NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Ukraine Sept. 12

Military and security developments

09 Sep

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast in eastern Ukraine continues to make rapid gains which are clearly overwhelming Russian positions across a large area. President Zelensky confirmed on 8 September that Balakliya had been liberated, while also claiming that Ukrainian forces had retaken 1000 square kilometres since 1 September. Ukrainian forces have also successfully broken through Russian lines north of Balakliya, either retaking or bypassing other major settlements in a rapid push towards Kupiansk. Unconfirmed footage indicates that Ukrainian forces have retaken Chkalovske, Shevchenkove and Starovirivka, all of which sit along the H-26 highway that runs east towards Kupiansk. The fact that Ukrainian forces are pushing along a major road will enable them to resupply and reinforce their offensive more easily, which will help sustain current operations.
It appears that the initial Ukrainian attack against Balakliya succeeded in breaking through with effective use of an armoured spearhead supported by extensive air defences, which prevented Russian aviation from responding in time to slow the attack. However, Russian commentators have placed the most emphasis on Russian failures, rather than Ukrainian tactical superiority, to explain Ukrainian successes. In particular, Russian milbloggers have reported that second echelon troops across the frontline had already been completely exhausted before the attack, with limited numbers of Rosgvardia National Guard troops putting up very little resistance as a result. Different sources are also claiming that Russian forces abandoned, or were pushed out of, the various settlements taken by Ukrainian forces in the last 24-48 hours.
Russian sources have furthermore confirmed that small units of Ukrainian forces have successfully conducted deep raids at the rear of increasingly disoriented Russian positions, including destroying rear checkpoints and transport columns. This is causing panic in Russian rear areas and has led to widespread criticism of the Russian command for being unprepared for the attack, despite growing evidence of a Ukrainian build-up over the past week. Ukrainian forces are now pushing on to Kupiansk and the Oskil River and are likely to make further gains still in the coming days. For further analysis on the Kharkiv counteroffensive and its implications, see the Forecast below.
The Ukrainian General Staff have reported that Russian authorities are forcibly mobilising military-aged men in Chuhuiv raion, Kharkiv oblast, and sending them to the ‘recruitment centre’ at Vovchansk, close to the Russian border. This is most likely aimed at preventing those same men from supporting the Ukrainian offensive or partisan activity behind the frontline. The Ukrainian General Staff has also alleged that more than 15 cases of desertion were recorded amongst Russian service personnel in Kharkiv, with soldiers allegedly abandoning their uniforms and wearing civilian clothing in a bid to return to Russia. These reports remain unconfirmed, but given the overall picture of Russian panic along the Kharkiv front, instances of desertion are likely.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have also continued along the Kherson frontline, with unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces continue to expand their bridgehead across the Inhulets River following the likely capture of Schaslyve (13km southeast of the Inhulets). Ukrainian reports continue to confirm widespread success at interdicting Russian ground lines of communication across Kherson oblast, with reports also of explosions close to Crimea – indicating continued Ukrainian partisan activity across southern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued launching ground assaults east of Bakhmut and west of Donetsk city over the last 24 hours. Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces have made very little confirmed progress in recent days, though DNR officials claimed on 8 September that their forces have now reached the residential areas of Soledar. Similarly, DNR forces have claimed that they have finished clearing the western edge of Donetsk City airport and are now pushing westwards to the ring road. However, these unconfirmed advances are still being measured in hundreds of metres, if that, and the extremely limited progress made over the last two months contrasts with the rapid gains Ukrainian forces have achieved over the last 48 hours elsewhere.
On 8 September, a Romanian Navy dredger vessel hit a drifting mine in the Black Sea, some 25 nautical miles northeast of Constanta. The vessel was attempting to defuse the mine before it exploded. While no casualties have been reported, the incident reaffirms the dangers associated with sailing in the northwest Black Sea, which commercial and naval vessels will have to navigate for years to come amid demining operations.

Political developments

The European Council has today, 9 September, formally adopted a decision to fully suspend the visa facilitation agreement between the EU and Russia. The decision will formally enter into force on 12 September. The agreement is not a ban on Russian citizens entering the EU, but will increase the visa application fee from EUR 35 to EUR 80, require additional documentary evidence, increase restrictive rules on the issuance of multiple-entry visas and increase processing times. The Kremlin has this morning vowed to take ‘retaliatory measures’, which will likely take the form of reciprocal termination of visa agreements for EU citizens and diplomatic protests. The move follows the Baltic nations’ announcement that their governments will likely restrict the entry of Russian citizens to the three Baltic states within two weeks (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 8 September).

Forecast

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Kharkiv oblast has clearly achieved a significant breakthrough in the last 48 hours, and has placed Russian positions on the western bank of the Oskil River in a precarious position. Open-source intelligence confirms that fighting reached the outskirts of Kupiansk on the evening of 8 September, with fighting now likely ongoing inside the city’s limits. The city sits on the Oskil River and is an important node in Russia’s ground lines of communication between Belgorod and Izyum. Further unconfirmed reports emerging this morning, 9 September, indicate that Ukrainian forces have already reached the Oskil River further south, and have taken Senkove, one of only four river crossings across the Oskil in Kharkiv oblast. Considering the rate of advance over the last 24-48 hours, and the apparent disarray of Russian forces across this axis, Ukrainian forces may be able to take Kupiansk within the next few days. This will ultimately depend on whether Russian forces are able to reorganise their defences and deploy reserves to plug the holes created by Ukrainian raids in depth. If the city falls, this will significantly increase the vulnerability of Russian forces in Izyum to the south, which is likely the ultimate objective of this counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces are therefore likely aiming to envelop Russian forces around Izyum, with the Oskil River to the city’s east a natural barrier that will increase the vulnerability of Russian forces and limit options for rapid reinforcement. Ukrainian forces are likely therefore to increase pressure south of Izyum in the coming days to capitalise on the successes to the north, while also pushing down the Oskil river towards Horokhovatka, the last river crossing north of Izyum. If Ukrainian forces are able to take Horokhovatka, the Russian Izyum pocket will be at severe risk of being cut off. Ultimately, the rapidity with which Ukrainian forces have broken through and thrown Russian defences into disarray has already led to a significant uptick in criticism and scrutiny of Russia’s military command. As previously assessed, institutional weaknesses within the Russian military and enduring shortages of manpower are exacerbating the success of Ukrainian ground operations in Kharkiv, and to a lesser extent in Kherson. If Ukrainian forces are able to sustain their current momentum and envelop Izyum, Russian forces will have suffered their worst military setback in Ukraine since the withdrawal from Kyiv. Such a setback will likely trigger renewed soul searching over the direction of the war and the competence of the Russian high command. Hardliners will likely double down on calls for mobilisation in its aftermath, with the Kremlin facing renewed pressure to abandon the narrative that Russia is fighting a limited ‘special military operation’ and accept the need to transition more openly to a full war footing in order to counter Ukraine’s growing offensive capabilities.

08 Sep

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson oblast continues to make slow but steady progress, with the heaviest ground fighting taking place along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk oblast border region and northwest Kherson near the Mykolaiv oblast border. The Ukrainians have made no confirmed advances over the last 24 hours, with the Ukrainian information blackout continuing to limit confirmation of the current state of the frontline. Nevertheless, the Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed Russian strikes against various villages around Sukhyi Stavok, indicating that the Ukrainians have taken further ground around their bridgehead across the Inhulets River, roughly equidistant between Kherson and Kryvyi Rih. Beyond this, Ukrainian sources on this front remain focused on reporting the growing intensity of long-range strikes against Russian ground lines of communication. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that their forces conducted over 250 fire missions over the 6-7 September.
In Kharkiv oblast Ukrainian forces have secured considerable territorial gains over the last 24 hours. In his nightly address to the nation on 7 September, President Zelensky stated that there has been “good news from the Kharkiv region”. While he did not elaborate on the details, he did state that success in Kharkiv will help Ukrainian efforts across the whole frontline. Despite the continued official information blackout, it is clear from open-source intelligence that Ukrainian forces have succeeded in achieving tactical surprise in eastern Kharkiv oblast. It is likely that Ukrainian forces advanced at least 20km into Russian-held territory on 7 September, with estimates that they have recaptured some 400 square kilometres – a highly significant territorial shift in contrast to the extremely limited gains Russian forces have made over the last two months.
Commentary by Russian milbloggers and other unofficial sources have comprised largely panicked assessments of the Ukrainian counterattack. While this clearly illustrates the surprise Ukrainian forces have managed to achieve over the last 24-48 hours, the panic and shock is also likely confusing the picture on the ground. Many Russians have argued that the scale of the Ukrainian attack means the counteroffensive in Kherson oblast could actually be an elaborate feint. This would be designed to distract from the real counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast – attempting to cut off Russian ground lines of communication running south towards Izyum. This remains unlikely, and as assessed yesterday, the Ukrainian attacks in eastern Kharkiv are more likely highly effective opportunistic assaults exploiting Russian weaknesses (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 7 September). Nevertheless, if Ukrainian forces succeed in unbalancing Russian forces on this axis, they are highly likely to continue pushing.
Following on from our reporting yesterday, the town of Balakliya (70km southeast of Kharkiv) was reportedly surrounded on 7 September, though it remains unclear if it has now fallen to Ukrainian forces. Numerous Russian sources have been highly candid in reporting on the failures of Russian forces that have led to these Ukrainian advances. These include regular Kremlin critic and pro-war hawk Igor Strelkov (real name Girkin). Drawing on his military sources, which are generally assessed to be highly credible, Strelkov claimed that the lack of counterbattery fire, the poorly trained Rosgvardia National Guard units stationed in the second echelon, and the extreme caution of Russian aviation assets significantly undermined the effectiveness of Russian strikes and ability to resist the Ukrainian advance around Balakliya. Such issues have been well documented across the Russian military, and speak to entrenched institutional limitations that will continue to undermine Russian offensive and defensive operations indefinitely.
Ultimately, the level of shock exhibited by Russian commentators indicates that further Ukrainian advances in eastern Kharkiv oblast are likely in the coming days. This will place significant pressure on increasingly vulnerable ground lines of communication running to Izyum and degrade the already poor Russian morale across the frontline.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced on 8 September that military drills will be held on the border with Ukraine and Poland until 14 September. According to the Belarusian ministry, these latest drills will practice crossing the Ukrainian border and “liberating territory temporarily seized by the enemy”. The timing of the drills means they are highly likely to be a response to Ukraine’s counteroffensives in both Kherson and Kharkiv oblast. We have long assessed that military activity along the Belarusian border is primarily designed to remind Kyiv that Russia could still attempt incursions in the north, and therefore force Ukrainian units to screen the border.
While we maintain that it is unlikely that Belarus will join the war directly at this stage, if the situation in the south continues to deteriorate for Russian forces, then pressure will likely increase on Minsk to increase support for Russia. In the meantime, the military drills and bellicose rhetoric are a likely attempt to take pressure off Russian forces in the south and force Ukrainian forces to redeploy to guard the northern border. There is a realistic possibility that this could escalate to isolated provocations at the border or false-flag incidents inside Belarus, as previously assessed. Ultimately, however, limited Russian and Belarusian capability along this border means a major invasion is highly unlikely, and as such a major Ukrainian redeployment is unlikely. Our assessment in June on the dynamics and trigger points influencing the threat of another invasion from Belarus are therefore still applicable today. Please see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 30 June.

Political developments

The General Secretary of Russia’s ruling United Russia party on 7 September proposed occupied territories hold referenda on joining the Russian Federation on 4 November, Russia’s Day of National Unity. This is the latest posited date for long-discussed referenda in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, though all previous alleged dates have passed without a vote taking place. The 11 September had previously been posited as just such a date, designed to coincide with Russia’s regional elections, but senior Russian-installed official in Kherson oblast Kirill Stremousov, this week suggested that referendum plans have been delayed amid the Ukrainian counteroffensive. As such, it remains to be seen whether any votes will take place in the coming months given the military situation.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated on 7 September that shelling on 6 September has damaged a backup power line that would supply the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in the case of an emergency. Following the IAEA’s report, Ukraine’s chief state inspector for nuclear and radiation safety Oleh Korikov stated that Ukraine is considering shutting down the ZNPP due to the prolonged lack of a stable external power supply, as using backup diesel generators would not be sustainable over the longer term.
Today, 8 September, the Pentagon confirmed a new US military aid package to Ukraine worth USD 675 m, which will include HIMARS ammunitions and various military vehicles. The announcement comes ahead of the next Ramstein summit, due to take place today, where the US will lead discussions with Ukraine’s international partners on maintaining the next round of military aid for Kyiv. Further announcements are possible from other nations. Notably, it also emerged today that the US has also been supplying its most accurate artillery shell, the GPS-guided Excalibur, to Ukraine, which had not been previously announced. Budget papers confirmed a USD 92 m package to replace M982 Excalibur munitions already transferred to Ukraine. The shells are fired in 155mm howitzers and are satellite-guided, capable of striking within two metres of their target. This has likely already played a role in improving Ukraine’s already potent long-range and guided artillery and counterbattery capabilities, which have been used to significant effect during the ongoing Kherson counteroffensive.
For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our revised and updated Scenario Planning and Projections report.

Forecast

Today, 8 September, Ukrainian and senior US officials stated that Ukrainian forces aim to retake Kherson and all territory on the western bank of the Dnieper by the end of the year. This includes Nova Kakhovka – the site of a strategically important canal that supplies fresh water to occupied Crimea. The stated goal of the end of 2022 remains highly ambitious, but given the successful degradation of Russian ground lines of communication across the Dnieper River over the last month, it remains possible. In particular, if Ukrainian forces are able to maintain the current level of pressure on Russian forces across the frontline, including keeping them off balance in Kharkiv oblast, it remains a realistic possibility that they will be able to force a Russian withdrawal across the Dnieper by the end of the year. However, it remains to be seen whether Ukrainian forces will be able to sustain this pressure over the coming weeks and months. Related to this, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhny co-wrote a rare public assessment of the war in an article published on 7 September. In it, he stated that there is “every reason to believe that [the war] is not going to end anywhere within 2022. […] As long as the current situation persists, this war can last for years”. This aligns with our own assessment that lower-level fighting will continue over the winter and will likely intensify once again in the spring, as neither the military nor political situation will allow for a peace settlement at present. Zaluzhny also warned of the threat of Russian using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, an issue which is likely to resurface in the media in the coming days amid the success Ukrainian counteroffensives are achieving in both Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts. Ultimately, Russian tactical nuclear weapon use remains highly unlikely in Ukraine until such a time that a Ukrainian strategic counteroffensive succeeds in seriously threatening Crimea – considered legally Russian territory by the Kremlin.

Ukraine: Parliament’s adoption of new legislation helps EU accession bid; implementation difficulties remain. On 8 September, Ukraine’s parliament adopted key European integration legislation to bring anti-money laundering laws up to the standard required by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). This specific piece of legislation is integral to Ukraine’s EU accession bid. Kyiv has recently introduced similar legislation to curb the influence and power of oligarchs, resulting in increased scrutiny of monetary transfers. President Volodymyr Zelenksy’s large mandate is easing the legislative process for major reform, though implementation could remain a challenge. As such, further progress towards alignment on key EU standards is much more likely under current warfighting conditions than under the polarised and corrupt dynamics that dominated before the war. Nevertheless, despite legislative progress being made in the country’s parliament, Ukraine is unlikely to accede to EU membership in the short to medium term.

Baltics: Governments to restrict entry of Russian citizens, elevating regional tensions. On 7 September, the Latvian Foreign Minister said that the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would likely restrict the entry of Russian citizens to the three Baltic states within two weeks. The foreign minister said that they were considering restricting border crossings from Russia and Belarus for Russian citizens holding Schengen visas. Lorry drivers, diplomats and those travelling for humanitarian purposes or to visit family will be exempt from the restriction. It is likely that if the new restrictions enter into force in 10 days, regional tensions with Russia will increase, elevating cyber security threats for companies operating in the three countries as well as for government institutions. Furthermore, it is possible that in retaliation, Moscow will cut gas deliveries to the Baltics, further elevating energy security risks in the region.

