a bypass road around the city.

Ukrainian command and control nodes continue to function, and Ukraine’s air defenses remain effective, the official said. “They continue to be able to fly their airplanes and to employ air-defense assets,” the official said. “And, as of this morning, we’ve now counted more than 480 Russian missile launchers, again, of all of all sizes and stripes.”

The defense official said the United States cannot confirm that Russia is using cluster munitions or thermobaric fuel-air bombs against Ukraine.

The Russian movements may appear to be stalled, but there is still a lot of combat power available to Putin, the official said. Ukrainian fighting abilities have had an effect on the Russians, as have problems with logistics and sustainment, or they may be pausing to reassess their campaign and redirect their efforts, the official said.

The official also noted that the United States does not have aircraft over Ukraine nor boots on the ground there.

These troops have combined-arms capabilities, and, so far, Putin has not called up reserve forces from elsewhere in Russia, the official said. There are still thousands of troops in Russia and Belarus to draw upon. “But just because they’re drawing more on it every day, you should not take away from that that their combat power is being diminished to such a point inside Ukraine that they are they feel like they’re running out of juice,” he said. “We still assess that they have available to them in and outside Ukraine, the vast, vast majority of their total combat power.” (Source: US DoD)

03 Mar 22. Allies Will Protect, Defend Every Inch of NATO Territory, Says Secretary General. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited U.S. troops at Lask Airbase, Poland Monday. In a press conference after the visit, Stoltenberg said Russian President Vladimir Putin has shattered the peace in Europe.

“The Russian assault is totally unacceptable. And, it is enabled by Belarus,” he said.

“We welcome the leading role of Poland,” Stoltenberg said, noting that Poland has opened its border to hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the conflict.

NATO will always stand together, he said, mentioning that fighter jets from the United States are now flying alongside the Polish Air Force, keeping the skies over NATO nations safe 24/7.

French troops are arriving in Romania, as well, Stoltenberg noted.

NATO’s commitment to Article 5 is iron-clad, he said, referring to the alliance’s collective security defense.

Later in the day, Stoltenberg and U.S. Air Force Gen. Tod D. Wolters, the commander of U.S. European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, visited NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Tapa, Estonia. They were joined by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Wolters thanked Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas for hosting U.S., U.K. and other NATO forces in her nation.

The general noted that rigorous military training has enabled U.S. forces to be confident, responsive, resilient, competent and capable in whatever tasks are asked of them.

Addressing the U.S. troops, Wolters said: “We thank you for what you are doing today. The peace that you generate here is a deterrent to Russia. On the other side, you are protecting the sovereignty of our NATO nations and our territories. We’re in the business of generating peace, and that’s exactly what you’re doing.”

At a press conference with Johnson and Kallas, Stoltenberg said: “Our message to President Putin is: Stop the war. Pull out all your forces from Ukraine and engage in good faith in diplomatic efforts. The world stands with Ukraine.”

He also stressed that allies will protect and defend every inch of NATO territory, and thanked Johnson for doubling the U.K. troop presence in the NATO battlegroup. (Source: US DoD)

03 Mar 22. The ominous Russian assault ships lining up in the Black Sea that hint at attack on Odesa. Russia’s amphibious troops will force fear and doubt into the minds of Ukrainians – but can they risk ignoring it?

The days of amphibious troops wading ashore from landing craft and charging up heavily defended beaches are consigned to history.

These days, assaults from marine and other seaborne infantry usually start with helicopters suddenly appearing near their objectives, while huge amphibious landing ships, laden with tanks and other heavy weaponry, manoeuvre into civilian ports.

Or maybe they don’t.

Images emerged on Thursday morning of Russian amphibious assault ships in the Black Sea poised for a possible attack near Odesa, in a move that could open up a corridor to Kyiv from the south.

One Ivan Gren-class Landing Ship was spotted, thought to be the Pyotr Morgunov, and capable of carrying attack helicopters, 13 tanks or 36 infantry vehicles and 300 troops.

Also filmed loitering off the coast were two Alligator-class ships, each capable of holding surface-to-air missiles, 20 tanks and 300 troops, and five Ropucha-class vessels that could each launch 10 tanks and 190 troops ashore.

In total a force of nearly 3,000 troops and over 100 tanks could be put ashore.

The real power of an amphibious assault group loitering off a coast is the fear and doubt it forces into the minds of an adversary. Where will it land? What is it carrying? Can I take the risk of ignoring it?

Defenders cannot cover every possible landing point and, besides, the assault ships could be lurking a hundred miles further up the coast by dawn on Friday.

An amphibious force can sail early to demonstrate national will and capability, or be dispatched without fanfare if political understatement is desired.

Its posture can be adjusted according to diplomatic sensitivities, with other forces joining it as it moves inexorably towards an area of tension.

It does not require permission to transit international waters and can linger at sea; a constant, niggling problem for defending forces.

In a region such as the Black Sea, the prospect of an amphibious assault is a real headache for military commanders.

If landed unmolested, this force could strengthen the limited success Russian forces have achieved in Kherson in the south, or swing north to threaten Kyiv from a new flank.

The United Nations says 40 per cent of the world’s population live within 100 miles of the sea; the so-called littoral. This area contains many of the world’s capital cities and economic centres.

In short, the ability to adopt an ambiguous stance hundreds of miles out to sea whilst still being able to threaten these areas with combat power is highly desired by politicians and military commanders alike.

But coordinating military operations is complicated at the best of times. Doing it in a mix of land, sea and air is one reason why the Royal Navy and Royal Marines have reorganised.

The two new structures, called Littoral Response Groups and based around Arbroath-based 45 Commando Royal Marines and 40 Commando from Taunton, are designed to signal Britain’s new global military posture.

The Russian force, currently off the coast of Ukraine, shows how amphibious forces can have an effect with little military hardware on show.

Why do they need to land tanks and infantry near Odesa, risking a counter-attack from the Ukrainians, when they could deploy from the sanctuary of Russian-held Crimea?

Maybe they’re empty of kit and pose no threat whatsoever.

But, if you were a commander of the Ukrainian army watching as the assault ships off the coast approach the shore then turn and disappear over the horizon, would you take the risk of ignoring them? (Source: Daily Telegraph)

28 Feb 22. Ukraine conflict: EU to supply Kyiv with fighter aircraft. The European Union (EU) is to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with combat aircraft to help replace battlefield losses in the face of Russia’s renewed invasion of the country. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security, Josep Borrell, made the announcement on 27 February, saying that Kyiv had requested the aircraft as part of a wider package of military support from the EU and the West.

“We are going to provide even fighting jets,” Borrell said. “[Kyiv] has been asking us that they need the kind of fighting jets that the Ukrainian [Air Force] is able to operate. We know that some [EU] member states have these kind of planes, and the western borders of Ukraine are still open and several [of these] member states have a border with Ukraine.”

As noted by the EU foreign policy chief, Kyiv is requesting specifically those Soviet-era combat aircraft that the Ukrainian Air Force inherited in 1991 and still operates today. These are the MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum’ and Sukhoi Su-27 ‘Flanker’ multirole combat aircraft, and the Sukhoi Su-24 ‘Fencer’ and Su-25 ‘Frogfoot’ ground attack aircraft. Of these, EU member states could supply the MiG-29 and Su-25.

As noted by Janes World Air Forces, the Polish Air Force fields 21 single-seat and six twin-seat MiG-29s; the Bulgarian Air Force fields 11 single-seat and three twin-seat MiG-29s; while the Slovak Air Force fields nine single-seat and two twin-seat MiG-29 aircraft (although only a small number is thought to still be in an airworthy condition). The Bulgarian Air Force also fields six single-seat and two twin-seat Su-25s.

If these aircraft were to be donated, the Ukrainian Air Force could receive as many as 52 MiG-29s and eight Su-25s. Although not confirmed, it has been reported that the United States could look to backfill these donated aircraft with Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcons that are in service with Poland, and which are on order for Bulgaria and Slovakia.

While supplying aircraft would address the immediate problem of replacing attrition losses, Ukraine’s main airbases have been subjected to attack, with at least six MiG-29s destroyed on the ground at Ivano-Frankivsk Airport in the southwest of the country. However, as was common with Soviet-designed aircraft, both the MiG-29 and Su-25 operate from less than sterile airfields, with features such as air intake gates to prevent the ingestion of foreign object debris (FOD) and nosewheel protectors to prevent stones damaging the underfuselage. Also, the Ukrainian Air Force is known to have trained for off-site operations, and so could conceivably move its aircraft away from its airfields and on to the country’s roads. (Source: Janes)

01 Mar 22. Turkey’s stake in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Recent geopolitical and military multipolarity has given many of the world’s autocrats opportunities to build new alliances and break free of the US-led international rules-based order. Will Turkey seize this opportunity to forge its own path of expansion in the Middle East?

Recent geopolitical and military multipolarity has given many of the world’s autocrats opportunities to build new alliances and break free of the US-led international rules-based order.

Across Africa, former colonies have deepened economic ties with China and Russia, exchanging vast mineral wealth for loans and military assistance. Few examples of this strategic pivot have been more pertinent than when Mali’s military government hired Russian contracting firm Wagner Group for military assistance, breaking their traditional relationship with France and the Francophone world. The Wagner Group, in fact, shot to notoriety again this week, with reports that the group has been contracted to undertake high level killings in Ukraine.

In Europe, the Hungarian government, until recently, had sought closer and more fruitful relationships with the Kremlin despite being members of NATO, while the Solomon Islands has made their relationship with China clear to the world.

Geopolitical and military alliances have also proven shaky with more traditional allies of the United States over recent weeks.

