NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

27 Jan.

DONETSK: Head of the Ukrainian Donetsk military administration Pavlo Kyrylenko stated on 26 January that Russian forces are intensifying their attacks in south-eastern Donetsk oblast, with fighting particularly fierce around Avdiivka and Vuhledar. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials have claimed this morning (27 January) that Russian forces have continued to entrench themselves on the south and eastern outskirts of Vuhledar, and are conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations inside the town itself. Notably, UK Defence Intelligence assessed this morning that it remains unlikely that Russian forces have achieved any substantive advances along both the Vuhledar and Zaporizhzhia axes in recent days, with Russian operations likely limited to local, probing attacks that don’t necessarily prefigure a major offensive effort.
BAKHMUT: Few notable developments to report as Russian ground assaults continue, making only marginal gains on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. Nevertheless, heavy fighting continues west of Donetsk city, though it remains unclear whether Russian forces have made any marginal advances in recent days. Some Russian sources have reported over the last 24-48 hours that DNR forces have been exhausted by continually launching attacks on this front and that their units are undermanned, which is set to prevent further advances on this axis without reinforcements.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian sources claimed on 26 January that Ukrainian forces have stepped up counter-offensive operations north-west of Kreminna, in a possible effort to make progress towards the town after months of only incremental gains. While unconfirmed, Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 144th Motorised Rifle Division repelled attacks by Ukrainian forces near Kreminna, forcing said Ukrainian forces to withdraw to their previously held positions. There have been numerous other reports of Ukrainian attacks on this axis over the last 24-48 hours, but it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces have made any advances, including along the R-66 highway that connects Kreminna to Svatove further north.
SOUTHERN: On 26 January, Ukrainian military officials once again denied that Russian forces are conducting large-scale offensive operations along the Zaporizhzhia front. Military spokesperson Colonel Yevhen Yerin claimed that Russian forces do not currently have a strike group capable of an offensive towards Zaporizhzhia at present, though he did note that Russian forces have reinforced the line at the expense of other axes. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has nevertheless claimed this morning (27 January) that its forces have continued to occupy ‘more advantageous lines’ in the Zaporizhzhia direction, but again there is little evidence to confirm this. Yerin assesses that Russian forces are likely intending to fix Ukrainian positions along the current frontline, while Russian military bloggers have continued to report on alleged Ukrainian preparations for a counter-offensive along this front.
SOUTHERN: Further west along the Kherson front, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an unsuccessful raid attempt across the Dnieper River on 26 January. Both sides have periodically been launching amphibious raids across the river, but neither side is likely attempting to permanently take ground or establish beachheads along the river.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

ENERGY: Updated reports from the Ukrainian General Staff indicate that Russia’s strike campaign yesterday (26 January) was slightly more lethal than initially reported. Rather than intercepting 47 out of 55 cruise missiles, Kyiv has now reported that 70 missiles were fired, indicating a lower interdiction rate than previously assessed. Ukrenergo confirmed this morning (27 January) that the strikes had caused ‘substantial damage’ to the country’s power grid and that with every new strike ‘the recovery of the power grid becomes harder and lasts longer’. While Ukraine’s interdiction rates remain relatively high, and all Shahed-136 drones were successfully shot down during yesterday’s attacks, Russia’s barrage tactics are still succeeding in reaching numerous energy targets and triggering widespread blackouts, underscoring the need for more Western air defence aid to protect urban centres. Ukrenergo has this morning confirmed that rolling blackouts have been put in place across ten oblasts: Cherkasy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Rivne, Zaporizhzhia, Volyn and Zhytomyr.
ECONOMY: According to officials cited by Bloomberg, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering providing Ukraine with a new large-scale aid package worth USD 16 billion over a three-to-four-year programme. While unconfirmed at this stage, any IMF loan package would remain contingent upon endorsement from the G7 and Kyiv’s existing creditors to ensure the sustainability of the national debt. The ambitious programme would also require wide-ranging commitments from Kyiv as well as changes to the IMF’s existing rules on lending. However, if approved by the end of March, the first tranche could come as early as April as part of a USD 5-7 billion package in the first year. Such funds would go a long way to balancing the Ukrainian state budget and improving macro-economic stability in the short to medium term, given Kyiv continues to run a large deficit amid military spending.
AID: On 26 January, the Pentagon confirmed that it will be transferring 31 of the more advanced M1A2 variant of the Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine. While the specific variant of the A2 has not been confirmed, any of the three A2 variants marks a significant step up in terms of capability compared to older A1s, which the US has in large numbers in reserve stocks. However, given the more advanced capabilities of the A2, Washington confirmed that it does not have these systems in reserve stocks and as such transfer of the tanks to Ukraine will take ‘months’. The A2 is one of the most capable tanks in the world and will provide the given Ukrainian battalion outfitted with the tanks increased mobility, lethality and survivability due to upgraded command, optics and digital diagnostic systems. However, this will represent only a small portion of Ukraine’s overall tank fleet, and even in combination with the committed Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks, the numbers are unlikely to prove a pivotal game changer on the battlefield. Kyiv has previously indicated it requires around 300 Western main battle tanks to make a major difference.
AID: Poland confirmed on 27 January that in addition to the 14 Leopard 2 tanks already committed, it will send an additional 60 modernised Soviet-era tanks, including 30 PT-91 Twardys. Poland also has indicated that it hopes to deliver its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine ‘within a few weeks’, and as a result, are likely to be the first Western main battle tanks supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Poland has consistently provided the largest number of tanks to Ukraine throughout the war, transferring over 260 Soviet-era T-72m(R) and T-72M1(R) tanks to date, which have helped offset Ukrainian losses sustained in over 11 months of war.
WAGNER GROUP: On 26 January, the US formally designated the Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner Group a ‘significant transnational criminal organisation’. Washington also imposed sanctions on various individuals and entities connected to the group, including various front companies that support Wagner’s financial and propaganda operations. The US accuses Wagner Group of engaging in serious criminal activity across the globe, in particular ‘mass executions, rape, child abductions and physical abuse’ in the Central African Republic and Mali. Despite potential exposure to secondary sanctions, this designation is unlikely to drive a revocation of Wagner group contracts by these states, given the administrations’ close relations with Russia and the utilisation of Wagner to advance security and political agendas.

FORECAST

CORRUPTION: The US confirmed on 26 January that it has auditors in Ukraine working alongside the World Bank and Deloitte to ensure ‘no aid or weapons are diverted’, amid a growing corruption scandal within the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. The ongoing scandal relates primarily to allegations around buying food and generators for troops at inflated prices, and there is little indication at present that weapons have been diverted for corrupt ends on a large scale. However, it clearly remains a risk in a country that has long struggled with anti-corruption reform. In a related development that underscores wider threats from within Ukrainian state entities, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) confirmed on 26 January that it had detained a lieutenant colonel from amongst its own ranks on suspicion of high treason. The unnamed individual is suspected of passing state and military secrets to Russian agents, including photographing plans of military checkpoints on the Zaporizhzhia front. This is the latest high-profile arrest from within the ranks of the SBU and underscores that even after 11 months of war and numerous purges of alleged informants, Russian intelligence has still likely penetrated various Ukrainian state institutions. During previous counter-intelligence investigations, large payments of cash have been found to be amongst the principal motivations for such espionage, reinforcing the wider threat posed by corruption within the Ukrainian state and the wider war effort.

Cyber Update

Germany: Russian-affiliated attack on German industries underscores threat to other states following weapons announcements to Ukraine. On 25 January, Russian-affiliated threat actor, Killnet, conducted a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on German airports, public administration bodies and financial sector organisations. This DDoS attack comes after Germany confirmed that they would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to assist them in fighting the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Whilst the attacks made numerous websites unavailable, German authorities stated that there was no indication of any direct impact on organisations’ business operations. Killnet is known for conducting DDoS attacks on countries that have supported Ukraine throughout 2022, including attacks on Romania, Italy, the Czech Republic, Norway, and Lithuania. Killnet and other Russian-affiliated threat actors will continue to target countries that are seen to support Ukraine during the conflict with similar attacks. Therefore, the operational and security threats posed to government, public services, aviation, and financial sectors in Europe remain high, particularly following major announcements around weapons transfers to Ukraine.

26 Jan.

DONETSK: Russian offensive operations against Vuhledar continue to intensify, with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence acknowledging that Russian forces retain a numerical and equipment superiority in the area. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar reported on 25 January that Russian forces have been throwing a significant quantity of personnel at both Bakhmut and Vuhledar in recent days in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defences. This morning (26 January), advisor to the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Igor Kimakovsky claimed that Russian forces have now ‘entrenched’ themselves on the outskirts of Vuhledar, and that the objective of Russian forces is now to steadily encircle the town rather than conduct a direct assault. DNR sources have also claimed that Russian troops are in control of the Mariinka-Vuhledar road, though these claims remain unconfirmed and it still remains to be seen whether these attacks are a genuine offensive effort, or are merely spoiling attacks as discussed previously.
BAKHMUT: The commander of the Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on 25 January that Bakhmut continues to be the centre of heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine, and Russian forces are consistently launching assaults on the outskirts of the town. However, there are few indications to suggest Russian forces have made any notable advances in the last 24 hours, amid continued efforts to set conditions for the eventual encirclement of the town.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Heavy fighting continues along the Svatove-Kreminna axis as Ukrainian forces continue to make slow progress towards Kreminna. Various reports over the last 48 hours indicates continued fighting along the R-66/N-26 highways. While it remains unconfirmed, geolocated footage emerging from earlier this week suggests that Ukrainian forces have made some progress west of Dibrova, three miles (5km) southwest of Kreminna, after reportedly repulsing a Russian airborne (VDV) convoy.
SOUTHERN: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has confirmed that Russian forces are launching small-scale, limited attacks along the Zaporizhzhia line in order to undermine Ukrainian defences and disperse their forces. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces Natalya Humenyuk reported on 25 January that Russian forces are nevertheless funnelling in additional reserves to the front to offset heavy losses. Vladimir Rogov, the head of the Russian occupation movement ‘We Are With Russia’, has continued to make various claims of Russian advances along this axis, but there is little evidence at present to support almost any of his claims in recent days.
STRIKES: This morning (26 January), Russia launched its latest long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian urban targets, including over 55 cruise missiles, 47 of which were reportedly shot down. Following the last large-scale strike on 14 January, the timing of this morning’s strike once again fits the established pattern of a large-scale strike every 1.5-2 weeks, but also clearly comes in retaliation to the West’s decision to provide main battle tanks to Ukraine (see below).
STRIKES: Over 15 cruise missiles reportedly targeted the Kyiv region alone, and the Ukrainian Air Force has claimed that they had all been intercepted. However, debris did cause a small number of casualties in the Holosiyivskyi district, illustrating the enduring threat of collateral damage even if Russian missiles do not hit their targets. Russian missiles, which included two Kh-47 ‘Kinzhal’s, Kh-101/Kh-555 and Kalibr cruise missiles, also hit energy infrastructure targets in Odesa and Vinnytsia, with previous strikes hitting Dnipropetrovsk region. Widespread blackouts are reported, with authorities pre-emptively restricting energy usage in the hours ahead of the attack.
STRIKES: The Ukrainian Air Force also confirmed that its air defences had successfully shot down 24 Shahed-136/131 drones overnight, prior to this morning’s strikes. These strikes took place in central Ukraine as well as against the capital, and as a result could have been an attempt by Russian forces to force Ukrainian air defences to expend ammunition on lower-priority drones in order to increase the likelihood of precision missiles penetrating thinner air defences and striking their targets this morning. Given initial Ukrainian Air Force reports, it remains unlikely that this successfully decreased Ukraine’s interception rate of missiles. However, it nevertheless underscores the varying tactics Russian forces are likely experimenting with to increase their strikes’ lethality

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

AID: Momentum continues to build following the US and German decision to transfer main battle tanks to Ukraine, reinforcing the elevated threat of limited or hybrid Russian retaliation. Canada has stated it is willing to provide ‘at least 10’ of its own Leopard 2s, while Norway has committed an undecided number (possibly eight) of Leopard 2A4s. The Pentagon has furthermore stated on 25 January that training on the Abrams tanks will begin ‘in weeks, not months’, though it still remains unclear when Abrams will transfer to Ukraine – and thereafter when fresh Ukrainian armoured battalions will be able to deploy in combat to support counter-offensive operations. Meanwhile, Germany’s new Defence Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed this morning (26 January) that Berlin will deliver its 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine ‘by the end of March’ at the latest. For further analysis on the provision of Western weaponry, see FORECAST below.
NEGOTIATIONS: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with Sky News on 26 January that he is ‘not interested’ in meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin for peace talks. Zelensky’s statement merely reiterates Kyiv’s long-held stance, which has legally established ‘the impossibility of conducting negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin’ in October 2022.
MARITIME: Earlier this week, a missile struck a Turkish-owned cargo vessel in the port of Kherson, causing a fire. The ship in question, the Tuzla, is one of 12 Turkish-owned ships that have been stranded in Ukrainian ports since February 2022, but are crucially not covered by the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Lloyd’s of London had previously estimated that some 19 merchant vessels had been attacked or damaged since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. This latest incident underscores the enduring threat to maritime assets currently trapped in Ukrainian ports. However, this latest attack is unlikely to impact the continuation of said grain programme from other ports further west, which continue to export numerous shipments of grain every week. Nevertheless, this morning’s strikes against Odesa reiterate that the Ukrainian Black Sea coast will remain vulnerable to strikes and major energy instability for the foreseeable future.

