NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Latest Updates March 21

Early on 20 March, President Volodymyr Zelensky has once again accused Russia of war crimes after the Russian forces bombed an art school where approximately 400 people were taking refuge. The number of potential casualties is currently unknown. The development follows Zelensky’s call on Russia yesterday for new talks, following reports that the Russian forces have entered the centre of Mariupol, underlining the humanitarian disaster and inability to safely evacuate people from the city, which has been cut off from basic supplies such as food, water, and power. Meanwhile, according to British intelligence, Russia will likely continue using heavy firepower on urban areas, which will only drive further civilian casualties.
According to an opinion poll conducted by the Ukrainian sociological group Rating, results published on 20 March reveal that the vast majority of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win a full-scale war against Russia, and consider it unacceptable to sign a temporary peace agreement until Russia withdraws its troops. More specifically, about 93% of respondents believe that Ukraine will succeed in repelling Russian aggression, and 74% support direct talks between Zelensky and Putin; however, 89% do not support a peace deal without the Russian forces first withdrawing from Ukraine. The results underline the relatively high morale amongst Ukrainians, though this is likely to be higher in regions that have not experienced the same level of destruction seen in the east and the southeast of the country.
Meanwhile, Zelensky also announced the suspension of activities of several Ukrainian opposition pro-Russian parties citing martial law, which has been extended in Ukraine until 25 April. In response, the head of State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin called the decision “another mistake of Zelensky”, stating that he believes that this way, Zelensky has “split society.” Russia has traditionally used sympathetic Ukrainian forces to exacerbate divisions within Ukraine to weaken its political structures and prevent closer integration with western institutions, such as the EU and NATO. Although one of Putin’s ultimate goals remains the establishment of a pro-Russia puppet administration in Kyiv, popular support for such political forces is nevertheless relatively low, with resistance against the occupation continuously noted in Kherson, a predominantly Russian-speaking region in southern Ukraine.
Unconfirmed Ukrainian intelligence reports noted today that opposition to Putin is allegedly forming amongst Russia’s economic and political elites. The unconfirmed reports suggest that these elites are considering the possibility of “poisoning, sudden illness, or accident” to remove Putin from power and restore economic ties with the West. Reportedly also, a part of Russia’s elite sees FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov as Putin’s potential successor. With the West continuing to apply unprecedented economic pressure on Russia and targeting oligarchs close to the Kremlin, the internal pressure is only likely to grow, with more and more elites potentially growing increasingly disgruntled. Nevertheless, it remains unlikely in the short term that the oligarchs in particular will turn against Putin, though the likelihood of attempts to remove him may well increase the longer the war drags on without a conclusive victory on Russia’s part, but amid significant costs both in terms of casualties and economic deterioration.
An intensification of fighting in western, north-western and eastern Kyiv, as well as northern Ukraine, is apparent as of 1300 GMT today. The village of Pryvar in Zhytomyr oblast, just north of Kyiv, has been completely destroyed by air strikes according to eyewitness reports as of 1200 GMT. Air strikes on the town of Makariv on the E40 west of Kyiv killing several civilians late on 19 March. Shelling in Irpin continues as of 0800 GMT on 20 March, with Russian MLRS strikes and drone attacks in the vicinity of Moschun and Novi Petrivtsi in northern and north-western Kyiv as of 1200 GMT today.
The extension of the conflict into western Ukraine remains a viable threat, with air raid sirens sounding as of 1240 GMT in the town of Khmelnytskyi on the westbound P32, and a Russian missile strike on the western town of Kamianka-Buzka, just north of Lviv, earlier this morning. This comes as President Zelensky warned early this morning that the Ukrainian government now considers an invasion from Belarus in western Ukraine a serious threat.
Furthermore, we specifically note that the Russian Ministry of Defence continues to accuse Ukrainian authorities of preparing a false-flag attack of an unspecified nature on Western diplomats in Lviv. The extension of the conflict to Lviv is now a viable risk following an uptick in air strikes and missile attacks in western Ukraine over the past week.

FORECAST

The humanitarian catastrophe in Mariupol continues to worsen following yet another shelling of a building sheltering hundreds of civilians. Additionally, despite Russian aggression, latest opinion polls suggests that the majority of Ukrainians support the government’s current strategy, demanding the withdrawal of the Russian forces before signing a peace deal and oppose concessions. Meanwhile, Ukraine is expecting to receive the next delivery of US weapons in the coming days, this will remain a trigger to watch as Russia may increase its targeting of military facilities in western Ukraine to discourage further shipments of weaponry. Furthermore, Ukraine’s intelligence also stated today that the threat of an offensive from Belarus in the Volyn region is high, with departure of 11 members of the Belarusian embassy in Ukraine, including the ambassador, on 19 March indicative of a potentially heightened threat of a Belarusian engagement. Regarding evacuation and safe passage out of Kyiv and into western Ukraine, as of 20 March, the southbound H01/P01 remains a comparatively safer route for access to/exit from Kyiv. However, an uptick in drone and missile fire in north-western Kyiv highlights the ongoing risk posed to any evacuation routes out of Kyiv. The P32 westbound from Bila Tserkva currently remains the safest major westbound road out of Kyiv. However, air raid sirens in Khmelnytskyi – a western town also on the P32 toward Lviv – highlights the increasing risk of the conflict’s spread into western Ukraine, and we reiterate that safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes at present. Russian armour and infantry units continue to be dispersed north and south of the E373 and the E40, and as such, these routes remain unsafe. The advance around Kyiv remains largely stalled at the time of writing, but an uptick in Russian MLRS and drone strikes in north-western Kyiv this weekend indicate that Russian forces may be regrouping for a more substantive push over the coming week. We assess that the south-west of the city remains highly unsafe, and that further fighting is expected in the areas of Fastiv, Obukhiv and Byshev Airport on the westbound P04. No fighting in the airport’s premises has been observed as of this Alert’s publication, but we consider this to be a likely target for Russian forces. In comparative terms, therefore, the H01/P01 remains the safest route out of the city, although any travel is undertaken at one’s own risk as all approaches to Kyiv are vulnerable to shelling or missile strikes.

SOCMINT indicates ad-hoc checkpoints and stop-and-search checks by Ukrainian rear echelon units continue to take place on the P02, P69, M07 circular and H01/P01 in Kyiv. These are likely conducted in order to identify potential Russian fifth columnists/saboteurs, and Ukrainian units conducting these checks are believed to be operating on capture/kill orders. As such those seeking to leave/enter Kyiv should treat such checks with due caution. Finally, we note increasing (unverified) accounts shared on social media of Russian forces firing indiscriminately on private vehicles on westbound routes into Kyiv, highlighting increased desperation on the part of Russian units in the area, but equally highlighting the severe risk to life posed by travelling on westbound routes into Kyiv at present.

Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed a crowd of reportedly about 100,000 at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow yesterday during a pro-government event designed to celebrate the eighth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Reports from the event indicate that many people were forced to attend, whilst others, such as state employees, were bussed in and/or paid to attend. During his speech, Putin defended Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling it a “special military operation”, and accused Ukraine of committing “genocide” – a narrative initially used to justify the invasion. Whilst emphasising “unity”, many pro-Kremlin speakers at the event also wore orange-and-black ribbons in the shape of a “Z”, a new symbol which the authorities are increasingly promoting across all layers of society in a bid to drum up popular support for the war. Meanwhile, those expressing opposition to the war are coming under increased pressure, with intimidation tactics likely to only intensify as the war persists.
A 38-hour curfew will take place at 1600 (local time) in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, which is an important route for those that escaped from Mariupol. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia have reportedly also agreed on 10 humanitarian corridors to evacuate citizens that are currently trapped. More specifically, the opening of a humanitarian corridor was announced today in Luhansk region, starting at 0900 local time. While yesterday more than 2,000 civilians were able to evacuate from Mariupol through an agreed humanitarian corridor, with the risk of attacks by Russian ground forces remaining high. Lastly, ten humanitarian corridors will also include cities in the Luhansk and Kherson oblasts and several cities northwest of Kyiv. Delivery of aid is also expected. However, as seen previously, their safety cannot be guaranteed, with shelling persisting throughout the morning. At the same time, around 450,000 people are facing a dire humanitarian situation in Sumy, Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk as electricity, medicine, water, and food supplies are completely disrupted in these areas.
Military infrastructures, including radio and electronic intelligence centres, were attacked in Velikiy Dalnyk and Velykodolynske, west of Odesa, with Russia’s SS-C-5 Stooge (Bastion) coastal defence missile system, according to statements by the Russian Ministry of Defence. The attack follows previous attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructures and highly likely aims to maintain pressure on Odesa while Russian advances remain stalled further in the east around Mykolaiv.
Russian ground forces have continued the shelling of towns in Zytomyr Oblast, targeting Budo-Vorobyi, Piskivka and Myhalky northwest of Kyiv along the M07. Otherwise, Russian advances towards Kyiv have remained mainly stalled for the past 72 hours, corroborating previous analysis that Russian ground forces face serious supply challenges and as a result are resorting to attrition for now instead of a major assault on the capital city.
Russian officials reported that they fired hypersonic missiles at a missiles and ammunition depot near Deliatyn in western Ukraine for the first time on 19 March, which follows reports based on Ukrainian intelligence suggesting that Russia’s precision cruise missiles reserves are depleting.
It is now confirmed that General Roman Gavrilov, Deputy Chief of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia), has resigned on 17 March, with some media reports indicating that he has been detained by the Federal Security Service (FSB) for alleged leaks of military information and corruption. This comes after President Putin has placed two prominent FSB officials, Colonel General Sergei Beseda and his deputy, under house arrest in recent weeks. They were detained for misusing operational funds, signalling that the Kremlin potentially underestimated the impact of widespread corruption across both its military and security services, contributing to the challenges the Russian military is facing in its war in Ukraine.
Of note, repairmen of NPC Ukrenergo have reportedly restored a 750 kV high-voltage power line Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Kakhovska. Two of the four were damaged earlier, and the plant lost connection to a third line last week, which the Ukrainian regulator said was expected to be reconnected on 22 March to the plant. As of now all safety systems remain fully functional and there are no related concerns.
Italy has approved an EUR 4.4bn (USD 4.9bn) package to contrast the effects the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including specific measures addressing the spiked energy prices. The spending should alleviate the growing costs of living for 5.2 million families without widening the budget deficit. Unanimously approved by the Council of Ministers, it also aims to diversify the IT services of public administrations so that IT security technology businesses linked to Russia will be unable to provide their products and services. The move underscores Italy’s significant cyber security concerns following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Lastly, EU officials are reportedly discussing the possibility of using the assets of sanctioned Russian oligarchs to support Ukraine’s war recovery efforts, though no decision on the matter has yet been made. Though the EU has expanded the sanctions package to target oligarchs close to Putin, freezing their assets in hopes that this class of elites will exert domestic pressure, it remains very unlikely that the oligarchs will turn against Putin in the short term. Additionally, in a bid to exert even more economic pressure on Russia, Poland called on the EU to implement a total ban on trade with Russia. Whilst the sanctions and unprecedented exodus of corporations from Russia have put an enormous strain on the Russian economy, President Putin nevertheless stated that the “economic blitzkrieg” waged by the West, has failed, underlining the inability of harsh economic measures to deter Putin from his current path. Nevertheless, further suggestions of such sanction will only reinforce the Kremlin’s anti-Western rhetoric to rally support domestically, whilst portraying the West as the aggressor against Russia, which will subsequently also increase the risk of this translating into hostility to foreign investment inside Russia.

FORECAST

On 19 March, Zelensky called for new talks with Moscow, following Russian claims that its forces have reportedly entered the centre of Mariupol, which has been under heavy shelling for days and is a site of a humanitarian disaster. Reports of street fighting will also undermine attempts to rescue civilians many of whom are still trapped following the shelling of a theatre on 16 March. Previous negotiations between the two sides have however so far failed to result in a breakthrough, with the Kremlin previously also downplaying reports that substantial progress has been achieved. As such, the British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss accused Russia of using the talks with Ukraine as a “smoke screen” to prepare for more “atrocities,” stating that she was “very sceptical” of the talks. Additionally, with Mariupol unable to withstand the siege, Ukraine is now effectively cut off from access to the Sea of Azov, underlining a notable setback and highlighting Russia’s strategic gains in south-eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, intimidation of perceived opponents of the war will only intensify across Russia, with media reports suggesting that the “Z” symbol has been spray painted on anti-war activists’ properties, and others have been fined under the new law which prohibits anyone from referring to Russia’s actions in Ukraine as a “war.” Lastly, with the sanctions already putting great strain on the Russian economy, the risk of hostility towards foreign investment and companies in Russia perceived to be anti-war, will only increase as the war continues to unfold. Regarding evacuation and safe passage out of Kyiv and into western Ukraine, as of 19 March, the southbound H01 remains a comparatively safer route for access to/exit from Kyiv, then connecting with westbound roads such as the P32 through Bila Tserkva. Considering that Russia has launched several missiles into Kyiv this week, the threat of air attacks remains significant, underlining the fact that no routes are considered safe anymore in and around Kyiv.

Russian armour and infantry units continue to be dispersed north and south of the E373 and the E40, and as such, these routes remain unsafe. The advance around Kyiv remains largely stalled at the time of writing. Whilst we do not anticipate a large surge by Russian mechanised forces around the west/south-west of Kyiv, we assess that the south-west of the city remains highly unsafe and that further fighting is expected in the areas of Fastiv, Obukhiv and Byshev Airport on the westbound P04. No fighting in the airport’s premises has been observed as of this Alert’s publication, but we consider this to be a likely target for Russian forces. In comparative terms, therefore, the H01/P01 remains the safest route out of the city, although any travel is undertaken at one’s own risk as all approaches to Kyiv are vulnerable to shelling or missile strikes.

Iran: Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Provides Impetus For New Nuclear Deal

The United Kingdom has settled a debt of GBP400m with Iran “in parallel” to the release of two British hostages from Iran after months of significant diplomatic negotiations. The debt related to a deal from the 1970s in which the UK was to deliver 1,500 Chieftain tanks and other vehicles to Iran. However, Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 resulted in fewer than 200 tanks being delivered. The issue had remained a major point of contention during diplomatic discussions in recent years.

Settlement is an indication of shifting foreign policy priorities amid Russian invasion

Officials have suggested that the debt settlement is separate from ongoing developments in Ukraine and the associated impact on global energy markets. However, the UK government deal is more likely indicative of short-term pressures to secure energy flows outside of Russia. Efforts to make the GBP 400 million payment may have also stemmed from strategic considerations, as ongoing shifts in the Gulf and wider Middle East region could force Western foreign policy realignment vis-à-vis Iran (Israeli-Arab deals under the Abraham accords and Iran-Saudi Arabia talks brokered by Iraq, to name two). Notably, Iran’s oil could foreseeably be a significant energy source in the event of a new nuclear deal and the lifting of sweeping sanctions.

It is worth noting that while senior US officials have criticised the UK deal, there is a realistic possibility that there was tacit approval beforehand, or at least greatly reduced pressure from Washington on the UK to reject Iranian demands of repayment. This would suggest fresh impetus to secure a new nuclear deal with Iran, as Russian aggression far outstrips Western concerns relating to Tehran. Crucially for the US and its allies, a new nuclear agreement would also be an opportunity to draw Iran away from Russia and China, another longer-term concern for Western interests in the wider region, with Iran last year signing a 25-year strategic agreement with Beijing.

A new nuclear deal with Iran amid global instability: risk vs reward

Against the backdrop of the recent UK-Iran deal, Iran has also reportedly started to convert some of its highly enriched uranium into material for medical purposes, as opposed to further enrichment to weapons-grade material, a further indication of potential de-escalation as the Russian threat overtakes Western-Iranian hostilities. With the Ukraine conflict forcing more pragmatic approaches from parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, recent developments could prove to be key to unblocking current talks. Further Iranian concessions regarding UN nuclear watchdog access would also be strong indicators of a more conciliatory Iranian approach.

While renewed nuclear commitments from Iran would be a victory for Western signatories who currently seek to keep oil flowing, there is the considerable risk of blowback from Iran’s foes, chiefly Israel. Alongside the potential for escalatory tit-for-tat hostilities between Israel and Iran should a deal fail to address Israeli concerns regarding Iran’s ballistic missile programmes, a new nuclear deal could also upset already strained US-UK ties with Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent the UAE, other potentially vital sources of oil in the coming months and beyond. Iran-linked aerial attacks this year have already struck Abu Dhabi, Erbil and several locations across Saudi Arabia. And an emboldened and somewhat sanction-free Iran may be able to provide oil, but could also entrench Iranian influence and aggression from Lebanon and Syria to Yemen.