07 Sep

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson oblast continues to make steady progress, though official Ukrainian channels remain limited to reports on strikes against Russian ground lines of communication, rather than the movement of the frontline. The intensity and effectiveness of these strikes appear to be increasing, with widespread evidence of various bridges across the Inhulets and Dnieper rivers being targeted. For example, yesterday a Ukrainian Air Force strike eliminated a Russian pontoon crossing across the Inhulets River east of Kherson. This is the latest indication of the apparent and growing weakness of Russian air defences along this axis after weeks of Ukrainian strikes, and the growing room for manoeuvre this will provide the Ukrainian Air Force during the counteroffensive.
On the ground, Russian and Ukrainian sources indicate that the most intense fighting over the last 24 hours has taken place northwest of Kherson city and along the Inhulets River in western Kherson oblast. While the information blackout means we cannot confirm where Ukrainian forces are attacking, the Ukrainian General Staff are still reporting on Russian ground attacks along this axis. Ukrainian forces have reportedly repulsed numerous Russian ground attacks northwest of Kherson city and towards Mykolaiv, indicating this axis remains heavily contested. Further north, however, geolocated imagery supports the assessment that Ukrainian forces have retaken territory along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk oblast border, including the settlements of Olhyne and Viskopillya, and most recently Novovoznesenske (50km south of Kryvyi Rih).
Following reporting yesterday, over the last 24 hours Ukrainian forces have stepped up opportunistic counterattacks in eastern Ukraine as well, in both Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. Ukrainian forces have likely made some notable progress around Balakliya, 70km southeast of Kharkiv, including the likely capture of Verbivka, to the town’s northwest. Clashes have also been reported in the settlement of Savyntsi, 16km east of Balakliya and 25km northwest of Izyum, which notably stands on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River.
Last week we reported that Russian forces had blown a bridge near Balakliya and took up more defensible positions on the eastern bank of the river, with unconfirmed images on social media supporting this assessment, and indicating further limited Russian withdrawals have occurred. The fact that multiple bridges have seemingly been destroyed suggests a planned withdrawal on the part of Russian forces in a bid to slow any follow-up Ukrainian counterattacks.
Furthermore, Ukrainian forces are maintaining pressure further south, along the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River, northeast of Slovyansk. Following the capture of Ozerne as reported yesterday, geolocated imagery suggests that Ukrainian forces have taken further ground and are now operating near the village of Staryi Karavan, 12km northeast of Slovyansk along the far bank of the river. Ukrainian forces are therefore continuing to push Russian forces back along the T-05-14 highway towards Lyman. For further analysis of Ukrainian counterattacks in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblast, see the Forecast section below.
While under mounting pressure to the north, Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults east of Bakhmut, achieving limited gains on 6 September. Russian sources have claimed that Wagner Group forces have now gained complete control over Kodema, some 15km southeast of Bakhmut. Notably, however, Ukrainian General Staff this morning, 7 September, claimed that Russian private military companies (PMCs) are suffering very high casualty rates in the Donbas, with unnamed individual units allegedly sustaining “more than 40 percent seriously wounded and killed”. While this cannot be confirmed, the intensity of the fighting and wider indications of Russia’s shortages of infantry would support such high casualty rates.
Separatist DNR forces have also claimed limited progress on the outskirts of Horlivka, but this is not yet confirmed. Russian forces have also continued attacking settlements west of Donetsk city, though progress along this axis remains very slow. DNR forces have claimed they took control of a key bridge running between Pisky and Pervomaiske, the latter of which has remained a key objective for DNR forces over recent weeks. Beyond this, the Ukrainian General Staff maintain that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully repulse all other Russian ground attacks along the Bakhmut and Donetsk axes.

Political developments

On 6 September, President Zelensky addressed the New York Stock Exchange and called on US companies to invest in Ukraine’s reconstruction. During the speech, Zelensky announced the launch of a new campaign aimed at boosting investment into the country. In particular, he framed ongoing success on the battlefield as representing long-term opportunities to US and international companies to take part in the reconstruction efforts that will be worth hundreds of bns of dollars. As the war continues and Russian capabilities remain constrained, many international businesses are considering re-entry into the Ukrainian market. Reconstruction efforts in Kyiv and northern Ukraine have already illustrated the readiness of the Ukrainian state and businesses to build back better for the long term, providing significant potential opportunities if the frontline continues to stagnate.
On 7 September, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for a security zone to be created around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog visited the ZNPP last week and released their report on 6 September. The report described the situation at the site as untenable and that the location of Russian military equipment is limiting access to critical sites that could impede on-site emergency responses. Russian troops have controlled the ZNPP since March, with shelling around the site set to ensure tensions remain extremely high. Although the IAEA has expressed an urgent need for interim measures to mitigate the potential for a large-scale nuclear incident, the risk of this materialising remains low. However, it remains highly unlikely that Moscow will agree to a demilitarisation of the plant, which will continue to undermine nuclear safety and transparency at the site. For further analysis on the scenarios for a nuclear incident in Ukraine, see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 18 August.
On 7 September, unnamed US defence officials stated that the Pentagon is conducting preparations for a detailed analysis of how the US intends to support Ukraine’s military over the medium to long term, including after the war with Russia is concluded. The analysis is expected to be finalised within the next couple of months, and if approved by US President Joe Biden and Kyiv, would set out a plan for long-term US military aid and training programmes. This is the latest indication that Washington remains committed to sustaining current levels of military support for Ukraine over the longer term. Meanwhile, the looming economic and energy crises are set to test European resolve to continue the current levels of military aid over the same time frame. Notably in this respect, Liz Truss was appointed as the UK’s new prime minister on 6 September. Ben Wallace has remained in his post as the UK Secretary of State for Defence, and Truss is highly likely to sustain the UK’s current levels of support for Ukraine, despite significant spending commitments and the mounting cost of living pressures.

Forecast

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson oblast continues to build momentum, with all indications pointing to Ukrainian forces successfully taking ground, and degrading Russian ground lines of communication across the frontline. However, over the last 24-48 hours, Ukrainian forces have also experienced notable success in eastern Ukraine, with opportunistic attacks taking ground along the Siverskyi Donets River in both Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. Ultimately, these attacks are more likely opportunistic in nature and designed to take advantage of relative Russian weakness along this axis, rather than a coordinated counteroffensive such as in Kherson oblast. Nevertheless, if Ukrainian forces are able to sustain the pressure on the Kharkiv axis, Russia’s ground lines of communication running between Belgorod and Izyum will be increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS strikes, and may force Russia to deploy reserves in order to prevent further Ukrainian progress. This in turn will likely limit opportunities for progress around Russia’s principal military objectives in Ukraine – namely making progress around Bakhmut and Donetsk city. Whether Ukrainian forces can sustain their current momentum and consolidate these newly gained footholds across the Siverskyi Donets remains to be seen. However, the attacks clearly indicate that the redeployment of Russian units to the south in recent weeks has exposed major holes in the Russian frontline along the Kharkiv-Donetsk axis. Looking ahead, Ukrainian forces will continue to exploit said holes in an attempt to keep Russian forces off balance and relieve pressure on their main counteroffensive in Kherson oblast.

Kazakhstan: Small-scale protests in Nur-Sultan unlikely to escalate before the winter. On 7 September, 20 people were detained in Nur-Sultan after staging a protest demanding justice for those who were either arrested or killed during the anti-government demonstrations in January 2022. Activists sought the posthumous dropping of charges against civil activists who died, alongside the release of relatives still imprisoned. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has previously attributed civil unrest to ‘foreign terrorists’, which resulted in the deployment of Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation forces in 2022. There is a moderate risk of large-scale civil unrest in the country, akin to January 2022, as a weak post-covid economy exacerbates inflation and job insecurity. However, Tokayev has in recent weeks pledged to introduce various social policies that will likely mitigate this risk, including minimum wage increases and pension reforms. Nevertheless, the cost of living crisis will ensure the risk of domestic unrest will remain elevated over the winter, as across the wider region.

UN calls for security zone around the ZNPP, although risk of large-scale nuclear incident remains low. On 7 September, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for a security zone to be created around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog visited the ZNPP last week and released their report on 6 September. The report described the situation at the site as untenable and that the location of Russian military equipment is limiting access to critical sites that could impede on-site emergency responses. Russian troops have controlled the ZNPP since March, with shelling around the site set to ensure tensions remain extremely high. Although the IAEA has expressed an urgent need for interim measures to mitigate the potential of a large-scale nuclear incident, the risk of this materialising remains low. However, it remains highly unlikely that Moscow will agree to a demilitarisation of the plant, which will continue to undermine nuclear safety and transparency at the site.

Cyber Update

Publicly-disclosed Pro-Russia cyber campaigns experienced a notable decline during this monitoring period. However, the Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack launched by Killnet in Japan highlight the continued threat posed to countries that maintain adversarial relations with the Russian government. Nevertheless, given Russian state-linked actors’ limited time and funding along with pro-Russian hacktivists’ limited technical capabilities, these cyber attacks are likely to remain low-level activity, such as DDoS or defacement, and have a limited impact on their targets’ operations. Ukrainian government agencies, their foreign allies, and their private sector partners, such as in energy or technology, will remain the most at-risk for these cyber attacks.
In contrast, cyber campaigns disclosed by Pro-Ukraine hackers maintained pace during the last week. Further such cyber activities are highly likely to continue, especially following prominent pro-Kyiv hacking groups’ promises to continue attacking Western businesses that maintain operations in Russia and/or are critical to the Russian economy, such as firms in the transportation, energy, and telecoms sectors. Such cyber attacks will likely take the form of DDoS, defacement, and/or data leaks.

Pro-Russian cyber campaigns were limited during this monitoring period; Moscow-aligned hacktivists’ disruptive cyber attacks against Ukraine-allied nation-states continue

On 6 September, Japan’s National Center of Incident Readiness and Strategy for Cybersecurity (NISC) announced that the Japanese government’s e-Gov web portal was subjected to a Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack. Pro-Russian hacktivist group Killnet claimed responsibility for this cyber attack, and another against the Japanese social media site Mixi via its Telegram Channel, and said it was against “Japan’s militarism”. As such, there is a realistic probability that this incident was in retaliation to Tokyo’s recent decision to expand its military capabilities to counter Chinese and Russian threats in contested territories. Indeed, Russia and Japan have been engaged in a years-long territorial dispute over the Russian-controlled Kuril islands (known as the Northern Territories by Japan). Such activity would be indicative of Killnet’s pledge to aid the Russian government by targeting countries either supporting Kyiv in its conflict against Moscow and/or engaging in inflammatory activities against the Russian government.
On 5 September, a Twitter account allegedly representing the Belarusian Cyber-Partisan Group, a group of pro-Kyiv hacktivists, claimed that they had compromised infrastructure facilities in Gomel, Belarus. The group claimed that this cyber campaign resulted in, amongst other things, the facilities’ internal networks being “partially paralysed” and the defacement of employees’ computers. If officially confirmed, this would be the group’s latest cyber campaign since the group alleged on 30 August it leaked Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko’s passport information online. Despite such allegations, several cyber security researchers have noted that the leaked passport information is likely fake given several spelling and formatting errors, including the misspelling of Lukashenko’s first name.
On 1 September, industry reports claimed that hackers hacked into Russian technology firm Yandex’s taxi services. The hackers reportedly ordered taxis to Moscow’s Kutuzov Prospect at the same time, which caused traffic congestion for less than an hour according to Yandex’s spokesperson Polina Pestova. While Yandex has refrained from attributing this attack to a specific threat actor, the pro-Kyiv cyber groups Anonymous and the IT Army of Ukraine have claimed responsibility. If officially confirmed, this would be indicative of the two hacking groups’ declaration of “cyber warfare” against the Russian government and its private businesses over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

FORECAST

Publicly-disclosed pro-Russian cyber campaigns have remained limited during this monitoring period. However, the DDoS attacks launched by Killnet underscore the heightened threat to nation-states either perceived to be engaged in inflammatory activities against the Russian government regarding Ukraine and/or in a pre-existing dispute with Russia, being targeted by pro-Russian hackers. Despite this threat, there is a realistic probability that these cyber attacks will predominately be launched by Moscow-aligned hacktivists or patriotic hackers. Indeed, issues such as the international sanctions levied against Moscow and the Russian military’s limited success in Ukraine have severely inhibited Russian state-linked cyber threat actors’ funding and time to engage in cyber activity outside the confines of the invasion. Given these constraints, pro-Russian hacktivists and patriotic hackers will likely fill the gap by targeting the aforementioned categories of nation-states. However, there is a high likelihood of the cyber attack launched by these hackers being low-level or rudimentary in nature, such as DDoS or defacement, given their limited funding and technical capabilities. Organisations operating in industries of typical interest for these groups, such as government agencies, energy, IT, or telecoms, are advised to consult Western government agencies’ “quick guides” on such cyber attacks to minimise their exposure to this threat. Meanwhile, publicly-disclosed pro-Ukraine cyber activity maintained pace during this monitoring period. The Anonymous campaign against Yandex’s taxi service highlights the potential physical disruptions that pro-Kyiv cyber attacks can pose to Russia-based business operations. Given the collective’s promise to continue targeting Western businesses maintaining operations in Russia, there is a realistic probability of further such cyber attacks being launched over the coming 3-4 months. While the group’s indiscriminate targeting tactics mean that any sector operating in Russia is at risk of being targeted, companies that either play an important role in Russia’s economy – such as those in the technology, hospitality, or transportation sectors – and/or operate in its critical infrastructure – such as energy, telecoms, or water – will be the most at-risk industries for any pro-Kyiv cyber activity. These cyber attacks will most likely take the form of either DDoS, defacement, and/or data leaks.

06 Sep

The Ukrainian information blackout continues to limit information on the counteroffensive in Kherson oblast, but all indicators point to Ukrainian forces continuing to make steady progress at various points. Russian sources are maintaining that fighting remains concentrated along four key axes: northwest of Kherson city; around Snihurivka, an important Russian position on the western bank of the Inhulets River, 60km east of Mykolaiv; around Vysokopillya, which was likely retaken by Ukrainian forces over the weekend; and southwest of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, which Ukrainian General Staff reports on Russian airstrikes suggest is where Ukrainian forces are achieving notable progress. Official Ukrainian reports on progress in the south have otherwise remained almost exclusively limited to reports of strikes against Russian logistics and command and control centres, in particular continual destruction of various Russian pontoon bridges across the Inhulets and Dnieper rivers. However, limited Ukrainian counterattacks also continued in eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian officials confirming on 5 September that they had taken unnamed positions east and northeast of Slovyansk, along the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River – likely a reference to Ozerne, as reported yesterday. In addition, the head of Luhansk Oblast Serhiy Haidai has this morning claimed that Ukrainian forces have gained a foothold in Luhansk oblast. He did not specify where this has been achieved but maintained that “several hundred metres” of territory has been reclaimed inside the administrative borders of Luhansk, the first time since Russian forces took the border in July. If this is confirmed, it would indicate that Russian forces are under much more serious pressure along the Siversk-Lysychansk border than previously, which will likely further limit Russian forces’ ability to make progress to the south around Bakhmut and Donetsk city.
The Ukrainian General Staff this morning, 6 September, maintained that their forces have repulsed various ground assaults against Soledar, Zaitseve, Shakhta Butivka, and Spartak, all of which remain key Russian targets east of Bakhmut and west of Donetsk city. Russian forces have made very little progress along these axes over the last few weeks, but the deployment of reinforcements in Donetsk oblast will likely refocus Russian efforts in the coming weeks.
This morning, 6 September, long-range strikes continued to target major cities closer to the frontline, including central Kharkiv and Kryviy Rih. In the former, apartment blocks in the city centre were hit, while missiles struck a large oil refinery in Kryviy Rih, which has caused a massive fire that continues to burn at the time of writing. While Russia still possesses long-range precision strike capabilities, the frequency of such strikes has decreased over the last month, likely reflecting a diminishing stock of cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic weapons.
US intelligence has indicated that Russia is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea. The reports remain highly credible amongst Russia’s clear need for munitions and the growing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang in recent months, including the possibility of North Korean workers helping rebuild the Donbas. UK Defence Intelligence has furthermore reported on 6 September that diminishing stocks of UAVs is likely degrading Russian commanders’ situational awareness and hampering Russian operations. While this is likely true, Moscow is similarly seeking to plug the gap with purchases of advanced drones from Iran, as previously reported. The military production capabilities of both North Korea and Iran for large quantities of basic military goods will likely serve as a steady supplier for the Russian war effort for the foreseeable future. Despite this, North Korea’s closure of its borders in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic has severely inhibited its import of basic materials. While trade with key partners such as China has moderately increased in recent months, the country’s insufficient supply of resources and materials will likely limit its ability to supply the Russian military’s growing needs. Meanwhile, questions will also remain over how effectively Russia’s domestic military-industrial capacity has adapted to international sanctions and looming shortages.

