NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Ukraine Conflict Update – March 27

Military and hard security developments

On 26 March, UK intelligence noted that Russian forces appear to be “concentrating their efforts to attempt the encirclement of Ukrainian forces directly facing separatist regions in the east of the country”. These forces are believed to be approaching from Kharkiv in the North and Mariupol in the South. This development follows the Russian Defence Ministry’s 25 March claim that it had “mostly” completed the “first stage of the operation” in Ukraine and will now proceed with securing the country’s Donbas region (see Sibylline Ukraine Update).
Eastern Ukraine a solution? Reports suggest that given the change of strategy that Russia may settle for a newly enlarged Donbas area which includes Crimea with Kharson being the capital. Fighting still rages around Kherson which, in spite of reports, remains in Russian hands. At least 250,000 Russian troops will be required in the new area. Referenda have been agreed for the two Donbas areas. Kharkiv remains a problem for Russia where the advance has stalled completely and one commander reported to have shot himself. The general advance from the Donbas area is very slow but may improve now the weather is warming up and better dross-country mobility allowed. Fighting around Kyiv has stalled with Russian troops reported to be digging in.
More supplies need for Ukraine. The Ukraine government has asked for more larger systems such as SAM Missiles, ammunition, aircraft and tanks which NATO nations seem reluctant to give them with France and Hungary being particularly obstructive. The flow of current ATGW missiles such as Javelin and NLAW has slowed with the much vaunted $800m of US aid yet to arrive. There is an airfield in Slovakia just 90 metres from the Ukraine border which could be used a s a transit point for any MIG-29 aircraft from Poland in particular.
Fighting has restarted in Nagorno Karbach with suggestions that Azerbaijan wants to finish off the attacks against Armenia positions started in 2020.
Sanctions released as part of the deal? Suggestions abound that the release of Russian Sanctions could form part of any peace deal with China mooted as a possible power broker. The EU has already spent $18bn on gas since the war began, contributing to Russia’s war coffers.
Despite Russia’s strategic refocus on the Donbas, the region still remains highly contested, with Ukraine’s Defence Ministry claiming late on 26 March that Ukrainian force had retaken the northeast town of Trostianets. The town, which is 59km south of Sumy, was one of the first Ukrainian towns to be captured by Moscow during this conflict and its recapture, as such, constitutes one of the Ukrainian forces’ most notable gains since the start of their counteroffensives across the country. While this victory will likely encourage further Ukrainian counterattacks in the coming days, control of the Donbas region is expected to remain highly contested for the foreseeable future.
Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed on 27 March that its forces struck a fuel depot in the Western Ukrainian city of Lviv with “high-precision cruise missiles”. The ministry claimed that these missile strikes hit a fuel depot being used by Ukraine’s Armed Forces and a plant being used to repair anti-aircraft systems, radar stations, and tank sights. This announcement underscores Moscow’s increased targeting of Ukrainian forces’ supply depots and infrastructure in Western Ukraine and is indicative of UK intelligence that Russian forces have continued to rely on air and artillery bombardments to demoralise Ukrainian troops. Moreover, this incident also underscores that while Moscow has indicated a strategic refocus towards the Donbas region, such a shift is unlikely to significantly reduce Russia’s long-range strikes against static military targets in and around Western cities, such as Lviv.
Elsewhere, Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian critical supplies, with an adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry stating on 27 March that Russia has started destroying Ukrainian fuel and food storage depots, meaning the government will now have to disperse these stocks in the near future. However, such a move will likely increase the risk of targeted strikes on civilian and residential areas as Russian forces are unlikely to let up in their strategy of targeting critical stores as the principal means of demoralising defenders inside key cities.
On 26 March, the de facto leader of the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia Anatoly Bibilov confirmed that the region has sent troops to Ukraine to “help protect Russia”. While the numbers involved have not been clarified, the announcement confirms earlier reports of such Ossetian troops travelling to Ukraine amid wider reports of the recruitment of “volunteers” from Syria and Libya to join the fight on the Russian side.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

Turkey’s presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said on 27 March at the Doha International forum that nation-states need to keep communication lines with Moscow open in order to help end the Ukraine conflict. While Kalin said that the international community needs to support Ukraine so that it can defend itself, he went on to say that “the Russian case must be heard, one way or the other”. Kalin’s statement underscores Ankara’s ongoing attempts to balance diplomatic support for Ukraine while not engaging in any provocative activity that could heighten tensions with Moscow. Turkey is unlikely to alter its stance on Russia in the foreseeable future given its heavy reliance on Russian energy and trade. This will likely further its status as a Russian safe haven for sanctions, with reports indicating that “thousands” of Russian citizens have fled to Turkey since the start of the Ukraine conflict.
Ukraine’s military intelligence claimed that the Russian government is aiming to split Ukraine up in a similar fashion to North and South Korea. In a related development, the head of the Luhansk separatist region disclosed on 27 March that his group may hold a referendum “in the near future” to determine whether the region will become a part of Russia. If this goes ahead, it could provide a pattern for other regions’ eventual annexation into the Russian Federation, including not only neighbouring Donetsk but also potentially Kherson oblast in southern Ukraine, where reports have indicated potential plans to proclaim a “People’s Republic”. For further analysis and scenarios for Russia’s occupation of Ukraine and potential partition, see our Situation Update Brief.

