NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Ukraine Conflict – August 29th.

Military and security developments

26 Aug 24.

On 25 August, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine maintained their operational tempo by conducting a series of limited ground operations and artillery attacks in the vicinity of Slovyansk, Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and Kharkiv City. Similar operations also in combination with airstrikes were conducted in the vicinity of Kharkiv City. The operations are understood to have resulted in no Russian territorial expansion. Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, reported that Russian forces conducted approximately 200 air operations in Ukraine on 24 August, Ukraine’s Independence Day.
Similarly on the southern axis, Russian troops also conducted limited ground operations in the Kherson oblast, albeit resulting in no territorial gains. Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian forces near Zaporizhzhia and Bila Krynytsia, while missiles, including Smerch and S-300, reportedly targeted civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, in Mykolaiv City. Ukrainian forces, for their part, successfully destroyed various Russian warehouses and command posts.
In Kherson, Ukrainian armed forces shelled the Antonivsky bridge, which connects Kherson with Oleshky and Hola Prystan, to prevent Russian forces from transporting heavy military equipment and ammunition. Images shared on social media showed the damaged bridge and no vehicles in sight, suggesting that the resulting damage was sufficient to prevent Russian units from using it and consequently slow down their operations and transportation efforts.
Energoatom, the Ukrainian state’s nuclear company responsible for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, stated on 25 August that the plant’s two working reactor blocs were disconnected from the national power grid due to nearby forest fires allegedly caused by Russian shelling. According to Energoatom, the plant’s operational security system is still working normally. Russian forces blamed the incident on Ukrainian forces but provided no evidence to their claims. On 25 August, UK Ministry of Defence intelligence estimated that Russian forces will “exploit any Ukrainian military activity” near the nuclear power plant “for propaganda purposes”. The nuclear power plant remained disconnected as of the morning of 26 August. Besides, the cities of Energodar, Melitopol, and Kherson remained without power for several hours on 25 August due to disruptions to the power lines caused by the forest fire. Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, also claimed that all captured areas in the Zaporizhzhia region were also without water and gas.
According to a 25 August press release of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, the Foundation delivered 12 A1-CM Furia reconnaissance and artillery fire adjustment drones to four Ukrainian brigades in the east and south. Meanwhile, on 26 August, Taiwan’s DroneVision, a drone manufacturer, did not confirm whether it had provided its Revolver 860 drones to Ukrainian forces, following reports by Polish news outlet WP indicating that Taiwan had provided Ukraine with 800 Revolver 860 drones.
Attacks by alleged Ukrainian partisans against politically sensitive Russian targets in occupied territories continued. On 25 August, for example, the Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the headquarters for referendum preparations and for issuing Russian passports in Pryazovske, in Zaporizhia oblast, was attacked with explosives. Meanwhile, Russian authorities are speeding up the economic and educational integration processes of occupied Ukrainian territories with Russia.
On 26 August, Serhiy Haidai, the head of the Luhansk Regional Military-Civil Administration, Ukrainian forces killed 200 Russian paratroopers based at the Donbas Hotel in Kadiivka, Luhansk region. Ukrainian forces are understood to have targeted the Russian position with HIMARS missiles.
Meanwhile, the recruitment drive for volunteer battalions in Russia continued, but many have yet to hit their recruitment targets. Local media reported on 25 August that the ‘Orlovskyi’ volunteer battalion had moved to an unspecified base before its imminent deployment to Ukraine, while the ‘Shaimuratov’ and ‘Dostavalov’ volunteer battalions are expected to also soon deploy to Ukraine. However, while Russian forces in Ukraine will welcome additional manpower, it is unlikely that these volunteer battalions will lead to considerable combat successes.
On 26 August, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport extended temporary flight restrictions to 11 airports – namely Anapa, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Gelendzhik, Krasnodar, Kursk, Lipetsk, Rostov-on-Don, Simferopol, and Elista – until 4 September. The report provided no explanation, but Russia has closed off part of its southern and central airspace to civil aircraft since the launch of the invasion in February. Therefore the closure is likely designed to facilitate further Russian air operations in Ukraine, sustaining the relatively high tempo of airstrikes.
Ukraine: IAEA mission to potentially initiate permanent presence as continued shelling endangers nuclear safety. On 26 August, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, announced that an IAEA visit to Ukraine’s Zapoirizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) may result in the permanent presence of experts on site. The conditions of the IAEA’s planned mission to the ZNPP have been agreed by Ukraine and Russia, in coordination with the United Nations (UN). The announcement follows an incident on 25 August in which Ukraine’s state nuclear company, Energoatom, claimed that Russian shelling and subsequent nearby fires cause the ZNPP to be disconnected from the national power grid. The plant remains an area of contention between Ukrainian and Russian forces, with each side accusing the other of provocation and strategic use of the area. The grid remains offline while it is being connected to a nearby power plant with a backup power line in order to continue the operation of the plant’s cooling system. The risk of a major nuclear incident remains low, although continued shelling does endanger nuclear safety.

Political developments

On 25 August, the Belgian government announced that they are going to provide EUR 8m in non-lethal support to Ukraine, including the delivery of first aid kits, winter clothes, medicines, and night vision goggles. The financial assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces will be provided through NATO’s Comprehensive Assistance Package Trust Fund which was set up in 2016 after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Today, 26 August, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi said that the mission to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, conditions for which have been agreed by both Ukraine and Russia, could become permanent. The mission is currently scheduled to launch next week. The announcement came after the power plant was disconnected from Ukraine’s national grid yesterday due to cuts to the power lines. Subsequently, Grossi claimed that there are security incidents taking place at the nuclear power plant, “almost every day” and that he is ”determined to personally lead the IAEA mission to the plant in the next few days”.
On 25 August, the transport ministers of the United Kingdom and Ukraine signed a joint action plan. According to the plan, the United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with funds and engineers to help the country rebuild its airports, bridges, train network, ports and runways after the war.

Forecast

On 25 August, President Putin signed a decree to expand Russia’s military by 137,000 personnel from 1.9 million to 2.04 million from 1 January 2023, reinforcing our previous assessments that Moscow is struggling to recruit new members to its military. The decree does not specify how the number of military personnel will be increased, therefore forces could be mobilised either through conscription or voluntary service. Of note, Russia’s recent efforts to step up voluntary mobilisation have failed to lead to a significant increase in volunteers despite local administrations sending out summons to young men of military age to local military recruitment centres. Therefore, it is likely that the new decree entails conscription, however, the morale of newly recruited officers will almost certainly be low with increased chances of desertion, while their fitness quality and lack of combat experience will be well below that of professionals. Moreover, the origin and composition of conscripts – largely from the regions as usually youth in large cities, especially Moscow, avoid conscription – will likely worsen inter-regional relations and domestic stability by exacerbating local grievances. This will likely mildly undermine Russia’s domestic stability over the coming months and throughout 2023. Finally, the announcement also indicates that Russia is indeed preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine, expecting it to last well into 2023. The extension of closure of Russian airports, especially those closest to the border with Ukraine, is a de facto closure of Russian air space, and likely reflects its intention to keep up air operations, whether for reconnaissance or offensive purposes, in Ukraine. It is possible that the closure of these airports will be extended further. The provision of new drones from the Victor Pinchuk Foundation for the Ukrainian armed forces will likely lead to better reconnaissance and intelligence gathering capabilities, which will consequently result in improved fire accuracy against Russian targets. These will likely compound the anticipated operational benefits provided by the newly-announced arms package by the US, and most recently the UK. Nonetheless, in the longer term, Ukrainian forces will likely become increasingly reliant on donations from countries outside Europe due to the recent downward trend in European arms support to Ukraine.

Moscow-sponsored hackers’ targeting of Western governments and their private sector partners through Microsoft products will persist amid protracted conflict in the Donbas region. Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear has been utilising a new malware to target government and critical organisations in Europe, the US, and Asia using Microsoft’s operating system, according to industry reports on 25 August. This malware, dubbed MagicWeb, reportedly allows the hackers to “authenticate” themselves as anyone within a compromised network by, amongst other things, targeting the Active Directory Federation Services (ADFS) servers and replacing the legitimate DLL with their version. This is the latest Cozy Bear cyber campaign since the group began targeting NATO member states with cyber espionage-related activities through vulnerabilities in Microsoft’s 365 accounts (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 22 August 2022). Given the timing and geographic focus of these cyber campaigns, there is a realistic possibility that they at least partially aimed at exfiltrating intelligence about Western governments’ policies regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, with the protracted conflict in the Donbas region unlikely to be resolved for the foreseeable future, additional Moscow-sponsored cyber espionage campaigns targeting Western governments and their private sector partners, such as defence technology, are highly likely to emerge in the coming weeks.

25 Aug 24.

On 24 August, no confirmed ground attacks were reported in the direction of Siversk, though the city and its surrounding areas continued to remain under continuous artillery and air strikes. Pressure on Bakhmut also remains high, with Ukraine’s General Staff reporting that they have repelled Russian forces’ attempt to advance in the direction of Bakhmut, though limited operations southeast of Bakhmut were noted, as well as air and artillery strikes on Bakhmut itself and in its vicinity. Additionally, this morning, 25 August, Ukraine’s General Staff also reported that Kyiv repelled Russian attempts to advance in directions of Slovyansk and Avdiivka. Military progress is set to remain very slow in the Donbas following yesterday’s statement by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russia is slowing down the pace of its military operations in Ukraine.
Along the southern axes, Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast, but these did not result in any confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian assault operations towards Mykolaivka, and sustained their efforts to pressure Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian forces, meanwhile, persisted launching airstrikes to the northwest of Kherson City, and artillery and missile attacks (including S-300 and Kh-22 missiles) against Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Myoklaiv Oblasts, resulting in damage to civilian buildings.
Overnight, Ukraine also reported a Russian rocket attack near Kyiv, which struck the Vyshhorod district, with currently no fatalities reported. Rocket attacks also struck Khmelnytskyi in western Ukraine resulting in civilian injuries, but currently no casualties reported according to the Ukrainian media.
A Russia-appointed head of the State Security Administration of Mykhailivka, in Zaporizhzhia oblast, was killed on 24 August by a car bomb. The incident marks the latest in a series of assassinations of Russia-installed proxies in the occupied territories, reflecting the continued resistance and capability of pro-Ukrainian forces.
Overall, as anticipated Ukraine’s Independence Day saw an intensification of Russian missile strikes across the country, with Ukrainian Ministry of Defence official stating that Ukraine had been prepared for the developments considering that the entire society has been forced to exist in an “atmosphere of missile terror for six months.” Amongst the deadliest attacks was a strike on a train station in Dnipropetrovsk, which resulted in approximately 25 casualties and dozens of injuries.
Yesterday, US President Joe Biden officially announced a USD3bn military aid package for Ukraine. The package mainly includes air defence – including counter-UAV – and artillery systems. Among others, the package includes a maximum 245,000 155mm artillery rounds, six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions, unspecified laser-guided rocket systems, and VAMPIRE counter-UAS.
Russian regions continued their efforts to create volunteer units, with Altai Krai announcing five new units. While some units were designated as ‘battalions’, local media argued the designation exaggerated the actual size of the unit, which may possibly include approximately 100 people. Moreover, the Republic of Tatarstan’s Biznes Online reported that recruitment for such volunteer units declined throughout summer, underlining Russian inability to shore up both additional public support for the war as well as manpower. Regional volunteer recruitment drives are reportedly much higher than in Moscow City, a difference which may lead to inter-regional social tensions and intra-government challenges to not only bolster recruitment to sustain Russian operations in Ukraine, but also to maintain public support for the war.

Political developments

Today, on 25 August, Russian parliament is due to issue a special statement on Ukraine and “the threat to the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant” (ZNPP). This follows Moscow’s accusations that Kyiv is launching strikes at ZNPP, with Ukraine instead accusing Russia of exploiting the plant and planning a provocation that would justify more aggression. As such, with Russia previously stating that the plant could be shut down, the likelihood of this happening remains heightened as Moscow could make the decision to disconnect the ZNPP from Ukraine’s power grid, thereby effectively reducing electricity supplies to Ukraine. This remains a very likely scenario amid wider efforts to prepare for the annexation of Zaporizhzhia oblast, with the latest US intelligence indicating that “sham referenda” could be announced by the end of the week. For additional analysis on the threat to the ZNPP please see our Situation Update Brief – 18 August.
As anticipated, yesterday, during Ukraine’s Independence Day, Kyiv registered the highest number of air raid alerts since the start of the invasion in February, with a record 189 air raid notifications announced. However, the threat of major strikes against Kyiv or indeed against the decision making centres did not materialise, however it will nevertheless continue to remain elevated this week, with government employees in Kyiv advised to work from home for the rest of the week. Additionally, a notable uptick in shelling was also reported, with 58 settlements shelled, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. President Zelensky meanwhile vowed to continue the fight and reclaiming all of Ukraine’s territories amid the additional military support from the US, as well the UK, with Boris Johnson arriving in Kyiv yesterday on a surprise visit and announcing a GBP 54 m aid package.
The UK’s new military aid package includes the delivery of 2,000 drones and anti-tank loitering munitions to Ukraine, although the full list of weapon systems included in the package is not publicly available yet. Of the 2,000 drones, 850 will be Black Hornet nano-unmanned aerial systems (nUASs) which are procured jointly by Norway and the United Kingdom. The two countries are also providing spare parts and training for the use of the nUASs.

Forecast

Yesterday, Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu announced that Moscow will “deliberately” slow down the pace of its military offensive, claiming that the decision was made in order “to avoid casualties among civilians”. Shoigu stressed, however, that the so-called special military operation was going according to plan and that all of Russia’s military aims in Ukraine will be achieved. The statement strongly reflects Russia’s failings in achieving swift operational success in the Donbas, despite refocusing its efforts on the region after failing to take Kyiv at the start of the invasion. The statement regarding the slowing down of operations as being deliberate is also highly likely an attempt to deflect public attention away from Moscow’s shortcomings in Ukraine. Russia’s already slow pace of the offensive in Donetsk was partly slowed down due to the need to redeploy some of its forces to support operations in the south, amid Ukraine’s increasing strikes across the occupied Kherson and Crimea. Cumulatively, the developments furthermore support our assessment that given the slow pace of the operations, the war will protract into the months ahead and into 2023, especially given Shoigu’s reiteration of Russia’s maximalist objectives. In this respect, it also remains our assessment that Russia is highly likely seeking to absorb the occupied territories into Russia. US President Joe Biden is reportedly due to speak with President Zelensky today about the upcoming “sham referenda”, which US intelligence suggests could be announced as early as the end of the week in the occupied territories. Whilst there is a relatively high chance of the fake referenda being carried out in the days ahead, it should also be noted that previously posited dates have come and gone, meaning that the potential exact date remains unclear. Nevertheless, Russia’s ultimate objective to control these territories remains unaltered, with some form of vote still highly likely to be announced by the end of the year.

Russia: Ruble stabilises despite sanctions, though long term economic outlook will be undermined. The latest data shows that the Russian ruble has stabilised following the invasion of Ukraine. This comes despite an unprecedented number of western sanctions targeting much of Russia’s banking system, its oligarchs and its foreign reserves. To counter the sanctions’ impact, Moscow has exploited its leverage over energy flows. The Kremlin introduced a series of policies, such as demanding that payments for its gas be made in rubles. The mitigating measures have therefore resulted in Russia’s currency rising to a seven-year high against the USD, with soaring energy prices boosting the country’s revenue stream and mitigating the impact of sanctions in the short term. Nevertheless, the combination of a steep population decline and a complete break in diplomatic and business relations with the West will inevitably undermine Russia’s economic potential in the long term. However, its economic co-operation with and pivot towards Asian markets will continue gathering momentum.

23 Aug 24.

Military and security developments

No notable military progress was observed on 23 August, with no confirmed ground attacks reported in the direction of Siversk. However, the city and its surrounding areas remain under continuous artillery strikes. In addition, no ground attacks were conducted in the vicinity of Kharkiv City. Attempts to advance on Bakhmut also continued on 23 August. While Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Kyiv repelled an attempted Russian offensive towards Bakhmut, Russia’s Ministry of Defence claims that its forces have made progress and are advancing on Zaitseve, south-east of Bakhmut. Moreover, the UK Ministry of Defence forecast on 24 August that Russia’s offensive progress in Donetsk is likely to remain minimal due to ‘shortages of munitions, vehicles and personnel’.
On 23 August, Russian state media alleged that Ukraine launched an attack against the headquarters of the self-proclaimed leadership of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), claiming that the office of the DNR Denis Pushilin was shelled. Pushilin was reportedly unharmed as a result of the alleged attack. The incident is likely to have been a Russian false-flag attack engineered to justify strikes against Ukraine and its decision-making centres. Further such allegations in other occupied territories are highly likely on 24 August.
Additionally, Ukrainian media claimed that an attack against the Galaktika shopping centre in Donetsk on the morning of 24 August was a false-flag operation by Russian forces. Shells reportedly targeted the shopping centre. There are no confirmed casualties at the time of writing.
Reporting on 23 August confirmed that Russia is deploying security forces to the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) amid dwindling support for the war, with local residents increasingly unwilling to carry on fighting. The latest reports follow last week’s social media footage allegedly showing members of LNR Battalion 2740 refusing to fight in the neighbouring DNR, with LNR soldiers maintaining that they already achieved victory on 3 July following the fall of Lysychansk and the capture of Luhansk oblast’s borders. As such, the latest reports support our previous assessment that there is insufficient morale among LNR forces to conduct offensives beyond the LNR’s borders. This disillusionment is likely to protract the fighting.
Along the southern axes, Russia officially claimed yesterday that it has taken control of Blahodatne, located approximately 22 miles (35km) from Mykolaiv City. This follows the Ukrainian General Staff’s confirmation on 22 August that the Russians achieved ‘partial success’ near Blahodatne.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces claimed to have struck more Russian ammunition depots and a command post in the occupied Kherson oblast. Also in Kherson, the authorities installed by Russia alleged that Ukrainian partisans attempted to assassinate a local official. The development is the latest in a series of such incidents in Kherson in recent months. Additionally, in Belgorod oblast (Russia), reports of a fire at an ammunition depot on 23 August also emerged, with Moscow claiming that the depot caught fire due to ‘hot weather’, necessitating the evacuation of local villagers. Numerous similar reports of fires and explosions in Belgorod and other areas bordering Ukraine have been reported in the last few months; Ukrainian forces have not claimed responsibility for these events.
Additionally, Ukraine accused Russia of continuing to amass weapons at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Kyiv also alleged that Russia is deliberately seeking to shell ‘ash pits’ at the ZNPP to ‘raise clouds of radioactive dust’, for which Moscow will then likely blame Ukraine. A spokesperson for the Odesa oblast’s administration released a video on social media showing a Russian ammunition depot allegedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast. Similarly, Ukrainian Air Force officials stated that its forces destroyed five Russian drones and one Ka-52 helicopter on 23 August.
Missile strikes continued to target Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on 23 August. Similar strikes are highly likely to continue in the next 24-48 hours.

Political developments

The US will announce in the coming hours a new USD 3bn military aid package to Ukraine. The announcement will coincide with Ukraine’s Independence Day, marking the largest aid package since the start of the invasion. It underlines the continuous commitment from Washington DC in backing Ukraine.
The risk of internal provocations in Ukraine on 24 August are higher-than-usual. Ukraine’s security services (SBU) announced that they thwarted Russian security service plans to organise staged protests aimed at aggravating socio-political tensions across Ukraine, including in Kyiv, on 24 August. The SBU also warned of the high risk of Russian misinformation and propaganda campaigns, particularly in the coming week. The SBU claims these campaigns are aimed at condemning and discrediting Ukraine’s military command. We continue to assess that genuine anti-government protests in Ukraine are highly unlikely considering there is strong public support for the country’s military policy; continued Russian attacks will simply galvanise this support and sense of unity.
In a strong show of solidarity, Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, visited Kyiv yesterday, stating that the war in Ukraine has made the restoration of normal relations with Russia impossible. He also stated that Crimea is part of Ukraine and called for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to be dismantled. The developments are reflective of the traditionally much more hawkish stance Poland has taken against Russia, as well as its open support for Ukraine throughout the invasion. Although direct Russian retaliation is still highly unlikely, Moscow is highly likely to keep up the pressure with regard to energy flows. A heightened threat of cyber attacks and increased misinformation campaigns in Poland and the Baltic states are also highly likely.

Forecast

As anticipated, President Zelensky stated on 23 August that Ukraine will not agree to any proposal that would envisage freezing the current frontlines in order to ‘calm’ Moscow. Additionally, Zelensky promised ‘a powerful response’ should Russia disproportionately escalate its strikes against Ukraine. Furthermore, in line with previous statements in recent months, Zelensky reiterated that Kyiv is fully committed to reclaiming Crimea, stating that ‘it started with Crimea and it will end in Crimea’. He stated that Kyiv intends to return Crimea to Ukraine ‘in any way we decide’. Moreover, Kyiv once again stated that the Crimea bridge is a legitimate military target and that it therefore ‘must be destroyed’, adding that the only circumstances under which Ukraine would not strike the bridge would involve Putin withdrawing ‘troops from Crimea across this bridge’. These statements reflect an increasingly escalatory and emboldened rhetoric from Kyiv amid intensified military activity in Crimea itself. In the run-up to Independence Day, Ukrainian forces have launched a number of high profile, and seemingly highly effective, raids and attacks across the occupied Crimea, including against Saki airbase and other notable targets. These attacks, which include the recent car bomb attack that killed Darya Dugina, are likely to have embarrassed the Kremlin, pressurising Moscow to respond with a demonstration of overwhelming firepower in order to claim revenge. President Zelensky’s highly symbolic speech focusing on retaking Crimea and his aspirations to expand offensive military operations in the south are highly likely to aggravate Russia. All major cities across Ukraine therefore remain potential targets for a demonstration of Russian force in the coming hours and days. A major intensification and escalation is particularly likely if Ukrainian forces attempt a strike against the Crimea bridge. This remains a realistic possibility given the most recent statements from Kyiv. Desrtoying the bridge would significantly increase the likelihood of Russian missiles striking ‘decision-making centres’ and political targets in central Kyiv. Vengeful Russian strikes would possibly target the Verkhovna Rada, the Council of Ministers, the presidential palace and the SBU headquarters.

Moldova: Bomb scares underline a moderate risk of internal destabilisation. On 24 August, police in Chisinau received reports of alleged landmines in a variety of locations including in the airport and around the Parliament Building. Both locations are currently being swept for the alleged explosives, although false alarms regarding landmines have become a regular occurrence in Moldova since July. Earlier this month, Moldova’s police investigated several bomb threats targeting the nation’s supreme court and Chisinau airport, in both instances the IP addresses were traced back to Belarus and Russia. Whilst armed escalation is highly unlikely at present, heightened concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine will likely drive further bomb scares in the coming weeks, as Russian and pro-Russian forces are likely to continue maintaining a degree of pressure on Moldova internally.

Ukraine: Turkish support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity bid will likely increase tensions with Moscow. On 23 August, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared his country’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity by rejecting the illegal annexation of Crimea. Erdogan also declared that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is essentially a requirement of international law. Erdogan’s comments will likely strain Turkey’s relationship with Moscow and may indicate a hardening of Turkey’s position away from its previously ambivalent stance. This comes after President Zelensky earlier this week vowed to restore Ukrainian rule in Russia-annexed Crimea, with the nation celebrating Independence Day today (24 August). There is a heightened threat of attacks and provocation surrounding the celebrations, with Kyiv fearing renewed fighting and rocket attacks.

23 Aug 22.

Cyber Update

Pro-Russia groups’ activity maintained pace during this monitoring period, with pro-Moscow hacktivists launching disruptive cyber attacks and state-linked actors continuing their intelligence gathering operations. Given Moscow’s limited time, resources, and dwindling revenue streams, there is a high likelihood that these two sides will maintain this division of labour for the foreseeable future to continue providing support to Russia’s conventional military operations in Ukraine’s contested Donbas region. Targets of strategic value to Russia, such as Ukrainian or NATO government agencies and their private sector partners, will be the most at-risk for this cyber activity.
In contrast, publicly-disclosed cyber campaigns launched by pro-Ukraine cyber threat actors (such as Anonymous) continued to decline during this monitoring period. While it is unclear whether this reduction in activity is due to declining interest and/or improved Russian cyber defences, pro-Kyiv cyber attacks against Russia’s critical infrastructure and Russia-based organisations are highly likely to persist. Such cyber attacks will likely take the form of DDoS, defacement, and/or data leaks.

Pro-Russia disruptive cyber campaigns continue; DDoS and other low-level cyber activities remain high-priority threats to Western businesses

On 21 August, industry reports claimed that Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear was targeting NATO member states with cyber espionage-related activities. These cyber attacks are reportedly employing both highly sophisticated and unsophisticated tactics, such as turning off Microsoft’s Purview Audit security features and engaging in brute force attacks, to compromise their victims’ Microsoft 365 accounts. These cyber attacks are aimed at organisations involved in NATO countries’ foreign policies, such as government agencies, defence firms, think tanks, and intelligence companies.
On 18 August, the Estonian government claimed that they were targeted by the “most extensive cyber attack it has faced since 2007”. This incident was reportedly a Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack that targeted both “public institutions and the private sector”. However, Estonia’s Undersecretary for Digital Transformation Luukas Ilves claimed that the DDoS attack was blocked, and the targeted websites remain operational. The pro-Russian hacktivist group Killnet has claimed responsibility for this incident. This is the latest Killnet DDoS attack targeted against the Estonian government since they subjected the government’s website to cyber attacks earlier in 2022 (see Sibylline Cyber Monthly – July 2022). Killnet claimed their DDoS activity has impacted over 200 financial services in Estonia, however, these claims have been rejected by Estonia.
On 17 August, industry reports claimed that the pro-Russian hacktivist group the People’s Cyber Army launched a cyber attack against Ukraine’s state nuclear power company Energoatom. This threat actor reportedly launched a Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack against the power company’s website, taking it offline for an estimated three hours. This cyber attack is indicative of Moscow-linked hackers’ continued targeting of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure operators to help the Russian military gain advantages in the highly contested Donbas region by pulling Kyiv’s focus and resources elsewhere. With the increasing threat of shelling at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station heightening concerns about nuclear safety, further cyber campaigns targeted at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, especially nuclear power sites, are highly likely over the coming weeks.