Political developments

On 5 September, the Russian-installed head of the Kherson oblast occupation authority, Kirill Stremousov, stated that his government has paused plans for a referendum on Kherson joining Russia due to “security” concerns. Stremousov subsequently denied that he has paused plans given that his administration had never set an official date for the vote to take place. However, 11 September had been touted as a possible date to coincide with Russia’s regional elections. Ultimately, the failure of Russian forces to conquer the full administrative boundaries of the oblast, and the steadily building Ukrainian counteroffensive, have undermined Russian-backed efforts to push ahead with a vote this month. All indicators nevertheless point to Moscow’s intention to control the territory indefinitely. As such, a vote is likely at some point in the future, though much will depend on the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the coming weeks and months.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to publish its report on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) today, 6 September. However, shelling at the plant has increased over the last 24 hours, with a fire reportedly cutting power to the plant once again. According to the IAEA, the plant’s backup power line had been cut to extinguish a fire caused by shelling, but the line in question has not been damaged and should be reconnected soon. Notably, the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) have claimed that Ukrainian GUR Spetznaz special forces conducted a limited operation behind Russian lines in Kamianka-Dniprovska, just 12km west of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The special operation reportedly destroyed numerous buildings, including those allegedly being used to prepare for the seemingly now delayed referenda on joining Russia. While the report underlines Ukraine’s willingness to operate in the vicinity of the ZNPP, such operations are highly unlikely to impact the plant itself despite Russian claims to the contrary.
On 5 September, US media outlet Bloomberg reported on details of a confidential internal Russian report that looks to assess the true impact of international sanctions on the Russian economy. According to Bloomberg, the document presents three scenarios, with Russia’s economy only returning to its pre-war levels at the end of the decade or later in the worst-case scenario. Russian Ministry of Economy officials have subsequently said that the report presents the worst case, rather than what is likely to happen. Nevertheless, the internal report presents a much more pessimistic outlook that indicates import shortages and diminishing oil and gas exports will severely hit Russian revenue. In addition, the report predicts that up to 200,000 IT specialists could leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of a worsening brain drain that will likely impact Russia’s long-term technological capabilities amid already widespread demographic decline.

Forecast

On 5 September, President Putin praised the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR), stating that they are fighting better than Russia’s professional forces in the Donbas. Putin’s statement comes just after our own assessment yesterday that morale amongst DNR and LNR forces is increasingly low, following reports of refusals to fight and growing discontent amongst LNR forces over their treatment vis-à-vis regular Russian forces (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 5 September). Putin’s intervention is therefore likely an attempt to improve morale and militia recruitment efforts in the occupied territories. Given the extent to which Russian forces have relied upon DNR and LNR militias to drive offensives across the Donbas throughout this war, efforts to shore-up militia morale and expand recruitment will be vital to facilitating future offensives in Donetsk oblast and elsewhere. However, the tacit acknowledgement that professional and regular Russian forces are not performing as effectively as often ill-disciplined and under-equipped militias is noteworthy and is likely an attempt to shame Russian commanders into delivering more tangible results. However, amid growing pressure by Ukrainian counterattacks, it remains to be seen whether Russian forces will be able to achieve any notable progress in the coming weeks.

Europe: Calls for reductions in energy use underline high energy insecurity, elevating threats of domestic unrest. On 5 September, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a 10 percent reduction in domestic energy use in the coming weeks. The announcement underlines European efforts to mitigate the risks of energy rationing and cuts in the winter months, with President Macron warning that energy-saving regulations will be imposed if voluntary reduction efforts are insufficient. On the same day, the German gas importer Uniper also announced that it would not rule out gas rationing in Germany this winter. The comments follow Moscow’s decision to indefinitely shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, leading to a surge in European gas prices which will almost certainly raise businesses’ operational costs. As such, with Germany unlikely to reach its 95 percent filling target for its gas storage facilities by November and other European countries, including France, facing heightened energy insecurity, there is an elevated likelihood of domestic unrest over the coming months.

Russia: Efforts to mitigate the impact of sanctions will sustain Russian capacity to prosecute war in Ukraine. On 6 September, Russia’s Sberbank announced to the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) that it will start to lend to companies in Chinese Yuan and eventually in Indian Rupees. There is currently no active demand for loans in rupees, although the bank is considering all viable options before entering the debt market in autumn. Western sanctions have prevented Russia from purchasing dollars and Euros, with these latest attempts to facilitate alternative currencies forming part of a wider strategy to weather the economic impact of sanctions more widely. Nevertheless, according to the latest estimates, Russia received USD 158bn from energy exports after invading Ukraine, underlining the mixed short-term impact of sanctions. Efforts to mitigate sanctions combined with the current all-time high in energy prices will likely sustain Moscow’s currently higher-than-average revenues through 2022. These will be utilised to drive conflict in Ukraine.

05 Sep

During his nightly address to the Ukrainian people on 4 September, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making progress. He stated that the 42nd Separate Motorised Infantry Battalion had liberated two unnamed settlements along the Kherson-Mykolaiv-Dnipropetrovsk frontline. Ukrainian officials published footage of Ukrainian forces raising their flag in Vysokopillya, a settlement 45km south of Kryvyi Rih. Russian sources have indicated that Russian forces withdrew from the settlement to avoid encirclement. Beyond this, verifiable information remains limited, though the Ukrainian General Staff have reported an increase in Russian airstrikes against certain settlements to the east of the Ukrainians’ original bridgehead across the Inhulets River. This indicates that Ukrainian forces may have advanced as much as 12km east of the river, though this cannot be confirmed.
Despite reports of Ukraine’s progress over the weekend, Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych stated on 3 September that the goal of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive in the south is the “systemic grinding of Putin’s army”, rather than rapid reclamation of territory. This aligns with our assessment that Ukrainian forces are unlikely to attempt a direct ground assault on Kherson city in the short term. Rather, Ukrainian forces are more likely focused on degrading Russian ground lines of communication and command and control centres to make their continued presence on the right bank of the Dnieper River untenable.
It ultimately remains unlikely that Russian forces would abandon the right bank of the Dnieper until such a time that operations are no longer viable. However, their withdrawal from northern Ukraine and Kharkiv earlier this war has shown that Russian commanders are prepared to conduct large-scale withdrawals if necessary to shore up more important fronts elsewhere. A Russian withdrawal across the Dnieper would be a significant blow to Russian morale, but would largely stabilise the front along that axis, as neither side is likely to have the capability to conduct large-scale opposed river crossings across such a vast stretch of water as the Dnieper. Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russian authorities have banned the movement of locals across Kherson oblast, including crossing the Dnieper River, reflecting the mounting logistical challenges facing Russian forces.
There are further indications that Ukraine’s more systemic strategy of degrading Russian forces is achieving results. According to Ukraine’s Operational Command South, elements of the 127th Regiment of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps refused to fight. The regiment is believed to have been deployed to north-western Kherson oblast in early April, with its sister regiment, the 109th reportedly surrendering to Ukrainian forces on the first day of the counteroffensive – though this has not been confirmed.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the troops of the 127th refused to fight given the lack of basic supplies to their forward-stationed positions, including a lack of water. Russian ‘special services’ reportedly took unspecified measures against the unit and removed them from their positions. While likewise unconfirmed, DNR forces have been continuously impacted by poor discipline throughout the war, and Ukrainian intelligence has previously reported on the deployment of the Rosgvardia national guard and Chechen forces to enforce discipline along the Kherson front. Therefore, the reports remain credible. Much of the DNR’s forces are forcibly mobilised militia that Russian logistical planners likely consider a secondary priority over their regular forces. Indeed, Ukraine’s General Staff reported this morning, 5 September, that elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps have claimed they are being discriminated against when compared to regular Russian forces, such as not receiving the same benefits and medical care. As such, Ukraine’s strategy is likely to see fertile ground amongst ill-disciplined, under-supplied and demoralised militia forces, which have repeatedly shown limited willingness to fight outside the borders of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have not only claimed progress on the southern front over the weekend but also in the east. Zelensky claimed that the 63rd Battalion of the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade had liberated an unnamed settlement in Donetsk, while the 54th Brigade took an unspecified height along the Siversk-Lysychansk border. Geolocated footage published over the weekend of 3-4 September indicates that Ukrainian forces have successfully crossed the Siverskyi Donets River and retaken Ozerne, roughly 20km east of Slovyansk. This is a highly significant development and is one of the few times Ukrainian forces have successfully counterattacked across a river, seemingly to limited Russian resistance. This likely reflects the extent to which Russian forces along the Slovyansk-Izyum axis have diminished in recent weeks, as Russian forces are redeployed to more critical points – namely around Bakhmut and Donetsk city. This aligns with earlier reporting (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 1 September) that Russian forces along this axis are withdrawing to more defensible positions in preparation for Ukrainian counterattacks along this increasingly vulnerable frontline.
Russian forces continued launching ground assaults around Bakhmut and Donetsk city over the weekend, but they have made little confirmed progress. These axes will remain the priority of Russian forces for the foreseeable future, likely to the detriment of other fronts, as assessed above.

Political developments

Over the weekend Moscow announced that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will remain closed indefinitely, alleging maintenance issues. The indefinite closure follows the G7’s decision to impose a price cap on Russian oil to curb revenues to the Kremlin. Moscow’s announcement led to a 30 percent spike in gas prices today (5 September) underling the very real possibility that Russia will cut off gas supplies entirely. The development will drive the risk of shortages and gas rationing this winter in some European countries, as well as the threat of a recession. Meanwhile, on 9 September, European energy ministers will meet to discuss measures to curb the soaring energy prices, including gas price caps.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initial mission to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) concluded over the weekend, with Ukraine’s nuclear energy agency Energoatom maintaining that two IAEA members will remain at the plant on a “permanent basis”. Four of the six-person team have completed their review, with a report on their findings expected to be published early this week.
On 3 September Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov posted on his Telegram channel that he deserves to take an “indefinite and long” break from his position. He has ruled Chechnya since 2007 and has remained amongst the most loyal regional leaders to President Putin. While his post has driven speculation that he could step down, he has made similar statements in the past and so it remains unclear whether it is merely a ruse designed to extract concessions from the Kremlin. Nevertheless, the timing of the statement is notable given the impending regional elections across Russia on 11 September. Kadyrov’s post will somewhat undermine the narrative the ruling United Russia party is pushing, namely that continuity and stability are needed during the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. Chechen forces have played a prominent, if often overstated, role in the war in Ukraine. However, their involvement is unlikely to change significantly despite the apparent politicking behind the scenes and the threat of Kadyrov’s resignation.

Forecast

On 4 September, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, but only on how Kyiv would meet Russia’s maximalist demands. Peskov reiterated the Kremlin’s goals of ‘denazifying’ Ukraine, which in effect means regime change in Kyiv as well as the acquisition of territory in the Donbas at the very least. He claimed that all stated objectives of the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine will be completed during any peace negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ultimately, this reinforces our assessment that Moscow is not serious about entering into peace negotiations with Ukraine. The war is therefore set to continue for the foreseeable future, and will likely continue over the winter and well into 2023 as both sides continue offensive operations.

Germany: Government announces EUR 65bn relief package, mitigating threats to socio-economic health. On 4 September, the German government announced a EUR 65bn package to moderate the energy crunch’s impact on households and businesses. The announcement comes shortly after Gazprom said on 2 September that they are not restarting their gas deliveries to Germany following a three-day maintenance period on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The full and indefinite halt of energy deliveries from Russia to Germany led to a significant increase in energy prices on 5 September. According to Chancellor Scholz, the new support package will be financed partly by a windfall tax on energy companies and emergency measures will also involve an energy price cap. The new support package will reduce threats to socio-economic health in Germany despite the shutdown of gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1, though energy security risks in the region will remain high. (Source: Sibylline)

12 Sep 22. Ukraine accuses Russia of attacking power grid in revenge for offensive.

Summary

Russian missile strikes target power, water – Ukraine
Ukrainian forces say they have reclaimed 3,000 sq km
Final reactor shut down at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Ukraine accused the Russian military of attacking civilian infrastructure in response to a rapid weekend offensive by Ukrainian troops that forced Russia to abandon its main bastion in the Kharkiv region.

Ukrainian officials said targets of the retaliatory attacks included water facilities and a thermal power station in Kharkiv, and caused widespread blackouts.

“No military facilities, the goal is to deprive people of light & heat,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on Twitter late on Sunday.

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Moscow denies its forces deliberately target civilians.

Zelenskiy has described Ukraine’s offensive in the northeast as a potential breakthrough in the six-month-old war, and said the winter could see further territorial gains if Kyiv received more powerful weapons.

In the worst defeat for Moscow’s forces since they were repelled from the outskirts of the capital Kyiv in March, thousands of Russian soldiers left behind ammunition and equipment as they fled the city of Izium, which they had used as a logistics hub.

Ukraine’s chief commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said the armed forces had regained control of more than 3,000 square km (1,158 square miles) since the start of this month.

Ukraine’s gains are important politically for Zelenskiy as he seeks to keep Europe united behind Ukraine – supplying weapons and money – even as an energy crisis looms this winter following cuts in Russian gas supplies to European customers.

‘COWARD RESPONSE’

Ukraine’s General Staff said on Monday defence forces had dislodged the enemy from more than 20 settlements in the past day.

Near the Russian border, in the village of Kozacha Lopan north of Kharkiv, Ukrainian soldiers and local officials were greeted by residents with hugs and handshakes.

“Kozacha (Lopan) is and will be Ukraine,” district Mayor Vyacheslav Zadorenko said on a video he posted on Facebook on Sunday. “No ‘Russian World’ whatsoever. See for yourselves where the ‘Russian World’ rags are lying around. Glory to Ukraine, glory to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

Moscow’s almost total silence on the defeat – or any explanation for what had taken place in northeastern Ukraine – provoked significant anger among some pro-war commentators and Russian nationalists on social media. Some called on Sunday for President Vladimir Putin to make immediate changes to ensure ultimate victory in the war.

Zelenskiy said late on Sunday that Russian attacks caused a total blackout in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, and partial blackouts in the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, said Kharkiv’s CHPP-5 electricity station – one of the largest in Ukraine – had been hit.

“A coward ‘response’ for the escape of its own army from the battlefield,” he said on Twitter.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the president’s office, posted an image on Telegram of electrical infrastructure on fire but added power had been restored in some regions.

Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Financial Times Ukraine needed to secure retaken territory against a possible Russian counterattack on stretched Ukrainian supply lines.

But he said the offensive had gone far better than expected, describing it as a “snowball rolling down a hill”.

“It’s a sign that Russia can be defeated,” he said.

Britain’s defence ministry said on Sunday that fighting continued around Izium and the city of Kupiansk, the sole rail hub supplying Russia’s front line across northeastern Ukraine, which has been retaken by Ukraine’s forces.