Economic/business environment developments

On 27 April, the Ministry of Health reported that more than 500 Ukrainian hospitals have been provided with a Starlink satellite internet station. The ministry noted that these stations will be used by healthcare facilities in the scenario that problems arise with its core network in order to ensure communications remain open in all areas, including those in active hotspots. Ukraine’s growing reliance on Starlink’s systems could open itself up to disruptive Russian cyber attacks aimed at cutting its communication lines. The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the FBI warned on 17 March that they were “aware of possible threats” to US and international satellite communication (SATCOM) networks. Moreover, Western intelligence agencies are currently investigating whether Russian hackers disrupted American communication firm Viasat’s internet services in Ukraine prior to the start of Moscow’s invasion. While there is currently no indication that such cyber attacks have taken place yet, such incidents could not only severely inhibit critical healthcare services but also disrupt the growing number of Ukrainian firms and civilians reliant on Starlink’s services.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereschuk announced on 26 March that an agreement has been reached with Moscow to create 10 humanitarian corridors in order to evacuate citizens from the Ukrainian towns and cities most severely affected by the conflict. Vereschuk went on to say that citizens attempting to flee Mariupol would be required to do so via private cars, with the Russian military reportedly refusing to let buses cross their checkpoints. The Ukrainian government previously refused Russia’s humanitarian corridor offers as they largely led to either Russia or Belarus. Despite this agreement, there will remain a heightened risk posed to evacuees, with Russian forces’ reported firing at evacuation trains leaving Kyiv near Vasylkiv on 24 March.
SOCMINT indicates ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian rear echelon units continue to take place on the P02, P69, M07 circular and H01/P01 in Kyiv. These are likely conducted in order to identify potential Russian fifth columnists/saboteurs, and Ukrainian units conducting these checks are believed to be operating on capture/kill orders. As such, those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution. Finally, there are increasing (unverified) accounts shared on social media of Russian forces firing indiscriminately on private vehicles on westbound routes into Kyiv, highlighting increased desperation on the part of Russian units in the area, but equally highlighting the severe risk to life posed by travelling on westbound routes to and from Kyiv at present.
For routes toward western Ukraine, the P32 westbound from Bila Tserkva currently remains the safest major westbound road out of Kyiv. However, shelling in Vinnytsia, Vasylkiv and Fastiv remains an ongoing threat, and air raid warnings across the length of the P32 – notably in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv – highlights the increasing spread of the conflict into western Ukraine, particularly following the strike against a fuel depot in Lviv on 27 March. Therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes at present.
Russian armour and infantry units continue to be dispersed north and south of the E373 and the E40, and as such these routes remain unsafe. The advance around Kyiv remains largely stalled at the time of writing, with Russian land forces regrouping east of Kyiv. We assess that the southwest of the city remains highly unsafe, and that the areas of Fastiv, Obukhiv and Byshev Airport on the westbound P04 represent viable targets for Russian forces in the event that a serious push to encircle Kyiv begins again.

FORECAST

Last night, 26 March, US President Joe Biden effectively called for the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Poland, marking a notable escalation in the war of words over Ukraine. While the majority of Biden’s speech was in line with expectations, namely criticising Moscow’s invasion and calling for Western unity, Biden also made an unscripted aside when he said, “for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”. Such a statement will undoubtedly play into not only Russian propaganda but more importantly Kremlin paranoia and perceptions that the US intends to implement regime change. Moscow has long framed the war in Ukraine as a proxy conflict with NATO, and anti-West sentiment is growing in the country.

Russian strategic thought maintains that the West, led by the US, is actively prosecuting hybrid war (gibridnaya voyna) against Russia, and has been for many years. According to this school of thought, the West is actively engaged in efforts to ferment colour revolutions and destabilise the state through the activities of NGOs and social media, with regime change an ultimate objective. In this context, Biden’s statement has escalatory potential as it will reaffirm the Kremlin’s perception that the war in Ukraine is an existential conflict for the Putin regime. Indeed, given the potential implications of Biden’s statement, the White House subsequently sought to downplay the comments, with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stating that “we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia or anywhere else”.

While the Kremlin has indicated that Russian operations in Ukraine have now entered a second phase focused on the Donbas, Biden’s statement once again highlights the escalatory potential of the current conflict if Putin and his supporters feel their position is threatened. However, at this stage, there are few indications to suggest that the Kremlin sees an imminent threat to its survival, and we would furthermore anticipate clear warnings and signalling before a major escalation towards CBRN use if the Putin regime felt genuinely threatened. However, this threat will increase as the war drags on and the economic impact of sanctions bites, particularly if Russian forces are unable to regain momentum on the battlefield. (Source: Sibylline)

28 Mar 22. Backlash against Joe Biden over Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ comment. Emmanuel Macron leads international rebukes, while Antony Blinken denies US wants regime change

Joe Biden is facing an international backlash from his own allies after calling for regime change in Russia.

Emmanuel Macron led a chorus of disapproval following the US president’s comments, in which he called Vladimir Putin a “butcher” and insisted the Russian premier “cannot remain in power”.

Downing Street said it was for the Russian people to choose their leader, while Mr Biden’s own secretary of state contradicted the president in an attempt to limit the diplomatic fallout.

The president’s emotional speech in Poland on Saturday put his relationship with Western allies under strain, while fuelling the Kremlin’s claim that Russia is faced with an “existential” threat.

Donald Trump said his successor in the White House was “almost giving” Putin “an incentive” to use nuclear weapons.

A senior US diplomat said Mr Biden had “made a dangerous situation more dangerous” and threatened to “extend the scope and duration” of the conflict.

In his speech, made minutes after Russia had fired missiles at Lviv, 40 miles from the Polish border, Mr Biden said: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

It is seen as the latest in a series of potentially dangerous missteps in recent weeks.

A month before the war, the 79-year-old president suggested Russia would face minimal consequences if it restrained itself to a “minor incursion”.

Mr Biden suggested last week that Nato would respond “in kind” if the Kremlin deployed chemical weapons. He also called Putin a “war criminal” after hurriedly changing his mind during an exchange with a reporter.

At the weekend, he told US troops in Poland that they would witness the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers “when you’re there” – forcing the White House to quickly clarify that American soldiers were not being sent over the border.

Rebuking his US counterpart, Mr Macron, the French president, said on Sunday: “I think we must do everything to avoid the situation getting out of hand. I wouldn’t use these kinds of words because I’m still in talks with President Putin.”

Mr Macron said the “collective goal” was to stop the war “without escalating things”.

He said his duty as French president was not to pursue regime change but to “take the diplomatic path in order first to obtain a ceasefire and then a total withdrawal of troops”.

Gaffes ‘three, four times a day’

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, contradicted his president, telling a press conference in Jerusalem: “As you know, and as you’ve heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia or anywhere else, for that matter. In this case, as in any case, it’s up to the people of the country in question. It’s up to the Russian people.”