At the recent UN Security Council vote condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates and India – countries many of whom believe to be close operating allies of the West – abstained from condemning Russia. Both abstentions do not come as a surprise, as India and Russia have had a close military and trade relationship for decades while Russia and the UAE are in the midst of a trade renaissance.

This renewed multipolarity between the US, China and Russia may pose significant threats to the international rules-based order.

Anne Applebaum writing in The Atlantic suggested that these burgeoning alliances, in which autocrats flirt with autocrats, have enabled the creation of shadow trade and governance organisations to rival the West. In fact, these organisations can be used to promote trade and military assistance to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and threats.

“Neither have decades of U.S. sanctions changed the behavior of the Iranian regime or the Venezuelan regime, despite their indisputable economic impact. Too often, sanctions are allowed to deteriorate over time; just as often, autocracies now help one another get around them,” Applebaum wrote.

Following years of instability in the United States and a haphazard withdrawal from Afghanistan, it appears that more than ever, autocrats around the world are weighing up their options for alliances. Perhaps the end of the US century is around the corner.

Writing in War on the Rocks this week, Selim Koru predicted that overlapping geopolitical and military interests between Turkey and Russia may bring an expansionist Ankara into Russia’s sphere of influence.

An analyst with the Economic Policy Research Foundation and Black Sea Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Koru’s prediction may appear unthinkable to students of history. Competing ambitions in the Black Sea, the Balkans and Caucasus, and dreams of an Orthodox and Slavic Constantinople have sparked centuries of conflict between the two nations.

However, a proclivity towards autocracy and the objective of regional expansion in an era defined by international law has built a bridge between the two nations.

In his analysis, Koru rejects the notion that Turkey is an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine – rather, a Russian victory in Ukraine would hasten a shift from the US-led rules-based order.

“In fact, the opposite appears more likely. If President Vladimir Putin wins a major military victory against Ukraine, and is able to weather the economic and diplomatic consequences, it will only accelerate Turkey’s move into a post-NATO stance,” Koru explained.

“The failure of NATO to stop Moscow’s irredentism will confirm Ankara’s beliefs about the waning relevance of the alliance and fuel its hopes for a new era in geopolitics.”

In Koru’s thesis, there are several overlapping objectives that would draw Ankara into the orbit of Moscow and even Beijing. First, there is an ideological affinity between Ankara, the Kremlin and Beijing which is reflected in autocratic governance and a rejection of the rules-based order. Secondly, all three nations have an expansionist foreign policy marked by a manifest destiny of a unified China, greater Russia and new Ottoman Empire. Third, a loss in Ukraine will further signal the end of a US-led world order.

“The Turkish right dreams of a revitalised Turkish sphere of influence, projecting power across three continents. Twenty years at the head of government has allowed them to infuse the country with this vision,” Koru continued.

“Rather, Putin’s triumph would have very exciting implications for some of the people at the presidential palace in Ankara. It would tell the Turkish right that they are on the cusp of a new era in global politics, one that they themselves have sought to bring about.”

Already, there are glimpses of Turkish foreign policy to this effect. Koru illustrates that not only has Turkey continued to build their close relationship with Azerbaijan but has maintained their military presence in northern Syria and Iraq giving them a large regional footprint.

Further, recent belligerence in the Middle East and North Africa has sown deep divisions between Turkey and their NATO allies. Koru explains that Turkey’s recent posturing has even seen the country cut off from cutting-edge military capabilities such as the F-35 program.

In response, Turkey purchased the S-400 defence system and has been in discussions with Russia for the purchase of Sukhoi fighter jets.

However, the irony that Russia sold their prized S-400 defence system to Turkey, who sold their prized armed Bayraktar drones to Ukraine who are now using these to destroy Russian military capabilities is not lost on anyone.

Indeed, a poor outcome in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict may put the brakes on a departure of rogue states from the international rules-based order. The Ukraine conflict has already taught the world many lessons.

One is that Russian military technology simply isn’t that good. Against Western technology – it’s downright terrible. Autocrats who have built their militaries with Russian technology may start to second guess their chances of winning in a conventional conflict. The second is that, like a schoolyard bully humbled by a smaller kid in a fight, Russia has lost face and thus its ability to coerce smaller countries and woo autocrats to join its gang. The world’s autocrats – especially in Ankara – are watching the outcome of this conflict closely. (Source: Defence Connect)

28 Feb 22. Turkey to ban Russian warships from entering Black Sea. The 1936 Montreux Convention enables Turkey to prevent naval ships from entering Black Sea during ‘war’. Turkey is set to implement parts of an international pact that would potentially ban Russian warships from entering the Black Sea through a key transit point. According to a Reuters report, Turkey said that the situation in Ukraine has turned into a ‘war’. This recognition will enable the country to prevent warships from accessing the Black Sea through Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits. In an interview with broadcaster CNN Turk, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said: “It is not a couple of air strikes now, the situation in Ukraine is officially a war. We will implement the Montreux Convention.” The 1936 Montreux Convention enables Turkey to prevent naval ships not based in Black Sea from entering during war or other specific circumstances. However, ships returning to their registered base will be exempted. Cavusoglu added in the interview: “There should not be any abuse of this exemption. Ships that declare returning to their bases and passing through the straits should not be involved in the war.” The move comes after Ukraine requested Turkey to block the transit of Russian war vessels to the Black Sea. Notably, at least six Russian warships and a submarine passed through Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits this month, Reuters reported. This is the second time in history that Turkey invoked the ‘state of war’ clause to ban warships in the Black Sea after World War II when it blocked German and Italian ships from using Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits. (Source: naval-technology.com)

01 Mar 22. Pentagon revisiting long-term US troop levels in Eastern Europe. The Pentagon is considering whether to add U.S. troops in Eastern European NATO-member countries on a long-term basis in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a senior Pentagon official told lawmakers Tuesday. The Biden administration’s $6.4bn request to Congress to respond to the Ukraine crisis includes $3.5bn for the Pentagon, to pay for operating costs associated with the surge to the current 100,000 U.S. troops in Europe or its waters and also to backfill weapons the U.S. military is sending from its stockpiles to Ukraine.

Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities Mara Karlin told the House Armed Services Committee that the Pentagon would be re-examining the Global Posture Review, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s most recent troop allocation plan.

“We recognize this dynamic situation now requires us to give it another fine-tooth look, to see what’s necessary to ensure that we’ve got deterrence of Russia and that we can absolutely 150% say that NATO is safe and secure,” Karlin said.

“So we’re looking at what sort of troop presence – whether it’s rotational or permanent – is necessary given this current security environment, both in the near term and frankly, and in the long term.”

The comment was in response to HASC’s top Republican, Rep. Mike Rogers, who said that prior to Russia’s invasion there was talk of permanently-stationed U.S. troops in Romania, and the Baltic countries. “Does the administration support this result that after this invasion, that we make that troop presence permanent in those Eastern European front countries,” Rogers asked.

Earlier this month, Rogers and Rep. Mike Turner, who is the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, sent a letter to Romanian President Klaus Iohannis encouraging the U.S. and Romanian governments to explore ways to create a permanent joint military base in Romania.

Eastern European NATO members have long sought heftier troop commitments from major alliance members to signal deterrence to Russia. There are already battlegroups in the three Baltic states, provided by European and Canadian forces, and Poland hosts a similar contingent under U.S. leadership. France announced last week it would send a new formation to Romania, comprised of 500 personnel and armored vehicles.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on Tuesday urged NATO to do more for the Baltics. Speaking alongside British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at Tapa military base in Estonia, she said the three small countries need better defense capabilities on land and in the air. The alliance should “move from air policing to air defense,” she said.

The Pentagon has in recent days mobilized some 14,000 of troops, along with F-35 strike fighters and Apache helicopters to Poland, Hungary and the Baltics. The U.S. troop presence had surged from 80,000, an uptick that U.S. President Joe Biden has stressed is meant to reinforce allies and not for getting involved in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

U.S. materiel pledged to Ukraine since September has included Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, grenade launchers, and more than 2,000 tons of ammunition including mortar and artillery rounds, small arms and machine guns, Karlin said.

In the last six months, Biden has authorized three tranches of aid under his drawdown authority, which included equipment from U.S. stockpiles, including a package worth $350m last week. The U.S. has committed $1bn in security assistance to Ukraine over the last year.

Rogers criticized the administration for moving too cautiously on the aid as Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s borders. He urged that NATO allies receive the surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile System and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System.

“It is now more important than ever to reinforce our NATO allies, especially those on the Eastern front,” Rogers said. Romania, Poland and the Baltic states need advanced integrated air defense assets, missile systems like HIMARS and ATACMS – and enhanced permanent U.S. troop presence – and they need it yesterday.”

Pressure on the administration came from both sides of the aisle. Emphasizing the unique level of bipartisan support for Ukraine and urgency of its fight, Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin pressed for the administration to be more forthcoming about its needs.

“I would just say you have an absolutely unique moment where the U.S. Congress has bipartisan agreement on giving you what you need, and we’re not getting an ask,” said Slotkin, who is a former Pentagon official. “Ask us for things and we will help you.”

Congress’s Democratic leaders have signaled that an omnibus funding bill for fiscal 2023, already five months overdue and needed to fund the U.S. federal government by March 11, will have to either take precedence or include the administration’s request for Ukraine aid.

Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., was among some of the Republicans who have pushed back in favor of immediate action, urging the White House to “get our leadership off the dime.”

“They’re doing nothing here in the House,” Lamborn said. “We could be sending this money to Ukraine, and people are literally dying and will die in the next week, needlessly.”