Pro-Ukraine cyber campaigns are limited; disrupting and countering Russia’s disinformation/misinformation remained the primary focus during this monitoring period

On 20 August, a Twitter account purporting to represent the Anonymous hacktivist collective claimed that the group hacked television stations in Russian-occupied Crimea. Much like previous cyber campaigns that targeted pro-Russian media outlets, these cyber attacks allegedly replaced their broadcast with pro-Ukraine content. If officially confirmed, this is the latest pro-Kyiv cyber attack aimed at countering the Russian government’s misinformation/disinformation operations since Anonymous claimed that the group hacked Russian streaming services and TV news channels and broadcasted ‘footage of the destruction of Russian military assets’ (see Sibylline Weekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 16 August 2022).

FORECAST

Publicly disclosed pro-Moscow cyber campaigns continued to maintain pace during this monitoring period. Much like in previous weeks, the cyber attacks launched by these pro-Moscow hackers can be divided into two categories, low-level disruptive cyber campaigns launched by pro-Russian hacktivists and cyber espionage-related campaigns launched by Russia’s state-sponsored threat actors. With regards to the hacktivist groups, the cyber attacks launched by Killnet against the Estonian government’s website underscores pro-Russian hacktivists’ continued reliance on low-level cyber attacks to target Western countries that engage in actions perceived to be against the Russian government. Indeed, these DDoS attacks emerged after the Estonian government approved a new military aid package for Ukraine that included mortars, anti-tank weapons, and a field hospital. Further politically motivated cyber attacks are highly likely to emerge in the coming six months, especially with Western nation-states’ financial and military aid to Ukraine set to persist during that time period. Given these hacktivists’ low technical capabilities, these cyber attacks will most likely take the form of DDoS, defacement, or data leaks. Organisations are advised to consult ‘quick guide’ checklists provided by Western governments’ cyber security agencies – such as the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) – to minimise their exposure to these cyber threats. Meanwhile, Russia’s state-linked cyber threat actors have remained focused on gathering intelligence related to its invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the Cozy Bear’s targeting of organisations involved in NATO member states’ foreign policy institutions underscores that not only Ukraine-based entities are at risk of being targeted by Russian state-linked cyber attacks but also those located in the West providing financial or military aid to the Ukrainian government. Moreover, this incident is indicative of Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center’s (MSTIC) findings that Russian state-linked hackers have increasingly targeted Western governments supporting Ukraine, especially in NATO countries, with cyber activity aimed at either gathering critical intelligence and/or aiding its conventional military activities in Ukraine. With the protracted conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region unlikely to be resolved for the foreseeable future, further Russia-backed cyber espionage campaigns are highly likely to be launched in the coming weeks. Government agencies in Ukraine and NATO member states and their private sector partners, including in the defence, telecommunications or IT sectors, will be the most at-risk for this cyber activity. In contrast, publicly-disclosed pro-Ukraine cyber activity has continued to decline during this monitoring period. It is currently unclear whether this reduction in publicly-disclosed cyber attacks is due to a decline in interest amongst pro-Kyiv hackers and/or an improvement in Russia’s cyber defences. Nevertheless, there is a realistic probability that these pro-Ukraine actors, especially Anonymous-linked groups, will continue to launch politically motivated cyber attacks against critical infrastructure supporting Russia’s government or military operations and/or Russia-based organisations perceived to be propagating pro-Moscow propaganda. Given these groups’ low technical capabilities, these cyber attacks will most likely take the form of either DDoS, defacement, and/or data leaks.

Military and security developments

Military progress remained very limited, with no major battlefield gains reported on 22 August. As in previous days, Ukrainian General staff reported that Russian forces continued conducting limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum and southeast of Siversk, with artillery strikes on and near Siversk also reported yesterday.
Pressure on Bakhmut remains high with Russian forces reportedly attempting to advance on Bakhmut from Pokrovske village to its east, as well as conducting air and artillery strikes near the city and the surrounding area. Russian ground attacks also continued in the vicinity of Donetsk City, and continued advancing on Adviikva, Pisky, and Marinka. Russian ammunition depots here have been targeted, and fighting is reportedly ongoing. Ground attacks were also conducted near Novomykhailivka, Makarivka, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
Along the southern axes, Russian forces carried out several attacks, with Ukraine’s General Staff confirming that the Russians achieved “partial success” near Blahodatne, approximately 35 km from Mykolaiv City, on 22 August. According to the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command, four Russian S-300 missiles struck Mykolaiv City between the night of 21-22 August.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces around Kharkiv City are attempting to improve their tactical positions. Moreover, Russian forces continued conducting airstrikes, artillery strikes, and UAV reconnaissance flights near Kharkiv City, namely on Pytomnyk, Staryi Saltiv, and Verkhnii Saltiv.
Additionally, both sides reported shelling in Enerhodar, near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), which allegedly damaged water lines around a thermal plant in Enerhodar. Ukrainian media reports also noted that more explosions were heard in occupied Kherson on the evening of 22 August, though unconfirmed social media footage suggested that it was caused by a Russian anti-air missile after it failed mid-flight.
Missile strikes on Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts have also been noted on 22 August, and are likely to continue in the lead up to Ukraine’s Independence Day tomorrow, 24 August.
In the occupied Crimea more explosions were reported in Sevastopol on 22 August on social media, though the reports are unconfirmed. However, if confirmed, the development is highly on trend and in line with a series of explosions in Crimea in recent weeks, which demonstrates Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian forces’ capabilities and willingness to attack Russian positions inside Crimea.
The Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that, according to an announcement by Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik, the LNR will start the first phase of a two-phase “general mobilisation” plan on 1 September. The first phase will include mobilising Ukrainian citizens that both match military requirements and received Russian passports. The GUR claims that the second phase, the date for which remains unknown, will involve the mobilisation of adult males aged 18-65. Meanwhile, the recruitment and creation of Russian volunteer units continues. For example, on 22 August, Prymorsky Krai announced the formation of the ‘Arsenievskiy’ Volunteer Battalion. Composed of 140 out of an originally planned 280 recruits aged 18-60, the Battalion will evacuate, repair, refurbish, and return damaged military equipment to the frontlines.
Lastly, according to an interview by RBK Ukraine with Ukrainian Deputy Chief of Staff Andrii Sybiha on 23 August, Ukraine will receive unspecified ‘Western’ anti-aircraft and missile defence systems in autumn.

Political developments

As anticipated, following the high-profile car bomb attack over the weekend, which resulted in the death of Daria Dugina, daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, Russia’s FSB security services claimed on 21 August that Ukrainian special services were behind the attack. More specifically they alleged that a Ukrainian female, with ties to the Azov regiment, was responsible for the attack and has since fled to Estonia without being detected by Russia’s security services. President Putin has also commented on the deadly car blast, calling the event a “vile, cruel crime”. Moreover, as anticipated, Dugina’s father, who was likely the intended target of the attack, called for Russian “victory” following her death, compounding tensions ahead of 24 August. Meanwhile, Kyiv has denied any involvement in the attack, and its capacity to conduct such a mission near Moscow is highly questionable. Moreover, the speed with which Kyiv has been blamed for the attack aligns with our assessment that the more likely scenario is that the event was orchestrated from within Russia and intended to drum up further support for the war, justifying escalation and revenge strikes in the coming days.
The Irish embassy re-opened in Kyiv for the first time since the 24 February invasion in a further effort to show solidarity with Ukraine ahead of the 24 August Independence Day and the anticipated intensification of strikes across Ukraine, including in and/or around Kyiv. Additionally, Polish President Andrej Duda has arrived in Kyiv today 23 August, also underlining Warsaw’s enduring support for Ukraine. Whilst Russia has not threatened to target foreign entities, such as embassies, Dugin’s supporters and other ultra-nationalist forces have called for strikes against decision making centres in Kyiv, elevating the threat of collateral damage should Moscow launch retaliatory strikes on the capital.
In Albania, two Russian nationals and a Ukrainian were arrested on 20 August after they allegedly tried to enter the Gramsh military plant, injuring two military officers. According to the Albanian Ministry of Defence, the three individuals were taking photographs of the military plant, which is used as a weapons storage and disassembling facility. The suspects had reportedly entered Albania as tourists, and are being charged with two counts of espionage. A similar incident followed on Sunday, 21 August when four Czech nationals tried to enter a defunct military facility in Polican. The four suspects were arrested. Of note, foreign tourists have in the past been able to enter the Polican facility, therefore, it is yet unclear if the case of the four Czech nationals is linked in any way to the previous incident. The arrest of the Russian and a Ukrainian nationals will likely shift more attention to the debate about banning Russian tourists in Europe, though it is highly unlikely that the European Union will introduce a blanket visa ban for Russian nationals. Nevertheless, the incidents highlight elevated Russian espionage activity across Europe, with government and military facilities at the highest risk of being targeted.

Forecast

In the lead up to Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24 August, President Zelensky held a major meeting yesterday evening with top representatives of Ukraine’s defence and security sector to discuss the situation on the frontlines and in large cities. Kyiv has reiterated that the threat of Russian attacks is very high, something that we assess has likely been exacerbated by Russia’s allegations yesterday that Ukraine is responsible for the death of Daria Dugina. Meanwhile, today, the head of Ukraine’s security and defence council Oleksiy Danilov also alleged that following Dugina’s death, FSB-orchestrated attacks inside Russia involving mass civilian casualties are likely, in order to mobilise support for the war; however, these claims cannot be verified and should be taken with a degree of caution. Security measures including curfews, bans on gatherings, work from home advice, have been implemented in Kyiv and other major cities across Ukraine this week. Moreover, the US State Department has issued a warning yesterday urging all US citizens currently in Ukraine to leave immediately. According to the latest US intelligence, which supports our standing assessment over the last few weeks, there is a high likelihood of Russia launching strikes, not just against military targets, but also against civilian infrastructure and government buildings across Ukraine. Additionally, the likelihood of cyber attacks is also heightened, with the State Service for Special Communication and Information Protection warning on 22 August that it anticipates an intensification of attacks by Russian hackers on Independence Day, with government, military, and critical infrastructure likely to be the main targets of potential attacks.

Ukraine: US reaffirms high threat of Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure on 24 August. On 23 August, the US State Department urged its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately. Washington DC warned of increased Russian strikes against Ukrainian government buildings and civilian infrastructure. The announcement comes after the US intelligence community reportedly declassified the information on 22 August. The development follows Russia’s claims that Ukraine planted the car bomb which killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin. The US statement supports our assessment that Russian attacks are likely to take place on 24 August across Ukraine, and that they will target Kyiv in particular. Certain security measures have already been implemented in the capital, including curfews, a ban on gatherings and requests for government employees to work from home.

22 Aug 22.

No major battlefield gains have been observed over the weekend, with Ukrainian General staff reporting that Russian forces continued to launch failed assaults between 20-21 August southwest of Izyum and on Siversk form the southeast. No additional territorial gains have therefore been reported, but as has been the case in recent weeks, operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk city have been the focus of Russian efforts and currently remain under the most pressure.
Along the southern axes, Russian operations remain focused on building defences in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in anticipation of any potential Ukrainian counterattack. Meanwhile, allegations of shelling around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant continued over the weekend and on 22 August, though on 21 August, Energoatom confirmed that the plant is currently operating, but highlighted the enduring risk of radiation leaks.
Additionally, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian forces have reportedly continued to strike at key Russian targets such as ammunition depots, with such strikes likely to only continue in the lead up to Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24 August.
Furthermore, on 21 August, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Russia transferred certain air defence systems to Belarus, stating that “there is an ongoing threat of enemy missile and air strikes from the territory and the airspace of Belarus”. The statements follow last week’s reports of Russia flying in increasing numbers of missiles into Belarus to build reserves there, likely to support an anticipated escalation ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day. The reports indicate that Russia is prioritising air defence missile shipments to Belarus, including for S-300/S-400 systems. S-300 missiles in particular have been used to attack ground targets in recent months, but these are primarily defensive systems. There is a realistic possibility that Russian aircraft will be deployed to launch airstrikes against northern Ukraine, with the strengthened air umbrella likely aimed at protecting their aircraft as much as possible. However, Russian aircraft activity would likely remain limited due to Russia’s diminished ability to restore and repair aircraft as a result of Western sanctions, including the banning of exports of aviation equipment. Regardless, Belarus is highly likely to be the staging ground for a large number of ballistic, cruise and potentially hypersonic missile strikes over northern Ukraine in the coming weeks.
In the occupied Crimea, in the morning on 21 August, explosions were once again reported in Sevastopol, after a drone reportedly struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Additionally, reports of Russian troops shooting anti-aircraft rounds at unnamed targets in western Crimea and social media footage suggesting that Russian forces were likely shooting at drones or aircraft around Sevastopol, all underline the recent intensification of activity across the occupied peninsula. Moreover, the events over the weekend follow last week’s reports of explosions near the Belbek airbase, just north of Sevastopol, and the attack against the Saki airbase, with both Saki and Belbek being major military targets for Ukrainian forces.
As such, the continued activity inside Crimea, if confirmed to be Ukrainian, would underline Ukraine’s growing capabilities and willingness to probe and attack Russian positions right across the peninsula, and highlights the growing likelihood of strikes against the Crimea bridge. This intensified activity across the peninsula, whether by Ukrainian attacks, special forces, or partisan activity, does not mean that Russia is losing its hold over Crimea. However, the developments are putting additional pressure on the Kremlin and highlight Moscow’s shortcomings in the war, particularly as the strikes are now targeting territory that Moscow considers to be part of Russia itself.
To that end, the increased attacks in Crimea itself are already driving many individuals living there to leave for Russia, with unconfirmed media reports and social media footage showing traffic jams out of Crimea, as public concerns over the apparently deteriorating security situation there rise. This is likely to increase public discontent and attract further scrutiny and highlight Russia’s failures in the war as it struggles to prevent attacks within Crimea.
Meanwhile, in Russia itself, the most notable development over the weekend was the killing of Daria Dugina, daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, in a car bomb attack. Dugin, who is often credited in the media as being “Putin’s brain” and influencing his decision to invade Ukraine, is believed to have been the intended target of the attack, though Dugina also shared and propagated his ideology, which, amongst many other things, denies that Ukraine should exist as a sovereign state and has openly called for the elimination of Ukrainians. Following the attack, Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of Ukraine’s President’s Office, denied that Ukraine was in any way involved in the incident, alleging instead that the event was strictly “a manifestation of internal political struggles in Russia”. Predictably, however, the attack immediately prompted various propaganda voices in Russia to call for strikes on “decision-making centres” in Kyiv, and is set to become yet another flashpoint ahead of 24 August, with Dugin also likely to increase his calls for a wider war.
Lastly, the car bomb attack has subsequently led to the tightening of security measures in Kyiv, as worries have intensified over potential revenge strikes from Russia. To that end, on 21 August, all government quarter employees in Kyiv have reportedly been advised to work from home for the duration of the week, as the likelihood of Russian strikes against Kyiv is higher-than-usual. Additionally, all mass events are banned in Kyiv this week between 22-25 August. Similarly, coupled with the upcoming Independence Day, authorities in Kharkiv have announced an introduction of a 36-hour curfew from 1900 hrs (local time) on 23 August, with individuals also advised against traveling to the city, which has continuously been a site of heavy Russian strikes. Residents of other regions that have been disproportionately hit by Russia such as Mykolaiv have also been advised to work remotely and warned against gathering in groups, in anticipation of potential attacks on 24 August.

Political developments

On 19 August, Gazprom announced that between 31 August and 2 September gas deliveries to Germany will be completely halted due to a scheduled maintenance procedure. The announcement further increases concerns that Russia will minimise its gas deliveries to Europe ahead of the winter to ensure high energy prices across the region designed to put more pressure on political leadership in Europe over its support of Ukraine. The further halting of Russian gas deliveries undermines European efforts to fill up gas storages, increasing the possibility of business disruptions as companies already struggle to maintain production levels amid soaring energy prices.
Following a call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 19 August, Moscow tentatively agreed to a safety mission by experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia. The mission could reportedly be deployed this week, following further coordination between Paris, Moscow, and the IAEA. As part of the mission, a temporary ceasefire would be required, however, the prospects of such talks succeeding are highly uncertain meaning that the mission is likely to be delayed, with Moscow also likely to backtrack on its promises to facilitate the mission.
In line with our previous assessments, prospects for a diplomatic solution to the war are minimal, with Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations and top diplomat Gennady Gatilov stating that he does “not see any possibility for diplomatic contacts”, adding that the longer the “conflict goes on, the more difficult it will be to have a diplomatic solution.” The statements are consistent with our prediction that despite Kyiv and Moscow reaching an agreement on grain shipments, which have so far been proceeding relatively smoothly despite the intensification of hostilities in the south, prospects of a peace deal in the immediate term are virtually non-existent. In his remarks, Galitov also reiterated that the West is to blame for prolonging the war given the steady supply of weapons to Ukraine, with the statements further indicating that the war is unlikely to reach a decisive end this year.
According to the latest public opinion polls conducted by the All-Russian Centre of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), the vast majority of Russians (80 percent) reportedly trust President Putin and 77.8 percent approve of his activities. Although Russian public opinion data should be taken with a grain of salt, the results are consistent with other opinion polls by the Levada Centre, underlining that Putin still retains popular support despite the current course of the war. Moreover, the killing of Dugina over the weekend is likely to be used as another tool to rally support within Russia for the war by alleging that Ukrainian forces pose a threat to Russia itself.

Forecast

The car bomb attack, which resulted in the death of Daria Dugina is likely to become just the latest flashpoint ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24 August. There is speculation that the intended target of the attack was Alexander Dugin, the leader of an ultra-nationalist line of thinking in Russia that sees the country as challenging the West and denies Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign state. Dugin has been amongst the key supporters of the concept of “Novorossiya”, was a strong supporter of the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, and has consistently called for the expansion of the war effort against Ukraine. Notably, Dugin is often referred to in some western media sources as “Putin’s brain”. However, his influence is largely overstated and there is little evidence to suggest that he has any special formal or informal access to Putin. Nevertheless, a combination of his relatively high profile, extreme hardliner view, and relative accessibility, likely made him a more accessible and relatively lower-cost target. Additionally, the attack took place just outside of Moscow, adding to the shock value and is likely to be used to increase hardliner pressure on Moscow over the slow progress of the war. The event has already prompted additional calls from ultra-nationalist and imperialist circles in Russia for revenge, with some indeed highlighting that the attack happened near the capital, notably elevating the risk of revenge assassinations and strikes on Kyiv. This will compound the anticipated trends during Independence Day on 24 August. Although it is unknown who was behind the attack, Ukrainian forces have previously been accused of carrying out attacks against Russia-installed officials in the occupied Kherson region, including placing explosive devices on their vehicles. However, Ukraine’s potential involvement in the Dugina attack, which would highlight its apparent capability to carry out such attacks in the heart of Russia and therefore remains highly uncertain, would pose a major concern for Russian elites, if confirmed. Additionally, Dugin’s lack of actual political influence arguably makes him a relatively odd target for Ukraine, considering that their efforts would be better placed on more high-value targets. However, following the attack, the state-sponsored news agency Tass reported that there were no security checks at the entrance to the parking lot where Dugin’s car was parked, underlining the fact that this could have feasibly made Dugin a more accessible target – including potentially for the Ukrainians – as opposed to more senior hawkish Russian officials with better security. Notably, a former Russian MP, Ilya Ponomarev, stated on 21 August that a Russian partisan group, National Republican Army (NRA), was behind the car bomb attack, alleging that the underground group is committed to overthrowing Putin’s regime. NRA have also claimed responsibility for the incident. However, Ponomarev’s claims should be taken with a degree of caution given that he is known for his anti-Kremlin views and that it is beneficial for the group to also make such claims in order to appear stronger than they actually are. However, should NRA be responsible, this would suggest that the tensions inside Russia are mounting, despite the current relative absence of obvious cracks or notable instability domestically. Additionally, it is also plausible and likely that the attack was designed by the security services, either because the killing of someone with such hardliner views would be very symbolic and could be used as a pretext for escalation in Ukraine, or because Dugin/Dugina may have been growing unpopular and increased the risk of backlash given Russia’s poor progress on the battlefield and continued strikes against Crimea. Notably, Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Maria Zakharova did not immediately ascribe blame to Kyiv, stating that Moscow is “waiting for the results of the investigation”, indicating that the Kremlin is carefully considering its next steps. Lastly, regardless of who is responsible for the Dugina attack, the event only further reinforces the tensions ahead of 24 August and increases the likelihood of retaliatory attacks across Ukraine. To that end, President Zelensky warned Ukrainians to be extremely vigilant, cautioning that “this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, particularly vicious”, which, as noted throughout our reporting, is a high risk given the very symbolic nature of the upcoming date and the most recent developments.

Russia: Prospects of peace deal are low with fatal Dugina attack likely to increase strikes against Ukraine. On 21 August, Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations (UN), cited western arm supplies to Ukraine as a significant barrier to a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine, ruling out a peace agreement to resolve it. The announcement has undermined hopes that the space for talks might be increasing after the recent deal brokered by the UN and Turkey to allow shipments of grain to leave the Black Sea Port of Odessa. On the same day a car bomb on the outskirts of Moscow killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of nationalist Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, prompting claims the attack was committed by Ukrainian special forces. Dugina’s death will likely increase calls for a wider war from Russian hardliners. The incident could potentially prompt retaliatory missile strikes against Ukrainian cities elevating already rising threats to civilians in Ukraine ahead of the upcoming Ukrainian Independence Day on 24 August.

Albania: Arrest of Russian and Ukrainian citizens trying to enter military facility underline increasing espionage threat. On the evening of 20 August, two Russians and a Ukrainian injured two military officers while attempting to enter the Gramsh Military Plant, according to the Albanian Ministry of Defence. The three people trying to enter the facility were detained and are being investigated for suspected espionage. According to the Ministry of Defence, the plant is now being used for manufacturing, although did not provide more details on the military equipment being produced. The incident highlights the elevated threat of Russian espionage activity across Europe, including in the cyber sphere, significantly elevating threats to businesses with government or military contracts with NATO member states in strategic sectors such as defence and intelligence. Such operations will increase the likelihood that sensitive company or client information is leaked, which could pose notable regulatory and reputational concerns.

Cyber Update

Russia: Moscow-linked hackers’ intelligence gathering attacks against NATO countries will support Russia in its protracted conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear is targeting NATO member states with cyber espionage-related activities. These cyber attacks are reportedly employing both highly sophisticated and unsophisticated tactics, such as turning off Microsoft’s Purview Audit security features and engaging in brute force attacks, to compromise their victims’ Microsoft 365 accounts. These cyber attacks are aimed at organisations involved in NATO countries’ foreign policy, such as government agencies, defence firms, think tanks, and intelligence companies. This cyber espionage campaign reflects Microsoft’s June report which claimed that Russian state-linked hackers have increasingly targeted Western governments supporting Ukraine, especially NATO countries, with cyber attacks to aid Russia’s conventional military activities in Ukraine (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 23 June 2022). With Russia and Ukraine’s protracted conflict in the Donbas region set to persist, there is a realistic probability that further cyber attacks will be launched in the coming six months. Entities of strategic value to Moscow, such as NATO member states, Western defence firms, and Russia-focused think tanks, will be the most at-risk for these cyber attacks. (Source: Sibylline)

26 Aug 22. Russia can’t stop war, even if Ukraine drops NATO hopes -Putin ally.

A top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Moscow would not stop its military campaign in Ukraine even if Kyiv formally renounced its aspirations to join NATO.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, also said in a French television interview that Russia was prepared to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy subject to certain conditions.

Even before the February invasion, Moscow made clear Ukrainian membership of NATO was unacceptable to it.

“Renouncing its participation in the North Atlantic alliance is now vital, but it is already insufficient in order to establish peace,” Medvedev told LCI television in quotes reported by Russian news agencies.

Russia, he said, would continue the campaign until its goals had been achieved. Putin says he wants to “denazify” Ukraine. Kyiv and the West say this is a baseless pretext for a war of conquest.

Russia and Ukraine held several rounds of talks after the invasion began, but they made no progress and there are few prospects for a resumption.

“This (talks) will depend on how events unfold. We were ready before to meet (Zelenskiy),” Medvedev said.

In his comments, he also said U.S. weapons already supplied to Ukraine — like HIMARS multiple-rocket launchers – did not yet pose a substantial threat.

But that could change, he said, if U.S. sent weapons could hit targets at longer distances.

“It means that when this sort of missile flies 70 km, that is one thing,” he said. “But when it’s 300-400 km, that is another, now that would be a threat directly to the territory of the Russian Federation.”

Ukraine says it took out important bridge in occupied south.

Ukrainian rocket fire hit an important bridge used by Russian occupying forces in southern Kherson region on Friday and put it out of action, Ukraine’s southern military command said.

“Rocket artillery units continued to conduct missions, including ensuring control over the Daryivskiy bridge. Its operation is currently halted,” the southern command said in a statement.

There was no immediate comment from Moscow. (Source: Reuters)

27 Aug 22. UK donating undersea minehunter drones to help Ukraine clear coastline. Dozens of Ukrainian personnel will be taught to use the autonomous minehunting vehicles by the Royal Navy and our US partners over the coming months. The UK is giving underwater drones to Ukraine and training Ukrainian personnel in Britain to use them to clear their coastline of mines.

Six autonomous minehunting vehicles will be sent to the country to help detect Russian mines in the waters off its coast. Three of these will be provided from UK stocks, with a further three to be purchased from industry.

The lightweight autonomous vehicle is designed for use in shallow coastal environments, operating effectively at depths of up to 100m to detect, locate and identify mines using an array of sensors so the Ukrainian Navy can destroy them.

