NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Sep 01.

BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian sources reported on 1 September that the situation around Kupiansk remains broadly stable, with Russian offensive operations drawing down to positional battles dominated by artillery exchanges. Nevertheless, on 31 August, a Russian online media outlet claimed that Russian forces continued to advance near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, located around four miles (7km) east and five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk, respectively. However, these claims remain unconfirmed. On 31 August, Ukrainian military authorities reported that Russian attacks in the Kreminna sector remain unsuccessful. On 30 August, Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that Russian forces are intensifying attacks in the Serbrianske forest in Luhansk oblast, though without making any noticeable progress.
SOUTHERN: Ukrainian counter-offensive operations continue to focus on expanding the spearhead around the town of Robotyne, 6 miles (10km) south of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast) but have not made any confirmed advances over the last 24 hours. Russian sources reported on 31 August and 1 September that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack north-west of Verbove, six miles (10km) east of Robotyne, but that despite Ukrainian advantage in numbers, Russian defences are allegedly holding. Other Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces are currently ‘bypassing’ Robotyne and attacking further south towards the village of Novoprokopivka, just over two miles (3.5km) further south, but we have no confirmation of advances as of yet. Further east along the Vremevsky salient and the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border, Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack, but have not made any confirmed progress for several days.
KHERSON: Russian sources reported on 31 August and 1 September that Ukrainian forces have successfully intensified efforts to establish new positions on key islands in the Dnieper River delta in Kherson oblast. Ukrainian forces have now reportedly landed on Nestryha island south-west of Kherson city, though it remains unclear if they will attempt to establish a permanent presence given many of the islands and wetlands are largely contested territory.
STRIKES: On 31 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukraine launched a long-range projectile that successfully hit a target located 435 miles (700km) away. While Zelensky did not provide details on the type of projectile used nor the strike’s location, his statements follow the reported strike against Pskov airbase, situated 435 miles (700km) from the Ukrainian border. The strike took place on the night of 29-30 August and damaged several Russian military aircraft. However, it remains unclear whether Zelensky is referring to the Pskov strike, given that the head of Ukrainian Defence Intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that a drone strike launched from within Russian territory hit the Pskov airbase. The statement comes after the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, declared on 26 August that an unspecified Ukrainian long-range missile hit Russian S-400 air defences in Crimea on 23 August. Following the strike, Budanov claimed that Ukraine could strike any part of Crimea, and it is clear that Ukraine’s long-range capabilities are continuing to grow.
STRIKES: On 1 September, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that air defences intercepted a drone over Lyubertsy, located 15 miles (23km) south-east of Moscow. However, an unnamed source from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence stated that the drone successfully hit an electronics production plant in Lyubertsy. While the claims have yet to be confirmed, they could indicate Kyiv’s increasing capacity to carry out attacks against key infrastructure facilities, such as industrial plants, as well as military targets, such as Pskov airbase. Such strikes highlight Ukraine’s increasing ability to gather intelligence on the location of these facilities within Russia and likely exploit pro-Ukrainian operatives to co-ordinate such operations from inside Russia.
STRIKES: Ukraine’s Air Force reported that on 1 September, Russia launched two Kalibr cruise missiles. Air defences reportedly destroyed one missile; the second missile hit a building in Vinnytsia oblast.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

ELECTIONS: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implied in an interview published on 30 August that he would run for a second term if elections are held in Ukraine in 2024. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian president noted difficulties with the prospect of holding elections during wartime, which is currently prohibited by the country’s constitution while martial law is in effect. Zelensky said elections should take place across the entirety of Ukraine, including on the frontline, adding that international observers would be required to ensure transparency and that the vote is carried out legally. The president also stated he would like Ukraine’s diaspora to participate, especially Ukrainians who sought refuge from the war in other countries and to guarantee voters’ safety from Russian attacks. According to a poll from February 2023, 65% of Ukrainians polled in Ukrainian-controlled territories want Zelensky to be re-elected for a second term. Despite recurrent corruption scandals rocking the government, Zelensky has broadly been personally unaffected by these issues, and he is likely to remain dominant in the polls in the run up to any potential vote in 2024.
ELECTIONS: On 31 August, authorities in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine announced the start of early voting in local elections, ahead of the final nationwide Russian vote on 10 September. Kremlin-backed officials in the occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts have commenced early elections, while voting in Kherson and Luhansk oblasts is expected to open on 2 September. Moscow does not fully control any of the four regions where the elections are being held. A member of the Donetsk election commission stated that early voting is being held to ‘protect’ its citizens by avoiding crowding at polling stations, where law enforcement agencies will be deployed to provide security to members of elections commissions. It is likely that this is also in part an intimidation tactic for voters in the region. Ultimately, the holding of local elections underscores the Kremlin’s desire to retain control over the regions it has annexed.
WAGNER GROUP: According to unconfirmed Ukrainian intelligence, the Kremlin has allegedly decided to relocate most Wagner Group fighters to Africa by mid-September. Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre, which is operated by Ukraine’s Special Forces, reported on 31 August that the mercenary force’s personnel will leave Belarus for the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sudan. It claimed Moscow has its own geopolitical interests in these countries and supports either the junta or rebel groups therein. The organisation stated a smaller contingent of Wagner Group fighters will remain in Belarus to instruct special units of the country’s Ministry of Internal Affairs to counter a possible rebellion against Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, or sign a contract with Russia’s MoD to fight in Ukraine. The veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, and the absence of any known current Wagner military presence in Mozambique or Niger raises questions about its accuracy. Nevertheless, we previously forecasted that select Wagner Group fighters could remain in Belarus for training purposes.
WAGNER GROUP: In July, late Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said the mercenary force is ready to increase its presence across Africa. There is a realistic possibility that Wagner could increase its presence in CAR, Libya and/or Mali out of the above-mentioned countries, which would raise human rights concerns in these states. It could also increase compliance issues within the mining sector and require heightened due diligence for firms therein.

FORECAST

AID: The UK’s largest defence company, BAE Systems, has established a local entity in Ukraine and signed deals with Kyiv to help increase the supply of weapons and military aid. In a statement on 31 August, the defence firm stated that the first agreement paves the way for BAE Systems to work alongside Ukraine’s armed forces to understand and support its future force structure and capability requirements, as well as aid in revitalising Ukraine’s industrial base. The second agreement creates a framework for BAE Systems to work directly with Ukraine to explore potential partners and how it could ultimately facilitate the production of 105mm light guns domestically, which would ultimately bolster Ukraine’s resilience over the long term. There is a realistic possibility that Russian forces could attempt to target the facility in the coming weeks and months.

Domestic artillery production remains one of the most important long-term goals to sustain Ukraine’s war effort in what is likely to remain a highly attritional conflict well into 2024, if not beyond. On 31 August, Ukrainian head of the Main Directorate of Missile Forces and Artillery and Unmanned Systems of the General Staff claimed that Ukraine had ramped up production of various artillery systems and had now gained parity in counter-battery capabilities. Baranov emphasised that Soviet-era artillery has an average range of up to 15 miles (24km), while Western-supplied NATO systems consistently outrange this between 18.5-25 miles (30-40km). Various Russian sources, including commanders on the ground, have in recent weeks raised concerns over Russia’s declining counter-battery capability and Ukraine’s increasingly effective use of artillery with drones. Given extensive Western supplies, Ukrainian forces have retained an advantage in tube artillery throughout this counter-offensive, though the Russians have consistently had an advantage in multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS). However, Ukraine’s parity or advantage in tube artillery will remain heavily dependent upon continued supplies from Western allies at the current rate, which remains uncertain going into 2024.

Nevertheless, for the time being, Western aid continues to flow as the counter-offensive continues. Politico reported on 31 August that ten of the 31 promised Abrams tanks are expected to arrive in Ukraine in mid-September. According to an unnamed US Defense Department official, the tanks are currently in Germany undergoing final refurbishments before being sent onwards to Ukraine. Colonel Martin O’Donnell, a spokesperson for the US Army Europe and Africa Command, told the outlet that the US is committed to expediting the delivery of the 31 tanks to Ukraine by autumn, but declined to give a specific timeline. Meanwhile, on 31 August the US Department of Defense announced a contract for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) to be provided to Ukraine. However, it does not specify how many of these weapons will be sent to Ukraine, or their delivery date.

Ukraine: Russian threat actor poses continued security risk to Ukrainian soldiers, civilians. According to a joint advisory released on 31 August by members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, a Russian state-sponsored threat actor, ‘Sandworm’, is using an Android malware (‘Infamous Chisel’) to remotely access Ukrainian soldiers’ devices, monitor network traffic, access files and steal information of strategic significance. Infamous Chisel configures a persistent backdoor on soldiers’ devices that frequently checks for files and other information that may provide useful as intelligence for the Russian military. This includes information identifying a soldier’s location or outlining plans related to Ukraine’s counter-offensive. This report follows another issued by the US Department of Defense (DoD), which states that Russia is using fraudulent websites pretending to be support forums for friends and relatives of missing, captured or dead Ukrainian soldiers in a bid to steal their personal data. The DoD suspects that the stolen personal information will then be used to detain family members living in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine and deport them to Russia. Sandworm and other Russian state-sponsored actors will continue to pose a significant security risk to both Ukrainian soldiers and civilians as the war persists.

Bulgaria: Probe into corruption, Russian deals over pipeline will raise government stability risks. On 31 August, the Sofia City Prosecutor announced that it will launch an investigation into numerous high-level Bulgarian politicians for allegedly dealing with sanctioned Russians to speed up the Turkstream pipeline construction. The Anti-Corruption Fund (ACF) has also revealed that the Bulgarian American Credit Bank (BACB) was involved in business deals with sanctioned Russians. These alleged offences date from 2019, when the former president, Boyko Borissov, was in power. On 29 August, Borissov was accused of financial ties with sanctioned mogul Vassil Bozkhov, who was tied to the late Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. As such, these findings reinforce ongoing concerns around entrenched corruption and possible sanctions evasion by leading oligarchs. As Borrissov still plays an important role in the already unstable coalition’s Citizens for European Development in Bulgaria (GERB) party, government instability is likely to increase further amid the ongoing investigations.

Aug 31.

BAKHMUT: The commander of Ukraine’s land forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated on 30 August that Ukrainian forces are continuing to advance along the Bakhmut axis, despite continual Russian counter-attacks. The heaviest fighting is currently taking place in the outlying districts of Bakhmut itself, Kurdyumivka and Andriivka, which are located nine miles (14km) and six miles (10km) south and south-west of the town, respectively. However, there have been no further confirmed Ukrainian advances over the last 24 hours.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 30 August, Syrskyi acknowledged that the most intense fighting is taking place near Raihorodka and Kovalivka, located eight miles (13km) and 7.5 miles (12km) west and south-west of Svatove, respectively. In these sectors, Russian forces are reportedly conducting assaults with armoured vehicles. On 30 August, a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces made gains in unspecified locations four miles (7km) east of Kupiansk. However, such claims remain unconfirmed.
SOUTHERN: Ukrainian forces are likely operating close to the key settlement of Verbove, located around 12 miles (20km) south-east of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast). This means Kyiv is likely attempting to expand and consolidate its spearhead along the southern axis. Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhzhia reported earlier on 31 August that Ukrainian forces have switched their focus from Robotyne, which they retook earlier this week, to Verbove. Satellite imagery from 30 August clearly shows increased kinetic activity around the settlement, which suggests defending Russian forces are coming under mounting pressure as Ukraine seeks to advance. Geolocated footage from 30 August indicates that Ukrainian light infantry or reconnaissance units are operating within the north-western outskirts of the settlement.
SOUTHERN: Russian forces are evidently losing control of the north-western approaches to Verbove. Several Russian sources acknowledged earlier on 31 August that Ukrainian forces have been able to ‘slightly advance’ north-west of Verbove. Nevertheless, most Russian sources have repeatedly denied reports that Ukrainian forces successfully penetrated the first layer of Russian fixed defences in this sector. As such, the distance of the Ukrainian frontline from the town itself remains unclear. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on 30 August that its forces are continuing to push south of Robotyne, and are advancing to their next objective, Novoprokopivka, which is located just over two miles (3.5km) further south.
STRIKES: A satellite image posted by Russian open-source intelligence (OSINT) likely confirms that Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia’s Pskov airfield on the night of 29-30 August destroyed at least two Russian Il-76 aircraft. On 30 August, the spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), Andriy Yusov, stated that the drone strike destroyed four aircraft and possibly damaged two others at the airfield. According to independent media, Ukrainian forces have been able to carry out at least nine successful attacks against military airbases in Russian and Russian-annexed territory since the beginning of the war. The attacks have reportedly damaged 24 Russian military aircraft, though the true extent of the damage remains unclear given possible inflated Ukrainian claims. Strikes against Pskov and Soltsky airfields reflect the increasing reach of Kyiv’s drones, and the challenges they pose to Moscow’s efforts to disperse its aircraft across Russia. On 31 August, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed that Russia will subsequently have to consider reinforcing air defences around key airbases which are vulnerable to Ukrainian drone strikes due to apparent weaknesses in Russia’s existing air defence network.
STRIKES: On 31 August, the Russian authorities claimed that their air defences shot down a drone directed at Moscow, as well as three drones over Bryansk oblast (the latter was also targeted by two drones on the evening of 30 August). Russian officials in Crimea also reported the interception of a cruise missile over the peninsular on 30 August. A Crimean Telegram channel reported explosions in Feodosia and Alushta, in eastern and southern Crimea, respectively.
MARITIME: Fresh satellite imagery shows that Russian forces have set up ‘block ships’ at the western approaches to the Kerch Strait Bridge in a clear bid to defend against future unmanned surface vessels (USV) maritime drone attacks. This is Russia’s latest defensive innovation as Ukraine makes ever greater use of novel maritime and aerial drones; these continue to pose a potent threat to Russian naval, maritime, land and aerial assets. Ukraine’s GUR reported on 22 August that Russian forces are sinking ferries in this location in a bid to prevent further USV attacks. It remains likely that they will also set up boom barriers across large stretches of the bridge to catch drones before they can reach the main bridge structure. It should be noted that a channel for shipping to pass under the main bridge remains open for commercial and naval vessels.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

