NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Apr. 26.

Executive summary

In our most likely three-month scenario, positional fighting continues to prevent major battlefield breakthroughs on either side.

In our most likely 12-month scenario, the war evolves into a broadly stable attritional conflict that protracts into 2025.

While the approval of a USD 61 billion aid package for Ukraine this month marks a crucial turning point for the war in 2024, battlefield conditions have continued to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces in April. The rapid deployment of US aid will increase Ukraine’s chances of stabilising the frontline ahead of Russia’s expected summer offensive in June, though conditions will remain very difficult.

Ukrainian air defence missile shortages have worsened throughout April, allowing numerous high-intensity Russian missile and drone strikes to saturate air defences and inflict significant damage to critical infrastructure. Russian forces are likely to exploit a closing window of opportunity before Western aid arrives to stabilise Ukraine’s air defences; they will likely launch further high-intensity strikes. Ukraine’s military-industrial, energy and logistics centres are likely to be high-priority targets in May.

Other key triggers, warnings and indicators to watch in May include ramped up pressure on Ukrainian expats living across Europe to register for military service, as well as ongoing Ukrainian air defence munition shortages and continued energy insecurity across Ukraine amid Russian long-range strikes.

Apr. 25.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

BAKHMUT: An estimated 20,000-25,000 Russian personnel are currently assaulting the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, located to the west of Bakhmut; progress remains slow
STRIKES: Washington DC has secretly supplied Ukraine with around 100 long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have already struck Russian targets in occupied Crimea; Ukraine is likely to step up these attacks in the near term
BELARUS: The Belarusian security services alleged that their forces prevented a ‘drone strike’ emanating from Lithuanian territory against undisclosed targets in Minsk, though this remains unconfirmed
FORECAST: US President Joe Biden has signed into law a new USD 61 bn aid package to Ukraine; an additional USD 1 bn package will be deployed to Ukraine to help stabilise the front in the coming weeks
OFFENSIVES: On 23 April, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed the Ministry of Defence (MoD) Collegium and stated that Russia will intensify strikes against Ukrainian logistics and facilities storing Western weapons. Shoigu’s comments almost certainly reflect Russian efforts to exploit the closing window before Western (namely US) aid begins to arrive in Ukraine, offsetting Russia’s current advantage in artillery. On 19 April, Russian forces conducted intense strikes against various transport infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, likely in a bid to degrade Ukraine’s ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and capability to disseminate Western aid rapidly to the frontlines when it arrives in the country.
BAKHMUT: Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn stated on 22 April that between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian personnel are currently assaulting the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, located to the west of Bakhmut. However, there have been no confirmed Russian advances in this direction in recent days, though Russian sources have claimed that their forces have taken control over Bohdanivka, located to the north-east of Chasiv Yar. While this remains unconfirmed, Voloshyn assesses that efforts to take Bohdanivka (and Ivanivske to the south) are part of Russia’s ambitions to break through to Chasiv Yar. A Ukrainian battalion commander notably stated on 24 April that Russian assaults against Chasiv Yar have failed over the last week, but that Russian forces are currently forming new assault groups near Bakhmut and replenishing losses for future assaults.
DONETSK: On 25 April, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russian forces intensified operations in the Avdiivka sector, carrying out 27 attacks in the sector over the past 24 hours. On 24 April, The Telegraph reported that Russian troops captured Ocheretyne (located to the north-west of Avdiivka) on 20-21 April. According to the media outlet, Russian forces conducted the attack during the rotation of a Ukrainian brigade along the frontline. Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces are operating within the settlement, though it remains unclear whether Russian forces now control the entire village. The attack on Ocheretyne is notable and forms part of a Russian push to the north-west of Avdiivka; a spearhead appears to be attempting to penetrate Ukrainian lines in this direction. While it remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to build further momentum during this attack, Russian pressure on Ukrainian positions is clearly very high along the Donetsk frontline; this comes amid Russian efforts to exploit weak points in the Ukrainian line and make as much ground as possible before US aid arrives.
DONETSK: Meanwhile, on 22 April, the Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces captured Novomykhailivka, located three miles (5km) north of Avdiivka. However, Ukrainska Pravda denied these statements, claiming that Ukrainian forces still control the northern part of the settlement, though also noting that the operational situation remains difficult. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 24 April shows recent Russian advances in central and northern Semenivka (Donetsk oblast), located six miles (10km) north-west of Avdiivka.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 22 April indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced in central Robtoyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast). However, despite further Russian claims in recent days that they have made more extensive gains in the area, these assertions remain confirmed and Russia’s overall rate of progress here has been very slow.
STRIKES: Early on 23 April, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles and 16 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 15 drones over Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts. Concurrently, the local authorities reported that the city of Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) was subject to intense shelling and drone strikes later on 23 April. Early on 24 April, a Russian missile struck a storage facility in Odesa oblast. On 25 April, a Russian-launched Iskandr-K cruise missile hit unspecified critical infrastructure in the city of Smila (Cherkasy oblast); the attack also damaged residential buildings.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, an unnamed source from Ukraine’s security service (SBU) told Ukrainksa Pravda that Ukrainian drones struck two Rosneft oil depots in Smolensk oblast (Russia) early on 24 April. On 25 April, the Russian state-owned news agency TASS reported that a fire erupted at an oil production facility in the city of Omsk (Omsk oblast, Russia). The Russian authorities did not disclose the cause of the incident. Although officials have not commented on the incident, there is a realistic possibility that a Ukrainian-orchestrated attack, such as a drone attack, caused the fire. The Smolensk drone strike underscores Kyiv’s willingness to target oil facilities in Russia despite the US’ recent calls to halt such attacks. Ultimately, these attacks will moderately drive global oil price volatility, which is already impacted by tensions in the Middle East.
STRIKES: On 24 April, Reuters (citing unnamed US officials) reported that Washington DC has secretly supplied Ukraine with around 100 long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in recent weeks. The provision was part of a USD 300 m defence aid package unveiled on 12 March. The New York Times reported that Kyiv used long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Russia’s Crimea-based Dzhankoi airfield on 17 April. The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, stated that Kyiv pledged only to use these projectiles against Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine and not de jure Russia territory. While Washington DC supplied mid-range ATACMS to Ukraine in September 2023, it was previously reluctant to provide the long-range version, which has a range of 186.4 miles (300km). Meanwhile, the USD 61 bn US aid package approved by President Joe Biden will reportedly include additional long-range ATACMS.
STRIKES: The provision of long-range ATACMS will facilitate Kyiv’s efforts to degrade Russian aviation capabilities and logistics in deep rear areas. On 24 April, open-source intelligence claimed that NATO has increased its aerial reconnaissance operations over the Black Sea in the past 48 hours. At the same time, a prominent Russian milblogger claimed on 24 April that such operations are aimed at mapping Russian air defences in Crimea. While such claims remain unconfirmed, these operations possibly indicate that Kyiv and its Western partners are preparing to utilise long-range ATACMS missiles as part of an intensified strike package against Russian military equipment and installations across the peninsula, particular S-400 air defence systems – which Ukrainian forces have already reportedly damaged in Crimea this week.
STRIKES: On 25 April, UK Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Tony Radakin told the Financial Times that Ukraine will likely intensify its long-range attacks inside Russian territory following the arrival of US military aid. Ukrainian military officials reportedly aim to continue strikes against production facilities and infrastructure. Such attacks have intensified over the past few months and are part of Ukraine’s asymmetrical strategy to offset Russia’s numerical superiority by undermining its defence logistics.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BELARUS: Earlier on 25 April, the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) alleged that its forces had prevented a ‘drone strike’ emanating from Lithuanian territory against undisclosed targets in the capital Minsk. Details remain limited at the time of writing, and it is unclear whether this is a false flag operation, a rhetorical accusation or a response to a genuine incident involving a drone accidently crossing the Lithuanian border. If a drone genuinely operated inside Belarusian territory, it was possibly a mis-attributed Ukrainian undercover operation (though again there is no evidence to confirm any of this at the time of writing). The accusation is most likely a response to Lithuania’s decision to extend sanctions against Belarus (and Russia) on 24 April.
BELARUS: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka also held a press conference on 25 April, during which he claimed that Western operatives are actively working inside Belarus and Russia. He also stated that there is ‘quite a high risk’ of incidents occurring along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, and that Belarus has moved several battalions from Vitebsk region to the country’s western frontiers. Such statements and moves are likely part of wider Russian-aligned efforts to deter Western support for Ukraine, as well as to illustrate to domestic populations that NATO poses a direct threat to Russia and Belarus. They possibly even aim to respond to Polish President Andrzej Duda’s readiness for Poland to host nuclear weapons (see below). We continue to assess that Belarus does not have the military capability to pose a direct threat to either Ukraine or its NATO neighbours, and that Russia currently retains a negligibly small force in Belarus (which also poses a very limited threat).
POLAND: Polish President Andrzej Duda stated in an interview published on 22 April that his country is ready to host nuclear weapons. Duda explained that Warsaw is prepared for this eventuality if NATO decides that such a step is necessary to reinforce the security of the alliance’s eastern flank. The Polish president accused Russia of militarising its Kaliningrad exclave at an increasing rate; he also noted the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
POLAND: However, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on 23 April that the military bloc is not considering stationing nuclear weapons in other countries at present. Nevertheless, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated earlier on 25 April that NATO nuclear capabilities in Poland would constitute military targets for Russia. This response was highly likely aimed at deterring any potential move to station Western nuclear weapons in Poland, though we assess that this remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future and that Russia’s options for responding will likely remain largely limited to rhetorical threats and nuclear posturing.
SANCTIONS: The European Commission is likely to leverage sanctions against ships delivering North Korean military aid to Russia and oil tankers that do not comply with the G7’s price cap on Russian oil. Reuters reported on 24 April that the commission is finalising its proposal for a 14th tranche of punitive measures against Moscow (some 40 companies are expected to be sanctioned). These include Russian entities procuring military equipment, as well as firms in third countries that sell electronics, semiconductors and chips for military purposes to Russia.
SANCTIONS: According to Reuters, these third-country firms that have sold EU- and US-origin equipment to Russia are based in China, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and the UAE. The measures almost certainly aim to target actors aiding Moscow’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine. These entities include firms supplying Russia prohibited goods, as well as tankers enabling Moscow to sell its oil higher than the G7’s USD 60 per barrel cap.
SANCTIONS: Bloomberg reported on 23 April that Russia’s efforts to bolster its natural gas exports to China are less lucrative than its deliveries to remaining European clients. The outlet claims to have obtained an economic outlook from Russia’s economics ministry, which indicates that gas prices for China are expected to be as much as 28% lower than those for European consumers through to 2027 (at least). In total, Russia’s pipeline-gas exports are forecast to grow through 2026. As such, the report indicates that Moscow’s pivot to strengthen energy ties with China following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions will possibly prove less profitable in the coming years given discounts provided to its eastern customers.
MOBILISATION: On 24 April, Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz disclosed that Warsaw is ready to aid Kyiv in getting military-age male citizens to return to Ukraine and to help with the war effort. Lithuanian Minister of Defence Laurinas Kaščiūnas stated on 25 April that his government will do likewise. These remarks come after the Ukrainian government suspended consular services for military-age men to prevent draftable citizens from renewing expiring passports before new legislation on mobilisation takes effect.
MOBILISATION: The Polish minister did not provide details on how Warsaw would encourage eligible Ukrainian men to return to Ukraine. Some 4.3 m Ukrainians were estimated to be living in EU countries as of January, of whom around 860,000 are adult men. Poland has been a popular destination for Ukrainians seeking refuge from the war. As per data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in October 2023, 65% of working-age Ukrainian refugees were estimated to be employed in Poland. Given the economic contribution of Ukrainian refugees to the Polish economy, it remains uncertain to what extent the Polish authorities would encourage Ukrainian male refugees to return to Ukraine in the coming months. Nevertheless, pressure on military-aged Ukrainian expats is set to increase across Europe in the coming months.

FORECAST

AID: On 24 April, US President Joe Biden signed into law an aid package providing nearly USD 61 bn in assistance to Ukraine. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine will now do ‘everything’ to compensate for the six months that have passed while the aid package was delayed by Congressional debate. The Ukrainian president insisted that Kyiv and its allies must overturn what Russian forces have managed to do while Ukraine was without US support. Reinforcing Ukraine’s degraded air defence network is likely to be a key priority. Notably, Zelensky referred to Russian military advances and attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, insisting that these should mobilise Kyiv and its partners to further pressurise Russia.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on 24 April that it would provide USD 1bn of assistance to meet Ukraine’s immediate security and defence needs. This includes Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, RIM-7 and AIM-9M air defence missiles, additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), artillery rounds and other capabilities. Notably, the US has already sent longer-range ATACMS to Ukraine. The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, confirmed that additional systems are due to be sent (see STRIKES above). CNN reported on 24 April that some of the aid is already in Germany and Poland, thus speeding up the timeframe of these capabilities reaching the frontlines. According to the outlet, artillery shells are to be among the first batches of equipment dispatched to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the first deliveries of artillery ammunition sourced through a Czech-led initiative are expected to arrive in Ukraine by late May or early June. These developments will begin to rebalance Ukraine’s current artillery disadvantage, though this is still likely to take some time.