HASC Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., argued that while the House was taking time to get the legislation right, Biden was taking executive action to send Ukraine weapons and humanitarian aid.

“There is a ton of money that is flowing out of the United States of America right now to help the people of Ukraine,” Smith said, adding: “If nothing was happening, then I would be right there with you, saying we got to pass this yesterday.” (Source: Defense News)

02 Mar 22. As Russia bombards Ukrainian cities, Biden warns Putin ‘has no idea what’s coming.’

Biden closes U.S. airspace to Russian planes
Apple halts iPhone sales in Russia
Russia shows no signs of stopping its assault
Ukrainians put up fierce resistance

U.S. President Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin that the Russian leader “has no idea what’s coming”, as Western nations tightened an economic noose around Russia, whose invading forces bombarded Ukrainian cities and appeared poised for an advance on Kyiv.

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have fled the fighting since Putin ordered a full-scale invasion nearly a week ago, with a miles-long Russian military convoy north of Kyiv readying to advance on the capital.

Yet, Russia has failed to capture a Ukrainian single major city and Western analysts say Moscow appears to have fallen back on tactics which call for devastating shelling of built-up areas before entering them.

“While he may make gains on the battlefield – he will pay a continuing high price over the long run,” Biden said in his State of the Union address. Straying from the prepared text, Biden added “He has no idea what’s coming.” He did not elaborate.

U.S. lawmakers stood, applauded and roared, many of them waving Ukrainian flags and wearing the country’s blue and yellow colours, as Biden delivered his address to the chamber of the House of Representatives.

A senior U.S. defense official said on Tuesday the invading force’s advance on Kyiv has stalled due to logistics problems, including shortages of food and fuel, and some units appeared to have low morale.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters that it was unclear whether the convoy itself had stalled, but it was not making much progress. r

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Russia to stop bombarding civilians and resume talks.

“It’s necessary to at least stop bombing people, just stop the bombing and then sit down at the negotiating table,” he told Reuters and CNN in a joint interview in a heavily guarded government compound in Kyiv.

The United Nations General Assembly is set to reprimand Russia on Wednesday for invading Ukraine and demand that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, a move that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body.

By Tuesday evening nearly half the 193-member General Assembly had signed on as co-sponsors of a draft resolution ahead of a vote on Wednesday, diplomats said. The text “deplores” Russia’s “aggression against Ukraine.”

Putin ordered the “special military operation” last Thursday in a bid to disarm Ukraine, capture the “neo-Nazis” he says are running the country and crush its hopes of closer ties to the West.

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

Russia’s assault included strikes on Kyiv, though the heaviest bombardment so far appeared to be around Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv, near the border with Russia.

Dozens of residents there, including children, were killed when a Russian strategic bomber fired 16 guided missiles toward a residential area on Monday, Ukraine’s defence ministry said.

West of Kyiv, in the city of Zhytomyr, four people, including a child, were killed on Tuesday by a Russian cruise missile, a Ukrainian official said.

In Ukraine’s largely Russian-speaking city of Donetsk, in territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists, authorities said three civilians had been killed by Ukrainian shelling.

Reuters was not able to confirm any of the reports of casualties. The United Nations says at least 136 civilians have been killed in the invasion, but that the real number of people is likely much higher.

Vastly outmatched by Russia’s military, in terms of raw numbers and firepower, Ukraine’s own air force is still flying and its air defences are still deemed to be viable – a fact that is baffling military experts.

“The airspace is actively contested every day,” a senior U.S. defense official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

‘FREEZE AND SEIZE’

Biden announced a further ratcheting up of sanctions on Moscow, joining the European Union and Canada in banning Russian planes from U.S. airspace. He also said the Justice Department would seek to seize the yachts, luxury apartments and private jets of wealthy Russians with ties to Putin.

Following a call with Group of Seven officials, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States had agreed with G7 partners to convene a task force “to freeze and seize the assets of key Russian elites”.

Ukraine, a Western-leaning democratic country of 44 million people which is not a member of NATO, has called on the U.S.-led military alliance to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine – a request rejected by Washington, which fears stoking a direct conflict between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers.

Washington and its allies have instead sent weapons to Kyiv.

Several dozen Japanese men have answered a Ukrainian call for foreign volunteers to fight Russia’s invasion, according to a media report on Wednesday.

Isolating Russia diplomatically, the West’s main strategy is shutting off Russia’s economy from the global financial system, pushing international companies to halt sales, cut ties, and dump tens of billions of dollars’ worth of investments.

Exxon Mobil joined other major Western energy companies including British BP PLC and Shell in announcing it would quit oil-rich Russia over the invasion.

Apple Inc (AAPL.O) stopped sales of iPhones and other products in Russia, and was making changes to its Maps app to protect civilians in Ukraine. Alphabet Inc’s (GOOGL.O) Google dropped Russian state publishers from its news, and Ford Motor suspended operations in the country.

U.S. airplane manufacturer Boeing (BA.N) said it was suspending parts, maintenance and technical support for Russian airlines.

Russia on Tuesday placed temporary restrictions on foreigners seeking to exit Russia assets, meaning that billions of dollars worth of securities held by foreigners are at risk of being trapped. (Source: Reuters)

04 Mar 22. Russian forces seize huge Ukrainian nuclear plant, fire extinguished.

Summary
Companies
Intense fighting in area around huge nuclear plant
No signs of elevated radiation – U.S. Energy Sec
U.S and UK hit oligarchs with further sanctions

Russian forces seized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe after a building at the complex was set ablaze during intense fighting with Ukrainian defenders, Ukrainian authorities said on Friday.

Fears of a potential nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia plant had spread alarm across world capitals, before authorities said the fire in a building identified as a training centre, had been extinguished.

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said there was no indication of elevated radiation levels at the plant, which provides more than a fifth of total electricity generated in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian regional authority confirmed in a Facebook post that Russian forces had captured the plant and said personnel were monitoring the condition of power units to ensure they could operate safely.

Earlier, a video feed from the plant verified by Reuters showed shelling and smoke rising near a five-storey building at the plant compound.

The footage shot at night showed one building aflame, and a volley of incoming shells, before a large candescent ball lit up the sky, exploding beside a car park and sending smoke billowing across the compound.

“Europeans, please wake up. Tell your politicians – Russian troops are shooting at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine,” Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address.

Zelenskiy said Russian tanks had shot at the nuclear reactor plants, though there was no evidence cited that they had been hit.

The mayor of the nearby town of Energodar about 550 km (342 miles) southeast of Kyiv said fierce fighting and “continuous enemy shelling” had caused casualties in the area, without providing details.

Thousands of people are believed to have been killed or wounded and more than 1 million refugees have fled Ukraine since Russian President Vladimir Putin last Thursday launched the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.

Early reports of the incident at the power plant sent financial markets in Asia spiralling, with stocks tumbling and oil prices surging further.

“Markets are worried about nuclear fallout. The risk is that there is a miscalculation or over-reaction and the war prolongs,” said Vasu Menon, executive director of investment strategy at OCBC Bank.

Russia had already captured the defunct Chernobyl plant north of Kyiv, which spewed radioactive waste over much of Europe when it melted down in 1986. The Zaporizhzhia plant is a different and safer type, analysts said.

Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson both spoke with Zelenskiy to get an update on the situation at the plant.

“President Biden joined President Zelenskiy in urging Russia to cease its military activities in the area and allow firefighters and emergency responders to access the site,” the White House said.

Johnson said Russian forces must immediately quit their attack and agreed with Zelenskiy that a ceasefire was crucial.

“The prime minister said the reckless actions of President Putin could now directly threaten the safety of all of Europe,” Downing Street said.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said he was “deeply concerned” by the situation at the nuclear plant, and that Ukrainian authorities had assured the IAEA that “essential” equipment were unaffected.

FIGHTING RAGES, SANCTIONS MOUNT

On Thursday, Russia and Ukraine negotiators agreed to the need for humanitarian corridors to help civilians escape and to deliver medicines and food to the areas where fighting was the fiercest.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said a temporary halt to fighting in select locations was also possible.

The negotiators will meet again next week, the Belarusian state news agency Belta quoted Podolyak as saying.

Only one Ukrainian city, the southern port of Kherson, has fallen to Russian forces since the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, but Russian forces continue to surround and attack other cities.

Mariupol, the main port on the Sea of Azov, was surrounded and under heavy bombardment. Water and power was cut off, and officials say they cannot evacuate the wounded.

Video posted on Twitter from Mariupol, and verified by Reuters, showed parked vehicles burning while non-stop firing reverberated around surrounding apartment blocks.

The northeastern city of Kharkiv has been under attack since the start of the invasion, but defenders are holding out in the heavily shelled city.

While no major assault has been launched on Kyiv, the capital has been shelled, and Russian forces unleashed devastating firepower to break resistance in the outlying town of Borodyanka.

In Washington, a U.S. defence official said Russian troops were still 25 km (16 miles) from Kyiv city centre.

The United States and Britain announced sanctions on more Russian oligarchs on Thursday, following on from EU measures, as they ratcheted up the pressure on the Kremlin.

More companies including Alphabet Inc’s (GOOGL.O) Google, footwear giant Nike and Swedish home furnishing firm IKEA shut down or reduced operations in Russia as trade restrictions and supply constraints added to political pressure. read more

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” that is not designed to occupy territory but to topple the democratically elected government, destroy its neighbour’s military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists. It denies targeting civilians.

Moscow further tightened the flow of information, restricting access the BBC Russian service and Radio Liberty.