WAGNER GROUP: The Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, disclosed on 30 August that Russian investigators are exploring the possibility that the private jet carrying the Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was downed deliberately. It marks the first explicit acknowledgement from the Kremlin that Prigozhin was possibly assassinated, though Peskov continues to refute that he was killed at the behest of the Russian government. Peskov also stated the probe by Russia’s investigative committee is not yet complete and added that international agencies will not be involved in the investigation, especially as ‘foul play’ is one of the explanations being considered. Aviation authorities in Brazil, where the downed aircraft was manufactured, told the Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK) that they are willing to take part in the investigation if it is conducted according to international standards.
WAGNER GROUP: MAK oversees aviation accident investigations in various former Soviet republics, including Russia. However, it stated on 30 August that it is not conducting an investigation into the accident and that it will not comment on its circumstances. If international aviation agencies do not take part in the investigation, the Russian authorities will likely be granted further opportunities to frame the findings in a way that removes the Russian state or prominent related individuals from any potential involvement in the incident.
CORRUPTION: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 30 August that all cases in which decisions relating to a person’s fitness for military service are unfounded and ‘illegal’ should be investigated by Ukraine’s law enforcement. Ukraine’s law enforcement agencies have investigated several medical commissions across the country in recent weeks. These revealed that some officials have assisted military-aged men to obtain fake documents ‘proving’ they have a disability or are temporarily unfit for military service in exchange for financial rewards. On 30 August, Zelensky claimed bribes of up to USD 15,000 were paid for medical exemptions from military duty. Zelensky noted that in some regions of Ukraine the number of people removed from the military register due to decisions made by the medical commission had increased tenfold since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, decrying the situation as ‘corrupt’. Ultimately, such corrupt practices have almost certainly reduced the pool of available manpower to counter Russia.
CORRUPTION: A Ukrainian media outlet reported on 31 August that Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov is likely to be dismissed in the near future. The reports about his potential dismissal come after an investigation alleged that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) signed a contract with a Turkish company in September 2022 to purchase ‘winter’ clothes’ worth USD 33 m; the garments were allegedly summer clothes, while irregularities in costs were also identified. Reznikov stated on 25 August that he is ready to resign if the procurement accusations are confirmed. Zelensky and wider Ukrainian law enforcement agencies will highly likely continue their efforts to crack down on corruption which hinders Kyiv’s war effort in the coming months, though graft will likely remain pervasive in Ukraine’s government structures and medical commissions.

FORECAST

GRAIN: On 30 August, unnamed US officials stated that Moldova, Romania and the US are exploring the possibility of increasing exports of Ukrainian grain via the Danube River. A US official explained that given the Danube route is within NATO territorial waters, grain transports will likely be less vulnerable to security threats such as Russian strikes or mines. However, Moscow will likely continue targeting Danube grain export infrastructure in Ukrainian territory in the coming weeks. There is a realistic possibility that merchant ships will suffer collateral damage in future strikes; continued attacks against Ukraine’s riverine ports will likely cause supply chain disruption along this section of the Danube River.

The negotiations illustrate Bucharest’s increasing importance in alternative export strategies for Ukrainian grain. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu hopes that around 60% of Ukrainian grain will transit through Romania. In the coming weeks, a meeting between Romanian and Moldovan officials will reportedly explore options to expand Danube transit capacities; plans to expand Danube port capacities will likely be achieved in the coming months. They will most likely require external funding to expand logistic capabilities, which will likely increase transport costs for Ukrainian grain. On 30 August, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority announced that US partners will assist Ukraine in restoring its port infrastructure. It stated that a memorandum of understanding was signed this week to facilitate co-operation in the planning, development, construction and maintenance of Ukrainian port infrastructure, among other areas.

Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign ministry announced on 30 August that its top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, and his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, will discuss a proposal by Moscow for an alternative to the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Fidan is in Moscow from 31 August until 1 September for a working visit. The plan envisions Russia sending around a m tonnes of its grain to Turkey at a discounted price, with financial support from Qatar. It would then be processed in Turkey and shipped to those nations most in need. The Russian foreign ministry claimed it considers this scheme to be an optimal working alternative to the BSGI, though did not specify why. The proposal indicates that Russia is unlikely to return to the BSGI in the near future.

Ukraine-Romania: Grain transit through Danube will lower security threats, raise transport costs. On 30 August, unnamed US officials stated that the US, Romania and Moldova are exploring the possibility of increasing exports of Ukrainian grain via the Danube River. The US official explained that given the Danube route is within NATO territorial waters, grain transports will likely be less vulnerable to security threats such as Russian strikes or mines. However, Moscow will likely continue targeting Danube grain export infrastructure on Ukrainian territory. The negotiations illustrate Bucharest’s increasing importance in alternative export strategies for Ukrainian grain, with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu hoping 60% of Ukrainian grain would transit through Romania. In the coming weeks, a meeting between Romanian and Moldovan officials will reportedly explore options to expand Danube transit capacities. Plans to expand Danube port capacities will likely be achieved in the coming months. They will most likely require external funding to expand logistic capabilities, thus likely raising transport costs for Ukrainian grain.

Aug 30.

BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces continue their counter-offensive operations around the town, but have not made any confirmed progress in recent days. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 30 August that their forces are entrenching themselves at the currently held frontline. Russian sources also reported earlier on 30 August that over the last 24 hours, Ukrainian forces pushed into the centre of Klishchiivka, four miles (6km) south-west of Bakhmut, but were reportedly repulsed to their earlier positions. Russian forces also reportedly launched a counter-attack on 29 August into central Kurdyumivka, six miles (10km) south of Bakhmut, which reportedly pushed back the Ukrainians to the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal, which runs west of the village. However, it is unclear what territory Ukrainian forces have ceded, if any, in this direction.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 29 August, a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are advancing up to 0.6 miles (1 km) a day along the Oskil-Kreminna line. A Russian source reported that Russian forces captured a position near Synkivka, located five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk, with several Russian milbloggers claiming Russian advances in the Kupiansk sector. However, given that there is no visual confirmation of such advances, it remains possible that such claims seek to exaggerate Russian gains in the sector.
SOUTHERN: Heavy fighting is reportedly still taking place in the southern outskirts of Robotyne, with Ukrainian officials reporting on 29 August that their forces are currently conducting ‘stabilisation measures’ in the town. Nevertheless, geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces are continuing to make marginal advances some three miles (5km) south-east of the town, where they are approaching the next layer of Russian fixed defences. However, Russian occupation officials claimed on 30 August that Ukraine had not yet taken the town of Robotyne and that they had not overcome the first line of Russian defences in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Conflicting reports make confirmation difficult, but geolocated footage strongly indicates that Ukrainian forces are pushing south at a slow rate, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting ‘success’ and entrenchments, but no confirmed advances, in the area on 30 August.
STRIKES: On 30 August, Ukraine launched a large-scale drone strike attack targeting Bryansk, Kaluga, Moscow, Oryol, Pskov and Ryazan regions. Although Russian authorities claimed the strikes were unsuccessful, Russian media outlet Tass reported a fire in a military airfield in Pskov, damaging four IL-76 transport aircraft. Recent satellite footage from Engels 2 military airbase, which had previously been targeted by Ukrainian drones, appears to show Tu-95 bombers with a new ‘covering’ on its wings and fuselage, which could realistically be a new form of experimental defence or armour designed to confuse Ukrainian tracking. Such defences reflect the growing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to Russia’s extensive air force. Footage from 30 August also shows that multiple explosions occurred in Bryansk while a drone hit an empty oil storage facility in Kaluga oblast, according to local authorities. Air traffic was suspended over Pskov region on 30 August, while Moscow’s airports temporarily halted operations following the strikes.
STRIKES: Although Kyiv has not commented on the strikes, the latest drone strike illustrates Ukraine’s growing capacity and willingness to carry out attacks deep into Russian territory. The increasing frequency of such strikes challenges the Kremlin’s efforts to downplay the impacts of the war on the Russian population and points to enduring weaknesses in Russia’s air defence network. Following the strikes, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated the strike would not go unpunished and claimed that such strikes deep into Russian territory would have required intelligence from Western countries. Ultimately, increasingly audacious Ukrainian strikes against Russia will sustain the risk of large-scale Russian retaliatory strikes.
STRIKES: On 20 August, Kyiv authorities reported that Ukraine’s capital was targeted by a large-scale Russian strike, including 28 cruise missiles and 16 drones. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny stated that Ukrainian air defences intercepted all of the missiles and 15 drones. Kyiv City Military Administration head Serhiy Popko reported that the attack was the largest strike against the capital since spring 2023. According to media reports, Russian forces first launched the drones toward Kyiv from different directions, then missiles from Tu-95 strategic bombers. The pattern likely illustrates an adjustment of Russian striking tactics observed over recent months: Russia attempts to overwhelm air defences with drone strikes to create opportunities for missiles to then hit their targets. However, the high interception rate of the latest strike illustrates the capital’s improved air defences. Russian drones also targeted infrastructure facilities in Zhytomyr oblast, where railway tracks were reportedly damaged, causing travel disruption.
MARITIME: The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 30 August that Su-30 naval aviation aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet intercepted and destroyed four high-speed Ukrainian naval boats east of Snake Island. The boats allegedly had contingents of a small ‘landing force’ of up to 50 personnel, and while four were allegedly hit, other Russian sources report at least nine such high-speed boats took part in the attempted raid, which turned back after being intercepted 37 miles (60km) west of Olenivka, on the Crimean coast. While we cannot confirm this, Ukraine claimed to have launched a limited ‘special operation’ and landed on the Crimean peninsula on the 24 August raid (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 24 August 2023). Therefore, this could realistically have been another attempt to conduct such a raid, which Russian sources claim was due to take place to mark the Day of Remembrance of the Defenders (29 August).
MARITIME: Further such Ukrainian naval raids are likely to mark symbolic occasions in the Ukrainian calendar, but after each such attack, Russian defences are likely to adapt and learn, making subsequent operations more difficult. Ultimately, such limited landings are unlikely to achieve serious strategic effect in any case, with long-range drone and missile attacks against Russian logistics much more likely to impede Russia’s war effort in the south. Nevertheless, these raids are likely in part aimed at forcing Russia to divert much-needed troops away from the key southern axis to protect the Crimean coast.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHINA: Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly agreed to visit China later this year. Bloomberg reported on 29 August, citing three unnamed individuals with knowledge of the matter, that the Kremlin is preparing for Putin to attend the Belt and Road Forum in October. Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Putin to the event in March during the former’s state visit to Russia. According to two insiders, the Russian president is only willing to visit countries where his security service can completely ensure his safety, with China being one such location. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Putin in March over his alleged involvement in the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine. Subsequently, the Russian leader has avoided travel to countries that could enforce the warrant, such as South Africa for the BRICS summit between 22-24 August. Putin last visited China in February 2022 just weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and held talks with Xi at which the two sides declared a ‘no limits’ partnership. The Russian leader’s slated visit to China will likely aim at reinforcing the image of strong relations between Moscow and Beijing, though aspects of the Russian-Chinese partnership remain tilted in China’s favour.
WAGNER GROUP: Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was buried on 29 August in a cemetery on the outskirts of St Petersburg. Prigozhin’s press service said the funeral took place in a ‘closed format’ and an independent news outlet quoted a cemetery employee as saying that only 20 to 30 friends and family members were in attendance. There was reportedly a strong presence of police officers and members of the Rosgvardia national guard nearby, likely to mitigate any large-scale public support for Prigozhin and potential unrest or other security risks. Separately, a local media outlet in Russia’s Samara oblast reported on 24 August that crosses and wreaths had been removed from graves at a Wagner Group cemetery in the region. Local residents also claimed grave mounds had been levelled to the ground, adding that there are plans to ‘transform’ the appearance of the cemetery. However, there is a realistic possibility that wreaths and crosses have instead been removed in an attempt to erase the recent memory of the Wagner Group following its short-lived mutiny in late June.