FORECAST

ESCALATION: Now that a ‘tank coalition’ has emerged, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on 25 January that Ukraine’s new task is acquiring Western fighter jets. Politico this morning (26 January) reported that discussions among NATO diplomats and officers are already underway on the issue, led by the Baltic states. The Netherlands has already proposed sending F-16s to Ukraine, and the COO of Lockheed Martin, the producers of the F-16, confirmed on 16 January that the company stands ready to support third-party transfers of the jets. The company is preparing to ramp up production of the jets to backfill any potential re-exports to Ukraine. Up until now the US has refused to send F-16s, and like the Leopard 2s in Germany, Washington must grant approval for other operators to re-export the fighters. While direct transfers of F-16s are now being discussed, a more likely intermediate option in the shorter term would be the transfer of Soviet-era fighters from former Eastern Bloc states, especially MiG-29s. This would limit the scope for escalation as well as avoid the potential backlash from Turkey if the US and its allies were to supply F-16s to Ukraine – given NATO ally Ankara has long been frustrated in its efforts to acquire the jets. The head of the Russian arms control delegation in Vienna, Konstantin Gavrilov, this morning did not rule out the eventual supply of Western aircraft to Ukraine, but notably underplayed the impact this would have on the battlefield. Gavrilov claimed that while the provision of F-16s and MiG-29s wasn’t ‘good’, Russian forces control Ukrainian air space with its air defences and that ‘we will cope’. While Gavrilov is not a senior spokesperson for the Kremlin, and Kremlin policy may change, his comments could indicate that Moscow is prepared to accept the eventual transfer of Western aircraft. However, reflecting the wider ‘slippery slope’ of Western weapon transfers, it remains to be seen whether Moscow will want to pre-empt any F-16 decision and attempt to set down a ‘red line’. In response to the building ‘tank coalition’, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated today (26 January) that the delivery of Western main battle tanks is seen by Moscow as ‘direct involvement’ in the conflict in Ukraine. Peskov’s comments follow his earlier reassurances to domestic audiences on 25 January that the provision of Western tanks is ‘a failure’ and there has been a general ‘overestimation of the potential that they will add’ to Ukrainian capability. This contradictory messaging likely reflects the Kremlin’s efforts to at once assuage concerns amongst hardliner and pro-war communities inside Russia over Ukraine’s growing counter-offensive capabilities, while reinforcing its escalatory narrative to the West as part of its strategic deterrence campaign. Peskov also stated this morning that the Kremlin is not considering changing the status of the ‘special military operation’ in response to the provision of Western tanks, though the Kremlin is set to increase accusations of direct NATO involvement in Ukraine.

Central Asia: Gazprom deal will bolster Moscow’s leverage, strengthen energy security during winter. On 24 January, Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom announced the signing of a roadmap for cooperation with Uzbekistan. Last week, Kazakhstan also signed a similar agreement. Notably, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan previously rejected a ‘gas union’ with Russia proposed by President Vladimir Putin in November 2022. The apparent change of policy is likely due to the extreme weather the region experienced in recent weeks, the coldest in decades. While full details of the roadmap were not published, the previous offer made to Uzbekistan included the transfer of its gas transmission system to Gazprom at market value and signing over its contract for gas exports to China. If the new roadmap has similar terms, it will increase Moscow’s leverage in the region and undermine diversification efforts. However, it will ultimately improve basic energy security in Central Asia, given that domestic production has proven insufficient to prevent energy outages and gas shortages during the winter.

25 Jan.

BAKHMUT: Russian forces have likely continued to make marginal gains on the outskirts of Bakhmut over the last 24-48 hours, though they are unlikely to retain control over all Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into the town. Numerous Russian sources, including Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin, now claim that recent advances around Klishchiivka (south-west of Bakhmut) and Krasna Hora (north-east) have provided Russian forces with operational control over all Ukrainian GLOCs into Bakhmut, including the T-0504 and M-03 (E40) highways. However, this is unlikely to be entirely the case, despite reports of the destruction of a railway bridge over the M-03 earlier this week. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Grouping of Forces Serhiy Cherevaty formally acknowledged earlier on 25 January that the last Ukrainian troops have left Soledar and taken up new defensive positions further west.

DONETSK: Russian sources claimed on 24 January that their forces have launched a new offensive around Vuhledar, located 30 miles (47km) to the south-west of Donetsk city. Various Russian sources have claimed a breakthrough north of Pavlivka, though these remain unconfirmed at this stage. In November 2022, DNR forces, supported by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, launched a highly costly assault towards Vuhledar and Pavlivka, which resulted in very high casualties and vehicle losses. It remains unclear to what extent the 155th and DNR battalions have reconstituted since then. However, in the absence of sizeable reinforcements, it is unlikely that Russian forces are currently in a position to make sizeable advances on this axis at present.
DONETSK: The reported Vuhledar offensive follows claims of an earlier Zaporizhzhia offensive, which has so far yielded few results, or indeed evidence that a large-scale offensive even took place. While the Ukrainian General Staff did confirm earlier on 25 January that Russian forces are attempting to advance around Vuhledar, it remains to be seen whether Russian claims of a major offensive form part of a co-ordinated information operation designed to confuse and distract from preparations for the upcoming spring offensive.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: The heaviest fighting along this axis in recent days has focused on efforts to wrest control over stretches of the R-66/N-26 highways which connect Svatove to Kreminna. The village of Novoselivske, located eight miles (14km) north-west of Svatove, remains a particularly kinetic focal point. Russian sources also report heavy fighting in the densely wooded area north-west of Kreminna, where Ukrainian forces continue to struggle to gain momentum in their approach to the town proper.
SOUTHERN: The Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier on 25 January that Russian forces remain on the defensive along both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia lines. While Russian sources continue to claims limited advances south of Zaporizhzhia, there is scant evidence to support this. Notably, the acting Russian governor of Zaporizhzhia oblast, Yevgeny Balitsky, claimed earlier on 25 January that Ukrainian forces are massing near the city of Zaporizhzhia in preparation for a counter-offensive. Crucially, he also claimed that while Russian forces have amassed enough resources to launch offensive operations on this axis, they must bear in mind ongoing Ukrainian preparations and reinforcements. As such, Balitsky claimed that it ‘is better to meet the enemy on the defensive’. This is possibly an attempt to justify the seemingly false earlier claims that Russian forces had launched an offensive on the Zaporizhzhia axis, dampening expectations of any advances in the coming weeks.
MORALE: On 24 January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law new measures that will toughen the legal liability for military desertion and insubordination at the front. The move comes after Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny called for tighter punishments in December 2022. This clearly indicates that Ukrainian forces are suffering from morale and discipline issues at the front. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 20 December 2022.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

AID: Germany and the US have both decided to make formal announcements later on 25 January regarding the transfer of Leopard 2 and Abrams main battle tanks. The transfer will mark a major boost for Ukrainian capabilities in 2023. On 24 January, Der Spiegel and the Wall Street Journal revealed that decisions have been made after weeks of uncertainty and delay, citing unnamed German and US officials. Earlier on 25 January, Berlin announced that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz approved the decision and that it will supply a company of Leopard 2 A6 tanks (14 in number). The US is likely to announce that it will supply 30 M1 Abrams. However, of wider significance is that the German decision will open the re-export of large numbers of Leopard 2s by other NATO states. Those states which have indicated a willingness to transfer Leopard 2s include Denmark, Finland, Poland (at least 14), Portugal (4), the Netherlands (which is considering purchasing 18) and Spain (Madrid is undecided, though it possesses one of the largest stocks of Leopard 2s in Europe). Other states are likely to join the growing coalition in the days ahead, with France also indicating it is considering transfers of Leclerc tanks.
AID: Of additional significance, and reflective of the wider momentum building across the West, Switzerland’s parliament formally approved an initiative on 24 January which would permit the re-export of Swiss-made military equipment to Ukraine. In a similar vein to Berlin’s control of re-export licenses for Leopard 2s, the Swiss government has consistently blocked various types of weapons being transferred to Ukraine – including ammunition for the Gepard anti-air guns which have proven highly effective against Iranian-produced drones. This will further ease logistical and ammunition issues for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the coming months. However, the decision also increases the risk of the Russian authorities punitively targeting Swiss companies’ operations in Russia due to perceptions that Bern has abandoned neutrality. In March 2022, the Russian authorities seized millions of dollars’ worth of Audemars Piguet luxury watches in Moscow in apparent retaliation for Bern’s ban on luxury goods exports to Russia.
AID: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny previously stated that Ukrainian forces require around 300 main battle tanks to enable a major counter-offensive effort. The total number of tanks being pledged remains unclear, though current estimates put the number at around 100. This number is likely to grow steadily throughout 2023. While the timeframe for the transfer of these Western tanks remains unclear, their provision and training programmes will likely present opportunities for Ukrainian offensive operations in the latter half of 2023 (though possibly before) as part of a summer counter-offensive. Outfitting new armoured battalions would provide Ukrainian forces with fresh opportunities to execute manoeuvre operations and generate momentum akin to the Kharkiv counter-offensive in September 2022 – particularly given that the Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks were specifically designed to counter Russia’s T-90s.
ESCALATION: Given this Western ‘tank coalition’, Russia will likely respond by ratcheting up escalatory rhetoric and threats in a bid to curb further momentum related to additional advanced weapons deliveries. The Netherlands’ earlier proposal to supply F-16s to Ukraine clearly illustrates the ambitions of certain Western states. The Kremlin will almost certainly want to prevent this trend. As such, Russian information operations will likely be aimed at damage control in order to mitigate the possibility of growing Western confidence to supply Ukraine with advanced weapons. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 23 January 2023 and for analysis of maritime hybrid operations, see FORECAST below.
BELARUS: Earlier on 25 January, spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky reported that the total number of Russian troops in Belarus has fallen to around 5,800, down from around 11,000 a week ago. According to the GUR, elements of the Russian 2nd Mechanised Division which had previously been in Belarus have now redeployed to Ukraine, with other units of the 6th Division also redeploying to Russia for training. These movements are highly likely related to preparations for Russia’s upcoming Spring offensives, which Kyiv anticipates will fall largely in the Donbas in the coming months. This once again strongly supports our overall assessment that any Russian and/or Belarusian offensive against northern Ukraine remains highly unlikely in the short to medium term. Currently, there is no identifiable force capable of launching such an operation.

FORECAST

MARITIME: This week, the Estonian foreign ministry announced that it is considering establishing a ‘contiguous zone’ adjacent to its territorial waters in the Gulf of Finland. In theory, this would allow Tallinn to inspect Russian vessels in international waters connecting to the Baltic Sea. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a coastal state can establish a contiguous zone 12 additional nautical miles from its territorial waters (which extend to 12 nautical miles from its coastline). In this contiguous zone, a state can enforce its own laws on various matters, including customs, taxation, immigration and pollution issues. Estonia is encouraging Finland to do the same, though Helsinki has not indicated whether it will do so, almost certainly due to its impending NATO accession. Even without a Finnish decision, Estonia’s move would legally impose Estonian law onto a three-nautical-mile-long passage across the middle of the Gulf of Finland known as the GOFREP operational area. The GOFREP is currently treated as an open international waterway where national laws do not apply. There have been media reports in Estonia and elsewhere that such a move would effectively cut off the Baltic Sea to Russian naval and civilian vessels. This is untrue under international law. Russian commercial and naval vessels will retain the right of freedom of navigation through any ‘contiguous zone’ to and from St Petersburg, the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Rather, the move would allow Estonia to enforce international sanctions compliance on maritime shipping. This would in theory allow Estonian vessels to pursue and inspect Russian vessels to ensure compliance with EU sanctions. The Kremlin has not refuted its right to do so should Tallinn move forward with the proposal. The development comes amid a general deterioration of Russian-Baltic relations this week after all three Baltic states expelled their Russian ambassadors. While Estonia’s NATO membership means that any conventional Russian retaliation remains highly unlikely, the maritime domain provides Russia with a wide range of plausibly deniable grey zone and hybrid opportunities to demonstrate both its capability and will to escalate. We previously explored the enduring vulnerability of undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. Given Estonia’s intentions, we will once again highlight the growing possibility of plausibly deniable Russian undersea hybrid operations against the Balticconnector pipeline, which runs underneath the Gulf of Finland and the GEOFREP area. Such operations are increasingly likely if Finland follows suit and also establishes its own contiguous zone, cutting off the GOFREP area, especially in light of its bid to join NATO. Any potential hybrid operations in the Baltics would constitute part of Russia’s ongoing strategic deterrence campaign. Amid the developing Western ‘tank coalition’, the likelihood of Russian hybrid retaliation will increase.

Ukraine: High-profile resignations reflect government’s commitment to anti-corruption reforms. As of 24 January, multiple high-profile government officials have handed in their resignations amid a large-scale reshuffle following various corruption scandals. Among the resigned officials are President Volodymyr Zelensky’s close aide, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko and Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov. President Zelensky has signalled that other top officials are expected to leave the government in the coming days, with unconfirmed reports that several regional governors will resign as well. If accurate, this would signal that the president seeks to overhaul not only the central government but also regional administrations. Zelensky’s swift action and widespread personnel changes are aimed at demonstrating to Western policymakers and investors his administration’s zero-tolerance approach to corruption and a commitment to deep-rooted reform; a commitment which will be vital to ensure long-term Western support for Ukraine’s war effort.

Cyber Update

Key Points

During this monitoring period, we observed an increase in pro-Russia cyber attacks targeting NATO countries. There were likely in response to discussions over military assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, an alleged cyber attack against Samsung indicates the increased vulnerability of governments such as South Korea to pro-Russia cyber attacks. If confirmed, the attack was likely carried out due to Seoul’s ties with NATO, regardless of its relatively limited involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Finally, the Kremlin-backed Gamaredon Group’s sophisticated spear phishing campaign against Ukrainian targets via Telegram remains on trend with the diversification of pro-Russia cyber techniques. However, relatively lower-level phishing and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks will continue to represent the primary tactics used by pro-Russia hacking groups, particularly those operating without state sponsorship.
During this monitoring period, we observed an increase in joint pro-Kyiv cyber operations against Russian government entities and infrastructure. This trend will likely persist in the coming weeks. The pro-Ukraine hacking group Team OneFist will almost certainly launch further relatively sophisticated attacks in the coming days. There is a realistic possibility that these attacks will also involve members of the Anonymous RoughSec group. Meanwhile, the Anonymous collective resumed cyber attacks against Serbian government entities. However, recent reports indicate potential shortcomings in the group’s cyber capabilities and in the quality of purported leaked Serbian government documents.