Russian human rights activist and former world chess champion Garry Kasparov called on Western countries to eject Russia from the global police agency Interpol, and impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

“Russia should be thrown back into the Stone Age to make sure that the oil and gas industry and any other sensitive industries that are vital for survival of the regime cannot function without Western technological support,” Kasparov said. (Source: Reuters)

03 Mar 22. Key Ukraine Takeaways.

Regional governments allied with the US will face rising pressure to reconcile competing strategic aims as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, with national interests likely to deter significant material support to Ukraine. This will reinforce trends of governments diversifying their international partnerships in light of long-term US regional disengagement.
Compliance issues and supply chain disruptions generated by international sanctions on Russia will present business disruptions for trade and tourism. Countries, such as Egypt and Lebanon, will face additional socio-economic strains, driven by their reliance on wheat imports and from Ukraine and Russia. Dwindling reserves and limited alternative supplies will heighten challenges to governments in mitigating rising food prices, likely to drive bouts of unrest in the coming months.
Sanctions are likely to reduce the flow of Russian tourists ahead the peak tourist season in the region. This will likely contract the expected sectoral growth, which risks postponing a pre-pandemic level recovery, particularly for countries like Turkey and Egypt.

Context

The escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions into a full-scale invasion on 24 February has highlighted the complex nature of relations between Moscow and regional governments, which hold security and economic relations with both Russia and the US. Over the past week, regional responses have been decidedly mixed, with Israel and Turkey condemning Russian actions, while Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, avoiding outright criticism. However, this balancing act will become increasingly difficult to sustain amid mounting pressure from Western governments in light of the Russian invasion, but also given the longstanding trend of US disengagement from the region which has pushed several regional actors to deepen security cooperation and ties with Moscow.

Conflict to challenge geopolitical relations with Russia across the MENA region

The conflict has highlighted the complexity of ties with Russia for countries in the region, most notably for Turkey and Israel. Amid ongoing confrontations, Ankara has identified an opportunity to improve its geopolitical standing and relations with Western partners. This includes potentially becoming a more important player in Europe’s energy market, presenting an alternative to Russian exports in light of the uncertainty regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline’s future.

However, in the longer-term, this could lead to heightened maritime hostilities with Russia, in particular following Ankara’s imposition of restrictions on the passage of warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits on 28 February. Such tensions would further delay supply chains and increase operating costs for businesses, including insurance premiums for cargo shipping. More broadly, Ukraine’s use of Turkish-manufactured drones and Israel’s support of a United Nations vote against Russia are also likely to elevate tensions with Moscow. Russian retaliation to any perceived overt hostility from Turkey and Israel in the coming weeks could take the form of increased hostilities in the Syrian and Libyan conflict theatres, manipulation of energy supplies and cyber attacks.

Similarly, Gulf states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while holding close ties with Western allies, also consider Russia an important regional partner via its considerable security presence and Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) membership. Consequently, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will continue to avoid a binding condemnation of Russian actions, with the UAE abstaining from a UN Security Council draft resolution vote against Russian “aggression” on 25 February.

In the coming month, Gulf counterparts will seek to maintain this position, as Iran’s ongoing nuclear negotiations continue to underpin interests in maintaining strong ties with Western countries to prioritise regional security interests. For instance, both the US and Russian votes in the United Nations Security Council on 28 February were essential for establishing an arms embargo and terror designation on the Yemen-based Houthi group, following their attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. As such, both Washington and Moscow remain crucial partners in the pursuit of Gulf security, though long-term trends such as the US’ regional disengagement will encourage Gulf states to reinforce partnerships with Russia and even China.

Dependency on wheat imports and tourism sector growth threat to impact socio-economic health

The high dependence on Russian and Ukrainian grain imports, particularly for countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Lebanon, elevates socio-economic vulnerabilities driven by expected disruptions to supply chains in the months ahead. Governments will likely be forced to tap in to reserve stocks in the near term, with Lebanon, for example possessing about a month’s worth of reserves. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has already caused delays to two shipments towards Beirut, with further disruptions likely as the conflict continues. With countries facing limited alternative supply options, a spike in food prices in the coming months will represent a trigger for widespread unrest.

This further coincides with political flashpoints such as upcoming elections and referendums this year in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia. A harsh security response involving water cannons and tear gas, among other measures, will generate significant bystander risks, particularly in the case of major protests in cities like Beirut, Amman and Tunis. Moreover, mounting socio-economic grievances, as during the 2011 Arab Spring, could drive popular demands on governments to undertake broader reforms, elevating threats to institutional stability.

Additionally, Western sanctions are likely to trigger knock-on effects on national tourism sectors across the MENA region. In particular, a reduced volume of tourists will impact countries like Egypt, Tunisia and the UAE, for which tourism represents a significant portion of GDP and employed workforce. A protracted conflict will generate significant disruptions to the overall flow of Russian and Ukrainian visitors ahead of the high season, disrupting sectoral hopes to return to pre-pandemic levels. Russian tourists have already started to cancel planned trips for this May and June in Turkey and Egyptian Red Sea locations have reported a decline in bookings, heightening the risk of a stunted growth.

As such, the added socio-economic strains triggered by the conflict are likely to elevate risks of domestic unrest and government instability, coupled with increased costs of living and unemployment. Moreover, it will further dampen investor confidence and sector-specific financing amid contracted revenues in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)

03 Mar 22. European Union: Draft EU communication suggests shift from Russian gas, increasing policy risks for the energy industry. On 3 March, a leaked EU communication draft scheduled to be released next week suggests the Commission now aims to significantly reduce the bloc’s reliance on Russian natural gas. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen called on member states on 1 March to speed up their transition to green energy and the draft also proposes a so-called “new energy compact” aiming to boost the EU’s transition to renewable sources. To address the supply concerns posed by European gas storages being at historically low levels, the draft also proposes that those should be filled at 80 percent of capacity by 30 September 2022, potentially introducing a legal requirement for minimum storage levels. The draft communication suggests that the EU’s regulatory framework will undergo significant changes in 2022 in relation to the bloc’s energy mix, increasing policy risks for energy companies but also creating new investment opportunities. (Source: Sibylline)

03 Mar 22. Georgia: EU membership bid represents flashpoint for Russian reaction. Georgia’s ruling party plans to formally apply to join the European Union on 3 March after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy applied for membership earlier this week. Tbilisi has worked towards NATO and EU membership since the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, though efforts have slowed under the ruling Georgian Dream party. Nevertheless, the move to apply represents another key escalation flashpoint, given Russian concerns over post-Soviet states’ integration into Western alliances and blocs. The EU is unlikely to accept Tbilisi’s accession in the short term and Georgia’s geographic isolation makes their bid less of a direct threat to Moscow than in Ukraine. However, Russia is likely to seek to deter or prevent any Georgian accession to the bloc in light of the European Parliament’s rapid approval of a motion supporting Ukraine’s membership. Towards this end, Russia could leverage sympathetic separatist forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to apply “military-technical” pressure on Tbilisi to deter progress towards EU accession. (Source: Sibylline)

03 Mar 22. Disrespect and dangerous rhetoric at root of Putin’s Ukrainian War. John R. Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography at the University of Birmingham.

“There are many different readings of this crisis. One that is overlooked in current accounts is to equate Putin’s action with teenage knife crime. Many teenage gang members are frightened and traumatised young men and often the most vulnerable are the most dangerous. Putin’s failure to overwhelm Ukraine means that he is now extremely vulnerable and at his most dangerous.”

Like perhaps most people living on this planet, I have been trying to understand what lies behind the current Ukrainian conflict. Yesterday, I spent the day visiting churches in Herefordshire’s Golden Valley. In the graveyard of the church at Ewyas Harold there is a headstone that warns the reader to ‘pass on, nor waste your time, on bad biography’. Perhaps bad biography is at the root of this new Russian war, but whose bad biography?

There are many different readings of this crisis. One that is overlooked in current accounts is to equate Putin’s action with teenage knife crime. Many teenage gang members are frightened and traumatised young men and often the most vulnerable are the most dangerous. Putin’s failure to overwhelm Ukraine means that he is now extremely vulnerable and at his most dangerous.

This link to Putin and knife crime might seem strange, but these young men often have a fragile sense of self-worth and consequently any perception that they have been disrespected will lie behind their motivation for a knife attack and even murder. In the world of teenage gangs, accepting disrespect is a sign of weakness. The difference between Putin and knife crime perhaps is only one based on the weapons available and the extent of the reach of any action.

Another reading of Putin comes from looking across the University of Birmingham’s campus at ‘Old Joe’, or the 100m tall Chamberlain Memorial Clock Tower, which dominates the Edgbaston campus. This tower is believed to have inspired J.R.R. Tolkien to imagine the Eye of Sauron that was ‘watchful and intent’ in his Dark Tower in the Lord of the Rings. Putin is watchful and intent from his safe position in the Kremlin.

One of the lessons that comes from the Lord of the Rings is that the people of the West, or in Tolkien’s words ‘the men of the West’, had to combine to utterly defeat Sauron. The same degree of unity between all nations of the free world is required to defeat Putin. The reaction against the illegal invasion of Ukraine is deepening resulting in Russia’s increasing political and economic isolation. This is to be welcomed, but all this is too late. A similar unified front should have been presented to Putin when he annexed Crimea in 2014.

In 2000, Putin experienced the first major crisis of his premiership. This was the sinking of the Kursk submarine. He handled this badly and from this he learnt that a key weapon was control over media discourse. Central to much of Putin’s rhetoric is a concern with his image and a sensitivity to any form of perceived disrespect. In Putin’s world he is always right.