FORECAST

ELECTIONS: Independent news outlet Meduza reported on 28 August that the Kremlin’s domestic policy team had mostly finalised the list of who will run against incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin in the 2024 presidential election. The vote, which is scheduled for March 2024, will highly likely be held in the backdrop of the invasion given that both sides are unlikely to enter into negotiations for the foreseeable future.

Two of the outlet’s sources, allegedly Kremlin insiders, said politicians below the age of 50 were deliberately excluded from being selected. The rationale behind this is that a younger candidate could realistically raise doubts over whether the 70-year-old Putin is the same leader who came to power with a ‘firm hand’ back in 2000. A poll conducted in May 2023 by research company Russian Field found that Putin’s age is the third most common answer among respondents when asked what they dislike about the incumbent president. The Kremlin is almost certainly seeking to control negative perceptions over Putin’s age by intentionally barring younger candidates given he could realistically remain in power until the age of 83.

The reportedly selected candidates are from three of Russia’s ‘systemic opposition’ parliamentary parties: the Communist Party (KPRF), the far-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) and the centre-right New People (NL) party. While these parties are nominally independent, they often toe the Kremlin’s line on major policy decisions and are therefore unlikely to jeopardise Putin’s prospect of re-election, nor disrupt the status quo. Notably, the KPRF allegedly plans to nominate its long-standing leader Gennady Zyuganov, while the LDPR is expected to nominate its leader Leonid Slutsky, who is also the head of the State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee.

The Kremlin is highly likely seeking to choose predictable, established presidential candidates to ensure Putin’s re-election is not threatened by genuine opposition figures. On 6 August, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov described Russia’s presidential election as not an accurate representation of authentic democracy, but rather a ‘costly bureaucracy’. He forecasted Putin will be re-elected with over 90% of the vote. However, Peskov later claimed that he had been misquoted by the New York Times.

Meanwhile, on 27 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implied that he would like to hold Ukraine’s own parliamentary and presidential elections. However, he noted this would require legislative changes, funding from Kyiv’s allies and international observers to potentially visit the frontlines. Elections cannot currently be held in Ukraine under martial law, meaning that the parliamentary elections originally planned for 29 October 2023 cannot go ahead as martial law conditions will remain until mid-November. It is highly likely that martial law will continue to be renewed as the war continues. Given Zelensky stated that he would be against diverting funds for weapons in favour of hosting elections, this could realistically indicate that the Ukrainian presidential elections in March 2024 will not be held. This is unless legal, logistic and funding obstacles are resolved in the coming months ahead of the vote’s original date.

Nevertheless, 2024 will be a key electoral year for the Eurasian region, with the US presidential elections likely to be a major determining factor in Washington DC’s support for Kyiv. Vivek Ramaswamy, a candidate for the Republican Party nomination in the 2024 presidential election, has stated that he would accept Russian control over Ukraine’s occupied territories and pledge to block Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO in exchange for Moscow rescinding its military co-operation with Beijing. While this represents a more extreme stance on Ukraine, the election of a Republican candidate could realistically decrease the support Kyiv receives from Washington DC, including weapons shipments, which will seriously threaten Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting an attritional war – which is likely part of Moscow’s strategy.

Aug 29.

BAKHMUT: Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, reported on 28 August that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces out of positions in the centre and east of Klishchiivka, located around four miles (6km) south-west of Bakhmut. While the extent of these Ukrainian advances remains unconfirmed, they are likely to be limited. Maliar also claimed that Ukrainian forces have now retaken almost 17 square miles (44 sq km) around Bakhmut during the counter-offensive, including 0.38 square miles (1 sq km) in the last week. However, progress remains slow and the attritional nature of the fighting on this axis is forcing Ukraine to commit a significant and sustained effort; this is likely diverting resources from what is arguably a more strategically significant breakthrough in the south of the country (see below).
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 26 August, UK Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed that Russian forces can realistically step up offensive operations in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions in the next two months. Moscow’s main goals are likely to be the creation of a buffer zone around Luhansk oblast and to regain the initiative by pivoting to the Oskil-Kreminna front as Russian forces are gradually losing ground in the south. Eastern Grouping of Forces spokesperson Illia Yevlash stated on 27 August that Russia has accumulated over 100,000 troops in the sector. Yevlash reported that Russian forces are shifting the offensive effort from the Kupiansk direction to Novoyehorivka, located around nine miles (15km) south-east of Svatove, where Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled ten attacks. Maliar also reported on 28 August that Russian forces are planning to regroup in the Lyman direction and that the Russian command is using Guards Air Assault (VDV) units to draw Ukrainian forces from the Bakhmut direction. According to Yevlash, Russia has concentrated 48,000 troops in the Lyman sector alone. It remains unclear whether Russia will launch a larger offensive in the Oskil-Kreminna sector in the coming months, though its current goal is likely to draw off Ukrainian forces to alleviate pressure on more critical southern fronts.
SOUTHERN: Ukrainian officials formally reported on 28 August that their forces had liberated Robotyne on the southern Zaporizhzhia axis. Geolocated footage, heat signatures from NASA satellite sensors and wider reporting indicate that Ukrainian forces are advancing south and south-east of the key settlement, which sits around six miles (10km) south of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Meanwhile, Russian sources reported earlier on 29 August that Ukrainian forces are prioritising advances towards Verbove, situated six miles (10km) east of Robotyne. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed earlier on 29 August that its forces have had ‘success’ in the Verbove direction, without providing further details.
SOUTHERN: The reported liberation of Robotyne suggests that Ukrainian forces are now penetrating Russia’s first line of fixed defences; further advances are likely to involve gruelling, steady progress rather than dramatic breakthroughs. Various Ukrainian sources reported on 26 August that since they have broken through this first main line of Russian defences, further advances will be easier – though this remains unclear given the need for Ukrainian forces to consolidate recently taken positions. Nevertheless, unconfirmed Ukrainian eye-witness reports at the front indicate that the second layer of Russian defences is just as heavily mined as the first, suggesting that Ukrainian forces will once again have to penetrate the minefields slowly and carefully in order to make further advances. A complex and dense network of interconnected Russian trenches and underground tunnels, together with anti-tank ‘dragon’s teeth’ and minefields, make up this second layer of defences, though it remains unclear just how densely they are manned.
SOUTHERN: Ukrainian sources claimed on 26 August that Russian forces have redeployed elements of the ‘elite’ 76th VDV division to the Robotyne area from Kreminna (Luhansk oblast) on the north-eastern front. The VDV’s 76th Division remains one of Russia’s most capable units. This development therefore strongly indicates that Russia is deploying as many available forces (rather than fresh reserves, which it seemingly does not have in significant numbers) to the key southern axis to slow the Ukrainian advance. It remains unclear how rapidly Ukrainian forces will be able to progress along the next layer of Russian defences, or whether they can effectively consolidate recent gains to facilitate further large-scale advances.
SOUTHERN: Further east, Ukrainian forces have also reportedly made marginal progress along the Vremevsky salient along the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblast border region. Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported on 27 August that Ukrainian forces are advancing in multiple directions, including south of Urozhaine, around 11 miles (18km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). Nevertheless, Russian sources have reported in recent days that the tempo of Ukrainian attacks in this sector has declined; if accurate, this possibly either reflects preparations for a renewed assault or the diversion of resources to more significant breakthroughs further west, near Robotyne.
STRIKES: The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that air defences shot down two drones over Tula oblast and two drones over Belgorod oblast on 29 August. On 28 August, the MoD also reported that two drones were intercepted above Bryansk oblast. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that drones were shot down over the capital on 28 and 26 August. Following the drone strikes, flights to the capital’s airports were reportedly suspended, indicating the continued and growing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s aviation corridors. While Kyiv did not comment on the latest strikes against Russia, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed that its 13th Main Directorate orchestrated a drone attack against a Russian military airfield in Kursk. Sixteen drones were reportedly launched; they allegedly destroyed two fighter aircraft (an Su-30 and a Mig-29) as well as an S-300 missile system and a Pantsir-S1 air defence system. However, this cannot be confirmed; satellite imagery of the airbase released after the attack shows no signs of damage or an attack. The claimed Kursk strike comes after Kyiv recently launched drone strikes against airbases housing long-range strategic bombers; if true, this would reflect Ukraine’s growing capability to target sites deep inside Russian territory.
STRIKES: On the night of 28 August, Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched two Kh-59 missiles and four Kalibr cruise missiles. Air defences reportedly intercepted both Kh-59 and two of the Kalibr missiles; reports indicate that an industrial facility in Poltava oblast was hit. On the night of 26-27 August, Ukrainian air defences reportedly shot down four cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-55 and Kh-555 variants) of eight unspecified projectiles launched by Russian forces. While Ukraine’s air force reported that the projectiles were shot down over central and northern regions, the Russian MoD claimed that its missiles struck a Ukrainian military airfield near the village of Pinchuky (Kyiv oblast).

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHINA: According to a recent study, more than 60% of foreign components in Russian drones used to attack Ukraine come from China. The investigation was led by the Yermak-McFaul Expert Group, and its results were published on 28 August by Ukraine’s Presidential Office. It examined 174 foreign components from three types of drones: the Shahed-136/131, Lancet and Orlan-10 variants. The study stated that China is the main supplier of critical components for Russian drones, accounting for 67%, with 17% of that figure coming from Hong Kong. Turkey and the UAE are the next largest providers of components, at 5% and 2%, respectively. Components produced in Japan, South Korea and Switzerland, as well as other countries, were also reportedly found in the drones, including processors, microcircuits and transistors.
CHINA: The study demonstrates that Russia is still able to obtain foreign-made components despite Western sanctions designed to curtail Moscow’s ability to acquire dual-use technology. In late July, China announced export controls on some drones and drone-related equipment; these will take effect on 1 September. The Chinese commerce ministry said that the risk of high-specification and high-performance commercial drones being converted for military use is rising. Export restrictions were likely put in place partly to reinforce measures to prevent the sale and provision – direct or indirect – of dual-use equipment to Russia, including drones. Nevertheless, allies of the West and Kyiv will likely seek to introduce measures in the coming months designed to curb Russia’s ability to acquire equipment that can be used to attack Ukraine.
CORRUPTION: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed in a televised interview on 27 August that corruption should be equated with treason during wartime. Zelensky noted the proposal would be submitted to the country’s parliament within a week, but stated he is uncertain as to whether lawmakers will support it. Zelensky’s comments are almost certainly aimed at demonstrating Kyiv’s efforts to crack down on corruption in order to launch accession talks vis-à-vis the EU and to ensure continued support from the West. In June, the European Commission (EC) stated that Ukraine has made ‘some progress’ on fighting corruption. Politico reported on 28 August, citing two senior unnamed Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter, that the plan will possibly lead to high-profile corruption cases being passed to Ukraine’s SBU and away from the oversight of the country’s anti-graft agencies. According to these sources, this would possibly allow the SBU to hide corruption cases involving top officials, ultimately threatening Ukraine’s anti-corruption infrastructure.
CORRUPTION: Despite Kyiv’s efforts to challenge corruption, it will likely remain an entrenched issue within state structures in the long term. On 17 August, Zelensky announced that he had signed a law changing how judges comprising the country’s Constitutional Court are selected – a necessary requirement to start EU membership talks. According to Zelensky, the law guarantees the transparent, professional and honest selection of the court’s judges. However, there is still a realistic possibility that the law will not resolve long-standing issues within the court given previous unsuccessful attempts at reforming the country’s judiciary.
BELARUS: A second contingent of Russian troops arrived in Belarus on 29 August to participate in planned military drills. According to the Belarusian Hajun Project, which monitors military activity in the country, Russian military personnel arrived in Brest in south-western Belarus for upcoming joint exercises with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation’s (CSTO) rapid response forces. These will take place from 1 to 6 September. However, it did not specify how many troops had arrived, nor did it state whether they were accompanied by any equipment. While new Russian deployments are likely to remain small, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated on 25 August that the ‘core’ of Wagner Group fighters will remain in Belarus, adding that up to 10,000 mercenary fighters will be in the country in a few days’ time. While the drills will likely raise regional tensions, the risk of a military provocation directed against Minsk’s EU and NATO neighbours, as well as Ukraine, is highly unlikely.