Amid Western efforts to increase military assistance to Ukraine, Russia continues to ramp up its domestic military-industrial production – underscoring that the continuation of Western aid to Ukraine is critical for the foreseeable future. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius assessed on 24 April that Russia is producing weapons and ammunition in excess of its war needs. Pistorius claimed that ‘a significant portion’ of the equipment produced by Russia is no longer sent to the frontline; rather, it is dispatched to warehouses. The minister did not specify where he had obtained this information or which systems are being stored en masse. While high attrition rates have forced Moscow to rely upon Soviet stocks to offset significant losses of armoured vehicles and tanks, it is clear that Russia is ramping up military-industrial production with the view to fighting a protracted war in Ukraine (and to prepare for a possible confrontation with NATO in the medium-to-long term).

Apr. 24.

Ukraine Infrastructure Risk From Russian Cyber Actors. An international media site reported on 22 April that the Russian state-sponsored group ‘Sandworm’ (also known as ‘APT44’) targeted Ukrainian critical infrastructure with cyber operations in March 2024, which disrupted information and communication systems for 20 Ukrainian energy, heating and water organisations.

SIGNIFICANCE

The group infiltrated targeted networks by exploiting vulnerabilities in the software supply chain or by using third-party account credentials. Initial access was also facilitated by the targets’ inadequate cyber security measures, including a lack of network segmentation and insufficient supplier defences. These techniques are consistent with the group’s previous attack profiles where it leverages software supply chains to compromise victims.
The group also employed two new backdoors in this campaign, ‘Biasboat’ and ‘Loadgrip’, alongside other known malware to obtain access, move laterally, escalate privileges and evade detection within victims’ systems. These backdoors are indicative of the group’s focus on developing new and more sophisticated cyber capabilities.
Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian power substations and oil refineries have led to an intensification of Russian physical attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Sandworm’s recent disruptive cyber attacks have likely been in aid of Russian plans to degrade Ukraine’s energy capacity.

FORECAST

Further attacks against the Ukrainian energy infrastructure are likely in the short term. One of Russia’s long-term objectives for the war in Ukraine is to weaken Ukraine’s defence capabilities by undermining its energy resilience. Sandworm’s attacks underscore a pattern of cooperation between the Russian military and Sandworm, whether the latter supplements kinetic operations with cyber attacks. Sandworm is likely to carry out additional operations in the short term, as Russia seeks to retaliate against the latest round of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Sandworm is likely to conduct further disruptive operations against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The group has been responsible for nearly all disruptive cyber attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure since the onset of the war in Ukraine in 2022, suggesting that Sandworm plays a significant role in supporting Russia’s broader military and strategic objectives. In addition, several new backdoors and malware threats have been recently attributed to the group. These tools distinguish themselves through their sophisticated design and advanced obfuscation techniques, further underscoring the group’s commitment to developing their arsenal. We assess Sandworm’s access to these assets heightens the group’s capacity for future attacks against Ukraine. Disruptions to infrastructure and civilian life will likely remain elevated in the short-to-medium term. The destruction caused by cyber and military operations against Ukrainian critical infrastructure has significantly impacted water and energy supplies in the country. As a result, Ukrainian authorities were forced to plan additional power outages to preserve the country’s remaining energy infrastructure by preventing it from being overloaded. Such diversions likely cause further significant disruption and endangerment to civilian life. Inadequate cyber defence and security policies will likely exacerbate security risks as targets grapple with fortifying their protections, likely having knock-on effects on the ability of infrastructure organisations to defend themselves due to ongoing remediation efforts.

*Moldova: Russian attack from pro-Moscow region is highly unlikely despite peacekeeper drills. On 23 April, Russian peacekeepers in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria conducted military exercises to practice repelling attacks targeting peacekeeping forces’ positions. The drills were held in the vicinity of peacekeeping posts near the cities of Bender and Dubăsari, as well as near the settlements of Cocieri, Fîrlădeni and Hagimus (Dubăsari and Căușeni districts). The central Moldovan authorities stated that holding exercises without the necessary co-ordination causes panic among local residents. Tensions between the central Moldovan and separatist Transnistrian authorities have been particularly heightened since the beginning of 2024; Tiraspol appealed to Moscow for ‘protection’ against perceived pressure from Chișinău in late February. The request came amid concerns that Transnistria would ask Russia to annex the territory, which did not materialise – as we assessed. While the drills will likely moderately elevate regional tensions in the short term, a Russian attack against Moldova from Transnistria remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future given Russia’s limited capabilities in the region.

*Ukraine: Suspension of consular services will increase pressure on conscription-age male expats. On 23 April, Ukraine reportedly suspended consular services around the world for military-age male citizens until 18 May, when a new mobilisation law comes into force. The move seeks to prevent draftable Ukrainian men from renewing expiring passports and receiving official documents before the mobilisation law comes into effect. The latest bill takes more significant measures to address Kyiv’s growing military personnel shortages. It reduces the mobilisation age from 27 to 25 (meaning the number of men liable for conscription will grow); it also increases penalties for draft dodging and requires all military-age men (including expats) to register at draft offices (or consular offices) to update their status within 60 days. In November 2023, the BBC estimated that around 650,000 conscription-age men have left Ukraine for Europe since the beginning of the war. The suspension will likely prove moderately effective in prompting conscription-age men to comply with the new legislation, though we assess that many will still seek to avoid military service.

Apr. 23.

*Georgia: Threat of terrorism remains low despite false reports of impending attacks in capital. Earlier on 22 April, Georgia’s State Security Service (SSSG) disclosed that authorities have not identified any explosives in schools and shopping centres in the capital Tbilisi. A Russian-language Telegram channel warned on 21 April of terror attacks against educational institutions in Tbilisi on 22 April; there was also reportedly a list of schools that were supposed targets. The SSSG investigated similar hoax reports in January in Georgia’s second-largest city Batumi (Adjara region). Likewise, authorities did not find any explosives when they conducted investigations of shopping centres and educational institutions in response to these previous reports. The intelligence service linked hoax threats to ‘international online games’ involving minors from various countries – including Georgia. The motive for the latest false reports remains unclear, though there is a realistic possibility that these are a continuation of this trend of false alarms. Ultimately, we continue to assess that the threat of terrorism remains low in Georgia, though further false alarms will likely increase security disruption.

*Armenia-Azerbaijan: Border delimitation progress will likely trigger unrest in Armenia. On 19 April, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed upon delimiting a first section of their border, which will reportedly see Armenia cede four villages from the Tavush region to Azerbaijan. While the agreement was praised internationally by the EU and US, in Armenia it sparked protests from Armenian residents of the Tavush province. The agreement is part of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s efforts to accelerate the resolution of territorial disputes to avoid the resumption of hostilities with Azerbaijan. However, other territorial claims have yet to be addressed and will likely sustain tensions in the short to medium term. It remains unclear when the four villages will be transferred to Azerbaijani control, but it will highly likely trigger anti-government unrest in Tavush and the capital Yerevan. There is also a low to moderate risk that small numbers of the militant Combat Brotherhood organisation will attempt to resist the transfer. This could seriously complicate the transfer process, and could realistically increase the risks of escalation.

*Georgia: Russian entities will continue to facilitate information operations; driving unrest. On 22 April, the Russian National Research Institute for Communication Development (NIIRK), a pro-Kremlin think tank, held an event discussing ‘Traditional Values as a Factor of the Rapprochement of Countries and Peoples’. The event was co-organised with two Tbilisi-based pro-Russian entities and took place during a highly tense domestic situation marked by repeated demonstrations against the re-introduction by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party of a Russian-style foreign agent bill. The NIIRK publishes a yearly ranking comparing neighbouring countries to Russia according to their friendliness towards Moscow. The 2023 ranking shows Georgia as a relatively friendly country, reflecting the improvement of bilateral relations despite the recent history of conflict and Moscow’s backing of the Abkhazia and South Ossetia separatist regimes. Ultimately, entities like the NIIRK will continue to facilitate Russian information and influence operations in Georgia. However, while GD’s cordial relations with Moscow will limit Russian interest in destabilising the country in the short-to-medium term, anti-Russian and anti-government unrest will likely increase in response to the reintroduction of the foreign agent bill.

*Global: New campaign elevates security, cyber espionage risks from Russian state-sponsored actor. On 22 April, the technology company Microsoft revealed that the Russian state-sponsored group ‘APT28’ is exploiting an existing Windows vulnerability (CVE-2022-38028) to target Western organisations. After obtaining access to targeted networks, threat actors deploy a new executable, ‘GooseEgg’, which is masked as a legitimate Windows file. The executable then downloads two additional payloads which enable the threat actor to move laterally, download additional malicious files and achieve persistence within the compromised system. APT28 specifically employed GooseEgg in post-compromise activities against North American, Ukrainian and Western European organisations, including government bodies and non-government actors in the education and transportation sectors. CVE-2022-38028 was first patched by Microsoft in October 2022. The longevity of this vulnerability demonstrates risks stemming from lax patch management policies. APT28 previously conducted an espionage campaign against the Democratic National Committee (DNC) ahead of the 2016 US presidential elections. We assess this elevates security and cyber espionage risks for Western organisations as Russian state-sponsored activities are likely to increase in the upcoming election cycles.

Apr. 22.