It is important to consider the narratives that emerge around the Ukrainian crisis. To Russia this is a “special operation” that is not about occupying territory but about destroying military capabilities. Nevertheless, this illegal operation is similar to knife crime, because at its roots is a false perception that Putin and Russia have been disrespected. Putin’s perception of disrespect then leads to an illegal ‘military campaign’ in which 352 civilians, including 14 children, were killed in the first four days of the invasion. In addition, the lives of all Ukrainians have been disrupted with normal life ceasing.

I began this piece by trying to understand the current situation in Ukraine. There are two points to make. First, a unified front is required to defeat Putin and ensure that this type of illegal action never occurs again. This must be consistent and long-term showing no signs of weakness. Second, Putin failed in his handling of the Kursk disaster and in the Salisbury poisoning. The current Ukraine situation has further highlighted Putin’s limitations. Any plan for a rapid successful assault in which the might of the Russian army would overwhelm Ukraine has failed. On Sunday, Putin placed Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert. This highlights some degree of desperation or, in the world of teenage knife crime, the selection of a larger knife.

When I read or listen to accounts of Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine there is another narrative flowing though my mind. This is a narrative of co-ordinated murder organised by Putin and this led to the links that I have made between Putin and knife crime. Putin’s new Russian war should never be sanitised as something that is more akin to a military campaign; illegal killing of innocent civilians must always be defined for what it is – murder.

01 Mar 22. Ukrainian Resistance, Logistics Nightmares Plague Russian Invaders. Russian troops invading Ukraine have made some progress in the southern part of the country but are facing a logistics breakdown with vehicles running out of fuel and troops running out of food, a senior defense official said today.

It is day six of the invasion and in the northern part of the country the lines remain about where they were yesterday, the official said. “To the north of Kyiv, we are continuing to observe Ukrainians resisting Russian advances on the city.”

Russian troops are close enough to launch missiles into Kyiv and there are reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The attack on Kyiv seems to be the Russian main effort. There is a large column of Russian troops and vehicles headed toward the city that has not made appreciable movement over the past day. Part of this is the Ukrainian resistance, part is the logistics meltdown, the official said. The halt also could be “as a result of their own self-determined sort of pause in operations that they are possibly regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating.” The Russian attack on Kharkiv in Ukraine’s northeast continues and there have been reports of heavy fighting. “We still believe that the Russians are trying to encircle Kharkiv,” the official said.

Ukrainian officials said Russia used thermobaric weapons on the city. These bombs suck in the oxygen in the surrounding air to generate a powerful explosion. The official could not confirm the use of the weapon but did say the Russians have launcher systems that could be used for thermobaric weapons. The official also could not confirm Russia is using cluster bombs.

In the south, the Russian invaders made progress threatening Kerson and approaching Mariupol. The official said Kerson is still contested and that Russian forces are close enough to Mariupol to launch long-range fires at the city.

The official said there is no evidence that Belarussian troops have entered Ukraine.

The air domain is still contested, and Russia has now launched roughly 400 short-range and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles.

U.S. officials assess that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has command and control over his armed forces, and he is exercising it.

The Russian attack has created roughly 500,000 Ukrainian refugees, the official said.

There are indications the Russians are readjusting and changing their tactics, but “that said, there has been in the last six days evidence of a certain risk averse behavior by the Russian military,” the official said.

“Take the amphibious assault, for instance,” the official said. “They put those troops ashore, a good 70 kilometers away from Mariupol, because they knew Mariupol was going to be defended, and they could put them ashore in an uncontested environment. And they still haven’t reached Mariupol.”

U.S. officials are seeing the same sort of activity in terms of in the air domain. “There’s a certain risk averse behavior, they are not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots,” the official said. “And of course, we’re seeing that on the ground: The fairly slow and stodgy progress that they have made.”

Some Russian units are surrendering without a fight. Others are made up of inadequately trained conscripts who have never been in combat before. “Some of them, we believe, weren’t even told they were going to be in combat,” he said.

The official said the Russians are not risk averse to causing civilian casualties. (Source: US DoD)

02 Mar 22. Ukraine Puts Up Stiff, Courageous Resistance to Russian Incursion, Official Says. Effective and creative Ukrainian resistance, combined with poor Russian logistics and sustainment has hindered Russian invasion progress, said a senior defense official who held an on-background press briefing today.

There hasn’t been a lot of significant change on the ground in Ukraine since yesterday, the official said.

In terms of committed Russian combat power inside Ukraine, yesterday it was around 80%. Today it’s about 82%, which is still not an insignificant percentage of combat power, the official said.

In Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Kyiv, in northern Ukraine, there’s continued Ukrainian resistance to Russian advances, with an increase in Russian missile and artillery fire targeting infrastructure and media outlets, the official said.

Those cities are under assault, but with no appreciable movement by the Russians to take them. They are clearly meeting with resistance,” the official said.

In the south, the Russian invaders made progress, threatening Kerson and approaching Mariupol from the south, and they are also deploying forces from Donetsk in the east toward that area. The official said those cities are still contested.

“The airspace over Ukraine remains contested. The Russians had not achieved air superiority over the whole country. The Ukrainian air and missile defense capabilities remain intact and viable,” the official said.

Russia has now launched roughly 450 short-range and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles, since the start of the war, the official said.

“We think that there’s lots of reasons why not making the progress that they’ve wanted to make,” the official said. Besides, citing logistical and sustainment problems and resistance from the Ukrainians “we also believe that have had morale problems … so, there’s likely a bunch of factors here that are probably at play.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to effectively control his armed forces. The U.S. and NATO continue to supply Ukraine with munitions and other supplies, the official added. (Source: US DoD)

01 Mar 22. Why the complacent Russian air force has failed to gain control of Ukraine’s skies. Modern combat aircraft at Vladimir Putin’s disposal have been little in evidence, but fears grow of wave of indiscriminate attacks. The reasons why Russia has yet to gain control of the air have been a subject of debate since Moscow launched missile strikes against Ukrainian early warning radars last week. Given the formidable firepower of the roughly 300 modern combat aircraft the Russian Aerospace Forces have in the region, poised to attack, why have they been so little in evidence?

The view among many in the West may have been coloured by the unusual circumstances of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, where allied air forces met no serious opposition.

It is easy to forget that, in the words of Andy Netherwood, a former RAF pilot, “air is usually a contested domain just like land”.

Control of the air, vital if missions are to be launched on the ground without presenting easy targets to the enemy, is rarely easy, absolute or permanent. Even with considerable overmatch, it takes time and effort to achieve. Maintaining the advantage is equally hard because ground units learn from past clashes and adjust their tactics.

“Russia has been hindered by complacent and arrogant planning in the air domain as much as in the land,” Mr Netherwood said. “The Russian air force has very little recent combat experience other than Syria. You don’t really know how good an air force is until it has to fight a war…[it is] not impressing.”

There have been Ukrainian losses, of course. It was announced on Tuesday morning that Colonel Oleksandr “Grey Wolf” Oksanchenko, Ukraine’s air force display pilot from 2013 to 2018, was killed when his jet was shot down over Kyiv on Friday night.

Technical reasons may also be contributing to the relatively clear skies. The Russian air force has much less experience of operating with precision-guided munitions (PGM), according to Justin Bronk, an air power specialist at the Royal United Services Institute.

In a new paper, The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force, Mr Bronk wrote: “During combat operations over Syria, only the Su-34 fleet has regularly made use of PGMs, and even these specialist strike aircraft have regularly resorted to unguided bomb and rocket attacks.

“This not only indicates a very limited familiarity with PGMs among most Russian fighter crews but also reinforces the widely accepted theory that the Russian air-delivered PGM stockpile is very limited.”

Su-34 bombers, little sighted in the war up to now, were seen in action over Kharkiv on Monday in a move described by experts as a more aggressive use of the air force.

Satellite imagery from commercial satellite company Planet showed that multiple rockets landed at the Ozerne air base, 100km west of Kyiv, between Feb 22 and Feb 27. However, although at least six strike points can be seen, none are on the main runway or likely to have degraded the ability of the Ukrainian air force to continue using the site.

Russian jets are also thought to lack targeting pods used to spot and identify targets, meaning the ability to correctly identify and support ground forces when they are fighting Ukrainian units is limited. Firing unguided munitions in such situations would increase the risk of hitting their own troops as well as making civilian casualties far more likely.

That means the air force leadership may be “reluctant to commit the bulk of their potential striking power against Ukrainian troops before political approval is granted to employ unguided munitions to bombard Ukrainian-held urban areas”, Mr Bronk said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

28 Feb 22. Ukraine conflict: Forces face recognition and tracking challenges. The Russian and Ukrainian militaries engaged in the conflict in Ukraine have several difficulties to overcome around force recognition and tracking, and the so-called ‘fog of war’ may hang heavy.

Unverified reports state that the Russian Navy shot down a Russian aircraft over the Black Sea. Given the use of identification friend-or-foe (IFF) transponders, it should be a relatively straightforward task to avoid such incidents. In the land domain, differentiating between friend-or-foe is a significantly more demanding task. Much of the materiel fielded by the belligerents is of the same type or has a common design lineage. Save for country-specific modifications and markings, it can be challenging to tell the equipment apart, especially at the ranges that engagements with modern weapon systems often take place.

Video footage and imagery emerging from Ukraine has shown attempts to simplify recognition, both on soldiers and vehicles, such as spray-painted markings on Russian vehicles and simple fluorescent armbands worn by Ukrainian forces.

In addition to these rudimentary efforts, however, discipline in following established tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) may play a significant role in limiting incidents of fratricide. For example, armoured vehicles manoeuvring near the front lines are likely to keep barrels pointed in the direction of threat in order to signal their intentions. At the tactical level, units will have their own standard operating procedures for marking their positions, particularly of lead troops and the extreme flanks.