Leonid Pasechnik, the head of the Luhansk People’s Republic, was quoted by Russian news agencies saying Ukrainian forces were attempting to penetrate the eastern region, claimed by Russia at the beginning of July.

“Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have not stopped their attempts to infiltrate the territory of the republic for the purpose of provocation and intimidating our citizens,” he said, adding there had been “no retreat from positions held by the republic.”

NUCLEAR REACTOR SHUTS DOWN

As the war entered its 200th day, Ukraine on Sunday shut down the last operating reactor at Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant to guard against a catastrophe as fighting rages nearby.

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of shelling around the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia plant, risking a release of radiation.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said a backup power line to the plant had been restored, providing the external electricity it needed to carry out the shutdown while defending against the risk of a meltdown.

French President Emmanuel Macron told Putin in a phone call on Sunday the plant’s occupation by Russian troops is the reason why its security is compromised, the French presidency said. Putin blamed Ukrainian forces, according to a Kremlin statement.

France on Sunday said it would sign an agreement with Romania to help increase Ukrainian grain exports. read more

Ukraine’s grain exports have slumped since the start of the war because its Black Sea ports were closed off, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages.

“Tomorrow, I will sign an accord with Romania that will allow Ukraine to get even more grains out … towards Europe and developing countries, notably in the Mediterranean (countries)which need it for food,” Transport Minister Clement Beaune told France Inter radio.

The International Monetary Fund is also looking for ways to provide emergency funding to countries facing war-induced food price shocks and will discuss measures at an executive board meeting on Monday, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. (Source: Reuters)

12 Sep 22. Britain says Russia has likely ordered troops’ withdrawal from Kharkiv region. Britain’s defence ministry said on Monday that Russia has likely ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of occupied Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River. The UK defence ministry said in a regular update that Ukraine has recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London. UK said in a tweet “The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for Russia’s overall operational design”. (Source: Reuters)

12 Sep 22. Ukraine’s defence minister warns on Russian counter-attack. Oleksii Reznikov says Kyiv needs to secure territory after lightning offensive went ‘better than expected’ Armoured fighting vehicles were abandoned by Russian soldiers during the counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces © Press service of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine via Reuters Share on twitter (opens new window) Share on facebook (opens new window) Share on linkedin (opens new window) Save John Paul Rathbone and Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv YESTERDAY 533 Print this page Stay across the latest Ukraine coverage.Join the FT’s Telegram channel Ukraine needs to secure the vast territory it has recaptured from possible Russian counter-attack, the country’s defence minister has warned, as he said Kyiv’s lightning offensive had gone far “better than expected”. The attack has routed the Kremlin’s forces, led to the recapture of some 3,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory and prompted an unusual admission by Russia’s defence ministry that its troops had to retreat. “A counter-offensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” defence minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Financial Times, while cautioning: “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.” On Sunday night Russia lashed out against Ukraine with artillery and missile strikes launched from the Black Sea. In Kharkiv, the night sky lit up following a strike on the country’s second-largest thermal power plant, causing a total blackout. A total blackout also hit the Donetsk region, while Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy experienced partial ones. The Russian forces are “terrorists and remain terrorists and attack critical infrastructure. No military facilities, the goal is to deprive people of light and heat,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a tweet. Russia’s most vocal pro-war commentators celebrated civilian areas being left without power: “Hey neighbours, what’s up with the light?” Russia Today’s editor Margarita Simonyan taunted. However, late on Sunday, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, a senior Ukraine official, said power had been returned to some regions. Zelensky later wrote on Telegram: “Do you still think that we [Russians and Ukrainians] are ‘one people’? Do you still think that you can scare us, break us? . . . We will be with gas, light, water and food . . . and WITHOUT you!” In the same speech the president also hailed the ‘liberation’ of the three towns of Balakliia, Izyum and Kupyansk. The Ukrainian blitzkrieg — which Reznikov described as a “snowball rolling down a hill” — is the biggest setback so far for Russia since the full-scale invasion that its president Vladimir Putin ordered on February 24. Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of Chechnya, which has supported Moscow by sending troops, criticised Russia’s military for the retreat and said if their strategy did not change, he would speak to the “leadership of the country”. “Mistakes were made. I think they’ll draw conclusions. It might not be nice when you tell someone the truth to their face, but I like telling the truth,” he said.

The latest Ukrainian offensive marks a success along the northernmost of the three active front lines in the conflict and Kyiv’s forces continued to press home the advantage on Sunday. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander of the armed forces, said they were just 50km from the Russian border. Photographs he posted on Telegram showed military positions that Russian troops had abandoned in such a hurry that meals were left set out on wooden tables. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to liberate territories occupied by Russia,” Zaluzhnyi wrote. “Since the beginning of September, more than 3,000 sq km have been returned.” Oleksii Reznikov: ‘

Russian sympathisers also fled from occupied territories in the Luhansk region, south-east of Kharkiv, said Serhiy Hayday, the Ukrainian head of the region’s military administration. “Massive de-occupation is on the horizon,” Hayday said on Ukrainian television on Sunday. “Maybe this [victory] will not be in a day or two, but it will happen soon . . . We can say that their morale is shattered.” Reznikov said Ukrainian troops were tired after the six-day attack but morale was high because “it’s a sign that Russia can be defeated”. He cautioned that Russian reinforcements could launch a counter-attack on his country’s stretched supply lines. Ukrainian forces could also be encircled by fresh Russian troops if they advance too far. Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said the Ukrainian advance was a moment of hope. “This is what we need,” she said speaking on a visit to Kyiv. Russia’s defence ministry acknowledged on Saturday that its forces had pulled back from the strategic city of Izyum, claiming it had decided to “regroup” and transfer them south-east to the Donetsk region Ukrainian troops had encircled Kupyansk, north of Izyum, a road and rail hub that supplies Russia’s defences across north-eastern Ukraine. This left thousands of Russian troops cut off from supplies across a stretch of fiercely contested battleground. The liberation of Izyum “would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the battle of Kyiv in March,” analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War said. They expected Ukrainian forces to “capture the city of Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so”. Recommended War in Ukraine Russians ‘fled like Olympic sprinters’ as Ukraine retook north-east Officials and military analysts cautioned the offensive’s success did not mean that Ukrainian troops were about to roll back Russian forces to the border. Reznikov said the nearly simultaneous counter-offensive around Kherson was making slower progress because it was an agricultural region “with irrigation channels” the Russians could use as defensive trenches. Casualties there have reportedly been heavy and Ukraine’s general staff said 1,200 Chechen soldiers had been deployed to reinforce Russian positions. Reznikov said the Chechens were being used to stop frontline troops from deserting their positions. (Source: FT.com)

09 Sep 22. Ukraine retakes territory in Kharkiv region as Russian front crumbles.
Summary
• Companies
• Moscow-installed official acknowledges rapid Ukraine advance
• Offensive could shut Russian supply lines -military analysts
• Zelenskiy says fierce battles continue in Donbas and south
Ukrainian forces have seized an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east in a “very sharp and rapid” advance, a Russian-installed regional official said on Friday, in a breakthrough that may mark a turning point in the war.
After keeping silent for a day, Russia effectively acknowledged a section of its frontline had crumbled southeast of Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv.
“The enemy is being delayed as much as possible, but several settlements have already come under the control of Ukrainian armed formations,” Vitaly Ganchev, head of the Russian-backed administration in the Kharkiv region, said on state television. read more
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later said Kyiv’s forces had liberated more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region so far and that fighting continued in the eastern Donbas region and the south.
“Our army, intelligence units and the security services are carrying out active engagements in several operational areas. They are doing so successfully,” he said in a video address.
Ganchev had said his administration was trying to evacuate civilians from cities including Izium, Russia’s main stronghold and logistics base in the province.
Zelenskiy adviser Oleksiy Arestovych, in a video posted on YouTube, said the Russian defenders in Izium were almost isolated. Citing what he described as reports from the front line, Arestovych said hundreds of Russians had died so far and several hundred more had been taken prisoner.
Reuters was not able to immediately verify his claim.
Russia has taken control of around a fifth of Ukraine since its troops invaded on Feb. 24 in what Moscow calls a “special military operation” to “disarm” Ukraine. The Kyiv government and its Western allies accuse Russia of an imperial-style war of aggression.
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The Russian defence ministry released video of military vehicles speeding along a highway, saying they showed reinforcements rushing to defend the area.
Ukrainian officials released videos showing soldiers raising flags and posing in front of street signs in villages and towns across part of previously Russian-held territory.
One image showed troops a highway welcome sign for Kupiansk, previously more than 50 km inside Russia’s front line. The city is an important target as the junction of several of the main railway lines supplying troops at the front.
Ukraine kept independent journalists out of the area.
Western military analysts said the advance could shut the supply lines Moscow has relied on to sustain its force in eastern Ukraine, and potentially leave thousands of Russian troops encircled.
Such rapid advances have largely been unheard of since Russia abandoned its assault on Kyiv in March, shifting the war mainly into a grind along entrenched front lines.
“We see success in Kherson now, we see some success in Kharkiv and so that is very, very encouraging,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a news conference in Prague.
The Ukrainian general staff said early on Friday that retreating Russian forces were trying to evacuate wounded personnel and damaged military equipment near Kharkiv.
Tens of thousands of people have been killed, millions have been driven from their homes and Russian forces have destroyed entire cities. Russia denies intentionally targeting civilians.
In the latest reported strike on civilians, Ukrainian officials said Russia had fired across the border, hitting a hospital in the northeastern Sumy region on Friday morning. Reuters could not independently confirm the report.
The centre of Kharkiv, which has been regularly bombarded, was hit by Russian rocket fire, wounding 10 people, including three children, Governor Oleh Synehubov said.
BREAKTHROUGH
The Ukrainians broke through in the east a week after Kyiv announced the start of a long-awaited counter-offensive hundreds of kilometres away at the other end of the front line, in the southern province of Kherson.
Ukrainian officials said Russia moved thousands of troops south to respond to the Kherson advance, leaving other parts of the front line exposed.
Russia’s RIA agency quoted Russian-appointed Kherson authorities as saying some Ukrainian troops were captured and some Polish tanks they were using were destroyed. Reuters could not verify those reports.
Ukraine has been using new Western-supplied artillery and rockets to hit Russian rear positions in the south, with the aim of trapping thousands of Russian troops on the west bank of the wide Dnipro River.
Zelenskiy is scheduled to speak to U.S. arms makers for the first time later in September, when he is expected to make an appeal for more weapons.
Washington has already provided more than $14.5bn in military assistance to Ukraine since the invasion.
Separately, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Friday shelling had destroyed power infrastructure in the southern Ukrainian city of Enerhodar where staff operating the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station live, posing a growing threat to the plant. (Source: Reuters)

09 Sep 22. Zelenskiy to appeal directly to U.S. defense companies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is scheduled to speak to U.S. arms makers and military leaders on Sept. 21, when he is expected to make an appeal for more weapons for his country’s defense against Russia, according to an advance notice of the speech seen by Reuters. Zelenskiy was set to speak by video link before a conference hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association in Austin, Texas, in his first-ever speech to the U.S. defense industry. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s minister of defense, was also slated to appear at the Future Force Capabilities conference and appeal for support for the country’s fight against Russia’s invasion, now more than six months on.
The association’s members include Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX.N) and Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N), which jointly produce Javelin antitank weapons that have been used by Ukraine.
Those companies and other top weapons makers, including Boeing Co (BA.N), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N), General Dynamics Corp (GD.N) and L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX.N), were present at an April meeting called by the Pentagon to discuss Ukraine’s weapons needs. read more
Ukrainian forces were charging through an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east on Friday after bursting through the frontline in a surprise breakthrough that could mark a major turning point in the war. read more
Ukraine would like to receive an additional 50 to 80 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from foreign partners, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, said on Friday.
The latest U.S. weapons aid package includes more ammunition, humvees and anti-tank systems.
Washington has already provided more than $10bn in military assistance to Zelenskiy’s government since Russian troops invaded on Feb. 24. (Source: Reuters)

09 Sep 22. Ukraine blindsides Russia with northeastern thrust at supply hub.
Summary
• Kyiv makes inroads into Russian lines in east
• Russian-installed official admits ‘substantial victory’
• Blinken says Putin will likely keep sending troops
• Ukraine touts ‘tactic of a thousand cuts’
Ukraine’s rapid territorial gains have caught Russia off guard at a vulnerable section of their front line in an attack that threatens an important supply hub used by Moscow in the east, military analysts said.
The surprise advance was Ukraine’s most dramatic of the war so far and came in northeastern Kharkiv region hundreds of kilometres from the southern Black Sea region of Kherson where the brunt of a Ukrainian counteroffensive was expected. r
Moscow has long held around a fifth of Ukraine’s territory in the south and east. It heavily reinforced its troops in the south as Kyiv talked up plans to attack there in recent months, but that left Russian forces exposed elsewhere, said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan military consultancy in Poland.
After days of withholding battlefield developments, Ukraine said on Thursday that its forces had burst through Russian lines in the Kharkiv region that borders Russia, advancing up to 50 km (30 miles) and capturing dozens of settlements.
“It’s an opportunistic attack that’s really caught the Russian forces by surprise. It could actually become something quite significant if the Ukrainians are able to push on and take the (city) of Kupiansk,” said Neil Melvin of the RUSI think tank.
Kupiansk is a rail hub on the way to the key Russian-held outpost of Izium from where Moscow has anchored some of its main operations in the partially-occupied eastern region of Donetsk whose full capture the Kremlin has prioritised.
Civilians were being evacuated from Kupiansk and Izium, a Russian-appointed local official, Vitaly Ganchev, said after Russia’s defence ministry posted footage of trucks and armoured vehicles it said were heading to the Kharkiv region.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War predicted Kyiv’s forces would likely recapture Kupiansk within 72 hours.
“That (gain) would then threaten an encirclement of Russian forces in Izium, so it could become quite a blow for the Russians in Donetsk (region). There is a chance to have a strategic breakthrough on the Donetsk front,” Melvin said.
Ganchev said earlier that the breach was a “substantial victory” for Kyiv in a surprising acknowledgment broadcast on state television in Russia after months in which Moscow has said its “special military operation” is going to plan.
But many in the West still predict a long war of attrition.
“This is likely to go on for some significant period of time,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday. “President Putin has demonstrated that he will throw a lot of people into this.”
‘A THOUSAND CUTS’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address that Ukraine had retaken more than 1,000 square km (385 sq miles) of territory in the south and east since Sept. 1.
Previously the battlefield’s frontlines had not changed significantly since Russia claimed to have captured the eastern Luhansk region in early July.
“The general frontline situation resembles a stalemate, but perhaps we are seeing the first signs that the balance of power is shifting towards Ukraine,” Muzyka said.
He said that neither Ukraine nor Russia had the manpower and equipment to conduct a large-scale, combined arms counteroffensive.
“We are going to see probing attacks, limited incursions into certain areas. Depending on how they play out, we will see more movement or more advances, or counterattacks,” he said.
Dale Buckner, CEO of security firm Global Guardian, said “we do not believe the Ukrainians will be able to take entire sections of the Russian-occupied territory by spring of 2023, but will have limited success with smaller tactical objectives.”
Buckner said that Russian supply lines were now being stretched from Luhansk to Kherson, providing the opportunity for a surprise attack on the poorly defended front line in and around the Kharkiv region.
“This is the first real validation of Ukraine’s ability to counterattack—but with limited success. It does change the path of the conflict moving forward. The Russians now have an expanding challenge of defending the terrain they have taken,” he said.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, told Reuters that Ukraine had significantly stepped up attacks on Russian logistics infrastrucure and supply corridors.
“We are pushing on their army in all directions, there isn’t one particular one. We are using the tactic of a thousand cuts. Kharkiv, Kherson, Melitopol directions, as well as Donetsk and Luhansk – they are a priority,” he said.
He said Moscow’s offensive had stopped and that Russia was switching to defence.
“Russia is opening defence in all directions, lost at where to send their reserves. They are trying to guess where our main targets will be, and redirect their reserves, including artillery capabilities, to those directions,” he said. (Source: Reuters)