Latest Significant Updates

Pro-Russia cyber attacks have increased against NATO and allied governments; the Kremlin-sponsored Gamaredon Group has employed a new phishing technique against Ukrainian targets

On 23 January, cyber security Twitter accounts reported that the pro-Russia cyber threat actor, NoName05716, launched DDoS attacks targeting Estonia’s Ministry of Finance website. This comes after the group allegedly carried out cyber attacks against German companies on 21 January, including Schunk Intec LLC, a manufacturing company specialising in clamping technology.
On 22 January, the pro-Russia branch of the decentralised Anonymous collective, Anonymous Russia, claimed to have launched cyber attacks against the website of the German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann. Anonymous Russia provided no further details of the attacks, which are likely to have been low-level DDoS attacks causing limited operational disruption.
On 19 January, BlackBerry’s Research and Intelligence Team reported that they observed sophisticated phishing attacks carried out by the Russian state-sponsored Gamaredon Group (also known as Primitive Bear or Actinium) against Ukrainian targets. BlackBerry uncovered a new campaign by the cyber espionage group in November 2022. The campaign used Telegram to profile victims, including employees of strategic Ukrainian industries such as law enforcement and the military. The group then selectively distributed falsified Ukrainian government documents infected with malware in a technique known as ‘spear-phishing’. The opening of the malicious document triggered the launch of a multi-stage data-theft attack.
On 17 January, the pro-Russia hacktivist group Genesis Day claimed to have breached the internal storage servers of the South Korean manufacturing conglomerate Samsung. Research by the cyber security outlet Cybernews revealed that the data included Samsung’s corporate log-in manuals, educational videos and an employee’s password. However, the data do not suggest that Genesis Day managed to access sensitive corporate information.

Pro-Kyiv hacking groups have increased joint cyber operations; Anonymous attacks against Serbian government targets reflect potential shortfalls in the collective’s cyber capabilities

On 16-21 January, pro-Kyiv cyber threat actors Team OneFist and Anonymous RoughSec, a sub-group of the decentralised Anonymous collective, carried out their second joint operation, labelled Operation Juliett. The operation targeted Russian digital, energy, logistics and telecommunications infrastructure at Moscow State University and Russia’s largest digital services provider, Rostelecom. The leader of Team OneFist, Voltage, reported that the team planted a piece of code with a trigger, known as a ‘software bomb’, in the targeted systems to ‘cut power every few hours’. Voltage reported ongoing network outages in some parts of Russia as of 23 January.
On 20 January, pro-Kyiv cyber threat actors Anonymous RoughSec and the Atlas Intelligence Group (AIG) claimed that they successfully hacked Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) servers. The hackers allegedly stole and leaked information including the names, emails and phone numbers of FSB employees. However, the validity of these claims and the quality of the alleged stolen data has not been independently verified.
On 17 January, the pro-Kyiv Anonymous collective reported that it had leaked ‘dozens of confidential documents from the Serbian government’. However, web links providing access to the allegedly leaked documents were deleted on the same day. It is unclear whether the Anonymous group deleted the links.

24 Jan.

OFFENSIVES: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky reported that Kyiv expects Russian forces to intensify their offensives in eastern Ukraine in the spring or early summer of 2023. Reiterating previous intelligence assessments, Skibitsky stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has likely ordered his forces to take Donetsk oblast by March, and that the coming Russian spring offensive will also likely include an effort to retake lost territory in Luhansk oblast. Skibitsky assessed that these offensives will be hugely decisive moments of the war. He also revealed that intelligence indicates that preparations are underway for a large-scale offensive in the Donbas. Notably, Skibitsky outlined that in recent months Russian forces have changed tactics on the ground, relying increasingly on assault groups made up of 140-160 troops (as opposed to much larger battalions) to make advances. This aligns with wider indicators we have observed in recent months, and suggests that Russian forces are struggling to co-ordinate larger-scale attacks involving bigger units.
BAKHMUT: Russian sources continue to claim their forces, including Wagner Group units, are making steady progress on the outskirts of Bakhmut town. However, these claims remain unconfirmed. Indeed, Ukrainian sources also report that successful, albeit limited, Ukrainian counterattacks are holding the line. Russian forces have claimed over the last 24 hours that Ukrainian positions near Klishchiivka, four miles (7km) south-west of Bakhmut, have collapsed and that Russian forces are advancing north-west towards the T-0504 highway – a key Ukrainian ground line of communication (GLOC) into Bakhmut. While drone footage released by Ukrainian forces on 23 January does appear to confirm that Russian forces have taken Klishchiivka, further advances to the west remain unconfirmed.
BAKHMUT: In addition, unconfirmed Ukrainian sources inside Bakhmut indicated earlier on 24 January that a key railway bridge crossing the M-03 (E40) highway to the north-west of Bakhmut was destroyed in recent days. It remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces collapsed the bridge to slow down further Russian advances in the north of the city, or whether it was destroyed by the Russians to prevent supplies reaching Ukrainian forces. Both scenarios are plausible given that the frontline is now estimated to be less than 1.5 miles (2km) east of the railway crossing point. In addition, the Russians are making incremental progress in the north – but in the absence of further breakthroughs, they still currently remain far from their objective of encircling the town.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Heavy fighting continues to the north-west of Svatove and Kreminna as Russian forces attempt to retake lost positions west of the Krasna River. Conflicting reports over the last 24-48 hours have obscured our ability to confirm advances on either side, though claims by former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, that Russian forces hold positions within 50-200 metres of Ukrainian lines in places indicates the close-quarters nature of fighting in wooded areas, particularly to the north-west of Kreminna. The Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier on 24 January that Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful offensive along the northern sector of the front near Kupiansk, and that the fiercest fighting is assessed to be taking place further south along the western banks of the Krasna River.
SOUTHERN: There are very few indications that Russian forces have made notable gains along the Zaporizhzhia front in recent days, despite some Russian claims following the announcement of a new ‘offensive’. Vladimir Rogov, the head of the Russian occupation movement ‘We Are With Russia’, recently made unsubstantiated claims that Russian forces have taken various villages along the front. He alleged earlier on 24 January that Ukrainian forces are refusing orders to defend key positions around Huliapole. The Ukrainian General Staff maintained on both 23 and 24 January that Russian forces have remained on the defensive along the Zaporizhzhia front, reiterating its denial that any large-scale offensive is taking place. While fighting is taking place along the Zaporizhzhia axis, Rogov’s claims may be part of an information operation, though it remains unclear what he hopes to achieve given the apparent lack of any notable Russian advances along the front.
WAGNER GROUP: New Ukrainian intelligence acquired by CNN has provided further details on the Wagner Group’s tactics in eastern Ukraine, which Kyiv considers a ‘unique threat’ at close quarters (despite their extremely high casualty rates). The Ukrainian intelligence report dates to December 2022 and states that Wagner Group forces operate primarily as small mobile groups of around a dozen personnel, making heavy use of rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and real-time drone intelligence – which Kyiv considers the ‘key element’ of Wagner’s effectiveness.
WAGNER GROUP: According to Ukrainian intelligence, Wagner troops are actively forbidden to withdraw without express orders, risking summary execution on the spot if they flee. Convicts, who are estimated to make up around 40,000 of the group’s 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, are the first troops who are ordered to attack; they suffer casualty rates of up to 80%, according to Ukrainian estimates. More experienced and better-equipped forces are then sent in to press the attack. Notably, the report also states that co-ordination between Wagner and regular Russian forces is often limited, increasing the risks of friendly fire. Notably, according to a separate report published by the independent Russian human rights organisation Rus Sidashchaya on 23 January, only 10,000 Wagner troops are currently fighting on the frontline in Ukraine due to high casualty, surrender and desertion rates. Ultimately, the reports support our wider assessments of Wagner tactics in Ukraine, and underpin the ‘two-tiered’ nature of Wagner forces, namely the convict cannon fodder and the more professional and well-equipped contract troops.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BELARUS: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed earlier on 24 January that Ukraine has proposed a ‘non-aggression pact’ with Belarus. He also claimed that Kyiv continues to train ‘militants’ who pose a threat to Belarus’ national security. It remains unclear whether any such discussions are taking place between Minsk and Kyiv. However, Lukashenka’s accusations align with the long-held allegation that Ukrainian forces pose a threat to the ‘Union State’ of Russia-Belarus. Notably, during his intelligence briefing (see OFFENSIVES above), GUR spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky reiterated that Kyiv does not anticipate a joint Russian-Belarusian invasion from southern Belarus in the coming months. The Ukrainian General Staff also confirmed that it has seen no indication of strike groups forming in southern Belarus
AID: Earlier on 24 January, the Polish government formally requested the transfer of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. This represents the first major legal test of German policy on the issue. Berlin retains the authority to approve or disapprove the re-export of its Leopard 2 tanks to third parties. Although German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock previously stated Germany would not block such requests, it remains to be seen whether the Chancellery will approve the transfer. Poland previously indicated that it could push ahead with transferring the tanks even if Berlin denies their request, making the issue a critical test of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tank policy. On 23 January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that he was ‘confident’ that a decision on sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine will be made ‘soon’, which German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius reiterated earlier on 24 January. Pistorius also indicated that mounting international pressure may force Scholz’s hand.
BORDERS: Russian state media reported earlier on 24 January that Russian lawmakers have drafted a bill requiring citizens to register online in order to book a timeslot to cross the country’s international border. The proposed law will grant border guards new powers to forcibly stop trucks and lorries crossing the frontier, and will affect both Russian and foreign nationals. The law would in effect prevent individuals transporting cargo from spontaneously attempting to leave the country without forewarning, though the Kremlin has noted that ‘private cars’ will not be affected. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed earlier on 24 January that Moscow is not considering imposing further restrictions on Russians intending to exit the country.
BORDERS: The proposed law outlined above is the latest indication that Moscow is likely preparing for new rounds of mobilisation and/or conscription in Q1 2023. Russia is likely pre-emptively introducing measures to avoid a repeat of the mass exodus of military-aged men following its partial mobilisation decree in September 2022. However, while the new law will supposedly not impact private cars, precedent could well be used to limit private travel at any point under current martial law conditions if and when a new round of mobilisation is announced.

FORECAST

CORRUPTION: As of 24 January, multiple high-profile Ukrainian government officials have handed in their resignations amid a large-scale reshuffle following various corruption scandals. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau confirmed on 23 January that it has opened an investigation into possible procurement abuses within the defence ministry. Those who have resigned so far include Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko (President Volodymyr Zelensky’s close aide), Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko and Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov. Numerous other senior politicians, almost all deputy heads of departments, have also resigned; their replacements are being finalised by the presidential administration. However, the government overhaul is not just limited to the central government, as the governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts have also tendered their resignations. While it remains unclear whether any of these governors are implicated in ongoing corruption investigations, it is understood that former Kyiv oblast governor Oleksiy Kuleba will likely replace Tymoshenko as Deputy Head of the President’s Office. President Zelensky also confirmed that the National Security Council has now banned state officials from leaving the country under martial law, except for official trips. Various officials have reportedly been abusing the system – including former Deputy Prosecutor General Symonenko. Under current martial law conditions, all men aged between 18 and 60 are forbidden from leaving the country. Zelensky’s swift action and widespread personnel changes following the latest corruption revelations are clearly aimed at demonstrating to Western policy makers and investors that his administration operates a zero-tolerance approach to corruption and is committed to deep-rooted governance reform. This commitment will be vital to ensure long-term Western aid continues to bolster Ukraine’s war effort, particularly amid the ongoing main battle tank debate within NATO.