While there is no fool-proof means of differentiating a friend from a foe, the use of command-and-control (C2) systems that deliver force tracking, situational awareness, and other capabilities can bring significant benefits, both in limiting ‘friendly fire’ incidents and enhancing combat effectiveness.

The extent to which C2 systems have been fielded with Ukrainian forces and their effectiveness cannot be ascertained yet. Forces have reportedly been equipped with an indigenous C2 capability that was developed by UA Defense. The Hermes-C2 system utilises a map-based display on a tablet computer with a touchscreen interface. It is intended to deliver situational awareness (SA)and features red and blue force tracking capabilities, a range of battle management tools – such as route planning and the ability to exchange sensor and other data – and chat communications.

The system has been observed in use during large-scale exercises in 2020, where it was integrated on armoured vehicles and networked with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and artillery elements. Target co-ordinates were passed from the UAV to the Hermes-C2 system and onwards to the artillery fire-control system, where the ballistic calculations were made.

At the tactical level, a number of C2 systems have been developed for the Russian military. The Strelets system forms part of the wider Ratnik soldier system. Two versions of the system have been identified: one for use by commanders that features a digital map interface on a touchscreen personal digital assistant (PDA), which displays force tracking data among other information; the other is intended for infantry personnel with a digital compass instead of the map. The C2 functions include tactical chat and the ability to network with different levels of command and other components, sharing a range of data, such as targeting information and imagery. It is unclear how widely systems have been fielded under the Ratnik programme.

The UNKV-E system has also been developed for dismounted applications, with three devices – individual soldier, platoon commander, and company commander – linked by VHF and wireless communications, all have GPS/GLONASS. The individual soldier version is a handheld device that is limited to text and voice communications. The platoon commander device is also handheld with a small screen for situational awareness, while the company commander has a ruggedised tablet.

Also at the tactical level, the ASUV TZ command system is intended for use from the platoon level upwards. It includes a digital mapping system that can display the tactical picture and a range of battle management functions. In its armoured fighting vehicle configuration, the ASUV TZ has been identified as fitted on BTR-80 and -90, BMP-2 and -3, and MT-LBU vehicles.

The C2 systems in service in Ukraine will be operating in demanding conditions. Ukraine and Russia are known to be equipped with advanced electronic warfare (EW) systems that can jam GPS and both radio frequency (RF) and satellite communications, which are essential for C2 systems to operate effectively. Through these jamming systems, both militaries can potentially create a so-called C2 denied or degraded environment (C2D2E). Furthermore, any fighting in built-up areas can significantly impact the efficacy of C2 systems, especially when operating with older radios or relying on satellite communications alone.

While robustness can be built into systems to ensure that they offer the most basic force tracking and other C2 functions in difficult conditions – such as through smart management of bandwidth and using high frequency (HF) communications, which offers more resilience against jamming – it is likely that much of the C2 on the ground will be achieved via voice communications. Whether that be via radio, satcom, or cellular phone, indeed for as long as cellular networks are available the latter may prove to offer an effective – if rudimentary – form of force tracking and text ‘chat’ through built-in commercial features and apps. (Source: Janes)

01 Mar 22. Ukraine conflict: Russia introduces Su-34 into fray. Russian Sukhoi Su-34 ‘Fullback’ strike aircraft were seen operating over Ukraine for the first time on 28 February. Footage of at least one of the jets overflying the Kharkiv region was posted online, with the person taking the footage noting that at least seven such aircraft had already flown overhead by the time he began filming. The Su-34 is a long-range strike aircraft, that was designed as a replacement for the Soviet-era Su-24 ‘Fencer’ in Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) service. As noted by Janes All the World’s Aircraft: Development & Production , the Su-34 is equipped with 12 hardpoints for the carriage of a range of air-to-surface and air-to-air weaponry. Unguided, or ‘dumb’, weapons carried by the type comprise FAB-500T, BETAB-500ShP, ODAB-500PM, OFAB-250-270, ODAB-100-120, P-50T bombs, as well as S-8OM, S-8BM, S-13OF, S-8KOM, and S-25OFM-PU rockets. Guided, or ‘smart’, weapons comprise R-27R1 (ER1), R-27T1 (ET1), R-73E and RVV-AE air-to-air missiles; Kh-59ME, Kh-31A, Kh-31P, Kh-29T (TE), Kh-29L, and S-25LD air-to-surface missiles; KAB-500Kr, KAB-500L, KAB-1500KR, KAB-1500L LGBs; and RBK-500 SPBE-D cluster bombs. The Su-34 is also equipped with one 30 mm GSh-301 gun with 150 rounds. According to Janes World Air Forces, the VKS has at least 125 Su-34s currently in service, with the type flown operationally in Russia (it is also used in Syria, as well as by developmental test units) by the 277th Bomber Aviation Regiment at Komsomolsk-Khurba in the Far East, the 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment at Morozovsk in the Rostov region near Ukraine, and the 47th Independent Mixed Aviation Regiment at Voronezh-Baltimor, also near Ukraine. (Source: Janes)

28 Feb 22. Ukraine conflict: Ukrainian government opens accounts for donations. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) opened a special account for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on 27 February and opened deposits to the international community.

“A direct transfer of funds to help the army with a payment card is now available on the NBU’s website. We thank the team of this state-owned bank and everyone who is willing to help the Ukrainian army,” said NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko. Deposits can be made via any bank card through the NBU’s website, or through remittances in a variety of currencies through arrangements with banks located in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Poland, Switzerland, and the United States. According to Shevchenko, the NBU has also simplified its anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) procedures so that banks can easily accept cash and credit this money to the special account of the Ukrainian army, as well as to that of the armed forces. (Source: Janes)

28 Feb 22. DOD: In Ukraine, Every Lost Soul is on Putin.  Since Russian military forces illegally invaded Ukraine last week, Ukrainian civilians and soldiers, as well as Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict. Estimates are in the thousands.

Every one of those deaths is directly attributable to Russian president Vladimir Putin, said Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby.

“He’s perpetrating violence on a neighboring nation state that presented no threat to him, and innocent lives are being … taken. And we’ve seen casualties … we know there’s casualties on both sides of this conflict. All of this … was avoidable,” Kirby said during a briefing today at the Pentagon. “This is a war of choice … and all the casualties are on his hands — all the blood is on Mr. Putin’s hands.”

In furtherance of Russia’s illegal war, a convoy of Russian military forces, by some estimates as long as 17 miles, continues to move towards the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv.

“I think the main conclusion we can draw … is that … they continue to want to move on Kyiv, to capture Kyiv, to take Kyiv,” Kirby said. “Although we don’t know everything about this convoy, it is certainly in keeping with what we believe to be their intent, with respect to the capital city.”

How the Russians plan to capture Kyiv once the convoy reaches its destination, Kirby said, is unknown right now.

“Whether it’s encirclement, or bombardment, or street-to-street fighting, I mean, I just don’t think we have that level of dexterity now to give you that kind of detail in terms of Russian planning,” he said.

The Ukrainian military has so far provided a “stiff and determined resistance” in defense of their country which has appeared to slow Russian plans there, Kirby said.

And the U.S. military, along with other nations have continued to provide security assistance packages to Ukraine to help them defend their country.

On Saturday, Kirby said President Biden had authorized an additional $350m of military assistance to Ukraine from Defense Department inventories. Included there are anti-armor, small arms and various munitions, body armor and other related equipment.

“We know that the Ukrainian armed forces are using a lot of the systems and equipment that had been provided to them not just by the United States, but by other nations,” Kirby said. “The Ukrainians have been effective at using these weapons and these systems, and … at resisting and pushing back Russian forces.”

Kirby said while it’s not possible to know exactly what the Russian war plan is for Ukraine, it’s believed that their plans may have been delayed so far by a few days as a result of unexpected resistance by the Ukrainian military. Nevertheless, he said, he recommends caution right now in assessing the situation in Ukraine, especially when it relates to drawing conclusions about Russian military plans, efforts or capabilities, just days into an illegal war.

“This is a dynamic situation. It’s war, and war can be unpredictable,” he said. “And I don’t think that anybody, including, perhaps especially Ukrainians, are sniffing at Russian capabilities that they’re facing.” (Source: US DoD)

28 Feb 22. How are the Ukrainian military holding off Russian advances?

Many onlookers feel the Kremlin thought the initial military action would be enough to stun Ukraine into submission.

Many thought once the invasion began, the military of Ukraine would be swept away by the might of the Russian force.

Kyiv would fall and Ukraine would quickly submit to the will of Moscow, but that hasn’t happened.

In fact, in some key areas, the Ukrainian military appears, at his stage at least, to be outperforming the Russian military, leaving some to question how Ukraine is doing this?

They seem to especially outperform Russian forces when it comes to resupplying troops with fuel, ammunition and other supplies.

The improvement looks to have happened because of failures in these very areas when Russian forces annexed Crimea.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Glen Grant, now with Baltic Security Foundation, said: “In 2014, they (the Ukraine military) really were terrible.

“Most of the structures that they had simply did not have sufficient people in the structure to actually do fighting and logistics.

“There has been a development since then and people have understood things and there’s been a better organisation of logistics across the whole force and, this time, they actually seem to be getting it right.”

Many onlookers feel the Kremlin has miscalculated, believing that the initial military action would be enough to stun Ukraine into submission and now that has not happened the supply chain issues are shining through.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey believes that the Ukrainians have taken the Russians by surprise.

He also thinks the Russians have shown “extraordinary hubris” in their plan, especially in thinking the Ukrainian people would be easily overwhelmed and welcome Russia as a liberator.