09 Sep 22. Russia launches ‘revenge’ attacks on Ukrainian cities after losing territory. Russia launched revenge attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities on Friday in an apparent retaliation to Ukraine’s advances in the south and east, Ukrainian officials said.
Three children were among at least 10 people wounded when the centre of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, came under Russian rocket fire.
Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said the attack was revenge for the success of Ukraine’s armed forces.
“For every success of Ukraine’s armed forces, for every victory, Russians … answer with strikes on innocent people,” Mr Yermak wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier announced that Ukrainian troops had “liberated dozens of settlements” and reclaimed more than 400 sq miles of territory from Russian forces in the east and south in the past week. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

09 Sep 22. Department Moves Quick to Replenish Weapons Sent to Ukraine. Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the United States embarked on a long-term commitment to provide Ukraine with the tools and equipment it needs to defend its sovereignty. Since that time, more than $14.5bn in assistance has been committed to Ukraine.
Some of the assistance provided has been new and purchased on contract from defense industry manufacturers as a part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. But much of the equipment, some $12.5 billion worth, has been provided as part of presidential drawdown authority. That means things such as Javelin and Stinger missiles, HIMARS rocket launcher systems, and Switchblade unmanned aerial systems, for instance, have been pulled directly from existing U.S. military inventory to be sent overseas.
Because so much gear has been pulled from U.S. military units, that equipment must now be replaced in order to sustain America’s own readiness, and the Defense Department has already contracted with an array of manufacturers to give back to military units what was taken from them in order to support Ukraine.
“As we work with industry to accelerate production on both replenishment systems and direct procurements under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative or USAI, we’re using a number of tools to get the funding moving, and the contracting happening quickly,” Bill LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said during a briefing today at the Pentagon.
Already, about $1.2 billion in contracts are underway to replenish U.S. military stocks for weapons sent to Ukraine, LaPlante said. That includes about $352 million in funding for replacement Javelin missiles, $624 million for replacement Stinger missiles, and $33 million for replacement HIMARS systems.
Another $1.2 billion in contracts are underway now for equipment promised to Ukraine under USAI, including for things like 155mm ammunition, Switchblade unmanned aerial systems, radar systems and tactical vehicles.
The Department is expediting these efforts by using undefinitized contracting actions, or UCAs, to get industry working on contracts before they are definitized, LaPlante said.
“You can put a UCA together within a week, and we’re doing that,” he said. “We’re also making use of indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contracts, or IDIQ. If you have IDIQs, and we have many of them, what you can do is just add task orders to them very quickly to get equipment on contract.”
In late April, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III participated in the first meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group where leaders from about 40 nations met to discuss both current and future efforts to provide support for Ukraine and to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty going forward. Today, the contact group includes about 50 nations, and the group concluded its fifth meeting just yesterday in Germany.
Now, as a kind of offshoot of the contact group, LaPlante said he will meet Sept. 28 with the national armaments directors from other contact group nations to discuss how the global defense industrial base can continue to support Ukraine both now and into the future.
“Right now we have three kind of themes — but this will evolve as we build the agenda,” LaPlante said. “The first is comparing notes and giving situation reports on ramping up production of key capabilities. We have a lot to learn from each other.”
Also on the agenda is developing a global picture of the defense supply chain, he said.
” what are we seeing in the supply chain … the typical things in the supply chain are microelectronics and the obsolescence of them, things like ball bearings even, and solid rocket motors other sensors,” he said. “We want to compare notes on what people are seeing in their supply chain and what answers people have had.”
Finally, he said, a topic of discussion will be to build both interoperability between systems and also to increase interchangeability as well. “That is the ability for us to take a munition from one country and use it in a weapons system of another, and vice versa.
Just yesterday, the Defense Department announced a new presidential drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $675 million. The package includes, among other things, more munitions for HIMARS, four 105mm Howitzers with 36,000 accompanying rounds, additional high-speed anti-radiation missiles, and 1.5 million rounds of small arms ammunition, said Sasha Baker, the deputy under secretary of defense for policy.
“This represents the 20th drawdown package we’ve provided to Ukraine,” said Baker. “It includes equipment … the Ukrainians have already demonstrated, in many cases, that they can use to great effect.”
The latest security assistance package brings the total amount of U.S. assistance to Ukraine since the February invasion to more than $14.5 million, Baker said.
“We think this underscores our unwavering support for Ukraine as it continues to defend its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression,” Baker said. “We believe, at the end of the day, that Russia’s efforts have not succeeded and will not succeed. And when it comes to helping Ukraine to defend itself, and when it comes to making sure that there is significant pressure on Russia to end this conflict, making sure that our own alliance is as strong and as resolute as it can be to deter Russian aggression.”
That unity of effort and resolve, Baker said, was evident in the most recent meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and has been evident all along as demonstrated by the Ukrainian people. (Source: US DoD)

09 Sep 22. Zelenskiy says Turkish drone maker to build Ukraine factory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday met with the head of Turkish defence firm Baykar and said the company would set up a factory in Ukraine to build unmanned aerial vehicles.
Baykar’s Bayraktar TB2 drone has been hugely popular in Ukraine, where it helped destroy many Russian artillery systems and armoured vehicles.
“We discussed the details of the construction of the Baykar factory in Ukraine and the production of new goods using Ukrainian components,” Zelenskiy said in an online post after meeting Baykar
A video posted online showed Zelenskiy giving Bayraktar the Ukrainian Order of Merit. In return, Zelenskiy received a traditional embroidered Ukrainian shirt featuring a drone.
Russia has previously complained to Turkey over its sale of the drones to Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)

09 Sep 22. Austin: Czech Republic Is A ‘Vital’ NATO Ally. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III discussed the situation in Ukraine, aid to that embattled country and the defense cooperation agreement with the Czech Republic with Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova, today.
The meeting followed the very productive Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting yesterday at Ramstein Air Base, Germany.
Cernochova said the United States underpins collective defense efforts in Europe. “The massive support that the United States has been providing to Ukraine, shows yet again that America is the indispensable leader of the free world,” she said through a translator at a Ministry of Defense news conference. “And I would like to thank sincerely to Secretary Austin, and to citizens of the United States of America for their continuing willingness to defend free world and to defend Europe.”
For his part, Austin said the Czech Republic is a vital NATO ally, and that “the United States remains steadfast in our commitment to the defense, freedom and sovereignty of our allies. That’s especially important as Russia continues its cruel and unprovoked war of choice against Ukraine. The Ukrainian people are fighting heroically, to defend themselves from Russian aggression. And they are rightly demanding to live in freedom and to shape their own future to not have it be dictated by Russia.”
At the Summit in Madrid in June, NATO leaders recognized that Russian aggression is the most significant and direct threat to the security of our allies and to peace and stability in Europe. “So today, the minister and I had a highly productive discussion on strengthening our collective defense in response to Russia’s reckless aggression,” Austin said.
The United States and the Czech Republic are steadfast in their support for Ukraine, both Austin and Cernochova said. “We’re all determined to help Ukraine defend itself for the long haul and nations of goodwill from around the world are standing united in support of Ukraine’s right to defend itself, its citizens and its territory,” Austin said.
The two leaders also discussed the bilateral defense cooperation between the two nations as well as the Czech Republic’s ongoing modernization of its military. This will increase interoperability not only with the United States, but all NATO allies.
The Czech Republic is taking an active part in NATO defense and deterrence efforts. The Czech military is a framework nation for the new NATO Battle Group being established in neighboring Slovakia. There are Czech service members serving in the battle groups in Latvia and Lithuania, and Czech pilots also participate in the NATO air policing mission.
Austin emphasized that the alliance does not seek confrontation with Russia. NATO is — and always has been — a defensive alliance, he said. NATO is not a threat to Russia. “But our defensive alliance — as it always has — will protect every inch of NATO territory,” he said.
Austin was asked about the end game in Ukraine and he said that it is “always dangerous to make predictions about a war or conflict.”
The goal is to help Ukraine defend its people and national sovereignty, and it is not up to the United States to define the goal. “We know that the Ukrainian leadership will have the strongest voice in that respect,” he said.
“We’ve all been impressed by what we’ve seen — their willingness to stand up to a much larger, much stronger force, and be effective in their efforts,” Austin continued. “We’ve been inspired by their courage and their commitment. And … coming out of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting yesterday, I think … we continue to be inspired by what we see from the international community in terms of a willingness to support Ukraine.” (Source: US DoD)

09 Sep 22. Ukraine appeals for $17bn emergency fund as winter looms. Prime minister Denys Shmyhal urges ‘international partners’ to aid with shielding citizens from cold weather and reconstruction. Ukraine has appealed for foreign support to fund an emergency $17bn infrastructure package as the country prepares for the onset of winter. Prime minister Denys Shmyhal on Friday called for help to cover a “first stage, rapid recovery” package, including $3.4bn needed immediately to shield citizens from the impact of colder weather. Average temperatures in Ukraine typically fall from 20C in summer to minus 3C in winter, with an average of minus 7C in some regions, according to the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. Shmyhal said “the mobilisation of joint resources of the Ukrainian government and international partners” was needed after a meeting on Friday with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in Brussels. The call follows the publication on Friday of a fresh economic assessment from Kyiv, produced with the World Bank and the commission, which puts the cost of damage inflicted by Russia between its invasion on February 24 and June 1 at $97bn. The cost of reconstruction and recovery from that damage is estimated to be $349bn. A third of Ukraine’s population has been displaced by the war, with 6.8mn residents having left the country and a further 6.6mn people internally displaced.
Arup Banerji, the World Bank’s regional director for eastern Europe, said the bank was “terribly concerned” about the arrival of winter. “The damage that Ukraine has suffered has been just staggering,” said Banerji. “Ukraine’s winter season starts on October 15 and can be really harsh. This could be quite devastating given that many houses have windows and doors missing and there are so many internally displaced people.” Banerji praised the international community for providing about $1.5bn a month to support Ukraine’s budgetary needs, but said commitments made to date ran only as far as the end of 2022. Foreign support for Kyiv “has been on and off from different actors at different times, although right now it is coming through strongly . . . but our attention has to turn now to 2023. Discussions have begun but right now no commitments have been made by any partners of Ukraine”, he added. The EU promised Ukraine €9bn in budgetary support in May, but only about €1bn has been disbursed. Kyiv is running budget deficits of about $5bn a month and has cut all but essential spending in an effort to continue paying pensions and salaries to essential workers. Von der Leyen said on Friday that €5bn was “in the pipeline” from the EU, on top of €10bn already mobilised in financial, humanitarian, emergency and military assistance. “Ukraine is fighting for democracy and our common values,” she said. “The EU cannot match the sacrifice Ukraine is enduring, but we are mobilising all our instruments to address the most immediate needs, including for housing for internally displaced populations and to repair critical infrastructure.” (Source: FT.com)

09 Sep 22. Russia: Regional Elections.
Key Takeaways
• Regional elections around 15 Russian federal subjects will take place on 11 September, in the first electoral test for the Kremlin since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. The carefully managed and now openly authoritarian Russian democracy means the ruling United Russia party is almost certain to consolidate its near monopoly on legislative and regional power.
• Both open repression and widespread apathy will in equal measure mitigate the threat of major anti-government protests during this week’s vote, with nascent opposition to the war in Ukraine highly unlikely to translate into physical or even digital opposition to the Kremlin.
• Nevertheless, regionalism, ethnic tensions and deteriorating socio-economic conditions will remain key trigger points in the months ahead, which could yet drive moderate anti-Kremlin sentiment as Western sanctions begin to bite and the war in Ukraine drags on.
Context

On 11 September, Russian regional elections will take place. 15 Russian regions (federal subjects) will elect new governors, while municipal polls will be held in Moscow, where 1502 seats are up for election. Amid the war in Ukraine and clampdown on descent, the ruling United Russia party is almost certain to secure its already dominant position in almost all regional municipal and legislative chambers across the country.

Nevertheless, it will be the first electoral test for the Russian government since the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, and is set to be a much more profoundly authoritarian exercise than previous elections, where some form of opposition was acknowledged. The Kremlin temporarily considered suspending this week’s regional elections in April 2022, amid concerns over growing social tensions due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. However, they are set to go ahead on Sunday, and the Kremlin will likely present them as a clear reflection of public support for United Russia and the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.
United Russia will dominate in all polls during a more openly controlled election than previous votes
Given the managed nature of Russian democracy, there is little scope for any surprise results. This stands in contrast to previous elections, where the Kremlin begrudgingly permitted systemic and non-systemic opposition (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 16 September 2020). During the most recent State Duma elections in September 2021, Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) promoted their “Smart Voting” initiative, whereby anti-Kremlin voters were encouraged to vote for the candidate most likely to challenge the United Russia candidate. This achieved some modest success, with the Communists increasing their vote share as a result, though United Russia ultimately still retained their supermajority in parliament. However, with Navalny now in jail and many of his most politically active supporters in exile, arrested or likely to remain silent for fear of reprisals, there is no coordinated campaign to challenge the ruling United Russia party during this week’s elections.
The systemic opposition is similarly unlikely to pose any challenge to United Russia. Nevertheless, candidates from the Communists (KPRF), the centre-left A Just Russia — For Truth, the far-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), the far-right Rodina and the relatively newly established ‘liberal’ New People (NL) party will contest various seats and gubernatorial races. The Communist party remains the largest systemic opposition party in Russia, but under its current leader Gennady Zyuganov, it will not pose a serious challenge to the Kremlin and United Russia, despite some grassroots calls for more overtly communist and confrontational politics. Regardless, recent polling conducted by Levada Centre clearly shows an overwhelming lead for United Russia, with voter apathy and fear, ballot stuffing and the roll-out of online voting highly likely to make managing the results even easier than in previous elections.

In May Putin appointed five loyalists as acting governors of five regions, following the resignations of their predecessors. These loyalists, three of which are members of United Russia, are highly likely to be elected as governor in their respective region. Rather than engaging in outright fraud during the vote count, which was an important factor in sparking protests in the wake of the 2011 elections to the State Duma, authorities have opted for preventing opposition parties and candidates from registering. In the absence of a Navalny-style ‘Smart Voting’ system, this alone will likely ensure pro-Kremlin governors are elected.

Regionalism and ethnic tensions will remain key issues impacting local politics amid historic anti-Moscow activism

This year arguably saw the Kremlin complete the centralisation of the Russian state, with the abolishment of the head of the Tatar Republic’s status as ‘president’ of the region in August. The change means Vladimir Putin is now the only person in Russia to claim the title ‘president’, and ultimately marked the death knell of federalism in the country, as Tatarstan had often been considered the last example of Russian federalism.
Russia is still officially a federation, but the Kremlin only pays lip service to the autonomy of regional parliaments and governors. While regional governors have less power than previously, the Kremlin’s need to raise volunteer battalions and maintain support for the war in Ukraine has increased the importance of loyal governors across the country, particularly in regions with traditionally anti-Kremlin leanings. As such, the gubernatorial races are likely to be heavily managed, with the roll-out of online voting facilitating easier vote rigging to ensure loyalty in otherwise Moscow-critical regions.
Despite and in part because of this growing centralisation, regional issues have in the past been the most serious catalyst for anti-government unrest in Russia. For example, in 2020 major anti-centralisation unrest saw hundreds of demonstrators arrested in the far-eastern region of Khabarovsk following the arrest of popular LDPR governor Sergei Furgal. Other regional issues have also loomed large in non-Slavic majority federal subjects. In this respect, there are a number of gubernatorial votes to watch in the upcoming election, which carry a slightly higher, but ultimately still low, likelihood of unrest or expressions of anti-Kremlin sentiment.
The first will be the vote in Buryatia, where United Russia candidate Alexey Tsydenov stands for re-election. In July local politicians established the Free Buryatia Foundation, an anti-war movement comprising of activists of the Buryatian ethnic minority, with similar dynamics at play in other key gubernatorial locations, including non-Slav majority Udmurtia and Mari El. As frequently monitored in our Ukraine reporting, Muslim-majority Buryatia has suffered the highest casualty rate of any Russian federal subjects during the course of the war, with the exception of fellow Muslim-majority state Dagestan. By contrast, majority ethnic-Russian regions have so far produced far fewer such units to be deployed to Ukraine, reinforcing an emerging ethnic discrepancy.
This will remain a key trend to watch going forward, as perceptions of disproportionate ethnic sacrifice during the Soviet-Afghan war arguably fed into the nationalist movements that helped precipitate the collapse of the Soviet Union. While it remains highly unlikely at this stage that such dynamics will seriously threat the stability of the Russian Federation, the issue increases the likelihood of anti-war unrest in these ethnic minority regions, as well as risking further desertions or refusals to fight at the front. Regardless, Moscow’s repressive domestic policies will likely mitigate the threat of serious domestic unrest to a significant extent in the months ahead. However, as the war drags on and socio-economic conditions deteriorate, narratives of ethnic minorities being deployed as cannon fodder to preserve Slavic lives could become a compelling and powerful message in historically anti-Moscow regions.