*US: Passage of Ukraine aid likely to bolster regional security, decrease tensions with European allies. On 20 April, the House of Representatives passed a USD 95 bn four-bill package that provides security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and allies in the Indo-Pacific region. The package received bipartisan support. That said, the bill concerning Ukraine was opposed by 112 Republican representatives. The fourth bill (which focuses on national security initiatives) includes a measure to ban the app TikTok if its Chinese owner, ‘ByteDance’, does not divest within a year. The Senate will begin considering the package on 23 April. It is likely to pass quickly and to be signed into law by President Joe Biden. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s support for the bills has intensified calls from hardline Republicans to introduce a motion that would force him to vacate, increasing government stability risks in the short term. In the near term, the aid will ease tensions between the US, Ukraine and other European allies. However, we assess that political partisanship and increased attention on November’s impeding elections will likely stall further efforts to pass foreign aid.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: Russian forces are highly likely to intensify offensive operations as well as long-range strikes in a bid to exploit the window of opportunity for further territorial gains before US aid arrives en masse
KHARKIV: The Russian Foreign Ministry indicated that Kharkiv City remains a high-priority war goal, though Russian forces will likely focus on the Donbas while setting conditions for future advances towards Kharkiv
STRIKES: Ukrainian air defences successfully shot down an airborne strategic bomber for the first time, which could influence Russia’s strike planning
FORECAST: US Congressional approval a of USD 61 bn military aid package represents a crucial point for the war in 2024, but it will likely take weeks for materiel to arrive and allow Ukrainian forces to stabilise the frontline
OFFENSIVES: Russian forces are highly likely to intensify offensive operations as well as long-range strikes in a bid to exploit the window of opportunity for further territorial gains before US aid arrives en masse. As such, the battlefield is likely to continue to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces in the intervening time, with Russian forces set to exploit artillery and air defence shortages to set conditions for the expected Russian summer offensive. The Head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov stated earlier on 22 April that Ukrainian forces will face a ‘difficult situation’ by mid-May and early June, but that this will not be ‘catastrophic’. Additionally, Budanov stated on 17 April that Russia will launch a ‘big’ offensive in June, which will reportedly aim to take all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Budanov had previously assessed that the Russian summer offensive would begin in either late May or early June, but it now appears Ukrainian intelligence has moved to a more specific June estimate.
OFFENSIVES: The likely resumption of US military aid to Ukraine will mark a crucial point for the war in 2024, but it will likely take weeks before this aid will influence the battlefield in Ukraine’s favour. Given the current state of the frontline, with growing artillery ammunition and air defence shortages, US aid will most likely allow Ukrainian forces to stabilise the frontline and prevent Russian operationally significant breakthroughs, rather than turn the tide of the war decidedly in Ukraine’s favour. For further analysis, see FORECAST below.
BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue intense offensive operations west of Bakhmut and are setting conditions for an assault on the key Ukrainian defensive strongpoint of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk). The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 21 April that its forces had completely taken the village of Bohdanivka (Donetsk), situated north-east of Chasiv Yar. A Ukrainian National Guard officer fighting in the area confirmed on 21 April that Russian forces have secured positions in Bohdanivka, but it remains unconfirmed whether Russia now controls the settlement.
BAKHMUT: The Ukrainian National Guard officer stated that the outer defences in eastern Chasiv Yar were ‘practically destroyed a year ago’ and that this area is ‘unfit for defence’. If this is accurate, it could indicate that Ukrainian forces will eventually withdraw from the eastern outskirts of the settlement to more defensible positions behind the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal (Donetsk). President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 21 April that Russia will attempt to seize Chasiv Yar by 9 May, Victory Day, though we continue to assess that this remains an ambitious timeframe. In the meantime, Russian forces will continue to set conditions for an eventual assault on the town, with guided glide bomb attacks likely focusing on degrading Ukrainian defences to better facilitate ground operations when they are launched.
BAKHMUT: In the meantime, Russian sources shared footage from 19 April showing Russian Su-25 and Su-34 aircraft flying at low altitudes and striking Ukrainian targets near Chasiv Yar. This is a significant development given Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) aircraft have been unable to operate so close to the frontline thus far. The fact that they are now doing so, seemingly without incurring losses, illustrates the degraded state of Ukraine’s air defences, which are now no longer sufficient to deter Russian close air support operations. Russian sources have claimed that these attacks are facilitating more rapid Russian advances. While the overall rate of Russian gains has remained relatively slow in recent weeks, these attacks are almost certainly having a significant impact on the integrity of Ukrainian defences near Chasiv Yar. The rapid provision of US air defence systems will prove vital in efforts to prevent the VKS from supporting ground forces more directly in the coming months, which would highly likely facilitate more rapid Russian advances west of Bakhmut and the wider Donetsk oblast.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from on 20 and 21 April shows recent Russian advances in eastern Ocheretyne, located eight miles (13km) north-west of Avdiivka (Donetsk). Additional footage posted on 18 April indicates that Russian forces progressed west of Solodke, south-west of Donetsk City.
KHARKIV: On 19 April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Kharkiv city (Kharkiv) ‘plays an important role’ in President Vladimir Putin’s conception of a demilitarised ‘sanitary zone’ to protect Russian border regions. Lavrov’s statement is the clearest statement from Moscow to date that Russian forces intend to take the city, under the justification that a ‘sanitary zone’ will protect Russian communities from Ukrainian strikes. Russian opposition media reported on 22 March alleged Russian plans to recruit 300,000 additional troops to encircle Kharkiv city (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 25 March 2024). Additionally, unconfirmed reports indicate Africa Corps troops could redeploy from Africa to Belgorod oblast, which would bolster Russian forces threatening Kharkiv oblast.
KHARKIV: While the capture of Kharkiv city is almost certainly a medium-to-long-term war goal, Russian forces are likely to prioritise offensive operations in the Donbas (particularly Donetsk oblast) in the short-to-medium term. Nevertheless, it remains a realistic possibility that Russia will increase the tempo of ground assaults in Kharkiv oblast during the anticipated summer offensive to set conditions for future advances towards the city. However, Russia is unlikely at present to have the capabilities to encircle or capture Kharkiv outright in the short-to-medium term – particularly if US aid reaches Ukrainian forces quickly.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Overnight on 18-19 April, Russia launched a medium-scale missile and drone attack involving 36 projectiles. The strike included two Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 12 Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, two Iskandr-K missiles, six Kh-22 cruise missiles and 14 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine’s air defence reportedly intercepted 29 projectiles: two Kh-101/Kh-55 missiles, 11 Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles and all 14 drones. Explosions were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Sumy Oblasts. In Odesa oblast, authorities reported that several missile strikes on 19 April damaged the Black Sea port at Pivdennyi, destroying agricultural products destined for Asia and Africa.
STRIKES: Early on 20 April, Russian forces launched three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, two S-300/S-400 missiles and two Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles. Ukrainian air defences reportedly destroyed the two Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles along with three reconnaissance drones. A missile reportedly struck a residential area in Odesa (Odesa oblast), injuring several local residents; unknown infrastructure facilities were also struck in the oblast. A ballistic missile reportedly hit an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia. Overnight on 21-22 April, Russia attacked Ukraine with seven Shahed-136/131 drones and three S-300/S-400 missiles. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted five Shahed drones and one Orlan drone over the Odesa oblast.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 19 April, Ukrainian forces claimed to have successfully shot down a Russia Tu-22M3 ‘BACKFIRE’ strategic bomber in southern Ukraine. The bomber was reportedly carrying out Kh-22 missile strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed the bomber crashed, though claiming that it was due to a technical malfunction rather than Ukrainian air defences. This is the first instance of Ukrainian air defences shooting down a strategic bomber, with the strike almost certainly carried out with an antiquated S-200 (SA-5) missile. Russia likely operated around 60 Tu-22M3s in 2023. Ukraine’s military Intelligence (GUR) reported that Russia is unable to manufacture further Tu-22M3s.
STRIKES: Tu-22M3 strategic bombers represent an important and likely finite strategic asset, the loss of which could influence Russian operational planning in how it undertakes Kh-22 missile strikes. In recent months, Ukraine has been ramping up attacks against Russian aviation capabilities, including Russian strategic bombers on the ground to degrade Moscow’s striking capabilities. However, despite recent successes, ongoing air defence systems and missile shortages have created major gaps in Ukraine’s air defence network on certain parts of the fronts, allowing Russian aircraft to operate safely, as they seemingly are around Chasiv Yar (see BAKHMUT above).
STRIKES: Ukraine’s GUR reported that overnight on 19-20 April, Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale drone attack targeting Russia’s Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Moscow, Ryazan, Smolensk and Tula oblasts. The GUR explained that the attack focused on energy infrastructure facilities for Russia’s military-industrial complex. Ukrainian media outlets reported that the attack hit several power stations, causing power outages and setting fire to a fuel storage facility.
STRIKES: The intensification of Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure has likely prompted Russian oil producers to take measures reinforcing the protection of their facilities. On 19 April, Russian oil producer Bashneft reportedly installed anti-drone nets to protect key facilities at its refineries from Ukrainian drone strikes. Ukraine has ramped up attacks against oil refineries, which have led Russian authorities to impose restrictions on some fuel exports to mitigate the risk of domestic shortages. US authorities have urged Kyiv to halt such attacks because they are driving global oil prices. While media reports indicate that Ukrainian military authorities have temporarily halted targeting oil infrastructure, they have not been instructed to curb long-range attacks deep into Russian territory. Ultimately, Ukraine will possibly resume strikes against oil infrastructure since they have proven to be highly effective asymmetrical attacks with knock-on effects on Russia’s defence-industrial complex and overall socio-economic resilience.
STRIKES: On 21 April, Ukrainian forces launched an anti-ship missile, successfully damaging the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) Kommuna submarine support ship in Sevastopol (Russian-annexed Crimea). A Ukrainian military official stated that the Kommuna was the only rescue vessel of its class in the Black Sea. The ship has carried out various missions for the BSF, such as participating in sea trials, engaging in rescue operations in the area of the sunken cruiser Moskva and conducting seabed warfare. The strike will likely undermine the Russian BSF’s submarine operations, potentially disrupting the striking capabilities of Russia’s Kalibr cruise missiles.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

APPROPRIATIONS: On 20 April, the US House of Representatives passed legislation that would allow the potential transfer of confiscated Russian assets to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction. Between USD 5-6 bn of the total USD 300 bn of frozen Russian assets are held by US banks. Most of the immobilised capital is in Europe (namely in Belgium, France and Germany). Earlier on 22 April, Russian State Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin warned that Moscow has ‘every reason’ to respond in kind by confiscating Western assets after the House passed the legislation.
APPROPRIATIONS: Volodin also claimed that the House greenlit the law to push the EU to take similar steps, claiming without evidence that this would be ‘devastating’ for the European economy. Volodin’s remarks were almost certainly aimed at deterring European leaders from also using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s benefit. We assess that House approval of the legislation has likely moderately increased the risk of retaliatory confiscations from Russia, though this risk will almost certainly increase if and when the US uses such funds to aid Ukraine.
ASSASSINATIONS: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) disclosed on 18 April the arrest of a Polish citizen who allegedly offered Russia his services to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The SBU said the individual cooperated with Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) and that the suspect, who was detained in Poland, planned to gather and share information about the security of Poland’s Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport (RZE). This would have been to help Russian special services plan a possible assassination attempt against Zelensky on Polish soil. The arrest underscores that there are individuals outside of Ukraine who would be willing to assist in an assassination attempt against the Ukrainian leader, even in states considered to be allies of Kyiv.

FORECAST

AID: On 20 April, the US House of Representatives passed a USD 95 bn national security package which includes almost USD 61 bn in assistance for Ukraine – a likely crucial turning point for the course of the war in 2024. This marks a breakthrough after months of Congressional deadlock after President Joe Biden requested a supplemental security package to fund US allies (including Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine) in October 2023.

The Senate must now vote on the package, and the chamber could realistically pass it as soon as 23 April. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said that the chamber would begin procedural votes on the assistance package on this date. The legislation is unlikely to encounter hurdles in the Senate. The package will then be sent to Biden, who has promised to sign it immediately, which will speed up the process of the aid reaching Kyiv.

Of the Ukraine aid bill, some USD 14bn would be given to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) to procure weapons for Kyiv from US defence contractors. Around USD 23bn would be earmarked for the Pentagon to replenish its military stockpiles of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine. However, this does not necessarily mean that the full sum will be used under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, a process where the US military transfers its own weapons and simultaneously orders new equipment from weapons manufacturers to replenish these stocks. Meanwhile, USD 1.6bn is outlined to compensate for Ukraine’s expenses from ordering US weapons.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the support on 21 April, stating that he believes the assistance will strengthen Ukraine’s armed forces. Zelensky claimed that Ukraine will have a chance of winning the war with this aid. However, the Ukrainian president emphasised that the package must contain materiel that Kyiv needs the most – including artillery and long-range weapons – to increase the likelihood of victory. US Senator Mark Warner said on 21 April that the US could begin transferring long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine within a week after White House approval of the package. At the same time, an unspecified US official said Washington DC would be able to send certain munitions to Kyiv ‘almost immediately’; Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder said the US has a robust logistics network that allows for the movement of equipment very quickly.

Despite such efforts to rapidly transfer US weapons to Ukraine, it will likely take several weeks before the situation on the frontline begins to stabilise and improve for Ukrainian forces. As such, the situation on the frontline is likely to continue to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces in the meantime (see OFFENSIVES above for military analysis). We assess that the aid package alone is highly unlikely to be a silver bullet that will be the decisive factor of a Ukrainian victory, and reflects Ukraine’s fundamental reliance upon Western support to sustain the war effort.

Ultimately, the fact that the Ukrainian frontline has continued to deteriorate in recent months even as Ukraine’s European partners continued to send military aid underscores the oversized influence US aid plays on the course of the war. The protracted Congressional deadlock over the last six months has resulted in widespread Ukrainian artillery and air defence shortages, and, despite European efforts to ramp up support for Kyiv, the current situation confirms that the US is the only power with the capability and resilience to provide Ukrainian forces with the capabilities it needs at scale. This only confirms the importance of the upcoming US presidential election in November, which will to a large extent determine the trajectory of the conflict and Ukraine’s ability to blunt Russian advances. (Source: Sibylline)

26 Apr 24. Spain to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine, minister says. Spain’s defence minister said on Friday Madrid would deliver Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, following pressure from NATO and European Union allies to send more military aid to Kyiv.

Defence Minister Margarita Robles confirmed the planned missile deliveries during a video conference with other countries supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion, her ministry said.

But a ministry statement announcing the decision to send the missiles as well as ammunition, medicine and combat first-aid kits made no reference to any plans by Madrid to send full Patriot missile defence systems to Ukraine.

Spanish media reported Spain would send four missiles but the defence ministry did not say how many would be sent.

Following appeals by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, EU governments have been urged to supply more badly needed defence systems to Kyiv, especially countries such as Spain and Greece that have them in their arsenal.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Thursday that Athens would not be able to offer Ukraine such systems because they were “critical to our deterrent capability”.

Defence is a sensitive issue for Athens given its rivalry with Turkey.

EU ministers said on Monday they were looking at how to provide more air defences to Ukraine but stopped short of making concrete pledges over the Patriot systems that Kyiv values most.

The United States was on Friday hosting a virtual meeting of Ukraine international aid donors, days after Congress approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine.

(Source: Reuters)

26 Apr 24. Biden Administration Announces Historic New Security Assistance Package for Ukraine.

Today, as we commemorate the two-year anniversary of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group led by Secretary Austin, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced a historic new security assistance package to address Ukraine’s ongoing battlefield needs and demonstrate unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine. This package, provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) using funding appropriated by the national security supplemental which the President just signed into law, includes equipment to augment Ukraine’s air defenses, fires, and artillery, and to sustain capabilities previously committed by the United States.