On 17 March, industry reports claimed that Cyclops Blink malware is being used to target Asus routers. On 23 February, US and UK cyber security officials linked Cyclops Blink to the Moscow-backed hacking group Sandworm, who is most well-known for launching the 2017 NotPetya ransomware attack that resulted in “billions of dollars worth of damage” to companies across the globe” (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 24 February 2022). Cyber security researchers have claimed that the WatchGuard Firebox and Asus devices compromised by this malware “do not belong to critical organisations, of those that have an evident value on economic, political, or military espionage”. However, these devices could still be utilised to build an infrastructure for future cyber attacks, such as distributed denial-of-service (DDoS), against high profile targets, such as those in Ukraine’s energy or water-related sectors.
On 17 March, data leak site Distributed Denial of Secrets (DDoSecret) allegedly published 79GB of data stolen from Omega company, the research and development wing of Russian state-owned energy firm Transneft. While further details regarding this campaign, including the data theft’s identity, are limited, DDoSecret claims this incident was inspired by a statement that former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made in February which encouraged hacktivists to target the Russian government in support of Ukraine. This campaign is one of the most notable pro-Ukraine cyber attacks launched against Russian firms since Anonymous claimed on 14 March to have successfully compromised Russian state energy company Rosneft’s German subsidiary.
The Courts of Arbitration in several Russian regions, including Moscow, Sakhalin, Yakutia, and Tomsk, disclosed on 16 March that their websites were compromised by defacement attacks. These attacks reportedly inserted a link that sent users to an online post that demanded the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin. While no cyber threat actor has claimed responsibility, this incident is consistent with the growing number of cyber attacks launched by pro-Ukraine hackers, such as Ukraine’s IT Army and Anonymous, in recent weeks. For example, Anonymous claimed on 3 March that it has hacked over 2,500 websites linked to the Russian and Belarusian government in support of Kyiv (See Sibylline Biweekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 15 March).
On 15 March, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation warned that Russian state-backed hackers exploited misconfigured default multifactor authentication (MFA) settings to gain access to an undisclosed NGO’s network. The hackers used credentials compromised in a brute-force attack to access one of the NGO’s inactive user accounts. This threat actor then exploited MFA firm Duo’s default configuration settings to access their victim’s network and exfiltrate data from its cloud storage and email accounts. The lack of details regarding the victim’s identity and the type of data targeted during this campaign makes it difficult to analyse the strategic intent of the attack. However, this discovery has emerged amid growing concerns that Moscow may start targeting organisations in Western states, such as the US, over their support for Kyiv during the Ukraine conflict.
Members of the Anonymous hacktivist group claimed on 15 March to have compromised the website of the Russian state-owned nuclear energy firm Rosatom. This firm is allegedly controlling Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainian nuclear power plant seized by Russian military forces in early March (see Sibylline Ukraine Update 1100hrs GMT 04-03-2022). Anonymous claimed to have made Rosatom’s site inaccessible while also stealing “gigabytes of data”. A Twitter account linked to the hacktivist group claimed that they will “soon” begin leaking the stolen data.

Forecast

Russia’s utilisation of cyber space remains limited as of 18 March, despite Moscow’s flurry of disruptive attacks during the initial phase of the Ukraine conflict. However, the Sandworm-led campaign against Asus and WatchGuard Firebox devices could be a potential indicator that Russia is preparing to launch another wave of disruptive cyber attacks. More specifically, Russian hackers could direct the routers compromised in this campaign to launch DDoS attacks against entities operating in Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, such as in energy or water-related sectors. The likelihood of this scenario emerging is reinforced by the Netherland’s Military Intelligence and Security Service’s (MIVD) 3 March disclosure that Dutch routers from individuals and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were hacked by Sandworm in early 2022 (see Sibylline Cyber Daily Analytical Update – 4 March 2022). While the MIVD could not confirm whether these hacks were linked to the Ukraine conflict, the timing of these compromises indicates that they were likely used in the February DDoS attacks that preluded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (See Sibylline Ukraine Update – 1400hrs GMT 24-02-2022). Any future attacks launched through this means will most likely be targeted against entities linked to the Ukrainian government and aimed at supporting Moscow’s ongoing assaults on major cities, such as Kyiv.

Meanwhile, pro-Ukraine hacking groups have continued to launch cyber attacks during this monitoring period aimed at either disrupting Russia’s military offensives or state-affiliated entities’ operations. The most active group during this conflict has remained Anonymous, with its attack against Rosatom underlining its continued targeting of Russia’s critical infrastructure. While cyber security researchers have continued to raise concerns about the hacktivist group’s limited technical capabilities, a recent investigation of 100 Russian databases, including the Commonwealth of Independent States’ site (CIS), allegedly targeted by Anonymous found that 92 had been compromised. Despite this discovery, there is little indication that this leaked data poses a significant concern to Russia’s ongoing operations in Ukraine. Nevertheless, with the Ukraine conflict unlikely to abate in the immediate future, there is a high likelihood of further such pro-Ukraine cyber attacks being launched in the coming days in support of Kyiv. Any such attacks are expected to be low-level “quick and easy” attacks that have little to no impact on the targeted organisations’ infrastructure and operations.

Sanctions have continued to be announced this week, but not nearly at such a fast pace as last week. This week, on 15 March, Russia announced its first set of retaliatory sanctions. These were focused on the US and Canada. Russia placed travel bans and the majority of the Canadian parliament, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Sanctions against US individuals included President Biden and former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton. Notably, no Republicans were named. These sanctions are largely symbolic from Russia, and will have little to no impact on either Russia’s or the American and Canadian economies. Nor will these sanctions have any long standing meaningful political implication. However, we do expect to see more sanctions from Russia, most likely against other politicians in other jurisdictions sanctioning Russia.

Speculation is now rising about sanctions being lifted should peace talks between Ukraine and Russia reach a mutually satisfying conclusion. When the war comes to an end, there is an expectation that sanctions will be lifted, and if Ukraine, and therefore the international community, accept the annexation of Crimea by Russia, this ought to include sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctioning governments have said that restrictions will be lifted, however what that looks like is yet unclear.

Within the UK there have long been calls to limit Russian oligarchs’ access to property and other facilities. The seizure of Russian owned jets and super yachts across Europe have been met with applause – these being symbols of the unfair Russian regime and proof that theft and underhand business methods will result in reward. Now that many of these oligarchs have been listed by the UK, EU and the US it will be hard to justify to the UK public why these oligarchs should have their “stolen” assets and “ill gotten gains” restored. There will likely be public pressure, in such an instance, for the UK authorities to investigate how these individuals amassed their fortunes, and we could see greater use of Unexplained Wealth Orders in order to clarify ownership as well as help justify returning property. Lifting sanctions on companies and sectors in order for UK companies to again participate in trade will be much easier.

However, until Russia and Ukraine reach an acceptable peace agreement sanctions will remain, and will continue to develop, especially if the situation does not improve and Russian aggression grows. As this is unlikely in the short term, the war in Ukraine, will continue to exacerbate the world’s supply chain crisis. As the UK, the EU and latterly, the United States, closed their airspace to Russian aircraft, Moscow has responded by closing off its airspace – signalling the loss of the vital link to cargo carriers transiting between Europe and Asia. Aircraft will now have to fly the southerly route requiring a refuelling stop in one of the Gulf states, adding delays, crew time and fuel costs.

The Covid-19 pandemic has already caused multiple headaches for the aviation world. Half of all air freight is transported in the luggage holds of passenger airliners. Many of these aircraft and routes have been grounded since early 2020, causing an extreme capacity issue for air freight and contributing to even higher costs. What’s more, a significant portion of the air cargo market relies on Russian and Ukrainian companies including Air Bridge Cargo (Russia) and the Ukrainian firm Antonov Airlines, whose headquarters is the strategic Hostomel Airport north-west of Kyiv. On 24 February, the world’s largest commercial cargo plane, the Antonov AN-225, was destroyed by Russian Forces. Known as “Mriya” (the Dream), the aircraft had six engines and was the only one example of its kind to be completed. Beloved by aviation enthusiasts, news of the aircraft’s loss came as a blow, particularly as it played a vital role in 2020 transporting much-needed PPE around the world.