The US envoy to Nato suggested that Mr Biden had become emotionally charged after hearing the “heroic stories” of Ukrainian refugees in Poland who had fled “Russia’s brutal war”. Julianne Smith told CNN: “In the moment, I think that was a principled human reaction to the stories that he had heard that day. But no … the US does not have a policy of regime change in Russia. Full stop.”

A Downing Street spokesman said that regime change was not a policy being pursued by Boris Johnson and echoed comments made by Nadhim Zahawi earlier. The Education Secretary said in a television interview that it was “for the Russian people to decide how they are governed”, adding: “I think the Russian people will decide the fate of Putin and his cronies.”

Mr Trump, who is expected to run for the presidency in 2024, said his successor risked provoking Putin into using nuclear weapons.

“When you put him into a corner and you talk the way they’re talking … they’re almost giving him an incentive,” said Mr Biden’s predecessor. The Kremlin’s spokesman last week said that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it faced an “existential threat”, while analysts note that Putin increasingly considers himself to be the embodiment of the Russian state.

Mr Trump said Mr Biden was being forced to apologise “three, four times a day” for gaffes, adding: “We have people that don’t know what they’re doing. And it’s the most dangerous time in the history of our country, in my opinion.”

Mr Biden’s apparent call for regime change appeared to stiffen resolve in Moscow to back Putin.

Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, said: “This is how a weak and sick person behaves – psychiatrists will be able to explain his behaviour better. American citizens should be ashamed of their president.”

In the US, there was a recognition that Mr Biden had made a serious error of judgment.

Richard Haass, an American diplomat who heads the Council on Foreign Relations, said on Twitter:

He also said:

Senator James Risch, the senior Republican on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said: “Most people who don’t deal in the lane of foreign relations don’t realise those nine words that he uttered would cause the kind of eruption that they did. It’s going to cause a huge problem.”

Putin’s invasion continued to stall on Sunday, as his forces lost control of the strategically important town of Trostyanets. Analysts suggested it was among the Ukrainian military’s most significant counter-offensive victory so far. The town, 220 miles east of Kyiv, had been under Kremlin control since March 1.

Ukraine also claimed to have recaptured Husarivka, a village in the Kharkiv region that had been occupied by two Russian battalion tactical groups. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

28 Mar 22. UK delivers NATO supplies and conducts patrols with JEF partners. Ships, aircraft and personnel from six JEF nations resupplied the UK-led NATO Battlegroup in Estonia and conducted freedom of navigation patrols and exercises.

Royal Navy vessels have joined ships, aircraft and personnel from six Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) nations to provide support to NATO and bolster security in the Baltic Sea.

HMS Northumberland and sister ship HMS Richmond joined Danish frigate HDMS Niels Juel and warships from Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for maritime patrols in the strategically important region.

JEF naval vessels escorted Danish and British supply ships as they delivered military vehicles and equipment to resupply the UK-led NATO Battlegroup in Estonia, where troops from the UK and Denmark are serving side by side. The UK recently doubled the number of troops in Estonia as part of wider NATO efforts to strengthen its eastern defences following Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

As well as patrolling and delivering the vital supplies, the warships and aircraft conducted a series of joint exercises to demonstrate and hone their seamless interoperability. Danish F-16s and Swedish Gripen fighter jets rehearsed air defence tactics with the vessels, while one of the UK’s new RAF Poseidon P8A submarine hunter aircraft practiced working with the ships to spot enemy vessels.

Major General Jim Morris DSO, the Commander of the UK Standing Joint Force HQ (SJFHQ) which leads the JEF, said: “Activities such as these in the Baltic Sea are routine business for us and our JEF partners, in one of our principal areas of geographical interest. Given the current level of aggression being displayed by Russia, there has never been a more important time to ensure that freedom of navigation is maintained in the Baltic Sea.”

This region is of vital strategic importance as we seek to ensure stability and freedom of navigation in the Baltic Sea.

The JEF is a UK-led force, comprising 10 nations working together to deliver forces at high readiness, across a range of roles, complementing NATO and European security. The coalition focuses on security in the Baltic Sea region, the High North and the North Atlantic, where its members are located.

In March, the Prime Minister hosted JEF leaders in London for the first ever leader-level summit. At the leaders’ summit, JEF members committed to supporting Ukraine with defensive military aid and ensuring that JEF continued to play a credible role in contributing to defence and deterrence in the region. The meeting followed meetings of Defence Ministers and Chiefs of Defence in February.

The coalition is complementary to NATO’s wider strategic posture which originated from the 2014 NATO summit in Wales. Led by the UK as framework nation, it is agile and responsive, acting flexibly either in smaller groupings or as ten nations communicating with one voice.

Rear Admiral Torben Mikkelson, Chief of the Royal Danish Navy, said: “The current situation calls for increased focus on security of the Baltic Sea and stability of our region. The Danish Navy will, with our partners in the JEF alliance, do our utmost to contribute to that.”

A busy schedule of activity over the coming months and years will see the JEF operating across its core areas of the North Atlantic, High North and Baltic Sea Region, with a particular focus on the upcoming Command Post Exercise Joint Protector later in 2022, followed by the Live Exercise JEF Warrior in 2023. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

27 Mar 22. Zelenskiy demands Western nations give arms to Ukraine, asks if they’re afraid of Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, visibly irritated, demanded that Western nations provide a fraction of the military hardware in their stock piles to his country and asked whether they were afraid of Moscow. Several countries have promised to send anti-armour and anti-aircraft missiles as well as small arms but Zelenskiy said Kyiv was not getting what it needed.

“It is tanks for our state. It is missile defence. It is anti-ship weapons. That is what our partners have, that is what is just gathering dust there,” he said in his now customary late-night video address on Saturday. “This is all not only for the freedom of Ukraine but for the freedom of Europe.”

Ukraine needs just 1% of NATO’s aircraft and 1% of its tanks, he said, adding that it would be impossible to stop Russian attacks on the besieged southern port of Mariupol without enough tanks, armoured vehicles and aircraft.

“We’ve already been waiting 31 days. Who is in charge of the Euro-Atlantic community? Is it really still Moscow, because of intimidation?” he said.

