NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Ukraine Conflict – July 18th.

Military and security developments

15 Jul 22.

• Russia’s operational pause continues, featuring small, limited ground assaults along the front lines, including the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut line. Russian forces alleged that they have entered the outskirts of Siversk, a key target in the area, though the claims have not been verified. The forces are likely to continue incrementally advancing in the short term and are likely preparing a larger offensive westwards towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, with Bakhmut the next likely objective, should the Russians secure Siversk.
• Russia is due to make a major announcement on July 15th regarding future operations and missile strikes. Indications are that if operations in taking the whole of the Donbas by the end of October there will be  a pause to consider further operations in Odessa and Kherson unless a reported Ukrainian counter attack succeeds, if not sources suggest that Europe will suggest a ceasefire based on the land taken at that time, with Russia retaining the land taken. Russia is building up extra forces with 38,000 new conscripts expected by August.
• European equipment continues to arrive in the form of wheeled artillery from France and Slovakia with the UK Light Guns expected to arrive soon as soon as the Ukrainians are trained on the weapons in the UK. Polish tanks will arrive in two months as will the refurbished M109s supplied from Belgium and refurbished by the UK as well as Saxon APCs for  the UK and Australian M113 APCs. . Germany is the exception with promised equipment failing to materialise and the promise of the massive  defence spending rise now looking to be rolled back to  a less sufficient increase. In addition the promise of €5.5bn from the EU looks more like €2.5bn with €500m pledged during the EU summit next week. Spare parts supply continues to hinder deployment of gifted equipment
• Meanwhile, Russian artillery, missiles, and airstrikes continued targeting the front lines and urban areas. Ukrainian officials also noted that the Vinnytsia city centre, which was hit yesterday, was struck by three submarine-launched Kalibr missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that the submarine was located in the Black Sea and that two Russian missiles were also destroyed by Ukrainian air defences.
• On 14 July, Russian forces also launched several missiles, including S-300 surface-to-air (SAM) missiles (albeit, again, for surface-to-surface purposes) at various civilian targets and infrastructure in Mykolaiv, including S-300 missiles. According to Vitaliy Kim, head of the Mykolaiv military administration, at least 10 Russian missiles hit two universities in Mykolaiv. Russian missiles also struck and destroyed a transport infrastructure facility and the Mykolaiv business centre.
• Following yesterday’s missile strikes in Vinnytsia, Mykhailo Podolyak, the head of Ukraine’s negotiating team and key adviser to President Zelensky, alleged that the attack was part of an “approved military strategy” by President Putin. He claimed that the string of recent attacks on peaceful cities and civilian infrastructure were not mistakes, but a deliberate military strategy designed to force Kyiv to sign a peace deal “at any price”. Moscow has generally primarily targeted military infrastructure and resupply lines, but it has been relying more heavily on less accurate Soviet-era weapons due to its limited supply of more modern high-precision weapons, something that will only continue to increase the risk of civilian collateral damage going forward. However, equally, as the string of strikes over this week suggests, Russia may well be becoming more indiscriminate in bombing civilian targets amid continued promises of more western weapons to Ukraine and Kyiv’s counter offensive operations in Kherson.
• Similarly, Ukrainian attacks against Russian ammunition depots continued over the last 24-hours. According to a Telegram post by the chief of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Serhii Haidai, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Kadiivka. A video shared on Telegram appears to corroborate the claim. Ukrainian armed forces also reportedly destroyed Russian headquarters and barracks in Nova Myachka, Kherson region.
• In the south, the Ukrainian Main Military Directorate (GUR) reported more Russian ammunition movements, reporting that Russian forces were moving ammunition in the vicinity of or inside key historic landmarks, such as the Kherson City Drama Theatre, or residential buildings, such as in Melitopol. Using these locations as ammunition depot is likely meant to dissuade Ukrainian forces from attacking its own symbolic landmarks as well as civilians. Meanwhile, Russian artillery continued striking targets along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk lines.
• Lastly, as highlighted in previous days, reports of Russian military personnel and workforce shortages continued. On 14 July, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that a Russian volunteer battalion had been deployed to Ukraine to “liberate” the Donetsk People’s Republic. Additional details, including the size of the battalion, were not immediately shared. Such ‘reinforcements’ will likely provide Russian forces with additional firepower and manpower, however, the combat quality of these volunteers will remain questionable.

Political developments

• On 14 July, President Putin officially signed into law tougher measures for individuals or entities considered “foreign agents” by Moscow, which will come into effect on 1 December and expand the definition of what constitutes a “foreign agent”. The new definition will include anyone that the state deems to have fallen under “foreign influence.” Under the newly expanded rules, the state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor now has the power to bock websites it believes are run by foreign agents without a court order. The development is on trend and is highly reflective of the complete intolerance of the state regarding anti-war coverage or any form of criticism, and will only reinforce Russia’s isolation from the international community for years to come.
• In response to Western concerns regarding weapons smuggling from Ukraine to Europe’s black market, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said Kyiv will expand its arms tracking system. He also stated Ukraine would welcome more military representatives from partner countries to observe weapons deliveries to address Western concerns. Reznikov said that the country has been using NATO’s software to track arms deliveries and use since 2019, although there are limited number of professionals in Ukraine who can use the software. As such, Reznikov said they will be putting more emphasis on training personnel to use the tracking software, and will aim to introduce the use of the system on a brigade or battalion levels to ensure better accuracy. Reznikov also highlighted that it is highly unlikely that heavy weapon systems are being smuggled out of Ukraine considering that most of them are tracked by GPS, therefore, Western satellites can monitor their movement. The Defence Minister, however, admitted that firearms could indeed be smuggled out of the country in smaller quantities considering that in the first days of the war, many Kalashnikovs were handed out to volunteers.
• On 13 July, Czech PM Petr Fiala announced that the European Union (EU) will not stop imports of Russian gas in its seventh sanctions package. Instead, the EU’s seventh sanctions package will target more individuals, ban gold imports, and stop more dual-use goods from being exported to Russia once approved next week. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU imported 40 percent of its gas supplies from Moscow and while states are discussing alternative energy supplies with the US and Qatar it is unrealistic that the EU will transition to new suppliers this winter. Businesses operating in the EU should anticipate heightened energy security concerns as there is a realistic possibility that Russia will cut off gas supplies to the EU in retaliation for the ongoing sanctions. Russia has already cut off gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands and others for not paying Russia in rubles; a demand made by President Putin following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions packages from the EU, UK and US.
• On the 27 June, the EU passed sanctions on Iran restricting the trade of goods, limiting the financial sector, and implementing travel bans on named persons and entities. This week Serbia refused to implement these sanctions. According to the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, Serbia will continue to prioritise its own national interests by engaging in good foreign policy relations with Iran to encourage stability and economic prosperity in all of its sectors during this elevated period of energy concerns and post-pandemic recovery efforts. Belgrade’s reluctance to comply with EU sanctions against Iran underlines that it is unlikely to become an EU-member state in the medium term.
• Lastly, 41 individuals issued lawsuits against the EU requesting removal from Russia-related sanctions lists as information used to place them under sanctions was weak, old or incorrect. If guilty, incorrectly named individuals potentially included on UK and US sanctions lists may seek further legal action. An evolving sanctions landscape could make businesses less supportive of sanctions implementation as the administrative process of reviewing sanctions compliance could become even more laborious for companies, with businesses seeking to expand legal teams to keep track of increased sanctions.

FORECAST

On 18 July, EU member states are reportedly set to approve EUR 500m in military aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to EUR 2.5bn since the invasion. However, since proposing in May to send EUR 9bn in emergency loans to Kyiv, to date the bloc has only agreed on a sum that meets a ninth of the target, with the details of the package not yet fully agreed. To that end, concerns are rising in Kyiv that the EU is falling behind on delivering its promised financial assistance amid fears of being completely cut off from Russian gas, and the rising cost-of-living crisis. Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko reiterated yesterday that Ukraine urgently needs these funds “by the end of the year”. However, EU economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said today, 15 July, that European governments have a “duty” to mitigate the impact of rising prices, especially energy prices, on the poor, and that the EU’s economic response to Ukraine must be such that prevents the risk of exhaustion amongst Europeans. As such, against this backdrop and with Brussels heading into a traditionally slower summer period, the main bulk of the financial aid package will almost certainly not be agreed in the coming weeks, as it will require authorisation of all 27 member states. Lastly, this debate, including plans for Ukraine’s reconstruction, is highly likely to only become more cumbersome in the months ahead especially as a complete gas shut off from Russia is now a realistic possibility.