FORECAST

ENERGY: On 28 August, Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), stated that Russia is likely accumulating projectiles in preparation for an intense strike campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter. Skibitsky assessed that Russia’s current arsenal is made up of 585 missiles with a range of over 310 miles (500km). It is the first official Ukrainian breakdown of estimated Russian missile numbers since January, and indicates that Russia has been able to at least replenish its missiles this summer. In particular, Kyiv estimates Russia retains 270 Iskandr ballistic and cruise missiles (126 more than in January), 75 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles (up by 22 since January) and 140 sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles (up by 81 since January), among other missile types.

However, according to Skibitsky, Russia’s strike campaign is unlikely to reach the intensity of last winter’s attacks due to diminishing stockpiles and limited production capacity, including shortages of foreign components. As a result, Russia has been more cautious and discerning in its use of missiles, with Skibitsky reporting that the frequency of Russian strikes decreased in the summer compared to May. However, Moscow has made greater use of Shahed drones to distract Ukrainian air defences. The 2023-24 winter campaign is unlikely to reach the same tempo as the 2022-23 campaign, during which strikes involving over 100 missiles were often launched. Moscow is unlikely to be able to sustain such high-intensity strikes for long.

Amid preparations for renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter, the CEO of Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz stated on 28 August that it has accumulated the 14 bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas reserves needed by the end of the summer and ahead of the ‘heating season’. According to Oleksiy Chernyshov, the company is on its way to surpass the 14.7 bcm target set for the start of November.

Last year, Naftogaz reached 14 bcm in early October, indicating that efforts to prepare for the winter have thus far yielded successful results. Chernyshov noted that Naftogaz has launched 54 new and refurbished gas wells across the country since January; these provide an additional 5 m cubic metres (mcm) per day. While these developments indicate efforts to build resiliency for Ukraine to sustain itself throughout the winter, Russia is highly likely seeking to undermine its energy security, with Skibitsky forecasting a renewed strike campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to begin at the end of September or in October.

Finally, speaking in an interview on 27 August, President Zelensky insisted that some strategic energy facilities should return to state control, especially amid conditions under which it is necessary to ensure the reliability of winter energy supplies. The Ukrainian president noted that such measures are needed to mitigate possible risks, stating this is ‘absolutely a requirement’ in wartime. While Zelensky did not provide further details of specific facilities, nor a timeframe for their hypothetical re-nationalisation, such a move would likely grant the Ukrainian government greater oversight regarding issues such as contingency planning for winter preparations should the war continue far into 2024.

Russia-Turkey-Ukraine: Low prospects of grain deal’s revival in short term despite diplomatic efforts. On 27 August, Ukrainian officials stated that a second cargo vessel left Odesa port, transiting via the ‘humanitarian corridors’ Kyiv has established for vessels blocked at Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Such routes are also part of Kyiv’s efforts to lay out alternative routes to the grain corridor since Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). However, on 25 August, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that such routes are not viable alternatives due to persistent security threats. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will reportedly visit his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to convince Moscow to renew the grain deal, with the meeting likely to take place on 4 or 8 September. However, despite Moscow’s recent claims that it would agree to renew the BSGI if its demands are met, Ankara is unlikely to succeed in relaunching the BSGI in the short term, with Russia likely seeking large concessions from the West, which are unlikely to be agreed.

Belarus-Lithuania-Poland: Further border closures with Belarus remain realistic possibility in coming weeks. On 28 August, Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński disclosed that Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will completely close their borders with Belarus if a ‘critical incident’ involving Wagner Group mercenaries takes place along one of their frontiers. Similarly, Kamiński’s Lithuanian counterpart Agnė Bilotaitė said an armed incident that poses a serious threat to national security could prompt border closures, or a mass influx of irregular migrants into either Latvia, Lithuania or Poland. Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated on 29 August that while Vilnius is not planning more border closures with Belarus in the near future, there is a possibility to do so as security threats remain. Further checkpoint closures, including the option to fully shut shared borders with Belarus, are a realistic possibility in the coming weeks. However, such a decision will likely be implemented as a last resort under specific circumstances given the subsequent disruption to supply chains and cross-border travel. (Source: Sibylline)

04 Sep 23. Russia recognises first crew to use hypersonic missile in Ukraine, TASS reports. The first Russian crew to use hypersonic, air-launched Kinzhal missiles during Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine has been presented with state awards, the Russian TASS state news agency reported on Monday.

“The Su-34 aircraft used the Kinzhal hypersonic missile during the special military operation,” TASS cited an unnamed military source as saying. “The first crew that successfully completed this task was presented with state awards.”

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special military operation”. Kyiv and its allies say the 18-month-long Russian aggression is an unprovoked war to grab land.

Moscow has said very little so far about the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, but Ukraine’s military Kyiv says Russia uses them frequently.

TASS did not say when Russia used the Kinzhal missiles for the first time in Ukraine. The Russian defence ministry said in March that the missiles had been deployed to destroy Ukrainian targets, according to the ministry’s Telegram channel.

The Kinzhal is one of six “next generation” weapons unveiled by President Vladimir Putin in a speech in March 2018.

(Source: Reuters)

04 Sep 23. Ukraine’s Zelenskiy moves to replace wartime defense minister.

Zelenskiy moves to replace wartime defense minister

Summary
Zelenskiy says he decided to replace Oleksii Reznikov
Reznikov lobbied West for billions of dollars of aid
His ministry faced graft allegations he called smears
Replacement will be Rustem Umerov, privatisation fund head

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday he had decided to replace his defence minister, setting the stage for the biggest shake-up of Ukraine’s defence establishment since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In his nightly video address to the nation, Zelenskiy said he would dismiss Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov and would ask parliament this week to replace him with Rustem Umerov, head of the country’s main privatisation fund.

Reznikov, defence minister since November 2021, has helped secure billions of dollars of Western military aid to help the war effort, but has been dogged by graft allegations surrounding his ministry that he has described as smears.

The decision comes amid a crackdown on corruption in Ukraine that Zelenskiy has been eager to emphasize. Kyiv has applied to join the European Union and the public has become highly sensitive to corruption as the war rages with no end in sight.

“I’ve decided to replace the Minister of Defence of Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov has been through more than 550 days of full-scale war,” Zelenskiy said. “I believe the ministry needs new approaches and other formats of interaction with both the military and society as a whole.”

Zelenskiy said he expected parliament to approve Umerov’s appointment, adding that Umerov “does not need any additional introduction”. Zelenskiy has to submit Umerov’s candidacy to parliament for review.

A 41-year-old ex-lawmaker and Crimean Tatar, Umerov has led Ukraine’s State Property Fund since September 2022 and played a role in sensitive wartime negotiations on, for instance, the Black Sea grain deal.

He has been praised in Ukraine for his track record at the State Property Fund, which oversees the privatisation of state assets and had been embroiled in corruption scandals before he took charge.

RAPPORT WITH THE WEST

During the war, Reznikov’s defence ministry lobbied the West to overcome taboos on supplying powerful military gear to Ukraine, including German-made main battle tanks and HIMARS rocket artillery. Kyiv now looks poised to receive U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets soon.

Although Reznikov has had numerous interactions with U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, a Pentagon spokesperson declined comment on the move, saying that it was an internal matter for the Ukrainian government.

Western military aid has played a crucial role in the war, as Ukraine first forced back Russian troops around the capital Kyiv before launching counteroffensives in the northeast and south.

Its troops are now fighting through heavily mined areas and Russian defensive lines to recapture territory in the southeast and east.

An English-speaker, Reznikov is seen as having built up a strong rapport with allied defence ministers and military officials.

One member of parliament has tipped him as Ukraine’s possible new ambassador to London.

His apparent exit appears to bring an end to months of domestic media pressure that began in January when Reznikov’s ministry was accused of buying food at inflated prices.

Though he was not personally involved in the food contract, some Ukrainian commentators said he should take political responsibility for what happened.

Last month, a Ukrainian media outlet accused his ministry of corruption during the procurement of winter coats for the army. Reznikov denied any wrongdoing and repeatedly said he was being targeted by a smear campaign. (Source: Reuters)

01 Sep 23. Kyiv presses for Taurus cruise missiles. Ukraine is pressing its allies to transfer Taurus (Target Adaptive Unitary and dispenser Robotic Ubiquity System) cruise missiles to complement the Storm Shadow and SCALP EG systems already supplied.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) posted artwork on its official X (formerly Twitter) account on 31 August showing the Taurus flanked by the Storm Shadow and SCALP EG, with the caption, ‘We can only win together!’ This was accompanied with the message, ‘Invited. Awaiting. Plans for use in place’.

This tweet followed earlier calls for Germany to transfer the Taurus as the UK has done for the Storm Shadow and France for the SCALP EG, the Ukrainian MoD and Ministry of Foreign Affairs having earlier launched a social media campaign under the banners of ‘Free the Taurus’ and ‘Taurus for Ukraine’.

As noted by Janes Weapons: Air Launched , the Taurus KEPD 350 family of precision‐attack cruise missiles were developed by Taurus Systems, a joint venture between MBDA Deutschland and Saab Dynamics. (Source: Janes)

03 Sep 23. Ukraine expects boom in drone production, defence minister says. Ukraine intends to increase drone production as early as this autumn, the Ukrainian defence minister was quoted as saying on Sunday, as the country conducts more frequent drone attacks on Russian territory.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have picked up in recent weeks, with dozens of drones striking Russia at once on some days, reaching as far as the western city of Pskov, 400 miles (600 km) from Ukraine.

Kyiv has used both aerial drones to attack airfields and aquatic drones to attack ships and the bridge to Crimea.

“I think this autumn there will be a boom in the production of various Ukrainian drones: flying, floating, crawling, etc., and this will continue to grow in volume,” Oleksii Reznikov told the state-run Ukrinform news agency.

He said one reason for the growth of production was that authorities had reduced various regulations and laws.

“So we rewrote regulations… and simplified the processes. And I believe that we also succeeded in that and gave us the opportunity for such a booster. Especially for drone manufacturers who started production from garages,” he said.

Ukraine is significantly dependent on supplies of modern Western weapons, but Kyiv has pledged not to use them on Russian territory and for such attacks it uses only domestically produced weapons, primarily drones.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Friday it had destroyed a total of 281 Ukrainian drones over the past week, including 29 over the western regions of Russia, indicating the scale of the drone war now under way between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine has attacked several airfields deep inside Russia, the centre of Moscow and military bases both in occupied Crimea and in regions close to the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian officials normally say little or nothing about attacks on Russian targets, but say that destroying Russian infrastructure is vital for the country’s war effort. (Source: Reuters)

04 Sep 23. Inquiry rejects US claims that South Africa supplied arms to Russia Ambassador alleges weapons were loaded on to Lady R ship docked in Cape Town Lady R docked at the Simon’s Town Naval Base near Cape Town, South Africa, in December © AP Inquiry rejects US claims that South Africa supplied arms to Russia. An investigation in South Africa has rejected a US allegation that the country supplied weapons to a Russian ship under US sanctions that was docked at a Cape Town naval base, after the accusation imperilled ties between the US and Africa’s most industrial economy. President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Sunday an inquiry “found that there was no evidence to support the claim that the ship transported weapons from South Africa destined for Russia” as alleged by the US ambassador to Pretoria this year. “When all matters are considered, none of the allegations made about the supply of weapons to Russia have been proven to be true,” he said. “None of the persons who made these allegations could provide any evidence to support the claims.” The Lady R, a vessel owned by Russia’s MG-FLOT, docked at the Simon’s Town base in mysterious circumstances in December, including appearing to switch off its transponder signal. South Africa’s defence ministry said at the time the ship had carried a delivery for the country’s armed forces.

Ambassador Reuben Brigety claimed in May that the US government was confident the vessel also “uploaded weapons and ammunition” in Cape Town on its way back to Russia, despite no official approval by South Africa’s government for arms exports to Russia or Ukraine since the war began. The allegation unleashed a diplomatic storm for Ramaphosa’s government, which has said it is non-aligned over the war in Ukraine, and shook South Africa’s financial markets as trade ties connecting key South African export industries to the US suddenly fell in doubt. “The allegations levelled against our country had a damaging effect on our currency, economy and our standing in the world,” Ramaphosa said on Sunday. Brigety and the US government did not detail evidence for the accusation, but Ramaphosa’s government was also unable to deny it outright, leading to the appointment of an inquiry headed by a retired judge to investigate. The claim came after rising frustration in Washington over South Africa’s ties to Russia, such as joint naval exercises on the anniversary of the war and what was seen as Pretoria’s equivocation in condemning the invasion. But the Biden administration has since moved to smooth relations with the biggest US trading partner in Africa, one of a number of non-aligned nations that Washington has sought to lobby over the war in order to challenge Russia’s narrative of the conflict. The US state department said on Sunday it appreciated “the seriousness” of the inquiry panel’s investigation into the Lady R. The state department added it had been “in direct communication” with Ramaphosa’s government and would continue the conversations through diplomatic channels. “We appreciate President Ramaphosa’s commitment to investigating this serious matter and look forward to advancing progress with our South African partners on our shared priorities, including trade, health, and climate,” the state department said. Ramaphosa has also sent ministers and advisers to Capitol Hill in an effort to stop trade preferences favouring South Africa’s access to US markets from being withdrawn. He has since played a greater role in African diplomacy over the war, making visits to Kyiv and Moscow. (Source: FT.com)

03 Sep 23. Zelenskiy says he struck key deal on pilot training in France- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he had struck a “very important agreement on training our pilots in France” in conversation with President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday.