Zelenskiy has repeatedly argued that Russia will seek to expand further into Europe if Ukraine falls. However NATO has rebuffed his calls for a no-fly zone to be established over Ukraine on the grounds that this could provoke a wider war.

DISAPPOINTMENT

Earlier in the day Zelenskiy spoke with Polish President Andrzej Duda and expressed disappointment that Russian-made fighter aircraft in Eastern Europe had not yet been transferred to Ukraine, Zelenskiy’s office said in a statement.

Zelenskiy said Poland and the United States had both stated their readiness to make a decision on the planes. But Washington rejected a surprise offer by Poland to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. base in Germany to be used to replenish Ukraine’s air force.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuri Ignat told Reuters the country’s pilots had trained for years and conducted joint exercises with U.S. pilots precisely because “we understood that there could be such a scenario”.

Ukraine now needs fighter jets such as American F-15s and F-16s to supplement Ukraine’s ageing Soviet-era MiG-29s and Sukhoi planes, he said, in order to overcome Russia’s numerical and technological superiority in the air.

“We are fighting with the equipment of the ’70s and ’80s, they are fighting with the equipment of 2010 and later,” Ignat said.

“We would be grateful for the Soviet-made equipment offered to us by the countries of Central Europe which still have it. But it will not be enough,” he said.

“We would also like to have Western planes, such as F15, F16. We don’t ask for anything more, like the F35,” Ignat added, referring to a more modern model of U.S. combat aircraft. (Source: Reuters)

27 Mar 22. Germany eyes buying missile defence system, Chancellor Scholz says. Germany is considering purchasing a missile defence system to shield against a potential attack from Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said late on Sunday.

“This is certainly one of the issues we are discussing, and for good reason,” he told public broadcaster ARD when asked whether Germany might buy a defence system such as Israel’s Iron Dome.

He did not specify what type of system Berlin was considering.

When asked whether Germany aimed to procure a missile defence system with a longer range than its existing Patriot batteries, Scholz said: “We need to be aware that we have a neighbour who is prepared to use violence to enforce their interests.”

The Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported earlier a missile defence shield for the whole territory of Germany was one of the topics discussed when Scholz met with Eberhard Zorn, Germany’s chief of defence.

Specifically, they spoke about a possible acquisition of the Israeli “Arrow 3” system, the paper said.

The defence ministry declined to comment on the report. Israel’s defence ministry had no immediate comment.

Andreas Schwarz, a member of parliament for Scholz’ Social Democrats who is a budget spokesperson, told the newspaper such a system made sense.

“We must protect ourselves better against the threat from Russia. For this, we need a Germany-wide missile defence shield quickly,” he told the newspaper, adding: “The Israeli Arrow 3 system is a good solution.”

In a landmark speech days after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Scholz announced that Germany would sharply increase its defence spending to more than 2% of its economic output and inject 100bn euros ($110bn) into defence.

Moscow says the goals for what Putin calls a “special military operation” include demilitarising and “denazifying” its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies call this a pretext for an unprovoked invasion.

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the head of parliament’s defence committee, said Germany should consider various options for missile defence, including against high-flying ballistic missiles which enter space for part of their flight.

“Israel produces such a system and it makes sense to not only look into different scenarios but also to potentially buy it as soon as possible,” she told Welt television. ($1 = 0.9107 euros) (Source: Reuters)

28 Mar 22. Ukraine insists on territorial integrity as talks loom.

Summary
Ukraine intelligence chief predicts guerrilla warfare
Russia-backed region signals possible referendum
Blinken says U.S. has no regime change strategy in Russia

With peace talks between Russia and Ukraine set to take place in Turkey this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has insisted on the territorial integrity of his country after earlier suggesting he was ready for a compromise.

Zelenskiy said in a video address to the Ukrainian people late on Sunday that in talks due to take place in Istanbul his government would prioritise the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine.

But in comments made to Russian journalists earlier in the day, Zelenskiy adopted a different tone, saying Ukraine was willing to assume neutral status and compromise over the status of the eastern Donbas region as part of a peace deal.

In the video call that the Kremlin pre-emptively warned Russian media not to report, Zelenskiy said any agreement must be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum.

“Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it,” he added, speaking in Russian.

Even with talks looming, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said Russian President Vladimir Putin was aiming to seize the eastern part of Ukraine.

“In fact, it is an attempt to create North and South Korea in Ukraine,” he said, referring to the division of Korea after World War Two.

Zelenskiy has urged the West to give Ukraine tanks, planes and missiles to help fend off Russian forces.

In a call with Putin on Sunday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan agreed to host the talks and called for a ceasefire and better humanitarian conditions, his office said. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators confirmed that in-person talks would take place. read more

Top American officials sought on Sunday to clarify that the United States does not have a policy of regime change in Russia, after President Joe Biden said at the end of a speech in Poland on Saturday that Putin “cannot remain in power”.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Biden had simply meant Putin could not be “empowered to wage war” against Ukraine or anywhere else. read more

After more than four weeks of conflict, Russia has failed to seize any major Ukrainian city and signalled on Friday it was scaling back its ambitions to focus on securing the Donbas region, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army for the past eight years.

REFERENDUM IDEA DISMISSED

A local leader in the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic said on Sunday the region could soon hold a referendum on joining Russia, just as happened in Crimea after Russia seized the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014.

Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to break with Ukraine and join Russia – a vote that much of the world refused to recognise.

Budanov predicted Ukraine’s army would repel Russian forces by launching a guerrilla warfare offensive.

“Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians, how to survive,” he said.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson also dismissed talk of any referendum in eastern Ukraine.

“All fake referendums in the temporarily occupied territories are null and void and will have no legal validity,” Oleg Nikolenko told Reuters. read more

Moscow says the goals for what Putin calls a “special military operation” include demilitarizing and “denazifying” its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies call this a pretext for unprovoked invasion.

Ukraine has described previous negotiations, some of which have taken place in Russian ally Belarus, as “very difficult”.

The invasion has devastated several Ukrainian cities, caused a major humanitarian crisis and displaced an estimated 10 million people, nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s population.