14 Jul 22.

Military and security developments

• The latest intelligence update by the UK Ministry of Defence has confirmed that Russian forces have not made any “significant territorial advances” over the last 72 hours in the Donbas, stating also that the forces are “in danger of losing momentum” after capturing Luhansk oblast.
• In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces also failed to secure any additional territorial gains near Slovyansk on 13 July. Russian ground operations have reportedly failed or were repelled by Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, Ivanivka, Dolyna, Dovhenke, as well as east of Bakhmut, while Russian forces hit critical infrastructure, including the Slovyansk-Lyman rail, Stupky Rail Station, and bridges. A Russian air strike also targeted areas near Mazanivka, while artillery attacks continued in Dolyna, Krasnopillia, and Donetske. Artillery strikes also persisted near Siversk, Serebryanka, Raiske, Ivano-Darivka, Avdiivka, Mariinka, and Novomykhailivka, while air strikes targeted Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne. According to Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Assistant to Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselyov, Russian forces are in proximity of Soledar, but the claim has not been independently corroborated.
• In the south, Russian forces are reportedly preparing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive following reports that Russian forces were fortifying the Antoniv Bridge, and moved Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles to Melitopol, likely to protect against Ukrainian missile strikes. Artillery attacks, meanwhile, targeted Ukrainian positions along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk oblasts as well as against Chervonohryhorivka, Myrove, and Nikopol.
• Notably, today, Ukrainian forces claimed that they have struck two military checkpoints and a landing pad in the occupied town of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson. Unconfirmed statements by local authorities suggest that the attack killed 13 Russian “occupiers”. The incident marks the second successful attack by Kyiv on this area after Ukrainian forces successfully struck an ammunition depot there earlier this week. Russian Foreign Ministry subsequently responded by accusing NATO of waging “hybrid warfare” on Russia given the supply of weapons to Ukraine, in particular HIMARS systems, which continue to support Ukrainian counter offensive capabilities.
• Additionally, in another significant development, according to the South Ukrainian Operational Command, a pair of SU-27 Russian fighter jets unsuccessfully attempted to bomb Zmiiynyi Island (Snake Island). The event is significant as the Russian forces left the island on 30 June following a successful Ukrainian offensive, with the island’s strategic location important to facilitating grain shipments. Moscow previously claimed that the withdrawal is a “gesture of goodwill” that illustrates Russia is not interfering in UN-led efforts to restart maritime grain exports through the Black Sea. As such, the incident could undermine the reported progress in unblocking grain shipments from Ukraine.
• Lastly, Russia has reportedly implemented ‘volunteer mobilisation’, with every region, including Ukrainian occupied ones, to recruit enough volunteers to form at least one battalion. Recruits aged up to 60-year old will be recruited with six-month contracts and salaries ranging between USD 3,750-6,000 per month. Each battalion is estimated to include 400 soldiers, each of which will receive one month training. According to Russian media, such volunteer battalions have already been formed or deployed in various Russian regions. The volunteers are expected to be deployed as early as August, possibly indicating the end of Russia’s operational pause. With fitness and combat quality expected to be lower than conscripts or professional soldiers, volunteers will nonetheless provide additional manpower and firepower to Russian forces in Ukraine. However, doubts remain over the current command and leadership of officers on the ground, with desertions likely to continue.

Political developments

• On 13 July, the EU clarified that sanctioned goods transiting from Russia can transit the bloc via rail, an announcement that was immediately welcomed by Moscow. The EU did, however, confirm that the sanctioned goods are banned from being moved by road, and that national authorities will be responsible for conducting checks on rail cargo. Sanctioned military goods remain banned, irrespective of the mode of transport. The announcement follows Lithuania’s earlier decision to expand the list of sanctioned items that it would ban from being transported via its territory to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. As such, the latest announcement is very likely to ease tensions between Russia and Lithuania, though the frictions will nevertheless remain heightened as Lithuanian authorities are likely to carry out checks with particular scrutiny, potentially leading to transit delays of Russian goods.
• Tomorrow, 15 July, Russia’s lower house of parliament, State Duma, will reportedly gather for an “extraordinary” meeting, with over 60 issues expected to be discussed. Policy announcements and government reshuffle are likely, with issues concerning measures to support the military and the Russian economy likely to appear on the agenda. Although the agenda has not been made public, unnamed sources in the media have reported that the deputies are expected to confirm Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov for the post of Deputy Prime Minister, given a “huge need for mobilisation decisions in the industrial sector” and the need to revive Russia’s industrial capacity.

FORECAST

Following crucial talks regarding grain exports on 13 July, the UN reported that Russia and Ukraine have made “very substantive progress” and suggested that a final agreement could be reached next week at the second round of talks. However, reaching the final agreement will still nevertheless require “a lot of goodwill and commitment” from both sides, according to the statement. Nevertheless, progress was reportedly made on difficult technical points such as checks on vessels entering and exiting Ukrainian ports and route security – something that both Kyiv and Moscow have previously deeply disagreed on. Both parties have reportedly agreed to establish “a Joint Coordination Centre under the UN auspices” to ensure the security of grain exports via the Black Sea. As such, although the likelihood of a final deal being reached has increased and is now a realistic possibility, the threat of this progress being derailed remains very high in the days ahead should Russian armed forces step up atrocities in Ukraine. In this regard, this morning, 14 July, local authorities in the central city of Vinnytsia confirmed that three Russian missiles hit the city centre, resulting in several civilian deaths, with President Zelensky condemning it as “an open act of terrorism”. Additionally, Ukrainian authorities also reported that a pair of SU-27 Russian fighter jets unsuccessfully attempted to strike Zmiiynyi Island (Snake Island). The event is significant as the Russian forces left the island on 30 June, claiming that the withdrawal is a “gesture of goodwill” that illustrates Russia is not interfering in UN-led efforts to restart maritime grain exports through the Black Sea. To that end, these developments underline the potential for the progress to be delayed further, though given Ukraine’s dire need for the restoration of revenue flows from grain exports, the pressure on Kyiv to continue the talks will remain high.

Ukraine-Russia: Progress on grain exports reported, moderately improving the likelihood of a final deal. Following crucial talks regarding grain exports on 13 July, the UN reported that Russia and Ukraine have made “very substantive progress” and suggested that a final agreement could be reached next week at the second round of talks. However, reaching the final agreement will still nevertheless require “a lot of goodwill and commitment” from both sides, according to the statement. Nevertheless, progress was reportedly made on difficult technical points such as checks on vessels entering and exiting Ukrainian ports and route security – something that both Kyiv and Moscow have previously deeply disagreed on. Details of how these would function were not specified, however. As such, although the likelihood of a final deal being reached has notably increased and is now a realistic possibility, the threat of this progress being derailed remains very high should Russian armed forces escalate assaults in the east and the south of Ukraine in the coming days.

13 Jul 22.

• Moscow did not claim any new territorial gains on 12 July, with the operational pause to allow Russian forces to regroup and rest still in place. Russia, however, continued to conduct air and artillery strikes, with the forces likely preparing for an offensive, though the timing of future operations is still unknown. Nevertheless, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence released intelligence stating that Russia is likely to capture a number of small settlements in the coming week as Russian forces push towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the likely key objectives for the Russian forces at this stage.
• Fighting in the proximity of the E40 highway continued, with Ukrainian forces repelling Russian ground offensives towards Dovhenke, Mazanivka, Krasnopillia, Dolyna, Mayaky, and Ivanivka. Russian forces also launched ground assault operations on Siversk, and toward Sprine and Ivano-Darivka, the latter of which failed, resulting in heavy Russian losses. Russian ground assaults also failed in Dementiivka. Russian shelling, meanwhile, continued in Barvinkove, Chepil, Dibrovne, Komyshuvakha, Mazanivka, and Velyka.
• Russian shelling also continued near Avdiivka, Marinka, Kurakhove, areas west and east of Donetsk City, and against Kharkiv City districts. Limited ground operations and targeted artillery attacks will continue throughout Russia’s operational pause to keep pressure on Ukrainian forces and to maintain the operational tempo against them. As for Russian forces, their operational tempo may gradually slow in the short-to-medium term due to loss of personnel, ammunition depletion, and ineffective personnel retention and leadership. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s efforts will likely continue to be bolstered by western weapons in the short term, though attrition warfare will nevertheless keep depleting both sides’ resources.
• Moreover, following yesterday’s reports that Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition depot in the occupied town on Nova Kakhovka, in Kherson, the Russia-installed authorities alleged that at least seven people have been killed, though the information cannot be verified. Pro-Russia officials suggested that the strike was carried out by the US supplied HIMARS system, four more of which, will reportedly be given to Ukraine. Notably, following the attack, Russian state media reported that Ukraine was successfully attacking “decision-making centres several times, with results.” The statement underlines the effectiveness of western supplied weapons in enabling Ukrainian forces to carry out counter attacks along the southern axis.
• Additionally, in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia oblast, several explosions and smoke from the area near the Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant were reported yesterday. The incident, was likely a Russian false-flag attack, designed to cause panic among the population and to drive them out of the area, to either launch an assault or to prevent a Ukrainian counter-offensive. The incident followed Ukrainian authorities’ calls on civilians to evacuate the occupied areas before the start of a Ukrainian counter offensive.
• Lastly, Ukrainian authorities, including the Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), continued to report about low morale, desertions, and personnel shortages among Russian troops. Despite reports that Russian forces are forming a new brigade-level unit in Kherson oblast, several officers and soldiers are reportedly refusing to be deployed or to fight altogether. Moreover, reports have surfaced in recent days of high-ranking Russian officers and commanders dying in Ukraine. A loss of the chain of command compounded by a loss of personnel will likely delay Russia’s future assaults operations, slow the tempo of operations, and increasingly strain military-political relations.