“Our coalition of modern fighters is becoming stronger,” he said in his nightly video address.

He did not elaborate on what training would be undertaken. France does not have the F-16 fighter jets Ukraine has recently been promised by Denmark and the Netherlands. It does have French-made Rafale warplanes and previous-generation Mirage 2000 jets.

Zelenskiy said he and Macron had also discussed what France could do to help protect the Ukrainian city and region of Odesa, critical to grain exports, but did not elaborate.

The French foreign ministry said last month that it would reinforce its military support for Ukraine, notably in strengthening air defence capabilities. (Source: Reuters)

01 Sep 23. US to send depleted-uranium munitions to Ukraine. The Biden administration will for the first time send controversial armor-piercing munitions containing depleted uranium to Ukraine, according to a document seen by Reuters and separately confirmed by two U.S. officials.

The rounds, which could help destroy Russian tanks, are part of a new military aid package for Ukraine set to be unveiled in the next week. The munitions can be fired from U.S. Abrams tanks that, according to a person familiar with the matter, are expected be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

One of the officials said that the coming aid package will be worth between $240 million and $375 million depending on what is included.

The value and contents of the package were still being finalized, the officials said. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Although Britain sent depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine earlier this year, this would be the first U.S. shipment of the ammunition and will likely stir controversy. It follows an earlier decision by the Biden administration to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, despite concerns over the dangers such weapons pose to civilians.

The use of depleted uranium munitions has been fiercely debated, with opponents like the International Coalition to Ban Uranium Weapons saying there are dangerous health risks from ingesting or inhaling depleted uranium dust, including cancers and birth defects.

A by-product of uranium enrichment, depleted uranium is used for ammunition because its extreme density gives rounds the ability to easily penetrate armor plating and self-ignite in a searing cloud of dust and metal.

While depleted uranium is radioactive, it is considerably less so than naturally occurring uranium, although particles can linger for a considerable time.

The United States used depleted uranium munitions in massive quantities in the 1990 and 2003 Gulf Wars and the NATO bombing of former Yugoslavia in 1999.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says that studies in former Yugoslavia, Kuwait, Iraq and Lebanon “indicated that the existence of depleted uranium residues dispersed in the environment does not pose a radiological hazard to the population of the affected regions.”

Still, the radioactive material could add to Ukraine’s massive post-war clean-up challenge. Parts of the country are already strewn with unexploded ordnance from cluster bombs and other munitions and hundreds of thousands of anti-personnel mines.

The Wall Street Journal reported in mid-June the U.S. was considering sending depleted uranium rounds to Ukraine.

Recent weapons aid packages for Ukraine have included artillery, air defense missiles and ground vehicles as Ukraine’s counteroffensive grinds on. Reuters was unable to determine what else the package contained besides the depleted uranium rounds.

Funding authorization for the aid package comes through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which authorizes the president to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval during an emergency. The material will come from U.S. excess inventory.

The security assistance for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 has been more than $43bn.

(Source: Janes)

01 Sep 23. Dutch Defense Ministry Reports to Parliament on Military Aid to Ukraine. A Lithuanian Bofors L70 anti-aircraft gun. The Netherlands have delivered similar weapons to Ukraine as part of the €1.97 billion of military assistance it has provided since Russia’s invasion. (Lithuania MoD photo)

The Cabinet periodically informs the House about all deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine.

Delivery of military goods

— In this letter I inform the House of all deliveries made by the Netherlands up to and including 23 August 2023, and also about future deliveries already announced.

— The book value of the deliveries up to 23 August 2023 is included in the Letter to Parliament (€868 million), as well as the replacement value of supplies from own stock up to 23 August 2023 (€1.4 billion).

This is lower (€75 million) than the previous level (€1.5 billion as of 26 June 2023), because a number of delivered goods are being disposed of, and therefore do not need to be replaced. This concerns older goods that the Ministry of Defense no longer uses, such as the Bofors L70 40mm anti-aircraft guns.

— Also, the value of military goods from commercial suppliers (approx. €381 million) include contributions to the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) (€100 million) and the NATO fund Ukraine Comprehensive Assistance Package (UCAP) (€100 million) are included.

— The two initiatives regarding the joint procurement of 155mm ammunition from the European Defense Agency (EDA) (€130 million) and Germany (€130 million) are only included in the total value once completed.

— The total value of military aid amounts to 1.97 billion euros as of 23 August 2023.

(Click here for the MoD’s letter to Parliament (in Dutch) on the Dutch MoD website: https://open.overheid.nl/documenten/920c706b-6041-4c46-8cbd-f3f1669b66fb/file) (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com)(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Netherlands Ministry of Defence)

01 Sep 23. Zelenskyy boasts of new long-range weapon days after strikes inside Russia. Ukraine has built a new long-range aerial weapon that can hit targets 700km away, the latest sign that the country is strengthening its nascent arms industry. The announcement, made by Volodymyr Zelenskyy on social media overnight on Thursday came days after the Kremlin accused Kyiv of launching a missile strike that hit the Pskov air base, around 700km inside Russia. The attack destroyed at least two Ilyushin Il-76 military cargo planes. The Ukrainian president did not provide any more details about the new weapon but he said Kyiv was working on increasing its range further. “The [range] of our weapons, new Ukrainian weapons, is 700km [and] the task is [to extend that] further,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram, the messaging app. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began just over 18 months ago, Kyiv has steadily been extending its ability to hit targets deep behind enemy lines. It has also used foreign-supplied artillery and missile, such as US Himars and British Storm shadow missiles, to hit Russian targets on Ukrainian soil. However to strike within Russian territory, Ukraine has had to develop homegrown solutions as its western allies have refused to provide it with long range weapons to attack Russia itself. Last week, Oleksiy Danilov, head of the security council, said a new but unspecified Ukrainian-made cruise missile had hit a Russian air defence system in Russian-occupied Crimea, calling it a “new product . . . absolutely flawless”. Russian officials said on Friday that their air defences had intercepted several drone attacks in the country’s western regions, with no major damage or injuries reported. Kyiv has a policy of neither confirming nor denying attacks on Russian soil, which have become an almost daily occurrence. Drone attacks on Russia have so far been too limited to have had a major military impact; their purpose has been to inflict political and psychological harm, officials and analysts have said. However, that may be changing. Russia has sunk several cargo ships around the Kerch bridge that links the Russia mainland to the Crimea in order to create a barrier to protect it from a series of recent attacks by Ukrainian marine drones. Russia may also have redeployed some of its air defence systems from the Kuril Islands, which Japan claims as part of its territory, and moved them to western Russia, according to a report in Japan’s Kyodo News based on the analysis of satellite imagery. Yuriy Borisov, head of the Roscosmos space agency, said on Friday that Russia’s new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile complex, is now ready for combat duty. The Sarmat, Russia’s largest ever ballistic missile, was first tested last year and has been in development for more than a decade. It is designed to carry a payload of up to 10 heavy warheads. Moscow has said that the complex can hit targets 10,000-18,000km away. Zelensky’s remarks about Ukraine’s new long-range weapon comes as Kyiv seeks to ramp up its defence industry to make more weapons on home soil, especially of artillery shells, which are crucial for its counteroffensive. It has started making Nato-standard 155mm artillery shells, Zelensky said this week, “not enough, very little for the front, but it is already many times more than before”. On Thursday, Kyiv also struck a preliminary deal with British defence company BAE Systems that seeks to eventually produce 105mm light guns, a kind of artillery, within Ukraine. The British agreement came days after Ukraine and Sweden signed a statement of intent to strengthen co-operation in the production of CV90 armoured vehicles, which are made by a Swedish unit of BAE. (Source: FT.com)

01 Sep 23. BAE Systems to establish presence in Ukraine to seek partners on 105mm Light Guns. BAE will extend its support for Ukraine and set up an entity in the country to explore local production of the 105mm Light Gun. BAE announced it has signed an agreement with Ukraine to explore potential for local partners in the production of 105mm Light Guns, as well as an agreement to revitalise Ukraine’s industrial base and work alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to support its future force structure and capability requirements.

“Alongside our government customers, we’ve been discussing with President Zelenskyy and his team how to best evolve the support that we’re already providing to Ukraine,” said Charles Woodburn, chief executive, BAE Systems. “Signing the agreements and establishing a legal entity in Ukraine builds on our existing trust and support and paves the way for us to work together to provide more direct support to the Ukrainian armed forces.”

Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industry, expressed thanks for the signing of the agreement, and was optimistic about bringing production to Ukraine: “I am grateful to BAE Systems for the bold decision to stand side by side with us in the fight against Russian aggression and building the future of the Ukrainian defence industry. Together with the company, we will be able to localise the production of advanced weapons.

“BAE Systems has already been providing support to the Ukrainian war efforts through training and MRO services,” said Tristan Sauer, aerospace and defence analyst for GlobalData, referencing the support that BAE Systems is currently supplying through its entities in neighbouring Nato countries.

Sauer infers from the agreement signed with the government of Ukraine that BAE Systems has a robust outlook on Ukraine. “The decision by BAE Systems to pursue the production of defence material in collaboration with Ukrainian entities illustrates both a growing level of confidence in the resilience of Ukrainian industrial capacity as well as a tacit understanding that the conflict in Ukraine will continue to drive demand for more ‘conventional’ products such as towed artillery pieces.”

BAE systems manufacture two 105mm Light Gun Systems, the L118 and the L119 versions of the artillery piece. The 105mm Light Gun is a compact, helicopter portable system that can be towed behind light vehicles at high speed over rough ground, according to the manufacturer, and it is versatile in the ammunition type that can be introduced.

Sauer anticipates BAE’s involvement to become broader and deeper than the production of 105mm Light Guns. “As it seeks to expand its offerings in the digital security and unmanned systems markets, continuing to strengthen their relationship with Ukraine may further facilitate efforts to develop and market those products in the medium to long-term as the nation looks to shore up its security measures over the coming decade.”

(Source: army-technology.com)

31 Aug 23. Lockheed Martin Announces European F-16 Training Center in Romania. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and the governments of Romania and the Netherlands have announced a Letter of Intent to establish the European F-16 Training Center in Romania.

“The F-16 continues to play a crucial role in 21st Century Security missions for the United States, Europe, NATO and allies around the world,” said OJ Sanchez, vice president and general manager, Integrated Fighter Group. “Lockheed Martin is proud to partner with the Netherlands and Romania on this European F-16 Training Center in Romania, which will enhance mission readiness through a comprehensive F-16 training solution for Romanian pilots.”

The center will focus on ensuring effectiveness and safety of Romanians flying and operating F-16 fighter jets and could eventually expand to include training for other nations.

“Once details are finalized, we are confident the training center will ultimately benefit Romania and other regional F-16 operators, including potentially Ukraine,” added Sanchez.

31 Aug 23. Russian cyber group unleashes new malware campaign on Ukrainian military targets. A Russian cyber threat actor launched a novel malware campaign against Ukrainian military personnel, targeting Android devices to steal sensitive information from the battlefield, according to an international report published Wednesday.

Sandworm, a Russian state-sponsored threat actor linked to the Kremlin’s military intelligence service, leveraged a mobile malware known as “Infamous Chisel” to infect Android devices and periodically scan files and network information for exfiltration, the report said.

The new malware consists of a collection of components that gave the Russian threat actor backdoor access to infected devices to conduct network monitoring, traffic collection and file transfer operations.

The report, which provides technical details into the new kind of malware, was published by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the FBI, the National Security Agency and several international partners, including the U.K. National Cyber Security Centre, the New Zealand National Cyber Security Centre and the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security.

Ukraine’s security agency first uncovered the Russian-linked cyberattack earlier this month when it announced that it “exposed and blocked” attempts by Sandworm to gain unauthorized access to a combat data exchange system maintained by the country’s armed forces.