Early this morning, 18 March, at least six cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet struck an aircraft repair plant near Lviv airport in the far west of the country. While Lviv’s mayor has reported no casualties, the attack underlines the growing threat posed to Western Ukraine and Lviv, where large numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) are located. The attack comes after a similar strike targeted an aircraft repair plant in Lutsk, underlining increasing efforts by Russian forces to undermine the Ukrainian Air Force’s maintenance of its aircraft. The attack comes as Russian forces continue to make limited progress on most fronts, with the US Department of Defense stating late on 17 March that there had been relatively little activity over the last 24 hours beyond a number of Ukrainian counter attacks. However, fighting continues to remain heavier in the Donbas, where Russian forces are making slow but steady progress after reportedly taking Rubizhne on the approach to Lysychansk. Furthermore, intense fighting continues in Mariupol, where the Russian Ministry of Defence has claimed today that their forces are now fighting in the centre of the city. For further details relating to the most recent military developments, see our Daily Guidance Bulletin.
On 17 March, the US Defense Intelligence Agency published a new assessment that warns the Kremlin is likely to rely more heavily on nuclear deterrence should Ukrainian resistance continue to stall the Russian offensive. Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, stated that a protracted war and occupation in Ukraine would sap Russian conventional strength, with the impact of Western sanctions undermining Moscow’s ability to produce more precision-guided munitions to sustain operations over a longer period. As a result, Russia will increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to signal the West and project strength to its internal and external audiences. This mirrors our own assessment that the longer the war drags on, the more likely Russia will feel the need to signal willingness to escalate, particularly if Russia is unable to stop or sufficiently disrupt Western arms shipments to Ukrainian forces. Moscow has continuously alleged Ukraine poses a potential nuclear threat to Russia, with further accusations made earlier during the invasion that the US and Ukraine are collaborating on a biological weapons programme. Such accusations continue to loom large in Russian rhetoric, and as such the risk remains that this could be paving the way for the use of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) weapons in Ukraine – either as a false-flag attack, or an overt deployment by Russian forces.
The Russian human rights organisation OVD-Info has claimed that the Russian Ministry of the Interior and Federal Security Service (FSB) have received orders to check up on all Ukrainian citizens currently living in Moscow. OVD-Info cited two Ukrainians living in Moscow as their source, but this remains unconfirmed at this time. According to the OVD-Info account, police and FSB officers have phoned up and come to the homes of Ukrainian citizens, asking whether they have any “forbidden literature” or “nationalist symbols”, whether they have attended any rallies, as well as requiring information on family twith whom hey keep in contact wn Ukraine. FSB officers have furthermore reportedly offered some Ukrainians a fast-track to Russian citizenship, while others have reportedly had petty charges relating to anti-social behaviour brought against them. While unverified at this time, such reports align with our earlier forecasts and assessments as to likely forms of harassment of Ukrainian citizens and other nationalities seen as a potential national security risk. Increased FSB surveillance and censorship will mean communications in and out of country will remain at acute risk of interception, particularly involving foreigners and Ukrainian citizens perceived as potential opponents of the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today, 18 March, told Russians that there was no need to panic buy staples such as sugar, buckwheat and toilet roll. The statement comes as prices continue to rise at record rate and reports of increasingly widespread shortages appear across the country. The price of sugar has increased by over 15% over the last two weeks, with Peskov stating that the government had “not formed a position” on whether to create a government sugar monopoly to control prices. Various export bans are already in place for certain agricultural goods, and if panic buying takes hold and shortages worsen, it remains likely that the government will attempt to introduce price caps and/or controls over critical supplies. In related developments, the Russian Central Bank today confirmed that interest rates will not rise further for the time being, following the historic increase to 20% just after the invasion.
However, the war is also exacerbating a mounting shortage problem in Ukraine. The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) stated on 18 March that food supply chains in Ukraine were “collapsing”, with the destruction of infrastructure and insecurity of supply routes meaning shops and warehouses are standing empty. The WFP buys almost half of its total wheat supply from Ukraine, which remains one of the most important grain exporters in the world. Global food prices are already at an all-time high, and the likely disruption of the Ukrainian harvest later this year will force food insecure regions to source grain exports elsewhere, at increased prices. As a result, the knock-on impact of the war in Ukraine on global food security is likely to be significant in the coming months, compounding inflation and other living standard pressures, particularly in import-dependent regions such as the Middle East and North Africa.
President Vladimir Putin today, 18 March, accused Ukrainian negotiations of stalling talks, claiming that Kyiv is putting forward “more and more unrealistic proposals”. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has once again reiterated warnings that weapons convoys supplying Ukraine will be viewed as “legitimate targets” by Russian forces. Lavrov also singled out the shipment of Soviet-era S-300 air defence systems from Bulgaria to Ukraine as “impossible”, stating “Moscow will not allow it”. These statements will thus compound the threat of further strikes in Western Ukraine following the attack at Lviv airport overnight, but also underlines the enduring, if relatively low at present, threat of an attack outside of Ukrainian territory to intercept and prevent shipments of weapons systems.
Thousands in Russia are attending a pro-Kremlin rally at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow to celebrate the eighth anniversary of Crimea’s annexation. Unconfirmed reports suggest that many state employees have reportedly been bussed in for the event – a common strategy in Russia and other post-Soviet states – to drum up support for the war. Additionally, as noted in previous reporting, the state’s focus on propagating the “Z” symbol is increasingly growing, as the authorities shut down more and more independent and international information outlets and launch their campaign to gain and maintain popular support for the invasion. As such, with unconfirmed reports already indicating that activists who do not support the war, are being targeted and accused of treason, the risk of various intimidation against individuals perceived to be anti-Russia will only increase as the regime steps up its promotion of the “Z” campaign.

FORECAST

Today, 18 March, US President Joe Biden was due to talk to Chinese Premier Xi Jinping at around 1300 GMT, where he had reportedly warned Beijing against supporting Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The call follows a 14 March meeting between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi. Additionally, just hours prior to the Biden-Xi call, China’s aircraft carrier Shandong sailed through the Taiwan Strait whilst being followed by a US guided missile destroyer. So far, Beijing has maintained a somewhat ambiguous stance on the Ukraine war. This has led US officials to desire clarification on China’s position amid reports that Moscow has requested military and financial assistance, which the European Union has stated today it has “very reliable evidence” that Beijing is considering providing such assistance. Nevertheless, at time of writing Beijing’s position remains unclear. Yesterday, 17 March, China’s ambassador to Ukraine praised the strength of the Ukrainian people and promised never to attack Ukraine. However, this comes after Beijing has in recent days amplified Russia’s claims that the US and Ukraine have been cooperating in a biological weapons programme, with Chinese media maintaining a consistent anti-West narrative. Amid this ambiguity, Biden is expected to warn Xi that Beijing will “pay a price” if it supports Russian military operations in Ukraine and/or helps Moscow circumvent Western sanctions, threatening to impose fresh sanctions on Beijing. Today’s call between Biden and Xi is thus likely to be a tense indicator as to Beijing’s readiness to support Russia and whether the financial fallout from sanctions will spread beyond Russia to China.

Regarding evacuation and safe passage out of Kyiv and into western Ukraine, as of 18 March, the southbound H01 remains a comparatively safer route for access to/exit from Kyiv, then connecting with westbound roads such as the P32 through Bila Tserkva. Considering that Russia has launched several missiles into Kyiv this week, the threat of air attacks remains significant, underlining the fact that no routes are considered safe anymore in and around Kyiv.

Russian armour and infantry units continue to be dispersed around the forests north and south of the E40, and as such, this route remains unsafe. However, the advance around Kyiv remains largely stalled at the time of writing. Whilst we do not anticipate a large surge by Russian mechanised forces around the west/south-west of Kyiv, we assess that the south-west of the city remains highly unsafe and that further fighting is expected in the areas of Fastiv, Obukhiv and Byshev Airport on the westbound P04. No fighting in the airport’s premises has been observed as of this Alert’s publication, but we consider this to be a likely target for Russian forces. In comparative terms, therefore, the H01/P01 remains the safest route out of the city, although any travel is undertaken at one’s own risk as all approaches to Kyiv are vulnerable to shelling or missile strikes.

The key development overnight was the attack on aviation maintenance facilities in Lviv, the city in the west which has – so far – been seen largely as a safe haven from the conflict. The strike was by six cruise missiles fired from the Black Sea, two of which are claimed to have been destroyed by air defences, leaving four visually confirmed hits. It is likely that the facility has been rendered beyond repair, based on current reporting.
The strike follows last week’s attack on similar aviation facilities in Lutsk, reinforcing our assessment that Russia would use its remaining precision capabilities to strike select targets in the West of Ukraine. Primary objectives will continue to be to degrade the remaining Ukrainian air force assets operating under a level of air-defence protection from this zone, and also to cause attrition to the flow of supplies from NATO and EU countries that are helping to reinforce Kyiv.
By contrast, cities that are more immediate objectives – such as Dnipro and Kramatorsk – have received more random attacks over recent days, seemingly designed in part to add to the flow of refugees from the country. This has now reached over 3.5mn people, with over 2mn going to Poland alone. Initial assessments of 4-4.5mn refugees from the conflict therefore appear on track, although further actions in the West of Ukraine may well prompt more to depart – and this estimate to be exceeded. The Kremlin is aware of the pressure this is putting on European infrastructure and politics, and will likely continue to weaponise the humanitarian situation in various ways.
In this vein, the Russian move towards grinding down resistance in cities using artillery fire also continued over the last 24 hours, with Mariupol remaining the primary focus. However, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv also received significant bombardments. Kyiv also was struck again but mainly by rocket and missile fire, with recent Ukrainian advances having pushed back some Russian artillery preparations, and so damage was comparatively light. Maintaining distance from Russian guns will likely remain a key objective for the defenders of Kyiv, aided by the nature of the terrain to the west of the city, although this remains a harder objective in the more open eastern areas.
We continue to consider that the fall of Sumy and in due course Chernihiv will be required in order for Russia to intensify operations east of the capital. Despite heavy bombardment, neither objective seems imminent, and there are few signs of an assault. Kharkiv remains under pressure although the main Russian effort in that region appears to be to bypass with armoured forces and push south-west.
Mariupol still remains the city most likely to fall in coming days, with Russian forces now occupying 30-50% of the eastern and western outskirts. The fighting is steady, but Russia continues to use tactics that are (comparatively) minimising casualties. This is shown by a slowing in the rate of assessed deaths on the Russian side, although this continues to be above the 3:1 attacker to defender ratio, indicating continued poor performance. Tactical challenges will persist for Russian forces.
Russia’s main objective at present remains the closure of several encirclements in the Donbas. One small one is north of Mariupol, a similar one is forming around Severodeonetsk, and the largest seems to be planned around Kramatorsk – hence the targeting of that city this morning. This will nominally cut off large numbers of Ukrainian forces in due course, although this will not guarantee their destruction given the area Russia will have to cover. Nonetheless, Moscow will see this as a highly significant victory. The completion of this plan depends on the fall of Mariupol to free up combat forces.
Meanwhile, the attack on Mikolayiv has stalled following admitted supply problems for Russia, potentially linked to a significant strike on the airfield at Kherson. Russian forces have withdrawn from the city but continue to probe north along the west bank of the Dnieper, making good progress and complicating the defence of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. Amphibious probes on Odesa will continue as a distraction, but this remains a distant objective at this time.