Unlike Presidential Drawdown Authority, which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, including through the $1bn package announced on April 24, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from U.S. industry or partners. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to acquire additional priority capabilities for Ukraine.

The capabilities in this announcement, which totals up to $6 billion, include:

Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Equipment to integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine’s air defense systems;
Counter-UAS equipment and systems;
Munitions for laser-guided rocket systems;
Multi-mission radars;
Counter-artillery radars;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 152mm artillery rounds;
Precision aerial munitions;
Switchblade and Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Tactical vehicles to tow weapons and equipment;
Demolition munitions;
Components to support Ukrainian production of UAS and other capabilities;
Small arms and additional small arms ammunition; and
Ancillary items and support for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities.

This USAI package highlights the strong and unwavering U.S. commitment to meet Ukraine’s most pressing immediate and longer-term capability needs to fight Russian aggression as part of the global coalition we have built with some 50 Allies and partners. (Source: U.S. DoD)

26 Apr 24. Greece rules out air defence systems to Ukraine, prime minister says. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said Greece can not offer air defence systems like ‘Patriots’ or S-300 to Ukraine responding to pressure from EU and NATO allies to send more military aid to Kyiv. With Russia having stepped up air attacks on Ukraine, EU governments are under pressure to supply more protective systems to Kyiv especially countries like Greece and Spain that have such systems in their arsenal.

“Greece is not going to send S-300 or Patriot to Ukraine,” Mitsotakis said in an interview in Skai TV late on Thursday.

European Union ministers said on Monday they were looking urgently at how to provide more air defences to Ukraine but they stopped short of concrete pledges of the Patriot systems that Kyiv values most.

“We were asked and we explained why we cannot do it,” Mitsotakis said adding that these systems are “critical to our deterrent capability.”

Defense is a very sensitive issue for Athens given the tensions with Turkey especially for a conservative government.

Greece has sent to Ukraine in the past thousands of rockets, explosives, IVFs vehicles, high explosive incendiaries, ammunition and anti-tank rockets.

The U.S. will host on Friday a virtual meeting of Ukraine international aid donors, days after Congress emerged from a half-year of deadlock to approve a $61bn aid package for Ukraine. (Source: Google/Reuters)

26 Apr 24. US-donated Abrams tanks have been quickly sidelined in Ukraine amid fears that they are too easy to detect with Russian drones.

While Ukraine is under direct attack, the Abrams M1A1 battle tanks are too difficult for Ukraine to operate smoothly, according to US officials.

The arrival of Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones has changed the status quo on the battlefield.

The proliferation of drones on the Ukrainian battlefield means “there isn’t open ground that you can just drive across without fear of detection,” a senior defence official told AP on Thursday.

Massed armour in an environment where unmanned aerial systems are “ubiquitous” can be at risk, added another expert.

Five of the 31 tanks sent by the US for $10m a piece in 2023 have already been lost to Russian attacks. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

25 Apr 24. US and allies aim to help Ukraine bolster defenses after aid gap.

Summary
U.S. Congress has approved aid package for Ukraine
Ukraine hopes to avert major Russian breakthrough in east
It is unclear how much pressure Kyiv can apply on Russia

The United States hopes its new deliveries of weaponry will help Ukraine rebuild defenses and refit its forces as it recovers from a gap in U.S. assistance, but it does not expect Kyiv to launch large-scale offensive operations against Russian forces in the near term, a U.S. defense official said on Thursday.

The U.S. will on Friday host a virtual meeting of Ukraine international aid donors, days after Congress emerged from a half-year of deadlock to approve a $61bn aid package for Ukraine. President Joe Biden’s administration quickly announced $1bn in artillery, air defenses and other hardware would soon be heading to Ukrainian front lines.

The influx of weapons could improve Kyiv’s chances of averting a major Russian breakthrough in the east, just over two years since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, military analysts say.

But it remains unclear how much pressure Kyiv can apply on Russia after months of rationing artillery as its stocks ran low. Kyiv also faces manpower shortages on the battlefield and questions linger over the strength of its fortifications along a sprawling, 1,000-km (621-mile) front line.

The U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the goal was to enable Ukraine so that its forces would be able to “regain the initiative.” “In terms of what we see in the next several months of operations, Ukrainians will need to rebuild quite a bit to take on board all of these new supplies after having rationed ammunition and other supplies … and ensure that they can defend their positions,” the official said.

“So I would not forecast any large-scale offensive in the near term,” the official said, while expressing optimism that Kyiv would be able to start applying “significantly greater pressure” on Russian forces including in Russian-occupied Crimea.

HALTING RUSSIA’S INITIATIVE

Moscow has had the battlefield advantage since capturing the long-time bastion town of Avdiivka in the eastern Donbas region in February, and its forces have been slowly advancing using greater numbers of troops and artillery shells.

They are now bearing down on the town of Chasiv Yar, located on high ground that, if captured, would bring Moscow closer to the remaining Kyiv-held Donbas cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Zelenskiy said this month that Russia was now able to fire 10 times more artillery rounds than Ukraine’s troops. Russian forces outnumber Kyiv’s troops 7-10 times in the east, a Ukrainian general said this month.

U.S. officials have said for months that new U.S. aid was critical, even if Ukraine might take time to rebuild momentum.

Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a forum at Georgetown University that Kyiv had in the past proved it could use U.S. assistance effectively, and said its troops had recovered half of the territory seized by Russian forces at the start of their invasion.

“Why this aid for Ukraine is so important is because when they’re provided with capability, they’ve been effective,” Brown said.

Biden, a Democrat who is expected to face Republican former President Donald Trump in the November presidential election, had pressed lawmakers for six months to approve more funding for Ukraine.

Trump objected to the Ukraine aid, and some Republicans in Congress refused to back it, questioning whether Ukraine could ever prevail.

The U.S. defense official, briefing a small group of reporters, did not directly address a question about whether allies should do more to soften any future impact from U.S. political volatility on Ukraine aid but expressed optimism about long-term support for Kyiv.

“We’re really pleased to see that we have solid bipartisan support for Ukraine,” the official said. “There has been really very steady support from the allies over the course of the past … year. And we’re foreseeing that support continuing.”

In addition to U.S. aid, the European Union is providing assistance including a Czech-led initiative that will begin supplying Ukraine with some 300,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery shells from June.

Germany also announced plans in April to supply a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system and air defense missiles. (Source: Reuters)

25 Apr 24. Lukashenko talks up threats to Belarus to justify ‘nuclear deterrence.’

Summary
Lukashenko says Belarus faces grave threats
He has deepened military integration with Russia
Opposition dismisses talk of drone strike from Lithuania

April 25 (Reuters) – Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday his country was facing grave threats internally and externally that had required it to change its security posture and allow Russia to deploy dozens of tactical nuclear weapons on its territory.

Lukashenko alleged, without providing evidence, that the Belarus opposition planned to seize a district in the west of the country and request support from NATO troops – an assertion dismissed by the opposition as ludicrous.

Addressing the same meeting, Ivan Tertel, head of Belarus’s KGB security service, said his operatives had thwarted strikes on the capital Minsk by drones launched from NATO-member Lithuania, which denied mounting any such attack.

Tertel also said that Belarusian security was working on a daily basis to thwart what he called constant attempts to smuggle weapons into Belarus from Ukraine “for carrying out terrorist attacks and sabotage”.

Lukashenko, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has frequently talked up the dangers of an attack by NATO or Ukraine as justification for closer military integration with Russia and for maintaining his defence and security apparatus on a constant state of high alert.

He was speaking at a meeting of the Belarusian People’s Congress, a constitutional body of up to 1,200 delegates which was due to approve an updated National Security Concept and military doctrine for Belarus.

State news agency Belta quoted Lukashenko as saying that current realities required changes to the country’s security stance.

“It has acquired a new topic: nuclear deterrence. Those who will push us towards it should know about it and have a rational look at the straightforward consequences of their ill-considered decisions, to put it mildly,” it quoted him as saying.

Russia’s TASS agency quoted Lukashenko as saying “several dozen” Russian tactical nuclear weapons had been deployed in Belarus under an agreement that he and Putin announced last year – the first time Russia has deployed nuclear missiles in a foreign country since the Soviet era.

OPPOSITION DERIDES STATEMENT

The Belarusian opposition, whose leaders are all in prison or have fled abroad, derided Lukashenko’s statement that it wanted to grab a chunk of the west of the country.

“It’s a task for a psychotherapist, I think, to comment on Lukashenko because he’s living in his own world, it seems he is losing the connection to reality,” said Franak Viacorka, a top aide to exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

“This Congress is a desperate attempt somehow to restore his confidence in himself internally but also to show to the outside world that he still has supporters. Of course the easiest way to consolidate his supporters is to create the feeling of an external enemy,” he told Reuters.

Lukashenko was quoted as telling the Congress that the risk of military incidents along his country’s border with Ukraine was quite high.

He said Poland, another western neighbour of Belarus and a NATO member, should not expect aggressive actions from Minsk, but that Belarus had nonetheless moved several combat-ready battalions from the east of the country to the west.

Asked about Tertel’s assertion that Belarus had thwarted strikes by drones launched from Lithuania, Polish Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk warned against giving in to what he called Belarusian and Russian propaganda.

“These people are doing everything to destabilise the European Union and NATO…every message from the side of the Russian Federation or from the side of Belarus should be treated as an element of propaganda, not as an element of facts,” he told a press conference in Warsaw.

“These are not reliable partners, these are not people we should trust, and we should do everything to protect ourselves from them.” (Source: Reuters)

25 Apr 24. Sweden to move ahead with sending troops to Latvia as part of NATO forces. Sweden will move ahead with plans to send troops to Latvia as part of NATO’s deployment in the Baltic countries, which share land borders with Russia and its ally Belarus, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Thursday.

“This morning, the government took the formal decision to assign the armed forces the task of preparing the Swedish contribution to the reduced battalion,” Kristersson told a news conference with his Latvian counterpart Evika Silina.

“The goal is to have this force operational from the beginning of next year.”

The contribution will include armoured vehicles and Leopard tanks, Kristersson added.

The Nordic country joined NATO last month, becoming the military alliance’s 32nd member, abandoning decades of non-alignment in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Sweden had already said it aimed to contribute a reduced mechanised battalion, opens new tab to NATO’s deployment in Latvia as early as next year, troops intended to deter and defend against any attack, but the final decision awaited NATO membership. m(Source: Reuters)

25 Apr 24. National Armaments Directors Maintain Urgency in Support for Ukraine. Ahead of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s second anniversary, National Armaments Directors from UDCG member nations, the European Union and NATO gathered for the 11th time last week in Brussels.

“We’re all seeing how urgent the situation in Ukraine has become, and as emphasized at the recent session of the NATO-Ukraine Council, we must continue to push for immediate, concerted action on Ukraine’s priority requirements,” said William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. “The National Armaments Directors are uniquely positioned to operationalize the guidance set forth by the UDCG at the ministerial level, and we are not — and cannot — let our foot off the gas.”

Focused on synchronizing international procurement, production and sustainment efforts, LaPlante co-chairs the forum alongside his Ukrainian counterpart, Lt. Gen. Ivan Havryliuk. Nearly 50 nations and multinational organizations participated in the session.

Defense officials said the group continues to identify and deliver solutions for Ukraine’s most pressing requirements in key capability areas — including ground-based, long-range fires; air defense systems; and maintenance and sustainment.

“Over the last year, nations have made vital commitments to provide capabilities to Ukraine and the NADs have likewise done a tremendous job getting the appropriate contracts in place,” LaPlante said. “But we’re at a point now where we need to be measuring the output of those efforts — and that means deliveries. As new and expanded production lines become fully operational, it’s imperative we’re making those commitments reality, and quickly at that.”

During the session, the undersecretary praised increases in co-development and co-production ventures — such as production of Patriot guidance enhanced missiles, known as GEM-Ts, in Germany — and called on attendees to replicate the approach.

“Current global demand far exceeds current capacity, so any effort that is enabling economies of scale, production expansion, and the acceleration of capability delivery is welcome,” he said.

Earlier this year, the NATO Support and Procurement Agency awarded a $5.6bn contract to support the procurement of up to 1,000 GEM-T missiles by multiple European nations.

In the U.S., defense officials have said that production of 155 mm artillery ammunition recently surpassed 30,000 rounds per month. Through the opening of a new production facility in Mesquite, Texas, in May and other expansion efforts, output is expected to reach nearly 70,000 rounds per month by the end of year, the officials said. Funding included in the most recent national security supplemental signed by President Joe Biden on April 24 will enable production expansion beyond 100,000 rounds per month.