Political developments

• Ukraine’s wealthiest and one of its most influential oligarchs, Rinat Akhmetov, announced that his investment company, System Capital Management (SCM), would exit its large media business and hand the licences over to the state. The move is designed to comply with the law passed last year to curb the influence of oligarchs, all of whom own media outlets in Ukraine. The media is one way in which this group of actors has historically been able to exert their influence in the country and shape the political landscape. Although by itself the development will not immediately improve Ukraine’s longstanding problem with informal influence of big business in politics, it nevertheless represents a notable step in a positive direction. Furthermore, in the longer term, should such progress continue, Ukraine’s political stability is likely to improve. Moreover, whilst largely symbolic at this stage, the development will likely also be positively received by Ukraine’s western partners, who require Kyiv to implement meaningful reforms in order to receive financial assistance and for the country to progress towards full European Union (EU) membership.
• Russia continued to undermine Ukraine’s legitimacy and expanded its efforts to solidify control over the occupied territories, as the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic unveiled its “embassy” in Moscow on 12 July. Russian-backed separatist leaders said that “there will be a referendum” on joining Russia, though as noted in our previous reporting, the dates for such potential vote frequently change, though the latest posited date for a referendum in Kherson is 11 September. This, however, could change, especially if Kyiv continues to push ahead with successful strikes and counter offensives in the region. Nevertheless, the latest development follows an 11 July decree that extended Russia’s fast-track citizenship scheme to all Ukrainians, as opposed to only to those living in the occupied territories, in a further sign that Moscow is seeking to cement its presence in Ukraine as well as permanently control the occupied territories.
• Lastly, yesterday, after two months of discussions, EU finance ministers reached an agreement regarding a GBP 1bn loan to Ukraine, which is part of a larger GBP 9 bn financial assistance package planned by the EU. Due to the ongoing war, tax revenues in Ukraine have decreased considerably, with Ukraine set to be much more heavily reliant on financial assistance from partner countries in the short-to-medium term. Although the approval will alleviate the most immediate socio-economic pressures, the remaining GBP 8 bn will almost certainly take several months for the EU to agree, with the details of the structure of the remaining financial assistance currently unknown.

FORECAST

Today, 13 July, Turkey is set to host talks with Russia, Ukraine, and the UN on the export of grain shipments sitting in Ukrainian ports. The meeting follows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s separate discussion with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts on the issue on 11 July. Whilst Erdogan said last week that he is confident that grain exports would be unblocked “within ten days,” Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba cast doubt on the likelihood of a quick agreement being reached. Kuleba further added today that the negotiations are in the “final phase” but highlighted that “everything depends on Russia.” Previous high-level discussions on the topic in June also ended with no real progress, with Moscow blaming Kyiv for the blockade of their own Black Sea coast and demanding that Ukraine demine the approaches to various key ports, including Odesa, before any progress can be made. The Ukrainians have in turn rebuffed the proposals, claiming that Russia has stipulated various unreasonable conditions, such as compulsory searches of Ukrainian vessels at sea. As such, given that a great amount of mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow remains, and allegations that Russia is exporting stolen Ukrainian grain persist, the likelihood of the impasse being broken remains uncertain, with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres also underlining that “there is still a way to go” in relation to the negotiations.

Ukraine: Anti-corruption reforms mark slow but promising progress Rinat Akhmetov, the wealthiest (and possibly the most influential) oligarch in Ukraine, announced that his investment company, System Capital Management (SCM), will hand the licences of its media business to the Ukrainian state. The move is designed to demonstrate compliance with a law that ostensibly curbs the influence of oligarchs, whose media outlets have traditionally helped to propel their influence. Although this isolated development will not immediately improve Ukraine’s longstanding problem of big business influencing politics, it still represents a notable step in a positive direction. More importantly, the decision reflects greater unity between the oligarchs and the state as Kyiv struggles to push through with reforms, which are necessary to secure international funding amid its ongoing conflict with Russia.

EU-Ukraine: Increased arms trafficking from Ukraine will elevate threat of violent crime and attacks in Europe. On 12 July, NATO and EU member states called for improved tracking of weapons given to Ukraine, citing concerns that criminal organisations are trafficking them out of the country and into Europe. Over USD 10 bn in military support from Western allies has been pledged to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion. This aid ranges from portable rocket launchers and armoured vehicles to rifles and vast amounts of ammunition. The EU’s law enforcement agency, Europol, stated in April that its investigations suggested that criminal organisations were beginning to receive weapons trafficked into the EU from Ukraine, elevating the threat of violent crimes and attacks across the continent. Due to their proximity and the existence of established smuggling routes, countries bordering Ukraine, including Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, face heightened threats related to arms trafficking.

12 Jul 22.

• Given the current operational pause, there have not been any notable military developments over the last 24-hours. Limited artillery or missile attacks against individual targets are now part of the operational norm. Nevertheless, Russian forces have reportedly made minor territorial gains in Donetsk, claiming to have captured the town of Hryhorivka. The forces have also continued their assault towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, firing on Ukrainian positions along the E-40 main supply route towards the two cities. It is likely that the coming weeks will see an increase in the operational tempo as the forces are likely preparing for a renewed offensive.
• Meanwhile, Russian missiles continued to hit other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, with damage reported to civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv on the morning of 12 July. The development follows the intensification in strikes in the region over the weekend in Kharkiv and Donetsk, with Ukrainian authorities warning on 11 July that Russian forces are “preparing to intensify combat operations in the direction of Kramatorsk and Bakhmut”.
• According to social media sources, Russian ground units were fighting around Ivano-Darivka to advance towards Vyimka and gain access to the T0513 highway, which connects with Siversk. Artillery attacks, meanwhile, occurred in Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Zakitne, Serebryanka, Verkhmokamyanske, and Zvanivka. Artillery and air strikes also continued in Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Zaitseve, Spirne, Berestove, Pokrovske, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline, and towards the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblast border. Small-scale ground assaults are expected to continue around key strategic lines of communication, likely to prepare for future assaults of larger localities and targets, while artillery and air strikes will maintain high pressure on Ukrainian forces.
• Elsewhere, in the south, Ukrainian forces reportedly continued their targeting of Russian ammunition depots in Kherson on 11 July after vowing to “de-occupy” the region with hundreds of thousands of troops. More specifically, Ukrainian authorities reported a long-range rocket strike had struck an ammunition depot in the occupied town on Nova Kakhovka in Kherson, marking the fourth time that such depots have been destroyed in the town. Ukrainian sources said the strike killed 52 Russians and destroyed “an Msta-B howitzer, a mortar, and seven armoured and other vehicles”. As such, the announcement last week that Washington will provide Kyiv with four additional HIMARS systems, which have allowed Ukraine to launch a string of successful strikes against Russian targets in the occupied areas, will likely further add to Moscow’s mounting personnel and equipment loss issues.
• Concerns over Russian desertion, low recruitment, and disobedience continued to circulate in the media, with Russian social media channels sharing images of billboards showing 300 troops who refused to participate in the invasion. As such, Russian personnel losses will put into question Russia’s ability to increase its operational tempo and war efforts, with Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) noting yesterday that Russian private military companies (PMCs) are bolstering their recruitment efforts to compensate for regular personnel losses. Moscow has also reportedly been resorting more and more towards recruiting prisoners. As such, concerns about more indiscriminate future attacks against civilians will likely increase due to lack of proper training, leadership, and control of the troops.
• US national security adviser Jake Sullivan stated that Iran is expected to supply “hundreds” of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including weapons-capable ones, to Russia “on an expedited timeline” and “to train Russian forces to use these UAVs…as soon as early July”. Sullivan noted it was unclear when the deliveries would occur. His statement preceded US President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East, which is set to begin on 13 July, and is likely designed to consolidate support against Iran. The supply of Iranian drones to Russian forces would likely disrupt negotiations over the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Sullivan noting that the news reflects the fact that Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine is “coming at a cost of the sustainment of its own weapons”.