23 Jan. 23

SOUTHERN: On 21 January, the Russian Armed Forces reported that it had launched ‘offensive operations’ in the Zaporizhzhia region, amid claims its forces have already taken ‘more advantageous lines and positions’. According to Moscow, manoeuvre operations are concentrated on two principal objectives, Orikhiv and Huliapole. In recent weeks we have reported on the steady build-up of Russian (and Ukrainian) forces along the Zaporizhzhia line, with a Russian offensive towards Zaporizhzhia identified as a possibility last week. The Ukrainian General Staff on 22 January explicitly denied that Russian forces are ‘conducting active and large-scale efforts’, and claimed to have repelled all attacks in recent days. Almost all Russian claims of advances along this axis over the last few days remain unconfirmed.
SOUTHERN: It remains unclear how extensive this offensive will turn out to be, or whether it is designed to draw off Ukrainian forces before committing forces to a main offensive effort elsewhere in the east. Nevertheless, if it does materialise into a concerted effort, the Russian logic behind attacking the Zaporizhzhia line remains clear. A successful offensive on this axis will provide Russian forces with more breathing space in the south, amid concerns that Ukrainian forces will eventually attempt to unhinge Russian defences and sever the land corridor connecting Russia with occupied Crimea.
BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue offensive operations along the Bakhmut line, and have likely made incremental advances during the weekend of 20-22 January. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has claimed their forces took various positions west of Soledar, including Dvorichchia, two miles (3km) west of Soledar, while other Russian sources have also claimed wider progress, including around Sil’ and the unconfirmed capture of Krasnopolivka, 2 miles (4km) north of Soledar. While the Ukrainian General Staff has broadly reported that its forces have repelled attacks in this direction in recent days, the latest operational briefing this morning (23 January) notably separated Bakhmut from a list of ‘unsuccessful offensives’ conducted by Russian forces against Avdiivka, Lyman (Oskil-Kreminna) and Zaporizhzhia. Instead, Kyiv stated that Russian forces continue to attack Ukrainian positions on the Bakhmut axis. This could support Russian claims of incremental progress in recent days.
BAKHMUT: According to the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin on 23 January, Russian forces are transferring a ‘massive’ number of reserves to the Bakhmut axis. If true, this could well indicate a further intensification of operations is coming, which will increase the pressure on Ukrainian forces to hold the line.
CASUALTIES: It emerged on 20 January that the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is ‘alarmed’ by the high casualties the Ukrainian Armed Forces sustained during its defence of the Bakhmut line in recent weeks. According to leaked information published by Der Spiegel from secret briefings with the Bundestag, the BND estimates that Ukrainian forces are currently losing a ‘three-digit number of soldiers every day’. Meanwhile, the Sun newspaper reported on 20 January that according to US intelligence estimates, Russian forces have sustained 188,000 casualties in Ukraine, indicating a possible death toll of 47,000 killed in action – over three times the number killed during the nine-year Afghan-Soviet war.
CONSCRIPTION: On 22 January, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s military leadership has been tasked with ‘creating reserves’ to ‘restore forces’ after recent hostilities. While Zelensky stated that he could not disclose details of the Ukrainian mobilisation and conscription process, it is increasingly likely that Ukraine will need to expand conscription at some point in Q1/2 of 2023 to respond to Russia’s mobilisation, the coming spring offensives and the high casualties sustained over 11 months of war. Kyiv last extended the general mobilisation on 21 November 2022, which will remain in place for 90 days, until 19 February.
OFFENSIVES: Amid growing concerns over Ukrainian casualties, unnamed US officials cited by Reuters on 20 January reportedly stated that Washington is urging Ukraine to delay launching its spring counter-offensive until such a time as the latest tranche of Western weapons and training regimes have been completed. The reports came after US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley’s statement at the Ramstein summit on 20 January that it will ‘very, very difficult to military eject’ Russian forces from every inch of Ukraine this year – reinforcing our own assessment that the Russo-Ukrainian war is likely to protract well into the future.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Heavy fighting continues to push ever closer to Kreminna, but Ukrainian progress remains slow amid heavy reinforcements on both sides. On 22 January, Ukrainian governor of Luhansk oblast Serhiy Haidai stated that conditions in Luhansk remain ‘difficult’ and that progress for Ukrainian forces remains limited due to the deployment of ‘huge’ Russian reserves to the front. Haidai reiterated that there is an ‘incredible number’ of Russian forces on this axis, but that Ukrainian forces continue to move through heavily mined territory metre-by-metre.
SUMY: At around 0500hrs (local time), a small Russian reconnaissance force of six men attempted to cross the international border into Sumy oblast, north-eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces repelled the attack into Yunakiv hromada, but it could well have been a small probing mission designed to test the strength of Ukrainian border defences. As we have previously assessed, it remains unclear where and when Russia’s anticipated late-Winter, early Spring offensives will fall, and reopening a front north of Kharkiv remains a realistic possibility. However, Sumy oblast remains a less strategically significant target than regions further south, given the largely open agricultural landscape. It remains likely that this probing attack is part of wider efforts to keep the Ukrainians guessing where the offensive will take place. We will continue to monitor Russian military activity along Ukraine’s borders.
MOSCOW: Images began circulating on 19-20 January showing Pantsir-S1 air defence systems being installed on top of numerous key administrative buildings across Moscow, including Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Interior Ministry buildings. The Russian MoD reported on 21 January that elements of the Western Military District held a training exercise on repelling air attacks against the Moscow region, including S-300 systems, though it made no mention of the Pantsir-S1 systems, and the Kremlin has refused to comment. The move partly reflects the growth in Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, particularly through their use of UAVs as demonstrated by various strikes against the Engels-2 air base in Saratov, 370 miles (600km) from Ukrainian territory.
MOSCOW: However, the positioning of the Pantsir systems suggests they could also be designed to mitigate potential domestic threats and likely represent a contingency against a possible coup attempt. Three of the Pantsir systems are strategically placed at three points in central Moscow, providing a web of air defence coverage with the Kremlin at the centre. A further system has been installed less than 10km from Putin’s private residence in the Odintsovsky district of Moscow. While there are few indicators to suggest that President Vladimir Putin’s grip over the Russian state is anything but total, we will continue tracking various triggers, warnings and indicators that could suggest any destabilisation or challenge within the Kremlin. However, as we have previously assessed, accurately predicting coup attempts will inevitably be extremely difficult and we see no indication that the installation of the Pantsir systems is in response to any single or credible threat.
COMMAND: Reports emerged on 20 January that the commander of Russian airborne forces (VDV) Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky has been replaced by Lieutenant General Oleg Makarevich, the latest indication of likely political infighting undermining military effectiveness. While the appointment remains unconfirmed, it is highly likely that the replacement is linked to Valery Gerasimov’s ongoing reforms of the Russian command structure in Ukraine (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 12 January). Many Russian military bloggers have responded negatively to Makarevich’s appointment, given that Teplinsky was well regarded as an experienced VDV commander, while Makarevich has never served in the VDV and has not had any other command role during the war. Russian sources have claimed that Teplinsky was dismissed after he resisted MoD plans to use VDV forces in the highly attritional battles along the Bakhmut line. If this is true, Makarevich’s appointment likely reflects Gerasimov’s determination to assert his authority over all Russian forces in Ukraine, including the traditionally elite and semi-independent VDV. However, given Makarevich’s lack of experience, his appointment is unlikely to improve VDV performance.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

AID: The latest summit of the Ukraine Contact Groups at Ramstein on 20 January resulted in billionns of dollars pledged in support of Ukraine, but was overshadowed by Germany’s indecision on Leopard 2 re-exports. Berlin had indicated ahead of the summit that permitting re-export of the tanks would be conditional on US commitment to supplying tanks to Ukraine. Additionally, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius rejected criticism that Germany is withholding the delivery of tanks, insisting that there is ‘clearly no unified view’ among allies. While Pistorius did note that Germany was preparing to be ready to deliver tanks quickly if allies agreed on such a decision, it remains unclear whether any country other than German has significant reservations over the move.
AID: Today, 23 January, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that Warsaw would submit a request to Germany to allow the re-export of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Morawiecki’s comments came after Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock suggested on 22 January that the government would not block such a move, the first concrete indication that Berlin has shifted its stance on the subject. However, despite growing pressure from Germany’s Western allies, it remains unclear whether a decision has been agreed upon by the coalition government. Also on 22 January, Pistorius stated that a decision would be made soon, but that the government would not be rushed into making its decision. In a further effort to ramp up pressure on Germany, Morawiecki noted that if Germany continues to delay its decision, Warsaw would build a ‘smaller coalition’ with allies willing to send tanks to Ukraine, indicating potential future efforts to circumvent Berlin’s control over Leopard 2 re-export licenses.
WAGNER GROUP: On 20 January, the White House announced that the US will designate the Wagner Group as a ‘transnational criminal organisation’. John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, said the designation would open up ‘additional avenues’ for the US and Western allies to disrupt the group’s global activities. Kirby also presented satellite images which appeared to show Russian rail cars arriving in North Korea on 18 November 2022, before allegedly returning to Russia with a delivery of North Korean rockets and missiles intended for Wagner forces in Ukraine. We have previously reported on the growing military cooperation between Wagner Group (and Russia more generally) and North Korea, and sanctions and the need for vast quantities of munitions are increasing Moscow’s reliance on key partners, including Pyongyang and Tehran.
CORRUPTION: On 22 January, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal dismissed Vasyl Lozynskiy, the deputy minister for the development of communities, territories, and infrastructure on corruption charges. Lozynskiy was arrested on 21 January for charges that he took bribes to facilitate contracts to buy generators and equipment at inflated prices. The scandal comes amid wider accusations that the Ukrainian Defence Ministry has been buying food for soldiers at two to three times the current rates, implying more widespread war-related corruption. While the Defence Ministry denied such accusations, an internal audit has begun. These developments underline that corruption remains an enduring and major issue in Ukraine despite the war. In light of these latest corruption charges, presidential sources on 23 January indicated an upcoming reshuffle of the cabinet. However, amid the steady flow of international aid and the prospects for major reconstruction investment in the coming years, further revelations of corruption will increase concerns among Western backers that aid will remain vulnerable to corrupt practices, despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ostensible ‘zero-tolerance’ policy.

FORECAST

ESCALATION: As predicted last week, Russian officials have in the days following the latest Ramstein summit begun stepping up escalation threats and nuclear rhetoric. Most notably, Speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin warned on 22 January that the delivery of more advanced weapons systems to Ukraine could escalate the conflict ‘to a new level’ that would result in a ‘global catastrophe’. Volodin claimed that if future weapons are used to strike ‘civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories […] this will lead to retaliatory measures using more power weapons’. While he did not expressly mention nuclear weapons, the statement aligns with previous euphemistic statements by Russian officials during periods of heightened tensions. As we assessed last week, it remains in the Kremlin’s interests to ramp up the threat of escalation in the wake of Ramstein in a bid to maintain pressure on various European policy markers, particularly in Berlin (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 20 January). This rhetoric will likely form part of a wider strategic deterrence effort aimed at preventing Western momentum building towards even more advanced offensive capabilities – including not only main battle tanks, but also aircraft and long-range missile systems, such as Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). However, alongside escalatory rhetoric, the likelihood and threat of wider operations to support the Kremlin’s strategic deterrence operation is also increasing. Last week we assessed that threats to nuclear safety, including at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), were increasingly likely as part of this wider strategic deterrence campaign. This morning (23 January), Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed that the Ukrainian military is allegedly deploying ”Western ammunition’ on the ‘territories of nuclear power plants’, including HIMARS systems. Echoing allegations directed at Russian forces at the ZNPP, the SVR claim that Ukrainian forces are using Rivne and other nuclear plants as shields for their forces, and can blame Russian forces for any nuclear ‘tragedy’ that would result from ‘stray’ Ukrainian air defence missiles. While we maintain that a catastrophic nuclear incident remains highly unlikely, even in the eventuality of a missile striking a reactor, the threats are clear and it fits established patterns we have previously assessed during early escalatory phases of the conflict. Further threats to nuclear safety are therefore likely in the coming days and weeks as the Kremlin ramps up its strategic deterrence campaign in a bid to divide Western policy.

Ukraine: Evidence of war-related corruption underscores vulnerability of aid funding to malpractice. On 22 January, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal dismissed Vasyl Lozynskiy, the deputy minister for the development of communities, territories, and infrastructure, on corruption charges. Lozynskiy was arrested on 21 January on charges of taking bribes to facilitate contracts to buy generators and equipment at inflated prices. The scandal comes amid wider accusations that the Ukrainian defence ministry has been buying food for soldiers at two to three times the current rate. While the defence ministry denied the accusations, an internal audit has begun. Corruption remains an enduring and major issue in Ukraine, despite the war. In light of these latest corruption charges, presidential sources on 23 January indicated an upcoming reshuffle of the cabinet. However, amid the steady flow of international aid and the prospects for major reconstruction investment in the coming years, further revelations of corruption will increase concerns among Western backers that aid will remain vulnerable to corrupt practices, despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ostensible ‘zero-tolerance’ policy. (Source: Sibylline)

30 Jan 23. The Nato secretary-general has called on South Korea to supply military assistance to Ukraine, stressing Kyiv’s “urgent need” for more ammunition. Speaking in Seoul on Monday, Jens Stoltenberg thanked the conservative government of South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol for providing non-lethal aid to Ukraine but urged it to do more. South Korea has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but has declined to provide lethal assistance to Kyiv, citing a longstanding policy of not giving weapons to countries involved in an active conflict. “I urge the Republic of Korea to continue and to step up on the specific issue of military support,” Stoltenberg said at the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies in Seoul. “At the end of the day, it’s a decision for you to make, but I’ll say that several Nato allies who have had as a policy to never export weapons to countries in a conflict have changed that policy now,” he added. South Korea has joined sanctions against Moscow that were drawn up by western countries and Japan in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion last year. In March, Russia designated South Korea as an “unfriendly country”. But western officials have expressed frustration in private with what they perceive as South Korean foot-dragging on efforts to isolate Moscow. Seoul has not joined a western-led price cap on purchases of Russian oil and has not made any commitment to phase out use of Russian hydrocarbons. Since the invasion, South Korean defence companies have sealed a series of bumper arms export deals with Nato member Poland worth more than $12bn. Seoul’s willingness to sell tanks, howitzers, light attack aircraft, ammunition and multiple rocket launchers to Warsaw has raised hopes that it could be moving towards providing lethal aid to Kyiv. But a western military official told the Financial Times that arms sales to Nato countries should not be conflated with a willingness to offer military support to Ukraine. “That was a defence export deal, not a political statement,” said the official. Western countries have set up an International Fund for Ukraine to supply military equipment and other support to Kyiv. The fund is designed to allow states to back the Ukrainian war effort without directly supplying arms, but South Korea has not made a contribution. “Ideally we want countries to donate, not to sell,” the western military official said. “Anyone can sell things. The question is how much you are willing to contribute.” The official confirmed that Nato countries were most keen to secure donations of artillery ammunition and air defence munitions, citing the compatibility of South Korean-produced ammunition with equipment already given by Nato members. Stoltenberg is visiting South Korea and Japan this week as the transatlantic defence alliance seeks to forge closer ties with Asian democracies. The leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand attended the Nato summit last year in Madrid, where they agreed to co-operate on cyber defence and maritime security. Yang Uk, a defence specialist at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said the South Korean government’s reluctance may also be related to its anxiety about Russia deepening military links with North Korea. (Source: FT.com)

29 Jan 23. Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, has warned against a bidding war among western allies over military aid to Ukraine, as he firmly ruled out sending fighter jets and ground troops to Kyiv. In an interview with the German newspaper Tagesspiegel, Scholz said that “no one is even asking” about sending combat aircraft. “The fact we’ve only just made a decision [on sending tanks] and already the next debate is firing up in Germany, that just seems frivolous, and undermines people’s trust in government decisions,” he said. “I can only advise against entering a bidding war over weapons systems.” Scholz was speaking just days after announcing that Germany would be supplying Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, and allowing other European states to send their stocks of the German-made weapons system too, in a major ramping-up of western military support for Kyiv. Shortly afterwards, the US pledged to give a number of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, in a move that was condemned by the Kremlin.