Russia: State-affiliated entities will remain prime targets for hacktivists over the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

On 17 March, data leak site Distributed Denial of Secrets (DDoSecret) allegedly published 79GB of data stolen from Omega company, the research and development wing of Russian state-owned energy firm Transneft. While further details regarding this campaign, including the data theft’s identity, are limited, DDoSecret claims this incident was inspired by a statement that former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made in February which encouraged hacktivists to target the Russian government in support of Ukraine. This campaign is one of the most notable pro-Ukraine cyber attacks launched against Russian firms since Anonymous claimed on 14 March to have successfully compromised Russian state energy company Rosneft’s German subsidiary (see Sibylline Biweekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 15 March 2022). With Moscow’s military offensive in Ukraine unlikely to abate, further such hacktivist attacks are likely to take place in the coming days in support of Kyiv. Nevertheless, these groups’ limited technical capabilities will ensure that such activity will be characterised by rudimentary attacks, such as data leaks or DDoS, that have a minimal or temporary impact on business operations.

Uzbekistan: Concerns over Russia’s war in Ukraine likely to deter pursuit of EAEU membership

On 17 March, Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov clarified that Uzbekistan will not recognise the independence of separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, due to respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The statement sets Uzbekistan apart from its Central Asian counterparts, who have adopted non-committal positions on the conflict, despite pressure from Moscow. In addition, Komilov urged both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to reach a diplomatic solution, calling for an end to “military activities and aggression”. Uzbekistan’s openly neutral foreign policy stance comes as the government debates pursuing World Trade Organisation (WTO) or Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) membership, with the latter bringing Uzbekistan closer to Moscow. The conflict in Ukraine reduces the likelihood that Uzbekistan will make a bid for EAEU or Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) membership in the short to mid-term, amid concerns over associated reputational, political and economic risks, which would likely deter foreign investors as the country looks to further open up its markets. (Source: Sibylline)

21 Mar 22. Ukraine refuses to surrender Mariupol as Russia warns of humanitarian ‘catastrophe.’

– Ukraine on Monday rejected Russian calls to surrender the port city of Mariupol, where residents are besieged with little food, water and power in a humanitarian crisis that is increasing pressure on European leaders to toughen sanctions on Moscow.

Ukraine’s government defiantly rejected Russian calls for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol to lay down their arms in exchange for safe passage out of the city and humanitarian corridors to be opened from 1000 Moscow time (0700 GMT) on Monday.

“There can be no question of any surrender, laying down of arms,” the Ukrainska Pravda news portal cited Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk as saying. read more

“We have already informed the Russian side about this.”

Mariupol has suffered some of the heaviest bombardments since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Many of its 400,000 residents remain trapped as fighting rages on the streets around them.

Vereshchuk said over 7,000 people were evacuated from Ukrainian cities through humanitarian corridors on Sunday, more than half from Mariupol. She said the government planned to send nearly 50 buses there on Monday for further evacuations.

Russia and Ukraine have made agreements throughout the war on humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians, but have accused each other of frequent violations of those.

The crisis in Mariupol and other devastated Ukrainian cities is likely to feature heavily in discussions between European Union leaders this week as they consider imposing tougher sanctions on Russia including an oil embargo. read more

EU governments will take up the discussion among foreign ministers on Monday, before U.S. President Joe Biden arrives in Brussels on Thursday for summits with NATO’s 30 allies, as well as the EU and in a Group of Seven (G7) format including Japan. read more

Diplomats told Reuters that Baltic countries including Lithuania are pushing for an embargo as the next logical step, while Germany is warning against acting too quickly because of already high energy prices in Europe.

In his latest appeal for help from abroad, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed the Israeli parliament by video link on Sunday and questioned Israel’s reluctance to sell its Iron Dome missile defence system to Ukraine. read more

“Everybody knows that your missile defence systems are the best … and that you can definitely help our people, save the lives of Ukrainians, of Ukrainian Jews,” said Zelenskiy, who is of Jewish heritage.

Zelenskiy also welcomed the mediation efforts of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who has held numerous calls with him and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He said in his daily video address to Ukrainians that “sooner or later we will begin to have talks with Russia, possibly in Jerusalem”.

Mariupol’s council said on Telegram that several thousand residents had been “deported” to Russia over the past week. Russian news agencies said buses had carried hundreds of refugees from Mariupol to Russia in recent days.

U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told CNN the deportation accounts were “disturbing” and “unconscionable” if true, but said Washington had not yet confirmed them.

Reuters could not independently verify the claims. Russia denies targeting civilians.

Greece’s consul general in Mariupol, the last EU diplomat to evacuate the city, said it was joining the ranks of places known for having been destroyed in wars. r

“What I saw, I hope no one will ever see,” he said.

Kyiv and Moscow reported some progress last week toward a political formula that would guarantee Ukraine’s security, while keeping it outside NATO – a key Russian demand – though each side accused the other of dragging things out. read more

FEW ADVANCES

Capturing Mariupol would help Russian forces secure a land corridor to the Crimea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Putin says Russia’s “special operation” is aimed at disarming Ukraine and rooting out dangerous nationalists. Western nations call it an aggressive war of choice and have imposed punishing sanctions aimed at crippling Russia’s economy.

Ukraine and its Western backers say Russian ground forces have made few advances in the last week, concentrating instead on artillery and missile strikes.

Zelenskiy’s adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said on Sunday there had been a relative lull over the past 24 hours, with “practically no rocket strikes on cities”. He said front lines were “practically frozen”.

Three civilians were killed and five were injured as a result of Russian shelling on Sunday in the east of the country, said Pavel Kirilenko, head of the Donetsk regional military administration. In the Kharkiv region one person was killed and one injured, and in Luhansk region two were killed and one injured.

In the capital Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported several explosions in Podil district and said rescue teams were putting out a large fire at the shopping centre. He said at least one person was killed. read more

Reuters was not able to verify the reports.

The U.N. human rights office said at least 902 civilians had been killed as of Saturday, though the real toll was probably much higher.

A five km area around a chemicals plant in the besieged northeastern city of Sumy the plant was hazardous due to an ammonia leak, Sumy regional Governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said. It was not known what caused the leak.

About 10 million Ukrainians had been displaced, including some 3.4 million who have fled to neighbouring countries such as Poland, the U.N. refugee agency said. read more

In the southern city of Kherson, video seen by Reuters showed dozens of protesters, some wrapped in Ukraine’s blue-and-yellow flag, chanting “Go home” in Russian at two military vehicles with Russian markings. The vehicles turned and left.

“I want the war to be over, I want them (Russian forces) to leave Ukraine in peace,” said Margarita Morozova, 87, who survived Nazi Germany’s siege of Leningrad in World War Two and has lived in Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine, for the past 60 years (Source: Reuters)

21 Mar 22. Ukraine has rejected a Russian deadline to surrender control of the besieged port city of Mariupol, the scene of some of the heaviest fighting since Moscow launched its invasion more than three weeks ago. The Russian defence ministry said on Sunday it would open humanitarian corridors out of Mariupol from 10am local time on Monday and told Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms and leave. It demanded Kyiv respond in writing to its ultimatum by 5am on Monday. But Ukraine’s government said it would refuse to hand over the city. “There can be no question of surrendering the city and laying down weapons. We demand that the corridor be opened,” deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk was quoted by the Ukrainska Pravda news site as saying early on Monday. Russia — which has framed its invasion as a “special operation” to “liberate” Ukraine — claimed Kyiv was using “Nazis”, “foreign mercenaries” and “bandits” to hold up to 130,000 civilians hostage. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, it has denied any responsibility for the overwhelming civilian casualties in Mariupol and blamed them on “provocations” by Ukrainian nationalists. The ultimatum came as fierce fighting engulfed Mariupol on Sunday, with Russian forces tightening their grip and bombing a school where about 400 residents were sheltering. The eastern port city has been devastated by relentless shelling, with whole neighbourhoods reduced to piles of smouldering rubble. Electricity, gas and water have been cut off and trapped residents are without food. (Source: FT.com)

20 Mar 22. Russia and Ukraine edge towards agreement on key peace points, says Turkey. Fierce fighting continues in Mariupol as negotiators note ‘convergence’ on some issues. Russia and Ukraine “have almost reached agreement” on four critical points of a potential peace agreement, Turkey’s foreign minister said, as fierce fighting continued to devastate the key port city of Mariupol. Mevlut Cavusoglu told Turkey’s pro-government Hurriyet newspaper that there was a growing “convergence” between Moscow and Kyiv after intense diplomacy over the past week. “On important subjects, critical subjects, there is a convergence between the two sides,” Cavusoglu said. “Especially on the first four points we see that they have almost reached agreement.” Turkey, which is mediating in the talks alongside Israel, said Ukraine and Russia had made significant progress on Kyiv declaring neutrality and abandoning its drive for Nato membership, “demilitarising” Ukraine in exchange for collective security guarantees, what Russia calls “denazification”, and lifting restrictions on the use of Russian in Ukraine. (Source: FT.com)

19 Mar 22. U.S. to provide Stryker army company to NATO battlegroup in Bulgaria. The United States has agreed to provide a Stryker mechanized infantry company for Bulgaria’s battlegroup under NATO’s drive to bolster its eastern flank after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said on Saturday.