In his Sunday blessing, Pope Francis called for an end to the “cruel and senseless” conflict.

HUMANITARIAN CORRIDORS

Russia has continued to move additional military units to the Ukraine border and is launching missile and air strikes on Ukrainian forces and military infrastructure, including in the city of Kharkiv, the Ukrainian military said on Sunday night.

Ukraine’s General Staff said on Monday Kyiv defence forces were holding back Russian troops trying to break through from the northeast and northwest and take over key roads and settlements. In the south of the country, Ukrainian forces were focused on defending Krivy Rih, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolayiv.

It said that Ukraine had downed four Russian aircraft, one helicopter, two drones and two cruise missiles over the past 24 hours.

Ukraine raised concerns about the safety of the Russian-occupied defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, the site of the world’s worst civil nuclear accident in 1986.

Russian forces have created a risk of damaging the containment vessel constructed around the station’s wrecked fourth reactor, said Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk. She urged the United Nations to dispatch a mission to assess the risks. read more

The mayor of Slavutych, the town created and built to house the plant’s staff in the aftermath of the 1986 accident, said early on Monday that Russian forces that took over the town at the weekend had now left.

Yuri Fomichev said in an online video post that the troops “completed the work they had set out to do” and were gone. He originally said three people had been killed in clashes.

The United Nations has confirmed 1,119 civilian deaths and 1,790 injuries across Ukraine but says the real toll is likely to be higher. Ukraine said on Sunday 139 children had been killed and more than 205 wounded so far in the conflict. (Source: Reuters)

19 Mar 22. Quilty Analytics Releases Report That Details The Impacts of the Russian-Ukraine Conflict On The Industry. The Russia-Ukraine conflict isn’t sparing the global space economy as tremors of war reverberate around the world.

Satellite imagery is shaping public opinion and highlighting use cases of remote sensing providers in an unprecedented way. While the impact of Russia’s invasion, subsequent sanctions, and geopolitical unrest are weakening parts of the satellite and space ecosystem, it is hastening the growth of others, according to a newly released report by Quilty Analytics, a leading Satellite and Space research and strategic advisory firm.

The 26-page analysis summarizes Russia and Ukraine’s contributions to the space industry and maps out the consequences of disabling these powerhouses of launch activity, engineering, and propulsion. Other findings of the report identify which SATCOM operators, satellite manufacturers, launch providers, and spaceports are poised for increased demand while outlining the potential threats to others.

With Russia’s suspension of Soyuz launches, the West’s severing of ties with Russian launch sites, a surge in awareness of Earth Observation (EO) satellites, and a looming threat of broadband cyberattacks, the Quilty Analytics team examines the fallout of an industry historically immune to geopolitical strife.

“Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine caused a major rift between the U.S. and Russia, but the space industry remained largely insulated from the geopolitical impact of the Kremlin’s overreach. This has not been the case with Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine,” said Quilty Analytics Partner, Chris Quilty. “The diplomatic fallout between Russia and the West left Russia with few retaliatory levers to pull. Space, long considered a sanctuary for international relations, turned into a source of leverage for Russia against the U.S. and Europe.”

Additionally, Quilty Analytics is kicking off their new EO & Geospatial Quarterly Briefing series with a complimentary copy of the firm’s EO industry primer highlighting the latest trends in the EO market. Please select this link to download a complimentary copy of this report.: https://www.quiltyanalytics.com/report-access-page/ (Source: Satnews)

27 Mar 22. Russian defence minister’s fleeting reappearance adds to mystery. Sergei Shoigu, a popular politician who revamped the army, appears isolated as the invasion of Ukraine stalls Sergei Shoigu, at the head of the table, seen holding a meeting with military officials on Saturday. would have been little of note in the two-minute video Russia released on Saturday of Sergei Shoigu discussing procurement — had it not been the first confirmed sighting of Russia’s defence minister in two weeks. The longest-serving minister in the Russian government, Shoigu has been a near-constant presence on television for the past three decades. His absence at a time of war initially sparked rumours of ill health, denied by the Kremlin. Moscow says the defence minister is simply busy. Shoigu “has a lot on, there’s a special military operation and it’s not really the time for media activity”, Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on Thursday. The mystery surrounding the defence minister, one of Russia’s most popular politicians and long a close ally of Putin, has come as the military that has been revamped during his tenure has run into difficulties in Ukraine as the invasion of the country stalls. Analysts have been struck by the degree to which Russia’s operations have deviated from its usual battlefield strategy. It appears not to have set up a unified command structure under a single officer, making it difficult to co-ordinate everything from air support to logistics. “This war does not fit the way that the Russian military trains, prepares and is equipped to fight,” said Mark Galeotti, an honorary professor at University College London who studies the country’s armed forces. “Clearly the initial operation was built on Putin’s bizarre notions about Ukraine that it’s not a real country, not a real people, and therefore the whole edifice will just collapse.” The military failures and Shoigu’s apparent isolation have led some analysts to suggest that Putin may have planned the war with fellow former KGB officers rather than professional military ones. (Source: FT.com)

26 Mar 22. Rockets hit western Ukraine as Biden visits Poland, decries Putin.

Summary
Rockets hit Lviv for apparent first time in month-long war
Biden addresses Europe; meets with Ukrainian ministers, refugees
Putin “cannot remain in power,” Biden says
Ukrainian president urges the West to deliver military aid
Russian forces take town near Chernobyl at second attempt

Rockets struck the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Saturday, signalling a potential new front in Moscow’s invasion as U.S. President Joe Biden decried Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power and sought to steel Europe for a long fight ahead.

Intense fighting raged in several parts of Ukraine, suggesting there will be no swift let-up in the month-old war while Biden framed the fight as part of the historic struggle for democratic freedoms in a major address from Poland as he concluded his European trip aimed at bolstering Western resolve.

“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” Biden said in Warsaw. A White House official later said Biden was not urging regime change but was saying “Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region.” read more

The Kremlin dismissed Biden’s comment, saying it was “not for Biden to decide.”