Dozens of Ukrainian Navy personnel will be taught to use the drones over the coming months, with the first tranche having already begun their training.

Russia has been weaponising food by destroying Ukrainian agriculture and blockading the country’s Black Sea ports to prevent exports, with devastating consequences for the world’s poorest people as food prices rise.

A small number of ships carrying grain have left Ukraine since the UN brokered a deal in July to allow food exports, but efforts to get food out of the country continue to be hampered by sea mines left by Russian forces along Ukraine’s coast.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “Russia’s cynical attempts to hold the world’s food supply to ransom must not be allowed to succeed.

This vital equipment and training will help Ukraine make their waters safe, helping to smooth the flow of grain to the rest of the world and supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine as they look to defend their coastline and ports.

The Royal Navy’s Diving & Threat Exploitation Group will conduct the three-week training courses, alongside the US Navy 6th Fleet. Having considerable experience using the equipment already they will conduct training at sea to operate the vessels and interpret the data they send back to identify mock mines.

Admiral Sir Ben Key, First Sea Lord and Chief of the Naval Staff, said: “Through the expert skills being taught here, our Ukrainian allies will be able to clear their own waters of mines. These weapons target shipping indiscriminately, but particularly affect civilian traffic and trade and have had a devastating impact on freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. This training is another powerful demonstration of the UK’s ongoing commitment to Ukraine in their fight to defend their country and repel Russian aggression.”

Captain Ben Vickery Royal Navy, Captain of Royal Navy Diving and Mine Warfare said: “The Ukrainian personnel have been fantastic, and it is a pleasure to be working with them and helping them in their struggle to defend their homeland against the aggression they are currently suffering. These incredible, motivated and very professional sailors have thrown themselves into the task and have made incredible progress gaining an excellent level of proficiency. I am hugely proud of them, and the Royal Navy Clearance Divers and Mine Warfare specialists delivering the training, standing shoulder to shoulder – stronger together to achieve this vital training mission driven by our shared values and a common bond.”

The Royal Navy is also training Ukrainian sailors to operate Sandown Class Minehunter vessels.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Havrylov visited Scotland in July to watch trainees practicing key skills at sea, such as weapon drills and damage control, whilst learning to operate the machinery on the vessels.

The UK is also leading a major international programme to train up to 10,000 Ukrainian volunteer recruits in basic military skills, which Canada, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Latvia and the Netherlands have all announced they will support. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

26 Aug 22. US Army awards Raytheon Missiles & Defense $182m NASAMS contract for Ukraine. Raytheon Missiles & Defense, a Raytheon Technologies (NYSE: RTX) business, was awarded a $182m contract for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, also known as NASAMS™, a highly adaptable mid-range air defense solution. These systems are expected to be provided to Ukraine in response to that nation’s need to defend against advanced air threats.

“Raytheon Missiles & Defense and our partners are working diligently to quickly deliver this critical, proven air defense capability to help the Ukrainian people defend their homeland,” said Tom Laliberty, president of Land Warfare & Air Defense, a Raytheon Missiles & Defense business area. “Ukraine will join a dozen nations around the globe who rely on NASAMS to defeat a multitude of threats, including cruise missiles, aircraft, and unmanned systems.”

Jointly developed and produced by RMD and Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, NASAMS consists of the Sentinel radar, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile, and KDA’s Fire Distribution Center. NASAMS provides air defenders with a tailorable, state-of-the-art defense system that can maximize their ability to identify, engage and destroy current and evolving enemy aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles and emerging cruise missile threats.

25 Aug 22. Putin orders Russian military to increase troops amid Ukraine losses. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a major buildup of his country’s military forces Thursday in an apparent effort to replenish troops that have suffered heavy losses in six months of bloody warfare and prepare for a long, grinding fight ahead in Ukraine.

The move to increase the number of troops by 137,000, or 13%, to 1.15 million by the end of the year came amid chilling developments on the ground in Ukraine:

— Fueling fears of a nuclear catastrophe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the middle of the fighting in southern Ukraine was cut off from the electrical grid after fires damaged the last working transmission line, causing a blackout across the region, according to Ukrainian authorities. The plant was later reconnected to the grid, a local Russian-installed official said.

— The death toll from a Russian rocket attack on a train station and the surrounding area on Ukraine’s Independence Day climbed to 25, Ukrainian authorities said. Russia said it targeted a military train and claimed to have killed more than 200 Ukrainian reservists in the attack Wednesday.

Putin’s decree did not specify whether the expansion would be accomplished by widening the draft, recruiting more volunteers, or both. But some Russian military analysts predicted heavier reliance on volunteers because of the Kremlin’s concerns about a potential domestic backlash from an expanded draft.

The move will boost Russia’s armed forces overall to 2.04 million, including the 1.15 million troops.

Western estimates of Russian dead in the Ukraine war have ranged from more than 15,000 to over 20,000 — more than the Soviet Union lost during its 10-year war in Afghanistan. The Pentagon said last week that as many as 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded, eroding Moscow’s ability to conduct big offensives.

The Kremlin has said that only volunteer contract soldiers take part in the Ukraine war. But it may be difficult to find more willing soldiers, and military analysts said the planned troop levels may still be insufficient to sustain operations.

Retired Russian Col. Retired Viktor Murakhovsky said in comments carried by the Moscow-based RBC online news outlet that the Kremlin will probably try to keep relying on volunteers, and he predicted that will account for the bulk of the increase.

Another Russian military expert, Alexei Leonkov, noted that training on complex modern weapons normally takes three years. And draftees serve only one year.

“A draft won’t help that, so there will be no increase in the number of draftees,” the state RIA Novosti news agency quoted Leonkov as saying.

Fears of a Chernobyl-like disaster have been mounting in Ukraine because of fighting around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia plant. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling the site.

The damaged line in Thursday’s incident apparently carried outgoing electricity, not affecting a separate line used to power vital cooling systems for the plant’s reactors.

Zaporizhzhia’s Russian-installed regional governor, Yevgeny Balitsky, claimed on the Telegram messaging app that Ukrainian forces had attacked, causing the fire that damaged the transmission lines. Ukraine’s nuclear energy agency, Energoatom, blamed “actions of the invaders.”

While the incident apparently didn’t affect the reactors’ cooling systems — whose loss could lead to a meltdown — it stoked fears of disaster.

Elsewhere on the battle front, the deadly strike on the train station in Chaplyne, a town of about 3,500 in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, came as Ukraine was bracing for attacks tied to the national holiday and the war’s six-month mark, both of which fell on Wednesday.

The deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, did not say whether all of the 25 people killed were civilians. If they were, it would amount to one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in weeks. Thirty-one people were reported wounded.

Witnesses said some of the victims, including at least one child, burned to death in train cars or passing automobiles.

“Everything sank into dust,” said Olena Budnyk, a 65-year-old Chaplyne resident. “There was a dust storm. We couldn’t see anything. We didn’t know where to run.”

The dead included an 11-year-old boy found under the rubble of a house and a 6-year-old killed in a car fire near the train station, authorities said.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces used an Iskander missile to strike a military train carrying Ukrainian troops and equipment to the front line in eastern Ukraine. The ministry claimed more than 200 reservists “were destroyed on their way to the combat zone.”

The attack served as a painful reminder of Russia’s continued ability to inflict large-scale suffering. Wednesday’s national holiday celebrated Ukraine’s 1991 declaration of independence from the Soviet Union.

Tetyana Kvitnytska, deputy head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional health department, said those hurt in the train station attack suffered head injuries, broken limbs, burns and shrapnel wounds.

Following attacks in which civilians have died, the Russian government has repeatedly claimed that its forces aim only at legitimate military targets. Hours before the bloodshed at the train station, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu insisted the military was doing its best to spare civilians, even at the cost of slowing down its offensive in Ukraine.

In April, a Russian missile attack on a train station in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk killed more than 50 people as crowds of mostly women and children sought to flee the fighting. The attack was denounced as a war crime.

In Moscow on Thursday, Dmitry Medvedev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said Western hopes for a Ukrainian victory are futile and emphasized that the Kremlin will press home what it calls the “special military operation,” leaving just two possible outcomes.

“One is reaching all goals of the special military operation and Kyiv’s recognition of this outcome,” Medvedev said on his messaging app channel. “The second is a military coup in Ukraine followed by the recognition of results of the special operation.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Military Times)

The L3Harris-made weapon ― a small, four-barreled rocket launcher and sensor ball ― can be mounted in two hours and operated by a single person, the company said. It can be equipped with missiles to hit ground or air targets including unmanned aircraft systems.

“The Vampire system itself is a counter-UAS system, ” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a press briefing Wednesday. “It is a kinetic system that uses small missiles essentially to shoot UAVs out of the sky.”

While the Vampire system isn’t advertised as a counter-drone weapon on L3Harris’ website, Ukraine has used similar munition-style weapons to take down drones throughout its conflict with Russia.

As the Russia conflict crosses the six-month mark, the most recent aid package is aimed at providing sustainable and affordable options to Ukraine. Alongside the Vampire, the Pentagon is also sending Puma drones and a host of ammunition.

“Our VAMPIRE system will provide the Ukrainian people with even more robust capabilities as they continue to defend their country and democracy in Europe,” Melbourne, Fla.-based L3Harris said in a statement to C4ISRNET. “We will continue to offer our steadfast support of their mission.”

Drone warfare has been heavily utilized by both sides in the six-month-old conflict, with many being sourced from countries outside the war.

Kyiv has drawn support from the U.S. and the United Kingdom, both of whom pledged new drones and counter-drone technology to the conflict on Wednesday, Ukraine’s Independence Day. Russia, meanwhile, has looked to Iran to sustain its supply of drones, according to U.S. officials.

The Vampire is part of a larger package in aid to Ukraine, bringing the total amount supplied to the country during the Russia-Ukraine conflict to more than $13.5bn since the start of the Biden administration.

The Biden administration selected the Vampire — a low-cost and easy-to-assemble weapon compared to other counter-drone measures, such as electronic warfare technologies — for a package advertised as providing supplies for Ukraine’s long-term needs.

“We’re trying to be very deliberate about what systems we think makes the most sense for Ukraine to have in that context, and it also matters very much: Can they sustain it? Can they afford it? Because of course billions of dollars of international assistance may not be something 10 years from now or 20 years from now,” Kahl said.

When the Pentagon did not disclose which “Vampire” system they were sending to Ukraine, it fueled to speculation on social media on as to what weapon the Ukrainians were set to receive. L3Harris confirmed evening that the system in question was the rocket equipment.

The rocket launcher isn’t the first weapon nicknamed after the creature of the night to enter the conflict.

Footage published by the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on July 11, shows Ukraine using the Czech Republic’s RM-70 VAMPIR 122mm Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.

The Czech system, which is designed by Excalibur Army, looks similar to the the L3Harris’ weapon, with a rocket-launching system as the main feature. Unlike the L3Harris system, the MLRS Vampire uses a large military vehicle rather than a simple pickup truck as its launching platform.

“Ukrainian MLRS Vampire aren’t afraid of sunlight,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said in a Tweet accompanying the video. “They are not afraid of anybody; they’re just doing their job.” (Source: Defense News)

Much of the Army’s current thinking is based on the Army’s experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, said Maj. Gen. Sean A. Gainey, who runs the service’s Joint C-UAS Office. In those wars, the United States could deploy very large armed drones virtually anywhere while adversaries such as ISIS were just beginning to use small drones to drop small munitions. So the United States developed and published a plan for dealing with small UAS in January 2021.

“What we’re seeing in Ukraine,” Gainey said, is that “when you scale this capability from a small quadcopter all the way up to a larger group three” —a drone that weighs around 1,300 pounds and flies at 1,800 feet—”and are able to leverage [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] to put other effects of other systems to bear, [it] really shows the importance of having counter UAS at scale, not just at a fixed site.”

The Army is trying to equip at least two divisions with new anti-drone weapons by Sept. 30, he said at an AUSA event on Tuesday. The Defense Department plans to spend $668m on research into new anti-drone tech and $78m on procurement of new technologies for the next fiscal year (starting in September and ending in October, 2023.)

“So we’re not hamstrung from a UAS attack and not being able to defend all the way down to the forward lines,” Gainey said.

Those capabilities can take a variety of forms; the military is already working with hunter drones and laser and microwave guns. And they’re looking to experiment with more as soon as next month at a new tech demonstration, said Gainey. But new experimental capabilities should work with the Army’s Forward Area Air Defense Command and Control, or FAAD C2, software to better coordinate detection and delivery of effects, he said.

Russia has made large and small drones a key feature of its campaign against Ukrainian forces but the war has also shown how drones, in the hands of a poorly-trained or poorly motivated force, can also be a liability. For instance, downed Russian UAVs have produced intelligence gains for Ukraine, as when Ukranians were able to collect information about a Russian base from footage left on the memory card of a captured drone.

According to Sam Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and an adviser at the CNA Corporation, Russian Telegram channels supporting the war are full of advice for drone operators on proper operational security tactics. “Do not launch UAVs from (military) checkpoints or even near them,” reads one post. ”A lot will be visible from above if the UAV is lost or the video/telemetry radio channel is intercepted.” (Source: Defense One)

26 Aug 22. Dutch soldiers arrive in UK to help train Ukrainians. About 90 Dutch personnel will begin training Ukrainian recruits on 29 August, the Dutch Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported on its website on 24 August. The trainers from the Dutch army’s 13th Light Brigade left the Netherlands on 20 August. Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren told parliament on 19 August that the Dutch soldiers would conduct their training mission until the end of November. Since July, UK personnel have been providing Ukrainian volunteer recruits with five weeks of basic training in tactics, weapons handling and marksmanship, battlefield first aid, handling explosives, the law of armed conflict, and dealing with cyber threats. The Dutch trainers will provide training in tactical skills, marksmanship, battlefield first aid, and the law of armed conflict. In addition, a few Dutch staff officers will work with their UK counterparts co-ordinating the training programme. (Source: Janes)

24 Aug 22. US weapons package for Ukraine stresses long-haul commitment. With a new $2.98bn weapons and training package for Ukraine’s military, the Pentagon wants Russian President Vladimir Putin to know it plans to support Kyiv for the long haul. The Pentagon will buy newly announced air defense systems, counter-drone systems, radars, artillery systems and munitions from industry over months and years ― with Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding and apart from bns in equipment it has sent Ukraine from its stockpiles.

“Vladimir Putin seems to believe that Russia can win the long game, outlasting the Ukrainians in their will to fight and the international community’s will to continue to support Ukraine,” Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a press briefing. “This USAI package is a tangible demonstration that this is yet another Russian miscalculation.”

The package, which marks the single largest tranche since Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine six months ago, includes six more of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems with additional ammunition. Last month, the U.S. committed to two of the systems, developed by Norway’s Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace as well as American company Raytheon Technologies.

Also included are Vampire counter-unmanned aerial systems, more Puma drones and support equipment for ScanEagle drones. The Pentagon did not disclose the manufacturer, but Kahl said the Vampire “is a kinetic system that uses a small missile, essentially, to shoot UAVs out of the sky.”

While both sides are using thousands of drones, with the United States and Russia each signaling more are on the way, the conflict has mostly centered on artillery in recent weeks.

The new package includes up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition; 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition; up to 24 counter-artillery radars; and unnamed laser-guided rocket systems. Politico reported that the U.S. plans to send the M982 Excalibur, which is a laser-guided projectile made by Raytheon.

Funding for training, maintenance and sustainment was also included in the package.

According to Kahl, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the Joint Staff and U.S. European Command have worked with Ukraine’s government to form a plan for what its “future forces” will look like, cognizant of what Ukraine can afford and sustain. The aid is meant to be useful to keep fighting or, after a settlement, deter Russia.

“The capabilities here are really aimed at getting Ukraine what they’re going to need in the medium to long term so it’s not relevant to the fight today, tomorrow or next week. It is relevant to the ability of Ukraine to defend itself and deter further aggression a year from now, two years from now,” Kahl said.

Asked whether Ukraine would be weaned from Russian systems onto NATO-compatible equipment in three years, Kahl said Ukraine could hang onto its many legacy artillery systems. A gradual transition is underway, however, and Ukraine is using western howitzers.

Some 50 countries have provided urgent military aid, but ideally in the long term, Kahl said, “the Ukrainian military of the future will not be rooted in dozens of different systems, but a much smaller number of systems that are easier to sustain and maintain.”

Wednesday’s announcement came as Ukraine readied for intensified Russian attacks to coincide with Ukraine’s Independence Day and the six-month point from the start of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine.

“Over the past six months, Ukrainians have inspired the world with their extraordinary courage and dedication to freedom,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement to announce the package.

“They have stood resolute and strong in the face of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine,” he added. “And today is not only a celebration of the past, but a resounding affirmation that Ukraine proudly remains ― and will remain ― a sovereign and independent nation.”

The previous U.S. aid package to Ukraine, announced Friday, marked the first time Washington had pledged ScanEagle drones, for targeting artillery, as well as 105mm howitzers and anti-tank rounds for the Carl Gustaf rifle.

That tranche also included the AGM-88 high-speed, anti-radiation missile, which will allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian radars in the artillery-focused war. According to Kahl, the HARM system was modified to fire from Ukraine’s Russian-made MiG-29s.

Wednesday’s package is part of the $40 bn in security and economic assistance passed by Congress and signed into law in May. It is the 20th package of military weapons and equipment committed to Ukraine since the war began Feb. 24. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

The Norwegian-developed drone is a global market leader. It is used in a number of allied countries, including the United States and Great Britain. The drone is used for reconnaissance and target identification. It is easy to operate, robust, difficult to detect and particularly well suited for combat in urban areas, says Norway’s Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

The micro-drone will be acquired from Teledyne Flir, as a call-off on a framework agreement that The Norwegian Defence Material Agency has. Procurement, training and delivery of the material is done in collaboration with and coordinated by the British authorities.

Close cooperation with the defence industry will be crucial to continued key deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine in the future. This cooperation also ensures that Ukraine has more modern and efficient weapons and systems.

The donation marks that we stand by our commitment to continue supporting Ukraine, but it also entails a new direction for how Western countries support their fight. Until now we and our allies have mostly donated from our own stocks, says Gram.

An anti-drone system will also be purchased for approximately 100 m of the Norwegian funds for the fund. The system chosen is the anti-drone system Nightfighter from British SteelRock Technologies.

SteelRock Nightfighter is a portable system that provides protection against drones through effective jamming. The system is particularly suitable for protecting smaller patrols, artillery positions and other important resources

Norway and the UK remain determined to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine. These cutting-edge drones will help give Ukraine’s troops a vital advantage on the battlefield as they fight to defend their country against Putin’s brutal and unprovoked invasion,,says UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. (Source: UAS VISION)

24 Aug 22. Aid Package Is Proof Putin Can’t ‘Wait Out’ Ukraine, Partners. The $2.98bn package of military capabilities for Ukraine that President Joe Biden announced today is meant to demonstrate America’s commitment to the beleaguered nation and prove to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he cannot outlast the determination of Ukraine and the West in opposing Russia’s brutal invasion.

Colin H. Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said the package is meant to build “enduring strength” for Ukraine.

Western aid combined with Ukrainian courage and valor repulsed Russian invaders when they launched the attack on Ukraine in February. Western aid combined with Ukrainian courage prevented Russian invaders from overtaking the country and installing a puppet government.

“Russia’s efforts have not succeeded and will not succeed,” Kahl said during a Pentagon news conference today. “And as we have made clear at every level of this administration, we are committed to sustained security assistance as Ukraine defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We are with Ukraine today and — alongside our allies and partners — we will stick with Ukraine over the long haul.”

Russia has suffered tens of thousands of casualties in its war on Ukraine. They were driven from Kyiv and turned their attention to the eastern part of Ukraine. After some initial gains, Russian forces are bogged down, Kahl said. In Ukraine’s south, Ukrainian soldiers have made progress in taking back territory Russia took in the initial phase of the war.

With failure all around Vladimir Putin still “has not given up on his overall strategic objective of seizing most of Ukraine, toppling the regime, reclaiming Ukraine as part of a new Russian empire,” Kahl said. “What he has done is lengthened his timeline and recognized that he is off-plan.”

Putin’s strategy now is to wait out the Ukrainians, and wait out Ukraine’s allies and partners.

That is why this almost $3bn program is so important. This program directly challenges Putin’s theory. The Ukrainian people are united in opposing the invasion. Partners will continue to supply equipment, training and sustainment to Ukraine.

The aid package was done in close consultation with Ukrainians. “We’re really trying to be very deliberate and disciplined about what type of Ukrainian force matters in the next 12, 24, 36 months under any range of scenarios,” Kahl said. “It could be a scenario in which the war continues. It could be a scenario in which the violence ebbs because there’s an agreement, or because it just dies down a bit. But even in that instance, the Ukrainians are going to need to defend their territory and deter future aggression.” (Source: US DoD)

24 Aug 22. Russian attack kills 22 civilians on Ukraine’s Independence Day, Kyiv officials say.

Summary

Two strikes on small eastern town of Chaplyne, official says
21 killed at railway station, passenger train set ablaze
Rockets hit area north of Kyiv, no casualties reported
Aug. 24 holiday marked 1991 independence from Soviet rule
Ukraine, U.S. condemn possible Russian trials

KYIV, Aug 25 (Reuters) – A Russian missile attack killed 22 civilians and set a passenger train on fire in eastern Ukraine, officials in Kyiv said, with missile strikes north of the capital as Ukraine marked its Independence Day under heavy shelling.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had warned of the risk of “repugnant Russian provocations” ahead of the 31st anniversary on Wednesday of Ukraine’s independence from Moscow-dominated Soviet rule, and public celebrations were cancelled.

The holiday also coincided with six months since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, touching off Europe’s most devastating conflict since World War Two.

In video remarks to the United Nations Security Council, Zelenskiy said rockets hit a train in the small town of Chaplyne, some 145 km (90 miles) west of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

“Chaplyne is our pain today. As of this moment there are 22 dead,” he said in a later evening video address, adding that Ukraine would hold Russia responsible for all it had done.

Zelenskiy aide Kyrylo Tymoshenko later said Russian forces had shelled Chaplyne twice.

A boy was killed in the first attack when a missile hit his house, and 21 people died later when rockets hit the railway station and set fire to five train carriages, he said in a statement.

The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Russia denies targeting civilians.

“Russia’s missile strike on a train station full of civilians in Ukraine fits a pattern of atrocities. We will continue, together with partners from around the world, to stand with Ukraine and seek accountability for Russian officials,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Twitter.

There were also six explosions during a rocket attack on the Vyshgorod region directly north of Kyiv, but there were no casualties reported, regional official Olexiy Kuleba said.

“Two impacts were recorded. There were no casualties or injuries among civilians. There were no fires or destruction of residential buildings or infrastructure,” Kuleba wrote on the Telegram channel on Thursday morning. “The other explosions heard by the residents of the region were ‘the work’ of our air defences,” he said.

Otherwise, Russia’s military avoided Kyiv on the Ukrainian holiday and targeted frontline towns such as Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Nikopol and Dnipro with artillery attacks, Ukraine presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said.

NO PUBLIC CELEBRATIONS

Separately, Kyiv submitted information to international legal bodies about Russian plans, described by U.N. officials on Tuesday, to put captured Ukrainian fighters from the Azov Regiment on trial in Mariupol, officials said.

The port city fell to Russian forces in April after weeks of intense shelling as they encircled Ukrainian holdouts at the Azovstal steel plant.

Presidential adviser Arestovych said Zelenskiy made clear Kyiv would “never, ever” consider peace negotiations with Moscow if the trials went ahead.

U.S. Secretary of State spokesperson Ned Price said the unlawful process would amount to a “mockery of justice.”

Ukraine declared independence from the disintegrating Soviet Union in August 1991, and its population voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum that December.

Celebrations of the Aug. 24 public holiday were cancelled, but many Ukrainians marked the occasion by wearing embroidered shirts typical of the national dress.

Air raid sirens blared at least seven times in the capital Kyiv during the day, though there were no attacks.

Zelenskiy and his wife, Olena Zelenska, joined religious leaders for a service in Kyiv’s 11th-century St. Sophia cathedral and laid flowers at a memorial to fallen soldiers.

The 44-year-old leader said Ukraine would recapture Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.

MISSILE STRIKES FAR FROM FRONT LINES

Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian drone in the Vinnytsia region while Russian missiles landed in the Khmelnytskyi area, regional authorities said, both west of Kyiv and hundreds of kilometres from front lines.

No damage or casualties were reported, and Reuters could not verify the accounts.

Russia has repeatedly denied its forces are aiming at civilian targets. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told a meeting in Uzbekistan that Moscow had deliberately slowed what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine to avoid civilian casualties.

At a U.N. Security Council session on Wednesday, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia reiterated Moscow’s rationale for its actions in Ukraine, saying they aimed to “denazify and demilitarise” the country to remove “obvious” security threats to Russia.

Moscow’s stance has been dismissed by Ukraine and the West as a baseless pretext for an imperialist war of conquest.

INCREASING WESTERN SUPPORT

U.S. President Joe Biden announced nearly $3 bn for weapons and equipment for Ukraine in Washington’s “biggest tranche of security assistance to date”. Under Biden, the United States has committed more than $13.5 bn in military aid to Ukraine.

Russia has made few advances in recent months after its troops were repelled from Kyiv in the early weeks of the war.

Ukraine’s top military intelligence official, Kyrylo Budanov, said on Wednesday Russia’s offensive was slowing because of low morale and physical fatigue in its ranks, and Moscow’s “exhausted” resource base.

Russian forces have seized areas of the south, including those on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts and large tracts of the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk that make up the eastern Donbas region.

The war has killed thousands of civilians, forced more than a third of Ukraine’s 41 m people from their homes, left cities in ruins and shaken the global economy, creating shortages of essential foodgrains and pushing up energy prices. (Source: Reuters)

The remark on television by Defence Intelligence agency chief Kyrylo Budanov was one of the strongest signals by Kyiv that it believes Russia’s offensive power may be waning.