“The USA agreed to provide a Stryker company,” he told a press conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “This is a strong sign to all of our allies in NATO.”

Bulgaria, once Moscow’s closest ally during the Cold War era but a NATO and European Union member state, is establishing a battlegroup of up to 1,000 troops under the operational command of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe. The battlegroup is expected to host troops from other allied countries as well.

“I wanted to underscore the importance of the announcement that Bulgaria has established and is leading a NATO multinational battlegroup. It is an important step and we fully support it,” Austin said.

Petkov said Bulgaria would continue to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine and take in Ukrainian refugees from the war, but it was not considering sending any weaponry to Kyiv for the time being as his Black Sea country was too close to the conflict. (Source: Reuters)

19 Mar 22. Russia uses hypersonic missiles in strike on Ukraine arms depot. Russia said on Saturday it had used hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles to destroy a large weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region.

Russia’s Interfax news agency said it was the first time Russia had deployed the hypersonic Kinzhal system since it sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told a briefing that the underground depot hit by the Kinzhal system on Friday housed Ukrainian missiles and aircraft ammunition, according to a recording of the briefing shared by Russian news agencies.

Reuters was not able to independently verify Konashenkov’s statements.

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force command confirmed a Russian missile strike on Delyatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region on Friday, without giving further details.

Russia prides itself on its advanced weaponry, and President Vladimir Putin said in December that Russia was the global leader in hypersonic missiles, whose speed, manoeuvrability and altitude make them difficult to track and intercept.

The Kinzhal missiles are part of an array of weapons unveiled in 2018.

Konashenkov added on Saturday that Russian forces had also destroyed military radio and reconnaissance centres near the Ukrainian port city of Odessa using the Bastion coastal missile system.

Moscow refers to its actions in Ukraine as a “special operation” to weaken its southern neighbour’s military capabilities and root out people it calls dangerous nationalists. Ukrainian forces have mounted stiff resistance and Western countries have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia in an effort to force it to withdraw its forces. (Source: Reuters)

20 Mar 22. Russian navy commander killed in Ukraine. A senior naval commander in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been killed in Ukraine, the governor of Sevastopol said on Sunday.

Post-Captain Andrei Paliy, deputy commander of the fleet, died during fighting in the eastern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said on the messaging app Telegram.

The Russian navy did not respond to a request for comment.

Sevastopol, which is a major base of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, is located on the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. (Source: Reuters)

20 Mar 22. Ukraine’s Zelenskiy presses Israel for missile defence help, fighting rages in Mariupol.

Summary
Mariupol city council says thousands taken by force to Russia
Zelenskiy says siege of Mariupol is a war crime
Appeals to Israel for help in video link with Knesset
Russia says it has fired hypersonic missiles
Turkish minister says Russia, Ukraine closer to ceasefire

Russian and Ukrainian forces fought for control of the port city of Mariupol on Sunday, local authorities said, while President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed to Israel for help pushing back the Russian assault on his country.

During a video link address to the Israeli parliament, Zelenskiy questioned Israel’s reluctance to sell its Iron Dome missile defence system to Ukraine. It was the latest in a series of appeals he has made for help from abroad.

“Everybody knows that your missile defence systems are the best… and that you can definitely help our people, save the lives of Ukrainians, of Ukrainian Jews,” said Zelenskiy, who is of Jewish heritage.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has held numerous calls with both Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks to try to end the conflict.

In Mariupol, which has suffered some of the heaviest bombardment since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24, many of its 400,000 residents remain trapped in the city with little if any food, water and power. read more

Fighting continued inside the city on Sunday, regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said, without elaborating.

Capturing Mariupol would help Russian forces secure a land corridor to the Crimea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

The city council said on its Telegram channel late on Saturday that several thousand residents had been “deported” to Russia over the past week. Russian news agencies said buses had carried hundreds of people Moscow calls refugees from Mariupol to Russia in recent days.

Russian forces bombed an art school on Saturday in which 400 residents were sheltering, but the number of casualties was not yet known, Mariupol’s council said.

Reuters could not independently verify the claims.

Russia denies targeting civilians.

Zelenskiy said the siege of Mariupol was a war crime.

“To do this to a peaceful city… is a terror that will be remembered for centuries to come,” he said in an address late on Saturday.

Putin says Russia’s “special operation” is aimed at disarming Ukraine and rooting out people he terms dangerous nationalists. Western nations call it an aggressive war of choice and have imposed punishing sanctions aimed at crippling Russia’s economy.

Ukraine and its Western backers say Russian ground forces have made few advances in the last week, concentrating their efforts instead on artillery and missile strikes.

Zelenskiy’s adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said there had been a relative lull in the conflict over the past 24 hours, with “practically no rocket strikes on (Ukrainian) cities”. He said front lines were “practically frozen”.

The U.N. refugee agency said 10 million people had now been displaced across Ukraine, including some 3.4 million who have fled to neighbouring countries such as Poland. Officials in the region said they were reaching capacity to comfortably house refugees.

‘WHAT ARE THEY DOING HERE?’

The U.N. human rights office said at least 902 civilians had been killed in the war as of midnight Saturday, though it says the real toll is probably much higher. Ukrainian prosecutors said 112 children had been killed.

“Ukraine is an independent country. What are they doing here?”

Russia’s defence ministry said cruise missiles were launched from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, as well as hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace.

The hypersonic missiles travel faster than five times the speed of sound and their speed, manoeuvrability and altitude make them difficult to track and intercept.

They were deployed by Russia for the first time in Ukraine on Saturday, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported, in a strike which Moscow said destroyed a large underground depot for missiles and aircraft ammunition.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force Command confirmed the attack in the western Ivano-Frankivsk region, but said the Ukrainian side had no information on the type of missiles used.

In the southern city of Kherson, a video clip obtained by Reuters showed dozens of protesters, some wrapped in Ukraine’s blue and yellow national flag, chanting “Go home” in Russian to two military vehicles bearing Russian markings. The vehicles then turned and left the area.

DIPLOMACY

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu of Turkey, which like Israel has tried to mediate in the conflict, said Russia and Ukraine were getting closer to agreement on “critical” issues. read more

Kyiv and Moscow reported some progress in talks last week toward a political formula that would guarantee Ukraine’s security, while keeping it outside NATO – a key Russian demand – though each side accused the other of dragging things out. read more

Russian forces have also taken heavy losses in the war, and long columns of troops that bore down on the capital Kyiv have been halted in the suburbs. Ukraine’s military said on Sunday Moscow’s combat losses included 14,700 personnel and 476 tanks.

Russia last acknowledged on March 2 that nearly 500 of its soldiers had been killed. Reuters has not been able to independently verify the death count.

Zelenskiy’s office said Ukraine sees risks of an attack launched from Belarus on the western Volyn region, which lies to the north of the city of Lviv. It was not clear whether Ukraine saw such an attack coming from Russian or Belarusian forces.

While Belarus is a close ally of Putin’s and has served as a staging post for Russian forces, it has so far not publicly committed troops to supporting Russia. (Source: Reuters)

20 Mar 22. Russia’s Amphibious Operation Dilemma. The war between Russia and Ukraine is four weeks old. Speculation about possible landing operations has always existed, as Russia has reinforced its Black Sea Fleet with additional landing assets and the amphibious task force has been present in the Black Sea since the beginning of the war.

The possibility of a Russian amphibious operation has been on the table since the escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. There have been strong indications pointing to a future landing operation, such as the deployment of additional landing ships to the Black Sea, the conduct of naval exercises based on amphibious operations in conjunction with airborne operations, etc.

On the other hand, Naval News recently mentioned in an analysis that an amphibious operation would be a risky decision for Russia, which can dominate the Black Sea without Ukrainian resistance, due to the structure of Ukrainian coasts and the general nature of amphibious operations, which require many casualties.