The security supplemental, worth roughly $95bn in total, includes more than $60bn for support to Ukraine. Following its passage, DOD announced the Biden Administration’s 56th tranche of equipment to be provided from DOD inventories to Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority package has an estimated value of $1bn and includes capabilities to support what a defense official characterized as Ukraine’s most urgent requirements, including air defense interceptors, artillery rounds, armored vehicles and antitank weapons.

The sustainment of forces and systems already donated to Ukraine remains equally important, officials said. During the meeting, leaders from the Ukraine Logistics Command, Security Assistance Group-Ukraine and International Donor Coordination Center provided an update on the maintenance and logistics requirements to keep capabilities in the fight, as well as efforts to reconstitute forces and build additional units.

“Ukraine is at a critical juncture, and anything we can do to increase mission capable rates will increase combat power and operational readiness,” said Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment Christopher Lowman. “Even small percentage improvements in these areas have a direct and significant impact on the battlefield. We must continue to do more.”

Defense officials said the National Armaments Directors remain focused on locating, producing, and provisioning spare parts; enabling equipment such as generators and handling and diagnostics equipment; and subject matter experts to assist with training, telemaintenance and regional maintenance, repair and overhaul, defense officials said. This includes increasing the availability of technical data packages and translated technical manuals to enable repair closer to the point of need.

In support of Ukraine’s long-term success, the group is also augmenting the UDCG’s capability coalitions established at the ministerial level. For the first time, armaments directors from those nations leading capability coalitions provided updates and initial areas for direct engagement.

“If you want to get things done, you have to involve the ,” LaPlante said, “and that’s one of the primary reasons Secretary Austin asked me to convene this forum in support of the UDCG. His leadership has been extraordinary in pulling together this unprecedented group, and we will continue to drive action in any and every way we can.”

Since Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, the United States has committed more than $44.9bn in security assistance. The Department of Defense has obligated on contract more than $13.6bn through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and more than $19.1bn in additional funds to replenish equipment drawn down from U.S. stocks under Presidential Drawdown Authority.

Austin established the UDCG in 2022 to ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities that it needs to defend its people from Russian aggression and take back its sovereign territory. Together, UDCG nations have committed more than $89bn in total security assistance to Ukraine. The group will convene for the 21st time on April 26. (Source: U.S. DoD)

25 Apr 24. U.S.-led Ukraine Coalition to Meet Amid Renewed Momentum.

The U.S.-led coalition of allies that have joined together in backing Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s ongoing invasion will mark the two-year anniversary as nearly 50 countries convene this week.

The 21st meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which the Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III will host virtually from the Pentagon on Friday, comes amid a renewed fervor with Congress’ recent passing of the $95bn national security supplemental measure.

“We’re going into the contact group with new energy and momentum,” a senior defense official said today in previewing the meeting. “With the supplemental, the United States has reaffirmed its leadership in supporting Ukraine, and at the same time we are recognizing allies and partners who are asserting their leadership roles as well.”

The final supplemental funding bill includes $60bn in assistance for Ukraine in addition to urgent assistance for Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists, along with humanitarian support for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and support for key regional partners in the Indo-Pacific.

President Joe Biden signed the measure into law on Wednesday.

In his remarks at the White House ahead of the signing, Biden underscored the imperative to back Ukraine’s defenders who have continued to defy Russia since the country launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

He said Ukraine continues to maintain the “skill and will to win,” and underscored the United States’ commitment to quickly deploy much needed military assistance to Ukraine’s front lines.

“In the next few hours — literally, the few hours — we’re going to begin sending in equipment to Ukraine for air defense munitions, for artillery, for rocket systems and armored vehicles,” Biden said.

The Pentagon announced its first assistance package under the new funding soon after the bill was signed.

The package, which is valued at up to $1bn, is specifically aimed at giving Ukraine the ability to regain the initiative on the battlefield. It includes key capabilities to include air defense interceptors, artillery rounds, armored vehicles and antitank weapons.

The announcement marks the 56th drawdown of military equipment from DOD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

In previewing the upcoming meeting of the UDCG, the defense official said the latest package adds to the flood of support for Ukraine by the broader coalition.

“Collectively, members of the contact group have committed more than $89bn in security assistance since February of 2022,” the official said.

“In recent weeks, we’ve seen allies and partners continue to step up,” the official said. “For example, we’ve seen Czech Republic’s initiative to procure hundreds of thousands of artillery shells from third nations. We’ve seen Germany’s decision to donate another Patriot system and its initiative to donate urgent air defense donations. And we’ve also seen the U.K.’s announcement of its largest single package of military equipment.”

Beyond providing Ukraine with direct military assistance, the UDCG has undertaken initiatives aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s long-term defense through the formation of targeted capability coalitions.

Thirteen members of the contact group are leading eight separate capability coalitions designed to drive Ukraine’s long-term force development. Those coalitions focus on critical capabilities ranging from air defense to artillery.

Several allies have also signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Ukraine, indicating the coalition’s commitment to Ukraine’s success well into the future.

“When Secretary Austin first convened the contact group, he said it reflected a galvanized world,” the official said in previewing the upcoming meeting. “Two years later, that’s still true.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

26 Apr 24. Swiss parliamentary committee backs $5.5bn aid plan for Ukraine. A Swiss parliamentary committee late on Thursday voted to back a 5bn Swiss franc ($5.5bn) aid contribution for Ukraine as part of a broader package aimed at improving neutral Switzerland’s defense capabilities. Supported by lawmakers from centre-left and centre-right parties, the security committee of the upper house of parliament approved the package to provide 10.1bn francs in additional funds for the army, along with the Ukraine sum. The plan, which still faces a series of parliamentary hurdles before it can become law, passed by 8 votes to 5, with right-wing parties opposing the deal. In a statement, parliament said the multi-billion dollar package was conceived as an extraordinary contribution toward the security of Switzerland and “peace in Europe” because of the war being waged by Russia against Ukraine. Switzerland is under pressure from Western allies to do more to help Ukraine even as right-wing nationalists in parliament press for the country to remain strictly neutral. The Ukraine part of the package intends to support the reconstruction and repair of day-to-day infrastructure necessary for life and survival in Ukraine, parliament said. The committee voted through the plan less than two months before Switzerland is due to host a high-level international conference aimed at helping to bring peace to Ukraine. ($1 = 0.9132 Swiss francs) (Source: Reuters)

25 Apr 24. The defence ministers of Poland and Lithuania have pledged to help Ukraine repatriate its men who are of fighting age but have left the country to avoid being sent to the battlefield. Kyiv needs to raise hundreds of thousands of men for its army, which is struggling to contain Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine. But the number of volunteers has dwindled and the government has recently adopted a new law to expand mobilisation, including for those abroad. Poland has emerged as the main haven for those escaping the conflict, with the central bank estimating earlier this year that there may be up to 200,000 Ukrainian men in the country. Ukraine earlier this month suspended consular services for men of military age living abroad, including in Poland, making it harder for them to extend their stay. “Ukrainian citizens have obligations towards the state,” Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Wednesday. “We have long suggested that we are also able to help the Ukrainian side in ensuring that those who are obliged to perform military service go to Ukraine.” He said those Ukrainian nationals would not get an extension of their right to stay in Poland and that they could be deported: “Anything is possible.” According to martial law imposed by Ukrainian authorities in February 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, most men between the ages of 18 and 60 are banned from leaving the country and are obliged to register with military recruitment offices. Lithuania said on Thursday it was ready to take steps to return Ukrainians of fighting age. Defence minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas excluded deportation but said various options could be considered in co-ordination with Poland. “It is possible [to restrict] social benefits, work permits, documents, there are options that I’ve also heard from the Polish side,” he said. “I think it is the correct way.” Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that “staying abroad does not release a citizen from his duties towards his homeland”. “If anyone thinks that some will fight far away on the front and risk their lives for the country, and others will stay abroad and use the services of the state, they are wrong,” Kuleba said. (Source: FT.com)

24 Apr 24. The US quietly shipped long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. The United States in recent weeks secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for use in its battle to fight off Russian invaders, and Ukraine has now used them twice, a U.S. official said on Wednesday. The missiles were contained in a $300m military aid package for Ukraine that U.S. President Joe Biden approved on March 12, said the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official would not say how many of the missiles were sent. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, at a briefing for reporters, confirmed that a “significant number” of the missiles had been sent to Ukraine and said “we will send more.” He said Ukraine has committed to only use the weapons inside Ukraine, not in Russia. Some of the missiles were contained in a $1bn weapons package for Ukraine that President Joe Biden approved on Wednesday, Sullivan said. The missiles were used for the first time in the early hours of April 17, launched against a Russian airfield in Crimea that was about 165 km (103 miles) from the Ukrainian front lines, the official said. The official said Ukraine used the weapon a second time overnight against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine.Whether to send the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) with a range up to 300 km was a subject of debate within the Biden administration for months. Mid-range ATACMS were supplied last September.

The Pentagon initially opposed the long-range missile deployment, fearing the loss of the missiles from the American stockpile would hurt U.S. military readiness. There were also concerns that Ukraine would use them to attack targets deep inside Russia.

Russia’s use of North Korean-supplied long-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine in December and January, despite U.S. public and private warnings not to do so, led to a change in heart, the U.S. official said.

Also a factor in U.S. decision-making was Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, the official said.

“We warned Russia about those things,” the official said. “They renewed their targeting.”

In late January the U.S. military found a way to satisfy their concerns about military readiness, which enabled the administration to move forward. They began acquiring new missiles coming off the Lockheed-Martin (LMT.N), production line.

Biden met with his national security team in mid-February and agreed to accept the unanimous recommendation of his advisers to send the missiles to Ukraine. Involved in the discussion were national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman C.Q. Brown. The challenge at that point was to figure out how to pay for the missiles. The United States had exhausted all of its funding options and congressional gridlock stymied further aid. An opportunity arose in March, when several Pentagon contracts came in under bid. Biden was able to use the difference to send $300 m in assistance to Ukraine. Biden told his team to include the long-range ATACMS in this funding package, but to do so secretly in order to maintain operational security and the element of surprise for Ukraine, the official said. (Source: Reuters)

25 Apr 24. Ukraine is set to increase long-range attacks inside Russia as an influx of western military aid aims to help Kyiv shape the war “in much stronger ways”, the head of the UK military has said. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin acknowledged the downbeat mood surrounding Ukraine’s defence in an interview with the Financial Times, admitting the country was facing a “difficult” fight to repel advancing Russian forces. But Britain’s chief of defence, a key figure in the west’s military support for Kyiv, stressed that such a gloomy “snapshot” of the war failed to recognise longer trends more in Kyiv’s favour. He said these included the latest packages of military aid from US and Europe, Ukraine’s increasingly successful long-range strikes, and Moscow’s “total failure” to choke off Kyiv’s vital grain exports via the Black Sea. “The danger with any snapshot is that it [ignores] where we are now with where we will be in next couple of years,” Radakin told the FT, adding people should stop “feting Russia” and believing it “somehow has got major advantages”. During an almost six-month hiatus over US funding for Kyiv that only ended this week, Russian forces have continued to pound Ukraine with heavy artillery, missiles and drones while making some limited territorial gains. To seize back the initiative against Moscow’s larger army, Ukrainian commanders have pleaded with the west to provide more long-range, “high-tech weapons”. Kyiv has also attempted increasingly ambitious strikes inside Russia against production facilities and energy infrastructure. In a significant boost for Ukraine, Washington dropped its reservations about giving Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, secretly sending a batch earlier this month with a 300km range. Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, on Wednesday said more will be sent now “that we have additional authority and money . . . I believe they will make a difference”. But, after a drawn out debate, US President Joe Biden still directed his White House team to ensure the longer-range system was “for use inside Ukrainian sovereign territory”. Radakin, by contrast, expressed no apparent qualms over Ukrainian attacks and sabotage raids inside Russia. “As Ukraine gains more capabilities for the long-range fight . . . its ability to continue deep operations will [increasingly] become a feature” of the war, Radakin said, adding: “they definitely have an effect”. The UK government has pledged this week to increase defence spending from about 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent of national income. In addition, it has raised military aid to Kyiv to £3bn a year and, crucially, signed long-term contracts with defence industry suppliers. “You can moan about why this [the long-term contracts] did not happen earlier, but some things take time,” he said. In a side swipe at environmental, social and governance investment guidelines, he added: “the notion that investing in the UK defence industry is unethical, is offensive”. Recommended Gideon Rachman Ukraine is the front line of a much larger conflict Radakin said these long-term supply contracts had allowed the UK’s defence ministry to dig deep into its own stockpiles and hand over more capabilities to Kyiv — including more than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as another tranche of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles. After months of uncertainty over the west’s strategy in Ukraine, Radakin spoke with optimism about a situation where all Nato countries are “talking about spending more money”. But even Ukraine has cast the latest round of support as largely helping to stabilise a deteriorating position. “I recognise that this is all less comfortable if you are in Kyiv,” Radakin conceded. “You also have to acknowledge that Russia has been able to conduct more effective long-range strikes than last year.” Radakin also pushed back at criticism that the west had no overarching “glorious plan” as to how to help Kyiv achieve victory and had instead only given it enough military aid to forestall defeat. “Don’t expect anyone to say publicly ‘this is the plan’ and A, B and C are now going to happen,” Radakin said. Some elements of Ukraine’s military approach “will be hidden . . . some will be dictated by a tactical or operational advantage, and some also depends on more foundational aspects”, he said. Some of these factors “mature much more strongly next year than this year”, Radakin said. But they “will enable Ukraine to shape [the fighting] in much stronger ways than it has before”. (Source: FT.com)

24 Apr 24. Jeremy Hunt marks military support for Ukraine on visit to Kyiv.

Mr Hunt discussed £500m of new funding and munitions for the country in its fight against Putin’s Russia with the President and counterpart Sergii Marchenko.
Boosts Britain’s military aid for Ukraine to £3bn this year and by at least as much each year going forward, alongside its commitment to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence spending by 2030.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv today, 24 April, to reaffirm Britain’s support for Ukraine for as long as is required to its leaders.

