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Military And Security Developments
Feb.17.
Moldova: New pro-EU government sworn in; Russian destabilisation efforts likely to intensify. On 16 February, Moldova’s parliament approved the new pro-Western government, led by the recently appointed prime minister Dorin Recean. Recean was sworn in after gaining the backing of 62 deputies from the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). However, the Russian-friendly Şor Party, which is planning to rally in front of parliament on 19 February, boycotted the session. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu nominated pro-EU Recean as prime minister following the resignation of Natalia Gavrilița, and comes after Sandu accused Moscow of plotting to overthrow the government. Efforts by opposition groups to undermine the government will drive internal security concerns as the country grapples with pursuing its pro-Western trajectory versus maintaining ties with Russia. While Recean’s appointment sends a positive signal that Chișinău is determined to integrate with the West, a move by the new government to apply for NATO membership could accelerate Russian destabilisation efforts later this year.• BAKHMUT: Heavy fighting remains ongoing across the Bakhmut line, with Russian forces making incremental gains. Over the last 24-48 hours, fighting has remained particularly heavy around the village of Paraskoviivka, three miles (5km) north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made marginal advances near the village and are attempting to attack it from two directions, while Ukrainian special forces are supporting its defence. On 16 February, Kyiv reiterated calls for all remaining civilians in Bakhmut, estimated at around 6,000, to evacuate the town immediately, though it remains unclear when and if Kyiv will order a military withdrawal from the town.
• BAKHMUT: As the anniversary of the war approaches, Ukrainian forces will likely be under political pressure to deprive the Kremlin of a symbolic (if operationally limited) victory for Putin’s 21 February speech. Given the overall pace of Russian advances, it remains unlikely that Russian forces will succeed in pushing Ukrainian forces out of the town if Kyiv is determined to continue the defence. It is also noteworthy that members of a Wagner Group artillery unit posted a video appeal on 16 February stating that they are ‘cut off’ from ammunition supplies. This indicates possible logistical issues at the front as well as ongoing efforts by Wagner to undermine the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and blame military setbacks on Moscow ‘bureaucracy’.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces are likely making the most steady progress along the north-western section of the frontline, though the overall pace of the Russian offensive remains slow. Earlier this week the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies reported that Russian forces had advanced to the Synkivka region and had entered Lyman Pershyi, seven miles (11km) north-east of Kupiansk. While we cannot confirm this, Russian forces have likely been making the most notable progress, if still relatively limited, at the north-western section of the Oskil-Kreminna line, south of Dvorichne. Assaults in this direction likely benefit from the relative proximity of the Russian international border – just 15 miles (24km) to the north – and more secure Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) as a result. Further south, the Centre for Defence Strategies has similarly reported that Russian forces succeeded in pushing Ukrainian forces back 0.5-1km near Kreminna, but when they achieved this remains unclear and unconfirmed.
• SOUTHERN: On 16 February the Russian MoD claimed that its forces had destroyed a Ukrainian vessel that had been attempting a sabotage operation across the Dnieper River. While unconfirmed, such cross-river reconnaissance and sabotage operations will continue on both sides for the foreseeable future, but neither side is likely to establish beachheads on the opposite sides of the river.
• CASUALTIES: UK Defence Intelligence estimated on 17 February that Russian regular and private military contractor (PMC) forces have likely suffered between 175-200,000 casualties during the last year of war, including approximately 40-60,000 killed. Defence Intelligence also assessed that Russian casualty rates have increased significantly following the partial mobilisation in September 2022, reflecting Russia’s increasing reliance upon poorly trained (and in many instances poorly utilised) mobilised reservists. Artillery has almost certainly inflicted the highest number of casualties on Russian forces. For comparison, the Soviet Union suffered around 15,000 casualties total during nine years of war in Afghanistan. However, despite the high casualty rates currently being sustained in Ukraine, Moscow is prepared to lose significantly higher numbers of troops as it doubles down on a protracted, attritional war. There are limited indications to suggest that public backlash to the growing casualty rates will threaten the Kremlin’s ability to continue the war in the short to medium term.
• STRIKES: This morning (17 February), the Russian governor of occupied Crimea reported that Russian air defences shot down a Ukrainian drone near a power station in Sevastopol. Two further drones were also shot down over Crimea on 15-16 February, with a large explosion recorded in Armyansk, north of Crimea on 16 February. While the drones reportedly caused no damage to the Sevastopol plant, it remains a realistic possibility that these drone attacks were reconnaissance operations in anticipation of high-profile Ukrainian raids into Crimea to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion on 24 February. Much emphasis is placed on Russian plans for the anniversary, but as we have previously assessed, Kyiv is also likely preparing operations to provide a propaganda boost to the population amid the anticipated Russian strikes. This includes potentially long-range drone operations targeting Russian air bases deep into European Russia.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• ENERGY: The CEO of Ukraine’s national grid operator Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytskyi stated in an interview with Bloomberg on 16 February that the worst Russian attacks on the country’s energy systems are likely over. Kudrytskyi stated that during 15 mass attacks since September 2022, 40% of the country’s energy systems had been seriously impacted. However, as winter begins to draw to a close, the pressure on energy security is now set to ease, even amid continued Russian bombardments. Energy vulnerability and power outages are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, but rising temperatures will ease the pressure on the grid, limiting the scope for prolonged blackouts. Kudrytskyi also claimed that current infrastructure damage inflicted by strikes has reached a ‘plateau’ given Russia’s inability to generate a further deterioration of the energy situation, due in part to improved Ukrainian air defences.
• STRIKES: While Kudrytskyi warned against complacency, there are serious questions around Ukraine’s medium to longer-term air defence capabilities amid growing concerns over potential air defence missile shortages later this year, as we have previously assessed (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 18 November 2022). We still anticipate an intensification of Russian missile strikes during next week’s anniversary, and Russia is actively experimenting with ways to circumvent air defences – including balloon decoys, using ballistic trajectories and firing cruise missiles at night (as happened yesterday). For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 16 February 2023.
• NUCLEAR: A number of European diplomats reportedly told Politico on 16 February that the European Commission will not include sanctions against Russia’s nuclear sector in its upcoming tenth sanctions package, likely to be unveiled next week to mark the anniversary of the war. While unconfirmed, European officials have long raised questions about the practicality of sanctioning Russia’s nuclear sector given numerous member states’ reliance upon Rosatom-supplied technology, nuclear safety equipment and especially fuel for Soviet-designed nuclear power stations. Unnamed EU officials alleged that Hungary is blocking the proposal due to their specific reliance upon Rosatom.
• NUCLEAR: Russia’s nuclear industry already had over USD 100 billion of orders at various stages before the invasion last year, and despite wider international sanctions, orders for Russian nuclear technology, plants and fuel have increased by over 20% in 2022. In Europe, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia remain particularly reliant upon Rosatom technology and fuel, while Rosatom still provides one-fifth of US uranium needs for its plants. Such reliance makes effectively sanctioning and diversifying away from Russia’s nuclear industry very difficult, and such a step remains unlikely in the short term as a result.
FORECAST
NEGOTIATIONS: In an interview with the BBC on 16 February, President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out ceding any territory in a potential peace agreement with Moscow. Zelensky’s statement reflects Kyiv’s long-held position on peace negotiations, with Zelensky remaining determined to liberate all Ukrainian territory via military means. He claimed that any concession on land would mean Russia could ‘keep coming back’, and this ultimately aligns with our assessment of Russia’s long-term aims in Ukraine. The Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist objectives in Ukraine, despite the failures of the military to achieve them up until now.
Nevertheless, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated on 16 February that the Russo-Ukrainian war is likely to end at the negotiating table. He assessed that it is ‘almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means’, and that similarly, it will be ‘very, very difficult’ for Ukrainian forces to fully expel Russian forces from the occupied territories. This dynamic ultimately means that the war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with our own base case scenarios anticipating fighting to continue into 2024 as neither side is willing to compromise or able to tip the military balance decidedly in one or another’s favour.
While peace negotiations remain unlikely, lower-level talks continue to bear fruit following the latest prisoner exchange. On 16 February, the Ukrainian Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War confirmed that 10 Ukrainian military personnel and one civilian were exchanged for the same number of Russian prisoners in a one-for-one exchange. Backchannels and lower-level negotiations remain open. These will provide foundations for more substantial talks later down the line – but not in the short or even medium term.
The next test of negotiations and key milestone for cross-party discussions will be the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which expires on 18 March. A senior Ukrainian official confirmed this morning (17 February) that negotiations to extend the deal will begin next week and come amid allegations that Moscow is actively undermining procedures that are causing delays (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 14 February 2023).
Feb. 16.
*No Leopard 2 for Ukraine. European nations including Germany and Holland have withdrawn their pledges to supply Leopard 2 tanks including the advanced Leopard 2 7C. However, they will supply hundreds of Leopard 1s and Poland will supply t-72s. This will limit the scope of the forthcoming Ukraine Spring Offensive requiring 2 tank Battalions. One reason is belived to be the lack of industrial capability which has declined in Europe due to 20 years of Cold war peace.
• OFFENSIVES: On 15 February, the UK’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, reported that the UK has not observed Russia amassing ‘a single force to punch through in a big offensive’. As much as 97% of the Russian army is estimated to be already committed to operations in Ukraine. Wallace also estimated that two-thirds of Russia’s tanks have either been destroyed or are unusable. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) also estimated on 15 February that Russia has lost around 50% of its pre-war numbers of T-72Bs and T-72B3Ms; many T-80s have also been lost.
• OFFENSIVES: Wallace’s assessment aligns with our own; the Russo-Ukrainian war has been an attritional conflict for months, and Russia’s inability to replace large-scale mechanised forces will severely limit opportunities for sweeping manoeuvre operations like those conducted by Russian forces during the first phase of the war in early 2022. Russia’s spring offensive campaign will likely involve its forces increasing pressure along the Donbas frontlines in order to inflict heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces. However, Russia’s lack of manoeuvre units will hinder its ability to attempt flanking operations and/or to generate a breakthrough elsewhere along the front. Nevertheless, as previously assessed, supplementary offensives against Kharkiv oblast, or possibly Zaporizhzhia oblast, are realistic possibilities. However, Wallace’s assessment indicates that the UK does not believe Russia has sufficient reserves to open up a new front.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue to make incremental progress around Bakhmut, though many of the recent Russian claims of advances remain unconfirmed. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have interdicted the M-03 (E-40) highway north of Bakhmut, though geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces retain a foothold in the south-western outskirts of the village of Krasna Hora, located four miles (7km) north-east of Bakhmut. A senior Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) spokesperson claimed earlier on 16 February that Russian forces have now taken all the ‘heights’ around Bakhmut, and that Russia can now interdict all major roads in and out of the town.
• BAKHMUT: On 15 February, the Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated that it will possibly take Russian forces until March or April (i.e. an additional two months) to take Bakhmut. Prigozhin blamed the ‘monstrous bureaucracy’ of the Russian high command for the slow pace of advances – a direct and on-trend criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin’s statement clearly illustrates the friction between Wagner and regular Russian forces. We previously assessed that this dynamic is undermining command and control and unit cohesion with regard to co-ordinating offensive operations. Prigozhin’s personal influence over operations in Ukraine has diminished in the last month. However, his criticisms of the war effort have increased, and he frequently manages expectations with regard to future advances.
• BAKHMUT: The situation in and around Bakhmut is clearly deteriorating for Ukrainian forces; it is likely that Prigozhin’s intervention is partly aimed at undermining the MoD for political reasons, as much as a genuine reflection of Prigozhin’s pessimism over the pace of advances. Nevertheless, Russian forces have only managed to take around 500 square kilometres along the Bakhmut axis in over six months of heavy fighting. Kyiv’s determination to continue defending the town could yet deprive Moscow of a timely victory ahead of the anniversary of the war next week.
• WAGNER GROUP: Prigozhin also admitted that a cessation of the recruitment of prisoners will have an impact on Wagner Group’s battlefield capabilities. This likely reflects the group’s growing problems in replacing its losses, as Moscow has seemingly curtailed its primary source of recruits (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 9 February 2023). The Ukrainian deputy defence minister, Hanna Malyar, also claimed on 15 February that several Wagner Group assault units are losing up to 80% of their personnel around Bakhmut. While we cannot confirm this claim, various other indicators support the notion that Wagner forces are sustaining extremely high casualties. This is partly due to poorly trained and equipped human probing attacks conducted to draw out Ukrainian fire, whereafter more professional units are moved forward to take out identified Ukrainian positions. Such sacrificial units have allowed Wagner forces to infiltrate Ukrainian positions in and around Bakhmut. However, progress remains slow in this highly attritional urban fighting.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: The pace of Russian advances around Kreminna, Kupiansk and Svatove has likely remained very slow over the last 24-48 hours, with few confirmed advances. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) sources claim that Russian forces are making headway at various points of the line, including the village of Hryanykivka, located ten miles (16km) north-east of Kupiansk. However, Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Grouping of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on 15 February that Russian forces were at that time conducting no ground attacks in Kharkiv oblast. Further south, Russian forces have likely made marginal gains in the forested area near Dibrova, located six miles (9km) south-west of Kreminna. This is difficult to confirm due to the terrain.
• SOUTHERN: Beyond continual low-level reconnaissance operations along the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia lines, there is nothing significant to report.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: Numerous European countries are backtracking on previous pledges to supply Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, raising questions around the timescale and feasibility of Ukraine’s counter-offensive plans later this year. The German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, stated on 15 February that European states will not be able to supply two full battalions worth of Leopard 2s, as was previously promised. Many of the older 2A4 tanks which countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, Poland and Spain have pledged are in poor condition and will need extensive repairs, while Germany’s pledge of more advanced 2A6 Leopards ‘will not reach the size of a battalion’.
• AID: Pistorius’ announcement comes after the Netherlands and Denmark indicated earlier this week that they will not supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 main battle tanks, despite previously indicating that they would do so (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 15 February 2023). The Dutch government instead confirmed earlier on 16 February that it will supply ammunition and spare parts for Leopard 2s, rather than the tanks themselves. Pistorius also stated that the battalion of 2A4s will only arrive in Ukraine at the end of April, later than Kyiv had previously hoped. Delays to the transfers and a reduction in numbers will likely undermine Ukraine’s plans to integrate newly raised armoured battalions of Western tanks into its spring/summer counter-offensive operations. While Ukraine will likely still be able to build competent offensive forces using ex-Soviet and refurbished Leopard 1 tanks, the backtracking on pledges to deliver more advanced systems will likely limit Ukrainian offensive capabilities before the summer.
• GOVERNMENT: The Ukrainian defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, claimed that President Volodymyr Zelensky asked him to remain in post, despite earlier reports that he would soon be replaced following a major corruption scandal. Though this has yet to be confirmed, it is likely that Reznikov will stay in place given that Kyiv has yet to appoint a successor. It remains to be seen whether Reznikov remaining in post will exacerbate internal divisions within the government, the ruling Servant of the People party and/or the Ministry of Defence. However, continuity will mitigate any short-term upheaval within the ministry. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 6 February 2023.
• SANCTIONS: On 15 February, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen revealed the bloc’s tenth package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions include further export bans worth more than EUR 11 billion designed to deprive Russia’s economy of industrial goods, dual use goods and advance technology components. Von der Leyen also announced that for the first time Brussels would add third country entities to the Russia dual use sanctions, specifically seven Iranian entities. While said entities are now prohibited from selling items to aid Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, Tehran will nevertheless continue to expand its military co-operation with Moscow. Von der Leyen also announced Brussels’ intention to crack down further on oligarchs trying to disguise or sell their assets to evade sanctions, and that an overview will soon be organised to identify all frozen assets held by the Russian central bank across the EU. The latest sanctions demonstrate Brussels’ efforts to undermine Russia’s war machine by targeting sectors needed to sustain the war on the battlefield and in the information space. They reflect growing attempts to plug sanctions loopholes; these efforts are likely to gain traction throughout 2023.
• BELARUS: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated earlier on 16 February that his country would only enter the war if Ukraine (or neighbouring NATO states) directly attacked Belarus. Lukashenka has frequently accused Ukraine of planning to attack Belarus. This aligns with the Kremlin’s wider narrative that the Ukrainian Armed Forces pose a threat to all non-Ukrainian speaking Eastern Slavs. While Ukrainian officials have frequently expressed a desire to target Russian air bases and ballistic missile platforms, many of which are based in Belarus, it remains highly unlikely that Ukraine will initiate any cross-border escalation given that this would reduce forces available for any spring/summer counter-offensives later in 2023.
• BELARUS: Lukashenka is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 17 February. Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Secretary Danilov anticipates the meeting will be used by Putin to persuade Minsk to participate in the war directly. This is unlikely to happen. It remains in Russia’s interests to protect its air bases and missile platforms in Belarus from Ukrainian attacks. Furthermore, we have seen no indications of a sizeable build-up of forces that could seriously threaten Kyiv. In addition, Lukashenka extended an invitation to US President Joe Biden to attend a meeting in Minsk with Putin to ‘stop the war’, following Biden’s scheduled visit to Poland on 20-22 February. While Biden will evidently not attend such a meeting, the proposal reflects the framing of potential negotiations to end the war as a matter between Moscow and Washington DC, not Kyiv. Neither side is seriously proposing peace talks
• For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our Scenario Planning and Projections and Ukrainian Victory Scenarios and Implications reports.
FORECAST
STRIKES: Overnight on 16 February, Russian forces launched 36 air- and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at various targets across Ukraine. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny confirmed that 14 cruise missiles and two guided air-to-surface missiles were successfully interdicted. Notably, this represents a lower overall interdiction rate than during previous strikes.
While Ukrainian energy providers stated earlier on 16 February that the strikes had a limited impact on the country’s electricity grid, the targets which were hit include: Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast), Kropivnytskyi (Kirovohrad oblast), Lviv (Lviv oblast) and Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk oblast). It should also be noted that a fragment of a Russian missile landed inside Moldovan territory. This is the fourth time this has happened since the invasion, and aligns with our assessment that the Kremlin will continue using strikes in neighbouring Ukraine to destabilise Moldova.
The Ukrainian Air Force also confirmed that numerous Russian balloons were shot down over Kyiv ahead of the 16 February strikes. Ukraine’s Air Force Command assessed that these balloons were used as ‘false targets’ by Russia to identify air defences and deplete Ukrainian air defence ammunition. While the focus on such balloons has increased in recent weeks, including incidents in North America and the recent closure of Moldovan airspace due to potential balloon activity (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 15 February 2023), Russian forces have used such ‘false targets’ in the past to distract Ukrainian air defences.
The missile strikes were notably less intensive than those conducted on 10 February, when over 70 cruise missiles were launched (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 February 2023). As such, the latest strikes were highly likely designed to test Ukrainian air defences in order to aid operational planning for the anticipated strikes to mark the upcoming anniversary of the war. Aligning with our own assessment, Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Secretary Danilov stated on 16 February that Russian forces are preparing for further rounds of mass strikes on 23-24 February. Further reconnaissance and probing attacks designed to identify gaps and steadily wear down Ukrainian air defences are likely in the run-up to the anniversary. Nevertheless, every round of strikes which Moscow launches will ultimately reduce the number of missiles available for a massed assault designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences in a single, catastrophic attack.
Georgia: Draft Russian-style foreign agent law heightens operational risks for NGOs, Western entities. On 14 February, members of the government-affiliated People’s Power party officially registered the draft law on ‘transparency of foreign influence’ in parliament. The proposed law requires a comprehensive financial revenue and expense declaration from those classified as ‘foreign agents’. The draft defines an agent of foreign influence as an entity that receives more than 20% of its income from a foreign power. The terms closely align with Russia’s own foreign agent law which has complicated the operating environment for foreign-linked entities in Russia. While it remains unclear when the law will be enacted in the Georgian Dream-dominated parliament, the likely eventual adoption of the law would confirm the increasingly anti-Western stance of the Georgian government. The operations of foreign entities, such as media companies and NGOs, that benefit from Western financing, will likely be undermined or restricted, particularly if they are deemed to be critical of the government.
Kazakhstan: Clampdown of ex-president’s clan will likely mitigate risk of unrest ahead of election. On 15 February, Kazakh President Kassim-Jomart Tokayev signed into law a bill that strips the immediate family of former leader Nursultan Nazarbayev of legal immunity. It also annuls Nazarbayev’s lifetime financial support by the state treasury, as well as security protection provided to him and his family members. The timing of Tokayev’s move to deprive Nazarbayev and his family of such privileges is clearly aimed at distancing himself from his predecessor ahead of a snap parliamentary election scheduled for 19 March. The bill is likely to appeal to Kazakh nationals who are critical of corruption, which was a key trigger for mass anti-government demonstrations in January 2022. As such, the clampdown on the Nazarbayev clan’s grip on the economy and political influence will likely mitigate the risk of unrest, though the prospects for genuine governance reforms following the upcoming election remain unclear.
*A Russian missile hit a critical infrastructure site in Lviv as Russia launched a fresh wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on Thursday. A fire broke out in the western city of Lviv but was brought under control. It comes as Russia fired a combination of 36 cruise and other missiles losing at least 16 of them to Ukrainian air defence batteries, Ukrainian officials said Thursday.
The head of Ukraine’s presidential office said targets had been hit in the country’s north, west and south. (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
Feb. 15.
Cyber Update.
Key Points
• During this monitoring period, we observed an increase in pro-Russia distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks targeting Japan, Sweden and NATO. Pro-Russia hacktivists also continued to target the healthcare sectors of countries supporting Ukraine with DDoS attacks. Meanwhile, ongoing Russian censorship efforts to prevent anti-Putin and/or other inflammatory content underscore increasingly concerted efforts by the Kremlin to crack down on dissidents in the country.
• We also observed an ongoing trend in pro-Kyiv cyber operations targeting Russian government-affiliated businesses. This will likely persist during the run-up to the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, sanctions imposed by the UK and the US against the Russia-affiliated ransomware group Trickbot highlight that there are ongoing efforts to disrupt cyber operations aimed at financially supporting Russia.
Latest Significant Updates
Pro-Russia cyber attackers target aircraft operating as part of Syria, Turkey earthquake relief efforts; other pro-Russia hacktivists shift target selection to include Japanese firms
• On 14 February, the Russian authorities launched a new web crawler called Oculus to detect videos and images of protesters, ‘positive depictions’ of LGBTQI+ culture and memes criticising Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of their ongoing attempts to block ‘fake information’.
• On 13 February, the pro-Russia hacktivist group NoName05716 claimed to have shifted its target selection to include Japan. It reportedly conducted a DDoS attack against the technology company Panasonic; the date of the attack is not clear.
• On 12 February, the pro-Russia hacktivist group Killnet disrupted the communication systems of aircraft providing aid to victims of the recent earthquakes in Syria and Turkey. The group was supported by the pro-Russia hacktivist groups Mistnet and Usersec.
• On 10 February, the pro-Russia hacktivist sect Anonymous Sudan launched DDoS attacks against the websites of hospitals, medical facilities and airports in Sweden as part of an ongoing effort to support Anonymous Russia.
Pro-Kyiv hacking groups sustain attacks against Russian-controlled businesses; sanctions against ransomware groups will likely prompt retaliatory attacks against Western entities
• On 14 February, the IT Army of Ukraine announced that it had leaked the personal data of around 38,000 consumers of Vodokanal Cheboksary, a water utilities company in Russia.
• On 12 February, the pro-Kyiv Italian sect of Anonymous, AnonSecIta, targeted various companies belonging to Vladimir Potanin, a Russian oligarch, via DDoS attacks. The affected companies include:
o Norilsk Support Complex (a producer of structural metals for the Norilsk industrial hub)
o Srk Arena-Norilsk (a shopping centre in Norilsk)
o AK NordStar (a Russian airline company)
o Kolabyt (a transport company)
o Arktik-Energo (an electricity distribution company)
o Kola MMC (a producer of nonferrous metals)
• On 10 February, Team OneFist and Anonymous RoughSec, a sub-group of the decentralised Anonymous collective, alleged to have hacked a Russian facial recognition software company (HikVision) and leaked its files.
• On 9 February, the UK and the US jointly imposed sanctions against seven Russians associated with the ransomware group Trickbot.
• BAKHMUT: On 14 February, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that his forces are nowhere near completing an encirclement of Bakhmut due to the Ukrainian defence, though Russian forces are likely making marginal gains to the north and south of the town. The Washington Post this week cited unnamed US military planners who consider it ‘unrealistic [for Ukrainian forces] to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counter-offensive’. President Volodymyr Zelensky did acknowledge on 14 February that the situation across Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remains ‘extremely difficult’. We have previously assessed that President Zelensky’s decision to hold Bakhmut is likely driven by political as much as military considerations, given that the town has assumed symbolic importance for both sides (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 6 February 2023).
• BAKHMUT: On 15 February, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) stated that Russia’s strategy in attacking Bakhmut and Vuhledar is aimed at delaying Ukraine’s counter-offensive. It remains unclear if and when Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the town given both sides’ heavy losses, and whether committing reserves and resources to its defence will severely undermine preparations for Ukraine’s own spring counter-offensive. However, in this highly attritional conflict, denying the town to Russian forces while inflicting heavy casualties will likely also undermine Russian offensive momentum, thereby limiting Russian advances elsewhere. Regardless, if the defence of Bakhmut proves protracted in the coming weeks, there is a realistic possibility that additional resources will need to be diverted away from preparations for a counter-punch later in the spring.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces continue to apply pressure along the Luhansk axis, but progress remains slow and serious offensive momentum has not been generated. Over the last 24-48 hours, numerous Russian sources have claimed various Russian advances along both the Kupiansk and west Kreminna directions, but they remain unconfirmed. Geolocated footage does suggest Russian armoured units have made incremental gains west of Kreminna, but advances remain small. Ukrainian governor of Luhansk oblast Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces are constantly probing Ukrainian defences along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and are bringing up mobilised reserves to plug holes and reinforce. Nevertheless, Haidai once again warned that Ukrainian forces are anticipating large-scale offensive operations in the coming days as Russian forces likely aim to retake lost positions in Luhansk oblast under orders from President Putin.
• SOUTHERN: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces, Natalya Humenyuk, reported on 14 February that Russian forces are attempting to demonstrate advanced capability across the Kherson axis and give the impression of preparations for further offensive operations in the area. Our assessment remains unchanged, that Russian forces are unlikely to launch major offensive operations across the Dnieper River in the short term, given limited capability on the southern (left) bank of the river, and the clear prioritisation of the eastern front. Raids along the Dnieper will nevertheless continue, and satellite imagery released this week confirms that Russian forces have constructed additional defences and trench lines across Kherson oblast.
• BORDERS: This morning (15 February), the head of the Russian Kharkiv occupation administration Vitaly Ganchev claimed that all settlements in Kharkiv oblast which had been under Russian control until September 2022 ‘will now be systematically liberated’. It remains unclear whether Ganchev’s statements reflect genuine Russian plans to retake parts of Kharkiv oblast, or whether it forms part of an information operation designed to fix Ukrainian positions around Kharkiv and distract from the main effort in the Donbas. We continue to monitor Russian military build-ups along the border with eastern Ukraine amid potential preparations for a supplementary offensive against Kharkiv oblast. We have previously assessed that Russian forces likely aim to retake the land lost during Ukraine’s Kharkiv counter-offensive last year, and while the Luhansk offensive continues to build momentum, the possibility of a fresh front south of Belgorod remains a realistic possibility.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: Today (15 February) marks the second day of the Ramstein-9 summit in Brussels. While further announcements of aid are likely, the German outlet Welt reported on 14 February that the Netherlands and Denmark will not supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 main battle tanks, despite previously indicating that they would do so. They will reportedly finance the refurbishing of 100 German Leopard 1 tanks instead. However, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated that the second day of the summit will focus on tanks, with Kyiv likely attempting to lobby these governments for the tanks and expand the tank coalition. German defence minister Boris Pistorius also stated on 14 February that supplying Ukraine with fighter jets is not currently the focus, with the provision of air defences and ammunition more important.
• AID: Amid the Ramstein summit, the Washington Post this week cited an unnamed US official that has claimed that Washington D.C. is privately impressing on Ukrainian officials that US military aid to Ukraine is not unlimited. This feeds into wider concerns around the West’s ability to continue providing ever larger quantities of equipment and munitions while also retaining their own defence capabilities in the absence of a massive ramping up of military-industrial production.
• MOLDOVA: On 14 February, Moldova and neighbouring Romania closed their respective airspace due to reports of unidentified aerial objects ‘similar to a weather balloon’ picked up on radar at a height of 11,000m over Moldova’s northern airspace. Romanian MiG-21 LanceR aircraft searched the area but found no identifiable object. The development comes shortly after various Chinese high-altitude balloons and other flying objects have been identified over the North American continent. The temporary closure of Moldovan airspace caused major travel disruption and resulted in dozens of flights being cancelled or rescheduled. Tensions remain extremely high in the country following Chisinau’s accusations that Russia is actively plotting to destabilise and topple the pro-Western government, and further security scares are likely in this particularly febrile atmosphere. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 13 February 2023.
• DIPLOMACY: On 15 February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on Russia’s updated foreign policy concept, which he stated will be focused on ‘the need to end the dominance of the West in international life’. Lavrov echoed long-held Russian foreign policy priorities, largely framed around Russian and wider international sovereignty amidst US ‘unipolarity’. Lavrov also stated that the West has ‘reached a point of no return’ in its alleged attempts to turn Ukraine into an ‘anti-Russian foothold’. Ultimately, the updated foreign policy concept reflects a continuation rather than a major shift in Russian foreign policy – but it clearly underlines Russia’s growing role as a global disruptor aimed at undermining Western interests and the international rules-based order.
• ANNIVERSARY: The Russian upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, has confirmed today (15 February) that it will bring forward a meeting from 1 March to 22 February, just two days before the anniversary of the invasion. As we have previously reported, President Vladimir Putin is set to address the Russian parliament on 21 February, and so the revision to the upper chamber’s timetable could indicate preparations for a rapid rubber stamping of any presidential decrees Putin announces on that day. For further analysis of what this announcement could entail, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 February 2023.
FORECAST
OFFENSIVES: This morning (15 February), the Financial Times reported that intelligence shared among NATO allies indicates that Russia is massing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft along the border with Ukraine, in possible preparations for an aerial offensive. While such aircraft are unlikely to directly target civilian areas, they could be used more aggressively to support ground operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts. Such operations would likely attempt to generate offensive momentum and make up for Russia’s limited ground manoeuvre capabilities.
However, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated yesterday (14 February) that the US is not seeing imminent signs of a ‘massive aerial attack’, but acknowledged that the Russian Aerospace Forces retain substantial capability and that Ukrainian air defences are currently insufficient. Satellite imagery covering airbases in Belarus does not seem to indicate a notable increase in fixed-wing aircraft numbers this week, though numbers at airbases inside Russia are seemingly growing.
In recent months, Russian forces have been making greater and more effective use of air force assets to support operations in eastern and southern Ukraine, which underlines the growing importance of air defence transfers to Ukraine. This is likely in part due to the previous Russian commander Sergei Surovikin, who remains the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS). Russia still retains a significant preponderance in offensive fixed-wing aircraft, but due to Ukrainian air defences, they have not been utilised as aggressively as in other conflict zones – for example in Syria. However, if Ukrainian air defence capabilities diminish or are spread too thin, this could yet provide Russia future opportunities to make greater use of its highly effective fixed-wing bomber fleet. For further analysis of the threat of increased use of such assets and its potential implications on civilian areas, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 18 November 2022.
Montenegro-Russia: Prigozhin’s admission of links to Internet Research Agency underscores threat of Russian interference in presidential election. On 14 February, the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, admitted having founded and financed the Internet Research Agency, a troll farm accused of targeting the 2016 US presidential elections. Prigozhin’s statement underscores the systemic capabilities Russia likely attempts to employ to interfere in elections. Prominent upcoming electoral cycles are likely to remain vulnerable to such interference, such as the Montenegro presidential elections on 19 March. In the October 2016 parliamentary elections, Russia was accused of planning to destabilise the country by supporting a coup. Having joined NATO in 2017, Montenegro’s political environment has since seen a struggle between pro-Western and pro-Russia political factions. Given Russian interests in the country, and recent Moldovan allegations that Montenegrin citizens have been involved in plans to destabilise the country, electoral inference remains likely during the election, though it is unlikely to prove seriously destabilising.
Ukraine: Possibility of EU accessing frozen Russian funds highlights potential reconstruction opportunities. On 14 February, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced that the EU will launch a working group to determine how Russian funds can be utilised for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Kristersson noted that Moscow must pay for the restoration of Ukraine but highlighted potential legal hurdles in accessing the funds. According to officials, the decision regarding the group’s remit will be taken on 15 February. In November 2022, the European Council (EC) proposed creating a structure to manage the EUR 300bn (USD 321.8bn) of frozen Russian central bank assets and EUR 19bn (USD 20.3bn) seized from Russian oligarchs. However, officials revealed that only the proceeds could be relayed to Kyiv. While Stockholm’s announcement signals a positive step that highlights potential reconstruction opportunities for businesses, it is likely that the plan will face legal difficulties in how to access the funds and what assets can be used for rebuilding Ukraine.
Feb. 14.
• BAKHMUT: Ukrainian commanders and military officials have now acknowledged that Russian forces are able to interdict the two principal ground lines of communications (GLOCs) supplying Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut. Ukrainian supplies must now be delivered along low-capacity back roads. Ukrainian forces are also now facing difficulties in using heavy weaponry inside the town, including artillery and tanks, due to the close-quarters urban fighting. Russian forces are continuing to encroach steadily around Bakhmut, and it remains unclear if or when Ukrainian troops will decide to withdraw in order to preserve their forces and prevent an encirclement.
• BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces have dropped a key bridge along the N-32 (T-0513) highway around five miles (8km) west of Bakhmut. The bridge connected the town to Kostyantynivka – which we previously assessed as a possible Ukrainian fall-back position. Ukrainian officials continue to deny that they are planning a withdrawal from the town. However, the Donetsk regional administration has now also restricted journalists’ access to Bakhmut and the surrounding region, citing Russian operations to penetrate the town. Such developments possibly point to preparations for a withdrawal, though this remains unclear. Russian sources reported earlier on 14 February that heavy fighting is ongoing around Paraskoviivka, a settlement located three miles (5km) north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora. Further reports of Russian advances to the west cutting off the M-03 (E40) highway cannot be confirmed at this stage.
• DONETSK: Russian forces have continued to attack west of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar over the last 24 hours; they are unlikely to be making any notable progress despite high casualty rates.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and eastern Kharkiv oblasts continue to build, though advances are so far likely to be fairly limited. Various Russian sources have claimed limited progress at various points of the Oskil-Kreminna front, particularly in the Kupiansk and west Kreminna directions. However, these advances remain unconfirmed. Despite the seemingly limited gains achieved by Russia’s Luhansk offensive so far, Russian sources have in recent days claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing defensive positions and bringing forward reserves in anticipation of large-scale Russian advances in the coming days and weeks. Russian sources have also emphasised the deployment of elite Spetsnaz units, claiming they are supporting Russian operations as the offensive continues to build. For further analysis of Russian offensive capabilities during the spring offensive, see FORECAST below.
• BORDERS: Satellite imagery released this week confirms that Russian forces have established new field camps and staging grounds near the Pogonovo Training Ground in Voronezh oblast. While the force numbers currently arrayed at the new camps are limited, there remains a realistic possibility that Pogonovo and other bases will be used as staging grounds to gather forces intended either to support the ongoing offensive in Luhansk oblast, or to open up a supplementary offensive against Kharkiv oblast, which we previously identified as an option for Russia. If Russia’s offensive operations along the Oskil-Kreminna line continue to achieve limited results and/or fail to create a breakthrough, Russian commanders will possibly look to open up a supplementary offensive. At the very least, they will attempt to conduct convincing spoiling attacks along the Kharkiv border in an attempt to draw off Ukrainian forces and reserves so as to relieve pressure on the Luhansk line. We will continue to monitor for signs of build-ups in the Kharkiv-Belgorod border region.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report.
• MOBILISATION: Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), stated this week that Russia will likely postpone its second wave of partial mobilisation due to difficulties which have not yet been resolved following the initial wave in September 2022. As we previously assessed, the war is solidifying into an attritional conflict. Furthermore, all indicators point to Russian forces sustaining extremely high casualties (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 13 February 2023). As such, it remains likely that Moscow will need to initiate new rounds of mobilisation – or commit conscripts to the frontline – in order to sustain offensive operations later in 2023. In the meantime, crypto-mobilisation likely remains ongoing; preparations to shore-up security at state borders likely reflects a general effort to mitigate the threat of a further mass exodus of military-aged men following future mobilisation announcements.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• GRAIN: On 13 February, the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure accused Russia of ‘sabotaging inspections’ of agricultural vessels bound for Ukrainian ports. This comes ahead of the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on 18 March. As of 12 February, there were reportedly 145 vessels in the Bosphorus (Turkey) awaiting inspection by the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC). Over the last week alone, 25 ships have exported around 1.1 million tonnes of agricultural products to markets in Africa, Asia and across Europe. However, delays and the alleged ‘sabotage’ of inspection regimes have caused a decrease in the number of ships arriving at Ukrainian ports in recent months. Kyiv estimates that since 1 August 2022, 732 ships have left Ukrainian ports, exporting around 21m tonnes of food. However, Kyiv states that the total volume should have exceeded 35m tonnes if the normal inspection conditions agreed upon by all sides had been respected. With the renewal of the BSGI approaching, delays will likely continue disrupting agricultural exports. While it remains likely that the deal will be extended, Moscow will possibly seek to increase its leverage to extract additional concessions or delay the implementation of the deal in the short term. In addition, Naval mines are an ongoing threat.
• AID: The latest meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group – Ramstein-9 – will take place at the NATO headquarters in Brussels (Belgium). Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov will attend the meeting and discuss various military aid issues (including the provision of fighter jets) with his counterparts across NATO. The US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, confirmed that eight nations will supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks: Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal and Spain; training for Ukrainian personnel on these tanks is already underway in Poland and Canada.
• AID: Following the success of the ‘tank coalition’ at Ramstein-8, Kyiv is pushing for fighter jet transfers. However, enthusiasm to provide Ukraine with F-16 and other fighters is likely diminishing across Europe amid growing concerns about a worsening production gap that threatens to seriously undermine European and US capabilities. Poland has indicated that it is unlikely to transfer jets without a wider NATO coalition doing so; the US has previously ruled out transfers in the short term. In addition, unnamed US officials cited by Politico on 13 February claimed that the US will not send long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) systems to Ukraine due to the US’ own limited stocks.
• ESCALATION: On 13 February, the Dutch Ministry of Defence reported that two of its F-35s had intercepted three Russian aircraft near Poland. A Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft and two Sukhoi Su-27 (Flanker) fighters were part of the Russian formation that approached NATO airspace, operating from Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad. Initial reporting suggested that the Russian formation had entered Polish airspace, but this was inaccurate. Ultimately, this incident is not a reflection of an escalation along the Polish-Kaliningrad border, given that Russian aircraft frequently test the defences of NATO across Europe; further such incursions are likely.
FORECAST
OFFENSIVES: Moscow’s spring offensive campaign is still in its initial stages. Russian advances have so far remained limited, raising questions about its offensive capabilities and ability to make major gains via manoeuvre operations. The Ukrainian General Staff this morning reported that Russian commanders are now promising troops daily cash incentives to participate in assault operations, including bonuses for every kilometre they advance.
Cash incentives have been used by Russian forces in the past in an attempt to generate momentum, and likely reflect the overall lack of professional training and low morale of units increasingly dominated by mobilised soldiers across the frontline. The failure of the recent attack against Vuhledar and the apparent injection of the previously elite 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet with poorly trained mobilised reservists likely reflects the wider institutional problems with Moscow’s growing reliance on mobilised forces.
Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s efforts to professionalise and centralise the command and control of Russia’s military coalition are also facing backlash. This will likely further undermine Russian offensive capabilities and morale. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed on 13 February that Russian mobilised personnel who have been integrated into former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps units (now part of the centrally-controlled Southern Military District) are refusing to take part in offensive operations. Building on the progress made by his predecessor and deputy, Sergei Surovikin, Gerasimov is clearly attempting to improve Russia’s command and control over all units fighting in Ukraine. However, initiating such reforms during an offensive phase is clearly generating friction between and within units. This will likely undermine the spring offensive, even if such reforms are necessary in the long term to improve Russia’s capabilities.
Moldova: Russian destabilisation campaign set to intensify amid threat of coup and pro-Russian unrest. On 13 February, Moldova’s President Maia Sandu accused Moscow of planning to oust the nation’s government. Sandu alleged that the plot “included military trained personnel disguised as civilians, meant to carry out violent actions, attacks on government buildings and take hostages”. Sandu added that foreign nationals would also enter the country to stage protests in a bid to change the government. Moldova’s pro-Moscow Șor party has already announced plans to rally outside of the nation’s parliament on 19 February. However, these protests alone are unlikely to translate into a major threat to the government’s stability in the short term. If Chisinau proceeds with a NATO application, Russian efforts to destabilise the country would likely accelerate, with bomb scares, border provocations, false-flag operations and destabilising protests all realistic possibilities in the coming weeks.
Feb. 13.
*In the excellent bi-weekly Sibylline 1600 online brief on February 13th, Justin Crump confirmed that although the Russians are reported to be losing 824 men per day and on one front 120 vehicles and 30 tanks, they are in tis for the long term and are prepared to take the war into late summer and beyond. Their ‘Grinding’ tactics are relying on the inability of Ukraine to obtain sufficient ammunition to return the sustained Russian artillery bombardment.
• OFFENSIVES: On 13 February, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces had ‘advanced 1.2 miles (2km)’. However, Ukrainian sources cast doubt on Russia’s ability to launch any such large-scale offensive operations. The Russian offensive in northern Luhansk oblast continues to ramp up, and we are likely only in the beginning phases of the spring offensive campaign. However, Russian advances along the Oskil-Kreminna and Bakhmut lines remain fairly limited. Russian activity along the Oskil-Kreminna line in particular points to Russia’s constrained capabilities to conduct manoeuvre warfare at scale.
• CASUALTIES: The UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) claimed on 12 February that over the last two weeks Russian forces have likely suffered their highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion in 2022. While we cannot confirm the estimated casualty figures provided by the Ukrainian General Staff, DI concurs with Kyiv’s data, which reveals that Russia has been sustaining 824 casualties every day on average for the last week – over four times higher than the rate reported in June-July 2022. While estimating Ukrainian casualties is also very difficult, the intensity of the fighting and the reports from the frontline clearly indicate that Ukrainian forces are also sustaining high casualty rates. However, given the defender’s advantage, Ukraine is unlikely to be sustaining the same rates as the Russian attackers. Nevertheless, these reports and the wider intensification of the Russian offensive indicate that this next phase of the conflict is likely to be just as attritional as the fighting throughout the months beforehand.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Operational Command East Serhiy Cherevatyi reported on 12 February that Russian forces have ramped up their rate of artillery fire across the frontline and have ‘set records’ for shelling along the Oskil-Kreminna front in recent days. As we reported last week, we anticipate a steady intensification of offensive operations as Russia builds momentum in the opening phases of its spring offensive campaign. However, conflicting reporting still makes it difficult to confirm the rate of Russian advances. Nevertheless, the Russian MoD claimed that on 10 February their forces had taken the whole of Dvorichne, located at the northern-most section of the Oskil-Kreminna line in Kharkiv oblast. While this is unconfirmed, Russian forces have been steadily increasing pressure in the direction of Dvorichne-Kupiansk, which likely forms part of the Russian objective to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the Oskil River in the coming weeks. Russian forces have also continued pushing west of Kreminna, with indications that elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division are supporting operations there. However, we cannot confirm such advances in the area at present.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have continued to make steady ground around Bakhmut, setting conditions for the eventual operational encirclement of the town. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private military company (PMC), claimed on 12 February that his forces had taken the village of Krasna Hora, located four miles (7km) north-east of Bakhmut. Earlier on 13 February, the Russian MoD also confirmed the seizure of the settlement. Notably, the Ukrainian General Staff omitted the town from its daily morning report, further suggesting that the town has been taken. Prigozhin reiterated his claim that Wagner fighters are leading operations in the area, stating that ‘within a radius of 31 miles (50km) […] there are only PMC Wagner fighters’. This is highly unlikely to be accurate given numerous indications from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that regular Russian units, including ostensibly elite airborne VDV elements, have been supporting operations north of Soledar and around Bakhmut in recent weeks. It also likely reflects Prigozhin’s attempts to amplify the Wagner Group’s role in the Bakhmut offensive amid the MoD’s reassertion of authority in Ukraine, which continues to undermine his influence.
• OFFENSIVES: Prigozhin also stated on 12 February that it could take Russian forces two years to capture the whole of the Donbas. He repeated his calls for a full mobilisation of the Russian state to enable Moscow to achieve its goals in Ukraine and effectively confront NATO. Prigozhin’s criticism of the current pace of the war effort is likely partly framed by political considerations and his ongoing feud with the MoD and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. However, it also likely acknowledges the realities on the ground as Russian forces struggle to gain momentum. As we have assessed for several months, the war in Ukraine is a highly attritional conflict that is unlikely to end soon. Moscow is preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine, with fresh rounds of mobilisation likely in 2023.
• DONETSK: The Russian offensive against Vuhledar appears to be stalling, and there are numerous indications that Russian forces are sustaining heavy losses. The Ukrainian spokesperson for the Tavriisk Direction Defence Forces, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, claimed earlier on 13 February that ‘a large number’ of Russian personnel have surrendered, including elements of the 40th and 155th naval infantry brigades. Dmytrashkivskyi claimed that in the past week Russian forces have lost large amounts of equipment as part of their failed attack. These losses reportedly amount to 130 vehicles, including 36 tanks. While we cannot confirm these reports, footage of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian mechanised column near Vuhledar triggered major backlash within Russian milblogger communities.
• DONETSK: Several Russian sources have commented that the assault on Vuhledar has now ended due to poor tactics and command and control. Some Russian commentators have directly accused the commander of Russia’s Eastern Grouping of Forces, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, of repeating the failures of the attack on Pavlivka-Vuhledar in November 2022, which also involved Russian units sustaining high casualties for limited gains. It is highly likely that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, which is leading much of the assault on Vuhledar, has been reconstituted with poorly trained mobilised reservists, reflecting the chaotic tactics captured in video footage. It remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to sustain offensive operations on this axis given the high casualty rates. Nevertheless, geolocated footage published on 11 February indicates that Russian forces have brought forward thermobaric artillery to support operations against Vuhledar. This indicates that Russian commanders will possibly continue prioritising the assault on Vuhledar and commit additional reserves to achieve their goal.
• SOUTHERN: Russian forces continue to strengthen defences along the Zaporizhzhia front in likely anticipation of future Ukrainian counter-offensive operations designed to cut off the land bridge between mainland Russia and Crimea. DI assessed on 13 February that the Russian front in Zaporizhzhia amounts to 119 miles (192km) of the 800 miles (1,288km) of frontline that stretches across eastern and southern Ukraine. While the Russian priority at present remains defensive, there is a realistic possibility that Russian forces are preparing a supplementary offensive against the Zaporizhzhia axis in a bid to blunt Ukrainian opportunities for a counter-offensive, depriving them of a ‘victory’ on this vulnerable front. However, there are limited indications of a substantial troop build-up along this front, as Russian attacks over the last few days are unlikely to have made any serious gains.
• STRIKES: On the night of 10-11 February, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 24 UAVs and one Kh-101 cruise missile. Kyiv claims to have intercepted 20 of the UAVs, which targeted energy infrastructure in Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia. In addition, Russian forces appeared to deploy an unmanned naval drone for the first time during an attack against the Zatoka bridge at the mouth of the Dniester Estuary, located 28 miles (45km) south of Odesa. The extent of the damage remains unclear at present, though the timing of the attack was clearly meant to apply pressure on neighbouring Moldova. Russia has frequently used strikes in Ukraine to undermine Moldova’s pro-West government and energy security. The bridge has not been targeted recently, and the direct targeting of critical infrastructure less than 30 miles (48km) from Moldovan territory is highly likely part of Russia’s ongoing destabilisation campaign inside Moldova, as we assessed last week following the fall of the Moldovan government. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command similarly assessed that the attack was designed to instil panic in the areas neighbouring Moldova, and that such operations are likely to continue.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• RUSSIA: Notably, On 12 February, the US embassy in Moscow urged its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to a range of security risks. Notably, the embassy stated that Russia will possibly subject dual nationals to ‘mobilisation, prevent their departure from Russia, and/or conscript them’. The embassy did not state whether this risk was due to an impending second wave of mobilisation, or simply due to heightened risks facing dual US citizens. The embassy also noted that it has ‘severe limitations on its ability to assist US citizens leaving the country’ and that there is a risk that the Russian security services will detain US citizens without duly notifying the US embassy and ‘unreasonably delay US consular assistance’. The latest warning is a clear indication that conditions inside Russia have deteriorated for US citizens.
• ATTACKS: Earlier on 13 February, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) alleged that the US is recruiting Islamist militants affiliated with Islamic State (IS) to carry out terrorist attacks in Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The SVR alleged without evidence that the US plans to transfer small groups of militants who would co-operate with other Islamist terrorist groups with a strong presence in Russia and other CIS countries. The SVR also alleged that, as part of this plan, there would be particular emphasis on attacks against ‘well-guarded facilities, including foreign diplomatic missions’. Notably, the SVR provided no credible evidence to support the allegations. Moscow has previously alleged that the Ukrainian intelligence services have been actively liaising with Islamist groups to stage attacks in Russia. Last week we assessed that Russia would attempt to frame the US as a state sponsor of terrorism after a US journalist claimed that Washington DC was behind the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines. The SVR’s allegations are therefore in line with our assessment and previous patterns of Russian behaviour. Further allegations that Western states (including the UK) are sponsoring terrorism are highly likely.
• NUCELAR: It is likely that the Russian occupation authorities are deliberately draining the Kakhovka reservoir which feeds the cooling system at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). However, there is currently no imminent threat to the integrity of the plant’s systems. The NPR news outlet reported on 10 February that water levels in the reservoir have dropped sharply since the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, from 16.1m on 1 December 2022 to 14.1m on 6 February. The head of the Ukrainian military administration for Zaporizhzhia oblast stated that water levels are decreasing uncontrollably, and that the ZNPP’s water cooling system will be threatened if levels fall below 13.2m. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi concurred, but noted that at present the current water levels do not pose a threat to the ZNPP’s safety systems. While the likelihood of a meltdown at the plant remains very low, water levels in the Kakhovka reservoir will be a key indicator of any increasing threat. We will continue monitoring related developments. For further analysis on the limited threat of a nuclear incident at the ZNPP, see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 18 August 2022.
FORECAST
MOLDOVA: On 13 February, Moldovan President Maria Sandu revealed details about an alleged Kremlin plan to destabilise Moldova. The Ukrainian intelligence services reportedly provided Chisinau with these details last week (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 February 2023). The plan allegedly entails actors with military training, dressed as civilians, staging attacks against state institutions and taking hostages. Sandu also noted that Russia was attempting to topple the government under the guise of peaceful protests, and is providing materiel and support for Russian, Belarusian, Serbian and Montenegrin citizens to enter Moldova to conduct sabotage operations. While we cannot confirm the veracity of these intelligence assessments, its findings align with our own assessment regarding Russia’s destabilisation campaign over the last 12 months. The timing of this weekend’s strikes against the Zatoka bridge at the mouth of the Dniester Estuary, located 30 miles (48km) from Moldovan territory (see STRIKES above), is clearly part of this wider campaign to undermine Chisinau and instil fears of escalation.
The tactics Russia is allegedly attempting to utilise in Moldova resemble those used by Russia and pro-Russian actors in the Donbas during the outbreak of the conflict in 2014. However, it should be noted that the capabilities and mass support available to Russia remain more limited in Moldova than in Donbas prior to 2014, and that Moscow’s objectives vis-à-vis Moldova are likely different than those it held for Donbas.
Firstly, Russia lacks sufficient local support and capabilities in Chisinau-controlled Moldova to instigate an uprising that would overrun the security forces, as was the case in Donetsk and Luhansk. However, it still retains military capabilities in Transnistria. While Moscow could feasibly leverage these capabilities, this remains unlikely in the short term. Secondly, the Kremlin likely views the undermining and destabilisation of the pro-Western administration in Chisinau as an acceptable goal in the short to medium term, rather than necessarily preparing to actively topple the government and replace it with a pro-Russian regime through a popular revolution or coup.
Nevertheless, if Chisinau pushes ahead with its application to join NATO, Russian efforts to destabilise the country would likely accelerate. In the short term, destabilising sabotage operations, bomb scares, anti-government protests, ‘provocations’, false-flag attacks and cross-border incidents along the Transnistrian border all remain realistic possibilities in the coming weeks. For further analysis, see Sibylline Alert – 10 February 2023.
Moldova: New prime minister will assure pro-western trajectory, emphasising internal security. On 10 February, Moldova’s President Maia Sandu appointed a new prime minister, Dorin Recean, following the resignation of Natalia Gavrilita earlier that day. Gavrilita’s resignation follows months of increasing Russian and domestic pressure on the Moldovan government amid the war in Ukraine. In her resignation speech, Gavrilita mentioned the lack of support for her government and that the state would be entering a new phase, emphasising security. Recean is a well-known pro-EU figure who previously served as the national security adviser. His appointment signals a continuation of the pro-EU trajectory and a likely emphasis on internal security to reduce Russian political and economic destabilisation efforts within the country. Tensions between Russia and Moldova will likely remain very high, however, Russian direct military action against Moldova is highly unlikely due to the current Russian force capability.
Russia: US renewed ‘leave country’ advice reflects growing security threats to Westerners. On 13 February, the US Embassy in Moscow issued a warning for US citizens residing or travelling in Russia to leave the country immediately. The embassy highlighted a number of threats, including increased risk of arbitrary detention, harassment by Russian security agencies and individuals with dual nationality being drafted in future rounds of mobilisation. The embassy also warned that Moscow may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ US citizenship if an individual is mobilised or as a means of preventing their ability to leave the country. The US has repeatedly urged its citizens to leave Russia, with the previous warning issued in September 2022, after President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation. The warning reflects the enduringly high threat environment for US citizens and other Westerners in Russia, due to persistently high risks of arbitrary detention and politicised criminal prosecutions. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Feb 23. U.S. tries to woo India away from Russia with display of F-35s, bombers. The United States brought its most advanced fighter jet, the F-35, to India for the first time this week alongside F-16s, Super Hornets and B-1B bombers as Washington looks to woo New Delhi away from its traditional military supplier, Russia.
India, desperate to modernise its largely Soviet-era fighter jet fleet to boost its air power, is concerned about Russian supply delays due to the Ukraine war and faces pressure from the West to distance itself from Moscow.
The American delegation to the week-long Aero India show in Bengaluru, which ends on Friday, is the biggest in the 27-year history of the show and underlines the growing strategic relationship between the United States and India.
In contrast, Russia, India’s largest weapons supplier since the Soviet Union days, had a nominal presence. Its state-owned weapons exporter Rosoboronexport had a joint stall with United Aircraft and Almaz-Antey, displaying miniature models of aircraft, trucks, radars and tanks.
At previous editions of the show, Rosoboronexport had a more central position for its stall, although Russia has not brought a fighter jet to Bengaluru for a decade after India began considering more European and U.S. fighter jets.
Boeing (BA.N) F/A-18 Super Hornets have already entered the race to supply fighter jets for the Indian Navy’s second aircraft carrier and Lockheed Martin’s (LMT.N) F-21, an upgraded F-16 designed for India unveiled at Aero India in 2019, are also being offered to the air force.
A $20bn air force proposal to buy 114 multi-role fighter aircraft has been pending for five years, brought into sharp focus by tensions with China and Pakistan.
The F-35 is not being considered by India “as of now”, according to an Indian Air Force (IAF) source, but the display of two F-35s at Aero India for the first time was a sign of New Delhi’s growing strategic importance to Washington.
It was “not a sales pitch” but rather a signal to the importance of the bilateral defence relationship in the Indo-Pacific region, said Angad Singh, an independent defence analyst.
“Even if weapons sales aren’t the cornerstone of the relationship, there is a cooperation and collaboration at the military level between India and the U.S.,” he added.
The United States is selective about which countries it allows to buy the F-35. When asked if it would be offered to India, Rear Admiral Michael L. Baker, defence attache at the U.S. embassy in India, said New Delhi was in the “very early stages” of considering whether it wanted the plane.
An IAF spokeperson did not respond to a request for comment on its interest in F-35s.
Ahead of the show, Russian state news agencies reported that Moscow had supplied New Delhi with around $13 billion of arms in the past five years and had placed orders for $10 billion.
The United States has approved arms sales worth more than $6 billion to India in the last six years, including transport aircraft, Apache, Chinook and MH-60 helicopters, missiles, air defence systems, naval guns and P-8I Poseidon surveillance aircraft.
India also wants to manufacture more defence equipment at home in collaboration with global giants, first to meet (Source: Reuters)
17 Feb 23. Almost a year on from Russia’s illegal invasion, there is no sign of it ending the war in Ukraine: UK Statement at the UN Security Council. Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the Security Council meeting on Ukraine.
Thank you, President, and thank you to Assistant Secretary-General Jenca and Mr Sajdik for their briefings.
President, Russia has called this meeting allegedly to discuss “lessons learnt from the Minsk agreements for conflict prevention.”
A year ago today, we met in this Chamber to discuss the Minsk Agreements. At that time, Russia had built up a force of over 130,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, inflaming tensions and causing widespread concern.
The message from this Council then was clear: despite the challenges, there had to be urgent de-escalation and dialogue between all parties. USG DiCarlo, and the representatives of the OSCE, repeated this message.
The Secretary-General called for respect for the UN Charter, and reiterated there was no alternative to diplomacy.
Urgent diplomatic efforts were underway to engage Russia through the OSCE Vienna Document process – Russia did not turn up to the meetings – through the Normandy format, and the NATO-Russia Council.
What was Russia’s response? In this Chamber, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vershinin said the allegations that Russia was going to attack Ukraine were “baseless.”
Four days later, President Putin signed a decree recognising Luhansk and Donetsk as independent entities, which tore up the Minsk Agreements. Three days after that, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, bringing suffering to people in all areas of Ukraine and trampling on the UN Charter.
Almost one year on, that invasion continues, with no sign that Russia intends to bring it to an end.
If Russia is committed to agreements it freely signed up to, why did it unilaterally attempt to annex Ukrainian territory in violation of those commitments?
So, President, I will tell you what lessons we have learned:
Russia lied when we warned of its intention to attack Ukraine.
Russia was planning for war while we called for diplomacy and deescalation, and Russia continues to choose death and destruction while the world calls for a just peace.
In short, Russia is yet again feigning an interest in peace while seeking to justify its ongoing military action against Ukraine.
So President, we yet again call on Russia to end its illegal invasion, withdraw from Ukraine and return in good faith to the negotiations aimed at establishing a just, and sustainable peace based on the principles of the UN Charter.
Thank you.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
17 Feb 23. UK Defence Secretary addresses Munich security conference following meeting with JEF counterparts.
Attending the opening day of the Munich Security Conference today, the Defence Secretary urged attendees to continue supporting Ukraine with military aid.
• Ben Wallace spoke about the nuclear order and challenges for transatlantic defence.
• Military support for Ukraine also high on the agenda during the conference.
• Comes after a meeting of the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force in the Netherlands yesterday.
Attending the opening day of the Munich Security Conference today (17 February), the Defence Secretary urged attendees to continue supporting Ukraine with the military aid needed to repel Russia’s invasion.
During the conference, the Defence Secretary also took part in a panel discussion on challenges for transatlantic defence and the nuclear order, in which he stressed the importance of NATO maintaining its nuclear capability as a deterrent force against further Russian aggression in Europe.
Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, said: “NATO remains united in the face of threats to our security in the Euro-Atlantic. Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, and the global response to it, go to show the importance of our international alliances and partnerships.
The Munich Security Conference concludes a week of intense diplomatic activity for the Defence Secretary.”
On Tuesday and Wednesday, he represented the UK at a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels.
Members of the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force met in the Hague, the Netherlands on Thursday, where they agreed on the need to continue to accelerate the supply of military aid to Ukraine.
The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a group of like-minded nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom. The nations share the same purpose, values and a common focus on security and stability in the JEF core regions of the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea region.
The JEF provides a responsive, capable, and ready military force that undertakes integrated activities at sea, on land and in the air, across northern Europe.
These activities are preventative and proportionate and demonstrate solidarity, capability, and resolve to stand together for security and stability in the JEF core regions.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
17 Feb 23. We must give Ukraine more Nato-standard weaponry, Rishi Sunak tells West.
The Government will pledge to bolster Ukraine’s security long after the war with Russia finishes
The West should follow the UK’s lead and “double down” on support to Ukraine, Rishi Sunak will say on Saturday.
The Prime Minister will use his address at the Munich Security Conference to call on other nations to follow Britain’s example of solidarity through providing security reassurances and “advanced, Nato-standard capabilities”.
Mr Sunak will say: “Now is the moment to double down on our military support. When Putin started this war, he gambled that our resolve would falter.
“Even now he is betting we will lose our nerve. But we proved him wrong then, and we will prove him wrong now.”
He will point to the UK’s own commitments in recent weeks, including a promise of sending main battle tanks, advanced air defence systems and longer-range missiles to Ukraine, as well as providing military training to Ukrainians, as examples for the international community to match the level of support the UK has given to Ukraine.
Last week Mr Sunak responded to a direct plea from President Zelensky when he announced that the UK would extend its training mission, which has already trained 10,000 Ukrainian troops in the UK, to cover fighter jet pilots.
The Government said this would ensure Ukraine can defend its skies using Nato tactics well into the future.
Ukraine security to be bolstered ‘forever’
Mr Sunak will also tell delegates gathered on Saturday that Nato as a whole needs to do more “to boost Ukraine’s long-term security”.
“We must give them the advanced, Nato-standard capabilities that they need for the future,” he will say. “And we must demonstrate that we’ll remain by their side, willing and able to help them defend their country again and again.”
It is understood such security reassurances will be a joint “stepping up” of Nato allies in a pledge to assure Ukraine that they will have their support for the long term. One government source added: “It is a way of saying once this war is over, we will continue to bolster the security forever.”
In the last year £2.3bn of UK military support to Ukraine has provided three million pieces of military equipment, including a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks, 200 other armoured vehicles, more than 10,000 anti-tank missiles and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems. Mr Sunak has committed to match or exceed that level of support in 2023.
‘No evidence’ of big Russian offensive
It comes as Ben Wallace addressed the conference on Friday where he spoke of the challenges for transatlantic defence and the nuclear order. The Defence Secretary stressed the importance of Nato maintaining its nuclear capability as a deterrent force against further Russian aggression in Europe.
He said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “reminder why we have a nuclear deterrent in Nato”, adding that he was “proud” of the nuclear alliance because it means Russia is “respectful of Nato’s border because of that”.
Mr Wallace sought to reassure that there was “no evidence of a big massing of Russian forces” in anticipation of a spring offensive in Ukraine.
He also said Ukraine was in a position to mount combined arms attacks, such as was seen in Vuhledar, where Russia lost 3,000 troops in three days. Mr Wallace pointed to the fact that Russia has now also lost two-thirds of its tanks, as he questioned how this was sustainable for Moscow.
Mr Wallace told the Financial Times: “There is no evidence to date of a great, big Russian offensive. What we have seen is an advance on all fronts, but at the expense of thousands of lives… we should actually question the assertion that they (Russia) can go on.”
Macron: I don’t believe in Russian regime change
Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz also used the conference on Friday to call on Western nations to send tanks to Ukraine, after allies who said they would send the vehicles have failed to yet do so.
The German chancellor, who recently agreed to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine following mounting pressure, said: “Those who can send such battle tanks should really do so now.”
It had been hoped that the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland would send tanks, but so far only Portugal has pledged to send three tanks.
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron used the conference to express that he does not support a regime change in Russia.
The French president said: “I don’t believe for one second in regime change, and when I hear a lot of people advocating for regime change I ask them, ‘For which change? Who’s next? Who is your leader’?”
He added that regime changes had historically proven to be “total failure”.
(Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
17 Feb 23. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has admonished Germany’s allies for failing to deliver tanks to Ukraine after having spent months urging Berlin to do so. Scholz was asked by a journalist at the Munich Security Conference whether he was now in the position of having to persuade other nations to provide the heavy armour they had promised. He replied: “That’s a question I have to ask to others, especially those who were so much urging [me] to act.” Often called the Davos of Defence, the MSC brings together government ministers, army generals and senior diplomats for three days of discussions that this year are expected to focus heavily on the war in Ukraine and its implications for the global security order. More than 40 heads of state and 60 ministers are attending the conference, which has also attracted the biggest US congressional delegation in the event’s history. Kamala Harris, the US vice-president, will be taking part. Last year’s conference was held just days before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and world leaders used it to urge President Vladimir Putin to desist from his war plans — pleas that fell on deaf ears. No Russian officials have been invited this year. The conference began with a video address by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who compared his country to the biblical David in a fight to the death with Russia’s Goliath, and appealed for more western military support. “It’s not just about Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said. “The point is that Goliath must lose and there is no alternative to this.” He said the west must pick up the pace of its support for Ukraine. “Delayed decisions are a resource that Putin’s dictatorship lives on.” French president Emmanuel Macron used his conference speech to call on leaders of the global south to join the west in condemning the war. He called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “neocolonialist and imperialist” attack that “broke all taboos”. While western countries have rallied to help Ukraine, many Asian, Latin American and African countries have been at best lukewarm in their support for Kyiv in what they see as a European war that is far from their daily concerns. The French president insisted that was not the case. “To close your eyes [to the invasion] is to legitimise neocolonialism and imperialism around the world,” Macron told the conference. “It is a vision of the world that has broken all taboos, not only violating the UN charter . . . but also murders, rapes, war crimes and the systemic destruction of civilian infrastructure.” Macron said the world’s response to war showed the need to rebalance the global order and make it more inclusive. “I am struck by how we have lost the trust of the global south,” he added. “It is a top priority: to restore solidarity,” Macron said, adding that the global south would be needed to eventually seal a sustainable end to the conflict. First, however, the west needed “to intensify our support and our efforts to the resistance of the Ukrainian people and its army and help them to launch a counter-offensive which alone can allow credible negotiations, determined by Ukraine”, Macron said. Recommended FT Magazine How Ukrainian photographers captured a year of conflict Scholz’s reference to tanks highlighted growing German frustration with its allies’ position on providing heavy weaponry to Ukraine. The chancellor faced months of pressure to set up and lead a consortium of countries capable of supplying German-made Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine. But in the weeks after Berlin finally agreed to send 14 Leopard 2s, few other countries have committed any of their own stockpiles of the tank. In his conference address, Scholz urged “all those who can supply main battle tanks to really do so”. He said German defence minister Boris Pistorius and foreign minister Annalena Baerbock would be using the Munich conference to encourage allies to fulfil their commitments on tanks. Germany would, he added, “do what it can to make this decision easier for our partners — say by training Ukrainian soldiers here in Germany, or providing support in terms of supplies and logistics”. (Source: FT.com)
17 Feb 23. The Russian army is suffering huge losses in Ukraine, shows no sign it has improved its “meat grinder” tactics and is struggling to sustain a stuttering offensive that is “advancing, if at all, in metres not kilometres”, Britain’s defence minister Ben Wallace said. Despite fears that Russia is poised to launch a major attack around the first anniversary of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Wallace said there was “no evidence of a big massing of Russian forces”. Speaking to the Financial Times on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Wallace said the best Moscow had managed so far was a series of probing attacks along the frontline that had led to high Russian casualties. Moreover, Kyiv’s western allies were “more resolved than ever” to help Ukraine repel Russian forces and one clear sign of that was a strengthening of support of the US, which is now “committed to seeing the conflict through to the end”. “There is no evidence to date of a great, big Russian offensive,” Wallace said on Friday. “What we have seen is an advance on all fronts, but at the expense of thousands of lives . . . We should actually question the assertion that they [the Russians] can go on.” There has also been a shift in attitude about military aid among Kyiv’s western allies. This time last year, he said, they were debating whether to send anti-tank missiles to Kyiv. Now they are sending western main battle tanks. “What has changed is that the US has decided to be more assertive,” Wallace said, pointing to the almost $8bn of military aid Washington has committed this year. “Just think about it: we [western allies] have convened twice in the past three weeks [to discuss military aid], at the Ramstein [US air base in Germany] and at the Nato defence ministers meeting this week. That is a big change.” One bridge that Kyiv’s allies have not yet crossed, however, is the provision of western fighter jets to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an eloquent plea for “wings for freedom” during a surprise visit to London earlier this month. But Wallace cautioned that was still a long way off and that the modern fighter jet training the UK had offered to Ukrainian pilots was a “long-term resilience measure for after the war, when Ukraine needs to defend itself”. Wallace’s assessment of the state of the battlefield comes as Moscow’s full-scale invasion approaches its first anniversary next week. Since the start of the invasion more than 180,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded and, according to US estimates, two-thirds of the army’s tanks have been lost, he said. Despite these losses, Wallace said there was no sign that the Russian army had changed what he called its “meat grinder” approach, and cited reports that 3,000 Russian soldiers had died during a three-day attack last week on the southern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar. “Russian recruits are still being shoved into the meat grinder,” Wallace said. “And I am not sure that is sustainable, even for Russia, because 180,000 people have wives, mothers, sisters and friends and it becomes impossible for the scale of that loss to be hidden from the Russian people.” Recommended FT Magazine He wanted an adventure. He ended up in Ukraine’s most brutal war zone Western officials also believe that Russia is struggling to source weapons and other materiel for its war effort. They cite the long gaps between its missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and “active rationing” of shells for Russian artillery on the front line. Kyiv’s western allies are similarly struggling to maintain supplies of artillery shells and other munitions and weaponry to Ukraine. However, Wallace said that while Ukraine may be suffering some shortages, this was a timing issue and Kyiv’s western backers had no strategic problem in continuing to supply Ukraine’s war effort. “There’s always been a sense of shortages on [Ukraine’s] front line, but I don’t see any sign of strategic shortages . . . although there is a bit of a time lag” in getting supplies through, Wallace said. The challenge, he added, was for Ukrainian forces to be precise in their use of weaponry and to continue fighting using western methods. “Do you need 100 artillery shells to blow up a Russian position, or just five? If you can be accurate, you don’t need 100 shells,” he said. “Russia still has significant forces at its disposal,” Wallace said. “But what we have discovered is that when they muster them, they get whacked . . . They’re struggling.”
(Source: FT.com)
17 Feb 23. Ukraine war spurs European demand for U.S. arms, but not big-ticket items.
European demand for U.S. weaponry is soaring, but instead of big-ticket items like jets and tanks, shopping lists are focused on cheaper, less-sophisticated items such as shoulder-fired missiles, artillery, and drones that have proven critical to Ukraine’s war efforts.
Countries close to Russia like Poland, Finland and Germany are striking deals to build U.S. weapons in Europe, negotiating new deals to buy arms and looking to speed up existing contracts, according to interviews with military officials and industry executives, and a Reuters review of recent announcements by governments and defense manufacturers.
Demand is centered around basic weapons and munitions: 155-millimeter artillery rounds, air defenses, communications equipment, shoulder-fired Javelin missiles and drones, nearly a dozen European military attachés in Washington told Reuters in a series of recent interviews.
The focus on high-volume, less costly weapons underscores how the war in Ukraine has reshaped strategic thinking in European capitals about how future conflicts could be fought.
Visions of high-tech wars more reliant on computers and machines have been replaced by the reality of relentless artillery duels and soldiers dug into muddy trenches. The one-year-old war has seen both sides expend vast quantities of artillery shells and missiles.
Ukraine’s high usage rates of “both precision and unguided munitions have shown NATO countries that any future war would require much higher stocks than anticipated,” said Roman Schweizer, a defense policy analyst at investment bank Cowen & Co.
The attaches said their governments were particularly keen on buying Javelins after seeing the weapon’s effectiveness in Ukraine. The missiles have proven deadly against Russian tanks.
Five European countries, meanwhile, have expressed interest in buying Raytheon Technologies’ (RTX.N) precision-guided 155 millimeter artillery rounds, according to a company spokesperson, who declined to name them. The rounds are accurate to within 12 feet (4 meters) and have a range of 20 miles (32 km).
The interest from the five countries has not been previously reported. The company already sells to three other European nations.
Expressions of interest are the first step in a multi-step acquisition process that includes approval from the United States government and negotiations between the buyer and weapons contractor. It can be a year or more before a weapon is actually delivered.
Several of the military attachés, who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak to the media on behalf of their governments, said their countries have been making sure payments to defense contractors have been on schedule, hoping to forestall any delays. The weapons purchases are now a domestic policy priority in their countries, they said.
U.S. arms makers have in the past complained about late customer payments on calls with investors.
DRONES BIG AND SMALL
Small drones and bigger unmanned aircraft, which cost about $20 million each without sophisticated sensors, cameras and other “extras,” have also appeared on shopping lists.
Finland and Denmark began talks with General Atomics after Russia invaded Ukraine last February, a source familiar with the discussions told Reuters. They want to buy a small number of MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones that can be used for maritime and land surveillance.
A Finnish defense ministry spokesperson declined to comment. A Danish defense ministry spokesperson said they have begun the process to buy at least two “long range, long endurance Remotely Piloted Aircraft System(s)” to strengthen “military capacities in the Arctic,” without naming any companies.
Poland, which has been eager to get its hands on the same model drones, just received two of the previous generation model on lease from General Atomics until they get U.S. approval to buy the new ones, according to two sources familiar with the situation.
Defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak confirmed the delivery, although not the number, in a Feb. 12 tweet that said they will be used to surveil the country’s eastern border, which it shares with Ukraine and Russian ally Belarus.
Some European countries are also keen to begin producing U.S. weapons on their soil because it would reduce dependency on foreign imports and lower purchasing costs.
In Germany, arms maker Rheinmetall is ready to boost the output of tank and artillery munitions and may start producing High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) mobile rocket launchers, which have had great success targeting Russian positions, CEO Armin Papperger told Reuters. read more
The system is currently produced by Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) in Camden, Arkansas. It is not clear whether the system would be produced under license, a joint venture or some other arrangement.
A Lockheed Martin spokesperson declined to comment directly on the possibility of Rheinmetall beginning production of HIMARS. Lockheed Martin’s Eastern European business development manager for several missile programs, Rita Flaherty, said the company was “exploring co-production and technology transfer with several international partners.”
Latvia, too, is interested in co-producing U.S. munitions. “We recognize the benefits provided by local production of large caliber munitions,” military affairs spokesperson Roberts Skraucs said in a statement to Reuters.
Expectations remain high that European fears of Russian aggression will still generate orders for the biggest, multibillion dollar U.S. weapons like fighter jets and expensive missile defense systems with sophisticated radar.
For more expensive arms, the first orders are expected to be used to backfill equipment sent to Ukraine by Poland. Slovakia, for example, has said it is ready to send its MiG-29 jets to Ukraine. A likely replacement would be Lockheed Martin’s F-16, which cost about $65 million each.
Investors banking on soaring demand for U.S. weapons have boosted share prices of the biggest U.S. defense contractors – adding $35bn in market value – since the invasion of Ukraine began.
ARTILLERY STILL KEY
Demand is particularly high for 155 millimeter artillery shells. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the continued importance of artillery in helping to overwhelm enemy positions or thwart troop advances. The U.S. last year shipped more than 1 million 155 millimeter shells to Ukraine, a standard round that costs the U.S. Army about $800 each.
The U.S. production goal for 155 millimeter rounds has tripled from 30,000 shells a month to 90,000 a month over the next two years, according to an Army official. The huge increase reflects the need to restock U.S. supplies as well as those of allies including Norway, Canada, Finland, France, Germany and Italy, who sent some of their stocks to Ukraine.
“It has really hit home that this is an industrial-style war,” said Seth Jones with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, referring to a conflict that requires a high volume of weaponry in a short period of time.
Countries also realized early on in the Ukraine conflict the importance of having the Javelin anti-armor missile in their armories, which frequently appeared in news reports of Ukraine’s destruction of Russian armored columns.
In April, Lithuania said it had set aside 1bn euros for Javelins and other weapons. In May, Lockheed said it was doubling production and later in the month won, alongside its production partner Raytheon, a $309 million order for more than 1,300 Javelin missiles for Norway, Albania, Latvia as well as to restock U.S. supplies sent to Ukraine. In August, the United States approved a $300 million order for Britain.
Training for Javelins is relatively quick, compared to the learning required for more sophisticated platforms like tanks and planes, and the weapons themselves are relatively inexpensive. The medium-range missiles guide themselves after being launched, allowing the shooter to take cover. A single Javelin costs the U.S. Army about $263,000. (Source: Reuters)
16 Feb 23. Ukraine to receive multi-million pound capability boost from international fund. The boost to Ukraine’s defence capability includes drones, ammunition, air defence, and electronic warfare Ukraine will receive capabilities worth millions including tank spares, uncrewed air systems, electronic warfare, and air defence, from the first package of multi-million pound funding from the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU).
The first equipment package was agreed by the UK, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. These partners, along with Iceland and Lithuania, have contributed a collective total of more than £520 million to the fund.
With an expected value of more than £200m, the first package will include vital capabilities in the form of artillery ammunition, maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and spare parts for equipment, including Ukraine’s current tanks.
The first package of IFU support drew bids from both UK and international industry suppliers to meet Ukraine’s lethal and non-lethal equipment provision priorities, with more than 40 countries submitting more than 1,500 proposals across 11 capability areas. The funding agreement demonstrates the UK’s commitment to standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside Allies, we continue to provide training and equipment to the country, with the ability to surge that support should Ukraine come under threat. By making this commitment we will strengthen Ukraine’s position in negotiations, guard its long-term sovereignty and enable Ukraine to deter by denial.
The announcement came today during a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels, attended by Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This equipment package will provide a significant capability boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country.
The UK led International Fund for Ukraine demonstrates the commitment of the UK and our Allies to ensure Ukraine receives vital military aid necessary to defend against Russia’s illegal invasion.”
Following this morning’s NATO meeting, 18 European nations, including the UK, agreed to sign a joint letter of intent to explore and develop a framework for improved surveillance from space, through multinational cooperation and sharing of national space-based capabilities.
The agreement, which will launch the Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space Initiative (APSS), was signed by the UK, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey, and Sweden.
The letter of intent agrees that signatory nations will explore: the potential for sharing data from national surveillance satellites; processing, exploitation, and dissemination of data from within national capabilities; and funding to purchase data from commercial companies. APSS is expected to start operating in 2025.
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the importance of a persistent space surveillance capability, which also forms one of the North Atlantic Council’s agreed strategic outcomes of its Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Vision 2030+.
The announcements come just days after President Zelenksyy made a historic visit to the UK to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and see first-hand how the UK was supporting Ukraine through military training and lethal aid donations.
Bilaterally, the UK supported Ukraine with £2.3bn of military support in 2022 and the Government has committed to matching or exceeding this in 2023. Since the start of the year, the UK has already committed to providing Ukraine with a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, including training, ammunition, and spare parts; AS90 self-propelled guns to boost Ukraine’s long-range capability; and hundreds more air defence missiles. (Source: U.K. MoD)
16 Feb 23. Ukraine to receive first equipment package under UK-led IFU effort. The £200m package includes ammunition, air defence systems, drones, and electronic warfare and maritime ISR systems.
Understand the impact of the Ukraine conflict from a cross-sector perspective with the Global Data Executive Briefing: Ukraine Conflict
The UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands have agreed to provide additional defence equipment packages to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) on 15 February, the latest announcement comes after the recently held Nato defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Belgium.
The package is the military aid announced under the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) initiative launched last year.
Valued at over £200m, the package comprises of artillery ammunition, air defence systems, drones, electronic warfare systems, maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and additional equipment and spare parts.
Apart from this, Iceland and Lithuania have also made financial contributions of over £520m to the IFU.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This equipment package will provide a significant capability boost for Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country.”
The IFU fund supports the direct purchase of equipment from industry to ensure optimal use of the budget and faster deliveries to Ukraine.
The first package drew bids from various UK and international industry suppliers to fulfil the Ukrainian forces’ requirements.
The UK MoD further confirmed that the country has signed a joint letter of intent with 17 European nations to launch a new initiative, called Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS).
The effort, which is expected to commence in 2025, aims to explore and develop a framework for collaboratively enhancing multinational space-based surveillance capabilities.
Participating nations include the UK, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria, France, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Portugal.
It comes in the wake of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and is also a key strategic outcome of Nato’s Joint ISR Vision 2030+.
(Source: army-technology.com)
15 Feb 23. Ukraine needs to learn ‘Western way’ of fighting, says Ben Wallace. Defence Secretary calls on Kyiv to use weapons more sparingly as concerns grow about dwindling munitions stocks. Ukraine must be trained in the “Western way” of ammunition usage in order to conserve dwindling stocks, the Defence Secretary has said.
Ben Wallace warned that Kyiv’s troops could run out of ammunition unless they used them more sparingly or employed precision munitions.
He spoke at the Nato headquarters in Brussels as defence ministers from the 30-nation alliance met to discuss how best to help Ukraine repel Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion, which will shortly enter its second year.
Mr Wallace said: “The Russian, or the Soviet, way of fighting is very ammunition heavy [with] massive artillery barrages. That’s never how we have organised ourselves to fight in the West and in Nato.
“Ukraine uses huge amounts of ammunition to defend itself, partly that’s why we’re training them to fight in a Western way.
“If they can be very accurate in their use of artillery instead of having to use hundreds of shells to pin down a Russian unit, they can only use two or three because they can see exactly where the shot falls.”
He told Times Radio: “So if we can do both, we can make sure that they are much more effective on the ground. And at the same time, we can make sure that we address our own shortfalls at home.”
Ukraine’s armed forces are thought to be firing about 6,000 artillery rounds a day, faster than the West can resupply them, and around a third of the scale being used by Russia.
Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said that several Western nations were pressing to train Ukraine in tactics that would reduce its reliance on artillery shells.
Bastian Giegerich, the director of defence and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that European nations currently have the capacity to produce about 300,000 heavy artillery rounds of 155mm calibre a year.
“Most industry sources think they could ramp up relatively quickly [this year] by about 50 per cent,” he told The Telegraph.
However, he cautioned “anything beyond that will take longer”, meaning Ukraine needs supplies of ammunition from outside Europe and to transition onto more accurate munitions such as the Excalibur GPS-guided artillery round, in order to repel Moscow’s troops.
Ukraine’s state arms producer said that it had launched joint production of artillery shells with a central European Nato member, but refused to identify the country, adding that it plans to develop and produce other arms and military hardware with allies.
Ukroboronprom said it began producing 120mm mortar rounds, ammunition that is in high demand for the war effort.
Natalia Sad, the company’s spokesman, said: “The emergence of this shell is the first product of our joint co-operation with a country from the [NATO] alliance. It will not end with shells. We will soon show you other products produced with partner countries.”
Ms Sad added that companies were working around the clock to produce ammunition and keep supplies flowing, and that Ukroboronprom increased production on different types of military equipment by five to eight times last year compared with 2021.
Meanwhile, Mr Wallace said that vital military supplies would soon be sent from the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), a pool of funding to finance lethal and non-lethal equipment and training, direct from industry.
The first package from the IFU, valued at roughly £200 million with funds drawn from the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark, will include artillery ammunition, tank spares, drones and electronic warfare and air defence systems.
The Defence Secretary said that the equipment package “will provide a significant capability boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country”.
He added: “The UK-led International Fund for Ukraine demonstrates the commitment of the UK and our Allies to ensure Ukraine receives vital military aid necessary to defend against Russia’s illegal invasion.”
On Tuesday, Germany said it would reopen production lines for 35mm ammunition used by its Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, 32 of which have been sent by Berlin, out of a promised 37.
Although an old system designed for the Cold War, the German Gepards have shown they are excellent at shooting down the low and slow-flying Iranian-made Shahed 136 drones, used by Russia to attack Ukraine’s power plants and other national infrastructure.
For months, Germany has lobbied Switzerland to approve exports to Ukraine of stockpiles of Gepard ammunition, which was manufactured there by a subsidiary of Rheinmetall, the German defence company.
Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defence minister, said that with the new contracts “we will now start our own production of Gepard ammunition at Rheinmetall without delay”.
“The negotiations with Switzerland took time,” he said. “In the end, we were of the opinion that it is better to go our own way faster so as not to be dependent on them.”
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “We continue to place orders to replace ammunition given to Ukraine and have an extra £560 million from the Treasury to increase stockpiles.”
Also on Wednesday, Russia claimed it had broken through two fortified Ukrainian defence lines on the eastern front near Luhansk, although no details were given and the claims could not be independently verified.
(Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
15 Feb 23. Russian Invasion Changed Security Calculations Worldwide, Austin Says. The outcome of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war in Ukraine is profoundly important to Ukraine, Europe and all nations of the world, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said at the end of the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels today.
Austin also chaired a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which brought more than 50 nations to the table to support Ukraine. He discussed the situation confronting the contact group and NATO during a news conference.
Russia is pouring men and materiel into Ukraine, he said. “Those people are ill-trained and ill-equipped, and because of that, we see them incurring a lot of casualties,” Austin said. “That’s their strength: They have a lot of people. Our goal is to make sure that we give Ukraine additional capability so that they can be, not only be marginally successful, they can be decisive on the battlefield and their upcoming offensive.”
Austin said Putin didn’t just assault a peaceful and sovereign and democratic U.N. member state, he’s also threatening the hard-won system of rules and rights that has made Europe stronger and safer for more than seven decades.
He said that given Russia’s advantages in manpower and equipment, Putin expected a cakewalk when his forces invaded Feb. 24, 2022. “Putin expected Ukraine to surrender, and he expected the world to submit,” Austin said. “History will record something very different. History will remember the courage of the Ukrainian people. And history will remember the determination and strength of the NATO alliance.”
A year later, the NATO nations still stand strong in condemning the Russian invasion, and Austin said NATO is more unified and resolute than ever. “We are determined to stand with Ukraine’s brave defenders for as long as it takes,” he said. “And we are also determined to protect every inch of NATO territory.”
If Russia succeeds in destroying Ukraine — Putin’s stated goal — it will be a lesson to all nations that strong nations can invade with impunity. “You could see the scope of the global response again yesterday, when some 50 nations of goodwill gathered for the ninth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group,”he said. “And these challenges were an important part of this NATO ministerial. We talked today about how to ensure that NATO remains prepared to confront the dangers ahead.”
We will never waver in carrying out NATO’s preeminent task. And that task is to defend this great alliance, its people and their territory.”
The NATO meeting examined ways the alliance is putting in place the will expressed in last year’s Madrid Summit to shift NATO’s collective defense and deterrence. “We are strengthening our capabilities for the long term to deter and defend against all threats across all domains,” Austin said. “We’re upgrading our defense plans and putting more forces at higher levels of readiness.”
The ministers looked at the progress made to date and laid the foundation for the next NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. That summit will look to a new defense investment pledge to ensure that the alliance has the resources to carry out these new plans, the secretary said.
Austin said the ministers looked at problems with the NATO nations’ defense industrial base. “We also discussed our progress in building up ammunition stockpiles and boosting defense industrial capacity,”Austin said. “But we still have much more to do. Even as we rush to support Ukraine in the critical months ahead, we must all replenish our stockpiles to strengthen our deterrence and defense for the long term.”
The alliance will not be drawn into Putin’s war, Austin said. The nations will continue to support Ukraine as it defends itself, and the NATO nations will ensure they retain the ability to defend every inch of NATO territory.
“We will never waver in carrying out NATO’s preeminent task,” Austin said. “And that task is to defend this great alliance, its people and their territory. America’s commitment to that core mission is unflinching. America’s commitment to Article Five is ironclad. And we’re proud to work alongside our NATO allies to defend the forces of freedom and to build a safer world.” (Source: US DoD)
15 Feb 23. Putin has limited options to sustain his war on Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE. Ian Stubbs says Russia is suffering its highest casualty rate since the invasion began, but Putin could stop his needless sacrifice of thousands more Russians.
Thank you, Mr Chair. A year ago, we reported to this Forum that Russia’s military build-up had amassed approximately 130,000 troops positioned along Ukraine’s borders and in illegally annexed Crimea.
Russia had deployed: the Iskander-K offensive ballistic missile systems in range of key Ukrainian cities and infrastructure; extensive air defence assets including the S-400 and Pantsir missile systems; and large numbers of air assets including the Su-25, Su-35S, Ka-52 and Mi-8 on a scale not normally seen as part of exercises.
Russia had also imposed unprecedented access restrictions over large areas of the Black Sea and was further bolstering its Black Sea Fleet with reinforcements from other Fleets; including increasing the number of landing ships by more than double.
In the face of this massive military build-up and Russia’s escalating rhetoric, Ukraine had demonstrated remarkable restraint. We had seen commendable attempts by Ukraine, and others, to reduce the risk of miscalculation and de-escalate tensions through two initiations of the Vienna Document Risk Reduction mechanism. But Russia refused to engage, insisting that it saw “no grounds for applying the procedures of the Vienna Document Paragraph 16”. Russia’s argument that the risk reduction mechanism did not apply whilst at the same time presiding over the biggest military build-up in Europe since the Cold War, was a clear indication that Putin had already taken the decision that Russia would invade its sovereign neighbour.
Mr Chair, we also know that the lies, deception and disruptive activity from our Russian colleagues aimed to deliberately undermine efforts by participating States to find a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The Russian delegation’s duplicitous behaviour endures nearly a year later.
Last week, in an interview with Russian State media, our Russian colleague lamented that other delegations were “scrutinising” Russia’s “previous statements, looking for contradictions” – we do not have to look far. In this Forum exactly a year ago, he stated that Ukraine was “stubbornly continuing to impose…an unsubstantiated idea about some kind of Russian aggression”. Russia then invaded Ukraine. Last week, he said that Russia had “made every effort to ensure military-political stability in Europe”, but Russia refused to engage in the very mechanisms designed by this organisation to reduce risk, de-escalate tension and restore stability. When our Russian colleague persists in using this Forum to peddle the Kremlin’s disinformation and propaganda, the contradictions are clear for all to see.
Mr Chair, over the past two weeks, Russia has reportedly suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian military leaders have now likely deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under the so-called “partial mobilisation” and Wagner announced on 09 February that it had halted its prisoner recruitment scheme. The options for Putin and his military leaders to sustain their war of choice appear to be limited: continue to deplete their forces; scale back their objectives; or conduct a further form of mobilisation. But there is another option: Putin could end this war now, withdraw all Russian forces from Ukrainian sovereign territory, and in doing so, stop his needless sacrifice of thousands more ordinary Russian people.
Mr Chair, in the face of Russia’s barbaric invasion and brutal actions, we must all recognise that giving Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and push Russia out of its sovereign territory is the swiftest and only path to a just and lasting peace. In the UK-Ukraine Joint Declaration we signed with Ukraine on 8 February, we reaffirmed our countries’ commitment to stand side by side in the face of Russia’s aggression.
The UK is working with Ukraine to help develop their longer-term force structures and capabilities, to reverse Russian gains and build towards a deterrence force of the future. We will support our Ukrainian friends as they fight to liberate their homeland. Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence will be fully restored. Thank you. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
15 Feb 23. Ukraine to receive multi-million pound capability boost from international fund. The boost to Ukraine’s defence capability includes drones, ammunition, air defence, and electronic warfare
Ukraine will receive capabilities worth millions including tank spares, uncrewed air systems, electronic warfare, and air defence, from the first package of multi-million pound funding from the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU).
The first equipment package was agreed by the UK, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. These partners, along with Iceland and Lithuania, have contributed a collective total of more than £520 million to the fund.
With an expected value of more than £200m, the first package will include vital capabilities in the form of artillery ammunition, maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and spare parts for equipment, including Ukraine’s current tanks.
The first package of IFU support drew bids from both UK and international industry suppliers to meet Ukraine’s lethal and non-lethal equipment provision priorities, with more than 40 countries submitting more than 1,500 proposals across 11 capability areas. The funding agreement demonstrates the UK’s commitment to standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside Allies, we continue to provide training and equipment to the country, with the ability to surge that support should Ukraine come under threat. By making this commitment we will strengthen Ukraine’s position in negotiations, guard its long-term sovereignty and enable Ukraine to deter by denial.
The announcement came today during a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels, attended by Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This equipment package will provide a significant capability boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country.
The UK led International Fund for Ukraine demonstrates the commitment of the UK and our Allies to ensure Ukraine receives vital military aid necessary to defend against Russia’s illegal invasion.”
Following this morning’s NATO meeting, 18 European nations, including the UK, agreed to sign a joint letter of intent to explore and develop a framework for improved surveillance from space, through multinational cooperation and sharing of national space-based capabilities.
The agreement, which will launch the Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space Initiative (APSS), was signed by the UK, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey, and Sweden.
The letter of intent agrees that signatory nations will explore: the potential for sharing data from national surveillance satellites; processing, exploitation, and dissemination of data from within national capabilities; and funding to purchase data from commercial companies. APSS is expected to start operating in 2025.
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the importance of a persistent space surveillance capability, which also forms one of the North Atlantic Council’s agreed strategic outcomes of its Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Vision 2030+.
The announcements come just days after President Zelenksyy made a historic visit to the UK to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and see first-hand how the UK was supporting Ukraine through military training and lethal aid donations.
Bilaterally, the UK supported Ukraine with £2.3bn of military support in 2022 and the Government has committed to matching or exceeding this in 2023. Since the start of the year, the UK has already committed to providing Ukraine with a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, including training, ammunition, and spare parts; AS90 self-propelled guns to boost Ukraine’s long-range capability; and hundreds more air defence missiles. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
15 Feb 23. Norway to donate MBTs and special purpose tanks to Ukraine.
The government has also allocated separate funds to provide associated ammunition and spare parts. Understand the impact of the Ukraine conflict from a cross-sector perspective with the Global Data Executive Briefing: Ukraine Conflict
Norway has confirmed it will donate eight Leopard 2 main battle tanks (MBT) and four special purpose tanks to support Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.
The Norwegian Government has already addressed Parliament regarding this additional assistance package, valued at approximately $7.35bn (Nkr75bn), for Ukraine. Deliveries under this tranche will be fulfilled over the next five years.
Norway is still considering what type of special purpose tanks in the ‘armoured engineering and bridge layer category’ will be delivered to Ukraine under this package.
According to the government, the decision will be based on the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ requirements.
In addition, separate funds have been allocated by the government to provide associated ammunition and spare parts.
Norwegian Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said: “In addition, Norway will also offer $24.53m (Nkr250m) to the EU Ukraine-fund, European Peace Facility. The funds will be earmarked for ammunition and spare parts for the Leopard II.”
Additionally, the Norwegian Government will contribute to train and educate the Ukrainian tanks-crew in Poland, in close coordination with other allied and partner countries.
The new comprehensive package builds on the Norwegian Government’s recent announcement to donate more tanks in response to Ukraine’s request for support.
In the previous announcement, the government confirmed that the new aid package, including tanks, will be provided to Ukraine as a ‘larger multi-year package’.
Gram added: “The decision to donate Leopard 2 tanks and special purpose tanks has been made after close dialogue with both the chief of defence and other European countries.”
The assessment from the defence chief revealed that, after donating additional tanks to Ukraine, Norway will still be able to maintain ‘satisfactory national readiness’, allowing the country’s armed forces to fulfil Nato’s commitments. (Source: army-technology.com)
14 Feb 23. 11 countries to give tanks to Ukraine, as Kyiv is ‘contemplating’ spring offensive: US.
“Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks with fires that achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver,” Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said.
Eleven countries have signed on to send tanks to Ukraine as military equipment donations ramp up in anticipation of a potential spring offensive, according to US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
Speaking in Brussels today after 54 defense ministry delegations met at the latest sitting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Milley also noted that 22 countries have pledged infantry fighting vehicles, while 16 nations have committed to send Kyiv “artillery and munitions.” A total of nine countries are supporting the supply of air defense systems.
“Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks with fires that achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver,” said Milley.
He did not list the 11 tank suppliers specifically, but did refer to the growing number of countries partnering on the international Leopard main battle tank coalition involving Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal and Spain.
Milley did confirm, however, that the US, Czech Republic and the Netherlands are currently “in the process” of delivering refurbished Soviet-era T-72 tanks. The US has pledged a contingent of Abrams main battle tanks as well.
Ukraine has been consistently requesting that supply partners provide tanks, fighter jets and air defense systems to counter a new Russian offensive expected in the spring, but US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pushed back on any notion that a large scale air campaign will be launched imminently by the Russian Air Force.
“In terms of whether or not Russia is massing its aircraft for some massive aerial attack, we don’t currently see that,” he said. “We do know that Russia has a substantial number of aircraft in its inventory and a lot of capability left. That’s why we’ve emphasized that we need to do everything that we can to get Ukraine as much air defense capability as we possibly can.”
Existing air defense supplies include US Patriot platforms and Italy and France offering SAMP/T systems, but those are “not enough,” according to Austin, adding that the US and Contact Group partners will “keep pushing until we get more” in order to best face down Russian threats. The SAMP/T long-range surface-to-air missile defense system has been developed for France and Italy by Eurosam, a joint venture between European weapons maker MBDA and French manufacturer Thales, to counter ballistic missiles, high-speed tactical missiles, UAVs and “highly maneuvering aircraft, in a saturation attack scenario,” according to Thales company literature.
“Our effort currently is to get these [air defense] capabilities into country as quickly as we can, and then integrate those capabilities,” he explained.
He said Ukraine had done an “incredible job” intercepting “recent” rocket and missile fires.
Concurring with US President Joseph Biden’s position on declining to provide American fighter jets to Ukraine, Austin said that he had “no announcements” to make on the matter.
“We’re going to continue to work with Ukraine to address Ukraine’s most pressing needs. They’re contemplating an offensive in in the spring… so we have a lot to get done,” he added.
Discussions around fighter jets continue to be highly sensitive politically, as Washington refuses to entertain F-16 aircraft reaching Kyiv. At the other end of the spectrum, France has previously said there is “no taboo” around the fighter jet issue, though it has still to action a decision. Recently the UK said it would provide training for Ukrainian fighter pilots on Western platforms, but that effort was designed with Ukraine’s post-war military in mind. A lack of progress across the NATO alliance on the matter generally aligns with fears of escalation.
“The issue of aircraft [fighter jets] is not the most urgent issue now,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a press conference today ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting. “But it is an ongoing discussion. And as I’ve said before, we have ongoing consultations among allies on the type of systems allies should deliver to Ukraine. That will continue to evolve.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Breaking Defense.com)
14 Feb 23. Stoltenberg Explains Why Support to Ukraine Still Matters
A year on, support to Ukraine from nations around the world matters more than ever, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels today. Stoltenberg spoke before the alliance Defense Ministerial which, he said, is happening “at a critical time for our security.”
February 24 marks one year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to invade neighboring Ukraine. The Russian leader believed he would have a cakewalk and take the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, but his forces were stopped and driven off. The same occurred in Kharkiv and in Kherson.
Still, “we see no signs that President Putin is preparing for peace,” he said. “What we see is the opposite, he is preparing for more war, for new offensives and new attacks. So, it makes it even more important that NATO allies and partners provide more support to Ukraine.”
The NATO allies will protect every inch of NATO territory, but supporting Ukraine in its fight against naked aggression is crucial as well.
The Russian attack on Ukraine is an affront to sovereignty not only in Europe, but around the world. “This is a war of aggression,” Stoltenberg said. “President Putin — Russia — has attacked a sovereign independent democratic free nation in Europe — Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine has the right to defend itself — the right of self-defense is enshrined in the Charter.”
NATO and NATO nations “have the right to help Ukraine uphold the right for self-defense.”
He noted that the support Ukraine has received has changed as the war evolved. At first, the need was for anti-armor and anti-air weapons. Then, the need shifted to artillery, then air defense. “And now, over the last weeks and months, allies have agreed to further step up significantly when it comes to heavy weaponry: armor, infantry fighting vehicles, but also main battle tanks,” he said.
The type of support has evolved and will continue to evolve, he said. “We need to ensure that Ukraine gets the weapons it needs to be able to retake territory, liberate the lands and win this war and prevail as a sovereign, independent nation,” he said. (Source: US DoD)
14 Feb 23. Austin: Contact Group Continues Stand With Ukrainian People.
After almost a year, the free world still stands with Ukraine as it defends its liberty and sovereignty, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said at the conclusion of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels today.
Austin and Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, praised the coalition that has grown since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Next week will mark a year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. “Our hearts are with the families of all the Ukrainian soldiers killed and wounded, fighting to defend their country, their sovereignty and their fellow citizens,” Austin said.
The secretary said the U.S. also mourns the innocent civilians killed as Russia targets Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. “Russia has inflicted a year of tragedy and terror on Ukraine,” he said. “But the people of Ukraine have inspired the world.”
These nations rallied as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. “Nations of goodwill have rallied together to reject Putin’s vision of a world of chaos where tyrants can trample borders and conquer their peaceful neighbors and break the rules of war,” Austin said. “That’s what this contact group represents. Together, we have made clear that we will support Ukraine’s self-defense for the long haul. And we will move out with the urgency that the moment demands.”
The United States has led this effort, and Austin chairs the contact group, which has grown to 54 nations. President Joe Biden announced another round of assistance to Ukraine earlier this month. This includes more ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, rocket launchers; heavy machine guns to knock down Russian and Iranian drones; and mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles.
Contact group members are supplying Ukraine with main combat tanks, including Challenger tanks from the United Kingdom, reconditioned T-72 tanks from a number of countries, Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and several other countries, and M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States.
The United States also pledged $1.75 billion for critical air defense capabilities.
“At today’s contact group, we joined again with our valued allies and partners to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs, when it needs it,” Austin said. “We continue to work together to provide Ukraine with full combat-credible capabilities and not just equipment. And that’s why we discussed synchronizing our donations into an integrated training plan.”
All told, member states of the contact group have given Ukraine’s defenders more than eight combat brigades, he said.
The military capabilities are important, but knowing how they work and how they work together is more important, and the contact group is an integral part of this effort. “This isn’t about one single capability,” Austin said. “It’s about delivering all the capabilities that we promise. It’s about integrating all these systems together. It’s about working with Ukrainians to help them fight for their freedom.”
Spotlight: NATO
Milley stressed the contact group must stay together. “Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance and act with impunity,” he said. “He was wrong. “Ukraine remains free. They remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger, and Russia is now a global pariah.
“The world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience,” he continued. “In short, Russia has lost. They’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield. But until Putin ends his war of choice, the international community will continue to support Ukraine with the equipment and capabilities it needs to defend itself.”
The contact group is critical to the effort. Of the countries that gathered for the meeting, “11 countries have pledged tanks for Ukraine, 22 have pledged infantry fighting vehicles, 16 pledged artillery and munitions, and nine more pledged air defense artillery,” Milley said. “The group is focused on delivering the capabilities committed and efficiently providing the training, the spare parts, the sustainment and logistics necessary for the full employment of these systems.”
Milley said the war is extremely dynamic. Even as Ukraine is fighting for its survival, the nation is training and evolving for future operations. “Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, and tanks with fires to achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver,” the chairman said. “While Russia has waged this war for far too long, they will not outlast the Ukrainian people, nor the group of allies and partners that met today.” (Source: US DoD)
15 Feb 23. Russian PM Forms Commission for Development of UAS. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree on the formation of a government commission on the development of unmanned aerial systems. The corresponding document is published on the Internet portal of legal information.
“The government of the Russian Federation decides: to form a government commission on the development of unmanned aerial systems,” the document says.
It follows from the document that the key task of the government commission is to prepare agreed proposals for the implementation of state policy in the field of development of unmanned aerial systems and solving problems related, among other things, to the development of the use of these systems in conjunction with the transport system and other sectors of the economy, ensuring integration unmanned aerial systems into the airspace, with the development of the infrastructure that is necessary for the operation of such systems, etc.
On December 31, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a list of instructions for the development of unmanned aerial systems in the country. The corresponding document was published on the Kremlin website. In accordance with it, the government was instructed to form a commission on the development of unmanned aerial systems by February 15. The commission was entrusted to be headed by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.
By June, the Cabinet of Ministers needs to approve a strategy for the development of unmanned aircraft in Russia for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2035, which should identify priority areas for the development of unmanned aircraft, the parameters of this market, annual targets for the development of unmanned aircraft, as well as a list measures being implemented, the volume and sources of their financing. (Source: UAS VISION/News in France)
15 Feb 23. Ukraine Unveils New Kamikaze Drone. Video footage has surfaced online showing the first successful launch of a new type of Ukrainian suicide drone. The drone was reportedly developed by the National Aviation University in Kiev. In the footage, the drone, which is powered by a back propeller, can be seen taken off from an improvised launcher mounted in the back of a mini truck with help from a rocket booster.
Military experts noted that the suicide drone is similar in design to the RZ60 aerial target, which was first unveiled by the Ukrainian firm Ramsay in 2021.
The RZ60 has an operational range of 300 kilometers and can carry a payload weighing up to three kilograms. The new Ukrainian suicide drone will likely have similar specifications, if it was indeed built around the aerial target.
Kiev forces have been using suicide drones since the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine last year. While some of the suicide drones employed by Kiev were built from commercially-avilable drone kits and off-the-shelf electronics, others were built around Soviet-made Tu-141 and Tu-143 jet-powered reconnaissance drones.
In addition to these suicide drones, Kiev forces received hundreds of small loitering munitions from its Western allies, including Polish-made Warmate as well as American-made Switchblade 300/600 and Phoenix Ghost.
Ukrainian suicide drones pose a real threat to Russian military and civilian targets. The threat covers the special military operation zone as well as nearby Russian territory.
Kiev’s drone program is thought to be supported by its Western allies, who are apparently determined to improve Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities. In the face of this threat, Russia will likely reinforce its early warning and air defense network within and beyond the special military operation zone. (Source: UAS VISION/Southfront)
15 Feb 23. Zelenskiy calls for faster military aid as Russia pounds Ukraine’s east.
Summary
• Russia says Ukrainian forces retreated in Luhansk
• Eastern city of Bakhmut prepares for Russian assault
• Ukraine seen launching own offensive in spring -Austin
• NATO working to give Kyiv means to make it work, he says
Ukraine urged allies to speed up the pace of military aid as NATO defence ministers prepared to meet for a second day on Wednesday, while Russia said its troops had broken through two fortified lines of Ukrainian defences on the eastern front.
The Russian Defence Ministry said the Ukrainians had retreated in the face of Russian attacks in the Luhansk region, although it provided no details and Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield report.
“During the offensive … the Ukrainian troops randomly retreated to a distance of up to 3 km (1.9 miles) from the previously occupied lines,” the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.
“Even the more fortified second line of defence of the enemy could not hold the breakthrough of the Russian military.”
The Kremlin has intensified attacks across a swathe of southern and eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, and a major new offensive has been widely anticipated.
Russia’s main effort has been focused on the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk province adjacent to Luhansk.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not mention any significant setbacks in Luhansk in its morning update on Wednesday.
It said Ukrainian units had repelled attacks in the areas of more than 20 settlements, including Bakhmut as well as Vuhledar – a town 150 km (90 miles) southwest of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday said Russia was in a hurry to achieve as much as it can with its latest push before Ukraine and its allies gather strength.
“That is why speed is of the essence,” he said as NATO defence chiefs met in Brussels for two days of talks that continue on Wednesday. “Speed in everything – adopting decisions, carrying out decisions, shipping supplies, training. Speed saves people’s lives.”
Bakhmut’s capture would provide a stepping stone for Russia to advance on two bigger cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk, giving it momentum after months of setbacks ahead of the first anniversary of the invasion on Feb. 24.
“The situation on the front line, especially in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, remains very difficult. The battles are literally for every foot of Ukrainian land,” Zelenskiy said in his evening address on Tuesday.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said there was fighting “around every single house” in Bakhmut.
“The situation remains extremely difficult, but under control of our forces and the front line has not moved,” he said in a YouTube video.
WESTERN SUPPORT
Ukraine is using shells faster than the West can make them and says it needs fighter jets and long-range missiles to counter the Russian offensive and recapture lost territory.
The United States and NATO have pledged that Western support will not falter in the face of a looming Russian offensive.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he expected Ukraine to launch its own offensive in the spring.
“Ukraine has urgent requirements to help it meet this crucial moment in the course of the war. We believe there’ll be a window of opportunity for them to exercise initiative,” he said.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said supplying Ukraine with fighter jets would certainly be discussed but that it was not a focus at the moment.
Russia, which calls the invasion a “special military operation” to eliminate security threats, said NATO demonstrated its hostility towards Russia every day and was becoming more involved in the conflict. Kyiv and its allies call Russia’s actions an unprovoked land grab.
Russia holds swathes of Ukraine’s southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including its nuclear plant, nearly all of Luhansk and over half of Donetsk.
Last year, Russia declared it had annexed the four regions in a move condemned by most countries of the United Nations as illegal.
The upper chamber of Russia’s parliament will hold an extraordinary meeting on Feb. 22 that will focus on adoption of laws on the integration of four regions into the Russian Federation, RIA Novosti reported citing a senior lawmaker.
A U.S.-backed report published on Tuesday said Russia had held at least 6,000 Ukrainian children – likely many more – in camps in Crimea and Russia whose primary purpose appeared to be political re-education.
Russia’s embassy in Washington said Russia accepted children who were forced to flee with their families from the shelling in Ukraine.
(Source: Reuters)
14 Feb 23. Western intelligence shows Russia is amassing aircraft at the border with Ukraine, an indication that Moscow could throw its jets and helicopters into the war to support a stuttering land offensive. The fear of a looming air war in Ukraine has prompted allies to prioritise rapid shipments of air defence assets and artillery ammunition to Kyiv, western officials said, to respond to the shift in approach by Moscow as the almost year-long war enters a new phase. Intelligence shared among Nato allies shows that Russia is amassing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft on the border with Ukraine, according to two officials briefed on its contents. In meetings with allied countries supporting Ukraine on Tuesday, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin highlighted the threat of Russia’s significant remaining air force. “He was very clear that we have a short window of time to help the Ukrainians to prepare for an offensive and that they had some pretty specific needs,” a senior US administration official said. “The Russian land forces are pretty depleted so it’s the best indication that they will turn this into an air fight. If the Ukrainians are going to survive . . . they need to have as many air defence capabilities and as much ammunition . . . as possible,” the official added. In a news conference later on Tuesday, Austin said the US did not see imminent signs of a “massive aerial attack” from Russia on Ukraine, but that Washington and its allies are rushing as much air defence capability to the country as they possibly can. “We do know Russia has substantial aircraft . . . and a lot of capability left,” Austin said. Ukraine’s current air defences were “not enough and we’re going to keep pushing until we get more because that threat is out there”, he said. “We want to make sure they have the ability to protect themselves in the event Russia decides to introduce its air force into the fight.” Since the first weeks of the war, following President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24 last year, Russia has used its sizeable air forces sparingly, relying instead on long-range missiles, artillery and land-based troops. Western analysts had speculated that this could have been due to a fear in Moscow that Ukraine’s air defence systems posed a threat to Russian aircraft, or because its fleet was in poor condition. But intelligence assessments indicate that Russia’s air force is “actually quite preserved”, a senior Nato diplomat said. “More than 80 per cent probably is safe and available . . . So we are expecting that they’re preparing to launch an air campaign and they’ve been trying to [disable] Ukrainian air defences with attacks,” the diplomat said. The warning comes as some 50 western allies used a meeting at Nato’s headquarters on Tuesday to lay out additional pledges of military equipment for Ukraine. The US is expected to announce another assistance package later this week, which will mostly include air defence and ammunition, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukrainian and Nato officials have in recent days warned of ammunition shortages, with western capitals growing concerned at the effect of strained defence supply chains and dwindling domestic stockpiles. These immediate needs trumped longer-term requests for materiel such as fighter jets or quicker shipments of western battle tanks, officials said, given Russia’s new offensive, which Nato said on Monday had already begun. “What Ukraine tells us that they really need is ammunition and additional air defence capabilities,” a western official said. Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday that the arms producer Rheinmetall would restart production of ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns as part of the new push to support Kyiv. The Gepard, which the German military decommissioned in 2010, has proved to be an effective weapon for the Ukrainian military to shoot down drones and low-flying missiles. But ammunition has been running low, and a recent effort by Berlin to persuade Switzerland and Brazil to replenish it from their own stocks ended in failure. (Source: FT.com)
14 Feb 23. Germany chides allies for delays in delivering tanks to Ukraine. Germany’s defence minister has voiced his frustration with European partners who spent months pressuring Berlin to supply tanks to Ukraine but have so far failed to deliver any of the heavy armour themselves. Boris Pistorius said progress made by other countries in sending German-made Leopard tanks had “not been exactly breathtaking, to put it mildly”. Asked if he could understand countries that pushed Germany to send such advanced weapons systems to Ukraine and were now not delivering their own, he said: “As I’m in a diplomatic arena right now, I would just say — not much.” For months, German chancellor Olaf Scholz was reluctant to provide Ukraine with main battle tanks in case that increased the risk of a direct confrontation between Nato and Russia. But he performed a big U-turn late last month, agreeing to send 14 Leopard 2A6s after the US committed to providing 31 M1 Abrams tanks. Scholz has insisted that weapons deliveries should be co-ordinated with allies and that Germany would not “go it alone”. Berlin also announced last month that it would let allies re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and said it wanted to team up with its allies to create two tank battalions of Leopard 2s, equating to about 90 tanks. In addition, the government has approved the export to Ukraine of 178 older Leopard 1 tanks that had been decommissioned in Germany two decades ago and were sold back to private companies. Officials in Berlin had hoped that the flurry of announcements would prompt Germany’s allies to follow through on their promises to send their own contingents of Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Thirteen European armies operate about 2,000 of the tanks, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But so far, apart from Germany, only Poland has approved substantial deliveries. Late last month, Canada announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks and Norway said on Tuesday it was also providing eight. The relatively small commitments have triggered fears that Ukraine might not receive enough heavy armour from the west to deter an imminent Russian offensive. Pistorius said Portugal had agreed to send three Leopard 2A6s — a commitment he described as an “appropriate contribution” for a relatively small country. But there were currently “no talks under way” on sending more A6s, he added. He also said Poland would supply Leopard 2A4s but expressed doubt about their “condition and whether they are operational”. Poland, however, has been more upbeat about the Leopard coalition for Ukraine, saying it was gradually coming together. Defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak said he had agreed with Pistorius that Poland would form a group of nations providing Leopard 2A4s while Germany would concentrate on the Leopard 2A6.
He added that Poland was also in “advanced talks” with Spain. Nato officials told the Financial Times that Berlin was waiting for a coalition of Leopard 2 donors to be formed before sending its own contingent, adding that the plan was to send the two battalions in one delivery. Germany has already begun training Ukrainian tank crews on the vehicles, raising the possibility that deliveries could be delayed if other countries continued to drag their feet. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, said on Monday that “speed and urgency” were critical for Ukraine’s needs. “My top priority is to ensure that the pledges allies have made for infantry fighting vehicles, for armour, for battle tanks, that they are delivered as soon as possible because every day counts,” he added. (Source: FT.com)
14 Feb 23. National moment of silence to mark one year of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Government announces a national one-minute silence on Friday 24 February, marking a year since Russia’s barbaric full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• National moment will pay tribute to the bravery of Ukrainians and highlight the UK’s solidarity with the country, as they continue their courageous fight
• Comes after the historic visit of President Zelenskyy to the UK last week
A national minute’s silence will take place at 11am on Friday 24 February to mark the one-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to lead the nation in silence from Downing Street.
This national moment of reflection will offer the UK public the chance to pay tribute to the courage of the Ukrainian people and demonstrate the UK’s unwavering solidarity with the country.
The government is encouraging individuals and organisations across the UK to participate.
Since the war began, thousands of Ukrainians have been killed defending their freedom from Russia’s appalling onslaught. Millions more have been forced from their homes, with 114,400 Ukrainians finding refuge in the UK under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “As we approach the anniversary of Russia’s barbaric and deplorable invasion of Ukraine, as a nation we pay tribute to the incredible bravery and resilience of the Ukrainian people. Russia’s unjustifiable attack brought war and destruction to our continent once again, and it has forced millions from their homes and devastated families across Ukraine and Russia. I am incredibly proud of the UK’s response, and throughout this past year, the UK public have shown their true generosity of spirit and their enduring belief in freedom.”
Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer said: “One year on from Putin’s illegal invasion, we stand in solidarity with our friends in Ukraine and remember all those who have lost their lives in the pursuit of freedom.
This moment of silence is a time to reflect on the human cost of this conflict and show we stand with Ukraine.”
The national minute’s silence comes following the historic visit of President Zelenksyy to the UK last week. During the visit, the Prime Minister underlined the UK’s steadfast commitment to supporting Ukraine for the long term, ensuring it can secure a lasting peace.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
14 Feb 23. New Russian offensive underway in Ukraine, says NATO.
Summary
• Russia pounds Bakhmut front line in new offensive
• Russia says it has made incremental gains along front lines
• NATO to increase stockpiling of ammunition
• Moldovan president warns of Russian plot to topple leadership
The Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was facing heavy artillery fire as the NATO chief backed reports from officials in the area that Russia had launched a major new offensive, days before the first anniversary of its invasion.
Ukrainian defenders in the eastern city, who have held out for months, were defending new ground attacks under heavy shelling, Ukrainian military officials said.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in one settlement of the Kharkiv region, about five settlements in the Luhansk region and six in the Donetsk region, including in Bakhmut, over the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s military said early on Tuesday.
Positions in Bakhmut have been fortified and only people with a military role were being allowed in, while any civilians who wanted to leave would have to brave the incoming fire, a deputy battalion commander said on Monday.
“There is not a single square metre in Bakhmut that is safe or that is not in range of enemy fire or drones,” Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region, told the Ukrainian national broadcaster late on Monday.
Bakhmut is a prime objective for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and its capture would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and a rare victory after months of setbacks.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, now partially occupied by Russia which wants full control.
“We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, saying it was the start of a new offensive.
The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been spearheaded by mercenaries of the Wagner group, who in the past three days, have made small gains in the northern outskirts of Bakhmut, the British defence ministry said on Tuesday.
The tactical Russian advance to the south of Bakhmut had likely made little progress, the ministry said in a regular bulletin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian forces were trying to surround Bakhmut.
“Thank you to every one of our soldiers who are preventing the occupiers from encircling Bakhmut … and who are holding our key positions at the front,” Zelenskiy said in an evening address.
Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield reports. (Source: Reuters)
13 Feb 23. Defense Ministers to Address NATO’s ‘Race for Logistics.’
NATO is in a race for logistics, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters as he previewed this week’s Defense Ministerial meeting in Brussels, today.
Defense ministers will gather at alliance headquarters to discuss how to best strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defense, and how to best supply Ukraine the arms and training its military needs to defeat the Russian invaders.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is traveling to Brussels to represent the United States at the meeting and also to convene a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
It has been a year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into neighboring Ukraine and tens of thousands have died in the unprovoked invasion. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and millions of Ukrainians have fled their homeland.
Acting on intelligence information, the NATO allies began beefing up forces in the Eastern part of the alliance even before the attacks of February 24, 2022. The United States now has around 100,000 service members based in Europe, with many in the Eastern countries that border Russia. Since then, nations around the globe have rallied to Ukraine, seeing Russia’s attack for what it is — a power grab, looking to overturn the international rules-based order.
“We will step up and sustain our support for Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said during a news conference. “Almost one year since the invasion, President Putin is not preparing for peace, he is launching new offensives.”
It is in the interests of all nations that Ukraine continues to receive this aid. “It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” he said. “Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield. Speed will save lives.”
Putin cannot be allowed to win and reshape the rules-based order. If that happens “the message to him and other authoritarian regimes is that force is rewarded,” the secretary general said. “That would make the world more dangerous and all of us more vulnerable.”
NATO has already done much, but the defense ministers will look to the longer term. The alliance doubled the number of battle groups in the east from four to eight, all backed by major air and naval power. “Now we need to ensure we have the right forces and capabilities for the longer term,” he said. “So, I expect allies will agree new guidance for NATO defense planning. This will be a key driver of capability changes and ensure credible deterrence and defense in the years to come.”
The defense ministers will also look at ways to increase defense industrial capacity and replenish stockpiles. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain.”
He said the wait time for large caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months. “We need to ramp up production, and invest in our production capacity,” he said.
“We have decided to establish a new coordination cell at NATO headquarters, to map our vulnerabilities, and engage with industry,” he said. “This will support our efforts to prevent and counter threats to critical infrastructure, including undersea cables and pipelines.”
Stoltenberg welcomed the recent announcements on new tanks, heavy weaponry and training for Ukraine. “I look forward to further deliveries,” he said. “Our message is clear: NATO stands with Ukraine, for as long as it takes.” (Source: US DoD)
14 Feb 23. Dutch F-35s intercept three Russian military aircraft near Poland – Netherlands’ defence ministry. Two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them out, the Netherlands’ defence ministry said in a statement late on Monday.
“The then unknown aircraft approached the Polish NATO area of responsibility from Kaliningrad,” according to Reuters’ translation of the ministry’s statement.
Kaliningrad is a Russian Baltic coast enclave located between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.
“After identification, it turned out to be three aircraft: a Russian IL-20M Coot-A that was escorted by two Su-27 Flankers. The Dutch F-35s escorted the formation from a distance and handed over the escort to NATO partners.”
The Il-20M Coot-A is NATO’s reporting name for the Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft while the Su-27 Flankers are NATO’s reporting name for the Sukhoi Su-28 fighter aircraft.
Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for a comment. The Netherlands’ defence ministry said that eight Dutch F-35s are stationed in Poland for February and March. (Source: Reuters)
13 Feb 23. Western capitals will lay out additional pledges of ammunition and air defence equipment for Ukraine at a meeting on Tuesday to bolster Kyiv’s forces, officials told the Financial Times, in a gathering of allies that coincides with a planned large-scale offensive by Moscow. The fresh promises of military support come as Kyiv and Nato warn of ammunition shortages confronting Ukraine’s military in the face of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and as western capitals grow concerned at the effect of strained defence supply chains and dwindling domestic stockpiles. These immediate needs trumped longer-term requests for materiel such as fighter jets or quicker shipments of western battle tanks, officials said, given Russia’s new offensive, which Nato said on Monday had already begun. “What Ukraine tells us that they really need is ammunition and additional air defence capabilities,” a western official said. A US official said fighter jets were less important in the near term as Ukraine looked to maintain an edge. “What we really have to concentrate on now is Ukraine’s ability to defend the air and they’ll do that through air defence artillery, equipped with the proper ammunition. Fighter jets are not and will not be as capable against the Russian air force as an integrated air defence system,” said a US official. The official added: “This war has proven to be an artillery duel using mass amounts of artillery ammunition on both sides. The international community will seek to continue to supply Ukraine with the artillery it needs to defend itself.” Air defence support is seen to be necessary because of concerns over the relatively undiminished capability of the Russian air force. Western officials are worried it could be deployed more during Moscow’s spring offensive, which comes after months of Russian retreats in southern and eastern Ukraine. Julianne Smith, US ambassador to Nato, said the purpose of Tuesday’s meeting was to “understand the current requirements on the part of the Ukrainians and then match those requirements with new and additional pledges of assistance”. The gathering could also include talks about a greater number of more direct contracts between Kyiv and western defence companies, brokered and financed by allied countries, two officials said. That would streamline the flow of supplies from production line to deployment, while also acknowledging that western militaries have little more to give from their reserves. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday.
“The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.” Defence officials from some 50 countries allied with Ukraine will meet at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels for a regular meeting of the group, which first assembled at Ramstein US air base in Germany soon after the war began just over a year ago. Ukraine and Russia are engaged in fierce fighting around the town of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which US officials believe could fall to Moscow this week. The town is of little strategic importance but its loss would be a symbolic blow to Kyiv after months of fighting. Russia has also stepped up attacks elsewhere in the Donbas alongside renewed air and missile attacks on other areas of Ukraine as part of apparent shaping operations, designed to begin creating the conditions for a future battle. It has some 300,000 troops in Ukraine as it gears up for a new offensive. Additional ammunition will be crucial as Ukraine seeks to hold off Russia while it awaits more sophisticated weaponry from the US and other allies. Kyiv hopes these supplies will aid in its own spring counteroffensive. Last month the US and Germany agreed to provide main battle tanks. The American heavy armour will take months to arrive but German and British tanks could arrive in the spring. The US, UK and Germany also pledged infantry fighting vehicles, which will help Ukraine’s ability to manoeuvre and conduct combined arms operations. y While Moscow has fallen short of its original war aims, western officials see no signs that it is prepared to change course or rethink its operations. Increasingly Russia is using the sheer size of its forces as an advantage but has suffered steep casualties. American officials estimate about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pressing western allies to send fighter jets, though so far the US and other powers have not obliged. President Joe Biden has said the US will not send F-16s, but Washington officials concede they are likely to provide Ukraine with more sophisticated air power as the war drags on — or at least give a green light to the transfer of F-16s from other powers. The issue of supplying fighter jets will be discussed on Tuesday, two people briefed on the preparations said, while confirming that acquiring the aircraft was a longer-term objective for Kyiv and far less important than pressing needs such as ammunition. (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 23. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s whirlwind tour of European capitals last week to press allies for modern, long-range weapons was only partly successful. Ukraine’s president extracted a pledge from the UK to start training Ukrainian fighter pilots. Britain also made a vague offer of “long-range capabilities”. France, Germany and other allies in the EU were less forthcoming, rebuffing Zelenskyy’s pleas for fighter aircraft while ruling nothing out. Ukraine had more pressing military needs, President Emmanuel Macron said. Undeterred, Ukraine on Friday made a formal request to the Netherlands for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov is set to meet Nato defence ministers in Brussels on Tuesday with the aim to secure “an aviation platform” to protect Ukrainian skies, as well as more tanks and ammunition, he wrote on social media. Artillery and ammunition are Kyiv’s most urgent demands, which deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna told the Financial Times it needed “immediately”. So why is Zelenskyy setting so much store on weaponry that could take months if not years to arrive on the battlefield? It would take six months to train even experienced pilots how to fly an F-16 or another multirole jet and master its weapon systems. American-built M1 Abrams tanks, which are being supplied directly by the manufacturer General Dynamics, are unlikely to be delivered before 2024. Even the refurbished Leopard 1 and 2 tanks may take several months to arrive in the numbers promised. One reason Ukraine is pressing these demands is that it will inevitably have to switch away from Soviet-era equipment for which there are few and finite sources of ammunition and spare parts. Ukraine began the switch to Nato-standard artillery last summer with the first deliveries of US howitzers. A senior artillery officer last week told Ukrainska Pravda, a news outlet, that Ukraine’s armed forces were now firing more Nato-standard 155mm shells than 152mm Soviet-standard munitions, a tipping point in Ukraine’s transition to western-standard kit. Another reason is that Ukraine may be able to use its existing stocks of weaponry more freely if it knows it has replacement equipment arriving at a later date. It can throw more of its Soviet-era tanks into efforts to fend off an imminent Russian offensive, and then use its Leopards and Challengers in its expected counter-offensive later this spring. But Ukraine is also fighting a war of narratives with Russia and just as the Kremlin is telling the Russia people and the world to steel for a long conflict, Kyiv is trying to demonstrate its own resolve — and that of its supporters. Sending modern fighter jets would be a demonstration of the west’s commitment, said Yuriy Sak, adviser to Ukraine’s defence minister. “It would send a powerful message to the aggressor, saying that for Russia this is an unwinnable and unsustainable war because the free nations of the world will stand with Ukraine until victory and will provide Ukraine with all the necessary means that Ukraine needs to achieve this victory soon,” Sak said. Zelenskyy’s intensive lobbying for armaments is partly a response to Russia’s willingness to expend large numbers of its own troops on the battlefield, often for limited gains, said officials and analysts. Moscow mobilised some 300,000 men from September after Ukrainian forces smashed through its thin defensive lines in the north-east of the country to liberate thousands of square kilometres of territory. Now Russia appears to have no shortage of troops to throw into battle. “The two sets of forces and the associated operational concepts are looking very different,” Sir Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, wrote in a comment on Substack. “Russian forces are relying increasingly on sheer weight of numbers while Ukraine’s are relying more on the quality that comes with advanced western systems.” In the fierce fighting for Bakhmut, in the Donbas region, Russian commanders have been sending waves of lightly armed recruits to probe for weaknesses in Ukrainian positions before they are gunned down. The tactics are reminiscent of the first world war but also of Soviet commanders who readily threw their men into battle no matter the human cost. “The Russians’ strategy is to show it is much more resilient to casualties than Ukraine,” said Oleksandr K Danylyuk, head of the Centre for Defence Reforms, a think-tank in Kyiv. “That’s why they are ready to sacrifice as many of their troops as they need to.” Moscow was using its human waves approach on the front lines because it was “detecting the western support was less and less limited”, Danylyuk added. Many of the Russians killed in the battle for Bakhmut are believed to have been criminals recruited from prisons by the Wagner private military company. Last summer, it was conscripts from the occupied provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk who suffered horrific casualties fighting Kyiv’s forces. On his visit to the UK last week, Zelenskyy said that unless Ukraine was given advanced, long-range weaponry including fighter jets, the war could turn into a “stalemate” because of Moscow’s willingness to send so many of its men to die. “Russia has no pity for its own people,” Zelenskyy said. “They keep on throwing people into the battlefield. We have pity. We protect our people.” (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 23. Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying.
Indeed, when Russia invaded Ukraine last February, its allies resisted pleas for offensive aid and followed a narrow definition of protective equipment. In Berlin, leaders initially shied away from aid that didn’t fit the German definition of “defensive.”
That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine.
The evolving approach fits a conflict as fluid as it is unpredictable.
Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time.
Scholz has told Tagesspiegel newspaper he wants Russian President Vladimir Putin to answer one question: “How is the world getting out of this terrible situation?”
Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end.
Their answers are glum: The war will be expensive, cost lives and likely last at least a few years — or even become interminable. It will tax the American and European defense industries, especially when it comes to munitions, and could cause economic ruin in Russia. All this while the possibility of nuclear escalation remains.
And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.
“For this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch of Ukraine or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters during a visit to Germany last month. “That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult.” (Source: Defense News)
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Military And Security Developments
Feb. 17.
- BAKHMUT: Heavy fighting remains ongoing across the Bakhmut line, with Russian forces making incremental gains. Over the last 24-48 hours, fighting has remained particularly heavy around the village of Paraskoviivka, three miles (5km) north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made marginal advances near the village and are attempting to attack it from two directions, while Ukrainian special forces are supporting its defence. On 16 February, Kyiv reiterated calls for all remaining civilians in Bakhmut, estimated at around 6,000, to evacuate the town immediately, though it remains unclear when and if Kyiv will order a military withdrawal from the town.
- BAKHMUT: As the anniversary of the war approaches, Ukrainian forces will likely be under political pressure to deprive the Kremlin of a symbolic (if operationally limited) victory for Putin’s 21 February speech. Given the overall pace of Russian advances, it remains unlikely that Russian forces will succeed in pushing Ukrainian forces out of the town if Kyiv is determined to continue the defence. It is also noteworthy that members of a Wagner Group artillery unit posted a video appeal on 16 February stating that they are ‘cut off’ from ammunition supplies. This indicates possible logistical issues at the front as well as ongoing efforts by Wagner to undermine the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and blame military setbacks on Moscow ‘bureaucracy’.
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces are likely making the most steady progress along the north-western section of the frontline, though the overall pace of the Russian offensive remains slow. Earlier this week the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies reported that Russian forces had advanced to the Synkivka region and had entered Lyman Pershyi, seven miles (11km) north-east of Kupiansk. While we cannot confirm this, Russian forces have likely been making the most notable progress, if still relatively limited, at the north-western section of the Oskil-Kreminna line, south of Dvorichne. Assaults in this direction likely benefit from the relative proximity of the Russian international border – just 15 miles (24km) to the north – and more secure Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) as a result. Further south, the Centre for Defence Strategies has similarly reported that Russian forces succeeded in pushing Ukrainian forces back 0.5-1km near Kreminna, but when they achieved this remains unclear and unconfirmed.
- SOUTHERN: On 16 February the Russian MoD claimed that its forces had destroyed a Ukrainian vessel that had been attempting a sabotage operation across the Dnieper River. While unconfirmed, such cross-river reconnaissance and sabotage operations will continue on both sides for the foreseeable future, but neither side is likely to establish beachheads on the opposite sides of the river.
- CASUALTIES: UK Defence Intelligence estimated on 17 February that Russian regular and private military contractor (PMC) forces have likely suffered between 175-200,000 casualties during the last year of war, including approximately 40-60,000 killed. Defence Intelligence also assessed that Russian casualty rates have increased significantly following the partial mobilisation in September 2022, reflecting Russia’s increasing reliance upon poorly trained (and in many instances poorly utilised) mobilised reservists. Artillery has almost certainly inflicted the highest number of casualties on Russian forces. For comparison, the Soviet Union suffered around 15,000 casualties total during nine years of war in Afghanistan. However, despite the high casualty rates currently being sustained in Ukraine, Moscow is prepared to lose significantly higher numbers of troops as it doubles down on a protracted, attritional war. There are limited indications to suggest that public backlash to the growing casualty rates will threaten the Kremlin’s ability to continue the war in the short to medium term.
- STRIKES: This morning (17 February), the Russian governor of occupied Crimea reported that Russian air defences shot down a Ukrainian drone near a power station in Sevastopol. Two further drones were also shot down over Crimea on 15-16 February, with a large explosion recorded in Armyansk, north of Crimea on 16 February. While the drones reportedly caused no damage to the Sevastopol plant, it remains a realistic possibility that these drone attacks were reconnaissance operations in anticipation of high-profile Ukrainian raids into Crimea to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion on 24 February. Much emphasis is placed on Russian plans for the anniversary, but as we have previously assessed, Kyiv is also likely preparing operations to provide a propaganda boost to the population amid the anticipated Russian strikes. This includes potentially long-range drone operations targeting Russian air bases deep into European Russia.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- ENERGY: The CEO of Ukraine’s national grid operator Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytskyi stated in an interview with Bloomberg on 16 February that the worst Russian attacks on the country’s energy systems are likely over. Kudrytskyi stated that during 15 mass attacks since September 2022, 40% of the country’s energy systems had been seriously impacted. However, as winter begins to draw to a close, the pressure on energy security is now set to ease, even amid continued Russian bombardments. Energy vulnerability and power outages are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, but rising temperatures will ease the pressure on the grid, limiting the scope for prolonged blackouts. Kudrytskyi also claimed that current infrastructure damage inflicted by strikes has reached a ‘plateau’ given Russia’s inability to generate a further deterioration of the energy situation, due in part to improved Ukrainian air defences.
- STRIKES: While Kudrytskyi warned against complacency, there are serious questions around Ukraine’s medium to longer-term air defence capabilities amid growing concerns over potential air defence missile shortages later this year, as we have previously assessed (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 18 November 2022). We still anticipate an intensification of Russian missile strikes during next week’s anniversary, and Russia is actively experimenting with ways to circumvent air defences – including balloon decoys, using ballistic trajectories and firing cruise missiles at night (as happened yesterday). For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 16 February 2023.
- NUCLEAR: A number of European diplomats reportedly told Politico on 16 February that the European Commission will not include sanctions against Russia’s nuclear sector in its upcoming tenth sanctions package, likely to be unveiled next week to mark the anniversary of the war. While unconfirmed, European officials have long raised questions about the practicality of sanctioning Russia’s nuclear sector given numerous member states’ reliance upon Rosatom-supplied technology, nuclear safety equipment and especially fuel for Soviet-designed nuclear power stations. Unnamed EU officials alleged that Hungary is blocking the proposal due to their specific reliance upon Rosatom.
- NUCLEAR: Russia’s nuclear industry already had over USD 100 billion of orders at various stages before the invasion last year, and despite wider international sanctions, orders for Russian nuclear technology, plants and fuel have increased by over 20% in 2022. In Europe, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia remain particularly reliant upon Rosatom technology and fuel, while Rosatom still provides one-fifth of US uranium needs for its plants. Such reliance makes effectively sanctioning and diversifying away from Russia’s nuclear industry very difficult, and such a step remains unlikely in the short term as a result.
- For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our Scenario Planning and Projections and Ukrainian Victory Scenarios and Implications reports.
FORECAST
NEGOTIATIONS: In an interview with the BBC on 16 February, President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out ceding any territory in a potential peace agreement with Moscow. Zelensky’s statement reflects Kyiv’s long-held position on peace negotiations, with Zelensky remaining determined to liberate all Ukrainian territory via military means. He claimed that any concession on land would mean Russia could ‘keep coming back’, and this ultimately aligns with our assessment of Russia’s long-term aims in Ukraine. The Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist objectives in Ukraine, despite the failures of the military to achieve them up until now.
Nevertheless, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated on 16 February that the Russo-Ukrainian war is likely to end at the negotiating table. He assessed that it is ‘almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means’, and that similarly, it will be ‘very, very difficult’ for Ukrainian forces to fully expel Russian forces from the occupied territories. This dynamic ultimately means that the war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with our own base case scenarios anticipating fighting to continue into 2024 as neither side is willing to compromise or able to tip the military balance decidedly in one or another’s favour.
While peace negotiations remain unlikely, lower-level talks continue to bear fruit following the latest prisoner exchange. On 16 February, the Ukrainian Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War confirmed that 10 Ukrainian military personnel and one civilian were exchanged for the same number of Russian prisoners in a one-for-one exchange. Backchannels and lower-level negotiations remain open. These will provide foundations for more substantial talks later down the line – but not in the short or even medium term.
The next test of negotiations and key milestone for cross-party discussions will be the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which expires on 18 March. A senior Ukrainian official confirmed this morning (17 February) that negotiations to extend the deal will begin next week and come amid allegations that Moscow is actively undermining procedures that are causing delays (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 14 February 2023).
Feb. 16.
*No Leopard 2 for Ukraine. European nations including Germany and Holland have withdrawn their pledges to supply Leopard 2 tanks including the advanced Leopard 2 7C. However, they will supply hundreds of Leopard 1s and Poland will supply t-72s. This will limit the scope of the forthcoming Ukraine Spring Offensive requiring 2 tank Battalions. One reason is belived to be the lack of industrial capability which has declined in Europe due to 20 years of Cold war peace.
- OFFENSIVES: On 15 February, the UK’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, reported that the UK has not observed Russia amassing ‘a single force to punch through in a big offensive’. As much as 97% of the Russian army is estimated to be already committed to operations in Ukraine. Wallace also estimated that two-thirds of Russia’s tanks have either been destroyed or are unusable. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) also estimated on 15 February that Russia has lost around 50% of its pre-war numbers of T-72Bs and T-72B3Ms; many T-80s have also been lost.
- OFFENSIVES: Wallace’s assessment aligns with our own; the Russo-Ukrainian war has been an attritional conflict for months, and Russia’s inability to replace large-scale mechanised forces will severely limit opportunities for sweeping manoeuvre operations like those conducted by Russian forces during the first phase of the war in early 2022. Russia’s spring offensive campaign will likely involve its forces increasing pressure along the Donbas frontlines in order to inflict heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces. However, Russia’s lack of manoeuvre units will hinder its ability to attempt flanking operations and/or to generate a breakthrough elsewhere along the front. Nevertheless, as previously assessed, supplementary offensives against Kharkiv oblast, or possibly Zaporizhzhia oblast, are realistic possibilities. However, Wallace’s assessment indicates that the UK does not believe Russia has sufficient reserves to open up a new front.
- BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue to make incremental progress around Bakhmut, though many of the recent Russian claims of advances remain unconfirmed. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have interdicted the M-03 (E-40) highway north of Bakhmut, though geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces retain a foothold in the south-western outskirts of the village of Krasna Hora, located four miles (7km) north-east of Bakhmut. A senior Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) spokesperson claimed earlier on 16 February that Russian forces have now taken all the ‘heights’ around Bakhmut, and that Russia can now interdict all major roads in and out of the town.
- BAKHMUT: On 15 February, the Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated that it will possibly take Russian forces until March or April (i.e. an additional two months) to take Bakhmut. Prigozhin blamed the ‘monstrous bureaucracy’ of the Russian high command for the slow pace of advances – a direct and on-trend criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin’s statement clearly illustrates the friction between Wagner and regular Russian forces. We previously assessed that this dynamic is undermining command and control and unit cohesion with regard to co-ordinating offensive operations. Prigozhin’s personal influence over operations in Ukraine has diminished in the last month. However, his criticisms of the war effort have increased, and he frequently manages expectations with regard to future advances.
- BAKHMUT: The situation in and around Bakhmut is clearly deteriorating for Ukrainian forces; it is likely that Prigozhin’s intervention is partly aimed at undermining the MoD for political reasons, as much as a genuine reflection of Prigozhin’s pessimism over the pace of advances. Nevertheless, Russian forces have only managed to take around 500 square kilometres along the Bakhmut axis in over six months of heavy fighting. Kyiv’s determination to continue defending the town could yet deprive Moscow of a timely victory ahead of the anniversary of the war next week.
- WAGNER GROUP: Prigozhin also admitted that a cessation of the recruitment of prisoners will have an impact on Wagner Group’s battlefield capabilities. This likely reflects the group’s growing problems in replacing its losses, as Moscow has seemingly curtailed its primary source of recruits (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 9 February 2023). The Ukrainian deputy defence minister, Hanna Malyar, also claimed on 15 February that several Wagner Group assault units are losing up to 80% of their personnel around Bakhmut. While we cannot confirm this claim, various other indicators support the notion that Wagner forces are sustaining extremely high casualties. This is partly due to poorly trained and equipped human probing attacks conducted to draw out Ukrainian fire, whereafter more professional units are moved forward to take out identified Ukrainian positions. Such sacrificial units have allowed Wagner forces to infiltrate Ukrainian positions in and around Bakhmut. However, progress remains slow in this highly attritional urban fighting.
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: The pace of Russian advances around Kreminna, Kupiansk and Svatove has likely remained very slow over the last 24-48 hours, with few confirmed advances. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) sources claim that Russian forces are making headway at various points of the line, including the village of Hryanykivka, located ten miles (16km) north-east of Kupiansk. However, Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Grouping of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on 15 February that Russian forces were at that time conducting no ground attacks in Kharkiv oblast. Further south, Russian forces have likely made marginal gains in the forested area near Dibrova, located six miles (9km) south-west of Kreminna. This is difficult to confirm due to the terrain.
- SOUTHERN: Beyond continual low-level reconnaissance operations along the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia lines, there is nothing significant to report.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- AID: Numerous European countries are backtracking on previous pledges to supply Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, raising questions around the timescale and feasibility of Ukraine’s counter-offensive plans later this year. The German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, stated on 15 February that European states will not be able to supply two full battalions worth of Leopard 2s, as was previously promised. Many of the older 2A4 tanks which countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, Poland and Spain have pledged are in poor condition and will need extensive repairs, while Germany’s pledge of more advanced 2A6 Leopards ‘will not reach the size of a battalion’.
- AID: Pistorius’ announcement comes after the Netherlands and Denmark indicated earlier this week that they will not supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 main battle tanks, despite previously indicating that they would do so (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 15 February 2023). The Dutch government instead confirmed earlier on 16 February that it will supply ammunition and spare parts for Leopard 2s, rather than the tanks themselves. Pistorius also stated that the battalion of 2A4s will only arrive in Ukraine at the end of April, later than Kyiv had previously hoped. Delays to the transfers and a reduction in numbers will likely undermine Ukraine’s plans to integrate newly raised armoured battalions of Western tanks into its spring/summer counter-offensive operations. While Ukraine will likely still be able to build competent offensive forces using ex-Soviet and refurbished Leopard 1 tanks, the backtracking on pledges to deliver more advanced systems will likely limit Ukrainian offensive capabilities before the summer.
- GOVERNMENT: The Ukrainian defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, claimed that President Volodymyr Zelensky asked him to remain in post, despite earlier reports that he would soon be replaced following a major corruption scandal. Though this has yet to be confirmed, it is likely that Reznikov will stay in place given that Kyiv has yet to appoint a successor. It remains to be seen whether Reznikov remaining in post will exacerbate internal divisions within the government, the ruling Servant of the People party and/or the Ministry of Defence. However, continuity will mitigate any short-term upheaval within the ministry. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 6 February 2023.
- SANCTIONS: On 15 February, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen revealed the bloc’s tenth package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions include further export bans worth more than EUR 11 billion designed to deprive Russia’s economy of industrial goods, dual use goods and advance technology components. Von der Leyen also announced that for the first time Brussels would add third country entities to the Russia dual use sanctions, specifically seven Iranian entities. While said entities are now prohibited from selling items to aid Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, Tehran will nevertheless continue to expand its military co-operation with Moscow. Von der Leyen also announced Brussels’ intention to crack down further on oligarchs trying to disguise or sell their assets to evade sanctions, and that an overview will soon be organised to identify all frozen assets held by the Russian central bank across the EU. The latest sanctions demonstrate Brussels’ efforts to undermine Russia’s war machine by targeting sectors needed to sustain the war on the battlefield and in the information space. They reflect growing attempts to plug sanctions loopholes; these efforts are likely to gain traction throughout 2023.
- BELARUS: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated earlier on 16 February that his country would only enter the war if Ukraine (or neighbouring NATO states) directly attacked Belarus. Lukashenka has frequently accused Ukraine of planning to attack Belarus. This aligns with the Kremlin’s wider narrative that the Ukrainian Armed Forces pose a threat to all non-Ukrainian speaking Eastern Slavs. While Ukrainian officials have frequently expressed a desire to target Russian air bases and ballistic missile platforms, many of which are based in Belarus, it remains highly unlikely that Ukraine will initiate any cross-border escalation given that this would reduce forces available for any spring/summer counter-offensives later in 2023.
- BELARUS: Lukashenka is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 17 February. Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Secretary Danilov anticipates the meeting will be used by Putin to persuade Minsk to participate in the war directly. This is unlikely to happen. It remains in Russia’s interests to protect its air bases and missile platforms in Belarus from Ukrainian attacks. Furthermore, we have seen no indications of a sizeable build-up of forces that could seriously threaten Kyiv. In addition, Lukashenka extended an invitation to US President Joe Biden to attend a meeting in Minsk with Putin to ‘stop the war’, following Biden’s scheduled visit to Poland on 20-22 February. While Biden will evidently not attend such a meeting, the proposal reflects the framing of potential negotiations to end the war as a matter between Moscow and Washington DC, not Kyiv. Neither side is seriously proposing peace talks
- For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our Scenario Planning and Projections and Ukrainian Victory Scenarios and Implications reports.
FORECAST
STRIKES: Overnight on 16 February, Russian forces launched 36 air- and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at various targets across Ukraine. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny confirmed that 14 cruise missiles and two guided air-to-surface missiles were successfully interdicted. Notably, this represents a lower overall interdiction rate than during previous strikes.
While Ukrainian energy providers stated earlier on 16 February that the strikes had a limited impact on the country’s electricity grid, the targets which were hit include: Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast), Kropivnytskyi (Kirovohrad oblast), Lviv (Lviv oblast) and Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk oblast). It should also be noted that a fragment of a Russian missile landed inside Moldovan territory. This is the fourth time this has happened since the invasion, and aligns with our assessment that the Kremlin will continue using strikes in neighbouring Ukraine to destabilise Moldova (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 13 February 2023).
The Ukrainian Air Force also confirmed that numerous Russian balloons were shot down over Kyiv ahead of the 16 February strikes. Ukraine’s Air Force Command assessed that these balloons were used as ‘false targets’ by Russia to identify air defences and deplete Ukrainian air defence ammunition. While the focus on such balloons has increased in recent weeks, including incidents in North America and the recent closure of Moldovan airspace due to potential balloon activity (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 15 February 2023), Russian forces have used such ‘false targets’ in the past to distract Ukrainian air defences.
The missile strikes were notably less intensive than those conducted on 10 February, when over 70 cruise missiles were launched (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 February 2023). As such, the latest strikes were highly likely designed to test Ukrainian air defences in order to aid operational planning for the anticipated strikes to mark the upcoming anniversary of the war. Aligning with our own assessment, Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Secretary Danilov stated on 16 February that Russian forces are preparing for further rounds of mass strikes on 23-24 February. Further reconnaissance and probing attacks designed to identify gaps and steadily wear down Ukrainian air defences are likely in the run-up to the anniversary. Nevertheless, every round of strikes which Moscow launches will ultimately reduce the number of missiles available for a massed assault designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences in a single, catastrophic attack.
Georgia: Draft Russian-style foreign agent law heightens operational risks for NGOs, Western entities. On 14 February, members of the government-affiliated People’s Power party officially registered the draft law on ‘transparency of foreign influence’ in parliament. The proposed law requires a comprehensive financial revenue and expense declaration from those classified as ‘foreign agents’. The draft defines an agent of foreign influence as an entity that receives more than 20% of its income from a foreign power. The terms closely align with Russia’s own foreign agent law which has complicated the operating environment for foreign-linked entities in Russia. While it remains unclear when the law will be enacted in the Georgian Dream-dominated parliament, the likely eventual adoption of the law would confirm the increasingly anti-Western stance of the Georgian government. The operations of foreign entities, such as media companies and NGOs, that benefit from Western financing, will likely be undermined or restricted, particularly if they are deemed to be critical of the government.
Kazakhstan: Clampdown of ex-president’s clan will likely mitigate risk of unrest ahead of election. On 15 February, Kazakh President Kassim-Jomart Tokayev signed into law a bill that strips the immediate family of former leader Nursultan Nazarbayev of legal immunity. It also annuls Nazarbayev’s lifetime financial support by the state treasury, as well as security protection provided to him and his family members. The timing of Tokayev’s move to deprive Nazarbayev and his family of such privileges is clearly aimed at distancing himself from his predecessor ahead of a snap parliamentary election scheduled for 19 March. The bill is likely to appeal to Kazakh nationals who are critical of corruption, which was a key trigger for mass anti-government demonstrations in January 2022. As such, the clampdown on the Nazarbayev clan’s grip on the economy and political influence will likely mitigate the risk of unrest, though the prospects for genuine governance reforms following the upcoming election remain unclear.
*A Russian missile hit a critical infrastructure site in Lviv as Russia launched a fresh wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on Thursday. A fire broke out in the western city of Lviv but was brought under control. It comes as Russia fired a combination of 36 cruise and other missiles losing at least 16 of them to Ukrainian air defence batteries, Ukrainian officials said Thursday.
The head of Ukraine’s presidential office said targets had been hit in the country’s north, west and south. (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
Feb. 15.
Cyber Update.
Key Points
- During this monitoring period, we observed an increase in pro-Russia distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks targeting Japan, Sweden and NATO. Pro-Russia hacktivists also continued to target the healthcare sectors of countries supporting Ukraine with DDoS attacks. Meanwhile, ongoing Russian censorship efforts to prevent anti-Putin and/or other inflammatory content underscore increasingly concerted efforts by the Kremlin to crack down on dissidents in the country.
- We also observed an ongoing trend in pro-Kyiv cyber operations targeting Russian government-affiliated businesses. This will likely persist during the run-up to the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, sanctions imposed by the UK and the US against the Russia-affiliated ransomware group Trickbot highlight that there are ongoing efforts to disrupt cyber operations aimed at financially supporting Russia.
Latest Significant Updates
Pro-Russia cyber attackers target aircraft operating as part of Syria, Turkey earthquake relief efforts; other pro-Russia hacktivists shift target selection to include Japanese firms
- On 14 February, the Russian authorities launched a new web crawler called Oculus to detect videos and images of protesters, ‘positive depictions’ of LGBTQI+ culture and memes criticising Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of their ongoing attempts to block ‘fake information’.
- On 13 February, the pro-Russia hacktivist group NoName05716 claimed to have shifted its target selection to include Japan. It reportedly conducted a DDoS attack against the technology company Panasonic; the date of the attack is not clear.
- On 12 February, the pro-Russia hacktivist group Killnet disrupted the communication systems of aircraft providing aid to victims of the recent earthquakes in Syria and Turkey. The group was supported by the pro-Russia hacktivist groups Mistnet and Usersec.
- On 10 February, the pro-Russia hacktivist sect Anonymous Sudan launched DDoS attacks against the websites of hospitals, medical facilities and airports in Sweden as part of an ongoing effort to support Anonymous Russia.
Pro-Kyiv hacking groups sustain attacks against Russian-controlled businesses; sanctions against ransomware groups will likely prompt retaliatory attacks against Western entities
- On 14 February, the IT Army of Ukraine announced that it had leaked the personal data of around 38,000 consumers of Vodokanal Cheboksary, a water utilities company in Russia.
- On 12 February, the pro-Kyiv Italian sect of Anonymous, AnonSecIta, targeted various companies belonging to Vladimir Potanin, a Russian oligarch, via DDoS attacks. The affected companies include:
o Norilsk Support Complex (a producer of structural metals for the Norilsk industrial hub)
o Srk Arena-Norilsk (a shopping centre in Norilsk)
o AK NordStar (a Russian airline company)
o Kolabyt (a transport company)
o Arktik-Energo (an electricity distribution company)
o Kola MMC (a producer of nonferrous metals)
- On 10 February, Team OneFist and Anonymous RoughSec, a sub-group of the decentralised Anonymous collective, alleged to have hacked a Russian facial recognition software company (HikVision) and leaked its files.
- On 9 February, the UK and the US jointly imposed sanctions against seven Russians associated with the ransomware group Trickbot.
- BAKHMUT: On 14 February, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that his forces are nowhere near completing an encirclement of Bakhmut due to the Ukrainian defence, though Russian forces are likely making marginal gains to the north and south of the town. The Washington Post this week cited unnamed US military planners who consider it ‘unrealistic [for Ukrainian forces] to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counter-offensive’. President Volodymyr Zelensky did acknowledge on 14 February that the situation across Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remains ‘extremely difficult’. We have previously assessed that President Zelensky’s decision to hold Bakhmut is likely driven by political as much as military considerations, given that the town has assumed symbolic importance for both sides (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 6 February 2023).
- BAKHMUT: On 15 February, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) stated that Russia’s strategy in attacking Bakhmut and Vuhledar is aimed at delaying Ukraine’s counter-offensive. It remains unclear if and when Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the town given both sides’ heavy losses, and whether committing reserves and resources to its defence will severely undermine preparations for Ukraine’s own spring counter-offensive. However, in this highly attritional conflict, denying the town to Russian forces while inflicting heavy casualties will likely also undermine Russian offensive momentum, thereby limiting Russian advances elsewhere. Regardless, if the defence of Bakhmut proves protracted in the coming weeks, there is a realistic possibility that additional resources will need to be diverted away from preparations for a counter-punch later in the spring.
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces continue to apply pressure along the Luhansk axis, but progress remains slow and serious offensive momentum has not been generated. Over the last 24-48 hours, numerous Russian sources have claimed various Russian advances along both the Kupiansk and west Kreminna directions, but they remain unconfirmed. Geolocated footage does suggest Russian armoured units have made incremental gains west of Kreminna, but advances remain small. Ukrainian governor of Luhansk oblast Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces are constantly probing Ukrainian defences along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and are bringing up mobilised reserves to plug holes and reinforce. Nevertheless, Haidai once again warned that Ukrainian forces are anticipating large-scale offensive operations in the coming days as Russian forces likely aim to retake lost positions in Luhansk oblast under orders from President Putin.
- SOUTHERN: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces, Natalya Humenyuk, reported on 14 February that Russian forces are attempting to demonstrate advanced capability across the Kherson axis and give the impression of preparations for further offensive operations in the area. Our assessment remains unchanged, that Russian forces are unlikely to launch major offensive operations across the Dnieper River in the short term, given limited capability on the southern (left) bank of the river, and the clear prioritisation of the eastern front. Raids along the Dnieper will nevertheless continue, and satellite imagery released this week confirms that Russian forces have constructed additional defences and trench lines across Kherson oblast.
- BORDERS: This morning (15 February), the head of the Russian Kharkiv occupation administration Vitaly Ganchev claimed that all settlements in Kharkiv oblast which had been under Russian control until September 2022 ‘will now be systematically liberated’. It remains unclear whether Ganchev’s statements reflect genuine Russian plans to retake parts of Kharkiv oblast, or whether it forms part of an information operation designed to fix Ukrainian positions around Kharkiv and distract from the main effort in the Donbas. We continue to monitor Russian military build-ups along the border with eastern Ukraine amid potential preparations for a supplementary offensive against Kharkiv oblast. We have previously assessed that Russian forces likely aim to retake the land lost during Ukraine’s Kharkiv counter-offensive last year, and while the Luhansk offensive continues to build momentum, the possibility of a fresh front south of Belgorod remains a realistic possibility.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- AID: Today (15 February) marks the second day of the Ramstein-9 summit in Brussels. While further announcements of aid are likely, the German outlet Welt reported on 14 February that the Netherlands and Denmark will not supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 main battle tanks, despite previously indicating that they would do so. They will reportedly finance the refurbishing of 100 German Leopard 1 tanks instead. However, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated that the second day of the summit will focus on tanks, with Kyiv likely attempting to lobby these governments for the tanks and expand the tank coalition. German defence minister Boris Pistorius also stated on 14 February that supplying Ukraine with fighter jets is not currently the focus, with the provision of air defences and ammunition more important.
- AID: Amid the Ramstein summit, the Washington Post this week cited an unnamed US official that has claimed that Washington D.C. is privately impressing on Ukrainian officials that US military aid to Ukraine is not unlimited. This feeds into wider concerns around the West’s ability to continue providing ever larger quantities of equipment and munitions while also retaining their own defence capabilities in the absence of a massive ramping up of military-industrial production.
- MOLDOVA: On 14 February, Moldova and neighbouring Romania closed their respective airspace due to reports of unidentified aerial objects ‘similar to a weather balloon’ picked up on radar at a height of 11,000m over Moldova’s northern airspace. Romanian MiG-21 LanceR aircraft searched the area but found no identifiable object. The development comes shortly after various Chinese high-altitude balloons and other flying objects have been identified over the North American continent. The temporary closure of Moldovan airspace caused major travel disruption and resulted in dozens of flights being cancelled or rescheduled. Tensions remain extremely high in the country following Chisinau’s accusations that Russia is actively plotting to destabilise and topple the pro-Western government, and further security scares are likely in this particularly febrile atmosphere. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 13 February 2023.
- DIPLOMACY: On 15 February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on Russia’s updated foreign policy concept, which he stated will be focused on ‘the need to end the dominance of the West in international life’. Lavrov echoed long-held Russian foreign policy priorities, largely framed around Russian and wider international sovereignty amidst US ‘unipolarity’. Lavrov also stated that the West has ‘reached a point of no return’ in its alleged attempts to turn Ukraine into an ‘anti-Russian foothold’. Ultimately, the updated foreign policy concept reflects a continuation rather than a major shift in Russian foreign policy – but it clearly underlines Russia’s growing role as a global disruptor aimed at undermining Western interests and the international rules-based order.
- ANNIVERSARY: The Russian upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, has confirmed today (15 February) that it will bring forward a meeting from 1 March to 22 February, just two days before the anniversary of the invasion. As we have previously reported, President Vladimir Putin is set to address the Russian parliament on 21 February, and so the revision to the upper chamber’s timetable could indicate preparations for a rapid rubber stamping of any presidential decrees Putin announces on that day. For further analysis of what this announcement could entail, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 February 2023.
- For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our Scenario Planning and Projections and Ukrainian Victory Scenarios and Implications reports.
FORECAST
OFFENSIVES: This morning (15 February), the Financial Times reported that intelligence shared among NATO allies indicates that Russia is massing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft along the border with Ukraine, in possible preparations for an aerial offensive. While such aircraft are unlikely to directly target civilian areas, they could be used more aggressively to support ground operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts. Such operations would likely attempt to generate offensive momentum and make up for Russia’s limited ground manoeuvre capabilities.
However, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated yesterday (14 February) that the US is not seeing imminent signs of a ‘massive aerial attack’, but acknowledged that the Russian Aerospace Forces retain substantial capability and that Ukrainian air defences are currently insufficient. Satellite imagery covering airbases in Belarus does not seem to indicate a notable increase in fixed-wing aircraft numbers this week, though numbers at airbases inside Russia are seemingly growing.
In recent months, Russian forces have been making greater and more effective use of air force assets to support operations in eastern and southern Ukraine, which underlines the growing importance of air defence transfers to Ukraine. This is likely in part due to the previous Russian commander Sergei Surovikin, who remains the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS). Russia still retains a significant preponderance in offensive fixed-wing aircraft, but due to Ukrainian air defences, they have not been utilised as aggressively as in other conflict zones – for example in Syria. However, if Ukrainian air defence capabilities diminish or are spread too thin, this could yet provide Russia future opportunities to make greater use of its highly effective fixed-wing bomber fleet. For further analysis of the threat of increased use of such assets and its potential implications on civilian areas, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 18 November 2022.
Montenegro-Russia: Prigozhin’s admission of links to Internet Research Agency underscores threat of Russian interference in presidential election. On 14 February, the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, admitted having founded and financed the Internet Research Agency, a troll farm accused of targeting the 2016 US presidential elections. Prigozhin’s statement underscores the systemic capabilities Russia likely attempts to employ to interfere in elections. Prominent upcoming electoral cycles are likely to remain vulnerable to such interference, such as the Montenegro presidential elections on 19 March. In the October 2016 parliamentary elections, Russia was accused of planning to destabilise the country by supporting a coup. Having joined NATO in 2017, Montenegro’s political environment has since seen a struggle between pro-Western and pro-Russia political factions. Given Russian interests in the country, and recent Moldovan allegations that Montenegrin citizens have been involved in plans to destabilise the country, electoral inference remains likely during the election, though it is unlikely to prove seriously destabilising.
Ukraine: Possibility of EU accessing frozen Russian funds highlights potential reconstruction opportunities. On 14 February, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced that the EU will launch a working group to determine how Russian funds can be utilised for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Kristersson noted that Moscow must pay for the restoration of Ukraine but highlighted potential legal hurdles in accessing the funds. According to officials, the decision regarding the group’s remit will be taken on 15 February. In November 2022, the European Council (EC) proposed creating a structure to manage the EUR 300bn (USD 321.8bn) of frozen Russian central bank assets and EUR 19bn (USD 20.3bn) seized from Russian oligarchs. However, officials revealed that only the proceeds could be relayed to Kyiv. While Stockholm’s announcement signals a positive step that highlights potential reconstruction opportunities for businesses, it is likely that the plan will face legal difficulties in how to access the funds and what assets can be used for rebuilding Ukraine.
Feb. 14.
- BAKHMUT: Ukrainian commanders and military officials have now acknowledged that Russian forces are able to interdict the two principal ground lines of communications (GLOCs) supplying Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut. Ukrainian supplies must now be delivered along low-capacity back roads. Ukrainian forces are also now facing difficulties in using heavy weaponry inside the town, including artillery and tanks, due to the close-quarters urban fighting. Russian forces are continuing to encroach steadily around Bakhmut, and it remains unclear if or when Ukrainian troops will decide to withdraw in order to preserve their forces and prevent an encirclement.
- BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces have dropped a key bridge along the N-32 (T-0513) highway around five miles (8km) west of Bakhmut. The bridge connected the town to Kostyantynivka – which we previously assessed as a possible Ukrainian fall-back position. Ukrainian officials continue to deny that they are planning a withdrawal from the town. However, the Donetsk regional administration has now also restricted journalists’ access to Bakhmut and the surrounding region, citing Russian operations to penetrate the town. Such developments possibly point to preparations for a withdrawal, though this remains unclear. Russian sources reported earlier on 14 February that heavy fighting is ongoing around Paraskoviivka, a settlement located three miles (5km) north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora. Further reports of Russian advances to the west cutting off the M-03 (E40) highway cannot be confirmed at this stage.
- DONETSK: Russian forces have continued to attack west of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar over the last 24 hours; they are unlikely to be making any notable progress despite high casualty rates.
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and eastern Kharkiv oblasts continue to build, though advances are so far likely to be fairly limited. Various Russian sources have claimed limited progress at various points of the Oskil-Kreminna front, particularly in the Kupiansk and west Kreminna directions. However, these advances remain unconfirmed. Despite the seemingly limited gains achieved by Russia’s Luhansk offensive so far, Russian sources have in recent days claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing defensive positions and bringing forward reserves in anticipation of large-scale Russian advances in the coming days and weeks. Russian sources have also emphasised the deployment of elite Spetsnaz units, claiming they are supporting Russian operations as the offensive continues to build. For further analysis of Russian offensive capabilities during the spring offensive, see FORECAST below.
- BORDERS: Satellite imagery released this week confirms that Russian forces have established new field camps and staging grounds near the Pogonovo Training Ground in Voronezh oblast. While the force numbers currently arrayed at the new camps are limited, there remains a realistic possibility that Pogonovo and other bases will be used as staging grounds to gather forces intended either to support the ongoing offensive in Luhansk oblast, or to open up a supplementary offensive against Kharkiv oblast, which we previously identified as an option for Russia. If Russia’s offensive operations along the Oskil-Kreminna line continue to achieve limited results and/or fail to create a breakthrough, Russian commanders will possibly look to open up a supplementary offensive. At the very least, they will attempt to conduct convincing spoiling attacks along the Kharkiv border in an attempt to draw off Ukrainian forces and reserves so as to relieve pressure on the Luhansk line. We will continue to monitor for signs of build-ups in the Kharkiv-Belgorod border region.
- SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report.
- MOBILISATION: Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), stated this week that Russia will likely postpone its second wave of partial mobilisation due to difficulties which have not yet been resolved following the initial wave in September 2022. As we previously assessed, the war is solidifying into an attritional conflict. Furthermore, all indicators point to Russian forces sustaining extremely high casualties (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 13 February 2023). As such, it remains likely that Moscow will need to initiate new rounds of mobilisation – or commit conscripts to the frontline – in order to sustain offensive operations later in 2023. In the meantime, crypto-mobilisation likely remains ongoing; preparations to shore-up security at state borders likely reflects a general effort to mitigate the threat of a further mass exodus of military-aged men following future mobilisation announcements.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- GRAIN: On 13 February, the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure accused Russia of ‘sabotaging inspections’ of agricultural vessels bound for Ukrainian ports. This comes ahead of the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on 18 March. As of 12 February, there were reportedly 145 vessels in the Bosphorus (Turkey) awaiting inspection by the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC). Over the last week alone, 25 ships have exported around 1.1 million tonnes of agricultural products to markets in Africa, Asia and across Europe. However, delays and the alleged ‘sabotage’ of inspection regimes have caused a decrease in the number of ships arriving at Ukrainian ports in recent months. Kyiv estimates that since 1 August 2022, 732 ships have left Ukrainian ports, exporting around 21m tonnes of food. However, Kyiv states that the total volume should have exceeded 35m tonnes if the normal inspection conditions agreed upon by all sides had been respected. With the renewal of the BSGI approaching, delays will likely continue disrupting agricultural exports. While it remains likely that the deal will be extended, Moscow will possibly seek to increase its leverage to extract additional concessions or delay the implementation of the deal in the short term. In addition, Naval mines are an ongoing threat.
- AID: The latest meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group – Ramstein-9 – will take place at the NATO headquarters in Brussels (Belgium). Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov will attend the meeting and discuss various military aid issues (including the provision of fighter jets) with his counterparts across NATO. The US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, confirmed that eight nations will supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks: Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal and Spain; training for Ukrainian personnel on these tanks is already underway in Poland and Canada.
- AID: Following the success of the ‘tank coalition’ at Ramstein-8, Kyiv is pushing for fighter jet transfers. However, enthusiasm to provide Ukraine with F-16 and other fighters is likely diminishing across Europe amid growing concerns about a worsening production gap that threatens to seriously undermine European and US capabilities. Poland has indicated that it is unlikely to transfer jets without a wider NATO coalition doing so; the US has previously ruled out transfers in the short term. In addition, unnamed US officials cited by Politico on 13 February claimed that the US will not send long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) systems to Ukraine due to the US’ own limited stocks.
- ESCALATION: On 13 February, the Dutch Ministry of Defence reported that two of its F-35s had intercepted three Russian aircraft near Poland. A Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft and two Sukhoi Su-27 (Flanker) fighters were part of the Russian formation that approached NATO airspace, operating from Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad. Initial reporting suggested that the Russian formation had entered Polish airspace, but this was inaccurate. Ultimately, this incident is not a reflection of an escalation along the Polish-Kaliningrad border, given that Russian aircraft frequently test the defences of NATO across Europe; further such incursions are likely.
FORECAST
OFFENSIVES: Moscow’s spring offensive campaign is still in its initial stages. Russian advances have so far remained limited, raising questions about its offensive capabilities and ability to make major gains via manoeuvre operations. The Ukrainian General Staff this morning reported that Russian commanders are now promising troops daily cash incentives to participate in assault operations, including bonuses for every kilometre they advance.
Cash incentives have been used by Russian forces in the past in an attempt to generate momentum, and likely reflect the overall lack of professional training and low morale of units increasingly dominated by mobilised soldiers across the frontline. The failure of the recent attack against Vuhledar and the apparent injection of the previously elite 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet with poorly trained mobilised reservists likely reflects the wider institutional problems with Moscow’s growing reliance on mobilised forces.
Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s efforts to professionalise and centralise the command and control of Russia’s military coalition are also facing backlash. This will likely further undermine Russian offensive capabilities and morale. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed on 13 February that Russian mobilised personnel who have been integrated into former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps units (now part of the centrally-controlled Southern Military District) are refusing to take part in offensive operations. Building on the progress made by his predecessor and deputy, Sergei Surovikin, Gerasimov is clearly attempting to improve Russia’s command and control over all units fighting in Ukraine. However, initiating such reforms during an offensive phase is clearly generating friction between and within units. This will likely undermine the spring offensive, even if such reforms are necessary in the long term to improve Russia’s capabilities.
Moldova: Russian destabilisation campaign set to intensify amid threat of coup and pro-Russian unrest. On 13 February, Moldova’s President Maia Sandu accused Moscow of planning to oust the nation’s government. Sandu alleged that the plot “included military trained personnel disguised as civilians, meant to carry out violent actions, attacks on government buildings and take hostages”. Sandu added that foreign nationals would also enter the country to stage protests in a bid to change the government. Moldova’s pro-Moscow Șor party has already announced plans to rally outside of the nation’s parliament on 19 February. However, these protests alone are unlikely to translate into a major threat to the government’s stability in the short term. If Chisinau proceeds with a NATO application, Russian efforts to destabilise the country would likely accelerate, with bomb scares, border provocations, false-flag operations and destabilising protests all realistic possibilities in the coming weeks.
Feb. 13.
*In the excellent bi-weekly Sibylline 1600 online brief on February 13th, Justin Crump confirmed that although the Russians are reported to be losing 824 men per day and on one front 120 vehicles and 30 tanks, they are in tis for the long term and are prepared to take the war into late summer and beyond. Their ‘Grinding’ tactics are relying on the inability of Ukraine to obtain sufficient ammunition to return the sustained Russian artillery bombardment.
- OFFENSIVES: On 13 February, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces had ‘advanced 1.2 miles (2km)’. However, Ukrainian sources cast doubt on Russia’s ability to launch any such large-scale offensive operations. The Russian offensive in northern Luhansk oblast continues to ramp up, and we are likely only in the beginning phases of the spring offensive campaign. However, Russian advances along the Oskil-Kreminna and Bakhmut lines remain fairly limited. Russian activity along the Oskil-Kreminna line in particular points to Russia’s constrained capabilities to conduct manoeuvre warfare at scale.
- CASUALTIES: The UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) claimed on 12 February that over the last two weeks Russian forces have likely suffered their highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion in 2022. While we cannot confirm the estimated casualty figures provided by the Ukrainian General Staff, DI concurs with Kyiv’s data, which reveals that Russia has been sustaining 824 casualties every day on average for the last week – over four times higher than the rate reported in June-July 2022. While estimating Ukrainian casualties is also very difficult, the intensity of the fighting and the reports from the frontline clearly indicate that Ukrainian forces are also sustaining high casualty rates. However, given the defender’s advantage, Ukraine is unlikely to be sustaining the same rates as the Russian attackers. Nevertheless, these reports and the wider intensification of the Russian offensive indicate that this next phase of the conflict is likely to be just as attritional as the fighting throughout the months beforehand.
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Operational Command East Serhiy Cherevatyi reported on 12 February that Russian forces have ramped up their rate of artillery fire across the frontline and have ‘set records’ for shelling along the Oskil-Kreminna front in recent days. As we reported last week, we anticipate a steady intensification of offensive operations as Russia builds momentum in the opening phases of its spring offensive campaign. However, conflicting reporting still makes it difficult to confirm the rate of Russian advances. Nevertheless, the Russian MoD claimed that on 10 February their forces had taken the whole of Dvorichne, located at the northern-most section of the Oskil-Kreminna line in Kharkiv oblast. While this is unconfirmed, Russian forces have been steadily increasing pressure in the direction of Dvorichne-Kupiansk, which likely forms part of the Russian objective to push Ukrainian forces back beyond the Oskil River in the coming weeks. Russian forces have also continued pushing west of Kreminna, with indications that elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division are supporting operations there. However, we cannot confirm such advances in the area at present.
- BAKHMUT: Russian forces have continued to make steady ground around Bakhmut, setting conditions for the eventual operational encirclement of the town. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private military company (PMC), claimed on 12 February that his forces had taken the village of Krasna Hora, located four miles (7km) north-east of Bakhmut. Earlier on 13 February, the Russian MoD also confirmed the seizure of the settlement. Notably, the Ukrainian General Staff omitted the town from its daily morning report, further suggesting that the town has been taken. Prigozhin reiterated his claim that Wagner fighters are leading operations in the area, stating that ‘within a radius of 31 miles (50km) […] there are only PMC Wagner fighters’. This is highly unlikely to be accurate given numerous indications from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that regular Russian units, including ostensibly elite airborne VDV elements, have been supporting operations north of Soledar and around Bakhmut in recent weeks. It also likely reflects Prigozhin’s attempts to amplify the Wagner Group’s role in the Bakhmut offensive amid the MoD’s reassertion of authority in Ukraine, which continues to undermine his influence.
- OFFENSIVES: Prigozhin also stated on 12 February that it could take Russian forces two years to capture the whole of the Donbas. He repeated his calls for a full mobilisation of the Russian state to enable Moscow to achieve its goals in Ukraine and effectively confront NATO. Prigozhin’s criticism of the current pace of the war effort is likely partly framed by political considerations and his ongoing feud with the MoD and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. However, it also likely acknowledges the realities on the ground as Russian forces struggle to gain momentum. As we have assessed for several months, the war in Ukraine is a highly attritional conflict that is unlikely to end soon. Moscow is preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine, with fresh rounds of mobilisation likely in 2023.
- DONETSK: The Russian offensive against Vuhledar appears to be stalling, and there are numerous indications that Russian forces are sustaining heavy losses. The Ukrainian spokesperson for the Tavriisk Direction Defence Forces, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, claimed earlier on 13 February that ‘a large number’ of Russian personnel have surrendered, including elements of the 40th and 155th naval infantry brigades. Dmytrashkivskyi claimed that in the past week Russian forces have lost large amounts of equipment as part of their failed attack. These losses reportedly amount to 130 vehicles, including 36 tanks. While we cannot confirm these reports, footage of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian mechanised column near Vuhledar triggered major backlash within Russian milblogger communities.
- DONETSK: Several Russian sources have commented that the assault on Vuhledar has now ended due to poor tactics and command and control. Some Russian commentators have directly accused the commander of Russia’s Eastern Grouping of Forces, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, of repeating the failures of the attack on Pavlivka-Vuhledar in November 2022, which also involved Russian units sustaining high casualties for limited gains. It is highly likely that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, which is leading much of the assault on Vuhledar, has been reconstituted with poorly trained mobilised reservists, reflecting the chaotic tactics captured in video footage. It remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to sustain offensive operations on this axis given the high casualty rates. Nevertheless, geolocated footage published on 11 February indicates that Russian forces have brought forward thermobaric artillery to support operations against Vuhledar. This indicates that Russian commanders will possibly continue prioritising the assault on Vuhledar and commit additional reserves to achieve their goal.
- SOUTHERN: Russian forces continue to strengthen defences along the Zaporizhzhia front in likely anticipation of future Ukrainian counter-offensive operations designed to cut off the land bridge between mainland Russia and Crimea. DI assessed on 13 February that the Russian front in Zaporizhzhia amounts to 119 miles (192km) of the 800 miles (1,288km) of frontline that stretches across eastern and southern Ukraine. While the Russian priority at present remains defensive, there is a realistic possibility that Russian forces are preparing a supplementary offensive against the Zaporizhzhia axis in a bid to blunt Ukrainian opportunities for a counter-offensive, depriving them of a ‘victory’ on this vulnerable front. However, there are limited indications of a substantial troop build-up along this front, as Russian attacks over the last few days are unlikely to have made any serious gains.
- STRIKES: On the night of 10-11 February, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 24 UAVs and one Kh-101 cruise missile. Kyiv claims to have intercepted 20 of the UAVs, which targeted energy infrastructure in Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia. In addition, Russian forces appeared to deploy an unmanned naval drone for the first time during an attack against the Zatoka bridge at the mouth of the Dniester Estuary, located 28 miles (45km) south of Odesa. The extent of the damage remains unclear at present, though the timing of the attack was clearly meant to apply pressure on neighbouring Moldova. Russia has frequently used strikes in Ukraine to undermine Moldova’s pro-West government and energy security. The bridge has not been targeted recently, and the direct targeting of critical infrastructure less than 30 miles (48km) from Moldovan territory is highly likely part of Russia’s ongoing destabilisation campaign inside Moldova, as we assessed last week following the fall of the Moldovan government. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command similarly assessed that the attack was designed to instil panic in the areas neighbouring Moldova, and that such operations are likely to continue.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- RUSSIA: Notably, On 12 February, the US embassy in Moscow urged its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to a range of security risks. Notably, the embassy stated that Russia will possibly subject dual nationals to ‘mobilisation, prevent their departure from Russia, and/or conscript them’. The embassy did not state whether this risk was due to an impending second wave of mobilisation, or simply due to heightened risks facing dual US citizens. The embassy also noted that it has ‘severe limitations on its ability to assist US citizens leaving the country’ and that there is a risk that the Russian security services will detain US citizens without duly notifying the US embassy and ‘unreasonably delay US consular assistance’. The latest warning is a clear indication that conditions inside Russia have deteriorated for US citizens.
- ATTACKS: Earlier on 13 February, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) alleged that the US is recruiting Islamist militants affiliated with Islamic State (IS) to carry out terrorist attacks in Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The SVR alleged without evidence that the US plans to transfer small groups of militants who would co-operate with other Islamist terrorist groups with a strong presence in Russia and other CIS countries. The SVR also alleged that, as part of this plan, there would be particular emphasis on attacks against ‘well-guarded facilities, including foreign diplomatic missions’. Notably, the SVR provided no credible evidence to support the allegations. Moscow has previously alleged that the Ukrainian intelligence services have been actively liaising with Islamist groups to stage attacks in Russia. Last week we assessed that Russia would attempt to frame the US as a state sponsor of terrorism after a US journalist claimed that Washington DC was behind the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines. The SVR’s allegations are therefore in line with our assessment and previous patterns of Russian behaviour. Further allegations that Western states (including the UK) are sponsoring terrorism are highly likely.
- NUCELAR: It is likely that the Russian occupation authorities are deliberately draining the Kakhovka reservoir which feeds the cooling system at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). However, there is currently no imminent threat to the integrity of the plant’s systems. The NPR news outlet reported on 10 February that water levels in the reservoir have dropped sharply since the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, from 16.1m on 1 December 2022 to 14.1m on 6 February. The head of the Ukrainian military administration for Zaporizhzhia oblast stated that water levels are decreasing uncontrollably, and that the ZNPP’s water cooling system will be threatened if levels fall below 13.2m. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi concurred, but noted that at present the current water levels do not pose a threat to the ZNPP’s safety systems. While the likelihood of a meltdown at the plant remains very low, water levels in the Kakhovka reservoir will be a key indicator of any increasing threat. We will continue monitoring related developments. For further analysis on the limited threat of a nuclear incident at the ZNPP, see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 18 August 2022.
FORECAST
MOLDOVA: On 13 February, Moldovan President Maria Sandu revealed details about an alleged Kremlin plan to destabilise Moldova. The Ukrainian intelligence services reportedly provided Chisinau with these details last week (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 February 2023). The plan allegedly entails actors with military training, dressed as civilians, staging attacks against state institutions and taking hostages. Sandu also noted that Russia was attempting to topple the government under the guise of peaceful protests, and is providing materiel and support for Russian, Belarusian, Serbian and Montenegrin citizens to enter Moldova to conduct sabotage operations. While we cannot confirm the veracity of these intelligence assessments, its findings align with our own assessment regarding Russia’s destabilisation campaign over the last 12 months. The timing of this weekend’s strikes against the Zatoka bridge at the mouth of the Dniester Estuary, located 30 miles (48km) from Moldovan territory (see STRIKES above), is clearly part of this wider campaign to undermine Chisinau and instil fears of escalation.
The tactics Russia is allegedly attempting to utilise in Moldova resemble those used by Russia and pro-Russian actors in the Donbas during the outbreak of the conflict in 2014. However, it should be noted that the capabilities and mass support available to Russia remain more limited in Moldova than in Donbas prior to 2014, and that Moscow’s objectives vis-à-vis Moldova are likely different than those it held for Donbas.
Firstly, Russia lacks sufficient local support and capabilities in Chisinau-controlled Moldova to instigate an uprising that would overrun the security forces, as was the case in Donetsk and Luhansk. However, it still retains military capabilities in Transnistria. While Moscow could feasibly leverage these capabilities, this remains unlikely in the short term. Secondly, the Kremlin likely views the undermining and destabilisation of the pro-Western administration in Chisinau as an acceptable goal in the short to medium term, rather than necessarily preparing to actively topple the government and replace it with a pro-Russian regime through a popular revolution or coup.
Nevertheless, if Chisinau pushes ahead with its application to join NATO, Russian efforts to destabilise the country would likely accelerate. In the short term, destabilising sabotage operations, bomb scares, anti-government protests, ‘provocations’, false-flag attacks and cross-border incidents along the Transnistrian border all remain realistic possibilities in the coming weeks. For further analysis, see Sibylline Alert – 10 February 2023.