Major anti-government unrest remains highly unlikely amid the Kremlin’s crackdown on all dissent

Despite these regional dynamics, large-scale civil unrest remains highly unlikely during and around this week’s elections. Robust security measures amid the war in Ukraine and authoritarian crackdowns will likely pre-empt nascent protest movements before they materialise. Public criticism of Russia’s war in Ukraine remains heavily repressed, and while a small minority have expressed opposition to the war with single-person pickets, widespread apathy and fear of reprisals means major anti-war unrest is highly unlikely. While polling data from Russia remains inherently unreliable, Levada Centre data at the very least shows a consistent majority of Russians publicly supporting the war in Ukraine. And with scrutiny over voters expected to be extremely high during this week’s vote, it remains unlikely that a major anti-war constituency will martial votes to challenge United Russia.
Nevertheless, considering the dramatic Russian setbacks in eastern Ukraine this week, with Ukrainian forces threatening to envelop a major grouping of Russian forces in Kharkiv oblast, scrutiny of the war is set to increase over the weekend and in the coming weeks. While this is unlikely to precipitate major anti-war unrest, it will be an important trend to watch that is likely to impact hardliner factions’ support for the Kremlin. For further analysis of the devolving military situation for Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 9 September.

Forecast

This week’s regional elections are the first electoral test for the Kremlin and the ruling United Russia party since the invasion of Ukraine. However, the controlled nature of Russian democracy, particularly amid the war, means United Russia are almost certain to dominate in all votes. In contrast to previous elections, there is now little scope for any form of serious systemic or non-systemic opposition.
Both open repression and widespread apathy are set to mitigate the threat of unrest in equal measure, as the Kremlin seeks to oversee a stable vote that consolidates its position ahead of the 2024 presidential election. While unrest is likely during this week’s polls, deteriorating socio-economic conditions could increase this threat over the winter and into 2023, particularly as Western sanctions begin to bite.
President Putin, likely aware of this potential, has already announced a 10 percent increase in pensions and the introduction of a minimum wage, which will alleviate the impacts of the war on living standards in the short term. However, the widening economic disparities evident between Moscow and the federal regions may also serve as a catalyst for regional unrest in the longer term, particularly if living standards deteriorate over the winter. Data published by Bloomberg indicates that unemployment could reach as high as nine percent by the end of 2022, which will exacerbate the tenuous financial position of many Russian families, given the fact that the majority of Russian households no longer have any savings.
These socio-economic issues and their intersection with regional and ethnic identities are ultimately the most important priorities of Russian voters, and are much more likely to trigger anti-Kremlin unrest than political factors or opposition to the war. Nevertheless, if the current military setbacks in Ukraine precipitate an order for general mobilisation in the months ahead, the distinction between socio-economic and political issues will likely blur, which will drive the threat of much more serious anti-government unrest over the winter or in 2023.
(Source: Sibylline)

09 Sep 22. NATO calls on allies to supply winter uniforms for Ukrainian army. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged allies on Friday to supply Kyiv with winter gear such as clothing, tents and generators to enable Ukrainian troops to keep on fighting Russia’s invasion in the cold season. Average winter temperatures are below freezing for much of the country and it is not unusual for temperatures to drop to minus 15 degrees Celsius.
“The winter is coming, it’s going to be hard, and therefore we need both to continue to supply weapons and ammunition but also winter clothing, tents, generators and all the specific equipment which is needed for the winter,” Stoltenberg told reporters after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels.
“Partly because the size of the Ukrainian army has just increased so much, they need more of this kind of winter equipment, and NATO is particularly focused on how we can provide tens of thousands of, for instance, winter uniforms,” Stoltenberg added.
On Friday, swiftly advancing Ukrainian troops were approaching the main railway supplying Russian forces in the east of the country, after the collapse of a section of Russia’s front line caused the most dramatic shift in the war’s momentum since its early weeks.
(Source: Reuters)

08 Sep 22. Ukrainian forces advance deep into Russian lines in Kharkiv region – general. Ukrainian troops have recaptured more than 700 squarekm (270 square miles) of territory in the south and in the eastern Kharkiv region, where they advanced up to 50km (31 miles) into Russian lines and retaken more than 20 villages, a Ukrainian general said on Thursday.

The comments by Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov at a briefing were the most detailed public assessment so far of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Kyiv has so far declined to disclose many details so as not to compromise the operation.

“During defence operations to recapture lost territory in the Kharkiv direction, since the start of the week, Ukraine’s armed forces… have penetrated into enemy’s lines by a depth of up to 50 km,” Gromov said.

He did not say which settlements had been recaptured in Kharkiv region.

“The total amount of territory returned to Ukrainian control in the Kharkiv and Pivdennyi Buh directions stands at over 700 square kilometres,” he said.

Pivdennyi Buh is a river that runs through the southern frontline city of Mykolaiv before discharging in the Black Sea.

He said that Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 3 km (1.8 miles) on the Sloviansk front in the east and recaptured a settlement called Ozerne.

He singled out the role of Turkish-made Bayraktar drones.

“Enemy infantry and motorized artillery units unprotected by air defence systems become easy prey for our Bayraktars, the quantity of which is always increasing, thanks to our volunteers,” he said. (Source: Sibylline)

08 Sep 22. Military briefing: Rapid Kharkiv offensive shows Ukraine’s momentum Latest attack designed to trap Russian forces around Izyum, a strategic flash point in eastern Donbas region. On the morning of September 8, Vitaly Ganchev, a Russian-appointed administrative head of the Kharkiv region in occupied north-eastern Ukraine, boasted about how an attack by Ukrainian forces had been repulsed and taken heavy losses. The key city of Balkaliia, he told Russian state television, was “under our control”. By that afternoon, however, multiple videos posted on social media showed Ukrainian troops streaming across what Ganchev had earlier claimed was Russian-occupied territory. One video showed Ukrainian soldiers hoisting a flag above the town of Balkaliia. Another showed delighted pensioners welcoming in soldiers for pancakes. That evening, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian forces had taken more than 1,000 sq km of territory. “We are moving forward,” General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, wrote on Friday on Facebook. “We clearly know what we are fighting for and we will definitely win.” The Kremlin declined to comment on the offensive and referred questions about it to the defence ministry, according to Reuters. The rapid progress of Ukraine’s latest attack has threatened key Russian supply lines in the eastern Donbas region and comes a week after Kyiv launched a separate offensive in the south, around the town of Kherson. Both operations show Ukrainian forces, augmented with high-precision western weapons, taking the initiative after six months of being on the defensive. “We see success in Kherson now, we see some success in Kharkiv and so that is very, very encouraging,” US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said in Prague. (Source: FT.com)

09 Sep 22. Ukrainian forces threaten Russian supply lines after breakthrough.

Summary

Companies
Zelenskiy says forces have recaptured towns and villages
Blinken visits Kyiv with new U.S. aid package

Swiftly advancing Ukrainian troops were approaching the main railway supplying Russian forces in the east on Friday, after the collapse of a section of Russia’s front line caused the most dramatic shift in the war’s momentum since its early weeks.

In a video address, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said troops had “liberated dozens of settlements” and reclaimed more than 1,000 square km (385 square miles) of territory in Kharkiv region in the east and Kherson in the south in the past week.

Zelenskiy posted a video in which Ukrainian soldiers said they had captured the eastern town of Balakliia, which lies along a stretch of front stretching south of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.

The Ukrainian military said it had advanced nearly 50 km through that front after an assault that appeared to take the Russians by surprise.

It was the first lightning advance of its kind reported by either side for months, in a war mainly characterised by relentless grinding frontline battles since Russia abandoned its disastrous assault on the capital Kyiv in March.

Nearly 24 hours after Ukraine announced the breakthrough on the Kharkiv front, Russia had yet to comment publicly. The Kremlin declined to comment on Friday and referred questions to the Russian military.

Ukraine has not allowed independent journalists into the area to confirm the extent its advances. But Ukrainian news websites have shown pictures of troops cheering from armoured vehicles as they roar past street signs bearing the names of previously Russian-held towns, and Russian forces surrendering on the side of the road.

“We see success in Kherson now, we see some success in Kharkiv and so that is very, very encouraging,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a news conference with his Czech counterpart in Prague.

The Institute for the Study of War think tank said the Ukrainians were now within just 15 km of Kupiansk, an essential junction for the main railway lines that Moscow has long relied on to supply its forces on the battlefields in the east.

Since Russia’s forces were defeated near Kyiv in March, Moscow has used its firepower advantage to make slow advances by bombarding towns and villages. But that tactic depends on tonnes of ammunition a day reaching the front line by train from western Russia. Until now, Russia had successfully fended off Ukraine’s attempts to cut off that train line.

The Ukrainian general staff said early on Friday retreating Russian forces were trying to evacuate wounded personnel and damaged military equipment near Kharkiv.

“Thanks to skilful and coordinated actions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the support of the local population, advanced almost 50 km in three days.”

Tens of thousands of people have been killed, ms have been driven from their homes and Russian forces have destroyed entire cities since Moscow launched what it calls a “special military operation” in February to “disarm” Ukraine. Russia denies intentionally targeting civilians.

In the latest reported strike on civilians, Ukrainian officials said Russia had hit a hospital near the international border in the northeastern Sumy region on Friday morning. Reuters could not independently confirm the report.

“Russian aviation, without crossing the Ukrainian border, fired at a hospital. The premises were destroyed, there are wounded people,” regional governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said on Telegram.

BREAKTHROUGH

The surprise Ukrainian breakthrough in the east came a week after Kyiv announced the start of a long-awaited counter-offensive hundreds of km away at the other end of the front line, in Kherson province in the south.

Ukrainian officials say Russia moved thousands of troops south to respond to the Kherson advance, leaving other parts of the front line exposed and creating the opportunity for the lightning assault in the east.

“We found a weak spot where the enemy wasn’t ready,” presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said in a video posted on YouTube.

Less information so far has emerged about the campaign in the south, with Ukraine keeping journalists away and releasing few details.

Ukraine has been using new Western-supplied artillery and rockets to hit Russian rear positions there, with the aim of trapping thousands of Russian troops on the west bank of the wide Dnipro River and cutting them off from supplies.

Arestovych acknowledged progress in the south had not yet been as swift as the sudden breakthrough in the east.

Russia’s state news agency RIA quoted Russian-appointed Kherson authorities as saying some Ukrainian troops were captured during the counterattack and some Polish tanks they were using were destroyed. Reuters could not verify those reports.

The United Nations accused Moscow of denying access to thousands of prisoners of war, with the head of a U.N. human rights monitoring team in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner, describing documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of prisoners held by Russian forces and their proxies.

U.N. monitors had also documented incidents of torture and ill-treatment of POWs by Ukraine, which had given them unimpeded access, she said. Ukraine has said it will investigate any violations and take appropriate legal action.

Moscow denies abusing prisoners. Dozens of Ukrainian troops died in a fiery blast while being held by pro-Russian authorities in July in what Kyiv called a massacre. Moscow blamed Ukrainian shelling.

North of the battlefield, Russian missiles struck multiple areas in Kharkiv on Thursday, causing widespread damage and casualties, according to the regional prosecutor’s office.

“We are scared … You can’t get used to it, never,” resident Olena Rudenko told Reuters.

(Source: Reuters)

09 Sep 22. Ukraine liberates ‘dozens of towns’ as Russia evacuates wounded from some areas in east. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, posted a video in which Ukrainian soldiers said they had captured the eastern town of Balakliia near Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine. And video posted to a Ukrainian news aggregator appeared to show the Russians had left behind trucks, artillery and ammunition.

Ukrainian military officials said that Russia was trying to evacuate wounded soldiers from Vilkhuvatka, a village southwest of Kharkiv, and Borodoyarske in the southeast. The gain in territory will be a significant boost for Ukrainian morale while Russia, according to Western intelligence reports, has seen a huge number of casualties. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

08 Sep 22. Momentum Builds for Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group are even “more united and resolved to keep up our support for Ukraine’s right to defend itself.”

The secretary and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, briefed the media at the conclusion of the contact group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, today.

The nations of the group pledged to help Ukraine fight the battles it faces with Russia and build the force necessary to defend itself into the future.

Some fifty nations attended the meeting. Austin said the contact group arrived with momentum and left with more momentum. The group pledged to find “new and innovative ways to support Ukrainian military and Ukrainian people as they defend their country, their lives and their freedom,” the secretary said.

Austin announced the newest U.S. pledge to Ukraine of up to 675 m dollars of drawdown authority. This will provide missiles for high-mobility artillery rocket system, more 105 mm howitzers, artillery ammunition, up-armored Humvees, armored ambulances and much more.

The contact group heard from Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and Ukrainian Deputy Chief of Defense Lt. Gen. Yevhen Moisiuk. “It’s deeply meaningful to have them here with us in person as Ukraine begins its counter-offensive in Kherson, and I want to thank my brave Ukrainian colleagues for sharing their insights from the battlefield,” Austin said.

The secretary said the Ukrainians are making good use of the military capabilities partner nations have given them. He specifically spoke of the HIMARS and M270 rocket systems which have been effective in Ukraine’s push to regain sovereign territory that Russia took.

Russia is responding to the Ukrainian offensive “with a campaign of cruelty,” he said. “I’m especially concerned that Russia is creating … conditions around Ukrainian nuclear plant of Zaporizhzhia that’s deeply reckless, and it could have grave consequences,” he said.

The contact group does far more than just provide equipment and Austin also spoke of how partners are meeting needs for training, maintenance and sustainment. This will be key to success into the future, he said. “I want to especially thank the for establishing a basic training program for new Ukrainian recruits,” the secretary said. “Getting more trained professional soldiers into the fight is key especially as Russia sends more and more untrained soldiers into battle.”

He thanked Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia for reinvigorating their industrial bases to meet Ukraine’s self-defense needs. The three nations have coordinated production to supply Ukraine the ammunition, spare parts and materiel the country needs to continue the fight. Overall “we’re going to move even faster and push even harder,” Austin said. “So I’m proud to announce that in the next few weeks in coordination with NATO, United States will host a special session under the auspices of this contact group to bring together our senior national armaments directors. They will discuss how our defense industrial bases can best equip Ukraine’s future forces with the capabilities that they need.”

Ukraine’s fight against Russia is about more than simply repelling a Russian invasion, Austin said. It is about defending the international rules-based order that has preserved the peace since the end of World War II. “So the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine today and tomorrow. And along with our allies and partners, we will increase the momentum.”

Milley said the Ukrainians have withstood brutal assaults on their capital and other major urban areas. They have paid a heavy price with tens of thousands killed and wounded and about 15 m people displaced or having to flee the country. “The Ukrainian people have suffered tremendously and yet they remain a free, independent, sovereign,” the general said. “Ukraine remains strong and free because of the bravery of its people, the competence of its military, and the support the international community.”