After more than four weeks of fighting, Russia has failed to seize any major Ukrainian city and the conflict has killed thousands of people, sent nearly 3.8 million abroad and driven more than half of Ukraine’s children from their homes, according to the United Nations.

Moscow signalled on Friday it was scaling back its military ambitions to focus on territory claimed by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Saturday implored the West to speed up military aid.

Four rockets on Saturday hit the outskirts of Lviv, some 60 km (40 miles) from the border with Poland just before Biden delivered his remarks in Warsaw.

The attack appeared to be the first time the western Ukrainian city was struck after so far escaping the heavy bombardment that has devastated other cities closer to Russia. read more

Regional Governor Maksym Kozytskyy said five people had been wounded and residents were told to head to shelters after an initial strike hit mid-afternoon. Reuters witnesses saw black smoke rising from the northeast side of the city and Lviv’s mayor said an oil storage facility had been hit.

Ukrainian officials later reported another strike significantly damaged Lviv’s infrastructure but that so far there were no reported deaths.

Russian forces also seized Slavutych, a town where workers at the nearby defunct Chernobyl nuclear plant live, and three people were killed, Interfax Ukraine news agency quoted the local mayor as saying. read more

Ukrainian staff have continued to work at Chernobyl after the plant was seized by Russian forces, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed alarm about the situation if workers are unable to rotate.

Russian forces also fired at a nuclear research facility in the city of Kharkiv, the Ukrainian parliament said in a Twitter post on Saturday.

In the encircled southern city of Mariupol, Mayor Vadym Boichenko said the situation remained critical, with street fighting in the centre. Mariupol has been devastated by weeks of Russian fire.

UKRAINE KEPT WAITING

A visibly irritated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in his nightly address, again demanded Western nations send military hardware and asked whether they were intimidated by Moscow, saying, “We’ve already been waiting 31 days.”

Zelenskiy also expressed disappointment over the lack of transferred aircraft in a call with Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda on Saturday, Zelenskiy’s office said. Washington had rejected a surprise offer by Poland to transfer Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. base in Germany to replenish Ukraine’s air force.

The United States, which has already pledged billions in aid, will give an additional $100m for field gear and other civilian security assistance for Ukraine’s border guard and police, it announced Saturday.

Zelenskiy earlier compared Mariupol’s devastation to the destruction inflicted on the Syrian city of Aleppo by combined Syrian and Russian forces in Syria’s civil war, speaking to Qatar’s Doha Forum via video link.

He also warned of dire consequence if his country – one of the world’s major grains producers – could not export its foodstuffs and urged energy-producing countries to boost output so Russia cannot use its oil and gas wealth to “blackmail” other nations.

BIDEN IN POLAND

Biden earlier on Saturday sharpened his tone calling Putin a “butcher” after meeting Ukrainian refugees in Poland — a comment the Kremlin was cited by Russia’s TASS news agency as saying would further damage prospects for mending Russian-U.S. ties.

Biden also saw Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov in the Polish capital Warsaw in his first face-to-face meeting with top Ukrainian officials since the start of the war.

Biden’s visit to Poland was his final stop on a trip to Europe that has underscored his opposition to the Russian invasion, his solidarity with Ukraine and his determination to work closely with Western allies to confront the crisis.

“We need to be clear-eyed. This battle will not be won in days or months … We need to steer ourselves for a long fight ahead,” Biden said in his speech. He also urged Europe to accelerate the shift to cleaner renewable energy and wean itself off Russian oil and gas.

Zelenskiy pushed late on Friday for further talks with Russia after its defence ministry said a first phase of its operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would now focus on the Donbass region bordering Russia, where Russian-backed forces have been fighting pro-government forces since 2014.

Reframing Russia’s goals may make it easier for Putin to claim a face-saving victory, analysts said.

Moscow has until now said its goals for what it calls its “special military operation” include demilitarizing and “denazifying” its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies have called that a baseless pretext for an unprovoked invasion.

“It’s a lie,” Biden said. “Russia has strangled democracy — has sought to do so elsewhere, not only in its homeland.”

The United Nations has confirmed 1,104 civilian deaths and 1,754 injuries in Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion but says the real toll is likely higher. Ukraine says 136 children have been killed.

Russia’s defence ministry said 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed and 3,825 wounded, the Interfax news agency reported on Friday. Ukraine says 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. Reuters could not independently verify the claims.

LAID WASTE

Footage from Mariupol, home to 400,000 people before the war, showed destroyed buildings, burnt out vehicles and shell-shocked survivors venturing out for provisions. Residents have buried victims in makeshift graves as the ground thaws.

“It’s scary, I don’t know how we’re going to survive,” an elderly woman resident said, declining to identify herself by name. “We’re lying there, hoping they won’t bomb us. Look at how many dead bodies we’ve buried around the building.”

To the north, battle lines near the capital Kyiv have been frozen for weeks with two main Russian armoured columns stuck northwest and east of the city.

The Russian defence ministry said its troops had seized a dug-in command centre in a Kyiv suburb and captured more than 60 Ukrainian servicemen. Reuters could not immediately verify this.

The general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces on Facebook said Russia’s losses were such that Moscow was conducting “hidden mobilizations” and taking battle tanks out of long-term storage.

A British intelligence report said Russian forces were relying on indiscriminate bombardments rather than risk large-scale ground operations, a tactic the report said could limit Russian military casualties but would harm more civilians in Ukraine. A later report cited a 60% failure rate among such Russian munitions. (Source: Reuters)

27 Mar 22. Ukraine says Russia wants to split nation, calls for more arms.

Summary
Ukraine intelligence chief predicts guerrilla warfare
Zelenskiy appeals for more Western military hardware
Biden says Putin ‘cannot remain in power’
Russia-backed region signals possible referendum
Ukraine, Russia agree on two humanitarian corridors

Russia wants to split Ukraine into two, as happened with North and South Korea, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief said on Sunday, vowing “total” guerrilla warfare to prevent a carve up of the country.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to give Ukraine tanks, planes and missiles to help fend off the Russian forces, which the Kyiv government said were increasingly targeting fuel and food depots.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials continued efforts to soften comments on Saturday from U.S. President Joe Biden, who said in a fiery speech in Poland that Russian leader Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington had no strategy of regime change in Moscow, telling reporters in Jerusalem that Biden had simply meant Putin could not be “empowered to wage war” against Ukraine or anyone else.