“Russia has rather seriously slowed down the tempo of its assault. The reason for this is the exhaustion of their resource base, as well as a moral and physical fatigue from the fighting,” he said.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said earlier that Moscow had deliberately slowed down its campaign in Ukraine, something he said had been driven by the need to reduce civilian casualties.

Russia rapidly captured swathes of southern Ukraine in the beginning of the invasion launched by Moscow exactly six months ago, but was repelled from around Kyiv and withdrew to focus on the east.

Moscow claimed the capture of the eastern region of Luhansk in early July after a series of long, bloody battles, but it has not claimed any major territorial gains since.

Separately, Budanov said that the Russian air defence systems in the annexed peninsula of Crimea “don’t really work”.

The comment, when asked about a spate of explosions on the peninsula for which Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, was one of the clearest hints yet that Ukraine may be conducting strikes there.

“Crimea … is defended by Russia’s best air defence systems,” he said. “They don’t really work, and they are not able to defend territory captured from Ukraine.” (Source: Reuters)

24 Aug 22. Ukraine rejects ‘cynical’ Independence Day greeting by Belarusian leader. Ukraine rejected on Wednesday what it called a “cynical” Independence Day greeting from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, blasting Minsk for allowing Russia to stage attacks on Ukraine from its territory.

In an unexpected message on his website to mark the 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s independence from the Moscow-dominated Soviet Union, Lukashenko wished Ukrainians “peaceful skies, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a decent life”.

Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has allowed Moscow to use its territory to send thousands of troops into neighbouring Ukraine, as well as to launch missiles from its airspace.

“I am convinced that today’s disputes will not be able to destroy the centuries-old foundation of sincere good neighbourly relations between the peoples of the two countries,” Lukashenko said in the statement.

Senior Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak sharply criticised the statement on Twitter.

“Lukashenko truly believes the world does not notice his participation in crimes against Ukraine,” Podolyak wrote.

“That is why he cynically wishes us a ‘peaceful sky’ while allowing deadly rockets to hit us,” he added.

Lukashenko’s statement stood at odds with some of his recent declarations of support for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.

In July, he described Belarus as “the only country in the world to support Russia in its fight against Nazism”, echoing a claim by Moscow that it is conducting a “special military operation” in Ukraine to cleanse it of ultra-nationalists.

Kyiv and its Western allies say Russia is waging an unprovoked imperial war of aggression.

Lukashenko has previously said that Belarus was “being dragged” into joining the war by Kyiv’s actions, and that Belarusian air defences had shot down Ukrainian missiles. Ukraine denies firing at targets in Belarus. (Source: Reuters)

24 Aug 22. U.S. Announces $2.98bn in Aid to Ukraine. On the 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, the United States is reinforcing its long-term commitment to the nation with $2.98 bn to train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces for their struggle against the Russian invasion.

President Joe Biden announced the aid at the White House. He said the people of the world have been awed and inspired by Ukrainian resistance and pledged the United States will stand with the people of Ukraine as they fight to defend their sovereignty.

The aid “will allow Ukraine to acquire air defense systems, artillery systems and munitions, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and radars to ensure it can continue to defend itself over the long term,” the president said.

It is the largest single U.S. aid package to Ukraine since the Russians invaded the nation six months ago.

The aid “underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term, representing multi-year investments in critical capabilities to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s armed forces as it continues to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a written statement.

This aid is tangible proof of America’s belief in the Ukrainian people. Unlike the presidential drawdown authority that allows the almost immediate delivery to Ukraine of existing stocks of weapons, these funds are part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

This process allows the United States to procure capabilities from industry. “This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term,” Ryder said.

These capabilities include six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and munitions. It also includes up to 245,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition and up to 65,000 rounds of 120 mm mortar ammunition.

The process will also supply up to 24 counter-artillery radars, Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems and support equipment for Scan Eagle unmanned aerial systems.

Russia is using unmanned aerial systems, too, and the aid package will provide VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems to the Ukrainians.

The aid will also provide laser-guided rocket systems.

The money will also be used for training, maintenance and sustainment.

Since January 2021, the United States has committed more than $13.5 bn in security assistance to Ukraine.

The equipment the United States provides has changed as the Russian invasion has continued. Originally, the U.S. provided anti-armor and antiaircraft munitions, including the Javelin and Stinger systems. After the Ukrainian military drove the Russians back from the Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, the nature of the war changed. Russia then attacked the eastern part of Ukraine. The nature of the combat changed, and the fighting required more artillery pieces and crew-served capabilities. (Source: US DoD)

24 Aug 22. Nearly $3bn in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine.

Attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder:

On August 24, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced approximately $3bn in additional security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).

This USAI package, which is being announced on Ukraine Independence Day, underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term – representing a multi-year investments to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s Armed Forces as it continues to defend its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression. Unlike Presidential Drawdown (PDA), which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term to ensure Ukraine can continue to defend itself as an independent, sovereign and prosperous state. It is the biggest tranche of security assistance for Ukraine to date. Capabilities include:

Six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) with additional munitions for NASAMS;
Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
Up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition;
Up to 24 counter-artillery radars;
Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and support equipment for Scan Eagle UAS systems;
VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Laser-guided rocket systems;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

The United States has committed more than $13.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021. In total, the United States has committed more than $15.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014.

Through both PDA and USAI, DoD continues to work with Ukraine to meet both its immediate and longer-term security assistance needs.

Together with our Allies and partners, our unified efforts will help Ukraine continue to be successful today and build the enduring strength of their forces to ensure the continued freedom and independence of the Ukrainian people for years to come. (Source: US DoD)

24 Aug 22. Former Army chief: Russians made ‘every possible military mistake.’ General Lord Richard Dannatt said the Russian military has “failed spectacularly” in their invasion of Ukraine.

It has been six months since the Russian military entered Ukraine and a former Chief of the General Staff has said the Russians have “failed spectacularly”.

“Every possible military mistake that the Russians could have made, they made and a few more that we hadn’t even dreamt of, and that attack from the north failed spectacularly”, Lord Dannatt told Forces News.

Lord Dannatt believes the Russian performance has been a “surprise to any honest military observer from the West”, adding: “I think we all credited them with a greater capability than has been demonstrated.”

However, he did highlight that the West has “involved itself in a lot of major operations in the last 30, 40 years”.

“The coalition, NATO, has got used to planning larger operations, the Russians haven’t done this.

“Their only major intervention was in Afghanistan, and we all know what a disaster that was. Beyond that, they’ve made limited interventions in Syria.

“But in terms of planning a major campaign, exercising proper top-down command and control of an operational nature, they haven’t done it. And they’ve failed spectacularly.”

Wednesday marks six months since Russia invaded on 24 February, and is a day that coincides with the Independence Day of Ukraine – when the Declaration of Independence from the Soviet Union was issued in 1991.

Lord Dannatt believes that the conflict “at some point” will eventually return to negotiations.

He said: “This started with a breakdown in negotiations, there’s now at least a six-month, and a little bit longer, period of warfighting. But as Clausewitz said, ‘war is a continuation of politics by other means’. This will go back to negotiation at some point.” (Source: forces.net)

24 Aug 22. 850 micro-drones part of UK’s latest military aid delivery to Ukraine as Johnson visits Kyiv. The helicopter drones feed back live video and still images and are smaller than a mobile phone. Two thousand ‘state-of-the-art’ drones and loitering munitions are part of the UK’s latest military aid package to Ukraine, it has been announced, as Boris Johnson visited Kyiv.

The Prime Minister, making his final visit to war-torn Ukraine before leaving office, said “the UK will continue to stand with our Ukrainian friends” as he set out a further £54m package of military aid.

Mr Johnson, who has formed a close bond with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Ukraine “can and will win this war” with Russia.

The Government said the most recent delivery will improve the Ukrainian armed forces’ long-range surveillance and defensive targeting ability.

The package includes 850 hand-launched Black Hornet micro-drones, which are specifically designed for use in towns and villages, and are deployed to detect approaching enemy forces.

The helicopter drones, which feed back live video and still images, are smaller than a mobile phone and troops can be trained to fly them in less than 20 minutes.

The support also includes larger drones and loitering weapons, which can be used to target Russian vehicles and installations.

The UK is also preparing to give mine-hunting vehicles to operate off the coast, with Ukrainian personnel being trained in their use in UK waters in the coming weeks.

Mr Johnson said: “For the past six months, the United Kingdom has stood shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, supporting this sovereign country to defend itself from this barbaric and illegal invader.

“Today’s package of support will give the brave and resilient Ukrainian armed forces another boost in capability, allowing them to continue to push back Russian forces and fight for their freedom.”

During his visit to the Ukraine capital, the Prime Minister also received the Order of Liberty, the highest award that can be bestowed on foreign nationals, for the UK’s support for Ukraine. (Source: forces.net)

24 Aug 22. Russian opposition politician arrested over Ukraine war criticism. Former mayor of Ekaterinburg faces up to three years in prison on charges of ‘discrediting Russia’s armed forces.’ Russian police have arrested one of the few prominent opposition politicians who is not yet behind bars or in exile for criticising President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Evgeny Roizman, the former mayor of Ekaterinburg, the largest city in Russia’s central Urals region, faces up to three years in prison on charges of “discrediting Russia’s armed forces,” the interior ministry said on Wednesday. The ministry said Roizman had posted “a video whose content discredited the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to defend the country’s interests and citizens” and would be taken to Moscow, according to Interfax. As Roizman was led away by police after they had searched his Ekaterinburg apartment he called out to bystanders that he had been charged with “basically one phrase, the invasion of Ukraine”. Roizman is the best-known of a small group of dissidents who stayed in Russia and denounced Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on social media despite a law that essentially bans all public criticism. A former MP, anti-drug activist and friend of jailed anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, Roizman was elected mayor of Ekaterinburg in 2013, beating the pro-Kremlin candidate amid a nationwide backlash against Putin’s return to power a year earlier. He stepped down in 2018 in protest over a decision to scrap elections for the mayoral post as the Kremlin grew increasingly intolerant of dissent. Last month he posted a photo of himself on Twitter alongside three other anti-Kremlin activists at a forum in Moscow last year with a caption saying, “I’m the only one still free.” His supporters had expected him to be arrested after two of the other activists in the photo, Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza, were charged earlier this year for criticising the war. But Roizman remained defiant on social media, where he regularly posted profanity-laden responses to state media reports carrying the Kremlin’s narrative about the war. He has already been fined three times in Ekaterinburg’s courts for his social media comments. He was also fined for “not respecting the authorities” in connection with a foul-mouthed post on Twitter in May about Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. In an interview posted on YouTube last week, Roizman had said the pressure was not enough to convince him to leave the country. (Source: FT.com)

Instead, Slovakia will receive 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany. Along with the equipment, spare parts will arrive, and personnel will be trained. Leopard-2A4 tanks for the Hungarian Armed Forces. July 2020. Photo credits: honvedelem.hu

Slovakia will receive the first Leopard this year, the rest of the tanks are expected next year. The Leopard 2A4 tanks for Slovakia will be upgraded. The Minister of Defense reported that the cost of the equipment that will be transferred to the country is more than €100m. Regarding the transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine, Yaroslav Nad said that such a delivery is not planned.

“At the moment, we are not considering sending T-72 tanks to Ukraine,” Nad stated.

As previously reported, Ukraine received four Zuzana 2 self-propelled guns from Slovakia. The first four artillery systems are already at the disposal of the Ukrainian military. In June, Ukraine and Slovakia signed a contract for the supply of eight 155mm Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers.

Ukraine closely cooperates with Slovakia in providing military assistance. In particular, the country wants to transfer MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine for €300m in the fall.

In addition, Slovak defense enterprises are ready to upgrade and repair Ukrainian equipment.

Also, since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country has repeatedly transferred equipment and ammunition to Ukraine. (Source: https://mil.in.ua/)

24 Aug 22. We will fight ‘until the end’, Zelensky declares on Independence Day.

“We will fight until the end,” President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared in an emotional speech to mark 31 years of Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union on Wednesday.

President Zelensky vowed in his Independence Day address that his country would not be making “any concession or compromise” to Moscow.

“We don’t care what army you have, we only care about our land. We will fight for it until the end,” Zelensky said in the video address, which also marks six months since the invasion began.

He told Ukrainians that the country was reborn when Russia invaded on February 24 and would recapture annexed Crimea and occupied areas in the east.

“A new nation appeared in the world on February 24 at four in the morning. It was not born, but reborn. A nation that did not cry, scream or take fright. One that did not flee. Did not give up. And did not forget,” he said.

President Zelensky added that Ukraine no longer saw the war ending when there was peace, but when Kyiv was actually victorious.

“What for us is the end of the war? We used to say: peace. Now we say: victory,” he said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

24 Aug 22. Defiant Ukraine marks Independence Day six months after invasion.

Summary

Zelenskiy warns of ‘brutal strikes’ by Russia
Aug. 24 holiday marks six months since invasion
U.N. nuclear agency could visit Ukraine plant in days

KYIV, Aug 24 (Reuters) – Ukrainians mark 31 years since they broke free from the Russia-dominated Soviet Union on Wednesday in what is certain to be a day of defiance against the Kremlin’s six-month-old war to subdue the country once again.

Ukraine’s Independence Day falls six months after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion and will be observed with subdued celebrations under the threat of attack from land, air and sea.

Public gatherings are banned in the capital Kyiv and a curfew is in force in the front-line eastern city of Kharkiv, which has weathered months of shelling.

The government laid out the hulks of burnt-out Russian tanks and armoured vehicles like war trophies in central Kyiv in a show of defiance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned of the possibility of “repugnant Russian provocations”.

“We are fighting against the most terrible threat to our statehood and also at a time when we have achieved the greatest level of national unity,” Zelenskiy said in a Tuesday evening address.

Ukraine’s military urged people to take air raid warnings seriously.

“Russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile attacks on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. Do not ignore air raid signals,” the general staff said in a statement on Wednesday.

Zelenskiy told representatives of about 60 countries and international organisations attending a virtual summit on Crimea on Tuesday that Ukraine would drive Russian forces out of the peninsular by any means necessary, without consulting other countries beforehand.

The war has killed thousands of civilians, forced over a third of Ukraine’s 41m people from their homes, left cities in ruins and shaken global markets. It is largely at a standstill with no immediate prospect of peace talks.

In addition to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, Russian forces have expanded control to areas of the south including the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts, and chunks of the eastern Donbas region comprising the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Ukraine’s armed forces have said almost 9,000 military personnel have been killed in the war.

Russia has not publicised its losses but U.S. intelligence estimates 15,000 killed in what Moscow calls a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine. Kyiv says the invasion is an unprovoked act of imperial aggression.

Ukraine broke free of the Soviet Union in August 1991 after a failed putsch in Moscow and an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians voted in a referendum to declare independence.

‘INTENSIVE’ TALKS ON PLANT

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said the U.N. nuclear watchdog hoped to gain access to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine within days.

Both sides have accused the other of firing missiles and artillery dangerously close to the plant, Europe’s biggest, raising fears of a nuclear catastrophe.

“I’m continuing to consult very actively and intensively with all parties,” Grossi said in a statement on Tuesday. “The mission is expected to take place within the next few days if ongoing negotiations succeed.”

Pro-Moscow forces took over the plant soon after the invasion began but Ukrainian technicians are still operating it. The United Nations has called for the area to be demilitarised.

Russia on Tuesday accused Ukraine of attacking the plant with artillery, guided munitions and a drone, drawing a denial from Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya.

“Nobody who is at least conscious can imagine that Ukraine would target a nuclear power plant at tremendous risk of nuclear catastrophe and on its own territory,” Kyslytsya said at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting in New York called by Russia.

Ukraine’s allies offered more military support on Wednesday.

Norway and Britain will jointly supply micro drones worth up to 90 m Norwegian crowns ($9.3 m) to help with reconnaissance and target identification, the Norwegian defence ministry said.

The United States, which has sent $10.6 bn in security assistance to Ukraine, will announce a new package of about $3 bn as early as Wednesday, a U.S. official said.

Advanced U.S. missile systems appear to have helped Ukraine strike deep behind the front lines in recent months, taking out ammunition dumps and command posts.

In the latest mysterious fire at a Russian military facility, Russian officials said ammunition stored in southern Russia near the border with Ukraine spontaneously combusted on Tuesday.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod region, blamed hot weather for the fire, drawing ridicule from Ukraine.

“In a few months we will find out whether Russian ammunition can explode because of the cold,” Ukraine’s defence ministry said on Twitter.

“The five main causes of sudden explosions in Russia are: winter, spring, summer, autumn and smoking.” (Source: Reuters)

23 Aug 22. Slovakia to donate 30 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine -minister. Slovakia will send 30 tracked infantry fighting BVP-1 vehicles to Ukraine as it will receive 15 Leopard tanks from Germany, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Tuesday.

Germany initially opposed providing Kyiv with heavy weaponry to help it defend itself against Russia’s invasion launched on Feb. 24, but then reversed its position and even sent some of its own weapons to Ukraine.

“I am very glad that Slovakia will be able to donate 30 BVP-1 vehicles and get from Germany 15 Leopard 2-A4 tanks,” Nad said after talks with German Defence Ministry State Secretary Benedikt Zimmer in the Slovak capital Bratislava.

Nad said the deal also included ammunition, spare parts and complex training.

Slovakia has already donated to Ukraine an S-300 air defence system, Mi-series military helicopters, self-propelled howitzers, and Grad multiple-rocket launcher rockets.

Bratislava has also hinted it might give to Ukraine its Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, which it plans to ground this month as the Czech Republic and Poland have agreed to patrol Slovak air space. (Source: Reuters)

23 Aug 22. 800 Taiwanese ‘Flying Mortar’ Drones Reportedly Shipped to Ukraine. Revolver 860 developed by DronesVision is probably one of the most interesting drones used by Ukrainians . A large quadcopter is in practice a flying mortar – the drone is equipped with a revolver cartridge that can hold 8 60 mm mortar shells.

It is a weapon with a much greater firepower than improvised “bombs” made of hand grenades or 40-mm rounds for grenade launchers. At the same time, 60mm mortars are a very popular light support weapon. Mortars of this caliber, as produced in Tarnów LMP-2017, were delivered to Ukraine , among others through Poland, and the ammunition for them is cheap and easily available.

The Revolver 860 drone weighs 42 kg and is 1.35 m in diameter. When loaded with eight 60 mm rounds, it can fly up to 20 km with a flight duration in the range of 25-40 minutes.

What distinguishes it from the many drones or equipment used by soldiers, used by the Aerorozvidka organization described by Karolina Modzelewska , is its interesting adaptation to combat tasks.

The Revolver 860 unmanned aerial vehicle is equipped with a revolver cartridge – an 8-position “drum” from which mortars can be released one by one. The Revolver 860 is a new weapon – just a few months ago, the magazine “Stern” described the revolver magazine, indicating a company from the Netherlands as the originator of the solution.

The manufacturer emphasizes that the machine can also be adapted to other types of ammunition, such as heavier 81 or even 120 mm mortar shells, although after such a modification the number of carried loads will probably be much smaller.

Taiwanese aid provided by Poland

The information about the handover of drones by Taiwan is also interesting because Poland was involved in sending them to Ukraine – according to the Oryx website tracking the conflict – Poland was involved. The Polish trace is also indicated by materials in the German media describing the innovative equipment of drones.

Probably a dozen or so volunteers from Taiwan are fighting in the armed forces of Ukraine. The president of Taiwan also made a symbolic gesture by donating his salary to help Ukraine. (Source: UAS VISION/WP Tech)

23 Aug 22. A valuable Russian Auriga-1.2V portable satellite communications station was destroyed by an improvised munition dropped from a Ukrainian COTS UAV. It is used to organize two high-speed satellite channels for secure communication between army command & frontline units. (Source: Ukraine Twitter)

The delivery of the Kirpi vehicles was the result of a government agreement, rather than a deal between Ukraine and BMC, which makes the Kirpi, according to a government official. Ukraine is currently fighting off a Russian invasion, which began Feb. 24.

“Under the deal, the Turkish Ministry of National Defence delivered an initial batch of 50 Kirpis to Ukraine,” the government source told Defense News on the condition of anonymity, as he was not authorized to speak to the media. “There will be further deliveries.”

A BMC official confirmed to Defense News the delivery and the structure of the contract.

“This deal does not involve our company in any way,” the BMC official said, also requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. “The Ankara government delivered a batch of Kirpis it had in its military inventory.”

The Kirpi 1 is a heavy armored troop carrier. Its design work took off in 2008, with the first prototype available in 2009. The Turkish government signed a contract with BMC for the procurement of 614 Kirpi 1 vehicles, and the Land Forces have already used the vehicle type in the field. More than 1,500 Kirpi vehicles have been sold, with more than 200 to foreign customers.

In 2018, BMC introduced the Kirpi 2 and won another Turkish contract for 529 units.

The Kirpi is equipped with seat dampers, a GPS system, a rearview camera and an automatic fire-extinguishing system. It has five small arms embrasures and four bulletproof windows on each side of the passenger compartment.

The vehicle can be armed with a 7.62mm or 12.7mm machine gun, and is also available with remote controlled weapon stations. (Source: Defense News)

22 Aug 22. Delayed kamikaze drone for Ukraine on track for next month: Pentagon. The U.S. Army is poised to award a contract for longer-range, harder-hitting kamikaze drones for Ukraine more than five months after they were pledged to the fight against Russia, according to the Pentagon.

The research and development contract for 10 of the Switchblade 600 drones in question, made by AeroVironment, is expected in the next 30 days, Pentagon spokeswoman Jessica Maxwell said in an email to Defense News.

While Russia’s five-month-old invasion of Ukraine has mostly been an artillery war, thousands of drones are being used by both sides, and both the United States and Russia have been signaling that more are on the way.

“I think loitering munitions are going to be a significant part of that larger amount because they don’t require a lot of infrastructure, they don’t require a runway,” said Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones with the Center for Naval Analyses and Center for New American Security. “They may play a significant role in the way that the Russian military wants to attack Ukrainian soldiers, materiel, logistics and everything else on Russia’s list.”

The Pentagon has already sent Ukraine loitering munitions, which means the system itself is the payload: a number of the smaller, shorter-ranged Switchblade 300 variant, and the Phoenix Ghost. But observers say the Switchblade 600′s anti-armor payload, weighing in at 30 pounds and boasting longer loiter time, would offer an even better tool for finding and striking Russian troops and equipment during Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive in southern region of Kherson.

“This Switchblade capability can be instrumental as the Ukrainians are preparing their attack on Kherson and Crimea, because they can be launched beyond the range of Russian systems and inflict damage on Russian infrastructure,” Bendett said.

The appeal of loitering munitions is that they can provide reconnaissance and strike in a single package. And although less sophisticated drones can be used to spot Russian targets for their artillery, Russian forces have been using electronic warfare to trace them to their pilots and strike back.

“There have been a lot of losses among commercial drone operators on both sides, and the further away from combat you can launch your UAV, the better off you are,” Bendett said.

The 300 variant weighs 5.5 pounds, can fly 10 kilometers and loiter 15 minutes, while the 120-pound 600 version can fly 40 kilometers and loiter in the air for 40 minutes, according to the manufacturer.

The greater longevity and heavier payload would help Ukrainian forces target Russia’s armored, self-propelled artillery, in particular, said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“You can use a 300 maybe to damage a radar, but the more a Russian target is armored and the less Russian forces are in the open, the more you’re going to want the Switchblade 600,” Bowman said. “They have the same name, but they’re very different systems with very different target sets ― and they’d both be incredibly helpful to Ukrainian forces now and in the coming weeks.”

It’s unclear when the Switchblade 600 will arrive in Ukraine. The U.S. has quickly surged ms of dollars worth of military aid to Ukraine, but the Switchblade 600 is a “notable and unfortunate exception where we’re not moving as fast as we should be,” Bowman said.

Part of the lag in getting the 600 to Ukraine is that unlike the earlier 300 variant, it’s not considered a fielded capability and, because it’s still in the prototype phase, must complete testing and evaluation. According to Maxwell, the Pentagon spokesperson, the delivery date will be set once the contract is finalized.

Meanwhile, beyond loitering munitions, the Pentagon pledged last week it would send Ukraine the Insitu-made ScanEagle, a long-endurance, low-altitude reconnaissance drone intended to help guide targeting for Ukrainian artillery.

The most well-known drone in Ukraine’s arsenal has been the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2, a medium-altitude, long endurance drone, capable of reconnaissance but also striking and returning for re-use.

Russian has been publicizing its use of loitering munitions, namely the KUB along with the Lancet, both made by Kalashnikov subsidiary Zala. Russia has reportedly shown signs it plans to buy drones from Iran ― which could flood the war zone with hundreds more drones, Bendett said.

“Ukraine does need these munitions because they provide an excellent standoff capability,” Bendett said. “And they provide an excellent reminder to the Russians that they are not safe in Ukraine. Their infrastructure, their soldiers and their equipment are not safe because at any given point they may be hit by a Ukrainian UAV.” (Source: Defense News)

16 Aug 22. The war in Ukraine shows how important private satellite companies have become—especially in times of conflict. Satellites owned by private companies have played an unexpectedly important role in the war in Ukraine. For example, in early August 2022, images from the private satellite company Planet Labs showed that a recent attack on a Russian military base in Crimea caused more damage than Russia had suggested in public reports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the losses as evidence of Ukraine’s progress in the war.

Soon after the war began, Ukraine requested data from private satellite companies around the world. By the end of April, Ukraine was getting imagery from U.S. companies mere minutes after the data was collected.

My research focuses on international cooperation in satellite Earth observations, including the role of the private sector. While experts have long known that satellite imagery is useful during a conflict, the war in Ukraine has shown that commercial satellite data can make a decisive difference—informing both military planning as well as the public view of a war. Based on the strategic value commercial satellite imagery has held during this war, I believe it is likely that more nations will be investing in private satellite companies.