Olaf Scholz has defended his decision to maintain phone contact with Russian president Vladimir Putin © David Hecker/Getty Images But Scholz is already facing calls to do more. Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister and former ambassador to Berlin, called for the creation of a “fighter jet coalition” that could provide Ukraine with US F-16s and F-35s, Eurofighters, Tornados, French Rafales and Swedish Gripen jets. On Saturday he went even further, urging the Bundeswehr to give Ukraine one of its HDW Class 212A submarines, manufactured by German firm ThyssenKrupp. “Then we’ll kick [the Russian] fleet out of the Black Sea,” he tweeted. He acknowledged that this latest “creative idea” might cause a “new shit storm”. But Melnyk is not alone, with some more hawkish EU states discussing sending fighter aircraft to Ukraine. However, other capitals are cautioning against such a move in the short-to medium term, given the need to focus on ensuring the smooth delivery of tanks. Recommended The Big Read Will tanks set up Ukraine for a spring offensive? “I understand that Ukrainians always want the next step . . . but at this moment it is going to be very difficult,” said a person involved in the discussions “Now we are agreed on [Leopards]. Let’s do it. And as quick as possible.” “It’s not so easy to bring Leopards to the battlefield . . . to train the crews, to equip the tanks, and to provide the logistics and the maintenance,” the person added. “It is a very complex logistical operation.” That point was echoed by Scholz in his Tagesspiegel interview. “It’s important to me now that all those who have announced they want to send tanks to Ukraine actually do so,” he said. In his Sunday interview, Scholz defended his decision to maintain phone contact with Russian president Vladimir Putin, with the last phone conversation taking place at the start of December. “And I will continue to phone Putin — because we have to keep talking to each other,” he said. He said the tone of the conversations was “not impolite, but our perspectives are of course completely different”. (Source: FT.com)

28 Jan 23. Ukraine in talks with allies about getting long-range missiles.

– Expedited talks are under way among Kyiv and its allies about Ukraine’s requests for long-range missiles that it says are needed to prevent Russia from destroying Ukrainian cities, a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday.

Ukraine has won promises of Western battle tanks and is seeking fighter jets to push back against Russian and pro-Moscow forces, which are slowly advancing along part of the front line.

“To drastically reduce the Russian army’s key weapon – the artillery they use today on the front lines – we need missiles that will destroy their depots,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Ukraine’s Freedom television network. He said on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula there were more than 100 artillery warehouses.

“Therefore, firstly, negotiations are already under way. Secondly, negotiations are proceeding at an accelerated pace,” he said without giving details.

Zelenskiy, speaking separately, said Ukraine wanted to preempt Russian attacks on Ukrainian urban areas and civilians.

“Ukraine needs long-range missiles … to deprive the occupier of the opportunity to place its missile launchers somewhere far from the front line and destroy Ukrainian cities,” he said in an evening video address.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine needed the U.S.-made ATACMS missile, which has a range of 185 miles (297km). Washington has so far declined to provide the weapon.

Earlier in the day, the Ukrainian air force denied a newspaper report that it intended to get 24 fighter jets from allies, saying talks were continuing, Ukraine’s Babel online outlet said.

Spain’s El Pais newspaper, citing Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuri Ihnat, said Ukraine initially wanted two squadrons of 12 planes each, preferably Lockheed Martin F-16 jets.

But in a statement to Babel, Ihnat said his comments to a media briefing on Friday had been misinterpreted.

“Ukraine is only at the stage of negotiations regarding aircraft. Aircraft models and their number are currently being determined,” he said.

Ihnat told the Friday briefing that F-16s might be the best option for a multi-role fighter to replace the country’s current fleet of ageing Soviet-era warplanes.

He also told Ukrainian national television that allied nations did not like public speculation about jets, Interfax Ukraine news agency said.

Deputy White House national security adviser Jon Finer on Thursday said United States would be discussing the idea of supplying jets “very carefully” with Kyiv and its allies.

Germany’s defence minister this week ruled out the idea of sending jets to Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)

30 Jan 23. Ukraine calls for faster weapons supplies as Russia presses eastern offensive.

Summary

Three killed in Russian strikes on Kherson – governor
Russian forces again shell Vuhledar in the east
Zelenskiy calls on allies to speed up arms deliveries
Zelenskiy presses Macron to ban Russia from Paris Games

KYIV, Ukraine, Jan 30 (Reuters) – Russian missile strikes killed three people in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson while fighting raged in the eastern Donetsk region where Russia again shelled the key town of Vuhledar, Ukrainian officials said.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine was facing a difficult situation in Donetsk and needed faster weapons supplies and new types of weaponry, just days after allies agreed to provide Kyiv with heavy battle tanks.

“The situation is very tough. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other sectors in Donetsk region – there are constant Russian attacks,” Zelenskiy said in a video address late on Sunday.

“Russia wants the war to drag on and exhaust our forces. So we have to make time our weapon. We have to speed up events, speed up supplies and open up new weapons options for Ukraine.”

Three people were killed and six injured on Sunday by Russian strikes on Kherson that damaged a hospital and a school, the regional administration said.

Russian troops had occupied Kherson shortly after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and held the city until Ukrainian forces recaptured it in November. Since its liberation, the city has regularly been shelled from Russian positions across the Dnipro river.

Later on Sunday a missile struck an apartment building in the northeastern town of Kharkiv, killing an elderly woman, regional Governor Oleh Synehubov said.

A Reuters picture from the scene showed fire engulfing part of a residential building in the country’s second most-populous city.

Russia on Saturday accused the Ukrainian military of deliberately striking a hospital in a Russian-held area of eastern Ukraine, killing 14 people. There was no response to the allegations from Ukraine.

Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement on Monday that Ukrainian defenders had repelled a Russian attack in Bakhmut, the focus of Moscow’s offensive in the eastern Donetsk region, and in several other cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

A Ukrainian military statement issued on the previous evening had noted intensified fighting in Vuhledar, southwest of Bakhmut, in recent days.

Denis Pushilin, the administrator of Russian-controlled parts of Donetsk, said on Monday that his forces had gained a foothold in Vuhledar, Russia’s TASS news agency reported.

Ukrainian military analyst and colonel, Mykola Salamakha, told Ukrainian Radio NV that Russian troops were mounting waves of attacks on Vuhledar.

“From this location we control practically the entire rail system used by the Russians for logistics … The town is on an upland and an extremely strong defensive hub has been created there,” he said.

“This is a repetition of the situation in Bakhmut – one wave of Russian troops after another crushed by the Ukrainian armed forces.”

Reuters was unable to verify the battlefield reports.

ARMS SUPPLIES

Sunday’s civilian casualties came three days after at least 11 people were killed in missile strikes which were seen in Kyiv as the Kremlin’s response to pledges from Ukraine’s allies to supply battle tanks.

After weeks of wrangling, Germany and the United States last week said they would send Ukraine dozens of tanks to help push back Russian forces, opening the way for other countries to follow suit.

While a total of 321 heavy tanks had been promised to Ukraine by several countries, according to Kyiv’s ambassador to France, they could take months to appear on the battlefield.

Ukraine is keen to speed up the delivery of heavy weapons as both sides in the war are expected to launch spring offensives in the coming weeks.

Talks were also under way between Kyiv and its allies about Ukraine’s requests for long-range missiles, a top aide to Zelenskiy said on Saturday. Ukraine has also asked for U.S. F16 fighter jets.

German arms-maker Rheinmetall is ready to greatly boost the output of tank and artillery munitions to satisfy demand in Ukraine and the West, and may start producing HIMARS multiple rocket launchers in Germany, CEO Armin Papperger told Reuters.

HIMARS systems are currently made in the United States and have been used to devastating effect by the Ukrainian military.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg visited South Korea, a U.S. ally and major arms exporter, on Monday and urged Seoul to increase military support to Ukraine.

Russia’s RIA news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Monday that as the United States had decided to supply tanks to Ukraine, it made no sense for Russia to talk to Kyiv or its Western “puppet masters”.

On Sunday however a Kremlin spokesperson told RIA Russian President Vladimir Putin was open to contacts with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Scholz was quoted by the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel on Sunday as saying, “I will also speak to Putin again – because it is necessary to speak”.

“The onus is on Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine to end this horrendous, senseless war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives already,” he added.

Russia says it launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine to fend off a hostile West and “denazify” the country. Ukraine and its allies say the invasion was an unprovoked act of aggression.

Zelenskiy said he had sent a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron as part of his campaign to keep Russian athletes out of the Paris Olympic Games. He said that allowing Russia to compete at the 2024 Paris Games would be tantamount to showing that “terror is somehow acceptable”. (Source: Reuters)

27 Jan 23. Ukraine sets up drone assault units. Ukraine said on Friday it was setting up drone assault companies within its armed forces that will be equipped with Starlink satellite communications, as it presses ahead with an idea to build up an “army of drones”.

Commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi signed off on the creation of the units in a project that will involve several ministries and agencies, the General Staff said.

“The most professional servicemen” have already been chosen to lead the companies, each of which will receive drones and ammunition, Starlink terminals and other equipment, it said on Facebook.

“We are doing everything to provide soldiers with modern technologies,” it said.

Starlink is a satellite internet system operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, and widely used both by civilians and the military in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s defence minister told Reuters last month that he regarded drones as the future of modern warfare.

Unmanned aircraft have played a crucial role on both sides since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

Moscow has used hundreds of Iranian-made “suicide drones” to attack Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian forces use drones to drop small explosives on Russian forces and surveil their movements.

The war, now in its twelfth month, has slowed in recent weeks to an attritional battle with few territorial gains for either side. (Source: Reuters)

27 Jan 23. Ukraine says pilots would need six months for F-16 combat training. Ukraine said on Friday it would take its pilots about half a year to train for combat in Western fighter jets such as U.S. F-16s, as Kyiv steps up its campaign to secure fourth-generation warplanes in the wake of Russia’s invasion last February.

Ukraine got a huge boost this week when Germany and the United States announced plans to provide heavy tanks to Kyiv, which is now hoping the West will also provide long-range missiles and fighter jets.

Western military support has been vital for Kyiv and has rapidly evolved. Before the invasion, even the idea of supplying lethal aid to Ukraine was highly controversial, but Western supplies have since shattered taboo after taboo.

Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat said F-16s may be the best option for a multi-role fighter to replace the country’s current fleet of warplanes, which are older than modern Ukraine itself. He said Kyiv was using four types of Soviet-era planes.

“The pilots are saying it is not a problem to fly the F-16, they could learn it within several weeks. To fight with these planes is a very different thing, to use all types of weapons,” Ihnat told a news briefing.

“Pilots say they could master it in about half a year,” he said.

Ukraine uses its warplanes for intercept missions and to attack Russian positions.

In the United States, Deputy White House national security adviser Jon Finer told MSNBC on Thursday that the United States would be discussing the idea of supplying fighter jets “very carefully” with Kyiv and its allies.

Ihnat said in addition to the pilots, aviation engineers and other specialists would need training. Ukraine has already started work in different regions to create airfield infrastructure for Western planes, he said.

Oleksiy Danylov, the secretary of the National Defense and Security Council, posted a video on Twitter of a Western fighter jet taking off and wrote “Soon in Ukraine”.(Source: Reuters)

27 Jan 23. Germany’s defence fund not enough, sending fighter jets ‘ruled out’: defence minister. Germany’s 100 billion euro ($108 billion) special defence fund is no longer enough to cover its needs, the new Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung published on Friday. Pistorius, who took office last week after his predecessor resigned, said Germany would also need to raise its annual regular defence spending from the current level of around 50 billion euros.

Germany also needs to replenish its military hardware stocks, including replacements for the 14 Leopard tanks that Berlin agreed to send to Ukraine to help repel Russia’s invasion, the new defence chief said.

Germany’s decision to suspend compulsory military service in 2011 was a mistake, he added, saying he was hesitant to place a burden upon young generations but was open to discussing a new model to strengthen the relationship between citizens and the state.

Asked whether Germany would sent fighter jets to Ukraine, the next request from Kyiv after Germany approved earlier this week the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks, Pistorius said this was “ruled out”.

“Fighter aircrafts are much more complex systems than main battle tanks and have a completely different range and firepower. We would be venture into dimensions that I would currently warn against,” Pistorius said in the interview. ($1 = 0.9223 euros) (Source: Reuters)

28 Jan 23. North Korea slams United States for pledging tanks to Ukraine. North Korea on Saturday denounced U.S. pledges of battle tanks to Ukraine, claiming Washington was “further crossing the red line” to win hegemony by proxy war, state media KCNA reported.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, made the remarks in a statement carried by KCNA, saying that North Korea will “stand in the same trench” as Russia against the United States.

The United States said this week it would supply Ukraine with 31 of its most advanced battle tanks after Germany made a similar announcement. This scrapped a taboo in Western support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s invasion by pledging arms that have a mainly offensive purpose.

“I express serious concern over the U.S. escalating the war situation by providing Ukraine with military hardware for ground offensive,” Kim Yo Jong said in the statement.

The United States and Western countries “have neither right nor justification to slander sovereign states’ exercise of the right to self-defence.”

Nuclear-armed North Korea launched an unprecedented number of missiles last year, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. U.S. and South Korean officials have also warned the North could be preparing for its first test of a nuclear device since 2017. (Source: Reuters)

26 Jan 23. Whispers about cluster munitions for Ukraine are aimed at Berlin. Following a protracted debate over battle tank donations for Ukraine that tested the unity of Kyiv’s allies, cluster munitions appear in position to fire up the next controversy.

That’s at least the plan of one European government, which wants the story out there without appearing in it. An unnamed official from said country told reporters Wednesday a request was sent to Berlin this week to re-export an unnamed number of an unnamed type of 155mm artillery cluster munitions to the war-torn country.

Yes, that’s a lot of unnamed moving parts. And officials from the purported requesting country declined to bring clarity to the matter by revealing which type of munitions they seek to give to Ukraine or how many.