After more than four weeks of conflict, Russia has failed to seize any major Ukrainian city and Moscow signalled on Friday it was scaling back its ambitions to focus on securing the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army for the past eight years.

Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to break with Ukraine and join Russia — a vote that much of the world refused to recognise.

“In fact, it is an attempt to create North and South Korea in Ukraine,” Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, said in a statement, referring to the division of Korea after World War Two.

He predicted Ukraine’s army would push back Russian forces.

“In addition, the season of a total Ukrainian guerrilla safari will soon begin. Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians, how to survive,” he said.

HEAVY ARMOUR

Moscow says the goals for what Putin calls a “special military operation” include demilitarising and “denazifying” its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies calls this a pretext for an unprovoked invasion.

The invasion has devastated several Ukrainian cities, caused a major humanitarian crisis and displaced an estimated 10 million people, nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s total population.

In a late-night television address on Saturday, Zelenskiy demanded that Western nations hand over military hardware that was “gathering dust” in stockpiles, saying his nation needed just 1% of NATO’s aircraft and 1% of its tanks.

Western nations have so far given Ukraine anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles as well as small arms and protective equipment, but have not offered any heavy armour or planes.

“We’ve already been waiting 31 days. Who is in charge of the Euro-Atlantic community? Is it really still Moscow, because of intimidation?” Zelenskiy said, suggesting Western leaders were holding back on supplies because they were frightened of Russia.

Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Vadym Denysenko said on Sunday that Russia had started destroying Ukrainian fuel and food storage centres, meaning the government would have to disperse stocks of both in the near future.

Appearing to confirm that, the Russian defence ministry said its missiles had wrecked a fuel deposit on Saturday as well as a military repair plant near the western city of Lviv, just 60 km (40 miles) from the Polish border.

In its latest military assessment, the British Ministry of Defence said Russian forces appeared to be concentrating their efforts on encircling Ukrainian troops directly facing separatist regions in the east.

“The battlefield across northern Ukraine remains largely static with local Ukrainian counterattacks hampering Russian attempts to reorganise their forces,” the ministry said.

HISTORIC STRUGGLE

Biden drew criticism for his improvised remarks during a speech in Warsaw that sought to frame the war as part of a historic struggle for democratic freedoms.

“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” Biden said of Putin. Earlier he called the Russian leader a “butcher”.

Veteran U.S. diplomat Richard Haass, president of American think-tank the Council on Foreign Relations, said on Twitter the comments made “a dangerous situation more dangerous”.

U.S. officials tried to walk back the president’s words, with a White House official saying they were not a call for Putin’s removal, but rather meant that he should not be allowed to exercise power over his neighbours or the region.

U.S Secretary of State Blinken echoed the sentiment. “As you know, and as you have heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia – or anywhere else, for that matter,” he said in Jerusalem.

The United Nations has confirmed 1,104 civilian deaths and 1,754 injuries across Ukraine but says the real toll is likely to be higher. Ukraine said on Sunday 139 children had been killed and more than 205 wounded so far in the conflict.

Ukraine and Russia have agreed two “humanitarian corridors” to evacuate civilians from frontline areas on Sunday, including allowing people to leave by private car from the southern city of Mariupol, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.

The encircled port, which lies between Russian-annexed Crimea and eastern areas held by Russian-backed separatists, has been devastated by weeks of heavy bombardment, forcing thousands of residents to take shelter in basements with scarce water, food, medicine or power.

(Source: Reuters)

26 Mar 22. In an address to Qatar’s Doha Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy compared the devastation in Mariupol to the destruction inflicted on the Syrian city of Aleppo by combined Syrian and Russian forces in Syria’s civil war.

“They are destroying our ports,” Zelenskiy said, warning of dire consequence if his country – one of the world’s major grains producers – could not export its foodstuffs. “The absence of exports from Ukraine will deal a blow to countries worldwide.”

Speaking via video link, he also called on energy producing countries to increase their output so that Russia cannot use its oil and gas wealth to “blackmail” other nations. read more

BIDEN IN POLAND

Biden saw Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov in the Polish capital Warsaw in his first face-to-face meeting with top Ukrainian officials since the start of the war.

Biden described Putin as a “butcher” after touring a food kitchen for Ukrainian refugees.

“We are waiting for President Biden to close the sky over Ukraine. Ukrainian warriors can protect our country on the ground, but we can’t close the sky,” said Alla Dyachenko, a chemist from Kyiv who fled to Poland with her daughter.

NATO has ruled out a no-fly zone over Ukraine, fearing it would lead to direct clashes with Russian forces and a Europe-wide escalation.

Russian-backed forces there have been fighting pro-government forces since 2014.

Reframing Russia’s goals may make it easier for Putin to claim a face-saving victory, analysts said. read more

Moscow has until now said its goals for what it calls its “special military operation” include demilitarising and “denazifying” its neighbour. Ukraine and its Western allies have called that a baseless pretext for an unprovoked invasion.

The United Nations has confirmed 1,104 civilian deaths and 1,754 injuries in Ukraine since the invasion but says the real toll is likely higher. Ukraine says 136 children have been killed. read more

LAID WASTE

To the north, battle lines near the capital Kyiv have been frozen for weeks with two main Russian armoured columns stuck northwest and east of the city.

The Russian defence ministry said its troops had seized a dug-in command centre in a Kyiv suburb and captured more than 60 Ukrainian servicemen. Reuters could not immediately verify this.

A British intelligence report said Russian forces were relying on indiscriminate air and artillery bombardments rather than risk large-scale ground operations, a tactic the report said could limit Russian military casualties but would harm more civilians in Ukraine.

(Source: Reuters)

27 Mar 22. Ukraine-Russia latest: Zelensky warns Putin that war is sowing deep anti-Russian hatred.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky angrily warned Moscow that it is sowing a deep hatred for Russia among his people, as constant artillery barrages and aerial bombings are reducing cities to rubble, killing civilians and driving others into shelters, leaving them to scrounge for food and water to survive.