Growth of the commercial satellite sector

Remote-sensing satellites circle the Earth collecting imagery, radio signals and many other types of data. The technology was originally developed by governments for military reconnaissance, weather forecasting and environmental monitoring. But over the past two decades, commercial activity in this area has grown rapidly—particularly in the U.S. The number of commercial Earth observation satellites has increased from 11 in 2006 to more than 500 in 2022, about 350 of which belong to U.S. companies.

The earliest commercial satellite remote-sensing companies worked closely with the military from the beginning, but many of the newer entrants were not developed with national security applications in mind. Planet Labs, the U.S.-based company that has played a big role in the Ukrainian conflict, describes its customers as those in “agriculture, government, and commercial mapping,” and it hopes to expand to “insurance, commodities, and finance.” Spire, another U.S. company, was originally focused on monitoring weather and tracking commercial maritime activity. However, when the U.S. government set up pilot programs in 2016 to evaluate the value of data from these companies, many of the companies welcomed this new source of revenue.

Value of commercial data for national security

The U.S. government has its own highly capable network of spy satellites, so partnerships with private companies may come as a surprise, but there are clear reasons the U.S. government benefits from these arrangements.

First is the simple fact that purchasing commercial data allows the government to see more locations on the Earth more frequently. In some cases, data is now available quickly enough to enable real-time decision-making on the battlefield.

The second reason has to do with data sharing practices. Sharing data from spy satellites requires officials to go through a complex declassification process. It also risks revealing information about classified satellite capabilities. Neither of these is a concern with data from private companies. This aspect makes it easier for the military to share satellite information within the U.S. government as well as with U.S. allies. This advantage has proved to be a key factor for the war in Ukraine. (Source: Satnews)

22 Aug 22. Ukrainian C-UAS systems “have shot down 55 Russian drones” – Tim de Zitter report. An independent and personally-developed report by defence analyst Tim De Zitter (Lifecycle manager Land Combat Missiles, GBAD and CUAS and GMG systems within the Belgian Armed Forces), shared on Linkedin suggests that Ukraine is winning both the UAS and counter-UAS (C-UAS) battle, with 55 Russian drones destroyed and 48 captured, against 27 Ukrainian drones destroyed and four captured.

The report lists individual drone types, their roles and their losses from both sides, using information in the public domain.

Of particular note is the performance of the Bayraktar TB2s in Ukrainian service. Russian C-UAS systems have shot down 13 TB2s but not before TB2s have destroyed 10 Tor, Buk and Pantsir air defence systems, two KA-52, two fuel trains and multiple armoured vehicles, artillery units and other vehicles.

“Ukrainian drones can drop some kind of ammunition, and then they just fly in again empty and this is an incredible stress for people. People get tired morally, they have phobias. It’s exhausting,” according to a quote from an unnamed Russian soldier.

For more information

https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E1FAQHKiRsu9bewGA/feedshare-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1660834064299?e=1661990400&v=beta&t=m_MJBOSF9MamIN-v2-5zbf1QP5lfuiwLkMk3m_DSFdg (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

21 Aug 22. Russia says it has deployed Kinzhal hypersonic missile three times in Ukraine.

Summary

This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine

Russia has deployed hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles three times over the course of what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Sunday.

The Kinzhal missiles are part of an array of new hypersonic weapons President Vladimir Putin presented in 2018 in a bellicose speech in which he said they could hit almost any point in the world and evade a U.S.-built missile shield.

Shoigu, speaking on state television, said the missiles had proved effective in hitting high-value targets on all three occasions, hailing them as without compare and as almost impossible to take down when in flight.

“We have deployed it three times during the special military operation,” Shoigu said in an interview broadcast on Rossiya 1. “And three times it showed brilliant characteristics.”

Russia first used the Kinzhal system in Ukraine about a month after sending tens of thousands of troops into its neighbour’s territory, striking a large weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region.

This week, Russia’s defence ministry said three MiG-31E warplanes equipped with Kinzhal missiles had been relocated to the Kaliningrad region, a Russian Baltic coast exclave located between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.

On Russia’s Navy Day late last month, Putin announced that the navy would receive what he called “formidable” hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles in coming months. The missiles can travel at nine times the speed of sound, outrunning air defences. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

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Ukraine Conflict – August 29th.

Military and security developments
26 Aug 24.
• On 25 August, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine maintained their operational tempo by conducting a series of limited ground operations and artillery attacks in the vicinity of Slovyansk, Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and Kharkiv City. Similar operations also in combination with airstrikes were conducted in the vicinity of Kharkiv City. The operations are understood to have resulted in no Russian territorial expansion. Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, reported that Russian forces conducted approximately 200 air operations in Ukraine on 24 August, Ukraine’s Independence Day.
• Similarly on the southern axis, Russian troops also conducted limited ground operations in the Kherson oblast, albeit resulting in no territorial gains. Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian forces near Zaporizhzhia and Bila Krynytsia, while missiles, including Smerch and S-300, reportedly targeted civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, in Mykolaiv City. Ukrainian forces, for their part, successfully destroyed various Russian warehouses and command posts.
• In Kherson, Ukrainian armed forces shelled the Antonivsky bridge, which connects Kherson with Oleshky and Hola Prystan, to prevent Russian forces from transporting heavy military equipment and ammunition. Images shared on social media showed the damaged bridge and no vehicles in sight, suggesting that the resulting damage was sufficient to prevent Russian units from using it and consequently slow down their operations and transportation efforts.
• Energoatom, the Ukrainian state’s nuclear company responsible for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, stated on 25 August that the plant’s two working reactor blocs were disconnected from the national power grid due to nearby forest fires allegedly caused by Russian shelling. According to Energoatom, the plant’s operational security system is still working normally. Russian forces blamed the incident on Ukrainian forces but provided no evidence to their claims. On 25 August, UK Ministry of Defence intelligence estimated that Russian forces will “exploit any Ukrainian military activity” near the nuclear power plant “for propaganda purposes”. The nuclear power plant remained disconnected as of the morning of 26 August. Besides, the cities of Energodar, Melitopol, and Kherson remained without power for several hours on 25 August due to disruptions to the power lines caused by the forest fire. Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, also claimed that all captured areas in the Zaporizhzhia region were also without water and gas.
• According to a 25 August press release of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, the Foundation delivered 12 A1-CM Furia reconnaissance and artillery fire adjustment drones to four Ukrainian brigades in the east and south. Meanwhile, on 26 August, Taiwan’s DroneVision, a drone manufacturer, did not confirm whether it had provided its Revolver 860 drones to Ukrainian forces, following reports by Polish news outlet WP indicating that Taiwan had provided Ukraine with 800 Revolver 860 drones.
• Attacks by alleged Ukrainian partisans against politically sensitive Russian targets in occupied territories continued. On 25 August, for example, the Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the headquarters for referendum preparations and for issuing Russian passports in Pryazovske, in Zaporizhia oblast, was attacked with explosives. Meanwhile, Russian authorities are speeding up the economic and educational integration processes of occupied Ukrainian territories with Russia.
• On 26 August, Serhiy Haidai, the head of the Luhansk Regional Military-Civil Administration, Ukrainian forces killed 200 Russian paratroopers based at the Donbas Hotel in Kadiivka, Luhansk region. Ukrainian forces are understood to have targeted the Russian position with HIMARS missiles.
• Meanwhile, the recruitment drive for volunteer battalions in Russia continued, but many have yet to hit their recruitment targets. Local media reported on 25 August that the ‘Orlovskyi’ volunteer battalion had moved to an unspecified base before its imminent deployment to Ukraine, while the ‘Shaimuratov’ and ‘Dostavalov’ volunteer battalions are expected to also soon deploy to Ukraine. However, while Russian forces in Ukraine will welcome additional manpower, it is unlikely that these volunteer battalions will lead to considerable combat successes.
• On 26 August, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport extended temporary flight restrictions to 11 airports – namely Anapa, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Gelendzhik, Krasnodar, Kursk, Lipetsk, Rostov-on-Don, Simferopol, and Elista – until 4 September. The report provided no explanation, but Russia has closed off part of its southern and central airspace to civil aircraft since the launch of the invasion in February. Therefore the closure is likely designed to facilitate further Russian air operations in Ukraine, sustaining the relatively high tempo of airstrikes.
Political developments
• On 25 August, the Belgian government announced that they are going to provide EUR 8 million in non-lethal support to Ukraine, including the delivery of first aid kits, winter clothes, medicines, and night vision goggles. The financial assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces will be provided through NATO’s Comprehensive Assistance Package Trust Fund which was set up in 2016 after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
• Today, 26 August, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi said that the mission to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, conditions for which have been agreed by both Ukraine and Russia, could become permanent. The mission is currently scheduled to launch next week. The announcement came after the power plant was disconnected from Ukraine’s national grid yesterday due to cuts to the power lines. Subsequently, Grossi claimed that there are security incidents taking place at the nuclear power plant, “almost every day” and that he is ”determined to personally lead the IAEA mission to the plant in the next few days”.
• On 25 August, the transport ministers of the United Kingdom and Ukraine signed a joint action plan. According to the plan, the United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with funds and engineers to help the country rebuild its airports, bridges, train network, ports and runways after the war.
• For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our Scenario Planning and Projections report.
Forecast

On 25 August, President Putin signed a decree to expand Russia’s military by 137,000 personnel from 1.9 million to 2.04 million from 1 January 2023, reinforcing our previous assessments that Moscow is struggling to recruit new members to its military. The decree does not specify how the number of military personnel will be increased, therefore forces could be mobilised either through conscription or voluntary service. Of note, Russia’s recent efforts to step up voluntary mobilisation have failed to lead to a significant increase in volunteers despite local administrations sending out summons to young men of military age to local military recruitment centres.

Therefore, it is likely that the new decree entails conscription, however, the morale of newly recruited officers will almost certainly be low with increased chances of desertion, while their fitness quality and lack of combat experience will be well below that of professionals. Moreover, the origin and composition of conscripts – largely from the regions as usually youth in large cities, especially Moscow, avoid conscription – will likely worsen inter-regional relations and domestic stability by exacerbating local grievances. This will likely mildly undermine Russia’s domestic stability over the coming months and throughout 2023. Finally, the announcement also indicates that Russia is indeed preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine, expecting it to last well into 2023.

The extension of closure of Russian airports, especially those closest to the border with Ukraine, is a de facto closure of Russian air space, and likely reflects its intention to keep up air operations, whether for reconnaissance or offensive purposes, in Ukraine. It is possible that the closure of these airports will be extended further.