“Terrain constraints, amphibious lift limitations, difficulty sustaining air dominance, and logistical issues all point to the dangerous nature of any Russian amphibious operation in the Black Sea. As a result, Russia’s decision to start an amphibious operation is solely dependent on how much loss it can tolerate.”

Activities of Amphibious Task Groups

Russia’s amphibious units have been on the scene since the beginning of the war. One amphibious group has been operating in the Sea of Azov, while another, the larger group has been traversing off the coast of Odesa. The force composition is large enough to pose a threat to the coast, but there have been no visually verified amphibious operations to date.

Mariupol Operation

According to USNI’s 25 February report, Russia’s amphibious force in the Sea of Azov launched landing operations near Mariupol. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters that the Pentagon didn’t have “perfect visibility” on the assault and couldn’t provide specific numbers for how many troops Russians landed via landing ships.

The UK Ministry of Defence touched on this subject in an intelligence update feed via Twitter on February 26 and said that Russia has likely conducted an amphibious landing in southern Ukraine between Melitopol and Mariupol.

Though there are intelligence reports from the U.S. and the UK, neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials didn’t confirm a landing operation in the Mariupol region. Moreover, there is no visually verified landing activity while landing, just footage showing a few tanks proceeding on the road.

Three weeks after these claims, Russian forces captured Berdyansk, a port city west of Mariupol, but this invasion was not the result of an amphibious operation. Russian landing ships approached the port after the city had been captured by Russian forces from land.

Amphibious Threat to Odesa

The Russian amphibious task force, which poses a direct threat to Odesa, has been stationed off the west of the Crimean Peninsula since the beginning of the war. The group usually stays south of Donuzlav Bay (probably for protection from the winds and waves coming from the north) and moves west to be visible from the coast, traversing between east and west.

On March 15, there were certain signs of Russia’s preparations for a landing at Odessa. According to H. I. Sutton’s OSINT analysis, three groups of ships were on their way to Odessa, two of which consisted of fighting ships and one of several landing ships.

“The group, forming in an easterly direction, appears to be led by a tug or minesweeper. This ship appears to be towing a minesweeper. Behind it are two Ropucha-class landing ships, another tug, and the following Ropucha.” H I Sutton, OSINT Analyst

Meanwhile, Russian naval and air forces reportedly conducted missile strikes in and around the coastal city of Odessa. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry states that a total of 90 missiles were fired, several of which were intercepted by air defense systems or landed outside the city. This was counted as a pre-landing phase, called “preparation of the amphibious area of operations” for the landing forces, aimed at breaking Ukrainian resistance to Russian landing forces to reduce potential casualties during the landing.

The movements of amphibious ships, the formation of supporting ships, the use of a minesweeper to guide task group from safe waters, a heavy bombardment of the coastline were clear indications of a landing operation. There were several photos showing Ukrainian preparations to defend Odesa, including tanks and artillery in urban areas ready to attack the coast, and numerous positions on the coast to prevent a landing operation.

Contrary to expectations, Russia did not launch an amphibious operation to Odessa, and the day after the bombardment, the amphibious task group resumed its previous actions.

Assault or Demonstration?

It is difficult to comprehend Russia’s plans for amphibious operations. To understand this, we need to know what Putin has on his agenda, and the most significant point here is how much loss he can risk. However, due to the difficulty of such an operation and the fact that it is a high-loss operation, this option was difficult from the beginning.

On the other hand, the performance of Russian forces in terms of command and control and logistical support did not seem bright so far. At this C2 and logistics level, the outcome of an amphibious operation can be disastrous for Russian amphibious forces. In addition, Russian landing ships are at sea for four weeks, which means that the infantry battalions that are supposed to conduct landing operations are not in good shape. Being stuck in a small landing ship not only causes fatigue but also negatively affects the soldiers’ will to fight.

When these new difficulties are added to the previously indicated hardnesses for an amphibious operation, the likelihood of such an operation decreases. As the war wore on, however, both the cost of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries began to put Putin in a difficult position. When the invasion reaches this level, it seems difficult for Russia to return without getting what it wants. Therefore, will Russia conduct an amphibious operation to break the determination of Ukraine by capturing Odesa, even if it will cause many casualties? It’s hard to say “no”.

So why is Russia wearing out its amphibious forces by keeping them at sea when it is not conducting amphibious operations? In naval literature, this is called an “Amphibious Demonstration“.

“An amphibious demonstration is a show of force that stops short of an actual landing. Demonstrations are conducted to deceive the enemy or, in situations short of hostilities, to signal presence and intent.”

Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. US Department of Defense 2005.

Russia creates the perception that there is a threat in this region by constantly performing amphibious demonstrations off Odessa, thus keeping Odessa on constant alert, which causes it to keep soldiers in this region. This situation precludes troops waiting to defend the Odessa coastline from supporting forces fighting in other places. (Source: News Now/https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news)

18 Mar 22. Britain, U.S. warn of satellite communications risks after Ukraine hack.

Britain and the United States have warned organisations of the risks associated with using satellite communications following a cyberattack on satellite internet modems as Russia invaded Ukraine.

Western intelligence agencies have been investigating the attack which disrupted broadband satellite internet access provided by U.S. telecommunications firm Viasat, Reuters reported last week.

“It’s certainly something we’re investigating quite actively – more than quite actually,” a British official told reporters on Friday. “We’ve been talking extensively to UK organisations to give them a sense of how we can advise them on that point.”

The unidentified hackers disabled tens of thousands of modems that communicate with Viasat Inc’s KA-SAT satellite, which supplies internet to some customers in Europe, including in Ukraine.

Late on Thursday, the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued a joint statement which warned of the “possible threats to U.S. and international satellite communication (SATCOM) networks” in the wake of the attack.

SATCOM network providers and customers should increase their security and report any malicious activity given the “current geopolitical situation”, the statement said.

French government cybersecurity organisation ANSSI and Ukrainian intelligence are assessing whether the remote sabotage was the work of Russian-state backed hackers preparing the battlefield by attempting to sever communications, Reuters reported.

Russian troops have taken heavy losses while blasting residential areas in Ukraine to rubble, sending more than 3 million refugees fleeing. Moscow denies it is targeting civilians in what it calls a “special operation” to disarm its neighbour. r

The digital blitz on the satellite service began on Feb. 24 between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m., the day Russian forces launched their invasion.

“Were it to be ultimately attributed to Russia, it would very much fit within what we expect them to do, which is use their cyber capabilities to support, ultimately, their military campaign,” the British official said. (Source: Reuters)

19 Mar 22. Bulgaria Stands Up Multinational Battle Group. Bulgaria has established and is now leading a NATO multinational battle group. It’s an important step in the face of nearby Russian aggression in Ukraine and the United States fully supports it, said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. Austin and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov held a joint press conference today in Bulgaria.

U.S. and Bulgarian forces are training together, and Bulgaria is also working on important defense modernization efforts as outlined in a bilateral 10-year roadmap for defense cooperation, the secretary said.

“Your commitment is a model for other allies to follow. Improving Bulgaria’s military readiness and NATO interoperability is even more vital today,” he said.

The secretary also thanked the prime minister for Bulgaria taking in more than 80,000 refugees as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

“In our conversation, the prime minister and I were both struck by the courage and the conviction of the Ukrainian people. They’re fighting against huge odds to defend their country. And their struggle is crucial for the rules-based international order and for the common values that Bulgaria and United States share,” the secretary said.

Petkov said America has shown tremendous support to Bulgaria.

Unfortunately, there is now not a single country that can live with the illusion that they are safe and secure since the Russian invasion began, he said.

“No one can defend themselves alone. Our security lies with the collective security with our allies within NATO,” he said.

The United States has agreed to provide a Stryker unit to contribute to the battle group in Bulgaria, he said, mentioning that the battle group commander will be a Bulgarian.

That sends a strong signal to other NATO allies to also help boost Bulgaria’s military forces, he said.