The Chancellor met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko to offer his support and hear how Ukraine plans to utilise new equipment due from the UK. During their meeting, President Zelenskyy told Mr Hunt that the “crucial” support was “very important” to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the £500 m of new military aid for Ukraine this week, alongside the UK’s largest ever donation of critical munitions like missiles and air defences. It takes Britain’s military support for Ukraine to £3 bn this financial year, on top of the £4.6 bn already committed since Russia’s illegal invasion began. That level of support will be sustained for as long as is required.

Speaking from Kyiv, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said:

War in Ukraine has raged on for longer than many feared, but today I saw that the resolve of its people remains absolute. The onus is now on its friends to pile the pressure on Putin and help restore peace and prosperity in Europe – we’re determined to play our leading part.

Ukraine’s security is our security, and the bns in funding and equipment Britain has provided to date is just the start of a longer-term commitment to supporting them in their struggle with Russia for as long as it takes.

During their meeting, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine told Mr Hunt:

I want to thank you, your team, government, Prime Minister, Parliament and people of the United Kingdom that you are with us – with Ukraine – from the first days of full-scale war. We count on you. We are real partners.

Whilst on the ground, the Chancellor visited Saint Michael’s Square with Minister Marchenko and laid flowers at the memorial to the soldiers killed in Russia’s war of aggression. He also visited St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery and lit a candle in their memory.

The UK has consistently been a first-mover in its support for Ukraine and the government has this week moved to shore up the support Ukraine needs for the long-haul, with a new assurance to maintain current levels of support for as long as is necessary. This represents the longest-term commitment of any other nation, coming on top of the 100-year alliance forged by the UK-Ukraine Security Pact.

That started with the £500m of new military funding for Ukraine being unveiled by the Prime Minister on his visit to Warsaw on Tuesday, where he met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to discuss support for the country. The funding will support the highest priority capabilities, including scaling of UK drone innovation and support so the UK becomes the largest provider of drones to Ukraine.

With the economy turning the corner and inflation near its lowest level in two-and-a-half years, it was also announced that the government will steadily increase defence spending to £87 bn a year at the end of the decade, thereby hitting 2.5% of GDP by 2030. It secures Britain’s place as the largest defence power in Europe and second biggest contributor to NATO by some margin.

If all NATO partners matched that commitment to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence, our collective spending would increase by over £140 bn. Mr Hunt used his visit to Ukraine to urge allies to step up and match that benchmark.

Commitments made this week mean the UK’s total military, humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine now totals over £12bn since the advent of war in February 2022.

Additional information

The record donation of military equipment to Ukraine being made by the Ministry of Defence includes:

60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns.
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
Nearly 4m rounds of small arms ammunition. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

24 Apr 24. Brown: DOD ‘Moving Out’ to Get Aid to Ukraine. The Defense Department is moving quickly to provide much-needed military assistance to Ukraine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., said today.

Speaking after President Joe Biden signed the national security supplemental budget request into law, Brown said the Pentagon has continued to lean forward as the $95 bn measure made its way through Congress.

“What we do in the Department of Defense is plan,” Brown said during a keynote discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Global Security Forum in Washington. “And we plan a lot.”

He added that the Pentagon is “well postured with the authorities” needed to quickly provide Ukraine with munitions.

“We’re moving out,” he said. “We’ll get capability to Ukraine as quickly as possible.”

Biden requested the additional funding in October. The House passed the measure over the weekend, and it cleared the Senate on Tuesday.

The final bill includes $60bn in assistance for Ukraine, as the country continues to defend against Russia’s ongoing invasion. It also includes urgent assistance for Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists, along with humanitarian support for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and support for key regional partners in the Indo-Pacific.

In remarks at the White House before he signed the measure into law earlier today, Biden announced that the U.S. would send a fresh round of military aid to Ukraine within hours.

The Pentagon announced its first assistance package under the new funding soon afterward. The package, which is valued at up to $1bn, includes key capabilities to include air defense interceptors, artillery rounds, armored vehicles and antitank weapons.

The announcement marks the 56th drawdown of military equipment from DOD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Brown underscored the importance of ensuring Ukraine has the assistance it needs to defend itself against Russia’s invasion.

“Think about what Ukraine has been able to do when they’ve been resourced,” he said. “Early in the conflict, they were able to take back 50% of the territory that they lost after Russia’s initial invasion against a much more capable force.”

He added that Ukraine’s success is critical for global stability.

“What happens in one part of the world doesn’t stay in one part of the world,” he said. “We’ve seen that via history, and I think what we’re collectively doing in support of Ukraine is important.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

24 Apr 24. The Ukrainian army has come under rare criticism from military analysts for allegedly bungling up a troops rotation that allowed Russia to capture 5km of land, highlighting the strains Kyiv’s forces are under as they await the arrival of fresh US aid. Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group with ties to the defence ministry, on Wednesday said the Russian advance late last week in the southern part of the village of Ocheretyne had been caused by a rotation that left the area unprotected. The criticism comes a day after the US Senate approved a $61bn aid package for Kyiv which was delayed for months, forcing Ukrainian troops to ration their ammunition on the battlefield. The first arms shipments are expected in the coming weeks, with Russia vowing to intensify its attacks in the meantime and the Ukrainian leadership also acknowledging the difficult days ahead. “The leadership of the 115th Mechanized Brigade is responsible for the collapse of the defence in the entire area, which led to significant casualties,” Deep State wrote in a report. That brigade was supposed to move in and relieve the more experienced 47th Brigade, but it failed to move in time, leaving the area unprotected. A spokesperson for the 115th Brigade denied the allegations. “All I can say is that it’s not true, the unit did not abandon its position,” Vadym Chornyy said. Rotating out exhausted troops and bringing in new units are notoriously sensitive manoeuvres as they are being targeted by Russian suicide drones, artillery strikes and powerful glide bombs. Small mistakes in timing can result in parts of the frontline being left undermanned. “Rotations can cause problems, this is something we’ve seen before,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst monitoring the war for the Finland-based Black Bird Group. “We don’t know exactly what happened in this case but whatever mistake it was, the Russians were able to exploit it and Ukraine lost ground without a significant fight.” Ukrainian forces still control most of the village, said Nazar Voloshyn, another military spokesperson, but admitted that the situation in the area was “difficult”. Russian forces were now looking to set up a bridgehead around Ocheretyne “in order to launch further military operations”, Voloshyn said on Wednesday. Recommended The FT ViewThe editorial board Ukraine’s desperate need for air defences The Russian advance threatens defensive lines hastily raised by Ukrainian forces after the fall of Avdiivka, 15km south-east of Ocheretyne, in February. A Russian foothold in the village “puts our units south of the Russian advance in a very uncomfortable position”, Mykola Melnyk, a former commander of the 47th Brigade, wrote on Tuesday. Deep State said on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces were able to stop further Russian advance towards the village of Progres, 8km west of Ocheretyne. (Source: FT.com)

24 Apr 24. Biden Administration Announces Significant New Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, following the passage of the national security supplemental which the President just signed into law, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced a significant new security assistance to urgently meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-sixth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories to Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package has an estimated value of $1bn and includes capabilities to support Ukraine’s most urgent requirements, including air defense interceptors, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
105mm artillery rounds;
60mm mortar rounds;
Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
Logistics support vehicles;
Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Precision aerial munitions;
Airfield support equipment;
Anti-armor mines;
Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Night vision devices; and
Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

This package will surge munitions, weapons, and equipment forward to support Ukraine’s ability to defend its frontlines, protect its cities, and counter Russia’s continued attacks. With the bipartisan support of Congress, Ukraine can count on strong and resolute U.S. leadership to provide consistent security assistance support – together with some 50 Allies and partners – to ensure its brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

24 Apr 24. ‘Now go win the fight’: US Congress passes Ukraine aid after months of delay. A sweeping foreign aid package easily passed the U.S. Congress late on Tuesday after months of delay, clearing the way for bns of dollars in fresh Ukraine funding amid advances from Russia’s invasion force and Kyiv’s shortages of military supplies.

The Senate approved by 79 to 18 four bills passed by the House of Representatives on Saturday, after House Republican leaders abruptly switched course last week and allowed a vote on the $95bn in mostly military aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and U.S. partners in the Indo-Pacific.

The four bills were combined into one package in the Senate, which President Joe Biden said he would sign into law on Wednesday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was grateful to U.S. lawmakers for approving “vital” aid for Ukraine.

“This vote reinforces America’s role as a beacon of democracy and leader of the free world,” Zelenskiy said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

The largest provides $61bn in critically needed funding for Ukraine; a second provides $26bn for Israel and humanitarian aid for civilians in conflict zones around the world, and a third mandates $8.12 bn to “counter communist China” in the Indo-Pacific.

A fourth, which the House added to the package last week, includes a potential ban on the Chinese-controlled social media app TikTok, measures for the transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine and new sanctions on Iran.

Biden’s administration is already preparing a $1 bn military aid package for Ukraine, the first sourced from the bill, two U.S. officials told Reuters. It includes vehicles, Stinger air defense munitions, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems, 155 millimeter artillery ammunition, TOW and Javelin anti-tank munitions and other weapons that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield.

The Senate’s Democratic and Republican leaders predicted that Congress had turned the corner in putting Russian President Vladimir Putin and other foreign adversaries on notice that Washington will continue supporting Ukraine and other foreign partners.

“This national security bill is one of the most important measures Congress has passed in a very long time to protect American security and the security of Western democracy,”

Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told a news conference after the vote.

The aid package could be the last approved for Ukraine until after elections in November when the White House, House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for grabs.

Much of the opposition to the security assistance in both the House and Senate has come from Republicans with close ties to former U.S. President Donald Trump, a Ukraine aid skeptic who has stressed “America First” policies as he seeks a second term.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, a strong advocate for assisting Ukraine, expressed regret about the delay, largely due to hardline Republicans’ objections to adding more to the $113 bn Washington had authorized for Kyiv since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

“I think we’ve turned the corner on the isolationist movement,” McConnell told a news conference.

Some of the Ukraine money – $10bn in economic support – comes in the form of a loan, which Trump had suggested. But the bill lets the president forgive the loan starting in 2026.

‘NOW GO WIN THE FIGHT’

The influx of weapons should improve Kyiv’s chances of averting a major breakthrough in the east by Russian invaders, although it would have been more helpful if the aid had come closer to when Biden requested it last year, analysts said.

Schumer said he left a message for Zelenskiy on Tuesday night, telling him, “OK, we got it done. Now go win the fight.”

It was not immediately clear how the money for Israel would affect the conflict in Gaza. Israel already receives bns of dollars in annual U.S. security assistance, but it more recently has faced its first direct aerial attack by Iran.

Aid supporters hope the humanitarian assistance will help Palestinians in Gaza, which has been devastated by Israel’s campaign against Hamas to retaliate for Oct. 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people.

Gaza health authorities say the campaign has led to the deaths of more than 34,000 civilians in the Palestinian enclave.

It was the second time this year that the Democratic-led Senate passed security aid for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific. The last bill, more than two months ago, garnered 70% support in the 100-member chamber from Republicans and Democrats. But leaders of the Republican-controlled House would not allow a vote on the foreign aid until last week.

The legislation’s progress has been closely watched by industry, with U.S. defense firms up for major contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other U.S. partners.

Experts expect the supplemental spending to boost the order backlog of RTX Corp (RTX.N), along with other major companies that receive government contracts, such as Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), General Dynamics (GD.N), and Northrop Grumman (NOC.N).

The House passed the Ukraine funding by 311-112, with all “no” votes coming from Republicans, many of whom were bitterly opposed to further assistance for Kyiv. Only 101 Republicans voted for it, forcing Speaker Mike Johnson to rely on Democratic support and prompting calls for his ouster as House leader.