Estonian news portal ERR.ee reported on Thursday that it was leaders in Tallinn who want to give Ukraine cluster munitions, pending Germany’s approval. The article says Estonian has “thousands” of such artillery rounds.

The development is news to the German defense ministry, at least, where a spokesperson told Defense News on Thursday no such request had reached the docket there.

What is known, however, is Ukrainian officials have said they want the weapons to defend against Russian infantry waves storming their positions.

Cluster munitions are banned under a UN treaty for their indiscriminate targeting and the possibility of their unexploded submunitions hurting civilians long after their use.

Russia, which is not a signatory to the treaty, used cluster munitions in attacks against the previously occupied city of Kherson in November, after losing the city to Ukrainian forces again, according to Human Rights Watch. The rounds killed and maimed Ukrainian civilians, the group said.

“Residents of Kherson survived eight months of Russian occupation, and are finally free from fear of torture, only to be subjected to new indiscriminate attacks, apparently including cluster munitions,” Belkis Wille, the group’s associate crisis and conflict director, wrote in a December 2022 article.

Germany is a signatory to the treaty that bans cluster munitions. The United States is not, but military scientists here have come up with novel ways to avoid using them since the treaty entered into force, including by way of purely kinetic, versus explosive, projectiles.

Thomas Wiegold, a military expert and journalist based in Berlin, told Defense News the Bundeswehr has long eliminated its arsenal of cluster munitions, which means the likely focus is on a series of Rheinmetall-made rounds Germany may have exported to allies before the 2010 ban took effect.

News agency AFP first ran a story about the purported push for cluster munitions late Wednesday, citing the European official as arguing the West should be more “forward-leaning” in supporting Ukraine.

“Russians have been using all sorts of weapons that are 100 times more terrible than cluster munitions,” the official said.

The official told reporters earlier any request for Germany to authorize the re-export of old, German-made cluster munitions was expected to be controversial and would result in Berlin facing similar international pressure as it did over Leopard 2 tanks. (Source: Defense News)

26 Jan 23. France, Italy close to deal on supplying air defence system to Ukraine -sources. France and Italy are close to finalising the technical details to supply an SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine, two diplomatic sources said on Thursday, although it was unclear how quickly a final decision would come.

Russia sent Ukrainian civilians racing for cover with a rush-hour missile barrage on Thursday, killing at least one person, the day after Kyiv secured Western pledges of dozens of modern battlefield tanks to try to push back the Russian invasion.

Kyiv has asked its Western allies for more air defence systems and specifically requested the SAMP/T, known as Mamba, in November.

France’s Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu will travel to Italy on Friday to meet his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto, with both sides wanting to push ahead with the SAMP/T talks.

“We are finalising it with the Italians. It’s not very far off,” said a French diplomatic source.

The system, a joint Franco-Italian consortium can track dozens of targets and intercept 10 at once and is the only European-made system that can intercept ballistic missiles.

“A political decision was made. It’s now just finalising the technical details because it’s a complicated system,” said a second diplomat, adding that the expectation was that French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would make the decision official.

A third official said technical talks were ongoing.

Paris has previously supplied Mistral shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine and the Crotale short-range anti-air missiles, which are used to intercept low-flying missiles and aircraft. (Source: Reuters)

27 Jan 23. Cambodia trains Ukrainian deminers. Fifteen mine clearance personnel from Ukraine have successfully completed a week-long training stint in Cambodia, the Associated Press (AP) reported on 20 January.

AP quoted Ukrainian deminer Stanislav as saying that 64 deminers had been injured and 13 killed in the line of duty in Ukraine to date, noting that the main challenge for Ukrainian deminers was not only the scale of mine clearing operations, but also the necessity to ensure all mines are removed before displaced citizens can return to villages and farms.

“This is a precondition of the recovery,” said Kulykiusky.

According to Landmine Monitor’s latest 2022 report, Cambodia and Ukraine listed among the nine countries with “massive” mine contamination, meaning they had more than 100 km2 of uncleared minefields. Cambodia is still contaminated with forgotten land mines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) from three decades of war and internal conflicts that concluded in 1998, while the problem in Ukraine is a new one since the Russian invasion commenced in 2022.

Cambodia’s leading agency for landmine and UXO disposal, the Cambodian Mine Action Centre (CMAC), earlier reported that it had disposed 499,069 landmines (487,203 anti-personnel, 9,940 anti-tank and 1,926 improvised mines) and 1,967,875 UXO items between 1992 and 2014.

As a result, Cambodian deminers are among the world’s most experienced, and several thousand have been deployed the past decade under United Nations auspices to assist demining operations in Africa and the Middle East.

Despite these impressive figures, work for CMAC looks set to continue for the foreseeable future, given that approximately six million landmines are believed to have been laid during the civil war.

In Southeast Asia, hundreds of people continue to be maimed or killed each year by mines and UXO. At least six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries – Burma, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam – are forced to deal with the consequences of past indiscriminate military and insurgent use of these weapons.

For example, the United States dropped over two million tonnes of munitions on Laos between 1964 and 1973 to cut off North Vietnamese supply lines through its shared border with South Vietnam, giving it the unfortunate distinction of being the most heavily bombed country in the world. It is believed that as much as a third of these weapons failed to detonate, leaving its people still vulnerable today. (Source: AMR)

27 Jan 23. Canada confirms donation of four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The MBTs are being provided in response to Ukraine’s continuous requests for more tanks. The Canadian Ministry of National Defence (MND) has announced it will donate a total of four Leopard 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine. The tanks, along with spare parts and ammunition, will be delivered from the Canadian Armed Forces’ inventory.

Additionally, Canada will deploy military personnel to provide the associated training to Ukrainian soldiers in a third country.

The MND confirmed that Leopard 2 MBTs are being provided in response to Ukraine’s repeated requests for tanks.

The Norwegian Government has also confirmed its intents to contribute to Ukraine’s request for more tanks. The support may also include logistical-support, spare parts, and training.

Norway, however, has not revealed any further details, claiming that the announced contribution will be decided after ‘close dialogue’ with the country’s armed forces.

The contribution will be provided as a ‘larger multi-year package’.

Norwegian Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said: “We are weighing and considering our own needs and preparedness. At this time, it is the right thing to do to take some our own equipment in order to support Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, the Norwegian government has assured that it will deploy armed forces personnel to train the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ medical specialist, junior officers, and snipers.

This training is scheduled to be held in Norway, in multiple sessions throughout the year, starting in summer.

Norway will also continue to train Ukrainian troops through the UK-led Operation Interflex in 2023 and is planning to increase number of Norwegian personnel deployed for this effort.

Furthermore, the Latvian Ministry of Defence has revealed that the country is preparing to deliver new a tranche of military support for Ukraine. It will bring Latvia’s support for Ukraine to €370m, which is equal to 1% of country’s gross domestic product. (Source: army-technology.com)

25 Jan 23. Morocco supports Ukraine with tank sale. Morocco will become the first African nation to offer military support to Ukraine with the sale of T-72 tanks. Under the deal, the United States and Netherlands will buy 90 T-72B main battle tanks from Morocco with an option to add 30 tanks to the sale in 2023, according to Nigerian news website moneycentral.com.ng. The tanks will be sent to Ukraine after they are modernized by Czechoslovakian company Excalibur Army. More than 20 tanks were to be shipped by late December. Morocco also is sending spare tank parts to Ukraine.

The move is being viewed as a change in stance for Morocco, which abstained from a United Nations vote to condemn the Russian invasion in March 2022. Of the 54 African countries represented in the UN, 28 voted in favor of the resolution.

Calling the sale a “distinctive blow” to Russia’s persuasion efforts in Africa, The New Africa Channel said “Russia has made significant investments in efforts to maintain Africa’s neutrality and perhaps tilt its affinity towards the Kremlin.” These included opening five cultural centers known as “Russia Houses” and a continentwide propaganda campaign, The New Africa Channel reported.

The tanks modernized by Excalibur Army are equipped with thermal imagers, night vision systems and new armor. They also are fitted with explosive-reactive armor kits mounted on the front, sides and roof.

Ukraine has sought Moroccan tanks and spare parts to augment its supply of tanks since 2015.

Although it is unclear whether more African nations will support Ukraine as it seeks to defend itself from Russian attacks, Ukraine has tried to rally support on the continent.

In late December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that new embassies would be opened in Africa in early 2023. The first one is expected to open in Ghana.

“We are restarting relations with dozens of African countries,” Zelenskyy said in a report by German news service Deutsche Welle. “Next year we must strengthen this. Ten states have already been identified where new Ukrainian embassies in Africa will be opened.”

In October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba toured Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal in a bid to deepen diplomatic ties. It was the Ukrainian government’s first diplomatic trip to the continent in decades.

During a virtual news briefing, Kuleba accused Russia of triggering a global crisis that caused food shortages across the continent.

“Each Russian rocket is not only hitting Ukrainians, it also harms the quality of life for Africans,” Kuleba said. He also noted that Ukraine had shipped 830 000 tons of grain to Africa since July.

Although Kuleba’s trip was interrupted by heavy Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine, observers believe the visit helped build solidarity with African governments and countered some of Russia’s propaganda. Kuleba plans to visit Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania in the first quarter of 2023.

“We must strengthen our cooperation,” Kuleba said during a visit with Senegalese Foreign Minister Aïssata Tall Sall.“Our future depends on the relationships we build and what happens every day.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)

26 Jan 23. Ukraine Orders Additional 105 Surveillance Drones from Quantum-Systems. Quantum-Systems GmbH, an aerial intelligence company that provides multi-sensor data collection drones to government agencies and commercial customers, announced that it will deliver 105 additional long-endurance reconnaissance drones type Vector in military support of Ukraine’s armed forces, funded by the German Government.

Founded in 2015, Quantum-Systems is at the forefront of UAS development. Its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) systems boast industry-leading endurance, ease of operation, and reliability, exceeding the performance of conventional UAS platforms.

Supporting Ukraine with real-time aerial intelligence

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has placed a second batch order of Vector systems, following an earlier order of 33 UAS of the same model in August 2022. Since then, the system was able to demonstrate it delivers unprecedented performance under the most challenging conditions. Vector has been extensively used and intensively tested on the Ukrainian battlefield, where it has proven to be an asset for military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations. Its robust and rugged design makes it well-suited for operation in harsh environments and extreme weather conditions.

Quantum-Systems is pleased to announce that with the latest software update, Vector is also able to operate in GNSS-denied scenarios. The direct and immediate feedback received from the operators in the Ukrainian battlefield, as well as Quantum-Systems’ commitment to enhance security capabilities through technological advancements, accelerated development processes. New findings have been directly incorporated into the advanced technology of Vector. A fact which may have been decisive for the MOD’s decision.

Onsite training and support

To further provide support to the Ukrainian forces, Quantum-Systems also announces the opening of a Training and Support Facility in Ukraine. This facility will provide training for operators on the use and maintenance of the Vector™ system and will be the local hub for procuring spare parts and repair services.

“We are honoured to be able to help Ukraine with the defense of their country and we are committed to continuing to provide the highest quality systems to their forces. Our belief in democratic values and the challenges faced by the Ukrainian soldiers daily, only motivate us even more so and speed up our development processes. Being able to further equip Vector with combat proven features and capabilities in a short period of time is crucial for us as a manufacturer and the operators of our systems, from which all of our Vector customers will profit”, said Florian Seibel, CEO of Quantum-Systems.

Growing Vector capabilities

Vector integrates dual Electro-Optical (EO) and Infra-Red (IR) gimbaled sensors, enabling missions both day and night. It streams real-time live video to multiple Ground Control Stations via Mesh IP encrypted data links and is equipped with advanced AI capabilities onboard. The data assessment and image processing of Vector is supported by automatic detection, identification, and tracking algorithms, which provide on-the-ground tactical units with mission-critical data.

With a flight time of 120 minutes, Vector is suited for applications such as ISR for enhanced live situational awareness, area mapping, battle damage assessment, Search & Rescue (SAR), and convoy and VIP protection. (Source: UAS VISION)

26 Jan 23. Lockheed Martin has said it stands ready to meet demand for its F-16 aircraft as some of Ukraine’s closest European allies revive efforts to provide fighter jets to Kyiv. The US-German decision to send tanks to Ukraine has reignited discussions, which European defence officials cautioned were at an early stage. Frank St. John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, the largest US defence contractor, told the FT that there was “a lot of conversation about third party transfer of F-16s” — whereby countries would re-export their US jets to Ukraine to defend its airspace. Lockheed is not directly involved in talks regarding the potential delivery of military aircraft to Kyiv. However, St. John said the company was “going to be ramping production on F-16s in Greenville [South Carolina] to get to the place where we will be able to backfill pretty capably any countries that choose to do third party transfers to help with the current conflict”. The White House has rebuffed Ukrainian appeals for modern fighter jets such as the F-16 out of fear they could be used to strike Russian territory. The US government must approve sales, or transfers to third countries, of American-made fighter jets, which means European countries would need political support from the Biden administration. “Along with our international allies and partners, we are in regular communication with the Ukrainians on their needs and requests,” a US defence official said. “At this time, we have nothing to announce regarding F-16s.” German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out sending jets to Ukraine. “I made clear very early on that we wouldn’t be sending combat aircraft and I’ll say that again here,” he said on Wednesday.