Lt Col (Retd) Grant added: “So they (Russia) are driving across the border into war, stoked up for 24/48 hours, no more, and not being able to drive very far.

“Which is one of the reasons why, if you actually look at down south when they came out of Crimea, they’ve actually only gone 50km left and right.

“I’m sitting there thinking ‘why is this, why is this?’, well I know now, they haven’t got enough fuel to go any further.”

He adds: “They are stopping and asking people in villages, ‘please, where can I get fuel’, which is bizarre.”

The British training, primarily from Operation Orbital, has been praised for helping Ukraine’s military improve operationally.

Op Orbital is the UK’s military training mission, brought in after the annexation of Crimea to try to modernise the Ukrainian military. (Source: forces.net)

28 Feb 22. Putin’s Ukrainian war, sanctions, and the tragedy of the Russian people. John R. Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography at the University of Birmingham.

“These sanctions are nowhere near the level needed to deter this type of illegal military action. The sanctions that are imposed must impact on every Russian citizen. The level and degree of impact required would be a tragedy for the Russian people. The question is what sanctions are available and what strategy should be adopted?”

Russia’s Ukrainian military campaign has many origins. One of these is Putin’s on-going failure to govern Russia to create better outcomes for those living and working in Russia. Another reflects the failure of all governments, including all European states, the US and China, to impose effective sanctions on Russia in response to the illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014, and in response to the Salisbury 2018 Novichok poisoning.

Vladimir Putin is concerned that Russia is no longer treated as a superpower. His actions in Ukraine are one response to ensure that Russia is taken seriously, and the interests of the Russian people are no longer ignored. It is important to distinguish between Putin’s interests and the interests of the Russian people. These are two very different things.

Putin wants to ensure that he creates a legacy as the great leader of the Russian people who was solely responsible for ensuring that Russia reclaimed superpower status. For the Russian people the key issue is about everyday living conditions. There is an important point here in that Putin’s concern with Russia’s standing in international affairs deflects investment away from activities that would produce better outcomes for all Russian citizens.

It is essential that there is a coordinated response by all nations to Russia’s invasion of an independent nation. There must be an immediate cross-cutting response that impacts on the lives of all Russians. This will be a tragedy for the Russian people, but this is occurring at a time when Ukrainians are being slaughtered by the Russian military. This response needs to be extreme as it must represent a warning both to Russia, and other countries, over any actions that result in the illegal annexation of territory.

The current response is to impose sanctions on Russian banks and oligarchs. Russia has also been stripped of the honour of hosting the 2022 Champions League final. However, these sanctions are nowhere near the level needed to deter this type of illegal military action. The sanctions that are imposed must impact on every Russian citizen. The level and degree of impact required would be a tragedy for the Russian people. The question is what sanctions are available and what strategy should be adopted?

The strategy should be to develop a structured approach, but it is an approach that needs to be coordinated. Sanctions should include business, finance, educational, sporting, cultural, and travel activities.

It is not enough, for example, to shift the location of the Champions League final. No Russian citizen should be permitted to participate in any international sporting event. By this I mean ‘no Russian’. It is not acceptable to permit Russians to participate under an alternative arrangement. Thus, no Russian could participate at any Olympics, and this would include representing the Russian Olympic Committee. This exclusion would be permanent until Ukraine becomes a free and completely independent state. This would be a tragedy for all those Russians who have devoted their lives to training to compete in all types of sports. Nevertheless, it must be recognised that an illegal military action by a state has consequences for all citizens of that state. The same exclusion must also be imposed on all international activities in which Russian citizens participate including all cultural activities.

Money matters and foreign earnings are important for the Russian economy. Thus, effective sanctions are required that would disrupt and stop these flows. Countries must agree to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas with immediate sanctions imposed on Russia’s energy sector. These sanctions must include all major Russian exports including wheat. It must be appreciated that such sanctions would impact directly on the Russian people, but they would also have extreme negative impacts on the global economy. This level of sanction would result in rapid energy and food price inflation, including energy shortages across Europe and elsewhere. Any attempt to reduce the impacts on the global economy would, however, ultimately encourage further conflict to occur either led by Russia or other countries.

For sanctions to be effective they must have a major negative impact on the everyday lives of all Russian citizens. There is a triple tragedy here. First, we need always to remember that innocent Ukrainians are being killed by the activities of Russian soldiers. Second, there is the tragedy of the Russian people as effective sanctions must disrupt their everyday lives. Third, there is the tragedy that will come from imposing sanctions on Russia including increased energy and food poverty in other counties. Nevertheless, without effective sanctions there will be other military annexations made by Russia and other countries.

01 Mar 22. Ukraine’s drone strikes reveal Russian planning failures, expert says. Amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a small portion of the defenders’ arsenal has had a disproportionate effect — Ukraine’s handful of Bayraktar TB2 armed drones.

Videos of their exploits have millions of views. They’ve destroyed surface-to-air missile launchers and logistics trains. They’ve inspired songs and are a common refrain in videos taunting the Russian invaders.

Despite their small number — around 20, according to pre-war comments made to Al-Monitor — the drones have been heavily utilized, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia, on the other hand, claims it has shot down some of the drones.

According to Stijin Mitzer, an open-source intelligence analyst, the small Turkish-made drones have destroyed at least 32 Russian vehicles since war broke out last week, though it’s impossible to independently confirm the total number of vehicles they’ve destroyed.

An expert on Russian drone warfare, Samuel Bendett of the CNA think tank, explained to Military Times that even the drones’ limited successes show that Russia is failing to implement its own air defense strategies. He added that Russia studied the lessons learned by Armenia in last year’s war with Azerbaijan, which saw the latter nation decimate Armenian positions and vehicles with Bayraktar drones and loitering munitions.

Perhaps the “biggest lesson” of that conflict, Bendett said, was that slow, low flying drones like the Bayraktar are effective against outdated air defense systems. Russian planners were confident that their force structure, which prioritizes modernized, layered air defense, would be able to prevent such a massacre — but “we’re not seeing…what Russians have advertised,” Bendett said.

Russian units are usually arrayed in battalion tactical groups, BTGs, with layered air defense and anti-drone capacity, said Bendett. But the forward elements of Russian forces have failed to operate as BTGs in Ukraine, frequently leaving behind their air defense assets “in inexplicable fashion,” he added.

“[In Ukraine], Russia doesn’t seem to display the very tactics, techniques and procedures that it’s practiced for years and sought to perfect in Syria…[to provide] adequate cover to its ground forces,” he said.

Bendett also pointed towards “the mythology of the Bayraktar” and how “Ukraine is winning the information war.”

“For all the Russian military talk about winning information war, they seem to be losing, and the videos of Bayraktars striking what appears to be Russian targets is feeding into that [Ukrainian] information campaign,” he said.

Bendett believes that the days of Bayraktar strikes are limited, though, should Russia reorganize its advance.

“If the Russian military reorganizes — if it sends in the BTGs, if it sends in adequate air defense capability, if it sends in its [electronic warfare] forces…it would become increasingly more difficult for Bayraktars to operate in an uncontested fashion,” said the drone expert. “They were definitely aware of the threat. They definitely practiced against the threat.”

And even should the Russians recover and counter the drone threat, he noted, “they were supposed to eliminate a lot of Ukrainian air defense capability from the…first hours of the campaign.” That includes the air bases where the drones are stored, fueled and equipped.

A portion of that responsibility, according to other experts and U.S. officials who spoke with Reuters, lies with the conspicuous absence of the Russian Air Force over the skies of Ukraine.

“The fact that there may be surviving [Bayraktars] somewhere is an embarrassment [to Russia],” said Bendett. “Clearly.” (Source: Army Times)

01 Mar 22. UK imposes sanctions on Belarus for its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Foreign Secretary launched a first tranche of sanctions against Belarusian individuals and organisations in response to Belarus’ role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

first tranche of sanctions implemented against Belarus for its role supporting Russia’s military invasion
Belarusian Chief of the General Staff and 3 other deputy defence ministers sanctioned
two military enterprises sanctioned

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has today (Tuesday 1 March) launched a first tranche of sanctions against Belarusian individuals and organisations in response to the role the country is playing in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including facilitating the invasion from within its borders.

Four senior defence officials and 2 military enterprises have been sanctioned with immediate effect under the UK’s Russia sanctions regime.

Those sanctioned include the Belarus Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Minister of Defence, Major General Victor Gulevich. Gulevich is responsible for directing the actions of the Belarusian armed forces, which have supported and enabled the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He has directed joint military exercises with Russia, and consented to the deployment of Russian troops along the border of Belarus with Ukraine, which has directly contributed to Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine, including from positions in Belarus.

The other sanctioned individuals are:

Major General Andrei Burdyko, Deputy Minister of Defence for Logistics and Chief of Logistics of the Belarusian Armed Forces
Deputy Minister of Defence for Armament and Chief of Armament of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Major General Sergei Simonenko
Deputy Minister of Defence, Major General Andrey Zhuk

Also sanctioned are state enterprises JSC 558 Aircraft Repair Plant and JSC Integral, a military semi-conductor manufacturer. JSC 558 provides maintenance and servicing to military aircraft at Baranovichi air base, from which Russian aircraft operated as part of the invasion.

Individuals will be unable to travel to the UK and any UK-based assets will be frozen.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We are inflicting economic pain on Putin and those closest to him. We will not rest until Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is restored.

The Lukashenko regime actively aids and abets Russia’s illegal invasion and will be made to feel the economic consequences for its support for Putin. There will be nowhere to hide. Nothing – and no one – is off the table.”