However, the House left Washington for a week-long recess, without triggering a vote to remove Johnson. (Source: Reuters)

24 Apr 24. Moscow’s “Shadow Fleet” Allegedly Engaged in Espionage in the Baltic Sea. Ewa Skoog Haslum, the Chief of the Swedish Navy, has indicated that Russia may be using its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers to conduct espionage activities in the Baltic Sea. The fleet is characterized by older vessels often lacking proper insurance and frequently changing flags, and has been under surveillance by the Swedish Navy. The vessels are suspected of housing communications and signals equipment not typical for standard cargo ships, which could potentially be used for intercepting communications or other forms of intelligence gathering. In an interview with Swedish public broadcaster SVT, Haslum detailed findings of unusual equipment on these ships, such as antennas and masts uncommon on commercial vessels, hinting at possible covert operations. The shadow fleet has been a tool for Russia to circumvent international sanctions imposed on its oil exports following its actions in Ukraine. The sanctions include a price cap on Russian oil, which the shadow fleet helps to bypass by conducting ship-to-ship transfers of oil at sea, away from direct oversight. The fleet’s operations, involving older and poorly maintained tankers, increase the risk of oil spills. This concern is shared by regional stakeholders like Denmark, which has been contemplating measures to inspect and potentially block these vessels from transiting through its waters, as they often lack the Western insurance required under international shipping standards. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

23 Apr 24. Biden urged to send ATACMS along with air defense systems to Ukraine. President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday the U.S. will send badly needed air defense weaponry once the Senate approves a massive national security aid package that includes $61bn for Ukraine.

Zelensky said in a posting on X that Biden also assured him that a coming package of aid would also include long-range and artillery capabilities.

Ukraine is awaiting U.S. Senate approval after the House this weekend approved the $95bn package that also includes aid for other allies. It comes after months of delay as some Republican lawmakers opposed further funding for Ukraine and threatened to oust Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., if he allowed a vote to take place.

Kyiv badly needs new firepower as Moscow has stepped up its attacks against an outgunned Ukraine. The Senate is expected to vote on the package this week, and Biden has promised to quickly sign it into law.

Zelenskyy said he and Biden also discussed “Russia’s air terror using thousands of missiles, drones and bombs” including a strike on the Kharkiv TV tower just minutes before they spoke.

“Russia clearly signals its intention to make the city uninhabitable,” Zelenskky said

Russia has exploited air defense shortages in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, to pummel the region’s energy infrastructure and harm its 1.3m residents. Some officials and analysts warn it could be a concerted effort by Moscow to shape conditions for a summer offensive to seize the city.

The White House in a statement confirmed that Biden told Zelenskyy “that his administration will quickly provide significant new security assistance packages to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield and air defense needs as soon as the Senate passes the national security supplemental and he signs it into law.”

“President Biden also underscored that the U.S. economic assistance will help maintain financial stability, build back critical infrastructure following Russian attacks, and support reform as Ukraine moves forward on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration,” according to the White House.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan delegation of U.S. Congress members on Monday met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. The delegation included Reps. Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J., Nathaniel Moran, R-Texas, Bill Keating, D-Mass., and Madeleine Deane, D-Pa.

Kean told reporters “we know that the needs of Ukraine are urgent” and U.S. aid is “crucial to stem the tide of Russia’s assaults.”

Kean said Biden should use the authority in the bill to quickly deliver to Ukraine the weapons that it has requested, including the longer-range Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS.

Zelenskyy said that he discussed with the U.S. lawmakers Ukraine’s need for artillery shells, long-range missiles, electronic warfare equipment, unmanned aerial vehicles, combat aviation and support in developing the Ukrainian defense industry.

They also discussed Ukraine’s bid to eventually join NATO, U.S. participation in an international conference in Switzerland in June aimed at charting a path toward peace in Ukraine, and other issues. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/C4ISR & Networks/AP)

23 Apr 24. Lithuania sends L-39ZA light attack aircraft to Ukraine pilots. The platform is deployable as a trainer aircraft, but it has also been used for strategic reconnaissance and as light ground combatant support. Ukraine received Lithuania’s latest round of military assistance on 20 April 2024, in which the Baltic nation offered its only L-39ZA Albatros, manufactured by Aero Vodochody. This disassembled Albatros comes as the latest form of aid to Ukraine, which the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence (MoND) says has reached over €1bn ($1.06bn) to date. Among other types of assistance, Lithuania has provided much-needed 155mm ammunition, M577 armoured personnel carriers, drone jamming equipment, power generators, thousands of Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle rounds, and much more. The MoND also leads a significant coalition working group tasked with de-mining Ukrainian land, which the World Bank claims a full de-mining package will cost over $37bn; this is significantly more than the land is actually worth According to the MoND, this Albatros aircraft has offered its pilots more than 20 years of training, “with an emphasis on their combat readiness for adverse weather conditions during any part of the day”. The L-39 Albatros is a two-seat, single-engine aircraft that entered service in the Czechoslovakian Air Force in 1974. It was the first airplane to be powered by turbofan engines and was later upgraded to the L-59 Super Albatros. It is a versatile jet trainer that can also provide strategic reconnaissance and light-ground combatant support. L-39ZA is an armed variant based on the L-39ZO – a weapon trainer aircraft capable of carrying a 1,150kg payload. The ZA variant is fitted with a 23mm Gsh-23L twin-barrelled cannon – which can fire munitions at a rate of 150 rounds per minute – and it also carries K-13 or R-60 air-to-air missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force will have no problem incorporating this platform into its force structure as the service also operates an unknown number of Albatros units. The air force posted an image of two units taking flight on 16 April on the social media platform X. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

23 Apr 24. Russia has threatened to step up its attacks on logistics centres and storage facilities for western weapons in Ukraine, in Moscow’s first direct response to the passage of US military aid for Kyiv. Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that his country had “dispelled the myth of the superiority of western weaponry” as his forces held the initiative along the frontline and were advancing against outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces. “Our high combat potential allows us to constantly rain fire on the enemy and stop him from holding the line of defence,” Shoigu said in his first response since the US House of Representatives last week passed a long-delayed bill allocating $61bn in military aid for Ukraine. Russia would continue to increase production of its own advanced weaponry “in accordance with the threats posed by the US and its allies”, he said. While Ukraine waits for the US Senate and President Joe Biden to approve the aid, both of which are expected to happen in the next few days, Russian forces have continued to pound Ukraine with missiles, drones and heavy artillery and have made some limited territorial gains. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted on Saturday that his country “did lose the initiative” while awaiting for US military assistance. But he said that the injection of new arms and ammunition would give his struggling army “the chance to stabilise the situation”. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov on Monday said that the fight would only get tougher, with Russian forces intensifying their attacks through mid-May in what he described as a “comprehensive operation”. A blunder during a recent rotation of Ukrainian forces has allowed Russian troops to make a swift 5km gain on the battlefield and move towards Ukraine’s newly fortified defensive line, according to Ukrainian military analysts. The situation unfolded in the village of Ocheretyne, west of the Russian-controlled city of Avdiivka, which fell in February. “Unfortunately, the enemy managed to take advantage of the situation,” wrote Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group close to the defence ministry. Its map on Tuesday showed much of Ocheretyne under Russian forces’ control, something of great concern to Kyiv. “If the enemy manages to capture Ocheretyne, they will bypass the northern flank of the new Ukrainian defence line, which runs down along the Durna river,” the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Kyiv-based security think-tank, wrote in an assessment. “Russian command is pushing to keep up momentum on the Avdiivka front,” it said, adding that Moscow had brought reinforcements from other parts along the frontline to back up the troops advancing towards Ocheretyne. North of Ocheretyne, up to 25,000 Russian forces were focusing much of their efforts on capturing the strategic town of Chasiv Yar, said Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s ground forces in the east. (Source: FT.com)

23 Apr 24. IAEA concerned by increasing drone threats to nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been informed about a further attempted drone attack on the training centre of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), causing no damage or casualties, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. This is the third reported attack targeting the training facility this month. The ZNPP, which is currently under Russian control, told the IAEA team stationed at the site that the drone reported on April 18 had been “neutralised”, without giving further details. The IAEA team said they heard an explosion at the same local time, 10:35am, as when ZNPP subsequently reported the attempted drone attack took place. The team was denied access to the training centre just outside the ZNPP site perimeter to assess the incident, with the plant citing potential security risks. A series of drone attacks have significantly deepened concerns about the already precarious nuclear safety and security situation at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, located on the frontline of the conflict.

“So far, the drone strikes have not compromised nuclear safety at the site. But, as I told the United Nations Security Council a few days ago, these reckless attacks must cease immediately,” Director General Grossi said.

IAEA experts have been monitoring the plant since Director General Grossi established a permanent presence there in September 2022 to help prevent a nuclear accident during the military conflict. Whilst all reactors are now in cold shutdown, nuclear safety and security remains fragile. IAEA will therefore continue to monitor the plant. (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

23 Apr 24. British Intelligence Reports Misleading Recruitment of Migrant Workers by Russia for Frontline Duty. According to recent information released by the UK Ministry of Defense on Twitter, Russia has been engaging in deceptive practices to recruit foreign citizens into its military, specifically targeting migrants with offers to join “special” units. The reality, however, is that these individuals are being sent to regular units on the frontline in Ukraine. The ministry highlighted a recruitment leaflet that promises potential recruits a monthly salary of $2,200, a $2,000 initial payout, and benefits including Russian citizenship, free medical services, and education. These advertisements have been distributed not only in Russian but also in English, aimed at attracting foreign nationals. In 2023, Russia expanded its recruitment efforts to include online job postings that specifically targeted citizens of neighboring countries such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, offering a monthly salary of $1,973 and additional payouts of $5,140. There have also been reports throughout the year of recruitment activities aimed at migrants from Central Asia residing within Russia, and more recently, migrants from India and Nepal have been recruited. The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that many of these recruits are likely not professional soldiers but migrant workers who have been coerced into fighting, either through false pretenses or financial incentives. The ministry suggests that the actual number of foreign citizens fighting for Russia in Ukraine is relatively small and that these individuals are typically integrated into regular military units. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

22 Apr 24. German Vice Chancellor Opens Quantum Systems Factory in Ukraine. Quantum Systems, a German drone manufacturer, opened a drone factory and development hub in Ukraine on April 18. Quantum Systems is the company behind advanced Vector reconnaissance drones, 212 of which have been provided to Ukraine by the German government.

Continuous commitment to support Ukraine

Quantum Systems attracted attention at an early stage of the war of aggression by Russia with its engagement for Ukraine. The company is expanding this commitment with the new local production facility. The European drone champion from Munich, Germany has been supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the delivery of its reconnaissance drones and operates a local service, support, training and logistics center with 25 Ukrainian employees. They train drone pilots and implement technological advancements in the reconnaissance systems directly on site.

The Quantum Systems Vector reconnaissance drones have been in use in Ukraine since May 2022. So far, 212 systems have been made available through the German Enablement Initiative. By the end of the year, a total of 500 Quantum Systems reconnaissance drones are expected to have been delivered to Ukraine. The new production facility is expected to increase production capacity to up to 1,000 drones yearly including spare part production.

Investing up to 6m Euros

The new plant will be the company’s second site in Ukraine and is expected to employ around 100 people by the end of the year. Quantum Systems is investing up to 6m euros over the next two years. For the company, this is a vote of confidence in Ukraine and its employees there, and at the same time a sign of the company’s own commitment to providing Ukraine with long-term support in the defence of its country.

Quantum Systems currently produces as a dual-use company with around 250 employees at three locations for the civil and public sector. The production facility in Ukraine is the fourth plant among a total of seven locations worldwide.

Dr. Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action

Ukraine has trusted our systems since the beginning of the war. With our own plant, we want to express our trust in Ukraine and our conviction that the future of drone technology is being written here. Florian Seibel, CEO, Quantum Systems

About Quantum Systems

Quantum Systems specializes in the development, design, and production of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS). The company’s range of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) sUAS are built to maximize range and versatility and provide operators with a seamless user experience. By integrating cutting-edge software capabilities like edge computing and real-time AI-powered data processing, Quantum Systems builds next-generation UAS for security, defence, public safety, commercial and GIS operations customers across the globe.

Quantum-Systems is a global company, founded in 2015 and headquartered at Special Airport Oberpfaffenhofen, 20 km west of Munich, with business locations in the United States, Australia and Ukraine. (Source: UAS VISION)

23 Apr 24. Ukrainian Special Ops Neutralize Russian Artillery with HIMARS Strike. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO), operating under the 73rd Maritime Center, have reported a successful strike against a Russian 152-mm self-propelled gun, known as Hyacinth-S or 2S5. This artillery piece was engaged and destroyed using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) provided by the United States.