“Since the first days of the full-scale war, we have been fending off cyberattacks of Russian intelligence services aiming to break our military command system and more,” Illia Vitiuk, head of the Ukrainian security agency’s cybersecurity department, said at the time.

The new report assesses how Sandworm leveraged Infamous Chisel in an attempt to establish a persistent presence on impacted networks and includes indicators of compromise for affected devices.

The malware can be used to steal a combination of system device information, the report said, including details about commercial applications and others specific to the Ukrainian military.

CISA Executive Assistant Director for Cybersecurity Eric Goldstein said in a statement that the joint report reflects the urgency for all international cyber defense partners “to detect and mitigate Russian cyber activity” and “the importance of continued focus on maintaining operational resilience under all conditions.”

“For years, the U.S. government has been calling out Russian actors who have engaged in a range of malicious cyber activity targeting U.S. and allied partners for cyber espionage and potential disruptive actions,” Goldstein added.

The U.S. and its international partners have provided Ukraine with cybersecurity assistance since before the start of the Russian invasion to help boost the country’s cyber workforce and evade Russian cyberattacks.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Agency for International Development announced a $60m investment to help Ukraine ensure its critical infrastructure is protected against cyberattacks.

(Source: Nextgov/FCW)

30 Aug 23. Germany buys back Swedish IRIS-T missiles to supply to Kyiv. Germany has bought back 200 IRIS-T SLS (Surface Launched Short Range) air-defence missiles from Sweden to supply to Ukraine, Janes has learnt. The Swedish missiles are being refurbished by Diehl Defence and will replenish IRIS-T SLM (Surface Launched Medium Range) missiles that have been fired by Ukrainian forces defending against Russian air attacks. Sweden will procure IRIS-SLS missiles to replace the ones supplied to Ukraine. The Nordic country has mounted IRIS-SLS launchers on the rear unit of the BvS10 armoured all-terrain vehicle, whose wide tracks allow it to move over snowy and swampy terrain. Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM systems supplied by Germany have fired as many as 13 missiles during a single night. Janes has also learnt that the Ukrainian IRIS-T system Russia claimed to have destroyed at the beginning of August was a wooden decoy. (Source: Janes)

01 Sep 23.First Ukrainian troops finish US Abrams tank training. The first group of Ukrainian soldiers have completed their training on the US M1 Abrams tanks, with the first vehicles due to arrive in mid-September. About 200 Ukrainian troops have been learning to use the powerful main battle tanks at a US military training ground in Germany, a US military spokesperson told Politico. “The US is committed to expedite delivery of the 31 tanks to Ukraine by the fall,” said Colonel Martin O’Donnell. Ten of the tanks are undergoing refurbishment in Germany and will then be sent on to Ukraine. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

31 Aug 23. Cardboard drones prove their mettle in Russian airport strike. Australian-designed explosive “cardboard drones” have reportedly been used by Ukrainian forces in significant strikes this week.

Explosive-laden drones have allegedly been used to damage military transport and fighter aircraft at airfields in Kursk and a Pskov airbase in Northern Russia on 27 August.

Melbourne’s SYPAQ Systems produces the fixed-wing Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System which can be launched by hand or catapult and lands by itself.

The low-cost system is reportedly able to be constructed from a flat-pack box, can travel at 59km/h and travel up to 120 kilometres.

The Russian Ministry of Defence regarded the incident as a “terrorist attempt” in a statement published to social media platform Telegram.

“August 27, at night and in the morning, the Kyiv regime made another attempt at terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation using aircraft-type UAVs,” the statement alleged.

“Air defence systems on duty detected and destroyed two unmanned aerial vehicles in flight over the territory of the Bryansk and Kursk regions.”

Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko confirmed on 29 August that cardboard drones had been used against a “legitimate target” Russian airfield.

“Russia uses that airport to launch military operations and send missiles into Ukraine,” he said.

SYPAQ chief executive officer Amanda Holt, speaking earlier this year in March, confirmed the company is providing PPDS drones to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“It is an honour to be supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” she said.

“PPDS is an Australian capability that will help the Ukrainian people defend their country and is proof of the world-leading autonomous systems capabilities in Australian industry.

“This capability is the result of an innovation journey with Army and the Defence Innovation Hub and demonstrates the importance of collaboration between Defence and industry on capability development.” (Source: Defence Connect)

31 Aug 23. Zelensky decries ‘systemic corruption’ in military service exemptions. Ukraine’s president decried what he described as “systematic corruption” in medical exemptions given to people avoiding military service, saying the system was subject to bribes and mass departures abroad. Ukraine has made a crackdown on graft a priority as it presses on with a counteroffensive 18 months into Russia’s invasion. Uprooting corruption is also a key element in the country’s bid to join the European Union.

Volodymyr Zelensky said the National Security and Defence Council had considered data showing the extent of false exemptions, bribe-taking and flight abroad since the February 2022 invasion. The investigation of dubious medical exemptions was still being conducted, he said.

“There are examples of regions where the number of exemptions from military service due to medical commission decisions has increased tenfold since February last year,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

“It is absolutely clear what sort of decisions these are. Corrupt decisions.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

31 Aug 23. At a meeting in Kyiv earlier this week, BAE Systems announced it has established a local legal entity and signed agreements with the Ukrainian Government to ramp up the Company’s support to Ukraine’s armed forces and to explore the supply of light guns to Ukraine.

BAE Systems originally manufactured much of the equipment that governments have provided to Ukraine. Working with neighbouring NATO countries, the Company is currently providing support, training and repairs to the Ukrainian armed forces.

The first agreement reinforces BAE Systems’ support to Ukraine. It paves the way for the Company to work alongside Armed Forces Ukraine (AFU) to understand and support its future force structure and capability requirements and to help revitalise Ukraine’s industrial base. The second agreement builds on that support and creates a framework for BAE Systems to work directly with Ukraine to explore potential partners and how it could ultimately facilitate the production of 105mm Light Guns in the country. BAE Systems has set up a local entity ready to support such aspirations.

These agreements come days after Ukraine and Sweden signed a statement of intent to strengthen cooperation in production, operation, training, and servicing of the CV90 platform, which is currently manufactured by BAE Systems’ Hägglunds business in Sweden.

Charles Woodburn, Chief Executive, BAE Systems, said: “Alongside our government customers, we’ve been discussing with President Zelenskyy and his team as to how to best evolve the support that we’re already providing to Ukraine. Signing the agreements and establishing a legal entity in Ukraine builds on our existing trust and support and paves the way for us to work together to provide more direct support to the Ukrainian armed forces.”

Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industry, added: “I am grateful to BAE Systems for the bold decision to stand side by side with us in the fight against Russian aggression and building the future of the Ukrainian defence industry. Together with the company, we will be able to localize the production of advanced weapons.”

31 Aug 23. Minister Černochová at FAC Defense in Toledo: We plan to deliver more combat helicopters to Ukraine. In Toledo, Spain, an informal meeting of defense ministers of the EU countries (FAC Defence) took place yesterday and today. On the agenda was further support for Ukraine, a discussion on the global impact of Russian aggression and the security situation in Africa and the Western Balkans.

Defense Minister Jana Černochová also met Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson during the meeting. The main topics of the meeting were the operation of JAS-39 Gripen aircraft in service with the ACR and the expansion of cooperation in support of Ukraine. With her Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto, she then signed the so-called Letter of Intent, which opens up the possibility of further strengthening cooperation between the Czech Republic and Italy in connection with the F-35 aircraft, not only in the field of defense, but also for the Czech industry, if the government approves the purchase of these aircraft machines for the Czech Republic.

We will continue to support Ukraine

The Czech Republic has been one of the most prominent supporters of Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict and intends to continue to do so. The effort to provide maximum assistance to this country is also documented by the agreements signed in the past months, which address, among other things, the repair and maintenance of weapons, their development, and the modernization and repair of armored equipment.

Help with training is also significant. By the end of this year, up to 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers should be trained in the Czech Republic as part of the EUMAM mission. Czechs train units up to battalion and specialist level. The Army of the Czech Republic also sends mobile training teams to Poland. “In 2024, we plan to continue training and also increase the capabilities of our mobile training teams,” the Minister of Defense said.

Helicopter deliveries and pilot training

According to Minister Černochová, the most important security guarantees for Ukraine include, in addition to training, the long-term supply of weapons and support for integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Therefore, the Czech Republic continues not only the supply of heavy equipment and air defense equipment: “We are currently planning to supply additional combat helicopters and we are also examining the possibilities of contributing to the training of Ukrainian pilots for F-16 aircraft, possibly also for other platforms,” the minister revealed.

EPF and bilateral aid must not compete with each other

The EU defense ministers also discussed additional financing of support from the EPF chapter, i.e. the European Peace Facility. It was established two years ago as an extra-budgetary fund for the purpose of financing EU activities within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy aimed at preserving peace, preventing conflicts and strengthening international security.

The EPF also financially compensates military aid to Ukraine to those member states that participate in it. The Czech Republic has so far received EUR 14.7 m from the EPF in two payments, further amounts will be paid to it gradually in the following years.

According to the Minister of Defense, sustainability and predictability are key in the financing of military support to Ukraine. “It is necessary to consider the overall form of our support and the preferred procedure of individual member countries. This means ensuring that bilateral activities on the one hand and EPF measures on the other reinforce and do not compete with each other.”

Watch out for Russia’s influence in the Sahel

Russian aggression does not only affect events in Ukraine and the adjacent region. The defense ministers of the EU countries, with the participation of representatives of NATO and the UN, therefore also discussed the security situation in the Sahel and the Balkans during the meeting.

The situation in the Sahel has been tense in recent months, military coups have taken place in a number of countries. According to Defense Minister Jana Černochová, the only way is to reduce Russia’s influence in the Sahel. “Recent events in Niger have shown once again that we as a Western community have repeatedly failed in this task. Now it is crucial that we do not push Niger into Russian hands,” she said. According to her, the European community must also pay attention to the Western Balkans. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Czech Ministry of Defence)

30 Aug 23. The Signing of the Letter of Intent on the Establishment of the F-16 Pilot Training Center. In the context of the informal meeting of EU Defence Ministers held in Toledo, Spain, the Minister of National Defence, Angel Tîlvăr, signed on Tuesday, August 29, the Letter of Intent between the Romanian Ministry of National Defence, the Defence Ministry of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Lockheed Martin Company regarding the F-16 Pilot Training Center in Romania.

“The Letter of Intent that I have signed concerns the establishment of the F-16 Pilot Training Center in Romania, an initiative designed to support the development of the Romanian pilots’ skills with respect to operating the F-16 aircraft, in the performance of a wide spectrum of strategic missions.

“Through this center, Romania commits to provide a high-quality training environment, with access to technical resources and state-of-the-art know-how not only for the Romanian pilots, but also for those from the Allied and partner states, including Ukraine” the Minister of National Defence stated.

In order to implement this project, the Royal Netherlands Air Force will contribute by deploying some F-16 aircraft to the 86th Air Base, thus facilitating the effective training of the [Ukrainian] pilots. Lockheed Martin will also provide the highest-level technical support through flight instructors and technical-engineering personnel. This solid cooperation ensures complex training, in accordance with the international standards.

The F-16 Pilot Training Center will become a relevant regional center, a fact already consolidated by the signing of the Joint Declaration during the Vilnius NATO Summit, in July 2023. Through this agreement, Romania joins other Allied nations, such as Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, in supporting the training of Ukrainian pilots for the future use of the F-16 aircraft.

“I express my hope that the F-16 Pilot Training Center in Romania will demonstrate its strategic importance, meeting the complex security requirements established by Romania and its Allies and partners from the region.

“This joint effort consolidates Romania’s position as a regional leader in the training of F-16 pilots, contributing to the Alliance cohesion, demonstrating unity and strengthening the Euro-Atlantic defence,” Minister Angel Tîlvăr said.

Not only does this project underline Romania’s commitment to collective security, but also reflects the solid support provided to our partners. Through the F-16 Pilot Training Center, Romania consolidates its role as a security provider, by substantially contributing to supporting Ukraine’s capabilities in the collective efforts made for stability and security. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Romania Ministry of Defence;)

30 Aug 23. Russia says it foiled major Ukrainian drone attack. Russia said it foiled one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks to date on western Russia on Wednesday, shooting down unmanned aircraft over at least six regions, and destroyed a Ukrainian naval attack on the annexed Crimean peninsula. Russian military aircraft were damaged and civilian aviation was disrupted in the drone attacks, said Russian officials, citing Pskov, Bryansk, Kaluga, Orlov, Ryazan and Moscow regions as targeted. The most significant attack appeared to be in Pskov about 660 km (411 miles) north of the Ukrainian frontier, near the borders with Estonia and Latvia, where Russian officials said four Il-76 military transport planes were damaged.