Cyber Update

• Pro-Russian threat actors’ publicly disclosed cyber activity has declined during this monitoring period. Such activity is in line with the current “operational pause” that Russia’s conventional military is undergoing as well. Given that Moscow has been observed launching complementary cyber attacks against Ukraine-based strategic targets before its conventional military operations, a flurry of Russia-linked cyber attacks could indicate a resumption of Moscow’s military offensive in the Donbas region. Such cyber attacks will likely take the form of disruptive or intelligence-gathering operations, such as DDoS or data wipers.
• Outside of Ukraine, Lithuania’s decision to block goods into Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave will likely instigate a resurgence of pro-Russian cyber attacks against Lithuania-based organisations. Despite this, pro-Russian hacking groups’ limited technical capabilities and resourcing will ensure that these attacks remain rudimentary in nature and have limited impact on their targets’ operations.
• Publicly disclosed pro-Ukraine hacking operations including data leaks and disruptive cyber activities have also experienced a modest decline during this monitoring period. Given that tensions over Moscow’s continued, but limited, missile and artillery strikes are set to persist, further pro-Kyiv cyber campaigns are highly likely to be launched in the coming days. These cyber attacks will most likely remain low-level rudimentary attacks that have limited or no impact on Russia-based business operations or Moscow’s military activity in Ukraine.

Russia-linked campaigns slightly decline; however, Pro-Moscow groups will continue launching disruptive cyber attacks against Ukraine and Western countries supporting Kyiv’s operations. On 11 July, Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) claimed that unknown threat actors are targeting state-linked organisations with phishing emails. These emails purport to contain a document titled “joint official report on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine”. These phishing attacks contain documents that once clicked upon will lead to the execution of the Cobalt Strike Beacon malware, which is used to conduct further malicious activities. This is the latest campaign since the CERT-UA disclosed on 6 July that unknown threat actors are targeting state organisations with emails alleging to contain information about the vacancies and staffing opportunities in the “specialised prosecutor’s office in the military and defence sphere”. Once clicked upon, the document also activates a macro that drops, amongst other things, a PowerShell script and ultimately the Cobalt Strike Beacon malware. Given the targeting and lures utilised in these cyber attacks, this campaign is likely being launched by pro-Russian hackers. If officially confirmed, such activity would be indicative of Microsoft’s April 2022 report that 32 percent of the 237 cyber operations targeted against Ukraine till that point were targeted against Ukrainian government organisations (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 28 April 2022).

Pro-Kyiv hackers’ data leak operations decline; however, the threat posed to Russia-based businesses and Russian government agencies will persist indefinitely

• On 11 July, a Twitter account allegedly linked to the Anonymous hacktivist collective claimed that the group hacked a website linked to Russian energy firm Gazprom Power’s Irkutsk Uoo LLC Branch. This site was allegedly involved in the tender process for the project “supply of grocery products for the needs of the Branch Irkutsk Uoo Llc Gazprom Power”. While the hacktivists claimed to have “wiped” all the data contained on this site, these claims cannot be independently verified and should be subjected to scepticism. However, if officially confirmed, such activity would be consistent with Anonymous’ targeting of high-profile Russian companies as a part of its #OpRussia campaign aimed at expressing the group’s political grievances over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
• On 11 July, a separate Twitter account purporting to represent Anonymous claimed that the group hacked the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute and leaked over 50,000 documents online. Investigations into this alleged data leak are still ongoing, making it difficult to assess both the veracity of Anonymous’ claim and the impact of this incident. Nevertheless, if officially confirmed, this incident would be consistent with Anonymous’ 12 July allegation that the collective has hacked and leaked over 12 m Russian files and emails since the start of the Ukraine conflict on 24 February.
• Between 7-10 July, a series of Twitter accounts allegedly linked to Anonymous claimed that the collective hacked the Belarus National Legal Internet Portal and the Russian Biology Laboratory that was engaged in “scientific equipment” manufacturing. Investigations of these incidents are still ongoing, making it difficult to assess the full impact of these cyber attacks. Nevertheless, initial analysis indicates that the Belarusian website was likely subject to a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack while the Russian website was targeted by a defacement operation. As such, both campaigns appear to be technically rudimentary attacks that will have a limited and temporary impact on the victims’ operations. In addition, no data appears to have been leaked as a result of these cyber attacks.

FORECAST

Publicly-disclosed pro-Russian cyber attacks declined slightly during this monitoring period, with the suspected pro-Russian cyber campaigns disclosed by the CERT-UA representing the most immediate and notable threat to Ukraine’s state organisations or entities supporting Kyiv’s critical operations, such as in the technology sector. While the current lack of information regarding these campaigns, including their success rate, makes it difficult to assess the impact they have had on Ukraine’s military or government operations, further such campaigns are highly likely to emerge in the coming months. Indeed, the aforementioned Microsoft report found that the timing of the cyber attacks launched by pro-Russian hackers matched closely with Russia’s conventional military activities in Ukraine. While the conflict is currently experiencing an “operational pause” (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 12-07-2022), a flurry of cyber attacks against strategic targets – such as telecommunications or water infrastructure – in Ukraine’s contested eastern region over the coming days and weeks could indicate that a resumption of Russia’s military operations is forthcoming. Such cyber activity is most likely to take the form of disruptive, destructive, or intelligence-gathering operations, such as DDoS or data-wipers, and aimed at either helping the Russian government assess the Ukrainian military’s strategies or limit Kyiv’s ability to rally a response to its military offensives. Outside of Ukraine, there is a realistic probability of Lithuania’s 11 July expansion of restrictions on the transport of goods through its territory to the Russian Kaliningrad exclave resulting in a spike in pro-Russian cyber attacks against Lithuania-based organisations. Indeed, Vilnius’ June decision to block transport to Kaliningrad was met with retaliatory DDoS attacks by the pro-Russian hacktivist group Killnet targeted against Lithuanian government and business websites. While these cyber attacks did successfully target several different sites, they were technically very rudimentary and each incident was resolved within a few hours. Indeed, forensic investigations of these incidents – and similar attacks launched in Italy, Romania, and Norway – revealed that these victims were targeted because security measures, such as placing websites and critical infrastructure behind firewalls, were not fully implemented. To this end, while further such disruptive cyber attacks are highly likely to be launched in the coming weeks, Moscow’s apparent lack of time, funding, and resources will likely limit both the success and sophistication of these cyber attacks. Organisations are advised to consult the “Quick Guide” checklists provided by Western governments’ cyber security agencies – such as the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) – to minimise their exposure to Russia-linked threats. Elsewhere, publicly-disclosed pro-Ukraine cyber campaigns have also seen a modest decline during this monitoring period. Nevertheless, the cyber attacks that have been observed or alleged over the previous week have remained focused on leaking data and launching disruptive cyber operations to express their political grievances over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With tensions over the continued presence of Russian military forces in Ukraine’s Donbas region and Moscow’s limited artillery and missile strikes in the country set to persist, further pro-Ukraine cyber attacks are highly likely to emerge in the coming days. Despite this, these cyber attacks will most likely remain low-level rudimentary incidents – such as DDoS, defacement, or data leaks – and have limited or no impact on Russia-based business operations and/or military activity in Ukraine. Western businesses that continue to operate in Russia will also be at a heightened risk of being targeted by these pro-Ukraine cyber campaigns.