The operation occurred in the southern frontline regions where the Russian gun had been active against Ukrainian forces. The SSO conducted reconnaissance operations that identified the enemy artillery’s position. After acquiring and verifying the coordinates, they were relayed to a nearby Ukrainian Defense Forces artillery unit that executed the strike.

The video evidence released on Telegram by the Ukrainian forces shows the destruction of the artillery piece, although the quality of the footage made it difficult to confirm the exact model of the equipment destroyed. Independent verification of the video’s date and location has not been confirmed, as reported by the Kyiv Post.

The Hyacinth-S is designed primarily for counter-battery fire, capable of destroying enemy firing points, field fortifications, and armored artillery. The gun has a high initial velocity muzzle brake that allows for a maximum firing range of up to 27,000 meters with standard ammunition and up to 40,000 meters with active-reactive projectiles. It is also compatible with a range of specialized 152mm ammunition. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

23 Apr 24. UK to announce largest-ever military aid package to Ukraine on visit to Poland.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will announce the largest-ever military aid package to Ukraine on his visit to Poland.

PM to travel to Poland and Germany to cement security, trade and diplomatic ties with key European allies
He is expected to announce a £500 m boost for Ukraine and largest-ever provision of vital munitions, including some 400 vehicles, 1,600 munitions and 4 m rounds of ammunition
PM to discuss the threat from Russia and UK efforts to support European security with Prime Minister Tusk and the Nato Secretary-General in Warsaw

The Prime Minister will travel to Poland today [Tuesday 23 April] to announce a massive uplift in military support for Ukraine, including £500 m in additional military funding and our largest-ever delivery of vital equipment.

He will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to discuss deepening UK-Poland relations, and the leaders will hold talks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Warsaw on European security and support to Ukraine. The Prime Minister will then travel on to Germany to meet Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin.

Ukraine is facing an existential threat as Russia continues its barbaric invasion, risking the security and stability of all of Europe.

The £500 m additional funding announced today – which takes us to £3 bn in UK military aid for Ukraine this financial year – will be used to rapidly deliver urgently-needed ammunition, air defence, drones and engineering support. The drones will be procured in the UK and the funds will support a scale-up in domestic defence supply chains.

The Ministry of Defence will also send our largest-ever single package of equipment from the UK, designed to help push back the Russian invasion on land, sea and air. It includes:

60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
Nearly 4 m rounds of small arms ammunition.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said:

“Defending Ukraine against Russia’s brutal ambitions is vital for our security and for all of Europe. If Putin is allowed to succeed in this war of aggression, he will not stop at the Polish border.

“I am in Warsaw today to deepen ties with our Polish partners and commit critical new military support for Ukraine’s defence. Ukraine’s armed forces continue to fight bravely, but they need our support – and they need it now. Today’s package will help ensure Ukraine has what they need to take the fight to Russia.

“The United Kingdom will always play its part at the forefront of European security, defending our national interest and standing by our Nato allies.”

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “This record package of military aid will give President Zelenskyy and his brave nation more of the kit they need to kick Putin out and restore peace and stability in Europe. The UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles, the first to give modern tanks and the first to send long-range missiles. Now, we are going even further. We will never let the world forget the existential battle Ukraine is fighting, and with our enduring support, they will win.”

In his first in-person meeting with new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister will also seek to deepen UK-Poland ties across a range of issues.

Building on existing strong defence and security cooperation, he will offer to deploy an RAF Typhoon Squadron to carry out Nato Air Policing over Poland next year.

To further boost trade and support UK companies looking to invest in Poland, the Prime Minister will also announce today an intention to triple UK Export Finance funding available for Poland from £5 bn to £15 bn – our most generous offer to a partner country to date.

Bilateral trade between the UK and Poland has doubled in the last decade to reach £30.6bn, with 45m bottles of Scotch whisky bought in Poland last year and UK firms bidding for £5bn worth of Polish opportunities across energy, defence, healthcare, and infrastructure. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

22 Apr 24. EU ministers stop short of Patriot pledges for Ukraine. European Union ministers said on Monday they were looking urgently at how to provide more air defences to Ukraine but they stopped short of concrete pledges of the Patriot systems that Kyiv values most.

Since Kyiv began a push for more Patriots in recent weeks, Germany has been the only EU country to pledge an extra battery.

Other European countries including Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain and Sweden also have Patriot systems.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed frustration at the lack of additional pledges, saying he was trying to “make everybody understand and be aware” of the need to do more to help Kyiv.

“I don’t have Patriots in Brussels, the Patriots are in the capitals. And it’s up to them to take the decisions,” Borrell said after the meeting.

With Russia having stepped up air attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and cities, EU governments are under pressure to supply more protective systems to Kyiv.

The EU ministers said the U.S. House of Representatives vote to approve a $60 bn Ukraine package on Saturday should not lead to any complacency on their part.

But countries that have U.S.-made Patriots – which Ukraine already uses and values highly for their ability to shoot down fast-moving ballistic missiles – were non-committal on Monday.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Ukraine needs at least seven Patriot or other high-end air defence systems to counter Russian air strikes.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after the EU ministers’ meeting on Monday that Kyiv is in talks with individual allies on the supply of four Patriot batteries.

“Negotiations are underway between us and the relevant countries and the USA”, Kuleba told the national broadcaster, without naming the countries.

Officials say it is hard to part with Patriots as they are an integral part of national defences.

Swedish Defence Minister Pal Jonson said Stockholm had already agreed to give air defence weapons, including the RBS 70 portable system.

Asked if Sweden would also provide Patriots, he said: “I don’t exclude that possibility but right now we’re focused on a financial contribution but also possibly (more) RBS 70 because that could alleviate some of the pressure on the Patriots.”

Greece has long resisted sending larger-scale defence systems or jets to Ukraine, mainly because of its own tensions with Turkey, although it has sent arms and ammunition.

Asked if Greece was planning to send S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine, government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis said in Athens: “There won’t be any move that would even minimally endanger the country’s deterrent capability or air defence.”

Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said the so-called Ramstein group of countries that supply military aid to Ukraine would meet at the end of the week. That meeting would provide another opportunity for governments to announce pledges. (Source: Reuters)

23 Apr 24. Ukraine launches military charm offensive as conscription flags.

Summary
Ukraine launches centres for volunteers to join military
Potential recruits can choose roles and other terms
Ukrainian forces outnumbered and outgunned by Russia
Some military units have own recruitment programmes

Far from the trenches, at orderly new centres across Ukraine, civilian recruiters armed with laptops and info packs offer patriotic volunteers opportunities to join the war.

As Ukraine’s efforts to conscript enough men to fight Russia are stymied by public scepticism, defence officials and military units are embarking on a multi-pronged charm offensive to recruit a citizens’ army to resist the invasion.

This softer call-up is being conducted on job-search sites and outreach centres, as well as billboards and social media, and offers a wartime novelty: an element of choice.

Candidates can select their precise unit and roles suiting their skills, for instance, as well as how long they will serve.

On city streets, billboards of Ukrainian soldiers implore citizens to join up and defend their homeland, offering QR codes for convenience. Online, the 93rd Mechanised Brigade assures countrymen that “Everyone can do it!” in a glossy video campaign showing civilians, such as a chef and tractor driver, switching to analogous army roles as battlefield cook and tank driver.

Natalia Kalmykova, a deputy defence minister, said military planners recognised that in a democratic country, giving people some choice could be key in attracting them to the military.

“The people who come to defend our country now are not those who chose the military as their career: it’s civilians,” she said during an interview in Kyiv. “And civilians are used to being able to choose.”

Kyiv is desperate to replenish its drained and depleted forces, which are vastly outnumbered and outgunned by Russia along a 1,000-km front as the war enters a third grinding year.

00:28UK parliament passes Rwanda asylum law

The initial patriotic flood of volunteers who flocked to the army following the invasion of February 2022 has dried up. The government has acknowledged its conscription drive has run into difficulties, with thousands of people evading the draft and some seeking to flee abroad rather than risk the trenches.

A mobilisation law that comes into force next month obliges men to update their draft data with authorities, although it was stripped of tough punishments for draft evaders after a public outcry.

Reuters is the first news outlet to detail the extent of the defence ministry’s outreach plan, designed to combat public distrust about enlistment and plug a gaping hole in the military by offering recruits a greater sense of control over their fate.

Thirteen of the new recruitment centres have been opened since mid-February and the government plans to expand the number to 30 by the middle of the year, said Oleksiy Bezhevets, a ministry adviser who is overseeing the drive.

At the first centre, in Lviv, about 300 people visited in the first month, Bezhevets said, without specifying if any signed up. The defence ministry is also working with four private recruitment companies to fill military vacancies, he added.

He conceded the plans were no “magic pill” for the military, though he said the range of roles needing to be filled was so broad that it didn’t matter so much what people chose.

“The main goal is to give people the opportunity to conquer their fears and enter into the military sphere,” said Bezhevets. He was among more than a half-dozen people involved in the new drive for voluntary recruits who were interviewed for this article, also including recruiters and service members.

Michael Kofman, a military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank, said the recruitment drive was positive for the army but would not be a decisive solution to a severe shortfall of troops that could only be fully addressed by mobilisation.

“It likely needs hundreds of thousands of men to sustain the fight – in particular infantry, which few are likely to volunteer for, because it’s the most likely combat arm to suffer casualties,” he added.

MARINES TO MILITARY INTELLIGENCE

Ukraine’s conscription effort, launched in the wake of the invasion, has been hampered by local media reports of corruption, official abuse and administrative incompetence. Social media has been flooded with clips of officers corralling men off the street or barging into homes.

Common concerns about military service include inadequate training, poor commanders and the fact that there is no cap on the length of service, according to a February poll, by Kyiv-based research agency Info Sapiens for media outlet Texty.org.

In the survey of 400 army-eligible men, only 35% said they were prepared to serve if called up.

“Somewhere, at some stage, trust was lost,” said Bezhevets, the defence ministry adviser. “Right now, our task is to renew it.”

Ukraine does not release figures on conscripts or voluntary recruits, which it deems sensitive information. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy nonetheless acknowledged shortcomings in mobilisation when he fired the heads of regional draft offices last August citing reports of corruption and official abuse.

Bezhevets said the goal of the defence ministry’s recruiting campaign was to triple the number of volunteers who join up. In the longer term, he added, at least a third of Ukraine’s armed forces should be staffed through voluntary recruitment.

As part of the hunt, the defence ministry has begun working with four leading job-search sites over the past six months, said Bezhevets, adding that so far around 100,000 applicants in total had replied to more than 10,000 vacancies advertised.

Lobby X, one of the sites, offers a user-friendly platform that allows jobseekers to search through military branches, from the marines to military intelligence, and categories of jobs, from artillery gunner to cook or press officer.

Like any ordinary job postings, the vacancies list responsibilities, requirements and benefits including monthly pay, which ranges from around $500 to $3,000. And voluntary contracts can be signed for specific terms starting from three years, or until the end of martial law.

The goal, said Lobby X CEO Vladyslav Greziev, is to allow people to choose the exact unit they want to serve with and maximise the use of their skills.

“Getting good weapons is great, but it’s all used by people,” he said.

CAMOUFLAGE BUSINESS CARDS

In March, Kyiv’s top general said the military would need to mobilise fewer people than the initial target of up to 500,000 more Ukrainians, in part because of volunteers.

“We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters.”

The official recruitment push has been matched on the ground by military units reaching out directly to civilians.

A handful of brigades and smaller units are launching or stepping up their own public relations drives, with more billboards promoting individual units springing up across towns and cities.

Among the most prominent is the elite Third Separate Assault Brigade, which has honed its recruiting tactics over the course of a war in which it has excelled on the battlefield.

The all-volunteer outfit has become renowned for its sleek social media presence, which includes gripping first-person videos from the front and frequent speaking appearances by larger-than-life fighters with colourful stories to tell.

Reuters accompanied some members on a leg of a multi-region tour of Ukraine last month aimed at promoting the brigade, educating civilians on military service and recruiting members.

At a social services centre in the central Ukrainian city of Kropyvnytskyi, brigade soldiers took turns fielding questions from passers-by and prospective recruits, and offered them spots on a free training course to test their mettle.

In two days in Kropyvnytskyi, about 20 people agreed to attend the week-long course, according to one of the soldiers who goes by the call sign “Loft”, a heavily tattooed fighter who carries camouflage business cards with his personal number.

At a high school across town, two other burly fighters regaled the young teenage crowd with comedy, but also warned of war’s grim realities and emphasized the importance of discipline and preparation.

One of them, who introduced himself by his call sign Bull, said the brigade’s distinct nationalist ideology means its success in attracting recruits may not be easily replicable. But frequent and honest outreach would be key to making military service a desirable path for more Ukrainians as the war drags on, he added.

“We’re playing a long game.” (Source: Reuters)

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