The provision of new drones from the Victor Pinchuk Foundation for the Ukrainian armed forces will likely lead to better reconnaissance and intelligence gathering capabilities, which will consequently result in improved fire accuracy against Russian targets. These will likely compound the anticipated operational benefits provided by the newly-announced arms package by the US, and most recently the UK. Nonetheless, in the longer term, Ukrainian forces will likely become increasingly reliant on donations from countries outside Europe due to the recent downward trend in European arms support to Ukraine.
Moscow-sponsored hackers’ targeting of Western governments and their private sector partners through Microsoft products will persist amid protracted conflict in the Donbas region. Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear has been utilising a new malware to target government and critical organisations in Europe, the US, and Asia using Microsoft’s operating system, according to industry reports on 25 August. This malware, dubbed MagicWeb, reportedly allows the hackers to “authenticate” themselves as anyone within a compromised network by, amongst other things, targeting the Active Directory Federation Services (ADFS) servers and replacing the legitimate DLL with their version. This is the latest Cozy Bear cyber campaign since the group began targeting NATO member states with cyber espionage-related activities through vulnerabilities in Microsoft’s 365 accounts (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 22 August 2022). Given the timing and geographic focus of these cyber campaigns, there is a realistic possibility that they at least partially aimed at exfiltrating intelligence about Western governments’ policies regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, with the protracted conflict in the Donbas region unlikely to be resolved for the foreseeable future, additional Moscow-sponsored cyber espionage campaigns targeting Western governments and their private sector partners, such as defence technology, are highly likely to emerge in the coming weeks.
25 Aug 24.
• On 24 August, no confirmed ground attacks were reported in the direction of Siversk, though the city and its surrounding areas continued to remain under continuous artillery and air strikes. Pressure on Bakhmut also remains high, with Ukraine’s General Staff reporting that they have repelled Russian forces’ attempt to advance in the direction of Bakhmut, though limited operations southeast of Bakhmut were noted, as well as air and artillery strikes on Bakhmut itself and in its vicinity. Additionally, this morning, 25 August, Ukraine’s General Staff also reported that Kyiv repelled Russian attempts to advance in directions of Slovyansk and Avdiivka. Military progress is set to remain very slow in the Donbas following yesterday’s statement by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russia is slowing down the pace of its military operations in Ukraine.
• Along the southern axes, Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast, but these did not result in any confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian assault operations towards Mykolaivka, and sustained their efforts to pressure Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian forces, meanwhile, persisted launching airstrikes to the northwest of Kherson City, and artillery and missile attacks (including S-300 and Kh-22 missiles) against Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Myoklaiv Oblasts, resulting in damage to civilian buildings.
• Overnight, Ukraine also reported a Russian rocket attack near Kyiv, which struck the Vyshhorod district, with currently no fatalities reported. Rocket attacks also struck Khmelnytskyi in western Ukraine resulting in civilian injuries, but currently no casualties reported according to the Ukrainian media.
• A Russia-appointed head of the State Security Administration of Mykhailivka, in Zaporizhzhia oblast, was killed on 24 August by a car bomb. The incident marks the latest in a series of assassinations of Russia-installed proxies in the occupied territories, reflecting the continued resistance and capability of pro-Ukrainian forces.
• Overall, as anticipated Ukraine’s Independence Day saw an intensification of Russian missile strikes across the country, with Ukrainian Ministry of Defence official stating that Ukraine had been prepared for the developments considering that the entire society has been forced to exist in an “atmosphere of missile terror for six months.” Amongst the deadliest attacks was a strike on a train station in Dnipropetrovsk, which resulted in approximately 25 casualties and dozens of injuries.
• Yesterday, US President Joe Biden officially announced a USD3bn military aid package for Ukraine. The package mainly includes air defence – including counter-UAV – and artillery systems. Among others, the package includes a maximum 245,000 155mm artillery rounds, six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions, unspecified laser-guided rocket systems, and VAMPIRE counter-UAS.
• Russian regions continued their efforts to create volunteer units, with Altai Krai announcing five new units. While some units were designated as ‘battalions’, local media argued the designation exaggerated the actual size of the unit, which may possibly include approximately 100 people. Moreover, the Republic of Tatarstan’s Biznes Online reported that recruitment for such volunteer units declined throughout summer, underlining Russian inability to shore up both additional public support for the war as well as manpower. Regional volunteer recruitment drives are reportedly much higher than in Moscow City, a difference which may lead to inter-regional social tensions and intra-government challenges to not only bolster recruitment to sustain Russian operations in Ukraine, but also to maintain public support for the war.
Political developments
• Today, on 25 August, Russian parliament is due to issue a special statement on Ukraine and “the threat to the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant” (ZNPP). This follows Moscow’s accusations that Kyiv is launching strikes at ZNPP, with Ukraine instead accusing Russia of exploiting the plant and planning a provocation that would justify more aggression. As such, with Russia previously stating that the plant could be shut down, the likelihood of this happening remains heightened as Moscow could make the decision to disconnect the ZNPP from Ukraine’s power grid, thereby effectively reducing electricity supplies to Ukraine. This remains a very likely scenario amid wider efforts to prepare for the annexation of Zaporizhzhia oblast, with the latest US intelligence indicating that “sham referenda” could be announced by the end of the week. For additional analysis on the threat to the ZNPP please see our Situation Update Brief – 18 August.
• As anticipated, yesterday, during Ukraine’s Independence Day, Kyiv registered the highest number of air raid alerts since the start of the invasion in February, with a record 189 air raid notifications announced. However, the threat of major strikes against Kyiv or indeed against the decision making centres did not materialise, however it will nevertheless continue to remain elevated this week, with government employees in Kyiv advised to work from home for the rest of the week. Additionally, a notable uptick in shelling was also reported, with 58 settlements shelled, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. President Zelensky meanwhile vowed to continue the fight and reclaiming all of Ukraine’s territories amid the additional military support from the US, as well the UK, with Boris Johnson arriving in Kyiv yesterday on a surprise visit and announcing a GBP 54 m aid package.
• The UK’s new military aid package includes the delivery of 2,000 drones and anti-tank loitering munitions to Ukraine, although the full list of weapon systems included in the package is not publicly available yet. Of the 2,000 drones, 850 will be Black Hornet nano-unmanned aerial systems (nUASs) which are procured jointly by Norway and the United Kingdom. The two countries are also providing spare parts and training for the use of the nUASs.
Forecast
Yesterday, Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu announced that Moscow will “deliberately” slow down the pace of its military offensive, claiming that the decision was made in order “to avoid casualties among civilians”. Shoigu stressed, however, that the so-called special military operation was going according to plan and that all of Russia’s military aims in Ukraine will be achieved. The statement strongly reflects Russia’s failings in achieving swift operational success in the Donbas, despite refocusing its efforts on the region after failing to take Kyiv at the start of the invasion. The statement regarding the slowing down of operations as being deliberate is also highly likely an attempt to deflect public attention away from Moscow’s shortcomings in Ukraine. Russia’s already slow pace of the offensive in Donetsk was partly slowed down due to the need to redeploy some of its forces to support operations in the south, amid Ukraine’s increasing strikes across the occupied Kherson and Crimea. Cumulatively, the developments furthermore support our assessment that given the slow pace of the operations, the war will protract into the months ahead and into 2023, especially given Shoigu’s reiteration of Russia’s maximalist objectives.
In this respect, it also remains our assessment that Russia is highly likely seeking to absorb the occupied territories into Russia. US President Joe Biden is reportedly due to speak with President Zelensky today about the upcoming “sham referenda”, which US intelligence suggests could be announced as early as the end of the week in the occupied territories. Whilst there is a relatively high chance of the fake referenda being carried out in the days ahead, it should also be noted that previously posited dates have come and gone, meaning that the potential exact date remains unclear. Nevertheless, Russia’s ultimate objective to control these territories remains unaltered, with some form of vote still highly likely to be announced by the end of the year.
Russia: Ruble stabilises despite sanctions, though long term economic outlook will be undermined. The latest data shows that the Russian ruble has stabilised following the invasion of Ukraine. This comes despite an unprecedented number of western sanctions targeting much of Russia’s banking system, its oligarchs and its foreign reserves. To counter the sanctions’ impact, Moscow has exploited its leverage over energy flows. The Kremlin introduced a series of policies, such as demanding that payments for its gas be made in rubles. The mitigating measures have therefore resulted in Russia’s currency rising to a seven-year high against the USD, with soaring energy prices boosting the country’s revenue stream and mitigating the impact of sanctions in the short term. Nevertheless, the combination of a steep population decline and a complete break in diplomatic and business relations with the West will inevitably undermine Russia’s economic potential in the long term. However, its economic co-operation with and pivot towards Asian markets will continue gathering momentum.
23 Aug 24.
Military and security developments
• No notable military progress was observed on 23 August, with no confirmed ground attacks reported in the direction of Siversk. However, the city and its surrounding areas remain under continuous artillery strikes. In addition, no ground attacks were conducted in the vicinity of Kharkiv City. Attempts to advance on Bakhmut also continued on 23 August. While Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Kyiv repelled an attempted Russian offensive towards Bakhmut, Russia’s Ministry of Defence claims that its forces have made progress and are advancing on Zaitseve, south-east of Bakhmut. Moreover, the UK Ministry of Defence forecast on 24 August that Russia’s offensive progress in Donetsk is likely to remain minimal due to ‘shortages of munitions, vehicles and personnel’.
• On 23 August, Russian state media alleged that Ukraine launched an attack against the headquarters of the self-proclaimed leadership of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), claiming that the office of the DNR Denis Pushilin was shelled. Pushilin was reportedly unharmed as a result of the alleged attack. The incident is likely to have been a Russian false-flag attack engineered to justify strikes against Ukraine and its decision-making centres. Further such allegations in other occupied territories are highly likely on 24 August.
• Additionally, Ukrainian media claimed that an attack against the Galaktika shopping centre in Donetsk on the morning of 24 August was a false-flag operation by Russian forces. Shells reportedly targeted the shopping centre. There are no confirmed casualties at the time of writing.
• Reporting on 23 August confirmed that Russia is deploying security forces to the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) amid dwindling support for the war, with local residents increasingly unwilling to carry on fighting. The latest reports follow last week’s social media footage allegedly showing members of LNR Battalion 2740 refusing to fight in the neighbouring DNR, with LNR soldiers maintaining that they already achieved victory on 3 July following the fall of Lysychansk and the capture of Luhansk oblast’s borders. As such, the latest reports support our previous assessment that there is insufficient morale among LNR forces to conduct offensives beyond the LNR’s borders. This disillusionment is likely to protract the fighting.
• Along the southern axes, Russia officially claimed yesterday that it has taken control of Blahodatne, located approximately 22 miles (35km) from Mykolaiv City. This follows the Ukrainian General Staff’s confirmation on 22 August that the Russians achieved ‘partial success’ near Blahodatne.
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces claimed to have struck more Russian ammunition depots and a command post in the occupied Kherson oblast. Also in Kherson, the authorities installed by Russia alleged that Ukrainian partisans attempted to assassinate a local official. The development is the latest in a series of such incidents in Kherson in recent months. Additionally, in Belgorod oblast (Russia), reports of a fire at an ammunition depot on 23 August also emerged, with Moscow claiming that the depot caught fire due to ‘hot weather’, necessitating the evacuation of local villagers. Numerous similar reports of fires and explosions in Belgorod and other areas bordering Ukraine have been reported in the last few months; Ukrainian forces have not claimed responsibility for these events.
• Additionally, Ukraine accused Russia of continuing to amass weapons at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Kyiv also alleged that Russia is deliberately seeking to shell ‘ash pits’ at the ZNPP to ‘raise clouds of radioactive dust’, for which Moscow will then likely blame Ukraine. A spokesperson for the Odesa oblast’s administration released a video on social media showing a Russian ammunition depot allegedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast. Similarly, Ukrainian Air Force officials stated that its forces destroyed five Russian drones and one Ka-52 helicopter on 23 August.
• Missile strikes continued to target Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on 23 August. Similar strikes are highly likely to continue in the next 24-48 hours.
Political developments
• The US will announce in the coming hours a new USD 3 bn military aid package to Ukraine. The announcement will coincide with Ukraine’s Independence Day, marking the largest aid package since the start of the invasion. It underlines the continuous commitment from Washington DC in backing Ukraine.
• The risk of internal provocations in Ukraine on 24 August are higher-than-usual. Ukraine’s security services (SBU) announced that they thwarted Russian security service plans to organise staged protests aimed at aggravating socio-political tensions across Ukraine, including in Kyiv, on 24 August. The SBU also warned of the high risk of Russian misinformation and propaganda campaigns, particularly in the coming week. The SBU claims these campaigns are aimed at condemning and discrediting Ukraine’s military command. We continue to assess that genuine anti-government protests in Ukraine are highly unlikely considering there is strong public support for the country’s military policy; continued Russian attacks will simply galvanise this support and sense of unity.
• In a strong show of solidarity, Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, visited Kyiv yesterday, stating that the war in Ukraine has made the restoration of normal relations with Russia impossible. He also stated that Crimea is part of Ukraine and called for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to be dismantled. The developments are reflective of the traditionally much more hawkish stance Poland has taken against Russia, as well as its open support for Ukraine throughout the invasion. Although direct Russian retaliation is still highly unlikely, Moscow is highly likely to keep up the pressure with regard to energy flows. A heightened threat of cyber attacks and increased misinformation campaigns in Poland and the Baltic states are also highly likely.
• For more strategic analysis and escalation outcomes to the current conflict in Ukraine, see our Scenario Planning and Projections report.
Forecast
As anticipated, President Zelensky stated on 23 August that Ukraine will not agree to any proposal that would envisage freezing the current frontlines in order to ‘calm’ Moscow. Additionally, Zelensky promised ‘a powerful response’ should Russia disproportionately escalate its strikes against Ukraine. Furthermore, in line with previous statements in recent months, Zelensky reiterated that Kyiv is fully committed to reclaiming Crimea, stating that ‘it started with Crimea and it will end in Crimea’. He stated that Kyiv intends to return Crimea to Ukraine ‘in any way we decide’. Moreover, Kyiv once again stated that the Crimea bridge is a legitimate military target and that it therefore ‘must be destroyed’, adding that the only circumstances under which Ukraine would not strike the bridge would involve Putin withdrawing ‘troops from Crimea across this bridge’. These statements reflect an increasingly escalatory and emboldened rhetoric from Kyiv amid intensified military activity in Crimea itself.
In the run-up to Independence Day, Ukrainian forces have launched a number of high profile, and seemingly highly effective, raids and attacks across the occupied Crimea, including against Saki airbase and other notable targets. These attacks, which include the recent car bomb attack that killed Darya Dugina, are likely to have embarrassed the Kremlin, pressurising Moscow to respond with a demonstration of overwhelming firepower in order to claim revenge. President Zelensky’s highly symbolic speech focusing on retaking Crimea and his aspirations to expand offensive military operations in the south are highly likely to aggravate Russia. All major cities across Ukraine therefore remain potential targets for a demonstration of Russian force in the coming hours and days.
A major intensification and escalation is particularly likely if Ukrainian forces attempt a strike against the Crimea bridge. This remains a realistic possibility given the most recent statements from Kyiv. Desrtoying the bridge would significantly increase the likelihood of Russian missiles striking ‘decision-making centres’ and political targets in central Kyiv. Vengeful Russian strikes would possibly target the Verkhovna Rada, the Council of Ministers, the presidential palace and the SBU headquarters.
Moldova: Bomb scares underline a moderate risk of internal destabilisation.
On 24 August, police in Chisinau received reports of alleged landmines in a variety of locations including in the airport and around the Parliament Building. Both locations are currently being swept for the alleged explosives, although false alarms regarding landmines have become a regular occurrence in Moldova since July. Earlier this month, Moldova’s police investigated several bomb threats targeting the nation’s supreme court and Chisinau airport, in both instances the IP addresses were traced back to Belarus and Russia. Whilst armed escalation is highly unlikely at present, heightened concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine will likely drive further bomb scares in the coming weeks, as Russian and pro-Russian forces are likely to continue maintaining a degree of pressure on Moldova internally.
Ukraine: Turkish support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity bid will likely increase tensions with Moscow. On 23 August, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared his country’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity by rejecting the illegal annexation of Crimea. Erdogan also declared that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is essentially a requirement of international law. Erdogan’s comments will likely strain Turkey’s relationship with Moscow and may indicate a hardening of Turkey’s position away from its previously ambivalent stance. This comes after President Zelensky earlier this week vowed to restore Ukrainian rule in Russia-annexed Crimea, with the nation celebrating Independence Day today (24 August). There is a heightened threat of attacks and provocation surrounding the celebrations, with Kyiv fearing renewed fighting and rocket attacks.
23 Aug 22.
Cyber Update
• Pro-Russia groups’ activity maintained pace during this monitoring period, with pro-Moscow hacktivists launching disruptive cyber attacks and state-linked actors continuing their intelligence gathering operations. Given Moscow’s limited time, resources, and dwindling revenue streams, there is a high likelihood that these two sides will maintain this division of labour for the foreseeable future to continue providing support to Russia’s conventional military operations in Ukraine’s contested Donbas region. Targets of strategic value to Russia, such as Ukrainian or NATO government agencies and their private sector partners, will be the most at-risk for this cyber activity.
• In contrast, publicly-disclosed cyber campaigns launched by pro-Ukraine cyber threat actors (such as Anonymous) continued to decline during this monitoring period. While it is unclear whether this reduction in activity is due to declining interest and/or improved Russian cyber defences, pro-Kyiv cyber attacks against Russia’s critical infrastructure and Russia-based organisations are highly likely to persist. Such cyber attacks will likely take the form of DDoS, defacement, and/or data leaks.
Pro-Russia disruptive cyber campaigns continue; DDoS and other low-level cyber activities remain high-priority threats to Western businesses
• On 21 August, industry reports claimed that Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear was targeting NATO member states with cyber espionage-related activities. These cyber attacks are reportedly employing both highly sophisticated and unsophisticated tactics, such as turning off Microsoft’s Purview Audit security features and engaging in brute force attacks, to compromise their victims’ Microsoft 365 accounts. These cyber attacks are aimed at organisations involved in NATO countries’ foreign policies, such as government agencies, defence firms, think tanks, and intelligence companies.
• On 18 August, the Estonian government claimed that they were targeted by the “most extensive cyber attack it has faced since 2007”. This incident was reportedly a Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack that targeted both “public institutions and the private sector”. However, Estonia’s Undersecretary for Digital Transformation Luukas Ilves claimed that the DDoS attack was blocked, and the targeted websites remain operational. The pro-Russian hacktivist group Killnet has claimed responsibility for this incident. This is the latest Killnet DDoS attack targeted against the Estonian government since they subjected the government’s website to cyber attacks earlier in 2022 (see Sibylline Cyber Monthly – July 2022). Killnet claimed their DDoS activity has impacted over 200 financial services in Estonia, however, these claims have been rejected by Estonia.
• On 17 August, industry reports claimed that the pro-Russian hacktivist group the People’s Cyber Army launched a cyber attack against Ukraine’s state nuclear power company Energoatom. This threat actor reportedly launched a Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack against the power company’s website, taking it offline for an estimated three hours. This cyber attack is indicative of Moscow-linked hackers’ continued targeting of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure operators to help the Russian military gain advantages in the highly contested Donbas region by pulling Kyiv’s focus and resources elsewhere. With the increasing threat of shelling at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station heightening concerns about nuclear safety, further cyber campaigns targeted at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, especially nuclear power sites, are highly likely over the coming weeks.
Pro-Ukraine cyber campaigns are limited; disrupting and countering Russia’s disinformation/misinformation remained the primary focus during this monitoring period
• On 20 August, a Twitter account purporting to represent the Anonymous hacktivist collective claimed that the group hacked television stations in Russian-occupied Crimea. Much like previous cyber campaigns that targeted pro-Russian media outlets, these cyber attacks allegedly replaced their broadcast with pro-Ukraine content. If officially confirmed, this is the latest pro-Kyiv cyber attack aimed at countering the Russian government’s misinformation/disinformation operations since Anonymous claimed that the group hacked Russian streaming services and TV news channels and broadcasted ‘footage of the destruction of Russian military assets’ (see Sibylline Weekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 16 August 2022).
FORECAST
Publicly disclosed pro-Moscow cyber campaigns continued to maintain pace during this monitoring period. Much like in previous weeks, the cyber attacks launched by these pro-Moscow hackers can be divided into two categories, low-level disruptive cyber campaigns launched by pro-Russian hacktivists and cyber espionage-related campaigns launched by Russia’s state-sponsored threat actors. With regards to the hacktivist groups, the cyber attacks launched by Killnet against the Estonian government’s website underscores pro-Russian hacktivists’ continued reliance on low-level cyber attacks to target Western countries that engage in actions perceived to be against the Russian government. Indeed, these DDoS attacks emerged after the Estonian government approved a new military aid package for Ukraine that included mortars, anti-tank weapons, and a field hospital. Further politically motivated cyber attacks are highly likely to emerge in the coming six months, especially with Western nation-states’ financial and military aid to Ukraine set to persist during that time period. Given these hacktivists’ low technical capabilities, these cyber attacks will most likely take the form of DDoS, defacement, or data leaks. Organisations are advised to consult ‘quick guide’ checklists provided by Western governments’ cyber security agencies – such as the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) – to minimise their exposure to these cyber threats.
Meanwhile, Russia’s state-linked cyber threat actors have remained focused on gathering intelligence related to its invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the Cozy Bear’s targeting of organisations involved in NATO member states’ foreign policy institutions underscores that not only Ukraine-based entities are at risk of being targeted by Russian state-linked cyber attacks but also those located in the West providing financial or military aid to the Ukrainian government. Moreover, this incident is indicative of Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center’s (MSTIC) findings that Russian state-linked hackers have increasingly targeted Western governments supporting Ukraine, especially in NATO countries, with cyber activity aimed at either gathering critical intelligence and/or aiding its conventional military activities in Ukraine. With the protracted conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region unlikely to be resolved for the foreseeable future, further Russia-backed cyber espionage campaigns are highly likely to be launched in the coming weeks. Government agencies in Ukraine and NATO member states and their private sector partners, including in the defence, telecommunications or IT sectors, will be the most at-risk for this cyber activity.
In contrast, publicly-disclosed pro-Ukraine cyber activity has continued to decline during this monitoring period. It is currently unclear whether this reduction in publicly-disclosed cyber attacks is due to a decline in interest amongst pro-Kyiv hackers and/or an improvement in Russia’s cyber defences. Nevertheless, there is a realistic probability that these pro-Ukraine actors, especially Anonymous-linked groups, will continue to launch politically motivated cyber attacks against critical infrastructure supporting Russia’s government or military operations and/or Russia-based organisations perceived to be propagating pro-Moscow propaganda. Given these groups’ low technical capabilities, these cyber attacks will most likely take the form of either DDoS, defacement, and/or data leaks.
Military and security developments
• Military progress remained very limited, with no major battlefield gains reported on 22 August. As in previous days, Ukrainian General staff reported that Russian forces continued conducting limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum and southeast of Siversk, with artillery strikes on and near Siversk also reported yesterday.
• Pressure on Bakhmut remains high with Russian forces reportedly attempting to advance on Bakhmut from Pokrovske village to its east, as well as conducting air and artillery strikes near the city and the surrounding area. Russian ground attacks also continued in the vicinity of Donetsk City, and continued advancing on Adviikva, Pisky, and Marinka. Russian ammunition depots here have been targeted, and fighting is reportedly ongoing. Ground attacks were also conducted near Novomykhailivka, Makarivka, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Along the southern axes, Russian forces carried out several attacks, with Ukraine’s General Staff confirming that the Russians achieved “partial success” near Blahodatne, approximately 35 km from Mykolaiv City, on 22 August. According to the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command, four Russian S-300 missiles struck Mykolaiv City between the night of 21-22 August.
• According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces around Kharkiv City are attempting to improve their tactical positions. Moreover, Russian forces continued conducting airstrikes, artillery strikes, and UAV reconnaissance flights near Kharkiv City, namely on Pytomnyk, Staryi Saltiv, and Verkhnii Saltiv.
• Additionally, both sides reported shelling in Enerhodar, near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), which allegedly damaged water lines around a thermal plant in Enerhodar. Ukrainian media reports also noted that more explosions were heard in occupied Kherson on the evening of 22 August, though unconfirmed social media footage suggested that it was caused by a Russian anti-air missile after it failed mid-flight.
• Missile strikes on Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts have also been noted on 22 August, and are likely to continue in the lead up to Ukraine’s Independence Day tomorrow, 24 August.
• In the occupied Crimea more explosions were reported in Sevastopol on 22 August on social media, though the reports are unconfirmed. However, if confirmed, the development is highly on trend and in line with a series of explosions in Crimea in recent weeks, which demonstrates Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian forces’ capabilities and willingness to attack Russian positions inside Crimea.
• The Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that, according to an announcement by Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik, the LNR will start the first phase of a two-phase “general mobilisation” plan on 1 September. The first phase will include mobilising Ukrainian citizens that both match military requirements and received Russian passports. The GUR claims that the second phase, the date for which remains unknown, will involve the mobilisation of adult males aged 18-65. Meanwhile, the recruitment and creation of Russian volunteer units continues. For example, on 22 August, Prymorsky Krai announced the formation of the ‘Arsenievskiy’ Volunteer Battalion. Composed of 140 out of an originally planned 280 recruits aged 18-60, the Battalion will evacuate, repair, refurbish, and return damaged military equipment to the frontlines.
• Lastly, according to an interview by RBK Ukraine with Ukrainian Deputy Chief of Staff Andrii Sybiha on 23 August, Ukraine will receive unspecified ‘Western’ anti-aircraft and missile defence systems in autumn.
Political developments
• As anticipated, following the high-profile car bomb attack over the weekend, which resulted in the death of Daria Dugina, daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, Russia’s FSB security services claimed on 21 August that Ukrainian special services were behind the attack. More specifically they alleged that a Ukrainian female, with ties to the Azov regiment, was responsible for the attack and has since fled to Estonia without being detected by Russia’s security services. President Putin has also commented on the deadly car blast, calling the event a “vile, cruel crime”. Moreover, as anticipated, Dugina’s father, who was likely the intended target of the attack, called for Russian “victory” following her death, compounding tensions ahead of 24 August. Meanwhile, Kyiv has denied any involvement in the attack, and its capacity to conduct such a mission near Moscow is highly questionable. Moreover, the speed with which Kyiv has been blamed for the attack aligns with our assessment that the more likely scenario is that the event was orchestrated from within Russia and intended to drum up further support for the war, justifying escalation and revenge strikes in the coming days.
• The Irish embassy re-opened in Kyiv for the first time since the 24 February invasion in a further effort to show solidarity with Ukraine ahead of the 24 August Independence Day and the anticipated intensification of strikes across Ukraine, including in and/or around Kyiv. Additionally, Polish President Andrej Duda has arrived in Kyiv today 23 August, also underlining Warsaw’s enduring support for Ukraine. Whilst Russia has not threatened to target foreign entities, such as embassies, Dugin’s supporters and other ultra-nationalist forces have called for strikes against decision making centres in Kyiv, elevating the threat of collateral damage should Moscow launch retaliatory strikes on the capital.
• In Albania, two Russian nationals and a Ukrainian were arrested on 20 August after they allegedly tried to enter the Gramsh military plant, injuring two military officers. According to the Albanian Ministry of Defence, the three individuals were taking photographs of the military plant, which is used as a weapons storage and disassembling facility. The suspects had reportedly entered Albania as tourists, and are being charged with two counts of espionage. A similar incident followed on Sunday, 21 August when four Czech nationals tried to enter a defunct military facility in Polican. The four suspects were arrested. Of note, foreign tourists have in the past been able to enter the Polican facility, therefore, it is yet unclear if the case of the four Czech nationals is linked in any way to the previous incident. The arrest of the Russian and a Ukrainian nationals will likely shift more attention to the debate about banning Russian tourists in Europe, though it is highly unlikely that the European Union will introduce a blanket visa ban for Russian nationals. Nevertheless, the incidents highlight elevated Russian espionage activity across Europe, with government and military facilities at the highest risk of being targeted.
Forecast
In the lead up to Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24 August, President Zelensky held a major meeting yesterday evening with top representatives of Ukraine’s defence and security sector to discuss the situation on the frontlines and in large cities. Kyiv has reiterated that the threat of Russian attacks is very high, something that we assess has likely been exacerbated by Russia’s allegations yesterday that Ukraine is responsible for the death of Daria Dugina. Meanwhile, today, the head of Ukraine’s security and defence council Oleksiy Danilov also alleged that following Dugina’s death, FSB-orchestrated attacks inside Russia involving mass civilian casualties are likely, in order to mobilise support for the war; however, these claims cannot be verified and should be taken with a degree of caution.
Security measures including curfews, bans on gatherings, work from home advice, have been implemented in Kyiv and other major cities across Ukraine this week. Moreover, the US State Department has issued a warning yesterday urging all US citizens currently in Ukraine to leave immediately. According to the latest US intelligence, which supports our standing assessment over the last few weeks, there is a high likelihood of Russia launching strikes, not just against military targets, but also against civilian infrastructure and government buildings across Ukraine. Additionally, the likelihood of cyber attacks is also heightened, with the State Service for Special Communication and Information Protection warning on 22 August that it anticipates an intensification of attacks by Russian hackers on Independence Day, with government, military, and critical infrastructure likely to be the main targets of potential attacks.
Ukraine: US reaffirms high threat of Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure on 24 August. On 23 August, the US State Department urged its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately. Washington DC warned of increased Russian strikes against Ukrainian government buildings and civilian infrastructure. The announcement comes after the US intelligence community reportedly declassified the information on 22 August. The development follows Russia’s claims that Ukraine planted the car bomb which killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin. The US statement supports our assessment that Russian attacks are likely to take place on 24 August across Ukraine, and that they will target Kyiv in particular. Certain security measures have already been implemented in the capital, including curfews, a ban on gatherings and requests for government employees to work from home.
Ukraine: US reaffirms high threat of Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure on 24 August. On 23 August, the US State Department urged its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately. Washington DC warned of increased Russian strikes against Ukrainian government buildings and civilian infrastructure. The announcement comes after the US intelligence community reportedly declassified the information on 22 August. The development follows Russia’s claims that Ukraine planted the car bomb which killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin. The US statement supports our assessment that Russian attacks are likely to take place on 24 August across Ukraine, and that they will target Kyiv in particular. Certain security measures have already been implemented in the capital, including curfews, a ban on gatherings and requests for government employees to work from home.
22 Aug 22.
• No major battlefield gains have been observed over the weekend, with Ukrainian General staff reporting that Russian forces continued to launch failed assaults between 20-21 August southwest of Izyum and on Siversk form the southeast. No additional territorial gains have therefore been reported, but as has been the case in recent weeks, operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk city have been the focus of Russian efforts and currently remain under the most pressure.
• Along the southern axes, Russian operations remain focused on building defences in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in anticipation of any potential Ukrainian counterattack. Meanwhile, allegations of shelling around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant continued over the weekend and on 22 August, though on 21 August, Energoatom confirmed that the plant is currently operating, but highlighted the enduring risk of radiation leaks.
• Additionally, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian forces have reportedly continued to strike at key Russian targets such as ammunition depots, with such strikes likely to only continue in the lead up to Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24 August.
• Furthermore, on 21 August, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Russia transferred certain air defence systems to Belarus, stating that “there is an ongoing threat of enemy missile and air strikes from the territory and the airspace of Belarus”. The statements follow last week’s reports of Russia flying in increasing numbers of missiles into Belarus to build reserves there, likely to support an anticipated escalation ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day. The reports indicate that Russia is prioritising air defence missile shipments to Belarus, including for S-300/S-400 systems. S-300 missiles in particular have been used to attack ground targets in recent months, but these are primarily defensive systems. There is a realistic possibility that Russian aircraft will be deployed to launch airstrikes against northern Ukraine, with the strengthened air umbrella likely aimed at protecting their aircraft as much as possible. However, Russian aircraft activity would likely remain limited due to Russia’s diminished ability to restore and repair aircraft as a result of Western sanctions, including the banning of exports of aviation equipment. Regardless, Belarus is highly likely to be the staging ground for a large number of ballistic, cruise and potentially hypersonic missile strikes over northern Ukraine in the coming weeks.
• In the occupied Crimea, in the morning on 21 August, explosions were once again reported in Sevastopol, after a drone reportedly struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Additionally, reports of Russian troops shooting anti-aircraft rounds at unnamed targets in western Crimea and social media footage suggesting that Russian forces were likely shooting at drones or aircraft around Sevastopol, all underline the recent intensification of activity across the occupied peninsula. Moreover, the events over the weekend follow last week’s reports of explosions near the Belbek airbase, just north of Sevastopol, and the attack against the Saki airbase, with both Saki and Belbek being major military targets for Ukrainian forces.
• As such, the continued activity inside Crimea, if confirmed to be Ukrainian, would underline Ukraine’s growing capabilities and willingness to probe and attack Russian positions right across the peninsula, and highlights the growing likelihood of strikes against the Crimea bridge. This intensified activity across the peninsula, whether by Ukrainian attacks, special forces, or partisan activity, does not mean that Russia is losing its hold over Crimea. However, the developments are putting additional pressure on the Kremlin and highlight Moscow’s shortcomings in the war, particularly as the strikes are now targeting territory that Moscow considers to be part of Russia itself.
• To that end, the increased attacks in Crimea itself are already driving many individuals living there to leave for Russia, with unconfirmed media reports and social media footage showing traffic jams out of Crimea, as public concerns over the apparently deteriorating security situation there rise. This is likely to increase public discontent and attract further scrutiny and highlight Russia’s failures in the war as it struggles to prevent attacks within Crimea.
• Meanwhile, in Russia itself, the most notable development over the weekend was the killing of Daria Dugina, daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, in a car bomb attack. Dugin, who is often credited in the media as being “Putin’s brain” and influencing his decision to invade Ukraine, is believed to have been the intended target of the attack, though Dugina also shared and propagated his ideology, which, amongst many other things, denies that Ukraine should exist as a sovereign state and has openly called for the elimination of Ukrainians. Following the attack, Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of Ukraine’s President’s Office, denied that Ukraine was in any way involved in the incident, alleging instead that the event was strictly “a manifestation of internal political struggles in Russia”. Predictably, however, the attack immediately prompted various propaganda voices in Russia to call for strikes on “decision-making centres” in Kyiv, and is set to become yet another flashpoint ahead of 24 August, with Dugin also likely to increase his calls for a wider war.
• Lastly, the car bomb attack has subsequently led to the tightening of security measures in Kyiv, as worries have intensified over potential revenge strikes from Russia. To that end, on 21 August, all government quarter employees in Kyiv have reportedly been advised to work from home for the duration of the week, as the likelihood of Russian strikes against Kyiv is higher-than-usual. Additionally, all mass events are banned in Kyiv this week between 22-25 August. Similarly, coupled with the upcoming Independence Day, authorities in Kharkiv have announced an introduction of a 36-hour curfew from 1900 hrs (local time) on 23 August, with individuals also advised against traveling to the city, which has continuously been a site of heavy Russian strikes. Residents of other regions that have been disproportionately hit by Russia such as Mykolaiv have also been advised to work remotely and warned against gathering in groups, in anticipation of potential attacks on 24 August.
Political developments
• On 19 August, Gazprom announced that between 31 August and 2 September gas deliveries to Germany will be completely halted due to a scheduled maintenance procedure. The announcement further increases concerns that Russia will minimise its gas deliveries to Europe ahead of the winter to ensure high energy prices across the region designed to put more pressure on political leadership in Europe over its support of Ukraine. The further halting of Russian gas deliveries undermines European efforts to fill up gas storages, increasing the possibility of business disruptions as companies already struggle to maintain production levels amid soaring energy prices.
• Following a call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 19 August, Moscow tentatively agreed to a safety mission by experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia. The mission could reportedly be deployed this week, following further coordination between Paris, Moscow, and the IAEA. As part of the mission, a temporary ceasefire would be required, however, the prospects of such talks succeeding are highly uncertain meaning that the mission is likely to be delayed, with Moscow also likely to backtrack on its promises to facilitate the mission.
• In line with our previous assessments, prospects for a diplomatic solution to the war are minimal, with Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations and top diplomat Gennady Gatilov stating that he does “not see any possibility for diplomatic contacts”, adding that the longer the “conflict goes on, the more difficult it will be to have a diplomatic solution.” The statements are consistent with our prediction that despite Kyiv and Moscow reaching an agreement on grain shipments, which have so far been proceeding relatively smoothly despite the intensification of hostilities in the south, prospects of a peace deal in the immediate term are virtually non-existent. In his remarks, Galitov also reiterated that the West is to blame for prolonging the war given the steady supply of weapons to Ukraine, with the statements further indicating that the war is unlikely to reach a decisive end this year.
• According to the latest public opinion polls conducted by the All-Russian Centre of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), the vast majority of Russians (80 percent) reportedly trust President Putin and 77.8 percent approve of his activities. Although Russian public opinion data should be taken with a grain of salt, the results are consistent with other opinion polls by the Levada Centre, underlining that Putin still retains popular support despite the current course of the war. Moreover, the killing of Dugina over the weekend is likely to be used as another tool to rally support within Russia for the war by alleging that Ukrainian forces pose a threat to Russia itself.
Forecast
The car bomb attack, which resulted in the death of Daria Dugina is likely to become just the latest flashpoint ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24 August. There is speculation that the intended target of the attack was Alexander Dugin, the leader of an ultra-nationalist line of thinking in Russia that sees the country as challenging the West and denies Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign state. Dugin has been amongst the key supporters of the concept of “Novorossiya”, was a strong supporter of the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, and has consistently called for the expansion of the war effort against Ukraine.
Notably, Dugin is often referred to in some western media sources as “Putin’s brain”. However, his influence is largely overstated and there is little evidence to suggest that he has any special formal or informal access to Putin. Nevertheless, a combination of his relatively high profile, extreme hardliner view, and relative accessibility, likely made him a more accessible and relatively lower-cost target. Additionally, the attack took place just outside of Moscow, adding to the shock value and is likely to be used to increase hardliner pressure on Moscow over the slow progress of the war. The event has already prompted additional calls from ultra-nationalist and imperialist circles in Russia for revenge, with some indeed highlighting that the attack happened near the capital, notably elevating the risk of revenge assassinations and strikes on Kyiv. This will compound the anticipated trends during Independence Day on 24 August.
Although it is unknown who was behind the attack, Ukrainian forces have previously been accused of carrying out attacks against Russia-installed officials in the occupied Kherson region, including placing explosive devices on their vehicles. However, Ukraine’s potential involvement in the Dugina attack, which would highlight its apparent capability to carry out such attacks in the heart of Russia and therefore remains highly uncertain, would pose a major concern for Russian elites, if confirmed. Additionally, Dugin’s lack of actual political influence arguably makes him a relatively odd target for Ukraine, considering that their efforts would be better placed on more high-value targets. However, following the attack, the state-sponsored news agency Tass reported that there were no security checks at the entrance to the parking lot where Dugin’s car was parked, underlining the fact that this could have feasibly made Dugin a more accessible target – including potentially for the Ukrainians – as opposed to more senior hawkish Russian officials with better security.
Notably, a former Russian MP, Ilya Ponomarev, stated on 21 August that a Russian partisan group, National Republican Army (NRA), was behind the car bomb attack, alleging that the underground group is committed to overthrowing Putin’s regime. NRA have also claimed responsibility for the incident. However, Ponomarev’s claims should be taken with a degree of caution given that he is known for his anti-Kremlin views and that it is beneficial for the group to also make such claims in order to appear stronger than they actually are. However, should NRA be responsible, this would suggest that the tensions inside Russia are mounting, despite the current relative absence of obvious cracks or notable instability domestically.
Additionally, it is also plausible and likely that the attack was designed by the security services, either because the killing of someone with such hardliner views would be very symbolic and could be used as a pretext for escalation in Ukraine, or because Dugin/Dugina may have been growing unpopular and increased the risk of backlash given Russia’s poor progress on the battlefield and continued strikes against Crimea. Notably, Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Maria Zakharova did not immediately ascribe blame to Kyiv, stating that Moscow is “waiting for the results of the investigation”, indicating that the Kremlin is carefully considering its next steps.
Lastly, regardless of who is responsible for the Dugina attack, the event only further reinforces the tensions ahead of 24 August and increases the likelihood of retaliatory attacks across Ukraine. To that end, President Zelensky warned Ukrainians to be extremely vigilant, cautioning that “this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, particularly vicious”, which, as noted throughout our reporting, is a high risk given the very symbolic nature of the upcoming date and the most recent developments.
Russia: Prospects of peace deal are low with fatal Dugina attack likely to increase strikes against Ukraine. On 21 August, Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations (UN), cited western arm supplies to Ukraine as a significant barrier to a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine, ruling out a peace agreement to resolve it. The announcement has undermined hopes that the space for talks might be increasing after the recent deal brokered by the UN and Turkey to allow shipments of grain to leave the Black Sea Port of Odessa. On the same day a car bomb on the outskirts of Moscow killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of nationalist Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, prompting claims the attack was committed by Ukrainian special forces. Dugina’s death will likely increase calls for a wider war from Russian hardliners. The incident could potentially prompt retaliatory missile strikes against Ukrainian cities elevating already rising threats to civilians in Ukraine ahead of the upcoming Ukrainian Independence Day on 24 August.
Albania: Arrest of Russian and Ukrainian citizens trying to enter military facility underline increasing espionage threat. On the evening of 20 August, two Russians and a Ukrainian injured two military officers while attempting to enter the Gramsh Military Plant, according to the Albanian Ministry of Defence. The three people trying to enter the facility were detained and are being investigated for suspected espionage. According to the Ministry of Defence, the plant is now being used for manufacturing, although did not provide more details on the military equipment being produced. The incident highlights the elevated threat of Russian espionage activity across Europe, including in the cyber sphere, significantly elevating threats to businesses with government or military contracts with NATO member states in strategic sectors such as defence and intelligence. Such operations will increase the likelihood that sensitive company or client information is leaked, which could pose notable regulatory and reputational concerns.
Cyber Update
Russia: Moscow-linked hackers’ intelligence gathering attacks against NATO countries will support Russia in its protracted conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Russian state-linked hacking group Cozy Bear is targeting NATO member states with cyber espionage-related activities. These cyber attacks are reportedly employing both highly sophisticated and unsophisticated tactics, such as turning off Microsoft’s Purview Audit security features and engaging in brute force attacks, to compromise their victims’ Microsoft 365 accounts. These cyber attacks are aimed at organisations involved in NATO countries’ foreign policy, such as government agencies, defence firms, think tanks, and intelligence companies. This cyber espionage campaign reflects Microsoft’s June report which claimed that Russian state-linked hackers have increasingly targeted Western governments supporting Ukraine, especially NATO countries, with cyber attacks to aid Russia’s conventional military activities in Ukraine (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 23 June 2022). With Russia and Ukraine’s protracted conflict in the Donbas region set to persist, there is a realistic probability that further cyber attacks will be launched in the coming six months. Entities of strategic value to Moscow, such as NATO member states, Western defence firms, and Russia-focused think tanks, will be the most at-risk for these cyber attacks. (Source: Sibylline)