Political developments

• Assassination attempts against Russia-installed authorities continued yesterday, with unnamed assailants successfully killing the head of Velyky Burluk in the Kharkiv region by blowing up his car. Meanwhile, an unsuccessful assassination attempt was also made against another Russia-installed leader in Kherson, with numerous such attempts reported in the region over the last couple of months. Although access to information behind the frontlines is extremely limited, the events and previous reports of local protests underline the enduring resistance on the ground despite the Kremlin’s efforts to integrate the occupied territories into Russia and fully solidify control over the areas outside of the Donbas. To that end, the Kremlin has taken further steps, such as signing a decree on 11 July to extend the fast-tracked citizenship scheme to all Ukrainians, as opposed to only to those living in the occupied territories, in a further sign that Moscow is likely seeking to cement its presence in Ukraine as well as permanently control the occupied territories.
• Additionally, yesterday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke with both Kyiv and Moscow in a latest attempt to solve the issue over Ukrainian grain shipments. However, the talks did not result in any major breakthroughs, with Ukraine reiterating its accusations that Russia is stealing Ukrainian grain and blocking the ports. Meanwhile, President Putin and President Erdogan are reportedly planning a follow up meeting to discuss the situation in the near future. Whilst the willingness of both Putin and Zelensky to engage in talks on the issue moderately raises the prospect of an agreement being reached, the mutual mistrust between the two sides will likely continue to delay the process as Kyiv also demands a third state’s naval assistance to escort grain exporting vessels.

FORECAST

On 12 July, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will discuss the potential introduction of a price cap on Russian oil along with Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. The discussion is part of a broader push by the US following the G7 meeting in late-June to convince partner countries, including India and Australia, to support a price cap on Russian oil in order to stem the Kremlin’s revenues. Additionally, the US is also looking at options to introduce secondary measures or sanctions, such as banning insurance and the transportation of Russian oil, unless it is being sold below a certain price. While the European Union and the United Kingdom have also expressed support for the phase-out of Russian oil, it will likely take several weeks or months for the countries to agree on the details of the plan, which could drive up oil prices further in the short term, as well as drive the risk of Russian retaliation if implemented.

Kazakhstan – Russia: Oil exports via Caspian Pipeline Consortium moderately alleviate supply disruptions concerns. On 11 July, a Russian court overruled last week’s decision which ordered the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to halt operations. The CPC transports oil from Kazakhstan via Russia to the Black Sea and is an important source of revenue for Kazakhstan. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has, on several occasions, used the CPC as a way to pressure Nur-Sultan after the latter refused to provide support for the invasion or to recognise the two Russia-backed separatist territories in eastern Ukraine. The decision to overturn the original ruling, which resulted in a minor fine to the CPC, will ease concerns over supply and revenue stream disruptions to Nur-Sultan in the short term. However, the likelihood of Moscow engineering similar disruptions will remain high in the weeks ahead as it seeks to apply pressure to global energy markets and retaliate against western sanctions.

Lithuania: Vilnius halts transport of further goods to Kaliningrad, increasing regional tensions with Russia and the risk of cyber attacks. On 11 July, Lithuania expanded restrictions on rail transport of goods through its territory to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The current expansion of restrictions follows the next tranche of EU sanctions entering into force, with the ban including wood, alcohol, concrete and alcohol-based industrial chemicals. The move follows the initial decision in June to halt trains transporting goods from Russia to Kaliningrad, reportedly to comply with the EU sanctions. In response, Moscow warned that Russia could take “harsh measures” should the transit of goods not resume “within the coming days.” In June, the pro-Russian Killnet hacker group targeted Lithuanian government and business websites in Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks (DDoS). It is highly likely that the new restrictions introduced by Lithuania will further elevate regional tensions with Russia resulting in further cyber attacks in the coming month to pressure Lithuania into reversing the decision.

11 Jul 22.

• The UK’s Ministry of Defence issued its latest intelligence, suggesting that no new territorial gains have been made in Ukraine as of 10 July, though “Russian artillery bombardment continued in the northern Donbas sector.” The reports are reflective of the current operational pause and align with our previous assessments and largely explain the relative lack of any significant military developments over the weekend following the capture of Luhansk. During this period of operational pause, Russian troops will be allowed to rest, while more resources and ammunition will be stocked-up for future advances. The coming weeks will, therefore, very likely feature a slower operational tempo in preparation for possible larger assaults.
• Meanwhile, armed hostilities have not stopped, and the operational pause is not a ceasefire, with President Zelensky denying that Moscow has paused in the Donbas, stating that Russia had conducted 34 air strikes since 9 July. Zelensky’s comments came after a Russian strike hit an apartment building in the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk on 9 July, killing at least 18 people, as the Russian forces are trying to move further west towards Kramatorsk. Additionally, on 11 July, the Ukrainian general staff reported that Russian artillery, multiple rocket launchers, and tanks had struck targets in Kharkiv and other cities in the east, though no ground assault was reported north of Kharkiv on 10 July. To that end, on 10 July, Russian artillery strikes reportedly hit targets and locations near Izyum, Barvinkove, Siversks, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhmokamyanske, Serebryanka, Pereizne, Vyimka, Ivano-Darivka, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka, and Sumy. Ground attacks remain limited, in line with the expectations set forth by Russia’s operational pause. Russian forces are concentrating their artillery fire against strategic targets, including railway stations and roads, such as the Chasiv Yar railway station and the E40 Izuym-Slovyansk highway. Such efforts likely seek to increasingly isolate Ukrainian cities and secure key lines of communication.
• Additionally, Ukrainian authorities called on residents of the Kherson region to “evacuate as soon as possible,” warning that residents could be used as human shields by the Russians, stating also that Kyiv intends to “de-occupy” the region. As such, over the weekend, reports of Ukraine continuing to attack Russian supply lines and ammunition storage units in the occupied areas continued, with regional Ukrainian authorities in Kherson alleging that a long-range strike “hit at a military unit of the occupiers”, attributing the allegedly successful strike to “modern Western weapons.” To that end, President Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the US for aiding Ukraine in “countering Russia’s aggression” after Washington announced that it will be providing Kyiv with additional four high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) as part of a new security assistance package of about USD 400 m. The announcement for further military aid notably comes amid the ongoing operational pause, which influential pro-war hawk and former DNR commander Igor Strelkov (real name Girkin), argues will expose Russian vulnerabilities.
• Elsewhere, reports of Russian operational inefficiencies continued over the weekend. For example, Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces had conducted a large-scale missile strike using S-300 surface-to-air (SAM) missiles against ground targets in the Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts on 10 July. Noting the S-300’s inefficacy in the surface-to-surface role, such use may indicate that Russian forces are running low on surface-to-surface missiles or that supply lines remain ineffective.
• Lastly, Russian personnel losses put into question Russia’s ability to increase the operational tempo and war efforts. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) noted that Russian private military companies (PMCs) are bolstering their recruitment efforts to compensate for regular personnel losses. The GUR noted that Russian PMCs are also recruiting prisoners, citing a lack of volunteers. Unless effectively trained and disciplined, there is a realistic possibility that such recruits will lead to greater bloodshed in Ukraine, compounded by ineffective leadership and operational control.

Political developments

• Following last week’s conference in Lugano, where the international community discussed plans for the reconstruction of Ukraine, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he will soon announce a cabinet reshuffle and other reforms, in a bid to root out corruption and maximise government efficiency. The announcement came after Ukraine laid out a reconstruction plan, which relies on hundreds of bns of dollars from the international community. As such, given the anticipated rebuilding costs, the reconstruction process will come under the close scrutiny of various member states, many of which are more and more concerned about adding debt amid a difficult economic situation and rising inflation in Europe. To that end, aid will most likely be linked to anti-corruption and democratic reforms, with Zelensky’s latest announcement underlining that Kyiv anticipates this. Ultimately, however, in the immediate term, Ukraine’s ability to achieve demonstratable progress on these issues will inevitably remain stalled given that the war is still ongoing, but the latest announcement nevertheless represents a step in the right direction.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the global energy markets, stating that whilst western sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, those implementing them will ultimately inflict more harm on their own economies. The comments came in response to discussions by the G7 members regarding further potential sanctions and ways to cap Russian oil revenues, the state’s main revenue source. Moreover, Putin’s warning also came against the backdrop of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline entering a planned ten-day maintenance period today, 11 July, raising fears that Moscow could disrupt gas flows after the work is complete. As such, it is unlikely that further sanctions against Russian energy will be implemented in the immediate term, given that such a move would highly likely prompt Moscow to cut gas supplies entirely, with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stating that a total cut-off is the “most likely scenario”.