The prime minister also said the U.S. and Bulgaria discussed logistics and ways to better facilitate troop movements such as building roads, railroads and a bridge over the Danube River. (Source: US DoD)

20 Mar 22. In the build-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the national security community braced for a campaign combining military combat, disinformation, electronic warfare and cyber attacks. Vladimir Putin would deploy devastating cyber operations, the thinking went, to disable government and critical infrastructure, blind Ukrainian surveillance capabilities and limit lines of communications to help invading forces. But that’s not how it has played out. At least, not yet. There were some modest cyber attacks ahead of the invasion, including website defacements on Ukrainian government and financial services in January, and similar follow-on operations in February. Satellite broadband provider Viasat was hit with an attack that disrupted commercial and industrial operations throughout Europe, though that event has not been tied to Russia yet. Of course, that’s our assessment right now: the fog of war, combined with the fact that many Ukrainian businesses are shuttered , means there are quite likely more we don’t know about. We also need to be realistic about the role of cyber attacks — they are not in the same league as the tools of conventional warfare. To put it bluntly, when your family is being gunned down, does it really matter if you can’t check your email? Instead, cyber operations are more ideally suited to the “greyzone” — the arena of conflict below the threshold of bombs and bullets — where tactical objectives are not only about disrupting services, but also about intimidation, distraction, and confusion. (Source: FT.com)

19 Mar 22. Finland warns of ‘major escalation risk’ in Europe amid Nato membership debate. Finland’s president has warned that applying for Nato membership would carry a “major risk” of escalation in Europe as the Nordic country explores ways to improve its security set-up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sauli Niinisto said that joining Nato was one of the two main alternatives to Finland’s current position inside the EU but outside a military alliance. The other option is a deepening of its defence co-operation with the US and neighbouring Sweden. “The starting point is that we are looking at something else than continuing just like this,” Niinisto told the Financial Times. “All these alternatives have an advantage that our security will improve. Or we make sure that our stability remains and that we can make sure we live in [a] secure environment . . . Our main headline is: Finnish security.” For the first time a majority of Finns want to join Nato; a poll by state broadcaster Yle last week found that 62 per cent were in favour and only 16 per cent against. For decades, support ran at about 20 per cent. If Finland’s political leadership backed Nato membership, 74 per cent of Finns said they would be in favour of joining. Niinisto, who as president exercises considerable influence over Finland’s foreign policy, said: “I understand very well that, for example, [joining] Nato might seem like our worries are over. But all the different alternatives include risks we have to recognise . . . At the moment the major risk is escalation of the situation in Europe.” (Source: FT.com)

19 Mar 22. Russia regroups for assault on Kyiv as it tightens grip on Mariupol. Putin’s offensive has been slowed by logistical challenges, tactical missteps and intense Ukrainian resistance. Russia is regrouping its forces for a renewed offensive on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, according to Ukrainian military officials, as it seeks to cut off the northern cities of Chernihiv and Sumy. Russian forces also continued to tighten their grip around Mariupol, the port on the Sea of Azov in south-eastern Ukraine that has been subjected to fierce Russian artillery shelling for more than two weeks. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called for comprehensive peace talks with Moscow, warning it would take Russia several generations to recover from its losses in the war. “The time has come to meet. The time has come to talk,” Zelensky said in a video address to the nation. “It is time to restore territorial integrity and justice for Ukraine. Otherwise, Russia’s losses will be so great that it will take you several generations to recover.” With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its fourth week, its offensive appears to have stalled on several fronts, slowed by logistical challenges, tactical missteps and intense Ukrainian resistance. Though it has made some headway in the south, where it captured the port city of Kherson early on in the war, its advance has been halted on the approaches to Mykolaiv, a city on the Bug estuary that is a major shipbuilding centre and one of Ukraine’s key transport hubs. Russia has been forced to “change its operational approach and is now pursuing a strategy of attrition”, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. “This is likely to involve the indiscriminate use of firepower, resulting in increased civilian casualties, destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and intensify the humanitarian crisis,” the MoD said. (Source: FT.com)

18 Mar 22. Czech Republic weighs upping its order of Bell-made Venom, Viper helicopters. The Czech Republic is planning to buy additional UH-1Y Venom and AH-1Z Viper helicopters for its military, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the country’s existing fleet is “insufficient,” according to Defense Minister Jana Černochová.

“At the Ministry of Defence, we have all the prerequisites to catch up in terms of defense spending as soon as possible,” Černochová was quoted in a statement released by the ministry. The minister was referring to plans by Prague to increase its military expenditure to 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in line with its commitment to NATO.

During her recent meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Černochová discussed the ministry’s interest in purchasing additional helicopters made by Bell Helicopters “because it turns out the 12 machines that the Czech military will receive next year are insufficient due to the current situation” in Ukraine, according to the statement.

The number of the copters that the Czech Republic aims to acquire was not disclosed. However, local industry observers expect Prague to purchase a further 12 helos on top of its first order.

In 2019, the Czech government decided to buy eight UH-1Y Venom and four AH-1Z Viper helos with related gear and services under a deal worth about 14.5bn koruna (US $645m). (Source: Defense News)

18 Mar 22. US is Sending Switchblade Drones to Ukraine. The expanded arsenal that the U.S. is sending to Ukraine includes 100 armed drones that are tube-launched from the ground and plunge into their targets, according to people familiar with the plans. The dive-bombing Switchblade drone, made by AeroVironment Inc., has been in the arsenal of U.S. commandos since it was secretly sent to Afghanistan in 2010 for use against the Taliban. Army officials have described it as a flying shotgun. It’s less than 24 inches (61 centimeters) long and weighs about six pounds (2.7 kilograms.)

A senior U.S. defense official described the drone that the U.S. will be sending as a weapon that packs a punch. It can fit in a rucksack and costs as little as $6,000.

President Joe Biden listed drones, without elaboration, as part of a package of weapons for Ukraine that he said demonstrates the U.S. “commitment to sending our most cutting-edge systems to Ukraine for its defense.” People familiar with the planned arms package confirmed that the armed Switchblade was the pilotless vehicle being provided. (Source: UAS VISION/Bloomberg)

18 Mar 22. Joe Biden to warn Xi Jinping of US retaliation if China actively supports Russia. Leaders due to speak on Friday as rockets hit outskirts of Lviv in western Ukraine. Joe Biden will warn Xi Jinping the US is prepared to retaliate if Beijing actively supports Russia in Ukraine in a call between the US and Chinese leaders that could represent a pivotal moment in the diplomacy surrounding the war. The talks on Friday come as the Biden administration grows increasingly concerned about China’s possible willingness to assist President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, which enters its 23rd day with Russian missiles striking the western city of Lviv. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said Biden would “make clear that China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia’s aggression, and we will not hesitate to impose costs”. Jen Psaki, White House press secretary, told reporters the call was a chance for Biden to see “where President Xi stands”. “The fact that China has not denounced what Russia is doing, in and of itself, speaks volumes,” she added. While Beijing publicly claims to have a neutral stance, the US is concerned the country is moving closer to supporting Russia with military equipment. China has also avoided describing the war as an “invasion”, referring instead to the Ukraine “issue” or “crisis”. China said it would “never accept US threats and coercion” and warned the Biden administration over supporting Taiwan, state media reported. “Unsurprisingly, some senior US officials over the past two days have repeatedly . . . smeared China regarding the Ukraine situation,” a government official said, according to the official China Daily newspaper. Any intervention by China to provide military support for Russia would mark a significant turning point in the war, leaving Ukraine as the theatre for a conflict indirectly involving all five nuclear powers on the UN Security Council. (Source: FT.com)

17 Mar 22. No Russian Shelling on Ukraine Observed in Last 24 Hours, DOD Official Says. There has been little activity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the last 24 hours, according to a senior Defense Department official.

“We have observed naval activity in the north Black Sea off the coast of Odesa, but no shelling over the course of the last 24 hours that we observed,” the official said. “And imminent signs of an amphibious assault on Odesa,” he noted, adding that in terms of ground movements, the Russians are basically where they have been since yesterday.

” Ukrainians are putting a lot of effort into defending Kyiv as you would expect them to do. Ukrainians are the reason why haven’t been able to move forward. And it’s because they’re very actively resisting any movement by the Russians,” he said.

Officially, the war is not at a stalemate; rather, the Ukrainians are actively resisting any movement by the Russians, even though the Russians have advantages in terms of their long-range missile fires, and they are continuing to use them.

“We have anecdotal indications that Russian morale is flagging,” he said. “We don’t have insight into every unit and every location, but we certainly have picked up anecdotal indications that morale is not high in some units. And some of that is, we believe, a function of poor leadership, lack of information that the troops are getting about their mission and objectives, and I think, disillusionment from being resisted as fiercely as they have been. But again, I want to stress, these are anecdotal accounts. We’re confident in what we’re picking up, and we would not apply that to the entire force that Russia has put into Ukraine,” he added.

The United States is continuing to work with its allies and partners on the possibility of helping Ukraine with long-range air defense systems and other systems the Ukrainians are trained on, in addition to helping them face artillery bombardment, the official said. “It’s us talking to individual nations who might be able to have these capabilities and to provide them,” he added.

“I don’t have an inventory list of the Russian missile stockpile, we still assess that they have a significant amount of their combat power available to them,” the official said.

“We have seen them rely a little bit more on dumb bombs, if you will, non-precision guidance. We think it’s possible that they might be either conserving their precision-guided munitions or are beginning to experience shortages. Again, it’s not 100% clear,” he noted.

The official said DOD “absolutely thinks” that while the Russians still have the majority of their combat power available, they’re talking about resupply and resourcing and revealed that they are beginning to get concerned about longevity.

“I want to stress — if we haven’t seen them move supplies from elsewhere in Russia to Ukraine — they still have a lot available for them — they are thinking about it here three weeks in, certainly is noteworthy,” he said. (Source: US DoD)

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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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