Ukraine, which has yet to achieve a major success in its summer ground counteroffensive, has struck deep into Russia in recent months, including an attack on the Kremlin in May and numerous drone attacks on civilian targets in Moscow.

Ukraine typically does not comment on who is behind attacks on Russian territory, although officials have publicly expressed satisfaction over them.

Footage published by Pskov’s governor on Telegram showed smoke rising from a large fire as the sounds of sirens and an explosion ring out. Other reports on Telegram channels showed anti-aircraft systems in action around the city, which is just 32km (20 miles) east of the Estonian border.

Tass news agency, quoting emergency services, said four Il-76 transport aircraft, long the workhorse of the Russian military, were damaged at the military airfield. Two of the planes “burst into flames”, it added.

Civilian flights were cancelled at the local airport. The airspace around Moscow’s Vnukovo airport was closed briefly, TASS reported.

Russia said Ukrainian drones tried to attack a TV tower over the Bryansk region. No casualties were reported.

A Russian aircraft also destroyed four Ukrainian fast-attack boats carrying up to 50 paratroopers in an operation on the Black Sea, the military said.

Russia launched air attacks of its own on Wednesday morning, killing at least two people in Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Reuters was not able to independently verify the reports and there was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

MORE US AID

The drone attacks came as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new package of military assistance to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in Feb. 2022.

The package includes additional mine-clearing equipment, missiles for air defence, plus ammunition for artillery and small arms, Blinken said in a statement.

Ukraine is using vast amounts of ammunition in some of the heaviest fighting of the war as its presses its summer counter-offensive in the south and east, where Russian forces are deeply entrenched.

On Tuesday the Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was buried in a leafy cemetery on the outskirts of St Petersburg, six days after he was killed in an unexplained plane crash north of Moscow.

Prigozhin, two top lieutenants of his Wagner group and four bodyguards were among 10 people who died when his Embraer Legacy 600 private jet crashed in unexplained circumstances on Aug. 23.

He died two months after staging a brief mutiny against the Russian defence establishment, in the biggest challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s rule since he rose to power in 1999.

Moscow says it is investigating the crash and has denied any involvement, but in Washington White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre gave her strongest statement yet about the possibility that Putin directed the killing.

“We all know that the Kremlin has a long history of killing opponents,” she said. “It’s very clear what happened here.”

Russia informed Brazil’s aircraft investigation authority that it would not probe the crash of the Brazilian-made Embraer (EMBR3.SA) jet under international rules “at the moment”, the Brazilian agency told Reuters on Tuesday. Russia’s aviation authority is not obligated to follow international investigation protocols as the flight from Moscow to St Petersburg was domestic. (Source: Reuters)

29 Aug 23. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s forty-fifth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. It includes additional air defense and artillery munitions, mine clearing equipment, medical vehicles, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression on the battlefield and protect its people.

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $250 m, include:

AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
Mine clearing equipment;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
Hydra-70 Rockets;
Over 3m rounds of small arms ammunition;
Armored medical treatment vehicles and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

This security assistance package will utilize assistance previously authorized under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for Ukraine that remained after the PDA revaluation process concluded in June.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements. (Source: U.S. DoD)

29 Aug 23. Use nuclear strike to stop Ukraine’s counter-offensive, says former Russian general. A former Russian general has called for a tactical nuclear strike in southern Ukraine after Kyiv’s forces were said to be gaining a foothold near some of Moscow’s weakest defences in the area.

Pro-Kremlin MP Andrey Gurulev, 55, a retired lieutenant-general, urged Russian military leaders to target the Zaporizhzhia region village of Robotyne recently recaptured by Kyiv.

“The village of Rabotino is an ideal place for the use of tactical nuclear weapons,” Mr Gurulev said.

“They [Ukrainians] have all gathered there in one place… It’s just perfect.”

Ukraine celebrated the tiny settlement’s liberation on Monday at the culmination of an 11-week battle on the southern front line.

On Tuesday, Kyiv’s military announced its troops had made further progress around Verbove, around seven miles to the east, in their push southwards towards the Sea of Azov.

The latest assault appeared to be targeting a Russian anti-tank ditch between the two villages of Robotyne and Verbove.

Images captured from a Nasa satellite showed burn marks close to the trench and nearby concrete dragon’s teeth anti-tank barricades.

Ukraine’s general staff said its forces had “achieved success… within the recaptured frontiers” and were hitting enemy targets with artillery fire.

Enemy closing in

Russian sources warned that their enemy was slowly closing in on one of Moscow’s main lines of defence in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.

One prominent pro-Kremlin military blogger, Romanov, described the situation in the area as “very dangerous” in a post on the Telegram messaging app on Tuesday.

WarGonzo, another blogger, who has more than a m subscribers, voiced concerns over the vulnerabilities of Russian positions along the defensive lines between Robotyne and Verbove if Ukraine continues to push in the area.

Success around Verbove would hand Kyiv’s forces a wider wedge of territory as they attempt to push towards the Russian-occupied Tokmak, a key road and rail hub.

Western analysts have suggested Ukraine was pushing to find a potential weakness in Russia’s “Surovikin Line”, the main chain of fortifications protecting its land bridge to Crimea.

The defensive line west of Verbove appeared to be “in a significantly worse state” than other areas across the heavily-fortified southern front line, Emil Kastehelmi, an open source intelligence analyst, said.

‘No covered firing positions’

A comparison of satellite images taken at the beginning and end of August appeared to show “almost no signs of any trench improvements”, he added.

“There are sections with no covered firing positions and very few accommodation bunkers, even though great effort was put into this in other places.”

Ukraine’s advance has been slow through the southern region as its forces attempt to fight through the Russian fortifications.

Minefields that stretch for more than half a mile each were blamed for much of the damage dealt to Western-donated tanks and armoured vehicles used by Kyiv’s men.

In the 13 weeks since Ukraine launched its counter-offensive, its forces have lost five of the 71 German-made Leopard 2 tanks, Forbes reported.

Meanwhile, a senior Ukrainian official announced the mandatory evacuation of children from several villages close to the front lines in Zaporizhzhia.

Yuri Malashko, head of the region’s military administration, said: “There are 54 children and 67 accompanying family members. That is 121 people that need to be evacuated.”

“There are on average of 90 to 120 attacks per day, and these are the settlements that are constantly under fire. Given the fact that our information campaign that was constantly conducted did not give results, and due to the unconsciousness and negligence of parents, children suffered first of all, we decided that a decision should be made on mandatory evacuation,” he added. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

29 Aug 23. DOD Maintains Readiness as U.S. Assists Ukraine. Through coordination with allies, the defense industrial base in the U.S. has been effective in leveraging every tool available to field those capabilities needed by Ukraine on the battlefield while managing the risks to U.S. readiness, said the Pentagon’s top acquisition official.

William A. LaPlante said his office has coordinated closely with industry leaders to shorten the lead time required to finalize contracts for new materials for Ukraine.

“And those numbers are really collapsing,” he said, adding that doing so requires attention from top leaders.

Speaking Monday at the National Defense Industrial Association’s emerging technologies conference, LaPlante said the Defense Department remains committed to supporting Ukraine in defending itself against Russia’s unprovoked invasion while maintaining U.S. military readiness.

“Every day, this is the job of the senior leadership in the Pentagon and across the national security staff,” LaPlante said. “You’re always looking at Ukraine and saying, ‘Where is the puck going to be?’ and trying to predict it.”

The Biden administration has committed more than $43 bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Every item that is decided and taken from the U.S. stock and provided to the Ukrainians, the chairman and secretary go through it, and they look exactly at what is the effect for readiness. And if they think it’s any impact, negative on readiness, or increases risk … we won’t do it.”

That assistance has included more than 2,000 Stinger antiaircraft systems, more than 10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems, more than 2 m 155-mm artillery rounds, and other items.

The assistance has been provisioned through drawdowns of existing U.S. stocks and through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, the authority under which the U.S. procures capabilities from industry and partners.

LaPlante said Pentagon leaders are closely monitoring U.S. readiness in the process.

“Every item that is decided and taken from the U.S. stock and provided to the Ukrainians, the chairman and secretary go through it, and they look exactly at what is the effect for readiness,” he said. “And if they think it’s any impact, negative on readiness, or increases risk … we won’t do it.”

“So, by definition, if it’s taken out of drawdown, the assessment’s been made we can do it and we can manage the risk,” he said.

In response to the effort to assist Ukraine, the U.S. has ramped up production of key artillery rounds used most by Ukraine in in defending its territory against the invading Russian forces.

Earlier this month, Douglas R. Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, said the U.S. is currently producing new artillery rounds at a rate of 24,000 per month and is on track to produce more than 80,000 rounds per month over the following year.

During the conference, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks unveiled a DOD initiative to field thousands of autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next 18 to 24 months as part of the Pentagon’s strategy to counter the China’s rapid buildup of its armed forces.

Hicks said as China focuses on the sheer mass of its military, the U.S. will “out-match adversaries by out-thinking, out-strategizing and out-maneuvering them,” under a strategy dubbed the replicator initiative.

“Replicator is meant to help us overcome the PRC’s biggest advantage, which is mass,” she said. “More ships. More missiles. More people.”

Hicks said the replicator initiative will prioritize the fielding of “attritable” capabilities—platforms that are unmanned and built affordably, allowing commanders to tolerate a higher degree of risk in employing them.

Through the initiative, the U.S. will augment its manufacturing and mobilization capabilities “with our real comparative advantage, which is the innovation and spirit of our people,” she said.

LaPlante said the replicator initiative represents a bold approach to addressing the pressing challenge posed by China.

“What really is exciting about that announcement, is now we’re talking about doing something at scale,” LaPlante said of the replicator initiative. “We’re not just talking about doing something fast. We’re not just talking about doing something with a new acquisition authority.”

“We’re saying we’re going to field it at scale,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

29 Aug 23. Vladimir Putin did not attend a private funeral held in St Petersburg for the Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin who died in a plane crash last week. The Kremlin on Tuesday said Russia’s president would not go to the ceremony commemorating the Wagner leader who launched a mutiny in June that represented the biggest challenge in decades to Putin’s rule. “The president’s presence is not envisaged,” spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in response to a reporter’s question. Peskov added the Kremlin would not be issuing any information about the funeral. “Anyway, it’s relatives and loved ones who make decisions on these matters. Here, we cannot say anything without them,” he said. Pro-Wagner Telegram channels reported that just a few dozen people attended the burial — with no Wagner fighters in attendance. Footage posted on social media and in local news sites showed wreaths and bouquets of red roses lying on a fresh grave with a plaque bearing Prigozhin’s name and the years 1961-2023. There was a framed photo of the late mercenary chief in his military garb and medals, along with a framed excerpt from the Joseph Brodsky poem “Still Life”. Local media reports from Porokhovskoye showed armed security officials standing outside the cemetery entrance where barricades and metal detectors had been erected. Passers-by were not allowed to enter, the outlets reported. The manner of the internment would indicate the fall from grace of a convicted thief who rose from hot dog seller to become the owner of one of Putin’s preferred St Petersburg restaurants and a Kremlin caterer with links to the upper echelons of power. (Source: FT.com)

29 Aug 23. Germany arrests alleged Russia drone supplier Waldemar W is accused of providing components for Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles used by Russian forces in Ukraine Fragments being shown in Kyiv from an unmanned aerial vehicle that was used by Russia against Ukraine. A German businessman has been detained for allegedly providing electrical components to Russia that were used to make Orlan-10 drones deployed in the war in Ukraine, in a case that highlights the problem of sanctions evasion by western technology firms. Waldemar W, a German citizen of Russian origin, was remanded in custody after federal prosecutors obtained an arrest warrant in an investigation where he is suspected of violating Germany’s law on foreign trade, said the country’s attorney-general on Tuesday. The case underscores the mounting scrutiny that western exports of high-tech goods to Russian firms have been subjected to since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Investigators are increasingly focusing on the use of third countries to get around export bans aimed at starving Vladimir Putin’s military of the products it needs to sustain its war against Ukraine.