The chairman said the Russians have achieved minor tactical success in various parts of eastern Ukraine. “But, so far, Russian strategic objectives have been defeated,” he said. “Despite being outgunned and outmanned, the Ukrainians have demonstrated superior technical proficiency and they’ve demonstrated a superior will to fight.”

The general said the Ukrainian offensive is in its early stages, and it is too early to give a full assessment. “But today, Ukraine is effectively using their fires to shape the ground maneuver as they continue their offensive in the south,” he said. (Source: US DoD)

08 Sep 22. China May Draw Lessons From Russian Failures in Ukraine.

Chinese president Xi Jinping has set a timeline for his nation’s military to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027 — just five years from now. Recent events in the Taiwan strait have some questioning the strategic situation and prospects of a near-term invasion.

Colin H. Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said that while China is very interested in expanding its sphere of political and military influence in the Indo-Pacific region, it’s likely going to be more cautious when it comes to a move as aggressive as an invasion of Taiwan.

“I do not think that China wants to put themselves in a position that Russia finds itself in today, which is invading a democratic neighbor — one that I think would generate an enormous amount of global sympathy,” Kahl said during a discussion Wednesday at the Defense News Conference 2022, adding China would risk broader military tensions at significant political and economic costs.

China might instead draw lessons from Russia’s experience invading Ukraine over the last six months, Kahl said.

“I would hope that they would draw the lesson from Russia’s experience that, ‘Hey, maybe … we shouldn’t do that,'” he said. “I don’t think that they’ve sped up their clock. … It’s no mystery that Xi Jinping has given his military until 2027 to develop the military capabilities to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — if he makes the decision to do that. But I’ve seen no indication that he’s made that decision to do so.”

Of greater concern is China’s increased aggression in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and other areas in the region, and how that increased aggressive action might lead to unintended consequences that could result from misunderstandings.

“As China becomes increasingly assertive in kind of asserting its prerogatives around Taiwan, … do they take the next step of trying to enforce those changes in the status quo in a way that runs the risk of an incident — an incident with the United States, and incident with one of our allies and partners?” Kahl asked. “We have seen the engage in, over the last year or two, … a trendline of increasingly unsafe and unprofessional encounters — both in … the skies and at sea.”

Now, Kahl said, the U.S. and its allies must watch out for aggressive actions by the navy and air force of the People’s Liberation Army that could run the risk of causing an international incident. In the meantime, he said, the U.S. will continue to operate in the Indo-Pacific as it always has.

“We’re not going to change our operating procedures,” he said. “We’re not going to do things that ratchet up tensions. We’re going to do things that assert our continued support for the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific and our support for our allies and partners, and not be backed away.”

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Defense Department identified that nation as an “acute threat,” which Kahl has further clarified as meaning “both immediate and sharp.” But he’s also now identified Russia as being “reckless” as well, considering the actions it’s taken after failing to achieve the goals it set for its invasion of Ukraine.

“I think that Russia is … a capable military power — perhaps not as capable, frankly, and conventional as some of us may have assessed six or eight months ago …,” he said. “But they’ve also demonstrated that they’re an extraordinarily dangerous and reckless power. And there’s a way in which … a weakened Russia becomes more dangerous on the international stage.”

In desperation, Kahl said, Russia has aligned itself more with and reached out to both North Korea and Iran for assistance. Moreso, he said, because Russia’s conventional forces are so heavily occupied in Ukraine, he suspects they will be forced to rely more now on unconventional capabilities such as nuclear, cyber and space, as well as misinformation and disinformation campaigns.

“Russia does not pose the challenge to the United States and the rules-based international order over the long term that China does,” he said. “But in the immediate term, it’s a very dangerous actor.” (Source: US DoD)

08 Sep 22. Moscow seeking Iran, North Korea arms? Show us proof, says Russia. Russia demanded at the United Nations on Thursday that the United States and Britain provide evidence to support their allegations that Moscow was seeking drones from Iran and rockets and artillery shells from North Korea to use in Ukraine.

“I would like to ask them now to either provide us with evidence or acknowledge that they are disseminating unreliable information,” Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the 15-member Security Council.

The United States has accused Iran of supplying drones to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine, which Tehran has denied. Washington also accused Moscow of being “in the process” of purchasing ms of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea, deputy U.S. Ambassador Richard Mills told the council.

“Russia is turning to Iran to supply UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and, in a clear violation of U.N. sanctions, to North Korea to supply ammunition,” Britain’s U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said.

Russia called the Security Council meeting on Ukraine – the body’s third in as many days – to discuss the supply of foreign weapons to Kyiv. The United States, Britain, France and others defended the bns of dollars in military assistance delivered to Ukraine since Russian forces invaded on Feb. 24.

“Russia’s claims that the United States and the ‘West’ is escalating and prolonging this conflict are false,” Mills said. “They are cynical attempts to deflect attention from Moscow’s role as the sole aggressor in what is unnecessary and brutal war, for which the world is paying a collective price.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin calls the invasion a “special military operation” to disarm its neighbor and attempt to preemptively protect his country’s security against the expansion of NATO, the Western military alliance.

Ukraine on Thursday hailed a lightning counteroffensive it said had recaptured swathes of its territory in the east and south, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the country to pledge further aid.

“We are very far still from the end of this destructive process,” Nebenzia told the council. “Western weaponry is not playing a decisive role on the battlefield, regardless of what the Ukrainians and their vassals are saying.”

Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya said: “We will fight against the occupiers until all the Russian soldiers who entered Ukraine to kill its people are defeated.” (Source: Sibylline)

08 Sep 22. Contact Group Aids Ukraine’s Current Battle, Looks to Long-term Assistance. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced President Joe Biden’s approval of the transfer of $675 m worth of U.S. military capabilities to Ukraine, but the emphasis of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, is on long-term assistance to the nation as it confronts the Russian invasion.

Austin convened the in-person meeting of the group saying the more than 50 nations involved are looking to intensify the momentum for aiding Ukraine.

Austin told the group that President Joe Biden had approved the latest tranche of U.S. assistance to Ukraine. It is the 20th drawdown of equipment from U.S. stocks for Ukraine since August 2021.

“The latest package includes more, 105-millimeter howitzers, artillery ammunition and, Humvees, armored ambulances, anti-tank systems, small arms and more,” he said. “And since our last meeting in July, many allies and partners have come forward with their own important new deliveries of advanced radars, tanks, and armored personnel carriers.”

Austin and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian defense minister, and Lt. Gen. Yevhen Moisiuk, Ukrainian deputy chief of defense, before the group convened. The Ukrainians gave updates on battlefield conditions in the country and their military needs.

This is the fifth meeting of the contact group, which held its first meeting at Ramstein in April. At that time, Ukraine had stopped Russian attacks on Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv.

“In late April, Russia shifted to massive artillery strikes against sovereign Ukrainian territory in the Donbas,” Austin said in introductory remarks. “And this contact group responded swiftly to the changing character of Russia’s war of choice.”

The United States committed unprecedented security assistance to Ukraine including Stinger anti-aircraft systems, armored personnel carriers, grenade launchers, Mi-17 helicopters, body armor, and ms of rounds of small-arms ammunition.

The secretary used the transfer of howitzers as an example of the assistance that has poured into Ukraine. “In April, the United States delivered our first batch of M-777 howitzers — introducing NATO-standard artillery pieces to Ukraine for the first time,” he said. “Today, the United States has delivered 126 of those howitzers. And along with countries around the world, we’ve increased the number of howitzer systems for Ukraine’s defenders by more than 18-fold.” This helped freeze the Russian offensive in the Donbas region.

Since then, more capabilities including 26 long-range rocket artillery systems and the associated guided multiple launch rockets have arrived.

“All these capabilities have demonstrably helped Ukraine fight back against Russia’s aggression,” he said. “And they have enabled Ukraine to resist Russia’s ongoing onslaught. So we have come a long way by working together.”

But more needs to happen. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities and civilians with missiles and artillery fire. But the nature of the war is changing again and Ukrainian forces have begun a counteroffensive in the southern part of the country, the secretary said.

“They are integrating the capabilities that we all have provided to help themselves to fight and reclaim their sovereign territory,” Austin said. “Today, this contact group needs to position itself to sustain Ukraine’s brave defenders for the long haul.”

The world needs to supply Ukraine the capabilities it needs to fight today, but it also needs the means and training to defend the country for the future and deter Russia. “It means moving urgently to innovate, and to push all of our defense industrial bases to provide Ukraine with the tools that it will need for the hard road ahead,” Austin said. “We’re here because we refuse to live in a world where big powers trample borders by force. Our support for Ukraine’s bedrock right to defend itself doesn’t waver based on any given clash.”

The war in Ukraine is changing, the secretary said, “and so is the mission of this Contact Group.”

The secretary said the group needs to consider long-term aid to Ukraine. “We’ll work together to train Ukraine’s forces for the long haul,” he said. “We’ll work together to help integrate Ukraine’s capabilities and bolster its joint operations for the long haul. We’ll work together to upgrade our defense industrial bases to meet Ukraine’s requirements for the long haul. And we’ll work together for production and innovation to meet Ukraine’s self-defense needs for the long haul.”

Ukraine is making progress against a much larger foe. “And every day, we see the resolve of the allies and partners worldwide who are helping Ukraine resist Russia’s illegal, imperial and indefensible war of conquest,” he said. “And we must evolve as the fight evolves.”

There have been significant contributions from many other nations. Britain has provided 2.3 bn pounds of equipment to Ukraine. Germany and Denmark have both announced significant packages of military assistance. Poland — a frontline state facing Russia — has transferred three battalions of 155 mm self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

Other contact group nations work not only on contributions, but on helping train Ukrainian service members. (Source: US DoD)

08 Sep 22. $675m in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine.

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $675m to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s twentieth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Capabilities in this package include:

Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Four 105mm Howitzers and 36,000 105mm artillery rounds;
Additional High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARM);
100 Armored High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWV);
1.5 m rounds of small arms ammunition;
More than 5,000 anti-armor systems;
1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
Additional grenade launchers and small arms;
50 armored medical treatment vehicles;
Night vision devices and other field equipment.

In addition, State Department notified Congress of our intent to make $2 bn available in long-term investments in Foreign Military Financing: $1 bn to bolster the security of Ukraine and $1 bn for 18 of Ukraine’s regional neighbors.

In total, the United States has committed approximately $15.2 bn in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $17.2bn in security assistance to Ukraine and more than $14.5bn since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24.

To meet Ukraine’s evolving battlefield requirements, the United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with key capabilities.

Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine September 8, 2022 In total, the United States has committed approximately $15.2bn in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021, including more than $14.5bn since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24. United States security assistance committed to Ukraine includes:

Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
Over 8,500 Javelin anti-armor systems;
Over 32,000 other anti-armor systems;
Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
126 155mm Howitzers and up to 807,000 155mm artillery rounds;
20 105mm Howitzers and 144,000 105mm artillery rounds;
126 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
22 Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment;
16 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition;
20 120mm mortar systems and 85,000 rounds of 120mm mortar rounds;
1,500 Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Four Command Post vehicles;
Eight National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions;
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
20 Mi-17 helicopters;
Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
40 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles with mine rollers; • Mine clearing equipment and systems;
Over 10,000 grenade launchers and small arms;
Over 60,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
Over 75,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
Approximately 700 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Laser-guided rocket systems;
Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
15 Scan Eagle Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
Up to 50 counter-artillery radars;
Four counter-mortar radars;
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Four air surveillance radars;
Two harpoon coastal defense systems;
18 coastal and riverine patrol boats;
M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing;
Tactical secure communications systems;
Thousands of night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
Commercial satellite imagery services;
Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear;
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
100 armored medical treatment vehicles;
Medical supplies to include first aid kits, bandages, monitors, and other equipment;
Electronic jamming equipment;
Field equipment and spare parts;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment. The United States also continues to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with additional capabilities to defend itself. (Source: US DoD)

08 Sep 22. Kim Jong Un cultivates closer ties with Vladimir Putin after war in Ukraine. North Korean leader deepens ties with Russia in bid to win support for his own strategic goals. North Korea has seized upon Russia’s international isolation following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to foster closer ties, threatening international efforts to pressure Pyongyang over its illicit nuclear weapons programme. US officials said on Tuesday that Russia has purchased “ms of rockets and artillery shells” from North Korea as western sanctions begin to choke Moscow’s supply of weapons. The disclosure is the latest sign of warming ties between the countries, after Pyongyang broke with Chinese policy in July and recognised the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in Russian-occupied Ukraine. That was followed last month by an exchange of letters between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Putin promising to “expand comprehensive and constructive bilateral relations with common efforts”. Analysts and western diplomats said Pyongyang was offering Moscow its support to secure reciprocal backing in the event of heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula. “Pyongyang sees in Russia’s increasing isolation from the west an opportunity to get Moscow deeper into its corner,” said Anthony Rinna, a specialist in North Korea-Russia relations at the Sino-NK research group. “If Kim doesn’t take Russia’s side explicitly now, there is no telling when he may have the chance to do so in future.” (Source: FT.com)

08 Sep 22. Belarus starts military exercises near border regions-defmin. Belarus has started military exercises by the city of Brest near the Polish border, its capital Minsk and the northeast region of Vitebsk, the defence ministry said on Thursday.

It said the exercises, which are set to last until Sept. 14, will practice “liberating territory temporarily seized by the enemy” and regaining control over border regions.

According to the ministry, the level of troops and military equipment involved in the exercise did not require them to provide notice under OSCE guidelines. (Source: Reuters)

07 Sep 22. Contact Group Meeting Signals Long-Term Support for Ukraine.

The meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group tomorrow will signal to Russian President Vladimir V. Putin that nations around the world are ready to support Ukraine for the long haul, senior defense officials told reporters traveling with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today.

The United States, its allies and partners have worked tirelessly to provide Ukraine the weapons and training its military needs to defend the country from Russia’s unprovoked attack and take back land lost to the invaders.

The contact group has grown to more than 50 participating members. Austin chairs the group. The group will hear directly from Ukrainian defense leaders.

“We’ve been having conversations over the past couple of months about the urgency of providing what Ukrainians need to defend , but also, … the capability to take the initiative and to set the terms for the battle and put the Russians back on their heels,” the official said on background.

Ukraine has been successful in pushing back the Russians in the southern part of the country and holding against attacks in the East. They are using not only high-end capabilities, but other asymmetric advantages they have, the official said.

This is the second time the contact group has met since it was founded in April, here at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. The monthly meetings — some in person as and some virtual — allow defense leaders to assess Ukraine’s needs and find capabilities the nation needs. The group also works to provide training for Ukrainian service members on these capabilities.

Now the focus will shift a bit, the official said, as Ukraine and its partners must think not only for today’s battles, but the future. “We’ve been talking to allies or partners about the need to think longer term,” the official said.

That’s because Russia’s Putin is counting on outlasting Ukraine and its allies. The Russian leader did not expect the outrage over the invasion of Ukraine and certainly didn’t expect the solidarity of purpose in supporting Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty. The Russians “didn’t expect the international community in general  — and certainly Europe and the United States, specifically — to come to Ukraine’s political, diplomatic, economic and military assistance,” the official said.

Ukraine pushed Russia back from its initial attack on the capital city of Kyiv. The Ukrainian military has held the line in the East. Now they are launching offensives in the south. Putin’s strategy now seems to be to count on the West getting tired of the conflict and becoming distracted, the official said.

“This meeting tomorrow will be an opportunity to signal very clearly that the United States and our partners … are actually in this for the long haul,” the official said.

This is because even if Russia leaves Ukraine tomorrow, there is no guarantee that Putin won’t try another invasion. Ukraine needs to be able to defend its sovereignty, and defense leaders will discuss “opportunities to plus up the defense industrial base, so that it can supply the kinds of capabilities Ukraine needs down the road,” the defense official said. This is more than just ammunition and supplies and basic training. It will include higher level and specialized training.