FORECAST

In what is almost certain to provoke further retaliation from Russia and drive diplomatic tensions, on 11 July, Lithuania expanded restrictions on rail transport of goods through its territory to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The current expansion of restrictions is due to the next tranche of EU sanctions entering into force, with the ban including wood, alcohol, concrete and alcohol-based industrial chemicals. The move follows the initial decision by Vilnius in June to halt trains transporting goods from Russia to Kaliningrad, reportedly to comply with the EU sanctions. In response, Moscow already warned that they could take “harsh measures” should the transit of goods not resume “within the coming days.” Moreover, the governor of Kaliningrad responded by suggesting a complete ban on the movement of goods between the three Baltic states. Previously, following Lithuania’s decision to block the transit of sanctioned goods, pro-Russian hacktivists responded by launching a series of cyber attacks, with the Lithuanian government reporting on 27 June that several of the country’s state and private websites were subject to Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks (DDoS). The pro-Russian hacktivist group Killnet claimed responsibility, saying that the attacks were in response to Vilnius’ decision to block the transit of certain goods to Kaliningrad. Given that this latest decision will likely further exacerbate tensions over this issue, similar low-level cyber attacks are highly likely in the coming days. Moreover, given that the expansion of trade restrictions comes as the crucial Nord Stream 1 pipeline enters its scheduled ten-day maintenance period, the risk of Russia retaliating by threatening to completely shut off gas supplies will also remain elevated in the week ahead. Lastly, it remains our assessment that it is highly unlikely that Moscow will overtly attack Lithuania, a NATO member state, but an increase in military activity along the Belarusian border, in the Baltic Sea and in Kaliningrad itself is also likely in the coming days and weeks.

Russia: Putin warns of consequences to energy markets, as western leaders debate further sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “catastrophic consequences”, stating that whilst western sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, those implementing them will ultimately inflict more harm on their own economies. The comments came in response to discussions by the G7 members regarding further potential sanctions and ways to cap Russian oil revenues, the state’s main revenue source. Moreover, Putin’s warning also came against the backdrop of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline entering a planned ten-day maintenance period today, 11 July, raising fears that Moscow could disrupt gas flows after the maintenance work is complete. Moreover, last week, Russia demonstrated its willingness and ability to cause oil supply disruptions after a court in Moscow ordered a suspension of operations at Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) for one month. As such, it is unlikely that further sanctions against Russian energy will be implemented in the short term, given that such a move would highly likely prompt Moscow to cut gas supplies even further, if not entirely. (Source: Sibylline)

 

15 Jul 22.  U.S.-Provided HIMARS Effective in Ukraine. American High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems being used in Ukraine are making an impact on the conflict there between Ukrainians fighting to preserve their national sovereignty and Russian forces who have illegally invaded that country.

The M142 HIMARS system allows for the launching of multiple, precision-guided rockets. Already, the U.S. had provided eight of the systems to Ukraine and last week promised to send an additional four, for a total of 12 of the systems.

During a background briefing today at the Pentagon, a senior military official said the Defense Department believes the HIMARS are having an indirect, but significant impact on front line operations.

“I think there has been significant impact on what’s going on, on the front lines,” the official said. “If you think about the fact that the Ukrainians have been talking about a number of the targets are hitting … they’re spending a lot of time striking targets like ammunition, supplies, other logistical supplies, command and control. And all those things have a direct impact on the ability to conduct operations on the front line.  … Although they’re not shooting the HIMARS at the front lines, they are having a very, very significant effect on that.”

The Russians illegally invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The conflict there between the invading Russians and the Ukrainians has been ongoing now for 142 days, the official said. And while the Russians have made some incremental gains, they have been hard earned.

“We assess that Russian forces are limited to incremental if any gains around the northern Donbass, held up by Ukrainian defenses,” the official said. “Russian forces continue to employ indiscriminate artillery bombardment along with air and missile strikes.”

Near Kharkiv, the official said, the Department assesses that the Ukrainians are continuing to defeat Russian attempts to gain ground. The same is also true in the vicinity of Sloviansk.

The same official also said that the Russians have publicly said they’d also like to move on Sloviansk, but still have not been able to do so. (Source: US DoD)

 

12 Jul 22. Russia Seems to Be Running Low on Drones. The Russian military wrote the book on tactical drones in 2014. Now its leaders are begging foreign partners and regional officials to help replace downed UAVs. Russia, which used drones to terrifying effect in its initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, appears in the current campaign to be losing both small and large drones at a rapid pace.

Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration’s national security advisor, said on Monday that Iran was preparing to send “several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline” to Russia. That’s on top of recent reports out of Russia where regional officials have vowed to dig into their general budgets to buy the Russian Army more quadcopters.

Russia has likely lost dozens of their signature strike drone, the Orlan-10, in the early days of the war, said Sam Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and an adviser at the CNA Corporation. They’ve also lost a large percentage of their small fleet of more sophisticated Orion combat drones. He put the losses for the Orion in the single digits but that still makes up a large portion of them.

Sullivan didn’t say what specific drones Russia was seeking from Iran. Tehran is under sanctions of its own, but is still able to manufacture the Shahed-129 and Mohajer 6 heavy-armed drones, the UK’s Royal United Services Institute has said. But if Moscow has requested hundreds of drones, they are probably mostly smaller ones, Bendett said.

“It’s likely that Russians are getting lots of loitering munitions. One of the biggest lessons Russians took from the Nagorno-Karabakh war was that mass use of loitering munitions is key to military success,” he said.

Russia appears to have lost many small tactical drones and quadcopters. In June, the Ukrainian military put the number at more than 600.

It’s gotten so bad that Russia is essentially crowdsourcing quadcopters, similar to the way the Ukranians relied on donated drones from around the world in 2014. Last month, Russian regional officials in Buryatia—a Siberian district far from the action—announced that they would diverte 200m rubles ($3.4m) from the general budget to buy quadcopters, gun sights, and thermal imagers for soldiers on the front lines. Bendett said that these drones would likely be widely available DJI Mavic 2s or 3s.

The announcement, carried on the Russian news site Tayga, says that “such (volunteer) support is provided by all regions of the country, and in large volumes,”  without elaborating further.

That diversion of regional resources to the war effort, under the auspice of patriotic donation, suggests both that Russia’s material losses are beginning to affect the lives of average Russians away from the front lines and also that Russian soldiers are having big problems with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. The small tactical quadcopters they are seeking can’t see more than about five kilometers. The Tayga article quotes one local official who bemoaned the lack of drone equipment for Russia’s troops. “There are a lot of [Russian soldiers from] the republics of Buryatia and Tuva on the front line, precisely standing on the front line. We, they say, are like blind kittens there. We need, they say, quadcopters.”

Said Bendett: “This unusually open critique of front-line capabilities exposes a gap in tactical ISR capabilities…In many ways, such volunteer aid—whether by individuals or by a regional government—underscores the apparent poor state of readiness for some soldiers on the front lines.” (Source: Defense One)

 

15 Jul 22. Ukraine denounces deadly missile strike as war overshadows G20 meeting.

Summary

• At least 23 killed in Russian attack: Ukrainian officials
• Russia denies targeting civilians
• Yellen slams Russian officials at G20 meeting
• Nations pledge to cooperate on war crimes investigations

Senior Western officials directly accused their Russian counterparts of war crimes on Friday after Russian missiles struck a Ukrainian city far behind the frontlines in an attack Kyiv officials said killed at least 23 people.

Ukraine said Thursday’s strike on Vinnytsia, a city of 370,000 people about 200km (125 miles) southwest of the capital Kyiv, had been carried out with Kalibr cruise missiles launched from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called Russia a “terrorist” state, urged more sanctions against the Kremlin and said the death toll in Vinnytsia could rise.

“Unfortunately, this is not the final number. Debris clearance continues. Dozens of people are reported missing. There are seriously injured (people) among those hospitalised,” he said in a video address.

Zelenskiy told an international conference aimed at prosecuting war crimes in Ukraine that the attack had been mounted on “an ordinary, peaceful city”.

“No other state in the world poses such a terrorist threat as Russia,” Zelenskiy said.

Russia reiterated that it does not target civilians in what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, and said its attack struck a military training facility. Reuters could not independently verify battlefield accounts.

Vinnytsia hosts the command headquarters of the Ukrainian Air Force, according to an official Ukrainian military website, a target which Russia used cruise missiles to try to hit in March, the Ukrainian air force said at the time. Ukraine’s state emergency service said three children, including a 4-year-old girl named Lisa, were killed in Thursday’s attack. Another 71 people were hospitalised and 29 others were missing.

It posted a photograph on its Telegram channel of a toy kitten, a toy dog and flowers lying in the grass. “The little girl Lisa, killed by the Russians today, has become a ray of sunshine,” it said.

The attack overshadowed the start of a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Indonesia on Friday, where the top U.S. and Canadian representatives accused Russian officials in attendance of culpability in atrocities.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen condemned Russia’s “brutal and unjust war” and said Russian finance officials shared responsibility. r

“By starting this war, Russia is solely responsible for negative spillovers to the global economy, particularly higher commodity prices,” she said.

Russian officials participating in the meeting were “adding to the horrific consequences of this war through their continued support of the Putin regime”, she added.

“You share responsibility for the innocent lives lost and the ongoing human and economic toll that the war is causing around the world,” she said, addressing the Russian officials.

Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland told Russian officials at the meeting that she held them personally responsible for “war crimes”, a Western official told Reuters.

As Russia pressed its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, the United States and more than 40 other countries agreed on Thursday to coordinate investigations into suspected war crimes.

GHOST TOWN

The war in Ukraine has sent prices soaring for grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertiliser, stoking a global food crisis. Negotiators hope a deal will be signed next week.

The United States took steps on Thursday to facilitate Russian food and fertiliser exports by reassuring banks, shipping and insurance companies that such transactions would not breach Washington’s sanctions on Moscow.

Enabling those Russian exports is a key part of attempts by the United Nations and Turkey to broker a package deal with Moscow that would unlock a blockade on the Black Sea port of Odesa to allow for shipments of Ukrainian grain.

The Kremlin has said that Russia is ready to halt what the West calls Moscow’s unprovoked war of aggression if Kyiv agrees to its conditions, including formally recognising Russia’s control of Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, and the independence of two self-proclaimed Russian-backed statelets in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine has repeatedly said it is unwilling to concede any territory and will take back any land lost by force.

The eastern Ukrainian town of Popasna that fell to Russian forces two months ago is now a ghost town with little sign of life.

A Reuters reporter who visited the town on Thursday found it almost deserted, with nearly all apartment buildings destroyed or heavily damaged.

Former resident Vladimir Odarchenko stood inside his damaged home and surveyed the debris strewn across the floor.

“I have no idea what I’m going to do. Where to live? I don’t know,” he said. (Source: Reuters)

 

11 Jul 22. Five Space Lessons Russia’s Invasion Taught Ukraine. Kyiv now wants its own imagery and comms satellites—and a stealthy way to launch them, a former space agency head says. Mere months ago, Ukraine’s space program struggled to compete for funding and wasn’t seen as integral to national defense–but that’s completely changed now, the former head of its space agency said at the Space Innovation Summit on Monday.

Before Russia’s February invasion, Ukrainian officials viewed space as “not so critical for national defense–that you should not spend a lot of money on space–because it’s expensive, and you should maybe spend on something much more clear, down to Earth. It will be easier to explain after and before the elections,” said Volodymyr Usov, former chairman of the State Space Agency of Ukraine.

Kyiv officials “had years of discussions” but never committed the funding to obtain its own imagery satellites. It was completely reliant on Western partners and commercial imagery from firms like Maxar to show the world what was happening when Russia invaded.

That was the first lesson, Usov said.

“​​Every nation who claims to be independent…needs to have its own [imagery] constellation,” Usov said. Even though partnerships help, “you need to have some autonomous access to satellite imagery.”

The Ukraine War Is Giving Commercial Space an ‘Internet Moment’

Satellite Firms Are Helping Debunk Russian Claims, Intel Chief Says

Lesson two was the need for resilient satellite-based communications. As Russia took out telephone lines, Elon Musk’s Starlink terminals filled in the gaps.

“When you are under the invasion or under war conditions and circumstances, we saw that the first thing that goes down is traditional cable internet,” Usov said. “The only option to connect people to each other was Starlink.”

At one point more than half of Starlink’s global usage came from Ukraine, Usov said.

“You cannot think about a more sustainable way of communicate [connecting] people with each other than having your infrastructure in orbit. Of course, theoretically, it can be destroyed, it can go down. But the resources you need to make this happen is incomparable to the resources you can use to destroy the stations on the ground,” he said.

A third lesson: it’s not just about the satellites. The war has also taught Ukraine it needs its own way to put spacecraft in orbit—and a method that does not highlight to an enemy when a satellite is going up.

“We need to understand that satellites won’t go to orbit on their own,” Usov said. “We need autonomous access to space to make it happen. Autonomous access to space is also connected to ground infrastructure. It’s expensive, it’s complicated, and it’s very visible for potential adversaries.”

He said Ukraine is considering models that disguise launches, such as the Virgin Orbit plane or Northrop Grumman’s similar earlier Pegasus Rocket. Both systems use aircraft to get a satellite aloft, then a rocket booster to put it into low-Earth orbit.

Ukraine is even considering a system that would load the satellite, the booster, and the rocket fuel inside a medium-range aircraft. The rocket would be fueled only after the aircraft takes off, concealing launch plans from foes, Usov said.

“We won’t need a special infrastructure for fueling rockets prior to start … and it can be done on board our medium-range aircraft so nobody will understand the rocket is going out until it’s on the altitude of 10,000 meters.”

A last and critical lesson is that without access to satellite imagery, it would be nearly impossible for Ukraine to report the alleged war crimes that are occurring. The Ukraine war is likely to be the first where the International Criminal Court relies on satellite imagery to prosecute those accused, Usov said.

All this has changed the discussions in Kyiv, Usov said.

“As I talk now to the chairman of the space agency, they’re bringing some new ideas to the National Space Program that will be accepted by the Parliament” to not only build native satellites but be ready to more fully invest with allies and partners in space programs, Usov said.

“Now we see a completely different picture…for military intelligence or just to plan and organize what’s going on on the battlefield, but also to fix all the atrocities being done by Russian army troops. I think that’s almost impossible without having really high precision remote sensing services.” (Source: Defense One)

 

12 Jul 22. Ukrainian rockets hit Russian-controlled area as Kyiv gears up for southern counter-attack.

Summary

• Companies
• Ukraine strikes Russia-controlled Kherson region
• Says it kills 52 Russians, destroys hardware
• Russian-installed official says civilians hurt too
• Says at least seven people killed
• Ukraine planning counter attack to retake south

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had carried out a successful long-range rocket strike against Russian forces in southern Ukraine, territory it says it is planning to retake in a counter-offensive using hundreds of thousands of troops.

According to Ukraine, the strike hit an ammunition dump in the town of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region and killed 52 Russians. It came after Washington supplied Ukraine with HIMARS mobile artillery systems which Kyiv says its forces are starting to use with ever greater efficacy.

A Russian-installed official in Kherson gave a different version. He said at least seven people had been killed in the Ukrainian attack and that civilians and civilian infrastructure had been hit.

Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield accounts.

The area Ukraine struck is one that Russian forces seized after launching on Feb. 24 what Moscow called “a special military operation” and is of strategic importance with Black Sea access, a once thriving agricultural industry, and a location just north of Russian-annexed Crimea.

Ukrainian government officials have spoken of efforts to marshal up to 1m troops and of their aim to recapture southern parts of the country under Russian control which they have said are important for economic and political reasons.

“Based on the results of our rocket and artillery units, the enemy lost 5️2, an Msta-B howitzer, a mortar, and seven armoured and other vehicles, as well as an ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka,” Ukraine’s southern military command said in statement.

Unverified videos posted on social media showed smoke and sparks, followed by an immense fireball erupting into the night sky. Pictures showed rubble strewn across streets and scorched buildings.

Images released by Russian state media showed a wasteland covered in rubble and the remains of buildings.

An official from the Russian-installed local administration said that Ukraine had used HIMARS missiles in the strike and that they had destroyed warehouses containing saltpetre, a chemical compound which can be used to make fertilizer or gunpowder, resulting in a large explosion.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond a request for comment about the kind of weapon used.

Vladimir Leontyev, head of the Russia-installed Kakhovka District military-civilian administration, was cited by Russia’s TASS news agency as saying that at least seven people had been killed in the attack and around 60 wounded.

“There are still many people under the rubble. The injured are being taken to the hospital, but many people are blocked in their apartments and houses,” Leontyev was quoted by TASS as saying.

He was also cited as saying that warehouses, shops, a pharmacy, gas stations and a church had been hit.

Unverified reports on social media said the strike had killed several senior Russian military commanders.

COUNTER ATTACK PLANS

Russia has accused Ukraine of shelling its own people in territory of which it has lost control. Ukraine says it evacuates as many people as possible from areas seized by Russian forces in what it and the West have cast as an unreconstructed attempted imperial-style land grab by Moscow.

Kyiv and the West say Russia’s own strikes have been indiscriminate, killing civilians and levelling city districts.

Moscow denies targeting civilians but many Ukrainian cities, towns and villages have been left in ruins as Europe’s biggest conflict since World War Two grinds towards the five month mark.

Russia has tried to introduce the rouble in Kherson and is offering Russian passports to locals who will take them.