These sanctions follow 2 pieces of legislation laid by the Foreign Secretary yesterday (Monday 28 February) to prevent designated Russian banks from being able to transact any payments in sterling and have correspondent banking relationships with UK-based banks, and to ban a range of exports critical to the maintenance and development of Russia’s military-industrial complex and strategic interests.

The first will be used immediately to designate Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, in effect cutting the bank out of the UK’s financial markets. The second, which is being enacted in close alignment with the US, EU and other partners, will collectively cut off much of Russia’s high-tech imports, constraining Russia’s military-industrial and technological capabilities for years to come.

Background

The individuals and entities have been designated under the UK’s Russia sanctions regime for their role in destabilising Ukraine and undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
The UK has already imposed sanctions on more than 100 people and organisations in response to the fraudulent elections in Belarus and the litany of abhorrent acts and human rights violations that the Lukashenko regime continues to commit. Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

28 Feb 22. More US troops could head to Europe amid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Pentagon says. The 14,000 U.S. troops activated in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may not be the last, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

The U.S. has activated thousands of troops to reassure allies since early this month, including a as-yet-undetermined number who will deploy in support of the NATO Response Force, activated for the first time in its history on Thursday.

“I would not rule out, in the incoming days, additional re-positioning in Europe as appropriate,” Kirby said.

In addition to 80,000 permanently stationed forces, the U.S. has committed 12,000 stateside troops ― and another 2,000 based in Germany, Italy and Greece ― to be stationed in NATO partner nations along Russia’s western border, along with attack helicopters and strike fighter jets.

The latest group left Fort Stewart, Georgia, on Sunday, with members of 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division. NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe announced Thursday that the U.S. had committed 7,000 to the NATO Response Force, who would deploy to Germany but possibly disperse to other countries later on.

The Pentagon has since said that it can’t say whether all 7,000 will be committed to NATO versus unilateral deployments.

“I don’t have any updates for you on the NATO Response Force or, or the troops that we have contributed,” Kirby said.

There are roughly between 3,000 and 5,000 more stateside troops on heightened alert, Kirby told Military Times on Friday.

“There’s no additional requests for ally support that I’m tracking,” he said Monday.

By and large, the troops activated in Europe are spending their time training with their host nations’ forces. In Poland, where 4,700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division are on the ground, some preparations have been made to assist Americans fleeing Ukraine into Poland.

“Over the last 24 hours, they’ve maybe seen a handful of Americans who were looking for a little bit of assistance,” a senior defense official told reporters Monday. “And by a little bit, I mean, some food, some water, a chance to sit down, internet capability to make to make some flight plans, that kind of thing.”

While U.S. troops are staying out of the fighting, the U.S. government has continued to funnel aid into Ukraine.

“It continues to arrive and continues to get to them, including in just the last day or so,” the official said. (Source: Army Times)

Bendett also pointed towards “the mythology of the Bayraktar” and how “Ukraine is winning the information war.”

Bendett believes that the days of Bayraktar strikes are limited, though, should Russia reorganize its advance.

A portion of that responsibility, according to other experts and U.S. officials who spoke with Reuters, lies with the conspicuous absence of the Russian Air Force over the skies of Ukraine.

“The fact that there may be surviving [Bayraktars] somewhere is an embarrassment [to Russia],” said Bendett. “Clearly.” (Source: Army Times)

01 Mar 22. UK imposes sanctions on Belarus for its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Foreign Secretary launched a first tranche of sanctions against Belarusian individuals and organisations in response to Belarus’ role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

first tranche of sanctions implemented against Belarus for its role supporting Russia’s military invasion
Belarusian Chief of the General Staff and 3 other deputy defence ministers sanctioned
two military enterprises sanctioned

Four senior defence officials and 2 military enterprises have been sanctioned with immediate effect under the UK’s Russia sanctions regime.

The other sanctioned individuals are:

Major General Andrei Burdyko, Deputy Minister of Defence for Logistics and Chief of Logistics of the Belarusian Armed Forces
Deputy Minister of Defence for Armament and Chief of Armament of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Major General Sergei Simonenko
Deputy Minister of Defence, Major General Andrey Zhuk

Individuals will be unable to travel to the UK and any UK-based assets will be frozen.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We are inflicting economic pain on Putin and those closest to him. We will not rest until Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is restored.

Background

The individuals and entities have been designated under the UK’s Russia sanctions regime for their role in destabilising Ukraine and undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
The UK has already imposed sanctions on more than 100 people and organisations in response to the fraudulent elections in Belarus and the litany of abhorrent acts and human rights violations that the Lukashenko regime continues to commit. Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

01 Mar 22. Australia to Provide Lethal, Nonlethal Aid to Ukraine. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen H. Hicks met yesterday with Australian Defense Secretary Greg Moriarty to advance the United States-Australia alliance and compare perspectives on managing national defense enterprises, Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon said.

Moriarty told Hicks that Australia’s government has decided to provide lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine. Hicks welcomed the announcement as a demonstration of Australia’s enduring commitment to global peace and security, Pahon said.

The leaders also discussed progress in the Australia-United Kingdom-U.S. trilateral security partnership, known as AUKUS. Topics included the identification of initial, advanced capabilities to pursue through trilateral cooperation, governance processes for the trilateral partnership and efforts to bolster information-sharing, Pahon said.

They also discussed alliance management issues, including defense industrial base cooperation and pending U.S. strategic reviews, he said.

“Deputy Secretary Hicks and Secretary Moriarty are committed to working closely to advance alliance priorities and objectives to ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” he added.

AUKUS is one of three military alliances with Australia. The others are the Australia, New Zealand and United States Security Treaty, which was established on Sept. 1, 1951, and the Quad. The Quad includes the United States, Australia, Japan and India. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III recently said Australia and the U.S. have an “unbreakable alliance” that continues to provide stability and security for the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

While the alliance itself is now over 70 years old, Australia and the United States have fought side by side in every major conflict since World War I, he said.

The United States will never forget that after the Sept. 11 attacks, Australia invoked the collective defense article of the ANZUS Treaty for the first time in its history, he said.

Once again, Australia sent troops to fight shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States and other allies and partners through two decades of combat during the war on terror. Austin said it’s a testament to the enduring nature of “mateship” that our Australian allies stood by with us to the very end of our presence in Afghanistan, and the United States will be forever grateful.

“Our shared interests and values ensure that our alliance will continue to advance our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, Austin said.

The United States and Australia will continue to advance peace, security and prosperity to ensure an open, inclusive and resilient Indo-Pacific region, according to a Sept. 16 joint statement on Australia-U.S. ministerial consultations.

“Our allies and partners are our greatest strategic asset and central to achieving our collective goals in the region. We will pursue closer cooperation in priority areas, including regional security, infrastructure, economic growth technology, democratic resilience, human rights, addressing the climate challenge, and pandemic response,” according to the joint statement.

The secretaries and ministers reaffirmed their commitment to working through the Quad to support Indo-Pacific partners to respond to the defining challenges of our time, the statement read. (Source: US DoD)

28 Feb 22. Italy joins growing list of weapon donors to help Ukraine’s defense. Italy on Monday joined a long list of countries promising weaponry to Ukraine as the East European country defends itself against an invasion by Russia.

The pledge by Rome took the number of nations in line to deliver military hardware and funding to Kyiv to over a dozen, including the United States and Canada.

The Italian cabinet signed off on a measure authorizing the dispatch of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, mortars and Milan, or Panzerfaust, anti-tank weapons. Italian media had claimed Israeli-made Spike missiles would be included in the package but a defense source said that was doubtful since Israel would need to approve their use and would be unlikely to do so.

Among other weaponry on the Italian list, which will need to approved by parliament this week, were Browning heavy machine guns, MG-type light machine guns and counter-IED systems.

The consignment could be flown to Romania or Poland and delivered over the border to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Germany has broken its long standing rule on not supplying weapons to countries at war with a promise to send 1,000 anti-tank weapons, 500 Stinger missiles, nine howitzers and 14 armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Sweden has pledged to send 5,000 anti-tank weapons, while Finland is is dispatching 1,500 rocket launchers and 2,500 assault rifles.

Norway is also reversing a policy of not supplying combatant countries by delivering up to 2,000 2,000 M72 anti-tank weapons. “Norway has strict policies regarding exports of military equipment, but Ukraine now faces extraordinary circumstances,” said prime minister Jonas Gahr Stoere.

The Netherlands will also send 200 Stinger missiles following a specific request to the European Union for the surface-to-air weapon.

The EU has in turn established a fund of 450m euros ($504m) to reimburse member states for weapons they send to Ukraine.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called the move “a turning point in the history of European integration,” on Monday.

Describing Italy’s decision to send arms, Italian defense minister Lorenzo Guerini said, “This is an important response that gives a sign of the concrete solidarity for Ukraine. Whoever wanted to divide us has been disappointed. NATO is stronger, Europe is more united.” (Source: Defense News)

28 Feb 22. More US troops could head to Europe amid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Pentagon says. The 14,000 U.S. troops activated in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may not be the last, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

“I would not rule out, in the incoming days, additional re-positioning in Europe as appropriate,” Kirby said.

The Pentagon has since said that it can’t say whether all 7,000 will be committed to NATO versus unilateral deployments.

“I don’t have any updates for you on the NATO Response Force or, or the troops that we have contributed,” Kirby said.

There are roughly between 3,000 and 5,000 more stateside troops on heightened alert, Kirby told Military Times on Friday.

“There’s no additional requests for ally support that I’m tracking,” he said Monday.

While U.S. troops are staying out of the fighting, the U.S. government has continued to funnel aid into Ukraine.

“It continues to arrive and continues to get to them, including in just the last day or so,” the official said. (Source: Army Times)

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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE