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Military And Security Developments
Dec 2.
• Russian forces have continued with offensive operations across Donetsk oblast in the last 24 hours; they have likely made further incremental gains south of Bakhmut. While Ukrainian sources continue to deny that Ukraine has lost any ground, unconfirmed but geolocated footage published on 1 December indicates that Ukrainian forces have possibly withdrawn from certain positions along the T-0513 highway connecting Bakhmut to Horlivka in the south. Russian sources claim that Russian forces currently enjoy almost total control of the road.
• For the first time in several days, the Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier on 2 December that their forces repelled Russian attacks around Bakhmut. This possibly indicates that Ukrainian forces have begun to stem the latest Russian advances around Bakhmut itself over the last 24 hours. Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces remain under intense pressure across this axis. Frontline Ukrainian commanders interviewed by CNN on 1 December emphasised that their forces in Bakhmut are heavily outnumbered and are running low on ammunition. Russian forces are almost certainly taking very high casualty rates as part of their assault against the Bakhmut line. However, Russian commanders have repeatedly shown a willingness to sustain high casualties in order to degrade Ukraine’s capability steadily. This possibly represents Russia’s ultimate strategy in the vicinity of Bakhmut; if Russia sustains this activity, it will possibly force the Ukrainians to withdraw to establish new defensive lines further west.
• Further north along the Oskil-Kreminna line, both sides have reportedly repelled attacks at various key points, including north-east of Kupiansk, north-west of Svatove and west of Kreminna. Numerous Russian sources over the last 24-48 hours have raised concerns about growing concentrations of Ukrainian forces around Chervonopopivka, a village located five miles (8km) north-west of Kreminna along the R-66 highway. Meanwhile, Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov stated on 1 December that local Ukrainian forces expect Russian forces to restart offensive operations in the direction of Lyman so as to retake the initiative. As such, various areas west of Kreminna likely remain contested as both sides seek to regain territory amid steadily improving ground conditions.
• Further south, the Ukrainian General Staff reported on 1 December that Russian forces are currently withdrawing from certain positions south of Zaporizhzhia city. Hromov claims that Russian forces have now withdrawn from Inzhenerne, Mykhailivka and Polohy, which are all located just to the south of the Zaporizhzhia frontline. It remains unclear whether Russian forces positioned forward of these towns have also withdrawn or whether the withdrawals are part of an attempt to redeploy forces along the front to strengthen positions at other critical points. Mykhailivka is particularly key; it is located between the frontline town of Vasylivka and Melitopol to the south – the possible objective of any future Ukrainian counter-offensive along this axis.
• The General Staff also reported that the Russian occupation authorities are currently undertaking a census in Burchak, located five miles (8km) south of Vasylivka and nine miles (14km) north of Mykhailivka, to prepare for a future evacuation of the town. At the very least, this points to contingencies for a wider withdrawal southwards, and suggests that it is likely Russia does not currently have enough forces to shore up the entire Zaporizhzhia front. Russian sources have frequently cited concerns over a new Ukrainian counter-offensive south of Zaporizhzhia; the recent reallocation of forces possibly forms part of Russian efforts to prepare fall-back positions in case of such an attack.
• Mykhailo Podolyak, the senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, reported on 1 December that up to 13,000 Ukrainian service personnel have been killed since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed earlier on 2 December that over 90,000 Russian service personnel have now died in the conflict. As previously assessed, it remains extremely difficult to confirm the accuracy of any casualty estimates. Ultimately, it is likely that both figures are overly optimistic; the reported number of Ukrainian deaths is likely to be lower than in reality, with the reported Russian figure likely to be higher. Earlier this week, the EU estimated the Ukrainian death toll to be around 100,000. While Brussels subsequently suggested this was an error, the Pentagon previously cited a similar number (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 10 November and 30 November).
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• On 1 December, 100 soldiers were exchanged in the latest prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. The exchange involved 50 soldiers from each side. Numerous prisoner swaps have taken place in recent weeks, highlighting that some form of tactical negotiations are ongoing. However, high-level peace talks between the two sides remain allusive (see Forecast below for further analysis). Regarding the issue of Russia-US prisoner swaps, the Kremlin confirmed on 1 December that details of negotiations with the US will not be publicly disclosed, and that Moscow will not engage Washington DC on the issue before the end of the year. The announcement comes as the Biden administration expressed hope that a deal can be reached to secure the transfer of imprisoned US basketball player Brittney Griner and investor Paul Whelan. In light of the Kremlin’s unilateral suspension of New START talks, it therefore appears that Moscow is currently shutting down or at least postponing various negotiation streams with the US.
• Also on 1 December, S&P Global released the latest Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures. This year’s data indicate that Russia’s manufacturing firms recorded their fastest growth in almost six years. The data suggest an overall improvement in ‘operating conditions at Russian manufacturers’. The body attributed the positive figures to expansions in output, and while new export orders have contracted sharply, strong domestic demand and state intervention to support the war effort have increased employment rates. Furthermore, the S&P report claims that from a PMI perspective, Western sanctions have inflicted greater harm on European economies than on Russia’s; it suggests the sanctions have had minimal impact on Russia’s overall manufacturing and oil production levels.
• The PMI report comes as EU governments agreed on 1 December to a preliminary price cap of USD 60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil. While this cap has yet to be formally agreed after weeks of disagreement among member states, the proposed price cap (which is likely to be introduced on 5 December) represents the bloc’s latest attempt to reduce Moscow’s oil revenues, which are used to fund the war in Ukraine. However, the latest PMI data ultimately suggest that Western sanctions are not having a major impact on Russian industrial capacity; indeed, the war and partial mobilisation of the economy continue to boost domestic production.
FORECAST
On 1 December, French President Emmanuel Macron visited his US counterpart Joe Biden in Washington DC. The two leaders discussed the need for a sustainable peace in Ukraine. Macron confirmed France’s policy that Ukraine must set the terms for peace negotiations, not Russia. While both leaders committed to holding Russia to account for its ‘widely documented atrocities and war crimes’, they diverged on the issue of conducting direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Macron, who has consistently maintained communication with the Kremlin since the early phases of the war, stated that he would continue to talk to Putin in order to prevent escalation. Meanwhile, Biden affirmed he had no immediate plans to contact Putin. However, Biden did confirm that he is prepared to speak with Putin if the Russian president is looking for a way to end the war. He added that the only ‘rational’ way to end the war is for Russian troops to pull out of Ukraine. The Kremlin responded earlier on 2 December by stating that Moscow is ready to negotiate to ‘ensure its interests’ in Ukraine, but that it will not negotiate with the US if Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine is a precondition. This impasse ultimately reflects the low likelihood of any meaningful peace talks in the short to medium term, given that both sides’ current preconditions remain non-starters for the other; Ukraine and the US demand the total withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, while Russia is clearly unprepared to countenance a withdrawal from areas it has annexed. These preconditions will possibly soften as the war continues and international pressure is applied to end the fighting. However, there is presently little indication that either Moscow or Kyiv is prepared to offer concessions to initiate negotiations in the short term.
Dec 1.
• Following incremental Russian progress south of Bakhmut in recent days, reports and geolocated footage emerging over the last 24-48 hours suggest Russian forces are continuing to make marginal gains. Geolocated footage suggests Russian forces have made some advances on the south-eastern and north-eastern outskirts of Bakhmut itself while conflicting reports suggest Russia has indeed taken control of at least the eastern portion of Kurdyumivka, 8 miles (13km) southwest of Bakhmut. To the northeast of Bakhmut, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 30 November that its forces had retaken Bilohorivka in its entirety, a highly contested town 7 miles (12km) northwest of Lysychansk. However, we cannot confirm this at present. Heavy fighting has also continued west of Donetsk city, but amid conflicting reports, there are no major developments.
• Further north along the Oskil-Kreminna line, patterns of fighting have remained broadly on-trend over the last 24-48 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 30 November that Russian forces attempted numerous attacks northwest of Svatove, including near Stelmakhivka, 11 miles (18km) northwest of Svatove. Meanwhile, the Russian MoD reported that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions around Novoselivske, 11 miles (18km) northwest of Svatove. However, amongst the most significant reports was a Ukrainian General Staff report that Russian forces shelled their positions in Chervonopopivka and Ploshchanka, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced towards the R-66 highway northwest of Kreminna. While it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces have taken control of a section of the highway, this would represent progress towards cutting off Kreminna from Svatove to the north. Meanwhile, an officer in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Militia reported this morning that Ukrainian forces are deploying ‘elite brigades’ in the Kupiansk direction ‘as it fears a breakthrough of its defensive lines’. Equally, however, the deployment of additional Ukrainian units could also be in preparation to support renewed counter-offensive operations along this axis, particularly as the ground begins to harden in the coming weeks.
• On the southern Kherson axis, Russian and Ukrainian forces are conducting positional defensive operations along the banks of the Dnieper River. Notably, a video posted by Hromadske on 30 November showed Ukrainian forces underneath the Antonivsky Bridge engaging in small-arms fire with Russian forces positioned at the opposite end of the bridge. According to interviews with the Ukrainian soldiers conducted by Hromadske, numerous Ukrainian units are positioned forward along the river to prevent Russian reconnaissance and sabotage raids from crossing the river. Russian units returning fire in the video have likely been tasked with preventing similar Ukrainian raids.
• The Ukrainian General Staff has this morning, 1 December, reiterated its warnings of the threat of missile strikes ‘in the near future’. The updated assessment drew attention to increased activity at Russia’s principal strategic bomber airbase in Saratov and the fact that Russian cruise missile-carrying naval vessels remain at sea off Sevastopol. For further analysis.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• This morning, 1 December, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka chaired a meeting of the country’s military and political elite where they discussed the ‘military-political situation’ and the defences of the southern Belarusian border. During the meeting, Lukashenka claimed that law enforcement has noted ‘an increase in the number of provocations near the state border’, and claimed that Ukraine is attempting all pretexts to draw NATO forces into the conflict. Lukashenka’s remarks follow similar accusations made by the Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin on 30 November. Khrenin claimed yesterday that unspecified actions by neighbouring NATO member states suggest preparations are being made to conduct military operations ‘in the eastern direction’, likely towards Belarus. There is no evidence to support this and Minsk has frequently warned of the perceived or fabricated threat NATO poses to Belarus in recent months.
• Notably, Lukashenka also accused the exiled opposition of openly calling for a coup, terrorist attacks and strikes against Belarusian critical infrastructure. This reinforces the possibility of future sabotage and/or false flag operations on Belarusian soil being blamed on external dissidents and traitors, potentially justifying further domestic oppression and arrests.
• These allegations remain consistent with previous statements made by Lukashenka and are unlikely to present a notable change to the security situation or the trajectory of Minsk’s involvement in the war. While the threat of small-scale provocations along the border and false-flag operations remains a realistic possibility moving forward, our assessment of the likelihood of a renewed invasion from Belarus has not changed.
• Nevertheless, the unexpected death of Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makei last week has led to speculation that he was killed by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) due to his potential backchanneling with the West in a bid to preserve Belarusian independence. While there is no evidence to support this, Makei had indeed played a prominent role in Belarus’ overtures to the West before the 2020 presidential election. However, the repression of anti-government protests effectively burned Minsk’s bridges with the West and ensured Lukashenka remained solely reliant upon Moscow’s support. Since then, Makei has decidedly supported the repression and has consistently maintained the official Kremlin-approved line on the war in Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Makei had been attempting to establish clandestine contacts with the West, but if he was doing so, it would only have been under the orders of Lukashenka himself. Therefore, it remains unclear if Makei died of a heart attack or was poisoned. In any case, his death has not changed the current military balance, our assessment remains that both Russian and Belarusian forces cannot currently open up a new front north of Kyiv in the short term.
• On 30 November, Russian opposition outlet Meduza claimed it had gained access to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the Kremlin for ‘internal use only’. According to the poll, which was reportedly conducted by the Federal Protective Service (FSO), 55 percent of Russians now favour peace talks with Ukraine, while only 27 percent support the continuation of the war. The FSO’s polling indicates a significant shift in public opinion in recent months, with an earlier FSO poll conducted in July putting support for talks at only 32 percent and support for continuing the war at 57 percent.
• Denis Volkov, director of the polling service Levada Centre, stated that support for the war dramatically reduced after Moscow’s partial mobilisation announcement in September. Amid the potential for further rounds of partial mobilisation this or next month, the results reflect the Russian population’s growing reluctance to take part in the war personally. However, widespread apathy, the Kremlin’s control over the information space and state repression mean it is unlikely that such polling will seriously influence Kremlin decision-making at this stage. There is very little indication that a general preference for peace talks is going to transition into physical protests any time soon, and until that is the case, the Kremlin will likely attempt to suppress polling data and continue the war.
FORECAST
Yesterday, 30 November, an apparent letter bomb sent to the Ukrainian Embassy in Madrid lightly injured a staff member. The initial letter was addressed to the Ukrainian ambassador, Serhiy Pohoreltsev, but Spanish authorities have discovered five such packages. A second envelope was sent to the Spanish defence firm Instalaza in Zaragoza, which produces C90 grenade launchers which Madrid sent to Ukraine. A third was also discovered at the Torrejón de Ardoz Air Force base near Madrid. El Pais has also reported this morning that a similar envelope containing ‘pyrotechnic material’ was previously intercepted on 24 November, which has been addressed to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
While an investigation is ongoing, it remains a realistic possibility that Russian operatives or independent pro-Russian actors were behind the letters. The array of intended targets reflects the potential scope of a wider bomb threat wave for both the government and private sectors across Europe. Ukrainian embassies and related interests, including other political and cultural institutions, will remain at particular risk outside of Spain, with the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stepping up security at all its embassies and consulates in the wake of the attack.
However, the subsequent confirmation of additional envelopes underscores the threat posed to the private and non-governmental sectors. In particular, Western defence firms that have produced equipment for the Ukrainian military, already at increased risk of Russian-sponsored corporate and state espionage, will likely remain at increased risk of similar targeted letter bomb attacks. Short of genuine security threats, pro-Russian actors may also seek to capitalise on the fear of the developments and call in false bomb scares in a bid to cause maximum disruption, which could have a significant impact on business operations across Europe. Russia itself had before the war suffered from repeated bomb scares across the country, which required local security forces to conduct thorough sweeps of buildings, causing disruption and delays at government facilities as well as private businesses.
Spain: Letter bomb incidents highlight elevated short-term threats to Ukraine-affiliated institutions. On 30 November, letter bombs were sent to the Ukrainian embassy in the capital Madrid and the site of the weapons manufacturer Instalaza in Zaragoza in north-eastern Spain. One employee at the Ukrainian embassy sustained minor injuries when the explosive device – hidden in a letter and addressed to Ambassador Serhii Pohoreltsev – detonated. Instalaza produces C90 grenade launchers, which Spain has supplied to the Ukrainian military. Earlier on 1 December, the Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported that a third explosive package was detected between 0300 and 0400 hrs (local time) at the Torrejon de Ardoz air base in Madrid. The police currently suspect that all three incidents are connected; they are concerned that further devices will be discovered in the coming hours and days. As a result, there is an elevated threat to Ukraine-affiliated institutions in the coming days, particularly in countries with high levels of pro-Russia sentiment.
Nov. 30.
• On the 280th day of war since the 24 February invasion, Russian forces have continued to make incremental progress in Donetsk oblast over the last 24 hours, particularly south of Bakhmut. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials claimed their forces had taken Ozarianivka and Andriivka, 9 miles (15km) and 6 miles (9km) southwest of Bakhmut respectively. Other Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces broke through Ukrainian lines along the T-0513 highway towards Chasiv Yar, which if true would threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the N-32 highway further west. However, it remains to be seen whether this is accurate given such a breakthrough would represent a significant advance in a short period. Amid other claimed advances over the last 48-72 hours, we cannot currently confirm the extent of Russian progress, though once again the Ukrainian General Staff has not reported on repulsing Russian attacks around Bakhmut – a possible indication that Russian forces are making progress here.
• Along the Oskil-Kreminna line further north, poor weather conditions continue to stymie progress on both sides. However, the Ukrainian General Staff have reported that Russian forces have over the last 24-48 hours continued defensive operations around Kupiansk, the northernmost part of the axis, though Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding positions and repelling Russian attacks. Russian sources also claimed on 29 November that their forces had captured Novoselivske, around 11 miles (18km) to the north-west of Svatove, but this has not been confirmed.
• Meanwhile, Russian sources have reported that Ukrainian forces have continued counter-offensive operations west of Svatove and Kreminna respectively, though it does not appear that any progress has been made. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) officials claimed on 29 November that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to break through Russian lines towards the R-66 highway that connects Kreminna to Svatove. However, Russian forces have also been launching small-scale offensive operations west of Kreminna in a likely bid to retake lost positions and undermine Ukrainian preparations for further counter-offensive operations as ground conditions steadily improve.
• There have been few notable developments along the southern Kherson axis over the last 24 hours. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky did state on 29 November that Russian forces are ‘planning something’ in the southern direction, without providing any further details. It remains unclear what he was referring to, and where in the southern direction. In recent weeks, Russian military activity across the south has been focused on fortifying GLOCs, increasing the artillery bombardment of Kherson city and redeploying forces freed up by the withdrawal from Kherson to the east.
• Ukrainian forces have meanwhile stepped up cross-border shelling against Russian targets in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts over the last 24 hours. Russian officials reported overnight shelling of critical infrastructure, with Kursk governor Roman Starovoit confirming that hits on power supply facilities had resulted in power cuts in Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts. An oil depot was also set alight early this morning in Bryansk oblast, near the Belarus and Ukrainian borders. According to preliminary assessments, the fire was likely caused by munitions dropped by Ukrainian drones.
• On 29 November, UK Defence Intelligence reported that over the last three months Russia has likely stopped deploying their forces in Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs). The BTG concept revolves around a semi-permanent task force, normally a motorised rifle or tank battalion together with combat support attachments. This force is designed as a semi-independent force capable of conducting combined arms operations. The UK assessment highlights numerous weaknesses in the BTG concept as it has been deployed in Ukraine, including insufficient allocation of combat infantry and decentralised artillery in BTGs, which has prevented effective exploitation of Russia’s numerical advantage as it relates to guns.
• BTGs have, as a matter of course and doctrine been committed to fight until the integrity of the BTG has been expended or destroyed, whereafter fresh BTGs are brought forward to continue offensive operations while the first BTG is reconstituted from the ground up. While BTGs were always by their nature ad hoc units, the influx of large numbers of poorly trained and equipped mobilised forces to Ukraine has likely meant Russian forces are now being deployed in much more ad hoc structures. Numerous indications in recent months suggest that Russian forces are struggling to operate at higher levels of coordination between units.
• During his nightly address to the Ukrainian people, President Volodymyr Zelensky once again warned Ukrainians to expect a major Russian strike against critical infrastructure this week. Recent patterns have seen a large-scale strike roughly once a week or so since October, with the last major nationwide strike taking place on 23 November. There have been several indications suggesting preparations are currently underway for a renewed large-scale strike campaign in the coming days. These include the deployment of a surface warship equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles west of Sevastopol earlier this week and satellite imagery indicating a significant concentration of Russian strategic bombers at the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov.
• According to available footage, 14 Tu-95MS and four Tu-160 strategic bombers were stationed at the base on 28 November, with unconfirmed reports circulating social media as of writing that further aircraft have been deployed to the base amid potential training flights as of this morning. It should be noted that recent UK and US assessments suggest Russian forces are firing unarmed nuclear-capable cruise missiles, namely ageing Kh-55s, to deplete Ukraine’s air defences. Increased numbers of strategic bomber aircraft could indicate future attacks will seek to fire cruise missiles from a large number of directions to better overwhelm Ukrainian air defences. Despite not having a warhead, Kh-55s can still inflict significant damage given the kinetic force of the missile and the ignition of fuel upon contact. For an appraisal of Ukrainian air defences and estimated stocks of Russian long-range missiles.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on 30 November that Brussels will soon develop a plan to confiscate frozen Russian assets and reallocate them to the reconstruction of Ukraine and to compensate Ukraine for damage caused by the war. The EU has so far blocked some EUR 300bn of Russian Central Bank reserves as well as EUR 19bn in Russian oligarchs’ assets and money. Von der Leyen has proposed establishing a fund, which the EU and its partners – likely including the UK and US – would manage to invest in reconstructing Ukraine. Kyiv has long pushed for the seizure of frozen Russian assets to compensate for war damages, and this is a significant step forwards that will likely provide additional funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, the official seizure of Russian assets will increase the risk of retaliation in the form of tit-for-tat seizures of Western assets inside Russia, particularly if oligarchs’ assets are seized.
• However, in the opening to von der Leyen’s speech, the Commission President also claimed that according to recent estimates, around 100,000 Ukrainian service personnel and 20,000 civilians have been killed in the war. The Ukrainian General Staff responded this morning by reaffirming that Kyiv cannot and will not confirm this figure, emphasising that Ukrainian casualty rates are classified information. Following the General Staff’s response, the European Commission acknowledged ‘inaccuracies’ in von der Leyen’s speech, and subsequently removed references to casualty figures in the official text of the statement on the Commission’s website. Accurate casualty rates are notoriously difficult to confirm, though the Ukrainian General Staff claims that some 88,880 Russian service personnel have been killed in Ukraine.
• At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Bucharest, Romania, on 29 November, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg committed to increasing support for Ukraine, including practical support to help restore Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The US in particular announced USD 53 m in support to buy power grid equipment after Kyiv appealed for transformers to repair its infrastructure. Ukraine’s largest private electricity producer DTEK stated on 29 November that almost one m Ukrainians remained without power yesterday, despite efforts to steadily bring systems back online. Amid the enduring threat of a new wave of long-range strikes (see above) rolling blackouts and temporary outages of water and mobile service will remain par the course for the Ukrainian operating environment for the foreseeable future.
FORECAST
On 29 November, the US news outlet Daily Beast cited two unnamed senior Central African Republic (CAR) military officers who claimed that the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) is freeing rebels held in jail cells across the CAR and deploying them in Ukraine, among other places. Wagner Group forces have been active in the CAR since 2017, with sources indicating that manpower shortages in Mali and Ukraine are driving the group’s recruitment of prisoners in CAR. The CAR officers reported that since October, Wagner officials have been releasing rebels and individuals deemed to be ‘terrorists’ by the government. However, they went on to state that the central government in Bangui has given Wagner Group ‘free rein’ and as such there is little local authorities and commanders can do to stop the recruitment of individuals convicted of extrajudicial violence and rape.
Dozens of so-called ‘Black Russians’ recruited in the CAR have reportedly been deployed to the Donbas in recent weeks, underscoring Wagner’s enduring practice of recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine. On 29 November, Wagner’s head Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed that a Zambian citizen killed in the Donbas had in fact been a Russian prisoner, recruited by Wagner.
While Wagner Group’s indiscriminate recruitment policies remain par the course in Ukraine, the deployment of individuals from other parts of the world that have potentially participated in war crimes will increase the likelihood of the group being designated a terrorist organisation by the West. On 29 November, Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is actively considering whether to declare the Wagner Group a ‘terrorist organisation’, just days after the US clarified its position that it was not considering labelling Russia itself as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’. These latest developments underscore the increasing influence Wagner forces are having in the CAR as well as elsewhere across Sub-Saharan Africa, where deployments to Mali are exacerbating security challenges since the withdrawal of French-led forces earlier this year.
Russia: Expansion of ‘foreign agent’ law will increase risk of new restrictions being placed on Western-linked NGOs and businesses. From 1 December, Russia’s so-called ‘foreign agent’ laws will be strengthened, exposing potentially large numbers of Western-aligned entities and individuals to restrictions. Under the new legislation, the definition of what constitutes a ‘foreign agent’ will expand to include anyone who is deemed to be ‘under foreign influence’, rather than just those directly receiving funding from abroad. In addition, Russian authorities will begin publishing data pertaining to individuals and groups labelled as ‘foreign agents’ from 1 December, including insurance account numbers, taxpayer identification codes, names and birth dates. Being labelled as a ‘foreign agent’ carries several restrictions, including bans on working as teachers, organising public events, distributing information and mandatory auditing procedures. Western NGOs are expected to be impacted, but the vague ‘under foreign influence’ wording could implicate any Western-linked entity or individual.
Cyber Update.
• During this monitoring period, pro-Russia cyber campaigns against Ukraine and its allies remained consistent with previously identified levels. Most notably, the EU was the target of a low-level distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, for which the pro-Russia hacking group Killnet has since claimed responsibility. In addition, a surge in the use of a ransomware variants named ‘RansomBoggs’ against targets in Ukraine was identified in the past week. Following reports that pro-Russia actors engaged in the reconnaissance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the Netherlands, European energy infrastructure facilities are likely to face heightened threats in the short-to-medium term.
• In the past week, Team OneFist, the IT Army of Ukraine and Anonymous (all pro-Ukraine hacktivist volunteer groups and hacktivist collectives) reported that cyber attacks had been conducted against the Russian government and associated entities, companies and infrastructure. This remains broadly consistent with trends observed in previous weeks. Attacks against such targets are likely to persist in the coming weeks as pro-Ukraine groups aim to counter Russian propaganda and to undermine Moscow’s military activities in Ukraine.
LATEST SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
Pro-Russia cyber campaigns continue to target Ukrainian allies; surge in pro-Russia ransomware activity identified in Ukraine
• On 28 November, the software company ESET announced that it observed a surge in the use of RansomBoggs against targets in Ukraine. The company confirmed that the malware is written in .NET and is currently being treated as a new strain. Its deployment is largely similar to previous activity by the pro-Russia hacker group Sandworm. Sandworm has routinely been linked to Russia’s Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU). Researchers further stated that the script used to distribute this particular .NET ransomware is similar to one seen during an attack against Ukraine’s energy sector last year. It is also reportedly similar to ‘Iradium’, a GRU operation that involved ransomware attacks against Ukrainian and Polish targets in October.
• Also on 28 November, the industrial cyber security firm Dragos issued a warning about the threat posed by Russia towards energy infrastructure at European ports. More specifically, the Xenotime and Kamacite activist groups were identified as potential cyber threat actors engaged in the reconnaissance of Gasunie’s LNG terminal at the port of Eemshaven (Rotterdam, the Netherlands). Both groups have been historically linked to GRU attacks against industrial targets.
• On 24 November, Killnet claimed responsibility for a DDoS attack against the European Parliament’s website. The attack occurred shortly after lawmakers approved a resolution to designate Russia as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’. A spokesperson has since confirmed that the attack forced high levels of outside traffic onto the server and consequently disrupted the network.
Pro-Kyiv groups continue to target Russian government-linked public, private sector entities
• On 29 November, the IT Army of Ukraine, a volunteer pro-Kyiv hacking group with alleged ties to the Ukrainian government, announced that cyber operations had taken place against VTB Bank, a Russian majority state-owned bank. The hacking group announced that it aims to ‘interrupt payment processing, delay liabilities’ and undermine the bank’s reputation. This followed the group’s announcement that cyber attacks took place against the Russia-based Alfa Bank on 25 November, which reportedly aimed to disrupt Black Friday consumer sales and purchases. The group did not provide further details about the cyber campaigns, though it is likely they involved DDoS attacks overwhelming servers.
• On 27 November, the Twitter account claiming to represent Voltage, the alleged founder of Team OneFist, posted a Tweet about cyber attacks by Mefisto, one of the group’s Poland-based members. Voltage uploaded pictures reportedly proving that the cyber attacks had temporarily defaced the website of Orbilet (a Russian entertainment event ticket platform) using a pop-up photo of a fake film. The mock film poster labelled Russia as a ‘terrorist state which violates international law’.
• On 22 November, a Twitter account claiming to represent the Anonymous hacktivist collective posted alleged evidence of cyber attacks targeting the Culture of Orenburg website. Orenburg is a region and city in south-east Russia. The attacks reportedly temporarily blocked access to the website, defacing it with an image displaying ‘stop the war’.
FORECAST
During this monitoring period, patterns of pro-Russia cyber activity remained in line with our assessment that there is a significant and persistent cyber threat against the security of Ukraine and its allies. Fresh DDoS attacks were conducted against the European Parliament’s website, underscoring the ongoing cyber threat facing organisations and countries which are politically and financially supportive of Ukraine in its fight against Russia. In this instance, the attack temporarily disrupted the network by flooding servers with traffic.
Our assessment remains that pro-Russia actors’ overreliance on DDoS attacks will persist in the short to medium term. This largely unsophisticated mode of cyber attack has so far only inflicted small-scale damage against the cyber infrastructure of entities such as the EU, as well as Poland, the UK and the US, among others. However, malign pro-Russia cyber actors such as Killnet have undoubtedly risen in prominence since the onset of the conflict. We assess that the group alters its target selection based on geopolitical developments; it also selects targets for other pro-Russia hacking groups. As per our previous assessment, it remains highly likely that pro-Russia cyber attacks will occur after Western governments make public announcements in support of Ukraine, such as the EU’s recent decision to adopt a resolution designating Russia as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’.
Ukrainian intelligence agencies have continually warned that large-scale cyber attacks against critical infrastructure in Ukraine and its allies, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, are likely in the coming months. LNG terminals have been identified as credible targets by pro-Russia actors. However, future attacks are unlikely to be particularly sophisticated and will therefore have minimal impact on targets both within Ukraine and externally.
In the past week, pro-Ukraine cyber threat actors and hacktivist groups such as Team OneFist and the IT Army of Ukraine continued to draw attention to cyber campaigns and operations targeting local authorities, critical infrastructure and private entities associated with the Russian government. The alleged attacks included web defacement campaigns and likely DDoS attacks aimed at countering Russian propaganda, undermining public faith in the Russian government and disrupting financial digital infrastructure.
Anonymous reportedly resumed pro-Ukraine cyber campaigns against Russian local government and cultural targets. This represents a shift in a trend observed in recent weeks in which the Anonymous collective has merged its cyber campaigns to target both Iran and Russia. Nevertheless, statements by Voltage indicate that Team OneFist is currently conducting or planning to conduct cyber operations targeting the Iranian government. This highlights the ongoing trend involving pro-Kyiv groups harbouring both anti-Iran and anti-Russia objectives; it also comes despite the present focus of Team OneFist in supporting the IT Army of Ukraine via cyber attacks against targets linked to the Kremlin.
Nov. 29
• Over the last 24-48 hours, Russian forces have likely made marginal gains south of Bakhmut, though the scale of advances has yet to be confirmed amid the absence of firm evidence. Numerous Russian sources claimed on 28 November that regular Russian and Wagner forces had broken through Ukrainian defences and are currently conducting clearing operations in several villages south of Bakhmut. In particular, Russian forces claim to have taken Kurdyumivka, 8 miles (13km), Andriivka, 6 miles (9km), and Klishchiivka, 4 miles (7km) southwest of Bakhmut respectively. If true, this would represent the most significant Russian advance along the Bakhmut line in months. Subsequently, numerous Russian milbloggers claimed that the encirclement of Bakhmut is imminent given other claimed advances to Pidhorodne, a village less than 3 miles (4km) northeast of Bakhmut.
• Notably, the Ukrainian General Staff’s morning report on 29 November did not state that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks around Bakhmut, potentially indicating that Russian forces have indeed made progress around the town. Such advances would represent a notable development given the static nature of the Bakhmut axis in recent months, but an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut is unlikely and would likely require a series of Ukrainian withdrawals from heavily defended areas inside the town.
• Russian offensive operations have continued further southwest of Donetsk city. Russian sources have in particular claimed incremental progress in recent days around Avdiivka, around five miles (8km) north of Donetsk city. Again, however, we cannot confirm even incremental progress at present.
• Along the Oskil-Kreminna axis further north, the pattern of military activity over the last 24-48 hours has remained broadly on-trend. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources have claimed that either side is launching limited offensive and counter-offensive operations, the former northwest of Svatove, and the latter west of Kreminna. However, neither side are likely to have made progress in recent days as both sides are waiting for better ground conditions to launch more determined attacks in the weeks ahead.
• Developments along the southern Kherson frontline remain similarly on-trend with patterns we have been following in recent days. Russian bombardments of Kherson city have continued, as have Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across southern Kherson oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff did report this morning, however, that Russian occupation forces are stepping up security across the southern axis, including replacing some Russian combat units with Rosgvardia National Guard. Indeed, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov stated yesterday, 28 November, that Chechen Rosgvardia units are conducting various law enforcement activities across southern Kherson and western Zaporizhzhia oblast, including document checks, raids against saboteurs and investigations to uncover weapons caches in civilian areas.
• On 28 November, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) reported that Moscow is deliberately spreading reports and speculation that Belarus is preparing an offensive against northern Ukraine. We have frequently reported that military movements in Belarus and reporting on preparations for a renewed offensive are likely primarily part of Russian information and psychological operations, rather than a genuine threat to open up a new front along the northern border.
• Reports emerged yesterday, 28 November, that Russia has transferred large numbers of military equipment towards Brest in recent days, including 15 Tor-M2 air defence systems. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff reported on 28 November that unspecified Russian units are soon to be transferred from Belarus to other unspecified areas to ‘acquire combat capabilities’. These reports likely indicate that unit rotations through Belarus are primarily aimed at training Russian forces and easing the burden on Russian military bases, rather than indicators of the building of an offensive strike force. This morning, 29 November, the Ukrainian General Staff once again reiterated that it has seen no indications of the formation of new enemy offensive groupings, supporting our assessment.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• On 28 November, the US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith stated that Washington does not consider it necessary to recognise Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism at present. Smith emphasised that such a designation could prove counterproductive and jeopardise aid and grain exports from Ukraine. Smith’s clarification of Washington’s position comes after the European Parliament and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly recognised Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism on 23 November. Russia’s response to the European Parliament vote remained relatively limited to symbolic retaliation, with a denial-of-service cyber attack briefly taking the parliament’s website offline and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin sending a bloody sledgehammer in response. This likely reflects the fact that the vote was advisory in nature. The refusal of many EU and NATO national governments to recognise Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism likely reflects attempts to limit escalation and keep back channels open for negotiations. For further analysis of US-Russian de-escalation processes, see the Forecast below.
• The United Nations described the humanitarian situation in southern Ukraine as ‘critical’ and ‘dire’ during a visit to Mykolaiv and Kherson on 28 November. Increased Russian shelling of Kherson city is driving evacuations of refugees to Mykolaiv, where almost a quarter of a m people are currently without heat, water and power. On 28 November, Russian forces struck the Mykolaivvodokanal pumping station, which severely compromised water supplies to Mykolaiv. This is just the latest indication that Russian forces are trying to engineer a new refugee wave as millions of Ukrainians face an extremely hard winter without basic services like heat and water.
• Ukrenergo confirmed this morning, 29 November, that Ukraine’s electricity deficit is currently still around 30 percent, meaning rolling blackouts will continue nationwide. Nevertheless, leading energy company YASNO reported this morning that 53.3 percent of Ukraine’s damaged heating facilities have now been restored – but the threat of further waves of attacks will inevitably threaten to take these systems back offline in the weeks ahead. Later today, a meeting of NATO foreign ministers will take place in Bucharest, where US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is expected to announce ‘substantial’ financial aid to Ukraine. While Washington has yet to provide details on the newest round of aid, the US is currently working with NATO allies on ramping up assistance for the Ukrainian energy system, which will aim at improving resiliency over the winter.
FORECAST
The US State Department confirmed on 28 November that Russia had unilaterally postponed a planned meeting to discuss the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) which was scheduled to take place today in Cairo. No reason was given for the postponement, but the Kremlin has stated it will propose new dates for the meeting. New START is the only remaining agreement limiting the nuclear stockpiles of the US and Russia. The talks to restart weapons inspections (which have been suspended since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020) were seen as a positive example of nuclear cooperation and de-escalation amid heightened nuclear rhetoric. But Moscow’s decision to postpone the talks speaks to enduring tensions that can yet undermine diplomatic efforts to de-escalate.
Similarly, unnamed US officials cited by Reuters on 28 November reported that a deconfliction line between the US and Russian militaries has been used only once since the February invasion. The deconfliction line was established in March to create a direct connection between the US military’s European Command and Russia’s National Defence Management Centre, the command and control centre for the Russian Armed Forces, to prevent miscalculation, military incidents and escalation. While the anonymous officials did not elaborate on what triggered the call, they did claim that the US did not use the line during the Przewodow missile incident earlier this month. However, there is no indication to suggest that Moscow’s postponement of the new START talks would also jeopardise other established back channels and deconfliction processes. The recent meeting between Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) head Sergei Naryshkin and the head of the CIA William Burns in Ankara is indicative that both sides are keeping dialogue options open.
Nov. 28
• Poor weather conditions across Ukraine continue to limit offensive and counter-offensive operations for both sides, including along the Oskil-Kreminna line. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 26-27 November that Russian forces are undertaking defensive operations to the north-west of Svatove and to the west of Kreminna. Several reports indicate that Russian forces also conducted offensive operations near Novoselivske, around 11 miles (18km) to the north-west of Svatove. Russian sources claim that Russian troops entered the town, though we cannot presently confirm this. Russian forces also reportedly attacked areas to the north-east of Kupiansk, a city straddling the Oskil river. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk oblast, Serhiy Haidai, claimed on 26 November that Ukrainian forces have progressed along this axis, due partly to the poor state of Russia’s mobilised forces in the area. Earlier on 28 November, Haidai stated that unspecified numbers of Russian troops had been transferred to Luhansk oblast from Kherson.
• Further south, Russian forces continue to make very small incremental gains along the Bakhmut and Donetsk city lines. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are successfully repelling Russian attacks along the entire axis. However, a 27 November report notably excluded any reference to the repelling of attacks against Bakhmut, indicating that Russian forces had possibly made progress in this area. Nevertheless, Kyiv reported earlier on 28 November that attacks against Bakhmut had been successfully repelled.
• On 25 November, the Wagner Group chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, confirmed that he has forbidden Wagner troops from giving interviews on the situation around Bakhmut. This is likely an indication that Russia’s progress around the key town remains slow. Prigozhin notably also claimed that the goal of Wagner is not to take Bakhmut, but to degrade Ukrainian forces and reduce their combat potential. This is another indication that Prigozhin wants to dampen expectations of major breakthroughs and to deflect any criticism over the lack of tangible progress by Russia despite the months of fighting.
• The majority of developments on the southern Kherson axis increasingly point to Russia building new defences; ‘defence-in-depth’ fortifications have materialised along various key ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across southern Kherson and Crimea oblasts. However, the artillery bombardment of Kherson city has stepped up in recent days, precipitating the evacuation of civilians; Ukrainian sources claim to have observed Russian forces bringing multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) and S-300 air defence systems (often used in ground-attack roles) closer towards Kherson.
• A Russian milblogger source claimed that Russian forces conducted a small raid across the Dnieper river against Ukrainian positions near Antonivka on the western (right) bank of the river at the northern end of the Antonivsky bridge. Even though we cannot confirm any details, a serious raid is unlikely to have been attempted. Meanwhile, Natalya Humenyuk, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Operation Command, reported on 28 November that the situation for Ukrainian forces remains ‘very difficult’, including on the Kinburn Spit. We have received no further information regarding the progress of Ukrainian operations on the peninsula.
• Reuters reported on 28 November that the US Department of Defense is considering a proposal by Boeing to supply Ukraine with a new system that can launch small and cheap precision bombs from common rocket systems. The proposed Boeing-SAAB Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) system uses GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs, of which the US retains a large stockpile following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, together with an abundance of M26 rockets. If the proposal is approved, the US could deliver the first GLSDB system as early as Spring 2023. Crucially, the system has a range of around 94 miles (150km), which is further than the current High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Washington DC has repeatedly refused to provide Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of around 185 miles (300km). The GLSDB system would provide Kyiv with an intermediate capability to strike Russian targets deeper behind the frontline. The GLSDB system represents a cost-effective, advanced capability amid growing strains on Western defence stockpiles.
• On 26 November, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported that the Kremlin appointed the Armenian-Russian businessman Armen Sarkisyan (who allegedly has criminal connections in Donetsk oblast) as the new ‘supervisor’ of prisons in Russia and its occupied territories. Through his new role, Sarkisyan apparently intends to establish a new private military company (PMC). Its recruitment model will reportedly focus on hiring prisoners across Russia, reflecting that of the Wagner Group. The GUR claims that this new PMC will counterbalance Yevgeny Prigozhin’s de facto monopoly over PMCs in Russia.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Following the 23 November bombardment, long-range missile strikes targeted infrastructure in Dnipro, Kryvih Rih and Zaporizhzhia over the weekend of 26-27 November. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on 27 November that Russia appears to be preparing for fresh waves of missile strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. He stated that Russia will not stop these attacks until it runs out of missiles. As reported last week, the latest estimates of Russian stockpiles indicate that Moscow has enough missiles for further waves of attacks throughout the winter, with domestic production and the import of Iranian short-range ballistic missiles boosting dwindling reserves.
• Earlier on 28 November, the electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo stated that rolling blackouts will continue to impact regions across the country due to a power deficit of 27 percent. Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, also stated on 28 November that his administration is not ruling out the need to evacuate Kyiv partially in the event of a total breakdown of the energy grid. Contingency plans are being drawn up to relocate ‘certain categories of people’ – likely children, the elderly and other vulnerable individuals – to the suburbs.
• Petro Kotin, the head of Ukraine’s nuclear energy agency Energoatom, reported on 27 November that there were signs Russian forces are possibly preparing to leave the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). While Kotin said that it is likely too early to assess whether the Russians will leave the plant, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated earlier on 28 November that Russian forces are not preparing to do so. On 23 November, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, met with a Russian delegation in Istanbul (Turkey) to discuss the creation of a protection zone around the ZNPP. While it remains unlikely that Russia will willingly abandon the plant, it is possible that an IAEA mission will be allowed to oversee the facility. Moscow will likely only agree to such a mission if the IAEA formally acknowledges Russia’s control of the plant.
• Kyiv launched a new ‘Grain from Ukraine’ scheme on 27 November. The scheme aims to export grain to the Global South, including Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. President Zelensky stated that as many as 60 vessels transporting grain could be sent to regions suffering from food insecurity in the first half of 2023, and that this venture will help supply food to at least five m people by the end of spring 2023. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which facilitates Ukrainian grain exports, was extended by another 120 days on 17 November.
• On 27 November, which is Mother’s Day in Russia, the Russian Feminist Anti-War Resistance group published a petition on Change.org calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The group comprises mothers of Russian conscripts and mobilised servicemen; at the time of writing, the petition has over 4,600 signatures. The announcement came after Russian President Vladimir Putin held a highly choreographed televised meeting on 25 November with mothers of Russian service personnel killed in Ukraine, all of whom appeared to thank Putin for his leadership and to express support for Russia’s ‘special military operation’.
• Meanwhile, the Council of Wives and Mothers announced on 27 November that its VKontakte page was blocked at the request of the Russian Prosecutor’s Office. Earlier this month, activists from the group protested outside the Western Military District headquarters. They demanded a return of Russia’s mobilised forces, as well as peace negotiations with Ukraine. Criticism from mothers and feminist groups has been growing in Russia in recent months; their activism has raised awareness of the poor conditions in which Russian soldiers are operating on the frontline. While Putin’s meeting on 25 November was clearly aimed at mollifying this criticism, the blocking of the Council of Wives and Mothers’ VKontakte page points to the state’s readiness to stymie all related campaigning.
FORECAST
The Ukrainian General Staff reported last week that Russia’s ‘military-political leadership’ had prepared and disseminated a document on the ‘conclusions of the war with NATO in Ukraine’. The document apparently outlines numerous weaknesses within Russia’s military. It also highlights that around five m troops would need to be deployed to win any such war. The General Staff provided no further evidence or details. If it exists, the document would represent a possible attempt by the Kremlin to once again pin the strategic failures of the war on the Russian military while testing the waters for a potential solution, including the transition to a mass conscript army.
Considering the highly chaotic partial mobilisation of around 300,000 reservists and evidence of insufficient training, equipment and basic supplies, the mobilisation of around five m soldiers is unlikely to be achievable in the short to medium term. However, if genuine, the document would support our assessment that Moscow is doubling down on its ‘quantity over quality’ strategy. This strategy likely aims to grind Ukraine down during a war of attrition, during which Moscow hopes Western military support for Kyiv will steadily fade.
The transition to a mass conscript army similar to that of the Soviet Armed Forces would massively exacerbate the existing logistical and morale issues plaguing Russia. It would further risk triggering widespread unrest and a renewed exodus of military aged men. Notably, the Ukrainian General Staff reported on 27 November that preparations were underway in Russia for another wave of covert (rather than overt) mobilisation from 10 December, though no further details were provided. We previously reported on wider speculation in Russia that a second wave of mobilisation will take place either next month or in January 2023, prompting the Kremlin to deny any such discussions. It remains to be seen whether a massive mobilisation drive will take place in the coming weeks and months. However, the Kremlin has not repealed its mobilisation legislation.
Cyber Update
Russia-Ukraine: Moscow-linked threat actor Sandworm’s evolving tactics will sustain heightened ransomware threats to Eastern Europe. Slovak software firm ESET Research Labs attributed recent ransomware attacks against Ukraine-based organisations, first detected on 21 November, to Russian threat group Sandworm (also known as IRIDIUM). Sandworm is believed to be linked with Russia’s military intelligence, namely Unit 74455 of the GRU’s Main Center for Special Technologies (GTsST). According to ESET Research Labs, Sandworm used a new ransomware, named RansomBoggs, to encrypt victims’ files in exchange for ransom. Sandworm previously targeted logistics and transport companies in Ukraine and Poland in October using the Prestige ransomware, sustaining the Russian state-linked cyber threats spreading throughout Eastern Europe and especially to countries strongly supporting Ukraine’s military efforts against Russia. Critical infrastructure in Ukraine and Eastern Europe will likely remain the most at risk from Sandworm’s attacks. Sandworm’s ability to attack a variety of targets, including companies believed to be supporting Ukrainian military efforts, by using different methods and malware, will pose elevated risks to all targeted entities. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Dec 22. Vladimir Putin could use peace talks to restock his army, warns James Cleverly.
Russian president not acting in ‘good faith’, says Foreign Secretary as he tells West to think carefully before entering negotiations
Peace talks with Russian soldiers in Ukraine could just be used by Vladimir Putin to restock his armies before launching another attack, the Foreign Secretary has warned.
In an interview with The Telegraph, James Cleverly revealed concerns that the Russian president could pretend to engage in negotiations while actually training more troops and sending more ammunition.
The Foreign Secretary said those supporting Ukraine had to be “very, very careful” when approaching the topic of peace talks, warning that Putin was not acting in “good faith”.
The firm note of caution contrasts with more upbeat rhetoric from Emmanuel Macron, the French president, who this week chastised those who said Putin’s departure should be a precondition of talks.
Joe Biden, the US president who has been hosting Mr Macron in Washington DC, also said he would talk to Putin if the Russian president agreed to withdraw all troops, as opposed to waiting until such an exit was complete.
In a separate development, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, risked a diplomatic spat by likening Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to Britain’s past rule in Ireland.
On Friday, Ukrainian officials in Kyiv said that seven of the country’s European embassies had been sent “bloody parcels” of animal eyes recently in an apparent campaign of intimidation.
With the war now more than nine months old, there has been public discussion about whether there is any route to peace talks, with differences of opinion emerging among Western leaders.
Speaking to The Telegraph from a Nato summit in Bucharest earlier this week, the Foreign Secretary was asked if there could be substantive peace talks about the Ukraine war in the next year.
Mr Cleverly responded: “It’s really, genuinely, it’s really, really difficult to say. At the moment the atmosphere that I’m picking up here in Nato is that Vladimir Putin has not really been engaging in good faith.
“The message that I’m picking up here – and this very much echoes the message that I’ve been broadcasting here – is that if this isn’t done right, then it isn’t done.
“And the point is that we’ve got to be very, very careful if ‘peace’ talks – and I use the word ‘peace’ in inverted commas there – [are] initiated by Vladimir Putin.”
Mr Cleverly said there was a risk “a ceasefire is actually just used by Putin to train up more troops and to produce more ammunition and to refit his damaged armed forces and to rearm his armed forces”.
“Then all that will happen is we’ll see exactly these scenes again, but maybe, what, I don’t know, six, 12, 18 months’ time.”
He added: “The resolution to this needs to be sustainable, it needs to be meaningful, it needs to be real. What we have got to watch out for is a pause being utilised by Russia as just a way of making sure that its next phase of aggression is more effective than this current phase.
“And look, Vladimir Putin has got form on this. Georgia, that was going to be a one-off, wasn’t it? Crimea, that was going to be a one-off, wasn’t it? Eastern Ukraine, that was going to be a one-off. And actually what we saw is they were all building up towards this most latest wave of aggression.”
(Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
02 Dec 22. Russia’s Aircraft Losses More Than Double Ukraine’s: Report.
number of aircraft compared to Ukraine since the start of the war, according to a report from a Dutch-based military blog.
As of Friday, the Kremlin’s military had lost a total of 286 aircraft since Russia’s late-February invasion of Ukraine, reported the open-source military tracking site Oryx. The tally includes combat aircraft, transportation vehicles and drones that have either been destroyed, damaged or captured.
In comparison, Oryx counted that the Ukrainian military had lost 129 aerial vehicles in the same time period.
This photograph taken on November 20, 2022, shows a damaged plane next to others destroyed at the International Airport of Kherson in the outskirts of Kherson, Ukraine. Russia has reportedly lost more than double the number of aircraft compared to Ukraine since the start of the war in February.BULENT KILIC/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Early last month, the U.K. Defense Ministry predicted that Russia was losing its aircraft faster than it could replace it due to its poorly trained air forces. The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valeriy Zlauzhnyi, also predicted at the time that Russia had lost 278 aircraft as of November 3, which was over twice what the Russian military lost during the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989.
Oryx noted that its report is based on “destroyed aerial assets of which photo or videographic evidence or pilot death notices are available,” meaning the total number of aircraft lost is predicted to be significantly higher than Friday’s totals.
Russia also appears to be blowing through a significant amount of its military equipment stocks compared to Ukraine. Oryx reports that while Ukraine has lost over 300 tanks and 200 armored vehicles in the war, Russia has lost over 1,500 tanks since it invaded its western neighbor.
The Kremlin’s army has been largely overwhelmed by Ukrainian troops after severely misjudging its ability to capture the post-Soviet state. One report from British think tank Royal United Services Institute on Friday showed four key assumptions that Russia had banked on before its invasion, according to copies of orders signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Several sources have also reported exceedingly low morale among Putin’s troops, a result of poor training and successful Ukrainian counteroffensives that have forced Russia to withdraw from once-occupied cities. In response, Russia has focused much of its energy in recent weeks targeting civilian infrastructure and knocking out power across Ukraine.
On Friday, Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that targeting civilian infrastructure had “become an unavoidable and inevitable response to Kiev’s provocative attacks against Russia’s civilian infrastructure.” The promise of future missile attacks from Russia, however, prompted Spain to add to Ukraine’s stockpile, according to a tweet from the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
In his nightly address Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said officials have continued to gain “critical” support from several European allies “for the launch of a special tribunal—a tribunal on Russian aggression.”
“London, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and other capitals … We are strengthening our position everywhere, accumulating the support of our partners,” Zelensky said. “I am sure that there will be a tribunal, there will be justice.” (Source: News Now/Newsweek)
02 Dec 22. Germany to send seven additional Gepard tanks to Ukraine.
Germany is preparing to deliver seven Gepard tanks to Ukraine, adding to the 30 air-defence tanks that are already being used to fight against the Russian army, according to a German government website.
According to Spiegel magazine, which first reported the number of additional tanks, the seven Gepards, which were initially destined for the scrap pile, should arrive in Ukraine in Spring 2023 and are currently being repaired by Munich-based arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
The government did not say when it planned to deliver the tanks, which it said have come from manufacturers’ stocks and whose deliveries in some cases depend on repair measures or production still being ongoing.
KMW was not immediately available for comment.
The German government also aims to send more ammunition for the Gepards along with the additional tanks, Spiegel reported.
Supply of ammunition for the Gepard has proven problematic as Switzerland, which has stocks of ammunition, refuses to supply it, citing its neutral status.
Latest Updates
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The government was holding talks with various manufacturers on trying to procure more ammunition and could potentially come to the situation where Switzerland was no longer needed, said a defence ministry spokesperson at a news conference on Friday.
Ukraine has urged its Western partners to supply it with air defence systems and transformers to blunt Russian strikes on its power grid and heating infrastructure since early October.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a security conference in Berlin on Thursday that allies agreed on the urgent need to help Ukraine, including with air defence systems, but it was important that those systems being delivered could operate, including having enough ammunition, spare parts and maintenance. (Source: Reuters)
01 Dec 22. U.S., French Presidents State Support for Ukraine, Global Security. France, the United States, NATO and other partner nations stand firm in support of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s brutal invasion, President Joe Biden said. Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron held a press conference at the White House today. Also in attendance were Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.
France and the United States are strengthening cooperation to defend core international principles of freedom and the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere, Biden said.
The U.S. and France are cooperating on ways to tackle climate change, space activities, as well as military-to-military cooperation, Biden said.
“My administration has built our foreign policy around the strength of our alliance and France is at the very heart of that commitment,” he said.
Biden thanked Macron for welcoming more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees into his country.
In addition, Israel and Lebanon have worked out historic maritime boundaries, thanks in part to Macron’s efforts at brokering the deal, Biden said.
Macron said France supports the Ukrainian armed forces and the civilians who are resisting Russia’s invasion.
The United States has done much to provide security assistance to Ukraine, he said.
With winter approaching, Russia’s targeting of the grid and other infrastructure has made survival for the Ukrainian civilians desperate, Macron said.
NATO is working to support Ukraine as it deals with Russia and the coming wintry conditions, he said.
As far as peace talks go, it should be up to Ukraine to decide when and if they happen, Macron said. (Source: US DoD)
01 Dec 22. US president Joe Biden has said he is “prepared to speak with” Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine if Russia’s leader shows an interest in bringing the nine-month conflict to an end. “I am prepared to speak with Mr Putin if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he is looking for a way to end the war,” Biden said, adding that he would only do so after consulting Nato allies. The remarks, made at a press conference in Washington, DC, during a bilateral summit with French president Emmanuel Macron, mark the furthest Biden has gone in expressing openness to discuss the war with Putin. The US president said he had “no immediate plans” to contact Russia’s leader, adding that he had not seen any indications from Putin that he was willing to bring the war to an end. “He hasn’t done that yet. If that’s the case, in consultation with my French and Nato friends, I’ll be happy to sit down with Putin to see what he has in mind,” Biden said. The comments came as the US hosted Macron on a three-day state visit, the first of the Biden administration and the second for France’s president. Although the two leaders were at pains to cast their countries as staunch and historical allies, tensions between the US and Europe have grown in recent weeks as the war in Ukraine rages on. The conflict has taken a deeper economic toll on Europe than the US by steeply driving up energy prices after Russia severely curtailed natural gas exports needed by households and companies across the EU. Meanwhile, European countries have been stung by Biden’s flagship climate legislation, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, and its $400bn of incentives to fund the transition to green energy. France has been among its loudest critics, arguing that it unfairly skews competition by reserving tax credits and subsidies for US companies, which risks leading to job losses in the EU. Macron on Wednesday called the legislation “super aggressive” against European companies and warned it risked “fragmenting the west” when unity was needed to navigate the fallout from the war. At the press conference, Biden said he “makes no apology” for the sweeping IRA, which includes subsidies for electric cars manufactured in the US and tax credits to promote industries such as renewable energy and batteries. (Source: FT.com)
02 Dec 22. Israeli-manufactured drones documented as being used in Ukraine. Russia’s Forpost drone is actually an IAI Searcher. Since the start of the Russian invasion, several such drones have fallen on Ukrainian soil. In 2009, talks began about a possible drone deal between Israel and Russia, with the purpose of establishing a knowledge base in Russia for the local drone industry. The deal was finalized in 2011 as a G2G agreement, and following Washington’s approval, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) provided Russia with the relevant knowhow, which included drones to be used by the Russia army.
Based on this deal, the IAI drone known in Israel as the Searcher became the Forpost in Russia. No one in the Israeli Ministry of Defense or its US counterpart even dreamed that a decade later, Russia would invade Ukraine. They probably envisioned Russian wars in central Asia, far from Europe.
In 2016, the Americans pulled the plug, and Israel stopped providing Russia with the drones – most likely, since Moscow used these tools during its Crimea invasion in 2014. The first known record of this drone, which fell in Ukraine and remained almost intact, was in 2015.
Fast forward to February 2022, when Russia decided to occupy additional parts of Ukraine, starting a war that is still ongoing. About a month after the Russian invasion, its army released a video of the active Forpost.
In March 2022, another Forpost fell in Ukraine. Another report followed suit in July.
It is important to note that drones, obviously, sometimes fall from the skies due to technical faults, operational errors or interception. These drones accumulate many flight hours, some over areas saturated in anti-drone weapons. (Source: News Now/https://www.israeldefense.co.il/)
02 Dec 22. U.S., France present united front to hold Russia to account on Ukraine.
Summary
• Companies
• Biden condemns Putin’s ‘grasping ambition’
• EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil
• Russia’s Lavrov says U.S., NATO ‘directly participating’ in war
The presidents of the United States and France said they would hold Russia to account for its actions in Ukraine and the European Union reached tentative agreement on an oil price cap to squeeze Moscow’s export earnings.
Western powers are trying to rally support for Ukraine, which is reeling from missile and drone attacks targeting power supply, water and heat in its cities just as winter has set in nine months into Russia’s invasion.
Russia meanwhile accused the United States and NATO of playing a direct and dangerous role in the war and said Washington had turned Kyiv into an existential threat for Moscow which it could not ignore.
In a bid to reduce the money available for Moscow’s war effort, the European Union tentatively agreed on Thursday on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil, according to diplomats. The measure would need to be approved by all EU governments in a written procedure by Friday.
U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said in a joint statement after Oval Office talks on Thursday that they were committed to holding Russia to account “for widely documented atrocities and war crimes, committed both by its regular armed forces and by its proxies” in Ukraine.
Biden said Washington and Paris “are facing down Vladimir Putin’s grasping ambition for conquest” and “defending the democratic values and universal human rights.”
Biden told reporters he was prepared to speak with the Russian president “if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war,” but added that Putin “hasn’t done that yet.”
Macron said he would continue to talk to Putin to “try to prevent escalation and to get some very concrete results” such as the safety of nuclear plants.
UKRAINE’S CASUALTIES
There are no political talks underway to end the war, which Russia began on Feb. 24 as a “special military operation” claiming its aim was to disarm its neighbour and root out leaders it characterises as dangerous nationalists.
Ukraine and the West call it an imperialist land grab, which has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers on both sides.
Ukraine’s armed forces have lost somewhere between 10,000 and 13,000 soldiers so far, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told a Ukrainian television network on Thursday.
“We will never urge the Ukrainians to make a compromise which will not be acceptable for them, because they are so brave,” Macron said in Washington.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a video posted on Thursday night, remarked that Dec. 1 was the anniversary of a referendum 31 years ago when Ukraine – then still part of the Soviet Union – voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence.
“Our desire to live freely … will not be broken. Ukrainians will never again be a tiny stone in some empire,” Zelenskiy said.
Hours later in the early hours of Friday, Russian forces shelled a building in the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia, setting it ablaze, city official Anatoly Krutyev said.
ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE
The stakes have increased in recent weeks as Russia intensified a campaign to knock out power, water and heat supplies in Ukrainian cities. Ukraine and the West say the strategy deliberately intends to harm civilians, a war crime.
Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko on Thursday told residents to stock up on water, food and warm clothes in the event of a total blackout.
The attacks on infrastructure are likely to increase the cost to keep Ukraine’s economy going next year by up to $1 bn a month, and aid to the country would need to be “front-loaded”, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva told the Reuters NEXT conference on Thursday.
Russian artillery pounded Ukrainian positions in and around the eastern city of Bakhmut, and the regional capital of Kherson in the south, Ukraine’s General Staff said late on Thursday.
Russian forces, having abandoned the city of Kherson in November, are trying to establish defensive positions and are shelling several towns to the north, it said in a statement.
Reuters could not independently confirm battlefield reports.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking during an annual news conference in Moscow, defended recent missile strikes, saying it was targeting Ukraine’s civil infrastructure to prevent Kyiv from importing Western arms.
He did not explain how such attacks could achieve that aim.
“We disable energy facilities (in Ukraine) that allow you (the West) to pump lethal weapons into Ukraine to kill Russians,” Lavrov said.
“So don’t say that the U.S. and NATO are not participants in this war – you are directly participating.”
In a sign some channels of communication remain open, Russia’s Defence Ministry and the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration said the two countries swapped 50 service personnel on Thursday. (Source: Reuters)
02 Dec 22. Captured documents reveal Russia’s plan to annex Ukraine in ten days and kill Zelensky. Russia planned to seize Ukraine within ten days and kill its leaders, according to new documents apparently signed off by Vladimir Putin. The leaked plans, revealed by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (Rusi), show that Russia aimed to annex the country by August,
Russia intended to capture Ukraine’s airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament as Ukrainian officials either fled or were captured “as a result of the speed of the invasion”. The Kremlin created a “kill list” of Ukrainians that should be killed or suppressed.
According to Rusi, the plan was known to few in Russia’s military and tactical military units did not receive orders to invade until hours before. Officials planned to register the entire population by going door to door, noting if they should be eliminated or whether they were likely to collaborate. Putin also ought to take Ukraine’s energy sector as a whole, potentially using the power to blackout European countries. (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
02 Dec 22. Nearly 10 months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the allies that have backed Kyiv’s war effort are increasingly concerned by the struggle to ramp up ammunition production as the conflict chews through their stockpiles. At stake is not only the west’s ability to continue supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs but also allies’ capacity to show adversaries such as China that they have an industrial base that can produce sufficient weaponry to mount a credible defence against possible attack. “Ukraine has focused us . . . on what really matters,” William LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapons’ buyer, told a recent conference at George Mason University. “What matters is production. Production really matters.” After sending more than $40bn of military support to Ukraine, mostly from existing stocks, Nato members’ defence ministries are discovering that dormant weapons production lines cannot be switched on overnight. Increasing capacity requires investment, which in turn depends on securing long-term production contracts. The US has sent about a third of its stock of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, and a third of its stockpile of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles. But it has little prospect of being able to replace these quickly. “There’s no question that . . . [supplying Ukraine] has put pressure on our defence industrial base,” Colin Kahl, US under-secretary of defence for policy, said last month. The UK has turned to a third party, which it has declined to identify, to restock its depleted stores of NLAW anti-tank missiles. “There are some really hard realities that we have been forced to learn,” James Heappey, armed forces minister, said in October. When France sent six Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine in October, it could only do so by diverting a Danish order for the high-tech artillery. There are two main reasons why western nations are struggling to source fresh military supplies, defence officials and corporate executives said. The first is structural. Since the end of the cold war, these countries have reaped a peace dividend by slashing military spending, downsizing defence industries and moving to lean, “just-in-time” production and low inventories of equipment such as munitions. That is because combating insurgents and terrorists did not require the same kind of heavy weaponry needed in high-intensity land conflicts. Ukraine has up-ended that assumption. During intense fighting in the eastern Donbas region this summer, Russia used more ammunition in two days than the British military has in stock. Under Ukrainian rates of artillery consumption, British stockpiles might last a week and the UK’s European allies are in no better position, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London. “The west has a problem with constrained defence industrial capacity,” said Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian army. “A major industrial expansion programme will be required if the nations of the west are to rebuild the capacity to design, produce and stockpile . . . large quantities of munitions.” The second factor is bureaucratic. Governments say they are committed to bigger defence budgets. Yet, amid so much economic uncertainty, they have been slow to write the multiyear procurement contracts that defence groups need to accelerate production. “It’s a corporate finance problem,” said a senior European defence official. “No company wants to invest in a second factory line to boost production without long-term, contractual certainty. Will Russia still be a threat in five years and, if it’s not, will governments still be buying arms from the companies then?” This lack of certainty holds on both sides of the Atlantic, corporate executives say. Saab, the Swedish defence and aerospace company which makes NLAWs and Gripen fighter jets, says it has been in talks with several governments about new orders but progress on signing contracts has been slow. “When it comes to order intake directly connected to Ukraine . . . very little has really emerged or happened,” said Saab chief executive Micael Johansson. “I am sure it will come . . . but the contracting procedures are still quite slow.” Britain’s BAE Systems also says it is “in talks” with the UK government about ramping up output of a number of munitions, while US defence companies have similar complaints about the lack of a clear “demand signal” from Washington. “They are in a situation of ‘show me the money’,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “What they [the defence companies] are worried about is that they will expand capacity, then the war will end and the defence department will cut the contracts.” Recommended War in Ukraine Nato to step up aid to Ukraine, Stoltenberg says Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, said the Pentagon’s procurement procedures — which give a “very choppy demand signal” to build up stockpiles but only after a conflict rapidly depletes them — are not a model that is “going to make sense” if the aim is sustained investment in production. Some defence manufacturers are already producing at full capacity, with shifts running 24 hours a day. “When we have a clear understanding of what the demand signal is going to be . . . we are willing to fund expansion of capacity,” said Frank St John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, which makes Himar artillery rocket systems and Javelins. Western officials say that supplying Ukraine has not jeopardised their own countries’ military readiness, while Russian military shortages are far worse. Moscow is having to source weapons such as artillery shells and drones from North Korea and Iran. Yet while there is a near-consensus across Nato, especially its European members, of the need to bulk up their militaries and defence industries, companies can only proceed once they have more contractual certainty. “Contracts matter. Money . . . matters,” said the Pentagon’s LaPlante. “Once [defence companies] see that we’re going to put money [into orders] . . . they’ll get it, that’s their job.” (Source: FT.com)
30 Nov 22. NATO seeks to buttress Russia’s neighbours as Moscow attacks Ukraine.
Zelenskiy says Russia planning more strikes
• Summary
• Companies
• Zelenskiy says Russia plans moves in southern Ukraine
• Nine die trying to heat homes after Russia causes blackouts
• EU says to compensate Ukraine with gains on frozen Russia assets
Russia said its forces in eastern Ukraine had edged forward, Kyiv said Moscow was “planning something” in the south and NATO sought on Wednesday to shore up other countries that fear destabilisation from Moscow.
Ukraine’s General Staff said earlier that its troops had repelled six Russian attacks in 24 hours in the eastern Donbas region, while Russian artillery had relentlessly shelled across the Dnipro River, including at Kherson city, in the south. Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, said electricity had been restored to 65% of consumers in Kherson. Russians have been shelling the southern city since they withdrew earlier this month.
Winter weather has hampered fighting on the ground, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has told citizens to expect a major Russian barrage this week on Ukraine’s stricken electricity infrastructure, which Moscow has pounded roughly weekly since early October.
“These are President (Vladimir) Putin’s new targets. He’s hitting them hard,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after NATO talks in Bucharest.
Putin has focused his “fire and ire” on Ukraine’s civilians by bombing more than a third of its energy system supplying power and water, but the strategy will not work, Blinken said.
The U.S.-led military alliance was also concerned about China’s cooperation with Russia, Blinken said.
NATO allies offered on Wednesday to help nearby Moldova, Georgia and Bosnia, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, adding they were all under pressure from Russia.
“If there is one lesson from Ukraine it is that we need to support them now,” Stoltenberg told a news conference. Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu told Reuters, “The beast also wants to take control of the Western Balkans”.
RUSSIA ATTACKS EAST
Zelenskiy said Russian forces were attacking Ukrainian government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces which make up the eastern Donbas, as well as Kharkiv in the northeast, where Ukraine pushed them back in September.
“The situation at the front is difficult,” the president said in his Tuesday night video address.
“Despite extremely large losses, the occupiers are still trying to advance” in the east and “they are planning something in the south,” he said, without elaborating.
A teenager was killed when Russia shelled a hospital in the northern Sumy region and another person was killed and one wounded in Russia’s Kherson shelling, other officials said.
Russia said later its forces had taken full control of three settlements in the Donetsk region – Andriivka, Belogorovka and Pershye Travnya – and destroyed a warehouse in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region containing U.S.-made HIMARS shells.
Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield reports.
NATO ministers meeting for two days in Bucharest pledged both to help Ukrainians cope with what Stoltenberg said was Moscow using winter weather as “a weapon of war” and to help sustain Kyiv’s military campaign.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the outcome showed NATO was “absolutely not interested in a political and diplomatic solution in Ukraine”.
Washington pledged $53 m to buy power grid equipment, and U.S. President Joe Biden said providing more military assistance is a priority. Republicans, who take control of Congress’ House of Representatives in January, have talked about pausing the funding, which has exceeded $18 bn.
ACCUMULATING DAMAGE
In Kyiv, snow fell and temperatures were expected to remain below freezing as millions in and around the capital struggled to heat their homes after attacks on infrastructure that Kyiv and its allies say are aimed at harming civilians, a war crime.
Workers have raced to repair the damage even as they anticipate more. Electricity supplies crept back up towards three-quarters of needs, national grid operator Ukrenergo said, a full week after the worst Russian barrage so far.
In a grim sign of the energy crisis, nine people have been killed in fires over the past 24 hours as Ukrainians resorted to emergency generators, candles and gas cylinders in violation of safety rules to try to heat their homes after power outages, according to the state emergency service.
Russia, which has declared large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine annexed, says Ukrainians can end their suffering by accepting demands it has not spelled out. Ukraine says it will fight until Russia withdraws completely.
“The war will end when we win, or when Russia wants it,” Zelenskiy said in a video interview on Wednesday with the New York Times. “The Russian Federation may only want that when it feels that it is weak, isolated and has no partners.”
The European Union said it aims to use proceeds from investing Russian assets it has frozen to help compensate Ukraine for the damage Moscow has inflicted, and proposed the establishment of a court to try “Russia’s crime of aggression”.
Kyiv welcomed the moves, saying Moscow had no legitimate goals in its invasion of Ukraine, which started in late February and has displaced ms, killed thousands of civilians and left cities, towns and villages in ruins.
Russia says the freezing of assets is theft, and denies that the invasion, which it calls a “special military operation” to disarm its neighbour, constitutes the war crime of aggression. (Source: Reuters)
01 Dec 22. Heaviest Ukraine fighting rages in east, NATO seeks to sustain support against Russia.
• Russian forces attempt eastern push, shell south, Ukraine says
• U.S. missile contract awarded to help Ukraine
• NATO pledges support to Russia’s neighbours
Russian forces tried to advance in eastern Ukraine and trained tank, mortar and artillery fire on Kherson in the south, the Ukrainian military said, as Western allies sought to buttress Ukraine and its neighbours against Moscow.
In Washington, a $1.2bn contract for six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for Ukraine was awarded to Raytheon, the Pentagon said.
Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Wednesday his country needed U.S.-made Patriot missile defence systems to protect its civilian infrastructure, which has been under heavy attack by Russia at the start of winter.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russian President Vladimir Putin had focused “his ire and his fire” on Ukraine’s civilian population and warned Russia that its strategy would fail to divide Ukraine’s supporters.
“Heat, water, electricity … these are President Putin’s new targets. He’s hitting them hard. This brutalisation of Ukraine’s people is barbaric,” Blinken told a news conference in Bucharest following a two-day NATO meeting.
At the NATO foreign ministers meeting, allies on Wednesday pledged to help Moldova, Georgia and Bosnia-Herzegovina as they face pressure from Russia, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and ministers said.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the outcome showed NATO was “absolutely not interested in a political and diplomatic solution in Ukraine”.
Russia invaded Ukraine nine months ago in what it calls a “special military operation” to rid Ukraine of nationalists it considers dangerous. Ukraine and Western allies accuse Russia of an unprovoked, imperialist land grab.
Ukraine ordered all of Kyiv’s embassies abroad to strengthen security after two letter bombs were sent to the Ukrainian ambassador in Madrid and an arms company in Spain that manufactures rocket launchers donated to Ukraine. Spanish police said they were are examining a possible link between the two bombs, one of which injured an embassy security officer.
BATTLEGROUND
In the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, site of the heaviest fighting, Russian forces tried to make further advances and shelled several towns, including Bakhmut and nearby Soledar and Opytne, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a Wednesday night statement.
On the southern front, it said Russian forces took up defensive positions and trained tank, mortar and artillery fire on Ukrainian positions and on the regional capital of Kherson, abandoned by Russian troops earlier in November.
Other battleground activity was reported in northeastern and central Ukraine, the military said.
Reuters was not able to verify battlefield reports.
“We are analysing the intentions of the occupiers and preparing counter-measures – tougher counter-measures than is now the case,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Wednesday evening address.
Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, said electricity had been restored to 65% of consumers in Kherson.
Nearly six m customers in a majority of Ukraine’s regions and in Kyiv had no electricity, Zelenskiy said on Wednesday night.
DRONES
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat said defence forces had shot down 340 of the roughly 400 Iranian drones that Russian had launched during the war.
“We haven’t seen these Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles for about two weeks … the first batch has probably already run out,” he told Ukraine’s main television network.
On the economic front, a deal was close on resuming Russian ammonia exports through a pipeline to a Ukrainian Black Sea port, U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths said.
“I think we’re quite close, we’re edging towards it this week,” Griffiths told a Reuters NEXT event.
A deal aimed at easing global food shortages by helping Ukraine export its agricultural products from Black Sea ports was extended on Nov. 17 for four months, though Russia said its own demands were yet to be fully addressed. The agreement was initially brokered in July by the United Nations with the help of Turkey. (Source: Reuters)
30 Nov 22. Narendra Modi calls on Vladimir Putin to stop weaponising food supplies. The Indian prime minister says geopolitical struggles could ‘lead to humanitarian crises’ and ‘our era need not be one of war’
Narendra Modi has hit out at Vladimir Putin with a call to end the war in Ukraine and stop weaponising food supplies, as India takes over the G20 presidency for the year.
Writing for The Telegraph, the Indian prime minister warned that geopolitical struggles could “lead to humanitarian crises”.
In a thinly veiled swipe at the Russian president, he said: “Our era need not be one of war. Indeed, it must not be one!”
The comments echoed Mr Modi’s previous criticism of Mr Putin. On the sidelines of a summit in Uzbekistan in September, he told the Russian leader that now was “not a time for war”.
India has abstained from condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine at the United Nations as the government balances its ties with Russia and the West.
But the country has shifted its stance slightly as the war intensifies and energy and food shortages pose greater global threats.
In an op-ed on Thursday, Mr Modi said the world’s greatest challenges “can be solved not by fighting each other, but only by acting together”.
Mr Modi did not reference Mr Putin directly, but said the world remained “trapped in the same zero-sum mindset”.
The Indian prime minister said he would use the G20 presidency to seek to “depoliticise the global supply of food, fertilisers and medical products” to avert humanitarian catastrophes.
In what appeared to be an attack on the West, Mr Modi also hit out at the hoarding of vaccines “even as bns remain vulnerable”.
The south Asian country led demands for an intellectual property rights waiver for Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic and accused European nations of preventing poor countries from accessing the jabs.
However, Mr Modi struck a note of optimism as he highlighted the theme of India’s G20 presidency – “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.
He noted India’s wealth of spiritual traditions, in particular, the view that harmony “within us and between us” is “essential for our physical, social and environmental well-being”.
Mr Modi stressed that India was “the fastest growing large economy” after overtaking the UK as the fifth largest economy in September.
“During our G20 Presidency, we shall present India’s experiences, learnings and models as possible templates for others, particularly the developing world,” he said.
He added: “Let us work together to shape a new paradigm – of human-centric globalisation.” (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
30 Nov 22. Russia largely abandons battalion tactical groups in Ukraine as weaknesses revealed. The units have played a major part in Moscow’s military doctrine for the last ten years but ‘has proven unsuccessful’ in Ukraine. Russian forces have largely stopped deploying as battalion tactical groups because the formations have proved ineffective, the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said. In its latest intelligence update on Tuesday, the ministry said that while “the BTG concept has played a major part in Russian military doctrine for the last ten years” it has proven unsuccessful in the kind of high-intensity fighting seen in Ukraine.
A battalion tactical group (BTG) is a temporary formation bringing together troops and equipment from different units to complete particular operational objectives.
The Russian army is believed to have deployed about 115 battalion tactical groups to Ukraine, with each comprising hundreds of troops supported by tanks and artillery.
According to the MoD, the formations are “integrated with a full range of supporting sub-units, including armour, reconnaissance and (in a departure from usual Western practice) artillery”.
But several weaknesses in the concept have been revealed during the “high intensity, large-scale combat” of the war in Ukraine, the ministry said.
They criticised Russia’s distribution of its artillery, saying a lack of concentrated firepower has become a hindrance to the army.
“Decentralised distribution of artillery has not allowed Russia to fully leverage its advantage in numbers of guns; and few BTG commanders have been empowered to flexibly exploit opportunities in the way the BTG model was designed to promote,” the MoD said.
The MoD also singled out the “relatively small allocation of combat infantry” in the system, which “has often proved insufficient”.
The tactical units have been described as “one of the most important determinants of victory” by experts.
“Only these units, in cooperation with other branches of arms and other military services, can perform the full spectrum of defensive and offensive tasks,” the Royal United Services Institute said.
Ukrainian forces have continued to make slow advances on the battlefield in the eastern Luhansk region, pushing toward Russian defense lines set up between two key cities, Governor Serhiy Haidai said.
But the onset of winter was compounding a “difficult” military situation, he added.
The prospect of any peace remains remote. The Kremlin reaffirmed on Tuesday that negotiations could only be possible if Ukraine meets Russian demands. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it’s impossible to hold any talks now because the Ukrainian side strongly rejects them.”
He noted that “political will and readiness to discuss the Russian demands” are needed to conduct negotiations.”
Russia has demanded that Ukraine recognise Crimea as part of Russia and acknowledge other Russian gains. It also has repeated its earlier demands for “demilitarisation” and “denazification,” albeit with less vigour than in the past. (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
30 Nov 22. Support for Putin’s war in Russia has plunged, leaked poll reveals. Just one in four people are now in favour of keeping Moscow’s troops in Ukraine, down from 57 per cent in July. Support for the war in Ukraine has fallen dramatically in Russia, according to a leaked Kremlin poll that piles further pressure on Vladimir Putin.
Just one in four people are now in favour of keeping Russian troops in Ukraine, down from 57 per cent in July.
The findings were published in a report for senior government officials by the Kremlin’s Federal Guard Service, which was obtained by Meduza, an independent investigative news website.
The drop in support comes after Russia ordered tens of thousands of men to be mobilised and sent to the front lines. Mr Putin attempted to calm rising anger last week with a public meeting with the wives of soldiers.
Attrition levels remain high on the front lines as reports continue to surface of poor training and equipment for recently mobilised Russian conscripts.
“People perceived this as something that did not concern them. Now the risks have grown and people want [peace] talks to begin,” said Denis Volkov, the head of the Levada Centre, in response to the falling support among the public.
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, told a televised meeting on Wednesday that military spending on new weapons will rise by 50 per cent starting next year.
Weapons and ammunition factories across the country that have reportedly been working overtime to meet up the growing needs of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
On the battlefield in Ukraine, Russian soldiers have reportedly been fooled by Ukrainian troops into wasting ammunition on fake targets as the Ukrainians have been using dummy HIMARS rocket launchers among other things, according to a recent analysis by the Royal United Services Institute.
Mr Shoigu also said on Wednesday that Russia plans “major construction” at military bases hosting Russian nuclear missiles, including work to accommodate Russia’s newest nuclear-capable weapons.
Meanwhile, desperate Ukrainians are grappling with the aftermath of recent Russian missile attacks that left towns and villages without electricity or heating.
Ukraine’s state emergency service said on Wednesday at least nine people have been reported dead in fires in the past 24 hours as Ukrainians have been ignoring safety rules, trying to heat their homes amid widespread blackouts. On Wednesday, a letter bomb posted to the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid exploded in the hands of an employee. A small explosive device hidden inside an envelope went off at the Ukrainian embassy compound in Madrid on Wednesday afternoon, Oleg Nikolenko, the Ukrainian foreign ministry’s spokesman, said. (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
30 Nov 22. Austin Thanks France For Assisting in Ukraine’s Defense.
The United States is grateful for France’s contribution to Ukraine’s fight to defend itself, said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. “We’re committed to working with you to help keep that support strong.”
Austin hosted an enhanced honor cordon and meeting, welcoming French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu to the Pentagon today.
“Russia has continued its war of choice against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s forces have shown deliberate cruelty, targeting Ukraine’s civilians and civilian infrastructure,” he said.
“Ukrainian citizens and troops have responded with the magnificent defiance that the world now knows so well. And, in the face of Russia’s aggression, NATO is more united and more resolute than ever,” Austin said.
America is proud to have France as it’s oldest ally, he pointed out.
“Our alliance with France isn’t just grounded in our common strategic interests. It’s also rooted in our shared understanding of the importance of diplomacy and in our determination to strengthen the rules-based international order forged at such great cost after World War II,” he said.
The Defense Department is pleased to renew the 2016 statement of intent between the two nation’s militaries, he said.
“This document upholds our commitments to counterterrorism across the globe, from Africa to the Indo-Pacific, and bolsters our cooperation in the space and cyber domains and it builds up our resilience against hybrid threats,” Austin said.
Lecornu said he grew up in Normandy, France, where every June 6, American, British and French veterans would commemorate the D-Day landings of 1944.
France has a duty to remember those who sacrificed to liberate Europe and France has a duty to uphold freedom and democracy around the globe and to be a reliable partner, he said.
Lecornu thanked Austin for helping coordinate Ukraine’s defense planning among NATO partners. (Source: US DoD)
30 Nov 22. UK and Ukraine agree ground-breaking digital trade deal.
The UK and Ukraine agree a new Digital Trade Agreement (DTA) to provide much-needed support for the Ukrainian economy following Russia’s illegal invasion.
• UK and Ukraine agree new Digital Trade Agreement (DTA) to provide much-needed support for Ukrainian economy following Russia’s illegal invasion
• Ukraine’s first ever digital trade deal will support its economy through the current crisis and lay foundations for its recovery and revival
• Deal is the second such agreement for the UK and follows our decision to cut tariffs on all goods from Ukraine to zero under existing UK-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement
The UK and Ukraine will today [Wednesday 30 November] agree a ground-breaking new Digital Trade Agreement (DTA) that will help Ukraine rebuild its economy and support livelihoods following Russia’s illegal invasion.
Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch MP and Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Economy Yulia Svyrydenko will meet in London today to agree the deal. It is the second such trade deal the UK has secured, following the world-leading agreement with Singapore finalised earlier this year.
UK negotiators worked at record pace with their Ukrainian counterparts to deliver a deal after the Ukrainian government highlighted the important role Ukraine’s first ever digitally focused trade agreement could play in bolstering the country’s economy.
Trading digitally is particularly important in the current conflict, where damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and warfare makes it much harder to trade physically. Digital tools and technologies will help Ukrainians access everyday vital goods and services during the war.
For example, there is a critical need for people to be able to use digital solutions to prove they are who they say they are, despite the loss of critical documentation or displacement across borders. The agreement provides a framework for the UK and Ukraine to cooperate to promote compatibility between their respective digital identity systems to help address this.
Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch MP said: “The landmark digital trade deal agreed today between our two countries paves the way for a new era of modern trade between us. This agreement will mean our businesses and governments can collaborate even more and ensure Ukrainians have access to essential goods and services digital trade opens up. This will help protect jobs, livelihoods and families now and in Ukraine’s post-war future.”
First Deputy PM and Minister for Trade and Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said: “This digital trade agreement illustrates that Ukrainian IT companies operating in Ukraine are in demand around the world despite all the challenges of war. The UK-UA Digital Trade Agreement has enshrined core freedoms for trade in digital goods and services. Ukraine believes that an open and free framework for the digital economy is the best investment in future oriented development.”
Ukraine will have guaranteed access to the financial services crucial for reconstruction efforts through the deal’s facilitation of cross-border data flows. It also establishes greater cooperation between the UK and Ukraine on cybersecurity and emerging technologies, helping to keep UK and Ukrainian businesses and people safer.
By streamlining digital border processes, Ukrainian businesses will be able to better access the digitally delivered goods and services they need to succeed. They will also be able to trade more efficiently and cheaply with the UK through electronic transactions, e-signatures, and e-contracts.
As a global leader in digital, the UK is ideally positioned to aid Ukraine’s post-conflict transition to a digital economy, with over two-thirds of our services exports to Ukraine already digitally delivered.
techUK CEO Julian David said: “techUK welcomes today’s agreement in principle on a UK-Ukraine Digital Trade Agreement. It comes at a crucial time for our friends in Ukraine and it will open up new opportunities for cooperation in tech and digital between our two countries. This agreement provides the framework for easy flow of critical goods and services, by ensuring the free flow of data and cybersecurity cooperation. We are committed to working with our members and the UK and Ukrainian governments to make the most of this agreement and support the Ukrainian economy at this difficult time.”
In May this year, the UK removed all tariffs under the existing UK-Ukraine free trade agreement, supporting Ukrainian businesses and producers to export goods and rebuild their economy.
Work is also underway, through the UK-Ukraine Infrastructure Taskforce, to build partnerships between companies from both countries which help repair damaged and destroyed infrastructure including bridges and homes in and around Kyiv. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
29 Nov 22. Russia firing unarmed missiles to deplete Ukraine air defense, says U.S. military official.
Russia is firing unarmed cruise missiles that were designed to carry nuclear warheads at targets in Ukraine to try to deplete Kyiv’s stocks of air defenses, a senior U.S. military official said on Tuesday.
The official, who declined to be named, was asked about a Nov. 26 assessment by Britain’s military intelligence which said that Russia was “likely” removing nuclear warheads from cruise missiles and firing the unarmed munitions into Ukraine.
That intelligence update cited open source imagery showing wreckage of an air-launched cruise missile fired at Ukraine that seemed to have been designed in the 1980s as a nuclear delivery system.
The British defense ministry said a ballast was probably being substituted for the warheads, a system that will still produce damage through the missile’s kinetic energy and unspent fuel.
Asked about the assertion, the U.S. military official told Pentagon reporters: “It’s certainly something that they’re trying to do to mitigate the effects of the air defense systems that the Ukrainians are employing.”
These are the first comments by a U.S. official about the assessment.
The Pentagon has said that Russia’s surge in missile strikes in Ukraine is partly designed to exhaust Kyiv’s supplies of air defenses and finally achieve dominance of the skies above the country.
For that reason, the United States and other allies have focused on providing air defense supplies for Ukraine. That ranges from everything from legacy Soviet-era systems to more modern, Western ones.
A senior U.S. defense official, also speaking on condition of anonymity in Tuesday’s briefing, acknowledged that the Patriot missile defense system was one of the many capabilities being considered to help Kyiv protect against Russian missiles.
The United States has already provided a range of air defense capabilities to Ukraine, including NASAMS air defense systems as well as more than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems and counter-artillery and air surveillance radars. (Source: Reuters)
29 Nov 22. The list prices of Starlink communications devices have nearly doubled in Ukraine, as mobile networks have started failing under Russia’s assault on the country’s electricity grid and increased demand for the SpaceX-manufactured satellite communication device. Starlink terminals, which are made by Elon Musk-owned SpaceX, will increase in price to $700 for new Ukrainian consumers, according to the company’s website. This represents a rise from about $385 earlier this year, screenshots of past pricing data shared by users inside the country show. The consumer cost of the monthly subscription to Starlink has fluctuated recently, dropping from about $100 to $60 on Ukraine’s Independence day on August 24 to “reflect local market conditions”, and will now rise to $75. Prices have also soared in neighbouring Poland, where many Ukrainians source Starlink to avoid problems with domestic mail delivery, but remained the same in Slovakia and most other European countries. Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The small portable devices, which connect to satellites via a book-sized antenna, have provided crucial internet connectivity to the Ukrainian military and civilians in areas with little to no mobile phone networks or broadband coverage. It is unclear if the prices have also changed for the Ukrainian government, which uses a mix of Starlink from various donors, including Musk’s SpaceX, the Polish government and Nato allies and from crowdsourced supporters. In separate, ongoing negotiations between SpaceX and the US Department of Defense, SpaceX had as recently as October asked Washington to pay $4,500 a month for each terminal intended for Ukraine, a person familiar with the situation said. A Pentagon spokesman said the department has been in contact with SpaceX about Starlink but declined to detail the discussions. He said the US and Ukraine have identified satellite communications as a critical capability on the battlefield. Musk turned on connectivity for the satellite-based service within Ukraine days after Russia launched its full-blown invasion on February 24, responding on Twitter to a request by a Ukrainian minister. Since then, Ukrainian military has used Starlink extensively along the frontline, where months of battles have rendered mobile networks unreliable, using vast amounts of high-speed data to communicate with each other, with their bases and to transmit high-resolution drone images. The Ukrainian government is planning to purchase thousands of new Starlinks, prime minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday, and will make their imports tax and duty-free. Civilians in areas taken back from Russian control also often rely on Starlink while Ukrainian mobile network providers restore services. In recent weeks, though, mobile networks in big cities such as Kyiv have also faltered, as Russia has sought to cripple Ukraine’s electricity distribution system. Musk has previously complained that the cost to SpaceX of delivering Starlink services to Ukraine could run as high as $100mn by the end of 2022, after the Financial Times reported that the Ukrainian military faced operational problems in October after discovering the devices didn’t work in areas recently liberated from Russian control. (Source: FT.com)
29 Nov 22. U.S., Allies Work to Supply Ukraine Air Defense Needs. Air defense capabilities remain the absolute priority as Ukraine seeks to stop the Russians from further damaging the civilian infrastructure in the nation, a senior defense official said today.
Russia has been unsuccessful militarily in its unprovoked invasion of neighboring Ukraine and has increasingly turned to targeting civilian infrastructure — particularly Ukraine’s energy grid.
This week’s high temperature in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, is forecast to be 31 degrees Fahrenheit with lows in the teens. The Russian attacks have cut power to millions of Ukrainian civilians and affected water, transportation and much more. “These are horrific attacks to punish the Ukrainian people,” the official said. “As winter approaches, they serve no legitimate military purpose.”
Additionally, the Russian attacks pose a danger to Ukrainian nuclear energy facilities. “The attacks also show Russia’s willingness to increase the risk of a nuclear safety incident, which could have harmful consequences not only in Ukraine, but across the wider region as well,” the official said. “Russia has shown no sign of relenting its attacks on Ukraine civilian infrastructure.”
The official called out Iran for supplying Russia with an alternative source of weapons as Russia’s own supplies diminish. DOD officials said that Iran has supplied drones to Russia that are being used to attack Ukrainian civilian targets.
As Ukraine’s need for air defense grows, United States, allies and partners are sending capabilities to the country and helping train Ukrainian forces on how to use these defense systems. The United States has sent thousands of Stinger air defense systems to Ukraine and has also sent National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems to Ukraine. Two NASAMS are in operation in Ukraine, which have been extremely successful, U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said. More will be delivered to Ukraine as they are built.
The United States has also sent Avenger air defense systems to Kyiv. These systems can be used against a variety of targets, including drones.
“Our allies and partners have stepped up in this area, too,” the official said. Spain, Germany, Sweden and Poland have sent air defense capabilities to Ukraine. “A number of allies and partners have committed Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air … missiles for the NASAMS air defense system that the U.S. has provided,” the official said. The newest U.S. package of aid includes 150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sites to help shoot down unmanned aerial systems.
Winter is coming, and the United States and partners have sent cold weather gear to Ukraine in addition to ms of small arms rounds, artillery and replacement parts for various weapons systems. The U.S. is also sending high-speed anti-radiation missiles, 150 Humvees and more than 100 light tactical vehicles.
To date, the United States has committed more than $19bn in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on February 24. “We will continue to consult closely with Ukraine and coordinate with our allies and partners to provide Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to defend itself against Russian aggression,” the official said. (Source: US DoD)
29 Nov 22. Nato has doubled down on a promise to make Ukraine a member of the western military alliance, while vowing to step up support to Kyiv and help rebuild its energy infrastructure destroyed by Russian attacks. Accusing Russian president Vladimir Putin of aiming to “freeze Ukraine into submission” by targeting its power and heating networks as winter sets in, Nato committed to keep providing support to help Kyiv defend itself and rebuild civilian infrastructure. Foreign ministers from the alliance who met in Bucharest, the Romanian capital where Nato leaders first pledged in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become members of the alliance, said on Tuesday that they “firmly stand behind our commitment” to both countries despite Russia’s military aggression. That initial declaration, despite not being accompanied by a formal admission procedure or any tangible progress, was cited by Moscow as one reason for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February. Putin has accused Nato of seeking to bring the former Soviet state into the alliance in order to station weapons there that could threaten Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, has made membership of Nato — and the EU — cornerstones of his foreign policy. The restatement of Nato’s support came as Ukraine reels from weeks of sustained Russian missile and drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure. The barrages have heavily damaged Ukraine’s power, water and heating networks, leaving vast swaths of the country without basic services as temperatures drop. “President Putin is trying to use winter as a weapon of war,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg told reporters at the Bucharest meeting. “To force Ukrainians to freeze or flee.” The alliance’s foreign ministers also agreed to “continue and further step up political and practical support to Ukraine as it continues to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity and our shared values against Russian aggression, and will maintain our support for as long as necessary”. “Allies will assist Ukraine as it repairs its energy infrastructure and protects its people from missile attacks. We also remain resolute in supporting Ukraine’s long-term efforts on its path of postwar reconstruction and reforms,” their statement continued. Nato’s two-day Bucharest meeting marks an increased focus on long-term reconstruction goals rather than immediate solutions aimed at providing Ukraine with much-needed weaponry. “I think in all of our systems attention is starting to shift more and more to both immediate and medium-term reconstruction, not in terms of shifting away from the immediate and continuing military support,” said an official involved in the talks. “It’s as well as.” (Source: FT.com)
29 Nov 22. Statement by NATO Foreign Ministers Bucharest, 29-30 November 2022. The NATO Invitees associate themselves with this Statement.
1. We are gathered in Bucharest, close to the shores of the Black Sea, at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine threatens Euro-Atlantic peace, security, and prosperity. Russia bears full responsibility for this war, a blatant violation of international law and the principles of the UN Charter. Russia’s aggression, including its persistent and unconscionable attacks on Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure is depriving millions of Ukrainians of basic human services. It has affected global food supplies, and endangered the world’s most vulnerable countries and peoples. Russia’s unacceptable actions, including hybrid activities, energy blackmail, and reckless nuclear rhetoric, undermine the rules-based international order. We stand in solidarity with Poland following the incident of 15 November that led to the tragic loss of life as a result of Russia’s missile attacks against Ukraine. We condemn Russia’s cruelty against Ukraine’s civilian populations and violations and abuses of human rights, such as forcible deportations, torture, and barbaric treatment of women, children, and persons in vulnerable situations. All those responsible for war crimes, including conflict-related sexual violence, must be held accountable. We also condemn all those, including Belarus, who are actively facilitating Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
2. We welcome Foreign Minister Kuleba today, stand in full solidarity with the government and people of Ukraine in their heroic defence of their nation and land, and pay tribute to all those lives lost. We remain steadfast in our commitment to Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. We will never recognise Russia’s illegal annexations, which blatantly violate the UN Charter. We will continue and further step up political and practical support to Ukraine as it continues to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity and our shared values against Russian aggression, and will maintain our support for as long as necessary. In this context, NATO will continue to coordinate closely with relevant stakeholders, including international organisations, in particular the EU, as well as like-minded countries. Building on the support provided so far, we will help Ukraine now to strengthen its resilience, protect its people, and counter Russia’s disinformation campaigns and lies. Allies will assist Ukraine as it repairs its energy infrastructure and protects its people from missile attacks. We also remain resolute in supporting Ukraine’s long-term efforts on its path of post-war reconstruction and reforms, so that Ukraine can secure its free and democratic future, modernise its defence sector, strengthen long-term interoperability and deter future aggression. We will continue to strengthen our partnership with Ukraine as it advances its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
3. Finland and Sweden are participating today as states invited to join the Alliance. Their accession will make them safer, NATO stronger, and the Euro-Atlantic area more secure. Their security is of direct importance to the Alliance, including during the accession process.
4. Recalling that the Western Balkans and the Black Sea regions are of strategic importance for the Alliance, we welcome our meeting with the Foreign Ministers of NATO partners Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and the Republic of Moldova, as NATO strengthens its tailored support to building their integrity and resilience, developing capabilities, and upholding their political independence. We firmly stand behind our commitment to the Alliance’s Open Door policy. We reaffirm the decisions we took at the 2008 Bucharest Summit and all subsequent decisions with respect to Georgia and Ukraine.
5. NATO is a defensive Alliance. NATO will continue to protect our populations and defend every inch of Allied territory at all times. We will do so in line with our 360-degree approach and against all threats and challenges. We condemn terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and stand in solidarity with Türkiye in grieving the loss of life after the recent horrific terrorist attacks. We face threats and challenges from authoritarian actors and strategic competitors from all strategic directions. In light of the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades and in line with the Strategic Concept, we are implementing a new baseline for our deterrence and defence posture by significantly strengthening it and further developing the full range of robust, combat-ready forces and capabilities. All these steps will substantially strengthen NATO’s deterrence and forward defences. We remain committed to prepare for, deter, and defend against hostile attacks on Allies’ critical infrastructure. Any attack against Allies will be met with a united and determined response. We stand together in unity and solidarity and reaffirm the enduring transatlantic bond between our nations. We will continue to strive for peace, security and stability in the whole of the Euro-Atlantic area.
29 Nov 22. Foreign Secretary to discuss strengthening NATO’s long-term resilience at Foreign Ministers meeting
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will this week reiterate the importance of enhancing support to Ukraine with NATO allies.
• Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will reaffirm the importance of enhancing support for Ukraine against Russian aggression with NATO Allies.
• The Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary’s recent visits to Ukraine underscore UK’s resolve to support the Ukrainian people.
• The Foreign Secretary will also attend the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe Ministerial Council in Lodz, Poland.
The Foreign Secretary will discuss how the Alliance will strengthen its support for Ukraine and enhance its long-term resilience at NATO’s Foreign Ministers meeting, which takes place in Bucharest, Romania this week (Tuesday 29 and Wednesday 30 November).
Ukraine will be top of the agenda when the Alliance meets, with NATO’s Foreign Ministers set to hold discussions on how best to continue supporting Ukraine as the war enters winter.
The Alliance will also discuss its long-term objectives for enhancing its defences. Finland and Sweden will join their first Foreign Ministerial meeting as NATO invitees, ahead of their accession to the Alliance. Their membership will make Europe safer and grow NATO to 32 countries.
The UK and the Alliance will also be focused on solidifying their support to partner countries where Russia is exerting its destabilising influence. Moldova is joining the meeting at Foreign Minister level for the first time in history. The Foreign Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia will also be present to discuss their ongoing cooperation with NATO.
The meeting will build on discussions at NATO’s Madrid summit earlier in the year, where allies agreed that China is a challenge that requires NATO to build a global perspective. Today’s meeting in Bucharest will look to operationalise the decisions taken by leaders in Madrid and look ahead to next year’s Vilnius Summit.
While in Bucharest, the Foreign Secretary will meet a range of partners, including both the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of NATO host Romania.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “With Russia’s war disrupting peace in Europe it’s vital that NATO and its Allies look closely at how we shore up our defences to handle the challenges we face today.
We are united in the long-term objective of supporting Ukraine and further strengthening NATO as a defensive alliance. The UK and its Allies will continue to show collective strength in dealing with the complex issues the world faces today, as we are doing in Bucharest today.”
Following his visit to NATO, the Foreign Secretary will be in Lodz, Poland for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Ministerial Council (OSCE) on Thursday 1 December. The UK is steadfast in its support for the OSCE and its principles, and its efforts to continue an OSCE presence in Ukraine in the face of Russian pressure.
Russia, which as a participating State of the OSCE has freely signed up to its body of commitments, continues to frustrate its work by weaponising the consensus principle. Host Poland has restricted Russia from attending due to its illegal invasion of Ukraine.
The Foreign Secretary will condemn Russia’s actions and reaffirm that the UK will continue to take action to further isolate Russia for its actions destabilising Europe. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
29 Nov 22. Milrem Robotics to deliver 14 THeMIS UGVs to Ukraine in cooperation with KMW. The leading European robotics and autonomous systems developer, Milrem Robotics, and the German defence company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) have signed a contract to deliver 14 THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) to Ukraine.
Of the 14 vehicles, seven will be configured for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and are scheduled to be delivered by the end of this year. The other seven, to be delivered in the second quarter of 2023, will be configured for route clearance with payloads from the French defence manufacturer CNIM Systèmes Industriels.
The effort is being funded by the German Ministry of Defence.
“Casualty evacuation and route clearance are two labour-intensive activities that require the engagement of several people who remain in constant threat of enemy fire. Automating these tasks with unmanned vehicles alleviates that danger and allows more soldiers to stay in a safe area or be tasked for more important activities,” explained Captain (res) Jüri Pajuste, Defence R&D Director at Milrem Robotics.
Milrem Robotics delivered one CASEVAC THeMIS to a Ukrainian charitable organization earlier this year that has proven to be a valuable asset.
“The deployment of the THEMIS UGV to Ukraine means that the Ukrainian forces can increase the safety of their soldiers and let the UGVs handle tasks that are an immediate threat to humans. That is the ultimate purpose of robotic systems. Milrem Robotics is proud to be able to contribute to Ukraine’s fight against the aggressor,” said Kuldar Väärsi, CEO of Milrem Robotics.
“This important project gives evidence of our common ability to provide advanced technology to Ukraine. We are determined to support Ukraine with protective and lifesaving equipment. The fast delivery of 14 THeMIS UGVs proves that KMW and Milrem are partners you can rely on,” said Ralf Ketzel, CEO of KMW.
THeMIS is a multi-mission unmanned ground vehicle with an open architecture that enables it to be rapidly configured from having a transport function to being weaponized, performing ordnance disposal or supporting intelligence operations according to the nature of the mission. The THeMIS UGV is already part of different programs in 16 countries, including eight NATO members: Estonia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the UK, and the US.
28 Nov 22. Poland wants to divert pledged German air defenses to Ukraine. Poland’s Ministry of National Defence has effectively turned down Germany’s offer, for now, to deploy air defense systems along the neighbor’s border with Ukraine.
Officials here initially initially accepted Berlin’s gesture for Patriot launchers following a recent missile strike on Polish soil that killed two men. However, in an unexpected U-turn, Warsaw now suggests that Berlin deliver the systems to Ukraine instead to bolster that country’s defenses against Russia.
“After further missile attacks [by Russia], I have asked the [German] side to transfer and deploy the proposed Patriot batteries along the western border [of Ukraine]. This will allow to protect [Ukraine] from further casualties and blackout and enhance security along our eastern border,” Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak tweeted last week.
Two days earlier, the official said in a tweet he will propose to his German counterpart, Christine Lambrecht, “to deploy this system close to the border with Ukraine”. The initial positive response came shortly after Berlin offered to send the country’s Patriots and Eurofighter Typhoon jets to help safeguard Polish airspace.
For some observers in Poland, Błaszczak’s latest declaration represents a way of rejecting Lambrecht’s offer, as it would involve Germany sending its troops, who are to operate the launchers, to Ukraine amid the nation’s ongoing war with Russia. Berlin has supported Kyiv with weapons and military gear, but, like all other NATO member states, it has also kept its armed forces away from direct involvement in the conflict. Compliance with Poland’s proposal would force Germany to cross that line.
Lambrecht has replied to Błaszczak’s proposal by saying the offered Patriots are part of NATO’s integrated air-defense system, and their potential deployment outside the alliance’s territory would need to be agreed with NATO and its member states.
Meanwhile, the latest development has also exposed differences within the country’s ruling Law and Justice party.
On Nov. 25, Polish President Andrzej Duda, who was re-elected in 2020 with the party’s support, tweeted that if Germany “does not agree to deliver the batteries to Ukraine, then we must accept this defense here” in Poland. Duda’s statement could signal that some decision-makers in Warsaw are willing to reach an understanding with Berlin.
The fatal missile strike occurred in Poland’s southeast on Nov. 15 after Russia launched its largest string of attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month. The Polish authorities believe the incident was most likely triggered by Ukraine’s air-defense attempting to intercept a missile fired by Russia’s armed forces. (Source: Defense News)
28 Nov 22. Warship carrying Kalibr missiles deployed to Black Sea as Russia ‘prepares fresh attacks.’ A Russian warship capable of firing cruise missiles had recently deployed to the Black Sea with Kalibr-type missiles on board, according to the Ukrainian army.
Natalia Gumeniuk, spokeswoman for the Ukrainian military, said it indicates preparations are underway for Russia to launch a fresh wave of missiles attacks on its energy grid.
“It’s quite likely that the beginning of the week will be marked by such an attack,” she added.
With temperatures dipping below zero, repeated Russian attacks have left Ukraine’s energy grid teetering on the brink of collapse, and disrupted power and water supplies to ms over recent weeks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned “the upcoming week can be as hard as the one that passed” as Russia prepares to launch new strikes.
In the capital, Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged people to stockpile food, clothes and other essential items amid the possibility of the blackouts getting worse.
He said that part of the city’s three m people might also have to be evacuated to places where essential services would be less prone to shutdowns caused by missile attacks. (Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)
23 Nov 22. Ukrainian Drone Shows Giant Tank Graveyard in Russia. The Ukrainian military released drone footage they claim shows the giant graveyard of Russian combat vehicles in Russia’s Belgorod region.
A Ukrainian Leleka-100 surveillance drone filmed hundreds of burned-out combat vehicles at the Russian army facility located near the Ukrainian border.
Drone footage shows hundreds of main battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers, infantry fighting vehicles and even air defense systems which were damaged in the war in Ukraine.
The Russian Army created this facility to refit and refurbish broken combat vehicles. The base is located in the Belgorod region in the city of Biryuch. It is 7 kilometers from the border with the Kharkiv region.
Russia struggles to repair the thousands of broken military vehicles that have been damaged in the Kremlin’s bloody war in Ukraine.
According to a statement from the team of researchers at the Oryx blog, Russia had lost over 8,000 vehicles including 1505 tanks and 1757 infantry fighting vehicles. (Source: UAS VISION/Defence Blog)
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