Moldova: New prime minister will assure pro-western trajectory, emphasising internal security. On 10 February, Moldova’s President Maia Sandu appointed a new prime minister, Dorin Recean, following the resignation of Natalia Gavrilita earlier that day. Gavrilita’s resignation follows months of increasing Russian and domestic pressure on the Moldovan government amid the war in Ukraine. In her resignation speech, Gavrilita mentioned the lack of support for her government and that the state would be entering a new phase, emphasising security. Recean is a well-known pro-EU figure who previously served as the national security adviser. His appointment signals a continuation of the pro-EU trajectory and a likely emphasis on internal security to reduce Russian political and economic destabilisation efforts within the country. Tensions between Russia and Moldova will likely remain very high, however, Russian direct military action against Moldova is highly unlikely due to the current Russian force capability.
Russia: US renewed ‘leave country’ advice reflects growing security threats to Westerners. On 13 February, the US Embassy in Moscow issued a warning for US citizens residing or travelling in Russia to leave the country immediately. The embassy highlighted a number of threats, including increased risk of arbitrary detention, harassment by Russian security agencies and individuals with dual nationality being drafted in future rounds of mobilisation. The embassy also warned that Moscow may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ US citizenship if an individual is mobilised or as a means of preventing their ability to leave the country. The US has repeatedly urged its citizens to leave Russia, with the previous warning issued in September 2022, after President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation. The warning reflects the enduringly high threat environment for US citizens and other Westerners in Russia, due to persistently high risks of arbitrary detention and politicised criminal prosecutions. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Feb 23. Ukraine war spurs European demand for U.S. arms, but not big-ticket items.
European demand for U.S. weaponry is soaring, but instead of big-ticket items like jets and tanks, shopping lists are focused on cheaper, less-sophisticated items such as shoulder-fired missiles, artillery, and drones that have proven critical to Ukraine’s war efforts.
Countries close to Russia like Poland, Finland and Germany are striking deals to build U.S. weapons in Europe, negotiating new deals to buy arms and looking to speed up existing contracts, according to interviews with military officials and industry executives, and a Reuters review of recent announcements by governments and defense manufacturers.
Demand is centered around basic weapons and munitions: 155-millimeter artillery rounds, air defenses, communications equipment, shoulder-fired Javelin missiles and drones, nearly a dozen European military attachés in Washington told Reuters in a series of recent interviews.
The focus on high-volume, less costly weapons underscores how the war in Ukraine has reshaped strategic thinking in European capitals about how future conflicts could be fought.
Visions of high-tech wars more reliant on computers and machines have been replaced by the reality of relentless artillery duels and soldiers dug into muddy trenches. The one-year-old war has seen both sides expend vast quantities of artillery shells and missiles.
Ukraine’s high usage rates of “both precision and unguided munitions have shown NATO countries that any future war would require much higher stocks than anticipated,” said Roman Schweizer, a defense policy analyst at investment bank Cowen & Co.
The attaches said their governments were particularly keen on buying Javelins after seeing the weapon’s effectiveness in Ukraine. The missiles have proven deadly against Russian tanks.
Five European countries, meanwhile, have expressed interest in buying Raytheon Technologies’ (RTX.N) precision-guided 155 millimeter artillery rounds, according to a company spokesperson, who declined to name them. The rounds are accurate to within 12 feet (4 meters) and have a range of 20 miles (32 km).
The interest from the five countries has not been previously reported. The company already sells to three other European nations.
Expressions of interest are the first step in a multi-step acquisition process that includes approval from the United States government and negotiations between the buyer and weapons contractor. It can be a year or more before a weapon is actually delivered.
Several of the military attachés, who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak to the media on behalf of their governments, said their countries have been making sure payments to defense contractors have been on schedule, hoping to forestall any delays. The weapons purchases are now a domestic policy priority in their countries, they said.
U.S. arms makers have in the past complained about late customer payments on calls with investors.
DRONES BIG AND SMALL
Small drones and bigger unmanned aircraft, which cost about $20 million each without sophisticated sensors, cameras and other “extras,” have also appeared on shopping lists.
Finland and Denmark began talks with General Atomics after Russia invaded Ukraine last February, a source familiar with the discussions told Reuters. They want to buy a small number of MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones that can be used for maritime and land surveillance.
A Finnish defense ministry spokesperson declined to comment. A Danish defense ministry spokesperson said they have begun the process to buy at least two “long range, long endurance Remotely Piloted Aircraft System(s)” to strengthen “military capacities in the Arctic,” without naming any companies.
Poland, which has been eager to get its hands on the same model drones, just received two of the previous generation model on lease from General Atomics until they get U.S. approval to buy the new ones, according to two sources familiar with the situation.
Defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak confirmed the delivery, although not the number, in a Feb. 12 tweet that said they will be used to surveil the country’s eastern border, which it shares with Ukraine and Russian ally Belarus.
Some European countries are also keen to begin producing U.S. weapons on their soil because it would reduce dependency on foreign imports and lower purchasing costs.
In Germany, arms maker Rheinmetall is ready to boost the output of tank and artillery munitions and may start producing High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) mobile rocket launchers, which have had great success targeting Russian positions, CEO Armin Papperger told Reuters. read more
The system is currently produced by Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) in Camden, Arkansas. It is not clear whether the system would be produced under license, a joint venture or some other arrangement.
A Lockheed Martin spokesperson declined to comment directly on the possibility of Rheinmetall beginning production of HIMARS. Lockheed Martin’s Eastern European business development manager for several missile programs, Rita Flaherty, said the company was “exploring co-production and technology transfer with several international partners.”
Latvia, too, is interested in co-producing U.S. munitions. “We recognize the benefits provided by local production of large caliber munitions,” military affairs spokesperson Roberts Skraucs said in a statement to Reuters.
Expectations remain high that European fears of Russian aggression will still generate orders for the biggest, multibillion dollar U.S. weapons like fighter jets and expensive missile defense systems with sophisticated radar.
For more expensive arms, the first orders are expected to be used to backfill equipment sent to Ukraine by Poland. Slovakia, for example, has said it is ready to send its MiG-29 jets to Ukraine. A likely replacement would be Lockheed Martin’s F-16, which cost about $65 million each.
Investors banking on soaring demand for U.S. weapons have boosted share prices of the biggest U.S. defense contractors – adding $35bn in market value – since the invasion of Ukraine began.
ARTILLERY STILL KEY
Demand is particularly high for 155 millimeter artillery shells. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the continued importance of artillery in helping to overwhelm enemy positions or thwart troop advances. The U.S. last year shipped more than 1 million 155 millimeter shells to Ukraine, a standard round that costs the U.S. Army about $800 each.
The U.S. production goal for 155 millimeter rounds has tripled from 30,000 shells a month to 90,000 a month over the next two years, according to an Army official. The huge increase reflects the need to restock U.S. supplies as well as those of allies including Norway, Canada, Finland, France, Germany and Italy, who sent some of their stocks to Ukraine.
“It has really hit home that this is an industrial-style war,” said Seth Jones with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, referring to a conflict that requires a high volume of weaponry in a short period of time.
Countries also realized early on in the Ukraine conflict the importance of having the Javelin anti-armor missile in their armories, which frequently appeared in news reports of Ukraine’s destruction of Russian armored columns.
In April, Lithuania said it had set aside 1bn euros for Javelins and other weapons. In May, Lockheed said it was doubling production and later in the month won, alongside its production partner Raytheon, a $309 million order for more than 1,300 Javelin missiles for Norway, Albania, Latvia as well as to restock U.S. supplies sent to Ukraine. In August, the United States approved a $300 million order for Britain.
Training for Javelins is relatively quick, compared to the learning required for more sophisticated platforms like tanks and planes, and the weapons themselves are relatively inexpensive. The medium-range missiles guide themselves after being launched, allowing the shooter to take cover. A single Javelin costs the U.S. Army about $263,000. (Source: Reuters)
16 Feb 23. Ukraine to receive multi-million pound capability boost from international fund. The boost to Ukraine’s defence capability includes drones, ammunition, air defence, and electronic warfare Ukraine will receive capabilities worth millions including tank spares, uncrewed air systems, electronic warfare, and air defence, from the first package of multi-million pound funding from the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU).
The first equipment package was agreed by the UK, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. These partners, along with Iceland and Lithuania, have contributed a collective total of more than £520 million to the fund.
With an expected value of more than £200m, the first package will include vital capabilities in the form of artillery ammunition, maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and spare parts for equipment, including Ukraine’s current tanks.
The first package of IFU support drew bids from both UK and international industry suppliers to meet Ukraine’s lethal and non-lethal equipment provision priorities, with more than 40 countries submitting more than 1,500 proposals across 11 capability areas. The funding agreement demonstrates the UK’s commitment to standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside Allies, we continue to provide training and equipment to the country, with the ability to surge that support should Ukraine come under threat. By making this commitment we will strengthen Ukraine’s position in negotiations, guard its long-term sovereignty and enable Ukraine to deter by denial.
The announcement came today during a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels, attended by Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This equipment package will provide a significant capability boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country.
The UK led International Fund for Ukraine demonstrates the commitment of the UK and our Allies to ensure Ukraine receives vital military aid necessary to defend against Russia’s illegal invasion.”
Following this morning’s NATO meeting, 18 European nations, including the UK, agreed to sign a joint letter of intent to explore and develop a framework for improved surveillance from space, through multinational cooperation and sharing of national space-based capabilities.
The agreement, which will launch the Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space Initiative (APSS), was signed by the UK, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey, and Sweden.
The letter of intent agrees that signatory nations will explore: the potential for sharing data from national surveillance satellites; processing, exploitation, and dissemination of data from within national capabilities; and funding to purchase data from commercial companies. APSS is expected to start operating in 2025.
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the importance of a persistent space surveillance capability, which also forms one of the North Atlantic Council’s agreed strategic outcomes of its Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Vision 2030+.
The announcements come just days after President Zelenksyy made a historic visit to the UK to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and see first-hand how the UK was supporting Ukraine through military training and lethal aid donations.
Bilaterally, the UK supported Ukraine with £2.3bn of military support in 2022 and the Government has committed to matching or exceeding this in 2023. Since the start of the year, the UK has already committed to providing Ukraine with a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, including training, ammunition, and spare parts; AS90 self-propelled guns to boost Ukraine’s long-range capability; and hundreds more air defence missiles. (Source: U.K. MoD)
16 Feb 23. Ukraine to receive first equipment package under UK-led IFU effort. The £200m package includes ammunition, air defence systems, drones, and electronic warfare and maritime ISR systems.
Understand the impact of the Ukraine conflict from a cross-sector perspective with the Global Data Executive Briefing: Ukraine Conflict
The UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands have agreed to provide additional defence equipment packages to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) on 15 February, the latest announcement comes after the recently held Nato defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Belgium.
The package is the military aid announced under the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) initiative launched last year.
Valued at over £200m, the package comprises of artillery ammunition, air defence systems, drones, electronic warfare systems, maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and additional equipment and spare parts.
Apart from this, Iceland and Lithuania have also made financial contributions of over £520m to the IFU.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This equipment package will provide a significant capability boost for Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country.”
The IFU fund supports the direct purchase of equipment from industry to ensure optimal use of the budget and faster deliveries to Ukraine.
The first package drew bids from various UK and international industry suppliers to fulfil the Ukrainian forces’ requirements.
The UK MoD further confirmed that the country has signed a joint letter of intent with 17 European nations to launch a new initiative, called Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS).
The effort, which is expected to commence in 2025, aims to explore and develop a framework for collaboratively enhancing multinational space-based surveillance capabilities.
Participating nations include the UK, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria, France, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Portugal.
It comes in the wake of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and is also a key strategic outcome of Nato’s Joint ISR Vision 2030+.
(Source: army-technology.com)
15 Feb 23. Ukraine needs to learn ‘Western way’ of fighting, says Ben Wallace. Defence Secretary calls on Kyiv to use weapons more sparingly as concerns grow about dwindling munitions stocks. Ukraine must be trained in the “Western way” of ammunition usage in order to conserve dwindling stocks, the Defence Secretary has said.
Ben Wallace warned that Kyiv’s troops could run out of ammunition unless they used them more sparingly or employed precision munitions.
He spoke at the Nato headquarters in Brussels as defence ministers from the 30-nation alliance met to discuss how best to help Ukraine repel Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion, which will shortly enter its second year.
Mr Wallace said: “The Russian, or the Soviet, way of fighting is very ammunition heavy [with] massive artillery barrages. That’s never how we have organised ourselves to fight in the West and in Nato.
“Ukraine uses huge amounts of ammunition to defend itself, partly that’s why we’re training them to fight in a Western way.
“If they can be very accurate in their use of artillery instead of having to use hundreds of shells to pin down a Russian unit, they can only use two or three because they can see exactly where the shot falls.”
He told Times Radio: “So if we can do both, we can make sure that they are much more effective on the ground. And at the same time, we can make sure that we address our own shortfalls at home.”
Ukraine’s armed forces are thought to be firing about 6,000 artillery rounds a day, faster than the West can resupply them, and around a third of the scale being used by Russia.
Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said that several Western nations were pressing to train Ukraine in tactics that would reduce its reliance on artillery shells.
Bastian Giegerich, the director of defence and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that European nations currently have the capacity to produce about 300,000 heavy artillery rounds of 155mm calibre a year.
“Most industry sources think they could ramp up relatively quickly [this year] by about 50 per cent,” he told The Telegraph.
However, he cautioned “anything beyond that will take longer”, meaning Ukraine needs supplies of ammunition from outside Europe and to transition onto more accurate munitions such as the Excalibur GPS-guided artillery round, in order to repel Moscow’s troops.
Ukraine’s state arms producer said that it had launched joint production of artillery shells with a central European Nato member, but refused to identify the country, adding that it plans to develop and produce other arms and military hardware with allies.
Ukroboronprom said it began producing 120mm mortar rounds, ammunition that is in high demand for the war effort.
Natalia Sad, the company’s spokesman, said: “The emergence of this shell is the first product of our joint co-operation with a country from the [NATO] alliance. It will not end with shells. We will soon show you other products produced with partner countries.”
Ms Sad added that companies were working around the clock to produce ammunition and keep supplies flowing, and that Ukroboronprom increased production on different types of military equipment by five to eight times last year compared with 2021.
Meanwhile, Mr Wallace said that vital military supplies would soon be sent from the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), a pool of funding to finance lethal and non-lethal equipment and training, direct from industry.
The first package from the IFU, valued at roughly £200 million with funds drawn from the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark, will include artillery ammunition, tank spares, drones and electronic warfare and air defence systems.
The Defence Secretary said that the equipment package “will provide a significant capability boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country”.
He added: “The UK-led International Fund for Ukraine demonstrates the commitment of the UK and our Allies to ensure Ukraine receives vital military aid necessary to defend against Russia’s illegal invasion.”
On Tuesday, Germany said it would reopen production lines for 35mm ammunition used by its Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, 32 of which have been sent by Berlin, out of a promised 37.
Although an old system designed for the Cold War, the German Gepards have shown they are excellent at shooting down the low and slow-flying Iranian-made Shahed 136 drones, used by Russia to attack Ukraine’s power plants and other national infrastructure.
For months, Germany has lobbied Switzerland to approve exports to Ukraine of stockpiles of Gepard ammunition, which was manufactured there by a subsidiary of Rheinmetall, the German defence company.
Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defence minister, said that with the new contracts “we will now start our own production of Gepard ammunition at Rheinmetall without delay”.
“The negotiations with Switzerland took time,” he said. “In the end, we were of the opinion that it is better to go our own way faster so as not to be dependent on them.”
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “We continue to place orders to replace ammunition given to Ukraine and have an extra £560 million from the Treasury to increase stockpiles.”
Also on Wednesday, Russia claimed it had broken through two fortified Ukrainian defence lines on the eastern front near Luhansk, although no details were given and the claims could not be independently verified.
(Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
15 Feb 23. Russian Invasion Changed Security Calculations Worldwide, Austin Says. The outcome of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war in Ukraine is profoundly important to Ukraine, Europe and all nations of the world, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said at the end of the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels today.
Austin also chaired a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which brought more than 50 nations to the table to support Ukraine. He discussed the situation confronting the contact group and NATO during a news conference.
Russia is pouring men and materiel into Ukraine, he said. “Those people are ill-trained and ill-equipped, and because of that, we see them incurring a lot of casualties,” Austin said. “That’s their strength: They have a lot of people. Our goal is to make sure that we give Ukraine additional capability so that they can be, not only be marginally successful, they can be decisive on the battlefield and their upcoming offensive.”
Austin said Putin didn’t just assault a peaceful and sovereign and democratic U.N. member state, he’s also threatening the hard-won system of rules and rights that has made Europe stronger and safer for more than seven decades.
He said that given Russia’s advantages in manpower and equipment, Putin expected a cakewalk when his forces invaded Feb. 24, 2022. “Putin expected Ukraine to surrender, and he expected the world to submit,” Austin said. “History will record something very different. History will remember the courage of the Ukrainian people. And history will remember the determination and strength of the NATO alliance.”
A year later, the NATO nations still stand strong in condemning the Russian invasion, and Austin said NATO is more unified and resolute than ever. “We are determined to stand with Ukraine’s brave defenders for as long as it takes,” he said. “And we are also determined to protect every inch of NATO territory.”
If Russia succeeds in destroying Ukraine — Putin’s stated goal — it will be a lesson to all nations that strong nations can invade with impunity. “You could see the scope of the global response again yesterday, when some 50 nations of goodwill gathered for the ninth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group,”he said. “And these challenges were an important part of this NATO ministerial. We talked today about how to ensure that NATO remains prepared to confront the dangers ahead.”
We will never waver in carrying out NATO’s preeminent task. And that task is to defend this great alliance, its people and their territory.”
The NATO meeting examined ways the alliance is putting in place the will expressed in last year’s Madrid Summit to shift NATO’s collective defense and deterrence. “We are strengthening our capabilities for the long term to deter and defend against all threats across all domains,” Austin said. “We’re upgrading our defense plans and putting more forces at higher levels of readiness.”
The ministers looked at the progress made to date and laid the foundation for the next NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. That summit will look to a new defense investment pledge to ensure that the alliance has the resources to carry out these new plans, the secretary said.
Austin said the ministers looked at problems with the NATO nations’ defense industrial base. “We also discussed our progress in building up ammunition stockpiles and boosting defense industrial capacity,”Austin said. “But we still have much more to do. Even as we rush to support Ukraine in the critical months ahead, we must all replenish our stockpiles to strengthen our deterrence and defense for the long term.”
The alliance will not be drawn into Putin’s war, Austin said. The nations will continue to support Ukraine as it defends itself, and the NATO nations will ensure they retain the ability to defend every inch of NATO territory.
“We will never waver in carrying out NATO’s preeminent task,” Austin said. “And that task is to defend this great alliance, its people and their territory. America’s commitment to that core mission is unflinching. America’s commitment to Article Five is ironclad. And we’re proud to work alongside our NATO allies to defend the forces of freedom and to build a safer world.” (Source: US DoD)
15 Feb 23. Putin has limited options to sustain his war on Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE. Ian Stubbs says Russia is suffering its highest casualty rate since the invasion began, but Putin could stop his needless sacrifice of thousands more Russians.
Thank you, Mr Chair. A year ago, we reported to this Forum that Russia’s military build-up had amassed approximately 130,000 troops positioned along Ukraine’s borders and in illegally annexed Crimea.
Russia had deployed: the Iskander-K offensive ballistic missile systems in range of key Ukrainian cities and infrastructure; extensive air defence assets including the S-400 and Pantsir missile systems; and large numbers of air assets including the Su-25, Su-35S, Ka-52 and Mi-8 on a scale not normally seen as part of exercises.
Russia had also imposed unprecedented access restrictions over large areas of the Black Sea and was further bolstering its Black Sea Fleet with reinforcements from other Fleets; including increasing the number of landing ships by more than double.
In the face of this massive military build-up and Russia’s escalating rhetoric, Ukraine had demonstrated remarkable restraint. We had seen commendable attempts by Ukraine, and others, to reduce the risk of miscalculation and de-escalate tensions through two initiations of the Vienna Document Risk Reduction mechanism. But Russia refused to engage, insisting that it saw “no grounds for applying the procedures of the Vienna Document Paragraph 16”. Russia’s argument that the risk reduction mechanism did not apply whilst at the same time presiding over the biggest military build-up in Europe since the Cold War, was a clear indication that Putin had already taken the decision that Russia would invade its sovereign neighbour.
Mr Chair, we also know that the lies, deception and disruptive activity from our Russian colleagues aimed to deliberately undermine efforts by participating States to find a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The Russian delegation’s duplicitous behaviour endures nearly a year later.
Last week, in an interview with Russian State media, our Russian colleague lamented that other delegations were “scrutinising” Russia’s “previous statements, looking for contradictions” – we do not have to look far. In this Forum exactly a year ago, he stated that Ukraine was “stubbornly continuing to impose…an unsubstantiated idea about some kind of Russian aggression”. Russia then invaded Ukraine. Last week, he said that Russia had “made every effort to ensure military-political stability in Europe”, but Russia refused to engage in the very mechanisms designed by this organisation to reduce risk, de-escalate tension and restore stability. When our Russian colleague persists in using this Forum to peddle the Kremlin’s disinformation and propaganda, the contradictions are clear for all to see.
Mr Chair, over the past two weeks, Russia has reportedly suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian military leaders have now likely deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under the so-called “partial mobilisation” and Wagner announced on 09 February that it had halted its prisoner recruitment scheme. The options for Putin and his military leaders to sustain their war of choice appear to be limited: continue to deplete their forces; scale back their objectives; or conduct a further form of mobilisation. But there is another option: Putin could end this war now, withdraw all Russian forces from Ukrainian sovereign territory, and in doing so, stop his needless sacrifice of thousands more ordinary Russian people.
Mr Chair, in the face of Russia’s barbaric invasion and brutal actions, we must all recognise that giving Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and push Russia out of its sovereign territory is the swiftest and only path to a just and lasting peace. In the UK-Ukraine Joint Declaration we signed with Ukraine on 8 February, we reaffirmed our countries’ commitment to stand side by side in the face of Russia’s aggression.
The UK is working with Ukraine to help develop their longer-term force structures and capabilities, to reverse Russian gains and build towards a deterrence force of the future. We will support our Ukrainian friends as they fight to liberate their homeland. Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence will be fully restored. Thank you.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
15 Feb 23. Ukraine to receive multi-million pound capability boost from international fund. The boost to Ukraine’s defence capability includes drones, ammunition, air defence, and electronic warfare
Ukraine will receive capabilities worth millions including tank spares, uncrewed air systems, electronic warfare, and air defence, from the first package of multi-million pound funding from the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU).
The first equipment package was agreed by the UK, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. These partners, along with Iceland and Lithuania, have contributed a collective total of more than £520 million to the fund.
With an expected value of more than £200m, the first package will include vital capabilities in the form of artillery ammunition, maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and spare parts for equipment, including Ukraine’s current tanks.
The first package of IFU support drew bids from both UK and international industry suppliers to meet Ukraine’s lethal and non-lethal equipment provision priorities, with more than 40 countries submitting more than 1,500 proposals across 11 capability areas. The funding agreement demonstrates the UK’s commitment to standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside Allies, we continue to provide training and equipment to the country, with the ability to surge that support should Ukraine come under threat. By making this commitment we will strengthen Ukraine’s position in negotiations, guard its long-term sovereignty and enable Ukraine to deter by denial.
The announcement came today during a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels, attended by Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “This equipment package will provide a significant capability boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will support their ability to defend their country.
The UK led International Fund for Ukraine demonstrates the commitment of the UK and our Allies to ensure Ukraine receives vital military aid necessary to defend against Russia’s illegal invasion.”
Following this morning’s NATO meeting, 18 European nations, including the UK, agreed to sign a joint letter of intent to explore and develop a framework for improved surveillance from space, through multinational cooperation and sharing of national space-based capabilities.
The agreement, which will launch the Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space Initiative (APSS), was signed by the UK, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey, and Sweden.
The letter of intent agrees that signatory nations will explore: the potential for sharing data from national surveillance satellites; processing, exploitation, and dissemination of data from within national capabilities; and funding to purchase data from commercial companies. APSS is expected to start operating in 2025.
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the importance of a persistent space surveillance capability, which also forms one of the North Atlantic Council’s agreed strategic outcomes of its Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Vision 2030+.
The announcements come just days after President Zelenksyy made a historic visit to the UK to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and see first-hand how the UK was supporting Ukraine through military training and lethal aid donations.
Bilaterally, the UK supported Ukraine with £2.3bn of military support in 2022 and the Government has committed to matching or exceeding this in 2023. Since the start of the year, the UK has already committed to providing Ukraine with a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, including training, ammunition, and spare parts; AS90 self-propelled guns to boost Ukraine’s long-range capability; and hundreds more air defence missiles. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
15 Feb 23. Norway to donate MBTs and special purpose tanks to Ukraine.
The government has also allocated separate funds to provide associated ammunition and spare parts. Understand the impact of the Ukraine conflict from a cross-sector perspective with the Global Data Executive Briefing: Ukraine Conflict
Norway has confirmed it will donate eight Leopard 2 main battle tanks (MBT) and four special purpose tanks to support Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.
The Norwegian Government has already addressed Parliament regarding this additional assistance package, valued at approximately $7.35bn (Nkr75bn), for Ukraine. Deliveries under this tranche will be fulfilled over the next five years.
Norway is still considering what type of special purpose tanks in the ‘armoured engineering and bridge layer category’ will be delivered to Ukraine under this package.
According to the government, the decision will be based on the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ requirements.
In addition, separate funds have been allocated by the government to provide associated ammunition and spare parts.
Norwegian Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said: “In addition, Norway will also offer $24.53m (Nkr250m) to the EU Ukraine-fund, European Peace Facility. The funds will be earmarked for ammunition and spare parts for the Leopard II.”
Additionally, the Norwegian Government will contribute to train and educate the Ukrainian tanks-crew in Poland, in close coordination with other allied and partner countries.
The new comprehensive package builds on the Norwegian Government’s recent announcement to donate more tanks in response to Ukraine’s request for support.
In the previous announcement, the government confirmed that the new aid package, including tanks, will be provided to Ukraine as a ‘larger multi-year package’.
Gram added: “The decision to donate Leopard 2 tanks and special purpose tanks has been made after close dialogue with both the chief of defence and other European countries.”
The assessment from the defence chief revealed that, after donating additional tanks to Ukraine, Norway will still be able to maintain ‘satisfactory national readiness’, allowing the country’s armed forces to fulfil Nato’s commitments. (Source: army-technology.com)
14 Feb 23. 11 countries to give tanks to Ukraine, as Kyiv is ‘contemplating’ spring offensive: US.
“Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks with fires that achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver,” Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said.
Eleven countries have signed on to send tanks to Ukraine as military equipment donations ramp up in anticipation of a potential spring offensive, according to US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
Speaking in Brussels today after 54 defense ministry delegations met at the latest sitting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Milley also noted that 22 countries have pledged infantry fighting vehicles, while 16 nations have committed to send Kyiv “artillery and munitions.” A total of nine countries are supporting the supply of air defense systems.
“Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks with fires that achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver,” said Milley.
He did not list the 11 tank suppliers specifically, but did refer to the growing number of countries partnering on the international Leopard main battle tank coalition involving Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal and Spain.
Milley did confirm, however, that the US, Czech Republic and the Netherlands are currently “in the process” of delivering refurbished Soviet-era T-72 tanks. The US has pledged a contingent of Abrams main battle tanks as well.
Ukraine has been consistently requesting that supply partners provide tanks, fighter jets and air defense systems to counter a new Russian offensive expected in the spring, but US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pushed back on any notion that a large scale air campaign will be launched imminently by the Russian Air Force.
“In terms of whether or not Russia is massing its aircraft for some massive aerial attack, we don’t currently see that,” he said. “We do know that Russia has a substantial number of aircraft in its inventory and a lot of capability left. That’s why we’ve emphasized that we need to do everything that we can to get Ukraine as much air defense capability as we possibly can.”
Existing air defense supplies include US Patriot platforms and Italy and France offering SAMP/T systems, but those are “not enough,” according to Austin, adding that the US and Contact Group partners will “keep pushing until we get more” in order to best face down Russian threats. The SAMP/T long-range surface-to-air missile defense system has been developed for France and Italy by Eurosam, a joint venture between European weapons maker MBDA and French manufacturer Thales, to counter ballistic missiles, high-speed tactical missiles, UAVs and “highly maneuvering aircraft, in a saturation attack scenario,” according to Thales company literature.
“Our effort currently is to get these [air defense] capabilities into country as quickly as we can, and then integrate those capabilities,” he explained.
He said Ukraine had done an “incredible job” intercepting “recent” rocket and missile fires.
Concurring with US President Joseph Biden’s position on declining to provide American fighter jets to Ukraine, Austin said that he had “no announcements” to make on the matter.
“We’re going to continue to work with Ukraine to address Ukraine’s most pressing needs. They’re contemplating an offensive in in the spring… so we have a lot to get done,” he added.
Discussions around fighter jets continue to be highly sensitive politically, as Washington refuses to entertain F-16 aircraft reaching Kyiv. At the other end of the spectrum, France has previously said there is “no taboo” around the fighter jet issue, though it has still to action a decision. Recently the UK said it would provide training for Ukrainian fighter pilots on Western platforms, but that effort was designed with Ukraine’s post-war military in mind. A lack of progress across the NATO alliance on the matter generally aligns with fears of escalation.
“The issue of aircraft [fighter jets] is not the most urgent issue now,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a press conference today ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting. “But it is an ongoing discussion. And as I’ve said before, we have ongoing consultations among allies on the type of systems allies should deliver to Ukraine. That will continue to evolve.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Breaking Defense.com)
14 Feb 23. Stoltenberg Explains Why Support to Ukraine Still Matters
A year on, support to Ukraine from nations around the world matters more than ever, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels today. Stoltenberg spoke before the alliance Defense Ministerial which, he said, is happening “at a critical time for our security.”
February 24 marks one year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to invade neighboring Ukraine. The Russian leader believed he would have a cakewalk and take the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, but his forces were stopped and driven off. The same occurred in Kharkiv and in Kherson.
Still, “we see no signs that President Putin is preparing for peace,” he said. “What we see is the opposite, he is preparing for more war, for new offensives and new attacks. So, it makes it even more important that NATO allies and partners provide more support to Ukraine.”
The NATO allies will protect every inch of NATO territory, but supporting Ukraine in its fight against naked aggression is crucial as well.
The Russian attack on Ukraine is an affront to sovereignty not only in Europe, but around the world. “This is a war of aggression,” Stoltenberg said. “President Putin — Russia — has attacked a sovereign independent democratic free nation in Europe — Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine has the right to defend itself — the right of self-defense is enshrined in the Charter.”
NATO and NATO nations “have the right to help Ukraine uphold the right for self-defense.”