“You are doing everything so that our people themselves leave the Russian language, because the Russian language will now be associated only with you, with your explosions and murders, your crimes,” Mr Zelensky said in an impassioned video address late on Saturday.

Russian rockets struck the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Saturday while US President Joe Biden visited neighbouring Poland, serving as a reminder that Moscow is willing to strike anywhere in Ukraine despite its claim to be focusing its offensive on the country’s east.

Early on Sunday, a chemical smell still lingered in the air as firefighters in Lviv sprayed water on a burnt section of an oil facility hit in the Russian attack.

A security guard at the site, Prokopiv Yaroslav, said he saw three rockets strike and destroy two oil tanks but no one was hurt.

26 Mar 22. Biden warns of ‘long fight ahead’ against Russian aggression US president seeks to cement unity of western allies in response to Moscow’s war on Ukraine President Biden told Andrzej Duda, Poland’s president, that the US would honour Nato’s mutual defence guarantee as a ‘sacred obligation’ © AP Share on twitter (opens new window) Share on facebook (opens new window) Share on linkedin (opens new window) Save James Politi in Warsaw 9 MINUTES AGO 0 Print this page Stay across the latest Ukraine coverage Subscribed US president Joe Biden warned transatlantic democracies to steel themselves for a “long fight ahead” and remain united to stop Russia and its president Vladimir Putin from turning Europe back to its war-torn past. In a speech in Warsaw on Sunday, just over a month after Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden compared the struggle against Moscow’s aggression to the resistance against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. “We must commit now to be in this fight for the long haul. We must remain unified today and tomorrow, and the day after, and for the years and decades to come. It will not be easy,” he said. “There will be cost but it’s a price we have to pay, because the darkness that drives autocracy is no match for the flame of liberty that lights the souls of free people everywhere,” Biden added. His remarks capped a three-day visit to Europe that included a summit with Nato, G7 and EU leaders, as well as a visit to US troops stationed in eastern Poland close to the Ukrainian border. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” he said. “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” he added, referring to Putin. He also warned the Russian president against widening his assault to include Nato members. “Don’t even think about moving on one single inch of Nato territory,” Biden said. Washington and European capitals have already imposed heavy economic sanctions on Moscow and flooded Ukraine with military aid. Russian forces, bogged down and unable to capture key cities, have increasingly resorted to shelling and bombardment of the civilian population. (Source: FT.com)

March 18. Russia Developing More Sophisticated Approach to EW.

At a January 2018 panel discussion hosted by The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Roger McDermott, senior fellow in Eurasian military studies at King’s College in London, spoke to his report, “Russia’s Electronic Warfare Capabilities to 2025: Challenging NATO in the Electromagnetic Spectrum.”

McDermott stressed that while EW capabilities within the Russian military are advancing, their military is not, by that virtue, an inimitable or unconquerable threat. According to McDermott, the importance of the report is to provide a context for discussions and speculation surrounding Russia’s perceived and witnessed military capabilities, particularly their inclusion of EW systems.

McDermott said, “We need to know something about Russia’s efforts to integrate C4ISR, the improvements that they’ve made … and the way that many of these strands of Russian military capability are becoming integrated and feed into one another.”

In understanding how EW systems are being implemented into the Russian military’s strategy and overall capabilities, McDermott said Russian military leaders are treating the Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) as a “potential warfighting domain.”

According to McDermott, “The Russian military, for many years, has regarded the EMS as a battle space. It’s only now that we’re seeing … a closing of the gap between the capabilities, the procurement and their military thinking.” That said, if the EMS is regarded as a domain, “we can’t just strip out the EW capability and look at it separately [from]cyber, SIGINT, air defense,” McDermott said. “[Russia is] using EW with other capabilities to enhance fire control. They’re using it side-by-side with artillery.”

Diving into observations about Russia’s technological advancements within the EW sphere, McDermott said, “They certainly have reached a point … where they do have credible C4ISR capability.” Further, Russia is ensuring its military structure accommodates the need for EW advancements, including enlisting the expertise of “somewhere between 150 and 180 EW specialists” at the tactical level. “They’ve also taken steps to ensure that there’s an EW representation at strategic, operational and tactical levels,” McDermott said.

Michael Kofman, senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), spoke to an incident in Syria in early January, when the Russian military successfully stopped 13 armed drones from reaching its Khmeimim Air Base headquarters (on Syria’s coast approximately 15 miles south of Latakia) and Tartus naval base (approximately 40 miles south of Khmeimim Air Base).

“Throughout their military, they have short-range and medium-range point defenses that their ground forces bring along, and there’s absolutely nothing more effective against a drone,” Kofman said. “They also have a lot of electronic warfare systems … and they’re working on systems that are more specific to counter-drone technology.”

Of the attempted attack on the two Russian bases, McDermott said, “One of the reasons the Russian armed forces, and particularly its leadership, are booming with confidence at this point is because they’re gaining such operational experience.” When considering how the Russian and U.S. militaries differ in their efforts to implement EW capabilities and tackle the challenges of the EMS, McDermott said, “The biggest gap isn’t so much technology, it’s training and how EW is thought about – how it’s exploited. And, that’s the area where it seems that the Russians are making the most progress. It’s the extent to which they’re populating their land [forces]with the systems and with the specialists to engage in this kind of combat.”

According to Kofman, a large obstacle to utilizing and strategizing within the EMS is keeping communications private and “understanding how to reduce the extent to which we’re cooperative in this environment.”

When asked how serious a threat Russia’s EW capabilities may pose to NATO and the U.S. military, McDermott said, “We are by no means attempting to exaggerate the Russian threat, or to say that they have suddenly developed a capability that is a ‘game changer.’” That said, McDermott speculated about the possible outcome of Russian response to future NATO military intervention. “They will build the EW component into their response, and their response will be about making any NATO operation in the Baltic, or elsewhere on NATO’s eastern flank, as difficult, as costly, as complex as possible,” he said. “They will use this [EW] capability to play into the asymmetric advantages that they know they have.”

(Source: JED)

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