Prosecutors said Waldemar W — German authorities never divulge the surname of suspects in criminal cases — ran two companies in the western state of Saarland that deal in electronic components. They said that in 26 instances between January 2020 and March 2023, he exported such components to a company in Russia that produced military gear and materiel, including the Orlan-10 drones currently being deployed by Russia in Ukraine. They said the components he sold, with a total value of about €715,000, were an integral part of the Orlans and are on the EU’s list of sanctioned goods. A study by the Royal United Services Institute from late last year called the Orlan-10 Russia’s “most successful UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle)”, describing it as a “platform that sits at the heart of the country’s warfighting capabilities”. It said it enabled the Russian army to “rain accurate fire down on Ukrainian formations”. Rusi said Russian companies closely associated with the St Petersburg-based Special Technology Centre, the Russian manufacturer of the Orlan-10, had “drastically increased imports of critical Western-manufactured components” since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The German prosecutors’ statement said Waldemar W evaded EU sanctions by importing the goods from abroad and then exporting them to Russia through a company he controlled in the southern German state of Baden-Württemberg. The components were sent to two dummy civilian companies registered in Russia, which then passed them on to an arms manufacturer, in close consultation with the accused. Recommended War in Ukraine Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps — latest updates Prosecutors said that after the start of the Ukraine war, the accused started to send the goods to Russia with the help of sham beneficiary companies in third countries such as Dubai and Lithuania. The US and EU have also pushed countries like the UAE to halt exports of critical goods to Russia, amid fears they were becoming hubs for the shipment of items that could be repurposed to help Russia’s war effort. In June the EU adopted a new sanctions package against Russia that was in part aimed at clamping down on widespread sanctions evasion through third countries. The new anti-circumvention framework allowed the EU to prohibit exports of sensitive dual-use and high-tech goods and technology to third countries that had been identified as having persistently failed to prevent supplies of such goods from the EU to Russia. (Source: FT.com)

29 Aug 23. Ukraine Attacks Planes at Kursk Airfield with Paper Drones. On the night of 26-27 August, the military counterintelligence service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) struck Russian Su-30 and MiG-29 aircraft, as well as S-300s and Pantsirs, at the Russian military airfield in Kursk with 16 drones. Ukrainska Pravdaʼs sources indicate that kamikaze drones attacked four Su-30 and one MiG-29 aircraft. Also, S-300 radars and two Pantsirs are among the struck targets. SSU reported that almost all the drones reached their targets.

The Russians recorded at least 13 explosions, the source said. But the exact aftermath of the attack will be known “soon”. Counterintelligence officers clarified that the attack was organised by military counterintelligence officers from the 13th Main Directorate of the SSU.

Ukrainian forces reportedly used SYPAQ Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System, or PPDS, drones as loitering munitions to carry out an attack on an undisclosed Russian airfield.

The SYPAQ PPDS drone boasts an operational range of up to 120 kilometers (74 miles), 3 kilograms of payload, and a cruise speed of 60 kilometers per hour (37 miles per hour).

But what makes the PPDS stand out is that it is primarily made from a material similar to cardboard. It is a low-cost, expendable platform that can be transported as a small package and assembled rapidly with minimal tools. Its composition also makes it harder to detect by radar systems.

In May 2023, the Melbourne-based company reported having delivered the system to Ukraine.

“It is an honour to be supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” SYPAQ CEO Amanda Holt said at the time. “PPDS is an Australian capability that will help the Ukrainian people defend their country.” (Source: UAS VISION/aerotime;yahoo! news)

29 Aug 23. Defence Medical Services surgeons train Ukrainian doctors. Leading military trauma surgeons from Defence Medical Services and the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine shared their skills with Ukrainian medical personnel. Lieutenant Colonel James Baden, a specialist in reconstructive surgery following combat injury, led the UK team delivering training to six Ukrainian medical professionals. The Ukrainian cohort, a mix of military and civilians, underwent training in reconstructive surgery techniques. The training was held in the Freeman Hospital and Royal Victoria Infirmary, Newcastle, where surgical operations could be observed in an NHS theatre. Further training will be taking place at the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine (RCDM), based at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham, where injured military personnel evacuated from overseas are treated. Major General Tim Hodgetts CB CBE, UK Surgeon General and Chair of the Committee of Surgeon Generals in NATO, said: “Sharing medical skills and expertise amongst allies is the right thing to do. Both military and civilians injured in Ukraine have similar injury patterns, so sharing the expertise to enhance all patient outcomes equally is also right in this circumstance. Military and Civil collaboration is at the very heart of NATO’s new Medical Support Capstone Concept. I am hugely impressed by the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Medical Services, their valour, and their dedication to saving lives in the most challenging of circumstances. In an increasingly abstract world dominated by digital and technology innovation, we still need surgeons with exquisite practical skills to treat the complex and disfiguring wounds of physical combat.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

29 Aug 23. Norway Will Lead Defence Materiel Cooperation in Ukraine. Norway entered into an agreement with Ukraine to support the development of a Ukrainian defence material organisation in March 2023. Norway will now also lead the work at a strategic level in NATO, which coordinates the efforts to develop the defence material work between allied nations and Ukraine. The sector will be developed in the direction of western standards and working methods.

NATO has implemented a review of what the alliance can contribute within defence procurement in Ukraine. The review will be completed during the year and it will formulate concrete measures financed by one of NATO’s support funds. The work Norway will coordinate within NATO, and the bilateral initiative Norway has implemented with the Ukrainian defence material organization will be coordinated.

The agreement Norway entered into with Ukraine in March has proved interesting also for others, and now Great Britain and Sweden have joined this work.

“There have been major challenges with corruption within defence procurement in Ukraine. Ever since NATO asked Norway for help in 2014, we have supported Ukraine by building integrity into laws, rules and procedures for good defence procurement,” says Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Norwegian Ministry of Defence)

29 Aug 23. Study: China Main Supplier of Critical Components for Russian Drones. China is the main supplier of critical components for Russian drones used against Ukraine, The International Working Group on Russian Sanctions reports.

The group is co-chaired by Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and former U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Russia relies heavily on foreign-made components, especially microelectronics in three of the drone models used to attack Ukraine. According to the study, 67% of drone component shipments come from China, while 17% of them are going through Hong Kong to Russia. Turkey and The United Arab Emirates account for 5% and 2% of the components, respectively.

Components made in Japan, the Republic of Korea, Switzerland and other countries, including processors, chips, transistors, and other vital components, were also found in the drones.

“Russia is extremely active in using drones for massive attacks on infrastructure, civilian and military targets in Ukraine, so it is very disturbing to see that important components for the production of hostile UAVs come from different countries, including Ukraine’s allies. This issue requires our joint immediate response. We have to take comprehensive measures to prevent the aggressor from using critical components to continue hostilities on Ukrainian soil,” noted Yermak.

The group’s experts called on manufacturers to do more to prevent Russia from accessing their products while bypassing economic sanctions.

It also recommended that governments investigate well-known companies that do not comply with the sanctions policy.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Voice of America News)

29 Aug 23. Viktor Zhora, the public face of Ukraine’s success against Russian cyber attacks, received a hero’s welcome earlier this month on stage at Black Hat, the world’s biggest cyber security gathering, in Las Vegas. “The adversary has trained us a lot since 2014”, the year that Russia annexed Crimea, said the deputy chair at Ukraine’s special communication and information protection service. “We evolved by the time of the full-scale invasion [in February last year] when cyber became a major component of hybrid warfare.” At an event where IT professionals asked for selfies and one man cried on his shoulder, Zhora also shared a fist-bump with Jen Easterly, the director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency. “We take a huge page out of Ukraine’s playbook,” she said. “We’ve probably learned as much from you as you are learning from us.” But away from the spotlight, the event’s delegates argued that the US and its allies that have helped to fund Ukraine’s cyber-defences have failed to reflect on Kyiv’s experience. Cyber executives told the Financial Times that the west is struggling to replicate the collaborative methods that had proved successful in the conflict, complaining they are instead mired in regulatory and legal roadblocks that thwart fast-moving responses that require open sharing of often sensitive or embarrassing information. “There is a reality that exists in Ukraine that I don’t think most of the west can really put themselves in,” said Matt Olney, director of threat intelligence and interdiction for Cisco Systems. Olney recounted a time when Cisco, which has been involved in Ukraine for more than a decade, sparked confusion and outrage from US authorities with a proposal for a radical security upgrade to a state’s election system. “This is war,” Olney’s Ukrainian colleague explained to the state official when asked how Kyiv would respond to such demands. “I say do it, and they do it.” The US and its allies in Europe and Asia are already engaged in low-level cyber aggression and espionage against Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Despite attempts to block them, Russian and Chinese government-backed hackers regularly break into western systems, carrying out disinformation and spying campaigns. Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency, says, ‘We take a huge page out of Ukraine’s playbook’ © Dragonflypd.com/Black Hat Last month when the State Department discovered that emails of officials focused on China had been hacked, authorities claimed they had received inadequate information. This prompted Oregon Senator Ron Wyden to request federal probes to push Microsoft, which runs the State Department’s emails, to share more technical data behind the breach. Similarly, authorities in the UK took 10 months to inform ms of its citizens on the electoral register that their data had been exposed to a group of as-yet unidentified hackers that could have been working on behalf of another country. Olney and others say that, when these breaches are uncovered, the targeted businesses and government agencies are slow to share that information, including critical technical data that would unmask similar hacking attempts elsewhere. “I’m in favour of radical transparency,” said John Shier, a senior executive at Sophos, the UK-based cyber security company. “That’s when we can be more proactive. That’s when we can make sure we know somebody else is going through the same thing that you’re going through, and you can band together and make sure that you both get through as unscathed as possible.” One stumbling block is the US government’s categorisation of certain details as classified. Robert Lee, who runs cyber security company Dragos, said he has been involved in cases that were not immediately disclosed because the information was classified. “There’s some truth,” he added, in the “idea that asset owners and operators are just keeping it quiet”. Another problem is the reluctance of listed companies to disclose potentially damaging information for fear of the impact on their share price, which has prompted the US to work on legislation to deal with the issue. The Chamber of Commerce is disputing new rules from the Stock Exchange Commission that will require publicly traded firms to disclose material breaches within four days. Several agencies meanwhile have overlapping authority, “creating chaos” rather than being disciplined, said Lee. “You’ve got the FBI and DHS and CISA tripping over each other yelling at each other,” said Lee. “And the inter-agency [fights] behind the scenes [are] about 10,000 times worse than whatever gets made public.” At a bar at the conference, an official from the US defence department pulled up a chair to a group of cyber security professionals and asked why the US has not been hit with complex, simultaneous attacks. The official replied to his own question: “Deterrence as defence. They know we are in their systems too and, if they hit us here, we turn the lights off in Moscow.” Easterly, the CISA director, acknowledged that progress on transparency was still under way but the fear of tit-for-tat attacks had held some chaos at bay. “There is some fear of escalation,” she said. “Are there still people who are going to their lawyers first and foremost? Yes. But we’re starting to break through on the understanding of a threat to one is a threat to all.” (Source: FT.com)

29 Aug 23. EU funding to shore up Ukraine is being held up by fractious disagreements among member states, with worries about strained national budgets and rising costs in Brussels threatening the flow of financial support to Kyiv. Brussels’ requests for a total of €86bn in additional funding, aimed at easing strains on the EU budget while locking in four years of support to Ukraine, have divided member states and led to calls for reductions and a longer approval timetable, according to people involved in talks. The debate is a key test of western resolve over Ukraine, as war sceptics in Europe and the US begin to point to the limited gains made by Kyiv’s summer counteroffensive against Russia. The latest round of US funding for Ukraine may also face a tricky path through Capitol Hill amid rising concerns about the war and broader disputes over government spending. Brussels proposed the latest package of financing for Ukraine to stretch over four years, in part to insulate Kyiv from political volatility. EU ministers will restart consultations today after their summer break, with support for Ukraine top of the agenda at meetings of defence and foreign ministers. So far, funding negotiations have been complicated by the European Commission bundling together financial support for Ukraine with top-up requirements for the EU budget, including provisions to cover debt interest costs and a salary increase for EU officials. Many member states have said that while the extra financial support for Ukraine is reasonable, the other elements of the package are the result of an internal EU budget management issue that does not merit additional funds. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, front centre right, shakes hands with then Cyprus president Nicos Anastasiades at an EU summit of European leaders in Brussels in February © Virginia Mayo/AP Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have led the resistance, arguing that national budgetary belt-tightening owing to rising interest rates and wage demands should also be reflected in Brussels. “The timing is not opportune,” said one senior EU diplomat. “Governments are having to make difficult decisions themselves and now Brussels asks them to contribute more.” “Frankly, ‘Brussels needs our money to increase Commission salaries in line with inflation’ is not a great domestic political platform for a national leader to take,” they added. The dispute sets the stage for what is expected to be one of the most fraught EU negotiations of the remainder of this year. In June, the commission laid out a €66bn top-up for the 2021-27 budget, which was funded by member states. Brussels has separately proposed €20bn for weapons supplies to Ukraine. The €66bn includes almost €19bn to cover unexpectedly high interest costs on joint EU borrowing, about €2bn for administration cost increases including salary increases for officials, €15bn for expenses related to rising migration and funding for external countries, and €10bn for initiatives including a new innovation fund. This top-up to the multiannual financial framework (MFF) also includes €17bn in grants for Kyiv and is supplemented by a package of €33bn in loans. Together this €50bn package over four years aims to give the country longer-term budget stability, an approach Brussels has encouraged other donors to adopt. (Source: FT.com)

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