He noted that the support Ukraine has received has changed as the war evolved. At first, the need was for anti-armor and anti-air weapons. Then, the need shifted to artillery, then air defense. “And now, over the last weeks and months, allies have agreed to further step up significantly when it comes to heavy weaponry: armor, infantry fighting vehicles, but also main battle tanks,” he said.
The type of support has evolved and will continue to evolve, he said. “We need to ensure that Ukraine gets the weapons it needs to be able to retake territory, liberate the lands and win this war and prevail as a sovereign, independent nation,” he said. (Source: US DoD)
14 Feb 23. Austin: Contact Group Continues Stand With Ukrainian People.
After almost a year, the free world still stands with Ukraine as it defends its liberty and sovereignty, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said at the conclusion of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels today.
Austin and Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, praised the coalition that has grown since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Next week will mark a year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. “Our hearts are with the families of all the Ukrainian soldiers killed and wounded, fighting to defend their country, their sovereignty and their fellow citizens,” Austin said.
The secretary said the U.S. also mourns the innocent civilians killed as Russia targets Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. “Russia has inflicted a year of tragedy and terror on Ukraine,” he said. “But the people of Ukraine have inspired the world.”
These nations rallied as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. “Nations of goodwill have rallied together to reject Putin’s vision of a world of chaos where tyrants can trample borders and conquer their peaceful neighbors and break the rules of war,” Austin said. “That’s what this contact group represents. Together, we have made clear that we will support Ukraine’s self-defense for the long haul. And we will move out with the urgency that the moment demands.”
The United States has led this effort, and Austin chairs the contact group, which has grown to 54 nations. President Joe Biden announced another round of assistance to Ukraine earlier this month. This includes more ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, rocket launchers; heavy machine guns to knock down Russian and Iranian drones; and mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles.
Contact group members are supplying Ukraine with main combat tanks, including Challenger tanks from the United Kingdom, reconditioned T-72 tanks from a number of countries, Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and several other countries, and M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States.
The United States also pledged $1.75 billion for critical air defense capabilities.
“At today’s contact group, we joined again with our valued allies and partners to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs, when it needs it,” Austin said. “We continue to work together to provide Ukraine with full combat-credible capabilities and not just equipment. And that’s why we discussed synchronizing our donations into an integrated training plan.”
All told, member states of the contact group have given Ukraine’s defenders more than eight combat brigades, he said.
The military capabilities are important, but knowing how they work and how they work together is more important, and the contact group is an integral part of this effort. “This isn’t about one single capability,” Austin said. “It’s about delivering all the capabilities that we promise. It’s about integrating all these systems together. It’s about working with Ukrainians to help them fight for their freedom.”
Spotlight: NATO
Milley stressed the contact group must stay together. “Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance and act with impunity,” he said. “He was wrong. “Ukraine remains free. They remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger, and Russia is now a global pariah.
“The world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience,” he continued. “In short, Russia has lost. They’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield. But until Putin ends his war of choice, the international community will continue to support Ukraine with the equipment and capabilities it needs to defend itself.”
The contact group is critical to the effort. Of the countries that gathered for the meeting, “11 countries have pledged tanks for Ukraine, 22 have pledged infantry fighting vehicles, 16 pledged artillery and munitions, and nine more pledged air defense artillery,” Milley said. “The group is focused on delivering the capabilities committed and efficiently providing the training, the spare parts, the sustainment and logistics necessary for the full employment of these systems.”
Milley said the war is extremely dynamic. Even as Ukraine is fighting for its survival, the nation is training and evolving for future operations. “Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, and tanks with fires to achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver,” the chairman said. “While Russia has waged this war for far too long, they will not outlast the Ukrainian people, nor the group of allies and partners that met today.” (Source: US DoD)
15 Feb 23. Russian PM Forms Commission for Development of UAS. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree on the formation of a government commission on the development of unmanned aerial systems. The corresponding document is published on the Internet portal of legal information.
“The government of the Russian Federation decides: to form a government commission on the development of unmanned aerial systems,” the document says.
It follows from the document that the key task of the government commission is to prepare agreed proposals for the implementation of state policy in the field of development of unmanned aerial systems and solving problems related, among other things, to the development of the use of these systems in conjunction with the transport system and other sectors of the economy, ensuring integration unmanned aerial systems into the airspace, with the development of the infrastructure that is necessary for the operation of such systems, etc.
On December 31, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a list of instructions for the development of unmanned aerial systems in the country. The corresponding document was published on the Kremlin website. In accordance with it, the government was instructed to form a commission on the development of unmanned aerial systems by February 15. The commission was entrusted to be headed by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.
By June, the Cabinet of Ministers needs to approve a strategy for the development of unmanned aircraft in Russia for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2035, which should identify priority areas for the development of unmanned aircraft, the parameters of this market, annual targets for the development of unmanned aircraft, as well as a list measures being implemented, the volume and sources of their financing. (Source: UAS VISION/News in France)
15 Feb 23. Ukraine Unveils New Kamikaze Drone. Video footage has surfaced online showing the first successful launch of a new type of Ukrainian suicide drone. The drone was reportedly developed by the National Aviation University in Kiev. In the footage, the drone, which is powered by a back propeller, can be seen taken off from an improvised launcher mounted in the back of a mini truck with help from a rocket booster.
Military experts noted that the suicide drone is similar in design to the RZ60 aerial target, which was first unveiled by the Ukrainian firm Ramsay in 2021.
The RZ60 has an operational range of 300 kilometers and can carry a payload weighing up to three kilograms. The new Ukrainian suicide drone will likely have similar specifications, if it was indeed built around the aerial target.
Kiev forces have been using suicide drones since the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine last year. While some of the suicide drones employed by Kiev were built from commercially-avilable drone kits and off-the-shelf electronics, others were built around Soviet-made Tu-141 and Tu-143 jet-powered reconnaissance drones.
In addition to these suicide drones, Kiev forces received hundreds of small loitering munitions from its Western allies, including Polish-made Warmate as well as American-made Switchblade 300/600 and Phoenix Ghost.
Ukrainian suicide drones pose a real threat to Russian military and civilian targets. The threat covers the special military operation zone as well as nearby Russian territory.
Kiev’s drone program is thought to be supported by its Western allies, who are apparently determined to improve Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities. In the face of this threat, Russia will likely reinforce its early warning and air defense network within and beyond the special military operation zone. (Source: UAS VISION/Southfront)
15 Feb 23. Zelenskiy calls for faster military aid as Russia pounds Ukraine’s east.
Summary
- Russia says Ukrainian forces retreated in Luhansk
- Eastern city of Bakhmut prepares for Russian assault
- Ukraine seen launching own offensive in spring -Austin
- NATO working to give Kyiv means to make it work, he says
Ukraine urged allies to speed up the pace of military aid as NATO defence ministers prepared to meet for a second day on Wednesday, while Russia said its troops had broken through two fortified lines of Ukrainian defences on the eastern front.
The Russian Defence Ministry said the Ukrainians had retreated in the face of Russian attacks in the Luhansk region, although it provided no details and Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield report.
“During the offensive … the Ukrainian troops randomly retreated to a distance of up to 3 km (1.9 miles) from the previously occupied lines,” the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.
“Even the more fortified second line of defence of the enemy could not hold the breakthrough of the Russian military.”
The Kremlin has intensified attacks across a swathe of southern and eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, and a major new offensive has been widely anticipated.
Russia’s main effort has been focused on the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk province adjacent to Luhansk.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not mention any significant setbacks in Luhansk in its morning update on Wednesday.
It said Ukrainian units had repelled attacks in the areas of more than 20 settlements, including Bakhmut as well as Vuhledar – a town 150 km (90 miles) southwest of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday said Russia was in a hurry to achieve as much as it can with its latest push before Ukraine and its allies gather strength.
“That is why speed is of the essence,” he said as NATO defence chiefs met in Brussels for two days of talks that continue on Wednesday. “Speed in everything – adopting decisions, carrying out decisions, shipping supplies, training. Speed saves people’s lives.”
Bakhmut’s capture would provide a stepping stone for Russia to advance on two bigger cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk, giving it momentum after months of setbacks ahead of the first anniversary of the invasion on Feb. 24.
“The situation on the front line, especially in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, remains very difficult. The battles are literally for every foot of Ukrainian land,” Zelenskiy said in his evening address on Tuesday.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said there was fighting “around every single house” in Bakhmut.
“The situation remains extremely difficult, but under control of our forces and the front line has not moved,” he said in a YouTube video.
WESTERN SUPPORT
Ukraine is using shells faster than the West can make them and says it needs fighter jets and long-range missiles to counter the Russian offensive and recapture lost territory.
The United States and NATO have pledged that Western support will not falter in the face of a looming Russian offensive.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he expected Ukraine to launch its own offensive in the spring.
“Ukraine has urgent requirements to help it meet this crucial moment in the course of the war. We believe there’ll be a window of opportunity for them to exercise initiative,” he said.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said supplying Ukraine with fighter jets would certainly be discussed but that it was not a focus at the moment.
Russia, which calls the invasion a “special military operation” to eliminate security threats, said NATO demonstrated its hostility towards Russia every day and was becoming more involved in the conflict. Kyiv and its allies call Russia’s actions an unprovoked land grab.
Russia holds swathes of Ukraine’s southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including its nuclear plant, nearly all of Luhansk and over half of Donetsk.
Last year, Russia declared it had annexed the four regions in a move condemned by most countries of the United Nations as illegal.
The upper chamber of Russia’s parliament will hold an extraordinary meeting on Feb. 22 that will focus on adoption of laws on the integration of four regions into the Russian Federation, RIA Novosti reported citing a senior lawmaker.
A U.S.-backed report published on Tuesday said Russia had held at least 6,000 Ukrainian children – likely many more – in camps in Crimea and Russia whose primary purpose appeared to be political re-education.
Russia’s embassy in Washington said Russia accepted children who were forced to flee with their families from the shelling in Ukraine.
(Source: Reuters)
14 Feb 23. Western intelligence shows Russia is amassing aircraft at the border with Ukraine, an indication that Moscow could throw its jets and helicopters into the war to support a stuttering land offensive. The fear of a looming air war in Ukraine has prompted allies to prioritise rapid shipments of air defence assets and artillery ammunition to Kyiv, western officials said, to respond to the shift in approach by Moscow as the almost year-long war enters a new phase. Intelligence shared among Nato allies shows that Russia is amassing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft on the border with Ukraine, according to two officials briefed on its contents. In meetings with allied countries supporting Ukraine on Tuesday, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin highlighted the threat of Russia’s significant remaining air force. “He was very clear that we have a short window of time to help the Ukrainians to prepare for an offensive and that they had some pretty specific needs,” a senior US administration official said. “The Russian land forces are pretty depleted so it’s the best indication that they will turn this into an air fight. If the Ukrainians are going to survive . . . they need to have as many air defence capabilities and as much ammunition . . . as possible,” the official added. In a news conference later on Tuesday, Austin said the US did not see imminent signs of a “massive aerial attack” from Russia on Ukraine, but that Washington and its allies are rushing as much air defence capability to the country as they possibly can. “We do know Russia has substantial aircraft . . . and a lot of capability left,” Austin said. Ukraine’s current air defences were “not enough and we’re going to keep pushing until we get more because that threat is out there”, he said. “We want to make sure they have the ability to protect themselves in the event Russia decides to introduce its air force into the fight.” Since the first weeks of the war, following President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24 last year, Russia has used its sizeable air forces sparingly, relying instead on long-range missiles, artillery and land-based troops. Western analysts had speculated that this could have been due to a fear in Moscow that Ukraine’s air defence systems posed a threat to Russian aircraft, or because its fleet was in poor condition. But intelligence assessments indicate that Russia’s air force is “actually quite preserved”, a senior Nato diplomat said. “More than 80 per cent probably is safe and available . . . So we are expecting that they’re preparing to launch an air campaign and they’ve been trying to [disable] Ukrainian air defences with attacks,” the diplomat said. The warning comes as some 50 western allies used a meeting at Nato’s headquarters on Tuesday to lay out additional pledges of military equipment for Ukraine. The US is expected to announce another assistance package later this week, which will mostly include air defence and ammunition, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukrainian and Nato officials have in recent days warned of ammunition shortages, with western capitals growing concerned at the effect of strained defence supply chains and dwindling domestic stockpiles. These immediate needs trumped longer-term requests for materiel such as fighter jets or quicker shipments of western battle tanks, officials said, given Russia’s new offensive, which Nato said on Monday had already begun. “What Ukraine tells us that they really need is ammunition and additional air defence capabilities,” a western official said. Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday that the arms producer Rheinmetall would restart production of ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns as part of the new push to support Kyiv. The Gepard, which the German military decommissioned in 2010, has proved to be an effective weapon for the Ukrainian military to shoot down drones and low-flying missiles. But ammunition has been running low, and a recent effort by Berlin to persuade Switzerland and Brazil to replenish it from their own stocks ended in failure. (Source: FT.com)
14 Feb 23. Germany chides allies for delays in delivering tanks to Ukraine. Germany’s defence minister has voiced his frustration with European partners who spent months pressuring Berlin to supply tanks to Ukraine but have so far failed to deliver any of the heavy armour themselves. Boris Pistorius said progress made by other countries in sending German-made Leopard tanks had “not been exactly breathtaking, to put it mildly”. Asked if he could understand countries that pushed Germany to send such advanced weapons systems to Ukraine and were now not delivering their own, he said: “As I’m in a diplomatic arena right now, I would just say — not much.” For months, German chancellor Olaf Scholz was reluctant to provide Ukraine with main battle tanks in case that increased the risk of a direct confrontation between Nato and Russia. But he performed a big U-turn late last month, agreeing to send 14 Leopard 2A6s after the US committed to providing 31 M1 Abrams tanks. Scholz has insisted that weapons deliveries should be co-ordinated with allies and that Germany would not “go it alone”. Berlin also announced last month that it would let allies re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and said it wanted to team up with its allies to create two tank battalions of Leopard 2s, equating to about 90 tanks. In addition, the government has approved the export to Ukraine of 178 older Leopard 1 tanks that had been decommissioned in Germany two decades ago and were sold back to private companies. Officials in Berlin had hoped that the flurry of announcements would prompt Germany’s allies to follow through on their promises to send their own contingents of Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Thirteen European armies operate about 2,000 of the tanks, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But so far, apart from Germany, only Poland has approved substantial deliveries. Late last month, Canada announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks and Norway said on Tuesday it was also providing eight. The relatively small commitments have triggered fears that Ukraine might not receive enough heavy armour from the west to deter an imminent Russian offensive. Pistorius said Portugal had agreed to send three Leopard 2A6s — a commitment he described as an “appropriate contribution” for a relatively small country. But there were currently “no talks under way” on sending more A6s, he added. He also said Poland would supply Leopard 2A4s but expressed doubt about their “condition and whether they are operational”. Poland, however, has been more upbeat about the Leopard coalition for Ukraine, saying it was gradually coming together. Defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak said he had agreed with Pistorius that Poland would form a group of nations providing Leopard 2A4s while Germany would concentrate on the Leopard 2A6.
He added that Poland was also in “advanced talks” with Spain. Nato officials told the Financial Times that Berlin was waiting for a coalition of Leopard 2 donors to be formed before sending its own contingent, adding that the plan was to send the two battalions in one delivery. Germany has already begun training Ukrainian tank crews on the vehicles, raising the possibility that deliveries could be delayed if other countries continued to drag their feet. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, said on Monday that “speed and urgency” were critical for Ukraine’s needs. “My top priority is to ensure that the pledges allies have made for infantry fighting vehicles, for armour, for battle tanks, that they are delivered as soon as possible because every day counts,” he added. (Source: FT.com)
14 Feb 23. National moment of silence to mark one year of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Government announces a national one-minute silence on Friday 24 February, marking a year since Russia’s barbaric full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- National moment will pay tribute to the bravery of Ukrainians and highlight the UK’s solidarity with the country, as they continue their courageous fight
- Comes after the historic visit of President Zelenskyy to the UK last week
A national minute’s silence will take place at 11am on Friday 24 February to mark the one-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to lead the nation in silence from Downing Street.
This national moment of reflection will offer the UK public the chance to pay tribute to the courage of the Ukrainian people and demonstrate the UK’s unwavering solidarity with the country.
The government is encouraging individuals and organisations across the UK to participate.
Since the war began, thousands of Ukrainians have been killed defending their freedom from Russia’s appalling onslaught. Millions more have been forced from their homes, with 114,400 Ukrainians finding refuge in the UK under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “As we approach the anniversary of Russia’s barbaric and deplorable invasion of Ukraine, as a nation we pay tribute to the incredible bravery and resilience of the Ukrainian people. Russia’s unjustifiable attack brought war and destruction to our continent once again, and it has forced millions from their homes and devastated families across Ukraine and Russia. I am incredibly proud of the UK’s response, and throughout this past year, the UK public have shown their true generosity of spirit and their enduring belief in freedom.”
Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer said: “One year on from Putin’s illegal invasion, we stand in solidarity with our friends in Ukraine and remember all those who have lost their lives in the pursuit of freedom.
This moment of silence is a time to reflect on the human cost of this conflict and show we stand with Ukraine.”
The national minute’s silence comes following the historic visit of President Zelenksyy to the UK last week. During the visit, the Prime Minister underlined the UK’s steadfast commitment to supporting Ukraine for the long term, ensuring it can secure a lasting peace.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
14 Feb 23. New Russian offensive underway in Ukraine, says NATO.
Summary
- Russia pounds Bakhmut front line in new offensive
- Russia says it has made incremental gains along front lines
- NATO to increase stockpiling of ammunition
- Moldovan president warns of Russian plot to topple leadership
The Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was facing heavy artillery fire as the NATO chief backed reports from officials in the area that Russia had launched a major new offensive, days before the first anniversary of its invasion.
Ukrainian defenders in the eastern city, who have held out for months, were defending new ground attacks under heavy shelling, Ukrainian military officials said.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in one settlement of the Kharkiv region, about five settlements in the Luhansk region and six in the Donetsk region, including in Bakhmut, over the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s military said early on Tuesday.
Positions in Bakhmut have been fortified and only people with a military role were being allowed in, while any civilians who wanted to leave would have to brave the incoming fire, a deputy battalion commander said on Monday.
“There is not a single square metre in Bakhmut that is safe or that is not in range of enemy fire or drones,” Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region, told the Ukrainian national broadcaster late on Monday.
Bakhmut is a prime objective for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and its capture would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and a rare victory after months of setbacks.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, now partially occupied by Russia which wants full control.
“We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, saying it was the start of a new offensive.
The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been spearheaded by mercenaries of the Wagner group, who in the past three days, have made small gains in the northern outskirts of Bakhmut, the British defence ministry said on Tuesday.
The tactical Russian advance to the south of Bakhmut had likely made little progress, the ministry said in a regular bulletin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian forces were trying to surround Bakhmut.
“Thank you to every one of our soldiers who are preventing the occupiers from encircling Bakhmut … and who are holding our key positions at the front,” Zelenskiy said in an evening address.
Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield reports.
(Source: Reuters)
13 Feb 23. Defense Ministers to Address NATO’s ‘Race for Logistics.’
NATO is in a race for logistics, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters as he previewed this week’s Defense Ministerial meeting in Brussels, today.
Defense ministers will gather at alliance headquarters to discuss how to best strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defense, and how to best supply Ukraine the arms and training its military needs to defeat the Russian invaders.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is traveling to Brussels to represent the United States at the meeting and also to convene a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
It has been a year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into neighboring Ukraine and tens of thousands have died in the unprovoked invasion. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and millions of Ukrainians have fled their homeland.
Acting on intelligence information, the NATO allies began beefing up forces in the Eastern part of the alliance even before the attacks of February 24, 2022. The United States now has around 100,000 service members based in Europe, with many in the Eastern countries that border Russia. Since then, nations around the globe have rallied to Ukraine, seeing Russia’s attack for what it is — a power grab, looking to overturn the international rules-based order.
“We will step up and sustain our support for Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said during a news conference. “Almost one year since the invasion, President Putin is not preparing for peace, he is launching new offensives.”
It is in the interests of all nations that Ukraine continues to receive this aid. “It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” he said. “Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield. Speed will save lives.”
Putin cannot be allowed to win and reshape the rules-based order. If that happens “the message to him and other authoritarian regimes is that force is rewarded,” the secretary general said. “That would make the world more dangerous and all of us more vulnerable.”
NATO has already done much, but the defense ministers will look to the longer term. The alliance doubled the number of battle groups in the east from four to eight, all backed by major air and naval power. “Now we need to ensure we have the right forces and capabilities for the longer term,” he said. “So, I expect allies will agree new guidance for NATO defense planning. This will be a key driver of capability changes and ensure credible deterrence and defense in the years to come.”
The defense ministers will also look at ways to increase defense industrial capacity and replenish stockpiles. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain.”
He said the wait time for large caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months. “We need to ramp up production, and invest in our production capacity,” he said.
“We have decided to establish a new coordination cell at NATO headquarters, to map our vulnerabilities, and engage with industry,” he said. “This will support our efforts to prevent and counter threats to critical infrastructure, including undersea cables and pipelines.”
Stoltenberg welcomed the recent announcements on new tanks, heavy weaponry and training for Ukraine. “I look forward to further deliveries,” he said. “Our message is clear: NATO stands with Ukraine, for as long as it takes.” (Source: US DoD)
14 Feb 23. Dutch F-35s intercept three Russian military aircraft near Poland – Netherlands’ defence ministry. Two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them out, the Netherlands’ defence ministry said in a statement late on Monday.
“The then unknown aircraft approached the Polish NATO area of responsibility from Kaliningrad,” according to Reuters’ translation of the ministry’s statement.
Kaliningrad is a Russian Baltic coast enclave located between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.
“After identification, it turned out to be three aircraft: a Russian IL-20M Coot-A that was escorted by two Su-27 Flankers. The Dutch F-35s escorted the formation from a distance and handed over the escort to NATO partners.”
The Il-20M Coot-A is NATO’s reporting name for the Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft while the Su-27 Flankers are NATO’s reporting name for the Sukhoi Su-28 fighter aircraft.
Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for a comment.
The Netherlands’ defence ministry said that eight Dutch F-35s are stationed in Poland for February and March. (Source: Reuters)
13 Feb 23. Western capitals will lay out additional pledges of ammunition and air defence equipment for Ukraine at a meeting on Tuesday to bolster Kyiv’s forces, officials told the Financial Times, in a gathering of allies that coincides with a planned large-scale offensive by Moscow. The fresh promises of military support come as Kyiv and Nato warn of ammunition shortages confronting Ukraine’s military in the face of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and as western capitals grow concerned at the effect of strained defence supply chains and dwindling domestic stockpiles. These immediate needs trumped longer-term requests for materiel such as fighter jets or quicker shipments of western battle tanks, officials said, given Russia’s new offensive, which Nato said on Monday had already begun. “What Ukraine tells us that they really need is ammunition and additional air defence capabilities,” a western official said. A US official said fighter jets were less important in the near term as Ukraine looked to maintain an edge. “What we really have to concentrate on now is Ukraine’s ability to defend the air and they’ll do that through air defence artillery, equipped with the proper ammunition. Fighter jets are not and will not be as capable against the Russian air force as an integrated air defence system,” said a US official. The official added: “This war has proven to be an artillery duel using mass amounts of artillery ammunition on both sides. The international community will seek to continue to supply Ukraine with the artillery it needs to defend itself.” Air defence support is seen to be necessary because of concerns over the relatively undiminished capability of the Russian air force. Western officials are worried it could be deployed more during Moscow’s spring offensive, which comes after months of Russian retreats in southern and eastern Ukraine. Julianne Smith, US ambassador to Nato, said the purpose of Tuesday’s meeting was to “understand the current requirements on the part of the Ukrainians and then match those requirements with new and additional pledges of assistance”. The gathering could also include talks about a greater number of more direct contracts between Kyiv and western defence companies, brokered and financed by allied countries, two officials said. That would streamline the flow of supplies from production line to deployment, while also acknowledging that western militaries have little more to give from their reserves. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.” Defence officials from some 50 countries allied with Ukraine will meet at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels for a regular meeting of the group, which first assembled at Ramstein US air base in Germany soon after the war began just over a year ago. Ukraine and Russia are engaged in fierce fighting around the town of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which US officials believe could fall to Moscow this week. The town is of little strategic importance but its loss would be a symbolic blow to Kyiv after months of fighting. Russia has also stepped up attacks elsewhere in the Donbas alongside renewed air and missile attacks on other areas of Ukraine as part of apparent shaping operations, designed to begin creating the conditions for a future battle. It has some 300,000 troops in Ukraine as it gears up for a new offensive. Additional ammunition will be crucial as Ukraine seeks to hold off Russia while it awaits more sophisticated weaponry from the US and other allies. Kyiv hopes these supplies will aid in its own spring counteroffensive. Last month the US and Germany agreed to provide main battle tanks. The American heavy armour will take months to arrive but German and British tanks could arrive in the spring. The US, UK and Germany also pledged infantry fighting vehicles, which will help Ukraine’s ability to manoeuvre and conduct combined arms operations. y While Moscow has fallen short of its original war aims, western officials see no signs that it is prepared to change course or rethink its operations. Increasingly Russia is using the sheer size of its forces as an advantage but has suffered steep casualties. American officials estimate about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pressing western allies to send fighter jets, though so far the US and other powers have not obliged. President Joe Biden has said the US will not send F-16s, but Washington officials concede they are likely to provide Ukraine with more sophisticated air power as the war drags on — or at least give a green light to the transfer of F-16s from other powers. The issue of supplying fighter jets will be discussed on Tuesday, two people briefed on the preparations said, while confirming that acquiring the aircraft was a longer-term objective for Kyiv and far less important than pressing needs such as ammunition. (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 23. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s whirlwind tour of European capitals last week to press allies for modern, long-range weapons was only partly successful. Ukraine’s president extracted a pledge from the UK to start training Ukrainian fighter pilots. Britain also made a vague offer of “long-range capabilities”. France, Germany and other allies in the EU were less forthcoming, rebuffing Zelenskyy’s pleas for fighter aircraft while ruling nothing out. Ukraine had more pressing military needs, President Emmanuel Macron said. Undeterred, Ukraine on Friday made a formal request to the Netherlands for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov is set to meet Nato defence ministers in Brussels on Tuesday with the aim to secure “an aviation platform” to protect Ukrainian skies, as well as more tanks and ammunition, he wrote on social media. Artillery and ammunition are Kyiv’s most urgent demands, which deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna told the Financial Times it needed “immediately”. So why is Zelenskyy setting so much store on weaponry that could take months if not years to arrive on the battlefield? It would take six months to train even experienced pilots how to fly an F-16 or another multirole jet and master its weapon systems. American-built M1 Abrams tanks, which are being supplied directly by the manufacturer General Dynamics, are unlikely to be delivered before 2024. Even the refurbished Leopard 1 and 2 tanks may take several months to arrive in the numbers promised. One reason Ukraine is pressing these demands is that it will inevitably have to switch away from Soviet-era equipment for which there are few and finite sources of ammunition and spare parts. Ukraine began the switch to Nato-standard artillery last summer with the first deliveries of US howitzers. A senior artillery officer last week told Ukrainska Pravda, a news outlet, that Ukraine’s armed forces were now firing more Nato-standard 155mm shells than 152mm Soviet-standard munitions, a tipping point in Ukraine’s transition to western-standard kit. Another reason is that Ukraine may be able to use its existing stocks of weaponry more freely if it knows it has replacement equipment arriving at a later date. It can throw more of its Soviet-era tanks into efforts to fend off an imminent Russian offensive, and then use its Leopards and Challengers in its expected counter-offensive later this spring. But Ukraine is also fighting a war of narratives with Russia and just as the Kremlin is telling the Russia people and the world to steel for a long conflict, Kyiv is trying to demonstrate its own resolve — and that of its supporters. Sending modern fighter jets would be a demonstration of the west’s commitment, said Yuriy Sak, adviser to Ukraine’s defence minister. “It would send a powerful message to the aggressor, saying that for Russia this is an unwinnable and unsustainable war because the free nations of the world will stand with Ukraine until victory and will provide Ukraine with all the necessary means that Ukraine needs to achieve this victory soon,” Sak said. Zelenskyy’s intensive lobbying for armaments is partly a response to Russia’s willingness to expend large numbers of its own troops on the battlefield, often for limited gains, said officials and analysts. Moscow mobilised some 300,000 men from September after Ukrainian forces smashed through its thin defensive lines in the north-east of the country to liberate thousands of square kilometres of territory. Now Russia appears to have no shortage of troops to throw into battle. “The two sets of forces and the associated operational concepts are looking very different,” Sir Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, wrote in a comment on Substack. “Russian forces are relying increasingly on sheer weight of numbers while Ukraine’s are relying more on the quality that comes with advanced western systems.” In the fierce fighting for Bakhmut, in the Donbas region, Russian commanders have been sending waves of lightly armed recruits to probe for weaknesses in Ukrainian positions before they are gunned down. The tactics are reminiscent of the first world war but also of Soviet commanders who readily threw their men into battle no matter the human cost. “The Russians’ strategy is to show it is much more resilient to casualties than Ukraine,” said Oleksandr K Danylyuk, head of the Centre for Defence Reforms, a think-tank in Kyiv. “That’s why they are ready to sacrifice as many of their troops as they need to.” Moscow was using its human waves approach on the front lines because it was “detecting the western support was less and less limited”, Danylyuk added. Many of the Russians killed in the battle for Bakhmut are believed to have been criminals recruited from prisons by the Wagner private military company. Last summer, it was conscripts from the occupied provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk who suffered horrific casualties fighting Kyiv’s forces. On his visit to the UK last week, Zelenskyy said that unless Ukraine was given advanced, long-range weaponry including fighter jets, the war could turn into a “stalemate” because of Moscow’s willingness to send so many of its men to die. “Russia has no pity for its own people,” Zelenskyy said. “They keep on throwing people into the battlefield. We have pity. We protect our people.” (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 23. Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying.
Indeed, when Russia invaded Ukraine last February, its allies resisted pleas for offensive aid and followed a narrow definition of protective equipment. In Berlin, leaders initially shied away from aid that didn’t fit the German definition of “defensive.”
That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine.
The evolving approach fits a conflict as fluid as it is unpredictable.
Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time.
Scholz has told Tagesspiegel newspaper he wants Russian President Vladimir Putin to answer one question: “How is the world getting out of this terrible situation?”
Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end.
Their answers are glum: The war will be expensive, cost lives and likely last at least a few years — or even become interminable. It will tax the American and European defense industries, especially when it comes to munitions, and could cause economic ruin in Russia. All this while the possibility of nuclear escalation remains.
And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.
“For this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch of Ukraine or Russian-occupied Ukraine,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters during a visit to Germany last month. “That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult.” (Source: Defense News)
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