25 Aug 22. ‘Vampire’ to transform Ukraine pickups into deadly missile launchers. The U.S. is sending Ukraine “Vampire” kits that transform pickup trucks and other non-tactical vehicles into highly portable missile launchers. As part of a $3bn package for Ukraine that the Pentagon announced Wednesday, the Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment system is a portable kit that can be installed on most vehicles with a cargo bed for launching the Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System or other laser-guided munitions.
The L3Harris-made weapon ― a small, four-barreled rocket launcher and sensor ball ― can be mounted in two hours and operated by a single person, the company said. It can be equipped with missiles to hit ground or air targets including unmanned aircraft systems.
“The Vampire system itself is a counter-UAS system, ” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a press briefing Wednesday. “It is a kinetic system that uses small missiles essentially to shoot UAVs out of the sky.”
While the Vampire system isn’t advertised as a counter-drone weapon on L3Harris’ website, Ukraine has used similar munition-style weapons to take down drones throughout its conflict with Russia.
As the Russia conflict crosses the six-month mark, the most recent aid package is aimed at providing sustainable and affordable options to Ukraine. Alongside the Vampire, the Pentagon is also sending Puma drones and a host of ammunition.
“Our VAMPIRE system will provide the Ukrainian people with even more robust capabilities as they continue to defend their country and democracy in Europe,” Melbourne, Fla.-based L3Harris said in a statement to C4ISRNET. “We will continue to offer our steadfast support of their mission.”
Drone warfare has been heavily utilized by both sides in the six-month-old conflict, with many being sourced from countries outside the war.
Kyiv has drawn support from the U.S. and the United Kingdom, both of whom pledged new drones and counter-drone technology to the conflict on Wednesday, Ukraine’s Independence Day. Russia, meanwhile, has looked to Iran to sustain its supply of drones, according to U.S. officials.
The Vampire is part of a larger package in aid to Ukraine, bringing the total amount supplied to the country during the Russia-Ukraine conflict to more than $13.5bn since the start of the Biden administration.
The Biden administration selected the Vampire — a low-cost and easy-to-assemble weapon compared to other counter-drone measures, such as electronic warfare technologies — for a package advertised as providing supplies for Ukraine’s long-term needs.
“We’re trying to be very deliberate about what systems we think makes the most sense for Ukraine to have in that context, and it also matters very much: Can they sustain it? Can they afford it? Because of course billions of dollars of international assistance may not be something 10 years from now or 20 years from now,” Kahl said.
When the Pentagon did not disclose which “Vampire” system they were sending to Ukraine, it fueled to speculation on social media on as to what weapon the Ukrainians were set to receive. L3Harris confirmed evening that the system in question was the rocket equipment.
The rocket launcher isn’t the first weapon nicknamed after the creature of the night to enter the conflict.
Footage published by the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on July 11, shows Ukraine using the Czech Republic’s RM-70 VAMPIR 122mm Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
The Czech system, which is designed by Excalibur Army, looks similar to the the L3Harris’ weapon, with a rocket-launching system as the main feature. Unlike the L3Harris system, the MLRS Vampire uses a large military vehicle rather than a simple pickup truck as its launching platform.
“Ukrainian MLRS Vampire aren’t afraid of sunlight,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said in a Tweet accompanying the video. “They are not afraid of anybody; they’re just doing their job.” (Source: Defense News)

25 Aug 22. Ukraine War Reveals Need for More Anti-Drone Tech, US Army Says. The service’s expectations are built on Middle Eastern experience. That isn’t going to work. Russia’s heavy use of a wide variety of drones against Ukraine has the U.S. Army rethinking its anti-drone plan, service officials said.
Much of the Army’s current thinking is based on the Army’s experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, said Maj. Gen. Sean A. Gainey, who runs the service’s Joint C-UAS Office. In those wars, the United States could deploy very large armed drones virtually anywhere while adversaries such as ISIS were just beginning to use small drones to drop small munitions. So the United States developed and published a plan for dealing with small UAS in January 2021.
“What we’re seeing in Ukraine,” Gainey said, is that “when you scale this capability from a small quadcopter all the way up to a larger group three” —a drone that weighs around 1,300 pounds and flies at 1,800 feet—”and are able to leverage [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] to put other effects of other systems to bear, [it] really shows the importance of having counter UAS at scale, not just at a fixed site.”
The Army is trying to equip at least two divisions with new anti-drone weapons by Sept. 30, he said at an AUSA event on Tuesday. The Defense Department plans to spend $668m on research into new anti-drone tech and $78m on procurement of new technologies for the next fiscal year (starting in September and ending in October, 2023.)
“So we’re not hamstrung from a UAS attack and not being able to defend all the way down to the forward lines,” Gainey said.
Those capabilities can take a variety of forms; the military is already working with hunter drones and laser and microwave guns. And they’re looking to experiment with more as soon as next month at a new tech demonstration, said Gainey. But new experimental capabilities should work with the Army’s Forward Area Air Defense Command and Control, or FAAD C2, software to better coordinate detection and delivery of effects, he said.
Russia has made large and small drones a key feature of its campaign against Ukrainian forces but the war has also shown how drones, in the hands of a poorly-trained or poorly motivated force, can also be a liability. For instance, downed Russian UAVs have produced intelligence gains for Ukraine, as when Ukranians were able to collect information about a Russian base from footage left on the memory card of a captured drone.
According to Sam Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and an adviser at the CNA Corporation, Russian Telegram channels supporting the war are full of advice for drone operators on proper operational security tactics. “Do not launch UAVs from (military) checkpoints or even near them,” reads one post. ”A lot will be visible from above if the UAV is lost or the video/telemetry radio channel is intercepted.” (Source: Defense One)

26 Aug 22. Dutch soldiers arrive in UK to help train Ukrainians. About 90 Dutch personnel will begin training Ukrainian recruits on 29 August, the Dutch Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported on its website on 24 August. The trainers from the Dutch army’s 13th Light Brigade left the Netherlands on 20 August. Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren told parliament on 19 August that the Dutch soldiers would conduct their training mission until the end of November. Since July, UK personnel have been providing Ukrainian volunteer recruits with five weeks of basic training in tactics, weapons handling and marksmanship, battlefield first aid, handling explosives, the law of armed conflict, and dealing with cyber threats. The Dutch trainers will provide training in tactical skills, marksmanship, battlefield first aid, and the law of armed conflict. In addition, a few Dutch staff officers will work with their UK counterparts co-ordinating the training programme. (Source: Janes)

24 Aug 22. US weapons package for Ukraine stresses long-haul commitment
With a new $2.98bn weapons and training package for Ukraine’s military, the Pentagon wants Russian President Vladimir Putin to know it plans to support Kyiv for the long haul.
The Pentagon will buy newly announced air defense systems, counter-drone systems, radars, artillery systems and munitions from industry over months and years ― with Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding and apart from bns in equipment it has sent Ukraine from its stockpiles.
“Vladimir Putin seems to believe that Russia can win the long game, outlasting the Ukrainians in their will to fight and the international community’s will to continue to support Ukraine,” Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a press briefing. “This USAI package is a tangible demonstration that this is yet another Russian miscalculation.”
The package, which marks the single largest tranche since Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine six months ago, includes six more of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems with additional ammunition. Last month, the U.S. committed to two of the systems, developed by Norway’s Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace as well as American company Raytheon Technologies.
Also included are Vampire counter-unmanned aerial systems, more Puma drones and support equipment for ScanEagle drones. The Pentagon did not disclose the manufacturer, but Kahl said the Vampire “is a kinetic system that uses a small missile, essentially, to shoot UAVs out of the sky.”
While both sides are using thousands of drones, with the United States and Russia each signaling more are on the way, the conflict has mostly centered on artillery in recent weeks.
The new package includes up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition; 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition; up to 24 counter-artillery radars; and unnamed laser-guided rocket systems. Politico reported that the U.S. plans to send the M982 Excalibur, which is a laser-guided projectile made by Raytheon.
Funding for training, maintenance and sustainment was also included in the package.
According to Kahl, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the Joint Staff and U.S. European Command have worked with Ukraine’s government to form a plan for what its “future forces” will look like, cognizant of what Ukraine can afford and sustain. The aid is meant to be useful to keep fighting or, after a settlement, deter Russia.
“The capabilities here are really aimed at getting Ukraine what they’re going to need in the medium to long term so it’s not relevant to the fight today, tomorrow or next week. It is relevant to the ability of Ukraine to defend itself and deter further aggression a year from now, two years from now,” Kahl said.
Asked whether Ukraine would be weaned from Russian systems onto NATO-compatible equipment in three years, Kahl said Ukraine could hang onto its many legacy artillery systems. A gradual transition is underway, however, and Ukraine is using western howitzers.
Some 50 countries have provided urgent military aid, but ideally in the long term, Kahl said, “the Ukrainian military of the future will not be rooted in dozens of different systems, but a much smaller number of systems that are easier to sustain and maintain.”
Wednesday’s announcement came as Ukraine readied for intensified Russian attacks to coincide with Ukraine’s Independence Day and the six-month point from the start of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine.
“Over the past six months, Ukrainians have inspired the world with their extraordinary courage and dedication to freedom,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement to announce the package.
“They have stood resolute and strong in the face of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine,” he added. “And today is not only a celebration of the past, but a resounding affirmation that Ukraine proudly remains ― and will remain ― a sovereign and independent nation.”
The previous U.S. aid package to Ukraine, announced Friday, marked the first time Washington had pledged ScanEagle drones, for targeting artillery, as well as 105mm howitzers and anti-tank rounds for the Carl Gustaf rifle.
That tranche also included the AGM-88 high-speed, anti-radiation missile, which will allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian radars in the artillery-focused war. According to Kahl, the HARM system was modified to fire from Ukraine’s Russian-made MiG-29s.
Wednesday’s package is part of the $40 bn in security and economic assistance passed by Congress and signed into law in May. It is the 20th package of military weapons and equipment committed to Ukraine since the war began Feb. 24. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

24 Aug 22. Norway and UK Donate Black Hornets to Ukraine. Norway and Great Britain are joining forces to acquire the Norwegian micro-drone Black Hornet as a donation to Ukraine. The cost will be up to NOK 90 m. The package includes Black Hornet units, spare parts, transportation and training. This will be financed by the British-led fund to which Norway has contributed NOK 400m. Ukrainian authorities have asked for this type of equipment in the fight against the Russian invasion.
The Norwegian-developed drone is a global market leader. It is used in a number of allied countries, including the United States and Great Britain. The drone is used for reconnaissance and target identification. It is easy to operate, robust, difficult to detect and particularly well suited for combat in urban areas, says Norway’s Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.
The micro-drone will be acquired from Teledyne Flir, as a call-off on a framework agreement that The Norwegian Defence Material Agency has. Procurement, training and delivery of the material is done in collaboration with and coordinated by the British authorities.
Close cooperation with the defence industry will be crucial to continued key deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine in the future. This cooperation also ensures that Ukraine has more modern and efficient weapons and systems.
The donation marks that we stand by our commitment to continue supporting Ukraine, but it also entails a new direction for how Western countries support their fight. Until now we and our allies have mostly donated from our own stocks, says Gram.
An anti-drone system will also be purchased for approximately 100 m of the Norwegian funds for the fund. The system chosen is the anti-drone system Nightfighter from British SteelRock Technologies.
SteelRock Nightfighter is a portable system that provides protection against drones through effective jamming. The system is particularly suitable for protecting smaller patrols, artillery positions and other important resources
Norway and the UK remain determined to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine. These cutting-edge drones will help give Ukraine’s troops a vital advantage on the battlefield as they fight to defend their country against Putin’s brutal and unprovoked invasion,,says UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. (Source: UAS VISION)

24 Aug 22. Aid Package Is Proof Putin Can’t ‘Wait Out’ Ukraine, Partners. The $2.98bn package of military capabilities for Ukraine that President Joe Biden announced today is meant to demonstrate America’s commitment to the beleaguered nation and prove to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he cannot outlast the determination of Ukraine and the West in opposing Russia’s brutal invasion.
Colin H. Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said the package is meant to build “enduring strength” for Ukraine.
Western aid combined with Ukrainian courage and valor repulsed Russian invaders when they launched the attack on Ukraine in February. Western aid combined with Ukrainian courage prevented Russian invaders from overtaking the country and installing a puppet government.
“Russia’s efforts have not succeeded and will not succeed,” Kahl said during a Pentagon news conference today. “And as we have made clear at every level of this administration, we are committed to sustained security assistance as Ukraine defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We are with Ukraine today and — alongside our allies and partners — we will stick with Ukraine over the long haul.”
Russia has suffered tens of thousands of casualties in its war on Ukraine. They were driven from Kyiv and turned their attention to the eastern part of Ukraine. After some initial gains, Russian forces are bogged down, Kahl said. In Ukraine’s south, Ukrainian soldiers have made progress in taking back territory Russia took in the initial phase of the war.
With failure all around Vladimir Putin still “has not given up on his overall strategic objective of seizing most of Ukraine, toppling the regime, reclaiming Ukraine as part of a new Russian empire,” Kahl said. “What he has done is lengthened his timeline and recognized that he is off-plan.”
Putin’s strategy now is to wait out the Ukrainians, and wait out Ukraine’s allies and partners.
That is why this almost $3bn program is so important. This program directly challenges Putin’s theory. The Ukrainian people are united in opposing the invasion. Partners will continue to supply equipment, training and sustainment to Ukraine.
The aid package was done in close consultation with Ukrainians. “We’re really trying to be very deliberate and disciplined about what type of Ukrainian force matters in the next 12, 24, 36 months under any range of scenarios,” Kahl said. “It could be a scenario in which the war continues. It could be a scenario in which the violence ebbs because there’s an agreement, or because it just dies down a bit. But even in that instance, the Ukrainians are going to need to defend their territory and deter future aggression.” (Source: US DoD)

24 Aug 22. Russian attack kills 22 civilians on Ukraine’s Independence Day, Kyiv officials say.
Summary
• Two strikes on small eastern town of Chaplyne, official says
• 21 killed at railway station, passenger train set ablaze
• Rockets hit area north of Kyiv, no casualties reported
• Aug. 24 holiday marked 1991 independence from Soviet rule
• Ukraine, U.S. condemn possible Russian trials
KYIV, Aug 25 (Reuters) – A Russian missile attack killed 22 civilians and set a passenger train on fire in eastern Ukraine, officials in Kyiv said, with missile strikes north of the capital as Ukraine marked its Independence Day under heavy shelling.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had warned of the risk of “repugnant Russian provocations” ahead of the 31st anniversary on Wednesday of Ukraine’s independence from Moscow-dominated Soviet rule, and public celebrations were cancelled.
The holiday also coincided with six months since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, touching off Europe’s most devastating conflict since World War Two.
In video remarks to the United Nations Security Council, Zelenskiy said rockets hit a train in the small town of Chaplyne, some 145 km (90 miles) west of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
“Chaplyne is our pain today. As of this moment there are 22 dead,” he said in a later evening video address, adding that Ukraine would hold Russia responsible for all it had done.
Zelenskiy aide Kyrylo Tymoshenko later said Russian forces had shelled Chaplyne twice.
A boy was killed in the first attack when a missile hit his house, and 21 people died later when rockets hit the railway station and set fire to five train carriages, he said in a statement.
The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Russia denies targeting civilians.
“Russia’s missile strike on a train station full of civilians in Ukraine fits a pattern of atrocities. We will continue, together with partners from around the world, to stand with Ukraine and seek accountability for Russian officials,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Twitter.
There were also six explosions during a rocket attack on the Vyshgorod region directly north of Kyiv, but there were no casualties reported, regional official Olexiy Kuleba said.
“Two impacts were recorded. There were no casualties or injuries among civilians. There were no fires or destruction of residential buildings or infrastructure,” Kuleba wrote on the Telegram channel on Thursday morning. “The other explosions heard by the residents of the region were ‘the work’ of our air defences,” he said.
Otherwise, Russia’s military avoided Kyiv on the Ukrainian holiday and targeted frontline towns such as Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Nikopol and Dnipro with artillery attacks, Ukraine presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said.
NO PUBLIC CELEBRATIONS
Separately, Kyiv submitted information to international legal bodies about Russian plans, described by U.N. officials on Tuesday, to put captured Ukrainian fighters from the Azov Regiment on trial in Mariupol, officials said.
The port city fell to Russian forces in April after weeks of intense shelling as they encircled Ukrainian holdouts at the Azovstal steel plant.
Presidential adviser Arestovych said Zelenskiy made clear Kyiv would “never, ever” consider peace negotiations with Moscow if the trials went ahead.
U.S. Secretary of State spokesperson Ned Price said the unlawful process would amount to a “mockery of justice.”
Ukraine declared independence from the disintegrating Soviet Union in August 1991, and its population voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum that December.
Celebrations of the Aug. 24 public holiday were cancelled, but many Ukrainians marked the occasion by wearing embroidered shirts typical of the national dress.
Air raid sirens blared at least seven times in the capital Kyiv during the day, though there were no attacks.
Zelenskiy and his wife, Olena Zelenska, joined religious leaders for a service in Kyiv’s 11th-century St. Sophia cathedral and laid flowers at a memorial to fallen soldiers.
The 44-year-old leader said Ukraine would recapture Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.
MISSILE STRIKES FAR FROM FRONT LINES
Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian drone in the Vinnytsia region while Russian missiles landed in the Khmelnytskyi area, regional authorities said, both west of Kyiv and hundreds of kilometres from front lines.
No damage or casualties were reported, and Reuters could not verify the accounts.
Russia has repeatedly denied its forces are aiming at civilian targets. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told a meeting in Uzbekistan that Moscow had deliberately slowed what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine to avoid civilian casualties.
At a U.N. Security Council session on Wednesday, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia reiterated Moscow’s rationale for its actions in Ukraine, saying they aimed to “denazify and demilitarise” the country to remove “obvious” security threats to Russia.
Moscow’s stance has been dismissed by Ukraine and the West as a baseless pretext for an imperialist war of conquest.
INCREASING WESTERN SUPPORT
U.S. President Joe Biden announced nearly $3 bn for weapons and equipment for Ukraine in Washington’s “biggest tranche of security assistance to date”. Under Biden, the United States has committed more than $13.5 bn in military aid to Ukraine.
Russia has made few advances in recent months after its troops were repelled from Kyiv in the early weeks of the war.
Ukraine’s top military intelligence official, Kyrylo Budanov, said on Wednesday Russia’s offensive was slowing because of low morale and physical fatigue in its ranks, and Moscow’s “exhausted” resource base.
Russian forces have seized areas of the south, including those on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts and large tracts of the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk that make up the eastern Donbas region.
The war has killed thousands of civilians, forced more than a third of Ukraine’s 41 m people from their homes, left cities in ruins and shaken the global economy, creating shortages of essential foodgrains and pushing up energy prices. (Source: Reuters)

24 Aug 22. Ukraine spy chief says Russian offensive slowing due to fatigue. Ukraine’s top military intelligence official said on Wednesday that Russia’s military offensive was slowing because of moral and physical fatigue in their ranks and Moscow’s “exhausted” resource base.
The remark on television by Defence Intelligence agency chief Kyrylo Budanov was one of the strongest signals by Kyiv that it believes Russia’s offensive power may be waning.
“Russia has rather seriously slowed down the tempo of its assault. The reason for this is the exhaustion of their resource base, as well as a moral and physical fatigue from the fighting,” he said.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said earlier that Moscow had deliberately slowed down its campaign in Ukraine, something he said had been driven by the need to reduce civilian casualties.
Russia rapidly captured swathes of southern Ukraine in the beginning of the invasion launched by Moscow exactly six months ago, but was repelled from around Kyiv and withdrew to focus on the east.
Moscow claimed the capture of the eastern region of Luhansk in early July after a series of long, bloody battles, but it has not claimed any major territorial gains since.
Separately, Budanov said that the Russian air defence systems in the annexed peninsula of Crimea “don’t really work”.
The comment, when asked about a spate of explosions on the peninsula for which Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, was one of the clearest hints yet that Ukraine may be conducting strikes there.
“Crimea … is defended by Russia’s best air defence systems,” he said. “They don’t really work, and they are not able to defend territory captured from Ukraine.” (Source: Reuters)

24 Aug 22. Ukraine rejects ‘cynical’ Independence Day greeting by Belarusian leader. Ukraine rejected on Wednesday what it called a “cynical” Independence Day greeting from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, blasting Minsk for allowing Russia to stage attacks on Ukraine from its territory.
In an unexpected message on his website to mark the 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s independence from the Moscow-dominated Soviet Union, Lukashenko wished Ukrainians “peaceful skies, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a decent life”.
Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has allowed Moscow to use its territory to send thousands of troops into neighbouring Ukraine, as well as to launch missiles from its airspace.
“I am convinced that today’s disputes will not be able to destroy the centuries-old foundation of sincere good neighbourly relations between the peoples of the two countries,” Lukashenko said in the statement.
Senior Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak sharply criticised the statement on Twitter.
“Lukashenko truly believes the world does not notice his participation in crimes against Ukraine,” Podolyak wrote.
“That is why he cynically wishes us a ‘peaceful sky’ while allowing deadly rockets to hit us,” he added.
Lukashenko’s statement stood at odds with some of his recent declarations of support for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.
In July, he described Belarus as “the only country in the world to support Russia in its fight against Nazism”, echoing a claim by Moscow that it is conducting a “special military operation” in Ukraine to cleanse it of ultra-nationalists.
Kyiv and its Western allies say Russia is waging an unprovoked imperial war of aggression.
Lukashenko has previously said that Belarus was “being dragged” into joining the war by Kyiv’s actions, and that Belarusian air defences had shot down Ukrainian missiles. Ukraine denies firing at targets in Belarus. (Source: Reuters)

24 Aug 22. U.S. Announces $2.98bn in Aid to Ukraine. On the 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, the United States is reinforcing its long-term commitment to the nation with $2.98 bn to train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces for their struggle against the Russian invasion.
President Joe Biden announced the aid at the White House. He said the people of the world have been awed and inspired by Ukrainian resistance and pledged the United States will stand with the people of Ukraine as they fight to defend their sovereignty.
The aid “will allow Ukraine to acquire air defense systems, artillery systems and munitions, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and radars to ensure it can continue to defend itself over the long term,” the president said.
It is the largest single U.S. aid package to Ukraine since the Russians invaded the nation six months ago.
The aid “underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term, representing multi-year investments in critical capabilities to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s armed forces as it continues to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a written statement.
This aid is tangible proof of America’s belief in the Ukrainian people. Unlike the presidential drawdown authority that allows the almost immediate delivery to Ukraine of existing stocks of weapons, these funds are part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
This process allows the United States to procure capabilities from industry. “This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term,” Ryder said.
These capabilities include six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and munitions. It also includes up to 245,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition and up to 65,000 rounds of 120 mm mortar ammunition.
The process will also supply up to 24 counter-artillery radars, Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems and support equipment for Scan Eagle unmanned aerial systems.
Russia is using unmanned aerial systems, too, and the aid package will provide VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems to the Ukrainians.
The aid will also provide laser-guided rocket systems.
The money will also be used for training, maintenance and sustainment.
Since January 2021, the United States has committed more than $13.5 bn in security assistance to Ukraine.
The equipment the United States provides has changed as the Russian invasion has continued. Originally, the U.S. provided anti-armor and antiaircraft munitions, including the Javelin and Stinger systems. After the Ukrainian military drove the Russians back from the Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, the nature of the war changed. Russia then attacked the eastern part of Ukraine. The nature of the combat changed, and the fighting required more artillery pieces and crew-served capabilities. (Source: US DoD)