Germany does not fly F-16 jets. EU member states re-exporting F-16s directly to Ukraine is one of a series of options, European officials said, pointing out that the US-made jets could also be sent by western states to former Warsaw Pact countries that could then send their Soviet-designed aircraft to Kyiv. Recommended Rachman Review podcast26 min listen The global battle against impunity At the start of the war, Warsaw offered to send its Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets to the Ukrainian air forces, with one iteration of the proposal involving the US sending F-16s to replenish the Polish air force. The initiative was abandoned in March, after Washington deemed it too escalatory. Dutch foreign minister Wopke Hoekstra said last week that the Netherlands would consider any requests to send F-16s with “an open mind” and that there were “no taboos” on military support. The Netherlands has around 40 F-16s and is in the process of phasing them out through the purchase of more advanced F-35s. In addition to the Netherlands, seven other European Nato countries fly F-16s, including Poland, Norway and Romania. Several of Lockheed’s weapons systems have been playing key roles on the Ukrainian battlefield, including the high-mobility artillery rocket system (Himars), guided multiple launch rocket system (Gmlrs), Javelin missiles and the more recently provided Patriot missile defence system, including its accompanying PAC-3 missiles. The company has invested in their production ahead of contracts to replenish stockpiles from the US government that it is confident will come. (Source: FT.com)

25 Jan 23. Speed, number of tanks supplied is vital to Ukraine -Zelenskiy. The key to providing tanks for Ukraine’s defence against Russia was speed and sufficient numbers, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy also said he had spoken to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and called for supplies of long-range missiles and aircraft to add to the commitments by the United States and Germany to provide advanced battle tanks.

“The key now is speed and volumes. Speed in training our forces, speed in supplying tanks to Ukraine. The numbers in tank support,” Zelenskiy said.

“We must form such a tank force, such a freedom force that after it strikes, tyranny will never again rise up.”

Russia, which invaded its Western-leaning neighbour Ukraine 11 months ago in what it called a “special military operation” to protect Russian security, condemned the decision on tanks as a dangerous provocation.

Ukraine and its Western allies describe Moscow’s war as an imperial-style land grab.

Zelenskiy referred to his conversation with Stoltenberg in saying that “progress must be made in other aspects of our defence cooperation”, namely long-range missiles, artillery and aircraft for Ukraine.

“This is a dream. And it’s a task. An important task for all of us,” Zelenskiy said. (Source: Reuters)

25 Jan 23. Russia slams German tank decision as escalation of conflict, betrayal of history.

Summary

Russian envoy: German decision ‘extremely dangerous’
Envoy evokes Nazi Germany’s invasion of Soviet Union
Putin makes no comment on tanks during university visit

Russia reacted with fury on Wednesday to Germany’s decision to approve the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, saying Berlin was abandoning its “historical responsibility to Russia” arising from Nazi crimes in World War Two.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a Telegram post that the move was confirmation of Germany’s involvement in “a war planned in advance” against Russia.

The Russian embassy in Berlin said the decision – which paves the way for other NATO members also to send German-made tanks – would escalate the 11-month conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow casts increasingly as a perilous face-off between Russia and the U.S.-led alliance.

“This extremely dangerous decision takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation,” Ambassador Sergei Nechayev said. He added it would cause “irreparable damage to the already deplorable state of Russian-German relations”.

There was no immediate reaction from President Vladimir Putin, who shortly after the announcement took part in a long televised meeting with students but referred only briefly to the “complicated” security situation facing Russia.

Kyiv and its Western allies say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, launched on Feb. 24 last year, amounts to an unprovoked war of aggression aimed at seizing territory. Moscow says the West is using Ukraine to weaken Russia’s own security.

‘HISTORICAL RESPONSIBILITY’

Germany’s decision on tanks followed weeks of agonising by the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, prompted by concerns about escalating the war and provoking Russia.

More than 80 years after their country invaded Soviet Russia and Ukraine in World War Two, some Germans recoil at the idea of sending tanks into a new conflagration there, out of a sense of historic guilt that the Russian embassy statement directly tapped into.

“Berlin’s choice means the final refusal of the Federal Republic of Germany to recognize its historical responsibility to our people for the terrible, timeless crimes of Nazism during the Great Patriotic War, and the consigning to oblivion of the difficult path of post-war reconciliation between Russians and Germans,” Nechayev said.

“With the approval of the leadership of Germany, battle tanks with German crosses will again be sent to the ‘eastern front’, which will inevitably lead to the deaths of not only Russian soldiers, but also the civilian population.”

Kyiv has for months asked for Western tanks that it says it desperately needs to give its forces the firepower and mobility to break through Russian defensive lines and recapture occupied territory in the east and south.

Russia has repeatedly said foreign tanks will “burn” in Ukraine. It says they will only extend the war and prolong Ukrainian suffering, and that the West is “deluded” to think otherwise. (Source: Reuters)

25 Jan 23. Germany’s Leopard tank move puts spotlight on its maker: Rheinmetall. Armin Papperger is on a roll. On Tuesday, the chief executive of Germany defence champion Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) nudged up the group’s mid-term sales outlook in anticipation of a windfall from higher defence spending due to the war in Ukraine.

A day later, Germany’s long-awaited decision to send heavy Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which Rheinmetall produces jointly with peer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, pushed shares in the nearly 134-year old firm to a record high.

This has given the maker of tanks, ammunition and other war equipment a valuation of around 10bn euros ($11bn), an increase of two and a half times over the past year and potentially promoting it to Germany’s blue-chip DAX (.GDAXI) index.

For Papperger, 59, who has led the company for the past decade, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only brightened the group’s business prospects but also led to a change in perception in a nation traditionally critical of Germany’s role in military conflicts.

“In former times we were insulted and sometimes threatened. Today people say and write to me: ‘Thank God you’re around’,” Papperger, an avid hunter who keeps miniature models of tanks in his office, told German magazine Stern this week.

Part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proclaimed “Zeitenwende” – a shift towards more assertive foreign policy after decades of military attrition – Wednesday’s move follows mounting pressure to send better fighting equipment to Kyiv.

“I think about what weapons can do. But I also think about what can happen when you don’t have weapons. You can see that right now in Ukraine,” Papperger, a trained engineer who joined Rheinmetall in 1990, said.

Founded in 1889 to provide ammunition to the then German Empire, Rheinmetall continued to be a key supplier of weaponry to Germany’s military during both World War One and Two, during which the company was temporarily nationalised.

‘PRICED IN’

Today, the company, which is also a key supplier to the automotive sector, employs more than 25,000 worldwide and apart from the Leopard battle tank also makes the Puma and Marder infantry fighting vehicles as well as several types of ammunition.

Rheinmetall’s direct deliveries to Ukraine so far included air defence systems used to combat drones, ammunition, military trucks as well as a field hospital.

The group has said it can deliver a total of 139 Leopard tanks – 51 of the model 2 and 88 of the older model 1 – to Ukraine. Rheinmetall has said that 29 of the Leopard 2A4 tanks could already be delivered by April or May.

Analysts at Stifel Equity Research estimate Leopard deliveries could bring in between 300m euros and 350m euros of sales for Rheinmetall this year and next.

While that would be a fraction of total sales – seen at 7.6bn euros in 2023 according to Refinitiv estimates -as the sole qualified supplier of Leopard 2 ammunition, the group could see a significant boost to its earnings, Stiefel said in a note on Wednesday.

The brokerage estimates ammunition sales could lift Rheinmetall’s core earnings by 32m euros each month, potentially doubling the group’s monthly profit based on numbers reported for the first nine months of 2022.

UBS analysts warned though that while Rheinmetall’s shares largely priced in future defence orders, they had yet to materialise.

Papperger, too, this week called on Berlin to quickly turn its 100 bn euro special military budget Scholz announced last year into firm orders, saying industry was standing ready to deliver but needed planning certainty. “The entire German industry is ready,” he said at an industry event. ($1 = 0.9197 euros) (Source: Reuters)

26 Jan 23. Germany, U.S. to send battle tanks to Ukraine, Russia slams decision.

Summary

U.S. providing Abrams tanks, Germany to send Leopard tanks
Biden: Tanks pose ‘no offensive threat’ to Russia
Russian-backed leader: Wagner force advancing on Bakhmut

The United States and Germany have announced plans to arm Ukraine with dozens of battle tanks in its fight against Russia, which denounced the decisions as an “extremely dangerous” step.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised the commitments and urged allies to provide large quantities of tanks quickly.

“The key now is speed and volumes. Speed in training our forces, speed in supplying tanks to Ukraine. The numbers in tank support,” he said in a nightly video address on Wednesday. “We have to form such a ‘tank fist’, such a ‘fist of freedom’.”

Ukraine has been seeking hundreds of modern tanks to give its troops the firepower to break Russian defensive lines and reclaim occupied territory in the south and east. Ukraine and Russia have been relying primarily on Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

The promise of tanks comes as both Ukraine and Russia are expected to launch new offensives in the war and as fighting has intensified in Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east.

Ukrainian forces destroyed 24 drones, including 15 over Kyiv, that Russia launched in overnight attacks, the military said on Thursday, adding there was major danger of more Russian air raids. An alert had been declared over most of the country.

U.S. President Joe Biden announced his decision to supply 31 M1 Abrams tanks hours after Berlin said it would provide Leopard 2 tanks – the workhorse of NATO armies across Europe.

Maintaining Kyiv’s drumbeat of requests for more aid, Zelenskiy said he spoke to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and called for long-range missiles and aircraft.

Ukraine’s allies have already provided billions in military support including sophisticated U.S. missile systems.

The United States has been wary of deploying the difficult-to-maintain Abrams but had to change tack to persuade Germany to send to Ukraine its more easily operated Leopards.

Biden said the tanks pose “no offensive threat” to Russia and that they were needed to help the Ukrainians “improve their ability to manoeuvre in open terrain”.

Germany will send an initial company of 14 tanks from its stocks and approve shipments by allied European states.

The Abrams can be tricky, but the Leopard was designed as a system that any NATO member could service and crews and repair specialists could be trained together on a single model, Ukrainian military expert Viktor Kevlyuk told Espreso TV.

“If we have been brought into this club by providing us with these vehicles, I would say our prospects look good.”

‘DANGEROUS DECISION’

Russia reacted with fury to Germany’s decision to approve the delivery of the Leopards.

“This extremely dangerous decision takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation,” said Sergei Nechayev, Russia’s ambassador to Germany.

Since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year, Russia has shifted its rhetoric on the war from an operation to “denazify” and “demilitarise” its neighbour to casting it as a face-off between it and the U.S.-led NATO alliance.

Senior U.S. officials said it would take months for the Abrams to be delivered and described the decision to supply them as providing for Ukraine’s long-term defence.

Germany’s tanks would probably be ready in three or four months, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said.

Pledges to Ukraine from other countries that field Leopards have multiplied with announcements from Poland, Finland and Norway. Spain and the Netherlands said they were considering it.

Britain has offered 14 of its comparable Challenger tanks and France is considering sending its Leclercs.

BAKHMUT FIGHTING

The Kyiv government acknowledged on Wednesday its forces had withdrawn from Soledar, a small salt-mining town close to Bakhmut in the east, that Russia said it captured more than a week ago, its biggest gain for more than six months.

The area around Bakhmut, with a pre-war population of 70,000, has seen some of the most brutal fighting of the war.

Ukraine’s military said that Russian forces were attacking in the direction of Bakhmut “with the aim of capturing the entire Donetsk region and regardless of its own casualties”.

The Russian-installed governor of Donetsk said earlier that units of Russia’s Wagner contract militia were moving forward inside Bakhmut, with fighting on the outskirts and in neighbourhoods recently held by Ukraine.

Analyst Kevlyuk said losing Bakhmut would not change much in terms of the tactical scheme of things but that he was more concerned by Russian efforts to regroup and concentrate resources in the Luhansk region.

Donetsk and Luhansk make up the Donbas region. Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk, while Russians and their proxies say they control about half of Donetsk. Reuters could not verify battlefield reports.

The 11-month war has killed thousands of people, driven millions from their homes and reduced cities to rubble. (Source: Reuters)

23 Jan 23. Official Details Situation in Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine remains largely static, but there are bloody battles as Russian forces try to take Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces continue offensives against the Russian position near Kreminna, a senior defense official said speaking on background. The official said the situation in those two areas remains fluid with a lot of back and forth. Still, the Ukrainians retain their hold on Bakhmut, he said.

The official detailed the results of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group held last week at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III convened the eighth version of the group, “which featured very productive discussions among senior defense leaders from nearly 50 allies and partner nations,” the official said.

At the end of the meeting on Friday, Austin was able to discuss the largest tally of donations since the inception of the Contact Group in April 2022. The official said this is a tangible demonstration of the solidarity against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The United States also announced a $2.5 bn assistance package for Ukraine that features more Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Stryker armored personnel carriers, more ammunition and more missiles. “Multiple nations announced similar significant support to include Germany and Netherlands contributions of Patriot missile air defense capabilities, Canada’s procurement of a and the United Kingdom’s donation of Challenger 2 tanks,” the official said.

The official highlighted Germany’s contribution of Marder infantry fighting vehicles. France is supplying AMX-10 light tanks and Sweden is donating CV90 infantry fighting vehicles and howitzers. Denmark and Estonia are also donating howitzers to the Ukrainian defense, and Latvia is supplying machine guns and unmanned aerial systems. Lithuania is donating helicopters and many European nations are also stepping forward to train the Ukrainian military on these new capabilities.

“The security assistance donations constitute a variety of lethal capabilities from a multitude of countries, which again underscores the international community’s continued support for Ukraine’s immediate needs on the battlefield,” the official said. “Secretary Austin said in his opening remarks at the Contact Group, Russia is attempting to regroup, recruit and reequip. So, this is not a moment to slow down when it comes to supporting Ukraine and their defense.”

Russia is sending in replacements for units that have been heavily attritted especially in the Bakhmut area, where the Russian military and its mercenaries have had particularly heavy casualties. “A key aspect is, despite these increased numbers in terms of replacements, reinforcements, there is not a significant enhancement in terms of the training of those forces,” the official said. “So again, ill-equipped, ill-trained, rushed to the battlefield.”

The official said that over the full scope of the battlefield, Russia has pushed “tens of thousands” of troops into the fight.

The official would not guess Russian casualties but did reiterate Army Gen. Mark A. Milley’s estimate of “well over 100,000 casualties” in the Russian forces since the war began in February 2022. (Source: US DoD)

23 Jan 23. Italy confirms Samp-T missile-defense donation to Ukraine.

Italy has confirmed it is ready to supply Ukraine with its Samp-T air defense system after weeks of doubt over Rome’s readiness to hand over the costly kit.

Italy will team with France to send the system to Kyiv, which has issued an urgent appeal for air defense capabilities as Russia bombards Ukraine with missiles and mounts loitering munition attacks.

The dispatching of the system was confirmed to Defense News by a spokesman for Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani, who announced the decision in an interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.

“In collaboration with France we are finalizing the dispatch of Samp-T while there are also other initiatives on which we are also working secretly,” Tajani told the newspaper.

Entering into service with the Italian army in 2013, Samp-T is a truck-based tactical antimissile system designed to tackle cruise missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles.

In 2016, Italy sent a battery to Turkey as part of a NATO operation to protect the city of Kahramanmaras from the threat of Syrian missile attacks. Italy will collaborate on the dispatch of the system as France is also a Samp-T user.

Italy only has five Samp-T batteries, leading to concerns over the weakening of Italy’s defense capabilities if it supplies one to Ukraine.

This year’s defense budget document contained plans to buy a sixth battery for the army and a further five to protect Air Force assets.

But with just five batteries in service now, analysts speculated Italy might opt for supplying its older, and more abundant Skyguard-Aspide weapon.

“If we give air defense missiles to Ukraine, we must take them from our stocks and we have to do that without depleting them, and being sure about the quality,” Italian defense minister Guido Crosetto told Italian daily Il Messaggero in December.

Asked about Samp-T earlier this month, Tajani told an Italian radio station, “It takes time because there are technical problems to make the instruments work, the military commands are working on this.”

But in his interview on Sunday, he signaled that the transfer was going ahead, claiming it would form part of a sixth package of arms sent by Italy to Ukraine. The first five had been worth €1 bn, he added.

The equipment sent so far has been kept secret although Stinger surface to air missiles, mortars and Milan, or Panzerfaust, anti-tank weapons were reportedly planned for consignment as well as Browning heavy machine guns, MG-type light machine guns and systems for countering improvised explosive devices. Multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), Pzh2000 howitzers and vehicles have also been dispatched. (Source: Defense Ne

25 Jan 23. Biden Announces Abrams Tanks to be Delivered to Ukraine. President Joe Biden announced today that the United States will provide Ukraine with 31 M1 Abrams tanks. That is the required number to equip an entire Ukraine tank battalion.

These tanks are needed, Biden said, because Ukrainian forces are working to defend the territory they hold and will be better prepared for additional counter-offenses.

“They need to be able to counter Russia’s evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield in the very near term. They need to improve their ability to maneuver in open terrain. And, they need an enduring capability to deter and defend against Russian aggression over the long term,” the president said.

The Abrams tanks are the most capable tanks in the world. And, they’re also extremely complex to operate and maintain. Along with the tanks, the U.S. will be giving Ukraine the parts and equipment necessary to effectively repair and maintain these tanks on the battlefield, he said.

Ukrainian troops will be given training on logistics and maintenance as soon as possible, as actual delivery of these tanks will take some time, he said.

This morning, Biden said he had a long conversation with NATO allies, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni regarding continued close coordination and support of Ukraine.

Biden mentioned strong allied support for Ukraine, which will include German Leopard 2 tanks, a German Patriot missile battery, Challenger 2 tanks from the United Kingdom, and AMX-10 armored fighting vehicles from France.

“This is about helping Ukraine defend and protect Ukrainian land. It is not an offensive threat to Russia,” he said.

“The expectation on the part of Russia is we’re going to break up, we’re not going to stay united. But we are fully thoroughly totally united,” Biden said, speaking of the 50 nations that are part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

Senior administration officials said earlier today that these Abrams tanks will be procured through Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding.

Unlike the presidential drawdown authority, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry rather than delivering equipment that is drawn down from DOD stocks.

The officials also noted that eight M88 recovery vehicles will also be shipped to Ukraine, to accompany the 31 tanks. (Source: US DoD)

25 Jan 23. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the procurement of Abrams tanks for Ukraine via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), to support Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.

This USAI package underscores the continued U.S. commitment to building the capacity of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, now and into the future. Unlike Presidential Drawdown authority (PDA), which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures new capabilities. This $400m USAI package represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional capabilities to Ukraine.

The capabilities in this package include:

31 Abrams tanks with 120mm rounds and other ammunition;
Eight Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment;
Support vehicles and equipment;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Alongside the battalion of Abrams tanks provided by the United States, a European consortium is committing to provide two battalions of Leopard tanks to Ukraine in the near term. The United States will continue to work with our Allies and partners to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs to counter Russian aggression and ensure the continued freedom and independence of the Ukrainian people.

In total, the United States has now committed more than $27.8bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $29.9bn in security assistance to Ukraine and more than $27.1bn since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24, 2022. (Source: US DoD)

24 Jan 23. Ukraine pledges sweeping personnel changes as allies jostle over tanks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said personnel changes were being carried out at senior and lower levels, following the most high-profile graft allegations since Russia’s invasion that threaten to dampen Western enthusiasm for the Kyiv government.

Reports of a new scandal in Ukraine, which has a long history of shaky governance, come as European countries bicker over giving it German-made Leopard 2 tanks – the workhorse of armies across Europe that Ukraine says it needs to break through Russian lines and recapture territory.

“There are already personnel decisions – some today, some tomorrow – regarding officials at various levels in ministries and other central government structures, as well as in the regions and in law enforcement,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address late on Monday.

Zelenskiy did not identify the officials to be replaced. Several Ukrainian media outlets have reported that cabinet ministers and senior officials could be sacked imminently.

The deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, later said he had asked Zelenskiy to relieve him of his duties. He did not give a reason but media reported earlier that he might be part of a shake-up.

On Sunday, anti-corruption police said they had detained the deputy infrastructure minister on suspicion of receiving a $400,000 kickback over the import of generators last September, an allegation the minister denies.

A newspaper accused the Defence Ministry of overpaying suppliers for soldiers’ food. The supplier has said it made a technical mistake and no money had changed hands.

David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskiy’s Servant of the People party, said officials should “focus on the war, help victims, cut bureaucracy and stop dubious business”.

“We’re definitely going to be jailing actively this spring. If the humane approach doesn’t work, we’ll do it in line with martial law,” he said.

‘SPRING WILL BE DECISIVE’

Front lines in the war have been largely frozen in place for two months despite heavy losses on both sides.

Ukraine says Western tanks would give its troops the firepower to break Russian defensive lines. But Western allies have been unable to reach an agreement on arming Kyiv with tanks, wary of action that could trigger Russian escalation.

Germany, which must approve Leopard re-exports, has said it is willing to act quickly if there is a consensus among allies.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Warsaw would seek permission to send Leopard tanks to Kyiv and was trying to get others on board.

Germany was not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union’s top diplomat said on Monday.

American lawmakers have pressed their government to export M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, saying even a symbolic number would help push European allies to do the same.

Britain has said it will supply 14 Challenger 2 tanks. French President Emmanuel Macron said he did not rule out the possibility of sending Leclerc tanks.

Russia has sought to apply its own pressure.

“All countries which take part, directly or indirectly, in pumping weapons into Ukraine and in raising its technological level bear responsibility” for continuing the conflict, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Ukraine and Russia are both believed to be planning spring offensives to break the deadlock in what has become a war of attrition in eastern and southern Ukraine.

“If the major Russian offensive planned for this time fails, it will be the ruin of Russia and Putin,” Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said in an interview with news site Delfi.

Meanwhile, Russian forces pounded Donetsk in Ukraine’s east.

Ukrainian forces repelled 11 attacks, 10 of them in the Donetsk region, including in the areas of the town of Bakhmut and the village of Klishchiivka to the south, Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday.

Last week, Russia claimed the capture of Klishchiivka. Russian forces have been pressing for months for control of Bakhmut but with limited success.

Reuters could not verify battlefield reports.

‘ACTING AGAINST THE WEST’

In the 11 months since invading Ukraine, Russia has shifted its rhetoric on the war from an operation to “denazify” and “demilitarise” its neighbour to casting it as defence against an aggressive West. Ukraine and its Western allies call it an unprovoked act of aggression.

On Monday, the new general in charge of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine warned that modern Russia had never seen such “intensity of military hostilities”, forcing it to carry out offensive operations.

“Our country and its armed forces are today acting against the entire collective West,” Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov told the news website Argumenty i Fakty.

Military reforms, announced mid-January, could be adjusted to respond to threats to Russia’s security, which include Sweden and Finland’s aspirations to join NATO and “the use of Ukraine as a tool for waging a hybrid war against our country”, he said. (Source: Reuters)

24 Jan 23. Rheinmetall could deliver 139 Leopard tanks to Ukraine – RND. German defence group Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) could deliver 139 Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine if required, a spokesperson for the company told media group RND.

Germany is coming under intense pressure from Ukraine and some NATO allies, such as Poland, to allow Kyiv to be supplied with German-made Leopard 2 tanks for its defence against Russia’s invasion.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far held back from supplying the tanks or allowing other NATO countries to do so.

Manufacturer Rheinmetall could deliver 29 Leopard 2A4 tanks by April/May and a further 22 of the same model around the end of 2023 or early 2024, the spokesperson was quoted as saying.

It could also supply 88 older Leopard 1 tanks, the person said, without giving a timeframe for their potential delivery. (Source: Reuters)

23 Jan 23. Germany starts deploying Patriot air defence units to Poland. Germany on Monday dispatched the first two out of three Patriot air defence units that will be sent to the Polish town of Zamosc close to the Ukrainian border where they will be deployed to prevent stray missile strikes.

Two men were killed by a stray Ukrainian missile that struck the Polish village of Przewodow in the region last November, in an incident that raised fears of the war in Ukraine spilling over the border.

As a result, Berlin offered to deploy three of its Patriot units to Poland to help secure its air space.

Ground-based air defence systems such as Raytheon’s (RTX.N) Patriot are built to intercept incoming missiles.

“One of the reasons why Germany will now support NATO’s eastern flank in Poland with Patriots is certainly because we saw how quickly the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could spill over to NATO member countries,” Colonel Joerg Sievers told reporters in the eastern German town of Gnoien before the Patriots’ departure.

Sievers, who will command the German unit in Poland, underlined the defensive nature of the Patriot system.

“We are not the only defence forces on the ground, the British and Americans are also on the ground,” he said.

“Patriot is a strictly defensive system, and we hope that we will be able to provide sufficient protection there to prevent attacks or accidents like the one in November in the future,” he added. (Source: Reuters)

23 Jan 23. Netherlands offers to pay for Leopard 2 tanks and give F-16AM/BM fighters to Ukraine. According to NL Times, the Dutch government will look into supplying some of its 68 F-16A/B MLU fighter jets (it originally had 213 aircraft) to Ukraine if the Kyiv government asks for it. During a parliamentary debate on January 19, Minister of Foreign Affairs Wopke Hoekstra said the Cabinet would look at such a request with an “open mind.” In Davos, Minister of Defense Kajsa Ollongren also said that the Netherlands is willing to help pay for modern Leopard 2 tanks that other countries send to Ukraine, NL Times reports.

Dutch Minister of Defense Kajsa Ollongren asked the Cabinet to supply F-16s and infantry fighting vehicles to the Ukrainian armed forces. According to Minister of Foreign Affairs Wopke Hoekstra, the Netherlands only sends items that Ukraine asks for. Kyiv currently mainly needs heavy weapons. The country has been asking for modern battle tanks for some time. Poland and Finland want to send German Leopard 2 tanks, but they need permission from Germany, which has been given on Wednesday, January 25, at 1.00 PM by German chancellor Olav Scholz. Germany itself will send a company-strong number (14) of its own Leopard 2A6s, almost the latest version of the Leopard 2 which goes up to the A7 and A7+ standards.

The Royal Netherlands Army operated 445 Leopard 2s. 330 of these were updated to the 2A5 standard in 1993, and later, 188 of these were converted to the 2A6 standard. Many Leopard 2s were sold after the end of the Cold War. In April 2011, the Dutch Ministry of Defence announced that the last remaining tank division would be disbanded and the remaining Leopard tanks sold due to large budget cuts. In May 2011, the last tank fired the final shot at the Bergen-Hohne Training Area. They were due to be delivered to the Indonesian Army, which planned to purchase the entire Dutch stock of Leopard 2A6s. The deal was scrapped after opposition from the Dutch Parliament. The Dutch Army offered its formerly operated Leopard 2A6s for comparative tests to be conducted by the Peruvian Army for possible acquisition. By September 2013, the Leopard 2A6 had been disqualified by Peru due to logistical complexities. Leopard 2s were eventually sold to Finland in a deal signed in January 2014 for €200m with deliveries to start from 2015 to 2019. In September 2015, the Dutch government published that the army would have 16 tanks put out of storage and 18 were to be leased from Germany for a new tank squadron by 2016 as part of a German armored battalion.

It was reported on a previous occasion that the Dutch government would be making EUR 2.5bn available this year to support Ukraine. By doing so, the Netherlands is sending a message of undiminished solidarity to the Ukrainian people, who can count on Dutch support for as long as it is needed. The Netherlands is not alone in its stance. For example, the supply of tanks to Ukraine was discussed in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The Netherlands joined a group of countries, which includes Germany, that indicated that it would study the possibilities regarding the supply of Western main battle tanks, including the provision of training. That process will be further explored in the coming period. Furthermore, the participating countries again underlined their intention to provide long-term military support to Ukraine. They reaffirmed that this support is unconditional and will continue for the duration of the conflict.

Ukraine has a continuing need for well-trained military personnel. The UK took the initiative at the beginning of July last year with Operation Interflex, which was launched to train Ukrainian military personnel rapidly and on a large scale. The Netherlands joined the operation. In the period September to November, approximately 90 members of the Royal Netherlands Army trained 400 Ukrainian recruits. From this month to April, almost 70 members of the Netherlands Marine Corps will train a further 400 Ukrainian recruits. Furthermore, a Dutch officer is serving on the operation’s British coordinating staff. Throughout 2023, Dutch service members will train hundreds of Ukrainian military personnel. (Source: https: Now///www.armyrecognition.com/)

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