The contact group is evolving, said another senior defense official. It is focusing on the defense industrial base writ large with investments in sustaining the fight in Ukraine and in ensuring the equipment in Ukraine is maintained and remains capable.

Russia is having problems of its own and has turned to the pariah states of Iran and North Korea for drones and ammunition respectively. “My main takeaway of seeing the Russians needing to go to North Korea and Iran to help them resupply their capabilities is, again, the Russians should not fool themselves that they have greater staying power than Ukraine does,” the official said. ”I think it’s showing that there are cracks in Russia’s capacity to sustain itself, even though it controls and owns the vast majority of the legacy of the Soviet defense industrial base.”

Russia is having trouble in part because the industrial base is weak, but also because of export restrictions and the effect of sanctions on the country, the official said. (Source: US DoD)

07 Sep 22. Emerging evidence of further potential Russian violations and abuses of international law in Ukraine: UK statement at UN Security Council. Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the Security Council briefing on Ukraine.

Thank you President. I thank the previous speakers for their briefings, Under-Secretary-General DiCarlo, Assistant Secretary-General Kehris and Ms Oleksandra Drik for their briefings.

As we’ve discussed, today we meet to discuss emerging evidence of further potential Russian violations and abuses of international law.

We are deeply concerned by reporting by the UN, the OSCE and civil society organisations that Russia is systematically detaining, processing and deporting Ukrainian men, women and children, with chilling echoes from European history.

As we have heard, civilians reportedly face interrogation, body searches, stripping, invasive data collection, ill-treatment and torture while passing through ‘filtration’.

Those who are deemed most threatening are reportedly held indefinitely in detention centres, while others, including unaccompanied children, are forcibly deported to Russia. Some simply disappear.

So we call on the Russian Federation to allow the UN and other relevant international organisations immediate, full and unhindered access to those held in filtration camps and detention centres. And for these reports to be fully investigated to ensure those responsible can be held to account.

We are concerned, too, that Russia may in fact be using forced deportations and displacement in an attempt, forcibly, to change the demographic makeup of parts of Ukraine.

What does this tell us about Russia’s war?

First, it tells us about their method and their disregard for the rules that we agreed and observe here at the UN – the collective rules that bind us together. They act as if the Charter and international humanitarian law do not apply to them.

Second, it confirms this is not just an attempt to destroy Ukraine’s democracy, but also Ukrainian identity and culture. Alleged ‘Denazification’ is a cover for ‘de-Ukrainian-isation’ and annexation. Mass movements of Ukrainian people give the game away.

Finally, it confirms what has been abundantly clear over the last six months: Russia’s army is not being welcomed as it enters Ukrainian territory. This is a war of conquest, a war of occupation, a war of oppression, and a war to eliminate Ukraine.

So once again we call on the Russian Federation to observe fully its obligations under international law and to bring an end to its illegal invasion of Ukraine. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

06 Sep 22. Ukraine arms maker finds export interest in ‘combat-proven’ missiles. Ukraine’s defense industry is observing a spike in demand from foreign customers interested in securing weapons proven in combat against Russia’s invasion, according to representatives of leading Ukrainian defense group Ukroboronprom. “Our Skif man-portable, anti-tank missile system has already been exported to 10 countries around the world, and our Corsar light portable missile system has been exported to six countries,” Anton Pashynskyi, the chief business development officer at State Kyiv Design Bureau Luch, an Ukroboronprom offshoot, told Defense News at the MSPO defense industry show here.

“Right now, our company’s efforts are focused on supplying our weapons to the Ukrainian military, but we’re also in talks with customers from various parts of the world who are very much interested in our missiles’ capacities and would like to buy them when they are available,” he said.

Pashynskyi said that “a Middle Eastern country wants to buy our Vilkha multiple rocket launcher with guided missiles, and there is a potential Far Eastern country interested in buying Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles developed by our bureau.”

“These products are all combat proven and widely used by our military to fight against Russian invaders, it was a Neptune missile that sunk the Russian Moskva cruiser earlier this year,” according to the company representative.

The Ukrainian military sunk the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, on April 14.

Luch is currently developing a naval version of the Neptune missile, Pashynskyi said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

06 Sep 22. Training Key to Ukrainian Advantages in Defending Nation. Military capabilities are important, but new capabilities mean little if the troops fielding those weapons don’t know how or when to use them.

The United States, NATO allies and partners are working together to train Ukrainian military personnel on new systems and the tactics and techniques that make those weapon systems so effective.

This is a continuation of the training the Ukraine military has received since Russia first invaded the nation in 2014, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a press conference today.

Spotlight: NATO

“Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have received training since 2014, and that pace has accelerated following Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February. U.S. service members are providing Ukrainian soldiers with training on various weapons systems that we’re providing to Ukraine,” Ryder said. This includes maintenance and logistics training to ensure the systems stay operational, he said.

The United States has provided more than $11 bn in aid to Ukraine since January 2021. This includes systems like the Javelin anti-armor system, the Stinger anti-aircraft weapon, unmanned aerial systems, grenade launchers, howitzers, helicopters, tactical vehicles, counter-artillery radars, armored personnel carriers, high-mobility artillery rocket systems and ms of rounds of ammunition.

Russia began its brutal war on Ukraine with an incredible edge in men and materiel. Ukraine’s will and resilience was such that the Ukrainian military drove Russia away from its attacks on the capital of Kyiv and brought Russian advances in the Donbass region in the eastern part of Ukraine to a standstill. Now Ukraine has launched an offensive in and around Kherson Oblast, and Ryder said there are indications that the Ukrainian military is pushing forward.

Ukraine is being resupplied. Since replacing Soviet-era weapons systems, their capabilities are better now.

Meanwhile, “we do have indications that Russia has approached North Korea to request ammunition,” Ryder said. “I’m not able to provide any more detail than that at this point in time, but it does demonstrate and is indicative of the situation that Russia finds itself in, in terms of its logistics and sustainment capabilities as it relates to Ukraine.”

Last week, Russia also bought unmanned aerial vehicles from another rogue state: Iran.

Logistics and sustainment have never been a long suit for the Russian military, “so the fact that they’re reaching out to North Korea is a sign that that they’re having some challenges on the sustainment front,” the general said.

Training is responsible for Ukraine’s greatest advantage over the Russian invaders. The Ukraine military ditched the old Soviet style of tactics and began emulating the West, and that included building a competent and empowered non-commissioned officer corps. “Working with the Ukrainians in terms of NCO leadership is something that we have done,” Ryder said. “This is a strategic advantage in a lot of ways of the U.S. military and many Western militaries.”

Small Ukrainian units led by sergeants are making a difference on the battlefield. These units move faster and do more than the Russian enemies. The Ukrainian military — even in the exigencies of war — continue to stress NCO training, U.S. officials said. (Source: US DoD)

06 Sep 22. Russia risks ‘catastrophe’ by occupying Ukrainian nuclear plant. The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is operating on a knife edge and the risk of a disaster at Europe’s biggest atomic power station is rising, according to the head of the Ukrainian company that operates the facility. Petro Kotin, president of state-owned Energoatom, said that, on a scale of one to 10, the danger level was “between seven and eight, but that is optimistic and anything could happen at any time”. “In one minute we could be at 10,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. Ukrainian officials have continually stressed the risks of the Russian occupation at the plant, which has been at the centre of fighting since Vladimir Putin’s troops seized it in the early weeks of the war. Ukraine and Russia have since accused each other of risking disaster by shelling at and around the facility. In the wake of the latest strikes on Monday, the plant was severed from its connection to the wider Ukrainian electric grid for the first time, leaving it relying on its own power to run safety systems, Kotin said. Although Zaporizhzhia’s reactors are designed to withstand the impact of an aircraft, the fighting has threatened to disrupt the operations of its water cooling systems, increasing the risk of meltdown, Kotin warned. “This situation could bring us to nuclear catastrophe,” he said. The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Monday that Zaporizhzhia “continues to receive the electricity it needs for safety from its sole operating reactor” and that while the power was “deliberately disconnected” the line itself was not damaged. (Source: FT.com)

05 Sep 22. Germany to keep nuclear plants on standby in case of energy crunch. Economy minister says 2 out of 3 facilities set to close at end of year will now be available until April if necessary. Germany said that two of its remaining three nuclear power stations, which were all due to close at the end of the year, would be kept kept on stand-by to provide back-up in the event of a winter energy crunch. Robert Habeck, economy minister, said the Isar II plant in Bavaria and the Neckarwestheim facility in Baden-Württemberg would form an “operational reserve” until April, as Germany grappled with the fallout from Russia’s decision to halt the flow of gas into the country. This would ensure “that over the winter they can make an additional contribution to the electricity network in southern Germany in 2022-23, in case it’s necessary”, he said. The government, a coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and the liberal Free Democrats, had in recent months come under huge pressure to rethink its opposition to nuclear energy as the scale of Germany’s energy crisis emerged. Russia has indefinitely suspended the flow of gas through Nord Stream 1, the pipeline under the Baltic Sea that is the main conduit for Russian gas into Europe. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that supplies would not resume in full until the “collective west” lifted sanctions against Moscow imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. The Neckarwestheim nuclear power plant © RONALD WITTEK/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock The decline in Russian supplies has pushed gas prices to record levels, at a time when Germany is already battling high inflation and as fears of a cost of living crisis are growing. Germany has been forced to bring mothballed coal-fired power stations back online to cope with the energy crunch and opposition parties had insisted that the country keep all three remaining nuclear power stations online to help relieve pressure on the electricity system. But the Greens, a party which has its roots in Germany’s anti-nuclear movement, had strongly resisted any U-turn on atomic energy and insisted that the three plants be closed down on schedule at the end of the year. In July, the government ordered a stress test of the network to see what further measures were required to safeguard electricity supply. It said the reasons for the test were the increase in “uncertainty factors” such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, which had destabilised energy markets, and the summer drought and low river levels — one of the reasons why many of France’s nuclear plants are currently offline. The stress test had come to the conclusion that a crisis in the electricity system in the coming winter was “unlikely, but currently can’t be completely excluded”. For that reason, additional measures were needed to prevent shortages or blackouts caused by network stress situations. Keeping the two nuclear plants in reserve was one such measure. (Source: FT.com)

05 Sep 22. Ukraine ambassador pitches Hawkei delivery. The Commonwealth government has been encouraged to consider gifting a fleet of the patrol vehicles to Ukraine in support of the ongoing fight against Russia.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, has advocated for the delivery of 30 Thales-built Hawkei protected mobility vehicles (PMVs) to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Described as a “win-win” arrangement, the deal would enable the Australian Army to test the newly built vehicles in a live warzone before official deployment with the Australian Army.

“The Hawkeis are really impressive: they’re smaller, they’re faster, they’re nimble and they’re brand new,” Myroshnychenko told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age following a visit to Thales’ manufacturing facility.

“…In my mind, we could make use of 30 of those to test them in the battlefield, see how they perform, and we’ll provide invaluable feedback to the Australian defence forces for you to improve those vehicles.”

Ukraine’s battle-hardened experiences with the vehicles, Myroshnychenko added, would enable Australia to make the vehicles “more adaptable to a wartime environment”.

The Australian Army’s Hawkei platforms achieved initial operating capability in July 2021, following an extensive test and evaluation process.

Under the Commonwealth government’s $2 bn LAND 121 ase 4 project, 1,100 Hawkei vehicles and 1,058 companion trailers would be delivered to Australian Army and Royal Australian Air Force units for use in command, liaison, utility and reconnaissance roles. The vehicles have been specifically developed to meet the ADF’s requirements for survivability, mobility, payload, communications, usability and sustainability.

The 1st Battalion Royal Australian Regiment (RAR), based in Townsville, received the first tranche of vehicles in April 2020.

In addition to the Hawkei vehicles, Myroshnychenko went on to request a further 30 Bushmasters for Ukraine, building on the 60 Bushmasters and 28 M113 armoured personnel carrier (APC) vehicles already committed to Kyiv.

Thus far, the value of Australia’s military assistance to Ukraine totals approximately $388m, including 60 Bushmasters and 28 M113 APCs.

(Source: Defence Connect)

06 Sep 22. Milrem Robotics delivers the THeMIS UGV to Ukraine.

The European leading robotics and autonomous system developer Milrem Robotics delivered the THeMIS unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) suited for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and transportation of supplies to Ukraine.

The THeMIS equipped with stretchers for rapid CASEVAC was delivered to a Ukrainian charitable organization. Onsite training was provided upon delivery for the quick deployment of the system.

“Casualty evacuation is one of the most crucial and labour-intensive activities in conflicts. Traditionally, it takes several people to carry a stretcher and required medical equipment. However, it would require only one to operate a UGV, which can accommodate several wounded and a lot of equipment. This means that more personnel are available to help more people,” explained Captain (res) Jüri Pajuste, Defence R&D Director at Milrem Robotics.

The THeMIS UGV is a multi-mission vehicle with an open architecture that enables it to be rapidly configured from having a transport function to being weaponized, performing ordnance disposal, or supporting intelligence operations according to the nature of the mission.

THeMIS UGVs have been acquired by 16 countries, 8 of which are members of NATO, including Estonia, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the UK, and the US.

06 Sep 22. U.S. says Russia is buying artillery ammunition from N. Korea -report. U.S. intelligence has assessed that Moscow is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, the New York Times reported, on the heels of reports that the Russian military has begun using Iranian-made drones. U.S. officials said they could confirm that the New York Times reporting was accurate and that additional Russian purchases of North Korean military equipment were expected.

“The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing ms of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield in Ukraine,” an official said by email when asked about the paper’s report.

The official said the purchases indicated that the Russian military “continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions.”

“We expect Russia could try to purchase additional North Korean military equipment going forward,” said the official, who did not want to be identified by name.

The Times quoted U.S. government officials as saying that the purchases showed U.S.-led sanctions had begun to bite and to reduce Russia’s ability to sustain its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow has called a “special military operation”.

The paper’s report on Monday said the recently declassified intelligence provided no details about what was purchased, beyond saying that the items included artillery shells and rockets.

Last month, a U.S. official told Reuters that Russia’s Iranian-made drones had suffered “numerous failures”. The official said Russia most likely planned to acquire hundreds of Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Ukraine recently launched counteroffensives in several locations, including around Kherson, which Russia has occupied since early in the invasion. In preparation for those attacks, Ukrainian forces struck Russian supply areas, including those containing artillery and ammunition. Officials have said Western sanctions are limiting Russia’s ability to replace vehicles and weapons destroyed in Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)

05 Sep 22. Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted. Gazprom previously said it was halting flows through Nord Stream 1 because of a technical fault. Russia’s gas supplies to Europe will not resume in full until the “collective west” lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has said. Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, blamed EU, UK, and Canadian sanctions for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline. “The problems pumping gas came about because of the sanctions western countries introduced against our country and several companies,” Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency. “There are no other reasons that could have caused this pumping problem.” Peskov’s comments were the most stark demand yet by the Kremlin that the EU roll back its sanctions in exchange for Russia resuming gas deliveries to the continent. Gazprom, Russia’s state-run gas monopoly, said on Friday it would halt gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 because of a technical fault, which it blamed on difficulties repairing German-made turbines in Canada. The EU has already rolled back some sanctions against Russia explicitly to allow the turbines to be repaired. European leaders have said there is nothing to prevent Gazprom from supplying the continent with gas and has accused Russia of “weaponising” its energy exports. Peskov said Russia could not resume supplies in full until the west lifted the sanctions. He accused western countries of causing “turmoil” by denying Gazprom legal guarantees that the turbines sent for repair would be returned. But Russian officials have made little secret in recent weeks of their hope that the growing energy crisis in Europe will sap the bloc’s support for Ukraine. “Obviously life is getting worse for people, businessmen, and companies in Europe,” Peskov said. “Of course, ordinary people in these countries will have more and more questions for their leaders.” (Source: FT.com)

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