24 Aug 22. Nearly $3bn in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine.
Attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder:
On August 24, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced approximately $3bn in additional security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
This USAI package, which is being announced on Ukraine Independence Day, underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term – representing a multi-year investments to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s Armed Forces as it continues to defend its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression. Unlike Presidential Drawdown (PDA), which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term to ensure Ukraine can continue to defend itself as an independent, sovereign and prosperous state. It is the biggest tranche of security assistance for Ukraine to date. Capabilities include:
• Six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) with additional munitions for NASAMS;
• Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
• Up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition;
• Up to 24 counter-artillery radars;
• Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and support equipment for Scan Eagle UAS systems;
• VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• Laser-guided rocket systems;
• Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
The United States has committed more than $13.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021. In total, the United States has committed more than $15.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014.
Through both PDA and USAI, DoD continues to work with Ukraine to meet both its immediate and longer-term security assistance needs.
Together with our Allies and partners, our unified efforts will help Ukraine continue to be successful today and build the enduring strength of their forces to ensure the continued freedom and independence of the Ukrainian people for years to come. (Source: US DoD)

24 Aug 22. Former Army chief: Russians made ‘every possible military mistake.’ General Lord Richard Dannatt said the Russian military has “failed spectacularly” in their invasion of Ukraine.
It has been six months since the Russian military entered Ukraine and a former Chief of the General Staff has said the Russians have “failed spectacularly”.
“Every possible military mistake that the Russians could have made, they made and a few more that we hadn’t even dreamt of, and that attack from the north failed spectacularly”, Lord Dannatt told Forces News.
Lord Dannatt believes the Russian performance has been a “surprise to any honest military observer from the West”, adding: “I think we all credited them with a greater capability than has been demonstrated.”
However, he did highlight that the West has “involved itself in a lot of major operations in the last 30, 40 years”.
“The coalition, NATO, has got used to planning larger operations, the Russians haven’t done this.
“Their only major intervention was in Afghanistan, and we all know what a disaster that was. Beyond that, they’ve made limited interventions in Syria.
“But in terms of planning a major campaign, exercising proper top-down command and control of an operational nature, they haven’t done it. And they’ve failed spectacularly.”
Wednesday marks six months since Russia invaded on 24 February, and is a day that coincides with the Independence Day of Ukraine – when the Declaration of Independence from the Soviet Union was issued in 1991.
Lord Dannatt believes that the conflict “at some point” will eventually return to negotiations.
He said: “This started with a breakdown in negotiations, there’s now at least a six-month, and a little bit longer, period of warfighting. But as Clausewitz said, ‘war is a continuation of politics by other means’. This will go back to negotiation at some point.” (Source: forces.net)

24 Aug 22. 850 micro-drones part of UK’s latest military aid delivery to Ukraine as Johnson visits Kyiv. The helicopter drones feed back live video and still images and are smaller than a mobile phone. Two thousand ‘state-of-the-art’ drones and loitering munitions are part of the UK’s latest military aid package to Ukraine, it has been announced, as Boris Johnson visited Kyiv.
The Prime Minister, making his final visit to war-torn Ukraine before leaving office, said “the UK will continue to stand with our Ukrainian friends” as he set out a further £54m package of military aid.
Mr Johnson, who has formed a close bond with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Ukraine “can and will win this war” with Russia.
The Government said the most recent delivery will improve the Ukrainian armed forces’ long-range surveillance and defensive targeting ability.
The package includes 850 hand-launched Black Hornet micro-drones, which are specifically designed for use in towns and villages, and are deployed to detect approaching enemy forces.
The helicopter drones, which feed back live video and still images, are smaller than a mobile phone and troops can be trained to fly them in less than 20 minutes.
The support also includes larger drones and loitering weapons, which can be used to target Russian vehicles and installations.
The UK is also preparing to give mine-hunting vehicles to operate off the coast, with Ukrainian personnel being trained in their use in UK waters in the coming weeks.
Mr Johnson said: “For the past six months, the United Kingdom has stood shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, supporting this sovereign country to defend itself from this barbaric and illegal invader.
“Today’s package of support will give the brave and resilient Ukrainian armed forces another boost in capability, allowing them to continue to push back Russian forces and fight for their freedom.”
During his visit to the Ukraine capital, the Prime Minister also received the Order of Liberty, the highest award that can be bestowed on foreign nationals, for the UK’s support for Ukraine. (Source: forces.net)

24 Aug 22. Russian opposition politician arrested over Ukraine war criticism Former mayor of Ekaterinburg faces up to three years in prison on charges of ‘discrediting Russia’s armed forces.’ Russian police have arrested one of the few prominent opposition politicians who is not yet behind bars or in exile for criticising President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Evgeny Roizman, the former mayor of Ekaterinburg, the largest city in Russia’s central Urals region, faces up to three years in prison on charges of “discrediting Russia’s armed forces,” the interior ministry said on Wednesday. The ministry said Roizman had posted “a video whose content discredited the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to defend the country’s interests and citizens” and would be taken to Moscow, according to Interfax. As Roizman was led away by police after they had searched his Ekaterinburg apartment he called out to bystanders that he had been charged with “basically one phrase, the invasion of Ukraine”. Roizman is the best-known of a small group of dissidents who stayed in Russia and denounced Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on social media despite a law that essentially bans all public criticism.
A former MP, anti-drug activist and friend of jailed anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, Roizman was elected mayor of Ekaterinburg in 2013, beating the pro-Kremlin candidate amid a nationwide backlash against Putin’s return to power a year earlier. He stepped down in 2018 in protest over a decision to scrap elections for the mayoral post as the Kremlin grew increasingly intolerant of dissent. Last month he posted a photo of himself on Twitter alongside three other anti-Kremlin activists at a forum in Moscow last year with a caption saying, “I’m the only one still free.” His supporters had expected him to be arrested after two of the other activists in the photo, Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza, were charged earlier this year for criticising the war. But Roizman remained defiant on social media, where he regularly posted profanity-laden responses to state media reports carrying the Kremlin’s narrative about the war. He has already been fined three times in Ekaterinburg’s courts for his social media comments. He was also fined for “not respecting the authorities” in connection with a foul-mouthed post on Twitter in May about Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. In an interview posted on YouTube last week, Roizman had said the pressure was not enough to convince him to leave the country. (Source: FT.com)

23 Aug 22. Slovakia sending Ukraine 30 BMP-1 IFVs, getting Leopard tanks from Germany instead. Armored vehicles Germany Military assistance Slovakia Tank Ukraine War with Russia.
The Minister of Defense of Slovakia, Yaroslav Nad, stated that his country will hand over 30 BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. He said this during the signing of the defense agreement with Germany. The transferred equipment will be from the so-called mobilization stocks. This includes BMP-1s that are no longer used by the Slovak army. When deliveries of armored vehicles to Ukraine will begin is not specified for security reasons, but it may take weeks. The final transfer will be announced only after these vehicles reach Ukraine.
Instead, Slovakia will receive 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany. Along with the equipment, spare parts will arrive, and personnel will be trained. Leopard-2A4 tanks for the Hungarian Armed Forces. July 2020. Photo credits: honvedelem.hu
Slovakia will receive the first Leopard this year, the rest of the tanks are expected next year. The Leopard 2A4 tanks for Slovakia will be upgraded. The Minister of Defense reported that the cost of the equipment that will be transferred to the country is more than €100m. Regarding the transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine, Yaroslav Nad said that such a delivery is not planned.
“At the moment, we are not considering sending T-72 tanks to Ukraine,” Nad stated.
As previously reported, Ukraine received four Zuzana 2 self-propelled guns from Slovakia. The first four artillery systems are already at the disposal of the Ukrainian military. In June, Ukraine and Slovakia signed a contract for the supply of eight 155mm Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers.
Ukraine closely cooperates with Slovakia in providing military assistance. In particular, the country wants to transfer MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine for €300m in the fall.
In addition, Slovak defense enterprises are ready to upgrade and repair Ukrainian equipment.
Also, since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country has repeatedly transferred equipment and ammunition to Ukraine. (Source: https://mil.in.ua/)

24 Aug 22. We will fight ‘until the end’, Zelensky declares on Independence Day.
“We will fight until the end,” President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared in an emotional speech to mark 31 years of Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union on Wednesday.
President Zelensky vowed in his Independence Day address that his country would not be making “any concession or compromise” to Moscow.
“We don’t care what army you have, we only care about our land. We will fight for it until the end,” Zelensky said in the video address, which also marks six months since the invasion began.
He told Ukrainians that the country was reborn when Russia invaded on February 24 and would recapture annexed Crimea and occupied areas in the east.
“A new nation appeared in the world on February 24 at four in the morning. It was not born, but reborn. A nation that did not cry, scream or take fright. One that did not flee. Did not give up. And did not forget,” he said.
President Zelensky added that Ukraine no longer saw the war ending when there was peace, but when Kyiv was actually victorious.
“What for us is the end of the war? We used to say: peace. Now we say: victory,” he said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

24 Aug 22. Defiant Ukraine marks Independence Day six months after invasion.
Summary
• Zelenskiy warns of ‘brutal strikes’ by Russia
• Aug. 24 holiday marks six months since invasion
• U.N. nuclear agency could visit Ukraine plant in days
KYIV, Aug 24 (Reuters) – Ukrainians mark 31 years since they broke free from the Russia-dominated Soviet Union on Wednesday in what is certain to be a day of defiance against the Kremlin’s six-month-old war to subdue the country once again.
Ukraine’s Independence Day falls six months after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion and will be observed with subdued celebrations under the threat of attack from land, air and sea.
Public gatherings are banned in the capital Kyiv and a curfew is in force in the front-line eastern city of Kharkiv, which has weathered months of shelling.
The government laid out the hulks of burnt-out Russian tanks and armoured vehicles like war trophies in central Kyiv in a show of defiance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned of the possibility of “repugnant Russian provocations”.
“We are fighting against the most terrible threat to our statehood and also at a time when we have achieved the greatest level of national unity,” Zelenskiy said in a Tuesday evening address.
Ukraine’s military urged people to take air raid warnings seriously.
“Russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile attacks on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. Do not ignore air raid signals,” the general staff said in a statement on Wednesday.
Zelenskiy told representatives of about 60 countries and international organisations attending a virtual summit on Crimea on Tuesday that Ukraine would drive Russian forces out of the peninsular by any means necessary, without consulting other countries beforehand.
The war has killed thousands of civilians, forced over a third of Ukraine’s 41m people from their homes, left cities in ruins and shaken global markets. It is largely at a standstill with no immediate prospect of peace talks.
In addition to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, Russian forces have expanded control to areas of the south including the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts, and chunks of the eastern Donbas region comprising the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Ukraine’s armed forces have said almost 9,000 military personnel have been killed in the war.
Russia has not publicised its losses but U.S. intelligence estimates 15,000 killed in what Moscow calls a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine. Kyiv says the invasion is an unprovoked act of imperial aggression.
Ukraine broke free of the Soviet Union in August 1991 after a failed putsch in Moscow and an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians voted in a referendum to declare independence.
‘INTENSIVE’ TALKS ON PLANT
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said the U.N. nuclear watchdog hoped to gain access to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine within days.
Both sides have accused the other of firing missiles and artillery dangerously close to the plant, Europe’s biggest, raising fears of a nuclear catastrophe.
“I’m continuing to consult very actively and intensively with all parties,” Grossi said in a statement on Tuesday. “The mission is expected to take place within the next few days if ongoing negotiations succeed.”
Pro-Moscow forces took over the plant soon after the invasion began but Ukrainian technicians are still operating it. The United Nations has called for the area to be demilitarised.
Russia on Tuesday accused Ukraine of attacking the plant with artillery, guided munitions and a drone, drawing a denial from Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya.
“Nobody who is at least conscious can imagine that Ukraine would target a nuclear power plant at tremendous risk of nuclear catastrophe and on its own territory,” Kyslytsya said at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting in New York called by Russia.
Ukraine’s allies offered more military support on Wednesday.
Norway and Britain will jointly supply micro drones worth up to 90 m Norwegian crowns ($9.3 m) to help with reconnaissance and target identification, the Norwegian defence ministry said.
The United States, which has sent $10.6 bn in security assistance to Ukraine, will announce a new package of about $3 bn as early as Wednesday, a U.S. official said.
Advanced U.S. missile systems appear to have helped Ukraine strike deep behind the front lines in recent months, taking out ammunition dumps and command posts.
In the latest mysterious fire at a Russian military facility, Russian officials said ammunition stored in southern Russia near the border with Ukraine spontaneously combusted on Tuesday.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod region, blamed hot weather for the fire, drawing ridicule from Ukraine.
“In a few months we will find out whether Russian ammunition can explode because of the cold,” Ukraine’s defence ministry said on Twitter.
“The five main causes of sudden explosions in Russia are: winter, spring, summer, autumn and smoking.” (Source: Reuters)

23 Aug 22. Slovakia to donate 30 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine -minister. Slovakia will send 30 tracked infantry fighting BVP-1 vehicles to Ukraine as it will receive 15 Leopard tanks from Germany, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Tuesday.
Germany initially opposed providing Kyiv with heavy weaponry to help it defend itself against Russia’s invasion launched on Feb. 24, but then reversed its position and even sent some of its own weapons to Ukraine.
“I am very glad that Slovakia will be able to donate 30 BVP-1 vehicles and get from Germany 15 Leopard 2-A4 tanks,” Nad said after talks with German Defence Ministry State Secretary Benedikt Zimmer in the Slovak capital Bratislava.
Nad said the deal also included ammunition, spare parts and complex training.
Slovakia has already donated to Ukraine an S-300 air defence system, Mi-series military helicopters, self-propelled howitzers, and Grad multiple-rocket launcher rockets.
Bratislava has also hinted it might give to Ukraine its Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, which it plans to ground this month as the Czech Republic and Poland have agreed to patrol Slovak air space. (Source: Reuters)

23 Aug 22. 800 Taiwanese ‘Flying Mortar’ Drones Reportedly Shipped to Ukraine. Revolver 860 developed by DronesVision is probably one of the most interesting drones used by Ukrainians . A large quadcopter is in practice a flying mortar – the drone is equipped with a revolver cartridge that can hold 8 60 mm mortar shells.
It is a weapon with a much greater firepower than improvised “bombs” made of hand grenades or 40-mm rounds for grenade launchers. At the same time, 60mm mortars are a very popular light support weapon. Mortars of this caliber, as produced in Tarnów LMP-2017, were delivered to Ukraine , among others through Poland, and the ammunition for them is cheap and easily available.
The Revolver 860 drone weighs 42 kg and is 1.35 m in diameter. When loaded with eight 60 mm rounds, it can fly up to 20 km with a flight duration in the range of 25-40 minutes.
What distinguishes it from the many drones or equipment used by soldiers, used by the Aerorozvidka organization described by Karolina Modzelewska , is its interesting adaptation to combat tasks.
The Revolver 860 unmanned aerial vehicle is equipped with a revolver cartridge – an 8-position “drum” from which mortars can be released one by one. The Revolver 860 is a new weapon – just a few months ago, the magazine “Stern” described the revolver magazine, indicating a company from the Netherlands as the originator of the solution.
The manufacturer emphasizes that the machine can also be adapted to other types of ammunition, such as heavier 81 or even 120 mm mortar shells, although after such a modification the number of carried loads will probably be much smaller.
Taiwanese aid provided by Poland
The information about the handover of drones by Taiwan is also interesting because Poland was involved in sending them to Ukraine – according to the Oryx website tracking the conflict – Poland was involved. The Polish trace is also indicated by materials in the German media describing the innovative equipment of drones.
Probably a dozen or so volunteers from Taiwan are fighting in the armed forces of Ukraine. The president of Taiwan also made a symbolic gesture by donating his salary to help Ukraine. (Source: UAS VISION/WP Tech)

23 Aug 22. A valuable Russian Auriga-1.2V portable satellite communications station was destroyed by an improvised munition dropped from a Ukrainian COTS UAV. It is used to organize two high-speed satellite channels for secure communication between army command & frontline units. (Source: Ukraine Twitter)

22 Aug 22. Turkey sends 50 mine-resistant vehicles to Ukraine, with more expected. The Turkish government has delivered 50 used mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles to the Ukrainian military, government and industry sources told Defense News.
The delivery of the Kirpi vehicles was the result of a government agreement, rather than a deal between Ukraine and BMC, which makes the Kirpi, according to a government official. Ukraine is currently fighting off a Russian invasion, which began Feb. 24.
“Under the deal, the Turkish Ministry of National Defence delivered an initial batch of 50 Kirpis to Ukraine,” the government source told Defense News on the condition of anonymity, as he was not authorized to speak to the media. “There will be further deliveries.”
A BMC official confirmed to Defense News the delivery and the structure of the contract.
“This deal does not involve our company in any way,” the BMC official said, also requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. “The Ankara government delivered a batch of Kirpis it had in its military inventory.”
The Kirpi 1 is a heavy armored troop carrier. Its design work took off in 2008, with the first prototype available in 2009. The Turkish government signed a contract with BMC for the procurement of 614 Kirpi 1 vehicles, and the Land Forces have already used the vehicle type in the field. More than 1,500 Kirpi vehicles have been sold, with more than 200 to foreign customers.
In 2018, BMC introduced the Kirpi 2 and won another Turkish contract for 529 units.
The Kirpi is equipped with seat dampers, a GPS system, a rearview camera and an automatic fire-extinguishing system. It has five small arms embrasures and four bulletproof windows on each side of the passenger compartment.
The vehicle can be armed with a 7.62mm or 12.7mm machine gun, and is also available with remote controlled weapon stations. (Source: Defense News)
22 Aug 22. Delayed kamikaze drone for Ukraine on track for next month: Pentagon. The U.S. Army is poised to award a contract for longer-range, harder-hitting kamikaze drones for Ukraine more than five months after they were pledged to the fight against Russia, according to the Pentagon.
The research and development contract for 10 of the Switchblade 600 drones in question, made by AeroVironment, is expected in the next 30 days, Pentagon spokeswoman Jessica Maxwell said in an email to Defense News.
While Russia’s five-month-old invasion of Ukraine has mostly been an artillery war, thousands of drones are being used by both sides, and both the United States and Russia have been signaling that more are on the way.
“I think loitering munitions are going to be a significant part of that larger amount because they don’t require a lot of infrastructure, they don’t require a runway,” said Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones with the Center for Naval Analyses and Center for New American Security. “They may play a significant role in the way that the Russian military wants to attack Ukrainian soldiers, materiel, logistics and everything else on Russia’s list.”
The Pentagon has already sent Ukraine loitering munitions, which means the system itself is the payload: a number of the smaller, shorter-ranged Switchblade 300 variant, and the Phoenix Ghost. But observers say the Switchblade 600′s anti-armor payload, weighing in at 30 pounds and boasting longer loiter time, would offer an even better tool for finding and striking Russian troops and equipment during Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive in southern region of Kherson.
“This Switchblade capability can be instrumental as the Ukrainians are preparing their attack on Kherson and Crimea, because they can be launched beyond the range of Russian systems and inflict damage on Russian infrastructure,” Bendett said.
The appeal of loitering munitions is that they can provide reconnaissance and strike in a single package. And although less sophisticated drones can be used to spot Russian targets for their artillery, Russian forces have been using electronic warfare to trace them to their pilots and strike back.
“There have been a lot of losses among commercial drone operators on both sides, and the further away from combat you can launch your UAV, the better off you are,” Bendett said.
The 300 variant weighs 5.5 pounds, can fly 10 kilometers and loiter 15 minutes, while the 120-pound 600 version can fly 40 kilometers and loiter in the air for 40 minutes, according to the manufacturer.
The greater longevity and heavier payload would help Ukrainian forces target Russia’s armored, self-propelled artillery, in particular, said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“You can use a 300 maybe to damage a radar, but the more a Russian target is armored and the less Russian forces are in the open, the more you’re going to want the Switchblade 600,” Bowman said. “They have the same name, but they’re very different systems with very different target sets ― and they’d both be incredibly helpful to Ukrainian forces now and in the coming weeks.”
It’s unclear when the Switchblade 600 will arrive in Ukraine. The U.S. has quickly surged ms of dollars worth of military aid to Ukraine, but the Switchblade 600 is a “notable and unfortunate exception where we’re not moving as fast as we should be,” Bowman said.
Part of the lag in getting the 600 to Ukraine is that unlike the earlier 300 variant, it’s not considered a fielded capability and, because it’s still in the prototype phase, must complete testing and evaluation. According to Maxwell, the Pentagon spokesperson, the delivery date will be set once the contract is finalized.
Meanwhile, beyond loitering munitions, the Pentagon pledged last week it would send Ukraine the Insitu-made ScanEagle, a long-endurance, low-altitude reconnaissance drone intended to help guide targeting for Ukrainian artillery.
The most well-known drone in Ukraine’s arsenal has been the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2, a medium-altitude, long endurance drone, capable of reconnaissance but also striking and returning for re-use.
Russian has been publicizing its use of loitering munitions, namely the KUB along with the Lancet, both made by Kalashnikov subsidiary Zala. Russia has reportedly shown signs it plans to buy drones from Iran ― which could flood the war zone with hundreds more drones, Bendett said.
“Ukraine does need these munitions because they provide an excellent standoff capability,” Bendett said. “And they provide an excellent reminder to the Russians that they are not safe in Ukraine. Their infrastructure, their soldiers and their equipment are not safe because at any given point they may be hit by a Ukrainian UAV.” (Source: Defense News)

16 Aug 22. The war in Ukraine shows how important private satellite companies have become—especially in times of conflict. Satellites owned by private companies have played an unexpectedly important role in the war in Ukraine. For example, in early August 2022, images from the private satellite company Planet Labs showed that a recent attack on a Russian military base in Crimea caused more damage than Russia had suggested in public reports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the losses as evidence of Ukraine’s progress in the war.
Soon after the war began, Ukraine requested data from private satellite companies around the world. By the end of April, Ukraine was getting imagery from U.S. companies mere minutes after the data was collected.
My research focuses on international cooperation in satellite Earth observations, including the role of the private sector. While experts have long known that satellite imagery is useful during a conflict, the war in Ukraine has shown that commercial satellite data can make a decisive difference—informing both military planning as well as the public view of a war. Based on the strategic value commercial satellite imagery has held during this war, I believe it is likely that more nations will be investing in private satellite companies.
Growth of the commercial satellite sector
Remote-sensing satellites circle the Earth collecting imagery, radio signals and many other types of data. The technology was originally developed by governments for military reconnaissance, weather forecasting and environmental monitoring. But over the past two decades, commercial activity in this area has grown rapidly—particularly in the U.S. The number of commercial Earth observation satellites has increased from 11 in 2006 to more than 500 in 2022, about 350 of which belong to U.S. companies.
The earliest commercial satellite remote-sensing companies worked closely with the military from the beginning, but many of the newer entrants were not developed with national security applications in mind. Planet Labs, the U.S.-based company that has played a big role in the Ukrainian conflict, describes its customers as those in “agriculture, government, and commercial mapping,” and it hopes to expand to “insurance, commodities, and finance.” Spire, another U.S. company, was originally focused on monitoring weather and tracking commercial maritime activity. However, when the U.S. government set up pilot programs in 2016 to evaluate the value of data from these companies, many of the companies welcomed this new source of revenue.
Value of commercial data for national security
The U.S. government has its own highly capable network of spy satellites, so partnerships with private companies may come as a surprise, but there are clear reasons the U.S. government benefits from these arrangements.
First is the simple fact that purchasing commercial data allows the government to see more locations on the Earth more frequently. In some cases, data is now available quickly enough to enable real-time decision-making on the battlefield.
The second reason has to do with data sharing practices. Sharing data from spy satellites requires officials to go through a complex declassification process. It also risks revealing information about classified satellite capabilities. Neither of these is a concern with data from private companies. This aspect makes it easier for the military to share satellite information within the U.S. government as well as with U.S. allies. This advantage has proved to be a key factor for the war in Ukraine. (Source: Satnews)

22 Aug 22. Ukrainian C-UAS systems “have shot down 55 Russian drones” – Tim de Zitter report. An independent and personally-developed report by defence analyst Tim De Zitter (Lifecycle manager Land Combat Missiles, GBAD and CUAS and GMG systems within the Belgian Armed Forces), shared on Linkedin suggests that Ukraine is winning both the UAS and counter-UAS (C-UAS) battle, with 55 Russian drones destroyed and 48 captured, against 27 Ukrainian drones destroyed and four captured.
The report lists individual drone types, their roles and their losses from both sides, using information in the public domain.
Of particular note is the performance of the Bayraktar TB2s in Ukrainian service. Russian C-UAS systems have shot down 13 TB2s but not before TB2s have destroyed 10 Tor, Buk and Pantsir air defence systems, two KA-52, two fuel trains and multiple armoured vehicles, artillery units and other vehicles.
“Ukrainian drones can drop some kind of ammunition, and then they just fly in again empty and this is an incredible stress for people. People get tired morally, they have phobias. It’s exhausting,” according to a quote from an unnamed Russian soldier.
For more information
https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E1FAQHKiRsu9bewGA/feedshare-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1660834064299?e=1661990400&v=beta&t=m_MJBOSF9MamIN-v2-5zbf1QP5lfuiwLkMk3m_DSFdg (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

21 Aug 22. Russia says it has deployed Kinzhal hypersonic missile three times in Ukraine.
Summary
• This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine
Russia has deployed hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles three times over the course of what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Sunday.
The Kinzhal missiles are part of an array of new hypersonic weapons President Vladimir Putin presented in 2018 in a bellicose speech in which he said they could hit almost any point in the world and evade a U.S.-built missile shield.
Shoigu, speaking on state television, said the missiles had proved effective in hitting high-value targets on all three occasions, hailing them as without compare and as almost impossible to take down when in flight.
“We have deployed it three times during the special military operation,” Shoigu said in an interview broadcast on Rossiya 1. “And three times it showed brilliant characteristics.”
Russia first used the Kinzhal system in Ukraine about a month after sending tens of thousands of troops into its neighbour’s territory, striking a large weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region.
This week, Russia’s defence ministry said three MiG-31E warplanes equipped with Kinzhal missiles had been relocated to the Kaliningrad region, a Russian Baltic coast exclave located between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.
On Russia’s Navy Day late last month, Putin announced that the navy would receive what he called “formidable” hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles in coming months. The missiles can travel at nine times the speed of sound, outrunning air defences. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
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