Russian-installed officials say they also plan to hold a referendum on the region becoming part of Russia but have not yet set a date.

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister on Sunday urged civilians in Kherson to urgently evacuate as Ukraine’s armed forces were preparing a counter-attack there.

“It’s clear there will be fighting, there will be artillery shelling… and we therefore urge (people) to evacuate urgently,” Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on national television.

She said she could not say when exactly the counter-offensive would happen.

“I know for sure that there should not be women and children there, and that they should not become human shields,” she said.

Ukraine is itself bracing for what it expects will be a massive new Russian offensive in the east of the country where Moscow says it is determined to take control of all of the industrial Donbas region.

Russian forces have for weeks been shelling parts of the Donetsk region, which is part of Donbas, and are expected to launch an assault on the eastern city of Sloviansk.

After Russia failed to quickly take Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, its forces turned to the Donbas, whose two provinces Donetsk and Luhansk have been partly controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014.

Russia now controls all of the Luhansk region and some of the Donetsk region. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to hand control of the Donbas to the separatists whom Kyiv says are Russian-controlled puppets, a charge they deny. (Source: Reuters)

 

12 Jul 22. CSIS Launches New Ukraine Economic Reconstruction Commission. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) announced the launch of the bipartisan and international Ukraine Economic Reconstruction Commission.

The work of the commission will be led by three experienced cochairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former under secretary of state for democracy and global affairs; Greg Page, former CEO and chairman of Cargill; and Michael Polsky, founder and CEO of Invenergy.

The aim of the commission is to produce a framework for the crucial reforms needed to attract private sector investment to support Ukraine’s economic reconstruction. A successful reconstruction of Ukraine is imperative to upholding values of freedom and democracy and vital to global security. The commission’s work will seek to align with the recently announced Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan, which lays out the Ukrainian government’s plan for recovery. To support the commission, CSIS will convene a series of working groups. These working groups will be led by CSIS scholars and include technical experts from around the world, including Ukraine, and will produce a series of short policy papers on a range of issue-specific areas, including rebuilding the agricultural sector, the energy sector, and transportation and logistics, as well as addressing the impact of corruption on private sector investment.

“It is essential that Ukraine not only defeat Russia’s aggression but promptly rebuild its economy. This timely CSIS commission will work on helping Ukraine’s crucial postwar recovery,” said Paula Dobriansky, commission cochair.

Greg Page, commission cochair, added, “We cannot feed a growing and more prosperous global population in an affordable and sustainable manner without a vibrant Ukrainian agriculture. Reaping the benefit of Ukraine’s vast agrarian potential will require the restoration and enhancement of the transportation and storage infrastructure. We need to think now about how to marshal the necessary resources to make this happen in a timely fashion.”

Commission cochair Michael Polsky also added, “Ukraine has a prosperous future, and Ukraine will be a free member of the community of nations. I’ve spent my whole life breaking the paradigms of what is possible to build a more sustainable world. Part of helping Ukraine rebuild itself into a free and prosperous nation in the years to come will be helping Ukraine rethink how it does business, how it powers its economy and people, and how it connects itself to the world. That is why I am committed to the important work of this commission.”

Daniel F. Runde, senior vice president and director of the Project on Prosperity and Development at CSIS, will direct the commission, which will be composed of a bipartisan group of U.S., European, and Ukrainian experts.

“As Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s unprovoked invasion, the time is ripe to look at how Ukraine’s economy will recover after the war,” said Mr. Runde. He added, “Attracting private sector investment will be critical to securing Ukraine’s place in the Euro-Atlantic world.”

Ukraine’s reconstruction will require collaborative, innovative solutions, as well as significant support from both the private and public sectors. CSIS is proud and excited to facilitate the work of this commission.

 

12 Jul 22. Boris Johnson departure will not affect arms to Ukraine, says UK Nato ambassador. Britain’s leading role in providing weapons to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion will endure, whoever replaces Boris Johnson as prime minister, the country’s ambassador to Nato has said, amid concerns in Kyiv that a successor could fail to match his focus on the war. Johnson’s enthusiastic support for Ukraine was one of the central features of his premiership this year, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had heard news of the prime minister’s decision to step down with “sadness”. “We have played a very significant, leading role in Ukraine. We will continue doing so,” said David Quarrey, the UK’s permanent representative to Nato. “Obviously, I cannot speak for decisions that ministers will make in the future, but it seems that there is very broad support at home for the role that we have played and indeed are continuing to play,” Quarrey told the Financial Times. “It hasn’t just started. And I don’t think it is just about to end.” Eleven contenders are running to replace Johnson after he stepped down as prime minister on Thursday, in a leadership contest that is expected to take at least two months. Defence secretary Ben Wallace, who like Johnson has received credit for Britain’s support to Ukraine, has ruled himself out of the race. (Source: FT.com)

 

11 Jul 22. White House: Iran preparing to supply Russia with drones. The United States believes Iran is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred drones, including some that are weapons capable, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday. Sullivan also said the United States has information that shows Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these drones. (Source: Reuters)

 

11 Jul 22. Ukraine aims to amass ‘million-strong army’ to recapture south, says defence. Ukraine plans a “million-strong army” equipped with Nato weapons to retake the south of the country from occupying Russians, the defence minister says. Retaking the areas around the Black Sea coast was vital to the country’s economy, Oleksii Reznikov said.

However, the comments are more of a rallying cry than a concrete plan, analysts say.

The defence minister’s remarks come as Russia makes progress in taking territory in the eastern Donbas region.

An attack on a block of flats on Sunday killed at least 24 people – with nine people rescued from under the rubble, Ukraine’s state emergency services said.

Rescuers are still looking for survivors at the site of the five-storey building in Chasiv Yar, near the city of Kramatorsk, in the Donetsk region which has been the focus of a Russian push.

In his interview with The Times newspaper, Mr Reznikov praised the UK for being “key” in the transition from providing Ukraine with Soviet-era weapons to Nato-standard air defence systems and ammunition.

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He said weapons deliveries needed to be sped up.

“We need more, quickly, to save the lives of our soldiers. Each day we’re waiting for howitzers, we can lose a hundred soldiers,” he said.

“We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national

However, Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, cautioned against the figure.

“It’s not a m-strong force that will be conducting a counter-attack,” Mr Watling told the BBC.

“Normally you would want operational surprise when you launch a counter-attack, so announcing it publicly is partly about forcing the Russians to have to commit resources more widely to guard against this threat.”

The comments come as three people were killed and 31 wounded after residential areas in the eastern city of Kharkiv were struck by Russian shells, the regional governor said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/BBC)

 

11 Jul 22. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace visits Armed Forces of Ukraine as training programme starts across the UK. The first cohort of Ukrainian soldiers taking part in a major new UK-led military programme, which will train up to 10,000 Ukrainians over the coming months, have arrived in the UK. The programme is part of the UK’s enduring commitment to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, which so far amounts to more than £2.3 bn in military aid and includes more than 5,000 NLAW anti-tank weapons and M270 multiple launch rocket systems.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who visited the training this week, said: “This ambitious new training programme is the next phase in the UK’s support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their fight against Russian aggression. Using the world-class expertise of the British Army we will help Ukraine to rebuild its forces and scale-up its resistance as they defend their country’s sovereignty and their right to choose their own future.”

Around 1,050 UK service personnel are deploying to run the programme, which will take place at MOD sites across the North West, South West and South East of the UK. Each course will last several weeks and will be conducted by elements from 11 Security Force Assistance Brigade.

The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat. Based on the UK’s basic soldier training, the course covers weapons handling, battlefield first aid, fieldcraft, patrol tactics and the Law of Armed Conflict.

The Government has rapidly procured AK variant assault rifles for the training programme, meaning Ukrainian soldiers can train on the weapons they will be using on the front line. This effort was supported by the Welsh Guards, who tested more than 2,400 such rifles in 17 days to ensure they were ready for the Ukrainians to commence their training.

The UK has also gifted clothing and equipment to support Ukrainian soldiers in their training and deployment back to Ukraine. Each soldier will be issued with:

• Personal protective equipment including helmets, body armour, eye protectors, ear protectors, pelvic protection, and individual first aid kits
• Field uniforms and boots
• Cold and wet weather clothing
• Bergens, day sacks and webbing
• Additional equipment required for field conditions including ponchos, sleeping bags, and entrenching tools

The UK has a long history of supporting Ukrainian service personnel through Operation ORBITAL, which trained 22,000 Ukrainians between 2015 and 2022. The new programme will build on this success and demonstrate the UK’s continued leadership in responding to Ukraine’s military requirements as the war evolves. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

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